LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY June 24, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. LDP-M-30. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #LDP-M, $28/year. A consolidated subscription to all of the livestock, dairy, and poultry reports (34 issues/year) is also available as stock #LDP-A, $66/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Second-Half Herd Liquidation Less Certain Although grazing conditions have improved in most areas, rebuilding of hay stocks is more uncertain, particularly where drought continues in the Southwest. However, the same rains that are improving the forage outlook are increasing the uncertainty for replenishing grain stocks this year. Without some relief from high grain prices, even with improved forage supplies, many cattle producers will be forced to cull more cows from the herd as feeder cattle prices will remain under pressure. USDA's corn harvest estimates have declined from 9.375 billion bushels in May to 9.125 billion bushels in June. The latest estimate, while up nearly 25 percent from 1994's 7.374 billion bushel harvest, indicates that ending stocks will remain very tight. The June projected average farm price of corn for 1996/97 is $2.90 to $3.30 per bushel about unchanged from this year. The price of corn in Central Illinois was averaging near $4.80 a bushel in mid-June and little reduction in corn prices is expected until at least early fall. Producers in the extensive earlier drought areas, particularly those with fall calving enterprises weaning calves in the spring, have already sharply culled their herds in an effort to maintain base breeding herds for future production as forage supplies improve and grain prices decline. First-half cow slaughter was up about 13 percent, with slaughter remaining unusually high in the second quarter, up 19 percent. Beef cow slaughter was up about 27 percent, while dairy cow slaughter rose about 10 percent. Second-quarter cow slaughter is expected to be the largest since 1986 and unless slaughter slows dramatically in June, as grazing improves, could be the largest since 1978. January 1 cow herd inventories in 1978, 1986, and 1996 were 49.6 million, 44.9 million, and 44.7 million head, respectively. In 1978 and 1986, herd liquidation was already several years in progress. The latest cattle cycle, which began in 1990, may have peaked in 1996. Only slightly more than one-fourth of the calf crop is born in the second half of the year, with calves weaned and cows culled in the spring. The remaining producers, those calving in the first half of the year, have been implementing breeding decisions in late spring through mid summer for next year's calf crop. These same producers will be weaning their calves and making culling decisions later this summer and fall. Even with improving forage conditions, unless grain prices decline more than currently expected, feeder cattle prices will remain under pressure, resulting in at least some losses to cow-calf producers until at least second-half 1997. Increased culling will help provide supplemental income while reducing cash cost exposure, particularly if hay stocks remain tight. Second-quarter beef production is now estimated up about 5.5 percent from a year earlier as both fed cattle marketings and cow slaughter remains large. Heavy placement weights and a widening premium for Choice over Select beef, is resulting in steer and heifer slaughter weights remaining above a year earlier, which are expected to continue. Beef supplies this summer are expected to decline about 2 percent from the very large levels of last year, but are still well above 1990-94 levels. Cow slaughter is expected to remain above a year earlier, but stronger slaughter cow prices suggest that improved forage conditions may be reducing slaughter from the very large first-half levels. However, cow slaughter could increase even further if weather conditions result in deteriorating forage or grain prospects. Cattle prices have strengthened since early spring lows, but will remain under pressure. Additional fed cattle price strength will be difficult until fall when supplies begin to decline seasonally. Retail prices for Choice beef have declined, with prices likely to continue down in June with large total beef supplies making for attractive specials, particularly against the tighter than expected pork supplies at higher retail prices. The All fresh retail beef price, which includes Choice beef, has declined since late fall reflecting the larger supplies of lower quality beef in the market. Exports remain strong and large domestic supplies of lower quality beef continue to discourage imports. Excess slaughter capacity and strong export and domestic demand for higher quality beef continues to result in larger imports of fed cattle from Canada. Largest year-to-year increases are for heifers which usually grade better at lighter weights. While imports from Canada are up, imports from Mexico are down dramatically. Reduced feeder cattle imports and sharply increased calf slaughter are helping to hold down feeder cattle supplies, even as feedlot placements continue to decline. Tighter feeder cattle supplies and stronger fed cattle prices will provide at least some support for feeder cattle prices, but they will likely remain at a discount to fed cattle prices. Higher Hog Prices Boost Producers' Returns Rising hog prices in first-half 1996 more than offset increasing feed costs, boosting producers' returns. However, moderating hog prices in June coupled with continuing rising feed costs, are cutting returns sharply. Uncertainty about the 1996 corn and soybean crops still being planted, the expected feed costs decline later this year is less likely and along with expected lower hog prices could squeeze producers' returns. Hog and pork prices in first-half 1996 averaged above earlier expectations due to tighter than anticipated supplies and strong demand from both domestic and foreign markets. Pork production in the second quarter fell short of the levels indicated by the reported size of the September-November 1995 pig crop. Slaughter as a percentage of the pig crop was about 91 percent, compared with 96 in the 2 previous years. The Hogs and Pigs report to be released on June 28, will provide additional information about the inventory levels and pig crops. Retail composite pork prices during the first 5 months averaged 9 percent above a year ago. Farm-to-retail price spreads averaged 2 cents lower over the same period. Although hog prices are expected to decline in second-half 1996, retail prices will likely average near first-half levels as the spread widens. Domestic market demand was boosted by increased bacon use in a number of fast food products and a surge in Japanese imports. U.S. international trade in pork and hogs has been dominated by two issues this spring: When Japan will impose the Safeguard mechanism (SG), and the dramatic increase in U.S. hog imports from Canada. The Uruguay Agreement allows Japan to increase pork import prices by 24 percent on July 1, if total April-May pork imports exceed 152,000 tons (335 million pounds). Because Japanese government data indicate that pork imports in April alone were more than 130,000 tons (287 million pounds), an SG is anticipated July 1, or somewhat later. One factor that could delay the SG is the reduced supply of domestically produced pork, due to disease problems. The U.S. imported 630,000 head of hogs from Canada in first-quarter 1996, up from 316,000 a year earlier. Canadian hogs are coming south because of high U.S. prices, favorable exchange rates, lower U.S. Countervailing Duties, and freer hog markets in Canada, that have recently become less dependent on provincial marketing boards. The US is expected to import almost 3 million hogs in 1996, compared with 1.75 million last year. Broiler Prices Very Strong Wholesale whole broiler prices were 15-20 percent above a year ago during May and early June due to strong exports and slower production growth. Parts prices have also increased during May and June from both April and a year-ago levels. Leg quarter prices have shown the most strength as export sales are recovering after the disruptions in the Russian market. The only exception to the stronger prices is for wings which continue to be priced 20-25 percent below last year, due to the disruption of the Chinese market. First-quarter 1996 broiler production was 7 percent higher than last year. This increase was larger than had been expected because the increase in bird weights was greater than anticipated. April production also increased strongly and was about 5 percent higher when adjusted for the number of slaughter days. Hatch during April was nearly unchanged from last year. Increases in bird weights are expected to keep production higher on a weekly basis during June even if bird numbers are about the same. Second quarter production is expected to increase about 4 percent. Turkey Production Increasing Second-quarter turkey production is expected to increase nearly as strong relative to last year as the 6 percent increase seen in the first quarter. Increases in the number of birds slaughtered continue to run higher than would be indicated by the increases in poult placements reported in earlier months. The strong production increases are surprising given high feed costs, about 40 percent above June 1995, and indications that net returns to producers are considerably below breakeven. Wholesale hen turkey prices have been about 5 cents per pound above last year for the first 5 months of 1996. For June, the differential is expected to narrow, and slower price increases later this year are expected to bring prices below last year by the fall. Turkey wing and drumstick prices are well above last year, indicating strong export sales. Egg Prices Strong Egg prices continue to be 15-20 cents per dozen above last year at the wholesale level and 20-25 cents per dozen higher at retail, even as higher production is being moved through the market. Strength in both the domestic and export markets are probably contributing to the higher prices. Production during the second quarter is expected to increase about 2 percent, primarily because of a larger flock size. The age of the flock will limit productivity increases. For the year, production is expected to be about 2 percent larger than in 1995. Egg trade with Canada is continuing to show a net inflow of egg products to the U.S. in order to make up for lower egg product production during the first quarter of 1996. Exports of shell eggs to Canada are also well below last year through May. Poultry Exports Strong in First Quarter U.S. exports of poultry meat, eggs, and egg products continued to surge in first-quarter 1995. The increase in exports is driven primarily by repeated strong sales to Russia and surrounding countries. A resurgence in Mexico's demand for U.S. poultry products has also boosted exports. First-quarter broiler exports totaled 1.075 billion pounds, 23 percent higher than the previous year. Shipments to Hong Kong were down, and exports to Japan were flat, but these were more than offset by higher sales to Russia and other Eastern European countries. Exports to Russia were up 44 percent and accounted for 43 percent of all broiler exports. Exports to Poland rose from 13 million pounds in 1995 to 37 million pounds in 1996. First-quarter 1996 shipments to the Baltic countries of Estonia and Latvia were up by 8 million pounds. Exports of other chicken products reached 39.4 million pounds in first-quarter 1996, 97 percent higher than a year earlier, as shipments to most countries rose. Exports to Russia totaled 7.6 million pounds, up from less than 1 million the previous year. Exports to Canada and Mexico were also robust, with first-quarter shipments more than doubling. Exports to Hong Kong and Japan, two of the traditionally largest markets, registered double-digit increases. First-quarter turkey exports totaled 95.8 million pounds, up 62 percent from first-quarter 1995 and only 7 percent less than in all of 1991. Strong growth in exports to Mexico (up 15 percent) and Russia (up 732 percent) more than offset lower shipments to Korea, Hong Kong, and Canada. Exports were also up considerably to Poland. Although the year-over-year increases are expected to moderate in the second half of 1996, turkey exports are forecast at 400 million pounds, up 15 percent from 1995. Egg and egg product exports rose to 59.3 million dozen, 30 percent higher than in first-quarter 1995. The majority of the increase stems from higher shipments, mostly of egg products, to Mexico (up 177 percent). Exports to Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates, and the European Union (EU) also were higher. Exports to the EU rose as prices for breaking eggs were very strong. Eggs can be imported into the EU without a tariff if they are processed and the products are exported. With no EEP sales expected in the second and third quarters, export increases should be smaller, with most of the increase coming from high sales of egg products. Strong Demand Boost Milk Prices Strong cheese demand, good domestic use of butter and nonfat dry milk, and butter export agreements made last winter resulted in sharply higher milk and dairy product prices this spring, as milk production dipped below a year earlier. Prices probably will be fairly strong during the rest of 1996, even though a downward adjustment is expected this summer. Wholesale prices may be very unsettled in coming months, particularly for butter. Farm milk prices are projected to rise about $1.50 per cwt in 1996. Autumn increases from a year earlier are not expected to match the $2 of spring and summer but will be substantial. The recent elimination of the producer assessment for deficit reduction will further raise the effective price to producers. Higher milk prices are projected to easily outpace the 1996 increase in costs of grain and other concentrates. Higher returns are expected to hold year-to-year declines in milk cow numbers to about 1 percent, even though high alfalfa hay prices in the West have slowed expansion there. High grain prices and availability concerns probably will have a greater effect on milk per cow. Producers will continue to be conservative about concentrate feeding and cautious in their use of bovine somatotropin (bST). Milk per cow in 1996 is expected to rise only slightly more than 1 percent on a daily average basis, even though second-half 1995 was weakened by weather. Tight domestic markets and weakening international markets will result in smaller 1996 exports. New agreements for commercial butter exports are highly unlikely until near yearend. Subsidized exports of dry milks and cheese will continue during the rest of 1996, but volumes may be modest. Principal Contributors (202) 219-1285 Leland Southard (Coordinator), Milton Madison (Poultry), Dave Harvey (Poultry Trade), Ron Gustafson (Cattle), Mildred Haley (Pork Trade), Jim Miller (Dairy), LaVerne Williams (Statistics). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------Annual Forecasts 1994 1995 1996 1997 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 6,605 6,740 6,862 7,033 CPI-U, Annual % Change 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 Unemployment rate, % 5.8 5.6 5.8 5.8 3-Month T Bill,% 5.1 5.5 4.8 4.7 10-Year Bond,% 6.2 6.0 5.7 5.8 Production, million lb. Beef 24,278 25,115 25,602 25,975 Pork 17,658 17,812 17,664 18,350 Broilers 23,847 25,021 26,509 27,900 Turkeys 4,992 5,129 5,420 5,450 Total Red Meat & Poultry 71,796 74,071 76,177 78,616 Eggs, mil doz. 5,266 5,244 5,359 5,375 Milk 153,626 155,643 156,425 157,900 Commercial use (mf basis) 150,196 155,013 156,966 159,000 Net removals (mf basis) 4,812 2,148 231 600 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 67.0 67.4 67.3 67.0 Pork 53.1 52.4 50.8 52.2 Broilers 69.8 69.7 72.9 75.9 Turkeys 17.8 17.9 18.5 18.5 Total Red Meat & Poultry 211.5 211.3 213.0 217.1 Eggs, number 238.6 234.5 237.3 235.3 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 68.84 66.24 62-64 63-68 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt. 77.72 68.03 59-61 61-67 Brk Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 42.51 35.58 39-41 34-36 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cwt 40.03 42.35 50-53 46-50 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb.. 55.70 56.38 57-59 52-57 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb.. 65.65 66.35 66-68 64-69 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 67.25 72.85 75-78 71-76 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 13.03 12.74 14.0-14.5 13.1-14.1 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 12.01 11.83 13.0-13.5 12.0-13.0 U.S. Trade, million lb.. Beef & veal exports 1,611 1,821 2,122 2,250 Beef & veal imports 2,368 2,104 2,058 2,025 Pork exports 531 770 915 965 Pork imports 743 664 616 605 Broiler exports 2,875 3,895 4,285 4,555 Turkey exports 281 348 400 405 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 Quarterly 1994/95 Forecasts QI'95 QII'95 QIII'95 QIV'95 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,702 6,709 6,763 6,784 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.1 3.4 2.0 2.4 Unemployment rate, % 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 6.0 6.0 6.1 5.9 Production, million lb.. Beef 5,888 6,325 6,625 6,277 Pork 4,488 4,394 4,240 4,690 Broilers 6,147 6,356 6,182 6,336 Turkeys 1,196 1,297 1,289 1,347 Total Meat 17,993 18,617 18,555 18,906 Eggs, mil doz. 1,314 1,297 1,286 1,347 Milk (mf basis) 38,941 40,520 38,325 37,857 Commercial use 37,643 39,306 39,336 38,728 Net removals 1,046 749 242 111 Consumption, Retail lb.. Beef 16.3 17.1 17.6 16.4 Pork 13.1 12.9 12.7 13.7 Broilers 17.5 18.1 17.2 16.9 Turkeys 3.6 3.9 4.2 6.2 Total Meat 51.5 53.1 52.6 54.1 Eggs, number 59.2 58.0 57.8 59.5 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 71.51 64.70 62.65 66.10 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 72.62 65.77 66.17 67.55 Brk Cows,S. Falls 39.58 37.18 34.93 30.61 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 38.56 38.91 48.75 43.19 Broiler,12 City 51.70 53.50 60.70 59.60 Turkeys, Eastern 59.80 61.10 68.70 75.80 Eggs, New York 65.20 63.60 75.20 87.40 Milk, all at plant 12.57 12.23 12.40 13.77 Milk, M-W 11.68 11.23 11.62 12.80 U.S. Trade, million lb.. Beef/veal exports 368 452 499 502 Beef/veal imports 572 540 539 453 Pork exports 187 194 199 190 Pork imports 173 167 154 170 Broiler exports 873 856 1,019 1,147 Turkey exports 59 83 90 116 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 QI'96 QII'96 QIII'96 QIV'96 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,806 6,841 6,881 6,922 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8 Unemployment rate, % 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 3-Month T Bill,% 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7 10-Year Bond,% 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.8 Production, million lb.. Beef 6,302 6,575 6,475 6,250 Pork 4,389 4,150 4,400 4,725 Broilers 6,609 6,650 6,600 6,650 Turkeys 1,270 1,350 1,400 1,400 Total Meat 18,849 18,960 19,096 19,272 Eggs, mil doz. 1,334 1,325 1,325 1,375 Milk (mf basis) 39,125 40,500 38,500 38,300 Commercial use 37,866 40,300 39,500 39,300 Net removals 31 100 100 Consumption, Retail lb. Beef 17.0 17.2 17.0 16.1 Pork 12.5 11.8 12.8 13.7 Broilers 17.8 18.7 18.3 18.1 Turkeys 3.7 3.9 4.5 6.4 Total Meat 51.9 52.5 53.4 55.2 Eggs, number 59.1 58.5 59.1 60.6 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 63.06 60-61 60-64 63-67 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 58.11 56-58 59-63 62-66 Brk Cows,S. Falls 32.52 30-30 33-35 62-66 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 46.23 55-56 53-57 45-49 Broiler,12 City 56.20 61-62 57-61 51-55 Turkeys, Eastern 64.80 65-66 64-68 68-72 Eggs, New York 89.60 78-81 68-72 65-69 Milk, all at plant 13.83 14.0-14.3 14.4-15.0 14.0-14.9 Milk, M-W 12.67 13.5-13.8 13.3-13.9 12.6-13.5 U.S. Trade, million lb.. Beef/veal exports 452 535 560 575 Beef/veal imports 508 500 550 500 Pork exports 221 250 230 214 Pork imports 144 157 148 167 Broiler exports 1,075 1,020 1,050 1,140 Turkey exports 96 88 96 120 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 QI'97 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,968 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.9 Unemployment rate, % 5.7 3-Month T Bill,% 4.8 10-Year Bond,% 5.8 Production, million lb.. Beef 6,100 Pork 4,475 Broilers 6,850 Turkeys 1,250 Total Meat 18,937 Eggs, mil doz. 1,325 Milk (mf basis) 38,900 Commercial use 38,200 Net removals 200 Consumption, Retail lb. Beef 16.1 Pork 12.6 Broilers 18.6 Turkeys 3.9 Total Meat 52.1 Eggs, number 57.9 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 65-71 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 58-62 Brk Cows,S. Falls 34-36 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 46-50 Broiler,12 City 52-56 Turkeys, Eastern 58-62 Eggs, New York 66-72 Milk, all at plant 12.9-14.0 Milk, M-W 11.9-12.9 U.S. Trade, million lb.. Beef/veal exports 475 Beef/veal imports 500 Pork exports 242 Pork imports 154 Broiler exports 1,150 Turkey exports 87 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 LIVESTOCK PRICES Jun-95 Apr-96 May-96 Jun-96 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 63.91 59.85 59.78 61.60 Nebraska Direct 63.74 59.49 59.72 61.60 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 40.03 34.44 33.63 35.10 Utility boning 36.13 29.58 29.03 32.35 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb.. 74.19 59.30 58.44 61.75 600-650 lb.. 68.94 56.90 58.19 61.50 750-800 lb.. 67.06 53.10 56.03 61.25 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb.. 67.75 49.33 48.63 52.75 700-750 lb.. 63.75 49.08 52.50 57.50 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 42.79 50.47 57.91 55.25 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 43.28 50.27 58.22 55.50 Sows 6 Markets 30.21 37.86 43.84 44.00 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb.. (per hd.) 30.16 33.92 32.00 29.00 Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 81.63 83.10 86.17 98.00 Ewes, Good 35.06 35.80 29.38 33.00 Feeder lambs, Choice 82.63 98.65 100.75 102.50 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES Jun-95 Apr-96 May-96 Jun-96 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 2.68 4.47 4.86 4.70 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 4.72 6.50 6.92 6.10 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 160.40 249.33 244.27 238.00 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 91.60 94.50 102.00 NA Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 86.50 90.30 97.10 NA /* Estimates MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - Jun-95 Jun-96 Apr-96 May-96 Jun-96 /* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 12,213 12,977 2,153 2,303 2,219 Veal 152 173 28 30 25 Pork 8,881 8,510 1,484 1,413 1,225 Lamb 150 137 25 21 17 Total red meat 21,396 21,797 3,690 3,767 3,486 Broilers 12,503 13,217 2,208 2,300 2,100 Other chicken 260 259 45 44 41 Turkeys 2,494 2,660 441 499 450 Total poultry 15,257 16,136 2,694 2,843 2,591 Total meat & poultry 36,653 37,933 6,384 6,610 6,077 Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 17,471 18,612 3,112 3,329 3,203 Steers 9,100 9,428 1,589 1,721 1,707 Heifers 5,019 5,395 879 935 907 Beef Cows 1,555 1,917 329 360 304 Dairy Cows 1,459 1,526 253 247 224 Bulls and stags 338 349 62 66 61 Calves 683 821 131 137 121 Sheep 2,400 2,130 393 325 272 Hogs 47,868 45,848 8,034 7,633 6,530 Barrows & gilts 45,536 43,628 7,647 7,250 6,170 Sows 1,868 1,866 334 320 300 Broilers 3,697,616 3,792,549 629,046 660,000 625,000 Turkeys 133,120 140,793 23,251 26,000 24,550 Jun-95 Mar-96 Apr-96 May-96 Jun-96 /* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 708 708 699 699 699 Calves 225 212 219 220 216 Sheep 63 67 66 66 65 Hogs 186 185 186 186 186 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 359.1 362.6 347.3 335.6 302.8 Pork 434.9 385.5 352.9 385.5 382.0 Bellies 77.9 46.4 47.7 57.2 64.4 Hams 85.5 54.9 35.7 61.6 79.1 Total chicken 526.3 668.2 699.9 706.2 658.7 Turkey 536.3 423.1 445.4 514.5 575.4 Frozen eggs 18.1 16.2 12.4 11.5 11.4 /* Estimates RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS May-95 Mar-96 Apr-96 May-96 Retail prices Cents/lb.. Beef - Choice 282.2 275.8 279.3 276.6 Beef - All Fresh 261.5 255.9 253.6 249.7 Ground Beef 132.2 137.5 135.4 131.9 Rib roast 504.0 505.0 485.1 473.3 T-bone steak 593.1 566.1 584.0 582.1 Pork 191.0 209.7 208.6 213.6 Bacon 191.8 220.2 224.2 234.5 Chops 312.2 331.7 333.8 334.2 Picnic 110.2 119.3 119.9 118.6 Chicken - Composite 143.3 144.2 146.4 149.1 Whole, fresh 89.1 93.3 94.7 94.9 Breast - bone in 200.5 191.4 197.6 201.8 Leg quarter 114.1 121.7 121.2 123.4 Turkey; whole frozen 102.7 106.9 101.4 104.3 Eggs, Grade A, Large 81.9 113.8 108.6 102.1 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 152.2 155.7 156.3 156.6 All food 148.3 151.6 152.3 152.0 All meat 134.7 137.6 136.9 136.4 Beef & veal 134.9 134.4 133.9 131.3 Pork 131.8 140.7 139.5 142.1 Poultry 141.6 148.0 147.6 149.6 Dairy Products 132.8 136.7 137.0 137.6 Fluid milk & cream 132.5 137.4 137.4 137.7 Manufactured products 133.8 136.7 137.2 138.2 Price Spreads Cents/lb.. Beef Farm to wholesale 27.5 18.4 23.4 26.2 Wholesale to retail 121.8 127.4 131.4 127.6 Farmers share (%) 47.0 47.0 45.0 44.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 33.5 30.6 30.8 29.1 Wholesale to retail 98.1 101.4 97.5 92.8 Farmers share (%) 31.0 37.0 38.0 43.0 Poultry and eggs Wholesale to retail Broilers 82.6 85.0 85.8 77.8 Retail to consumer Turkey 32.7 33.6 28.0 29.3 Eggs 22.2 19.9 20.0 23.0 WHOLESALE PRICES Jun-95 Apr-96 May-96 Jun-96 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 107.65 96.01 96.90 101.50 Choice 1-3 700-850# 108.16 95.42 96.87 101.40 Select 1-3 700-850# 99.20 92.86 91.45 92.50 Cutter Cow 74.05 56.95 58.41 58.50 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 93.39 74.21 80.48 78.25 Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 87.75 80.25 81.70 81.00 Hide & offal value 8.89 8.23 8.47 8.45 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 161.28 169.97 162.77 163.00 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 60.98 67.50 76.68 73.50 Loins, 14-18 lb.. 118.81 119.70 131.61 116.25 Bellies, 12-14 lb.. 37.94 69.86 79.50 72.50 Hams, 20-26 lb.. 48.40 55.95 64.97 71.00 Trimmings, 72% fresh 43.64 46.63 61.98 65.62 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb.. down, Choice 179.50 176.25 185.67 201.00 55-65 lb.., Choice 179.50 176.25 185.67 201.00 Broilers 12 City Avg. 55.88 56.01 61.71 66.00 Georgia dock 53.51 54.90 58.82 63.00 Northeast Breast, boneless 181.15 164.86 197.34 197.00 Breast, Ribs on 90.41 83.09 105.39 100.00 Legs, whole 50.04 50.81 53.71 60.00 Leg quarters 33.42 34.45 38.22 42.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb.. 64.91 65.58 67.99 70.00 Hens, 8-16 lb.. 62.76 64.82 65.39 66.00 Drumsticks 19.95 27.20 24.41 25.00 Wings, full cut 24.53 56.56 34.89 31.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 65.45 89.63 80.15 82.00 New York 64.78 85.59 76.50 79.00 /* Estimate U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Mar-96 Apr-96 Jan - Jan - Apr-95 Apr-96 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb.. Australia 38,590 46,557 241,487 161,075 New Zealand 57,532 60,923 222,323 210,441 Canada 45,609 42,376 139,623 178,049 Brazil 8,014 7,936 14,734 26,213 Argentina 14,944 12,466 57,424 53,596 Central America 11,038 7,219 62,981 43,371 Other 4,879 6,691 8,026 18,967 Total 180,607 184,169 746,598 691,712 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 90,923 121,057 281,346 387,075 Canada 24,034 26,001 88,889 97,632 Mexico 9,560 11,650 24,399 41,703 Korea, Rep. 13,105 29,863 66,494 76,681 Caribbean 1,229 825 4,307 3,852 Other 10,365 17,114 32,340 52,038 Total 149,215 206,510 497,776 658,980 Cattle Imports Mexico 58,555 33,869 802,239 192,870 Canada 149,868 134,368 369,688 580,982 Over 700 lb.s. 127,688 123,591 345,326 510,707 500-700 lb.s. 16,459 3,576 2,192 49,296 Total 208,423 168,237 1,171,928 773,885 Cattle Exports Mexico 4,656 6,699 4,167 19,331 Canada 2,993 3,692 26,575 12,478 Total 7,852 10,729 32,739 44,635 Lamb Imports Australia 3,154 1,957 6,644 9,435 New Zealand 2,627 2,159 7,144 7,768 Total 5,820 4,117 13,925 17,407 Mutton Imports 2,182 2,047 8,812 7,378 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Customs Service YTD imports under WTO 5/01/95 5/12/96 % Chg Canada 118,204 163,470 3635.1% TRQ Countries 326,933 328,229 -1743.8% Australia 175,481 129,909 -2851.7% New Zealand 151,449 155,543 -601.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Mar-96 Apr-96 Jan - Jan - Apr-95 Apr-96 Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lb.. Canada 35,711 33,147 154,397 133,620 Denmark 11,081 10,806 51,398 40,353 Poland 1,225 680 4,699 3,229 Hungary 958 809 3,008 2,430 Netherlands 881 902 3,849 3,355 Other 2,830 2,236 11,582 9,415 Total 52,686 48,580 228,932 192,402 Pork Exports Japan 49,957 84,601 93,529 198,044 Canada 8,660 9,064 14,356 33,617 Mexico 3,684 3,159 20,771 18,332 Caribbean 937 779 3,123 3,182 Other 15,222 31,044 110,008 96,951 Total 78,460 128,647 241,788 350,126 Hog Imports Head Canada 211,432 212,222 428,896 842,386 Under 110 lb. 70,750 65,664 189,746 256,496 Total 211,432 212,222 429,432 842,537 Hog Exports Total 4,794 5,086 4,000 34,279 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb.. Japan 20,309 18,075 72,575 72,450 Mexico 17,337 15,791 59,131 68,176 Hong Kong 108,446 111,728 305,464 324,829 Singapore 4,821 3,752 15,493 16,911 Canada 6,593 6,062 19,328 24,296 Former USSR 73,855 106,440 439,312 572,377 Total 339,766 343,212 1,171,894 1,417,765 Turkey Exports Mexico 12,888 9,770 40,174 46,031 S. Korea 2,588 3,371 10,903 9,323 Hong Kong 781 491 5,671 2,814 Total 40,440 19,872 87,382 115,713 Shell thousand dz. Egg Exports 9,939 7,554 31,580 37,107 PRODUCTION INDICATORS May-95 Mar-96 Apr-96 May-96 Cattle: On feed - 7 States, 1,000+ Hd 8,233 8,152 8,286 7,758 Net placements 1,616 1,610 1,085 1,689 Marketings 1,667 1,476 1,613 1,300 Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 563,712 573,793 560,715 567,484 Chicks hatched (000)/2 692,004 689,719 665,443 695,000 Hatching egg layers/1 49,769 51,708 50,440 52,806 Pullets placed (000) 6,135 6,374 6,442 NA Hvy-type hen slaughter 5,314 5,930 5,535 5,400 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 37,323 36,182 39,196 37,018 Poults placed (000) 29,476 27,949 29,722 29,630 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.)/2 439 460 441 445 Table egg layers, (000)/1 242,070 245,410 245,692 242,593 Table eggs/100 layers/1 71.0 71.8 73.2 71.2 Chicks hatched (000) 37,482 37,687 35,553 37,500 Lt.-type hen slaughter 9,406 7,313 8,797 9,000 ESTIMATED RETURNS Jun-95 Apr-96 May-96 Jun-96 /* Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 62.93 65.20 59.95 58.49 Selling price 63.91 59.85 59.78 61.60 Net margin 0.98 -5.35 -0.17 3.11 N. Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price /3 36.72 42.30 43.14 44.25 Selling price 43.28 51.30 58.22 55.50 Net margin 6.56 9.00 15.08 11.25 Broiler Wholesale cost 48.44 54.80 55.34 58.10 Wholesale price 55.88 56.01 61.71 66.00 Net margin 7.44 1.21 6.37 7.90 Turkey Wholesale cost 60.20 70.51 71.09 71.93 Wholesale price 63.49 64.37 66.00 66.50 Net margin 3.29 -6.14 -5.09 -5.43 Egg Wholesale cost 66.51 77.78 82.51 84.71 Wholesale price 65.45 89.63 80.15 82.00 Net margin -1.06 11.85 -2.36 -2.71 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* estimate MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS May-95 Mar-96 Apr-96 May-96 Milk production Production - 21 States, Mil. lb. 11,959 11,671 11,451 11,803 Milk cow number - 21 States, Thou 8,056 7,998 7,988 7,989 Milk per cow - 21 States, Lb. 1,484 1,459 1,434 1,477 Production - U.S., Mil. lb. 13,875 13,560 13,285 13,694 Milk prices: Dol./cwt All milk 12.30 13.70 13.90 14.00 Milk for fluid use 12.30 13.70 13.90 14.00 Manuf. grade milk 11.00 12.60 13.00 13.20 Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 11.12 12.70 13.09 13.77 Wholesale prices: cents/lb. Grade A butter 66.5 65.5 69.0 87.8 Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 122.1 140.9 145.1 151.8 Barrels 118.4 135.2 139.8 146.2 Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 106.8 110.1 110.3 116.0 International prices: $/metric ton Butter 2,175 2,063 2,047 1,764 Nonfat dry milk 2,135 2,074 2,006 1,955 Beginning stocks: Mil. lb. Commercial butter 33.4 30.2 47.4 37.8 Commercial American cheese 334.7 343.0 348.8 371.0 Other cheese 131.0 123.3 142.0 150.1 Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 127.1 80.0 98.4 100.1 All commercial (mf. basis) 5,120 4,910 5,502 5,576 All commercial (ss. basis) 6,416 5,716 6,195 6,532 All Government (mf. basis) 1,031 82 34 34 All Government (ss. basis) 332 122 115 122 USDA net removals: Mil. lb. Butter 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cheese 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Nonfat dry milk 44.8 32.4 10.5 5.6 All products (mf basis 2/) 293.4 17.8 13.1 11.5 All products (ss basis 2/) 555.5 389.3 134.7 77.2 Apr-95 Feb-96 Mar-96 Apr-96 Dairy product output: Mil. lb. Butter 120.6 118.1 113.2 108.2 American cheese 264.9 270.8 286.1 278.9 Other-than-American cheese 298.7 316.6 348.5 332.7 Frozen products 1/, Mil. gal. 106.5 85.7 98.6 106.9 All products (mf basis 2/) 8355.6 7918.3 8340.7 8245.1 Nonfat dry milk 125.0 93.0 104.4 111.7 Commercial disappearance: Mil. lb.. Butter 99.2 110.2 96.1 NA American cheese 253.8 251.2 281.2 NA Other-than-American cheese 324.9 327.9 350.0 NA Nonfat dry milk 50.3 79.3 54.0 NA All products (mf. basis) 12776.0 12075.0 13024.0 NA Imports (mf basis 2/) 190.3 158.8 193.5 NA END-END-END