LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY July 23, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. LDP-M-31. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #LDP-M, $28/year. A consolidated subscription to all of the livestock, dairy, and poultry reports (34 issues/year) is also available as stock #LDP-A, $66/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. This report can also be accessed electronically on the ERS Home Page on the Internet (http://www.econ.ag.gov/). For information on this and other forms of electronic access, call (202) 219-0515. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Continuing uncertainty about the 1996 corn and soybean crops and tight stocks have pushed up feed costs. Feed prices have moderated from late spring, early summer levels and will likely continue to decline if the expected crop production materializes. The 1996 corn crop is forecast at 9.115 billion bushels. The farm corn price during the 1996/97 marketing year is expected to average $2.90 to $3.30 per bushel, compared with $3.15 to $3.25 in 1995/96. The soybean crop is projected at 2.315 billion bushels this year. Soybean meal prices (48 percent, Decatur) are expected to average $215- $255 per ton in the 1996/97 marketing year, compared with $230 in 1995/96. Prices To Trim Expansion in Dairy Product Use Demand for dairy products was strong in early 1996, as sales of most major dairy products grew despite higher prices. Economic expansion generated higher consumer incomes, and consumers were more willing to spend on dairy products than they were during much of 1995. January-April commercial use of cheese rose, continuing the relatively strong sales of late 1995. Butter sales were moderately above a year earlier, as available supplies were readily absorbed by domestic users and exports. Commercial use of nonfat dry milk jumped. However, most of the strength in powder sales probably resulted from larger use of nonfat dry milk in cheese production. Fluid milk sales were up about 1 percent from January-April 1995. However, continued expansion is far from certain. In recent years, fluid sales have been erratic. Although declines in whole milk sales have been relatively small, gains in sales of 1-percent and skim milk have not consistently offset the whole milk decrease and the decline in 2-percent sales. Commercial use is projected to rise about 1 percent in 1996, on either a milkfat or skim solids basis. Despite some possibly slower growth, general economic conditions are expected to provide strength. Commercial use in 1997 is projected to grow 1-2 percent, aided by moderating prices. Pork Production To Continue Below Last Year Pork production in second-half 1996 is expected to continue below 1995 with annual production down about 4 percent based on the pig crops and hog inventories reported in the June Hogs and Pigs report. The lower production, net export growth, and population increases will reduce per capita pork consumption in 1996 by 7 percent, the largest yearly decline since 1982. Only a marginal recovery in per capita consumption (less than 1 percent) is expected in 1997. Rising hog prices in first-half 1996 more than offset increasing feed costs, boosting producers returns. Prospects for continuing high feed costs until late this year and seasonally declining hog prices may put some producers in an unprofitable position this fall. High-cost producers with less feed efficiency may continue to cut back or exit the industry selling corn, gilts, and sows at relatively high prices. Producers as of June 1 indicated plans to have 3 percent fewer sows farrow during June-November than a year ago. The U.S. hog inventory on June 1 was down 4 percent from a year earlier. The market hog inventory was down 3 percent, while the breeding inventory was down 5 percent. The inventories reflect downward revisions in pig crops and inventories in the two previous Hogs and Pigs reports and sharply lower sow farrowings during March-May. These data revisions suggest that a modest cutback in hog inventories occurred over the last 9 months. Pork Supplies To Be Lower Pork supply projections have been lowered for the next 18 months based on pig crop and inventory data published in the June Hogs and Pigs report and the continuing uncertainty about 1996 crop production and feed prices. Pork production for 1996 is expected to total about 17.1 billion pounds, while 1997 production is projected at about 17.35 billion pounds. The second-half 1996 pork production forecast was lowered reflecting a 584,000-head downward revision in the December-February pig crop and the lower than expected March-May pig crop as sow farrowings were 8 percent below a year ago. In March, producers reported intentions of having only 1 percent fewer sows farrow during the period. In addition, the third-quarter slaughter forecast is lower than the historical relationship between slaughter and the pig crop would suggest, reflecting the relatively low weekly slaughter rates in June and early July. The June 1 market hog inventory (180 pounds and over) suggests that the June and early July slaughter rates should have been higher. First-half 1997 hog slaughter will be largely from the June-November pig crop. In the June survey, producers indicated intentions of having 3 percent fewer sows farrow during June-November than a year earlier. Based on the farrowing intentions and the rising trend in pigs per litter, the June-November pig crop is projected to be about 1 percent less than a year ago. Assuming the percentage of the pig crop slaughtered will be near the historical average, pork production in first-half 1997 is projected to be about the same as a year ago. Second-half 1997 pork production will largely depend on the size of the December 1996-May 1997 pig crop. The number of sows farrowing during this period is expected to be about unchanged from December 1995-May 1996. Pigs per litter are forecast to be about 8.6, reflecting the continuing upward trend. The shift toward an increasing share of hog production by the larger producers that have larger litter sizes is expected to continue next year. The projected pig crop for December 1996-May 1997 is up about 2 percent from the same period a year earlier. Pork production in second-half 1997 will likely be up about 3 percent from second-half 1996. Third-quarter 1997 projected production reflects a return to the historical average percentage of pigs slaughtered from the December-February pig crop. Projected Prices Higher Hog prices are expected to average in the mid- to high $50's per cwt this summer, then decline seasonally into the low $50's this fall and winter. Prices are expected to rebound to the mid- to high $50's next spring and summer and decline to the high $40's in the fall of 1997. Hog prices in the second quarter of 1996 averaged $55 per cwt, up $17 from a year ago due to sharply lower pork production and strong export sales. However, increasing beef supplies and lower retail beef prices likely kept hog prices from averaging even higher. Prices in the third quarter are expected to average in the mid-$50's per cwt as pork production declines and export demand moderates. Increasing broiler supplies will likely temper hog price increases this summer and fall. In 1997, hog prices will likely average about the same as this year. Composite retail pork prices averaged $2.15 per pound in the second quarter, 25 cents above last year. Bacon prices have been sharply higher, reflecting higher use in a number of fast food products and low belly stocks. In 1996, retail prices will likely average around 10 percent higher than in 1995. Prices in 1997 are expected to average about the same as in 1996. The U.S. exported 115 million pounds of pork in May, down from 129 million pounds in April. Export reductions were due largely to a sharp drop-off in shipments to Japan. Exports to Japan were 70 million pounds in May, down from 85 million pounds in April. Trade data from May indicate that fresh exports were down 16 percent from April and frozen shipments were 13 percent lower. It is likely that high domestic hog prices slowed exports overall in May. The U.S. imported 53 million pounds of pork in May up 9 percent from April. High domestic prices drawing in more pork from Canada, the EU, and Eastern Europe. Poultry Production Costs Increasing Although production costs since March have risen 5 cents a pound of meat produced, broiler processor net returns have increased significantly. Returns were near breakeven during February to April but a 10-cent-per- pound increase in broiler prices has more than offset the increase in production costs. Returns later this summer are expected to be very small. Processors may face the small losses during the fourth quarter as prices for broilers will probably fall faster than feed costs. Moderating increases in production during the second quarter and strong domestic and export demand have kept prices strong. Stronger increases in production are expected during the third quarter compared to last summer's heat-affected production, which should pressure prices. Production costs are 10-15 cents per pound above a year ago for turkey producers, due to increases in corn and soybean meal prices. Wholesale prices for whole birds are about 5 cents per pound higher than a year ago. Increased feed costs and smaller increases in meat prices have generated negative returns for producers. Turkey production continues to post relatively strong increases despite the negative net returns. Small production increases are expected during 1997 because of the current losses. Egg production is expected to be about 3 percent above a year ago during the third quarter. The flock size is expected to increase from the recent low in June and from the heat reduced flock of 1995. Net returns have been negative for egg producers recently as price increases have not been able to keep pace with the over 25-percent increase in production costs. Current returns are expected to limit production increases during 1997. Poultry Exports Up Sharply During January-May 1996, broiler exports totaled 1.8 billion pounds, up 25 percent from 1995. However, the growth rate is expected to decline in second-half 1996. For all of 1996 broiler exports are expected to total 4.3 billion pounds, 10 percent above 1995. As in the last 2 years, the FSU and China are likely to account for the majority of export growth. Direct shipments to Russia are forecast to increase by almost 300 million pounds to 1.8 billion. Exports to Hong Kong are forecast to approach 1 billion pounds this year with most of these products re-exported to China. Direct export to China are forecast to reach 120 million pounds. This would make direct exports to China the fifth largest export market for broiler products. During the 1990's production of "other chicken" meat, primarily old hens, has remained relatively constant at close to 500 million pounds a year. However, the percentage of product being exported has risen significantly from about 5 percent in 1990 to a forecast 24 percent in 1996. Hong Kong and Canada are the two largest markets for U.S. other chicken products and over the first 5 months of 1996, exports to these two countries have risen 50 and 160 percent. After rising rapidly in the first quarter of 1996, turkey exports for the remainder of 1996 are expected to be only slightly higher than in 1995. Much of the increase in the first quarter was due to large purchases by Poland and Russia. Both countries have been sporadic buyers in the past and after large first-quarter purchases are forecast to have much smaller imports in second-half 1996. Total egg exports are forecast to rise 11 percent in 1996 to 232 million dozen. Export growth has been strong over the first 5 months, especially to Japan, Hong Kong, and Mexico. In second-half 1996, continued strong sales to Mexico (especially egg products) are likely to be partially offset by smaller exports to Japan. The Japanese market is also chiefly for egg products. The yen's decline against the dollar will make U.S. egg products less price competitive. Midyear Cattle Inventory Down The midyear Cattle report indicated that producers reacted to the adverse conditions in first-half 1996 by increasing cow culling rates and in some cases dispersing their herds. The July 1 cattle inventory was down 1 percent from a year earlier and additional reductions are likely. Beef cows were down 1 percent and producers reported 4 percent fewer replacement heifers. This year's calf crop is estimated to be down 1 percent from a year earlier. However, feeder cattle supplies will tighten over the next couple of years due to herd cutbacks already initiated. Feeder cattle supplies outside feedlots on July 1 were up only 3 percent from a year earlier. Feeder cattle supplies have been held down by reduced imports from Mexico and continued strong calf slaughter. First-half calf slaughter was up 22 percent, while imports from Mexico were about one-fifth of a year earlier. Feeder- cattle imports from Canada, while up sharply, have added less than 50,000 head to supplies. Feeder cattle prices have strengthened relatively little as fed cattle prices rose from early spring lows. Feeder cattle prices remain under pressure of high grain prices, but are expected to rise as fed cattle prices strengthen to the upper $60's later this year and grain prices decline. However, fed cattle price strength above the recent rise toward the upper $60's will be difficult until fall when supplies begin to decline seasonally. Retail prices for Choice beef have declined, but prices likely began to stabilize in June. Beef prices are expected to rise through early 1997 as higher retail pork prices takes pressure off retail beef prices. The "All fresh" retail beef price, which includes Choice beef, has declined since late fall, reflecting the larger supplies of lower quality beef in the market. Compared with a year earlier, second-quarter Choice beef prices were down 6 cents a pound to $2.77, while the "All fresh" price was down 10 cents to $2.50. Beef exports through May were up 28 percent compared with a year earlier, but the pace slowed from the export levels in April. Continued strong beef imports by Japan is expected to trigger higher tariffs this summer under the snapback provisions permissible under the World Trade Organization agreements. However, the tariff would return to 50 percent of value from the present 46.2 percent. This is a much smaller change than the recent 24-percent rise in the pork tariff, which was imposed on July 1. U.S. beef imports through May were down 6 percent from a year earlier as large domestic supplies of lower quality beef continue to discourage imports. In addition, improved moisture conditions in Australia are resulting in reduced slaughter. Australian exports to the U.S. are down 30 percent from a year earlier, while New Zealand exports are down only 5 percent. Canadian exports to the U.S. of both beef and slaughter cattle remain strong. Principal Contributors (202) 219-1285 Leland Southard (Coordinator), Milton Madison (Poultry), Dave Harvey (Poultry Trade), Ron Gustafson (Cattle), Mildred Haley (Pork Trade), Jim Miller(Dairy),LaVerne Williams (Statistics). PRODUCTION INDICATORS Jun-95 Apr-96 May-96 Jun-96 Cattle: On feed - 7 States, 1,000+ Hd 8,182 8,286 7,758 7,253 Net placements 1,306 1,085 1,242 1,021 Marketings 1,754 1,613 1,747 1,696 Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 564,587 560,715 567,484 571,385 Chicks hatched (000)/2 670,839 665,443 698,176 675,000 Hatching egg layers/1 49,174 50,440 50,150 50,097 Pullets placed (000) 6,178 6,442 6,776 6,500 Hvy-type hen slaughter 5,456 5,535 5,266 5,500 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 38,399 39,196 37,018 38,082 Poults placed (000) 29,986 29,722 29,712 27,910 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.)/2 422 441 446 430 Table egg layers, (000)/1 238,853 245,692 242,969 241,900 Table eggs/100 layers/1 71.3 73.2 71.2 71.2 Chicks hatched (000) 34,948 35,553 38,477 36,000 Lt.-type hen slaughter 8,890 8,797 8,431 6,500 ESTIMATED RETURNS Jul-95 May-96 Jun-96 Jul-96 /* Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 60.41 59.95 58.49 56.87 Selling price 61.81 59.78 61.37 64.45 Net margin 1.40 -0.17 2.88 7.58 N. Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price /3 36.87 43.14 44.25 45.36 Selling price 47.69 58.22 55.98 59.00 Net margin 10.82 15.08 11.73 13.64 Broiler Wholesale cost 48.60 55.34 58.10 59.18 Wholesale price 58.76 61.71 65.52 64.50 Net margin 10.16 6.37 7.42 5.32 Turkey Wholesale cost 60.75 71.09 71.93 76.38 Wholesale price 65.18 66.00 67.10 67.00 Net margin 4.43 -5.09 -4.83 -9.38 Egg Wholesale cost 67.48 82.51 84.71 83.69 Wholesale price 75.49 80.15 82.37 83.50 Net margin 8.01 -2.36 -2.34 -0.19 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* estimate LIVESTOCK PRICES Jul-95 May-96 Jun-96 Jul-96 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 61.81 59.78 61.60 64.45 Nebraska Direct 62.54 59.72 61.60 64.40 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 37.50 33.63 35.10 34.50 Utility boning 34.27 29.03 32.35 33.00 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 71.00 58.44 61.75 63.10 600-650 lb. 68.78 58.19 61.50 61.60 750-800 lb. 66.20 56.03 61.25 62.65 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 64.88 48.63 52.75 52.75 700-750 lb. 63.13 52.50 57.50 59.50 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 47.10 57.91 55.25 58.75 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 47.69 58.22 55.50 59.00 Sows 6 Markets 30.37 43.84 44.00 51.00 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) 28.87 32.00 29.00 NA Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 83.70 86.17 98.00 NA Ewes, Good 34.40 29.38 33.00 NA Feeder lambs, Choice 79.80 100.75 102.50 NA GRAIN AND FEED PRICES Jul-95 May-96 Jun-96 Jul-96 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 2.84 4.86 4.74 4.70 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 4.98 6.92 6.00 5.35 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 170.45 244.27 238.80 252.00 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 89.60 102.40 96.90 NA Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 83.80 97.10 92.30 NA /* Estimates WHOLESALE PRICES Jul-95 May-96 Jun-96 Jul-96 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 103.03 96.90 100.70 102.20 Choice 1-3 700-850# 103.24 96.87 100.69 101.85 Select 1-3 700-850# 95.79 91.45 92.02 94.75 Cutter Cow 69.18 58.41 58.34 59.10 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 85.85 80.48 79.60 83.65 Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 86.31 81.70 80.56 84.50 Hide & offal value 8.69 8.47 8.45 8.90 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 164.48 162.77 NA 174.00 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 63.66 76.68 73.94 78.50 Loins, 14-18 lb. 124.65 131.61 115.73 128.00 Bellies, 12-14 lb. 43.10 79.50 72.64 89.00 Hams, 20-26 lb. 59.64 64.97 71.88 74.50 Trimmings, 72% fresh 42.57 61.98 66.30 66.75 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. down, Choice 180.25 185.67 224.13 201.25 55-65 lb., Choice 180.25 185.67 224.13 201.25 Broilers 12 City Avg. 58.76 61.71 65.52 64.50 Georgia dock 55.46 58.82 63.47 64.00 Northeast Breast, boneless 195.10 197.53 194.08 204.00 Breast, Ribs on 98.36 105.14 98.35 105.00 Legs, whole 50.24 53.67 59.49 60.00 Leg quarters 35.48 38.10 41.90 42.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 66.73 67.99 70.04 70.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 64.78 65.39 65.85 66.00 Drumsticks 17.94 25.06 24.83 25.00 Wings, full cut 24.59 35.07 30.77 31.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 75.49 80.15 82.37 83.50 New York 75.60 76.50 79.40 81.00 /* Estimate RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Jun-95 Apr-96 May-96 Jun-96 Cents/lb. Retail prices Beef - Choice 283.4 279.3 276.6 276.3 Beef - All Fresh 257.5 254.0 248.9 247.5 Ground Beef 133.3 135.4 131.9 132.4 Rib roast 491.8 485.1 473.3 488.0 T-bone steak 599.8 584.0 582.1 581.9 Pork 189.0 208.6 213.6 222.5 Bacon 189.6 224.2 234.5 249.3 Chops 313.7 333.8 334.2 353.3 Picnic 106.1 119.9 118.6 118.0 Chicken - Composite 142.2 146.4 149.1 150.6 Whole, fresh 90.8 94.7 94.9 96.8 Breast - bone in 197.9 197.6 201.8 208.9 Leg quarter 113.4 121.2 123.4 120.5 Turkey; whole frozen 105.3 101.4 104.3 104.1 Eggs, Grade A, Large 82.5 108.6 102.1 94.5 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 152.5 156.3 156.6 156.7 All food 147.9 152.3 152.0 152.6 All meat 134.0 136.9 136.4 138.8 Beef & veal 133.9 133.9 131.3 131.9 Pork 132.2 139.5 142.1 148.8 Poultry 142.9 147.6 149.6 151.3 Dairy Products 132.2 137.0 137.6 139.8 Fluid milk & cream 132.1 137.4 137.7 140.7 Manufactured products 132.9 137.2 138.2 139.5 Price Spreads Cents/lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 31.5 23.4 26.2 26.7 Wholesale to retail 117.8 131.4 127.6 121.7 Farmers share (%) 47.0 45.0 44.0 46.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 30.4 30.8 29.1 28.0 Wholesale to retail 89.8 97.5 92.8 105.6 Farmers share (%) 36.0 38.0 43.0 40.0 Poultry and eggs Wholesale to retail Broilers 80.4 85.8 77.8 83.9 Retail to consumer Turkey 32.8 28.0 29.3 28.0 Eggs 19.1 20.0 23.0 13.1 MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - Jul-95 Jul-96 May-96 Jun-96 Jul-96 /* Million pounds Commercial production Beef 14,302 15,160 2,303 2,186 2,216 Veal 176 207 30 29 30 Pork 10,180 9,891 1,413 1,206 1,400 Lamb 169 158 21 18 20 Total red meat 24,827 25,416 3,767 3,439 3,666 Broilers 14,448 15,399 2,274 2,100 2,200 Other chicken 299 299 43 40 43 Turkeys 2,907 3,131 485 460 475 Total poultry 17,653 18,829 2,802 2,600 2,718 Total meat & poultry 42,480 44,245 6,569 6,039 6,384 Thousand head Commercial slaughter Cattle 20,415 21,723 3,329 3,146 3,168 Steers 10,696 10,994 1,721 1,631 1,644 Heifers 5,889 6,316 935 906 925 Beef Cows 1,777 2,267 360 335 317 Dairy Cows 1,662 1,738 247 214 222 Bulls and stags 391 407 66 60 60 Calves 797 980 137 136 144 Sheep 2,710 2,455 325 282 315 Hogs 54,943 53,200 7,633 6,532 7,350 Barrows & gilts 52,221 50,626 7,251 6,198 6,980 Sows 2,187 2,155 320 281 310 Broilers 4,283,282 4,415,187 655,214 600,000 650,000 Turkeys 156,047 165,231 25,469 24,000 25,500 Jul-95 Apr-96 May-96 Jun-96 Jul-96 /* Pounds F.I. dressed weight Cattle 716 699 699 701 700 Calves 216 219 219 215 216 Sheep 63 66 66 64 63 Hogs 185 186 186 186 186 Million pounds Beginning cold storage stocks Beef 352.3 347.3 335.6 307.4 305.9 Pork 431.1 352.9 385.5 381.3 352.0 Bellies 67.6 47.7 57.2 63.5 56.8 Hams 110.0 35.7 61.6 79.8 80.1 Total chicken 537.3 699.9 706.2 655.2 666.9 Turkey 598.8 445.4 514.5 573.1 662.8 Frozen eggs 22.9 12.4 11.5 11.4 11.7 /* Estimates U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Apr-96 May-96 Jan - Jan - May-95 May-96 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 46,557 42,904 291,355 203,979 New Zealand 60,923 55,746 280,820 266,187 Canada 42,376 44,263 174,654 222,312 Brazil 7,936 8,232 22,969 34,445 Argentina 12,466 13,330 70,510 66,926 Central America 7,219 6,673 72,688 50,044 Other 6,691 6,363 9,591 25,330 Total 184,169 177,512 922,586 869,223 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 121,057 105,779 368,833 492,854 Canada 26,001 26,432 116,471 124,065 Mexico 11,650 13,254 33,911 54,957 Korea, Rep. 29,863 21,641 92,005 98,322 Caribbean 825 1,286 5,110 5,137 Other 17,114 15,203 41,439 67,241 Total 206,510 183,596 657,769 842,576 Cattle Imports Mexico 33,869 18,612 981,162 211,482 Canada 134,368 152,867 471,813 733,849 Over 700 lbs. 123,591 143,022 440,380 653,729 500-700 lbs. 3,576 2,996 2,906 52,292 Total 168,237 171,479 1,453,024 945,364 Cattle Exports Mexico 6,699 10,834 5,020 30,165 Canada 3,692 3,433 30,514 15,911 Total 10,729 15,838 37,918 60,473 Lamb Imports Australia 1,957 2,006 8,327 11,441 New Zealand 2,159 2,599 9,140 10,367 Total 4,117 4,696 17,658 22,103 Mutton Imports 2,047 1,768 11,372 9,146 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Customs Service YTD imports under WTO 7/16/95 7/14/96 % Chg Canada 180,398 250,722 3898.3% TRQ Countries 563,251 478,690 -1501.3% Australia 255,092 188,066 -2627.5% New Zealand 249,149 232,427 -671.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Apr-96 May-96 Jan - Jan - May-95 May-96 Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lb. Canada 33,147 35,922 193,388 169,542 Denmark 10,806 10,840 63,110 51,193 Poland 680 969 5,135 4,198 Hungary 809 1,222 3,938 3,652 Netherlands 902 1,080 4,972 4,435 Other 2,236 3,002 15,096 12,418 Total 48,580 53,035 285,639 245,437 Pork Exports Japan 84,601 70,151 127,138 268,195 Canada 9,064 8,415 17,893 42,031 Mexico 3,159 3,467 25,687 21,799 Caribbean 779 1,020 4,041 4,203 Other 31,044 31,424 132,553 128,375 Total 128,647 114,477 307,312 464,603 Hog Imports Head Canada 212,222 222,897 551,520 1,065,283 Under 110 lb 65,664 64,941 243,485 321,437 Total 212,222 222,897 552,795 1,065,434 Hog Exports Total 5,086 2,430 4,598 36,709 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 18,075 20,936 94,668 93,385 Mexico 15,791 16,556 75,653 84,732 Hong Kong 111,728 99,901 372,174 424,730 Singapore 3,752 4,469 20,166 21,380 Canada 6,062 6,375 27,083 30,671 Former USSR 106,440 166,866 541,030 739,243 Total 343,212 406,704 1,458,211 1,824,469 Turkey Exports Mexico 9,770 11,420 51,241 57,451 S. Korea 3,371 2,537 15,589 11,861 Hong Kong 491 2,630 7,181 5,443 Total 19,872 27,923 117,050 143,636 Shell Thousand dz. Egg Exports 7,554 9,507 40,991 46,614 MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS Jun-95 Apr-96 May-96 Jun-96 Milk production Production - 21 States, Mil. lb 11,465 11,451 11,740 11,175 Milk cow number - 21 States, Thou 8,066 7,988 7,987 7,979 Milk per cow - 21 States, Lb 1,421 1,434 1,470 1,401 Production - U.S., Mil. lb 13,302 13,279 13,614 12,959 Milk prices: Dol./cwt All milk 12.10 13.90 14.30 14.50 Milk for fluid use 12.20 13.90 14.30 14.50 Manuf. grade milk 11.10 13.00 13.40 13.60 Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 11.42 13.09 13.77 13.92 Wholesale prices: cents/lb Grade A butter 69.9 69.0 87.8 129.3 Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 126.9 145.1 151.8 151.5 Barrels 119.1 139.8 146.2 145.8 Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 106.8 110.3 116.0 129.8 International prices: $/metric ton Butter 2,232 2,047 1,764 1,708 Nonfat dry milk 2,150 2,006 1,955 1,927 Beginning stocks: Mil. lb Commercial butter 43.3 47.4 37.3 33.5 Commercial American cheese 343.9 348.8 368.4 382.9 Other cheese 121.6 142.0 148.9 152.0 Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 129.0 98.4 100.3 86.1 All commercial (mf. basis) 5,367 5,502 5,531 5,600 All commercial (ss. basis) 6,450 6,195 6,497 6,501 All Government (mf. basis) 851 34 60 21 All Government (ss. basis) 312 115 122 20 USDA net removals: Mil. lb Butter 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cheese 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Nonfat dry milk 22.9 10.5 5.6 9.2 All products (mf basis 2/) 160.1 13.1 11.5 8.2 All products (ss basis 2/) 289.5 134.7 77.2 113.8 May-95 Mar-96 Apr-96 May-96 Dairy product output: Mil. lb Butter 119.4 113.2 107.9 99.7 American cheese 278.3 286.1 277.2 299.8 Other-than-American cheese 321.4 348.5 332.7 334.8 Frozen products 1/, Mil. gal. 115.2 98.6 107.2 118.5 All products (mf basis 2/) 8726.8 8340.7 8226.0 8519.5 Nonfat dry milk 137.1 104.4 113.1 111.5 Commercial disappearance: Mil. lb Butter 98.2 96.1 118.1 103.5 American cheese 272.2 281.2 258.6 285.3 Other-than-American cheese 354.9 350.0 346.2 354.7 Nonfat dry milk 90.5 77.4 100.9 120.5 All products (mf. basis) 13434.0 13024.0 13316.0 13619.0 Imports (mf basis 2/) 231.7 193.5 197.2 206.2 Annual Forecasts 1994 1995 1996 1997 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 6,605 6,740 6,862 7,033 CPI-U, Annual % Change 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8 Unemployment rate, % 5.8 5.6 5.8 5.8 3-Month T Bill,% 5.1 5.5 4.8 4.7 10-Year Bond,% 6.2 6.0 5.7 5.8 Production, million lb. Beef 24,278 25,115 25,677 25,975 Pork 17,658 17,812 17,114 17,350 Broilers 23,847 25,021 26,484 27,900 Turkeys 4,992 5,129 5,445 5,500 Total Red Meat & Poultry 71,796 74,071 75,705 77,666 Eggs, mil doz. 5,266 5,244 5,359 5,375 Milk 153,626 155,643 156,251 159,727 Commercial use (mf basis) 150,196 155,013 156,971 158,700 Net removals (mf basis) 4,812 2,148 180 609 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 67.0 67.4 67.4 67.0 Pork 53.1 52.4 48.6 49.1 Broilers 69.8 69.7 72.8 75.9 Turkeys 17.8 17.9 18.6 18.7 Total Red Meat & Poultry 211.5 211.3 211.1 214.0 Eggs, number 238.6 234.5 237.2 235.3 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 68.84 66.24 62-65 63-68 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt. 77.72 68.03 59-61 61-67 Brk Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 42.51 35.58 39-41 34-36 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cwt 40.03 42.35 51-54 50-55 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 55.70 56.38 58-60 54-58 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 65.65 66.35 66-68 64-69 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 67.25 72.85 75-78 71-76 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 13.03 12.74 14.2-14.7 13.1-14.2 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 12.01 11.83 13.1-13.6 12.1-13.1 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 1,611 1,821 2,122 2,250 Beef & veal imports 2,368 2,104 2,058 2,025 Pork exports 531 770 1,084 1,064 Pork imports 743 664 601 605 Broiler exports 2,875 3,895 4,285 4,555 Turkey exports 281 348 400 405 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 Quarterly 1994/95 Forecasts QI'95 QII'95 QIII'95 QIV'95 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,702 6,709 6,763 6,784 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.1 3.4 2.0 2.4 Unemployment rate, % 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 6.0 6.0 6.1 5.9 Production, million lb. Beef 5,888 6,325 6,625 6,277 Pork 4,488 4,394 4,240 4,690 Broilers 6,147 6,356 6,182 6,336 Turkeys 1,196 1,297 1,289 1,347 Total Meat 17,993 18,617 18,555 18,906 Eggs, mil doz. 1,314 1,297 1,286 1,347 Milk (mf basis) 38,941 40,520 38,325 37,857 Commercial use 37,643 39,306 39,336 38,728 Net removals 1,046 749 242 111 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.3 17.1 17.6 16.4 Pork 13.1 12.9 12.7 13.7 Broilers 17.5 18.1 17.2 16.9 Turkeys 3.6 3.9 4.2 6.2 Total Meat 51.5 53.1 52.6 54.1 Eggs, number 59.2 58.0 57.8 59.5 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 71.51 64.70 62.65 66.10 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 72.62 65.77 66.17 67.55 Brk Cows,S. Falls 39.58 37.18 34.93 30.61 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 38.56 38.91 48.75 43.19 Broiler,12 City 51.70 53.50 60.70 59.60 Turkeys, Eastern 59.80 61.10 68.70 75.80 Eggs, New York 65.20 63.60 75.20 87.40 Milk, all at plant 12.57 12.23 12.40 13.77 Milk, M-W 11.68 11.23 11.62 12.80 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 368 452 499 502 Beef/veal imports 572 540 539 453 Pork exports 187 194 199 190 Pork imports 173 167 154 170 Broiler exports 873 856 1,019 1,147 Turkey exports 59 83 90 116 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 QI'96 QII'96 QIII'96 QIV'96 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,806 6,841 6,881 6,922 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.8 Unemployment rate, % 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 3-Month T Bill,% 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.7 10-Year Bond,% 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.8 Production, million lb. Beef 6,302 6,650 6,475 6,250 Pork 4,389 4,100 4,200 4,425 Broilers 6,609 6,625 6,600 6,650 Turkeys 1,270 1,375 1,400 1,400 Total Meat 18,849 18,988 18,896 18,972 Eggs, mil doz. 1,334 1,325 1,325 1,375 Milk (mf basis) 39,125 40,240 38,604 38,282 Commercial use 37,871 40,180 39,620 39,300 Net removals 25 32 50 73 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.9 17.5 16.9 16.1 Pork 12.6 11.2 12.1 12.7 Broilers 17.8 18.7 18.3 18.0 Turkeys 3.7 4.0 4.5 6.4 Total Meat 52.0 52.3 52.7 54.1 Eggs, number 59.0 58.5 59.1 60.6 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 63.06 60.16 61-65 64-68 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 58.11 56.87 59-63 62-66 Brk Cows,S. Falls 32.52 30.37 33-35 62-66 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 46.23 54.90 54-58 49-53 Broiler,12 City 56.20 61.00 58-62 53-57 Turkeys, Eastern 64.80 65.40 64-68 68-72 Eggs, New York 89.60 80.50 68-72 65-69 Milk, all at plant 13.83 14.23 14.6-15.3 14.3-15.1 Milk, M-W 12.67 12.67 13.8-14.4 12.7-13.5 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 452 535 560 575 Beef/veal imports 508 500 550 500 Pork exports 221 424 225 214 Pork imports 144 142 148 167 Broiler exports 1,075 1,020 1,050 1,140 Turkey exports 96 88 96 120 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 QI'97 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,968 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.9 Unemployment rate, % 5.7 3-Month T Bill,% 4.8 10-Year Bond,% 5.8 Production, million lb. Beef 6,100 Pork 4,275 Broilers 6,850 Turkeys 1,275 Total Meat 18,762 Eggs, mil doz. 1,325 Milk (mf basis) 38,958 Commercial use 3,800 Net removals 239 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.1 Pork 12.1 Broilers 18.6 Turkeys 4.0 Total Meat 51.7 Eggs, number 57.9 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 65-71 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 58-62 Brk Cows,S. Falls 34-36 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 50-54 Broiler,12 City 54-58 Turkeys, Eastern 58-62 Eggs, New York 66-72 Milk, all at plant 13.2-14.3 Milk, M-W 12.0-13.0 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 475 Beef/veal imports 500 Pork exports 242 Pork imports 154 Broiler exports 1,150 Turkey exports 87 Economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996. END-END-END