LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY August 26, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. LDP-M-32. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #LDP-M, $28/year. A consolidated subscription to all of the livestock, dairy, and poultry reports (34 issues/year) is also available as stock #LDP-A, $66/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Beef Supplies Declining; Exports Slowing Beef supplies are declining both from a year earlier and the record first-half 1996 production. However, total red meat and poultry supplies are expected to remain near to slightly above a year earlier through the end of the year. Weakening export markets would also add to domestic meat supplies. Large beef supplies and high grain prices have caused feedlots to lose money in much of the first half of the year and feedlot inventories to decline. Heavier feeder cattle placement weights will keep steer and heifer slaughter weights near record levels, supporting production. In addition, continued large cow slaughter will hold year-to-year production declines to 1 to 2 percent. Fed cattle prices have risen to yearly highs due to retailers accumulating stocks for Labor Day holiday specials. However, as these purchases and post holiday fill-in orders are completed, prices will have difficulty rising much above the mid- to upper $60's per cwt over the next few months, about the same as last year. The key to retail meat prices over the next few months may well be determined by changes in the export market, particularly due to health concerns in Japan. Retail prices for Choice beef are expected to rise from the late spring low of $2.76 per pound to the low $2.80's over the next 3 to 4 months, but below the $2.85 average of last fall. Any appreciable slowdown in exports this summer could raise per capita domestic consumption to near a year earlier, and lead to an even more moderate price increase. Beef exports in first-half 1996 were up 22 percent compared with a year earlier. However, the export pace in May and June slowed markedly from the strong April figure. Concerns over bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE or Mad Cow Disease) in Great Britain in late winter likely resulted in some slowdown in shipments to Japan in May and June. However, of even more concern is the early summer outbreak of food poisoning in Japan due to the E. coli 0-157 bacterium. Although the major impacts from the E. coli outbreak have yet to be felt, the end result could be lower exports, possibly some pickup in imports, and consequently more product remaining in the domestic market and less upward pressure on prices. There have been several deaths and thousands of illnesses in Japan since the outbreak began in early summer. Consumption of most food items has been affected and concern is likely to continue until the cause is isolated. Although boxed beef prices strengthened in mid-summer, suggesting good demand, future strength is uncertain as exports of food products to Japan are likely to be affected as food consumption slows and accumulated stocks are worked down. The impact of a slower export pace could be exacerbated to some extent if imports begin to rise due to stronger U.S. wholesale prices and already low world prices for processing beef. Poultry Exports Show Strong Increase In first-half 1996 exports of broilers, other chicken, turkeys, and eggs have all shown strong increases compared with the previous year. Indications are that year-over-year growth in exports will likely slow in second-half 1996, but export volume is expected to remain robust. Total poultry meat exports are expected to reach about 5.2 billion pounds, valued at well over $2 billion. The export forecast for broilers in 1996 and 1997 has been revised upward because of continued large shipments to Russia and Hong Kong, the two biggest markets for U.S. broilers. The 1996 forecast was increased by 375 million pounds to 4,660 million. Even with slower growth in second-half 1996, total exports are expected to be up 20 percent for the year. Additionally, the forecast for 1997 was raised 520 million pounds to 5,075 million. The higher export forecasts are based on continuing strong export sales, growing domestic broiler production, and relatively flat prices. It is also assumed that no new import restrictions will be put in place, especially in Russia or China. These markets account for about two-thirds of U.S. broiler exports. Most of the export increase in first-half 1996 has gone to Russia, Hong Kong, China, and Mexico, despite trade disruptions with Russia and Hong Kong. Russian exports were slowed in late March and early April due to disputes about health issues and sanitation standards, but exports rose 36 percent in first-half 1996. During January and February 1996 a Chinese crackdown on illegal imports of broiler products from Hong Kong caused U.S. first-quarter exports to Hong Kong to fall 7 percent from a year earlier. However, exports rebounded strongly, growing by 32 percent in second-quarter 1996. Almost all of China's broiler imports traditionally came through Hong Kong. However, direct exports have been growing rapidly. Through June, U.S. broiler shipments to China totaled 86 million pounds, 109 percent higher than in 1995. Direct exports to China are now the fifth largest market for U.S. broiler products. Exports of other chicken products are expected to reach 162 million pounds in 1996, up over 60 percent from 1995. Exports have more than doubled during first-half 1996. Growth has come from increased shipments to most major importing countries. As in the broiler market, year-over-year growth in second-half 1996 is not expected to be as strong as in the first half. Export growth for other chicken products is made possible by the expansion in domestic broiler production. As broiler production increases, the availability of large broiler-type laying hens culled from the breeding flock climbs. Over the last several years an increasing percentage of the exports in this category have been spent broiler-type hens. The large size, relatively low price, and higher dark meat percentage make them attractive to foreign buyers who prefer dark meat and cheap protein. Shipments to Hong Kong and Japan, the first and third largest markets, in January through June were up over 60 percent from the previous year. Shipments to other large markets such as Canada, and Mexico, rose over 100 percent. During first-half 1996, turkey exports rose 33 percent, due to increased exports to Mexico, Russia, and Poland. With moderate growth expected in the third and fourth quarters, turkey product exports are now expected to total 383 million pounds in 1996, 12 percent above a year earlier. Exports to Mexico, the largest export market for U.S. turkey products, rose 13 percent in first-half 1996. Even with the increases expected in the second half , turkey product exports to Mexico for all of 1996 will still be lower than the record 170 million pounds shipped in 1994. However, if the Mexican economy continues to strengthen in 1997, exports will likely return to 1994 levels. Most of the remaining growth in turkey exports was due to large but rather erratic purchases by Russia and Poland. Growth in these markets is likely to moderate in the second half of 1996 as the large first-half 1996 purchases are not likely to be repeated. The revised forecast for shell eggs and egg product exports for 1996 shows a 19-percent increase from 1995. U.S. egg and egg product exports in the first 6 months of 1996 grew 31 percent with shell egg exports up 13 percent and egg products up 49 percent. Egg exports in second-half 1996 and first-half 1997 should be aided by expected year-over-year price declines. Shell egg exports were boosted by a strong market for breaking eggs in the EU, with the Netherlands importing over 3 million dozen. The EU is not normally a large market for U.S. shell eggs and large exports to the EU are not expected in second-half 1996. Shell egg exports to Mexico and Hong Kong were also up sharply. Larger egg product exports were due almost exclusively to stronger exports to Mexico and Japan. After falling sharply in 1993, exports to Japan have risen steadily for the last 3 years. Exports to Mexico are expected to rise in 1996 for the fifth consecutive year. Broiler Prices Strong Wholesale broiler prices remain above a year ago in August. Slower increases in production and continuing strong export demand are supporting higher prices. No individual monthly prices are expected to be record high during 1996, but the annual average is likely to be a record. Wholesale price increases have been sufficient to offset most of the increase in feed costs and keep net returns positive for most broiler producers. Net returns for broiler processors have strengthened in recent months as wholesale prices have increased. Returns were estimated to be near breakeven during February to April but increased in May. Feed costs are currently estimated to be 44 percent above a year ago. Net returns may come under pressure in the fourth quarter when broiler prices typically decline. The hatch of broiler chicks has reportedly been up less than 1 percent since April, compared with 3-4 percent earlier in the year, indicating bird numbers will continue to grow slowly through early fall. Weekly eggs set during the first 2 weeks of August increased nearly 2-percent increase. Third-quarter production is expected to average about 6 percent higher than last year's heat-restricted production. The increase in birds placed is expected to be about 1 percent but fewer losses should allow larger slaughter and an even stronger increase in average liveweight. Fourth-quarter production is expected to increase by about 5 percent with bird placements returning to about a 2-percent increase and weight increases returning to 2-3 percent. Turkey Prices Expected To Increase Turkey prices are expected to see a little additional strength this fall. Prices for hogs and pork products have increased as production has declined from last year. Prices are expected to continue strong this fall, which should contribute to higher turkey prices. Feed costs are 10-15 cents per pound (over 50 percent) above a year ago for turkey producers, due to higher corn and soybean meal prices. Wholesale prices for whole birds have not seen the strong increases brought on last year by the July heat wave. Increased in feed costs and smaller increases in meat prices have generated negative net returns to producers. Egg Producers' Returns Squeezed Net returns were negative for egg producers during May and June as price increases did not keep pace with the over 50-percent increase in feed costs. Increases in egg prices have brought net returns back to positive but significantly below last year. Strong production increases may bring prices lower than a year ago during the fourth quarter and bring returns back to near breakeven. Current returns may limit production increases during the second half of 1997. Pork Production Rising Seasonally; Prices Declining Strong demand and lower-than-expected pork production this spring and summer lifted hog prices into the high $50's per cwt with hogs trading $60 and over at times. The higher hog prices more than offset higher feed costs, increasing producers' returns. Producers' returns in May, June, July and August were relatively favorable. However, producers' future production plans will likely be tempered by prospects for continuing tight grain stocks and feed price volatility. In mid-August, hog prices began slipping, reflecting increasing weekly hog slaughter and the slowdown in pork exports. Weekly slaughter typically rises seasonally from August through late November. Prices are expected to average in the low $50's per cwt this fall and early winter. These prices would be about $10 per cwt above last year, but would be near breakeven given current feed price expectations. Retail pork prices averaged $2.26 per pound in July reflecting tighter domestic supplies than previously expected. Bacon prices have been sharply higher, due to increased use in a number of fast-food products and low belly stocks. In the coming months, retail pork prices are expected to decline reflecting increasing production and a price spread between pork and beef that favors the featuring of beef items. For the year, retail pork prices are expected to average about 10 percent above last year. U.S. pork exports totaled 70 million pounds June, down 39 percent from May. Lower exports are attributable primarily to moderating Japanese stock-building efforts. Earlier this year Japan was building stocks in anticipation of higher import prices beginning July 1. U.S. exports to Japan in June were 42 million pounds, down from over 70 million in May. Higher U.S. pork prices appear to be reducing the purchasing ability of lower income countries. Russia and Mexico, in particular, imported significantly less U.S. pork in May. Lower Russian demand, however, appears to reflect emerging seasonal demand factors. Milk Prices To Decline When Wholesale dairy product prices stabilized for a while in August before another cheese price jump late in the month. Strong demand since late 1995 and recent substantial declines in production guarantee that average 1996 farm milk prices will be well above the previous record. Recent prices should precipitate production and use responses that will lower prices in coming months. However, the onset and severity of these declines are highly uncertain and upward movements remain quite possible as markets tighten seasonally. Strong demand for dairy products was the dominant factor boosting milk prices during October - April. Sales of both milkfat and skim solids grew more than 1 percent from a year earlier despite a Basic Formula Price (BFP) that averaged more than $1 per cwt higher. Cheese sales and use of skim solids and milkfat in processed foods appeared finally to catch up with the economic growth of recent years. Production weakness during this period was a minor contributor to price strength. Declines from a year earlier averaged less than one-half percent. A May-July collapse in milk per cow generated additional price strength. Wet spring weather reduced hay and pasture quality and cool temperatures in the North slowed forage development. A reduction in bST use likely also was a factor in the rapid drops in output per cow. High prices of grain and other concentrates were a contributing --not primary -- cause of production weakness. Milk prices have risen enough to support expanding milk production, even with current feed prices. However, high concentrate prices reduce the incentive to correct forage deficiencies with grain feeding, and availability concerns may have farmers trying to stretch their current feed stocks through harvest. Prices are projected to start declining in autumn and prices will be vulnerable to sharp reaction to tighter-than-expected conditions. But the timing is very uncertain, consumer response to demand-driven price increases tends to be gradual. However, recovery in milk per cow could be quick if the spring damage was not too severe. With new-crop feeds available, a rise in autumn milk per cow would alter market conditions significantly. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRODUCTION INDICATORS Jul-95 May-96 Jun-96 Jul-96 Cattle: On feed - 7 States, 1,000+ Hd 7,734 7,758 7,253 6,578 Net placements 1,355 1,242 1,021 1,437 Marketings 1,698 1,747 1,696 1,678 Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 555,578 567,484 571,385 562,657 Chicks hatched (000)/2 673,687 698,176 670,593 677,611 Hatching egg layers/1 48,920 50,150 50,097 49,332 Pullets placed (000) 6,302 6,776 6,169 6,422 Hvy-type hen slaughter 4,874 5,266 5,629 5,500 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 39,010 37,018 38,082 37,619 Poults placed (000) 29,013 29,712 27,943 29,060 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.)/2 432 446 436 455 Table egg layers, (000)/1 237,391 242,969 241,641 242,652 Table eggs/100 layers/1 71.3 71.2 71.3 72.5 Chicks hatched (000) 29,554 38,477 33,998 33,828 Lt.-type hen slaughter 7,037 8,431 6,469 7,000 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- ESTIMATED RETURNS Aug-95 Jun-96 Jul-96 Aug-96 /* Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 57.44 58.49 56.87 59.13 Selling price 61.95 61.37 64.07 66.80 Net margin 4.51 2.88 7.20 7.67 N. Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price /3 36.64 44.25 45.36 48.76 Selling price 49.68 55.98 59.13 59.25 Net margin 13.04 11.73 13.77 10.49 Broiler Wholesale cost 49.12 58.10 59.18 58.58 Wholesale price 61.74 65.52 64.58 64.00 Net margin 12.62 7.42 5.40 5.42 Turkey Wholesale cost 60.98 71.93 76.38 78.02 Wholesale price 68.77 67.10 67.61 68.00 Net margin 7.79 -4.83 -8.77 -10.02 Egg Wholesale cost 68.75 84.71 83.69 83.50 Wholesale price 77.19 82.37 84.39 91.00 Net margin 8.44 -2.34 0.70 7.50 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* estimate --------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHOLESALE PRICES Aug-95 Jun-96 Jul-96 Aug-96 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 102.55 100.70 101.53 104.70 Choice 1-3 700-850# 101.78 100.69 101.01 103.70 Select 1-3 700-850# 92.98 92.02 94.47 99.00 Cutter Cow 68.23 58.34 58.96 61.60 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 86.61 79.60 82.84 86.50 Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 88.70 80.56 81.70 82.25 Hide & offal value 8.59 8.45 9.05 9.30 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 173.14 NA 166.61 174.25 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 67.91 73.94 79.08 80.50 Loins, 14-18 lb. 127.98 115.73 126.16 120.00 Bellies, 12-14 lb. 52.42 72.64 89.49 89.50 Hams, 20-26 lb. 64.27 71.88 77.27 81.00 Trimmings, 72% fresh 48.78 66.30 68.45 71.00 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. down, Choice 180.25 201.25 199.25 196.75 55-65 lb., Choice 180.25 201.25 196.75 196.75 Broilers 12 City Avg. 61.74 65.52 64.58 64.00 Georgia dock 58.62 63.47 64.83 65.00 Northeast Breast, boneless 202.11 193.90 204.86 201.00 Breast, Ribs on 102.63 97.86 104.40 98.00 Legs, whole 53.35 59.47 59.71 58.00 Leg quarters 39.37 41.88 41.90 42.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 69.93 70.04 70.50 71.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 68.52 65.85 65.66 65.00 Drumsticks 22.51 24.62 24.90 31.00 Wings, full cut 25.16 30.57 31.49 36.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 77.19 82.37 84.39 91.00 New York 72.80 79.40 80.95 87.00 /* Estimate --------------------------------------------------------------------------- RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Jul-95 May-96 Jun-96 Jul-96 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 287.4 276.6 276.3 277.6 Beef - All Fresh 258.1 249.2 248.4 249.6 Ground Beef 136.5 131.9 132.4 135.2 Rib roast 500.1 473.3 488.0 482.4 T-bone steak 618.4 582.1 581.9 595.6 Pork 191.4 213.6 222.5 225.7 Bacon 190.6 234.5 249.3 254.2 Chops 321.2 334.2 353.3 348.1 Picnic 108.7 118.6 118.0 122.4 Chicken - Composite 140.9 149.1 150.6 149.9 Whole, fresh 91.9 94.9 96.8 97.2 Breast - bone in 194.6 201.8 208.9 202.4 Leg quarter 113.0 123.4 120.5 123.9 Turkey; whole frozen 105.0 104.3 104.1 104.4 Eggs, Grade A, Large 87.9 102.1 94.5 104.2 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 152.5 156.6 156.7 157.0 All food 148.1 152.0 152.6 153.2 All meat 134.2 136.4 138.8 139.6 Beef & veal 133.5 131.3 131.9 132.3 Pork 133.7 142.1 148.8 150.4 Poultry 142.5 149.6 151.3 152.7 Dairy Products 132.9 137.6 139.8 142.0 Fluid milk & cream 131.9 137.7 140.7 142.4 Manufactured products 134.4 138.2 139.5 142.2 Price Spreads Cents/lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 29.4 26.2 26.7 24.0 Wholesale to retail 128.9 127.6 121.7 122.0 Farmers share (%) 45.0 44.0 46.0 47.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 26.9 29.1 28.0 28.9 Wholesale to retail 89.8 92.8 105.6 102.9 Farmers share (%) 39.0 43.0 40.0 42.0 Poultry and eggs Wholesale to retail Broilers 75.4 77.8 79.5 79.9 Retail to consumer Turkey 30.8 29.3 28.0 27.8 Eggs 14.4 23.0 13.1 20.8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIVESTOCK PRICES Aug-95 Jun-96 Jul-96 Aug-96 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 61.95 61.37 64.07 66.60 Nebraska Direct 62.18 61.56 63.79 66.80 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 39.16 34.53 34.39 34.00 Utility boning 36.39 32.50 32.89 32.50 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 70.44 61.84 60.65 66.30 600-650 lb. 68.84 61.34 61.05 65.30 750-800 lb. 66.28 61.47 62.38 63.85 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 63.44 53.47 52.70 58.60 700-750 lb. 62.78 57.72 59.28 60.80 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 49.43 56.14 59.20 59.50 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 49.68 55.98 59.13 59.25 Sows 6 Markets 35.92 47.21 48.25 49.75 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) 30.00 NA NA NA Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 87.00 97.50 92.67 NA Ewes, Good 33.29 33.54 39.83 37.75 Feeder lambs, Choice 81.67 99.92 93.17 86.75 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- GRAIN AND FEED PRICES Aug-95 Jun-96 Jul-96 Aug-96 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 2.78 4.74 4.70 4.63 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 4.76 6.00 5.29 4.98 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 166.70 238.80 252.48 260.00 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 87.00 96.90 92.90 Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 83.20 92.30 89.60 /* Estimates --------------------------------------------------------------------------- MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - Aug-95 Aug-96 Jun-96 Jul-96 Aug-96 /* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 16,618 17,410 2,186 2,194 2,272 Veal 202 240 29 32 31 Pork 11,684 11,235 1,206 1,339 1,405 Lamb 192 177 18 20 19 Total red meat 28,696 29,062 3,439 3,585 3,727 Broilers 16,629 17,610 2,060 2,200 2,225 Other chicken 337 338 40 43 38 Turkeys 3,358 3,616 455 490 475 Total poultry 20,324 21,563 2,556 2,733 2,738 Total meat & poultry 49,020 50,625 5,995 6,318 6,465 Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 23,652 24,952 3,146 3,148 3,249 Steers 12,426 12,641 1,631 1,644 1,647 Heifers 6,826 7,258 906 925 942 Beef Cows 2,041 2,618 335 317 351 Dairy Cows 1,905 1,982 214 222 244 Bulls and stags 454 472 60 60 65 Calves 922 1,150 136 160 154 Sheep 3,081 2,787 282 326 320 Hogs 63,208 60,878 6,532 7,338 7,690 Barrows & gilts 60,050 57,936 6,198 6,980 7,310 Sows 2,541 2,475 281 310 320 Broilers 4,948,963 5,074,849 596,642 650,000 655,000 Turkeys 182,311 191,999 24,268 26,000 26,000 Aug-95 May-96 Jun-96 Jul-96 Aug-96 /* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 722 699 701 704 706 Calves 209 219 214 204 206 Sheep 62 66 64 63 63 Hogs 183 186 186 184 183 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 359.3 335.6 307.4 306.7 291.0 Pork 408.3 385.5 381.3 351.8 321.5 Bellies 47.1 57.2 63.5 56.8 28.5 Hams 110.3 61.6 79.8 79.8 78.6 Total chicken 516.2 706.2 655.2 665.7 620.9 Turkey 651.1 514.5 573.1 664.2 704.2 Frozen eggs 20.6 11.5 11.4 11.7 13.5 /* Estimates --------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS May-96 Jun-96 Jan - Jan - Jun-95 Jun-96 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 42,904 31,018 349,641 234,998 New Zealand 55,746 53,486 347,536 319,673 Canada 44,263 51,201 208,009 273,513 Brazil 8,232 5,515 31,545 39,960 Argentina 13,330 10,419 83,552 77,345 Central America 6,673 5,124 79,964 55,168 Other 6,363 7,283 11,319 32,614 Total 177,512 164,047 1,111,567 1,033,271 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 105,779 88,239 455,304 581,093 Canada 26,432 27,647 143,612 151,711 Mexico 13,254 14,321 41,718 69,278 Korea, Rep. 21,641 11,423 122,496 109,745 Caribbean 1,286 1,022 5,999 6,159 Other 15,203 11,349 50,867 78,590 Total 183,596 154,000 819,996 996,576 Cattle Imports Mexico 18,612 8,382 1,087,198 219,864 Canada 152,867 118,961 586,133 852,810 Over 700 lbs. 143,022 112,791 549,055 766,520 500-700 lbs. 2,996 2,049 3,508 54,341 Total 171,479 127,343 1,673,380 1,072,707 Cattle Exports Mexico 10,834 11,454 5,544 41,619 Canada 3,433 3,160 35,686 19,071 Total 15,838 16,229 45,038 76,702 Lamb Imports Australia 2,006 2,155 9,439 13,595 New Zealand 2,599 1,896 10,920 12,263 Total 4,696 4,052 20,668 26,155 Mutton Imports 1,768 1,458 13,091 10,604 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Customs Service YTD imports under WTO 8/19/95 8/18/96 % Chg Canada 216,074 301,991 39.8% TRQ Countries 689,719 588,460 -14.7% Australia 312,356 240,923 -22.9% New Zealand 310,286 277,690 -10.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------ May-96 Jun-96 Jan - Jan - Jun-95 Jun-96 Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lb. Canada 35,922 39,274 229,363 208,816 Denmark 10,840 9,494 75,683 60,687 Poland 969 855 6,275 5,053 Hungary 1,222 917 5,108 4,569 Netherlands 1,080 598 5,624 5,033 Other 3,002 2,430 18,100 14,848 Total 53,035 53,569 340,153 299,006 Pork Exports Japan 70,151 41,766 156,632 309,961 Canada 8,415 6,954 22,953 48,985 Mexico 3,467 2,531 30,433 24,329 Caribbean 1,020 678 5,423 4,880 Other 31,424 17,848 165,617 146,223 Total 114,477 69,777 381,058 534,379 Hog Imports Head Canada 222,897 195,472 682,426 1,260,755 Under 110 lb 64,941 46,765 306,164 368,202 Total 222,897 195,485 683,909 1,260,919 Hog Exports Total 2,430 1,160 5,209 37,869 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 20,936 25,063 116,039 118,448 Mexico 16,556 16,807 92,504 101,539 Hong Kong 99,901 68,794 441,750 493,523 Singapore 4,469 4,523 23,954 25,903 Canada 6,375 5,793 34,138 36,463 Former USSR 166,866 115,117 630,245 854,360 Total 406,704 307,556 1,728,930 2,132,025 Turkey Exports Mexico 11,420 12,681 62,346 70,132 S. Korea 2,537 1,054 18,497 12,914 Hong Kong 2,630 2,618 8,911 8,061 Total 27,923 45,169 141,815 188,805 Shell thousand dz. Egg Exports 9,507 9,257 49,310 55,872 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS Jul-95 May-96 Jun-96 Jul-96 Milk production Production - 21 States, Mil. lb 11,397 11,740 11,075 11,083 Milk cow number - 21 States, Thou 8,062 7,987 7,984 7,976 Milk per cow - 21 States, Lb 1,414 1,470 1,387 1,390 Production - U.S., Mil. lb 13,152 13,619 12,848 12,789 Milk prices: Dol./cwt All milk 12.00 14.30 14.60 15.00 Milk for fluid use 12.10 14.30 14.70 15.00 Manuf. grade milk 11.00 13.40 13.60 14.00 Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 11.23 13.77 13.92 14.49 Wholesale prices: cents/lb Grade A butter 74.5 87.8 129.3 145.3 Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 126.7 151.8 151.5 158.2 Barrels 122.8 146.2 145.8 152.3 Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 106.7 116.0 129.8 132.6 International prices: $/metric ton Butter 2,363 1,764 1,708 1,719 Nonfat dry milk 2,183 1,955 1,928 1,913 Beginning stocks: Mil. lb Commercial butter 46.3 37.3 33.0 28.6 Commercial American cheese 347.5 368.4 381.2 382.6 Other cheese 126.0 148.9 152.1 158.5 Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 141.9 100.3 86.5 82.2 All commercial (mf. basis) 5,493 5,531 5,575 5,532 All commercial (ss. basis) 6,669 6,497 6,491 6,510 All Government (mf. basis) 729 60 25 21 All Government (ss. basis) 266 122 20 20 USDA net removals: Mil. lb Butter 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cheese 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Nonfat dry milk 24.1 5.6 9.2 6.4 All products (mf basis 2/) 104.3 11.5 8.2 7.3 All products (ss basis 2/) 301.4 77.2 113.8 81.2 Jun-95 Apr-96 May-96 Jun-96 Dairy product output: Mil. lb Butter 98.4 107.9 100.7 72.2 American cheese 264.5 277.2 299.3 281.6 Other-than-American cheese 320.2 332.7 334.8 319.3 Frozen products 1/, Mil. gal. 128.6 107.2 119.3 129.0 All products (mf basis 2/) 8372.5 8226.2 8547.4 7891.5 Nonfat dry milk 128.1 113.1 112.6 88.4 Commercial disappearance: Mil. lb Butter 89.4 118.1 105.1 76.6 American cheese 261.8 258.6 286.6 280.5 Other-than-American cheese 341.6 346.2 354.5 335.8 Nonfat dry milk 92.3 100.9 121.3 84.2 All products (mf. basis) 13095.0 13321.0 13649.0 12977.0 Imports (mf basis 2/) 207.7 197.2 206.2 211.6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- ANNUAL FORECASTS 1994 1995 1996 1997 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 6,605 6,743 6,885 7,033 CPI-U, Annual % Change 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.8 Unemployment rate, % 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.8 3-Month T Bill,% 5.1 5.5 5.1 4.7 10-Year Bond,% 6.2 6.6 6.4 5.8 Production, million lb. Beef 24,278 25,115 25,669 25,950 Pork 17,658 17,812 17,067 17,350 Broilers 23,847 25,021 26,404 27,900 Turkeys 4,992 5,129 5,426 5,500 Total Red Meat & Poultry 71,796 74,071 75,552 77,641 Eggs, mil doz. 5,266 5,244 5,356 5,375 Milk 153,626 155,643 154,762 156,300 Commercial use (mf basis) 150,196 155,013 155,696 156,600 Net removals (mf basis) 4,812 2,148 259 1,000 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 67.0 67.4 67.4 67.0 Pork 53.1 52.4 48.8 49.1 Broilers 69.8 69.7 71.3 74.1 Turkeys 17.8 17.9 18.5 18.7 Total Red Meat & Poultry 211.5 211.3 209.5 212.1 Eggs, number 238.6 234.5 236.0 234.6 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 68.84 66.24 63-65 63-68 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt. 77.72 68.03 59-62 62-67 Brk Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 42.51 35.58 39-41 34-36 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cwt 40.03 42.35 53-55 50-55 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 55.70 56.38 59-62 54-58 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 65.65 66.35 66-69 64-69 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 67.25 72.85 77-80 71-76 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 13.03 12.74 14.7-15.2 13.3-14.5 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 12.01 11.83 13.6-14.1 12.3-13.3 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 1,611 1,821 2,122 2,250 Beef & veal imports 2,368 2,104 2,058 2,025 Pork exports 531 770 1,010 1,064 Pork imports 743 664 607 605 Broiler exports 2,875 3,895 4,660 5,075 Turkey exports 281 348 383 405 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, May 1996 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- QUARTERLY 1994/95 FORECASTS QI'95 QII'95 QIII'95 QIV'95 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,701 6,714 6,776 6,781 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.1 3.4 2.0 2.4 Unemployment rate, % 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 7.5 6.6 6.3 5.9 Production, million lb. Beef 5,888 6,325 6,625 6,277 Pork 4,488 4,394 4,240 4,690 Broilers 6,147 6,356 6,182 6,336 Turkeys 1,196 1,297 1,289 1,347 Total Meat 17,993 18,617 18,555 18,906 Eggs, mil doz. 1,314 1,297 1,286 1,347 Milk (mf basis) 38,941 40,520 38,325 37,857 Commercial use 37,643 39,306 39,336 38,728 Net removals 1,046 749 242 111 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.3 17.1 17.6 16.4 Pork 13.1 12.9 12.7 13.7 Broilers 17.5 18.1 17.2 16.9 Turkeys 3.6 3.9 4.2 6.2 Total Meat 51.5 53.1 52.6 54.1 Eggs, number 59.2 58.0 57.8 59.5 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 71.51 64.70 62.65 66.10 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 72.62 65.77 66.17 67.55 Brk Cows,S. Falls 39.58 37.18 34.93 30.61 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 38.56 38.91 48.75 43.19 Broiler,12 City 51.70 53.50 60.70 59.60 Turkeys, Eastern 59.80 61.10 68.70 75.80 Eggs, New York 65.20 63.60 75.20 87.40 Milk, all at plant 12.57 12.23 12.40 13.77 Milk, M-W 11.68 11.23 11.62 12.80 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 368 452 499 502 Beef/veal imports 572 540 539 453 Pork exports 187 194 199 190 Pork imports 173 167 154 170 Broiler exports 873 856 1,019 1,147 Turkey exports 59 83 90 116 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of ProfessionalForecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 QI'96 QII'96 QIII'96 QIV'96 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,814 6,885 6,932 6,910 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.8 2.7 3.4 2.8 Unemployment rate, % 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.1 10-Year Bond,% 5.9 6.7 6.6 6.5 Production, million lb. Beef 6,302 6,642 6,475 6,250 Pork 4,389 4,103 4,150 4,425 Broilers 6,609 6,595 6,550 6,650 Turkeys 1,270 1,381 1,375 1,400 Total Meat 18,849 18,960 18,771 18,972 Eggs, mil doz. 1,334 1,322 1,325 1,375 Milk (mf basis) 39,111 39,851 37,800 38,000 Commercial use 37,856 40,040 38,800 39,000 Net removals 26 33 100 100 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.9 17.6 16.8 16.1 Pork 12.6 11.5 12.0 12.7 Broilers 17.8 18.2 17.8 17.5 Turkeys 3.7 4.0 4.4 6.4 Total Meat 52.0 52.1 51.9 53.5 Eggs, number 59.0 58.2 58.3 60.5 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 63.06 ERR 63-67 64-68 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 58.11 ERR 61-65 62-66 Brk Cows,S. Falls 32.52 ERR 33-35 62-66 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 46.23 ERR 57-61 53-55 Broiler,12 City 56.20 ERR 61-65 57-59 Turkeys, Eastern 64.80 ERR 64-68 70-74 Eggs, New York 89.60 ERR 73-77 68-72 Milk, all at plant 13.83 14 15.4-16.0 13.8-14.6 Milk, M-W 12.67 14 14.8-15.4 15.2-16.1 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 452 535 560 575 Beef/veal imports 508 525 525 500 Pork exports 221 350 225 214 Pork imports 144 148 148 167 Broiler exports 1,075 1,110 1,175 1,300 Turkey exports 96 75 92 120 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of ProfessionalForecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 QI'97 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,957 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.7 Unemployment rate, % 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 5.1 10-Year Bond,% 6.4 Production, million lb. Beef 6,100 Pork 4,275 Broilers 6,850 Turkeys 1,275 Total Meat 18,762 Eggs, mil doz. 1,325 Milk (mf basis) 38,900 Commercial use 37,900 Net removals 300 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.1 Pork 12.1 Broilers 18.6 Turkeys 4.0 Total Meat 51.7 Eggs, number 58.0 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 65-71 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 60-64 Brk Cows,S. Falls 34-36 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 50-54 Broiler,12 City 54-58 Turkeys, Eastern 58-62 Eggs, New York 66-72 Milk, all at plant 13.7-14.9 Milk, M-W 12.3-13.4 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 475 Beef/veal imports 500 Pork exports 242 Pork imports 154 Broiler exports 1,150 Turkey exports 87 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of ProfessionalForecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 -------------------------------------------------------------- END_OF_FILE