LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY October 23, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. LDP-M-34. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #LDP-M, $28/year. A consolidated subscription to all of the livestock, dairy, and poultry reports (34 issues/year) is also available as stock #LDP-A, $66/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. Note: Tables in this report will not appear in the proper alignment unless displayed or printed using both a fixed-pitch font, such as Courier, and an 80-character line width setting. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Feed costs have dropped sharply now that the harvest of 1996 crops is underway. The 1996 corn crop is forecast at 9.0 billion bushels, up 22 percent from last year. Farm corn prices during the 1996/97 marketing year are expected to average $2.80 to $3.20 per bushel, compared with $3.25 in 1995/96. The soybean crop is expected to total 2.346 billion bushels this year. Soybean meal prices (48 percent, Decatur) are expected to average $225 to $245 per ton in the 1996/97 marketing year, compared with $236 in 1995/96. The general economy in 1997 is expected to grow 2.0-2.5 percent, about the same as in 1996. Hogs and Pigs Inventory Declines The September Hogs and Pigs report indicates that producers continued to reduce their herds as feed costs plateaued at a high level in May through August. However, strong hog prices during the period kept producers' returns well above cash costs, averting a large liquidation of the herds. The September 1 breeding inventory was 2 percent below last year and the market hog inventory was down 4 percent from a year ago. The lower September 1 inventory of market hogs weighing 60-179 pounds and the March-May pig crop indicates that pork production will remain below a year earlier in the fourth quarter. The March-May pig crop has been revised downward by 398,000 head from the number reported in June. Because hog prices will likely be relatively high in the fourth quarter, producers are expected to keep marketings current. Commercial hog slaughter is forecast at 24.5 million head, down 4 percent from a year ago. The projected dressed weight is reduced 1 pound from last year's 186 pounds. Fourth-quarter production is forecast at 4,525 million pounds, down 4 percent from a year ago. For all of 1996, production is expected to be 4 percent below 1995. First-quarter slaughter comes mostly from the June-August pig crop and the September market hog inventory weighing under 60 pounds, which were 5 and 4 percent below a year ago. Slaughter in the first quarter is projected at 22.65 million head, down 4 percent from a year ago. The share of the pig crop and market hog inventory expected to be slaughtered tracks close to the previous 5-year average. Producers as of September 1 indicated intentions of having 2.8 million sows farrow during September-November. Given farrowing intentions and a continued rise in pigs per litter, the September-November pig crop is projected to be about 2.5 percent larger than in 1995. The projected pig crop indicates an April-June 1997 slaughter of about 22.9 million head, which would be 3 percent above 1996. The December 1996-February 1997 pig crop is projected to total about 23.4 million head, about 1.5 percent larger than a year earlier. The projection is based on September 1 farrowing intentions and the expectation that pigs per litter will rise to 8.65. This pig crop will supply most of the hogs for July-September 1997 slaughter, which is projected to be about 23.6 million head, nearly 4 percent higher than in 1996. In 1995 and 1996, third-quarter hog slaughter as a percentage of the December-February pig crop was below the historical level. Thus, with projected slaughter closer to the relationship's historical average, slaughter in July-September 1997 could be up more than the pig crop. Returns above cash costs are expected to continue positive as feed prices are projected to decline and hog prices to remain relatively strong. The favorable returns are expected to prompt producers to increase the number of sows farrowing in March-May 1997 by nearly 4 percent and the resulting pig crop is expected to be almost 6 percent larger than in 1996. Hog slaughter in fourth-quarter 1997 is projected to be about 4 percent larger than the forecast for the same period in 1996. The percentage of the March-May crop projected to be slaughtered in fourth-quarter 1996 is above the average of recent years. Hog Prices To Average in Mid-$5O's Hog prices are expected to average in the mid-$50's per cwt in fourth-quarter 1996 through third-quarter 1997. Continuing strong exports, economic growth, increasing food service demand, and relatively low pork stocks should support prices over the next 15 months. However, prices may be tempered by rising supplies of competing meats. Pork production declines will boost fourth-quarter 1996 and first-quarter 1997 prices above a year earlier. However, increased production in the second and third quarters of 1997 will put prices at or below 1996. Production is expected to rise about 4 percent in fourth-quarter 1997, which will push hog prices below $50 per cwt. Retail prices this year are expected to average about 10 percent above 1995, and rise an additional 2-3 percent in 1997. Farm-retail price spreads are widening in 1996 after narrowing in 1995. Spreads are expected to remain relatively wide in 1997. Japanese Trade Policy Continues as Driving Force In the first 7 months of 1996 the U.S. exported 592 million pounds of pork, up 34 percent from a year earlier. Large shipments to Japan last spring and healthy increases in exports to Canada largely account for the strong growth in pork exports. The threat of the Japanese Safeguard (SG) imposition drove the export market during January-July. The SG was the primary determinant in the pattern of exports to Japan, and also a contributing factor in the growth of U.S. exports to Canada. The SG is sanctioned by the World Trade Organization (WTO) as a legal means available to the Japanese government of protecting domestic pork producers from significant surges in imports of pork products. The SO effectively raises the minimum price of imported pork. It can be imposed when cumulative quarterly pork imports exceed the average import quantity for the same period in the previous 3 fiscal years by 119 percent or more. Broiler Production Costs Falling Recent declines in corn prices will lower the cost of producing broilers over the next few months. September corn and soybean meal prices yielded the lowest feed cost since February. Feed costs are still over 20 percent above the same month a year ago, but are 13 percent below the peak in July. These cost reductions and wholesale level prices that continue to hold 3-4 cents per pound above last year are likely encouraging higher production. Weekly production increases in early October continue at about 5 percent above a year ago as bird numbers and weights increase. The broiler hatchery supply flock was 1 percent larger than a year ago on September 1, but the rate of lay was nearly 3 percent higher than in 1995, when the flock was heat stressed. About 4 percent more broilers are expected to be available for slaughter this fall. Additional expansion may be possible later as cumulative potential placements to the hatchery supply flock show a 2-3 percent increase over a year ago for October 1996 through March 1997. Productivity levels will determine how many additional birds are available for placement in growout houses. Turkey Prices Stagnant Monthly average eastern region hen prices have fluctuated between 64 and 66 cents per pound for all of 1996. Despite some recent strength during October with prices reaching 68 cents, higher production projected for this fall and larger whole bird stocks may temper wholesale price increases. With the higher feed costs in 1996 turkey producers have been facing negative net returns all year. A 5-percent increase in poult placements during September indicates that producers are still planning to continue increasing production in 1997. Egg Production Increasing Strongly With the table egg production flock 3-4 percent larger than a year ago and productivity slightly higher, 4-5 percent more eggs are likely to be produced in October. Fourth-quarter production is expected to be up about 4 percent as the increase in the size of the flock relative to last year moderates later in the quarter. Strong demand for eggs from all markets has kept egg prices substantially above a year ago. Exports, egg breaking, and domestic demand were all substantially greater than last year in the third quarter. Domestic and breaking use are expected to continue strong, but likely at lower prices. Fourth-quarter exports are forecast for a smaller increase relative to a year ago. It is doubtful that egg prices can sustain as strong an increase for the fall holidays as they did last year. November and December egg prices are forecast weaker than a year ago. China Bans Broiler Imports from U.S. China has announced that it has banned all poultry imports (live, meat, and eggs) from 10 States: New York, New Jersey, Texas, North Carolina, Maryland, Arkansas, Minnesota, Utah, Wisconsin, and Florida. The largest impact will be felt in Arkansas, North Carolina, and Maryland, all of which are major poultry producers. The ban was set to go into effect on October 15, 1996, however, in many ports broiler products continue to enter. The reason given for the ban is that a strain of avian influenza (AI) was discovered in ostriches in Texas. The agency in charge of the ban is China's Animal and Plant Quarantine (CAPO). The USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has gone on record as saying that there have been no recorded outbreaks of AI in the United States among commercial broiler flocks. The U.S. poultry industry hopes that talks between the Chinese government and USDA agencies will be able to quickly resolve this issue. China is the second largest market for U.S. broiler exports. Much of these exports are transshipped through Hong Kong. In 1996, U.S. exports to Hong Kong and direct shipments to China are forecast at 1. 2 billion pounds. Exports to Hong Kong and China consist largely of products such as wings, wing tips, and feet. Large scale alternative markets for items such as wing tips and feet do not exist in the United States. If exports to China are disrupted for any length of time these items will likely go to renderers and much of the impact will be on the profit margins of poultry processors and not on broiler product prices or domestic supplies. Beef Supplies Rise; Exports Languish Cow slaughter is rising seasonally as this year's calf crop is weaned. Continued weak feeder cattle prices and hay supply concerns are likely to result in even closer culling of the cow herd. Although the hay crop in the October Crop Production report was revised upward from the 148,515,000 tons estimated in August to 151,840,000 tons, supplies remain tight due to supplemental drought feeding this past summer. In addition to increased cow slaughter, the October Cattle on Feed report (covering feed lots with over 1,000 head of capacity in the 7 monthly reporting States) indicated inventories were down only 3 percent from a year earlier. Placements on feed during September were up 4 percent from a year earlier, following gains of 6 and 19 percent in July and August. Fed cattle marketings in September were down 16 percent, largely due to lower spring placements, but also due to a slower marketing pace. Increased fed cattle marketings at heavier slaughter weights are likely as soon as mid-November, but greatest pressure will be in December through at least first-quarter 1997. Increased placements since early summer and heavy feeder cattle placement weights are likely to push up slaughter levels, as export demand for higher quality beef remains very sluggish while the Japanese market remains concerned with E-coli problems in its food supply. Prices for fed cattle likely peaked in September near $71 per cwt and are expected to fall to the mid-$60's by late fall. If world export demand for beef remains sluggish, more production will have to be absorbed domestically, likely along with larger beef imports as other countries seek alternative markets for their beef. U.S. beef exports in August were down 16 percent from a year earlier, and exports to Japan, the largest market, were down 23 percent. Exports to the Republic of Korea in August remained very sluggish, down 34 percent from a year earlier, due to a strong dollar against the won. Mexico continues to show strength and was the only major market showing growth this summer. With the world export market under continued pressure due to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE or Mad Cow disease) in Europe and E. coli in Japan, larger quantities are being priced into the U.S. market. U.S. beef imports were above a year earlier in August, with largest year-to-year increases coming from Canada, Australia, and Brazil. Imports from New Zealand were well below a year ago. Imports are likely to remain up until world health concerns related to BSE and E. coli come under control. Milk Production Creeps Back Recovering milk production has eased very tight dairy markets. Exchange prices for cheese and butter have declined sharply from early peaks, although nonfat dry milk prices have held. By early 1997, wholesale prices will be considerably below September levels. However, first-half prices will remain relatively strong as brisk demand, forage quality problems, and high concentrate feed prices will keep dairy markets fairly tight. Milk per cow in the 22 monthly reporting States returned to the 1995 level in July and posted an almost 1-percent increase in August. Quality problems for later hay cuttings are not as severe as those of the first cutting. Despite this partial recovery, milk per cow remains fairly weak -- up only 1. 4 percent from 2 years ago. Even with the relatively unfavorable milk-feed price ratios of recent years, growth in milk per cow would be expected to exceed 1 percent per year. Milk cow numbers continue to run slightly more than 1 percent below a year earlier. Although a significant number of producers probably would like to expand their operations in response to recent prices, the lack of a secure base of acceptable quality forage has been a substantial deterrent to growth. In addition, expansion in western milk production has stayed relatively modest. Milk production in late 1996 and in 1997 is projected to resume gradual growth. Relatively high returns over concentrate costs are expected to overcome feed problems. Fourth-quarter output is projected to be near a year earlier, while 1997 growth is expected to offset 1996's 1-percent decrease. Principal Contributors (202) 219-1285 Leland Southard (Coordinator), Milton Madison (Broilers, Turkeys, Eggs), Dave Harvey (Poultry Trade), Ron Gustafson (Cattle, Red Meat Trade), Mildred Haley (Pork Trade), Jim Miller (Dairy, Dairy Trade), LaVerne Williams (Statistics). PRODUCTION INDICATORS Sep-95 Jul-96 Aug-96 Sep-96 Cattle: On feed - 7 States, 1,000+ Hd 7,189 6,578 6,337 6,612 Net placements 2,127 1,437 1,928 2,206 Marketings 1,594 1,678 1,653 1,332 Eggs in incubators(000) /1 555,742 562,657 566,490 563,188 Chicks hatched (000)/2 638,901 677,611 688,591 656,696 Hatching egg layers/1 49,155 49,332 48,707 49,664 Pullets placed (000) 6,288 6,422 6,518 6,166 Hvy-type hen slaughter 4,815 5,630 4,527 5,500 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 31,195 37,619 36,141 31,929 Poults placed (000) 23,070 28,881 27,733 24,231 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.)/2 422 456 456 442 Table egg layers, (000)/1 237,725 242,652 244,923 245,290 Table eggs/100 layers/1 71.3 72.5 72.2 71.8 Chicks hatched (000) 33,578 33,828 32,474 31,956 Lt.-type hen slaughter 7,212 7,113 6,607 7,000 Oct-95 Aug-96 Sep-96 Oct-96 /* Breakeven price /3 59.92 59.13 61.69 66.31 Selling price 64.89 67.15 71.12 70.60 Net margin 4.97 8.02 9.43 4.29 N. Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price /3 37.46 48.76 49.22 49.90 Selling price 45.59 59.59 54.53 55.50 Net margin 8.13 10.83 5.31 5.60 Broiler Wholesale cost 49.56 58.58 58.66 57.49 Wholesale price 58.79 64.07 64.01 63.00 Net margin 9.23 5.49 5.35 5.51 Turkey Wholesale cost 63.10 78.02 77.04 77.27 Wholesale price 75.89 67.54 67.18 69.00 Net margin 12.79 -10.48 -9.86 -8.27 Egg Wholesale cost 69.29 83.50 81.03 75.86 Wholesale price 79.78 92.11 94.32 89.00 Net margin 10.49 8.61 13.29 13.14 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* Estimate LIVESTOCK PRICES Oct-95 Aug-96 Sep-96 Oct-96 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 64.89 67.15 71.12 70.60 Nebraska Direct 64.44 66.82 70.77 70.40 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 34.44 33.76 31.91 31.00 Utility boning 32.25 32.15 30.19 29.50 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 64.33 65.88 65.72 65.35 600-650 lb. 64.10 64.22 62.50 63.25 750-800 lb. 66.68 63.53 63.70 63.90 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 56.83 58.28 57.50 54.25 700-750 lb. 61.63 60.64 59.48 57.90 6 Markets 45.15 59.81 54.87 55.50 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 45.59 59.59 54.53 55.50 Sows 6 Markets 39.79 50.84 48.95 50.00 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) 31.56 NA NA NA Sheep & lamb prices Slaughter lambs, Choice 75.50 83.75 84.40 83.00 Ewes, Good 29.80 38.36 41.45 36.00 Feeder lambs, Choice 80.78 87.50 91.80 90.00 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES Oct-95 Aug-96 Sep-96 Oct-96 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 3.09 4.48 3.39 2.84 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 5.28 4.96 4.66 4.69 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 193.90 261.19 276.36 247.00 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 87.20 96.00 95.50 Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 83.00 92.90 90.10 /* Estimates WHOLESALE PRICES Oct-95 Aug-96 Sep-96 Oct-96 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 107.77 104.43 105.93 108.55 Choice 1-3 700-850# 106.85 103.34 104.47 106.95 Select 1-3 700-850# 93.03 98.77 99.32 99.50 Cutter Cow 61.51 61.10 57.64 58.30 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 83.88 86.31 80.42 83.75 Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 90.00 87.38 86.19 85.00 Hide & offal value 8.38 9.65 9.92 9.65 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 190.28 NA 178.07 176.00 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 66.49 79.97 74.54 75.50 Loins, 14-18 lb. 108.23 118.18 112.28 119.00 Bellies, 12-14 lb. 56.20 88.40 68.12 62.50 Hams, 20-26 lb. 69.45 81.03 82.65 79.50 Trimmings, 72% fresh 56.84 69.95 68.85 68.50 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. down, Choice 162.25 178.13 173.75 171.00 55-65 lb., Choice 162.25 182.50 177.25 171.00 Broilers 12 City Avg. 58.79 64.07 64.01 63.00 Georgia dock 57.80 65.07 65.21 64.00 Northeast Breast, boneless 173.64 201.43 190.33 169.00 Breast, Ribs on 83.47 98.10 92.12 81.00 Legs, whole 55.78 57.48 59.13 59.00 Leg quarters 41.82 42.31 44.53 45.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 76.01 71.24 70.83 70.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 76.73 64.94 64.16 68.00 Drumsticks 28.21 31.45 33.78 36.00 Wings, full cut 30.89 37.14 39.02 41.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 79.78 92.11 94.32 89.00 New York 79.40 86.86 89.95 86.00 /* Estimate RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Sep-95 Jul-96 Aug-96 Sep-96 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 283.5 277.6 281.1 280.7 Beef - All Fresh 254.8 247.5 250.8 249.5 Ground Beef 137.6 135.2 139.1 136.0 Rib roast 492.7 482.4 492.5 504.2 T-bone steak 594.8 595.6 597.1 580.1 Pork 198.0 225.7 231.4 234.2 Bacon 204.2 254.2 268.2 280.9 Chops 330.6 348.1 350.2 350.5 Picnic 108.3 122.4 126.6 127.4 Chicken - Composite 147.0 149.9 151.9 157.5 Whole, fresh 93.9 97.2 99.0 100.6 Breast - bone in 201.7 202.4 205.3 213.5 Leg quarter 119.5 123.9 125.2 129.9 Turkey; whole frozen 108.6 104.4 108.6 106.5 Eggs, Grade A, Large 95.6 104.2 107.2 115.0 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 153.2 157.0 157.3 157.8 All food 148.9 153.2 153.7 154.6 All meat 135.5 139.6 141.8 143.0 Beef & veal 133.3 132.3 134.4 134.7 Pork 137.8 150.4 153.5 156.3 Poultry 145.9 152.7 154.5 155.8 Dairy Products 132.3 142.0 144.6 146.7 Fluid milk & cream 131.3 142.4 144.4 145.6 Manufactured products 134.0 142.2 145.5 148.5 Price Spreads Cents/lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 29.2 24.0 22.7 18.1 Wholesale to retail 120.9 122.0 121.2 118.9 Farmers share (%) 47.0 47.0 49.0 51.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 30.1 28.9 32.2 34.9 Wholesale to retail 91.2 102.9 104.8 113.4 Farmers share (%) 39.0 42.0 41.0 37.0 Poultry and eggs Wholesale to retail Broilers 79.8 79.9 81.2 87.9 Retail to consumer Turkey 27.0 27.9 32.1 30.3 Eggs 17.0 20.8 16.1 21.7 MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - Oct-95 Oct-96 Aug-96 Sep-96 Oct-96 /* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 21,019 21,504 2,260 1,924 2,182 Veal 255 306 32 31 34 Pork 14,696 14,204 1,394 1,410 1,570 Lamb 235 221 20 20 23 Total red meat 36,205 36,235 3,706 3,385 3,809 Broilers 20,919 22,217 2,260 2,115 2,400 Other chicken 419 419 35 40 45 Turkeys 4,265 4,572 481 450 500 Total poultry 25,604 27,208 2,776 2,605 2,945 Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 29,826 30,751 3,210 2,733 3,106 Steers 15,467 15,298 1,591 1,297 1,457 Heifers 8,727 9,026 950 826 963 Beef Cows 2,656 3,287 340 301 357 Dairy Cows 2,398 2,532 259 244 267 Bulls and stags 578 608 70 65 62 Calves 1,173 1,465 158 149 162 Sheep 3,811 3,493 330 323 374 Hogs 79,666 77,077 7,675 7,685 8,530 Barrows & gilts 75,759 73,480 7,327 7,360 8,170 Sows 3,153 2,995 290 266 290 Broilers 6,197,666 6,366,223 654,971 610,000 675,000 Turkeys 233,898 246,261 26,717 25,000 28,000 Oct-95 Jul-96 Aug-96 Sep-96 Oct-96 /* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 717 704 711 708 708 Calves 212 204 206 209 211 Sheep 61 63 61 61 62 Hogs 185 184 183 183 184 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 347.7 306.7 291.1 305.1 314.4 Pork 332.6 351.8 322.7 320.0 338.3 Bellies 6.3 56.8 28.5 19.0 12.7 Hams 114.7 79.8 78.9 83.4 92.4 Total chicken 500.1 665.7 623.5 616.1 602.4 Turkey 686.0 664.2 705.9 723.2 719.5 Frozen eggs 16.2 11.7 13.5 15.0 14.5 /* Estimates U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Jul-96 Aug-96 Jan - Jan - Aug-95 Aug-96 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 59,520 59,808 474,219 354,326 New Zealand 49,900 40,585 474,055 410,158 Canada 51,103 55,568 283,834 380,184 Brazil 9,323 10,874 45,779 60,157 Argentina 10,789 12,491 110,045 100,624 Central America 5,880 9,624 100,306 70,672 Other 9,074 8,600 15,359 50,287 Total 195,589 197,550 1,503,597 1,426,409 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 79,934 78,167 641,026 739,193 Canada 27,151 21,895 199,342 200,757 Mexico 16,082 16,862 62,320 102,223 Korea, Rep. 12,125 14,229 167,996 136,099 Caribbean 977 835 7,721 7,971 Other 11,611 19,729 77,652 109,930 Total 147,880 151,717 1,156,058 1,296,173 Cattle Imports Mexico 5,869 4,783 1,234,346 230,516 Canada 117,522 136,421 771,120 1,106,753 Over 700 lbs. 112,069 129,892 726,163 1,008,481 500-700 lbs. 1,006 1,605 4,393 56,952 Total 123,395 141,204 2,005,515 1,337,306 Cattle Exports Mexico 10,842 12,052 8,263 64,513 Canada 2,732 2,203 44,705 24,006 Total 14,012 14,324 58,348 105,038 Lamb Imports Australia 1,844 1,903 11,739 17,342 New Zealand 2,116 2,865 15,179 17,245 Total 3,960 4,768 27,281 34,883 Mutton Imports 2,477 2,121 14,829 15,202 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Customs Service YTD imports under WTO 10/14/95 10/13/96 % Chg Canada 277,977 384,703 3839.4% TRQ Countries 839,270 721,662 -1401.3% Australia 384,688 308,669 -1976.1% New Zealand 364,136 323,072 -1127.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Jul-96 Aug-96 Jan - Jan - Aug-95 Aug-96 Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lbs. Canada 35,956 37,363 305,082 282,135 Denmark 12,307 10,582 95,052 83,576 Poland 753 786 7,444 6,592 Hungary 1,060 875 7,894 6,504 Netherlands 997 306 7,200 6,336 Other 2,340 2,478 22,676 19,666 Total 53,413 52,389 445,348 404,808 Pork Exports Japan 29,588 31,688 226,025 371,237 Canada 8,296 6,873 33,443 64,154 Mexico 3,580 2,794 39,501 30,704 Caribbean 863 810 6,763 6,554 Other 14,490 19,439 201,867 180,153 Total 56,817 61,605 507,599 652,802 Hog Imports Head Canada 248,513 270,760 1,012,513 1,780,028 Under 110 lb 72,341 77,967 441,270 518,510 Total 248,513 270,760 1,014,859 1,780,192 Hog Exports Total 2,698 1,808 7,639 42,375 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lbs. Japan 21,100 23,718 162,249 163,266 Mexico 19,685 17,707 129,755 138,930 Hong Kong 80,894 92,095 647,147 666,513 Singapore 3,804 4,193 32,715 33,899 Canada 6,129 6,293 48,482 48,885 Former USSR 152,826 177,057 891,041 1,184,242 Total 351,803 428,142 2,438,986 2,911,970 Turkey Exports Mexico 11,229 11,485 80,224 92,846 S. Korea 459 3,057 25,199 16,430 Hong Kong 2,817 3,423 12,134 14,301 Total 40,979 50,744 202,228 280,527 Shell Thousand doz. Egg Exports 9,360 9,661 65,397 74,892 MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS Sep-95 Jul-96 Aug-96 Sep-96 Milk production Production - 21 States, Mil. lb 10,729 11,142 10,970 10,675 Milk cow number - 21 States, Thou 8,061 7,977 7,969 7,961 Milk per cow - 21 States, Lb 1,331 1,397 1,377 1,341 Production - U.S., Mil. lb 12,381 12,850 12,652 12,311 Milk prices: $/cwt All milk 12.80 15.30 15.80 16.20 Milk for fluid use 12.80 15.40 15.80 16.20 Manuf. grade milk 12.10 13.90 14.60 15.20 Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 12.08 14.49 14.94 15.37 Wholesale prices: Cents/lb. Grade A butter 80.9 145.3 145.5 145.5 Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 141.3 158.2 167.6 173.9 Barrels 135.1 152.3 160.5 168.1 Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 107.2 132.6 130.9 131.9 International prices: $/metric ton Butter 2,500 1,583 1,620 1,575 Nonfat dry milk 2,215 1,825 1,797 1,767 Beginning stocks: Mil. lbs. Commercial butter 34.3 28.9 30.9 26.4 Commercial American cheese 339.1 385.3 386.7 368.5 Other cheese 118.8 150.3 139.1 121.6 Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 102.1 82.5 76.8 66.1 All commercial (mf. basis) 5,067 5,501 5,445 5,093 All commercial (ss. basis) 6,021 6,459 6,266 5,838 All Government (mf. basis) 361 21 21 24 All Government (ss. basis) 234 20 9 11 USDA net removals: Mil. lbs. Butter 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cheese 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 Nonfat dry milk 18.0 5.0 4.0 1.0 All products (mf basis 2/) 63.8 7.9 6.8 3.8 All products (ss basis 2/) 229.7 65.3 53.3 15.6 Aug-95 Jun-96 Jul-96 Aug-96 Dairy product output: Mil. lbs. Butter 76.0 72.9 72.1 71.1 American cheese 245.1 281.9 267.7 261.9 Other-than-American cheese 311.0 319.4 303.9 317.7 Frozen products 1/, mil. gal. 125.0 128.8 130.0 117.9 All products (mf basis 2/) 7694.5 7911.1 7699.7 7523.0 Nonfat dry milk 82.4 93.4 80.7 61.7 Commercial disappearance: Mil. lb. Butter 86.6 77.1 70.1 75.6 American cheese 268.2 278.1 268.7 278.6 Other-than-American cheese 337.0 344.0 341.4 363.6 Nonfat dry milk 94.4 91.0 82.7 69.2 All products (mf. basis) 13334.0 12994.0 13036.0 13178.0 Imports (mf basis 2/) 222.3 211.6 257.9 302.1 Annual Forecasts 1994 1995 1996 1997 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, billions '87$ 6,605 6,743 6,899 7,050 CPI-U, Annual % Change 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.0 Unemployment rate, % 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.5 3-Month T Bill,% 5.1 5.5 5.1 5.2 10-Year Bond,% 6.2 6.6 6.5 6.6 Beef 24,278 25,115 25,569 26,100 Pork 17,658 17,811 17,166 17,500 Broilers 23,847 25,021 26,466 27,900 Turkeys 4,992 5,129 5,452 5,500 Total Red Meat & Poultry 71,796 74,070 75,659 77,946 Eggs, mil. doz. 5,266 5,244 5,407 5,525 Milk 153,626 155,643 154,500 155,700 Commercial use (mf basis) 150,196 155,013 155,600 156,800 Net removals (mf basis) 4,812 2,148 100 200 Per capita consumption, retail lbs. Beef 67.0 67.4 67.5 67.4 Pork 53.1 52.4 49.3 49.5 Broilers 69.8 69.7 71.7 74.1 Turkeys 17.8 17.9 18.6 18.7 Total Red Meat & Poultry 211.5 211.3 210.5 212.8 Eggs, number 238.6 234.5 237.7 240.7 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 68.84 66.24 ERR 62-67 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt. 77.72 68.03 ERR 62-67 Brk Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 42.51 35.57 ERR 33-36 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cwt 40.03 42.35 ERR 51-55 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 55.70 56.38 ERR 54-58 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 65.65 66.35 ERR 64-69 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 67.25 72.85 ERR 72-78 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 13.03 12.74 15.2-15.3 13.8-14.9 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 12.01 11.83 14.0-14.1 12.7-13.6 U.S. Trade, million lbs. Beef & veal exports 1,611 1,821 1,971 2,250 Beef & veal imports 2,368 2,104 2,094 2,025 Pork exports 531 770 948 1,064 Pork imports 743 664 614 605 Broiler exports 2,875 3,895 4,607 5,075 Turkey exports 281 348 419 435 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 Quarterly 1994/95 Forecasts QI'95 QII'95 QIII'95 QIV'95 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,701 6,714 6,776 6,781 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.1 3.4 2.0 2.4 Unemployment rate, % 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 7.5 6.6 6.3 5.9 Production, million lbs Beef 5,888 6,325 6,625 6,277 Pork 4,488 4,393 4,241 4,689 Broilers 6,147 6,356 6,182 6,336 Turkeys 1,196 1,297 1,289 1,347 Total Meat 17,993 18,616 18,556 18,905 Eggs, mil. doz. 1,314 1,297 1,286 1,347 Milk (mf basis) 38,941 40,520 38,325 37,857 Commercial use 37,643 39,306 39,336 38,728 Net removals 1,046 749 242 111 Consumption, retail lbs. Beef 16.3 17.1 17.6 16.4 Pork 13.1 12.9 12.7 13.7 Broilers 17.5 18.1 17.2 16.9 Turkeys 3.6 3.9 4.2 6.2 Total Meat 51.5 53.1 52.6 54.1 Eggs, number 59.2 58.0 57.8 59.5 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 71.51 64.70 62.65 66.10 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 72.62 65.77 66.17 67.55 Brk Cows,S. Falls 39.58 37.18 34.93 30.61 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 38.56 38.91 48.75 43.19 Broiler,12 City 51.70 53.50 60.70 59.60 Turkeys, Eastern 59.80 61.10 68.70 75.80 Eggs, New York 65.20 63.60 75.20 87.40 Milk, all at plants 12.57 12.23 12.40 13.77 Milk, M-W 11.68 11.23 11.62 12.80 U.S. Trade, million lbs. Beef/veal exports 368 452 499 502 Beef/veal imports 572 540 539 453 Pork exports 187 194 199 190 Pork imports 173 167 154 170 Broiler exports 873 856 1,019 1,147 Turkey exports 59 83 90 116 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 QI'96 QII'96 QIII'96 QIV'96 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,814 6,885 6,929 6,969 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.8 3.8 2.7 2.9 Unemployment rate, % 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.4 3-Month T Bill,% 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 10-Year Bond,% 5.9 6.7 6.7 6.7 Production, million lbs. Beef 6,302 6,642 6,375 6,250 Pork 4,388 4,103 4,150 4,525 Broilers 6,609 6,607 6,600 6,650 Turkeys 1,270 1,382 1,400 1,400 Total Meat 18,848 18,973 18,755 19,083 Eggs, mil doz. 1,334 1,323 1,350 1,400 Milk (mf basis) 39,111 39,706 37,813 37,800 Commercial use 37,856 39,934 38,900 38,800 Net removals 26 33 Consumption, retail lbs. Beef 16.9 17.5 16.9 16.2 Pork 12.6 11.6 12.1 13.0 Broilers 17.8 18.4 18.0 17.5 Turkeys 3.7 4.0 4.5 6.4 Total Meat 52.0 52.3 52.2 54.0 Eggs, number 59.0 58.2 59.1 61.4 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 63.06 60.26 67-67 67-69 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 58.11 56.87 63-63 63-65 Brk Cows,S. Falls 32.52 30.37 32-32 63-65 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 46.23 54.82 58-58 54-56 Broiler,12 City 56.20 61.10 64-64 57-59 Turkeys, Eastern 64.80 65.40 65-65 69-71 Eggs, New York 89.60 80.50 86-86 79-81 Milk, all at plant 13.83 14.27 16 16.8-17.2 Milk, M-W 12.67 13.59 15 15.0-15.3 U.S. Trade, million lbs. Beef/veal exports 452 544 475 500 Beef/veal imports 508 526 560 500 Pork exports 221 313 200 214 Pork imports 144 155 148 167 Broiler exports 1,075 1,057 1,175 1,300 Turkey exports 96 93 110 120 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 QI'97 QII'97 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 7,005 7,038 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.1 3.0 Unemployment rate, % 5.4 5.5 3-Month T Bill,% 5.3 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 6.7 6.6 Production, million lbs. Beef 6,300 6,500 Pork 4,200 4,250 Broilers 6,850 7,050 Turkeys 1,275 1,375 Total Meat 18,892 19,406 Eggs, mil doz. 1,350 1,375 Milk (mf basis) 38,700 40,300 Commercial use 37,900 40,000 Net removals 100 100 Consumption, retail lbs. Beef 16.6 16.8 Pork 11.9 11.8 Broilers 18.6 18.9 Turkeys 4.0 3.9 Total Meat 52.0 52.3 Eggs, number 59.1 59.9 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 63-67 62-68 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 60-64 61-67 Brk Cows,S. Falls 33-35 35-37 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 52-56 53-57 Broiler,12 City 54-58 56-60 Turkeys, Eastern 58-62 60-66 Eggs, New York 73-77 67-73 Milk, all at plants 14.6-15.6 13.1-14.2 Milk, M-W 13.1-14.0 12.0-13.1 U.S. Trade, million lbs. Beef/veal exports 475 575 Beef/veal imports 500 525 Pork exports 242 350 Pork imports 154 154 Broiler exports 1,150 1,225 Turkey exports 90 105 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters,Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 END-OF-FILE