LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY January 15, 1997 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. LDP-M-37. Subcriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock number LDP-M, $18/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. livestock and poultry producers' returns are expected to improve sharply now that feed costs have dropped from their record high last summer. Red meat production is expected to be down slightly from 1996, reflecting the reduction in animal inventories. Hog and cattle prices are expected to move slightly higher. However, poultry production is expected to rise about 5 percent, mostly due to higher broiler prices last year and continuing favorable returns. Broiler prices are expected to average 1-4 cents below 1996's record high. Pork, beef, and poultry exports are expected to continue to increase. Corn stocks on December 1 were up 13 percent from a year earlier, but are 15 percent below 2 years ago. The third largest corn crop on record and reduced exports contributed to increased stocks, sending prices sharply lower. The farm price of corn in December averaged $2.56 per bushel, compared with $3.07 a year ago. The season average farm corn price for the 1996/97 marketing year is projected to be $2.55-$2.85 per bushel, compared with $3.24 in 1995/96 and $2.26 in 1994/95. Declining feed prices since midyear will likely reduce the costs of raising hogs by more than $10 per cwt, when fully reflected in the costs of hogs being sold this fall. Feed costs for hogs sold in December were $13 above a year earlier. Current expectations are that for hogs sold next December, feed costs may be near those of 2 years ago. Record midyear corn prices were likely a major contributor to the hog inventory reduction, especially in the North Central States where many producers feed their own corn. These producers may have elected to sell corn at relatively high prices, either exiting the industry or substantially reducing their size of operation. However, due to good foreign and domestic demand in 1996, hog prices were in the mid- to high-$50's per cwt except during the first quarter. Prices exceeded variable costs throughout the year. Hog Inventory Declines Despite relatively favorable returns, producers continued to reduce their herds. The December 1 hogs and pigs inventory totaled 56.2 million head, the lowest December inventory since 1990. The market hog inventory, at 49.5 million head, was 4 percent below last year and the previous quarter. Breeding hog numbers were the lowest on record for the date at 6.66 million head. Sow and boar slaughter during September-November was down 16 percent from a year ago, while additions to the breeding herd were down 20 percent. In contrast during June-August sow and boar slaughter was down 15 percent from a year ago, but additions to the breeding herd were down only 2 percent. With continued lower production, export growth, and population increases, per capita pork consumption is expected to drop about 1.5 pounds in 1997 from 1996. Hog prices are expected to be slightly higher in 1997, averaging in the mid-$50's, and be relatively steady throughout the year. The slightly higher prices and lower production costs will give producers much improved returns. The favorable returns should encourage expansion in the breeding herd later this year leading to increased pork production in 1998. Pork Production To Drop Based on the market hog inventory, pig crops, and farrowing intentions reported in December, pork production in 1997 will be about the same as in 1996, around 17.1 billion pounds. Projected pork production in the first quarter is 4.2 billion pounds, down 4 percent from a year earlier. The December 1 market hog inventory weighing 60-179 pounds was reported down 4 percent from a year ago. Also, the June-August pig crop was reported down 5 percent from a year ago. The market hog inventory and pig crop as a percentage of the projected first-quarter slaughter tracks close to the previous 5-year average. The September-November pig crop was 23.2 million head, down 1 percent from a year ago. Sows farrowing during the period were down 3 percent from a year ago, although producers reported intentions in September to have about the same number farrow as a year earlier. The pig crop indicates a April-June hog slaughter of about 22 million head, down 1 percent from last year. Dressed weights are expected to average about a pound heavier this year. Thus, pork production in the second quarter is projected at 4.1 billion pounds, about the same as last year. Producers reported intentions as of December 1 to have 1 percent more sows farrow in December-February than in the same period a year ago. In September producers said they intended to have 1 percent fewer sows farrow in this period. The increase in intentions may be due to reduced sow culling during the August-October breeding period, when sows likely were bred for another litter rather than sent to slaughter. If the intentions are realized, the December- February pig crop would be up about 3 percent, given the continued increase in pigs per litter. Based on historical relationships between the December-February pig crop and third-quarter slaughter, July- September slaughter would be about 23.7 million head, up about 4 percent from 1996. In 1996 slaughter as a percentage of the December-February pig crop was below the historical average. Sow farrowings in March-May will be about 2 percent below a year earlier, if producers follow through with their December intentions. The March-May pig crop would be down less than 1 percent from 1996, if pigs per litter continues their upward trend. The March-May pig crop provides a large proportion of fourth-quarter hog slaughter. Hog slaughter in fourth-quarter 1997 is projected to be about the same as in 1996. However, the average dressed weight is expected to be about a pound lighter, dropping expected production about 1 percent below 1996. Hog and Pork Prices To Rise Continued moderate economic growth, a sharp export increase, and lower per capita supplies are expected to boost 1997 hog prices about $2 per cwt above 1996's $53.45. Very little difference is expected among the quarterly average prices as seasonal quarterly production fluctuations will likely be dampened. Retail composite pork prices are expected to average 2-4 percent above 1996's $2.21 per pound. The farm-retail spread widened in 1996 to $1.36 per pound, compared to $1.28 in 1995. Spreads are expected to widen 3-4 percent further in 1997. Number of Operations Decline The number of operations with hogs declined 13 percent in 1996 to 157,450. Places with over 2,000 hogs on hand accounted for 51 percent the inventory, but only 3 percent of the operations. Operations with 5,000 or more hogs on hand totaled 1,400 and accounted for one-third of the U.S. hog inventory. The total number of hogs under contract by these large operations accounted for 21 percent of the Nation's hog inventory. Pork Exports To Increase The U.S. exported 793 million pounds of pork during January-October 1996, 22 percent more than a year earlier. Almost 90 percent of the increase is attributable to increased shipments to Japan. Japan remains the pre-eminent customer of U.S. exporters, accounting in 1996 for over 55 percent of total U.S. pork shipments. The pattern of exports to Japan in 1996 was largely driven by WTO-sanctioned Safeguard (SG) mechanisms imposed by Japan. U.S. exports to Japan were up dramatically in the first half of 1996, in anticipation of the SG. The SG mechanisms will continue to be major factors in 1997 trade with Japan. The SG mechanisms are WTO-legal means available to Japan to raise the minimum price of imported pork, thereby protecting domestic pork producers from significant surges in imports. There are three components to the SG mechanism, which can be imposed separately or simultaneously: one based on cumulative quarterly imports, another based on annual imports, and the Special SG, which is also based on annual imports in combination with the ratio of total Japanese pork imports to total Japanese pork consumption. The SG based on quarterly imports is imposed when cumulative quarterly imports exceed the average import quantity for the same period in the previous 3 fiscal years by 19 percent or more. This component of the SG was imposed from November 1, 1995 to March 31, 1996. The SG was imposed again on July 1, 1996, and is in place currently. It was due to be lifted on March 31, 1997, the end of the Japanese fiscal year. However, the second component of the SG mechanism--the annual SG-- allows the higher minimum import price to remain in place for an additional quarter, when the annual import quantity exceeds the previous year'ss import quantity by 19 percent or more. Quarterly estimates of Japanese imports for the Japanese fiscal year (JFY) 1996/97 indicate that last year's JFY 1995/96 total imports will be exceeded by more than 19 percent in the October- December 1996 (third) quarter, thus allowing Japan to hold the SG in place until July. Additionally, in December Japan announced its intention to impose the Special SG (SSG), the third component of the SG mechanism. The SSG raises the existing 4.8 percent tariff rate on imported pork cuts by 33 percent, to 6.5 percent, when (1) the ratio of total Japanese pork imports to total pork consumption is greater than 30 percent, and (2) when imports reach 105 percent of the previous year's imports. Japan indicated that in November, total JFY 1996/97 imports exceeded 105 percent of the year earlier total. The SSG will thus be in effect from January 1, 1997, through the end of the current JFY on March 31, 1997. U.S. pork exports to Japan under the SG imposed on July 1, 1996, have averaged about 34 million pounds (carcass weight) per month, compared with 51 million pounds in first-half 1996. Although increased shipments of frozen product, in anticipation of the SG imposition in January, contributed significantly to U.S. exports through October, shipments are not expected to depart dramatically from the average until spring 1997, when exports are expected to increase in anticipation of the lifting of the SG on July 1. Below average domestic production, higher domestic pork prices, and colder winter weather that encourages consumption of cooked meats will support winter prices for imported pork. Expiration of the SG on April 1, a WTO-mandated reduction of the import tariff rate to 4.7 percent, the traditional Japanese spring holidays, and anticipation of SG removal on July 1 will drive U.S. exports to Japan in spring 1997. USDA expects re-imposition of the SG in the third quarter of JFY 1997/98. Total U.S. exports are expected to be over 30 percent higher than in 1996, largely due to expected increases in shipments to Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Mexico, and Russia. U.S. Hog Imports Surge in October U.S. imports of Canadian hogs surged to record highs in October, when more than 280,000 hogs were imported from Canada. Seventy-five percent of Canadian hogs imported are slaughter animals; feeder pigs make up the balance. Relatively strong U.S. prices, favorable exchange rates, and low countervailing duties continue to provide strong buy-sell incentives for U.S. processors and Canadian producers, respectively. The U.S. is expected to import more than 2.7 million hogs in 1996, 1 million more than in 1995. Imports in 1997 are expected to increase somewhat from 1996 levels. Beef Herd Liquidation Status Awaited Cattle sector adjustments over the past 15 months have been rapid and will continue through winter. On January 31 USDA will release cattle inventory breakouts that will reflect just how sharp an adjustment has been made, how tight feeder cattle supplies will be over the next few years, and how large the base is for whatever expansion occurs as the 1997 grazing season begins. Grain prices are already down sharply from a year earlier, with additional declines expected later this year. Tight forage supplies and a series of winter storms continue to force more cows into the slaughter market. Although hay stocks on December 1, 1996, were only down 4 percent from a year earlier and about unchanged from 1995, stocks are being held to provide a margin for getting through any increased supplemental feeding pressures this winter. Hay prices remain well above last year's averages. Cow and heifer herd downsizing started in mid-1995, but the impact of tightening feeder cattle supplies will only begin to be felt this spring and affect beef production in second-half 1997. Steer slaughter in 1996 was down 4 percent, while heifer slaughter rose over 3 percent. About 16 percent of the total cow herd was slaughtered last year. Beef cow slaughter was up 24 percent, while dairy cow slaughter rose 6 percent. These strong slaughter numbers suggest sharply fewer heifers were bred to calve in 1997. Heifer slaughter will remain large through winter, the result of 7 percent more heifers on feed on October 1 in the 7 monthly reporting States. Steers on feed were down 8 percent. Poor fall pastures and declining grain prices led to large feedlot placements this past fall. The increased placements and continued large calf slaughter will cause feeder cattle supplies to tighten and likely create very strong demand for stocker cattle this spring as moisture conditions should be very favorable when the grazing season begins in most areas. Even as feeder cattle prices rise, fewer cattle will be available from Mexico as the Mexican inventory has been sharply reduced due to drought over the past several years. Mexican producers are expected to rebuild their herds and retain steer calves for more weight gain before exporting them. Larger grain supplies at lower prices in Canada will result in continued expansion of cattle feeding activities in Canada, and likely continued large shipments of slaughter cattle to the U.S. Cattle slaughter continues to increase following the large second-half 1996 feedlot placements and seasonally large cow slaughter, but weights remain well below a year earlier. Many cattle are likely being marketed ahead of schedule, although grading has not been up to expectations. Export demand, largely for Choice and Prime beef, likely remains weak, and hotel-restaurant demand following the holidays likely slowed. In November the price spread between Choice and Select boxed beef was nearly $20 per cwt, but has declined to about $5 in January. Light slaughter weights suggest supplies of Choice beef likely remain tight, but also that exports of high quality cuts remain very slow. Fed cattle prices are likely to remain in the mid-$60's in first-half 1997, but as higher quality beef supplies rise over the next few months, export demand will hold an important key to price strength. Exports to Japan are likely to remain sluggish until late winter. However, a drop in Japan's import tariff on April 1 and Japan's success in dealing with the E. coli problem in its food sector will be key factors in resuming the strong export trend that existed prior to mid-1996. Dairy Prices Recover Somewhat Wholesale cheese and butter prices had recovered from some of their earlier plunges by mid-January. Butter prices rose 16 cents per pound in mid-December, while cheese prices increased 9 cents in early January. Both rebounds were about a fifth of the early autumn drops. The earlier declines apparently were an over-reaction to an easing supply-demand balance. Butter prices are expected to stay near current levels during the winter. Post-holiday orders were reportedly strong, and retailers have been fairly aggressive about butter specials. The recent decision to resume export subsidies for milkfat will also lend strength to prices. These factors probably will offset normal seasonal weakness. Stagnant milk production and fairly good cheese demand finally overcame the price effects of backed up cheese supplies. Although small additional price increases are possible, cheese markets probably will be reasonably well balanced during the next few months. Expansion in milk production should make a little more milk available for cheese, but less cheese will be produced from nonfat dry milk. Still-high retail prices probably will limit gains in commercial use. Unlike butter and cheese prices, prices of nonfat dry milk have declined in a fairly orderly manner since early November. In mid- January, powder prices were 16 cents per pound below October and still slipping. Lower cheese prices simultaneously boosted production and reduced use of nonfat dry milk. Recovery in cheese prices and an expected increase in exports should start to stabilize nonfat dry milk prices. Wholesale prices could move substantially higher than now expected if there is substantial lingering damage from the winter storms in the West. Widespread flooding and even wider-spread mud problems that hit California, Washington, Idaho, and Oregon will cause increased culling, cow stress, and loss of stored feeds. The most affected areas probably produce about 15 percent of the U.S. milk supply. Persistent problems in these areas would significantly affect national supplies for most of 1997. Stronger Broiler Prices Expected Continued strength in domestic and export demand is expected to keep broiler prices above last year in the first quarter of 1997. Slower production increases for broilers and turkeys, and lower production for total red meat during the first quarter will also contribute to stronger broiler prices. Production increases are expected to accelerate later in the year as broiler producers increase the size of the hatchery supply flock. Percentage increases in chicks placed have been growing since October when placements were slightly below a year ago. Chicks placed during December were about 1 percent above a year ago, indicating slow growth in production for February. Turkey Production Growth Slowing Turkey production is expected to grow much more slowly in 1997 than in 1996. High feed costs and a 6 to 7 percent increase in production kept pressure on net returns throughout 1996 and should moderate expansion plans for 1997. Turkey prices are expected to strengthen throughout the year and be above a year ago during the last half of 1997. Slower production growth and lower supplies of red meat, especially pork, should contribute to the price strength. Egg Production Increasing Egg production is expected to rise sharply in 1997. Record wholesale prices in 1996 kept egg production profitable and have encouraged increases in flock size. Production increases are expected to put some pressure on prices during 1997. The annual average wholesale price is expected to be about 5 cents per dozen below the 1996 record. Chicken Exports Continue To Grow Exports of broilers and broiler products totaled 419 million pounds in October, 7 percent higher than a year earlier. Over the first 10 months of 1996, exports were 3.7 billion pounds, 17 percent above the same period a year earlier. Exports in October were boosted by strong exports to Russia (193 million pounds) and Latvia (18 million). These shipments helped offset lower exports to Canada and Hong Kong. Broiler exports are likely to be lower in November and December, especially to Russia, as signaled by falling prices for leg quarters. Other chicken products exports are estimated to total 250 million pounds, 150 percent higher than in 1995 due to continued strong shipments of other chicken products to Hong Kong and Japan. Through October, exports to Hong Kong and Japan were well over 200 percent above a year earlier. The projection for 1997 is 267 million pounds, a modest increase over 1996. New Trade Categories for 1997 Starting with the January 1997 data, exports of frozen cut-up broilers and turkeys will each be broken out in six separate categories. This will allow, for example, the tracking of shipments of frozen broiler leg quarters, broiler feet, or turkey breasts. Previously, all frozen cut-up products were lumped into one category. Principal Contributors (202) 219-1285 Leland Southard (Coordinator), Milton Madison (Poultry), Dave Harvey (Poultry Trade), Ron Gustafson (Cattle), Mildred Haley (Pork Trade), Jim Miller(Dairy),LaVerne Williams (Statistics). Hogs on farms, farrowings, and pig crops, U.S. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Inventory 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 Head March 1 inventory 56,545 57,350 58,465 56,430 Breeding 7,040 7,210 6,998 6,765 Market 49,505 50,140 51,467 49,575 Under 60 lb 18,480 18,780 19,251 18,790 60-119 lb 12,107 12,190 12,498 11,980 120-179 lb 10,372 10,430 10,594 10,095 180 + lb 8,546 8,740 9,124 8,710 June 1 inventory 58,395 60,715 59,560 57,200 Breeding 7,320 7,565 7,180 6,870 Market 51,075 53,150 52,380 50,330 Under 60 lb 20,770 22,125 21,270 20,265 60-119 lb 12,865 13,145 13,060 12,700 120-179 lb 9,590 9,825 9,865 9,800 180 + lb 7,850 8,055 8,185 7,565 Sept. 1 inventory 59,030 62,320 60,540 58,200 Breeding 7,130 7,415 6,898 6,770 Market 51,900 54,905 53,642 51,430 Under 60 lb 19,675 20,790 20,235 19,330 60-119 lb 13,175 13,960 13,532 12,800 120-179 lb 10,545 11,170 10,985 10,600 180 + lb 8,505 8,985 8,890 8,700 Dec. 1 inventory 58,202 57,904 59,990 58,264 56,171 Breeding 7,109 7,165 7,060 6,839 6,663 Market 51,093 50,739 52,930 51,425 49,507 Under 60 lb 19,122 19,173 19,556 18,881 18,411 60-119 lb 12,846 12,659 13,087 12,808 12,239 120-179 lb 10,420 10,212 10,941 10,702 10,313 180 + lb 8,705 8,695 9,346 9,034 8,544 Sows farrowing Dec.-Feb. 1/ 2,808 2,885 2,886 2,745 2,765 March-May 3,220 3,390 3,170 2,964 Dec.-May 1/ 6,028 6,275 6,056 5,709 June-August 2,972 3,107 2,976 2,761 Sept.-Nov. 2,982 2,997 2,815 2,717 June-Nov. 5,954 6,104 5,791 5,478 Pig crop Dec.-Feb. 1/ 22,871 23,368 23,851 23,054 March-May 26,135 27,984 26,373 25,092 Dec.-May 1/ 49,006 51,352 50,224 48,146 June-August 24,041 25,547 24,813 23,667 Sept.-Nov. 24,003 24,517 23,479 23,159 June-Nov. 48,044 50,064 48,292 46,826 Pigs per litter Dec.-Feb. 1/ 8.15 8.10 8.27 8.40 March-May 8.12 8.26 8.32 8.47 Dec.-May 1/ 8.13 8.18 8.29 8.43 June-August 8.09 8.22 8.34 8.57 Sept.-Nov. 8.05 8.18 8.34 8.52 June-Nov. 8.07 8.20 8.34 8.55 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ December preceding year. 2/ Intentions Hog breeding herd changes, United States ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Inventory change: December 1 breeding 1/ 7,109 7,165 7,060 6,839 6,663 December-February Sow slaughter 939 919 1,010 904 Stag/boar slaughter 213 205 233 179 Gilts/boars added 1,083 1,169 1,181 1009 % of inventory 15.2% 16.3% 16.7% 14.8% March 1 breeding 7,040 7,210 6,998 6765 March-May Sow slaughter 896 914 907 955 Stag/boar slaughter 235 243 235 188 Gilts/boars added 1,411 1,512 1,324 1248 % of inventory 20.0% 21.0% 18.9% 18.4% June 1 breeding 7,320 7,565 7,180 6870 June-August Sow slaughter 1,002 1,030 1,015 875 Stag/boar slaughter 225 242 232 168 Gilts/boars added 1,037 1,122 965 943 % of inventory 14.2% 14.8% 13.4% 13.7% September 1 breeding 7,130 7,415 6,898 6770 September-November Sow slaughter 976 1,093 924 802 Stag/boar slaughter 217 225 204 158 Gilts/boars added 1,228 963 1,069 853 % of inventory 17.2% 13.0% 15.5% 12.6% Sows entering breeding December-February 1/ Sows farrowing 2,808 2,885 2,886 2,745 2,765 2/ Sow slaughter 939 919 1,010 904 % of inventory 33.4% 31.9% 35.0% 32.9% Sows added 1,351 1,424 1,294 1123 % of inventory 42.0% 42.0% 40.8% 37.9% March-May Sows farrowing 3,220 3,390 3,170 2964 Sow slaughter 896 914 907 955 % of inventory 27.8% 27.0% 28.6% 32.2% Sows added 648 631 713 752 % of inventory 21.8% 20.3% 24.0% 27.2% June-August Sows farrowing 2,972 3,107 2,976 2761 Sow slaughter 1,002 1,030 1,015 875 % of inventory 33.7% 33.2% 34.1% 31.7% Sows added 1,012 920 854 831 % of inventory 33.9% 30.7% 30.3% 30.6% September-November Sows farrowing 2,982 2,997 2,815 2717 Sow slaughter 976 1,093 924 802 % of inventory 32.7% 36.5% 32.8% 29.5% Sows added 879 982 854 850 % of inventory 30.5% 34.0% 31.1% 30.7% ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ December preceding year 2/ Estimate Farrow-to-finish hog production costs and returns, 1,600 head annual sales, North Central Region 1/ Item Jan-96 Feb-96 Mar-96 Apr-96 May-96 Jun-96 Cash receipts: 2/ 40.51 44.45 45.96 47.54 54.21 53.52 Market hogs (94.25 lb) 2.04 2.15 2.28 2.38 2.74 2.94 Cull sows (5.75 lb) 42.55 46.60 48.24 49.92 56.95 56.46 Total Cash expenses: Feed-- 14.91 15.36 15.96 17.59 17.19 18.26 Corn (345.6 lb) 7.49 7.62 7.88 8.47 8.87 8.72 Soybean meal (70.6 lb) 3.10 3.11 3.11 3.11 3.13 3.15 Mixing concentrates (14.3 lb) 25.50 26.09 26.95 29.17 29.19 30.13 Total feed Other-- Veterinary and medicine 3/ 1.28 1.29 1.29 1.29 1.30 1.30 Fuel, lube, and electricity 1.35 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.41 1.45 Mach. and building repairs 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.40 1.45 Hired labor 4/ 2.68 2.68 2.68 2.75 2.78 2.75 Miscellaneous 2.31 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.36 2.36 Total variable expenses 34.52 35.19 36.05 38.35 38.44 39.44 General farm overhead 1.43 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.46 1.46 Taxes and insurance 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.91 0.91 Interest 2.35 2.37 2.37 2.37 2.33 2.33 Total fixed expenses 4.66 4.71 4.71 4.71 4.70 4.70 Total cash expenses 5/ 39.18 39.90 40.76 43.06 43.14 44.14 Receipts less cash expenses 3.37 6.70 7.48 6.86 13.81 12.32 Capital replacement 10.74 10.77 10.77 10.77 10.73 10.73 Receipts less cash expenses 49.92 50.67 51.53 53.83 53.87 54.87 and replacement -7.37 -4.07 -3.29 -3.91 3.08 1.59 1/The feed rations and expense items do not not necessarily coincide with the experience of individual hog operations. 2/ Based on 94.25 lb of barrows and gilts liveweight and 5.75 lb of sows per cwt sold. 3/ Includes costs of feed medication. 4/ Based on .204 hours per cwt of liveweight hog marketed. 5/ Does not include a charge for family or operator labor Item Jul-96 Aug-96 Sep-96 Oct-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 Cash receipts: 2/ 55.91 56.71 51.80 52.80 51.26 51.37 Market hogs (94.25 lb) 3.05 3.22 3.08 3.19 3.31 3.15 Cull sows (5.75 lb) 58.96 59.93 54.88 55.99 54.57 54.52 Total Cash expenses: Feed-- 19.04 19.18 20.97 22.92 23.22 24.42 Corn (345.6 lb) 8.94 9.81 9.83 10.02 10.55 10.78 Soybean meal (70.6 lb) 3.16 3.18 3.18 3.18 3.16 3.17 Mixing concentrates (14.3 lb) 31.14 32.17 33.98 36.12 36.93 38.37 Total feed Other-- Veterinary and medicine 3/ 1.31 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.31 1.31 Fuel, lube, and electricity 1.49 1.56 1.56 1.56 1.47 1.41 Mach. and building repairs 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.46 1.46 1.48 Hired labor 4/ 2.77 2.77 2.77 2.78 2.79 2.71 Miscellaneous 2.33 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.38 2.38 Total variable expenses 40.50 41.61 43.42 45.58 46.34 47.65 General farm overhead 1.44 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.47 1.47 Taxes and insurance 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.82 0.82 Interest 2.35 2.36 2.36 2.36 2.35 2.35 Total fixed expenses 4.70 4.73 4.73 4.73 4.64 4.64 Total cash expenses 5/ 45.20 46.34 48.15 50.31 50.98 52.29 Receipts less cash expenses 13.76 13.59 6.73 5.68 3.59 2.23 Capital replacement 10.73 10.73 10.73 10.73 10.83 10.83 Receipts less cash expenses 55.93 57.07 58.88 61.04 61.81 63.12 and replacement 3.03 2.86 -4.00 -5.05 -7.24 -8.60 1/The feed rations and expense items do not not necessarily coincide with the experience of individual hog operations. 2/ Based on 94.25 lb of barrows and gilts liveweight and 5.75 lb of sows per cwt sold. 3/ Includes costs of feed medication. 4/ Based on .204 hours per cwt of liveweight hog marketed. 5/ Does not include a charge for family or operator labor Pork: Retail, wholesale, and farm values, spreads, and farmers' share Gross Year Retail Wholesale farm By-product Net farm price 1/ value 2/ value 3/ allowance value 5/ --------------------------- Cents per pound 1992 198.0 98.9 72.0 4.2 67.8 1993 197.6 102.9 77.3 4.8 72.5 1994 198.1 98.9 67.4 4.5 62.9 1995 195.4 99.7 72.2 4.9 67.3 I 190.6 91.4 63.8 4.6 59.2 II 190.5 97.9 72.4 4.8 67.6 III 199.2 106.9 81.2 5.5 75.7 IV 201.4 102.4 71.3 4.8 66.5 1996 220.3 116.4 90.1 6.1 84.0 Jan. 208.2 105.7 79.0 4.9 74.1 Feb. 209.7 108.3 82.9 5.2 77.7 Mar. 208.6 111.1 85.6 5.3 80.3 I 208.8 108.4 82.5 5.1 77.4 Apr. 213.6 120.8 98.0 6.3 91.7 May 222.5 116.9 95.4 6.5 88.9 June 225.7 122.8 100.8 6.9 93.9 II 220.6 120.2 98.1 6.6 91.5 July 231.4 126.6 101.5 7.1 94.4 Aug. 193.5 91.4 64.3 4.6 59.7 Sept. 234.2 120.8 92.6 6.7 85.9 III 220.2 111.3 83.6 6.0 77.6 Oct. 233.0 121.7 93.8 6.5 87.3 Nov. 231.6 123.9 93.2 6.4 86.8 Dec. 231.2 126.2 93.5 6.4 87.1 IV 231.9 123.9 93.5 6.4 87.1 Farm retail spread Year Wholesale Farm- Farmers' Total retail Wholesale share 6/ --------------------------- Percent 1992 130.2 99.1 31.1 34 1993 125.1 94.7 30.4 37 1994 135.2 99.2 36.0 32 1995 128.1 95.7 32.4 34 I 131.4 99.2 32.2 31 II 122.9 92.6 30.3 35 III 123.5 92.3 31.2 38 IV 134.9 99.0 35.9 33 1996 136.3 103.9 32.4 38 Jan. 134.1 102.5 31.6 36 Feb. 132.0 101.4 30.6 37 Mar. 128.3 97.5 30.8 38 I 131.4 100.4 31.0 37 Apr. 121.9 92.8 29.1 43 May 133.6 105.6 28.0 40 June 131.8 102.9 28.9 42 II 129.1 100.4 28.7 41 July 137.0 104.8 32.2 41 Aug. 133.8 102.1 31.7 31 Sept. 148.3 113.4 34.9 37 III 142.6 108.9 33.7 35 Oct. 145.7 111.3 34.4 37 Nov. 144.8 107.7 37.1 37 Dec. 144.1 105.0 39.1 38 IV 144.9 108.0 36.9 38 1/ Estimated weighted-average of BLS prices of retail cuts from pork c 2/ Value of wholesale quantity equivalent to 1 lb of retail cuts. A wholesale-carcass equivalent of 1.06 is used. 3/ Market values to producer for 1.7 lb of live animal equivalent to 1 lb of retail cuts. 4/ Portion of gross farm value attributable to edible and inedible by- 5/ Gross farm value minus by-product allowance. 6/ Percent net farm value is of retail price. Commercial hog slaughter, production, and prices 1/ Slt'r hog Barrows Boars & Dress- Comm'l Iowa/ Year & gilts Sows Stags Total wt. prod. S. Minn --------- 1,000 hd. --------- lb. 1,000 lb $/cwt 1992 I 22635 959 208 23802 182 4321 39.55 II 20988 991 223 22202 183 4033 45.70 III 22437 1082 227 23746 182 4263 44.39 IV 23904 1019 215 25138 185 4567 42.48 Year 89964 4051 873 94888 183 17184 43.03 1993 I 21935 903 219 23057 182 4204 44.83 II 21516 910 235 22661 183 4151 47.59 III 21535 1017 225 22777 182 4140 48.05 IV 23401 966 207 24574 185 4535 43.93 Year 88387 3796 886 93069 183 17030 46.10 1994 I 21600 916 226 22742 184 4181 45.70 II 21806 920 240 22966 185 4239 42.90 III 22407 1035 232 23674 183 4326 40.50 IV 24945 1140 230 26315 187 4912 34.97 Year 90758 4011 928 95697 185 17658 41.02 1995 I 23038 946 241 24225 185 4488 38.56 II 22498 922 223 23643 186 4393 38.91 III 22058 981 222 23261 182 4241 48.75 IV 24089 911 197 25197 186 4689 43.19 Year 91683 3760 883 96326 185 17811 42.35 1996 I 22561 912 178 23651 186 4388 46.23 II 21085 933 181 22199 185 4103 54.82 III 21684 861 169 22714 182 4141 57.75 IV 2/ 23875 187 4465 55.00 Year 2/ 92439 185 17097 53.45 1997 I 3/ 22650 185 4200 52-56 II 3/ 22000 186 4100 54-58 III 3/ 23700 184 4350 54-58 IV 3/ 23700 186 4400 54-58 Year 3/ 92050 185 17050 53-59 Selected price and slaughter statistics for meat animals and meat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item Jul-96 Aug-96 Sep-96 Oct-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 5/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hog prices: Barrows and gilts 230-250 lb Iowa/S. Minn. No. 1-3 59.13 59.59 54.53 55.1 54.33 55.08 Sioux City 59.47 60.49 54.6 55.41 54.42 55.00 6 markets 1/ 59.20 59.81 54.87 55.03 54.75 54.85 Sows: 6 markets 1/ 48.25 50.84 48.95 50.76 54.36 49.60 Feeder pigs: No. 1 & 2, So. Mo., 40-50 lb (per hd.) NA Slaughter Steers: Choice, 1100-1300 lb Nebraska direct 63.79 66.84 68.89 71.09 72.61 67.2 Farm prices: Hogs 58.7 59.7 54.7 55.6 54.4 54.4 Beef cattle 58.9 60.3 63.7 63.1 63.2 60.7 Meat prices: Wholesale Central U.S. markets Pork cut-out, #2 2/ 79.08 79.97 74.54 75.03 75.86 74.4 Pork loins 14-18 lb 126.16 118.18 112.28 115.4 115.39 120.4 Pork bellies 12-14 lb 89.49 88.4 68.12 63.07 65.27 70 Hams, skinned 17-20 lb 77.52 82.63 85.29 86.86 91.63 72.5 20-26 lb 77.27 81.03 82.65 79 74.83 65.8 Boxed beef cut-out Choice, 1-3 700-850 lb 101.01 103.34 104.47 107.36 115.57 108 Retail prices Pork 225.7 231.4 234.2 233 231.6 231.2 Bacon, sliced 254 268 281 272 266 264 Chops, center cut 348 350 351 347 342 344 Ham, rump or shank 195 199 198 202 198 196 Sirloin roast 254 259 264 263 263 262 Picnic, smoked 122 127 128 126 131 131 Sausage, fresh 201 205 206 207 216 215 Beef, Choice 277.6 281.1 280.7 281.9 285.9 287.3 Composite broiler 150.4 152.3 158 152.9 151.5 154.2 Price indexes: (BLS) All meats 139.6 141.8 143 143.6 144.6 144.4 Beef and veal 132.3 134.4 134.7 136 137.3 137.8 Pork 150.4 153.5 156.3 156 156 155.4 Poultry 152.7 154.5 155.8 157.1 157.3 157.8 Commercial: 4/ Slaughter Hogs 7,338 7,675 7,701 8,591 7,621 7,625 Barrows and gilts 6,977 7,327 7,380 8,251 7,322 7,321 Sows 304 290 267 285 250 257 Stags and boars 57 58 54 55 49 47 Cattle 3,148 3,214 2,762 3,151 2,872 2,877 Production Pork 1,339 1,394 1,408 1,591 1,429 1,435 Beef 2,194 2,262 1,935 2,179 1,955 1,943 Veal 32 32 31 34 30 30 Lamb and mutton 20 20 20 23 21 22 Cold storage stocks: 5/ Total pork 351.829 322.66 320.015 340.268 330.321 316.679 Hams 79.834 78.914 83.437 94.167 80.413 48.83 Pork belly 56.767 28.533 18.996 12.702 16.206 30.943 Ribs 36.963 35.322 29.014 34.08 40.643 55.18 Trim & other 104.812 108.939 117.719 120.721 110.017 108.054 Federal inspected: Hog weights live wt 252 251 251 256 259 258 dressed wt 184 183 184 186 189 188 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Omaha, Sioux City, Sioux Falls, So. St. Joseph, and So. St. Paul. 2/ 175 lb. carcass 3/ Classes esimated. 4/ End of month. 5/ Preliminary U.S. HOG & PORK IMPORTS & EXPORTS 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 Carcass wt., thousand lb. Pork Imports Canada 276,555 356,055 422,860 485,257 545,586 508,773 Denmark 203,726 340,969 428,229 368,484 345,292 326,509 Poland 91,067 87,029 108,685 121,851 125,342 128,619 Hungary 35,258 42,082 54,746 48,486 50,011 44,195 Netherlands 35,425 36,712 34,030 12,289 17,350 22,591 Other 64,849 91,072 79,200 85,221 111,546 106,545 Total 706,880 953,919 1,127,750 1,121,588 1,195,126 1,137,231 Pork Exports Japan 110,528 59,932 29,783 39,562 61,731 121,209 Canada 27,798 17,402 10,073 10,099 9,436 8,844 Mexico 32,970 34,043 32,123 2,262 7,098 34,897 Caribbean 17,629 14,345 14,381 14,297 12,334 10,800 Other 30,382 38,158 42,031 19,445 18,714 19,481 Total 219,306 163,880 128,391 85,665 109,312 195,231 Hog Imports head Canada 447,391 1,322,015 1,226,151 503,728 446,056 835,125 Under 110 lb Total 447,465 1,322,017 1,226,571 503,728 446,056 835,949 Hog Exports Total 23,326 14,332 18,278 12,993 7,409 91,292 Jul-95 Aug-95 Sep-95 Oct-95 Nov-95 Dec-95 Carcass wt., thousand lb. Pork Imports Canada 35,379 40,340 32,836 43,616 36,587 35,805 Denmark 9,978 9,392 10,830 12,723 13,653 12,258 Poland 678 491 910 1,224 1,666 740 Hungary 1,322 1,464 1,105 628 504 478 Netherlands 732 843 340 1,060 910 1,161 Other 2,269 2,307 2,378 2,676 2,188 2,340 Total 50,358 54,837 48,399 61,927 55,507 52,782 Pork Exports Japan 31,508 37,885 47,110 40,593 28,067 22,881 Canada 4,836 5,654 5,645 5,033 7,574 6,077 Mexico 4,327 4,741 3,612 5,276 5,106 6,360 Caribbean 806 534 986 866 1,223 1,281 Other 18,658 17,592 15,381 17,263 18,963 23,813 Total 60,135 66,406 72,734 69,031 60,933 60,411 Hog Imports head Canada 142,201 187,886 175,377 216,340 162,509 180,421 Under 110 60,270 74,836 57,276 59,418 50,879 42,253 Total 142,821 188,129 175,377 216,363 162,510 181,029 Hog Exports Total 1,745 685 1,932 636 2,635 3,217 U.S.HOG & PORK IMPORTS & EXPORTS 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Carcass wt., thousand lb. Pork Imports Canada 453,182 437,058 403,938 391,233 402,275 421,768 453,925 Denmark 198,391 273,244 245,956 168,908 233,772 244,545 144,516 Poland 112,789 66,614 21,640 13,192 13,834 11,581 11,984 Hungary 26,159 33,117 39,028 21,323 29,933 18,210 10,608 Netherlan 15,259 15,650 17,697 16,894 22,771 16,769 10,671 Other 89,870 72,198 46,505 33,955 37,613 30,896 32,258 Total 895,650 897,882 774,765 645,505 740,197 743,769 663,963 Pork Exports Japan 147,752 125,487 122,886 212,591 220,933 239,876 364,676 Canada 12,990 22,796 27,024 31,430 36,364 52,902 57,771 Mexico 60,161 38,282 81,495 107,747 92,986 150,252 59,855 Caribbean 14,996 14,958 13,332 9,523 8,669 8,351 11,120 Other 26,521 36,893 37,537 45,042 76,169 80,607 277,286 Total 262,419 238,416 282,275 406,332 435,121 531,988 770,707 Hog Imports Head Canada 1,073,164 886,277 1,054,236 669,769 837,832 914,755 1,747,160 Under 110 169,738 204,184 226,303 226,896 280,813 401,981 651,096 Total 1,073,646 890,252 1,057,685 674,469 840,050 921,274 1,750,138 Hog Exports Total 93,343 56,652 267,853 105,631 40,636 136,148 16,059 Jan-96 Feb-96 Mar-96 Apr-96 May-96 Jun-96 Jul-96 Carcass wt., thousand lb. Pork Imports Canada 34,028 30,734 35,711 33,147 35,922 39,274 35,956 Denmark 8,443 10,023 11,081 10,806 10,840 9,494 12,307 Poland 249 1,075 1,225 680 969 855 753 Hungary 305 358 958 809 1,222 917 1,060 Netherlands 831 741 881 902 1,080 598 997 Other 1,823 2,527 2,830 2,236 3,002 2,430 2,340 Total 45,678 45,458 52,686 48,580 53,035 53,569 53,413 Pork Exports Japan 27,478 36,008 49,957 84,601 70,151 41,766 29,588 Canada 7,378 8,513 8,660 9,064 8,415 6,954 8,296 Mexico 5,912 5,577 3,684 3,159 3,467 2,531 3,580 Caribbean 473 994 937 779 1,020 678 863 Other 23,951 26,734 15,222 31,044 31,424 17,848 14,490 Total 65,193 77,826 78,460 128,647 114,477 69,777 56,817 Hog Imports Head Canada 219,454 199,278 211,432 212,222 222,897 195,472 248,513 Under 110 50,791 69,291 70,750 65,664 64,941 46,765 72,341 Total 219,520 199,363 211,432 212,222 222,897 195,485 248,513 Hog Exports Total 13,770 10,629 4,794 5,086 2,430 1,160 2,698 Meat supply, carcass weight 1/ ------------------------------------------------------ Production ------------------Begin- Year Commer- Total ning Im- Total cial stocks ports supply ------------------------------------------------------ Million pounds Beef: 1993 22,942 23,049 360 2,401 25,810 1994 24,278 24,386 529 2,368 27,283 1995 III 6,625 6,641 471 539 7,651 IV 6,277 6,315 464 453 7,232 Year 25,115 25,222 548 2,104 27,874 1996 I 6,302 6,339 519 508 7,366 II 2/ 6,642 6,658 461 526 7,645 III 2/ 6,391 6,407 406 555 7,368 IV 2/ 6,100 6,138 414 500 7,052 Year 25,435 25,542 519 2,089 28,150 1997 I 2/ 6,300 6,337 450 525 7,312 II 2/ 6,500 6,516 450 525 7,491 III 2/ 6,500 6,516 425 500 7,441 IV 2/ 6,075 6,113 425 500 7,038 Year 25,375 25,482 450 2,050 27,982 Pork: 1993 17,030 17,088 385 740 18,213 1994 17,658 17,696 359 743 18,798 1995 III 4,241 4,250 498 154 4,902 IV 4,689 4,699 389 170 5,258 Year 17,097 17,135 438 620 18,193 1996 I 4,388 4,398 396 144 4,938 II 4,103 4,112 413 155 4,680 III 2/ 4,141 4,150 404 154 4,708 IV 2/ 4,465 4,475 401 167 5,043 Year 17,097 17,135 396 620 18,151 1997 I 2/ 4,200 4,210 410 154 4,774 II 2/ 4,100 4,109 420 154 4,683 III 2/ 4,350 4,359 410 142 4,911 IV 2/ 4,400 4,410 400 155 4,965 Year 17,050 17,088 410 605 18,103 Veal: 1993 267 285 5 290 1994 283 293 4 297 1995 III 76 78 8 86 IV 80 83 7 90 Year 367 378 7 385 1996 I 91 95 7 102 II 87 89 7 96 III 2/ 95 97 5 102 IV 2/ 94 97 6 103 Year 367 378 7 385 1997 I 2/ 85 89 6 95 II 2/ 75 77 6 83 III 2/ 75 77 6 83 IV 2/ 72 75 6 81 Year 307 318 6 324 Lamb: 1993 329 337 8 53 398 1994 304 308 8 49 365 1995 III 63 64 12 12 88 IV 69 70 7 18 95 Year 264 268 11 73 352 1996 I 74 75 8 19 102 II 64 65 12 18 95 III 2/ 60 61 14 18 93 IV 2/ 66 67 11 18 96 Year 264 268 8 73 349 1997 I 2/ 75 76 11 16 103 II 2/ 66 67 8 16 91 III 2/ 55 56 10 16 82 IV 2/ 58 59 9 16 84 Year 254 258 11 64 333 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Forecast Meat utilization, carcass and retail weight 1/ ------------------------------------------------------ Per capita Total Consumption Year Ex- Ending disap- Carcass Retail ports stocks pearance weight weight ------------------------------------------------------ Million pounds Pounds Beef: 1993 1,275 529 24,006 93.0 65.1 1994 1,611 548 25,124 96.4 67.0 1995 III 499 464 6,688 25.4 17.6 IV 502 519 6,211 23.5 16.4 Year 1,821 519 25,534 97.0 67.4 1996 I 452 461 6,453 24.4 16.9 II 2/ 544 406 6,695 25.2 17.5 III 2/ 436 414 6,518 24.5 17.0 IV 2/ 425 450 6,177 23.2 16.1 Year 1,857 450 25,843 97.3 67.5 1997 I 2/ 450 450 6,412 24.0 16.7 II 2/ 575 425 6,491 24.2 16.8 III 2/ 560 425 6,456 24.1 16.7 IV 2/ 600 450 5,988 22.3 15.5 Year 2,185 450 25,347 94.6 65.7 Pork: 1993 435 359 17,419 67.5 52.4 1994 531 438 17,829 68.4 53.1 1995 III 199 389 4,313 16.4 12.7 IV 190 396 4,672 17.7 13.7 Year 904 396 16,893 63.4 49.1 1996 I 221 413 4,304 16.3 12.6 II 313 404 3,963 14.9 11.6 III 2/ 180 401 4,127 15.5 12.0 IV 2/ 190 410 4,443 16.7 12.9 Year 904 410 16,837 63.4 49.1 1997 I 2/ 250 420 4,104 15.4 11.9 II 2/ 315 410 3,958 14.8 11.5 III 2/ 355 400 4,156 15.5 12.0 IV 2/ 280 380 4,305 16.0 12.4 Year 1,200 380 16,523 61.7 47.8 Veal: 1993 4 286 1.1 0.9 1994 7 290 1.2 0.8 1995 III 7 79 0.3 0.2 IV 7 83 0.3 0.3 Year 7 378 1.5 1.2 1996 I 7 95 0.4 0.3 II 5 91 0.3 0.3 III 2/ 6 96 0.4 0.3 IV 2/ 6 97 0.4 0.3 Year 6 379 1.5 1.2 1997 I 2/ 6 89 0.3 0.3 II 2/ 6 77 0.3 0.2 III 2/ 6 77 0.3 0.2 IV 2/ 6 75 0.3 0.2 Year 6 318 1.2 0.9 Lamb: 1993 8 8 381 1.5 1.3 1994 9 11 345 1.3 1.2 1995 III 2 7 79 0.3 0.3 IV 1 8 86 0.3 0.3 Year 6 8 338 1.2 1.2 1996 I 2 12 88 0.3 0.3 II 1 14 80 0.3 0.3 III 2/ 1 11 81 0.3 0.3 IV 2/ 2 11 83 0.3 0.3 Year 6 11 332 1.2 1.2 1997 I 2/ 2 8 93 0.3 0.3 II 2/ 2 10 79 0.3 0.3 III 2/ 2 9 71 0.3 0.2 IV 2/ 2 11 71 0.3 0.2 Year 8 11 314 1.2 1.0 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Forecast PRODUCTION INDICATORS Dec-95 Oct-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 Cattle: On feed - 7 States, 1,000+ Hd 8,685 7,486 8,534 8,973 Net placements 1,394 2,479 1,877 NA Marketings 1,412 1,431 1,438 Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 572,200 538,040 526,525 573,500 Chicks hatched (000)/2 691,193 651,791 631,292 695,000 Hatching egg layers/1 50,487 48,782 48,394 49,729 Pullets placed (000) 6,218 6,221 6,508 NA Hvy-type hen slaughter 4,155 6,386 3,856 4,300 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 31,769 32,332 31,668 34,424 Poults placed (000) 25,269 25,354 23,830 27,166 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.)/2 463 462 455 478 Table egg layers, (000)/1 245,301 247,487 248,791 250,696 Table eggs/100 layers/1 73.6 71.7 72.2 73.6 Chicks hatched (000) 30,797 33,176 31,495 34,000 Lt.-type hen slaughter 7,840 8,141 5,871 8,000 ESTIMATED RETURNS Jan-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 Jan-97 /* Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 61.70 68.74 66.97 62.84 Selling price 64.63 70.70 66.30 65.30 Net margin 2.93 1.96 -0.67 2.46 N. Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price /3 39.18 50.98 52.29 52.73 Selling price 43.10 54.33 54.85 52.85 Net margin 3.92 3.35 2.56 0.12 Broiler Wholesale cost 52.40 55.01 52.61 52.24 Wholesale price 59.00 64.37 63.50 63.00 Net margin 6.60 9.36 10.89 10.76 Turkey Wholesale cost 66.00 75.50 71.72 67.82 Wholesale price 64.11 71.13 66.38 60.00 Net margin -1.89 -4.37 -5.34 -7.82 Egg Wholesale cost 74.46 71.96 71.16 70.88 Wholesale price 91.76 103.32 106.38 87.00 Net margin 17.30 31.36 35.22 16.12 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost. /* estimate LIVESTOCK PRICES Jan-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 Jan-97 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 64.63 70.70 66.25 65.30 Nebraska Direct 63.90 72.61 66.90 65.60 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 36.44 29.07 27.50 27.60 Utility boning 31.94 25.17 25.74 25.70 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 61.81 68.00 69.79 68.30 600-650 lb. 59.75 64.44 66.04 68.50 750-800 lb. 60.13 67.19 67.08 68.20 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 53.91 57.25 58.67 62.00 700-750 lb. 55.78 61.16 61.21 63.95 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 42.25 54.75 55.08 53.00 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 43.10 54.33 54.85 52.85 Sows 6 Markets 32.26 54.36 49.60 47.75 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) 30.25 28.03 NA NA Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 74.44 80.00 88.65 93.00 Ewes, Good 40.50 42.08 46.42 51.00 Feeder lambs, Choice 87.69 92.33 106.83 106.00 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES Jan-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 Jan-97 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 3.41 2.63 2.62 2.60 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 5.40 4.73 4.65 4.50 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 232.00 251.48 250.64 248.00 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 87.80 100.00 102.00 87.80 Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 81.70 95.40 96.00 81.70 /* Estimates MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - Dec-95 Dec-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 Jan-97 /* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 25,115 25,412 1,955 1,943 2,140 Veal 308 366 30 30 34 Pork 17,811 17,077 1,429 1,425 1,490 Lamb 281 264 21 22 18 Total red meat 43,515 43,119 3,435 3,420 3,682 Broilers 25,021 26,342 1,983 2,150 2,325 Other chicken 495 486 31 35 40 Turkeys 5,129 5,455 468 400 435 Total poultry 30,644 32,283 2,482 2,585 2,800 Total meat & poultry 74,159 75,402 5,917 6,005 6,482 Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 35,639 36,578 2,872 2,877 3,162 Steers 18,274 17,819 1,299 1,283 1,464 Heifers 10,399 10,756 831 889 948 Beef Cows 3,355 4,163 410 378 411 Dairy Cows 2,926 3,110 273 275 285 Bulls and stags 686 730 59 52 54 Calves 1,430 1,764 145 150 172 Sheep 4,560 4,180 336 343 280 Hogs 96,326 92,401 7,621 7,625 7,925 Barrows & gilts 91,683 88,224 7,322 7,321 7,610 Sows 3,760 3,498 250 257 270 Broilers 7,371,429 7,538,910 564,701 600,000 650,000 Turkeys 281,032 292,523 25,880 21,000 22,000 Dec-95 Oct-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 Jan-97 /* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 714 699 687 684 685 Calves 208 208 209 208 208 Sheep 63 63 63 65 65 Hogs 188 186 189 188 188 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 381.4 312.2 295.5 290.5 NA Pork 347.1 340.3 330.3 316.7 NA Bellies 37.1 12.7 16.2 30.9 NA Hams 60.9 94.2 80.4 48.8 NA Total chicken 512.6 587.5 592.0 573.4 650.0 Turkey 270.1 721.0 659.2 347.6 300.0 Frozen eggs 12.5 14.9 12.7 10.3 11.0 /* Estimates RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Dec-95 Oct-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 284.1 281.9 285.9 287.3 Beef - All Fresh 260.0 250.2 250.7 254.7 Ground Beef 140.3 137.1 140.3 142.4 Rib roast 480.5 509.5 522.2 509.1 T-bone steak 591.8 565.0 574.3 587.4 Pork 202.2 233.0 231.6 231.2 Bacon 216.6 272.1 265.6 264.2 Chops 329.2 347.4 342.1 344.1 Picnic 117.4 126.4 131.4 131.3 Chicken - Composite 145.4 152.9 151.5 154.2 Whole, fresh 93.9 102.1 100.3 100.2 Breast - bone in 195.3 201.4 204.9 209.3 Leg quarter 120.1 128.5 123.5 125.6 Turkey; whole frozen 98.7 107.4 98.1 102.0 Eggs, Grade A, Large 116.0 112.9 113.9 130.8 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 153.5 158.3 158.6 158.6 All food 149.9 155.4 155.9 156.3 All meat 137.2 143.6 144.6 144.4 Beef & veal 134.6 136.0 137.3 137.8 Pork 139.6 156.0 156.0 155.4 Poultry 146.3 157.1 157.3 157.8 Dairy Products 135.0 149.3 149.3 148.6 Fluid milk & cream 134.5 149.0 150.5 149.9 Manufactured products 136.2 150.2 148.8 147.9 Price Spreads Cents/lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 24.3 20.5 28.9 26.6 Wholesale to retail 121.3 114.9 105.9 122.0 Farmers share (%) 49.0 52.0 53.0 48.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 34.7 34.4 37.1 39.1 Wholesale to retail 97.8 111.3 107.7 105.0 Farmers share (%) 34.0 37.0 37.0 38.0 Poultry and eggs Wholesale to retail Broilers 83.3 87.2 84.6 92.1 Retail to consumer Turkey 21.2 28.9 18.0 26.6 Eggs 22.9 24.7 12.4 25.4 U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Sep-96 Oct-96 Jan - Jan - Oct-95 Oct-96 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 49,761 49,465 578,156 453,552 New Zealand 19,753 21,043 521,763 450,954 Canada 50,342 57,183 365,764 487,708 Brazil 5,491 9,416 56,693 75,064 Argentina 18,834 12,884 147,778 132,342 Central America 10,230 9,413 121,406 90,315 Other 7,630 5,844 19,390 63,761 Total 162,041 165,248 1,810,949 1,753,698 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 67,354 79,001 828,898 885,548 Canada 21,757 23,137 256,089 245,650 Mexico 16,607 16,514 78,583 135,344 Korea, Rep. 16,052 15,689 211,467 167,840 Caribbean 654 1,337 9,785 9,963 Other 14,399 16,379 101,531 140,708 Total 136,823 152,058 1,486,353 1,585,053 Cattle Imports Mexico 3,594 12,349 1,368,877 246,459 Canada 123,436 122,741 973,471 1,352,930 Over 700 lbs. 115,526 111,234 917,906 1,235,241 500-700 lbs. 2,878 5,329 7,749 65,159 Total 127,034 135,090 2,342,403 1,599,430 Cattle Exports Mexico 11,610 14,264 12,030 90,387 Canada 2,264 3,846 56,340 30,116 Total 14,421 18,406 78,088 137,865 Lamb Imports Australia 1,718 2,389 15,610 21,448 New Zealand 1,884 1,676 18,761 20,805 Total 3,611 4,067 34,841 42,560 Mutton Imports 1,246 1,352 16,932 17,800 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Customs Service YTD imports under WTO 12/31/95 12/31/96 % Chg Canada 370,005 501,973 3566.7% TRQ Countries 995,515 886,362 -1096.4% Australia 478,233 403,180 -1569.4% New Zealand 414,919 359,215 -1342.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Sep-96 Oct-96 Jan - Jan - Oct-95 Oct-96 Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lb. Canada 34,161 43,387 381,533 359,682 Denmark 10,621 8,729 118,605 102,925 Poland 971 930 9,578 8,493 Hungary 133 649 9,627 7,286 Netherlands 657 457 8,600 7,450 Other 2,218 3,697 27,730 25,581 Total 48,761 57,849 555,674 511,418 Pork Exports Japan 30,496 40,588 313,728 442,322 Canada 7,369 6,925 44,121 78,448 Mexico 4,856 4,688 48,389 40,247 Caribbean 791 1,515 8,615 8,859 Other 18,355 24,513 234,510 223,021 Total 61,866 78,229 649,364 792,896 Hog Imports Head Canada 244,463 280,915 1,404,230 2,305,406 Under 110 lb 66,375 71,096 557,964 655,981 Total 244,463 280,985 1,406,599 2,305,640 Hog Exports Total 1,076 1,212 10,207 44,663 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 23,651 27,005 212,887 213,922 Mexico 19,414 20,987 169,726 179,331 Hong Kong 73,941 74,286 816,002 814,739 Singapore 4,604 4,943 40,894 43,447 Canada 6,195 5,703 63,914 60,783 Former USSR 137,486 192,978 1,150,058 1,514,706 Total 341,158 418,849 3,139,024 3,671,976 Turkey Exports Mexico 13,497 18,821 105,380 125,165 S. Korea 1,213 1,437 31,353 19,080 Hong Kong 3,406 3,260 16,970 20,968 Total 32,248 42,514 274,578 355,290 Shell thousand dz. Egg Exports 9,343 11,167 86,939 95,402 MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS Dec-95 Oct-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 Milk production Production - 21 States, Mil. lb 11,088 10,977 10,634 NA Milk cow number - 21 States, Thou 8,034 7,953 7,939 NA Milk per cow - 21 States, Lb 1,380 1,380 1,339 NA Production - U.S., Mil. lb 12,844 12,715 12,318 NA Milk prices: Dol./cwt All milk 13.90 16.10 15.00 14.20 Milk for fluid use 14.00 16.20 15.10 14.30 Manuf. grade milk 12.90 14.70 12.50 11.90 Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 12.91 14.13 11.61 11.34 Wholesale prices: cents/lb Grade A butter 74.4 128.6 74.1 71.8 Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 144.6 162.3 133.9 126.0 Barrels 135.4 148.2 121.5 115.6 Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 117.6 131.6 126.6 120.5 International prices: $/metric ton Butter 2,572 1,550 1,513 1,533 Nonfat dry milk 2,250 1,918 1,930 1,937 Beginning stocks: Mil. lb Commercial butter 11.3 20.9 20.3 16.5 Commercial American cheese 297.6 363.7 370.1 359.9 Other cheese 95.7 122.0 115.1 110.1 Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 50.3 50.2 47.2 48.1 All commercial (mf. basis) 3,859 4,847 4,806 4,571 All commercial (ss. basis) 4,631 5,520 5,444 5,281 All Government (mf. basis) 105 17 10 9 All Government (ss. basis) 189 10 9 9 USDA net removals: Mil. lb Butter 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cheese 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 Nonfat dry milk 7.1 3.2 3.5 1.9 All products (mf basis 2/) 7.4 5.8 5.5 2.7 All products (ss basis 2/) 89.1 42.9 45.6 24.1 Nov-95 Sep-96 Oct-96 Nov-96 Dairy product output: Mil. lb Butter 90.5 81.0 95.5 94.3 American cheese 252.8 260.2 265.3 260.7 Other-than-American cheese 332.0 324.9 342.9 326.8 Frozen products 1/, Mil. gal. 79.2 98.7 90.9 73.4 All products (mf basis 2/) 7153.1 7469.4 7676.0 7217.0 Nonfat dry milk 73.1 56.2 65.8 73.8 Commercial disappearance: Mil. l Butter 97.5 86.8 96.2 NA American cheese 268.1 268.4 262.4 NA Other-than-American cheese 377.9 354.6 382.4 NA Nonfat dry milk 88.5 71.3 66.1 NA All products (mf. basis) 12899.0 12639.0 12950.0 NA Imports (mf basis 2/) 316.6 298.0 321.4 NA Annual Forecasts 1994 1995 1996 1997 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 6,605 6,743 6,900 7,058 CPI-U, Annual % Change 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.0 Unemployment rate, % 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.4 3-Month T Bill,% 5.1 5.5 5.0 5.2 10-Year Bond,% 6.2 6.6 6.5 6.4 Production, million lb. Beef 24,278 25,115 25,435 25,375 Pork 17,658 17,811 17,097 17,050 Broilers 23,847 25,021 26,358 28,000 Turkeys 4,992 5,129 5,463 5,575 Total Red Meat & Poultry 71,796 74,070 75,367 76,945 Eggs, mil doz. 5,266 5,244 5,396 5,575 Milk 153,626 155,643 154,500 155,800 Commercial use (mf basis) 150,196 155,013 155,300 156,900 Net removals (mf basis) 4,812 2,148 88 600 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 67.0 67.4 67.5 65.7 Pork 53.1 52.4 49.1 47.8 Broilers 69.4 68.8 70.7 73.5 Turkeys 17.8 17.9 18.6 18.7 Total Red Meat & Poultry 211.0 210.3 209.2 208.6 Eggs, number 238.6 234.5 236.7 242.4 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 68.84 66.24 65.1 65-69 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt. 77.72 68.03 61.1 67-72 Brk Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 42.51 35.57 30.3 36-38 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cwt 40.03 42.35 53.4 54-57 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 55.70 56.38 61.3 57-61 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 65.65 66.35 66.5 66-71 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 67.25 72.85 88.2 81-86 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 13.03 12.74 14.75 13.3-14.1 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 12.01 11.83 13.39 12.4-13.2 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 1,611 1,821 1,857 2,185 Beef & veal imports 2,368 2,104 2,089 2,050 Pork exports 531 770 904 1,200 Pork imports 743 664 620 605 Broiler exports 2,875 3,895 4,523 5,075 Turkey exports 281 348 443 510 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 Quarterly 1994/95 Forecasts QI'95 QII'95 QIII'95 QIV'95 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,701 6,714 6,776 6,781 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.1 3.4 2.0 2.4 Unemployment rate, % 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 7.5 6.6 6.3 5.9 Production, million lb. Beef 5,888 6,325 6,625 6,277 Pork 4,488 4,393 4,241 4,689 Broilers 6,147 6,356 6,182 6,336 Turkeys 1,196 1,297 1,289 1,347 Total Meat 17,993 18,616 18,556 18,905 Eggs, mil doz. 1,314 1,297 1,286 1,347 Milk (mf basis) 38,941 40,520 38,325 37,857 Commercial use 37,643 39,306 39,336 38,728 Net removals 1,046 749 242 111 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.3 17.1 17.6 16.4 Pork 13.1 12.9 12.7 13.7 Broilers 17.2 17.9 17.0 16.7 Turkeys 3.6 3.9 4.2 6.2 Total Meat 51.3 52.8 52.4 53.8 Eggs, number 59.2 58.0 57.8 59.5 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 71.51 64.70 62.65 66.10 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 72.62 65.77 66.17 67.55 Brk Cows,S. Falls 39.58 37.18 34.93 30.61 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 38.56 38.91 48.75 43.19 Broiler,12 City 51.70 53.50 60.70 59.60 Turkeys, Eastern 59.80 61.10 68.70 75.80 Eggs, New York 65.20 63.60 75.20 87.40 Milk, all at plant 12.57 12.23 12.40 13.77 Milk, M-W 11.68 11.23 11.62 12.80 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 368 452 499 502 Beef/veal imports 572 540 539 453 Pork exports 187 194 199 190 Pork imports 173 167 154 170 Broiler exports 873 856 1,019 1,147 Turkey exports 59 83 90 116 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 QI'96 QII'96 QIII'96 QIV'96 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,814 6,885 6,930 6,966 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.8 3.8 2.3 3.0 Unemployment rate, % 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.2 3-Month T Bill,% 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 10-Year Bond,% 5.9 6.7 6.8 6.4 Production, million lb. Beef 6,302 6,642 6,391 6,100 Pork 4,388 4,103 4,141 4,465 Broilers 6,609 6,607 6,592 6,550 Turkeys 1,270 1,382 1,411 1,400 Total Meat 18,848 18,973 18,767 18,779 Eggs, mil doz. 1,334 1,323 1,354 1,385 Milk (mf basis) 39,111 39,706 37,778 37,900 Commercial use 37,863 39,938 38,912 38,600 Net removals 20 29 19 20 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.9 17.5 17.0 16.1 Pork 12.6 11.6 12.0 12.9 Broilers 17.6 18.1 18.0 17.0 Turkeys 3.7 4.0 4.6 6.3 Total Meat 51.8 52.1 52.3 53.0 Eggs, number 59.0 58.2 59.3 60.2 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 63.06 60.26 67.13 70.00 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 58.11 56.87 63.20 66.15 Brk Cows,S. Falls 32.52 30.37 31.74 26.65 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 46.23 54.82 57.75 55.00 Broiler,12 City 56.20 61.10 64.20 63.50 Turkeys, Eastern 64.80 65.40 64.90 70.90 Eggs, New York 89.60 80.50 85.90 96.70 Milk, all at plant 13.83 14.27 15.70 15.10 Milk, M-W 12.67 13.59 15.20 12.36 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 452 544 436 425 Beef/veal imports 508 526 555 500 Pork exports 221 313 180 190 Pork imports 144 155 154 167 Broiler exports 1,075 1,057 1,121 1,270 Turkey exports 96 93 124 130 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 QI'97 QII'97 QIII'97 QIV'97 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 7,008 7,044 7,079 7,119 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 Unemployment rate, % 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 3-Month T Bill,% 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 10-Year Bond,% 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.3 Production, million lb. Beef 6,300 6,500 6,500 6,075 Pork 4,200 4,100 4,350 4,400 Broilers 6,900 7,050 7,050 7,000 Turkeys 1,300 1,400 1,450 1,425 Total Meat 18,966 19,281 19,564 19,134 Eggs, mil doz. 1,375 1,375 1,400 1,425 Milk (mf basis) 38,700 40,400 38,400 38,300 Commercial use 38,200 39,900 39,300 39,500 Net removals 200 200 200 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.7 16.8 16.7 15.5 Pork 11.9 11.5 12.0 12.4 Broilers 18.5 18.7 18.5 17.8 Turkeys 4.0 4.0 4.5 6.2 Total Meat 51.9 51.8 52.4 52.5 Eggs, number 60.0 59.7 61.1 61.6 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 64-66 63-67 64-70 68-74 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 64-66 66-70 67-73 71-77 Brk Cows,S. Falls 29-31 36-38 38-42 39-43 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 53-55 54-58 54-58 54-58 Broiler,12 City 57-59 57-61 58-62 56-60 Turkeys, Eastern 61-63 63-67 66-72 74-80 Eggs, New York 83-87 79-85 79-85 82-88 Milk, all at plant 12.8-13.3 13.0-13.7 13.1-14.1 14.2-15.2 Milk, M-W 12.1-12.5 12.0-12.7 12.3-13.3 13.2-14.2 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 450 575 560 600 Beef/veal imports 525 525 500 500 Pork exports 250 315 355 280 Pork imports 154 154 142 155 Broiler exports 1,150 1,225 1,275 1,425 Turkey exports 117 123 129 141 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 WHOLESALE PRICES Jan-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 Jan-97 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 101.71 117.53 108.03 102.65 Choice 1-3 700-850# 99.40 115.57 106.55 101.75 Select 1-3 700-850# 95.77 97.15 94.80 96.01 Cutter Cow 61.72 53.90 52.55 56.40 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 89.23 78.38 81.80 83.70 Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 90.42 85.44 90.00 92.00 Hide & offal value 8.17 9.34 9.57 9.66 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 163.26 161.85 156.50 153.20 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 60.05 75.86 74.40 72.00 Loins, 14-18 lb. 110.00 115.39 120.40 111.00 Bellies, 12-14 lb. 52.33 65.27 70.00 73.00 Hams, 20-26 lb. 52.18 74.83 68.50 68.50 Trimmings, 72% fresh 40.86 64.49 62.25 59.00 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. down, Choice 165.65 165.25 169.50 175.00 55-65 lb., Choice 157.25 165.25 169.50 175.00 Broilers 12 City Avg. 59.00 64.37 63.50 63.00 Georgia dock 57.62 64.83 64.29 63.00 Northeast Breast, boneless 157.29 169.92 155.90 170.00 Breast, Ribs on 77.44 84.95 75.64 84.00 Legs, whole 59.08 60.17 57.33 50.00 Leg quarters 43.26 45.60 37.27 30.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 64.33 70.63 63.36 59.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 64.60 73.58 70.05 62.00 Drumsticks 26.95 34.78 35.37 35.00 Wings, full cut 31.45 43.22 45.86 45.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 91.76 103.32 106.38 87.00 New York 91.26 102.50 100.90 84.00 /* Estimate END_OF_FILE