LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY March 20, 1997 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. LDP-M-39. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #LDP-M, $28/year. A consolidated subscription to all of the livestock, dairy, and poultry reports (34 issues/year) is also available as stock #LDP-A, $66/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ The tenuous balance in late winter dairy markets is expected to continue into summer. Milk production is projected to run above last year's weak levels but cannot regain solid footing until adequate supplies of good forage return. Meanwhile, dairy demand is expected to stay strong. A substantial seasonal rise in second-half dairy prices is projected, leaving 1997 averages down considerably from 1996 but still high relative to most other years. Milk Output Struggling To Grow Winter milk production was threatened from a number of directions: poor forage quality, record alfalfa hay prices, storms, and still-high concentrate prices. These factors made it difficult to sustain momentum from the second-half 1996 recovery. Even so, two straight years of relatively high milk prices are expected to be sufficient to produce a fractional increase in 1997 milk production. Recent revisions to 1996 milk production data did not alter the picture significantly. Milk per cow collapsed in late spring-early summer because of severe problems with forage quality and some direct weather stress. Recovery was gradual because of continued quality defects in later forage harvests. Cow numbers declined at a sharpening rate, as farmers continued to leave dairying and expansion was deterred by an inadequate base of good forage. The revisions showed that weakness in milk per cow began earlier than previously reported and that cow numbers declined slightly faster. January-February milk output probably rose less than 1 percent on a daily average basis. (During 1995-96, changes in milk cow numbers in the new 20 monthly reporting States consistently ran about 0.5 percent stronger than in all 50 States.) Milk cow numbers continued to decrease, while milk per cow struggled to increase. This sluggishness resulted from forage problems and structural changes already underway before the late-December and January storms. In fact, milk per cow was weakest in some areas relatively free of weather problems. Winter prices for alfalfa hay were record-high, whether measured in dollars per ton, relative to the milk price, or relative to the concentrate feed price. The loss of stored hay and prospective damage to early 1997 season production due to western storms put extra stress on an already tight situation. The supply of high quality hay is much tighter than for lower quality alfalfa. Farmers without a full assured supply of good forage will face lower returns as well as substantial problems maintaining milk per cow. Forage conditions cannot ease much until at least midyear. Higher soybean meal prices are limiting declines in concentrate ration values. Along with a much wider spread between ingredient prices and ration value, protein prices are projected to hold the decline in 1997 ration value to 6 to 9 percent, leaving the average significantly above any year except 1996. Most milk producers are expected to have relatively favorable returns again this year, but the milk-feed price ratio will stay modestly unfavorable to growth in milk per cow. This year's returns over concentrate costs are projected to lose only about half of the 15-percent 1996 jump. Returns in 1997 should provide additional incentive for some farms to expand. Milk-feed price ratios will be lackluster, particularly through the first half. Producers will remain cautious about increasing concentrate feeding and opportunities to compensate profitably for forage deficiencies will be relatively limited. Lack of good forage will tend to deter farm expansion until the new crop is available. In fact, high forage prices might even encourage some producers to sell their forage and get out of dairying early. Milk cow numbers are projected to run about 1.5 percent below a year earlier through summer. If forage development is relatively normal, repetition of last year's collapse in milk per cow will likely be avoided. Although spring and summer increases from a year earlier probably will be relatively large, milk per cow is expected to stay below the long-run trend. If the forage base is sound, the returns of 1996-97 might trigger substantial renewed expansion in milk production, possibly starting as soon as autumn. The addition of new large units in northern areas is likely to resume. At the same time, the farm exit rate may slow somewhat. However, these expansion pressures will have much more impact on 1998 than 1997 production. For all of 1997, milk production is projected to increase fractionally. Milk per cow probably will rise only about 2 percent from the unchanged level of a year earlier. Milk cow numbers are expected to be more than 1 percent below a year earlier throughout 1997. Prices Recover The February Basic Formula Price (BFP) rebounded to $12.46 per cwt, up more than $1 from the December low and only a little below a year earlier. The recovery in the BFP reflects the January-February increases in cheese and butter prices. The BFP is expected to stay near current levels through spring. This will hold the year-to-year decline in average prices of all milk to less than $1 per cwt. The BFP is projected to start seasonal rises in summer, to be followed by a sizable autumn rise. Summer prices of all milk are likely to be sharply below the very high prices of 1996. Despite higher manufacturing values, average autumn prices are expected to be modestly below 1996. Although 1997 farm milk prices are projected to decline about $1 per cwt from a year-earlier, they still may be the second highest ever. In mid-March, American cheese prices were 11-14 cents per pound above December lows, having regained about one-fourth of the earlier plunge. Similarly, butter prices were up 42-43 cents, more than half the autumn drop. The resumption of sales increases and the very modest recovery in milk production confirmed that prices had over-reacted to the late-summer easing of market conditions. March prices probably were fairly well aligned with supply-demand conditions. Although cheese demand is likely to be fairly solid, supplies will remain rather uncertain. The increase in February milk output was enough to trim barrel prices a little. Prices are projected to stay near current levels through spring. However, any signs of significant production weakness could quickly send prices higher. Domestic sales of milkfat products are still responding to the long period of price declines--even though that period effectively ended in 1994. So far, the domestic sales momentum has rather easily absorbed the drop in 1997 commercial exports. Domestic demand is thought to be strong enough to support recent prices, but this is an uncertain conclusion. Like cheese prices, butter prices will be sensitive to any production faltering. Butter prices probably will rise as the tight summer season nears. Prices of nonfat dry milk were fairly steady between mid-January and mid-March. Continued good use in processed foods, stronger cheese prices, and the availability of export contracts under the Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP) helped to firm powder prices. Seasonal rises in production might weaken spring prices a bit, particularly if DEIP sales develop slowly, but prices probably will remain relatively strong. Retail dairy prices started downward fairly quickly last autumn and in February were almost 2 percent below the October-November peak. Despite the declines, the farm-retail price spread was sharply higher than a year earlier. Retail prices are projected to decline slowly through midyear but will remain well above a year earlier. During the second half, seasonally rising wholesale and farm prices are expected to forestall further declines in retail prices. Second-half prices are projected to be below a year earlier. Even so, retail dairy prices probably will average 1 to 3 percent above 1996. The farm-retail spread is projected to rise 6 to 9 percent. In 1996, retail dairy prices rose about 7 percent, almost all due to higher farm prices. This was the largest increase in retail prices since 1990. The farm-retail spread was just barely above a year earlier, as a large autumn rise offset declines during the first 3 quarters. Retail prices generally lagged rising farm prices from autumn 1995 through summer 1996. Sales Bounce Back Commercial use of many dairy products bounced back to post gains in December-January, once wholesale price declines stopped. This recovery indicates that dairy demand remains fairly strong and should easily absorb winter supplies. In addition, it implies that the strong July-August wholesale movement and the subsequent September-October relative weakness represented primarily a swelling and reduction cycle in pipeline stocks. Final sales to consumers probably grew at a much more stable rate. Further economic expansion is projected to boost consumer incomes and dairy product demand. During the first half of 1997, retail dairy prices will be much above a year earlier, hindering retail sales. However, prices to wholesale users will be fairly favorable to sales growth, as will be second-half retail prices. Sales of both milkfat and skim solids are projected to rise about 1 percent in 1997, with larger gains in the second half than the first. In 1997, commercial use of cheese is expected to rise modestly, possibly similar to 1996's 2 percent. Domestic butter sales are projected to be about steady, but total commercial use may slip because of smaller commercial exports. Disappearance of nonfat dry milk may decline. Although use in processed foods is expected to stay strong, conditions are not likely to be as conducive to use of powder in cheesemaking. Fluid milk sales are expected to repeat 1996's fractional rise. Sales of perishable manufactured products probably will continue soft. Sales of frozen desserts and cottage cheese have been somewhat weak in recent years as their prices have risen more rapidly than most retail dairy prices. Relatively large amounts of cream from the fluid industry made more milkfat available during October-January, but skim milk for manufacturing was near a year earlier. More milk was needed to meet cheese demand, leaving butter production stable to slightly higher and nonfat dry milk output down. Larger milk output should make more skim milk available in coming months, but availability of milkfat may not expand. If the fat test of 1997 milk drops back to more typical levels, the milkfat manufactured would be about the same as in 1996. Cheese production is projected to rise modestly in 1997. Butter output may post increases during spring and summer but is expected to slip slightly for the year. Nonfat dry milk production is projected to decline modestly. However, major product markets are all expected to be fairly tight and aligned. A substantial demand shift for any product easily could alter production patterns. February 1 commercial stocks of dairy products were 6 percent larger than a year earlier because of larger American cheese inventories. Butter and nonfat dry milk stocks were near a year earlier, while other cheese holdings were down. In general, commercial stocks probably were near normal seasonal needs. In 1996, commercial stocks data for cheese showed sizable increases from 1995 throughout the year, particularly for American cheese. However, several warehouses reported data in 1996 that had not done so earlier. Much of the apparent stock increases was due to this improved coverage. The data for the end of January reflect the autumn buildup in cheese stocks better than do the data for late 1996. Commercial stocks may tend to run somewhat higher in 1997, at least through summer. Lean stocks resulted in foregone inventory profits in both 1995 and 1996. In addition, supplies will remain particularly uncertain until the effects of 1997 forage crops can be seen. Government removals under the price support program were almost negligible in 1996, perhaps fittingly in the year legislation was enacted to phase out the purchase program. The 0.1 billion pounds milk equivalent, milkfat basis, and 0.8 billion pounds milk equivalent, skim solids basis, were the smallest in the history of the price support program except for 2 years during the Korean War. There were no price support purchases in 1996, and exports under DEIP were limited by very tight domestic markets and weak international markets. Removals under DEIP were 64 million pounds of nonfat dry milk and 5 million pounds each of cheese and dry whole milk. About 6 million pounds of nonfat dry milk were sold back to the industry for unrestricted use. Removals in 1996 were down substantially from 1995 for all products except cheese. DEIP Contracts Modest New contracting under DEIP has been active in recent months, but the quantities covered have been modest. From December through mid-March, DEIP contracts were accepted for about 18,500 metric tons of nonfat dry milk, about 1,200 tons of dry whole milk, and less than 1,000 tons each of cheese and butter. These totals were similar to those of a year earlier. Activity under DEIP reflects the current state of international and domestic markets. Winter is normally the season of greatest accessibility of U.S. dairy products. However, relatively tight markets with substantial uncertainty about conditions later in 1997 have made manufacturers comfortable with holding stocks of dry milk rather than pursuing export deals. On the other side, importers have not been in a rush to make future commitments, in part because strength in the U.S. dollar might lead to softer prices. Exports under DEIP are expected to be generally above a year earlier during most of 1997. Supply commitments from U.S. manufacturers should be much easier to obtain than they were last year. However, world import demand is not expected to be very aggressive. Current use seems to be fairly closely matched with available supplies, and importers have relatively little reason to buy ahead. This year's DEIP shipments are expected to be fairly modest. Except for butter, commercial dairy exports are projected to follow their recent pattern of gradual growth. A historically small but still significant price gap makes niche market exports feasible but generally rules out bulk commodity business. Commercial butter exports are projected to decline substantially in 1997 because the U.S. is unlikely to be price competitive at any time. Imports of milkfat products probably will run closer to quota levels in 1997, reflecting the longer period of significant price gap. Changes in cheese imports are less certain. A significant price gap is projected throughout the year. However, international supplies are relatively tight and the U.S. is not necessarily the most attractive market for subsidized European cheese. If the EU drops or further reduces subsidies on exports to the U.S. as rumored, U.S. imports could decline significantly. International dairy markets have stayed fairly well balanced. New Zealand is closing a strong production season on a very strong note. Larger Australian output also contributed to a boost in Oceanic supplies. Supplies from the EU have been temporarily reduced. Favorable conditions earlier in the April-March quota year led to reduced marketings recently, as producers attempt to limit over-quota production. Current supplies are being readily absorbed, with Oceanic supplies reportedly almost all committed for the season. However, importers have been content to buy only current needs and some large buyers have reduced imports. Dry milk prices have varied in a fairly narrow range since the start of the year. This stability actually represents some gradual increases in light of the strengthening U.S. dollar. Moderate purchases by Mexico and Algeria have lent strength, while growth in Asian markets has fairly well absorbed Oceanic supplies. Butter prices have edged higher since 1997 began, mostly on the basis of Russian buying. Although U.S. butter remains available because of DEIP, U.S. sellers have sought export sales less aggressively than in 1996. International prices are expected to stay fairly steady. European supplies will grow with the start of the new quota year and normal seasonal increases. However, the U.S. exportable surplus will be small, and Oceanic supplies are taken care of until late 1997. Price increases might be triggered by a surge in imports by large buyers, but such import buying would be inconsistent with recent behavior or conditions as currently understood. Cattle Slaughter Adjustments Begin Cyclical transitions in cattle slaughter appear to be very much on schedule. Following more than cyclical increases in beef cow slaughter in 1996 due to record grain prices and poor forage conditions in much of the country, beef cow slaughter is beginning to move below a year earlier. Although the transition away from herd liquidation likely began in mid-February, the cattle inventory will continue to decline at least through 1998 and likely through much of 1999. Beef production will be supported through much of 1997 by large inventories of cattle on feed. On March 1, 1997, cattle on feed in the historic 7 States with over 1,000 head of capacity were up 8 percent from a year earlier, and up 7 percent from 2 years ago. Cattle and beef prices are already beginning to reflect the impact of lower grain prices and a changing slaughter mix. The central Illinois corn price in March is likely to average near $2.90 a bushel, down from the $3.92 average a year earlier. Although world grain stocks are rising, U.S. stocks remain relatively tight. Prospects for the 1997 crops will begin to come into focus with release of the Prospective Plantings report on March 31 and weekly Crop Progress reports in April through May. Abundant moisture in most areas is already supporting strong prices for lighter-weight stocker feeder cattle, with 500- to 550-pound steers in March averaging in the upper $80's per cwt, up from $59.30 a year earlier. Prices for 750- to 800-pound yearlings are up about $15 per cwt from March 1996's $55.78. Slaughter cattle prices are up by a lesser degree, Choice slaughter steer prices are up about $5 a cwt, while Utility cow prices are up about $2 to $3. Feeder cattle supplies will continue to tighten over the next couple of years, leading to declining beef supplies and further price gains. Retail prices for Choice beef have been fairly flat with a year earlier, but processing beef prices are rising already in anticipation of increased fast food specials and lower cow beef supplies. Prices for 90 percent lean beef averaged about $80 a cwt in March 1996, but near $100 this year, with prices having peaked in early March near $110. Export demand likely remains lackluster, thus reducing the necessity of carrying cattle to heavier slaughter weights to reach the Choice-Prime grade. Retail prices are likely to rise modestly through the third quarter, with a sharper rise in the fourth quarter and through 1998. Export demand will remain uncertain until consumer confidence in many countries over BSE and E-coli problems is restored. Reduced world beef demand and stronger U.S. prices will cause larger supplies of processing beef to be imported into the U.S. Hog Prices Weak First-quarter slaughter is below earlier expectations, but average dressed weights are heavier. As a result, pork production is only slightly below earlier forecasts. Hog prices are below expectations. The weakness likely stems from packers bidding less aggressively for hogs to raise slaughter margins; weaker export demand, especially to Japan due to the lower yen relative to the dollar; and large supplies of other meats at relatively lower prices. Weekly hog slaughter is rising seasonally and is likely near the first-half peak. Hog prices are dropping, but are expected to dip into the mid $40s per cwt, before rising seasonally later this spring as pork production declines. Wholesale pork prices also are weakening and are becoming more competitive with other meats. However, retailers may be reluctant to schedule features because of uncertain future pork production. The March Hogs and Pigs report to be released on March 27 will provide additional information concerning slaughter rates and pork production during the remaining months of 1997. Broiler Prices Above Last Year Low production increases have helped keep prices stronger than a year ago for whole birds and all parts prices. March wholesale prices should be 5-10 percent higher than a year ago. Prices for leg quarters have held about constant since February but are comparable to low year-ago prices when exports were slowed into the Russian market. Wing prices have weakened about 20 cents from January, as shipments to China have been slowed, but are still about 10 percent above a year ago. Retail prices are expected to be about 3 percent above a year ago for the first quarter of 1997. Production has not increased as rapidly as expected during the first quarter of 1997. Current estimates are for about a 2-percent increase in production for the quarter with a stronger increase expected for March at about 3 percent. Production costs are currently about 2 cents per pound lower than a year ago and, combined with higher prices, should provide incentive for stronger production increases later in the year. In support of future production growth, the pullet hatch for potential use in the hatchery supply flock was up 7 percent in January. Turkey Production Expected To Rise Turkey production in March should increase about 4 percent from a year ago with more birds available for slaughter at slightly heavier weights. Production for the first quarter will increase about 2 percent. Wholesale whole turkey prices are about 10 percent below a year ago in early March. Larger stocks are keeping prices relatively weak. While production costs are about 2 cents per pound below a year ago, lower prices are putting additional pressure on producer profitability. Retail prices were above a year ago during January but are expected to be nearly unchanged for the quarter. Retailers are expected to have attractive features on whole frozen birds for Easter in the last week of March. Egg Production Increasing Table egg production is expected to increase 2-3 percent in March with a 1- to 2-percent larger production flock and increased productivity per hen. Feed costs are about 4 cents per dozen below a year ago, but price declines have kept returns nearly unchanged from last year. March wholesale egg prices are expected to be about 5 percent below a year ago even as they strengthen significantly to above 90 cents per dozen prior to Easter. Retail egg prices are expected to be about 3 percent below a year ago as retail prices fall more slowly than wholesale prices. Broiler Exports Threatened by Actions in Russia and China U.S. broiler exports reached 4.4 billion pounds in 1996 and had been forecast to rise to 5.1 billion pounds in 1997. However, so far in 1997, confusion over the collection of import duties and new import regulations have slowed U.S. exports to Russia and China, the two largest markets. In 1996, exports to Russia and China accounted for 60 percent of all broiler shipments on a quantity basis. Exports of leg quarters to Russia have been slowed as Russian customs agents enforce collection of import duties. In the Chinese market, the Animal and Plant Quarantine Bureau (CAPQ) has stopped shipments of poultry products for those importers who have not complied with new import regulations. The problem is not a food safety issue since much of the confiscated product was later sold at auction. U.S. dairy situation at a glance Unit 1993 1994 1995 1996 Milk production: Production (20 States) Mil. lb. 129577 129819 131780 131359 Milk cow (20 States) Thou. 8153 7853 7861.75 7807.333 Milk per cow (20 States) Lb. 15893 16531 16762 16825 Production (U.S. est.) Mil. lb. 150582 153664 155423 154269 Milk prices: All milk Dol./cwt 12.8 12.96667 12.74167 14.74167 Milk eligible for fluid use Dol./cwt 12.85833 13.025 12.78333 14.8 Manufacturing grade milk Dol./cwt 11.75833 11.825 11.775 13.4 Minnesota-Wisconsin (3.5% fat)Dol./cwt 11.79667 12.00417 11.83167 13.39 Slaughter Cow, Wisc: Dol./cwt 0 44.91528 38.10556 32.90896 Wholesale prices: Grade A butter Ct/lb 74.35917 67.3675 75.58833 100.3517 American cheese, WI assembly pt. 40-pound blocks Ct/lb 131.5158 131.4483 132.7742 149.1375 Barrels Ct/lb 126.1183 85.7975 117.2867 141.72 Nonfat dry milk, Central StatesCt/lb 112.0342 107.9292 108.5792 122.1592 Retail prices (BLS): Consumer Price Index 1982-84=100 144.4583 148.225 152.3833 156.85 All food 1982-84=100 140.8583 144.275 148.4167 153.2833 Dairy products 1982-84=100 129.3667 131.7417 132.8333 142.0917 Fluid milk and cream 1982-84=100 128.725 132.225 132.3167 142.425 Manufactured products 1982-84=100 130.5917 131.8583 133.95 142.4083 Dairy product output: Butter Mil. lb 1315.198 1295.942 1260.736 1166.2 American cheese Mil. lb 2957.26 2974.42 3128.568 3291.081 Other-than-American cheese Mil. lb 3570.912 3760.271 3754.571 3880.632 Frozen products 1/ Mil. gal. 1198.295 1242.714 1216.986 1203.864 All products (milkfat basis 2/) Mil. lb 93507.93 95048.62 95197.81 94192.67 Nonfat dry milk Mil. lb 954.485 1230.855 1233.838 1056.588 Beginning stocks: Commercial butter Mil. lb 24.547 14.633 12.235 25.407 Commercial American cheese Mil. lb 333.072 356.564 309.499 317.742 Other cheese Mil. lb 120.896 107.043 126.845 131.51 Manufacturers' nonfat dry milk Mil. lb 77.39 79.873 103.468 114.773 All commercial (milkfat basis) Mil. lb 4687.163 4549.045 4262.548 4707.582 All commercial (skim solids basis)Mil.lb 5572.842 5656.383 5712.064 6021.19 All Government (milkfat basis) Mil. lb 9526.101 5019.561 1497.073 1458.2 All Government (skim solids basis)Mil.lb 264.768 161.434 341.238 321.16 Commercial disappearance: Butter Mil. lb 1040.646 1097.331 1182.413 1171.426 American cheese Mil. lb 2945.489 3031.498 3145.717 3239.93 Other-than-American cheese Mil. lb 3884.265 4055.085 4094.844 4186.776 Nonfat dry milk Mil. lb 648.628 918.26 924.292 1003.055 All products (milkfat basis 2/) Mil. lb 145041 150323 154856 155054 USDA net removals: Butter Mil. lb 288.84 204.349 78.46 0.07 Cheese Mil. lb 8.279 6.91 6.054 4.594 Nonfat dry milk Mil. lb 304.343 290.035 343.788 58.464 All products (milkfat basis 2/) Mil. lb 6649.82 4803.944 2105.673 92.343 All products (skim solids basis 2/)Mil.lb 3900.284 3723.625 4374.228 766.881 Imports (milkfat basis 2/) Mil. lb 2806 2880.167 2935.58 2911.413 International market prices: Butter $/metric ton 1545 1660.222 2143.319 1978.569 Nonfat dry milk $/metric ton1342.833 1403.625 2250.542 1832.949 1/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, and sherber 2/ Milk equivalent. NA = Not Available. Dec-95 Jan-96 Feb-96 Mar-96 Apr-96 Milk production: Production (22 States) 10881 11100 10545 11483 11260 Milk cow (22 States) 7851 7846 7828 7822 7818 Milk per cow (22 States) 1386 1415 1347 1468 1440 Production (U.S. est.) 12804 13084 12427 13531 13241 Milk prices: All milk 13.9 14 13.8 13.7 13.9 Milk eligible for fluid use 14 14 13.9 13.7 13.9 Manufacturing grade milk 12.9 12.7 12.6 12.6 13 Minnesota-Wisconsin (3.5% fat) 12.91 12.73 12.59 12.7 13.09 Slaughter Cow, Wisc: 32.3125 34.15 33.88 33.625 32.69 Wholesale prices: Grade A butter 74.37 75.42 66.42 65.5 68.96 American cheese, WI assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 144.56 139.29 139.33 140.87 145.1 Barrels 135.38 133.48 134.03 135.19 139.77 Nonfat dry milk, Central States 117.61 114.85 110.84 110.08 110.32 Retail prices (BLS): Consumer Price Index 153.5 154.4 154.9 155.7 156.3 All food 149.9 151 150.8 151.6 152.3 Dairy products 135 136.3 137.2 136.7 137 Fluid milk and cream 134.5 136.8 137.3 137.4 137.4 Manufactured products 136.2 136.5 137.7 136.7 137.2 Dairy product output: Butter 112.419 125.431 118.088 113.249 107.907 American cheese 279.877 275.432 270.824 286.133 277.215 Other-than-American cheese 338.533 310.021 305.922 335.793 324.288 Frozen products 1/ 69.57 77.724 85.678 98.585 107.215 All products (milkfat basis 2/) 7795.8 7932.6 7848.95 8257.24 8170.48 Nonfat dry milk 101.799 98.945 92.967 104.443 113.063 Beginning stocks: Commercial butter 11.346 15.831 22.07 30.158 47.396 Commercial American cheese 297.604 306.579 346.065 354.483 356.22 Other cheese 95.692 105.266 124.088 128.455 141.974 Manufacturers' nonfat dry milk 50.279 70.6 71.687 80.018 98.399 All commercial (milkfat basis) 3858.948 4098.988 4749.553 5055.109 5570.327 All commercial(skim solids basis)4631.315 5037.448 5638.479 5881.688 6269.274 All Government (milkfat basis) 104.655 68.575 79.738 81.648 33.554 All Government (skim solids basis)189.214 172.395 164.616 122.16 115.08 Commercial disappearance: Butter 108.212 120.704 110.187 96.061 118.177 American cheese 272.111 236.295 262.745 285.165 257.939 Other-than-American cheese 367.298 303.8 318.027 342.468 337.728 Nonfat dry milk 74.764 95.557 80.635 78.46 103.271 All products (milkfat basis 2/) 12769 12464 12150 13061 13265 USDA net removals: Butter 0 0 0 0 0 Cheese 0.313 0.239 0.211 0.444 0.443 Nonfat dry milk 7.092 2.456 4.011 7.911 8.217 All products (milkfat basis 2/) 7.423 3.641 4.562 10.719 11.629 All products (skim solids basis 2/)89.069 31.983 50.768 102.09 106.621 Imports (milkfat basis 2/) 342.629 151.408 149.529 177.733 192.05 International market prices: Butter 2238 2229.333 2138 2074 2006 Nonfat dry milk 2562.5 2404.333 2112.5 2063 2047 1/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, and sherbert. 2/ Milk equivalent. NA = Not Available. May-96 Jun-96 Jul-96 Aug-96 Sep-96 Milk production: Production (22 States) 11554 10920 10939 10780 10454 Milk cow (22 States) 7816 7818 7815 7802 7795 Milk per cow (22 States) 1478 1397 1400 1382 1341 Production (U.S. est.) 13575 12806 12811 12613 12234 Milk prices: All milk 14.3 14.6 15.3 15.8 16.3 Milk eligible for fluid use 14.3 14.7 15.4 15.8 16.4 Manufacturing grade milk 13.4 13.6 13.9 14.6 15.3 Minnesota-Wisconsin (3.5% fat) 13.77 13.92 14.49 14.94 15.37 Slaughter Cow, Wisc: 34 33.3125 34.25 34.5 32.8125 Wholesale prices: Grade A butter 87.79 129.25 145.27 145.5 145.5 American cheese, WI assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 151.75 151.5 158.18 167.56 173.9 Barrels 146.16 145.75 152.31 160.5 168.09 Nonfat dry milk, Central States 116 129.75 132.57 130.91 131.9 Retail prices (BLS): Consumer Price Index 156.6 156.7 157 157.3 157.8 All food 152 152.6 153.2 153.7 154.6 Dairy products 137.6 139.8 142 144.6 146.7 Fluid milk and cream 137.7 140.7 142.4 144.4 145.6 Manufactured products 138.2 139.5 142.2 145.5 148.5 Dairy product output: Butter 100.732 72.949 72.05 73.165 80.951 American cheese 299.335 281.917 267.653 262.293 260.199 Other-than-American cheese 329.082 314.017 303.777 319.556 324.864 Frozen products 1/ 119.263 128.772 130.018 118.318 98.715 All products (milkfat basis 2/) 8508.58 7873.87 7699.11 7593.23 7469.37 Nonfat dry milk 112.647 93.412 80.702 61.708 56.216 Beginning stocks: Commercial butter 37.24 32.989 28.877 30.861 26.456 Commercial American cheese 376.522 389.592 392.853 397.577 381.016 Other cheese 148.894 152.171 149.88 138.857 125.701 Manufacturers' nonfat dry milk 100.272 86.463 82.488 76.801 66.089 All commercial (milkfat basis) 5605.505 5653.007 5567.054 5542.839 5183.449 All commercial(skim solids basis)6577.295 6575.288 6529.187 6370.844 5939.61 All Government (milkfat basis) 60.261 25.269 20.919 21.245 23.979 All Government (skim solids basis)121.847 20.219 20.22 8.965 11.036 Commercial disappearance: Butter 105.085 77.156 70.071 77.672 86.802 American cheese 286.218 278.999 265.383 281.999 272.186 Other-than-American cheese 348.785 339.066 341.136 362.785 357.49 Nonfat dry milk 123.339 91.04 82.71 69.224 71.3 All products (milkfat basis 2/) 13593 12973 12940 13152 12656 USDA net removals: Butter 0 0 0 0 0 Cheese 0.446 0.521 0.512 0.441 0.28 Nonfat dry milk 3.568 7.123 4.972 4.017 1.154 All products (milkfat basis 2/) 10.107 7.48 7.884 6.838 4.405 All products (skim solids basis 2/)51.931 89.339 65.316 53.29 18.005 Imports (milkfat basis 2/) 199.624 199.175 243.681 298.209 294.813 International market prices: Butter 1955 1921.25 1905 1862.5 1850 Nonfat dry milk 1764 1726.25 1694.8 1743.5 1712.5 1/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, and sherber 2/ Milk equivalent. NA = Not Available. Oct-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 Milk production: Production (22 States) 10825 10493 11006 11163 10355 Milk cow (22 States) 7788 7775 7765 7757 7747 Milk per cow (22 States) 1390 1350 1417 1439 1337 Production (U.S. est.) 12738 12372 12837 13100 12143 Milk prices: All milk 16.1 15 14.1 13.4 13.3 Milk eligible for fluid use 16.2 15.1 14.2 13.4 13.3 Manufacturing grade milk 14.7 12.5 11.9 12.1 12.2 Minnesota-Wisconsin (3.5% fat) 14.13 11.61 11.34 11.94 12.46 Slaughter Cow, Wisc: 32.25 29.8125 29.625 32.8 35.0625 Wholesale prices: Grade A butter 128.64 74.12 71.85 81.89 98.38 American cheese, WI assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 162.26 133.93 125.98 127.9 132.25 Barrels 148.18 121.55 115.63 123.66 127.54 Nonfat dry milk, Central States 131.55 126.59 120.55 113.94 114.91 Retail prices (BLS): Consumer Price Index 158.3 158.6 158.6 159.1 159.6 All food 155.4 155.9 156.3 156.5 156.5 Dairy products 149.3 149.3 148.6 147.8 146.2 Fluid milk and cream 149 150.5 149.9 148.9 146.1 Manufactured products 150.2 148.8 147.9 147.4 147 Dairy product output: Butter 95.483 95.127 111.068 125.386 NA American cheese 265.282 260.815 283.983 281.148 NA Other-than-American cheese 342.921 326.062 344.329 317.921 NA Frozen products 1/ 90.929 73.712 74.935 85.45 NA All products (milkfat basis 2/) 7675.96 7235 7928.28 8156.24 NA Nonfat dry milk 65.813 75.358 101.314 92.372 NA Beginning stocks: Commercial butter 20.885 20.268 17.401 13.413 21.534 Commercial American cheese 372.365 379.295 369.63 379.626 390.844 Other cheese 123.246 115.156 110.53 107.277 113.669 Manufacturers' nonfat dry milk 50.233 47.216 49.21 71.11 75.498 All commercial (milkfat basis) 4936.027 4889.916 4684.565 4703.732 5045.942 All commercial(skim solids basis)5618.183 5534.69 5394.958 5753.419 5994.665 All Government (milkfat basis) 17.167 10.997 9.382 9.949 5.748 All Government (skim solids basis) 9.956 9.036 8.754 7.228 1.42 Commercial disappearance: Butter 96.201 98.145 115.165 NA NA American cheese 261.889 273.918 277.194 NA NA Other-than-American cheese 383.601 365.87 386.02 NA NA Nonfat dry milk 66.083 68.133 73.303 NA NA All products (milkfat basis 2/) 12946 12731 13123 NA NA USDA net removals: Butter 0 0 0.07 0.828 NA Cheese 0.333 0.369 0.355 0.529 NA Nonfat dry milk 3.202 5.38 6.453 10.029 NA All products (milkfat basis 2/) 5.842 8.935 10.301 29.42 NA All products(skim solids basis 2/)42.941 71.272 83.325 126.995 NA Imports (milkfat basis 2/) 307.953 333.833 363.405 NA NA International market prices: Butter 1918 1930.25 1953.5 1917 1887.5 Nonfat dry milk 1550 1512.5 1665 1648 1737.5 1/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, and sherber 2/ Milk equivalent. NA = Not Available. U.S. milk production and related data Unit 1995 1996 Milk cows Thou. 9500 9458 Milk per cow Lb. 16175 16433 Milk production Mil. lb. 153664 155425 Concentrate ration Dol./cwt. 7.88 9.3 Milk-feed price ratio Dol./cwt. 1.62 1.63 ----------------------------------- Unit 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Milk cows Thou. 9469 9473 9462 9428 Milk per cow Lb. 4113 4276 4040 4003 Milk production Mil. lb. 38943 40510 38231 37740 Concentrate ration Dol./cwt. 7.62 7.62 7.82 8.24 Milk-feed price ratio Dol./cwt. 1.65 1.6 1.59 1.67 1996 ----------------------------------- Unit 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Milk cows Thou. 9397 9369 9338 9300 Milk per cow Lb. 4155 4229 4033 4080 Milk production Mil. lb. 39042 39621 37658 37947 Concentrate ration Dol./cwt. 8.83 9.51 9.7 9.16 Milk-feed price ratio Dol./cwt. 1.57 1.5 1.63 1.65 Milk production and factors affecting supply, 1975-96 January 1 inventory Milk production Milk cows and Replacement ReplacementAverage Per cow heifers that heifers 500 per 100 cowcows Year have calved lbs. and over on farms -------------------Thousand--------------Thousand Pounds Million pounds 1975 11220 4087 36.4 11139 10360 115398 1976 11071 3956 35.7 11032 10894 120180 1977 10998 3887 35.3 10945 11206 122654 1978 10896 3886 35.7 10803 11243 121461 1979 10790 3932 36.4 10734 11492 123350 1980 10758 4159 38.6 10799 11891 128406 1981 10849 4342 40 10898 12183 132770 1982 10986 4547 41.4 11011 12306 135505 1983 11047 4545 41.1 11059 12622 139588 1984 11059 4533 41 10793 12541 135351 1985 10777 4770 44.3 10981 13024 143012 1986 11116 4709 42.4 10773 13285 143124 1987 10466 4305 41.1 10327 13819 142709 1988 10311 4122 40 10224 14185 145034 1989 10137 4117 40.6 10046 14323 143893 1990 10015 4171 41.6 9993 14782 147721 1991 9965 4093 41.1 9826 15031 147697 1992 9728 4131 42.5 9688 15570 150847 1993 9658 4176 43.2 9589 15704 150582 1994 9528 4144 43.5 9500 16175 153664 1995 1/ 9487 4141 43.6 9458 16433 155425 1996 1/ 9416 4104 43.6 9351 16498 154268 Average milk prices received by farmers per cwt All Eligible Manufacturing for fluid grade Year market ------------------Dollars---------------- 1975 8.75 9.02 7.63 1976 9.66 9.93 8.56 1977 9.72 9.96 8.7 1978 10.6 10.8 9.65 1979 12.02 12.2 11.06 1980 13.05 13.23 12.01 1981 13.77 13.95 12.72 1982 13.61 13.8 12.6 1983 13.58 13.75 12.61 1984 13.46 13.61 12.49 1985 12.76 12.9 11.72 1986 12.51 12.62 11.46 1987 12.54 12.66 11.37 1988 12.26 12.36 11.15 1989 13.56 13.66 12.38 1990 13.74 13.89 12.34 1991 12.27 12.3 11.05 1992 13.15 13.19 11.91 1993 12.84 12.88 11.8 1994 13.01 13.02 11.85 1995 1/ 12.78 12.8 11.79 1996 1/ 14.74 14.8 13.4 Dairy ration Milk cow cost Milk/feed Price Milk re- value price received quired to Year per cwt ratio 2/ per head buy a cow Dollars Pounds Dollars Cwt 1975 6.25 1.4 412 47 1976 6.3 1.53 477 49 1977 6.2 1.57 504 52 1978 6.08 1.74 675 64 1979 6.68 1.8 1040 87 1980 7.42 1.76 1190 91 1981 8.02 1.72 1200 87 1982 7.45 1.83 1110 82 1983 7.88 1.72 1030 76 1984 8.16 1.65 895 66 1985 7.35 1.73 860 67 1986 7 1.79 820 66 1987 6.81 1.84 920 73 1988 7.74 1.58 990 81 1989 8.2 1.65 1030 76 1990 7.98 1.71 1160 84 1991 7.73 1.58 1100 90 1992 7.68 1.69 1130 86 1993 7.73 1.64 1160 90 1994 7.98 1.62 1170 90 1995 1/ 7.88 1.63 1130 88 1996 1/ 9.3 1.58 1087 74 1/ Preliminary or projected. 2/ Pounds of average concentrate ration equal in equal in value to 1 pound of milk. 3/ Utility grade, Omaha 1965-87, Wisconsin auctions 1988 and after. NA = Not Avai Grain and other concentrates fed to milk cows Alfalfa hay prices Slaughter Total Per Per cwt received cow prices 3/ cow of milk by farmers per cwt Year produced per ton Dollars Thousand Pounds Pounds tons 1975 24274 4357 42.1 54.38 21.09 1976 25083 4545 41.7 60.81 25.31 1977 25518 4709 42.1 60.57 25.32 1978 26018 4803 42.8 52.25 36.79 1979 27207 5070 44.1 60.37 50.1 1980 28433 5260 44.2 72 45.73 1981 28513 5220 42.9 70.9 41.93 1982 29661 5380 43.7 72.73 39.96 1983 30162 5438 43.2 78.7 39.35 1984 28449 5253 42 79.48 39.81 1985 28891 5427 41.8 73.67 38.31 1986 29913 5534 41.8 64.85 37.18 1987 29607 5736 41.6 65.97 44.8 1988 29853 5820 41.2 82.51 47.91 1989 29602 5845 41 95.98 50.11 1990 32402 6397 43.7 92.56 53.32 1991 30934 6192 41.7 78.96 51.5 1992 31572 6417 41.6 75.45 49.69 1993 31952 6664 42.4 86.67 50.14 1994 32469 6840 42.3 93.97 45.03 1995 1/ 32034 6777 41.2 88.09 38.12 1996 1/ NA NA NA 94.12 32.91 1/ Preliminary or projected. 2/ Pounds of average concentrate ration equal in value to 1 pound of milk. 3/ Utility grade, Omaha 1965-87, Wisconsin auctions 1988 and after. NA = Not Available. Table 3--Milk prodMilk cows and production by state and region, 1994-96 State and region State and region Milk Cows 1994 1995 1996 1/ 1,000 head Northeast 1,765 1,748 1,738 Maine 40 40 40 New Hampshire 20 20 19 Vermont 158 157 156 Massachusetts 29 28 27 Rhode Island 2.2 2.2 2.0 Connecticut 33 32 30 New York 718 703 702 New Jersey 24 23 22 Pennsylvania 639 642 644 Delaware 10 10 9.6 Maryland 92 91 86 Lake States 2,431 2,415 2,367 Michigan 328 326 320 Wisconsin 1,494 1,490 1,449 Minnesota 609 599 598 Corn Belt 1,056 1,035 1,008 Ohio 294 289 285 Indiana 145 144 140 Illinois 165 161 154 Iowa 255 251 250 Missouri 197 190 179 Northern Plains 343 338 325 North Dakota 68 64 62 South Dakota 120 118 112 Nebraska 77 74 69 Kansas 78 82 82 Appalachian 553 524 496 Virginia 130 129 126 West Virginia 22 21 20 North Carolina 90 86 81 Kentucky 168 162 153 Tennessee 143 126 116 Southeast 343 323 311 South Carolina 28 27 26 Georgia 102 100 97 Florida 176 162 156 Alabama 37 34 32 Delta States 197 194 186 Mississippi 57 55 51 Arkansas 61 60 57 Louisiana 79 79 78 Southern Plains 501 498 495 Oklahoma 99 97 97 Texas 402 401 398 Mountain 707 759 797 Montana 21 21 20 Idaho 208 232 256 Wyoming 7 6 6 Colorado 81 83 84 New Mexico 165 191 195 Arizona 116 114 120 Utah 86 88 91 Nevada 22.5 23.5 25 Pacific 1,607 1,628 1,631 Washington 261 266 264 Oregon 100 97 93 California 1,235 1,254 1,264 Alaska 0.7 0.7 0.8 Hawaii 10.7 10.4 9.4 United States 9,503 9,462 9,354 1/ Preliminary. State and region Milk Per Cow 1994 1995 1996 1/ Pounds Northeast 15,785 16,316 16,373 Maine 15,975 16,025 16,200 New Hampshire 15,650 16,300 17,053 Vermont 15,551 16,210 16,603 Massachusetts 15,690 16,000 16,185 Rhode Island 14,364 14,773 15,600 Connecticut 16,061 16,438 16,567 New York 15,877 16,501 16,423 New Jersey 13,750 13,913 13,500 Pennsylvania 16,009 16,511 16,522 Delaware 14,300 14,500 14,479 Maryland 14,511 14,725 15,314 Lake States 15,343 15,700 15,736 Michigan 16,905 17,071 16,969 Wisconsin 15,001 15,397 15,442 Minnesota 15,340 15,708 15,786 Corn Belt 15,148 15,407 15,017 Ohio 15,357 15,917 15,333 Indiana 15,566 15,375 15,471 Illinois 15,448 14,857 15,162 Iowa 15,529 16,135 15,304 Missouri 13,782 14,158 13,631 Northern Plains 13,682 13,888 13,932 North Dakota 12,779 13,094 12,968 South Dakota 13,242 13,398 13,161 Nebraska 14,416 14,797 15,217 Kansas 14,423 14,390 14,634 Appalachian 13,483 14,092 13,754 Virginia 14,800 15,116 14,325 West Virginia 12,364 12,667 12,600 North Carolina 16,367 16,314 15,901 Kentucky 11,946 12,469 12,157 Tennessee 12,448 13,849 13,940 Southeast 14,953 14,889 15,119 South Carolina 14,679 14,481 14,654 Georgia 15,637 15,550 15,320 Florida 14,903 14,698 15,391 Alabama 13,514 14,176 13,563 Delta States 12,228 12,098 11,753 Mississippi 12,825 12,909 12,961 Arkansas 12,344 12,200 12,053 Louisiana 11,709 11,456 10,744 Southern Plains 14,958 14,892 14,899 Oklahoma 12,818 13,433 12,938 Texas 15,485 15,244 15,377 Mountain 18,420 18,342 18,738 Montana 14,619 15,000 15,350 Idaho 18,048 18,147 18,496 Wyoming 13,857 14,100 14,050 Colorado 19,173 18,687 19,440 New Mexico 20,152 18,969 19,221 Arizona 18,397 19,561 20,083 Utah 16,640 16,739 17,000 Nevada 18,356 18,128 18,800 Pacific 20,101 19,948 20,162 Washington 19,935 19,932 19,996 Oregon 17,140 17,289 17,290 California 20,439 20,211 20,458 Alaska 17,971 17,000 16,875 Hawaii 12,991 13,654 13,723 United States 16,170 16,427 16,493 1/ Preliminary. State and region Milk Production 1994 1995 1996 1/ Million pounds Northeast 27,864 28,524 28,449 Maine 639 641 648 New Hampshire 313 326 324 Vermont 2,457 2,545 2,590 Massachusetts 455 448 437 Rhode Island 32 33 31 Connecticut 530 526 497 New York 11,400 11,600 11,529 New Jersey 330 320 297 Pennsylvania 10,230 10,600 10,640 Delaware 143 145 139 Maryland 1,335 1,340 1,317 Lake States 37,299 37,916 37,246 Michigan 5,545 5,565 5,430 Wisconsin 22,412 22,942 22,376 Minnesota 9,342 9,409 9,440 Corn Belt 15,996 15,946 15,137 Ohio 4,515 4,600 4,370 Indiana 2,257 2,214 2,166 Illinois 2,549 2,392 2,335 Iowa 3,960 4,050 3,826 Missouri 2,715 2,690 2,440 Northern Plains 4,693 4,694 4,528 North Dakota 869 838 804 South Dakota 1,589 1,581 1,474 Nebraska 1,110 1,095 1,050 Kansas 1,125 1,180 1,200 Appalachian 7,456 7,384 6,822 Virginia 1,924 1,950 1,805 West Virginia 272 266 252 North Carolina 1,473 1,403 1,288 Kentucky 2,007 2,020 1,860 Tennessee 1,780 1,745 1,617 Southeast 5,129 4,809 4,702 South Carolina 411 391 381 Georgia 1,595 1,555 1,486 Florida 2,623 2,381 2,401 Alabama 500 482 434 Delta States 2,409 2,347 2,186 Mississippi 731 710 661 Arkansas 753 732 687 Louisiana 925 905 838 Southern Plains 7,494 7,416 7,375 Oklahoma 1,269 1,303 1,255 Texas 6,225 6,113 6,120 Mountain 13,014 13,913 14,934 Montana 307 315 307 Idaho 3,754 4,210 4,735 Wyoming 97 85 84 Colorado 1,553 1,551 1,633 New Mexico 3,325 3,623 3,748 Arizona 2,134 2,230 2,410 Utah 1,431 1,473 1,547 Nevada 413 426 470 Pacific 32,311 32,477 32,889 Washington 5,203 5,302 5,279 Oregon 1,714 1,677 1,608 California 25,242 25,344 25,859 Alaska 13 12 14 Hawaii 139 142 129 United States 153,664 155,425 154,268 1/ Preliminary. LIVESTOCK PRICES Mar-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 Mar-97 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 61.77 65.07 65.35 67.75 Nebraska Direct 62.52 65.51 65.48 68.00 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 37.06 28.15 34.06 38.00 Utility boning 32.56 27.77 32.50 35.70 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 62.25 75.08 81.46 86.25 600-650 lb. 58.66 70.92 74.02 78.75 750-800 lb. 55.78 69.72 69.46 69.00 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 52.53 64.68 70.43 75.00 700-750 lb. 52.03 65.50 64.59 65.75 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 48.76 53.09 51.49 47.25 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 49.07 53.42 51.44 47.50 Sows 6 Markets 36.59 48.29 48.68 46.75 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) 43.50 NA NA NA Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 84.07 94.63 100.81 101.50 Ewes, Good 41.13 50.06 52.37 53.50 Feeder lambs, Choice 96.06 109.00 115.00 110.00 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES Mar-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 Mar-97 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 3.92 2.62 2.71 2.90 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 5.53 4.52 4.46 4.53 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 226.57 249.22 262.42 280.00 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 85.50 106.00 115.00 89.10 Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 80.10 99.70 105.00 83.40 /* Estimates MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - Mar-96 Mar-97 Jan-97 Feb-97 Mar-97 /* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 6,303 6,086 2,223 1,920 1,943 Veal 90 82 31 27 24 Pork 4,389 4,186 1,461 1,320 1,405 Lamb 74 65 20 21 24 Total red meat 10,856 10,419 3,735 3,288 3,396 Broilers 6,609 6,619 2,319 2,100 2,200 Other chicken 129 128 43 40 45 Turkeys 1,270 1,282 442 400 440 Total poultry 8,008 8,028 2,803 2,540 2,685 Total meat & poultry 18,864 18,447 6,538 5,828 6,081 Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 8,972 8,878 3,248 2,799 2,831 Steers 4,409 4,175 1,501 1,315 1,359 Heifers 2,673 2,866 1,037 912 917 Beef Cows 924 875 364 268 243 Dairy Cows 802 814 300 254 260 Bulls and stags 160 152 51 50 51 Calves 432 394 147 126 121 Sheep 1,139 627 304 323 Hogs 23,651 22,208 7,758 7,000 7,450 Barrows & gilts 22,561 21,300 7,450 6,715 7,135 Sows 912 760 260 240 260 Broilers 1,879,061 2,493,336 653,336 590,000 630,000 Turkeys 66,992 89,917 22,917 21,000 23,000 Mar-96 Dec-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 Mar-97 /* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 708 685 692 693 694 Calves 212 207 210 214 214 Sheep 67 65 65 66 66 Hogs 185 189 189 189 189 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 362.6 288.0 284.9 290.3 NA Pork 385.5 316.4 313.8 342.4 NA Bellies 46.4 30.9 37.9 38.0 NA Hams 54.9 48.7 33.5 49.8 NA Total chicken 668.2 574.4 647.0 680.8 NA Turkey 423.1 347.8 328.0 400.4 NA Frozen eggs 16.2 10.4 10.2 11.0 NA /* Estimates Annual Forecasts 1994 1995 1996 1997 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 6,605 6,743 6,900 7,058 CPI-U, Annual % Change 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.0 Unemployment rate, % 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.4 3-Month T Bill,% 5.1 5.5 5.0 5.2 10-Year Bond,% 6.2 6.6 6.4 6.4 Production, million lb. Beef 24,278 25,115 25,419 25,225 Pork 17,658 17,811 17,080 17,025 Broilers 23,847 25,021 26,321 27,850 Turkeys 4,992 5,129 5,466 5,625 Total Red Meat & Poultry 71,796 74,070 75,294 76,655 Eggs, mil doz. 5,267 5,269 5,393 5,575 Milk 153,626 155,425 154,268 154,800 Commercial use (mf basis) 150,196 154,857 155,062 156,300 Net removals (mf basis) 4,812 2,102 81 500 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 67.0 67.4 67.6 66.6 Pork 53.1 52.4 49.1 47.8 Broilers 69.4 68.8 70.7 73.9 Turkeys 17.8 17.9 18.4 18.9 Total Red Meat & Poultry 211.0 210.3 209.1 210.1 Eggs, number 238.7 235.8 237.2 242.2 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 68.84 66.24 65.2 65-70 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt. 77.72 68.03 61.1 69-74 Brk Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 42.51 35.57 30.3 37-39 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cwt 40.03 42.35 53.4 53-57 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 55.70 56.38 61.2 58-62 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 65.65 66.35 66.5 64-68 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 67.25 72.85 88.2 81-86 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 13.03 12.74 14.40 13.3-14.1 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 12.01 11.83 13.39 12.4-13.2 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 1,611 1,821 1,877 1,895 Beef & veal imports 2,368 2,104 2,073 2,280 Pork exports 531 770 951 1,110 Pork imports 743 664 618 605 Broiler exports 2,875 3,895 4,420 4,785 Turkey exports 281 348 438 472 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 Quarterly 1994/95 Forecasts QI'95 QII'95 QIII'95 QIV'95 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,701 6,714 6,776 6,781 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.1 3.4 2.0 2.4 Unemployment rate, % 5.5 5.7 5.6 5.6 3-Month T Bill,% 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 7.5 6.6 6.3 5.9 Production, million lb. Beef 5,888 6,325 6,625 6,277 Pork 4,488 4,393 4,241 4,689 Broilers 6,147 6,356 6,182 6,336 Turkeys 1,196 1,297 1,289 1,347 Total Meat 17,993 18,616 18,556 18,905 Eggs, mil doz. 1,318 1,306 1,296 1,350 Milk (mf basis) 38,941 40,520 38,325 37,857 Commercial use 37,643 39,306 39,336 38,728 Net removals 1,046 749 242 111 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.3 17.1 17.6 16.4 Pork 13.1 12.9 12.7 13.7 Broilers 17.2 17.9 17.0 16.7 Turkeys 3.6 3.9 4.2 6.2 Total Meat 51.3 52.8 52.4 53.8 Eggs, number 59.4 58.4 58.3 59.7 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 71.51 64.70 62.65 66.10 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 72.62 65.77 66.17 67.55 Brk Cows,S. Falls 39.58 37.18 34.93 30.61 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 38.56 38.91 48.75 43.19 Broiler,12 City 51.70 53.50 60.70 59.60 Turkeys, Eastern 59.80 61.10 68.70 75.80 Eggs, New York 65.20 63.60 75.20 87.40 Milk, all at plant 12.57 12.23 12.40 13.77 Milk, M-W 11.68 11.23 11.62 12.80 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 368 452 499 502 Beef/veal imports 572 540 539 453 Pork exports 187 194 199 190 Pork imports 173 167 154 170 Broiler exports 873 856 1,019 1,147 Turkey exports 59 83 90 116 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 QI'96 QII'96 QIII'96 QIV'96 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,814 6,885 6,930 7,009 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.8 3.8 2.3 3.2 Unemployment rate, % 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.3 3-Month T Bill,% 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 10-Year Bond,% 5.9 6.7 6.8 6.3 Production, million lb. Beef 6,302 6,642 6,391 6,084 Pork 4,388 4,103 4,141 4,448 Broilers 6,609 6,607 6,592 6,513 Turkeys 1,270 1,382 1,411 1,403 Total Meat 18,848 18,973 18,767 18,706 Eggs, mil doz. 1,330 1,320 1,352 1,392 Milk (mf basis) 39,042 39,621 37,658 37,947 Commercial use 37,675 39,832 38,748 38,807 Net removals 19 29 19 14 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.9 17.5 17.0 16.2 Pork 12.6 11.6 12.0 12.9 Broilers 17.6 18.1 18.0 17.0 Turkeys 3.7 3.9 4.6 6.2 Total Meat 51.8 52.0 52.4 52.9 Eggs, number 58.8 58.0 59.2 61.2 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 63.06 60.26 67.13 70.39 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 58.11 56.87 63.20 66.15 Brk Cows,S. Falls 32.52 30.37 31.74 26.68 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 46.23 54.82 57.75 54.75 Broiler,12 City 56.22 61.07 64.22 63.46 Turkeys, Eastern 64.80 65.40 64.90 70.90 Eggs, New York 89.60 80.50 85.90 96.70 Milk, all at plant 13.83 14.27 15.80 15.07 Milk, M-W 12.67 13.59 14.93 12.36 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 452 544 436 445 Beef/veal imports 508 526 555 484 Pork exports 221 313 180 237 Pork imports 144 155 154 165 Broiler exports 1,075 1,057 1,121 1,167 Turkey exports 96 93 124 125 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 QI'97 QII'97 QIII'97 QIV'97 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 7,048 7,089 7,125 7,167 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 Unemployment rate, % 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 3-Month T Bill,% 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 10-Year Bond,% 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 Production, million lb. Beef 6,100 6,550 6,500 6,075 Pork 4,175 4,100 4,350 4,400 Broilers 6,750 7,050 7,050 7,000 Turkeys 1,300 1,425 1,450 1,450 Total Meat 18,582 19,351 19,564 19,158 Eggs, mil doz. 1,375 1,375 1,400 1,425 Milk (mf basis) 38,500 40,200 38,000 38,100 Commercial use 38,000 39,700 39,200 39,400 Net removals 100 200 200 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.1 17.4 17.2 15.9 Pork 11.9 11.6 12.0 12.3 Broilers 18.2 19.1 18.6 18.0 Turkeys 4.0 4.1 4.5 6.3 Total Meat 51.0 53.0 53.0 53.1 Eggs, number 59.9 59.6 61.1 61.6 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 65-68 63-67 64-70 68-74 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 69-72 68-72 67-73 71-77 Brk Cows,S. Falls 31-32 36-38 40-44 39-43 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 50-53 54-58 54-58 54-58 Broiler,12 City 58-61 58-62 60-64 58-62 Turkeys, Eastern 57-60 61-65 65-71 72-78 Eggs, New York 84-87 79-85 79-85 82-88 Milk, all at plant 12.9-13.4 13.1-13.8 13.2-14.2 14.2-15.2 Milk, M-W 12.1-12.5 12.1-12.8 12.3-13.3 13.1-14.1 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 420 470 500 505 Beef/veal imports 495 580 635 570 Pork exports 215 260 355 280 Pork imports 154 154 142 155 Broiler exports 1,035 1,125 1,275 1,350 Turkey exports 105 113 119 135 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, April 1996 PRODUCTION INDICATORS Feb-96 Dec-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 Cattle: On feed - 7 States, 1,000+ Hd 8,304 9,003 8,943 8,813 Net placements 1,389 1,355 1,598 1,485 Marketings 1,541 1,415 1,728 1,529 Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 566,333 573,500 582,618 575,711 Chicks hatched (000)/2 646,085 694,811 700,467 665,000 Hatching egg layers/1 50,847 50,070 50,935 50,810 Pullets placed (000) 5,916 5,947 5,917 NA Hvy-type hen slaughter 5,118 4,129 5,173 5,200 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 36,343 33,667 34,055 35,802 Poults placed (000) 27,596 27,119 27,130 27,152 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.)/2 420 475 464 415 Table egg layers, (000)/1 244,854 250,645 250,442 248,450 Table eggs/100 layers/1 70.1 73.6 72.9 71.0 Chicks hatched (000) 34,652 33,161 33,331 35,000 Lt.-type hen slaughter 8,231 8,072 9,454 7,500 ESTIMATED RETURNS Mar-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 Mar-97 /* Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 64.12 62.84 60.07 61.46 Selling price 61.77 65.07 65.35 67.75 Net margin -2.35 2.23 5.28 6.29 N. Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price /3 40.76 52.73 49.50 46.90 Selling price 49.07 53.42 51.44 47.50 Net margin 8.31 0.69 1.94 0.60 Broiler Wholesale cost 54.41 52.24 52.08 52.09 Wholesale price 54.31 61.99 59.53 58.00 Net margin -0.10 9.75 7.45 5.91 Turkey Wholesale cost 69.17 67.82 67.25 67.00 Wholesale price 64.26 59.00 57.00 57.50 Net margin -4.91 -8.82 -10.25 -9.50 Egg Wholesale cost 76.68 70.88 70.95 72.22 Wholesale price 94.91 89.62 87.26 87.00 Net margin 18.23 18.74 16.31 14.78 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* estimate RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Feb-96 Dec-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 278.8 287.3 281.7 278.6 Beef - All Fresh 257.6 256.3 256.3 254.7 Ground Beef 140.3 142.4 140.9 139.8 Rib roast 504.0 509.1 529.6 512.1 T-bone steak 556.1 587.4 598.1 587.9 Pork 208.2 231.2 232.7 231.3 Bacon 220.3 264.2 266.4 265.1 Chops 326.8 344.1 346.5 348.5 Picnic 117.5 131.3 133.9 130.6 Chicken - Composite 149.8 154.2 152.4 152.8 Whole, fresh 94.0 100.2 101.6 100.8 Breast - bone in 202.8 209.3 202.8 207.6 Leg quarter 123.2 125.6 126.5 123.9 Turkey; whole frozen 104.7 102.0 106.3 106.7 Eggs, Grade A, Large 109.1 130.8 114.8 113.2 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 154.9 158.6 159.1 159.6 All food 150.8 156.3 156.5 156.5 All meat 137.5 144.4 144.5 144.0 Beef & veal 134.8 137.8 137.5 136.6 Pork 140.0 155.4 155.7 155.2 Poultry 149.4 157.8 158.2 157.9 Dairy Products 137.2 148.6 147.8 146.2 Fluid milk & cream 137.3 149.9 148.9 146.1 Manufactured products 137.7 147.9 147.4 147.0 Price Spreads Cents/lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 21.1 26.6 21.7 18.6 Wholesale to retail 126.6 122.0 125.8 127.1 Farmers share (%) 47.0 48.0 48.0 48.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 31.6 39.1 35.2 36.3 Wholesale to retail 102.5 105.0 113.1 113.7 Farmers share (%) 36.0 38.0 36.0 35.0 Poultry and eggs Wholesale to retail Broilers 88.3 92.1 88.8 88.8 Retail to consumer Turkey 30.7 26.6 38.3 40.7 Eggs 20.9 25.4 26.2 26.9 WHOLESALE PRICES Mar-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 Mar-97 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 96.36 101.90 98.98 104.75 Choice 1-3 700-850# 95.60 100.79 98.17 104.25 Select 1-3 700-850# 93.95 95.47 94.55 99.25 Cutter Cow 59.86 53.73 59.73 68.00 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 79.91 84.86 89.84 101.25 Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 83.19 84.85 93.19 102.00 Hide & offal value 8.01 9.56 9.52 9.64 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 167.44 153.58 171.13 182.00 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 67.18 71.33 70.00 67.25 Loins, 14-18 lb. 120.49 112.50 109.50 102.50 Bellies, 12-14 lb. 64.50 72.04 68.42 67.50 Hams, 20-26 lb. 59.08 66.49 64.30 57.00 Trimmings, 72% fresh 44.54 58.95 56.00 56.00 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. down, Choice 176.25 182.10 188.75 189.25 55-65 lb., Choice 176.25 182.10 188.75 189.25 Broilers 12 City Avg. 54.31 61.99 59.53 58.00 Georgia dock 54.07 63.05 61.13 61.00 Northeast Breast, boneless 159.64 169.07 168.39 165.00 Breast, Ribs on 80.39 84.72 87.62 85.00 Legs, whole 50.15 52.27 50.91 50.00 Leg quarters 32.59 33.02 34.43 34.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 65.00 58.76 57.28 57.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 65.07 59.71 57.84 59.00 Drumsticks 26.46 34.87 36.04 38.00 Wings, full cut 33.13 43.15 39.18 39.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 94.91 89.62 87.26 87.00 New York 91.79 86.30 82.03 85.00 /* Estimate END_OF_FILE