LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY May 16, 1997 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ============================================================================== LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. LDP-M-41. ============================================================================== Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #LDP-M, $28/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ============================================================================== Grain Prices Decline; Meat Supplies Expand Corn prices are declining, and will likely approach 50 percent of their plateau of late spring-early summer last year. While spring planting is still underway expectations are that feed grain supplies will rise again in 1997/98, with prices continuing to decline. With declining grain prices and favorable forage prospects, the meat complex will resume expansion in 1998. With its longer production cycle, beef production, particularly processing beef, will be declining over the next couple of years. However, pork production is expected to return to a record setting pace in 1998, while poultry production will likely rise even more rapidly than before. Beef prices are expected to rise later this fall and throughout 1998, but increases will be held down by large supplies of competing meats at steady to declining prices. Export demand is expected to strengthen, adding additional price support. Near Record Corn Crop Likely The outlook for U.S. 1997/98 feed grains is for larger supplies, expanding use, larger stocks, and lower prices. The corn crop is projected at 9.84 billion bushels, up 6 percent from a year ago and second only to the 10.1 billion bushels produced in 1994/95. Rapid planting progress has raised expectations for yields will be 3 bushels above the long run trend of 128 bushels per acre. Total 1997/98 corn supplies are projected up 11 percent because of the larger crop and higher carryin stocks. Total use is expected to rise 7 percent, which is below the supply increase and will allow ending stocks to approach a much more comfortable 1.35 billion bushels. Corn prices are expected to average $2.25 to $2.65 per bushel in 1997/98, down from $2.70 to $2.80 this cropyear. Increased soybean acreage and continued near record yields are expected to lead to a 2.6-billion-bushel soybean crop in 1997/98, up 9 percent from a year earlier. Similarly soybean meal production is expected to rise, with prices ranging from $190 to $225 per ton, down from $262 in 1996/97. Hay Carryover the Lowest in 32 Years Poor production and harvest conditions in 1996 resulted in a 3 percent smaller crop of lower quality. Poor production and a harsh winter in the North Central U.S. sharply pulled down stocks. However, strong hay prices in 1996/97 have encouraged producers plans to plan production increases in 1997. Acreage is expected to rise 1 percent, but again yields will be the uncertain variable. With average yields, production will be up about 1 percent and prices are likely to decline from their very strong pattern over the past year. A wet, cool spring, and very tight hay supplies have caused prices to continue rising through early spring. The farm price of hay averaged $117 a ton in April, up $9 from March and up about $28 from a year earlier. Prices for both alfalfa and other hays continued to rise. Grazing Prospects--Much Improved Grazing and forage conditions look very favorable for this grazing season once the temperatures rise and growth accelerates. A year ago conditions were already looking bleak in much of the Central and Southern Great Plains through the Southwest, and this scenario continued through late summer. Stocker-feeder cattle demand has already increased sharply against the grain- pressured prices of a year earlier. Prices for 500- to 550-pound steers are up over $30 a cwt from a year earlier as demand for grass cattle rises. Prices for 750- to 800-pound feeder steers are up, but only about $20 per cwt as feedlot margin prospects erode with the prospects for large fed cattle marketings over the next 6 months. Cyclical Beef Production Decline Begins Beef production is expected to decline about 1 percent in 1997, and anadditional 2 percent in 1998, largely the result of sharply reduced cowslaughter. Fed cattle marketings will remain relatively large as calf slaughter declines and cattle are bid into feedlots at lighter weights. Reduced numbers of cows in the slaughter mix will result in rising slaughter weights, but steer and heifer weights will be held down as a larger share are marketed as calf feds. Lower grain prices and strengthening fed cattle prices will bid more lighter weight cattle into feedlots for longer feeding periods. These cattle will reach desirable grades at lighter weights than heavy yearlings placed on feed. The strongest shift in this pattern will be delayed until first-half 1998 as the current large supply of cattle now in feedlots are the result of heavy yearlings being placed. Placements will remain large through spring, will be lighter weight yearlings. Feeder Cattle Supplies Begin Decline Supplies of feeder cattle outside feedlots on April 1 were down 5 percent from a year earlier and were the lowest since 1992-94. First-quarter feedlot placements were up 10 percent from a year earlier. The last of the feeder cattle supply that accumulated due to record grain prices in 1996 and lower feedlot placements will largely be placed by late spring. Calf slaughter is already declining and the pace of decline will accelerate as the calf crop declines in 1997 and 1998. A declining cow herd, and fewer heifers likely to calve and enter the herd in first-half 1997 is expected to lead to a smaller calf crop this year. The only real uncertainty is how much smaller. On January 1. the beef cow herd was already down nearly 3 percent, while beef replacement heifers were down 2 percent from a year earlier and down nearly 7 percent from 1995. Drought and poor reproductive conditions in the southwest quadrant of the country, low cattle prices, and one of the harshest winters on record in the Northern Great Plains likely will cause reproductive problems and higher calf death losses to show up in a smaller 1997 calf crop and possibly carry over into 1998. On-Feed Inventories Large and Building Cattle in feedlots with over 1,000 head of capacity in the historic 7 monthly reporting States on April 1 were up 7 percent from a year earlier. Inventories are likely to continue to build against the low year-earlier numbers until later this year. Feedlot placements will fall well below the very large second-half 1996 placements. Combined with large marketings this spring and summer the reduced placements will cause in on-feed inventories to fall below year-earlier levels later this year and throughout 1998. Second-quarter placements are likely to rise 4 to 6 percent from the very low level of a year ago. Second-half placements are expected to fall 5 to 7 percent. Placements are likely to decline nearly 1 percent for all of 1997, and another 2 to 3 percent in 1998. Feedlots margins have been favorable over the past year, but break-even margins are rising as feeder cattle prices rise. Increasing fed cattle marketings over the next 6 months will hold fed cattle prices near the mid- $60's until late this year. Beef Production To Begin Decline in 1998 While fed beef production is expected to remain above a year earlier until late fall, cow slaughter, and thus processing beef supplies, are already declining. Cow slaughter rose nearly 16 percent in 1996, but began to decline in late winter. Cow slaughter this spring and summer is likely to decline 16 to 18 percent from a year earlier and near 20 percent this fall. The cow herd has been culled hard over the past few years and the remaining cow herd will be in strong demand over the next couple of years. For the year, cow slaughter is likely to decline 13 to 15 percent, with slaughter declining another 10 to 12 percent in 1998. Fed cattle marketings this spring are likely to rise about 1 percent above a year earlier, and 2 to 4 percent from the low year-earlier levels in the second half. For the year, fed cattle marketings will rise about 2 percent, before declining about 2 percent in 1998. Although fed cattle marketings are rising, slaughter weights will rise less than seasonally as feedlots remain very current and heifer slaughter remains large. January-May steer slaughter was down 5 percent from a year earlier, while heifer slaughter was up 7 percent. Heifer slaughter will remain large as the number of heifers on feed on April 1 was up 19 percent from a year earlier and up 24 percent from 2 years ago. Steers on feed were up only 1 percent from a year ago, but down 2 percent from 1995. Steer and heifer weights will likely begin to rise seasonally, but averaged 15 to 20 pounds below a year earlier through April. Beef Price Rise To Be Constrained Per capita beef supplies are expected to decline this year and again in 1998 as beef production falls modestly and exports continue to rise. Largest year-to-year declines will occur this fall and in 1998. Per capita supplies will drop about 1 pound for the year, and another 2 pounds in 1998. Sharpest year-to-year changes will be in processing beef supplies and will result in larger imports as prices rise. The price of Choice beef at retail averaged $2.79 per pound in the first quarter, but is expected to rise fairly steadily for at least the next year and a half. Although beef supplies will increase later this spring through mid-fall, supplies of pork will remain tight, resulting in stronge beef demand. Both pork and broiler supplies are expected to rise later this year and fairly sharply in 1998 holding down beef price increases. Retail Choice beef prices are expected to average $2.84 per pound this year and reach near $2.90 a pound by late fall. Prices in 1998,are likely to average in the low $2.90's, near the record 1993 average of $2.93 a pound. The higher price of beef relative to other meats and a 7-percent increase in pork and broiler production will hold down further price gains. Cyclical Cattle Price Rise Well Underway Fed cattle prices are likely to remain in the mid-$60's this spring and summer and well above the low $60's of a year earlier. Prices are expected to rise above $70 in late fall, and remain in the low $70's for much of 1998. Prices are likely to average in the mid-$70's at times next spring and in again in late fall. Stocker-feeder cattle prices have already risen well above a year earlier, but much of the cyclical price gains are already in as feedlot returns later this summer and fall are being pinched by higher replacement cattle prices. Prices for yearling cattle may average near $73 a cwt this year, and rise another $2 to $4 in 1998 depending on fed cattle and grain prices. Prices for cull Utility cows will continue to rise as supplies decline. Prices averaged near $30 per cwt in 1996, but are averaging near $40 this spring and will likely average in the lower $40's in second-half 1997 even as supplies rise seasonally. Prices may average near $38per cwt in 1977 and the low- to mid-$40's in 1998. Beef Imports Up Slightly but Will Increase Later in Year Although well below levels of the early 1990's, U.S. beef imports were somewhat higher in the first 2 months of 1997 relative to 1996 and those levels are expected to continue when the U.S. Commerce Department releases the March trade report on May 21. Large supplies of Canadian beef, and a weakening of the Canadian dollar encouraged a dramatic increase in beef imports from Canada. In the last half of 1996 Canada displaced Australia as the largest source of imported beef and is expected to continue to outpace Australia throughthis year. According to preliminary data from the U.S. Customs Service through May 4, imports from Canada were 82 percent of mports from Australia and New Zealand combined. First-quarter weakness in U.S. prices for 90 CL (percent chemical lean) beef limited imports from Australia and New Zealand, but as U.S. domestic cow beef prices climb during the remaining three quarters, it is likely that increasing quantities of beef will be imported from Oceania. Imports for 1997 are likely to reach 2.3 billion pounds, about 12 percent above 1996, a period when U.S. cow slaughter was large. Imports for 1998 will continue increasing as U.S. cow slaughter declines. The rebuilding of the U.S. cattle herd will encourage producers to retain cows and likely push cow beef prices higher through the year. Large supplies of beef in Canada as its cycle turns will encourage Canadian exports and if demand in Japan remains weak through next year, the United States will provide a very attractive market for Australian and New Zealand beef. Imports for 1998 could reach 2.4 billion pounds. Higher Exports to Mexico and Korea Unlikely To Offset Declines to Japan and Canada U.S. exports were weak during January and February as sales to Japan and Canada fell. Despite double-digit increases in sales to Mexico and Korea, exports remained below 1996. However, if Japan's consumers increase demand for beef in the second half of the year,total U.S. exports could rise. Nonetheless, weakness in the first half will limit exports to 1.9 billion pounds for the year, about 1 percent above 1996. Although high U.S. cattle prices could temper U.S. sales in 1998, a return to more stable consumption patterns by consumers in Japan and Mexico could significantly boost U.S. exports in 1998. Consumer nervousness in Japan has limited demand for imported products and U.S. beef has been no exception. Caught between large Japanese stocks and a weakening yen, U.S. beef exports to Japan declined 10 percent in the first 2 months. Although stocks have declined, continued fears of e-coli during the summer are expected to limit consumer demand through the middle part of the year. Although exports could improve in the latter part of the year, the improvement will be primarily relative to the collapse of demand in second-half 1996. Japan's imports will likely be slightly below last year for 1997 as a whole but could improve next year if consumers concerns over food safety ease. U.S. exports are expected to increase in the second half of this year but opportunities to expand sales over the next 2 years could hinge on the availability and price of Choice-grade cattle. Australia increased its market share in Japan during the first 2 months of 1997 and could have a price advantage if U.S. prices rise to reflect declining slaughter toward the end of the year. Large inventories and high production in Canada have limited opportunities to market U.S. beef there. Canada's beef cycle peaked in 1996 and as Canada enters its liquidation phase, imports from the U.S. likely will be limited by large domestic supplies. Canadian inventories stood at 12.8 million head on January, 1997. Inventories in western Canada declined 4 percent while eastern Canadian inventories were only down 2 percent. As the liquidation continues, slaughter through the beginning of May is about 10 percent above 1996. It is probable that slaughter rates will fall off in the second half of the year but the availability of reasonably priced beef in Canada will continue to limit U.S. sales to higher-grade products. Amid the gloom of declining sales to two major U.S.export markets, sales to Mexico and Korea have provided considerable support for overall U.S. exports. Continued economic growth, and moderate U.S. prices in the first quarter stimulated sales to Mexico. Exports in the first 2 months were up 80 percent and will remain strong for the most of the year. Mexican cattle herds remain well below pre-drought levels and opportunities for domestic production to supply growing needs remain limited in the short term. However, Mexican consumers remain cost conscious. The unit value of U.S. exports would point toward continued imports of lower-value cuts. As U.S. prices climb in the second half, exports could slow but exports for the year could remain above1996. An uncertainty in the Mexican market over the next several years is the recent request by the Mexican cattle federation for an anti-dumping investigation against U.S. beef. In late April, the Mexican Association of Cattle Feeders announced that it submitted a request for the investigation to the Mexican Secretariat ofCommerce and Industry (SECOFI). SECOFI is expected to issue a determination on proceeding with the investigation by the end of May. Under Mexican law, if SECOFI proceeds, it will first determine the degree to which dumping has occurred and can, if it chooses, apply a provision duty while determining if actual injury occurred. Based on previous anti-dumping investigations, it could be a year between the beginning of an investigation and announcement of any duties. U.S. exports to Korea also increased at double-digit rates as demand recovered from its low 1996 levels. Economic sluggishness and food safety concerns dramatically reduced demand that year, but consumption is expected to resume its growth this year. Imports should benefit from increased consumption due to mandated increases in the beef import quota and the Simultaneous-Buy-Share (SBS) portion of the quota. However, a number of factors may constrain trade with Korea. First, any negative news concerning food safety could reduce consumer demand. Second, the Korean won fell 5 percent vis-a-vis the dollar between January and April and has averaged 9 percent below its 1996 level. If the won continues weakening, prices for U.S. beef will become more expensive relative to both domestic product and potentially to Australian product. Cattle Trade Down, Could Increase in 1998 U.S. cattle imports from Canada have fallen since the eginning of the year but were partially offset by increased imports of feeder cattle from Mexico. Imports of all classes of Canadian cattle have fallen as Canadian slaughter plants and feedlots successfully bid product out of export channels. Through March 30,USDA's APHIS reports feeder cattle imports were down almost 48 percent while slaughter cattle imports were 21 percent lower. It is likely that imports will remain low through most of the year but will likely increase at a faster than seasonal rate in the last quarter as feeder cattle prices begin climbing. Imports of cattle from Mexico have increased over last year's highly depressed levels. APHIS reports indicated that through May 10, imports of Mexican feeder cattle were 17 percent above 1996. Mexican inventories remain low due to the economic upheaval and drought, but U.S. imports from Mexico should continue climbing as feeder prices increase. High cow slaughter over the past year in both the U.S. and Canada and already low inventories in Mexico will result in low feeder cattle numbers in the fall and into 1998. This will lead to a substantial increase in feeder cattle prices as feedlots attempt to take advantage of lower grain prices by bidding up feeder cattle prices. The increased buying activity and low U.S. calf numbers will draw increased numbers of feeder cattle into the U.S. in the last half of 1997 and through 1998. Imports will reach slightly more than 1.8 million head in 1997, low realtive to last year but they are expected to climb to 2 million head in 1998. Pork Production To Rise Sharply Pork production is expected to rise about 7 percent in 1998. Favorable returns over variable expenses and expectations of continuing relatively high hog prices and lower feed costs are fueling the increase. In years past, such an optimistic scenario would likely have led to a larger increase in production. However, the changing structure of the industry to fewer and larger operations and increased public attention on waste management ssues may be tempering producers' expansion plans. Nevertheless, the June-November pig crop is projected to be up about 6 percent from last year. Projected farrowings are up about 4 percent and pigs per litter are expected to continue to rise. Most the first-half 1998 slaughter will come from the fall pig crop. Second-half 1998 slaughter will come from the December 1997-May 1998 pig crop, which is projected to be about 8 percent over the same period a year earlier. Farrowings are expected to be up about 7 percent and pigs per litter up about 1 percent. Despite the forecasted largest production since 1992, hog prices in 1998 are expected to average in the mid-$50's per cwt, slightly lower than this year's projected price. The price pressure of the large production increase will be largely offset by higher exports, declining beef supplies, and continued rising personal income. Retail pork prices in 1998 are expected to be about unchanged from this year as farm-to-retail spreads will likely remain wide. In addition, the gap between the composite retail pork price and the all-fresh beef price is expected to widen. Thus, any significant rise in beef prices would benefit pork as an alternative to beef. Abundant poultry supplies could pressure pork prices downward. Currently, hog prices are about $60 per cwt as slaughter is running below earlier expectations based on the March 1 market hog inventory and the September-November 1996 pig crop. In addition, increased foreign demand due to Taiwan's absence in the world pork market is likely helping boost prices. Hog prices in the third quarter are expected to average in the low $60's per cwt. Pork Exports and Imports To Increase Both exports and imports of pork are projected to increase in 1998. Exports could exceed 1.5 billion pounds, 17 percent more than the current 1997 forecast of 1.36 billion pounds. Export forecasts are based largely on assumptions of growing foreign incomes and populations, stable-to-declining foreign production, and continued WTO mandated import market liberalization. Increased U.S. pork supplies and the absence of Taiwan in the world market also support expectations for higher 1998 exports. U.S. pork imports could rise slightly in 1998, largely on the basis of good availability of rib cuts from Denmark, which are a byproduct of forecast increases in flows of Danish single-ribbed bellies to Japan. Despite a sharp increase in production in 1998, the U.S. is expected to a relatively attractive market for pork. U.S. imports of Canadian hogs next year are expected to exceed 3.3 million head, up 3 percent from 1997, and almost 20 percent from 2 years ago. The relative scarcity of domestic hogs, increased packing capacity in some Corn Belt States, favorable exchange rates, and zero countervailing import duties will pull Canadian hogs into the U.S. in record numbers for the foreseeable future. Exports of U.S. hogs in 1998 are expected to lag behind 1997 numbers. Total 1998 exports of live hogs are expected to be about 20,000 head, down more than 25 percent from last year, and down almost 65 percent from 2 years ago. Mexico, which accounted for over 70 percent of total U.S. hog exports in 1996, is expected to import fewer U.S. hogs in 1998. Higher relative hog prices in the U.S. will likely bid the Mexicans out of the market in the first and fourth quarters of the year, the period when Mexican import demand is the greatest. Broiler Prices Lower During early May the 12-city wholesale price for whole birds has been about 5 percent lower than last year. Prices had been above a year ago continually since July 1995. Prices for breast and leg quarters have also been lower, 10-20 percent below last year during early May. Increases in production during April and May and relatively slow growth in exports have put pressure on market prices. Wing prices are stronger than a year ago as movement of product to China and Hong Kong appears to be stronger than it was last year. Production is expected to increase about 5 percent from last year in the second quarter of 1997. Placements of birds for growout have been 3-4 percent above a year ago in recent months and slaughter weights have been about 1 percent above a year ago. Feed costs considerably below a year ago will keep broiler returns positive, even with lower prices. Broiler production in 1998 is expected to increase more strongly than it has since 1994, by 6-7 percent. Higher feed grain production this year is expected to lower 1998 feed costs relative to both 1997 and 1996. Lower beef supplies should provide an opportunity for increased domestic sales of chicken at prices little changed from 1997. Increases in the hatchery supply flock will be necessary to support this growth. The pullet chick hatch for the broiler hatchery supply flock was 7 percent above last year in the first quarter of 1997 after 1-percent annual increases in both 1995 and 1996. Turkey Prices Higher Wholesale hen turkey prices have been above a year ago during early May after remaining below a year ago since July 1996. High stocks had kept pressure on market prices early in the year, but stocks of whole birds have dropped below a year ago in recent months. Production has been about the same as last year in the second quarter and exports have been quite strong. Net returns to turkey producers continue negative even with higher prices and considerably lower feed costs than a year ago. Stronger production increases are expected in 1998 as positive net returns during the fourth quarter of 1997 and lower feed costs encourage producers to raise more birds. Egg Production Increasing Table egg production is expected to increase about 2 percent during the second quarter. A larger laying flock is expected to be maintained throughout 1997. Strong net returns to egg producers over the last year have encouraged increased production. April was the first month since August 1996 that net returns to egg producers were below 10 cents per dozen. Lower egg rices may bring net returns to near break-even for lay. Placements for the hatchery supply flock were down considerably in March, indicating production expansion plans could be more conservative in the future. However, lower feed costs are expected to keep egg production profitable for 1997 and another 2-3 percent increase in production is expected for 1998. Higher Poultry Exports Expected in 1997 and 1998 All of the main categories of U.S. poultry exports (broilers, other chicken, turkeys, eggs and egg products) are expected to increase in 1997 and again in 1998, although the rate of expansion is likely to be lower than in the last several years. Broiler exports are forecast to reach 4.8 billion pounds, about 9 percent higher than in 1996. Most of the growth is expected to come from higher shipments to Russia and some of the countries of the former Soviet Union. Mexico is also expected to be a growing market for broiler products. In 1998, broiler exports are forecast at 5.0 billion pounds as shipments to Russia, our largest market, begin to level off. Turkey exports in 1997 are expected to be around 477 million pounds, about 9 percent above 1996. Expanding shipments of turkey products to Mexico and Canada and a rapidly growing market in Hong Kong are expected to offset anticipated lower exports to Russia and Korea. Growth in exports is forecast to slow in 1998, with a 2-percent expansion to 490 million pounds, due primarily to less rapid growth in sales to Mexico. Other chicken shipments are expected to hit almost 370 million pounds in 1997, as exports to Hong Kong have increased tremendously since the middle of 1996. Exports to Mexico and Japan are also expected to increase strongly. Exports in 1998 are forecast to total 383 million pounds, up only 4 percent as year-over-year growth in shipments to Hong Kong slows. Shipments of eggs and egg products are expected toreach 263 million dozen (shell egg equivalents) in 1997, 4 percent higher than in 1996. Larger exports to Japan and Canada (egg products) and the EU (shell eggs and egg products) are expected to offset smaller shipments of shell eggs to Hong Kong. Exports are forecast to grow only 1 percent in 1998. Recent Cheese Price Declines Remain Unexplained The recent drops in cheese prices appear to be in conflict with the latest available data. In March, just before the onset of the price declines, milk production was about 1 percent above a year earlier. But, commercial use rose about 4 percent and stocks at the end of March were somewhat below a year earlier. Specifically for cheese, modest increases in March production were easily absorbed by commercial use, while April 1 stocks were very close to a year earlier. Unless something changed dramatically at the end of March or start of April, the price declines appear out of line with basic market conditions and may soon be reversed. The April increase in milk production was slightly smaller than in March. The flush season was reported to be strong in the South, resulting in larger shipments of milk to northern manufacturing facilities. Along with seasonal increases in local milk output, this inflow made more milk available to cheesemakers. Additionally, western cheese output continues to rise sharply, even though butter-powder production has had a nominal advantage. Western cheesemakers have aggressively competed with Midwestern producers for prime cheese customers-- hoping that the long-run gain will outweigh some short-run losses. This combination of temporarily more milk for cheese making and less active pursuit of Midwestern cheese supplies may have led traders to underestimate current market tightness. Also, traders may be paying more attention to conditions for American varieties than to the stronger conditions for other types. Spring and summer milk supplies should post substantial increases from the very weak levels of a year earlier, although increases will be constrained by feed conditions. The late spring in many northern areas will add to the problems of the large number of dairy farmers trying to stretch forage stocks until new-crop supplies are available. Also, the spring milk-feed price ratio is expected to be below 1.5, unfavorable for much increase in concentrate feeding. However, the relatively high returns of the last 2 years may start to buttress milk cow numbers by summer. Expected supplies should be absorbed without difficulty. Continued economic expansion is projected to provide a fairly broad demand base for dairy products during the rest of 1997. With year-to-year increases in retail dairy prices expected to disappear by late in the year, increases in commercial use are projected to keep pace with production growth. Principal Contributors: Leland Southard (Coordinator) , Milton Madison (Poultry) , Dave Harvey (Poultry Trade),Ron Gustafson (Cattle), Mildred Haley (Pork Trade), Jim Miller (Dairy), Laverne Williams (Statistics). LIVESTOCK PRICES May-96 Mar-97 Apr-97 May-97 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 59.78 67.44 67.66 68.00 Nebraska Direct 59.72 68.21 68.32 68.20 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 33.63 37.44 38.54 39.35 Utility boning 29.03 35.79 37.72 38.60 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 58.44 87.29 87.85 88.00 600-650 lb. 58.19 77.64 81.57 83.75 750-800 lb. 56.03 69.14 72.52 76.00 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 48.63 76.81 77.74 82.75 700-750 lb. 52.50 65.60 68.73 74.00 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 57.91 48.44 54.32 59.25 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 58.22 48.32 54.07 59.00 Sows 6 Markets 43.84 46.56 46.23 51.50 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) 31.66 NA Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 86.17 97.50 98.00 85.50 Ewes, Good 29.38 54.06 34.60 47.50 Feeder lambs, Choice 100.75 122.75 115.65 111.50 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES May-96 Mar-97 Apr-97 May-97 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 4.86 2.90 2.87 2.75 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 6.92 4.53 4.74 4.55 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 244.27 280.53 288.57 310.00 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 100.00 116.00 123.00 102.40 Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 95.50 108.00 117.00 97.10 /* Estimates WHOLESALE PRICES May-96 Mar-97 Apr-97 May-97 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 96.90 104.87 104.17 106.25 Choice 1-3 700-850# 96.87 104.33 103.56 106.20 Select 1-3 700-850# 91.45 99.22 98.47 99.65 Cutter Cow 58.41 68.96 68.33 68.25 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 80.48 102.98 100.20 92.75 Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 81.70 101.31 96.20 89.25 Hide & offal value 8.47 9.64 9.28 8.80 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 162.77 181.01 168.20 173.00 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 76.68 68.85 72.64 78.25 Loins, 14-18 lb. 131.61 106.58 117.16 132.00 Bellies, 12-14 lb. 79.50 69.05 80.54 81.00 Hams, 20-26 lb. 64.97 57.26 59.62 63.00 Trimmings, 72% fresh 61.98 57.66 59.31 65.75 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. down, Choice 185.67 189.75 192.78 192.00 55-65 lb., Choice 185.67 189.75 189.78 187.00 Broilers 12 City Avg. 61.71 58.41 59.77 58.00 Georgia dock 58.82 60.60 60.35 60.00 Northeast Breast, boneless 197.53 165.82 172.55 165.00 Breast, Ribs on 105.14 85.12 90.74 83.00 Legs, whole 53.67 50.49 48.78 48.00 Leg quarters 38.10 33.15 31.95 30.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 67.99 58.33 62.25 66.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 65.36 59.26 62.93 66.00 Drumsticks 25.06 38.71 34.18 32.00 Wings, full cut 35.07 39.09 37.98 36.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 80.15 87.27 79.15 76.00 New York 76.50 86.31 75.55 74.00 /* Estimate PRODUCTION INDICATORS Apr-96 Feb-97 Mar-97 Apr-97 Cattle: On feed - 7 States, 1,000+ Hd 8,286 8,813 8,769 8,904 Net placements 1,085 1,510 1,632 NA Marketings 1,613 1,554 1,497 NA Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 561,736 575,711 591,898 583,986 Chicks hatched (000)/2 668,378 631,259 716,374 695,000 Hatching egg layers/1 50,440 51,287 51,453 52,112 Pullets placed (000) 6,746 5,913 6,439 NA Hvy-type hen slaughter 5,535 4,875 4,639 4,000 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 39,218 35,802 35,040 37,232 Poults placed (000) 29,725 27,152 27,607 28,180 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.)/2 440 415 465 450 Table egg layers, (000)/1 244,850 248,515 249,321 248,033 Table eggs/100 layers/1 73.2 70.9 72.0 72.6 Chicks hatched (000) 35,628 35,318 37,648 37,000 Lt.-type hen slaughter 8,601 7,577 9,404 11,000 ESTIMATED RETURNS May-96 Mar-97 Apr-97 May-97 /* Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 59.95 61.44 61.02 62.43 Selling price 59.78 67.44 67.66 68.00 Net margin -0.17 6.00 6.64 5.57 N. Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price /3 43.14 46.90 46.58 46.87 Selling price 58.22 48.32 54.07 59.00 Net margin 15.08 1.42 7.49 12.13 Broiler Wholesale cost 55.35 52.09 52.93 54.25 Wholesale price 61.71 58.41 59.77 58.00 Net margin 6.36 6.32 6.84 3.75 Turkey Wholesale cost 71.09 67.00 67.01 68.40 Wholesale price 66.00 58.25 62.22 66.00 Net margin -5.09 -8.75 -4.79 -2.40 Egg Wholesale cost 82.51 72.22 74.30 74.38 Wholesale price 80.15 87.27 79.15 76.00 Net margin -2.36 15.05 4.85 1.62 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* estimate MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - May-96 May-97 Mar-97 Apr-97 May-97 /* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 10,759 10,412 1,968 2,106 2,194 Veal 148 141 28 28 27 Pork 7,287 6,977 1,422 1,455 1,330 Lamb 120 106 26 21 18 Total red meat 18,314 17,636 3,444 3,610 3,569 Broilers 11,111 11,201 2,140 2,350 2,275 Other chicken 215 209 41 44 42 Turkeys 2,192 2,120 402 435 450 Total poultry 13,518 13,530 2,582 2,829 2,767 Total meat & poultry 31,832 31,166 6,026 6,439 6,336 Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 15,414 15,176 2,862 3,079 3,190 Steers 7,723 7,335 1,369 1,526 1,627 Heifers 4,487 4,781 910 953 973 Beef Cows 1,615 1,487 279 289 287 Dairy Cows 1,301 1,290 248 249 239 Bulls and stags 287 283 56 62 64 Calves 701 661 131 131 127 Sheep 1,857 1,660 398 329 301 Hogs 39,320 37,134 7,584 7,745 7,075 Barrows & gilts 37,450 35,645 7,293 7,430 6,775 Sows 1,564 1,227 241 260 245 Broilers 3,169,767 3,155,709 605,540 660,000 640,000 Turkeys 115,497 112,509 21,447 23,500 24,000 May-96 Feb-97 Mar-97 Apr-97 May-97 /* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 699 694 694 691 694 Calves 219 214 215 219 223 Sheep 66 66 66 64 64 Hogs 186 189 188 188 188 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 335.6 290.3 261.7 292.9 Pork 385.5 344.5 386.6 409.3 Bellies 57.2 38.0 44.3 54.8 Hams 61.6 49.8 55.7 60.7 Total chicken 706.2 676.2 697.5 709.3 Turkey 514.5 401.0 446.4 495.9 Frozen eggs 11.5 11.0 11.5 8.5 /* Estimates RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Mar-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 Mar-97 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 275.8 281.7 278.6 276.1 Beef - All Fresh 256.2 256.1 254.4 252.8 Ground Beef 137.5 140.9 139.8 135.6 Rib roast 505.0 529.6 512.1 513.5 T-bone steak 566.1 598.1 587.9 564.0 Pork 209.7 232.7 231.3 228.9 Bacon 220.2 266.4 265.1 265.7 Chops 331.7 346.5 348.5 342.2 Picnic 119.3 133.9 130.6 125.1 Chicken - Composite 144.6 152.4 152.8 149.3 Whole, fresh 93.3 101.6 100.8 100.9 Breast - bone in 191.4 202.8 207.6 199.4 Leg quarter 121.7 126.5 123.9 123.1 Turkey; whole frozen 106.9 106.3 106.7 104.7 Eggs, Grade A, Large 113.8 114.8 113.2 105.6 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 155.7 159.1 159.6 160.0 All food 151.6 156.5 156.5 156.6 All meat 137.6 144.5 144.0 143.1 Beef & veal 134.4 137.5 136.6 135.8 Pork 140.7 155.7 155.2 153.6 Poultry 148.0 158.2 157.9 156.3 Dairy Products 136.7 147.8 146.2 146.1 Fluid milk & cream 137.4 148.9 146.1 145.8 Manufactured products 136.7 147.4 147.0 147.0 Price Spreads Cents/lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 18.4 21.7 18.6 20.5 Wholesale to retail 127.4 125.8 127.1 115.6 Farmers share (%) 47.0 48.0 48.0 51.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 30.6 35.2 36.3 39.4 Wholesale to retail 101.4 113.1 113.7 113.2 Farmers share (%) 37.0 36.0 35.0 33.0 Poultry and eggs Wholesale to retail Broilers 85.4 88.8 88.8 87.0 Retail to consumer Turkey 33.6 38.3 40.7 37.5 Eggs 19.9 26.2 26.9 19.3 U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Jan-97 Feb-97 Jan - Jan - Feb-96 Feb-97 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 49,503 23,136 75,928 72,639 New Zealand 43,849 37,876 91,985 81,724 Canada 57,569 58,149 90,063 115,719 Brazil 8,252 7,132 10,264 15,385 Argentina 10,146 9,886 26,185 20,032 Central America 8,578 8,498 25,114 17,076 Other 8,183 7,063 7,397 15,246 Total 186,081 151,740 326,936 337,821 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 74,217 76,807 175,095 151,024 Canada 20,586 21,530 47,597 42,115 Mexico 17,533 19,654 20,493 37,187 Korea, Rep. 29,088 21,304 33,713 50,392 Caribbean 880 1,211 1,798 2,091 Other 13,268 12,763 24,560 26,032 Total 155,572 153,269 303,255 308,841 Cattle Imports Mexico 54,192 65,802 100,446 119,994 Canada 104,863 100,298 296,746 205,161 Over 700 lbs. 95,472 87,697 259,428 183,169 500-700 lbs. 6,290 9,240 29,261 15,530 Total 159,056 166,100 397,225 325,156 Cattle Exports Mexico 19,008 19,162 7,976 38,170 Canada 3,612 2,798 5,793 6,410 Total 22,687 22,296 26,054 44,983 Lamb Imports Australia 2,656 2,339 4,324 4,994 New Zealand 2,393 2,366 2,982 4,759 Total 5,050 4,738 7,469 9,788 Mutton Imports 3,073 2,023 3,150 5,097 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Customs Service YTD imports under WTO 5/12/96 5/11/97 % Chg Canada 163,470 214,624 3129.3% TRQ Countries 328,229 315,815 -378.2% Australia 129,909 127,583 -179.0% New Zealand 155,543 146,340 -591.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Jan-97 Feb-97 Jan - Jan - Feb-96 Feb-97 Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lb. Canada 39,003 32,160 64,762 71,163 Denmark 9,969 14,062 18,466 24,031 Poland 487 1,525 1,324 2,012 Hungary 741 634 663 1,375 Netherlands 970 598 1,572 1,568 Other 2,926 3,165 4,350 6,091 Total 54,097 52,144 91,137 106,241 Pork Exports Japan 25,034 25,396 63,487 50,430 Canada 9,108 8,174 15,892 17,282 Mexico 4,557 4,685 11,489 9,241 Caribbean 749 824 1,467 1,574 Other 24,542 19,999 50,685 44,540 Total 63,989 59,077 143,019 123,067 Hog Imports Head Canada 266,610 244,019 418,732 510,629 Under 110 lb 71,748 74,475 120,082 146,223 Total 266,693 244,019 418,883 510,712 Hog Exports Total 4,714 2,259 24,399 6,973 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 12,073 11,817 34,066 23,890 Mexico 17,322 19,368 35,048 36,690 Hong Kong 54,422 74,814 104,655 129,236 Singapore 2,706 3,986 8,338 6,692 Canada 6,192 7,824 11,641 14,016 Former USSR 184,726 160,745 392,082 345,470 Total 349,620 374,153 734,787 723,773 Turkey Exports Mexico 12,586 14,847 23,374 27,433 S. Korea 1,599 1,038 3,364 2,638 Hong Kong 5,233 12,039 1,541 17,272 Total 31,388 47,803 55,401 79,191 Shell thousand dz. Egg Exports 6,963 10,234 19,614 17,198 MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS Apr-96 Feb-97 Mar-97 Apr-97 Milk production Production - 21 States, Mil. lb 11,265 10,309 11,611 11,358 Milk cow number - 21 States, Thou 7,818 7,743 7,736 7,731 Milk per cow - 21 States, Lb 1,441 1,331 1,501 1,469 Production - U.S., Mil. lb 13,237 12,094 13,616 13,284 Milk prices: Dol./cwt All milk 13.90 13.50 13.50 13.50 Milk for fluid use 13.90 13.50 13.60 13.50 Manuf. grade milk 12.90 12.40 12.40 12.00 Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 13.09 12.46 12.49 11.44 Wholesale prices: cents/lb Grade A butter 69.0 98.4 106.3 95.6 Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 145.1 132.3 133.9 125.6 Barrels 139.8 127.5 126.5 121.3 Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 110.3 114.9 115.8 114.4 International prices: $/metric ton Butter 2,048 1,738 1,763 1,630 Nonfat dry milk 2,006 1,888 1,849 1,749 Beginning stocks: Mil. lb Commercial butter 47.4 21.0 23.9 24.6 Commercial American cheese 356.2 381.4 377.9 387.7 Other cheese 142.0 117.3 115.4 115.0 Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 98.4 74.8 71.6 80.3 All commercial (mf. basis) 5,570 4,975 4,970 5,087 All commercial (ss. basis) 6,269 5,929 5,815 6,023 All Government (mf. basis) 34 8 13 16 All Government (ss. basis) 115 8 8 12 USDA net removals: Mil. lb Butter 0.8 0.9 1.9 Cheese 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.4 Nonfat dry milk 8.2 15.0 17.9 15.3 All products (mf basis 2/) 11.6 37.3 32.9 50.1 All products (ss basis 2/) 106.6 191.8 219.6 184.7 Mar-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 Mar-97 Dairy product output: Mil. lb Butter 111.9 124.0 108.3 102.3 American cheese 284.7 278.9 266.8 284.1 Other-than-American cheese 340.7 317.2 307.8 352.9 Frozen products 1/, Mil. gal. 104.5 85.2 90.3 107.8 All products (mf basis 2/) 8295.6 8098.9 7706.4 8291.8 Nonfat dry milk 105.4 97.3 92.0 11.2 Commercial disappearance: Mil. l Butter 94.7 117.1 104.7 NA American cheese 283.7 277.6 270.9 NA Other-than-American cheese 347.4 321.8 327.4 NA Nonfat dry milk 79.5 83.7 80.4 NA All products (mf. basis) 13061.0 12896.0 12165.0 NA Imports (mf basis 2/) 177.7 172.4 170.8 NA Annual Forecasts 1995 1996 1997 1998 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 6,743 6,911 7,100 7,252 CPI-U, Annual % Change 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Unemployment rate, % 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.4 3-Month T Bill,% 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.0 10-Year Bond,% 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 Production, million lb. Beef 25,115 25,419 25,187 24,800 Pork 17,811 17,085 17,094 18,325 Broilers 25,021 26,336 27,426 29,200 Turkeys 5,129 5,466 5,510 5,750 Total Red Meat & Poultry 74,070 75,302 76,140 78,938 Eggs, mil doz. 5,269 5,393 5,519 5,650 Milk 155,425 154,268 155,212 157,500 Commercial use (mf basis) 154,857 155,055 156,751 158,400 Net removals (mf basis) 2,102 92 399 900 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 67.4 67.7 66.6 64.8 Pork 52.4 49.1 47.2 49.9 Broilers 68.8 70.8 72.3 76.7 Turkeys 17.9 18.4 18.4 19.3 Total Red Meat & Poultry 210.3 209.2 207.3 213.0 Eggs, number 235.7 237.1 240.4 244.2 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 66.24 65.2 66-70 71-76 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt. 68.03 61.1 70-75 74-79 Brk Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 35.58 30.3 37-40 41-44 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cwt 42.35 53.4 55-59 53-57 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 56.38 61.2 59-63 59-63 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 66.35 66.5 64-69 62-66 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 72.85 88.2 79-85 72-78 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 12.74 14.74 13.1-13.9 12.9-13.8 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 11.83 13.39 12.0-12.8 11.8-12.7 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 1,821 1,877 1,910 2,140 Beef & veal imports 2,104 2,073 2,330 2,400 Pork exports 770 951 1,355 1,580 Pork imports 664 618 595 605 Broiler exports 3,895 4,420 4,835 5,025 Turkey exports 348 438 479 485 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, February 1997 Quarterly 1996/98 Forecasts QI'96 QII'96 QIII'96 QIV'96 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,814 6,885 6,930 7,009 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.8 3.8 2.3 3.2 Unemployment rate, % 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.3 3-Month T Bill,% 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 10-Year Bond,% 5.9 6.7 6.8 6.3 Production, million lb. Beef 6,303 6,642 6,390 6,084 Pork 4,389 4,104 4,143 4,449 Broilers 6,610 6,571 6,628 6,527 Turkeys 1,270 1,378 1,415 1,403 Total Meat 18,847 18,931 18,807 18,717 Eggs, mil doz. 1,330 1,320 1,352 1,392 Milk (mf basis) 39,053 39,621 37,947 37,966 Commercial use 37,687 39,831 38,800 38,819 Net removals 19 29 25 25 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 17.0 17.5 17.0 16.2 Pork 12.6 11.6 12.0 12.9 Broilers 17.6 18.0 18.1 17.1 Turkeys 3.7 3.9 4.6 6.2 Total Meat 51.8 51.9 52.5 53.0 Eggs, number 58.8 58.0 59.1 61.2 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 63.06 60.26 67.13 70.39 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 58.11 56.87 63.20 66.15 Brk Cows,S. Falls 32.52 30.37 31.74 26.68 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 46.23 54.82 57.75 54.75 Broiler,12 City 56.22 61.07 64.22 63.46 Turkeys, Eastern 64.80 65.40 64.90 70.90 Eggs, New York 89.60 80.50 85.90 96.70 Milk, all at plant 13.83 14.27 15.80 15.07 Milk, M-W 12.67 13.59 14.93 12.36 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 452 544 436 445 Beef/veal imports 508 526 555 484 Pork exports 221 313 180 237 Pork imports 144 155 154 165 Broiler exports 1,075 1,057 1,121 1,167 Turkey exports 96 93 124 125 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, February 1997 QI'97 QII'97 QIII'97 QIV'97 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 7,048 7,089 7,125 7,167 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 Unemployment rate, % 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.4 3-Month T Bill,% 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 10-Year Bond,% 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.3 Production, million lb. Beef 6,112 6,500 6,500 6,075 Pork 4,194 4,075 4,275 4,550 Broilers 6,576 6,900 7,000 6,950 Turkeys 1,235 1,400 1,425 1,450 Total Meat 18,373 19,099 19,413 19,255 Eggs, mil doz. 1,344 1,350 1,400 1,425 Milk (mf basis) 38,812 40,300 38,100 38,000 Commercial use 38,551 39,800 39,200 39,200 Net removals 99 200 100 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.3 17.2 17.1 16.0 Pork 12.0 11.4 11.6 12.2 Broilers 17.5 18.6 18.5 17.7 Turkeys 3.5 4.0 4.6 6.3 Total Meat 50.0 51.9 52.6 52.8 Eggs, number 58.9 58.6 61.0 61.9 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 66.4 65-69 64-70 68-74 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 69.4 69-75 71-77 73-79 Brk Cows,S. Falls 32.0 38-40 40-44 39-43 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 51.1 55-59 59-63 56-60 Broiler,12 City 60.0 58-62 60-66 58-62 Turkeys, Eastern 58.9 62-66 65-71 72-78 Eggs, New York 84.9 74-80 79-85 82-88 Milk, all at plant 15.1 12.4-13.1 12.5-13.5 14.3-15.3 Milk, M-W 12.4 10.8-11.5 12.0-13.0 13.1-14.1 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 450.0 455 510 495 Beef/veal imports 530.0 580 640 580 Pork exports 190.0 290 400 475 Pork imports 160.0 140 135 160 Broiler exports 1085.0 1,125 1,275 1,350 Turkey exports 112.0 113 119 135 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, February 1997 QI'98 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 7,204 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.2 Unemployment rate, % 5.3 3-Month T Bill,% 5.0 10-Year Bond,% 6.3 Production, million lb. Beef 6,025 Pork 4,350 Broilers 7,100 Turkeys 1,325 Total Meat 19,032 Eggs, mil doz. 1,375 Milk (mf basis) 39,100 Commercial use 38,400 Net removals 300 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.1 Pork 12.0 Broilers 19.1 Turkeys 4.2 Total Meat 52.0 Eggs, number 59.7 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 71-73 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 74-77 Brk Cows,S. Falls 41-43 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 53-55 Broiler,12 City 58-60 Turkeys, Eastern 59-61 Eggs, New York 74-77 Milk, all at plant 13.6-14.1 Milk, M-W 12.0-12.5 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 475 Beef/veal imports 620 Pork exports 315 Pork imports 150 Broiler exports 1,100 Turkey exports 110 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, February 1997 Feeder cattle supply outside feedlots -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Change from Item 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Prev. Yr. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 head Percent On farms Jan 1: Calves < 500 lbs 18117 17884 18369 18488 17688 -4.3 Steers over 500 l 16940 17042 17463 17732 17315 -2.4 Heifers over 500 8550 9068 9275 9949 10219 2.7 Total 43607 43994 45107 46169 45222 -2.1 On feed Jan 1 1/: 12698.1 12931.55 12364.19 12863 13102 1.9 Feeder cattle outsid feedlots on Jan 1 30908.9 31062.45 32742.81 33306 32120 -3.6 Slaughter Jan-Mar Calves 321.2 311.9 350.5 431.8 403.1 -6.6 Steers & heife 6221 6495 6662 7085 7037 -0.7 Total 6542.2 6806.9 7012.5 7516.8 7440.1 -1.0 On feed Apr 1 1/: 12206.3 12441.44 12467.33 12495 12924 3.4 Feeder cattle outsid feedlots on April 24858.5 24745.66 25627.17 26157.2 24857.9 -5.0 On farms July 1: Calves < 500 lbs 30300 31300 32000 31700 -0.9 Steers over 500 l 14900 15200 15400 15100 -1.9 Heifers over 500 7300 7500 8000 8100 1.3 Total 52500 54000 55400 54900 -0.9 On feed July 1 1/11038.58 10577.61 11141.72 11200 0.5 Feeder cattle outsid feedlots on July 41461.42 43422.39 44258.28 43700 -1.3 Slaughter Jul-Sep Calves 288.8 312.4 360.9 468.9 29.9 Steers & heife 7017 7269 7657 7169 -6.4 Total 7305.8 7581.4 8017.9 7637.9 -4.7 On feed Oct 1 1/:11239.03 10728.95 10962.39 10882 -0.7 Feeder cattle outsid feedlots on Oct 133955.17 35689.65 36419.71 36380.1 -0.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimated U.S. steers and heifers. 2/ Not including heifers for cow replacement. Commercial calf slaughter and production ----------------------------------------------- Year Dressed Slaughter weight Productio ----------------------------------------------- 1,000 Million head Pounds pounds 1994 I 312 228 71 II 288 236 68 III 312 218 68 IV 357 213 76 Year 1269 223 283 1995 I 350 223 78 II 333 222 74 III 361 211 76 IV 386 207 80 Year 1430 215 308 1996 I 432 208 90 II 405 215 87 III 470 202 95 IV 463 205 95 Year 1770 207 367 1997 I 404 213 86 ----------------------------------------------- Calf slaughter by class under Federal inspection ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bob veal Fed Other Year 150 lb & 150 to 400 lb over Total below Formula Nonformula 400 lb ----------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 head 1990 657 851 99 135 1743 1991 466 790 66 86 1408 1992 423 760 62 82 1328 1993 324 725 45 66 1159 1994 416 730 37 54 1237 1995 564 740 35 54 1393 1996 867 747 32 71 1718 I 203 194 9 13 420 II 185 188 8 16 397 III 252 172 8 21 454 IV 228 193 6 20 447 1996 Jul. 90 55 3 7 156 Aug. 87 56 3 8 153 Sep. 75 62 2 6 145 Oct. 76 73 2 7 159 Nov. 74 56 2 8 139 Dec. 77 63 2 6 149 1997 Jan. 74 61 3 5 143 Feb. 58 58 2 3 12 Mar. 65 56 3 3 128 Commercial cattle slaughter -------------------------------------------------------------------- Steers & Total Total Year Steers Heifers heifers cows Bulls Cattle -------------------------------------------------------------------- 1994 I 4,138 2,357 6,495 1,517 150 8,162 II 4,728 2,356 7,084 1,335 164 8,583 III 4,835 2,434 7,269 1,384 172 8,825 IV 4,326 2,442 6,768 1,705 155 8,628 Year 18,027 9,589 27,616 5,941 641 34,198 1995 I 4,218 2,444 6,662 1,593 163 8,418 II 4,882 2,575 7,457 1,421 175 9,053 III 4,903 2,754 7,657 1,445 177 9,279 IV 4,271 2,626 6,897 1,822 171 8,890 Year 18,274 10,399 28,673 6,281 686 35,640 1996 I 4,409 2,673 7,082 1,726 160 8,968 II /2 7,515 1,550 9,240 III /2 7,373 1,525 9,076 IV 2/ 6,800 1,850 8,820 Year 2/ 28,770 6,651 36,104 1997 I /2 6,825 1,625 8,610 Year 2/ 29,419 6,575 25,975 -------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Classes estimated. 2/ Forecast Cattle prices ------------------------------------------ Ok City Nebraska Fdr Sioux Falls Year Steer Steer Utility Cow ------------------------------------------ Dollars per cwt 1994 I 73.11 82.14 44.44 II 68.79 77.63 46.16 III 65.83 76.37 42.77 IV 67.63 74.74 36.68 Year 68.84 77.72 42.51 1995 I 71.58 72.62 39.58 II 64.70 65.77 37.18 III 62.65 66.17 34.93 IV 66.10 67.55 30.61 Year 66.26 68.03 35.58 1996 I 63.06 58.11 32.52 II /2 63-67 63-67 36-38 III 2/ 60-64 62-68 34-36 IV /2 62-68 62-67 33-35 Year 62-67 63-67 34-36 1997 I /2 65-71 58-62 34-36 Year 62-68 61-67 34-36 ------------------------------------------ 1/ Classes estimated. 2/ Forecast Selected price statistics for meat animals and meat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item Nov-95 Dec-95 Jan-96 Feb-96 Mar-96 Apr-96 /* ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Slaughter Steers: Choice, 1100-1300 lb Nebraska direct 67.51 66.34 63.90 62.76 62.52 59.49 Colorado 68.00 66.00 64.00 62.71 61.83 59.80 Texas 67.94 66.14 64.63 63.00 61.77 59.85 California 67.08 66.08 64.13 62.22 61.28 58.50 Slaughter heifers: Nebraska Choice, 1000-1200 lb 67.50 66.33 63.92 62.80 62.13 59.16 Cows: Sioux Falls Commercial 33.35 35.67 37.94 39.06 38.56 35.94 Breaking Utility 29.85 33.83 36.44 37.56 37.06 34.44 Boning Utility 29.18 30.40 31.94 33.06 32.56 29.58 Cutter 27.38 28.28 29.85 31.06 29.81 26.08 Canner 22.91 25.03 26.56 26.91 26.56 24.03 Feeder steers: Okla. City Medium No. 1 500-550 lb 63.88 65.13 61.81 62.31 62.25 59.30 600-650 lb 64.06 63.58 59.75 58.94 58.66 56.90 750-800 lb 67.63 68.33 60.13 58.41 55.78 53.10 Amarillo Medium No. 1, 600-650 lb 60.88 60.00 55.11 57.23 55.89 50.57 Georgia Auctions Medium No. 1-2, 400-500 lb 52.18 52.11 49.33 51.94 50.91 43.58 600-700 lb 52.48 52.83 50.39 51.06 51.19 45.86 Feeder heifers: Medium No. 1, Okla. City 450-500 lb 55.78 56.00 53.91 54.19 52.53 49.33 700-750 lb 63.78 62.71 55.78 54.09 52.03 49.08 Slaughter lambs: Choice, San Angelo 72.00 70.50 74.44 85.63 83.60 83.10 Choice, So. St. Paul 68.13 68.47 69.94 81.32 81.86 82.75 Slaughter ewes, Good: San Angelo 30.83 34.83 40.50 41.88 41.18 35.10 So. St. Paul 19.30 19.69 26.47 30.00 29.77 23.00 Feeder lambs: San Angelo 81.33 83.83 87.69 95.63 96.06 98.80 So. St. Paul 71.33 77.80 81.50 89.79 94.90 90.95 Farm prices: Beef cattle 60.70 60.60 59.10 57.90 56.70 55.60 Calves 64.10 63.30 61.80 60.00 59.40 56.30 Sheep 23.80 26.00 34.40 34.20 34.30 Lambs 77.10 76.50 76.10 84.10 86.40 Meat prices: Wholesale, Central U.S. Boxed beef cutout Choice, 1-3 550-700 lb 108.88 106.08 101.71 98.86 96.36 96.01 700-850 lb 107.14 104.01 99.40 97.87 95.60 95.42 Select, 1-3 550-700 lb 96.33 95.83 97.30 94.85 94.78 92.93 700-850 lb 94.76 94.39 95.77 93.90 93.95 92.86 Cutter Cows 58.94 58.82 61.72 61.48 59.86 56.95 Wholesale, East Coast Choice & Prime Veal carcass 200-280 lb 170.83 164.52 163.26 160.88 167.44 169.77 Lamb carcass < 55 lb 160.25 165.25 165.65 175.00 176.25 176.25 55-65 lb 160.25 160.25 157.25 171.25 176.25 176.25 Retail beef prices: Choice 286.40 284.10 281.50 278.80 275.80 All fresh 258.71 260.04 257.71 255.79 252.36 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- /* Preliminary Selected slaughter statistics for meat animals and meat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item Nov-95 Dec-95 Jan-96 Feb-96 Mar-96 Apr-96 /* ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Commercial: 1/ Slaughter Cattle 2,987 2,827 3,140 2,926 2,902 3,114 Steers 1,398 1,409 1,548 1,428 1,433 1,592 Heifers 880 792 916 878 879 877 Beef cows 379 320 339 298 287 328 Dairy cows 271 257 283 270 249 255 Bulls and Stags 59 49 54 52 54 61 Calves 129 128 144 143 145 132 Sheep and Lambs 377 371 363 364 414 409 Lambs 352 348 341 343 391 383 Ewes 25 23 22 21 23 26 Production Beef 2,098 1,998 2,220 2,048 2,034 2,155 Veal 27 26 30 30 30 28 Lamb and mutton 23 23 23 24 27 27 Pork 1,608 1,507 1,550 1,417 1,421 1,496 Federally inspected: Average live wt Cattle 1,192 1,197 1,197 1,181 1,180 1,162 Calves 353 354 356 352 359 378 Sheep and lambs 124 126 126 128 133 133 Average dressed wt Cattle 710 714 715 707 708 698 Steers 785 784 779 770 767 755 Heifers 718 721 718 709 712 699 Cows 524 527 535 533 532 526 Bulls 842 840 851 841 847 836 Calves 208 208 214 212 212 222 Sheep and lambs 62 63 63 66 67 66 Cold storage stocks: Beef 381.6 381.4 389.6 367.9 362.6 342.7 Veal 7.5 7.3 6.9 7.2 6.5 6.6 Lamb and mutton 7.5 7.8 7.6 9.8 13.0 12.2 Trade: Imports (carcass wt) Beef and veal 137,611 154,912 176,761 150,175 Lamb and mutton 5,486 6,281 4,970 5,649 Exports (carcass wt) Beef and veal 3/ 178,264 156,196 148,364 154,891 Lamb and mutton 471 515 494 561 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Classes estimated. 2/ Beginning of the month. /* Estimate Meat supply, carcass weight 1/ ---------------------------------------------------------------- Production ----------------------Begin- Year Commer- Total ning Im- Total cial stocks ports supply ---------------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Beef: 1993 22,942 23,049 360 2,401 25,810 1994 24,278 24,386 529 2,368 27,283 1995 I 5,888 5,925 548 572 7,045 II 6,325 6,341 514 540 7,395 III 6,625 6,641 471 539 7,651 IV 6,277 6,315 464 453 7,232 Year 25,115 25,222 548 2,104 27,874 1996 I 2/ 6,302 6,339 519 500 7,358 II 2/ 6,425 6,441 454 500 7,395 III 2/ 6,500 6,516 450 550 7,516 IV 2/ 6,250 6,288 425 500 7,213 Year 2/ 25,477 25,584 519 2,050 28,153 1997 I 2/ 6,100 6,137 475 500 7,112 Year 2/ 25,975 26,082 475 2,025 28,582 Pork: 1993 17,030 17,088 385 740 18,213 1994 17,658 17,696 359 743 18,798 1995 I 4,488 4,498 438 173 5,109 II 4,394 4,403 492 167 5,062 III 4,240 4,249 498 154 4,901 IV 4,690 4,700 389 170 5,259 Year 17,812 17,850 438 664 18,952 1996 I 2/ 4,389 4,399 396 148 4,943 II 2/ 4,350 4,359 451 157 4,967 III 2/ 4,400 4,409 480 148 5,037 IV 2/ 4,475 4,485 400 154 5,039 Year 2/ 17,614 17,652 396 607 18,655 1997 I 2/ 4,475 4,485 400 154 5,039 Year 2/ 18,350 18,388 400 605 19,393 Veal: 1993 267 285 5 290 1994 283 293 4 297 1995 I 78 82 7 89 II 74 76 9 85 III 76 78 8 86 IV 80 83 7 90 Year 308 319 7 326 1996 I 2/ 91 95 7 102 II 2/ 80 82 7 89 III 2/ 80 82 6 88 IV 2/ 80 83 6 89 Year 2/ 331 342 7 349 1997 I 2/ 80 84 6 90 Year 2/ 302 313 6 319 Lamb: 1993 329 337 8 53 398 1994 304 308 8 49 365 1995 I 78 79 11 16 106 II 73 74 13 18 105 III 63 64 12 12 88 IV 69 70 7 18 95 Year 283 287 11 64 362 1996 I 2/ 74 75 8 16 99 II 2/ 67 68 12 14 94 III 2/ 56 57 12 12 81 IV 2/ 59 60 9 13 82 Year 2/ 256 260 8 55 323 1997 I 2/ 75 76 11 14 101 Year 2/ 254 258 11 53 322 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Forecast Meat utilization, carcass and retail weight 1/ ---------------------------------------------------------------- Per capita Total Consumption Year Ex- Ending disap- Carcass Retail ports stocks pearance weight weight ---------------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Pounds Beef: 1993 1,275 529 24,006 93.0 65.1 1994 1,611 548 25,124 96.4 67.0 1995 I 368 514 6,163 23.5 16.3 II 452 471 6,472 24.6 17.1 III 499 464 6,688 25.4 17.6 IV 502 519 6,211 23.5 16.4 Year 1,821 519 25,534 97.0 67.4 1996 I 2/ 450 454 6,454 24.4 17.0 II 2/ 535 450 6,410 24.5 16.8 III 2/ 560 425 6,531 24.6 17.1 IV 2/ 575 475 6,163 23.1 16.1 Year 2/ 2,120 475 25,558 96.6 67.0 1997 I 2/ 475 450 6,187 23.2 16.1 Year 2/ 2,250 475 25,857 96.5 67.1 Pork: 1993 435 359 17,419 67.5 52.4 1994 531 438 17,829 68.4 53.1 1995 I 187 492 4,430 16.9 13.1 II 194 498 4,370 16.6 12.9 III 199 389 4,312 16.4 12.7 IV 190 396 4,673 17.7 13.7 Year 770 396 17,786 67.6 52.4 1996 I 2/ 218 451 4,274 16.2 12.5 II 2/ 250 480 4,237 16.0 12.4 III 2/ 230 420 4,387 16.5 12.8 IV 2/ 242 460 4,337 16.2 12.6 Year 2/ 940 460 17,255 64.9 50.3 1997 I 2/ 242 460 4,337 16.2 12.6 Year 2/ 965 400 18,028 67.2 52.2 Veal: 1993 4 286 1.1 0.9 1994 7 290 1.2 0.8 1995 I 9 80 0.3 0.3 II 8 77 0.3 0.2 III 7 79 0.3 0.2 IV 7 83 0.3 0.3 Year 7 319 1.2 1.0 1996 I 2/ 7 95 0.4 0.3 II 2/ 6 83 0.3 0.3 III 2/ 6 82 0.3 0.3 IV 2/ 6 83 0.3 0.3 Year 2/ 6 343 1.3 1.2 1997 I 2/ 6 84 0.3 0.3 Year 2/ 6 313 1.2 0.9 Lamb: 1993 8 8 381 1.5 1.3 1994 9 11 345 1.3 1.2 1995 I 2 13 91 0.3 0.3 II 1 12 92 0.4 0.3 III 2 7 79 0.3 0.3 IV 1 8 86 0.3 0.3 Year 6 8 348 1.3 1.2 1996 I 2/ 2 12 85 0.3 0.3 II 2/ 2 12 80 0.3 0.3 III 2/ 2 9 70 0.3 0.2 IV 2/ 2 11 69 0.3 0.2 Year 2/ 8 11 304 1.2 1.0 1997 I 2/ 2 8 91 0.3 0.3 Year 2/ 8 11 303 1.1 1.0 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Forecast Federally inspected cattle slaughter Week Cattle Steers and heifers ended 1996 1997 % Chg 1996 1997 % Chg ------------------------------------------------------ Thousands Jan. 11 697.5 723.2 4 544.4 549.2 1 18 692.1 729.7 5 537.5 584.1 9 25 681.9 730.5 7 536.6 567.2 6 Feb. 8 653.5 699.6 7 520.1 553.9 6 1 650.2 685.4 5 519.9 541 4 1 709 666.6 -6 547.8 532.5 -3 22 701.4 667.3 -5 553.2 533.3 -4 Mar. 15 688.6 672.3 -2 548.4 534 -3 8 673.2 671.1 -0 540.7 540.3 -0 15 671.9 664.7 -1 536.5 521 -3 29 682.8 660.1 -3 538.7 524.5 -3 22 642.9 648 1 506.6 512.8 1 Apr. 5 673.1 661.4 -2 537.9 529.8 -2 12 672.7 670.1 -0 533.6 541 1 19 698.7 700.9 0 547.8 566.8 3 26 729.1 696.3 -4 579.2 557.9 -4 May. 3 724.3 710.4 -2 579.9 582.1 0 10 739.5 600.1 17 754.9 604.9 24 750.6 597.7 31 664.5 522.5 June 7 757.3 609.4 14 767.9 624.7 21 713.5 570.1 28 727.8 582.1 July 5 597 486.7 12 700 550 19 721 565.7 26 679.7 539.4 Aug. 2 668.2 530.9 9 711.7 568.8 16 710.9 563.4 23 733.7 575.3 30 705.2 551.1 Sept. 6 597.1 470 13 692.9 539.2 20 657 502.7 27 633.5 481.5 Oct. 4 653.9 496.2 11 663.7 498.9 18 674.8 504.9 25 675.7 500.6 Nov. 1 686.6 504.7 8 693.6 514.9 15 669.3 488.6 22 670.9 494.5 29 599.3 460.6 Dec. 6 696.9 518.6 13 694.8 511.6 20 671.1 508.7 27 501.4 394.4 Federally inspected cattle slaughter Week All cows Beef cows ended 1996 1997 % Chg 1996 1997 % Chg ------------------------------------------------------ Jan. 11 140.6 161.8 15 78.8 89 13 18 142.3 135.2 -5 78.5 74 -6 25 133.1 150.9 13 69.9 84 19 Feb. 8 122.6 133.4 9 65.8 71 7 1 120.2 133.3 11 60.9 71 16 1 147.6 122.3 -17 79.9 61 -23 22 134.9 122 -10 73.5 59 -20 Mar. 15 127.8 126.2 -1 63.7 62 -3 8 120.2 118.8 -1 64.5 58 -10 15 122.9 129.6 5 63.2 68 7 29 130.6 122.2 -6 72.2 66 -8 22 124 122.1 -2 68.1 64 -6 Apr. 5 122.9 118.2 -4 65.8 64 -3 12 125.6 116.5 -7 70.2 62 -12 19 136.4 120.1 -12 75.8 64 -15 26 135.4 123.9 -8 80.6 69 -14 May. 3 130.1 114.2 -12 78.1 63 -19 10 125.1 74.5 17 135.2 76 24 138.1 84.1 31 128.6 79.6 June 7 133.4 80.4 14 129.1 77.7 21 129.1 79.8 28 131.1 80 July 5 99.7 61.1 12 135.4 78.4 19 140.3 81 26 125.4 71.6 Aug. 2 122.8 68.1 9 128.4 73.9 16 132.3 75.5 23 141.9 81.1 30 137.4 77.7 Sept. 6 113.5 62.5 13 137.5 79.5 20 138.7 77.4 27 136.2 76.7 Oct. 4 141.9 83.4 11 149.4 86.5 18 154.4 90.8 25 159.7 94.7 Nov. 1 166.8 101.3 8 163.8 98 15 166.3 100.5 22 162.6 98.5 29 127.9 74.8 Dec. 6 165 96.2 13 169 98.2 20 150.4 87.6 27 100.7 57.7 Selected price statistics for meat animals and meat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item Nov-96 Dec-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 Mar-97 Apr-97 /* ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Slaughter Steers: Choice, 1100-1300 l Nebraska direct 72.61 67.46 65.51 65.48 68.21 68.32 Colorado 70.91 66.03 65.11 65.2 67.93 68.2 Texas 70.7 66.3 65.07 65.35 67.44 67.66 California 68.07 65.25 64.13 64.5 67.42 65.9 Slaughter heifers: Nebraska Choice, 1000-1200 71.27 Cows: Sioux Falls Commercial 30.53 28.59 29.12 34.69 38.26 39.47 Breaking Utility 29.07 27.5 28.15 34.06 37.44 38.54 Boning Utility 25.17 25.74 27.77 32.5 35.79 37.72 Cutter 21.67 19.94 20.29 25 28.03 30.14 Canner 18.6 17.26 16.88 21.81 26.06 28.74 Feeder steers: Okla. City Medium No. 1 500-550 lb 68 69.79 75.08 81.46 87.29 87.85 600-650 lb 64.44 66.04 70.92 74.02 77.64 81.57 750-800 lb 67.19 67.08 69.72 69.46 69.14 72.52 Amarillo Medium No. 1, 600-650 lb 60.34 59.16 73.19 75.38 73.93 77.2 Georgia Auctions Medium No. 1-2, 400-500 lb 52.83 54.18 64.47 70.72 79.06 79.65 600-700 lb 53.83 54.46 63.56 67.09 70.74 71.86 Feeder heifers: Medium No. 1, Okla. City 450-500 lb 57.25 58.67 64.68 70.43 76.81 77.74 700-750 lb 61.16 61.21 65.5 64.59 65.6 68.73 Slaughter lambs: Choice, San Angelo 80 88.88 94.63 100.81 97.5 98 Choice, So. St. Pau 79.38 84.97 95.76 99.19 99.83 89.53 Slaughter ewes, Good: San Angelo 42.08 46.31 50.06 38.5 54.06 34.6 So. St. Paul 27.65 33.03 38.19 34.33 37.38 34.42 Feeder lambs: San Angelo 92.33 106.25 109 115 122.75 115.65 So. St. Paul 87.32 99.78 104.47 106.99 106 105.3 Farm prices: Beef cattle 63.4 61 61.4 61.9 64.8 65 Calves 61.2 61.8 68.1 74.9 80 82.1 Sheep 29.8 34.2 41.8 41.4 42.7 Lambs 84.6 88.2 94.6 99.8 99.6 Meat prices: Wholesale, Central U.S. Boxed beef cutout Choice, 1-3 550-700 lb 117.53 108.03 101.9 98.98 104.87 104.17 700-850 lb 115.57 106.55 100.79 98.17 104.33 103.56 Select, 1-3 550-700 lb 98.31 95.91 96.46 95.4 99.83 99.05 700-850 lb 97.15 94.81 95.47 94.55 99.22 98.47 Cutter Cows 53.9 52.54 53.73 59.73 68.96 68.33 Wholesale, East Coast Choice & Prime Veal carcass 200-280 lb 161.85 152.13 153.58 171.13 181.01 168.2 Lamb carcass < 55 lb 165.25 168.97 182.1 188.75 189.75 192.78 55-65 lb 165.25 168.97 182.1 188.75 189.75 189.78 Retail beef prices: Choice 285.9 287.3 281.7 278.6 276.1 279 All fresh 251.16 256.25 256.14 254.79 254.78 256.61 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- /* Preliminary Selected slaughter statistics for meat animals and meat ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item Nov-96 Dec-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 Mar-97 Apr-97/* ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Commercial: 1/ Slaughter Cattle 2,872 2,876 3,248 2,797 2,862 Steers 1,300 1,284 1,496 1,317 1,369 Heifers 830 888 1,032 913 910 Beef cows 410 379 366 266 279 Dairy cows 273 275 302 252 248 Bulls and Stags 59 50 52 49 56 Calves 145 153 147 126 131 Sheep and Lambs 336 349 304 327 398 Lambs 316 328 288 310 378 Ewes 20 21 16 17 20 Production Beef 1,955 1,950 2,223 1,921 1,968 Veal 30 31 31 27 28 Lamb and mutton 21 22 20 21 26 Pork 1,429 1,429 1,461 1,309 1,422 Federally inspected: Average live wt Cattle 1,167 1,163 1,164 1,166 1,164 Calves 338 334 340 346 347 Sheep and lambs 127 130 131 132 133 Average dressed wt Cattle 687 685 692 694 694 Steers 766 757 757 753 749 Heifers 698 695 699 697 693 Cows 515 517 524 528 536 Bulls 826 824 835 846 850 Calves 209 207 210 214 215 Sheep and lambs 63 65 65 66 66 Cold storage stocks: Beef 295.9 288.0 284.9 290.3 261.7 292.9 Veal 6.8 6.5 7.3 7.2 6.6 6.3 Lamb and mutton 10.5 9.8 8.9 9.6 9.9 11.2 Trade: Imports (carcass wt Beef and veal 167,546 186,081 150,175 151,740 Lamb and mutton 5,967 8,123 5,649 6,761 Exports (carcass wt Beef and veal 3/ 141,539 155,572 154,891 153,269 Lamb and mutton 679 580 561 336 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Classes estimated. 2/ Beginning of the month. /* Estimate Commercial cattle slaughter --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Steers & Total Total Year Steers Heifers heifers cows Bulls Cattle --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1995 I 4,218 2,444 6,662 1,593 163 8,418 II 4,882 2,575 7,457 1,421 175 9,053 III 4,903 2,754 7,657 1,445 177 9,279 IV 4,271 2,626 6,897 1,822 171 8,890 Year 18,274 10,399 28,673 6,281 686 35,640 1996 I 4,411 2,674 7,085 1,726 160 8,971 II 4,944 2,719 7,663 1,739 187 9,589 III 4,495 2,674 7,169 1,754 200 9,123 IV 3,975 2,689 6,664 2,055 181 8,900 Year 17,825 10,756 28,581 7,274 728 36,583 1997 I 4,182 2,855 7,037 1,713 157 8,907 II /2 7,700 1,450 170 9,320 III /2 7,450 1,450 180 9,080 IV /2 6,750 1,650 170 8,570 Year 2/ 28,937 6,263 677 35,877 1998 I /2 6,970 1,450 145 8,565 Year 2/ 28,855 5,600 600 35,055 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Classes estimated. 2/ Forecast Cattle prices --------------------------------------------------- Ok City Nebraska Fdr Sioux Falls Year Steer Steer Utility Cow --------------------------------------------------- Dollars per cwt 1994 I 71.58 72.62 39.58 II 64.70 65.77 37.18 III 62.65 66.17 34.93 IV 66.10 67.55 30.61 Year 66.26 68.03 35.58 1995 I 63.06 58.11 32.52 II 60.26 56.87 30.37 III 66.51 63.20 31.74 IV 70.39 66.15 26.68 Year 65.05 61.08 30.33 1996 I 66.40 69.44 32.02 II 65-6 69-75 38-40 III /2 64-7 71-77 40-44 IV /2 68-7 73-79 39-43 Year 66-7 70-75 37-40 1997 I /2 71-7 74-77 41-43 II /2 71-7 74-79 41-44 Year ------------------------------------------------ 1/ Classes estimated. 2/ Forecast High Plains cattle feeding simulator ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Purchased During Nov-96 Dec-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 Mar-97 Apr-97 May-97 Marketed During Mar-97 Apr-97 May-97 Jun-97 Jul-97 Aug-97 Sep-97 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Expenses: ($/head) 750 lb. feeder ste 514.43 513.60 533.40 531.45 529.05 549.38 565.50 Total feed, handli and management ch 153.73 153.42 154.17 154.83 161.42 192.82 192.64 Interest on feeder and 1/2 feed 30.66 30.61 31.50 31.42 31.46 33.32 34.15 Death loss (1% of purchase) 5.14 5.14 5.33 5.31 5.29 5.49 5.66 Marketing 1/ f.o.b. f.o.b. f.o.b. f.o.b. f.o.b. f.o.b. f.o.b. Total 703.95 702.76 724.40 723.01 727.23 781.01 797.95 Selling price requir to cover: $/cwt. Feed and feeder co 58.31 57.92 59.26 58.20 58.20 62.56 63.90 All costs 61.44 61.02 62.43 61.31 61.29 65.83 67.26 Selling price 2/ 67.44 67.66 67.00 Net margin 6.00 6.64 4.57 Cost per 100 lb. gai Variable cost less interest $/c 40.13 39.48 38.87 37.31 38.20 45.44 45.43 Feed costs $/cwt 38.83 38.20 37.57 36.07 36.99 44.18 44.14 Total costs $/cwt 47.88 47.10 46.55 44.63 45.41 53.07 53.26 Prices: ($/cwt) Choice feeder stee 750-800 lb. Ok Ci 67.19 67.08 69.72 69.46 69.14 71.85 74.00 Feed, Prices, High Milo $/cwt 4.25 4.23 4.18 4.29 4.54 4.51 4.50 Corn $/cwt 5.07 5.00 5.02 5.03 5.16 5.11 5.10 Wheat $/cwt 6.85 7.13 6.92 6.72 6.99 7.30 7.71 Cottonseed Meal (41%) $/cwt. 9.42 9.52 10.47 9.50 9.63 10.23 10.23 Alfalfa hay $/ton 133.65 141.00 153.00 154.00 150.00 145.00 145.00 Interest, annual rate 3/ 10.37 10.37 10.32 10.32 10.32 10.32 10.32 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Most cattle sold f.o.b. at the feedlot with 4-percent shrink. 2/ Choice slaughter steers, 1100-1300 lb, Texas-Oklahoma direct. 3/ Prime rate plus 2 points. U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Mar-96 Apr-96 May-96 Jun-96 Jul-96 Aug-96 Sep-96 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 38590 46557 42904 31018 59520 59808 49761 New Zealand 57532 60923 55746 53486 49900 40585 19753 Canada 45609 42376 44263 51201 51103 55568 50342 Brazil 8014 7936 8232 5515 9323 10874 5491 Argentina 14944 12466 13330 10419 10789 12491 18834 Central Am 11038 7219 6673 5124 5880 9624 10230 Other 4879 6691 6363 7283 9074 8600 7630 Total 180607 184169 177512 164047 195589 197550 162041 Beef & Veal Export Japan 90923 121057 105779 88239 79934 78167 67354 Canada 24034 26001 26432 27647 27151 21895 21757 Mexico 9560 11650 13254 14321 16082 16862 16607 Korea, R 13105 29863 21641 11423 12125 14229 16052 Caribbean 1229 825 1286 1022 977 835 654 Other 10365 17114 15203 11349 11611 19729 14399 Total 149215 206510 183596 154000 147880 151717 136823 Cattle Imports Mexico 58555 33869 18612 8382 5869 4783 3594 Canada 149868 134368 152867 118961 117522 136421 123436 Over 700 127688 123591 143022 112791 112069 129892 115526 440-700 16459 3576 2996 2049 1006 1605 2878 Total 208423 168237 171479 127343 123395 141204 127034 Cattle Exports Mexico 4656 6699 10834 11454 10842 12052 11610 Canada 2993 3692 3433 3160 2732 2203 2264 Total 7852 10729 15838 16229 14012 14324 14421 Lamb Imports Australia 3154 1957 2006 2155 1844 1903 1718 New Zealand 2627 2159 2599 1896 2116 2865 1884 Total 5820 4117 4696 4052 3960 4768 3611 Mutton Imports Total 2182 2047 1768 1458 2477 2121 1246 Lamb and mutton exports Total 477 575 468 226 518 432 378 U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Oct-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 Beef & Veal Imports Australia 49465 47308 44136 49503 23136 New Zealand 21043 19235 33468 43849 37876 Canada 57183 48391 49652 57569 58149 Brazil 9416 6640 5198 8252 7132 Argentina 12884 9764 11292 10146 9886 Central Amer 9413 8931 11861 8578 8498 Other 5844 10661 11941 8183 7063 Total 165248 150929 167546 186081 151740 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 79001 71297 58933 74217 76807 Canada 23137 25944 23830 20586 21530 Mexico 16514 15561 21341 17533 19654 Korea, R 15689 16924 19031 29088 21304 Caribbean 1337 1300 1661 880 1211 Other 16379 20598 16743 13268 12763 Total 152058 151625 141539 155572 153269 Cattle Imports Mexico 12349 116058 93729 54192 65802 Canada 122741 71539 84667 104863 100298 Over 700 111234 61829 77513 95472 87697 440-700 5329 4937 4197 6290 9240 Total 135090 187597 178421 159056 166100 Cattle Exports Mexico 14264 11883 12979 19008 19162 Canada 3846 5537 5069 3612 2798 Total 18406 18099 18343 22687 22296 Lamb Imports Australi 2389 2504 2471 2656 2339 New Zeal 1676 1421 1744 2393 2366 Total 4067 3925 4215 5050 4738 Mutton Imports Total 1352 2200 1751 3073 2023 Lamb and mutton exports Total 543 327 679 580 336 END_OF_FILE