LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY June 19, 1997 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. LDP-M-42. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #LDP-M, $28/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Note: This report was released at noon on June 18, 1997, but was not posted on that date due to problems with the file. Conditions in dairy product markets changed radically in April. Sales went from strong winter increases to a sharp drop, while stocks jumped. Wholesale prices fell during April and, except for butter, had not recovered by mid-June. Evidently, part of the strong winter sales went to build large pipeline stocks by the end of March. Once prices started to erode, buyers were able to fall back on these stocks and let prices fall further. Basic market conditions may remain fairly tight, indicating eventual strength in prices. Economic growth continues to support dairy product demand, and recovery in milk production has been curbed by high prices and tight supplies of both forage and concentrate feeds. However, dairy prices cannot rise until domestic and export sales work down the current excess stocks. Farm milk prices are projected to rise slightly through midsummer and post sizable autumn increases, but stay below a year earlier during the rest of 1997. Milk Production Growing Spring milk production has run close to expected levels, as feed prices and availability have been manageable so far. In the 20 monthly reporting States, May output rose 2 percent from a year earlier, following rises of 1 percent in March and almost 2 percent in April. However, the modest recovery from the weak levels of a year earlier remains threatened by continued high feed prices and a shortage of acceptable quality forage. Farmers received a record $127 per ton of alfalfa hay in May, up a fourth from the already high price of a year earlier. Alfalfa hay prices were very high relative to both milk and concentrate feed prices. Farmers in most regions had clear reason to stretch any remaining good forage as far as possible. The first cutting of new hay and the availability of spring pasture should be easing the forage situation. But, the cool weather over most of the country has retarded forage growth and forage stocks are very low. Unless the second and later cuttings are both large and good, supplies of dairy quality forage could remain a problem. Lower feed grain prices have reduced concentrate ration prices, although increased prices for protein meals have limited the decrease. In addition, the spread between the prices of key feed ingredients and the ration value has recovered somewhat from the very low level of a year earlier. The April-June ration value is expected to be 8 to 9 percent below a year earlier. If crop conditions remain favorable, concentrate prices are expected to edge lower during the rest of 1997. The milk-feed price ratio probably will be below 1.5 during the current quarter and will remain relatively unfavorable to heavier concentrate feeding until at least autumn. Such ratios would normally be associated with restrained increases in concentrate feeding. Opportunities to substitute between forages and concentrates or to choose a lower quality of one and compensate with the other will be quite limited because of the even higher price of hay. Such feed conditions make it unlikely that milk per cow will return to trend levels during the remainder of 1997. Late spring-early summer milk per cow probably will post large increases from the very poor showing of a year earlier. May output per cow (20 major States) rose more than 3 percent from last year, following an almost 3-percent increase in April. Unlike 1996, farmers apparently avoided a collapse in milk per cow by stretching their forage until new-crop supplies started to be available. Late 1997 gains in milk per cow are projected to be modest, even if crops are fairly good. Low feed stocks will slow declines in feed prices and late 1997 prices probably will still be relatively high. In addition, the cows may be somewhat slow to respond to better feed if their spring nutrition was a little thin. For the year, milk per cow is expected to gain slightly more than 2 percent after no increase in 1996. Returns over concentrate costs this spring and summer will be down substantially from 1996 but not unlike 1992-1995. However, the profitability of individual producers probably varies more than normal because of the forage situation. Those who had adequate amounts of good quality homegrown 1996 forage or those who laid in ample quantities of hay early in the 1996 forage season may be on fairly sound footing. However, producers who had to pay recent high prices will have significantly reduced returns. If milk prices recover as expected this autumn, returns will be relatively favorable in late 1997 and early 1998. The role of the feed situation in deterring individual herd expansions may be greater than the reduction in returns would imply. Feed costs are relatively inflexible and producers tend to view even nominally profitable expansions as too risky under unsettled feed conditions. Adequate forage and easing concentrate prices may alter attitudes by late 1997, but producers probably will stay cautious until then. Cull cow prices have been running about $5 per cwt above last year's very low levels but probably are still below where they might encourage some marginal slaughter of dairy cows. The large herd of replacement heifers, available at fairly moderate prices, could easily support additional herd expansions but may not do much to slow declines in aggregate cow numbers. The continued exit of dairy farms and the slow rate of herd expansions have caused milk cow numbers to decline more than 1 percent from a year earlier. The decreases are not projected to slow much by the end of 1997, in large part because of the uncertain feed situation. The annual average number of dairy cows is expected to be just more than 9.2 million, down more than 1 percent and the largest decrease since 1992. Spring and summer milk output is expected to rise more than 1 percent from the depressed production of 1996. Only a fractional autumn increase is projected, even though milk production at the end of the year will be (in most ways) the strongest of the year. Total 1997 production is expected to be close to the 155.4 billion pounds of 1995, up about 1 percent from a year earlier. Milk production in 1998 is expected to grow moderately, although very good feed conditions might allow much larger rises. There probably will be a relatively large pool of farmers ready to expand, while the number of producers leaving dairying may slow. Additionally, gains in milk per cow could be big if feed supplies are ample and high quality. However, neither returns nor the milk-feed price ratio are expected to improve dramatically. The absence of strong incentives and the expected weak undertones for most of 1997 production imply that increases in 1998 probably will fall short of their potential. Output is projected to grow 1 to 2 percent, with milk per cow gains of about 2 percent and cow numbers down fractionally. Wholesale Prices To Recover A sudden drop in dairy product movement and a sharp buildup in stocks dropped cheese and butter prices dramatically in April. A similar decline in nonfat dry milk prices was not as precipitous but continued through most of May. Butter prices in late May regained most of their earlier loss, but cheese and powder prices have yet to show much recovery. Once the current excess stocks are worked off and production declines seasonally, prices are expected to rise substantially and, perhaps, quickly. Between March 28 and May 2, exchange prices for Cheddar cheese fell 15 cents per pound for blocks and 12 cents per pound for barrels. (Prior to May 2, 1997, spot cash trading was on the National Cheese Exchange. Since then, it has been on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.) May price changes were mostly technical adjustments, as block prices rose slightly while barrel prices slipped further. April commercial disappearance of cheese fell 2 percent from a year earlier, after posting sizable increases in each of the preceding 6 months. The dropoff in movement, along with similar drops for butter and nonfat dry milk, boosted stocks sharply and put great pressure on prices. Sales of nonfat dry milk collapsed in April as cheesemakers abruptly quit using powder to make cheese. Manufacturers' stocks of nonfat dry milk jumped almost by half between the start and end of the month. Under this burden, powder prices continued down until western prices were essentially at the support purchase price. Large sales under the Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP), along with small price support purchases, probably have removed most of the surplus accumulated during April-May. However, some continuing surplus is likely until the cheese market recovers. The April declines in butter prices may have had more to do with weakness in other dairy markets than with conditions in the butter market. April butter output and stocks rose substantially. But unlike cheese and nonfat dry milk, butter production was well past its seasonal peak and the tight season was rapidly approaching. In addition, April butter movement was strong, even though it was much lower than the extraordinary, pipeline-swelling level of a year earlier. Consumer use of cheese is expected to be fairly strong during the second half of the year, and modest milk production will limit cheese production. This combination is projected to boost cheese prices once the current excess stocks are worked off. Small summer price rises are expected. Renewed use by the cheese industry, along with continued DEIP impacts, should firm prices of nonfat dry milk. Seasonal rises are projected to begin in earnest by late summer or early autumn. Butter prices may be fairly well positioned for this time of year. Some additional seasonal increases are likely once hot weather drops milkfat production and boosts ice cream sales. In late summer, butter prices will be very sensitive to how traders assess autumn prospects as the tightest season winds down. Autumn prices are currently expected to be near summer levels. Current pipeline stocks may be quite lean. If so, a weakening in milk production because of feed conditions or buyer concerns about not having enough to meet final sales could set off a scramble to build pipeline holdings that would radically change wholesale markets. Prices would jump much sooner and further than currently projected. However, such a scenario would also imply an early seasonal peak, with possibly sharp price drops in late 1997. The May Basic Formula Price (BFP) for milk was $10.70 per cwt, down $1.79 from March and almost $3 from the soaring prices of a year earlier. The May price probably was near the seasonal low. Only small seasonal rises in the BFP are expected through midsummer, but it could rise substantially by late 1997. The BFP is projected to average about $13 per cwt during October-December. Average farm milk prices have been down substantially from a year earlier, although they have been considerably more above the BFP than normal. The first-half average will be about 6 percent below 1996. Milk prices are expected to stay below a year earlier during the rest of the year. Summer declines may exceed $3 per cwt, but seasonal rises should narrow the gap by the last quarter. For the year, farmers are projected to receive $1.25 to $1.75 less for their milk than they did in 1996. In 1998, the modest projected growth in milk production is expected to be absorbed fairly easily by gains in commercial use. Milk prices are projected to be close to the 1997 average. Key factors in the 1998 price outlook include continued growth in the economy and consumer incomes, whether the size and quality of the 1997 forage crops will support much expansion by those in a position to do so, and the lingering effects (if any) of the current period of low milk prices and feed problems. Retail Dairy Prices Easing May retail prices of all dairy products were down about 3 percent from the autumn peak but still about 5 percent higher than a year earlier, with similar price changes for fluid milk and for manufactured products. The farm-retail price spread this spring was up sharply from a year earlier, as it has been since the autumn of 1996. However this expansion in the spread followed four consecutive quarters of year-to-year declines. Retail prices are expected to edge lower during the second half, falling below a year earlier by autumn. The annual average is expected to be about 2 percent higher than in 1996. The farm-retail spread is projected to rise 9 to 11 percent, following only a 1-percent increase last year. In 1998, retail dairy prices are expected to be about unchanged to 2 percent lower. The farm-to-retail price spread is projected to decline modestly, while farm milk prices are about the same. Dairy Product Supplies Up March-April supplies of milk for manufacturing grew slightly because of the small increase in milk production and slippage in fluid sales. In March, the extra milk went into cheese production, and supplies of raw milk probably continued to be augmented with nonfat dry milk. April's falling cheese prices and sales changed the picture substantially. Total cheese production fell below a year earlier for the first time since August 1995. Although American cheese output stayed slightly above last year, production of other varieties fell 3 percent. Manufacturing supplies probably will be above a year earlier during most of the rest of 1997, with large increases during late spring and early summer. The destination of this milk will depend largely on how quickly the cheese market recovers. If cheese prices start to rise, cheese plants could easily absorb the increase in raw milk supplies and probably would again have to rely on supplemental powder. Until this occurs, the extra milk probably will go to butter-powder plants. Butter is clearly in the strongest current market position, most of the increased milk production is in the West, and DEIP exports likely will be able to clear most of the nonfat dry milk not wanted by domestic buyers. Commercial dairy stocks jumped during April for the major dairy products. Buyers held purchases to a minimum as prices fell, causing warehouse holdings to climb. Even so, May 1 stocks were not extremely large, although American cheese and nonfat dry milk holdings probably were larger than desired by manufacturers. Total commercial stocks were 5 percent above a year earlier on a milkfat basis and 6 percent on a skim solids basis. American cheese stocks jumped 8 percent between April 1 and May 1, starting May up 12 percent from a year earlier. May 1 stocks were not much larger, relative to sales, than the average for the 1990's thus far. However, the April increase was extraordinary and marked a clear break in market conditions. Stocks of other cheese varieties behaved much differently. May 1 holdings were only modestly higher than a month earlier and 14 percent lower than a year earlier. May 1 commercial stocks of all cheese were 5 percent higher than a year earlier. Butter stocks also rose substantially during April, adding 15 million pounds during the month. May 1 stocks were slightly higher than a year earlier but were not particularly large. Meanwhile, nonfat dry milk stocks jumped by almost a half during April and were 19 percent higher than a year earlier on May 1. Like American cheese stocks, the April buildups were more meaningful than the level on May 1. May 1 stocks of minor products were down from a year earlier. More stable prices for these products have not generated the strong buyer reactions shown for major products. Changes in dairy stocks may continue to be erratic. As long as the current market uncertainty persists, swings in pipeline holdings might produce unusual movements in warehouse stocks. In general, commercial stocks are expected to run somewhat higher than a year earlier. Last year's inventories were not very effective in buffering market variability. On the other hand, a rush to replenish pipeline stocks (because of depletion or anticipated price rises) could easily drop summer or autumn stocks to low levels. April Sales Plunge April sales of most major dairy products dropped from a year earlier after large winter gains. Commercial use of all products (milkfat basis) fell about 3 percent in April, compared with increases of more than 3 percent during each of the first 3 months. Sales on a skim solids basis showed a very similar pattern. Faced with dropping prices, wholesale buyers held their purchases to a bare minimum. Although the decline may be a bit misleading because April 1996 was a particularly strong month for sales of butter and nonfat dry milk, a drop of this magnitude indicates that pipeline stocks were fairly substantial at the end of March. In addition, buyers may have been willing to let their pipeline holdings go very low because of the closeness of the seasonal peak in supplies of milk for manufacturing. Sales of other-than-American cheese swung from a 6-percent March increase to a 2-percent April decline. American cheese movement had already posted a 4-percent decline in March and followed with a 3-percent decrease in April. Both cheese categories were sold in significantly larger amounts during the January-March quarter. The cause of such variation in use is unclear. Winter retail sales were a little sluggish, because of the sharp increases in retail prices compared with a year earlier, but did manage to post a minimal gain. Pipeline stocks may have built because wholesale use slowed or simply because of overly aggressive buying. Both the wholesale and retail sectors should be getting support from continued economic growth. April butter use was fairly strong even though it was 16 percent below the very high year-earlier level. In April 1996, rapidly tightening markets spurred substantial building of pipeline stocks for summer and autumn use- -the opposite of this year. Also, commercial exports have been very small this year compared with the still significant amounts of last year. Disappearance of nonfat dry milk in April fell sharply from the high sales of a year earlier. Unlike butter however, nonfat dry milk movement was weak as well as just below last year. The April sales were 14 percent less than the average monthly disappearance during 1994-1996. Falling cheese prices made it no longer profitable to produce cheese from powder, a major use of nonfat dry milk in recent years. Other users probably reduced their purchases and inventories as prices edged lower. Fluid milk sales declined fractionally through the first quarter, although they may have been slightly stronger in April. Fluid milk sales were undoubtedly affected by sharply higher retail prices than a year earlier, although other factors probably contributed. Sales of perishable manufactured products were mixed. Use of regular ice cream has risen steadily, but sales of other frozen products fell, in some cases sharply. Meanwhile, sales of cottage cheese have been about steady, although a shift from creamed to lowfat continues. Dairy product demand is projected to continue to receive good support from the general economy, as incomes grow and unemployment stays low. Prices to wholesale buyers have been more attractive than a year earlier and retail prices are becoming relatively more attractive. On the other hand, the size of pipeline stocks is very uncertain. The strong winter cheese movement might have gone mostly to build user stocks, some of which are still around, or pipeline stocks may have been drawn down to quite low levels. Cheese movement is expected to recover quickly once pipeline stocking returns to normal. Commercial use in 1998 is projected to rise about 1 percent on either a milkfat or skim solids basis. DEIP Contracts Surge Weakening domestic markets in April-May pushed nonfat dry milk producers to seek DEIP sales to reduce stocks. Meanwhile, international market demand was fairly solid with Mexico, Algeria, and Asian countries active. This convergence resulted in a major pickup in contract activity under the DEIP. Between April 1 and mid-June, more than 35,000 tons (almost 80 million pounds) of nonfat dry milk were sold, along with about 1,500 tons (3 million pounds) of cheese and the equivalent of 4,000 tons (10 million pounds) of butter. Most of the powder contracts were for relatively quick shipment. About 20 million pounds of nonfat dry milk per month will be shipped during May-July, the largest removals of powder since 1995. So far, only small amounts have been contracted for autumn shipment. Importing countries probably want to get a clearer picture of the European situation and some idea of Oceanic prospects before making autumn and winter purchase commitments. Activity under DEIP is expected to slacken in coming months, even if domestic producers continue to seek export contracts. Needs for quick shipment probably have been largely satisfied, at least for the big importers, and there is little apparent incentive to make commitments well in advance. Even so, there probably will be a fairly steady stream of small volume contracts until domestic cheesemakers again seek powder aggressively. Barring a major supply shortfall elsewhere in the world, international markets probably will not be strong enough to pull nonfat dry milk away from a re-tightened domestic market. International prices of nonfat dry milk have slowly declined since early 1997, reaching about $1,725 per ton in early June. Although the price in U. S. dollars was about $200 per ton below a year earlier, the price in the currencies of most important dairy trading countries was about unchanged. Import demand has been fairly firm and probably about matches the current use rate. Supplies have been mixed. Southern Hemisphere supplies from the second half of their season were quite large but were fully committed some time ago. European supplies are building seasonally but traders seemed to hold stocks with confidence. The recent U.S. sales seemed to have relatively little impact. International butter prices have varied within a relatively narrow range since December. At about $1,725 per metric ton in mid-June, butter prices were about unchanged from a year earlier in dollars but up considerably in most currencies. Import demand from Russia and some other important buyers has been somewhat stronger than a year earlier. Also, domestic markets in the European Union have been somewhat tight with good internal demand and sharply lower stocks. Like dry milk, Oceanic butter supplies were committed earlier. International prices are expected to be fairly steady through the northern summer, with butter prices unchanged to edging higher and powder prices the same to slipping slightly. Autumn and winter prices will depend on Southern Hemisphere weather conditions and output. Seasonal price rises probably will be modest if another big production boost seems likely. On the other hand, substantial increases are possible if dry conditions threaten southern output. During January-March, U.S. cheese imports were somewhat larger than a year earlier because of a wider gap between international and domestic prices. However, this winter's imports were similar to those of 1995. The EU has restricted export subsidies to the United States in order to meet its GATT commitments, and the U. S. market is not necessarily the most attractive. Imports of other products also were slightly higher than a year earlier. Imports probably will tend to run above 1996 levels during most of the remainder of the year. Processing Beef Prices Moderate Processing beef supplies and prices have shifted sharply since midwinter. Prices for 90-percent lean boneless beef rose sharply in late February- early March, from the low $80's per cwt in early 1997 to a peak near $110 in early March. Average monthly prices peaked near $103 in March. Large promotional programs and increased competition within the fast-food industry were expected to create strong demand for processed beef at a time when cow slaughter was expected to slow. Although first-quarter cow slaughter was near the large-year earlier level of 1.7 million head, the industry built up stocks to guard against shortages later in the year, resulting in the sharp increase in processing beef prices. However, as cow slaughter, particularly beef cow slaughter, dropped sharply in the second quarter, it became increasingly apparent that the strong demand was not materializing. Faced with declining demand and a sharp buildup in stocks, prices began to drop. Prices for lean processing beef dropped to near $80 per cwt in early June as a national advertising campaign for hamburgers ended prematurely. Although cow beef supplies were down, larger supplies of leaner fed beef were available to supply end cuts and trimmings to increase processing beef supplies. Strong U.S. prices in late winter, combined with weak demand for imported beef in Japan, likely caused larger supplies of processing beef to be exported to the U.S., placing additional pressure on prices. Although cow slaughter is expected to remain sharply lower through 1998 as the beef herd liquidation ends, fed beef marketings will remain large through at least early fall. Cattle on feed on June 1 in feedlots with more than 1,000 head of capacity in the 7 monthly reporting States were up 13 percent from the low year- earlier level. Although the number of cattle on feed for over 90 days is rising, cattle on feed inventories are declining seasonally and feedlots remain current. However, slaughter weights are rising seasonally and the market is facing larger marketings and summer doldrums, which will put more pressure on current marketings. Continued reduction in cow slaughter will hold down supply pressure, but lackluster export demand will put more pressure on the domestic market. Fed cattle prices are expected to remain under pressure until late July, when seasonal strength in the export market is likely as demand improves in Japan as cooler weather approaches and red meat stock buildups are worked down. Hog Prices Weaken After reaching about $60 per cwt in mid-May, hog prices declined to the mid-$50's by mid-June. The lower prices are due to higher slaughter rates than a year earlier, burdensome stocks, competitive prices of other meats, and weaker than anticipated pork exports. Weekly hog slaughter rates this year through mid-May averaged about 4 percent below a year ago. Since mid-May slaughter rates averaged about 1 percent above last year. Pork stocks in cold storage at the end of April were up 16 percent from a year ago. The spread between the composite retail pork price and the all-fresh beef price remains very narrow. Hog price projections for the remainder of 1997 and all of 1998 are below those of a month ago. Projected Pork Exports Lowered U.S. pork exports are expected to total 1.25 billion pounds (carcass weight) in 1997, up 31 percent for 1996. Earlier this year, expectations were to export about 1.355 billion pounds. The main factors behind the reduction are slower-than-anticipated sales to Japan and Russia and continued weak market fundamentals. Although U.S. exports to Japan have increased month-over-month in the first 3 months of 1997, prices in the U.S. and Japan signal slower trade than what was expected after the breakout of foot-and-mouth disease in Taiwan in late March. Japan carried very large stocks into 1997. Typically, Japan's beginning stocks average 5 percent of total annual consumption, but pork stocks at the beginning of 1997 were 12 percent of expected consumption. Although Japanese stocks are declining, they remain significantly higher than average, limiting import demand. The second factor contributing to slower than anticipated growth in Japanese pork imports is the exchange rate. A "high" dollar makes imports from the U.S. relatively more expensive in Japan. In the first 3 months of 1997, the dollar was 15 percent higher relative to the yen than a year ago. The third, and probably the most important factor behind lower Japanese imports, is lack-luster consumer demand. Higher pork prices-- from the high dollar, and the Safeguard mechanism, which restricts imports when a certain "trigger level" is reached--together with food safety concerns, are powerful forces weighing on Japanese consumer demand for imported pork. Currently, indicators are signaling an absence of a "run-up" in export orders in anticipation of the July 1 rescission of the Safeguard in Japan. However, two factors should stimulate Japanese demand, after Japanese stocks are worked down to more seasonally average levels; first, cheaper dollar. The exchange rate of the yen to the dollar peaked in April and continues downward. Secondly, Japanese import prices will decrease 24 percent on July 1. Moreover, hog cholera situation in the Netherlands continues, increasing European pork prices. Higher Europeans pork prices are likely to divert Danish product from the Japanese market, thus creating opportunities for U.S. pork. Lower-first quarter exports to Russia were another major factor in the revised 1997 export figure. January-March shipments to Russia were more than 27 percent below a year ago. Higher U.S. prices, particularly for lower value cuts, are the likely factor behind lower Russian imports. Russia appears to be filling its protein needs through higher imports of favorably priced U.S. poultry products. The current export forecast assumes that lower pork prices in the fourth quarter will make U.S. pork products relatively more attractive to importers of mid- and lower- valued cuts. Economic growth in Mexico--now running at about 7 percent--appears to be trickling down to middle class consumers, and affecting the composition of pork imported from the United States. In the first quarter of 1997, Mexico imported significantly less processed pork than in the same period last year. A greater proportion of first-quarter Mexican imports were fresh and frozen lower valued cuts. Consumers with more disposable income are likely to decrease consumption of sausage and other processed meat products and increase purchases of pork cuts. In fact, the unit value of U.S. pork exports to Mexico is down, compared to the first quarter of 1996, suggesting that importers are buying U.S. pork products to fill the demand of middle class consumers rather than to primarily fill HRI and upper-income pork demand. Broiler Production Increasing Production increases are beginning to accelerate with about 5 percent more broiler meat expected to be produced during June. First-quarter production was slightly below a year ago, the first year-over-year decline in quarterly meat production since 1980. Stronger increases in placements of birds in late May indicate stronger production increases are probable this summer. The broiler hatchery supply flock was nearly 6 percent larger on May 1, indicating large increases in placements of birds for growout are possible. During June the 12-city wholesale price for whole birds is expected to average 10 percent lower than last year. Prices for breast and leg quarters have also been lower than a year ago by about 5 and 25 percent, respectively, during early June, but are increasing from May. Increases in production during the second quarter and slow growth in exports have put pressure on domestic markets, especially for leg quarters. Feed costs considerably below a year ago will keep broiler returns positive, but below a year ago. Turkey Production Decreasing Turkey meat production is expected to be about the same as last year in the second quarter but lower production in the first and third quarters is expected to bring lower production for the year. This would be the first year-over-year decline in annual production since 1982. Net returns to turkey producers continue negative even with higher prices and considerably lower feed costs than a year ago. Positive net returns are expected when prices are above 70 cents per pound, which should occur in late summer or early fall. Relatively strong increases in poult placements (2 percent) during last fall did not result in a production increase during the first quarter. Placements for January-April have been below a year ago, indicating weaker production for May-September. If production is to increase in the fourth quarter, stronger poult placements will be necessary in June and July. Egg Prices Falling Egg demand was strong in all markets during 1996. Demand appears to have weakened considerably in recent months. Shell egg exports were about 17 percent lower during the first quarter of 1997 than a year ago. Increases in use of eggs by the egg breaking industry dropped below 10 percent in the second quarter. Domestic consumption was nearly unchanged in the first quarter from a year ago with retail prices 1-2 cents per dozen lower. Strong net returns to egg producers over the last year have encouraged increased production. April was the first month since August 1996 that net returns to egg producers were below 10 cents per dozen. Lower egg prices brought negative net returns for May and June. However, lower feed costs are expected to keep egg production profitable for 1997. Leland Southard (Coordinator), Milton Madison (Poultry), Dave Harvey (Poultry Trade), Ron Gustafson (Cattle), Shayle Shagam (Beef Trade), Mildred Haley (Pork Trade), Jim Miller (Dairy), Laverne Williams (Statistics). MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - Jun-96 Jun-97 Apr-97 May-97 Jun-97 /* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 12,945 12,570 2,096 2,204 2,158 Veal 177 165 28 26 25 Pork 8,493 8,311 1,446 1,338 1,335 Lamb 138 131 22 21 21 Total red meat 21,753 21,177 3,592 3,589 3,539 Broilers 13,181 13,475 2,314 2,300 2,275 Other chicken 255 257 45 45 45 Turkeys 2,648 2,610 450 450 475 Total poultry 16,084 16,343 2,808 2,795 2,795 Total meat & poultry 37,837 37,520 6,400 6,384 6,334 Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 18,560 18,309 3,060 3,208 3,135 Steers 9,355 9,032 1,513 1,666 1,671 Heifers 5,393 5,719 951 973 940 Beef Cows 1,950 1,729 289 278 251 Dairy Cows 1,515 1,488 246 227 213 Bulls and stags 347 341 61 63 60 Calves 836 761 129 117 112 Sheep 2,139 1,995 331 317 317 Hogs 45,852 44,072 7,727 7,106 6,925 Barrows & gilts 43,648 42,284 7,414 6,808 6,622 Sows 1,845 1,484 257 250 255 Broilers 3,769,566 3,798,590 650,130 640,000 650,000 Turkeys 139,812 135,454 23,445 23,000 24,000 Jun-96 Mar-97 Apr-97 May-97 Jun-97 /* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 701 694 691 694 696 Calves 214 215 218 224 225 Sheep 64 66 67 70 70 Hogs 186 188 188 189 189 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 307.4 261.7 290.4 285.3 NA Pork 381.3 386.6 404.7 440.3 NA Bellies 63.5 44.3 54.8 54.0 NA Hams 79.8 55.7 55.8 85.1 NA Total chicken 655.2 697.5 715.1 743.5 NA Turkey 587.4 446.4 496.5 548.3 NA Frozen eggs 11.4 11.5 8.5 8.5 NA /* Estimates LIVESTOCK PRICES Jun-96 Apr-97 May-97 Jun-97 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 61.37 67.66 67.36 63.80 Nebraska Direct 61.56 68.32 67.49 63.85 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 34.53 38.54 39.13 35.75 Utility boning 32.50 37.72 38.00 34.75 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 61.84 87.85 89.44 91.25 600-650 lb. 61.34 81.57 84.21 83.50 750-800 lb. 61.47 72.52 76.32 77.50 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 53.47 77.74 81.91 83.25 700-750 lb. 57.72 68.73 73.57 75.75 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 56.14 54.32 57.54 56.00 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 55.98 54.07 57.80 56.50 Sows 6 Markets 47.21 46.23 51.02 50.75 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) 30.16 Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 97.50 95.50 83.17 85.00 Ewes, Good 33.54 49.70 43.69 48.00 Feeder lambs, Choice 99.92 115.65 104.75 103.00 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES Jun-96 Apr-97 May-97 Jun-97 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 4.74 2.87 2.84 2.65 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 6.00 4.74 4.52 4.05 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 238.80 288.57 306.39 2.92 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 96.90 123.00 127.00 NA Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 92.30 117.00 118.00 NA /* Estimates WHOLESALE PRICES Jun-96 Apr-97 May-97 Jun-97 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 100.70 104.17 105.97 101.75 Choice 1-3 700-850# 100.69 103.56 105.72 101.50 Select 1-3 700-850# 92.02 98.47 99.00 95.30 Cutter Cow 58.34 68.33 68.25 63.00 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 79.60 100.20 93.86 87.40 Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 80.56 96.20 89.25 88.75 Hide & offal value 8.45 9.28 8.72 8.45 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 161.28 168.20 165.96 167.00 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 73.94 72.64 76.83 75.25 Loins, 14-18 lb. 115.73 117.16 125.68 117.00 Bellies, 12-14 lb. 72.64 80.54 82.59 78.00 Hams, 20-26 lb. 71.88 59.62 63.48 65.75 Trimmings, 72% fresh 66.30 59.31 66.75 65.75 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. down, Choice 201.25 192.78 194.75 189.00 55-65 lb., Choice 201.25 189.78 189.75 189.00 Broilers 12 City Avg. 65.52 59.77 58.53 59.00 Georgia dock 63.47 60.35 59.68 60.00 Northeast Breast, boneless 193.90 172.53 164.50 185.00 Breast, Ribs on 97.86 90.37 84.97 95.00 Legs, whole 59.47 48.62 48.16 48.00 Leg quarters 41.88 31.93 30.18 30.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 70.04 62.25 66.08 67.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 65.85 62.93 66.64 68.00 Drumsticks 24.62 35.28 29.57 24.00 Wings, full cut 30.57 37.74 32.57 29.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 82.37 79.15 72.85 70.00 New York 79.40 75.55 72.30 68.00 /* Estimate RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS May-96 Mar-97 Apr-97 May-97 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 276.6 276.1 279.0 280.3 Beef - All Fresh 249.2 254.5 253.4 254.9 Ground Beef 131.9 135.6 138.1 138.2 Rib roast 473.3 513.5 505.0 499.4 T-bone steak 582.1 564.0 583.1 593.2 Pork 213.6 228.9 226.5 229.0 Bacon 234.5 265.7 266.0 262.7 Chops 334.2 342.2 344.5 345.4 Picnic 118.6 125.1 124.2 128.3 Chicken - Composite 149.6 149.3 148.8 151.9 Whole, fresh 94.9 100.9 100.2 100.7 Breast - bone in 201.8 199.4 200.4 207.5 Leg quarter 123.4 123.1 121.5 122.1 Turkey; whole frozen 104.3 104.7 103.2 104.5 Eggs, Grade A, Large 102.1 105.6 108.1 100.2 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 156.6 160.0 160.2 160.1 All food 152.0 156.6 156.6 156.6 All meat 136.4 143.1 143.4 143.9 Beef & veal 131.3 135.8 136.2 136.9 Pork 142.1 153.6 153.6 154.3 Poultry 149.6 156.3 155.4 156.6 Dairy Products 137.6 146.1 145.7 145.4 Fluid milk & cream 137.7 145.8 144.7 144.9 Manufactured products 138.2 147.0 147.2 146.6 Price Spreads Cents/lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 26.2 20.5 18.9 21.8 Wholesale to retail 127.6 115.6 119.2 117.8 Farmers share (%) 44.0 51.0 51.0 50.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 29.1 39.4 34.0 33.1 Wholesale to retail 92.8 113.2 105.7 104.4 Farmers share (%) 43.0 33.0 38.0 40.0 Poultry and eggs Wholesale to retail Broilers 78.2 87.0 87.3 Retail to consumer Turkey 29.3 37.5 32.0 Eggs 22.9 19.3 29.9 PRODUCTION INDICATORS May-96 Mar-97 Apr-97 May-97 Cattle: On feed - 7 States, 1,000+ Hd 7,758 8,769 8,904 8,484 Net placements 1,242 1,632 1,228 1,560 Marketings 1,747 1,497 1,648 1,818 Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 570,660 591,898 583,986 591,820 Chicks hatched (000)/2 700,556 716,374 690,790 725,000 Hatching egg layers/1 50,150 51,453 52,112 52,955 Pullets placed (000) 6,776 6,439 6,122 NA Hvy-type hen slaughter 5,266 4,639 4,893 5,000 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 37,915 35,040 37,232 36,186 Poults placed (000) 29,668 27,607 28,180 28,500 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.)/2 445 465 445 453 Table egg layers, (000)/1 242,275 249,321 248,290 246,654 Table eggs/100 layers/1 71.3 72.0 72.6 71.1 Chicks hatched (000) 38,607 37,648 38,746 40,000 Lt.-type hen slaughter 8,431 9,405 11,021 10,500 ESTIMATED RETURNS Jun-96 Apr-97 May-97 Jun-97 /* Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 58.49 61.02 62.43 61.31 Selling price 61.37 67.66 67.36 63.80 Net margin 2.88 6.64 4.93 2.49 N. Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price /3 44.25 46.58 46.87 47.32 Selling price 55.98 54.07 57.80 56.50 Net margin 11.73 7.49 10.93 9.18 Broiler Wholesale cost 58.10 52.93 54.25 54.40 Wholesale price 65.52 59.77 58.53 59.00 Net margin 7.42 6.84 4.28 4.60 Turkey Wholesale cost 71.93 67.01 68.40 70.57 Wholesale price 67.10 62.22 65.90 68.00 Net margin -4.83 -4.79 -2.50 -2.57 Egg Wholesale cost 84.71 74.30 74.38 74.30 Wholesale price 82.37 79.15 72.85 70.00 Net margin -2.34 4.85 -1.53 -4.30 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* estimate U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Feb-97 Mar-97 Jan - Jan - Mar-96 Mar-97 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 23,136 39,538 114,518 112,176 New Zealand 37,876 62,474 149,517 144,198 Canada 58,149 59,252 135,672 174,971 Brazil 7,132 9,260 18,278 24,644 Argentina 9,886 10,552 41,129 30,584 Central America 8,498 7,726 36,152 24,802 Other 7,063 9,577 12,276 24,823 Total 151,740 198,378 507,543 536,199 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 76,807 82,765 266,018 233,789 Canada 21,530 21,330 71,631 63,445 Mexico 19,654 15,815 30,053 53,002 Korea, Rep. 21,304 12,141 46,818 62,533 Caribbean 1,211 1,285 3,027 3,375 Other 12,763 12,982 34,924 39,014 Total 153,269 146,317 452,470 455,158 Cattle Imports Mexico 65,802 42,826 159,001 162,820 Canada 100,298 126,649 446,614 331,810 Over 700 lbs. 87,697 105,122 387,116 288,291 500-700 lbs. 9,240 16,123 45,720 31,653 Total 166,100 169,481 605,648 494,637 Cattle Exports Mexico 19,162 13,550 12,632 51,720 Canada 2,798 3,932 8,786 10,342 Total 22,296 18,234 33,906 63,217 Lamb Imports Australia 2,339 3,524 7,478 8,518 New Zealand 2,366 3,581 5,609 8,340 Total 4,738 7,250 13,289 17,038 Mutton Imports 2,023 2,524 5,332 7,621 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Customs Service YTD imports under WTO 6/09/96 6/08/97 % Chg Canada 198,080 258,371 3043.8% TRQ Countries 401,939 414,843 321.0% Australia 159,991 168,935 559.0% New Zealand 192,329 193,489 60.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Feb-97 Mar-97 Jan - Jan - Mar-96 Mar-97 Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lb. Canada 32,160 32,327 100,473 103,490 Denmark 14,062 14,004 29,547 38,035 Poland 1,525 1,536 2,550 3,548 Hungary 634 688 1,621 2,064 Netherlands 598 440 2,453 2,008 Other 3,165 2,841 7,180 8,932 Total 52,144 51,836 143,823 158,077 Pork Exports Japan 25,396 33,318 113,443 83,747 Canada 8,174 9,889 24,552 27,171 Mexico 4,685 5,148 15,173 14,389 Caribbean 824 756 2,403 2,329 Other 19,999 19,993 65,907 64,533 Total 59,077 69,103 221,479 192,170 Hog Imports Head Canada 244,019 252,343 630,164 762,972 Under 110 lb 74,475 80,964 190,832 227,187 Total 244,019 252,343 630,315 763,055 Hog Exports Total 2,259 2,730 29,193 9,703 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 11,817 12,825 54,375 36,715 Mexico 19,368 18,907 52,385 55,597 Hong Kong 74,814 78,275 213,101 207,511 Singapore 3,986 2,864 13,159 9,556 Canada 7,824 9,500 18,234 23,516 Former USSR 160,745 179,018 465,937 524,489 Total 374,153 365,988 1,074,553 1,089,761 Turkey Exports Mexico 14,847 14,353 36,261 41,786 S. Korea 1,038 2,248 5,952 4,886 Hong Kong 12,039 11,190 2,322 28,462 Total 47,803 48,454 95,841 127,645 Shell Thousand dz. Egg Exports 10,234 7,395 29,553 24,593 Annual Forecasts 1995 1996 1997 1998 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 6,743 6,911 7,155 7,307 CPI-U, Annual % Change 3.0 2.7 2.7 3.0 Unemployment rate, % 5.4 5.1 5.1 5.3 3-Month T Bill,% 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.6 Production, million lb. Beef 25,115 25,419 25,187 24,800 Pork 17,811 17,085 17,094 18,325 Broilers 25,021 26,336 27,437 29,200 Turkeys 5,129 5,466 5,435 5,725 Total Red Meat & Poultry 74,070 75,303 76,081 78,913 Eggs, mil doz. 5,269 5,393 5,504 5,650 Milk 155,425 154,331 155,396 157,500 Commercial use (mf basis) 154,857 155,057 156,694 158,500 Net removals (mf basis) 2,102 92 500 900 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 67.5 67.7 66.7 64.7 Pork 52.5 49.1 47.6 50.2 Broilers 68.8 70.8 72.3 76.7 Turkeys 17.9 18.5 18.1 19.1 Total Red Meat & Poultry 210.3 209.2 207.3 213.3 Eggs, number 235.7 237.1 239.6 244.2 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 66.24 65.2 65-70 71-76 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt. 68.03 61.1 71-76 74-79 Bng Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 35.58 30.3 36-39 41-44 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cwt 42.35 53.4 54-58 51-55 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 56.38 61.2 58-62 58-62 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 66.35 66.5 65-70 62-66 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 72.85 88.2 77-83 72-78 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 12.74 14.74 12.9-13.7 12.9-13.8 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 11.83 13.39 11.6-12.4 11.9-12.7 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 1,821 1,877 1,915 2,140 Beef & veal imports 2,103 2,073 2,341 2,400 Pork exports 771 951 1,250 1,465 Pork imports 664 618 593 605 Broiler exports 3,894 4,420 4,840 5,025 Turkey exports 348 438 502 505 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, May 1997. Quarterly 1996/98 Forecasts QI'96 QII'96 QIII'96 QIV'96 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,814 6,885 6,930 7,009 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.8 3.8 2.3 3.2 Unemployment rate, % 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.3 3-Month T Bill,% 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 10-Year Bond,% 5.9 6.7 6.8 6.3 Production, million lb. Beef 6,303 6,642 6,390 6,084 Pork 4,389 4,104 4,143 4,449 Broilers 6,610 6,571 6,628 6,527 Turkeys 1,270 1,378 1,415 1,403 Total Meat 18,847 18,931 18,807 18,717 Eggs, mil doz. 1,330 1,320 1,352 1,392 Milk (mf basis) 39,053 39,638 37,674 37,966 Commercial use 37,671 39,833 38,749 38,804 Net removals 19 29 19 25 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 17.0 17.5 17.0 16.2 Pork 12.6 11.6 12.0 12.9 Broilers 17.6 18.0 18.1 17.1 Turkeys 3.7 3.9 4.6 6.2 Total Meat 51.8 51.9 52.5 53.0 Eggs, number 58.8 58.0 59.1 61.2 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 63.06 60.26 67.13 70.39 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 58.11 56.87 63.20 66.15 Brk Cows,S. Falls 32.52 30.37 31.74 26.68 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 46.23 54.82 57.75 54.75 Broiler,12 City 56.22 61.07 64.22 63.46 Turkeys, Eastern 64.80 65.40 64.90 70.90 Eggs, New York 89.60 80.50 85.90 96.70 Milk, all at plant 13.83 14.27 15.80 15.07 Milk, M-W 12.67 13.59 14.93 12.36 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 452 544 436 445 Beef/veal imports 508 526 555 484 Pork exports 221 313 180 237 Pork imports 144 155 154 165 Broiler exports 1,075 1,057 1,121 1,167 Turkey exports 96 93 124 125 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, May 1997. QI'97 QII'97 QIII'97 QIV'97 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 7,089 7,133 7,177 7,218 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 2.4 2.5 2.8 3.0 Unemployment rate, % 5.3 5.0 5.1 5.1 3-Month T Bill,% 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.5 10-Year Bond,% 6.6 6.8 6.8 6.8 Production, million lb. Beef 6,112 6,500 6,500 6,075 Pork 4,194 4,075 4,275 4,550 Broilers 6,587 6,900 7,000 6,950 Turkeys 1,235 1,375 1,400 1,425 Total Meat 18,384 19,079 19,388 19,231 Eggs, mil doz. 1,344 1,335 1,400 1,425 Milk (mf basis) 38,896 40,300 38,200 38,000 Commercial use 38,494 39,800 39,200 39,200 Net removals 100 200 100 100 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.2 17.3 17.2 16.0 Pork 11.8 11.4 11.9 12.4 Broilers 17.5 18.5 18.5 17.8 Turkeys 3.5 3.9 4.5 6.2 Total Meat 49.6 51.8 52.8 53.1 Eggs, number 58.8 58.0 61.0 61.9 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 66.4 64-69 63-69 68-74 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 69.4 72-78 71-77 73-79 Brk Cows,S. Falls 32.0 35-38 38-42 39-43 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 51.1 55-58 57-61 54-58 Broiler,12 City 60.0 57-62 60-64 57-61 Turkeys, Eastern 58.9 63-68 67-73 72-78 Eggs, New York 84.9 70-75 77-83 80-86 Milk, all at plant 13.5 12.6-13.3 12.2-13.2 13.6-14.6 Milk, M-W 12.3 10.7-11.4 11.2-12.2 12.6-13.6 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 455.0 455 510 495 Beef/veal imports 536.0 585 640 580 Pork exports 192.0 260 368 430 Pork imports 158.0 140 135 160 Broiler exports 1089.8 1,125 1,275 1,350 Turkey exports 127.6 120 119 135 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, May 1997. QI'97 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 7,256 CPI-U, Ann. % Change 3.1 Unemployment rate, % 5.2 3-Month T Bill,% 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 6.8 Production, million lb. Beef 6,025 Pork 4,350 Broilers 7,100 Turkeys 1,300 Total Meat 19,007 Eggs, mil doz. 1,375 Milk (mf basis) 39,100 Commercial use 38,600 Net removals 200 Consumption, Retail lb Beef 16.1 Pork 12.1 Broilers 19.1 Turkeys 4.0 Total Meat 52.0 Eggs, number 59.7 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 71-73 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 74-77 Brk Cows,S. Falls 41-43 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 51-53 Broiler,12 City 57-59 Turkeys, Eastern 59-61 Eggs, New York 74-77 Milk, all at plant 13.6-14.1 Milk, M-W 12.2-12.6 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef/veal exports 475 Beef/veal imports 620 Pork exports 315 Pork imports 150 Broiler exports 1,100 Turkey exports 120 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, May 1997. U.S. dairy situation at a glance Unit 1994 1995 1996 Milk production: Production (20 States) Mil. lb. 129819 131780 131422 Milk cow (20 States) Thou. 7853 7862 93688 Milk per cow (20 States) Lb. 16531 16762 16833 Production (U.S. est.) Mil. lb. 153664 155424 154268 Milk prices: All milk Dol./cwt 12.97 12.74 14.88 Milk eligible for fluid use Dol./cwt 13.03 12.78 14.95 Manufacturing grade milk Dol./cwt 11.83 11.78 13.38 Minnesota-Wisconsin (3.5% fat) Dol./cwt 12.00 11.83 13.39 Slaughter Cow, Wisc: Dol./cwt 44.92 38.11 33.00 Wholesale prices: Grade A butter Ct/lb 67.37 75.59 100.35 American cheese, WI assembly pt. 40-pound blocks Ct/lb 131.45 132.77 149.14 Barrels Ct/lb NA NA 141.72 Nonfat dry milk, Central States Ct/lb 107.93 108.58 122.16 Retail prices (BLS): Consumer Price Index 1982-84=100 148.2 152.4 156.9 All food 1982-84=100 144.3 148.4 153.3 Dairy products 1982-84=100 131.7 132.8 142.1 Fluid milk and cream 1982-84=100 132.2 132.3 142.4 Manufactured products 1982-84=100 131.9 134.0 142.4 Dairy product output: Butter Mil. lb 1296 1264 1174 American cheese Mil. lb 2974 3131 3281 Other-than-American cheese Mil. lb 3760 3786 3937 Frozen products 1/ Mil. gal. 1243 1230 1241 All products (milkfat basis 2/) Mil. lb 95061 95633 95014 Nonfat dry milk Mil. lb 1231 1233 1062 Beginning stocks: Commercial butter Mil. lb 15 12 16 Commercial American cheese Mil. lb 357 309 307 Other cheese Mil. lb 107 127 105 Manufacturers' nonfat dry milk Mil. lb 80 103 71 All commercial (milkfat basis) Mil. lb 4549 4263 4099 All commercial (skim solids basis) Mil. lb 5656 5712 5037 All Government (milkfat basis) Mil. lb 5020 1497 69 All Government (skim solids basis) Mil. lb 161 341 172 Commercial disappearance: Butter Mil. lb 1097 1186 1180 American cheese Mil. lb 3031 3149 3230 Other-than-American cheese Mil. lb 4055 4126 4243 Nonfat dry milk Mil. lb 918 923 1008 All products (milkfat basis 2/) Mil. lb 150323 154842 154992 USDA net removals: Butter Mil. lb 204 78 0 Cheese Mil. lb 7 6 5 Nonfat dry milk Mil. lb 290 344 58 All products (milkfat basis 2/) Mil. lb 4804 2106 92 All products (skim solids basis 2/) Mil. lb 3724 4374 767 Imports (milkfat basis 2/) Mil. lb 2880 2936 2911 International market prices: Butter $/metric ton 1403.63 2250.54 1832.95 Nonfat dry milk $/metric ton 1660.22 2143.32 1978.57 1/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, and sherbert. 2/ Milk equivalent. NA = Not Available. Dec-95 Jan-96 Feb-96 Mar-96 Milk production: Production (22 States) 10881 11103 10549 11487 Milk cow (22 States) 7851 7846 7828 7822 Milk per cow (22 States) 1386 1415 1348 1469 Production (U.S. est.) 12806 13088 12424 13530 Milk prices: All milk 13.90 14.10 13.90 13.80 Milk eligible for fluid use 14.00 14.20 14.00 13.90 Manufacturing grade milk 12.90 12.80 12.60 12.60 Minnesota-Wisconsin (3.5% fat) 12.91 12.73 12.59 12.70 Slaughter Cow, Wisc: 32.31 34.15 35.00 33.63 Wholesale prices: Grade A butter 74.37 75.42 66.42 65.50 American cheese, WI assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 144.56 139.29 139.33 140.87 Barrels 135.38 133.48 134.03 135.19 Nonfat dry milk, Central States 117.61 114.85 110.84 110.08 Retail prices (BLS): Consumer Price Index 153.5 154.4 154.9 155.7 All food 149.9 151.0 150.8 151.6 Dairy products 135.0 136.3 137.2 136.7 Fluid milk and cream 134.5 136.8 137.3 137.4 Manufactured products 136.2 136.5 137.7 136.7 Dairy product output: Butter 114 132 115 112 American cheese 280 276 267 285 Other-than-American cheese 338 314 309 341 Frozen products 1/ 70 83 91 104 All products (milkfat basis 2/) 7833 8187 7772 8296 Nonfat dry milk 103 97 93 105 Beginning stocks: Commercial butter 11 16 22 30 Commercial American cheese 298 307 346 354 Other cheese 96 105 124 128 Manufacturers' nonfat dry milk 50 71 72 80 All commercial (milkfat basis) 3859 4099 4750 5055 All commercial (skim solids basis) 4631 5037 5639 5882 All Government (milkfat basis) 105 69 80 82 All Government (skim solids basis) 189 172 165 122 Commercial disappearance: Butter 109 128 107 95 American cheese 272 237 259 284 Other-than-American cheese 367 308 321 347 Nonfat dry milk 76 94 81 79 All products (milkfat basis 2/) 12768 12458 12145 13056 USDA net removals: Butter 0 0 0 0 Cheese 0 0 0 0 Nonfat dry milk 7 2 4 8 All products (milkfat basis 2/) 7 4 5 11 All products (skim solids basis 2/) 89 32 51 102 Imports (milkfat basis 2/) 343 151 150 178 International market prices: Butter 2563 2404 2113 2063 Nonfat dry milk 2238 2229 2138 2074 1/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, and sherbert. 2/ Milk equivalent. NA = Not Available. Apr-96 May-96 Jun-96 Jul-96 Milk production: Production (22 States) 11265 11560 10926 10944 Milk cow (22 States) 7818 7816 7818 7815 Milk per cow (22 States) 1441 1479 1398 1400 Production (U.S. est.) 13237 13572 12812 12801 Milk prices: All milk 13.90 14.30 14.80 15.40 Milk eligible for fluid use 13.90 14.30 14.90 15.50 Manufacturing grade milk 12.90 13.40 13.60 14.00 Minnesota-Wisconsin (3.5% fat) 13.09 13.77 13.92 14.49 Slaughter Cow, Wisc: 32.69 34.00 33.31 34.25 Wholesale prices: Grade A butter 68.96 87.79 129.25 145.27 American cheese, WI assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 145.10 151.75 151.50 158.18 Barrels 139.77 146.16 145.75 152.31 Nonfat dry milk, Central States 110.32 116.00 129.75 132.57 Retail prices (BLS): Consumer Price Index 156.3 156.6 156.7 157.0 All food 152.3 152.0 152.6 153.2 Dairy products 137.0 137.6 139.8 142.0 Fluid milk and cream 137.4 137.7 140.7 142.4 Manufactured products 137.2 138.2 139.5 142.2 Dairy product output: Butter 109 101 73 75 American cheese 278 302 279 269 Other-than-American cheese 328 334 317 313 Frozen products 1/ 112 121 129 132 All products (milkfat basis 2/) 8289 8607 7835 7842 Nonfat dry milk 117 114 94 79 Beginning stocks: Commercial butter 47 37 33 29 Commercial American cheese 356 377 390 393 Other cheese 142 149 152 150 Manufacturers' nonfat dry milk 98 100 86 82 All commercial (milkfat basis) 5570 5606 5653 5566 All commercial (skim solids basis) 6269 6577 6575 6528 All Government (milkfat basis) 34 60 25 21 All Government (skim solids basis) 115 122 20 20 Commercial disappearance: Butter 120 105 77 73 American cheese 259 289 276 267 Other-than-American cheese 341 354 342 350 Nonfat dry milk 107 125 92 81 All products (milkfat basis 2/) 13260 13588 12968 12934 USDA net removals: Butter 0 0 0 0 Cheese 0 0 1 1 Nonfat dry milk 8 4 7 5 All products (milkfat basis 2/) 12 10 7 8 All products (skim solids basis 2/) 107 52 89 65 Imports (milkfat basis 2/) 192 200 199 244 International market prices: Butter 2047 1764 1726 1695 Nonfat dry milk 2006 1955 1921 1905 1/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, and sherbert. 2/ Milk equivalent. NA = Not Available. Milk production: Aug-96 Sep-96 Oct-96 Nov-96 Production (22 States) 10786 10459 10831 10499 Milk cow (22 States) 7802 7795 7788 7775 Milk per cow (22 States) 1382 1342 1391 1350 Production (U.S. est.) 12622 12235 12719 12318 Milk prices: All milk 15.90 16.50 16.40 15.20 Milk eligible for fluid use 16.00 16.60 16.40 15.30 Manufacturing grade milk 14.60 15.30 14.60 12.40 Minnesota-Wisconsin (3.5% fat) 14.94 15.37 14.13 11.61 Slaughter Cow, Wisc: 34.50 32.81 32.25 29.81 Wholesale prices: Grade A butter 145.50 145.50 128.64 74.12 American cheese, WI assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 167.56 173.90 162.26 133.93 Barrels 160.50 168.09 148.18 121.55 Nonfat dry milk, Central States 130.91 131.90 131.55 126.59 Retail prices (BLS): Consumer Price Index 157.3 157.8 158.3 158.6 All food 153.7 154.6 155.4 155.9 Dairy products 144.6 146.7 149.3 149.3 Fluid milk and cream 144.4 145.6 149.0 150.5 Manufactured products 145.5 148.5 150.2 148.8 Dairy product output: Butter 73 81 97 95 American cheese 262 254 266 262 Other-than-American cheese 327 330 346 333 Frozen products 1/ 119 101 93 77 All products (milkfat basis 2/) 7669 7440 7746 7371 Nonfat dry milk 61 56 66 77 Beginning stocks: Commercial butter 31 26 21 20 Commercial American cheese 398 381 372 379 Other cheese 139 126 123 115 Manufacturers' nonfat dry milk 77 66 50 47 All commercial (milkfat basis) 5543 5183 4936 4890 All commercial (skim solids basis) 6371 5940 5618 5535 All Government (milkfat basis) 21 24 17 11 All Government (skim solids basis) 9 11 10 9 Commercial disappearance: Butter 78 87 97 98 American cheese 282 266 263 275 Other-than-American cheese 370 363 387 373 Nonfat dry milk 69 71 66 70 All products (milkfat basis 2/) 13147 12651 12941 12726 USDA net removals: Butter 0 0 0 0 Cheese 0 0 0 0 Nonfat dry milk 4 1 3 5 All products (milkfat basis 2/) 7 4 6 9 All products (skim solids basis 2/) 53 18 43 71 Imports (milkfat basis 2/) 298 295 308 334 International market prices: Butter 1744 1713 1550 1513 Nonfat dry milk 1863 1850 1918 1930 1/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, and sherbert. 2/ Milk equivalent. NA = Not Available. Dec-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 Mar-97 Milk production: Production (22 States) 11013 11163 10309 11611 Milk cow (22 States) 7765 7757 7743 7736 Milk per cow (22 States) 1418 1439 1331 1501 Production (U.S. est.) 12910 13129 12120 13646 Milk prices: All milk 14.30 13.40 13.50 13.50 Milk eligible for fluid use 14.40 13.40 13.50 13.60 Manufacturing grade milk 11.80 12.10 12.40 12.40 Minnesota-Wisconsin (3.5% fat) 11.34 11.94 12.46 12.49 Slaughter Cow, Wisc: 29.63 32.80 35.06 38.94 Wholesale prices: Grade A butter 71.85 81.89 98.38 106.25 American cheese, WI assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 125.98 127.90 132.25 133.95 Barrels 115.63 123.66 127.54 126.52 Nonfat dry milk, Central States 120.55 113.94 114.91 115.78 Retail prices (BLS): Consumer Price Index 158.6 159.1 159.6 160.0 All food 156.3 156.5 156.5 156.6 Dairy products 148.6 147.8 146.2 146.1 Fluid milk and cream 149.9 148.9 146.1 145.8 Manufactured products 147.9 147.4 147.0 147.0 Dairy product output: Butter 111 124 108 104 American cheese 280 279 267 285 Other-than-American cheese 344 317 308 353 Frozen products 1/ 78 85 90 108 All products (milkfat basis 2/) 7960 8099 7706 8342 Nonfat dry milk 102 97 92 109 Beginning stocks: Commercial butter 17 13 21 24 Commercial American cheese 370 380 381 378 Other cheese 111 107 117 115 Manufacturers' nonfat dry milk 49 71 75 72 All commercial (milkfat basis) 4684 4704 4975 4970 All commercial (skim solids basis) 5395 5753 5929 5815 All Government (milkfat basis) 9 10 8 13 All Government (skim solids basis) 9 7 8 8 Commercial disappearance: Butter 115 117 105 101 American cheese 274 278 271 273 Other-than-American cheese 385 322 327 368 Nonfat dry milk 74 84 80 82 All products (milkfat basis 2/) 13118 12893 12160 13461 USDA net removals: Butter 0 1 1 1 Cheese 0 1 1 1 Nonfat dry milk 6 10 15 18 All products (milkfat basis 2/) 10 29 37 33 All products (skim solids basis 2/) 83 127 192 220 Imports (milkfat basis 2/) 363 172 171 229 International market prices: Butter 1665 1648 1738 1763 Nonfat dry milk 1954 1917 1888 1849 1/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, and sherbert. 2/ Milk equivalent. NA = Not Available. Apr-97 May-97 Milk production: Production (22 States) 11452 11798 Milk cow (22 States) 7731 7732 Milk per cow (22 States) 1481 1526 Production (U.S. est.) 13394 13795 Milk prices: All milk 13.40 13.10 Milk eligible for fluid use 13.40 13.10 Manufacturing grade milk 11.70 11.20 Minnesota-Wisconsin (3.5% fat) 11.44 10.70 Slaughter Cow, Wisc: 40.03 40.50 Wholesale prices: Grade A butter 95.58 86.11 American cheese, WI assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 125.61 116.48 Barrels 121.30 114.33 Nonfat dry milk, Central States 114.40 109.83 Retail prices (BLS): Consumer Price Index 160.2 160.1 All food 156.6 156.6 Dairy products 145.7 145.4 Fluid milk and cream 144.7 144.9 Manufactured products 147.2 146.6 Dairy product output: Butter 117 NA American cheese 281 NA Other-than-American cheese 317 NA Frozen products 1/ 110 NA All products (milkfat basis 2/) 8461 NA Nonfat dry milk 120 NA Beginning stocks: Commercial butter 26 41 Commercial American cheese 392 423 Other cheese 125 129 Manufacturers' nonfat dry milk 81 118 All commercial (milkfat basis) 5243 5875 All commercial (skim solids basis) 6180 6950 All Government (milkfat basis) 17 43 All Government (skim solids basis) 12 13 Commercial disappearance: Butter NA NA American cheese NA NA Other-than-American cheese NA NA Nonfat dry milk NA NA All products (milkfat basis 2/) NA NA USDA net removals: Butter 2 3 Cheese 1 1 Nonfat dry milk 20 20 All products (milkfat basis 2/) 55 83 All products (skim solids basis 2/) 245 252 Imports (milkfat basis 2/) NA NA International market prices: Butter 1675 1725 Nonfat dry milk 1749 1725 1/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, and sherbert. 2/ Milk equivalent. NA = Not Available. U.S. milk production and related data Unit 1995 1996 Milk cows Thou. 9458 9351 Milk per cow Lb. 16433 16505 Milk production Mil. lb. 155425 154331 Concentrate ration Dol./cwt. 7.88 9.3 Milk-feed price ratio Dol./cwt. 1.63 1.6 1995 ----------------------------------- Unit 2nd 2nd 3rd 4th Milk cows Thou. 9473 9473 9462 9428 Milk per cow Lb. 4276 4276 4040 4003 Milk production Mil. lb. 40510 40510 38231 37740 Concentrate ration Dol./cwt. 7.62 7.62 7.82 8.24 Milk-feed price ratio Dol./cwt. 1.6 1.6 1.59 1.67 ----------------------------------- 1996 ----------------------------------- Unit 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Milk cows Thou. 9397 9369 9338 9300 Milk per cow Lb. 4156 4231 4035 4083 Milk production Mil. lb. 39053 39638 37674 37966 Concentrate ration Dol./cwt. 8.83 9.51 9.7 9.16 Milk-feed price ratio Dol./cwt. 1.58 1.51 1.64 1.67 ----------------------------------- 1997 --------- 1st Milk cows Thou. 9265 Milk per cow Lb. 4198 Milk production Mil. lb. 38896 Concentrate ration Dol./cwt. 8.79 Milk-feed price ratio Dol./cwt. 1.53 --------- Milk used and marketed by farmers, 1989-96 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Billion pounds Used on farms where produced Billion pounds Used on farms where produced Fed to calves 1/ 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 As fluid milk or cream 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 Total on-farm use 3/ 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 Milk marketed by farmers Sold to plant and dealers Fluid grade 128.1 133.2 134.6 137.6 140.4 Manufacturing grade 12.7 11.6 10.1 10.4 7.3 Sold directly to consumers 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Total milk marketed 3/ 141.8 145.7 145.7 149 148.7 Total milk production 1/ 143.9 147.7 147.7 150.9 150.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 2/ Includes farm-churned butter. 3/ May not add due to rounding. 4/ By producers who sell only milk from their herds. Also includes milk produced by institutional herds. ----------------------------------------------------------- Item 1994 1995 5 1996 5/ ----------------------------------------------------------- Used on farms where produced Fed to calves 1/ 1.3 1.2 1.2 As fluid milk or cream 0.4 0.3 0.3 Total on-farm use 3/ 1.7 1.6 1.5 Milk marketed by farmers Sold to plant and dealers Fluid grade 143.4 144.9 145.5 Manufacturing grade 7.5 7.6 6.0 Sold directly to consumers 1.1 1.3 1.3 Total milk marketed 3/ 152 153.8 152.8 Total milk production 1/ 153.7 155.4 154.3 ----------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Excludes milk sucked by calves. 2/ Includes farm-churned butter. 3/ May not add due to rounding. 4/ By producers who sell only milk from their herds. Also includes milk produced by institutional herds. 5/ Preliminary Fluid milk sales by product, 1970-96 Plain Flavored Plain Plain Flavored Total Year whole whole lowfat skim lowfat and beverage milk milk milk milk skim milk Buttermilk milk Million pounds 1970 41,363 1,144 6,082 2,368 611 1,130 52,698 1971 41,042 1,287 7,022 2,552 538 1,153 53,595 1972 40,029 1,484 8,207 2,599 533 1,131 53,981 1973 38,473 1,549 9,100 2,921 571 1,065 53,679 1974 36,764 1,440 9,763 2,959 561 988 52,476 1975 36,188 1,366 11,468 2,480 719 1,011 53,232 1976 35,241 1,475 12,431 2,524 864 1,021 53,556 1977 34,036 1,446 13,426 2,617 1,062 1,007 53,594 1978 33,235 1,359 14,250 2,543 1,097 983 53,467 1979 32,480 1,236 15,043 2,604 1,129 939 53,431 1980 31,253 1,075 15,918 2,636 1,197 927 53,006 1981 30,397 843 16,662 2,583 1,288 926 52,699 1982 29,350 710 17,038 2,449 1,283 950 51,780 1983 28,871 749 17,638 2,474 1,374 1,006 52,112 1984 28,204 907 18,525 2,726 1,409 1,020 52,791 1985 27,760 882 19,812 3,009 1,430 1,046 53,939 1986 26,446 851 21,156 3,236 1,516 1,017 54,222 1987 25,622 829 21,722 3,403 1,607 1,039 54,222 1988 24,423 807 21,974 3,936 1,612 995 53,747 1989 22,743 767 23,769 4,988 1,606 907 54,780 1990 21,348 692 24,525 5,706 1,658 879 54,808 1991 20,847 675 25,133 6,023 1,726 858 55,262 1992 20,263 692 25,309 6,378 1,751 811 55,204 1993 19,535 693 24,920 6,871 1,783 783 54,585 1994 19,407 708 24,972 7,485 1,859 768 55,199 1995 18,734 707 24,295 8,391 1,921 742 54,790 1996 18,825 704 24,176 8,932 2,052 716 55,405 Half Sour Total Total and Light Heavy cream cream all half cream cream and dip products Eggnog Yogurt products Million pounds 1970 591 76 111 222 1,000 61 169 53,928 1971 557 67 113 246 983 74 225 54,876 1972 540 60 111 264 975 103 270 55,331 1973 554 80 120 272 1,026 80 290 55,075 1974 522 85 116 310 1,033 81 310 53,899 1975 514 87 119 350 1,070 76 425 54,803 1976 530 76 129 350 1,085 87 465 55,193 1977 536 68 126 364 1,094 94 515 55,297 1978 537 70 123 374 1,104 94 545 55,210 1979 543 66 139 395 1,143 94 550 55,218 1980 551 55 159 408 1,173 95 570 54,844 1981 568 56 166 424 1,214 100 560 54,573 1982 569 62 172 451 1,254 104 600 53,738 1983 599 67 196 484 1,346 112 740 54,310 1984 656 74 221 523 1,474 116 840 55,221 1985 714 85 243 544 1,586 121 940 56,586 1986 759 103 260 565 1,687 121 1,000 57,030 1987 754 103 271 588 1,716 124 1,038 57,100 1988 744 99 290 602 1,735 128 1,090 56,700 1989 766 101 317 620 1,804 124 1,028 57,736 1990 740 88 325 625 1,778 123 997 57,706 1991 771 79 318 661 1,829 111 1,063 58,265 1992 806 88 336 694 1,924 115 1,081 58,324 1993 824 91 351 697 1,963 108 1,102 57,758 1994 821 85 373 717 1,996 109 1,216 58,520 1995 834 95 404 770 2,103 112 1,333 58,338 1996 882 106 453 768 2,209 100 1,284 58,998 Production and commercial use of selected dairy products Change from: 1996 1995 1986-95 avg. Mil. lb. Percent Production: Butter 1,174.5 -7.1 -7.4 Cheese 7,217.5 +4.3 +19.2 American 3,280.8 +4.8 +14.7 Italian 2,812.4 +5.2 +26.4 Miscellaneous 1,124.3 +1.2 +16.3 Cottage cheese 690.3 -2.9 -17.4 Creamed 360.4 -6.4 -32.1 Lowfat 329.9 +1.2 +8.4 Canned milk 463.6 -8.4 -16.6 Nonfat dry milk 1,061.8 -13.9 +3.7 Dry whole milk 134.4 -21.6 -13.8 Ice cream (Mil. gal.) 825.2 +0.3 -10.0 Ice milk (Mil. gal.) 366.1 +2.6 +6.5 Commercial use: Butter 1,179.8 -0.5 +21.6 American cheese 3,229.7 +2.6 +16.8 Other cheese 4,242.9 +2.8 +22.4 Nonfat dry milk 1,008.2 +9.1 +41.0 Canned milk 480.9 -3.1 -12.8 1/ Hard only. Dairy products: Per capita consumption, United States, 1975-96 1/ Evaporated and Cheese condensed milk ---------------------------- ----------------------- Fluid American Other Cottage Bulk Year milk Canned, Bulk, and and Butter whole whole canned, cream 2/ skim Pounds 1975 261 4.7 8.4 6.1 4.7 3.9 1.4 3.6 1976 260 4.3 9 6.7 4.7 3.7 1.3 3.6 1977 258 4.3 9.3 6.8 4.7 3.2 1.1 3.9 1978 254 4.4 9.6 7.4 4.7 3.1 1.0 3.5 1979 251 4.5 9.6 7.6 4.5 3.0 1.1 3.3 1980 246 4.5 9.6 7.9 4.5 2.8 1.0 3.3 1981 242 4.2 10.2 8.0 4.3 2.9 1.2 3.2 1982 236 4.4 11.3 8.6 4.2 2.7 1.3 3.0 1983 236 4.9 11.6 8.9 4.1 2.7 1.1 3.2 1984 238 4.9 11.9 9.6 4.1 2.4 1.3 3.7 1985 241 4.9 12.2 10.4 4.1 2.2 1.4 3.8 1986 240 4.6 12.1 11.0 4.1 2.2 1.4 4.3 1987 239 4.7 12.4 11.7 3.9 2.2 1.5 4.2 1988 235 4.5 11.5 12.2 3.9 2.1 1.4 4.2 1989 236 4.4 11 12.8 3.6 2 1.1 4.7 1990 234 4.4 11.1 13.5 3.4 2.2 1.0 4.8 1991 233 4.4 11.1 13.9 3.3 2.1 1.1 5.0 1992 231 4.4 11.3 14.7 3.1 2.1 1.1 5.2 1993 226 4.7 11.4 14.8 2.9 1.9 1.1 5.2 1994 226 4.8 11.5 15.3 2.8 1.8 0.8 5.5 1995 5/ 223 4.5 11.8 15.4 2.7 1.5 0.8 4.5 1996 6/ 224 4.3 12 15.7 2.6 1.5 0.8 4.1 ----------------------------------- ---------------------------------- Other frozen Dry Dry Ice Ice Sherbet dairy whole Nonfat butter Dry cream milk products milk dry milk milk whey 4/ Pounds 1975 18.5 7.7 1.5 1 0.1 3.3 0.2 2.2 1976 17.9 7.3 1.5 0.8 0.2 3.5 0.2 2.4 1977 17.5 7.7 1.5 0.7 0.2 3.3 0.3 2.4 1978 17.4 7.7 1.4 0.8 0.3 3.1 0.2 2.4 1979 17.1 7.3 1.3 0.6 0.3 3.3 0.2 2.7 1980 17.5 7.1 1.3 0.3 0.3 3 0.2 2.7 1981 17.4 7 1.3 0.6 0.4 2.1 0.2 2.7 1982 17.6 6.6 1.3 0.6 0.4 2.1 0.2 2.9 1983 18.1 6.9 1.3 0.6 0.4 2.2 0.2 3.1 1984 18.2 7 1.3 0.6 0.4 2.5 0.2 3.2 1985 18.1 6.9 1.3 1.3 0.4 2.3 0.2 3.5 1986 18.4 7.2 1.3 0.9 0.5 2.4 0.2 3.7 1987 18.4 7.4 1.3 1 0.5 2.5 0.2 3.6 1988 17.3 8 1.3 1 0.6 2.6 0.2 3.5 1989 16.1 8.4 1.3 2.8 0.5 2.1 0.2 3.5 1990 15.8 7.7 1.2 3.6 0.6 2.9 0.2 3.7 1991 16.3 7.4 1.1 4.3 0.4 2.6 0.2 3.6 1992 16.3 7.1 1.2 4.4 0.5 2.8 0.2 3.8 1993 16.1 6.9 1.3 5 0.4 2.5 0.2 3.8 1994 16.1 7.6 1.4 4.9 0.4 3.5 0.2 3.6 1995 5/ 15.7 7.5 1.3 4.9 0.4 3.5 0.2 3.4 1996 6/ 15.9 7.6 1.3 3.9 0.4 3.8 0.2 3.5 1/ Domestic disappearance divided by total population including military overseas (resident population for fluid products). 2/ Product weight of beverage milks, fluid creams, egg nog, and yogurt sold or consumed on farms. 3/ Includes mellorine. May not be comparable across time. 4/ Includes modified whey products. 5/ Preliminary. 6/ Projected. Per capita consumption of selected cheese varieties, 1970-96 1/ American Cheddar other 2/ Total 1970 5.79 1.22 7.02 1971 5.94 1.42 7.35 1972 6.05 1.67 7.71 1973 6.10 1.76 7.86 1974 6.32 2.16 8.48 1975 6.04 2.13 8.17 1976 6.45 2.46 8.91 1977 6.80 2.43 9.23 1978 6.94 2.61 9.55 1979 6.93 2.69 9.62 1980 6.89 2.76 9.65 1981 7.03 3.14 10.17 1982 8.72 2.61 11.34 1983 9.11 2.51 11.63 1984 9.53 2.32 11.85 1985 9.76 2.42 12.19 1986 9.76 2.36 12.12 1987 10.61 1.80 12.41 1988 9.52 1.98 11.50 1989 9.17 1.86 11.03 1990 9.04 2.09 11.14 1991 9.05 2.02 11.07 1992 9.20 2.13 11.32 1993 9.13 2.28 11.41 1994 9.11 2.44 11.54 1995 4/ 9.13 2.70 11.83 1996 4/ 9.21 2.79 12.00 Italian ------------------------------------------------------------------- Provolone Romano Parmesan Mozzarella Ricotta Other Total Pounds 1970 0.23 0.15 0.17 1.19 0.24 0.08 2.06 1971 0.22 0.14 0.20 1.39 0.28 0.07 2.30 1972 0.24 0.17 0.23 1.58 0.31 0.08 2.61 1973 0.27 0.16 0.18 1.77 0.34 0.09 2.81 1974 0.27 0.15 0.25 1.86 0.33 0.09 2.96 1975 0.28 0.22 0.17 2.12 0.38 0.07 3.24 1976 0.32 0.17 0.28 2.32 0.41 0.08 3.56 1977 0.35 0.15 0.26 2.47 0.41 0.09 3.73 1978 0.36 0.19 0.28 2.69 0.44 0.11 4.07 1979 0.40 0.16 0.32 2.81 0.46 0.08 4.24 1980 0.42 0.15 0.28 3.03 0.47 0.10 4.44 1981 0.45 0.14 0.30 2.98 0.49 0.09 4.45 1982 0.47 0.17 0.32 3.29 0.47 0.12 4.84 1983 0.50 0.16 0.32 3.68 0.54 0.09 5.28 1984 0.54 0.17 0.36 4.03 0.58 0.09 5.77 1985 0.57 0.21 0.38 4.63 0.60 0.08 6.46 1986 0.57 0.16 0.33 5.19 0.63 0.10 6.99 1987 0.61 0.23 0.42 5.62 0.68 0.08 7.63 1988 0.61 0.19 0.49 6.01 0.73 0.11 8.13 1989 0.61 0.20 0.42 6.44 0.75 0.08 8.50 1990 0.63 0.14 0.43 6.93 0.79 0.06 8.99 1991 0.62 0.17 0.46 7.22 0.84 0.06 9.36 1992 0.65 0.14 0.53 7.71 0.88 0.05 9.96 1993 0.68 0.13 0.50 7.55 0.88 0.08 9.82 1994 0.71 0.15 0.45 7.93 0.91 0.13 10.29 1995 4/ 0.70 0.16 0.39 8.07 0.91 0.16 10.40 1996 4/ 0.78 0.16 0.29 8.47 0.95 0.13 10.79 Miscellaneous Processed ---------------------------------------------------------- -------- Cream and Swiss 3/ Munster Neufchatel Blue 5/ Other Total Total Cheese Pounds 1970 0.89 0.17 0.61 0.15 0.37 2.29 11.37 3.33 1971 0.94 0.19 0.62 0.15 0.37 2.38 12.03 3.55 1972 1.07 0.22 0.63 0.17 0.49 2.68 13.00 3.38 1973 1.07 0.22 0.66 0.18 0.60 2.83 13.49 3.31 1974 1.20 0.23 0.71 0.16 0.57 2.97 14.41 3.42 1975 1.10 0.24 0.74 0.16 0.53 2.86 14.27 3.35 1976 1.25 0.25 0.77 0.18 0.50 3.05 15.52 3.89 1977 1.21 0.25 0.80 0.18 0.51 3.03 15.99 3.88 1978 1.34 0.27 0.89 0.19 0.43 3.19 16.84 3.84 1979 1.36 0.28 0.94 0.18 0.48 3.30 17.16 3.83 1980 1.33 0.31 1.00 0.17 0.57 3.44 17.53 3.96 1981 1.27 0.29 1.05 0.16 0.71 3.54 18.18 3.63 1982 1.30 0.31 1.13 0.16 0.77 3.73 19.90 4.66 1983 1.25 0.30 1.15 0.16 0.73 3.66 20.57 5.09 1984 1.24 0.32 1.17 0.17 0.88 3.85 21.48 4.46 1985 1.30 0.34 1.23 0.17 0.78 3.90 22.54 4.60 1986 1.29 0.37 1.33 0.17 0.76 4.00 23.12 4.77 1987 1.24 0.38 1.41 0.17 0.73 4.05 24.10 5.23 1988 1.29 0.34 1.53 0.18 0.65 4.08 23.71 4.60 1989 1.24 0.37 1.62 0.16 0.82 4.27 23.79 4.61 1990 1.35 0.40 1.72 0.17 0.80 4.51 24.63 4.80 1991 1.22 0.42 1.77 0.16 0.95 4.58 25.02 4.89 1992 1.19 0.45 2.02 0.15 0.84 4.72 26.00 5.23 1993 1.20 0.45 2.09 0.15 1.07 5.01 26.24 5.23 1994 1.16 0.44 2.20 0.16 1.00 5.00 26.83 5.33 1995 4/ 1.13 0.41 2.06 0.17 1.22 5.03 27.26 5.52 1996 4/ 1.14 0.42 2.24 0.18 0.92 4.94 27.73 5.53 Processed - continued ------------------------------- Foods and Cheese Consumed spreads Total content as natural 1970 2.20 5.53 4.42 6.94 1971 2.31 5.86 4.70 7.33 1972 2.62 6.01 4.75 8.25 1973 2.68 5.99 4.72 8.77 1974 2.92 6.34 4.98 9.43 1975 3.34 6.69 5.19 9.09 1976 2.59 6.48 5.19 10.33 1977 3.23 7.12 5.60 10.39 1978 3.23 7.07 5.58 11.26 1979 3.12 6.94 5.47 11.69 1980 3.09 7.05 5.57 11.96 1981 3.14 6.77 5.31 12.86 1982 3.29 7.95 6.33 13.57 1983 3.32 8.41 6.74 13.82 1984 3.30 7.76 6.16 15.32 1985 3.00 7.60 6.09 16.46 1986 3.18 7.96 6.37 16.75 1987 3.18 8.41 6.82 17.28 1988 3.75 8.34 6.58 17.13 1989 3.57 8.17 6.41 17.38 1990 3.84 8.63 6.81 17.82 1991 3.77 8.66 6.85 18.17 1992 3.35 8.57 6.88 19.13 1993 3.47 8.70 6.97 19.27 1994 3.48 8.82 7.06 19.78 1995 4/ 3.30 8.82 7.10 20.16 1996 4/ 3.37 8.89 7.15 20.58 1/ ERS no longer separates military and civilian consumption. These data are slightly different from the civilian consumption previously published. 2/ Includes Colby, washed curd, stirred curd, Monterey, and Jack. 3/ Includes imports of Gruyere and Emmenthaler. 4/ Preliminary. 5/ Includes Gorgonzola. Numbers may not add due to rounding. END_OF_FILE