LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY August 15, 1997 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. LDP-M-44. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #LDP-M, $28/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Cattle Herd Liquidation Ending, Inventory Slide Continues Beef cow herd liquidation has largely ended, with cow slaughter down sharply. However, the shift to stability and then toward expansion is likely to be slow, not being fully in place until at least 1999. Returns to cow-calf producers are likely to turn positive this year as calf and yearling prices have risen sharply from a year earlier. However, negative returns over the past couple of years caused a larger number of heifers to be shifted to feedlots rather than the breeding herd. While forage conditions have improved in general, hay prices remain high as stocks are rebuilt and grain stocks apparently will remain at relatively low levels for another year. Factors Affecting Livestock Remain Generally Positive The U.S. economy remains very positive for the meat sector. Moderate economic growth, low inflation, and stable interest rates are expected to continue through 1998. Consumption expansion has been an important part of this economic strength. Record high consumer confidence is supported by the strong growth in employment and disposable income. Economic growth is expected to slow later this year and into 1998, but decline only by a percentage point from the robust 3-4 percent year-over-year growth since last fall. In late 1997 and 1998 per capita supplies of total red meat and poultry are expected to resume the expansion that was disrupted by high grain prices beginning in late 1995 and peaking at a record high in mid-1996. Per capita meat supplies declined from a record 211 pounds (retail weight) in 1994 to an expected 209 pounds in 1997. Continued strong consumer purchases and exports will be essential in late 1997 through 1998 to prevent a sharp price decline. Steady grain prices and short biological cycles will cause pork and poultry supplies to rise in 1998 and more than offset declining beef supplies, leading to record meat consumption of over 214 pounds. As the beef herd begins to stabilize and more heifers and cows are retained for the breeding herd, beef supplies will likely decline through 1999. Stronger export demand compared to the sluggish pace over the past year would produce an even tighter domestic supply situation for higher quality beef and stronger prices. Grain Stocks To Remain Low The August Crop Production report indicated a U.S. corn crop of 9.276 billion bushels, down from the July estimate and slightly below last year. Projected use estimates have been reduced, but 1997/98 ending stocks have been reduced 349 million bushels from last month to 847 million, nearly 100 million bushels below the estimate for 1996/97. The farm price of corn averaged $2.44 a bushel in July, down sharply from $4.43 a year earlier. The farm price of corn is expected to average $2.70 in the 1996/97 crop year and $2.50 to $2.90 in 1997/98, still well below the $3.24 average of 1995/96. Pasture and range conditions for most of the country remain in the fair to good range, but a few areas need favorable late summer-fall weather conditions for pasture growth and to rebuild hay stocks, which were pulled down sharply in 1996/97. Farmers and ranchers indicated intentions to harvest an estimated 154 million tons of hay this year, up 3 percent from last year, but down slightly from 1995. Grass or other hay production, if realized, is expected is to be record large and 9 percent above a year earlier. While production is up sharply, much of this hay will not be available for sale as farmers and ranchers rebuild hay stocks. Another year of very tight hay stocks and relatively high prices is likely. Herd expansion plans will have to be weighed carefully given the heavy feeding demands over this past winter. Hay quality is expected to remain a problem with much of this year's harvest. Although other hay production is large, alfalfa hay production is expected to decline 2 percent from last year and 8 percent from 1995. Production in North Dakota is expected to fall 46 percent as harvested acreage declines 24 percent and dry conditions pull down yields. Production in Nebraska is expected to decline 16 percent also due to dry conditions. Although hay prices have begun to decline seasonally, prices for higher quality hay remain near record highs. Prices for alfalfa hay in July declined to $106 a ton from $115 in June, but remain well above the year-earlier average of $92.90. Dairy and beef feedlot demand for higher quality alfalfa hay is expected to keep prices near record highs through the 1997/98 feeding season. The price of other hays has declined, both seasonally and from a year earlier. The price in July averaged $72.40 a ton, down from $79.40 in June and $75.50 a year ago. Inventory Decline Continues The mid-year Cattle report indicated that the number of cattle and calves on farms and ranches was 108.8 million head, down 2 percent from a year earlier and the lowest for this date since 1992's 107.2 million head. The total cow inventory was down 2 percent, with beef cow numbers down 3 percent and dairy cows continuing the recent decline of 1 percent per year. Beef replacement heifers were down 4 percent while dairy replacement heifers were down 3 percent. However, other heifers were up 1 percent. Consequently, the Cattle report and first-half 1997 slaughter statistics provide a fairly solid view of the transition the cattle inventory and industry is undergoing at this time. First-half commercial cattle slaughter was down nearly 2 percent from a year earlier, largely reflecting reduced beef cow slaughter and lower steer slaughter. Total cow slaughter was down nearly 8 percent, with beef cow slaughter down 12 percent and dairy cow slaughter down 3 percent. These figures, together with stronger feeder cattle prices and lower grain prices, suggest that herd liquidation has slowed sharply if not ended as conditions for cow-calf producers have improved. A closer examination of the female stock levels indicate expansion is well in the future. The total number of replacement heifers being retained for possible herd expansion was down more than 3 percent from a year earlier, while heifer slaughter and on- feed inventories suggest tight numbers available for breeding this summer. Heifer slaughter in first-half 1997 was up 7 percent from a year earlier. In addition, the number of heifers on feed in all feedlots with over 1,000 head of capacity on July 1 was up 26 percent from a year earlier. Given the over a million head increase in slaughter and on-feed inventories through midyear, many of the heifers of breeding age are simply not available for calf production. On-Feed Inventories Peaking Second-quarter net placements rose nearly 18 percent compared with the sharply reduced numbers a year ago when grain prices were approaching record levels. This sharp rise follows a 10-percent rise in placements during the first quarter. Large placements combined with the only 2 percent rise in first-half marketings caused July 1 on-feed inventories in feedlots with over 1,000 head of capacity in the 7-monthly reporting states to rise 17 percent from a year earlier. However, fed cattle marketings are expected to remain well above the low 1996 levels until late fall. Sharply reduced slaughter weights and lower cow slaughter held down beef production in first-half 1997. Cow slaughter will begin rising seasonally in late summer as this year's calf crop is weaned, adding to beef production. In addition, fed slaughter weights are rising seasonally and fed marketings will move production above a year ago through late fall. Feeder cattle placements are expected to decline, from the large year-earlier levels, this summer through mid-1998. Consequently, once the large on-feed inventory buildup is worked off this fall, fed cattle marketings will remain below year earlier levels through the next couple of years. Strong heifer retention and further reductions in cow slaughter will hold down beef production even more in 1998 and 1999. Feeder cattle supplies outside feedlots on July 1 were down 5 percent from a year earlier. This year's calf crop is expected to be down 2 percent from a year ago and down 4 percent from 1995. The supply of heavier cattle to place on feed has largely been exhausted. Even reduced second-half placements will have to be supported by placing lighter weight cattle on feed and through reduced calf slaughter. First-half calf slaughter was down 8 percent from a year earlier. Second-half calf slaughter will decline more sharply as competition for a reduced supply of feeder and stocker calves increases. Improved fall grazing prospects, particularly wheat grazing, would increase demand for stocker calves, as more calves are once again shifted into feedlots. Increased demand for replacement heifers for the 1998 breeding season is likely to further reduce supplies available to go on feed. This year's grain harvest and grain price movements will largely determine just how strong demand for stocker-feeder cattle can become over the next couple of years. Fed cattle prices are expected to strengthen as beef supplies decline and any increase in beef export demand would further strengthen prices. Cow-calf operators will need to reevaluate the opportunity cost of heifer retention versus sale. Expanding pork and poultry supplies and even lower relative prices will tend to hold down beef price increases or possibly shorten the period of positive returns once beef supplies begin to expand at the turn of the century. Beef Production Slide Interrupted in Third Quarter Beef production is expected to decline about 1 percent in both 1997 and 1998. However, third-quarter production will rise from the aberrantly low levels of last summer. Production in summer 1996 was down an unseasonably 4 percent from the second quarter and down 4 percent from the year earlier as rising grain prices reduced feedlot placements in first-half 1996. Production this summer is expected to rise a more seasonal 2 to 3 percent from the second quarter and a year earlier. Following a first-half production decline, beef supplies will be held up in the third and fourth quarters by the large fed cattle inventories at mid-year. However, fourth-quarter cow slaughteris expected to drop well below last year's strong liquidation level. Fed cattle slaughter in 1998 is expected to follow a fairly normal seasonal pattern and peak in the second and third quarters. However, slaughter is likely to decline 3 to 4 percent due to lower placements starting in the third quarter of this year and continuing through at least mid-1998. Similarly, cow slaughter is expected to decline about 12 percent following a likely 13-percent decline this year. Commercial dressed slaughter weights will reflect the sharply reduced proportion of cows in the mix and likely will return to 1994 to 1995 levels of 705-710 pounds per head. Beef Imports Up on Shipments From Oceania Beef imports in April and May were characterized by large increases in shipments from Australia and New Zealand. During those months imports from Australia jumped 25 percent above January-March imports and 60 percent above imports for the same period in 1996. Although imports from New Zealand didn't expand as dramatically, April-May imports were 13 percent above a year earlier and 4 percent for the first 5 months. After initial indications of strong demand for 90 percent chemical lean beef (90CL) from the hotel, restaurant, and institutional trade, demand declined with the early termination of a restaurant special. Despite larger than initially expected domestic 90CL supplies, reduced demand for beef in Japan increased pressure to make imported beef price-competitive in the United States. Prices for frozen imported 90CL, which normally sells at a premium to domestic fresh product, fell below the domestic price in March and remained at a discount through late July. Imports from Canada remained strong through the first 5 months. The Canadian livestock herd entered its liquidation cycle in the beginning of the year and slaughter has increased. Canadian slaughter at federally inspected plants through the end of July was 5 percent above 1996. Through the end of the year, the pace of meat imports could increase somewhat as Argentina becomes eligible to export product in the fourth quarter. However, Argentina is limited by a tariff rate quota of 20,000 metric tons and it is questionable whether the full level of imports can be achieved by the end of the year. Additional support for beef imports from Australia, at least in the near term, may come from the recent declines in the value of the Australian dollar. In addition, the lack of rain in Australia has raised concerns about forage availability and could lead to increased slaughter and exports later in the year. Although U.S. imports could increase in the near term, increased slaughter of heifers and cows could reduce Australia's ability to rebuild its herds from the drought-reduced levels of previous years. Nonetheless, total U.S. beef imports for 1997 are expected to reach 2.44 billion pounds, about 17 percent above last year. It is expected that 1998 imports will remain at about the same level. Exports Up to Mexico but Down to Pacific Rim Exports to Mexico have been strong in recent months, but were unable to offset a slow-down in exports to Korea and continued weak demand in Japan. Burdened by large stocks and health concerns, Japan remained a relatively depressed market in the early part of the year. However, June stocks data indicate continued stock level declines and sales may improve in the second half. Any improvement in second half sales would be relative to the highly depressed level of the second-half of 1996; imports are still expected to remain below second-half 1995. Much of the depression in import demand is also tied to consumer health and safety concerns in the wake of outbreaks of E-coli in other segments of the food sector and continued concerns over BSE. Any news that raises consumer concerns over the safety of imported products could negatively affect demand for beef. After a fast start in the first half of the year, exports to Korea dropped off significantly in April and May. Trade in those 2 months was off 30 percent from a year earlier, almost fully offsetting first-quarter gains. Part of the decline can be attributed to the rapid fall of the won relative to the U.S. dollar. Since January the won has been about 10 percent below its 1996 average. The low point for the first half of the year occurred in April and May but the most recent information indicates that the currency remains weak. Further pressure is being placed on imported beef in general by food safety concerns and large supplies of domestic beef. In light of record inventories and government expenditure to support prices, it is doubtful that Korea will import more that its minimum Uruguay Round commitments of 167,000 metric tons. Growth is possible in the later part of the year as demand for imported beef in restaurants increases, but continued weakness in the won could be troubling, especially if Australia can leverage its currency declines vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar into lower prices for its product in Korea. In Canada large slaughter and the availability of domestic beef continue to limit U.S. export opportunities. Western Canadian slaughter plants have begun focusing increased sales activities on eastern Canadian markets, traditionally sources of demand for U.S. product. Although this may have had a depressing effect on U.S. imports, it is more likely that overall supplies are more responsible for export declines. The recent strike at Cargill's High River Alberta plant (one of Canada's largest plants) lasted about 4 weeks. Although there may have been some short term disruptions in trade if Canadian cattle were shipped to the U.S. for slaughter, it is unlikely that the strike had any significant effects on Canada's meat imports. Mexico remains the most rapidly growing market for U.S. beef. Imports for the first 5 months of 1997 were almost 80 percent over 1996. A return to more robust economic growth has encouraged increased beef consumption in Mexico and U.S. product is benefiting from increased sales to retail chains and restaurants and hotels. Additional support is also being provided by relatively low domestic production. Cattle inventories remain low following the recent drought and peso devaluation and herd rebuilding is proceeding slowly. This has benefited the U.S. through sales of both beef and cattle for slaughter. As economic growth continues, exports are expected to follow but it is unlikely that the double-digit rates of the first half will be sustained. Mexican consumers are expected to remain cost conscious, which means that imports will continue to be dominated by lower-value beef. Given the weakness in three of the top four U.S. export markets, only slight increases are expected in 1997 exports. U.S. beef exports are expected to reach 1.9 billion pounds for the year, about 2 percent above 1996. Exports in 1998 are forecast to increase about 10 percent based on the assumption that consumers in Japan and Korea will return to consuming imported product as health concerns are assuaged. Cattle Imports From Canada Lower U.S. cattle imports from Canada have fallen since the beginning of the year but were partially offset by increased imports of feeder cattle from Mexico. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, imports of cattle weighing over 320 kilogram (primarily for slaughter) from Canada were down 21 percent through May. Through August 2, USDA's APHIS reports feeder cattle imports, from Canada into the western United States, were down almost 6 percent while slaughter cattle imports were 20 percent lower. Total imports of cattle from Canada were 19 percent lower during the same period. Based on weekly APHIS data, it appears that at least during the first two weeks of the Cargill strike, there were no large increases in movement of slaughter cattle into the U.S. Imports of cattle from Mexico have increased over last year's highly depressed levels. Through August 9, imports of Mexican feeder cattle were 42 percent above 1996 according to APHIS reports. Mexican inventories remain low, but U.S. cattle imports from Mexico should continue climbing as feeder cattle prices increase and the Mexican calf crop expands. Per Capita Beef Consumption Decline To Continue; Prices To Rise Per capita beef consumption will decline from the cyclical peak of 67.7 pounds in 1996 to about 66.7 pounds in 1997 and 64.8 pounds in 1998. The larger decline in 1998 reflects an expected rise in beef exports as world supplies of both fed and processing beef begin to decline. Tight processing beef supplies in the U.S. this year, due to declining cow slaughter, has led to the largest imports since 1994. The U.S. market has been made even more attractive by the very sluggish world beef markets. Prices for Choice beef at retail are expected to rise from the fairly static pattern of the past year, and average near $2.80 a pound in 1997. Prices are expected to reach the upper $2.80's per pound this fall, the highest since 1994. Retail Choice beef prices are expected to rise through 1998 as production declines. Larger supplies of competing meats will hold down retail prices to $2.90 to $2.95 a pound, well above the second-quarter 1997 average of $2.79 a pound. Packer and retail margins are likely to tighten later this fall and well into 1998 as beef supplies tighten and retailers must compete against exports for market share. As world slaughter numbers begin to decline and economic expansion strengthens the demand for hides and variety meats, the by-product allowance is likely to increase following fairly sharp declines over the past year. Fed cattle prices are expected to remain strong for the next several years, after rising about $2 per cwt to $67 in 1997. Prices are likely to average above $70 a cwt this fall and hold in the low- to mid-$70's throughout 1998. Any resumption in export demand, particularly given less competition from Australian cattle feeders due to drought, could cause prices to rise even further in 1998. Yearling feeder cattle prices have already risen over $15 per cwt this year to about $76, and are expected to rise to near $80 in 1998. Tight grain supplies and relatively high grain prices will hold down price gains through mid-1998. Stocker-feeder calf prices have been even more explosive over the past year. Favorable fall-winter grazing conditions would help sustain price gains for stocker cattle, particularly if heifer retention increases. Utility cow prices are expected to remain strong averaging over $37 per cwt this year, up about $7 from 1996, when herd liquidation was strong. Prices have come under some pressure in early summer as large imports and a still inconsistent processing beef demand caused prices to back toward the mid-$30's from near $40 in late July. Larger supplies of processing beef from continued disappointing feedlot cattle grading have also likely increased supplies of lean processing beef. Later this fall, when seasonal culling ends, and in 1998, when fed cattle and cow slaughter declines, prices are likely to rise another $5 per cwt to the low- to mid-$40's. Dairy Stocks Threaten Price Rises Heavy commercial stocks, particularly of nonfat dry milk and American cheese, loom as the greatest threat to additional recovery in prices of milk and dairy products. July 1 holdings were more than 1 billion pounds, milk equivalent, above a year earlier--a significantly larger supply boost than the expected second-half increase in milk production. Although further seasonal price rises are anticipated, they probably will be fairly modest unless stocks can be reduced sharply and quickly. Weak spring movement of cheese was the most important contributor to the stock buildup. Sluggish sales increased cheese inventories directly and also eliminated the need for normal growth in cheese production. More milk went into butter-nonfat dry milk manufacture while use of powder in cheese production plummeted, generating soaring stocks of nonfat dry milk. July 1 stocks of American cheese varieties were 18 percent higher than a year earlier, far outweighing the small decline in holdings of other varieties. These stocks were large but still where a rebound in cheese sales could bring them back into line fairly quickly. The sharp price increases since mid-July indicate that such a recovery may have occurred. However, any additional cheese price rises are likely to draw large quantities of skim solids away from the overburdened nonfat dry milk market. Manufacturers' stocks of nonfat dry milk on July 1 were more than double those of a year earlier and even much larger than the heavy stocks of mid-1995. Exports under the Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP) will reduce stocks in coming months, but additional large sales for quick shipment would be needed to have a major effect on second-half prices. A significant share of the recent surge in DEIP business was for shipment in late 1997. Sales to the government under the price support program may prove necessary to bring stocks under control, even with improved use of skim milk in cheese. Stocks of butter on July 1 were twice the level reported for a year earlier. However, most of this apparent rise was due to this year's improved coverage of warehouses holding butter. Butter stocks did not appear to be out of line with seasonal needs. Similarly, stocks of canned and dry whole milk were quite moderate. Principal Contributors - (202) 219-1285 Leland Southard (Coordinator), Milton Madison (Poultry), Dave Harvey (Poultry Trade), Ron Gustafson (Cattle), Shayle Shagam (Beef Trade), Mildred Haley (Pork Trade), Jim Miller (Dairy), Laverne Williams (Statistics). PRODUCTION INDICATORS Jul-96 May-97 Jun-97 Jul-97 Cattle: On feed - 7 States, 1,000+ Hd 6,578 8,484 8,231 7,679 Net placements 1,437 1,532 1,180 NA Marketings 1,678 1,785 1,732 NA Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 564,351 591,820 596,376 587,661 Chicks hatched (000)/2 679,766 720,610 702,511 710,000 Hatching egg layers/1 49,605 52,955 53,586 52,963 Pullets placed (000) 6,029 7,056 6,008 NA Hvy-type hen slaughter 5,630 5,314 5,501 5,500 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 37,685 36,536 36,781 38,585 Poults placed (000) 28,913 29,120 28,380 30,092 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.)/2 455 454 438 455 Table egg layers, (000)/1 241,803 246,608 243,898 243,266 Table eggs/100 layers/1 72.5 71.1 72.2 71.5 Chicks hatched (000) 33,331 38,891 36,955 33,000 Lt.-type hen slaughter 7,114 10,429 9,462 9,000 ESTIMATED RETURNS Aug-96 Jun-97 Jul-97 Aug-97 /* Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 60.21 61.31 61.29 65.83 Selling price 67.15 63.53 63.80 65.00 Net margin 6.94 2.22 2.51 -0.83 N. Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price /3 48.76 47.32 47.57 47.12 Selling price 59.59 57.60 58.75 55.75 Net margin 10.83 10.28 11.18 8.63 Broiler Wholesale cost 58.58 54.40 54.53 53.45 Wholesale price 64.07 59.05 63.04 64.00 Net margin 5.49 4.65 8.51 10.55 Turkey Wholesale cost 78.02 70.57 70.86 71.18 Wholesale price 67.54 66.78 66.36 67.00 Net margin -10.48 -3.79 -4.50 -4.18 Egg Wholesale cost 83.50 74.18 72.57 70.95 Wholesale price 92.11 69.16 84.11 78.00 Net margin 8.61 -5.02 11.54 7.05 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* estimate LIVESTOCK PRICES Aug-96 Jun-97 Jul-97 Aug-97 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 67.15 63.53 63.80 65.00 Nebraska Direct 66.84 64.07 64.77 66.00 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 33.76 37.32 38.63 37.60 Utility boning 32.15 35.44 37.75 36.70 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 65.88 93.54 94.75 89.75 600-650 lb. 64.22 84.85 89.43 86.25 750-800 lb. 63.53 78.80 82.21 80.50 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 58.28 84.18 87.86 86.00 700-750 lb. 60.64 75.78 79.57 78.50 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 59.81 57.42 58.80 55.75 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 59.59 57.60 58.75 55.75 Sows 6 Markets 50.84 47.96 47.70 48.75 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) 30.00 NA NA NA Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 83.75 83.25 79.69 89.00 Ewes, Good 38.36 31.94 36.25 NA Feeder lambs, Choice 87.50 101.00 98.00 99.25 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES Aug-96 Jun-97 Jul-97 Aug-97 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 4.48 2.59 2.44 2.55 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 4.96 4.00 3.50 3.65 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 261.19 287.90 273.58 268.00 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 95.60 115.00 106.00 96.00 Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 92.30 108.00 98.40 92.90 /* Estimates WHOLESALE PRICES Aug-96 Jun-97 Jul-97 Aug-97 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 104.43 101.83 102.38 105.10 Choice 1-3 700-850# 103.34 101.63 102.43 105.20 Select 1-3 700-850# 98.77 95.65 96.36 97.65 Cutter Cow 61.10 66.76 70.09 68.75 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 86.31 90.79 98.32 91.50 Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 87.38 86.88 88.50 88.00 Hide & offal value 9.65 8.41 8.18 8.28 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 173.14 166.71 164.97 168.50 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 79.97 75.94 78.20 77.60 Loins, 14-18 lb. 118.18 116.28 112.53 123.60 Bellies, 12-14 lb. 88.40 80.68 86.70 81.85 Hams, 20-26 lb. 81.03 66.36 68.48 65.80 Trimmings, 72% fresh 69.95 65.50 72.05 77.60 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. down, Choice 178.13 186.16 171.75 182.00 55-65 lb., Choice 182.50 181.16 166.75 182.00 Broilers 12 City Avg. 64.07 59.05 63.04 64.00 Georgia dock 65.07 59.99 61.70 62.00 Northeast Breast, boneless 201.43 184.94 194.32 200.00 Breast, Ribs on 98.10 95.63 99.08 101.00 Legs, whole 57.48 47.93 48.47 48.00 Leg quarters 42.31 29.28 31.92 31.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 71.24 66.35 65.48 65.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 64.94 68.60 68.59 69.00 Drumsticks 31.55 25.91 28.29 28.00 Wings, full cut 37.14 31.51 35.91 34.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 92.11 69.16 84.11 78.00 New York 86.86 68.40 81.90 75.00 /* Estimate RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Jul-96 May-97 Jun-97 Jul-97 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 277.6 280.3 277.6 279.2 Beef - All Fresh 247.5 253.0 252.1 253.7 Ground Beef 135.2 138.2 140.8 140.2 Rib roast 482.4 499.4 503.7 506.7 T-bone steak 595.6 593.2 586.2 593.4 Pork 225.7 229.0 233.7 232.7 Bacon 254.2 262.7 269.4 271.8 Chops 348.1 345.4 357.3 350.2 Picnic 122.4 128.3 124.7 129.0 Chicken - Composite 150.4 151.9 151.9 153.4 Whole, fresh 97.2 100.7 99.3 100.5 Breast - bone in 202.4 207.5 205.2 207.3 Leg quarter 123.9 122.1 124.3 125.5 Turkey; whole frozen 104.4 104.5 107.8 107.4 Eggs, Grade A, Large 104.2 100.2 95.2 97.9 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 157.0 160.1 160.3 160.5 All food 153.2 156.6 156.6 157.0 All meat 139.6 143.9 144.5 144.6 Beef & veal 132.3 136.9 136.4 136.5 Pork 150.4 154.3 157.4 157.5 Poultry 152.7 156.6 156.7 157.9 Dairy Products 142.0 145.4 144.1 143.3 Fluid milk & cream 142.4 144.9 143.6 142.0 Manufactured products 142.2 146.6 145.2 145.4 Price Spreads Cents/lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 24.0 21.8 22.9 22.4 Wholesale to retail 122.0 117.8 121.5 122.1 Farmers share (%) 47.0 50.0 48.0 48.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 28.9 33.1 31.8 30.1 Wholesale to retail 102.9 104.4 110.7 109.3 Farmers share (%) 42.0 40.0 39.0 40.0 Poultry and eggs Wholesale to retail Broilers 80.3 91.3 88.5 84.5 Retail to consumer Turkey 27.9 29.6 32.0 32.0 Eggs 20.8 28.4 27.0 14.8 MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - Aug-96 Aug-97 Jun-97 Jul-97 Aug-97 /* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 17,401 17,014 2,133 2,268 2,215 Veal 241 218 26 27 25 Pork 11,228 10,988 1,312 1,355 1,350 Lamb 178 170 21 20 18 Total red meat 29,048 28,390 3,492 3,670 3,608 Broilers 17,692 18,165 2,215 2,325 2,300 Other chicken 333 344 45 44 40 Turkeys 3,618 3,572 482 485 450 Total poultry 21,643 22,081 2,743 2,854 2,790 Total meat & poultry 50,691 50,471 6,235 6,524 6,398 Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 24,924 24,536 3,063 3,211 3,112 Steers 12,549 12,053 1,545 1,615 1,547 Heifers 7,240 7,795 999 1,020 996 Beef Cows 2,633 2,293 255 284 280 Dairy Cows 2,020 1,927 203 229 224 Bulls and stags 481 469 61 63 65 Calves 1,155 1,026 119 135 123 Sheep 2,796 2,559 303 306 267 Hogs 60,868 58,766 7,001 7,310 7,310 Barrows & gilts 57,956 56,335 6,695 6,990 6,990 Sows 2,439 2,025 259 268 270 Broilers 5,085,317 5,151,413 632,599 675,000 660,000 Turkeys 193,084 188,646 24,964 26,000 25,000 Aug-96 May-97 Jun-97 Jul-97 Aug-97 /* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 711 694 703 716 721 Calves 206 223 223 208 209 Sheep 61 70 69 67 67 Hogs 183 189 189 186 185 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 291.1 285.4 278.7 308.3 NA Pork 322.7 440.2 410.8 399.3 NA Bellies 28.5 54.0 55.3 52.3 NA Hams 78.9 85.8 98.6 100.3 NA Total chicken 623.5 744.3 731.5 709.7 NA Turkey 718.2 543.3 611.8 666.5 NA Frozen eggs 13.5 8.5 8.4 8.6 NA /* Estimates U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Apr-97 May-97 Jan - Jan - May-96 May-97 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 67,168 75,746 203,979 255,090 New Zealand 51,820 81,119 266,187 277,137 Canada 64,265 56,738 222,312 295,974 Brazil 7,414 8,715 34,445 40,774 Argentina 11,441 15,021 66,926 57,046 Central America 7,093 10,267 50,044 42,162 Other 6,587 8,476 25,330 39,886 Total 215,788 256,082 869,223 1,008,069 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 97,352 92,346 492,854 423,487 Canada 19,941 21,844 124,065 105,230 Mexico 20,577 24,487 54,957 98,065 Korea, Rep. 21,033 15,120 98,322 98,686 Caribbean 1,206 810 5,137 5,391 Other 15,584 14,265 67,241 68,863 Total 175,692 168,872 842,576 799,723 Cattle Imports Mexico 61,134 41,681 211,482 265,635 Canada 144,819 130,464 733,849 607,093 Over 700 lbs. 116,645 111,381 653,729 516,317 500-700 lbs. 21,298 13,324 52,292 66,275 Total 205,953 172,145 945,364 872,735 Cattle Exports Mexico 17,785 13,934 30,165 83,439 Canada 2,255 3,124 15,911 15,721 Total 20,709 17,697 60,473 101,623 Lamb Imports Australia 3,272 3,345 11,441 15,135 New Zealand 2,548 2,415 10,367 13,303 Total 5,882 5,884 22,103 28,803 Mutton Imports 2,633 2,004 9,146 12,258 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Customs Service YTD imports under WTO 8/18/96 8/10/97 % Chg Canada 301,991 345,502 1440.8% TRQ Countries 588,460 652,644 1090.7% Australia 240,923 272,370 1305.3% New Zealand 277,690 311,805 1228.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Apr-97 May-97 Jan - Jan - May-96 May-97 Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lb. Canada 32,428 34,188 169,542 170,106 Denmark 14,593 8,371 51,193 60,999 Poland 783 1,293 4,198 5,624 Hungary 820 1,197 3,652 4,081 Netherlands 919 359 4,435 3,287 Other 4,573 3,960 12,418 17,465 Total 54,117 49,368 245,437 261,562 Pork Exports Japan 45,769 44,190 268,195 173,707 Canada 9,923 11,820 42,031 48,913 Mexico 5,872 6,482 21,799 26,743 Caribbean 696 1,172 4,203 4,197 Other 32,414 24,785 128,375 121,732 Total 94,673 88,450 464,603 375,293 Hog Imports Head Canada 230,568 289,595 1,065,283 1,283,135 Under 110 lb 73,667 110,330 321,437 411,184 Total 230,749 289,595 1,065,434 1,283,399 Hog Exports Total 8,490 6,341 36,709 24,534 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 15,274 19,789 93,385 71,778 Mexico 22,321 20,619 84,732 98,537 Hong Kong 66,170 71,817 424,730 345,497 Singapore 2,834 2,001 21,380 14,391 Canada 9,473 11,544 30,671 44,532 Former USSR 122,830 198,031 739,243 845,350 Total 301,974 400,393 1,824,469 1,792,127 Turkey Exports Mexico 14,935 14,146 57,451 70,867 S. Korea 2,137 2,975 11,861 9,998 Hong Kong 11,858 8,695 5,443 49,015 Total 47,104 47,106 143,636 221,856 Shell thousand dz. Egg Exports 6,246 7,285 46,614 38,124 MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS Jul-96 May-97 Jun-97 Jul-97 Milk production Production - 21 States, Mil. lb 10,944 11,847 11,410 11,464 Milk cow number - 21 States, Thou. 7,815 7,733 7,738 7,747 Milk per cow - 21 States, Lb 1,400 1,532 1,475 1,480 Production - U.S., Mil. lb 12,807 13,849 13,334 13,362 Milk prices: Dol./cwt All milk 15.40 13.00 12.40 12.30 Milk for fluid use 15.50 13.10 12.40 12.30 Manuf. grade milk 14.00 10.90 10.70 10.90 Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 14.49 10.70 10.74 10.86 Wholesale prices: cents/lb Grade A butter 145.3 86.1 105.5 102.7 Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 158.2 116.5 117.9 123.3 Barrels 152.3 114.3 112.5 113.3 Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 132.6 109.8 107.9 107.7 International prices: $/metric ton Butter 1,695 1,725 1,725 1,688 Nonfat dry milk 1,905 1,725 1,720 1,669 Beginning stocks: Mil. lb Commercial butter 28.9 42.4 61.8 58.6 Commercial American cheese 392.9 430.1 445.2 463.4 Other cheese 149.9 127.1 138.7 141.6 Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 82.5 121.3 151.2 173.3 All commercial (mf. basis) 5,566 5,962 6,650 6,782 All commercial (ss. basis) 6,528 7,037 7,687 8,159 All Government (mf. basis) 21 43 54 43 All Government (ss. basis) 20 13 13 8 USDA net removals: Mil. lb Butter 3.2 3.8 3.4 Cheese 0.5 1.3 2.1 1.2 Nonfat dry milk 5.0 22.0 29.6 15.6 All products (mf basis 2/) 7.9 91.2 113.2 88.0 All products (ss basis 2/) 65.3 274.1 369.3 194.5 Jun-96 Apr-97 May-97 Jun-97 Dairy product output: Mil. lb Butter 72.7 117.5 103.1 79.8 American cheese 278.5 279.2 294.9 285.1 Other-than-American cheese 317.3 322.5 345.6 337.4 Frozen products 1/, Mil. gal. 129.3 110.5 117.2 125.3 All products (mf basis 2/) 7834.8 8492.8 8663.7 8222.7 Nonfat dry milk 94.3 127.3 132.8 122.4 Commercial disappearance: Mil. lb Butter 76.9 99.4 80.6 NA American cheese 275.6 242.4 281.0 NA Other-than-American cheese 342.4 339.3 354.3 NA Nonfat dry milk 92.0 67.0 81.4 NA All products (mf. basis) 12911.0 12743.0 13735.0 NA Imports (mf basis 2/) 199.2 178.6 195.8 NA Annual Forecasts 1995 1996 1997 1998 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions 6,743 6,911 7,155 7,307 CPI-U, Annual % Ch 2.7 3.0 2.7 3.0 Unemployment rate, 5.6 5.4 5.1 5.3 3-Month T Bill,% 5.5 5.0 5.1 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 6.6 6.4 6.4 6.6 Production, million lb. Beef 25,115 25,419 25,181 24,800 Pork 17,811 17,085 17,110 18,475 Broilers 25,021 26,336 27,490 29,200 Turkeys 5,129 5,466 5,462 5,725 Total Red Meat & 74,070 75,303 76,179 79,063 Eggs, mil doz. 5,269 5,393 5,480 5,625 Milk 155,425 154,331 155,999 156,600 Commercial use 154,857 155,057 156,220 157,700 Net removals (m 2,102 92 1,082 1,100 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 67.5 67.7 66.9 64.8 Pork 52.5 49.1 47.7 50.7 Broilers 68.8 70.8 73.2 77.6 Turkeys 17.9 18.5 18.1 18.8 Total Red Meat & 210.3 209.2 208.5 214.4 Eggs, number 236 237 240 243 Market Prices Choice steers, Ne 66.24 65.21 65-7 71-76 Feeder steers,Ok 68.03 61.08 74-7 77-82 Bng Ut Cows,S. Fa 35.58 30.33 36-3 41-44 Barrows & gilts,I 42.35 53.39 53-5 51-55 Broilers, 12 City 56.38 61.24 58-6 58-62 Turkeys, Eastern, 66.35 66.50 65-7 62-66 Eggs, New York, c 72.85 88.18 77-8 72-78 Milk, all at plan 12.74 14.74 12.8-13.6 12.9-13.8 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 11.83 13.39 11.5-12.3 11.8-12.6 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal expor 1,821 1,877 1,930 2,140 Beef & veal impor 2,103 2,073 2,441 2,440 Pork exports 771 951 1,250 1,465 Pork imports 664 618 613 605 Broiler exports 3,894 4,420 4,630 4,750 Turkey exports 348 438 535 565 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, May 1997 Quarterly 1996/98 Forecasts QI'96 QII'96 QIII'96 QIV'96 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,814 6,885 6,930 7,009 CPI-U, Ann. % Chang 2.8 3.8 2.3 3.2 Unemployment rate, 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.3 3-Month T Bill,% 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 10-Year Bond,% 5.9 6.7 6.8 6.3 Production, million Beef 6,303 6,642 6,390 6,084 Pork 4,389 4,104 4,143 4,449 Broilers 6,610 6,571 6,628 6,527 Turkeys 1,270 1,378 1,415 1,403 Total Meat 18,847 18,931 18,807 18,717 Eggs, mil doz. 1,330 1,320 1,352 1,392 Milk (mf basis) 39,053 39,638 37,674 37,966 Commercial use 37,671 39,833 38,749 38,804 Net removals 19 29 19 25 Consumption, Retail Beef 17.0 17.5 17.0 16.2 Pork 12.6 11.6 12.0 12.9 Broilers 17.6 18.0 18.1 17.1 Turkeys 3.7 3.9 4.6 6.2 Total Meat 51.8 51.9 52.5 53.0 Eggs, number 58.8 58.0 59.1 61.2 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 63.06 60.26 67.13 70.39 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 58.11 56.87 63.20 66.15 Brk Cows,S. Falls 32.52 30.37 31.74 26.68 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 46.23 54.82 57.75 54.75 Broiler,12 City 56.22 61.07 64.22 63.46 Turkeys, Eastern 64.80 65.40 64.90 70.90 Eggs, New York 89.60 80.50 85.90 96.70 Milk, all at plant 13.83 14.27 15.80 15.07 Milk, M-W 12.67 13.59 14.93 12.36 U.S. Trade, million Beef/veal exports 452 544 436 445 Beef/veal imports 508 526 555 484 Pork exports 221 313 180 237 Pork imports 144 155 154 165 Broiler exports 1,075 1,057 1,121 1,167 Turkey exports 96 93 124 125 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, May 1997 QI'97 QII'97 QIII'97 QIV'97 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 7,089 7,133 7,177 7,218 CPI-U, Ann. % Chang 2.4 2.5 2.8 3.0 Unemployment rate, 5.3 5.0 5.1 5.1 3-Month T Bill,% 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.5 10-Year Bond,% 6.6 6.8 6.8 6.8 Production, million Beef 6,112 6,419 6,575 6,075 Pork 4,194 4,091 4,275 4,550 Broilers 6,628 6,912 7,000 6,950 Turkeys 1,235 1,402 1,400 1,425 Total Meat 18,424 19,060 19,463 19,231 Eggs, mil doz. 1,344 1,336 1,375 1,425 Milk (mf basis) 38,922 40,577 38,400 38,100 Commercial use 38,520 39,000 39,400 39,300 Net removals 100 282 400 300 Consumption, Retail Beef 16.2 17.2 17.5 16.0 Pork 11.8 11.4 12.0 12.4 Broilers 17.6 18.9 18.8 17.9 Turkeys 3.5 4.0 4.4 6.2 Total Meat 49.7 52.1 53.4 53.2 Eggs, number 58.8 58.7 60.1 62.0 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 66.40 66.63 63-6 68-74 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 69.42 75.88 77-8 77-83 Brk Cows,S. Falls 32.02 37.05 37-4 39-43 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 51.06 56.41 55-5 52-56 Broiler,12 City 60.00 59.10 60-6 57-61 Turkeys, Eastern 58.90 66.10 67-7 72-78 Eggs, New York 84.90 72.10 77-8 80-86 Milk, all at plant 13.47 12.93 12.0-13.0 13.5-14.5 Milk, M-W 12.30 10.96 11.3-12.3 12.2-13.2 U.S. Trade, million Beef/veal exports 455 470 510 495 Beef/veal imports 536 675 640 590 Pork exports 192 260 368 430 Pork imports 158 160 135 160 Broiler exports 1,090 1,050 1,170 1,320 Turkey exports 128 137 135 135 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, May 1997 QI'98 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 7,256 CPI-U, Ann. % Chang 3.1 Unemployment rate, 5.2 3-Month T Bill,% 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 6.8 Production, million Beef 6,025 Pork 4,500 Broilers 7,100 Turkeys 1,300 Total Meat 19,157 Eggs, mil doz. 1,375 Milk (mf basis) 39,100 Commercial use 38,600 Net removals 400 Consumption, Retail Beef 16.1 Pork 12.5 Broilers 19.1 Turkeys 3.9 Total Meat 52.3 Eggs, number 59.6 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 71-73 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 76-80 Brk Cows,S. Falls 41-43 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 50-52 Broiler,12 City 57-59 Turkeys, Eastern 59-61 Eggs, New York 74-77 Milk, all at plant 13.3-13.9 Milk, M-W 11.9-12.3 U.S. Trade, million Beef/veal exports 475 Beef/veal imports 630 Pork exports 315 Pork imports 150 Broiler exports 1,100 Turkey exports 135 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, May 1997 7-State cattle on feed, net placements, marketings, and other disappearance in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year On Other dis- feed Placement Marketing appearance ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 % 1,000 % 1,000 % 1,000 % head Chg head Chg head Chg head Chg 1994 Jan. 8,256 2.2 1,416 2.8 1,481 5.9 52 -52.7 Feb. 8,139 2.4 1,256 16.7 1,357 7.6 57 -37.4 Mar. 7,981 4.0 1,518 5.3 1,467 2.2 72 -17.2 1st Q 4,190 4,305 181 Apr. 7,960 4.9 1,310 8.1 1,430 1.3 68 -31.3 May 7,772 6.6 1,359 -21.0 1,542 0.8 78 -32.2 June 7,511 2.0 1,113 -15.2 1,632 3.4 82 -1.2 2nd Q 3,782 4,604 228 July 6,910 -1.5 1,520 7.4 1,550 -0.3 39 -41.8 Aug. 6,841 0.5 1,761 0.5 1,602 5.6 51 -20.3 Sept. 6,949 -0.5 1,915 -4.3 1,525 2.3 44 -20.0 3rd Q 5,196 4,677 134 Oct. 7,295 -1.9 2,244 0.0 1,504 7.9 47 -29.9 Nov. 7,988 -2.8 1,642 2.0 1,370 3.6 62 -30.3 Dec. 8,198 -2.6 1,345 10.7 1,432 9.7 80 11.1 4th Q 5,231 4,306 189 Annual 18,399 17,892 732 1995 Jan. 8,031 -2.7 1,631 15.2 1,484 0.2 59 13.5 Feb. 8,119 -0.2 1,532 22.0 1,372 1.1 52 -8.8 Mar. 8,227 3.1 1,681 10.7 1,513 3.1 67 -6.9 1st Q 4,844 4,369 178 Apr. 8,328 4.6 1,403 7.1 1,437 0.5 61 -10.3 May 8,233 5.9 1,673 23.1 1,667 8.1 57 -26.9 June 8,182 8.9 1,356 21.8 1,754 7.5 50 -39.0 2nd Q 4,432 4,858 168 July 7,734 11.9 1,404 -7.6 1,698 9.5 49 25.6 Aug. 7,391 8.0 1,653 -6.1 1,815 13.3 40 -21.6 Sept. 7,189 3.5 2,173 13.5 1,594 4.5 46 4.5 3rd Q 5,230 5,107 135 Oct. 7,722 5.9 2,278 1.5 1,529 1.7 51 8.5 Nov. 8,420 5.4 1,804 9.9 1,478 7.9 61 -1.6 Dec. 8,685 5.9 1,446 7.5 1,412 -1.4 52 -35.0 4th Q 5,528 4,419 164 Annual 20,034 18,753 645 1996 Jan. 8,667 7.9 1,312 -19.6 1,626 9.6 49 -16.9 Feb. 8,304 2.3 1,441 -5.9 1,541 12.3 52 Mar. 8,152 -0.9 1,666 -0.9 1,476 -2.4 56 -16.4 1st Q 4,419 4,643 157 Apr. 8,286 -0.5 1,150 -18.0 1,613 12.2 65 6.6 May 7,758 -5.8 1,300 -22.3 1,747 4.8 58 1.8 June 7,253 -11.4 1,068 -21.2 1,696 -3.3 47 -6.0 2nd Q 3,518 5,056 170 July 6,578 -14.9 1,483 5.6 1,678 -1.2 46 -6.1 Aug. 6,337 -14.3 1,965 18.9 1,653 -8.9 37 -7.5 Sept. 6,612 -8.0 2,267 4.3 1,342 -15.8 51 10.9 3rd Q 5,715 4,673 134 Oct. 7,486 -3.1 2,536 11.3 1,431 -6.4 57 11.8 Nov. 8,534 1.4 1,953 8.3 1,418 -4.1 66 8.2 Dec. 9,003 3.7 1,423 -1.6 1,415 0.2 68 30.8 4th Q 5,912 4,264 191 Annual 19,564 18,636 652 1997 Jan. 8,943 3.2 1,663 26.8 1,728 6.3 65 32.7 Feb. 8,813 6.1 1,552 7.7 1,554 0.8 42 -19.2 Mar. 8,769 7.6 1,694 1.7 1,497 1.4 62 10.7 1st Q 4,909 4,779 169 Apr. 8,904 7.5 1,296 12.7 1,648 2.2 68 4.6 May 8,484 9.4 1,612 24.0 1,785 2.2 80 37.9 June 8,231 13.5 1,224 14.6 1,732 2.1 44 -6.4 2nd Q 4132 5165 192 July 7,679 16.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total heifers entering cow herd January-June and July-December Jan 1 Intended Total 1/ July 1 Heifers Percent cow herd re- disap- cow in- entering enter- Year inven- placements pearance ventory the herd ing tory Jan 1 Jan-Jun Jan-Jun - - 1,000 head- - Percent 1986 44,869 9,874 4,340 45,000 4,471 45.3 1987 44,412 9,519 3,699 44,400 3,687 38.7 1988 43,494 9,371 3,468 43,900 3,874 41.3 1989 42,625 9,442 3,517 43,000 3,892 41.2 1990 42,469 9,454 3,347 42,900 3,778 40.0 1991 42,485 9,536 3,229 43,200 3,944 41.4 1992 42,735 9,774 3,271 43,600 4,136 42.3 1993 43,023 10,268 3,395 44,600 4,972 48.4 1994 44,178 10,509 3,294 45,100 4,216 40.1 1995 44,643 10,616 3,460 45,600 4,417 41.6 1996 44,644 10,283 3,911 45,000 4,267 41.5 1997 43,561 10,088 3,639 44,000 4,078 40.4 Intended Total 2/ entering Heifers Percent herd re- disap- cow in- entering enter- Year placements pearance ventory the herd ing July 1 Jul-Dec following Jul-Dec year - - 1,000 head - Percent 1986 9,500 4,294 44,412 3,706 39 1987 9,400 3,577 43,494 2,671 28 1988 9,200 3,522 42,625 2,247 24 1989 9,200 3,438 42,469 2,907 32 1990 9,100 3,210 42,485 2,795 31 1991 9,300 3,031 42,735 2,566 28 1992 9,700 3,216 43,023 2,639 27 1993 9,700 3,336 44,178 2,914 30 1994 9,900 3,310 44,643 2,853 29 1995 9,600 3,490 44,644 2,534 26 1996 9,200 4,032 43,561 2,593 28 1997 8,900 1/ Death loss calculated as 1 percent of January 1 cow inventory plus estimated cow slaughter. 2/ Death loss calculated as 1/2 percent of January 1 cow plus estimated commmercial cow slaughter Beef heifers entering cow herd January-June and July-December Jan 1 Intended Total 1/ July 1 Heifers Percent cow herd re- disap- cow in- entering enter- Year inven- placements pearance ventory the herd ing tory Jan 1 Jan-Jun Jan-Jun - - 1,000 head- - Percent 1992 33,007 5,643 1,695 33,900 2,588 45.9 1993 33,365 6,092 1,767 34,900 3,302 54.2 1994 34,650 6,365 1,744 35,600 2,694 42.3 1995 35,156 6,475 1,907 36,100 2,851 44.0 1996 35,228 6,179 2,302 35,600 2,674 43.3 1997 34,280 6,051 2,072 34,700 2,492 41.2 1/ Death loss calculated as 1 percent of January 1 cow inventory plus estimated cow slaughter. 2/ Death loss calculated as 1/2 percent of January 1 cow inventory plus estimated commmercial cow slaughter Jan 1 Heifers Intended Total 2/ entering entering Percent herd re- disap- cow in- the herd enter- Year placements pearance ventory Jul-Dec ing July 1 Jul-Dec following year - - 1,000 head - Percent 1992 5,600 1,681 33,365 1,146 20.5 1993 5,700 1,759 34,650 1,509 26.5 1994 5,900 1,797 35,156 1,353 22.9 1995 5,700 1,976 35,228 1,104 19.4 1996 5,500 2,391 34,280 1,071 19.5 1997 1/ Death loss calculated as 1 percent of January 1 cow inventory plus estimated cow slaughter. 2/ Death loss calculated as 1/2 percent of January 1 cow plus estimated commmercial cow slaughter. July 1 cattle inventory Class 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1,000 head Cattle and calves 105,400 104,600 106,100 107,200 109,000 Cows and heifers that have calved 43,000 42,900 43,200 43,600 44,600 Beef cows 33,000 32,900 33,400 33,900 34,900 Milk cows 10,100 10,100 10,000 9,700 9,700 Heifers 500 lb+ 16,200 16,000 16,500 16,700 17,000 For beef cow replacement 4,800 5,000 5,200 5,600 5,700 For milk cow replacement 4,400 4,100 4,100 4,100 4,000 Other heifers 7,000 6,900 7,200 7,000 7,300 Steers 500 lb+ 14,100 14,100 14,600 14,800 14,900 Bulls 500 lb+ 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 Calves under 500 l 29,900 29,400 29,600 29,900 30,300 Calf crop: Jan-June 28,300 28,200 28,400 28,500 28,800 July-Dec 10,517 10,413 10,183 10,433 10,648 Class 1994 1995 1996 1997 Cattle and calves 111,300 113,000 111,500 108,800 Cows and heifers that have calved 45,100 45,600 45,000 44,000 Beef cows 35,600 36,100 35,600 34,700 Milk cows 9,500 9,500 9,400 9,300 Heifers 500 lb+ 17,400 17,600 17,300 17,100 For beef cow replacement 5,900 5,700 5,500 5,300 For milk cow replacement 4,000 3,900 3,700 3,600 Other heifers 7,500 8,000 8,100 8,200 Steers 500 lb+ 15,200 15,400 15,100 14,600 Bulls 500 lb+ 2,300 2,400 2,400 2,300 Calves under 500 l 31,300 32,000 31,700 30,800 Calf crop: Jan-June 29,300 29,500 29,200 28,500 July-Dec 10,759 10,711 10,386 10,300 Feeder cattle supply outside feedlots -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Change from Item 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 /3 Prev. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 head Percent On farms Jan 1: Calves < 500 lbs 18117 17884 18369 18488 17688 -4.3 Steers over 500 lbs 16940 17042 17463 17732 17315 -2.4 Heifers over 500 /2 8550 9068 9275 9949 10219 2.7 Total 43607 43994 45107 46169 45222 -2.1 On feed Jan 1 1/ 12698 12931 12374 12862 13102 1.9 Feeder cattle outsid feedlots on Jan 1 30908 31062 32733 33307 32120 -3.6 Slaughter Jan-Mar Calves 321 311 350 431 403 -6.6 Steers & heife 6221 6495 6662 7085 7037 -0.7 Total 6542 6806 7012 7516 7440 -1.0 On feed Apr 1 1/ 12206 12441 12596 12245 9207 -24.8 Feeder cattle outsid feedlots on April 24858 24745 25498 26407 28574 8.2 On farms July 1: Calves < 500 lbs 30300 31300 32000 31700 30800 -2.8 Steers over 500 l 14900 15200 15400 15100 14600 -3.3 Heifers over 500 7300 7500 8000 8100 8200 1.2 Total 52500 54000 55400 54900 53600 -2.4 On feed July 1 1/11038.58 10577.61 11140 9741 10839 11.3 Feeder cattle outside feedlots on July 1 41461.42 43422.39 44260 45159 42761 -5.3 Slaughter Jul-Sep Calves 288.8 312.4 360.9 468.9 29.9 Steers & heifer 7017 7269 7657 7169 -6.4 Total 7305 7581 8017 7637 -4.7 On feed Oct 1 1/: 11239 10728 10946 11001 0.5 Feeder cattle outside feedlots on Oct 133955 35689 36436 36261 -0.5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimated U.S. steers and heifers. 2/ Not including heifers for herd replacement. 3/ 1995-1997 data revised to incorporate July 1 cattle inventory. Commercial calf slaughter and production ----------------------------------------------- Year Dressed Slaughter weight Productio ----------------------------------------------- 1,000 Million head Pounds pounds 1994 I 312 228 71 II 288 236 68 III 312 218 68 IV 357 213 76 Year 1269 223 283 1995 I 350 223 78 II 333 222 74 III 361 211 76 IV 386 207 80 Year 1430 215 308 1996 I 432 208 90 II 405 215 87 III 470 202 95 IV 463 205 95 Year 1770 207 367 1997 I 404 213 86 II 364 220 80 ----------------------------------------------- Calf slaughter by class under Federal inspection ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bob veal Fed Other Year 150 lb & 150 to 400 lb over Total below Formula Nonformula 400 lb ----------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 head 1990 657 851 99 135 1743 1991 466 790 66 86 1408 1992 423 760 62 82 1328 1993 324 725 45 66 1159 1994 416 730 37 54 1237 1995 564 740 35 54 1393 1996 867 747 32 71 1718 I 203 194 9 13 420 II 185 188 8 16 397 III 252 172 8 21 454 IV 228 193 6 20 447 1996 Jul. 90 55 3 7 156 Aug. 87 56 3 8 153 Sep. 75 62 2 6 145 Oct. 76 73 2 7 159 Nov. 74 56 2 8 139 Dec. 77 63 2 6 149 1997 Jan. 74 61 3 5 143 Feb. 58 58 2 3 122 Mar. 65 57 3 3 128 Apr. 62 58 2 5 126 -------------------------------------------------------------------- Selected price statistics for meat animals and meat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item Feb-97 Mar-97 Apr-97 May-97 Jun-97 Jul-97 /* ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Slaughter Steers: Choice, 1100-1300 l Nebraska direct 65.48 68.21 68.32 67.49 64.07 64.77 Colorado 65.2 67.93 68.2 67.87 63.38 63.74 Texas 65.35 67.44 67.66 67.36 63.53 63.8 California 64.5 67.42 65.9 64.5 62.57 62.3 Slaughter heifers: Nebraska Choice, 1000-1200 NA NA NA NA NA NA Cows: Sioux Falls Commercial 34.69 38.26 39.47 39.88 38.74 39.74 Breaking Utility 34.06 37.44 38.54 39.13 37.32 38.63 Boning Utility 32.5 35.79 37.72 38 35.44 37.75 Cutter 25 28.03 30.14 31.56 30.26 31.74 Canner 21.81 26.06 28.74 29.63 28.18 29.74 Feeder steers: Okla. City Medium No. 1 500-550 lb 81.46 87.29 87.85 89.44 93.54 94.75 600-650 lb 74.02 77.64 81.57 84.21 84.85 89.43 750-800 lb 69.46 69.14 72.52 76.32 78.8 82.21 Amarillo Medium No. 1, 600-650 lb 75.38 73.93 77.2 82.2 81.28 83.95 Georgia Auctions Medium No. 1-2, 400-500 lb 70.72 79.06 79.65 81.03 77.39 84.25 600-700 lb 67.09 70.74 71.86 74.74 74.19 78.38 Feeder heifers: Medium No. 1, Okla. City 450-500 lb 70.43 76.81 77.74 81.91 84.18 87.86 700-750 lb 64.59 65.6 68.73 73.57 75.78 79.57 Slaughter lambs: Choice, San Angelo 100.81 97.5 95.5 83.17 83.25 79.69 Choice, So. St. Pau 99.19 99.83 89.53 87.5 83.79 76.45 Slaughter ewes, Good: San Angelo 38.5 54.06 49.7 43.69 31.94 36.25 So. St. Paul 34.33 37.38 34.42 30.42 30.21 28.21 Feeder lambs: San Angelo 115 122.75 115.65 104.75 101 98 So. St. Paul 106.99 106 105.3 108.19 97.24 88.45 Farm prices: Beef cattle 61.9 64.8 64.8 65.1 62.3 62.7 Calves 74.9 80 82.2 84.3 85.4 86 Sheep 41.4 42.7 37.6 33.4 36.2 NA Lambs 99.8 99.6 96 90.9 86.6 NA Meat prices: Wholesale, Central U.S. Boxed beef cutout Choice, 1-3 550-700 lb 98.98 104.87 104.17 105.97 101.83 102.38 700-850 lb 98.17 104.33 103.56 105.72 101.63 102.43 Select, 1-3 550-700 lb 95.4 99.83 99.05 99.65 96.26 96.9 700-850 lb 94.55 99.22 98.47 99 95.65 96.36 Cutter Cows 59.73 68.96 68.33 70.16 66.76 70.09 Wholesale, East Coast Choice & Prime Veal carcass 200-280 lb 171.13 181.01 168.2 165.96 166.71 164.97 Lamb carcass < 55 lb 188.75 189.75 192.78 194.75 186.16 171.75 55-65 lb 188.75 189.75 189.78 189.75 181.16 166.75 Retail beef prices: Choice 278.6 276.1 279 280.3 277.6 279.2 All fresh 254.79 254.48 252.98 252.96 252.12 253.7 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- /* Preliminary Selected slaughter statistics for meat animals and meat ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item Feb-97 Mar-97 Apr-97 May-97 Jun-97 Jul-97 /* ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Commercial: 1/ Slaughter Cattle 2,797 2,862 3,060 3,184 3,063 3,211 Steers 1,317 1,369 1,513 1,651 1,545 1,615 Heifers 913 910 951 974 999 1,020 Beef cows 266 279 289 274 255 284 Dairy cows 252 248 246 223 203 229 Bulls and Stags 49 56 61 62 61 63 Calves 126 131 129 116 119 125 Sheep and Lambs 327 398 336 317 303 306 Lambs 310 378 316 298 286 NA Ewes 17 20 20 19 17 NA Production Beef 1,921 1,968 2,096 2,190 2,133 2,268 Veal 27 28 28 26 26 27 Lamb and mutton 21 26 22 22 21 20 Pork 1,309 1,422 1,446 1,333 1,312 1,355 Federally inspected: Average live wt Cattle 1,166 1,164 1,155 1,152 1,163 1,181 Calves 346 347 351 359 360 336 Sheep and lambs 132 133 133 139 138 135 Average dressed wt Cattle 694 694 691 694 703 716 Steers 753 749 742 741 750 769 Heifers 697 693 686 684 692 704 Cows 528 536 537 536 542 548 Bulls 846 850 856 863 873 871 Calves 214 215 218 223 223 208 Sheep and lambs 66 66 67 70 69 67 Cold storage stocks: Beef 290.3 261.7 290.4 285.4 278.7 308.3 Veal 7.2 6.6 6.3 5.5 4.0 4.3 Lamb and mutton 9.6 9.9 11.2 13.0 15.2 16.6 Trade: Imports (carcass wt Beef and veal 151,740 198,378 215,788 256,082 Lamb and mutton 6,761 9,774 8,514 7,888 Exports (carcass wt Beef and veal 3/ 153,269 146,317 175,692 168,872 Lamb and mutton 336 741 597 447 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Classes estimated. 2/ Beginning of the month. /* Estimate Commercial cattle slaughter --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Steers & Total Total Year Steers Heifers heifers cows Bulls Cattle --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1995 I 4,218 2,444 6,662 1,593 163 8,418 II 4,882 2,575 7,457 1,421 175 9,053 III 4,903 2,754 7,657 1,445 177 9,279 IV 4,271 2,626 6,897 1,822 171 8,890 Year 18,274 10,399 28,673 6,281 686 35,640 1996 I 4,411 2,674 7,085 1,726 160 8,971 II 4,943 2,720 7,663 1,739 187 9,589 III 4,495 2,674 7,169 1,754 200 9,123 IV 3,975 2,689 6,664 2,055 181 8,900 Year 17,824 10,757 28,581 7,274 728 36,583 1997 I 4,182 2,855 7,037 1,713 157 8,907 II 4,709 2,924 7,633 1,490 184 9,307 III /2 7,600 1,475 180 9,255 IV /2 6,775 1,650 170 8,595 Year 2/ 28,937 6,328 691 36,064 1998 I /2 6,970 1,450 145 8,565 II /2 7,405 1,300 150 8,855 Year 2/ 28,855 5,600 600 35,055 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Classes estimated. 2/ Forecast Cattle prices ------------------------------------------------ Ok City Nebraska Fdr Sioux Falls Year Steer Steer Utility Cow ------------------------------------------------ Dollars per cwt 1995 I 71.58 72.62 39.58 II 64.70 65.77 37.18 III 62.65 66.17 34.93 IV 66.10 67.55 30.61 Year 66.26 68.03 35.58 1996 I 63.06 58.11 32.52 II 60.26 56.87 30.37 III 66.51 63.20 31.74 IV 70.39 66.15 26.68 Year 65.05 61.08 30.33 1997 I 66.40 69.44 32.02 II 66.63 75.88 37.05 III /2 63-69 77-83 37-41 IV /2 68-74 77-83 39-43 Year 65-70 74-79 36-39 1998 I /2 71-73 76-80 41-43 Year 71-76 77-82 41-44 ------------------------------------------------ 1/ Classes estimated. 2/ Forecast Federally inspected cattle slaughter Week Cattle Steers and heifers ended 1996 1997 % Chg 1996 1997 % Chg ------------------------------------------------------ Thousands Jan. 11 697.5 723.2 4 544.4 549.2 1 18 692.1 729.7 5 537.5 584.1 9 25 681.9 730.5 7 536.6 567.2 6 Feb. 8 653.5 699.6 7 520.1 553.9 6 1 650.2 685.4 5 519.9 541 4 1 709 666.6 -6 547.8 532.5 -3 22 701.4 667.3 -5 553.2 533.3 -4 Mar. 15 688.6 672.3 -2 548.4 534 -3 8 673.2 671.1 -0 540.7 540.3 -0 15 671.9 664.7 -1 536.5 521 -3 29 682.8 660.1 -3 538.7 524.5 -3 22 642.9 648 1 506.6 512.8 1 Apr. 5 673.1 661.4 -2 537.9 529.8 -2 12 672.7 670.1 -0 533.6 541 1 19 698.7 700.9 0 547.8 566.8 3 26 729.1 696.3 -4 579.2 557.9 -4 May. 3 724.3 710.4 -2 579.9 582.1 0 10 739.5 739 -0 600.1 606.9 1 17 754.9 711.7 -6 604.9 586.8 -3 24 750.6 728.1 -3 597.7 601.2 1 31 664.5 627.7 -6 522.5 516.8 -1 June 21 757.3 710.6 -6 609.4 594.9 -2 14 767.9 695.4 -9 624.7 580.9 -7 7 713.5 733.4 3 570.1 607.1 6 28 727.8 731.9 1 582.1 603.3 4 July 5 597 596.6 -0 486.7 495 2 12 700 711.7 2 550 582 6 19 721 719 -0 565.7 589.3 4 26 679.7 539.4 Aug. 2 668.2 530.9 9 711.7 568.8 16 710.9 563.4 23 733.7 575.3 30 705.2 551.1 Sept. 6 597.1 470 13 692.9 539.2 20 657 502.7 27 633.5 481.5 Oct. 4 653.9 496.2 11 663.7 498.9 18 674.8 504.9 25 675.7 500.6 Nov. 1 686.6 504.7 8 693.6 514.9 15 669.3 488.6 22 670.9 494.5 29 599.3 460.6 Dec. 6 696.9 518.6 13 694.8 511.6 20 671.1 508.7 27 501.4 394.4 Federally inspected cattle slaughter Week All cows Beef cows ended 1996 1997 % Chg 1996 1997 % Chg ------------------------------------------------------ Jan. 11 140.6 161.8 15 78.8 89 13 18 142.3 135.2 -5 78.5 74 -6 25 133.1 150.9 13 69.9 84 19 Feb. 8 122.6 133.4 9 65.8 71 7 1 120.2 133.3 11 60.9 71 16 1 147.6 122.3 -17 79.9 61 -23 22 134.9 122 -10 73.5 59 -20 Mar. 15 127.8 126.2 -1 63.7 62 -3 8 120.2 118.8 -1 64.5 58 -10 15 122.9 129.6 5 63.2 68 7 29 130.6 122.2 -6 72.2 66 -8 22 124 122.1 -2 68.1 64 -6 Apr. 5 122.9 118.2 -4 65.8 64 -3 12 125.6 116.5 -7 70.2 62 -12 19 136.4 120.1 -12 75.8 64 -15 26 135.4 123.9 -8 80.6 69 -14 May. 3 130.1 114.2 -12 78.1 63 -19 10 125.1 117.5 -6 74.5 65 -13 17 135.2 111.3 -18 76 61 -19 24 138.1 112.9 -18 84.1 62 -26 31 128.6 98.6 -23 79.6 54 -32 June 21 133.4 101.7 -24 80.4 57 -30 14 129.1 101 -22 77.7 56 -28 7 129.1 111.3 -14 79.8 61 -24 28 131.1 113.4 -14 80 64 -20 July 5 99.7 90.4 -9 61.1 50 -19 12 135.4 116 -14 78.4 64 -18 19 140.3 114.6 -18 81 65 -20 26 125.4 71.6 Aug. 2 122.8 68.1 9 128.4 73.9 16 132.3 75.5 23 141.9 81.1 30 137.4 77.7 Sept. 6 113.5 62.5 13 137.5 79.5 20 138.7 77.4 27 136.2 76.7 Oct. 4 141.9 83.4 11 149.4 86.5 18 154.4 90.8 25 159.7 94.7 Nov. 1 166.8 101.3 8 163.8 98 15 166.3 100.5 22 162.6 98.5 29 127.9 74.8 Dec. 6 165 96.2 13 169 98.2 20 150.4 87.6 27 100.7 57.7 END_OF_FILE