LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY September 17, 1997 September 1997, LDP-M-45 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #LDP-M, $28/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Poultry Growth To Accelerate Production in the three major poultry sectors is expected to grow at a higher rate in 1998 than in 1997. High grain and soybean meal prices during the 1995/96 crop year constrained poultry profitability during 1996 and led to conservative production expansion for 1997. Net returns in 1997 improved from 1996 for broilers and turkeys although turkey returns are expected to average below break-even. Egg returns are expected to average nearly 10 cents per dozen in 1997, compare with 13 cents last year. For calendar year 1998 corn prices are expected to average slightly higher than in 1997 but soybean meal prices are likely to average about 25 percent lower. With wholesale poultry prices expected to be only slightly lower than in 1997, the improved net returns should encourage increased production. Broiler Production Increasing Broiler meat production in the first quarter of 1997 was nearly unchanged from last year but production increases accelerated during the second quarter with a nearly 6 percent rise. A similar rate of increase is expected for the fourth quarter. A slightly slower rate, 5 percent likely occurred in the third quarter. Hot weather in late July and early August restrained weight increases for birds this summer and contributed to the slower production increase for the third quarter. The fourth quarter forecast assumes weight increases per bird will recover. Broiler Egg Set Increase Slowing Net returns at the lowest levels this year, 4-5 cents per pound in May and June, probably contributed to smaller increases in broiler egg sets in hatcheries during July and August. The average increase in weekly egg sets for July and August was about 1 percent below that of the previous 3 months. Hotter weather this year may have contributed to the lower egg sets because of lower hatchery flock productivity. The broiler hatchery supply flock was 9 percent larger than a year ago on August 1, so even with lower productivity the capacity for more rapid increases in production is available. Uncertainty in the export market and expected lower wholesale prices than last year during the second half of 1997 have kept broiler producers cautious about increasing production. Net Returns Higher For 1997, net returns to broiler producers are expected to be about 3 cents per pound higher than last year's 5 cents per pound. Wholesale whole broiler prices were above a year ago during the first 4 months of 1997, but have since fallen below a year ago and are expected to remain lower for the rest of the year. Lower feed costs have more than offset the lower prices and are allowing the increase in net returns. Parts Prices Mixed Broiler breast meat prices have been near year-ago levels during 1997 and are expected to remain strong. Leg quarter prices, however, have been more than 20 percent lower than a year ago during most months of 1997. These lower prices have been due to changes in the export market. Lower sales to Hong Kong, an increase in tariff collections by the Russian government, and a ban of sales to the EU have put pressure on leg quarter prices. Prices considerably below a year ago are expected to continue through the rest of the year and on into early 1998. The 1997 and 1998 retail composite broiler prices are expected to increase less than 1 percent. Leading Production States Stable Changes in the ranking of the leading broiler production states in 1996 only affected the lower ranked states. The leading seven states remained in the same order as in 1995. All of the Delmarva states had slightly lower production in 1996. Virginia had a smaller decrease and passed Delaware to become the eighth largest producer. Environmental regulations and disease problems probably were responsible for the production declines in the Delmarva region. Missouri had a 29-percent increase in production for 1996 and passed California, which had a slight decrease, for the tenth place. Kentucky, Wisconsin, and Iowa also had double-digit percentage increases in 1996 but started from much lower levels of production. Turkey Stocks Lower Slightly lower turkey meat production in the first 7 months of 1997 and higher exports have brought July turkey cold storage stocks below a year ago for the first time since November 1995. This should provide support for increasing turkey prices through the fall. Eastern region hen prices were below a year ago for the first 4 months of the year. However, with production lower than last year and the slower buildup of whole bird stocks, prices have risen above a year ago and are expected to remain stronger through the end of this year and into the first quarter of 1998. The August Turkeys report from the National Agricultural Statistics Service indicates that slightly more turkeys will be raised during 1997 than in 1996. Average live weight of birds has been running about 1 percent above a year ago during 1997. However, turkey meat production in 1997 is expected to be about unchanged from last year because condemnations are running above a year ago mainly due to increased contamination. Ante-mortem condemnations have been 8 percent higher through July and post-mortem condemnations have been 2 percent higher. Through July 1997 higher condemnations have offset the increase in live weight that the birds have attained. Net Returns To Turn Positive Turkey processor net returns have been negative since January. They are expected to turn positive in October as wholesale prices increase prior to Thanksgiving. Average net returns are still expected to be negative for the year but considerably better than last years' loss of 6 cent per pound. Regional Production Stable The top seven production states stayed the same in 1996 as in 1995 and are expected to remain the same in 1997. Consecutive years of declining production in the leading turkey production state, North Carolina, is a new development after a decade of rapid production increases. Production decreased 3 percent in 1996 relative to 1995 and is expected to decrease 7 percent in 1997. Continuing problems with the Poult Early Mortality Syndrome on certain farms in North Carolina have caused those producers to discontinue production. Increased production in most of the other leading states has kept overall bird numbers increasing. Egg Production About Unchanged During the July table egg production flock was smaller than a year ago for the first time since February 1996. Negative net returns during May and June and hotter weather during June and July probably contributed to the decrease. The hotter weather also appears to have affected productivity, which is below a year ago even though the production flock is younger. Production is expected to be nearly unchanged from a year ago for the rest of 1997 and the first quarter of 1998. Production increases are then expected to accelerate for the rest of 1998. Wholesale egg prices have been below a year ago for most of 1997. Prices are expected to be lower for the rest of the year, averaging near 80 cents per dozen compared to 88 cents in 1996. Continued lower prices are expected in 1998 with the annual average near 75 cents per dozen. Feed costs have not declined enough to make up for the lower egg prices. So, 1997 net returns are expected to be about 3 cents lower than the 13 cents per dozen earned in 1996. Net returns in 1998 are expected to be even lower, but still well above breakeven. Lower Broiler Export Growth Expected Broiler exports for 1997 are forecast at 4.6 billion pounds, only about 5 percent higher than in 1996. This follows several years of double digit export growth. Over the first half of 1997, total broiler exports have been 2.2 billion pounds, 2.6 percent above the same period in 1996. While export growth to Russia, other Newly Independent States (NIS), and Mexico have shown strong gains, the overall increase has been moderated by falling sales to many Asian markets. The forecast for 1998 is for only a 2-3 percent increase in broiler exports due to a gradual slowdown in the expansion of exports to Russia and continued strong competition in Asian markets from China, Brazil, and Thailand. In the six largest Asian markets (Hong Kong, Japan, China, Singapore, Korea, and Taiwan) U.S. broiler exports fell 19 percent in the first half of 1997. There are a number of factors involved, such as strong competition from broiler producers in China. China has expanded its share of the Japanese market, especially for deboned leg meat. With the large devaluation of the baht, Thailand, which had been losing market share in the Japanese market, will become a much stronger competitor. However, a large share of the decline in broiler product exports to the Asian markets can probably be attributed to strong competition from other U.S. poultry products. Gains in exports of turkey products and mature chicken (spent laying hens) have almost totally offset the decline. Over the first 6 months total poultry meat shipments to the largest Asian markets were down less than 1 percent and shipments to Hong Kong, our largest market in the region, were actually up 6 percent. Broiler exports are expected to strengthen seasonally in the second half of 1997 with gains to Mexico and Russia offsetting lower shipments to Asian markets. The chief uncertainty in the forecast is whether the economic downturns that have forced Thailand to devalue its currency will spread to other countries in Asia. This would lower the overall demand for poultry meats and increase the price of U.S. products relative to those from Thailand or China. Over the last several years the increases in exports to Eastern Europe and the NIS countries have been the central factor in the overall growth of U.S. broiler exports. Over the first half of 1997, six countries in this region were among the top 20 export markets (Russia, Latvia, Poland, Estonia, Ukraine, and Azerbaijan). They accounted for 1.2 billion (55 percent) of the 2.2 billion pounds of broiler exports or about 9 percent of total U.S. broiler production in first-half 1997. The breakup of the Soviet Union and the resulting shift from government controlled agricultural production to a more market oriented structure led to a large decline in domestic poultry production, and the need for large imports. Changes in the agricultural sectors in these countries will likely hold the key to future growth in U.S. broiler exports. Turkey Exports To Continue Higher Even with an anticipated slowing of export growth in second-half 1997, turkey shipments are forecast to reach 547 million pounds, 25 percent above 1996. Although shipments to Russia are down after rising rapidly in 1996, strong increases in exports to Mexico (up 24 percent) and Hong Kong (up 613 percent) continue to dominate the market. With the exception of Mexico, the pattern of gains and losses in turkey exports over the first half of 1997 is almost the opposite of the broiler market. Turkey exports have been lower to Russia and Poland, but have grown at least at a double digit rate to most Asian markets. In almost all cases, turkey exports have been concentrated in the lower valued turkey products, such as ground turkey meat or mechanically deboned meat (MDM). These are likely used in combination with other meats for sausage production. As with the broiler market, the outlook for turkey exports for second-half 1997 and into 1998 is to a large degree on the health of the Asian economies and on the relative prices of turkey meat compared to broiler meat and pork trimmings. Turkey meat is expected to face strong competition in 1998 from pork trimmings, especially from U.S. pork producers, as production is forecast at record levels. With this competition expected in Asian markets and a slowing of export growth to Mexico, U.S. turkey exports are forecast at 575 million pounds in 1998. This is much lower than the growth seen over the last 3 years, but still about 5 percent higher than the 1997 forecast. Other Chicken Exports Exports of other chicken products continue to surge with a gain of 116 percent in first-half 1997 compared to a year earlier. With the lone exception of Canada, exports to major markets expanded at a double digit or faster pace. Year-over-year export growth is expected to slow considerably in second-half 1997, but total exports are forecast at 377 million pounds, over 40 percent higher than in 1996. In 1998 the rate of other chicken exports is expected to slow considerably and total 388 million pounds, only 3 percent above 1997. The slower growth is expected to stem from a gradual leveling off of demand in Russia and the NIS, stronger competition from other U.S. poultry and meat exports, and growing competition from other poultry producers, especially in Asian markets. Egg Exports Expected To Fall in 1997 With egg exports declining sharply in second-quarter 1997 to Japan, Hong Kong, and Mexico, total exports for 1997 are now forecast at 235 million dozen, down 7 percent from the previous year. In the second quarter, exports of egg products to Japan and Mexico were down as demand fell in Japan and domestic production rose in Mexico. The decline in exports to Hong Kong stemmed from lower shell egg shipments due to strong competition from Chinese egg producers. Exports to the Middle East were also lower due to increased EU competition. Exports in 1998 are expected to rise about 8 percent, which would bring them to about the same level as in 1996. Egg product exports to Mexico are expected to return to 1996 levels, but shipments to Japan are likely to remain depressed. Shell egg exports to Hong Kong are forecast to rebound somewhat, but this will depend on how long the oversupply situation and the resulting low prices last in China. After falling in 1997, shell egg exports to the Middle East are likely to show only moderate gains. Hog Prices Decline Hog prices declined to about $50 per cwt in mid-September from an average of $59 in July as pork production increased seasonally and pork exports continued below earlier expectations. U.S. pork exports had been expected to rise substantially after Taiwanese pork exports to many countries, including Japan, were banned in March following an outbreak of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in Taiwan. Lower pork prices, which should encourage more retail featuring of pork, and rising exports are expected to hold hog prices in the low $50's per cwt this fall. The Hogs and Pigs report to be released on September 26 will provide additional information about prospective pork production for the remainder of 1997 and 1998. USDA has lowered its forecast for U.S. pork exports for 1997 and 1998, due largely to weaker than anticipated Japanese import demand. The U.S. is expected to export 1.1 billion pounds of pork in 1997, down 12 percent from the previous forecast of 1.2 billion pounds. Exports in 1998 are expected to be 1.2 billion pounds, down 17 percent from the previous forecast of 1.5 billion. Lower Japanese demand for U.S. pork is likely due to a number of factors. Higher pork prices, both in Japan and in the U.S., particularly since the FMD outbreak in Taiwan, have discouraged U.S. exports to Japan this year. In fact, the Japanese government took the unusual step of waiving the 4.7 percent tariff on pork imports for the month of August to increase available pork supplies, and thus to moderate high domestic prices. Other factors--intangibles, and difficult to measure--may be moderating demand for U.S. pork in Japan. Japanese consumer reactions to food safety issues, and to differences between U.S. and Asian produced pork. Food safety concerns may have caused a shift in demand away from imported products. It is difficult to determine whether reluctance to consume imported meat products is a permanent shift in Japanese consumer preferences, or whether consumers will resume more normal consumption patterns, as incidences of E-coli outbreaks decline and animal disease problems such as BSE and FMD come under control. The demand for Japanese pork may be affected by consumer responses to apparent differences in appearance and taste between pork produced in the U.S. and in Asia. Pork produced in Taiwan, for example is darker in color, sweeter in taste, and somewhat tougher in texture than U.S. pork. The absence of the anticipated surge in Japanese demand for U.S. pork products since the FMD outbreak in Taiwan in March, could be a signal that Japanese consumers view U.S. pork as a distinct product, and not as a substitute for pork produced in Taiwan or Japan. Another factor likely moderating Japanese demand for U.S. pork is increased competition in the Japanese import market, especially since March. Canada and the South Korea, in particular, have been aggressively marketing pork to Japan since last spring. While export forecasts to Japan have moderated, U.S. shipments to Canada, Mexico, and South Korea have increased so far in 1997, and are expected to continue into 1998. In Canada, U.S. pork exports have filled the gap created by exports of Canadian hogs to the U.S., and concerted efforts by Canadian packers to increase market share in Japan. In Mexico, economic growth has translated into a 38 percent increase in U.S. exports. First half exports to South Korea are 40 percent greater than in 1996. Continued growth is expected, as Korea liberalized the structure of its frozen pork import market on July 1, in accordance with its WTO commitments. First-half 1997 U.S. imports of Canadian hogs ran 20 percent higher than the same period in 1996, but are expected to moderate in the second half. U.S. hog supplies are expected to increase and Canadian packers should bid more aggressively for hogs to fill new packing capacity and to service developing export markets in Japan. Cheese Prices Up Sharply Cheese prices rose sharply during July and August as wholesale movement recovered and milk production gains stabilized. Early September prices on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were 20-24 cents per pound above the early May lows. However, any further seasonal rises probably will be quite modest and current levels might not hold. Surpluses of nonfat dry milk are available to boost cheese production and any additional cheese price rises could trigger a flood of powder into cheese production. Exports under the Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP) and even significant sales to the government under the support program have yet to bring the heavy stocks of nonfat dry milk under control. Commercial use of dairy products rose substantially in June-July, following a weak April-May. Most of the dramatic swings in 1997 commercial use, compared with a year earlier, were caused by pipeline stock adjustments that were the opposite of those taken a year earlier. Likely large pipeline holdings were cut during April-May this year, instead of being built as they were last year. Similarly, pipeline holdings probably were recovering during June-July, compared with steady to declining stocks a year earlier. For the first 7 months of 1997, commercial use of all products rose about 1 percent--fairly strong considering all factors but possibly disappointing in light of the strong economy. Food processor use of dairy ingredients may still be reacting to the high and unstable prices of 1996. Milk production in the 20 States rose more than 4 percent from the very weak levels of June-August 1996. Better planning enabled producers to avoid the 1996 forage problems and resulting collapse in milk per cow, even though the 1997 forage crop had its own troubles. In addition, declines in milk cow numbers have slowed slightly because of more new or expanded herds in a few key States. However, continuing short supplies of dairy quality forage, unfavorable milk-feed price ratios, and lackluster returns have kept milk production from doing much more than reversing last year's declines. August 1 commercial stocks of dairy products were more than 1 billion pounds, milk equivalent, higher than a year earlier. American cheese holdings were substantially higher than a year earlier but were not so heavy as to forestall price increases. On the other hand, manufacturers' stocks of nonfat dry milk were about twice the year-earlier level and well above the heavy stocks of 1995. Although DEIP sales have been large since midyear, many of these contracts covered shipments through autumn 1997 or winter 1998. Price support purchases of 27 million pounds of nonfat dry milk since May were the largest since 1994, although hardly large by the standards of most earlier years. Milk production during the last quarter of 1997 is expected to be only fractionally higher than the recovering levels of a year earlier. Forage supplies will be of mediocre quality and high priced, even though the silage crop looks promising in most areas. Milk-feed price ratios will be at levels normally associated with conservative concentrate feeding and below-trend growth in milk per cow. Although there probably will be a few more expanding herds, the combined effects of forage quality and prices and of recently lower returns is projected to keep declines in milk cow numbers near 1 percent. Dairy demand is expected to be modestly good during the rest of 1997, as the economy continues to grow. However, commercial use is not expected to be brisk enough to absorb the increase in milk output, pull stocks down, and generate much further price strength. Although DEIP sales certainly will buttress prices during autumn, the international market is not expected to generate a flurry of additional sales for autumn shipment. Prices of nonfat dry milk are not projected to post much seasonal rise, and cheese prices and manufacturing milk values may slip after an early autumn peak. Butter prices will be unsettled but may regain some of their August declines as the year-end holidays approach. Average prices of all milk are projected to be about $14 per cwt, significantly higher than during spring and summer but far below a year earlier. For all of 1997, milk production is expected to rise over 1 percent from a year earlier and fractionally from 1995. Expansion in milk output would only slightly exceed the projected rise in commercial use of milkfat but would be considerably more than growth in the sales of skim solids. Price support removals will be higher in 1997 but are projected to be only about 1.5 percent of production. Farm milk prices are expected to average $13.10 to $13.30 per cwt, down sharply from 1996's record but significantly above prices of 1993-95. Beef Prices Rebound Beef movement over the Labor Day weekend through mid-September was fairly positive. E-coli was largely relegated to the back pages if mentioned at all. Revised meat processing procedures will likely result in safer products in the future and extended shelf life for fresh beef, so important as the export market strengthens over the next year. Cattle and beef prices strengthened in mid-September, but continue to trade under the shadow of seasonally increasing meat supplies and uncertain domestic and international demand. Fed cattle marketings will remain large through fall following large early summer feedlot placements. Cattle on feed inventories on August 1 in the 7 monthly reporting States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head were up 19 percent from a year earlier, but up only 2 percent from 1995. However, cow slaughter, although increasing seasonally, remains well below year-earlier levels. Rains in most areas since early August have improved prospects for fall grazing, including small grain pastures. Dry conditions and an increasingly uncertain grain harvest likely caused larger numbers of heifers to be placed on feed in July through early August, rather than entering the breeding herd. Lower grain prices and improved forage prospects are likely to lead to continued low beef cow slaughter. Federally inspected cattle weights are averaging well above a year earlier as the proportion of cows, particularly beef cows, in the slaughter mix declines. Fed cattle marketings remain strong and feedlots are relatively current, but with a continued larger proportion of heifers in the slaughter mix. Specials in the fast-food market, as competition for market share increases, are helping to support the processing beef market. Boxed beef prices strengthened to near $107 per cwt in mid-September, well above the early summer lows near $100. However, seasonally rising pork supplies will increase pressure on beef prices, particularly as more pork is featured at retail. Declining prices for pork trimmings, as increased quantities seek a larger share of the processed meat market, will add additional pressure on 50 percent lean beef trimmings from fed cattle. Selected price statistics for poultry and eggs --------------------------------------------------------------------- Item Aug-96 Sep-96 Oct-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Poultry prices: Farm - liveweight Cents per dozen All Eggs 73.80 75.80 73.60 82.10 87.70 Cents per pound Broiler 40.30 40.20 39.50 40.40 41.60 Turkey 44.30 44.20 45.10 45.50 43.20 Wholesale Broilers 12-city avg, RTC 64.07 64.01 62.64 64.37 63.50 U.S. composite avg. 70.76 69.60 65.70 66.95 62.07 Georgia dock 65.07 65.21 64.42 64.83 64.29 Northeast Breast, boneless 201.43 189.50 169.43 169.92 156.40 Breast, Ribs on 98.10 92.11 82.16 84.95 75.58 Legs, whole 57.48 59.14 59.22 60.17 57.28 Leg quarters 42.31 44.53 45.29 45.60 37.74 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 71.24 70.83 71.43 70.63 63.36 Hens, 8-16 lb. 64.94 64.16 69.09 73.58 70.05 Breast 4-8 lb. 103.20 106.40 107.25 105.78 101.67 Drumsticks 31.55 33.91 35.44 34.78 35.30 Wings, full cut 37.14 39.57 41.13 43.22 46.00 Eggs, grade A, large, dozen Cents per dozen 12 city metro 92.11 94.32 89.21 103.32 106.38 New York 86.86 89.95 86.68 102.50 100.90 Price to retailer U.S. average Eggs 91.11 93.32 88.21 101.50 105.38 Cents per pound Broiler 72.07 72.01 70.64 72.60 71.50 Turkey 76.54 76.18 78.52 80.13 75.38 Retail price U.S. average Broiler Composite 152.30 158.00 152.90 151.50 154.20 Whole, fresh 99.00 100.60 102.10 100.30 100.20 Breast, bone-in 205.30 213.50 201.40 204.90 209.30 Legs, bone-in 125.20 129.90 128.50 123.50 125.60 Whole turkey, froz 108.60 106.50 107.40 98.10 102.00 Cents per dozen Eggs, grade A, lar 107.20 115.00 112.90 113.90 130.80 Price indexes: 1982-84 = 100 All poultry 154.50 155.80 157.10 157.30 157.80 Chicken, whole fresh 156.70 157.20 159.00 158.30 158.20 Parts, fresh and froze 155.40 157.50 158.50 161.40 161.50 Other poultry 152.60 153.30 154.40 150.10 152.30 Eggs 138.10 143.50 142.60 145.60 162.90 Spreads: Wholesale-to-retail: Cents per pound Broiler, composite 81.58 88.40 87.20 84.55 92.13 Retail-to-consumer: Broiler, whole 26.93 28.59 31.46 27.70 28.70 Turkey, whole 32.06 30.32 28.88 17.97 26.62 Cents per dozen Eggs 16.09 21.68 24.69 12.40 25.42 /* Preliminary Selected hatch, slaughter, and production statistics for poultry and eggs Item Aug-96 Sep-96 Oct-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 Hatchery operations: Eggs in incubators - First of the month Thousands Broiler 570,953 567,598 539,425 527,789 573,495 Turkey 36,157 32,048 32,333 31,668 33,667 Egg-type 28,879 27,792 30,634 28,787 30,770 Hatch Broiler chicks 690,838 658,976 652,232 631,142 695,011 Egg-type chicks 32,393 32,070 33,065 31,437 33,017 Placements Turkey poults 27,496 24,154 25,354 23,830 27,119 Broiler breeders 6,510 6,166 6,221 6,508 5,947 Egg-type breeders 186 231 233 210 215 Layers: In production Table egg 244,647 245,961 248,071 249,823 250,554 Hatching egg 52,138 51,735 51,125 51,781 53,115 All 296,785 297,696 299,196 301,604 303,669 Percent Being molted, first of 4.6 4.3 4.8 3.0 2.1 the month Molt complete 22.0 22.4 23.0 23.9 23.5 Thousands Light hen slaughter 6,649 6,803 8,141 5,871 8,072 Heavy hen slaughter 4,527 5,753 6,386 3,856 4,129 Eggs per 100 layers, first of the month Number Table egg 72.2 71.8 71.7 72.2 73.6 Hatching egg 60.9 61.0 60.2 60.5 60.3 All 70.2 69.9 69.7 70.2 71.3 Egg production Million dozen Table egg 455 441 462 456 475 Hatching egg 82 78 80 78 82 All 537 520 541 534 557 Eggs for breaking 129 125 143 119 126 Egg products produced Thousand pounds Liquid 98,683 91,313 113,038 91,350 91,523 Frozen 34,119 32,570 35,211 28,851 32,886 Dried 9,885 9,913 12,395 10,048 10,916 Federally inspected slaughter: Head Thousands Broiler 660,370 606,694 686,141 573,057 595,041 Turkey 26,774 24,267 28,051 25,884 22,005 Average liveweight Pounds Broiler 4.71 4.77 4.81 4.81 4.84 Turkey 22.85 23.28 23.74 22.87 23.87 Production Total liveweight Million pounds Broiler 3,111 2,896 3,303 2,757 2,877 Turkey 612 565 666 592 525 Certified ready to cook (RTC) Broiler 2,278 2,117 2,414 2,013 2,100 Turkey 482 444 523 468 411 Mature chicken 35 41 47 31 35 Beginning cold storage stocks: Total chicken 624 616 587 591 574 Total turkey 718 723 721 658 348 Eggs, frozen 13 15 15 13 10 /* Preliminary Selected price statistics for poultry and eggs Item Jan-97 Feb-97 Mar-97 Apr-97 May-97 Poultry prices: Farm - liveweight Cents per dozen All Eggs 75.80 75.70 71.80 65.80 64.30 Cents per pound Broiler 40.40 39.10 38.00 37.10 36.40 Turkey 38.60 36.40 37.80 39.50 41.20 Wholesale Broilers 12-city average, R 61.99 59.53 58.41 59.77 58.53 U.S. composite ave 63.57 64.00 62.35 61.50 60.55 Georgia dock 63.05 61.13 60.60 60.35 59.68 Northeast Breast, boneless 169.07 168.45 165.82 172.53 164.46 Breast, Ribs on 84.72 87.58 85.12 90.37 84.88 Legs, whole 52.27 50.80 50.49 48.62 48.08 Leg quarters 33.02 34.36 33.15 31.93 30.26 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 58.76 57.28 58.33 62.25 66.08 Hens, 8-16 lb. 59.71 57.84 59.26 62.93 66.64 Breast 4-8 lb. 95.18 95.30 96.33 94.00 94.95 Drumsticks 34.87 35.81 38.71 35.28 29.20 Wings, full cut 43.15 39.13 39.09 37.74 31.37 Eggs, grade A, large Cents per dozen 12 city metro 89.62 87.26 87.27 79.15 72.85 New York 86.30 82.03 86.31 75.55 72.30 Price to retailer U.S. average Cents per dozen Eggs 88.62 86.26 86.27 78.15 71.85 Cents per pound Broiler 69.99 67.53 66.41 67.77 66.53 Turkey 68.00 66.00 67.25 71.22 74.90 Retail price U.S. average Broiler Cents per pound Composite 152.40 152.80 149.30 148.80 151.90 Whole, fresh 101.60 100.80 100.90 100.20 100.70 Breast, bone-in 202.80 207.60 199.40 200.40 207.50 Legs, bone-in 126.50 123.90 123.10 121.50 122.10 Whole turkey, froz 106.30 106.70 104.70 103.20 104.50 Cents per dozen Eggs, grade A, lar 114.80 113.20 105.60 108.10 100.20 Price indexes: 1982-84 = 100 All poultry 158.20 157.90 156.30 155.40 156.60 Chicken, whole fresh 160.80 159.20 158.90 158.50 158.60 Parts, fresh and froze 159.30 160.00 156.90 155.10 157.20 Other poultry 155.40 154.70 154.40 155.00 155.60 Eggs 149.00 147.70 141.00 140.00 133.40 Spreads: Wholesale-to-retail: Cents per pound Broiler, composite 88.83 88.80 86.95 87.30 91.35 Retail-to-consumer: Broiler, whole 31.61 33.27 34.49 32.43 34.17 Turkey, whole 38.30 40.70 37.45 31.98 29.60 Cents per dozen Eggs 26.18 26.94 19.33 29.95 28.35 /* Preliminary Selected hatch, slaughter, and production statistics for poultry and Item Jan-97 Feb-97 Mar-97 Apr-97 May-97 Hatchery operations: Eggs in incubators - First of the month Thousands Broiler 582,618 575,711 591,898 583,986 591,820 Turkey 34,055 35,802 35,040 37,232 36,536 Egg-type 30,203 31,801 33,211 35,162 36,426 Hatch Broiler chicks 700,467 631,259 716,374 690,790 720,610 Egg-type chicks 33,331 35,318 37,648 38,746 38,891 Placements Turkey poults 27,121 27,145 27,610 28,220 29,120 Broiler breeders 6,393 5,913 6,439 6,122 7,056 Egg-type breeders 208 219 206 316 268 Layers: In production Thousands Table egg 249,494 248,929 248,821 247,463 245,265 Hatching egg 53,799 54,042 54,423 55,203 55,970 All 303,293 302,971 303,244 302,666 301,235 Percent Being molted, first of the month 3.8 5.1 2.4 3.1 5.3 Molt complete 22.3 21.6 22.9 21.8 19.8 Thousands Light hen slaughter 9,787 7,577 9,405 11,052 10,429 Heavy hen slaughter 5,173 4,875 4,639 4,893 5,314 Eggs per 100 layers, f Number Table egg 72.9 70.9 72.0 72.6 71.1 Hatching egg 59.5 59.2 60.2 60.7 60.4 All 70.5 68.8 69.9 70.4 69.1 Egg production Million dozen Table egg 464 415 465 445 454 Hatching egg 82 75 85 83 87 All 546 491 550 528 541 Eggs for breaking 130 115 120 138 136 Egg products produced Thousand pounds Liquid 93,232 88,820 97,233 103,036 103,616 Frozen 35,773 26,733 26,093 33,931 30,116 Dried 12,393 10,396 11,170 11,334 12,802 Federally inspected slaughter: Head Thousands Broiler 661,931 588,238 608,291 660,234 665,120 Turkey 22,917 20,645 21,447 23,544 24,129 Average liveweight Pounds Broiler 4.88 4.85 4.84 4.86 4.81 Turkey 24.61 24.17 23.82 24.29 24.68 Production Total liveweight Million pounds Broiler 3,230 2,853 2,943 3,209 3,202 Turkey 564 499 511 572 595 Certified ready to cook (RTC) Broiler 2,363 2,093 2,172 2,362 2,346 Turkey 442 392 402 451 468 Mature chicken 44 38 41 45 47 Beginning cold storage stocks: Total chicken 647 676 697 715 744 Total turkey 328 401 446 496 543 Eggs, frozen 10 11 11 9 8 /* Preliminary Selected price statistics for poultry and eggs Item Jun-97 Jul-97 /* Poultry prices: Farm - liveweight Cents per dozen All Eggs 59.70 65.70 Cents per pound Broiler 37.40 40.10 Turkey 41.50 41.10 Wholesale Broilers 12-city average, R 59.05 63.04 U.S. composite ave 63.39 68.91 Georgia dock 59.99 61.70 Northeast Breast, boneless 184.94 192.71 Breast, Ribs on 95.63 98.68 Legs, whole 47.93 48.39 Leg quarters 29.28 31.99 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 66.35 65.48 Hens, 8-16 lb. 68.60 68.59 Breast 4-8 lb. 98.10 93.89 Drumsticks 25.91 27.60 Wings, full cut 31.51 35.63 Eggs, grade A, largeCents per dozen 12 city metro 69.16 84.11 New York 68.40 81.90 Price to retailer U.S. average Eggs 68.16 83.11 Cents per pound Broiler 67.05 71.04 Turkey 75.78 75.36 Retail price U.S. average Broiler Composite 151.90 153.40 Whole, fresh 99.30 100.50 Breast, bone-in 205.20 207.30 Legs, bone-in 124.30 125.50 Whole turkey, froz 107.80 107.40 Cents per dozen Eggs, grade A, lar 95.20 97.90 Price indexes: 1982-84 = 100 All poultry 156.70 157.90 Chicken, whole fresh 156.70 158.80 Parts, fresh and froze 158.50 159.20 Other poultry 156.60 157.70 Eggs 128.80 132.90 Spreads: Wholesale-to-retail: Cents per pound Broiler, composite 88.51 84.49 Retail-to-consumer: Broiler, whole 32.25 29.46 Turkey, whole 32.02 32.04 Cents per dozen Eggs 27.04 14.79 /* Preliminary Selected hatch, slaughter, and production statistics for poultry and Item Jun-97 Jul-97 /* Hatchery operations: Eggs in incubators - First of the month Thousands Broiler 596,376 587,661 Turkey 36,781 38,585 Egg-type 33,414 29,947 Hatch Broiler chicks 702,511 709,150 Egg-type chicks 36,955 33,954 Placements Turkey poults 28,380 30,092 Broiler breeders 6,008 7,332 Egg-type breeders 256 199 Layers: In production Table egg 243,530 249,000 Hatching egg 55,897 51,500 All 299,427 300,500 Percent Being molted, 4.4 4.8 first of the month Molt complete 20.8 21.1 Thousands Light hen slaughter 9,722 8,603 Heavy hen slaughter 5,501 5,382 Eggs per 100 layers, Number first of the month Table egg 72.2 71.5 Hatching egg 60.2 60.6 All 70.0 69.4 Egg production Million dozen Table egg 438 450 Hatching egg 85 87 All 522 537 Eggs for breaking 132 136 Egg products produced Thousand pounds Liquid 103,664 102,064 Frozen 31,286 34,224 Dried 11,792 10,253 Federally inspected slaughter: Head Thousands Broiler 639,730 665,777 Turkey 25,001 26,512 Average liveweight Pounds Broiler 4.77 4.69 Turkey 24.09 23.43 Production Total liveweight Million pounds Broiler 3,052 3,120 Turkey 602 621 Certified ready to cook (RTC) Broiler 2,239 2,296 Turkey 483 490 Mature chicken 47 45 Beginning cold storage stocks: Total chicken 731 712 Total turkey 612 668 Eggs, frozen 8 9 /* Preliminary Egg supply 1/ --------------------------------------------------------------------- Production Beginning Breaking Imports Total Year stocks egg use supply --------------------------------------------------------------------- Million dozen Total egg 1995 6,215.6 14.9 --- 4.1 6,234.6 1996 I 1,570.6 11.2 --- 1.5 1,583.3 II 1,562.7 9.8 --- 1.6 1,574.1 III 1,593.5 9.6 --- 1.2 1,604.3 IV 1,631.8 11.9 --- 1.0 1,644.7 Year 6,358.6 11.2 --- 5.4 6,375.2 1997 I 1586.8 8.5 --- 1.9 1,597.2 II 1591.2 6.5 --- 1.5 1,599.2 III 3/ 1610.0 6.5 --- 1.0 1,617.5 IV 3/ 1655.0 8.0 --- 1.0 1,664.0 Year 3 6442.9 8.5 --- 5.4 6,456.8 1998 I 3/ 1605.0 10.0 --- 1.0 1,616.0 II 3/ 1615.0 10.0 --- 1.0 1,626.0 Year 3 6580.0 10.0 --- 4.0 6,594.0 Shell eggs: 1995 6215.6 0.1 1,427.7 3.1 4,791.1 1996 I 1,570.6 0.8 342.5 0.8 1,229.6 II 1,562.7 0.5 390.1 1.3 1,174.4 III 1,593.5 0.7 389.7 0.9 1,205.3 IV 1,631.8 0.6 388.4 0.5 1,244.5 Year 6,358.6 0.8 1,510.8 3.5 4,852.1 1997 I 1586.8 0.8 364.7 1.4 1,224.3 II 1591.2 --- 406.1 1.1 1,186.2 III 3/ 1610.0 --- 425.0 0.7 1,185.7 IV 3/ 1655.0 --- 425.0 0.7 1,230.7 Year / 6,442.9 0.8 1,620.7 3.0 4,826.0 1998 Year / 6,580.0 --- 1715.0 3.0 4,868.0 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Shell eggs and approximate shell-egg equivalent of egg products. 3/ Forecast Egg utilization 1/ --------------------------------------------------------------------- Exports Hatching Ending Consumption Year 2/ egg use stocks Total Per capita --------------------------------------------------------------------- Million dozen Number Total eggs: 1995 208.9 847.2 11.2 5,167.3 235.7 1996 I 59.3 217.4 9.8 1,296.7 58.8 II 65.6 217.2 9.6 1,281.7 58.0 III 66.0 215.8 11.9 1,310.6 59.1 IV 62.2 214.3 8.5 1,359.7 61.2 Year 253.1 864.7 8.5 5,248.8 237.1 1997 I 61.7 220.3 6.5 1,308.7 58.8 II 50.3 225.8 6.5 1,316.5 59.0 III 3/ 60.0 225.0 8.0 1,324.5 59.2 IV 3/ 63.0 225.0 10.0 1,366.0 60.9 Year 3 235.0 896.2 10.0 5,315.7 238.0 1998 I 3/ 62 230 10 1,314.0 58.5 II 3/ 63 240 10 1,313.0 58.3 Year 3 255 940 10 5,389.0 239.1 Shell eggs: 1995 109.0 847.2 0.8 3,834.1 174.9 1996 I 29.6 217.4 0.5 982.2 44.5 II 26.3 217.2 0.7 930.1 42.1 III 28.4 215.8 0.6 960.6 43.4 IV 29.6 214.3 0.8 999.8 45.0 Year 113.8 864.7 0.8 3,872.7 175.0 1997 I 24.6 220.3 --- 979.4 44.0 II 21.7 225.8 --- 938.7 42.1 III 3/ 26.0 225.0 --- 934.7 41.8 IV 3/ 28.0 225.0 --- 977.7 43.6 Year / 100.3 896.2 --- 3,829.6 171.5 1998 Year / 115.0 940.0 --- 3,813.0 169.2 U.S. egg exports to major importers 1/ January - June Country June 1996 1997 1000 dozen Japan 3,740 32,292 26,235 Canada 4,073 17,059 21,751 Mexico 996 24,211 18,831 Hong Kong 4,220 26,960 16,044 Netherlands 86 3,811 5,419 Germany 331 1,715 2,572 Russia 73 659 2,151 U. Arab Emirates 268 4,823 2,000 Czech. Republic 207 69 1,842 Jamaica 275 1,483 1,636 Belgium 0 845 1,554 Korea 259 1,213 1,452 United Kingdom 327 856 1,182 Malaysia 15 0 829 Trinidad 137 604 709 Norway 0 389 637 Brazil 2 973 485 Colombia 29 458 458 Nicaragua 71 1,251 411 Switzerland 0 38 409 Other 919 5,298 5,756 Total 16,027 124,969 111,953 1/ Shell and shell equivalent of egg products. U.S. mature chicken exports to major importers January - June Country June 1996 1997 1000 lb. Hong Kong 12,643 25,561 90,142 Russia 972 7,608 16,727 Canada 2,452 17,926 16,208 Japan 608 7,885 15,002 South Africa 2,351 969 8,167 Haiti 829 3,396 5,518 Poland 906 2,298 5,199 Mexico 368 3,582 4,076 Surinam 518 1,959 2,696 Singapore 269 177 2,515 Jamaica 205 880 2,365 Korea 97 193 2,208 China 0 1,174 2,166 Azerbaijan 160 515 1,537 New Caledonia 270 916 1,409 St. Lucia 196 912 1,333 Germany 0 72 878 Saudi Arabia 258 145 693 United Arab E. 104 2,104 662 N. Antilles 118 248 630 Other 1,542 8,329 7,153 Total 24,867 86,848 187,286 Poultry supply, carcass weight 1/ --------------------------------------------------- Produc Net RTC Begin- Year Federal Other produc- ning Im- Total Inspected tion stocks ports supply ----------------- Million pounds ------------ Broilers: 1995 25,021 39 24,827 458 1 25,287 1996 I 6,610 9 6,557 560 1 7,118 II 6,571 9 6,518 688 1 7,206 III 6,628 9 6,575 651 1 7,227 IV 6,527 9 6,475 573 1 7,049 Year 26,336 38 26,124 560 4 26,687 1997 I 6,628 9 6,573 641 1 7,215 II 6,948 10 6,890 708 1 7,599 III 2/ 6,950 10 6,893 703 1 7,597 IV 2/ 6,900 10 6,843 650 1 7,494 Year 2/ 27,425 39 27,199 641 4 27,844 1998 I 2/ 7,100 10 7,040 675 0 7,715 II 2/ 7,350 11 7,288 700 1 7,989 Year 2/ 29,200 42 28,953 675 3 29,631 Other chicken: 1995 494 3 496 14 3 512 1996 I 129 1 130 7 0 137 II 127 1 128 12 0 140 III 119 1 120 14 0 134 IV 113 1 114 14 0 128 Year 487 5 491 7 0 498 1997 I 123 1 124 6 0 130 II 138 1 140 7 0 147 III 2/ 130 1 131 8 0 139 IV 2/ 125 1 126 10 0 136 Year 2/ 516 5 521 6 0 527 1998 I 2/ 130 1 131 10 0 141 II 2/ 140 1 141 5 0 146 Year 2/ 535 6 540 10 0 550 Turkey: 1995 5,129 4 5,069 254 2 5,326 1996 I 1,270 1 1,255 271 0 1,526 II 1,378 1 1,362 445 0 1,807 III 1,415 1 1,398 680 0 2,078 IV 1,403 1 1,386 721 0 2,107 Year 5,466 3 5,401 271 1 5,673 1997 I 1,235 1 1,220 328 0 1,549 II 1,402 1 1,385 496 0 1,882 III 2/ 1,400 1 1,383 668 0 2,051 IV 2/ 1,425 1 1,408 725 0 2,133 Year 2/ 5,462 3 5,397 328 1 5,726 1998 I 2/ 1,300 1 1,284 325 0 1,609 II 2/ 1,450 1 1,432 425 0 1,857 Year 2/ 5,725 3 5,656 325 1 5,982 Total poultry: 1995 30,644 46 30,393 727 6 31,125 1996 I 8,009 11 7,941 839 1 8,781 II 8,075 12 8,007 1,145 1 9,154 III 8,162 11 8,092 1,345 1 9,439 IV 8,043 11 7,974 1,309 1 9,284 Year 32,289 46 32,015 839 5 32,859 1997 I 7,986 12 7,917 975 1 8,894 II 8,488 12 8,415 1,212 1 9,627 III 2/ 8,480 12 8,406 1,379 1 9,787 IV 2/ 8,450 12 8,377 1,385 1 9,763 Year 2/ 33,404 48 33,116 975 5 34,096 1998 I 2/ 8,530 12 8,455 1,010 0 9,465 II 2/ 8,940 12 8,861 1,130 1 9,992 Year 2/ 35,460 51 35,148 1,010 4 36,162 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Forecast Poultry utilization, carcass and retail weight 1/ ----------------------------------------------------------- Per capita Total consumption Year Ex- Ending disap- Carcass Retail ports stocks pearance weight weight ----------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Pounds Broilers: 1995 3,894 560 20,832 79.2 68.8 1996 I 1,075 688 5,355 20.2 17.6 II 1,057 651 5,498 20.7 18.0 III 1,121 573 5,532 20.8 18.1 IV 1,167 641 5,241 19.7 17.1 Year 4,420 641 21,626 81.4 70.8 1997 I 1,090 708 5,417 20.3 17.6 II 1,098 703 5,798 21.7 18.8 III 2/ 1,170 650 5,777 21.5 18.7 IV 2/ 1,272 675 5,547 20.6 17.9 Year 2/ 4,630 675 22,539 84.1 73.1 1998 I 2/ 1,100 700 5,915 21.9 19.1 II 2/ 1,100 700 6,189 22.9 19.9 Year 2/ 4,750 750 24,131 89.2 77.5 Other chicken: 1995 99 7 406 1.5 1.5 1996 I 39 12 86 0.3 0.3 II 47 14 79 0.3 0.3 III 78 14 41 0.2 0.2 IV 100 6 22 0.1 0.1 Year 265 6 228 0.9 0.9 1997 I 95 7 28 0.1 0.1 II 92 8 46 0.2 0.2 III 2/ 90 10 39 0.1 0.1 IV 2/ 100 10 26 0.1 0.1 Year 2/ 377 10 139 0.5 0.5 1998 I 2/ 95 5 41 0.2 0.2 II 2/ 95 10 41 0.2 0.2 Year 2/ 388 5 157 0.6 0.6 Turkey: 1995 348 271 4,706 17.9 17.9 1996 I 96 445 985 3.7 3.7 II 93 680 1,035 3.9 3.9 III 124 721 1,233 4.6 4.6 IV 125 328 1,654 6.2 6.2 Year 438 328 4,907 18.5 18.5 1997 I 128 496 925 3.5 3.5 II 149 668 1,065 4.0 4.0 III 2/ 135 725 1,191 4.4 4.4 IV 2/ 135 325 1,673 6.2 6.2 Year 2/ 547 325 4,854 18.1 18.1 1998 I 2/ 135 425 1,049 3.9 3.9 II 2/ 150 600 1,107 4.1 4.1 Year 2/ 575 325 5,082 18.8 18.8 Total poultry: 1995 4,342 839 25,944 98.6 88.3 1996 I 1,210 1,145 6,426 24.3 21.6 II 1,198 1,345 6,611 24.9 22.2 III 1,323 1,309 6,807 25.6 22.9 IV 1,392 975 6,918 25.9 23.4 Year 5,123 975 26,761 100.8 90.2 1997 I 1,313 1,212 6,370 23.8 21.2 II 1,339 1,379 6,909 25.8 23.0 III 2/ 1,395 1,385 7,007 26.1 23.3 IV 2/ 1,507 1,010 7,246 26.9 24.2 Year 2/ 5,554 1,010 27,532 102.7 91.7 1998 I 2/ 1,330 1,130 7,005 26.0 23.1 II 2/ 1,345 1,310 7,337 27.2 24.2 Year 2/ 5,713 1,080 29,369 108.6 96.9 Year 2/ 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Forecast Poultry and eggs costs and returns 1/ Production Wholesale costs Total Price Net Year Feed Total costs 2/ 3/ returns Market Eggs (cents/dozen) 1995: I 26.0 44.2 64.7 72.4 7.7 II 27.4 45.6 66.1 66.7 0.6 III 29.4 47.6 68.1 77.7 9.6 IV 32.5 50.7 71.2 88.7 17.5 Year 28.8 47.0 67.5 76.5 8.9 1996: I 37.0 55.2 75.7 92.0 16.4 II 43.0 61.2 81.7 84.0 2.4 III 44.1 62.3 82.8 90.2 7.5 IV 34.3 52.5 73.0 99.4 26.4 Year 39.5 57.7 78.2 90.5 13.3 1997: I 32.7 50.9 71.4 88.1 16.7 II 35.6 53.8 74.3 73.7 -0.6 III 33.1 51.3 71.8 81.5 9.7 Broilers (cents/lb) 1995: I 15.0 25.3 47.4 51.7 4.3 II 15.5 25.8 48.1 53.5 5.5 III 16.3 26.7 49.2 60.7 11.5 IV 17.3 27.7 50.5 59.6 9.1 Year 16.0 26.4 48.8 56.4 7.6 1996: I 19.6 29.9 53.5 56.3 2.8 II 21.5 31.9 56.0 61.0 5.0 III 23.6 34.0 58.8 64.2 5.4 IV 20.9 31.2 55.2 63.5 8.3 Year 21.4 31.7 55.9 61.2 5.4 1997: I 18.6 28.9 52.1 60.0 7.9 II 19.9 30.2 53.9 59.1 5.3 III 19.6 29.9 53.5 62.8 9.3 Turkeys (cents/lb) 1995: I 20.4 34.1 59.0 59.4 0.4 II 21.1 34.8 59.8 61.6 1.8 III 22.3 36.0 61.3 68.9 7.6 IV 23.8 37.5 63.1 74.3 11.2 Year 21.9 35.6 60.8 66.2 5.4 1996: I 27.2 40.9 67.5 64.5 -3.0 II 30.2 43.9 71.2 65.8 -5.3 III 35.0 48.7 77.1 67.4 -9.8 IV 33.3 47.0 75.1 69.1 -5.9 Year 31.6 45.3 72.9 66.8 -6.1 1997: I 27.2 40.9 67.4 58.1 -9.3 II 28.2 41.9 68.7 65.0 -3.7 III 29.6 43.3 70.5 66.2 -4.3 1/ Estimated costs and prices are weighted by monthly production. 2/ Based on farm cost converted to wholesale market value. 3/ Wholesale prices used are the 12-metro egg price, 12-city weighted average broiler price, and a weighted average of 8-16 lb young hens and 14-22 lb toms in Central, Western and Eastern Regions. U.S. broiler exports to major importers January - June Country June 1996 1997 1000 lb. Russia 166,869 854,360 1,012,167 Hong Kong 64,997 493,523 410,494 Mexico 18,994 101,539 117,531 Latvia 26,921 49,511 97,987 Japan 23,844 118,448 95,622 China 14,143 86,205 67,314 Canada 10,705 36,463 55,238 Poland 9,904 58,934 53,139 South Afric 13,851 41,705 49,603 Jamaica 4,613 26,695 25,657 Estonia 748 17,088 17,890 Singapore 2,670 25,903 17,060 Guatemala 1,446 8,045 12,089 U. Arab E. 1,232 23,424 9,105 Ukraine 4,442 18,715 8,588 Azerbaijan 3,871 495 8,208 Haiti 1,939 5,562 7,651 Colombia 1,202 13,520 6,987 N. Antilles 1,141 7,250 6,723 Fr. Polynes 1,688 8,385 5,988 Other 20,518 136,253 102,826 Total 395,738 2,132,025 2,187,866 U.S. turkey exports to major importers January - June Country June 1996 1997 1000 lb. Mexico 16,426 70,132 87,293 Hong Kong 8,486 8,061 57,501 Russia 12,359 51,969 39,517 Korea 2,107 12,914 12,105 South Afric 2,331 1,418 9,365 Poland 1,502 17,429 9,310 Colombia 1,361 333 7,746 Taiwan 1,237 4,208 6,730 Singapore 941 368 4,110 Japan 843 609 3,689 China 878 999 2,858 Canada 514 1,758 2,762 United King 0 527 2,618 N. Antilles 477 23 2,434 Fr. Polynes 269 124 2,273 W. Samoa 293 203 2,184 Ghana 199 1,893 2,053 Saudi Arabi 467 259 2,004 Jamaica 312 1,217 1,893 Haiti 211 1,469 1,694 Other 3,688 12,891 16,618 Total 54,901 188,805 276,757 PRODUCTION INDICATORS Aug-96 Jun-97 Jul-97 Aug-97 Cattle: On feed - 7 States, 1,000+ Hd 6,337 8,231 7,679 7,556 Net placements 1,928 1,180 1,709 NA Marketings 1,653 1,732 1,832 NA Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 570,953 596,376 587,661 588,603 Chicks hatched (000)/2 690,838 702,511 709,150 715,000 Hatching egg layers/1 49,591 53,586 52,963 54,228 Pullets placed (000) 6,510 6,008 7,332 NA Hvy-type hen slaughter 4,527 5,501 5,382 5,000 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 36,157 36,781 38,585 34,956 Poults placed (000) 27,496 28,380 30,092 26,377 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.)/2 455 438 450 450 Table egg layers, (000)/1 244,521 243,898 243,146 242,937 Table eggs/100 layers/1 72.2 72.2 71.5 71.9 Chicks hatched (000) 32,393 36,955 33,954 32,000 Lt.-type hen slaughter 6,649 9,722 8,603 7,500 ESTIMATED RETURNS Sep-96 Jul-97 Aug-97 Sep-97 /* Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 63.18 61.29 65.83 67.26 Selling price 71.12 63.80 65.19 65.75 Net margin 7.94 2.51 -0.64 -1.51 N. Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price /3 49.22 47.57 47.12 45.88 Selling price 54.53 58.66 54.90 50.00 Net margin 5.31 11.09 7.78 4.12 Broiler Wholesale cost 58.66 54.53 53.45 52.48 Wholesale price 64.01 63.04 63.25 61.00 Net margin 5.35 8.51 9.80 8.52 Turkey Wholesale cost 77.04 70.86 71.18 69.37 Wholesale price 67.18 66.36 65.73 66.00 Net margin -9.86 -4.50 -5.45 -3.37 Egg Wholesale cost 81.03 72.57 71.07 71.80 Wholesale price 94.32 84.11 77.32 84.00 Net margin 13.29 11.54 6.25 12.20 /1 First of the month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* Estimate LIVESTOCK PRICES Sep-96 Jul-97 Aug-97 Sep-97 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 71.12 63.80 65.19 65.75 Nebraska Direct 68.89 64.77 65.96 66.25 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 31.91 38.63 36.31 34.00 Utility boning 30.19 37.75 35.44 33.00 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 65.72 94.75 92.86 90.00 600-650 lb. 62.50 89.43 85.00 86.00 750-800 lb. 63.70 82.21 80.53 80.00 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 57.50 87.86 83.09 85.00 700-750 lb. 59.48 79.57 77.63 78.00 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 54.87 58.80 54.06 49.25 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 54.53 58.66 54.90 50.00 Sows 6 Markets 48.95 47.70 46.06 42.50 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) 33.29 NA NA NA Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 84.40 79.69 89.50 85.00 Ewes, Good 41.45 36.25 51.38 42.00 Feeder lambs, Choice 91.80 98.00 100.94 95.00 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES Sep-96 Jul-97 Aug-97 Sep-97 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 3.39 2.44 2.60 2.65 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 4.66 3.50 3.77 3.80 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 276.36 273.58 273.32 298.00 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 95.70 106.00 106.00 95.70 Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 92.10 98.40 101.00 92.10 /* Estimates WHOLESALE PRICES Sep-96 Jul-97 Aug-97 Sep-97 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 105.93 102.38 105.14 104.25 Choice 1-3 700-850# 104.47 102.43 104.49 103.00 Select 1-3 700-850# 99.32 96.39 96.39 95.00 Cutter Cow 57.64 70.09 68.46 63.50 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 80.42 98.32 90.65 87.50 Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 86.19 90.69 88.00 84.00 Hide & offal value 9.92 8.18 8.27 8.52 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 178.07 164.93 168.50 180.00 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 74.54 78.21 76.50 71.50 Loins, 14-18 lb. 112.28 122.53 119.28 115.50 Bellies, 12-14 lb. 68.12 86.70 85.43 74.75 Hams, 20-26 lb. 82.65 68.37 64.25 64.50 Trimmings, 72% fresh 68.85 71.45 68.00 60.50 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. down, Choice 173.75 171.75 181.63 NA 55-65 lb., Choice 177.25 166.75 180.88 NA Broilers 12 City Avg. 64.01 63.04 63.25 61.00 Georgia dock 65.21 61.70 62.17 61.00 Northeast Breast, boneless 189.50 192.71 195.56 180.00 Breast, Ribs on 92.11 98.68 97.87 85.00 Legs, whole 59.14 48.39 48.48 48.00 Leg quarters 44.53 31.99 30.83 31.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 70.83 65.48 64.88 65.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 64.16 68.59 68.14 68.00 Drumsticks 33.91 27.60 26.92 28.00 Wings, full cut 39.57 35.63 33.47 35.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 94.32 84.11 77.32 84.00 New York 89.95 81.90 74.69 83.00 /* Estimate RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Aug-96 Jun-97 Jul-97 Aug-97 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 281.1 277.6 279.2 281.0 Beef - All Fresh 250.6 251.7 250.1 251.9 Ground Beef 139.1 140.8 140.2 139.4 Rib roast 492.5 503.7 506.7 516.3 T-bone steak 597.1 586.2 593.4 578.0 Pork 231.4 233.7 232.7 236.0 Bacon 268.2 269.4 271.8 275.5 Chops 350.2 357.3 350.2 355.8 Picnic 126.6 124.7 129.0 127.7 Chicken - Composite 152.3 151.9 153.4 149.5 Whole, fresh 99.0 99.3 100.5 98.8 Breast - bone in 205.3 205.2 207.3 202.7 Leg quarter 125.2 124.3 125.5 121.6 Turkey; whole frozen 108.6 107.8 107.4 109.2 Eggs, Grade A, Large 107.2 95.2 97.9 106.1 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 157.3 160.3 160.5 160.8 All food 153.7 156.6 157.0 157.6 All meat 141.8 144.5 144.6 145.5 Beef & veal 134.4 136.4 136.5 137.0 Pork 153.5 157.4 157.5 158.6 Poultry 154.5 156.7 157.9 155.6 Dairy Products 144.6 144.1 143.3 143.4 Fluid milk & cream 144.4 143.6 142.0 141.7 Manufactured products 145.5 145.2 145.4 145.8 Price Spreads Cents/lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 22.7 22.9 22.4 23.2 Wholesale to retail 121.2 121.5 122.1 119.8 Farmers share (%) 49.0 48.0 48.0 49.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 32.2 31.8 30.1 38.2 Wholesale to retail 104.8 110.7 109.3 112.7 Farmers share (%) 41.0 39.0 40.0 36.0 Poultry and eggs Wholesale to retail Broilers 81.6 88.5 84.5 84.9 Retail to consumer Turkey 32.1 32.0 32.0 34.5 Eggs 16.1 27.0 14.8 29.8 MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - Sep-96 Sep-97 Jul-97 Aug-97 Sep-97 /* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 19,335 19,184 2,257 2,233 2,163 Veal 272 247 27 26 28 Pork 12,636 12,472 1,353 1,351 1,485 Lamb 198 190 20 19 19 Total red meat 32,441 32,093 3,657 3,629 3,695 Broilers 19,809 20,471 2,296 2,250 2,350 Other chicken 374 386 45 40 40 Turkeys 4,063 4,038 490 450 460 Total poultry 24,246 24,895 2,831 2,740 2,850 Total meat & poultry 56,687 56,988 6,488 6,369 6,545 Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 27,683 27,557 3,183 3,131 3,030 Steers 13,849 13,555 1,593 1,581 1,490 Heifers 8,068 8,690 1,012 966 933 Beef Cows 2,953 2,575 284 280 282 Dairy Cows 2,266 2,199 231 240 254 Bulls and stags 547 539 63 65 70 Calves 1,305 1,166 134 127 137 Sheep 3,122 2,901 306 300 309 Hogs 68,562 66,847 7,309 7,337 8,055 Barrows & gilts 65,330 64,089 6,989 7,030 7,715 Sows 2,705 2,298 269 257 285 Broilers 5,692,011 5,794,321 665,777 640,000 665,000 Turkeys 217,351 214,695 26,512 25,000 25,500 Sep-96 Jun-97 Jul-97 Aug-97 Sep-97 /* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 708 703 715 721 724 Calves 208 223 207 208 205 Sheep 61 69 67 64 64 Hogs 184 189 186 184 185 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 305.2 278.7 305.5 301.3 NA Pork 322.9 410.8 398.3 382.3 NA Bellies 19.0 55.3 52.3 33.6 NA Hams 83.4 98.6 99.7 106.1 NA Total chicken 616.0 731.5 711.7 660.3 NA Turkey 723.2 611.8 667.7 714.3 NA Frozen eggs 15.0 8.4 8.6 9.3 NA /* Estimates U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS May-97 Jun-97 Jan - Jan - Jun-96 Jun-97 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 75,746 63,411 234,998 318,501 New Zealand 81,119 88,463 319,673 365,600 Canada 56,738 57,249 273,513 353,223 Brazil 8,715 8,664 39,960 49,437 Argentina 15,021 12,272 77,345 69,319 Central America 10,218 4,732 55,168 46,845 Other 8,525 9,103 32,614 49,039 Total 256,082 243,894 1,033,271 1,251,963 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 92,346 81,243 581,093 504,731 Canada 21,844 21,445 151,711 126,675 Mexico 24,487 27,618 69,278 125,683 Korea, Rep. 15,120 19,561 109,745 118,247 Caribbean 810 1,018 6,159 6,409 Other 14,265 17,179 78,590 86,042 Total 168,872 168,064 996,576 967,786 Cattle Imports Mexico 41,681 28,243 219,864 293,878 Canada 130,464 93,711 852,810 700,804 Over 700 lbs. 111,381 87,540 766,520 603,857 500-700 lbs. 13,324 2,371 54,341 68,646 Total 172,145 121,954 1,072,707 994,689 Cattle Exports Mexico 13,934 16,839 41,619 100,278 Canada 3,124 2,009 19,071 17,730 Total 17,697 19,747 76,702 121,370 Lamb Imports Australia 3,345 3,092 13,595 18,228 New Zealand 2,415 2,505 12,263 15,808 Total 5,884 5,768 26,155 34,571 Mutton Imports 2,004 1,630 10,604 13,887 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Customs Service YTD imports under WTO 9/15/96 9/07/97 % Chg Canada 343,794 381,374 1093.1% TRQ Countries 657,698 726,827 1051.1% Australia 274,240 310,676 1328.6% New Zealand 304,185 340,005 1177.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------ May-97 Jun-97 Jan - Jan - Jun-96 Jun-97 Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lb. Canada 34,188 34,093 208,816 204,199 Denmark 8,371 6,803 60,687 67,803 Poland 1,293 1,099 5,053 6,724 Hungary 1,197 737 4,569 4,818 Netherlands 359 526 5,033 3,812 Other 3,960 2,846 14,848 20,310 Total 49,368 46,104 299,006 307,666 Pork Exports Japan 44,190 43,789 309,961 217,496 Canada 11,820 12,035 48,985 60,948 Mexico 6,482 6,314 24,329 33,058 Caribbean 1,172 1,250 4,880 5,448 Other 24,785 24,545 146,223 146,277 Total 88,450 87,934 534,379 463,227 Hog Imports Head Canada 289,595 226,761 1,260,755 1,509,896 Under 110 lb 110,330 81,399 368,202 492,583 Total 289,595 227,205 1,260,919 1,510,604 Hog Exports Total 6,341 3,112 37,869 27,646 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 19,789 23,844 118,448 95,622 Mexico 20,619 18,994 101,539 117,531 Hong Kong 71,817 64,997 493,523 410,494 Singapore 2,001 2,670 25,903 17,060 Canada 11,544 10,705 36,463 55,238 Former USSR 198,031 167,109 854,360 1,012,458 Total 400,393 395,738 2,132,025 2,187,866 Turkey Exports Mexico 14,146 16,426 70,132 87,293 S. Korea 2,975 2,107 12,914 12,105 Hong Kong 8,695 8,486 8,061 57,501 Total 47,106 54,901 188,805 276,757 Shell thousand dz. Egg Exports 7,285 8,173 55,872 46,297 MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS Aug-96 Jun-97 Jul-97 Aug-97 Milk production Production - 21 States, Mil. lb 10,786 11,410 11,443 11,260 Milk cow number - 21 States, Thou 7,802 7,738 7,747 7,744 Milk per cow - 21 States, Lb 1,382 1,475 1,477 1,454 Production - U.S., Mil. lb 12,628 13,351 13,337 13,118 Milk prices: Dol./cwt All milk 15.90 12.40 12.20 12.70 Milk for fluid use 16.00 12.40 12.30 12.70 Manuf. grade milk 14.60 10.70 10.80 11.60 Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 14.94 10.74 10.86 12.07 Wholesale prices: cents/lb Grade A butter 145.5 105.5 102.7 102.5 Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 167.6 117.9 123.3 137.6 Barrels 160.5 112.5 113.3 129.4 Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 130.9 107.9 107.7 107.2 International prices: $/metric ton Butter 1,744 1,725 1,700 1,819 Nonfat dry milk 1,863 1,720 1,661 1,625 Beginning stocks: Mil. lb Commercial butter 30.9 61.8 58.9 61.7 Commercial American cheese 397.6 445.2 463.2 464.4 Other cheese 138.9 138.7 140.4 137.3 Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 76.8 151.2 173.3 158.7 All commercial (mf. basis) 5,543 6,650 6,779 6,824 All commercial (ss. basis) 6,371 7,687 8,146 7,958 All Government (mf. basis) 21 54 21 30 All Government (ss. basis) 9 12 8 19 USDA net removals: Mil. lb Butter 4.9 5.1 3.8 Cheese 0.4 2.2 1.6 0.5 Nonfat dry milk 4.0 32.8 23.2 33.8 All products (mf basis 2/) 6.8 141.3 135.7 98.4 All products (ss basis 2/) 53.3 411.7 291.3 403.5 Jul-96 May-97 Jun-97 Jul-97 Dairy product output: Mil. lb Butter 75.2 103.1 81.8 81.7 American cheese 269.3 294.9 286.1 285.1 Other-than-American cheese 312.9 345.6 341.4 331.4 Frozen products 1/, Mil. gal. 132.2 117.2 125.7 127.2 All products (mf basis 2/) 7841.8 8663.7 8310.2 8298.6 Nonfat dry milk 78.8 132.8 120.3 113.4 Commercial disappearance: Mil. l Butter 73.2 80.6 79.9 NA American cheese 267.0 281.0 268.6 NA Other-than-American cheese 350.2 354.3 361.1 NA Nonfat dry milk 80.9 81.4 66.0 NA All products (mf. basis) 12940.0 13175.0 13181.0 NA Imports (mf basis 2/) 243.7 195.8 205.0 NA Annual Forecasts 1995 1996 1997 1998 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions 6,743 6,928 7,166 7,343 CPI-U, Annual % Ch 2.7 3.2 2.3 2.8 Unemployment rate, 5.6 5.4 5.0 5.0 3-Month T Bill,% 5.5 5.0 5.1 5.2 10-Year Bond,% 6.6 6.4 7.4 6.4 Production, million lb. Beef 25,115 25,419 25,261 24,800 Pork 17,811 17,085 17,060 18,475 Broilers 25,021 26,336 27,425 29,200 Turkeys 5,129 5,466 5,462 5,725 Total Red Meat & 74,070 75,303 76,157 79,063 Eggs, mil doz. 5,269 5,393 5,431 5,525 Milk 155,425 154,331 156,452 156,900 Commercial use 154,857 155,057 156,360 157,900 Net removals (m 2,102 92 1,087 1,000 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 67.5 67.7 67.2 65.6 Pork 52.5 49.1 47.9 51.4 Broilers 68.8 70.8 73.1 77.5 Turkeys 17.9 18.5 18.1 18.8 Total Red Meat & 210.3 209.2 208.9 215.7 Eggs, number 236 237 238 239 Market Prices Choice steers, Ne 66.24 65.21 65-6 71-76 Feeder steers,Ok 68.03 61.08 74-7 77-82 Bng Ut Cows,S. Fa 35.58 30.33 34-3 41-44 Barrows & gilts,I 42.35 53.39 52-5 51-55 Broilers, 12 City 56.38 61.24 58-6 58-62 Turkeys, Eastern, 66.35 66.50 65-6 62-66 Eggs, New York, c 72.85 88.18 77-8 72-78 Milk, all at plan 12.74 14.74 12.8-13.6 12.7-13.6 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 11.83 13.39 11.5-12.3 11.6-12.4 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal expor 1,821 1,877 1,918 2,095 Beef & veal impor 2,103 2,073 2,467 2,680 Pork exports 771 951 1,100 1,210 Pork imports 664 618 590 605 Broiler exports 3,894 4,420 4,630 4,750 Turkey exports 348 438 547 575 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1997 Quarterly 1996/98 Forecasts QI'96 QII'96 QIII'96 QIV'96 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,814 6,885 6,930 7,009 CPI-U, Ann. % Chang 2.8 3.8 2.3 3.2 Unemployment rate, 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.3 3-Month T Bill,% 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 10-Year Bond,% 5.9 6.7 6.8 6.3 Production, million Beef 6,303 6,642 6,390 6,084 Pork 4,389 4,104 4,143 4,449 Broilers 6,610 6,571 6,628 6,527 Turkeys 1,270 1,378 1,415 1,403 Total Meat 18,847 18,931 18,807 18,717 Eggs, mil doz. 1,330 1,320 1,352 1,392 Milk (mf basis) 39,053 39,638 37,674 37,966 Commercial use 37,671 39,833 38,749 38,804 Net removals 19 29 19 25 Consumption, Retail Beef 17.0 17.5 17.0 16.2 Pork 12.6 11.6 12.0 12.9 Broilers 17.6 18.0 18.1 17.1 Turkeys 3.7 3.9 4.6 6.2 Total Meat 51.8 51.9 52.5 53.0 Eggs, number 58.8 58.0 59.1 61.2 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 63.06 60.26 67.13 70.39 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 58.11 56.87 63.20 66.15 Brk Cows,S. Falls 32.52 30.37 31.74 26.68 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 46.23 54.82 57.75 54.75 Broiler,12 City 56.22 61.07 64.22 63.46 Turkeys, Eastern 64.80 65.40 64.90 70.90 Eggs, New York 89.60 80.50 85.90 96.70 Milk, all at plant 13.83 14.27 15.80 15.07 Milk, M-W 12.67 13.59 14.93 12.36 U.S. Trade, million Beef/veal exports 452 544 436 445 Beef/veal imports 508 526 555 484 Pork exports 221 313 180 237 Pork imports 144 155 154 165 Broiler exports 1,075 1,057 1,121 1,167 Turkey exports 96 93 124 125 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1997 QI'97 QII'97 QIII'97 QIV'97 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 7,089 7,140 7,185 7,235 CPI-U, Ann. % Chang 2.4 1.1 2.2 2.8 Unemployment rate, 5.3 4.9 4.8 4.9 3-Month T Bill,% 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 6.6 6.7 6.4 6.5 Production, million Beef 6,112 6,419 6,630 6,100 Pork 4,194 4,091 4,225 4,550 Broilers 6,628 6,948 6,950 6,900 Turkeys 1,235 1,402 1,400 1,425 Total Meat 18,425 19,097 19,424 19,211 Eggs, mil doz. 1,344 1,336 1,350 1,400 Milk (mf basis) 38,922 40,630 38,700 38,200 Commercial use 38,516 39,044 39,400 39,400 Net removals 100 287 400 300 Consumption, Retail Beef 16.2 17.1 17.9 16.0 Pork 11.8 11.6 11.9 12.6 Broilers 17.6 18.8 18.7 17.9 Turkeys 3.5 4.0 4.4 6.2 Total Meat 49.7 52.2 53.5 53.4 Eggs, number 58.8 59.0 59.2 60.9 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 66.40 66.63 62-6 67-73 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 69.42 75.88 77-8 77-83 Brk Cows,S. Falls 32.02 37.05 35-3 35-37 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 51.06 56.41 52-5 50-54 Broiler,12 City 60.00 59.10 60-6 57-61 Turkeys, Eastern 58.90 66.10 66-7 72-78 Eggs, New York 84.90 72.10 76-8 80-86 Milk, all at plant 13.47 12.93 12.0-13.0 13.5-14.5 Milk, M-W 12.30 10.96 11.3-12.3 12.2-13.2 U.S. Trade, million Beef/veal exports 455 513 475 475 Beef/veal imports 536 716 700 515 Pork exports 192 271 291 346 Pork imports 158 150 135 147 Broiler exports 1,090 1,098 1,170 1,272 Turkey exports 128 149 135 135 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1997 QI'98 QII'98 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 7,281 7,324 CPI-U, Ann. % Chang 2.7 3.0 Unemployment rate, 5.0 5.0 3-Month T Bill,% 5.3 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 6.8 6.5 Production, million Beef 6,025 6,200 Pork 4,500 4,500 Broilers 7,100 7,350 Turkeys 1,300 1,450 Total Meat 19,157 19,708 Eggs, mil doz. 1,350 1,350 Milk (mf basis) 39,100 40,800 Commercial use 38,600 39,900 Net removals 300 300 Consumption, Retail Beef 16.2 16.6 Pork 12.7 12.5 Broilers 19.1 19.9 Turkeys 3.9 4.1 Total Meat 52.4 53.7 Eggs, number 58.5 58.3 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 71-73 71-77 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 76-80 78-84 Brk Cows,S. Falls 41-43 42-46 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 50-52 52-56 Broiler,12 City 57-59 58-62 Turkeys, Eastern 59-61 60-64 Eggs, New York 74-77 68-72 Milk, all at plant 13.0-13.6 12.1-12.9 Milk, M-W 11.6-12.1 11.0-11.7 U.S. Trade, million Beef/veal exports 475 540 Beef/veal imports 680 725 Pork exports 260 295 Pork imports 150 150 Broiler exports 1,100 1,100 Turkey exports 135 150 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1997.