LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY November 19, 1997 November 1997, LDP-M-47 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY MONTHLY is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #LDP-M, $40/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Poultry Production Continues Increasing Poultry production is expected to increase in 1998 more strongly than in 1997 as producer returns for broilers and turkeys continue to improve. Feed costs are expected to be slightly lower in 1998, with corn prices slightly higher and soybean meal prices substantially lower. Net returns during 1997 are expected to be higher than in 1996 for broiler and turkey producers. Egg producers will likely average slightly lower this year at about 10 cents per dozen, but remain attractive enough for increased production. These favorable factors should provide the needed incentive for stronger poultry production increases. Wholesale prices for all poultry in 1998 are expected to be slightly lower than in 1997, but lower feed costs are expected to more than offset these decreases and make returns more attractive for the production of poultry meats. Holiday Turkey Supplies Plentiful Supplies of turkeys for the holiday season will be slightly larger than a year ago due to higher cold storage stocks and slightly higher production during the fourth quarter. Per capita supplies of turkey meat will be about unchanged from a year ago due to population growth. Stocks of whole birds were 4 percent higher, and total turkey stocks were 7 percent higher than a year ago as of September 30. Slightly higher retail turkey prices during 1997 have resulted from nearly unchanged production and higher exports keeping domestic consumption about 2 percent lower than a year ago. Per capita consumption is expected to be 18 pounds per person, one-half pound below last year. Retail prices are expected to average about the same as last year during the holiday marketing season. Wholesale prices did not show the seasonal strength that was expected as Thanksgiving approached. Eastern region hen prices were above a year ago during the second and third quarters but fell below a year ago in October. Prices peaked in June, averaging 68.6 cents per pound. Since then prices have held in the 67-69 cents per pound range. In mid-November, there has been some sales of birds at prices above 70 cents per pound, which should give a seasonal increase for November and December. Even with this late seasonal increase in prices, fourth-quarter prices may average below a year ago. Higher stocks of turkeys and hams have kept pressure on wholesale prices. Turkey-parts prices have been under pressure as well. Breast prices have been weaker than a year ago during all of 1997. This price weakness has kept wholesale tom prices lower than hen prices during the second and third quarters when toms usually sell at a premium to hens because of the large demand for bigger than consumer-size whole birds. Drumstick and wing prices have begun to show weakness relative to a year ago since August as greater pork production increased competition from hams and pork trimmings (42 percent lean pork trimmings have been selling at about 20-25 cents per pound). Egg Prices Strengthening Egg prices have shown a strong seasonal increase, rising 25 cents per dozen from mid-October to mid-November. Egg prices in early November are near year-ago levels after averaging about 6 cents per dozen below a year ago for the first 10 months of the year. Wholesale and retail egg prices are expected to average 5-10 cents per dozen below a year ago for the fourth quarter, with per capita supplies of eggs unchanged from last year. Egg production is slightly higher than a year ago as the table egg production flock is about 1 percent larger. For 1997, per capita egg consumption is expected to increase by one egg. Egg-product consumption increased by about three eggs per person, while shell-egg consumption has fallen about two eggs per person. Broiler Production Increases Accelerating About 3 percent more birds than a year ago were slaughtered during October. Increases in slaughter are expected to be nearly 4 percent in November and nearly 5 percent in December. Higher bird weights should bring the meat production increase for the fourth quarter to between 5 and 6 percent. Reported third-quarter production was smaller than forecast. The number of birds slaughtered was up 2 percent for the quarter, while hatch and chick placement data indicated about 4 percent more should have been availabe for slaughter. The necessary hatchery supply flock birds appear to be in place if broiler producers choose to increase production more strongly in 1998. Broiler-type hatching egg production was 6 percent above a year ago in September, while lower heavy fowl culling during September brought the flock numbers to 8 percent above a year ago on October 1. Wholesale prices for broilers have decreased as production increases have accelerated. Whole birds were selling for about 55 cents per pound during October and early November. All part prices, except for wings, were below a year ago in October and all part prices are below a year ago in mid-November. Broiler Export Prospects Clouded by Uncertainties The current instability in a number of southeast Asian economies and higher U.S. pork production are the two largest areas of uncertainty in the 1998 broiler export forecast. The unknown is how much the economic problems in Thailand, Indonesia, and other countries will impact China's and Japan's markets and how much it will erode demand for U.S. broiler products in southeast Asia. While the impact on broiler products may be less than for higher value beef or pork cuts, any long term economic downturn would likely adversely affect imports. Nevertheless, broiler exports in 1998 are expected to rise to about 4.75 billion pounds. The forecast large increase in domestic pork production for 1998 is expected to put downward pressure on broiler product prices in many export markets. Larger production of pork trimmings is expected to especially impact those markets importing low valued ground or mechanically deboned broiler meat for sausage production. Broiler Exports Strongest in Eastern Europe Over the first 8 months of 1997, broiler exports totaled 3.0 billion pounds, up 4 percent from the same period in 1996. For 1997, broiler exports are forecast at 4.655 billion pounds, a 5 percent increase. Most growth in exports in 1997 is attributable to continued strength in the Russian market and large shipments to Russia through the Baltic countries. Exports to Russia and the Baltic countries so far in 1997 have totaled 1.5 billion pounds or 50 percent of total shipments. Other strong export markets have been Mexico, Canada, and South Africa. Increases to these markets have, however, been moderated by falling exports to a number of Asian markets, chiefly Hong Kong and Japan. Turkey Exports Slow in 1998 The growth in turkey exports is forecast to slow considerably in 1998, with shipments increasing only 2 percent to 575 million pounds. Exports of turkey and turkey products are now expected to reach 567 million pounds in 1997, 29 percent higher than last year. Turkey exports in 1998 will be affected by the same set of uncertainties as broiler exports. Much of the growth in turkey exports has been through shipments of lower valued turkey products. These exports will be competing directly with the larger supplies of pork products. Exports to Mexico, the largest market for U.S. turkey products, will be especially critical as Mexico is a large importer of turkey meat for sausage and other processed product fabrication. Other Chicken Exports Face Strong Competition Exports of other chicken products are also primarily lower value products that place them squarely in competition with lower cost broiler, turkey, and pork products. Because of the expected strong competition among these products in 1998, other chicken exports are forecast to reach 388 million pounds, up only 3 percent, after increasing an estimated 42 percent in 1997. Egg Exports Expected To Grow in 1998 After falling an estimated 13 percent in 1997, exports are expected to recover in 1998, growing by 16 percent to 255 million dozen. Forecast lower domestic prices and somewhat less competition from China's eggs in the Hong Kong market, are the most important reasons for the recovery in export volume. Over the first 8 months of 1997, egg exports were 144 million dozen, down 26 million from the previous year. Shipments of shell eggs and egg products were both down, with shell-egg exports down 19 percent and egg-product exports down 12 percent. Most of the decline resulted from lower exports to Hong Kong, Japan, and Mexico. Dairy Product Commercial Use Rises Third-quarter commercial use of dairy products posted a sizable rise from a year earlier, following a spring decline. Continued economic growth helped dairy sales shake off some delayed effects of the high 1996 prices. Summer use increased almost 4 percent on a milkfat basis and more than 1 percent on a skim solids basis. Cheese sales grew 4 percent during July-September. However, summer 1996 use was a little soft, and the 1997 performance to date has been somewhat checkered. Expansion in cheese sales this year probably should be characterized as moderate. Third-quarter butter sales rose about 3 percent but fell considerably short of making up for first-half declines. Higher butter prices have made retail specials less attractive and may have cut into food processor use. Nonfat dry milk use also was higher than a year ago but remained at weaker levels than during most recent years. Fluid milk sales were near a year earlier. The return to more normal purchasing this year should result in significant year-to-year increases during the current quarter. Dairy product disappearance during October-December 1996 was reduced by users cutting their purchases to the bone in response to rapid wholesale price drops. These sales are expected to help support wholesale prices through the holiday buying season. Total 1997 commercial use is projected to be up more than 1 percent on a milkfat basis, but may only be barely higher on a skim solids basis. Rising Pork Production Dampens Prices Weekly hog slaughter in the fourth quarter is averaging about 3 percent higher than a year ago, with heavier weights pushing production up about 4 percent. Hog prices in November are averaging about $45 per cwt, down $5 from September. Although hog slaughter usually peaks in early December, prices normally bottom out in late November. With pork production expected to increase about 7 percent in first-quarter 1998, hog prices are likely to remain in the mid-$40 per cwt range. Composite retail pork prices in October continued below the record high monthly average of $2.36 per pound reached in August. Although retail prices declined, the farm-retail spread reached a record high of $1.62 per pound in October as the farm value has dropped more than the retail price. Retail prices are expected to decline further in the coming months as the farm-retail spread retreats from record highs. Wholesale pork prices, especially for bellies and loins, have dropped sharply since August. These sharp price declines have made pork much more competitive with chicken and beef. Earlier this year, the relatively high wholesale prices put pork at a competitive disadvantage with beef and chicken for retail features. With expectations of plentiful pork supplies through at least the next year, pork features should increase and bring lower retail prices. Cattle Cycle Unlikely To Turn Before 2000 The cattle cycle is unlikely to turn before 2000. For the second year in a row, the January 1 Cattle report indicated that cattle producers were retaining a larger number of heifers for breeding the following summer than actually entered the herd. However, in each of the last 2 years, conditions deteriorated and a large proportion of the heifers were marketed as feeder animals rather than being retained for the breeding herd. On January 1, 1997, producers indicated they were retaining 2 percent fewer beef replacement heifers to be bred in the late-spring-early-summer breeding season. However, in the July 1 inventory report, producers indicated they were retaining 4 percent fewer heifers than a year earlier. Although feed grain prices were well below a year earlier in the spring and summer of 1997, pasture and range conditions once again were disappointing and hay prices were at record levels, indicating very tight forage supplies. The number of heifers on feed in the 7-monthly reporting States on July 1 were up 28 percent from a year earlier. However, large placements of heavier cattle in each of the summer quarter months raised the specter of even more heifers being placed on feed. This scenario was verified by the October Cattle on Feed report indicating 21 percent more heifers on feed than a year earlier. In addition, heifer slaughter for the first 9 months of the year was at a near-record pace, second only to the major liquidation years of the mid-1970's. The present cycle entered the liquidation phase in late 1995 and intensified in 1996 as grain stocks declined and prices set new records due to a sharp decline in the 1995/96 grain harvest. Conditions for cow-calf producers were further exacerbated by a severe drought which spread from the Southwest in late spring into the Central Plains, the heart of the cattle raising sector of the industry, by mid-summer. Drought resulted in sharply reduced grazing prospects and higher hay prices forcing cattlemen to cull herds sharply and retain fewer stocker cattle. Reduced forage supplies lowered the demand for stocker cattle to be retained for pasture gain and, at the same time, rapidly rising grain prices reduced the break-even prices cattle feeders could pay for feeder cattle to be placed on feed. Feeder cattle weighing 750 to 800 pounds declined from a range of $67 to $74 per cwt in first-half 1995 to $55 to $59 in first-half 1996. Even as feeder cattle prices plummeted, cattle feeders sharply reduced feedlot placements in first-half 1996 to 7.567 million head, down 14 percent from a year earlier. The end result was a year of large losses for feeder cattle producers, and consequently, liquidation of the beef cow herd and sharply reduced heifer retention. Cow slaughter rose from 6.3 million head in 1995 to 7.3 million in 1996. Beef production rose to 25.4 billion pounds, second only to the 25.7 billion pounds produced in 1976 when the cattle inventory was 132 million head and the industry was in the largest liquidation in history. Beef cow slaughter remained large during the first quarter of 1997, but has been down about 20 percent from a year earlier since spring. Although down, beef cow slaughter remains somewhat large as less efficient cows are culled due to continued tight forage supplies. Cow slaughter is expected to decline even further over the next couple of years. Without larger numbers of heifers being retained and bred, beef cow numbers will continue to decline, and thus, calf crops will decline at least through 1998. Supplies of feeder cattle outside feedlots and available for placements this fall and in 1998 are already beginning to tighten, with supplies on October 1 down 7 percent from a year earlier. As feeder cattle prices rise due to tighter supplies, calf slaughter will decline as calves are bid into the feedlots rather than slaughtered as vealers. Stronger prices also will attract more imports from Mexico and Canada, but cattle inventories in both of these countries have also declined, reducing supplies for export to the United States. Feeder cattle supplies will continue to tighten over the next couple of years as the calf crop declines and more heifers are retained for the breeding herd. Supplies will drop through at least 1999, stopping then only if even more heifers are retained for herd expansion this fall and bred next summer to calve in 1999. This reduction in feeder cattle supplies and reduced cow slaughter will hold beef production down until after the turn of the century. Beef production in 1998 is expected to decline about 2 percent, but production declines in the second half of the year are likely to exceed expectations if forage supplies and grain prices become more favorable. These improved feed conditions would encourage reduced cow culling and increased heifer retention, both would result in even tighter beef supplies. Although beef supplies are declining, resulting in rising cattle and retail beef prices, large and expanding supplies of competing meats will dampen price increases. Shorter biological cycles will allow both the poultry and pork sectors to expand production and share in stronger demand for their products as beef supplies decline. The higher beef prices will also provide some price support for competing products as their supplies rise. The next issue of the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Situation and Outlook is scheduled for release on December 17, 1997 at 12 noon ET. Principal Contributors - (202) 694-5180 Leland Southard, (Coordinator), Milton Madison (Poultry), David Harvey (Poultry Trade), Ron Gustafson, (Cattle), Shayle Shagam (Beef Trade), Mildred Haley (Pork Trade), Jim Miller (Dairy), Laverne Williams (Statistics) Poultry supply, carcass weight 1/ --------------------------------------------------- Produc Net RTC Begin- Year Federal Other produc- ning Im- Total Inspected tion stocks ports supply ----------------- Million pounds ------------ Broilers: 1995 25,021 39 24,827 458 1 25,287 1996 I 6,610 9 6,557 560 1 7,118 II 6,571 9 6,518 688 1 7,206 III 6,628 9 6,575 651 1 7,227 IV 6,527 9 6,475 573 1 7,049 Year 26,336 38 26,124 560 4 26,687 1997 I 6,628 9 6,573 641 1 7,215 II 6,948 10 6,890 708 1 7,599 III 2/ 6,805 10 6,749 703 1 7,454 IV 2/ 6,900 10 6,843 542 1 7,386 Year 2/ 27,281 39 27,055 641 4 27,701 1998 I 2/ 7,100 10 7,040 625 0 7,665 II 2/ 7,350 11 7,288 700 1 7,989 III 2/ 7,500 11 7,436 700 1 8,137 Year 2/ 29,200 42 28,953 625 3 29,581 Other chicken: 1995 494 3 496 14 3 512 1996 I 129 1 130 7 0 137 II 127 1 128 12 0 140 III 119 1 120 14 0 134 IV 113 1 114 14 0 128 Year 487 5 491 7 0 498 1997 I 123 1 124 6 0 130 II 138 1 140 7 0 147 III 2/ 123 1 124 8 0 132 IV 2/ 125 1 126 11 0 136 Year 2/ 509 5 514 6 0 520 1998 I 2/ 130 1 131 10 0 141 II 2/ 140 1 141 5 0 146 III 2/ 135 1 136 10 0 146 Year 2/ 535 6 540 10 0 550 Turkey: 1995 5,129 4 5,069 254 2 5,326 1996 I 1,270 1 1,255 271 0 1,526 II 1,378 1 1,362 445 0 1,807 III 1,415 1 1,398 680 0 2,078 IV 1,403 1 1,386 721 0 2,107 Year 5,466 3 5,401 271 1 5,673 1997 I 1,235 1 1,220 328 0 1,549 II 1,404 1 1,388 496 0 1,884 III 2/ 1,410 1 1,393 668 0 2,061 IV 2/ 1,425 1 1,408 770 0 2,178 Year 2/ 5,475 3 5,409 328 1 5,738 1998 I 2/ 1,300 1 1,284 350 0 1,634 II 2/ 1,450 1 1,432 425 0 1,857 III 2/ 1,500 1 1,482 600 0 2,082 Year 2/ 5,725 3 5,656 350 1 6,007 Total poultry: 1995 30,644 46 30,393 727 6 31,125 1996 I 8,009 11 7,941 839 1 8,781 II 8,075 12 8,007 1,145 1 9,154 III 8,162 11 8,092 1,345 1 9,439 IV 8,043 11 7,974 1,309 1 9,284 Year 32,289 46 32,015 839 5 32,859 1997 I 7,986 12 7,917 975 1 8,894 II 8,490 12 8,417 1,212 1 9,630 III 2/ 8,338 12 8,266 1,379 1 9,646 IV 2/ 8,450 12 8,377 1,322 1 9,700 Year 2/ 33,265 48 32,978 975 5 33,958 1998 I 2/ 8,530 12 8,455 985 0 9,440 II 2/ 8,940 12 8,861 1,130 1 9,992 III 2/ 9,135 13 9,054 1,310 1 10,365 Year 2/ 35,460 51 35,148 985 4 36,137 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Forecast Poultry utilization, carcass and retail weight 1/ ---------------------------------------------------------- Per capita Total consumption Year Ex- Ending disap- Carcass Retail ports stocks pearance weight weight --------------------------------------------------------- Million pounds Pounds Broilers: 1995 3,894 560 20,832 79.2 68.8 1996 I 1,075 688 5,355 20.2 17.6 II 1,057 651 5,498 20.7 18.0 III 1,121 573 5,532 20.8 18.1 IV 1,167 641 5,241 19.7 17.1 Year 4,420 641 21,626 81.4 70.8 1997 I 1,090 708 5,417 20.3 17.6 II 1,098 703 5,798 21.7 18.8 III 2/ 1,195 542 5,716 21.3 18.5 IV 2/ 1,272 625 5,489 20.4 17.7 Year 2/ 4,655 625 22,421 83.7 72.7 1998 I 2/ 1,100 700 5,865 21.8 18.9 II 2/ 1,100 700 6,189 22.9 19.9 III 2/ 1,200 725 6,212 22.9 19.9 Year 2/ 4,750 750 24,081 89.0 77.4 Other chicken: 1995 99 7 406 1.5 1.5 1996 I 39 12 86 0.3 0.3 II 47 14 79 0.3 0.3 III 78 14 41 0.2 0.2 IV 100 6 22 0.1 0.1 Year 265 6 228 0.9 0.9 1997 I 95 7 28 0.1 0.1 II 92 8 46 0.2 0.2 III 2/ 90 11 31 0.1 0.1 IV 2/ 100 10 26 0.1 0.1 Year 2/ 377 10 132 0.5 0.5 1998 I 2/ 95 5 41 0.2 0.2 II 2/ 95 10 41 0.2 0.2 III 2/ 93 10 43 0.2 0.2 Year 2/ 388 5 157 0.6 0.6 Turkey: 1995 348 271 4,706 17.9 17.9 1996 I 96 445 985 3.7 3.7 II 93 680 1,035 3.9 3.9 III 124 721 1,233 4.6 4.6 IV 125 328 1,654 6.2 6.2 Year 438 328 4,907 18.5 18.5 1997 I 128 496 925 3.5 3.5 II 149 668 1,067 4.0 4.0 III 2/ 145 770 1,146 4.3 4.3 IV 2/ 145 350 1,683 6.3 6.3 Year 2/ 567 350 4,821 18.0 18.0 1998 I 2/ 135 425 1,074 4.0 4.0 II 2/ 150 600 1,107 4.1 4.1 III 2/ 140 700 1,242 4.6 4.6 Year 2/ 575 325 5,107 18.9 18.9 Total poultry: 1995 4,342 839 25,944 98.6 88.3 1996 I 1,210 1,145 6,426 24.3 21.6 II 1,198 1,345 6,611 24.9 22.2 III 1,323 1,309 6,807 25.6 22.9 IV 1,392 975 6,918 25.9 23.4 Year 5,123 975 26,761 100.8 90.2 1997 I 1,313 1,212 6,370 23.8 21.2 II 1,339 1,379 6,911 25.8 23.0 III 2/ 1,430 1,322 6,894 25.7 22.9 IV 2/ 1,517 985 7,198 26.8 24.1 Year 2/ 5,599 985 27,374 102.1 91.2 1998 I 2/ 1,330 1,130 6,980 25.9 23.0 II 2/ 1,345 1,310 7,337 27.2 24.2 III 2/ 1,433 1,435 7,497 27.7 24.7 Year 2/ 5,713 1,080 29,344 108.5 96.8 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Forecast Selected price statistics for poultry and eggs --------------------------------------------------------------------- Item Oct-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 ------------------------ Poultry prices: Farm - liveweight Cents per dozen All Eggs 73.60 82.10 87.70 75.80 75.70 Cents per pound Broiler 39.50 40.40 41.60 40.40 39.10 Turkey 45.10 45.50 43.20 38.60 36.40 Wholesale Broilers 12-city avg, RTC 62.64 64.37 63.50 61.99 59.53 U.S. composite ave 65.70 66.95 62.07 63.57 64.00 Georgia dock 64.42 64.83 64.29 63.05 61.13 Northeast Breast, boneless 169.43 169.92 156.40 169.07 168.45 Breast, Ribs on 82.16 84.95 75.58 84.72 87.58 Legs, whole 59.22 60.17 57.28 52.27 50.80 Leg quarters 45.29 45.60 37.74 33.02 34.36 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 71.43 70.63 63.36 58.76 57.28 Hens, 8-16 lb. 69.09 73.58 70.05 59.71 57.84 Breast 4-8 lb. 107.25 105.78 101.67 95.18 95.30 Drumsticks 35.44 34.78 35.30 34.87 35.81 Wings, full cut 41.13 43.22 46.00 43.15 39.13 Eggs, grade A, large, dozen Cents per dozen 12 city metro 89.21 103.32 106.38 89.62 87.26 New York 86.68 102.50 100.90 86.30 82.03 Price to retailer U.S. average Eggs 88.21 101.50 105.38 88.62 86.26 Cents per pound Broiler 70.64 72.60 71.50 69.99 67.53 Turkey 78.52 80.13 75.38 68.00 66.00 Retail price U.S. average Broiler Composite 152.90 151.50 154.20 152.40 152.80 Whole, fresh 102.10 100.30 100.20 101.60 100.80 Breast, bone-in 201.40 204.90 209.30 202.80 207.60 Legs, bone-in 128.50 123.50 125.60 126.50 123.90 Whole turkey, froz 107.40 98.10 102.00 106.30 106.70 Cents per dozen Eggs, grade A, lar 112.90 113.90 130.80 114.80 113.20 Price indexes: 1982-84 = 100 All poultry 157.10 157.30 157.80 158.20 157.90 Chicken, whole fresh 159.00 158.30 158.20 160.80 159.20 Parts, fresh and froze 158.50 161.40 161.50 159.30 160.00 Other poultry 154.40 150.10 152.30 155.40 154.70 Eggs 142.60 145.60 162.90 149.00 147.70 Spreads: Wholesale-to-retail: Cents per pound Broiler, composite 87.20 84.55 92.13 88.83 88.80 Retail-to-consumer: Broiler, whole 31.46 27.70 28.70 31.61 33.27 Turkey, whole 28.88 17.97 26.62 38.30 40.70 Cents per dozen Eggs 24.69 12.40 25.42 26.18 26.94 /* Preliminary Selected hatch, slaughter, and production statistics for poultry and eggs Item Oct-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 Hatchery operations: Eggs in incubators - First of the month Thousands Broiler 539,425 527,789 573,495 582,618 575,711 Turkey 32,333 31,668 33,667 34,055 35,802 Egg-type 30,634 28,787 30,770 30,203 31,801 Hatch Broiler chicks 652,232 631,142 695,011 700,467 631,259 Egg-type chicks 33,065 31,437 33,017 33,331 35,318 Placements Turkey poults 25,354 23,830 27,119 27,121 27,145 Broiler breeders 6,221 6,508 5,947 6,393 5,913 Egg-type breeders 233 210 215 208 219 Layers: In production Table egg 248,071 249,823 250,554 249,494 248,929 Hatching egg 51,125 51,781 53,115 53,799 54,042 All 299,196 301,604 303,669 303,293 302,971 Percent Being molted, first of 4.8 3.0 2.1 3.8 5.1 Molt complete 23.0 23.9 23.5 22.3 21.6 Thousands Light hen slaughter 8,141 5,871 8,072 9,787 7,577 Heavy hen slaughter 6,386 3,856 4,129 5,173 4,875 Eggs per 100 layers, first of the month Number Table egg 71.7 72.2 73.6 72.9 70.9 Hatching egg 60.2 60.5 60.3 59.5 59.2 All 69.7 70.2 71.3 70.5 68.8 Egg production Million dozen Table egg 462 456 475 464 415 Hatching egg 80 78 82 82 75 All 541 534 557 546 491 Eggs for breaking 143 119 126 130 115 Egg products produced Thousand pounds Liquid 113,038 91,350 91,523 93,232 88,820 Frozen 35,211 28,851 32,886 35,773 26,733 Dried 12,395 10,048 10,916 12,393 10,396 Federally inspected slaughter: Head Thousands Broiler 686,141 573,057 595,041 661,931 588,238 Turkey 28,051 25,884 22,005 22,917 20,645 Average liveweight Pounds Broiler 4.81 4.81 4.84 4.88 4.85 Turkey 23.74 22.87 23.87 24.61 24.17 Production Total liveweight Million pounds Broiler 3,303 2,757 2,877 3,230 2,853 Turkey 666 592 525 564 499 Certified ready to cook (RTC) Broiler 2,414 2,013 2,100 2,363 2,093 Turkey 523 468 411 442 392 Mature chicken 47 31 35 44 38 Beginning cold storage stocks: Total chicken 587 591 574 647 676 Total turkey 721 658 348 328 401 Eggs, frozen 15 13 10 10 11 /* Preliminary Selected price statistics for poultry and eggs Item Mar-97 Apr-97 May-97 Jun-97 Jul-97 Poultry prices: Farm - liveweight Cents per dozen All Eggs 71.80 65.80 64.30 59.70 65.70 Cents per pound Broiler 38.00 37.10 36.40 37.40 40.10 Turkey 37.80 39.50 41.20 41.50 41.10 Wholesale Broilers 12-city average, RTC 58.41 59.77 58.53 59.05 63.04 U.S. composite ave 62.35 61.50 60.55 63.39 68.91 Georgia dock 60.60 60.35 59.68 59.99 61.70 Northeast Breast, boneless 165.82 172.53 164.46 184.94 192.71 Breast, Ribs on 85.12 90.37 84.88 95.63 98.68 Legs, whole 50.49 48.62 48.08 47.93 48.39 Leg quarters 33.15 31.93 30.26 29.28 31.99 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 58.33 62.25 66.08 66.35 65.48 Hens, 8-16 lb. 59.26 62.93 66.64 68.60 68.59 Breast 4-8 lb. 96.33 94.00 94.95 98.10 93.89 Drumsticks 38.71 35.28 29.20 25.91 27.60 Wings, full cut 39.09 37.74 31.37 31.51 35.63 Eggs, grade A, large Cents per dozen 12 city metro 87.27 79.15 72.85 69.16 84.11 New York 86.31 75.55 72.30 68.40 81.90 Price to retailer U.S. average Cents per dozen Eggs 86.27 78.15 71.85 68.16 83.11 Cents per pound Broiler 66.41 67.77 66.53 67.05 71.04 Turkey 67.25 71.22 74.90 75.78 75.36 Retail price U.S. average Broiler Cents per pound Composite 149.30 148.80 151.90 151.90 153.40 Whole, fresh 100.90 100.20 100.70 99.30 100.50 Breast, bone-in 199.40 200.40 207.50 205.20 207.30 Legs, bone-in 123.10 121.50 122.10 124.30 125.50 Whole turkey,frozen 104.70 103.20 104.50 107.80 107.40 Cents per dozen Eggs, grade A,large 105.60 108.10 100.20 95.20 97.90 Price indexes: 1982-84 = 100 All poultry 156.30 155.40 156.60 156.70 157.90 Chicken, whole fresh 158.90 158.50 158.60 156.70 158.80 Parts, fresh and frozen 156.90 155.10 157.20 158.50 159.20 Other poultry 154.40 155.00 155.60 156.60 157.70 Eggs 141.00 140.00 133.40 128.80 132.90 Spreads: Wholesale-to-retail: Cents per pound Broiler, composite 86.95 87.30 91.35 88.51 84.49 Retail-to-consumer: Broiler, whole 34.49 32.43 34.17 32.25 29.46 Turkey, whole 37.45 31.98 29.60 32.02 32.04 Cents per dozen Eggs 19.33 29.95 28.35 27.04 14.79 /* Preliminary Selected hatch, slaughter, and production statistics for poultry and eggs Item Mar-97 Apr-97 May-97 Jun-97 Jul-97 Hatchery operations: Eggs in incubators - First of the month Thousands Broiler 591,898 583,986 591,820 596,376 587,661 Turkey 35,040 37,232 36,536 36,781 38,585 Egg-type 33,211 35,162 36,426 33,414 29,947 Hatch Broiler chicks 716,374 690,790 720,610 702,511 709,150 Egg-type chicks 37,648 38,746 38,891 36,955 33,954 Placements Turkey poults 27,610 28,220 29,120 28,380 30,092 Broiler breeders 6,439 6,122 7,056 6,008 7,332 Egg-type breeders 206 316 268 256 199 Layers: In production Thousands Table egg 248,821 247,463 245,265 243,530 243,046 Hatching egg 54,423 55,203 55,970 55,897 55,502 All 303,244 302,666 301,235 299,427 298,548 Percent Being molted, first of 2.4 3.1 5.3 4.4 4.8 Molt complete 22.9 21.8 19.8 20.8 21.1 Thousands Light hen slaughter 9,405 11,052 10,429 9,722 8,784 Heavy hen slaughter 4,639 4,893 5,314 5,501 5,382 Eggs per 100 layers, f Number Table egg 72.0 72.6 71.1 72.2 71.5 Hatching egg 60.2 60.7 60.4 60.2 60.6 All 69.9 70.4 69.1 70.0 69.4 Egg production Million dozen Table egg 465 445 454 438 450 Hatching egg 85 83 87 85 86 All 550 528 541 522 536 Eggs for breaking 120 138 136 132 136 Egg products produced Thousand pounds Liquid 97,233 103,036 103,616 103,664 102,064 Frozen 26,093 33,931 30,116 31,286 34,224 Dried 11,170 11,334 12,802 11,792 10,253 Federally inspected slaughter: Head Thousands Broiler 608,291 660,234 665,120 639,730 668,917 Turkey 21,447 23,544 24,129 25,001 26,605 Average liveweight Pounds Broiler 4.84 4.86 4.81 4.77 4.68 Turkey 23.82 24.29 24.68 24.09 23.42 Production Total liveweight Million pounds Broiler 2,943 3,209 3,202 3,052 3,129 Turkey 511 572 595 602 623 Certified ready to cook (RTC) Broiler 2,172 2,362 2,346 2,240 2,303 Turkey 402 451 468 485 492 Mature chicken 41 45 47 47 45 Beginning cold storage stocks: Total chicken 697 715 744 731 712 Total turkey 446 496 543 612 668 Eggs, frozen 11 9 8 8 9 /* Preliminary Selected price statistics for poultry and eggs Item Aug-97 Sep-97 /* Poultry prices: Farm - liveweight Cents per dozen All Eggs 63.50 69.60 Cents per pound Broiler 40.10 38.50 Turkey 40.70 41.10 Wholesale Broilers 12-city average, RTC 63.25 59.86 U.S. composite ave 64.63 59.28 Georgia dock 62.17 61.34 Northeast Breast, boneless 194.77 178.86 Breast, Ribs on 97.53 82.78 Legs, whole 48.29 47.33 Leg quarters 30.79 30.25 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 64.95 64.21 Hens, 8-16 lb. 68.20 67.89 Breast 4-8 lb. 92.00 92.25 Drumsticks 25.64 29.15 Wings, full cut 33.47 36.81 Eggs, grade A, large Cents per dozen 12 city metro 77.32 85.00 New York 74.69 82.40 Price to retailer U.S. average Eggs 76.32 84.00 Cents per pound Broiler 71.25 67.86 Turkey 74.73 74.54 Retail price U.S. average Broiler Composite 149.50 152.70 Whole, fresh 98.80 99.20 Breast, bone-in 202.70 209.40 Legs, bone-in 121.60 122.70 Whole turkey, froz 109.20 108.90 Cents per dozen Eggs, grade A, lar 106.10 100.90 Price indexes: 1982-84 = 100 All poultry 155.60 156.80 Chicken, whole fresh 155.80 157.60 Parts, fresh and froze 156.70 157.40 Other poultry 156.80 158.10 Eggs 137.70 136.90 Spreads: Wholesale-to-retail: Cents per pound Broiler, composite 84.87 93.42 Retail-to-consumer: Broiler, whole 27.55 31.34 Turkey, whole 34.47 34.36 Cents per dozen Eggs 29.78 16.90 /* Preliminary Selected hatch, slaughter, and production statistics for poultry and eggs Item Aug-97 Sep-97 /* Hatchery operations: Eggs in incubators - First of the month Thousands Broiler 588,603 590,336 Turkey 34,956 30,883 Egg-type 28,146 31,318 Hatch Broiler chicks 709,281 683,249 Egg-type chicks 32,903 35,794 Placements Turkey poults 26,321 23,907 Broiler breeders 6,697 6,502 Egg-type breeders 284 397 Layers: In production Table egg 244,100 249,000 Hatching egg 54,761 51,500 All 298,861 300,500 Percent Being molted, first of the month 3.5 3.9 Molt complete 21.9 21.5 Thousands Light hen slaughter 7,884 6,982 Heavy hen slaughter 4,702 5,384 Eggs per 100 layers - First of the month Number Table egg 71.9 72.2 Hatching egg 59.5 60.1 All 69.6 70.0 Egg production Million dozen Table egg 454 445 Hatching egg 85 83 All 539 528 Eggs for breaking 140 136 Egg products produced Thousand pounds Liquid 104,749 98,336 Frozen 34,811 35,453 Dried 11,400 10,544 Federally inspected slaughter: Head Thousands Broiler 651,630 635,584 Turkey 24,899 25,370 Average liveweight Pounds Broiler 4.67 4.81 Turkey 23.28 23.07 Production Total liveweight Million pounds Broiler 3,044 3,060 Turkey 580 585 Certified ready to cook (RTC) Broiler 2,262 2,241 Turkey 456 462 Mature chicken 38 40 Beginning cold storage stocks: Total chicken 666 567 Total turkey 714 742 Eggs, frozen 9 11 /* Preliminary Egg supply 1/ --------------------------------------------------------------------- Production Beginning Breaking Imports Total Year stocks egg use supply --------------------------------------------------------------------- Million dozen Total egg 1995 6,215.6 14.9 --- 4.1 6,234.6 1996 I 1,570.6 11.2 --- 1.5 1,583.3 II 1,562.7 9.8 --- 1.6 1,574.1 III 1,593.5 9.6 --- 1.2 1,604.3 IV 1,631.8 11.9 --- 1.0 1,644.7 Year 6,358.6 11.2 --- 5.4 6,375.2 1997 I 1586.8 8.5 --- 1.9 1,597.2 II 1591.2 6.5 --- 1.5 1,599.2 III 3/ 1602.8 6.5 --- 1.5 1,610.8 IV 3/ 1655.0 8.2 --- 1.0 1,664.2 Year 3 6435.7 8.5 --- 5.9 6,450.1 1998 I 3/ 1605.0 10.0 --- 1.0 1,616.0 II 3/ 1615.0 10.0 --- 1.0 1,626.0 III 3/ 1670.0 10.0 --- 1.0 1,681.0 Year 3 6580.0 10.0 --- 4.0 6,594.0 Shell eggs: 1995 6215.6 0.1 1,427.7 3.1 4,791.1 1996 I 1,570.6 0.8 342.5 0.8 1,229.6 II 1,562.7 0.5 390.1 1.3 1,174.4 III 1,593.5 0.7 389.7 0.9 1,205.3 IV 1,631.8 0.6 388.4 0.5 1,244.5 Year 6,358.6 0.8 1,510.8 3.5 4,852.1 1997 I 1586.8 0.8 364.7 1.4 1,224.3 II 1591.2 --- 406.1 1.1 1,186.2 III 3/ 1602.8 --- 411.9 0.8 1,191.7 IV 3/ 1655.0 --- 415.0 0.7 1,240.7 Year / 6,435.7 0.8 1,597.6 4.0 4,842.9 1998 Year / 6,580.0 --- 1695.0 4.0 4,889.0 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Shell eggs and approximate shell-egg equivalent of egg products 3/ Forecast Egg utilization 1/ Exports Hatching Ending Consumption Year 2/ egg use stocks Total Per capita Million dozen Number 1995 208.9 847.2 11.2 5,167.3 235.7 1996 I 59.3 217.4 9.8 1,296.7 58.8 II 65.6 217.2 9.6 1,281.7 58.0 III 66.0 215.8 11.9 1,310.6 59.1 IV 62.2 214.3 8.5 1,359.7 61.2 Year 253.1 864.7 8.5 5,248.8 237.1 1997 I 61.7 220.3 6.5 1,308.7 58.8 II 50.3 225.8 6.5 1,316.5 59.0 III 3/ 51.0 224.1 8.2 1,327.5 59.4 IV 3/ 57.0 225.0 10.0 1,372.2 61.2 Year 3 220.0 895.3 10.0 5,324.9 238.4 1998 I 3/ 62 230 10 1,314.0 58.5 II 3/ 63 240 10 1,313.0 58.3 III 3/ 65 235 10 1,371.0 60.8 Year 3 255 940 10 5,389.0 239.1 Shell eggs: 1995 109.0 847.2 0.8 3,834.1 174.9 1996 I 29.6 217.4 0.5 982.2 44.5 II 26.3 217.2 0.7 930.1 42.1 III 28.4 215.8 0.6 960.6 43.4 IV 29.6 214.3 0.8 999.8 45.0 Year 113.8 864.7 0.8 3,872.7 175.0 1997 I 24.6 220.3 --- 979.4 44.0 II 21.7 225.8 --- 938.7 42.1 III 3/ 22.0 224.1 --- 945.6 42.3 IV 3/ 23.0 225.0 --- 992.7 44.3 Year / 91.3 895.3 --- 3,856.3 172.7 1998 Year / 115.0 940.0 --- 3,834.0 170.1 U.S. egg exports to major importers 1/ January - August Country August 1996 1997 1000 dozen Japan 4,089 43,576 34,512 Canada 4,069 25,436 29,169 Mexico 2,625 31,560 23,168 Hong Kong 2,314 37,060 21,450 Netherlands 44 4,380 5,489 Germany 182 2,306 3,047 U. Arab Emirates 434 5,967 2,648 Russia 153 687 2,442 Jamaica 265 1,985 2,220 Belgium 542 1,249 2,163 Czech. Republic 0 155 1,969 Korea 299 1,627 1,849 United Kingdom 132 1,308 1,315 Trinidad 114 868 979 Malaysia 29 16 859 Nicaragua 241 1,681 681 Norway 0 721 637 Ukraine 442 0 551 Brazil 57 1,096 547 Colombia 30 652 517 Other 994 7,343 7,883 Total 17,055 169,674 144,093 1/ Shell and shell equivalent of egg products. U.S. mature chicken exports to major importers January - August Country August 1996 1997 1000 lb. Hong Kong 15,156 52,357 120,908 Canada 5,937 24,852 26,408 Russia 151 7,608 17,228 Japan 242 12,071 15,619 South Africa 1,369 1,543 10,695 Poland 2,386 2,863 8,530 Haiti 1,378 4,814 8,115 Mexico 563 4,972 5,046 Surinam 676 3,303 4,152 Korea 1,017 1,606 4,089 Jamaica 579 1,041 3,397 Singapore 130 2,238 2,872 China 0 2,253 2,370 New Caledonia 347 1,646 2,116 Azerbaijan 0 1,140 1,537 St. Lucia 43 1,204 1,422 Dominican Republic 0 203 1,063 Saudi Arabia 232 245 926 Germany 8 838 887 Bahamas 211 407 885 Other 1,496 12,760 10,530 Total 31,922 139,963 248,797 Poultry and eggs costs and returns 1/ Production Wholesale costs Total Price Net Year Feed Total costs 2/ 3/ returns Market Eggs (cents/dozen) 1995: I 26.0 44.2 64.7 72.4 7.7 II 27.4 45.6 66.1 66.7 0.6 III 29.4 47.6 68.1 77.7 9.6 IV 32.5 50.7 71.2 88.7 17.5 Year 28.8 47.0 67.5 76.5 8.9 1996: I 37.0 55.2 75.7 92.0 16.4 II 43.0 61.2 81.7 84.0 2.4 III 44.1 62.3 82.8 90.2 7.5 IV 34.3 52.5 73.0 99.4 26.4 Year 39.5 57.7 78.2 90.5 13.3 1997: I 32.7 50.9 71.4 88.1 16.7 II 35.6 53.8 74.3 73.7 -0.6 III 33.1 51.3 71.8 82.1 10.3 Broilers (cents/lb) 1995: I 15.0 25.3 47.4 51.7 4.3 II 15.5 25.8 48.1 53.5 5.5 III 16.3 26.7 49.2 60.7 11.5 IV 17.3 27.7 50.5 59.6 9.1 Year 16.0 26.4 48.8 56.4 7.6 1996: I 19.6 29.9 53.5 56.3 2.8 II 21.5 31.9 56.0 61.0 5.0 III 23.6 34.0 58.8 64.2 5.4 IV 20.9 31.2 55.2 63.5 8.3 Year 21.4 31.7 55.9 61.2 5.4 1997: I 18.6 28.9 52.1 60.0 7.9 II 19.9 30.2 53.9 59.1 5.3 III 19.6 29.9 53.5 62.1 8.6 Turkeys (cents/lb) 1995: I 20.4 34.1 59.0 59.4 0.4 II 21.1 34.8 59.8 61.6 1.8 III 22.3 36.0 61.3 68.9 7.6 IV 23.8 37.5 63.1 74.3 11.2 Year 21.9 35.6 60.8 66.2 5.4 1996: I 27.2 40.9 67.5 64.5 -3.0 II 30.2 43.9 71.2 65.8 -5.3 III 35.0 48.7 77.1 67.4 -9.8 IV 33.3 47.0 75.1 69.1 -5.9 Year 31.6 45.3 72.9 66.8 -6.1 1997: I 27.2 40.9 67.4 58.1 -9.3 II 28.2 41.9 68.7 65.0 -3.7 III 29.6 43.3 70.5 65.9 -4.6 1/ Estimated costs and prices are weighted by monthly production. 2/ Based on farm cost converted to wholesale market value. 3/ Wholesale prices used are the 12-metro egg price, 12-city weighted average broiler price, and a weighted average of 8-16 lb young hens and 14-22 lb toms in Central, Western and Eastern Regions. U.S. broiler exports to major importers January - August Country August 1996 1997 1,000 lb. Russia 176,317 1,184,242 1,345,613 Hong Kong 74,098 666,513 568,983 Latvia 40,358 74,094 165,719 Mexico 21,800 138,930 159,676 Japan 19,241 163,266 131,550 China 16,868 114,629 102,495 Canada 11,782 48,885 78,529 Poland 14,368 74,903 77,505 South Afric 10,397 44,279 67,053 Jamaica 3,524 34,402 32,380 Singapore 3,185 33,899 22,607 Estonia 512 34,670 19,473 Ukraine 4,652 25,841 15,986 Guatemala 1,247 10,880 15,117 United Arab 510 27,124 10,278 Haiti 1,425 7,665 10,228 N. Antilles 1,567 9,271 9,339 Colombia 773 17,927 8,567 Azerbaijan 156 559 8,364 Romania 5,167 1,419 8,336 Other 24,986 198,571 161,649 Total 432,935 2,911,970 3,019,447 U.S. turkey exports to major importers January - August Country August 1996 1997 1,000 lb. Mexico 16,459 92,846 116,423 Hong Kong 11,249 14,301 79,809 Russia 4,080 97,461 53,478 Korea 2,423 16,430 17,373 Colombia 2,282 489 11,931 South Afric 991 1,523 11,161 Poland 617 17,974 10,516 Taiwan 953 5,987 8,708 Japan 1,015 902 5,875 Singapore 879 476 5,414 Canada 625 2,884 3,857 China 459 1,533 3,521 N. Antilles 524 69 3,372 W. Samoa 475 315 2,963 Fr. Polynes 232 191 2,770 United King 0 677 2,618 Jamaica 291 1,520 2,510 Saudi Arabi 119 635 2,338 Ghana 103 2,453 2,309 Greece 502 1,570 2,252 Other 4,653 20,291 24,553 Total 48,927 280,527 373,751 7-State cattle on feed, net placements, marketings, and other disappearance in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year On Other dis- feed Placements Marketings appearance ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 % 1,000 % 1,000 % 1,000 % head Chg head Chg head Chg head Chg 1994 Jan. 8,256 2.2 1,416 2.8 1,481 5.9 52 -52.7 Feb. 8,139 2.4 1,256 16.7 1,357 7.6 57 -37.4 Mar. 7,981 4.0 1,518 5.3 1,467 2.2 72 -17.2 1st Qtr 4,190 4,305 181 Apr. 7,960 4.9 1,310 8.1 1,430 1.3 68 -31.3 May 7,772 6.6 1,359 -21.0 1,542 0.8 78 -32.2 June 7,511 2.0 1,113 -15.2 1,632 3.4 82 -1.2 2nd Qtr 3,782 4,604 228 July 6,910 -1.5 1,520 7.4 1,550 -0.3 39 -41.8 Aug. 6,841 0.5 1,761 0.5 1,602 5.6 51 -20.3 Sept. 6,949 -0.5 1,915 -4.3 1,525 2.3 44 -20.0 3rd Qtr 5,196 4,677 134 Oct. 7,295 -1.9 2,244 0.0 1,504 7.9 47 -29.9 Nov. 7,988 -2.8 1,642 2.0 1,370 3.6 62 -30.3 Dec. 8,198 -2.6 1,345 10.7 1,432 9.7 80 11.1 4th Qtr 5,231 4,306 189 Annual 18,399 17,892 732 1995 Jan. 8,031 -2.7 1,631 15.2 1,484 0.2 59 13.5 Feb. 8,119 -0.2 1,532 22.0 1,372 1.1 52 -8.8 Mar. 8,227 3.1 1,681 10.7 1,513 3.1 67 -6.9 1st Qtr 4,844 4,369 178 Apr. 8,328 4.6 1,403 7.1 1,437 0.5 61 -10.3 May 8,233 5.9 1,673 23.1 1,667 8.1 57 -26.9 June 8,182 8.9 1,356 21.8 1,754 7.5 50 -39.0 2nd Qtr 4,432 4,858 168 July 7,734 11.9 1,404 -7.6 1,698 9.5 49 25.6 Aug. 7,391 8.0 1,653 -6.1 1,815 13.3 40 -21.6 Sept. 7,189 3.5 2,173 13.5 1,594 4.5 46 4.5 3rd Qtr 5,230 5,107 135 Oct. 7,722 5.9 2,278 1.5 1,529 1.7 51 8.5 Nov. 8,420 5.4 1,804 9.9 1,478 7.9 61 -1.6 Dec. 8,685 5.9 1,446 7.5 1,412 -1.4 52 -35.0 4th Qtr 5,528 4,419 164 Annual 20,034 18,753 645 1996 Jan. 8,667 7.9 1,312 -19.6 1,626 9.6 49 -16.9 Feb. 8,304 2.3 1,441 -5.9 1,541 12.3 52 Mar. 8,152 -0.9 1,666 -0.9 1,476 -2.4 56 -16.4 1st Qtr 4,419 4,643 157 Apr. 8,286 -0.5 1,150 -18.0 1,613 12.2 65 6.6 May 7,758 -5.8 1,300 -22.3 1,747 4.8 58 1.8 June 7,253 -11.4 1,068 -21.2 1,696 -3.3 47 -6.0 2nd Qtr 3,518 5,056 170 July 6,578 -14.9 1,483 5.6 1,678 -1.2 46 -6.1 Aug. 6,337 -14.3 1,965 18.9 1,653 -8.9 37 -7.5 Sept. 6,612 -8.0 2,267 4.3 1,342 -15.8 51 10.9 3rd Qtr 5,715 4,673 134 Oct. 7,486 -3.1 2,536 11.3 1,431 -6.4 57 11.8 Nov. 8,534 1.4 1,953 8.3 1,418 -4.1 66 8.2 Dec. 9,003 3.7 1,423 -1.6 1,415 0.2 68 30.8 4th Qtr 5,912 4,264 191 1997 Jan. 8,943 3.2 1,663 26.8 1,728 6.3 65 32.7 Feb. 8,813 6.1 1,552 7.7 1,554 0.8 42 -19.2 Mar. 8,769 7.6 1,694 1.7 1,497 1.4 62 10.7 1st Qtr 4,909 4,779 169 Apr. 8,904 7.5 1,296 12.7 1,648 2.2 68 4.6 May 8,484 9.4 1,612 24.0 1,785 2.2 80 37.9 June 8,231 13.5 1,224 14.6 1,732 2.1 44 -6.4 2nd Qtr 4,132 5,165 192 July 7,679 16.7 1,751 18.1 1,852 10.4 42 -8.7 Aug. 7,536 18.9 2,111 7.4 1,755 6.2 42 13.5 Sept. 7,850 18.7 2,278 0.5 1,528 13.9 42 -17.6 3rd Qtr 6,140 5,135 126 Oct. 8,558 14.3 2,434 -4.0 1,525 6.6 77 35.1 Nov. 9,390 10.0 Feeder cattle supply outside feedlots -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Change from Item 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 /3 Prev. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 head Percent On farms Jan 1: Calves < 500 lbs 18,117 17,884 18,369 18,488 17,688 -4.3 Steers over 500 lb 16,940 17,042 17,463 17,732 17,315 -2.4 Heifers over 500 8,550 9,068 9,275 9,949 10,219 2.7 Total 43,607 43,994 45,107 46,169 45,222 -2.1 On feed Jan 1 1/ 12,698.1 12,931.55 12,374 12,862 13,102 1.9 Feeder cattle outside feedlots on Jan 1 30,908.9 31,062.45 32,733 33,307 32,120 -3.6 Slaughter Jan-Mar Calves 321.2 311.9 350.5 431.8 403.1 -6.6 Steers & heifers 6,221 6,495 6,662 7,085 7,037 -0.7 Total 6,542.2 6,806.9 7,012.5 7,516.8 7,440.1 -1.0 On feed Apr 1 1/: 12206.3 12441.44 12,596 12,245 9,207 -24.8 Feeder cattle outside feedlots on April 24858.5 24,745.7 25,498.5 26,407.2 28574.9 8.2 On farms July 1: Calves < 500 lbs 30300 31300 32000 31700 30800 -2.8 Steers over 500 lbs 14900 15200 15400 15100 14600 -3.3 Heifers over 500 lbs 7300 7500 8000 8100 8200 1.2 Total 52500 54000 55400 54900 53600 -2.4 On feed July 1 1/ 11038.58 10577.61 11140 9741 10839 11.3 Feeder cattle outside feedlots on July 41461.42 43422.39 44260 45159 42761 -5.3 Slaughter Jul-Sept Calves 288.8 312.4 360.9 468.9 395.8 -15.6 Steers & heifers 7017 7269 7657 7169 7532 5.1 Total 7305.8 7581.4 8017.9 7637.9 7927.8 3.8 On feed Oct 1 1/: 11239.03 10728.95 10946 11001 12083 9.8 Feeder cattle outside feedlots on Oct 133955.17 35689.65 36436.1 36261.1 33589.2 -7.4 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Estimated U.S. steers and heifers. 2/ Not including heifers 3/ !995-1997 data revised to incorporate July 1 U.S., and 12 State data Commercial calf slaughter and production ------------------------------------------------ Year Dressed Slaughter weight Production ------------------------------------------------ 1,000 Million head Pounds pounds 1994 I 312 228 71 II 288 236 68 III 312 218 68 IV 357 213 76 Year 1269 223 283 1995 I 350 223 78 II 333 222 74 III 361 211 76 IV 386 207 80 Year 1430 215 308 1996 I 432 208 90 II 405 215 87 III 470 202 95 IV 463 205 95 Year 1770 207 367 1997 I 404 213 86 II 364 220 80 III 396 202 80 ----------------------------------------------- Calf slaughter by class under Federal inspection ----------------------------------------------------------------- Bob veal Fed Other Year 150 lb & 150 to 400 lb over Total below Formula Nonformula 400 lb ----------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 head 1990 657 851 99 135 1743 1991 466 790 66 86 1408 1992 423 760 62 82 1328 1993 324 725 45 66 1159 1994 416 730 37 54 1237 1995 564 740 35 54 1393 1996 867 747 32 71 1718 I 203 194 9 13 420 II 185 188 8 16 397 III 252 172 8 21 454 IV 228 193 6 20 447 1996 Jul. 90 55 3 7 156 Aug. 87 56 3 8 153 Sep. 75 62 2 6 145 Oct. 76 73 2 7 159 Nov. 74 56 2 8 139 Dec. 77 63 2 6 149 1997 Jan. 74 61 3 5 143 Feb. 58 58 2 3 122 Mar. 65 57 3 3 128 Apr. 62 58 2 5 126 May 48 60 2 3 114 June 53 57 2 3 115 July 68 59 1 3 131 Aug. 62 57 1 3 123 Sept. 58 69 2 4 133 ---------------------------------------------------------------- PRODUCTION INDICATORS Oct-96 Aug-97 Sep-97 Oct-97 Cattle: On feed - 7 States, 1,000+ Hd 7,486 7,536 7,850 8,558 Net placements 2,479 2,069 2,236 2,357 Marketings 1,431 1,755 1,528 1,525 Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 539,425 588,603 590,336 566,473 Chicks hatched (000)/2 652,232 709,281 683,249 680,000 Hatching egg layers/1 48,757 53,026 51,578 52,498 Pullets placed (000) 6,221 6,697 6,502 NA Hvy-type hen slaughter 6,386 4,702 5,384 5,500 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 32,333 34,956 30,883 31,878 Poults placed (000) 25,354 26,321 23,907 24,587 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.)/2 462 454 445 465 Table egg layers, (000)/1 247,144 242,925 245,255 249,672 Table eggs/100 layers/1 71.7 71.9 72.2 71.7 Chicks hatched (000) 33,065 32,903 35,794 33,000 Lt.-type hen slaughter 8,141 7,884 6,982 8,300 ESTIMATED RETURNS Nov-96 Sep-97 Oct-97 Nov-97 /* Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 68.74 66.95 69.65 69.06 Selling price 70.70 66.04 66.93 66.50 Net margin 1.96 -0.91 -2.72 -2.56 N. Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price /3 48.94 45.88 45.52 44.90 Selling price 54.33 49.99 46.62 45.00 Net margin 5.39 4.11 1.10 0.10 Broiler Wholesale cost 55.01 52.48 52.85 52.93 Wholesale price 64.37 59.86 55.39 55.00 Net margin 9.36 7.38 2.54 2.07 Turkey Wholesale cost 75.50 69.37 67.77 68.35 Wholesale price 71.13 65.60 65.29 68.00 Net margin -4.37 -3.77 -2.48 -0.35 Egg Wholesale cost 71.96 71.80 71.81 70.08 Wholesale price 103.32 85.00 79.47 99.00 Net margin 31.36 13.20 7.66 28.92 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* estimate LIVESTOCK PRICES Nov-96 Sep-97 Oct-97 Nov-97 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 70.70 66.04 66.93 66.50 Nebraska Direct 72.61 66.22 67.08 67.35 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 29.07 34.32 33.71 33.75 Utility boning 25.17 32.41 31.71 32.25 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 68.00 90.35 89.81 85.10 600-650 lb. 64.44 85.02 79.55 80.15 750-800 lb. 67.19 78.57 76.84 76.40 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 57.25 80.97 77.55 76.85 700-750 lb. 61.16 74.80 71.49 72.00 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 54.75 49.42 46.17 44.50 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 54.33 49.99 46.62 45.00 Sows 6 Markets 54.36 41.48 39.32 36.75 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) 28.03 NA NA NA Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 80.00 85.45 82.75 82.00 Ewes, Good 42.08 44.20 45.44 49.00 Feeder lambs, Choice 92.33 98.10 96.31 97.00 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES Nov-96 Sep-97 Oct-97 Nov-97 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 2.63 2.61 2.66 2.71 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 4.73 3.77 3.78 3.75 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 251.48 278.29 229.28 244.00 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 100.00 106.00 109.00 98.20 Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 95.40 101.00 103.00 95.10 /* Estimates MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - Nov-96 Nov-97 Sep-97 Oct-97 /* Nov-97 /* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 23,469 23,698 2,127 2,307 2,253 Veal 336 296 28 28 22 Pork 15,656 15,556 1,489 1,654 1,425 Lamb 242 232 21 22 18 Total red meat 39,703 39,782 3,665 4,011 3,718 Broilers 24,237 24,881 2,241 2,500 2,000 Other chicken 451 464 40 45 35 Turkeys 5,055 4,990 462 490 450 Total poultry 29,743 30,335 2,743 3,035 2,485 Total meat & poultry 69,446 70,117 6,408 7,046 6,203 Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 33,707 33,873 2,971 3,240 3,156 Steers 16,540 16,367 1,438 1,456 1,408 Heifers 9,869 10,851 962 1,090 1,042 Beef Cows 3,786 3,286 278 352 363 Dairy Cows 2,834 2,750 246 278 281 Bulls and stags 678 657 61 64 63 Calves 1,615 1,417 136 142 111 Sheep 3,836 3,526 323 330 279 Hogs 84,773 83,193 8,020 8,792 7,575 Barrows & gilts 80,902 79,469 7,715 8,115 7,265 Sows 3,240 2,858 285 295 265 Broilers 6,951,209 7,024,675 635,584 680,000 565,000 Turkeys 271,286 265,057 25,370 26,000 24,500 Nov-96 Aug-97 Sep-97 Oct-97 /* Nov-97 /* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 687 721 723 719 721 Calves 209 206 204 205 206 Sheep 63 64 65 66 66 Hogs 189 185 187 189 189 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 295.9 302.7 324.7 347.7 NA Pork 333.3 387.7 371.7 341.9 NA Bellies 16.2 33.7 18.3 11.1 NA Hams 80.4 113.2 113.5 101.3 NA Total chicken 591.5 666.1 566.9 552.9 NA Turkey 658.3 713.8 742.0 769.5 NA Frozen eggs 12.6 9.2 11.1 10.8 NA /* Estimates WHOLESALE PRICES Nov-96 Sep-97 Oct-97 Nov-97 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 117.53 104.06 103.72 104.80 Choice 1-3 700-850# 115.57 102.58 102.86 104.40 Select 1-3 700-850# 97.15 94.62 93.27 94.75 Cutter Cow 53.90 63.89 59.76 60.50 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 78.38 83.58 80.69 83.00 Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 85.44 86.50 85.20 86.00 Hide & offal value 9.34 8.55 8.80 8.75 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 161.85 187.71 177.75 168.00 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 75.86 70.84 66.12 65.25 Loins, 14-18 lb. 115.39 112.07 99.68 84.25 Bellies, 12-14 lb. 65.27 72.25 57.97 54.50 Hams, 20-26 lb. 74.83 62.70 59.89 67.00 Trimmings, 72% fresh 64.49 59.89 55.78 52.50 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. down, Choice 165.25 178.42 166.65 170.50 55-65 lb., Choice 165.25 178.42 166.25 168.50 Broilers 12 City Avg. 64.37 59.86 55.39 55.00 Georgia dock 64.83 61.34 58.23 57.00 Northeast Breast, boneless 169.92 178.86 170.18 155.00 Breast, Ribs on 84.95 82.78 76.98 77.00 Legs, whole 60.17 47.33 46.02 46.00 Leg quarters 45.60 30.25 30.22 31.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 70.63 64.21 64.31 69.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 73.58 67.89 67.33 70.00 Drumsticks 34.78 29.15 34.10 32.00 Wings, full cut 43.22 36.81 41.31 42.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 103.32 85.00 79.47 99.00 New York 102.50 82.40 77.04 97.00 /* Estimate RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Oct-96 Aug-97 Sep-97 Oct-97 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 281.9 281.0 283.0 279.0 Beef - All Fresh 250.2 254.6 253.4 252.7 Ground Beef 137.1 139.4 142.0 140.6 Rib roast 509.5 516.3 531.3 523.2 T-bone steak 565.0 578.0 603.5 591.5 Pork 233.0 236.0 234.7 234.9 Bacon 272.1 275.5 275.0 273.0 Chops 347.4 355.8 352.5 348.7 Picnic 126.4 127.7 127.2 127.4 Chicken - Composite 152.9 149.5 152.7 148.8 Whole, fresh 102.1 98.8 99.2 98.4 Breast - bone in 201.4 202.7 209.4 198.2 Leg quarter 128.5 121.6 122.7 123.6 Turkey; whole frozen 107.4 109.2 108.9 106.2 Eggs, Grade A, Large 112.9 106.1 100.9 101.8 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 158.3 160.8 161.2 161.6 All food 155.4 157.6 157.9 158.2 All meat 143.6 145.5 145.6 145.2 Beef & veal 136.0 137.0 137.2 137.1 Pork 156.0 158.6 158.9 157.4 Poultry 157.1 155.6 156.8 155.6 Dairy Products 149.3 143.4 143.5 145.7 Fluid milk & cream 149.0 141.7 141.4 145.3 Manufactured products 150.2 145.8 146.4 146.8 Price Spreads Cents/lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 20.5 23.2 21.6 20.5 Wholesale to retail 114.9 119.8 123.6 120.3 Farmers share (%) 52.0 49.0 49.0 50.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 34.4 38.2 39.1 37.3 Wholesale to retail 111.3 112.7 117.3 124.4 Farmers share (%) 37.0 36.0 33.0 31.0 Poultry and eggs Wholesale to retail Broilers 87.2 84.9 93.4 92.3 Retail to consumer Turkey 28.9 34.5 34.3 31.9 Eggs 24.7 29.8 16.9 23.3 U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Jul-97 Aug-97 Jan - Jan - Aug-96 Aug-97 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 56,069 70,247 354,326 444,817 New Zealand 59,673 44,385 410,158 469,658 Canada 44,449 54,741 380,184 452,413 Brazil 8,878 7,425 60,157 65,740 Argentina 12,614 11,558 100,624 93,490 Central America 4,031 8,364 70,672 59,240 Other 6,793 4,211 50,287 60,043 Total 192,509 200,930 1,426,409 1,645,402 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 91,224 93,797 739,193 689,752 Canada 37,274 27,703 200,757 191,652 Mexico 28,905 29,393 102,223 183,981 Korea, Rep. 26,064 28,472 136,099 172,783 Caribbean 1,072 811 7,971 8,291 Other 16,645 22,301 109,930 124,987 Total 201,183 202,476 1,296,173 1,371,446 Cattle Imports Mexico 20,543 23,149 230,516 337,570 Canada 108,286 99,663 1,106,753 908,753 Over 700 lbs. 103,471 91,782 1,008,481 799,110 500-700 lbs. 1,744 3,635 56,952 74,025 Total 128,829 122,823 1,337,306 1,246,341 Cattle Exports Mexico 22,479 25,874 64,513 148,631 Canada 3,296 3,224 24,006 24,250 Total 25,937 29,330 105,038 176,637 Lamb Imports Australia 2,288 1,860 17,342 22,375 New Zealand 1,711 1,899 17,245 19,418 Total 4,074 3,784 34,883 42,429 Mutton Imports 1,470 1,293 15,202 16,650 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Customs Service YTD imports under WTO 11/17/96 11/09/97 % Chg Canada 441,166 491,296 11.4% TRQ Countries/* 792,693 878,480 10.8% Australia 352,283 398,649 13.2% New Zealand 338,626 384,083 13.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------ /* 1996 data includes Uruguay 1997 data includes Uruguay and Argentina Jul-97 Aug-97 Jan - Jan - Aug-96 Aug-97 Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lb. Canada 35,982 37,201 282,135 277,382 Denmark 8,689 9,021 83,576 85,512 Poland 1,388 740 6,592 8,851 Hungary 616 805 6,504 6,239 Netherlands 790 84 6,336 4,687 Other 3,933 2,281 19,666 26,524 Total 51,397 50,131 404,808 409,194 Pork Exports Japan 42,856 44,292 371,237 304,644 Canada 9,754 9,020 64,154 79,722 Mexico 7,467 6,983 30,704 47,508 Caribbean 716 920 6,554 7,084 Other 27,974 32,374 180,153 206,625 Total 88,767 93,589 652,802 645,583 Hog Imports Head Canada 261,223 227,802 1,780,028 1,998,921 Under 110 lb 89,110 71,152 518,510 652,845 Total 261,683 227,802 1,780,192 2,000,089 Hog Exports Total 3,170 1,777 42,375 32,593 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 16,686 19,241 163,266 131,550 Mexico 20,345 21,800 138,930 159,676 Hong Kong 84,392 74,098 666,513 568,983 Singapore 2,362 3,185 33,899 22,607 Canada 11,509 11,782 48,885 78,529 Former USSR 157,196 176,683 1,184,242 1,346,337 Total 398,646 432,935 2,911,970 3,019,447 Turkey Exports Mexico 12,671 16,459 92,846 116,423 S. Korea 2,845 2,423 16,430 17,373 Hong Kong 11,058 11,249 14,301 79,809 Total 48,067 48,927 280,527 373,751 Shell thousand dz. Egg Exports 6,959 7,780 74,892 61,035 MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS Oct-96 Aug-97 Sep-97 Oct-97 Milk production Production - 21 States, Mil. lb 10,831 11,227 10,686 11,030 Milk cow number - 21 States, Thou 7,788 7,744 7,736 7,737 Milk per cow - 21 States, Lb 1,391 1,450 1,381 1,426 Production - U.S., Mil. lb 12,725 13,098 12,462 12,892 Milk prices: Dol./cwt All milk 16.40 12.70 13.20 13.60 Milk for fluid use 16.40 12.70 13.20 13.60 Manuf. grade milk 14.60 11.90 12.70 13.00 Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 14.13 12.07 12.79 12.83 Wholesale prices: cents/lb Grade A butter 128.6 102.5 101.6 135.3 Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 162.3 137.6 141.4 142.4 Barrels 148.2 129.4 133.6 136.3 Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 131.6 107.2 107.1 106.9 International prices: $/metric ton Butter 1,550 1,819 1,951 2,145 Nonfat dry milk 1,918 1,625 1,662 1,723 Beginning stocks: Mil. lb Commercial butter 20.9 62.1 48.1 30.2 Commercial American cheese 372.4 469.1 459.2 422.6 Other cheese 123.2 135.9 122.8 110.1 Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 50.2 160.6 156.3 133.9 All commercial (mf. basis) 4,936 6,858 6,361 5,545 All commercial (ss. basis) 5,618 8,004 7,720 6,983 All Government (mf. basis) 17 31 32 18 All Government (ss. basis) 10 55 84 99 USDA net removals: Mil. lb Butter 4.6 5.1 5.3 Cheese 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 Nonfat dry milk 3.0 35.1 34.7 24.2 All products (mf basis 2/) 4.4 122.4 129.2 131.1 All products (ss basis 2/) 39.6 424.7 417.2 293.5 Sep-96 Jul-97 Aug-97 Sep-97 Dairy product output: Mil. lb Butter 80.7 81.9 70.3 79.0 American cheese 254.5 283.9 258.7 261.9 Other-than-American cheese 330.0 331.4 342.3 349.8 Frozen products 1/, Mil. gal. 101.4 127.1 112.8 99.8 All products (mf basis 2/) 7440.3 8297.5 7692.4 7719.6 Nonfat dry milk 56.0 112.0 90.8 78.7 Commercial disappearance: Mil. l Butter 86.6 73.6 79.7 NA American cheese 266.5 277.9 271.0 NA Other-than-American cheese 362.6 358.9 379.2 NA Nonfat dry milk 71.1 101.7 60.6 NA All products (mf. basis) 12654.0 13231.0 13583.0 NA Imports (mf basis 2/) 294.8 206.4 228.5 NA 1/Milk equivalent 2/Hard Ice cream, ice milk, & sherbert NA=Not Available Annual Forecasts 1995 1996 1997 1998 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions 6,743 6,928 7,166 7,343 CPI-U, Annual % Ch 2.7 3.2 2.3 2.8 Unemployment rate, 5.6 5.4 5.0 5.0 3-Month T Bill,% 5.5 5.0 5.1 5.2 10-Year Bond,% 6.6 6.4 6.5 6.4 Production, million lb. Beef 25,115 25,419 25,313 24,750 Pork 17,811 17,085 17,029 18,500 Broilers 25,021 26,336 27,281 29,200 Turkeys 5,129 5,466 5,475 5,725 Total Red Meat & 74,070 75,303 76,046 79,038 Eggs, mil doz. 5,269 5,393 5,430 5,525 Milk 155,425 154,331 156,859 157,100 Commercial use 154,857 15,060 157,426 158,300 Net removals (m 2,102 89 1,065 900 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 67.5 67.7 66.9 65.5 Pork 52.5 49.1 48.0 51.7 Broilers 68.8 70.8 72.7 77.4 Turkeys 17.9 18.5 18.0 18.9 Total Red Meat & 210.3 209.2 208.2 215.9 Eggs, number 236 237 238 239 Market Prices Choice steers, Ne 66.24 65.21 64-6 71-76 Feeder steers,Ok 68.03 61.08 73-7 77-82 Bng Ut Cows,S. Fa 35.58 30.33 33-3 41-44 Barrows & gilts,I 42.35 53.39 50-5 45-49 Broilers, 12 City 56.38 61.24 58-6 57-62 Turkeys, Eastern, 66.35 66.50 64-6 62-66 Eggs, New York, c 72.85 88.18 77-8 72-78 Milk, all at plan 12.74 14.74 12.9-13.7 12.7-13.5 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 11.83 13.39 11.6-12.4 11.6-12.4 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal expor 1,821 1,877 1,978 2,095 Beef & veal impor 2,103 2,073 2,387 2,680 Pork exports 771 951 1,064 1,150 Pork imports 664 618 620 615 Broiler exports 3,894 4,420 4,655 4,750 Turkey exports 348 438 567 575 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1997 Quarterly 1996/98 Forecasts QI'96 QII'96 QIII'96 QIV'96 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,814 6,885 6,930 7,009 CPI-U, Ann. % Chang 2.8 3.8 2.3 3.2 Unemployment rate, 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.3 3-Month T Bill,% 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 10-Year Bond,% 5.9 6.7 6.8 6.3 Production, million Beef 6,303 6,642 6,390 6,084 Pork 4,389 4,104 4,143 4,449 Broilers 6,610 6,571 6,628 6,527 Turkeys 1,270 1,378 1,415 1,403 Total Meat 18,847 18,931 18,807 18,717 Eggs, mil doz. 1,330 1,320 1,352 1,392 Milk (mf basis) 39,053 39,638 37,674 37,966 Commercial use 37,671 39,833 38,749 38,807 Net removals 19 29 19 22 Consumption, Retail Beef 17.0 17.5 17.0 16.2 Pork 12.6 11.6 12.0 12.9 Broilers 17.6 18.0 18.1 17.1 Turkeys 3.7 3.9 4.6 6.2 Total Meat 51.8 51.9 52.5 53.0 Eggs, number 58.8 58.0 59.1 61.2 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 63.06 60.26 67.13 70.39 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 58.11 56.87 63.20 66.15 Brk Cows,S. Falls 32.52 30.37 31.74 26.68 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 46.23 54.82 57.75 54.75 Broiler,12 City 56.22 61.07 64.22 63.46 Turkeys, Eastern 64.80 65.40 64.90 70.90 Eggs, New York 89.60 80.50 85.90 96.70 Milk, all at plant 13.83 14.27 15.80 15.07 Milk, M-W 12.67 13.59 14.93 12.36 U.S. Trade, million Beef/veal exports 452 544 436 445 Beef/veal imports 508 526 555 484 Pork exports 221 313 180 237 Pork imports 144 155 154 165 Broiler exports 1,075 1,057 1,121 1,167 Turkey exports 96 93 124 125 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1997 QI'97 QII'97 QIII'97 QIV'97 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 7,089 7,140 7,185 7,235 CPI-U, Ann. % Chang 2.4 1.1 2.2 2.8 Unemployment rate, 5.3 4.9 4.8 4.9 3-Month T Bill,% 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 6.6 6.7 6.4 6.5 Production, million Beef 6,112 6,419 6,607 6,175 Pork 4,194 4,091 4,194 4,550 Broilers 6,628 6,948 6,805 6,900 Turkeys 1,235 1,404 1,410 1,425 Total Meat 18,426 19,100 19,234 19,286 Eggs, mil doz. 1,344 1,336 1,350 1,400 Milk (mf basis) 38,922 40,648 38,989 38,300 Commercial use 38,517 39,064 40,345 39,500 Net removals 99 285 381 300 Consumption, Retail Beef 16.2 17.1 17.2 16.4 Pork 11.8 11.6 12.0 12.7 Broilers 17.6 18.8 18.5 17.7 Turkeys 3.5 4.0 4.3 6.3 Total Meat 49.7 52.2 52.6 53.7 Eggs, number 58.8 59.0 59.4 61.2 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 66.40 66.63 63-6 65-71 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 69.42 75.88 77-8 75-81 Brk Cows,S. Falls 32.02 37.05 34-3 31-33 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 51.06 56.41 52-5 44-48 Broiler,12 City 60.00 59.10 60-6 55-59 Turkeys, Eastern 58.90 66.10 65-7 69-75 Eggs, New York 84.90 72.10 77-8 80-86 Milk, all at plant 13.47 12.93 12.2-13.2 13.8-14.8 Milk, M-W 12.30 10.96 11.4-12.4 12.4-13.4 U.S. Trade, million Beef/veal exports 455 513 540 470 Beef/veal imports 536 716 600 535 Pork exports 192 271 286 315 Pork imports 158 150 150 162 Broiler exports 1,090 1,098 1,195 1,272 Turkey exports 128 149 145 145 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1997 QI'98 QII'98 QIII '98 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 7,281 7,324 7,360 CPI-U, Ann. % Chang 2.7 3.0 2.9 Unemployment rate, 5.0 5.0 5.0 3-Month T Bill,% 5.3 5.3 5.2 10-Year Bond,% 6.8 6.5 6.4 Production, million Beef 6,100 6,200 6,500 Pork 4,500 4,500 4,600 Broilers 7,100 7,350 7,500 Turkeys 1,300 1,450 1,500 Total Meat 19,232 19,708 20,299 Eggs, mil doz. 1,350 1,350 1,400 Milk (mf basis) 39,200 40,800 38,700 Commercial use 38,800 39,700 40,100 Net removals 300 300 200 Consumption, Retail Beef 16.4 16.6 17.1 Pork 12.7 12.5 12.9 Broilers 18.9 19.9 19.9 Turkeys 4.0 4.1 4.6 Total Meat 52.6 53.7 55.1 Eggs, number 58.5 58.3 60.8 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 70-72 71-77 71-77 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 76-80 78-84 76-82 Brk Cows,S. Falls 39-41 42-46 41-45 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 45-47 46-50 47-51 Broiler,12 City 56-58 58-62 60-64 Turkeys, Eastern 59-61 60-64 62-68 Eggs, New York 74-77 68-72 72-78 Milk, all at plant 13.1-13.7 11.9-12.7 12.1-13.1 Milk, M-W 11.6-12.1 10.7-11.5 11.4-12.4 U.S. Trade, million Beef/veal exports 475 540 540 Beef/veal imports 680 725 695 Pork exports 256 286 290 Pork imports 150 150 150 Broiler exports 1,100 1,100 1,200 Turkey exports 135 150 140 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, August 1997 END_OF_FILE