LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY January 16, 1998 January 1998, LDP-49 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY is published six times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #ERS-LDP, $32/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Due to declining resources and the need to place more emphasis on longer term market relationships, the Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Situation and Outlook will be published 6 times in 1998. Subsequent issues are scheduled for February 19, May 19, July 16, August 17, and November 17. The release time has been standardized to 3 pm ET. U.S. livestock and poultry prices are under pressure from large meat supplies and reduced prospects for exports in 1998. Even so, the currency devaluations in other countries and the need to find alternative meat markets due to economic problems in Asia are making the U.S. a more attractive market for foreign exporters and hurting the U.S. in world competition. As a result, net exports of U.S. red meat are expected to shrink in 1998, further adding to abundant meat supplies. Expected lower feed costs in 1998 will partially offset lower hog and poultry prices, softening the effect on producers' net returns. Projected U.S. 1997/98 ending stocks of corn are down 4 percent from 1996/97, implying another year of relatively tight stocks. The low ending stocks could lead to volatile prices if weather conditions do not favor a large crop this year. However, the concern about exports is moderated by weaker global demands and increased world competition. The season average farm corn price for the 1997/98 marketing year is projected to be $2.45-$2.75 per bushel, compared with $2.71 a year ago and $3.24 two years ago. Record global oilseed production and declines in trade and consumption are pressuring soybean meal prices downward. U.S. soybean meal production is expected to be up about 4 percent from a year earlier in 1997/98. Soybean meal prices are expected to average $195-$220 per ton, compared with $271 in 1996/97. In 1997 hog producers' returns were relatively favorable due to relatively high hog prices and declining feed costs from the record high grain prices in 1996. However, producers' returns turned below breakeven at the end of the year as hog and wholesale pork prices plummeted. Hogs and Pigs Report Indicates Larger Production The December Hogs and Pigs report confirms the forecast of an 8-percent increase in pork production in 1998. Producers increased their herds as expected, given the relatively favorable returns prior to December 1. Farrowing intentions reported for December-May were up 6 percent from the same period a year ago. The market hog inventory on December 1 was 7 percent above last year, while the breeding inventory was up 5 percent. The September- November pig crop was up 9 percent, about the same as anticipated from the June farrowing intentions and reflecting the continuing rise in pigs per litter. With higher production and declining exports, 1998 per capita consumption is expected to be the largest since 1994, increasing 4 pounds from 1997 (8 percent). Hog prices are expected to average around $40 per cwt, compared with $51 last year. Although feed costs are expected to be lower this year, the sharp break in hog prices will greatly reduce producers' returns. In past years, producers began reducing their herds after several months of poor returns. The 1998 production forecasts include some reduction in the breeding inventory later this year. Based on the market hog inventory, pig crops, and farrowing intentions reported in December, production in 1998 is expected to total about 18.7 billion pounds, up 8 percent from last year. The June-August pig crop implies a first-quarter 1998 slaughter of about 24 million head, up 8 percent from last year. A slightly larger percentage of the pig crop will likely be slaughtered in 1998 than last year. Dressed weights for the quarter are expected to average about 2 pounds heavier, boosting pork production about 9 percent. Most of the September-November pig crop will be slaughtered in second-quarter 1998. Second-quarter 1998 slaughter is expected to total about 23.9 million head, up about 9 percent from 1997. The average dressed weight is expected to be about 2 pounds heavier, raising pork production for the quarter about 11 percent over a year earlier. December-February farrowing intentions as of December 1 are 9 percent over a year ago. In September, intentions were up 8 percent for the same period. With the trend of rising pigs per litter, the projected December-February pig crop would be up about 10 percent, implying a third-quarter slaughter of about 25 million head. December 1 farrowing intentions for March-May were 3 percent above last year, implying a pig crop increase of about 5 percent. If the intentions are realized, fourth-quarter 1998 slaughter would total about 26.2 million head, up about 4 percent from a year earlier. Frozen Pork Stocks Higher Frozen pork stocks as of November 30 were 5 percent above a year earlier. Stocks showed a greater year-over-year increase earlier in the year with a buildup in anticipation that export demand would strengthen when Japan lifted its Safeguard mechanism on July 1. Stocks have been reduced since then and will likely remain down with the expected pork production increases and dimmer prospects for exports in the coming months. Hog Prices To Decline in 1998 Hog prices in 1998 are expected to average near $40 per cwt as domestic production increases, net pork exports shrink, and competitive meat supplies expand. Hog prices are expected to remain in the $30's per cwt until late spring as pork production increases at near double-digit rates. Early this year beef and poultry production is expected to increase 3-4 percent. Later in the year beef production is expected to decline on a year-over-year basis and provide some support to pork prices. However, the impact of declining beef production will likely be muted by reduced beef exports and increased imports as the U.S. becomes a lucrative market due to the strength of the dollar versus other currencies. Composite retail pork prices in December continued to drop as they have since reaching a record high of $2.36 per pound in August. Although retail prices have declined, the farm-retail spread is record wide as farm value has dropped more than retail prices. Retail prices are expected to drop even further in the coming months, narrowing the farm-retail spread. The price spread merely reports the difference between farm and retail values for an equivalent quantity and quality of product. With expectations of plentiful supplies of pork and competing meats through next year, pork features should increase and bring lower prices. For all of 1998, composite pork prices are expected to average 5-7 percent lower than last year. Pork Farm-Retail Spreads To Remain Wide ERS studies on price spreads and price lags show that hog prices react much more quickly and with more volatility than retail prices to changes in pork supplies. Retailers prefer less fluctuation in their prices and thus may be willing to have their returns affected on a specified product until they can be assured there is a real price trend and not just a short term market aberration. Studies on retail pork price lags have shown that retailers do respond 24 percent faster to upward price changes than to downward farm-level price movements. Regardless, over a period of several months retail prices do adjust to both upward and downward farm price movements with spreads returning to more normal levels. When price movements in one direction continue for several months, retail changes may not catch up to farm level changes for some time. This can occur even if the retail prices were to decrease at the same rate after an initial lag. Retail pork prices, while decreasing, have not kept pace with the farm price change and the spread for early 1998 is expected to continue to be record high. Generally, a single change in price may take up to a year to adjust, so retail price adjustments may take place over most of 1998 from the hog price declines in second-half 1997. Pork Exports Lower In 1998 U.S. pork exports in 1998 are expected to be 990 million pounds, off 10 percent from previous estimates to account for expected reductions in Asian demand. In Korea, lower incomes, a sharply depreciated currency, and increased domestic supplies due to herd liquidation will cut demand for imported pork. Increased Korean pork production and the dramatically depreciated won makes Korean fresh pork loins an attractive buy for Japanese importers. Consequently, U.S. exports to Japan are also expected to be off in 1998, primarily due to losses in market share to lower priced Korean pork products and a stronger U.S. dollar. The U.S. is expected to import 575 million pounds of pork in 1998, down roughly 7 percent from late 1997 estimates. The reduction is due to increased domestic pork production and lower exports. U.S. trade in live hogs has been jolted since mid-November by significant increases in imports from Canada. Increased imports are the result of a work stoppage at the Maple Leaf slaughter facility in Ontario, and the "work to rule" decision (ie, a labor union action, whereby union member/ employees perform on-the-job tasks only as strictly defined in their job descriptions) by employees of the only other large slaughter facility in the province, the Quality Meats facility. Estimates of fourth quarter U.S. hog imports were increased 23 percent to 800,000 head, for a 1997 total of 3.1 million head. First-quarter 1998 imports should be lower, due to seasonal factors, higher slaughter in provinces neighboring Ontario, recent recision of the "work to rule" decision, and lower U.S. hog prices. Total U.S. hog imports for 1998 are expected to be 2.5 million head. Beef Production Declines, Consumption To Rise Analysts expect a bullish January 1, 1998, cattle inventory, when the Cattle report is released January 30. However, the market must first work through large beef supplies this winter and early spring. Commercial beef production in 1998 is expected to fall nearly 2 percent from 1997. However, the Asian financial crisis and the strong U.S. dollar are expected to lead to lower beef exports and rising imports. The end result is a rise in domestic supplies and a less robust first-half price scenario. Declining beef production and stronger prices will not begin until mid-spring as herd rebuilding begins. Beef production this winter is expected to be up about 3 percent from a year earlier, but about unchanged from the 1996 level. Feedlot placements have been below a year earlier since October and will continue to decline for the next couple of years. Cow slaughter, already down, will decline fairly sharply as the spring grazing season approaches. Together with lower fed cattle marketings this spring, the reduced cow slaughter will begin a positive scenario for the cattle sector that will likely extend through the turn of the century. Heifer and cow slaughter has been large for the last couple of years and the female inventory as of January 1 will provide a view as to how tight the beef market may become over the next 2 to 4 years. However, large supplies of competing meats and a less than robust international trade scenario will hold down price increases in 1998 until at least late summer. U.S. Beef Exports Suffer as Dollar Appreciates in the Pacific Rim U.S. beef exports are likely to decline about 5 percent to 1,985 million pounds in 1998 as declining sales to the Pacific Rim overwhelm any increased sales to Mexico. The financial crisis in the Pacific Rim exacerbates an underlying exchange rate shift that has occurred over the past 6 months. The U.S. dollar has been steadily appreciating against the yen since mid-1995 but the Australian dollar, which had been moving in the same direction, stabilized in the past 6 months as the two currencies declined almost in tandem. Between June and December 1997, the yen declined 12 percent against the U.S. dollar but remained steady against the Australian dollar. Even prior to the collapse of South Korea's won in late 1997, the same pattern existed between the U.S. and Australian dollar in Korea. Since June the won fell 67 percent against the U.S. dollar but only 49 percent against Australia's currency. Thus, in two important markets for U.S. meat, Australian product has been becoming more attractive to Pacific Rim buyers. Compounding this are an expected slowdown in income growth in the Pacific Rim that could limit imports in Japan and expected increases in U.S. beef prices in 1998. If the current trend in exchange rate movement continues into 1998, the United States could see an erosion of market share in the Pacific Rim, especially since U.S. fed cattle prices are expected to increase about 4 percent in 1998. The loss of market share will likely be less in Japan than in Korea due to differences in import systems. Although Australian saleyard prices are expected to increase about 10 percent, the increase in terms of product shipped to Japan will likely be less. Much of the support for average saleyard prices is expected to come from sales of processing grade beef to the United States. Continued weakness in the Australian dollar vis-a-vis the yen could mitigate the price rises in short-fed and higher quality range-fed beef, which is preferred by the Japanese market. Korea is required to import at least 187,000 tons (product weight) of beef in accordance with its Uruguay Round commitments. Because 40 percent of 1998's imports will be through tenders, which can in effect steer demand toward products of a specific quality, the exchange rate movements may be somewhat less important in that segment. But the remaining 60 percent imported under the Simultaneous Buy-Sell (SBS) system will likely be driven by relative cost concerns. Although the collapse of the won has made imports from all sources more costly, the weakness in the Australian dollar vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar will make Australian product more desirable. Given the shortage of foreign exchange, it is likely that Korean buyers will try to fill their import commitments with the lowest value product possible. Tenders will likely favor the lowest-valued products and purchasers of product under the SBS system will be very price sensitive. Imports under both the quota and SBS will tend to favor Australia, causing U.S. export shares in Korea to fall significantly. Seasonal Declines in Cheese Prices Delayed Wholesale prices of cheese have thus far largely resisted seasonal declines, as strong late 1997 sales absorbed current production and pulled stocks down briskly. The strength in cheese prices was reflected in a higher-than-expected Basic Formula Price (BFP) in December and will help hold up the BFP in early 1998. Even so, large seasonal declines still are expected this winter, once the buildup in production starts to overwhelm the normally sluggish winter use and stocks begin to grow. Butter prices are down sharply from the high levels of November but are relatively high for a seasonally very weak time of year. Sales of milkfat products reportedly have been brisk and late 1997 butter stocks were quite low. In addition, Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP) contracts have snapped up any butter that became available. Prices of nonfat dry milk remain the major source in weakness in milk prices, even though they have not yet reflected the almost 2-cent reduction in the support purchase price on January 1. Stocks likely remain high, while commercial use lags. In addition, the limits on DEIP contracts probably will become increasingly important this winter and spring. Broiler Production Forecast Lowered Broiler meat production for 1998 is expected to be about 28.8 billion pounds, 5-6 percent larger than in 1997. Weaker net returns during the fourth quarter of 1997 have slowed the pace of broiler production increases from what was previously expected. Broiler meat production for 1997 is expected to be about 27.3 billion pounds, up 4 percent from 1996. This would be the smallest increase since 1983. The uncertain export market, higher than expected feed costs, and record wholesale-to-retail spreads all contributed to slowing production increases in 1997. These factors are expected to continue in 1998, causing the forecast rate of production to be lower than was anticipated in late 1997. Broiler prices have shown a little strength in the first week of January as prices recovered from near break-even levels. Delayed movement of birds to slaughter, caused by the recent snow, ice, and rain storms, has led to the price strength. Turkey Production Forecast Lowered Weak net returns during 1996 and 1997 are keeping pressure on turkey producers to hold down production levels. Prices for turkeys stopped increasing as pork production picked up in the second half of 1997. With accelerating production increases for pork in 1998, turkey prices are expected to remain weak. This has led to 3-percent lower poult placements for September through December. If poult placements are stronger in future months and bird weights continue to increase about 1 percent, production for 1998 will be about unchanged from both 1996 and 1997. Egg Consumption Increasing Table egg production is expected to be about 2 percent higher than a year ago as the production flock expands due to continued strong net returns. Higher production and lower exports during 1997 led to larger consumption of eggs, 239 per capita, the highest since 1988. With stronger production increases and lower prices in 1998, consumption is expected to increase to about 240 eggs per person. Declines in shell egg consumption and increases in egg product use are expected to continue. Poultry Export Forecasts Lowered Over the past several months there have been three distinct forces affecting the forecast for 1998 U.S. poultry exports. First is the continuing financial crisis in many Asian countries. While some of the severely affected countries, such as Indonesia and Thailand, are not major markets for U.S. poultry, Korea is a major market for U.S. turkey and Japan is one of the largest markets for U.S. poultry. The second factor is that currencies in Thailand and Brazil have depreciated considerably against the dollar over the last several months. Both these countries are major poultry exporters and compete with the United States in many major markets. Their current devaluations give Thailand and Brazil a price advantage over the U.S. Thirdly, there is the outbreak of avian influenza in Hong Kong, a situation where many of the particulars are still being investigated. However, the potential of a new strain of influenza that can be transmitted from live poultry to humans could have serious impacts on poultry shipments. Hong Kong is the second largest market for U.S. broilers and turkeys, and the largest market for U.S. other chicken products. These three factors led to a lowering of the 1998 export forecast for broilers, turkeys, and other chickens. The forecast for broilers has been lowered by 100 million pounds and expected exports for turkeys and other chickens have been reduced by 40 million pounds each from late 1997. U.S. broiler exports for 1998 are now expected to be 4.750 billion pounds. Most of the reduction from the previous estimate is expected to be from lower shipments to Hong Kong and Japan. In Hong Kong, consumers have severely curtailed purchases of poultry products due to the continuing avian flu crisis. While this affects U.S. exports to Hong Kong, it also affects U.S. exports to China through Hong Kong. Hong Kong has temporarily banned imports of live birds from China, which has lowered prices in China and reduced China's need to import poultry parts from the United States. The reductions in the Japanese markets are expected to be the result of stronger competition from producers in Thailand and Brazil. Asian markets are expected to show little growth or decline in 1998, but shipments to other markets are expected to continue to grow. Exports to Russia, the Baltic States, South Africa, and others are expected to increase, but at a slower rate than in 1997. Even with higher export quantities, export values may decline due to lower prices brought on by strong competition among broiler exporters and the availability of low cost U.S. pork products. Exports of turkey and turkey products are expected to total 610 million pounds in 1998, down 6 percent from the previous estimate. Most of the decline is from expected smaller shipments to Hong Kong and Korea. As with broilers, consumers in Hong Kong have greatly reduced their turkey consumption. Hong Kong is the second largest market for U.S. turkey exports. With the devaluation of its currency, Korea is expected to reduce imports of U.S. turkey products. The reductions in Asian markets are expected to be partially offset by higher shipments to Mexico, our largest market, as economic growth there fuels demand for poultry products. Exports of mature chicken are now forecast at 390 million pounds in 1998, with the decline coming from smaller shipments chiefly to Hong Kong and Japan. While Asian markets are expected to be weak, growth in shipments to Mexico, Canada, and other markets is forecast to partially reduce the overall decline. Copies of the Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Situation and Outlook are available through the ERS Autofax System. Using a telephone attached to a fax machine, call 202-694-5700 and request Document Number 20100. Principal Contributors - (202) 694-5180 Leland Southard, (Coordinator), Milton Madison (Poultry), David Harvey (Poultry Trade), Ron Gustafson, (Cattle), Shayle Shagam (Beef Trade), Mildred Haley (Pork Trade), Jim Miller (Dairy), Laverne Williams (Statistics) Hogs on farms, farrowings, and pig crops, U.S. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Inventory 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 Head March 1 inventory 57,350 58,465 56,340 55,810 Breeding 7,210 6,998 6,765 6,838 Market 50,140 51,467 49,575 48,972 Under 60 lb 18,780 19,251 18,790 18,564 60-119 lb 12,190 12,498 11,980 11,714 120-179 lb 10,430 10,594 10,095 10,026 180 + lb 8,740 9,124 8,710 8,668 June 1 inventory 60,715 59,560 57,150 58,100 Breeding 7,565 7,180 6,860 6,945 Market 53,150 52,380 50,290 51,155 Under 60 lb 22,125 21,270 20,245 20,585 60-119 lb 13,145 13,060 12,690 12,870 120-179 lb 9,825 9,865 9,795 9,925 180 + lb 8,055 8,185 7,560 7,775 Sept. 1 inventory 62,320 60,540 58,150 60,384 Breeding 7,415 6,898 6,765 6,943 Market 54,905 53,642 51,385 53,441 Under 60 lb 20,790 20,235 19,320 20,349 60-119 lb 13,960 13,532 12,780 13,255 120-179 lb 11,170 10,985 10,590 10,831 180 + lb 8,985 8,890 8,695 9,006 Dec. 1 inventory 57,904 59,990 58,264 56,141 59,920 Breeding 7,165 7,060 6,839 6,667 6,979 Market 50,739 52,930 51,425 49,474 52,941 Under 60 lb 19,173 19,556 18,881 18,439 19,922 60-119 lb 12,659 13,087 12,808 12,221 13,028 120-179 lb 10,212 10,941 10,702 10,291 10,884 180 + lb 8,695 9,346 9,034 8,522 9,107 Sows farrowing Dec.-Feb. 1/ 2,885 2,886 2,757 2,669 2,914 March-May 3,390 3,170 2,955 2,941 3,043 Dec.-May 1/ 6,275 6,056 5,712 5,610 5,957 June-August 3,107 2,976 2,758 2,899 Sept.-Nov. 2,997 2,815 2,717 2,931 June-Nov. 6,104 5,791 5,475 5,830 Pig crop Dec.-Feb. 1/ 23,368 23,851 23,160 22,990 March-May 27,984 26,373 25,040 25,460 Dec.-May 1/ 51,352 50,224 48,200 48,450 June-August 25,547 24,813 23,597 25,220 Sept.-Nov. 24,517 23,479 23,159 25,302 June-Nov. 50,064 48,292 46,756 50,522 Pigs per litter Dec.-Feb. 1/ 8.10 8.27 8.40 8.61 March-May 8.26 8.32 8.47 8.66 Dec.-May 1/ 8.18 8.29 8.44 8.64 June-August 8.22 8.34 8.56 8.70 Sept.-Nov. 8.18 8.34 8.52 8.63 June-Nov. 8.20 8.34 8.54 8.67 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ December preceding year. 2/ Intentions. Hog breeding herd changes, United States ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Inventory change: December 1 breeding 1/ 7,165 7,060 6,839 6,667 6,979 December-February Sow slaughter 919 1,010 904 737 Stag/boar slaughter 205 233 179 149 Gilts/boars added 1,169 1,181 1,009 1057 % of inventory 16.3% 16.7% 14.8% 15.9% March 1 breeding 7,210 6,998 6,765 6838 March-May Sow slaughter 914 907 955 747 Stag/boar slaughter 243 235 188 155 Gilts/boars added 1,512 1,324 1,238 1009 % of inventory 21.0% 18.9% 18.3% 14.8% June 1 breeding 7,565 7,180 6,860 6945 June-August Sow slaughter 1,030 1,015 875 783 Stag/boar slaughter 242 232 168 148 Gilts/boars added 1,122 965 948 929 % of inventory 14.8% 13.4% 13.8% 13.4% September 1 breeding 7,415 6,898 6,765 6943 September-November Sow slaughter 1,093 924 801 827 Stag/boar slaughter 225 204 158 139 Gilts/boars added 963 1,069 861 1002 % of inventory 13.0% 15.5% 12.7% 14.4% Sows entering breeding December-February 1/ Sows farrowing 2,885 2,886 2,757 2,669 2,914 2/ Sow slaughter 919 1,010 904 737 % of inventory 31.9% 35.0% 32.8% 27.6% Sows added 1,424 1,294 1,102 1009 % of inventory 42.0% 40.8% 37.3% 34.3% March-May Sows farrowing 3,390 3,170 2,955 2941 3043 2/ Sow slaughter 914 907 955 747 % of inventory 27.0% 28.6% 32.3% 25.4% Sows added 631 713 758 705 % of inventory 20.3% 24.0% 27.5% 24.3% June-August Sows farrowing 3,107 2,976 2,758 2899 Sow slaughter 1,030 1,015 875 783 % of inventory 33.2% 34.1% 31.7% 27.0% Sows added 920 854 834 815 % of inventory 30.7% 30.3% 30.7% 27.8% September-November Sows farrowing 2,997 2,815 2,717 2931 Sow slaughter 1,093 924 801 827 % of inventory 36.5% 32.8% 29.5% 28.2% Sows added 982 866 753 810 % of inventory 34.0% 31.4% 28.2% 27.8% ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ December preceding year. 2/ Estimate. Farrow-to-finish hog production costs and returns, 1,600 head annual sales, North Central Region 1/ Item Jan-97 Feb-97 Mar-97 Apr-97 May-97 Jun-97 Cash receipts: 2/ 50.88 50.11 45.50 51.11 55.15 55.04 Market hogs (94.25 lb) 3.01 3.05 2.91 2.93 3.18 3.01 Cull sows (5.75 lb) 53.89 53.16 48.41 54.04 58.33 58.05 Total Cash expenses: Feed-- 24.33 21.41 18.47 18.25 18.17 18.81 Corn (345.6 lb) 11.20 10.73 10.76 10.65 10.91 10.83 Soybean meal (70.6 lb) 3.18 3.21 3.21 3.21 3.19 3.19 Mixing concentrates (14.3 lb) 38.71 35.35 32.44 32.11 32.27 32.83 Total feed Other-- Veterinary and medicine 3/ 1.31 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.32 1.32 Fuel, lube, and electricity 1.52 1.61 1.68 1.69 1.66 1.60 Mach. and building repairs 1.47 1.48 1.50 1.49 1.50 1.50 Hired labor 4/ 2.71 2.84 2.82 2.81 2.83 2.85 Miscellaneous 2.37 2.38 2.38 2.39 2.41 2.41 Total variable expenses 48.09 44.98 42.15 41.82 41.99 42.51 General farm overhead 1.47 1.47 1.47 1.48 1.49 1.49 Taxes and insurance 0.82 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.88 0.90 Interest 2.36 2.36 2.36 2.36 2.36 2.42 Total fixed expenses 4.64 4.75 4.75 4.76 4.72 4.81 Total cash expenses 5/ 52.73 49.73 46.90 46.58 46.71 47.32 Receipts less cash expenses 1.16 3.43 1.51 7.46 11.62 10.73 Capital replacement 10.83 11.42 10.83 10.83 10.89 10.96 Receipts less cash expenses 63.56 61.15 57.73 57.41 57.60 58.28 and replacement -9.67 -7.99 -9.32 -3.37 0.73 -0.23 1/The feed rations and expense items do not not necessarily coincide with the experience of individual hog operations. 2/ Based on 94.25 lb of barrows and gilts liveweight and 5.75 lb of sows per cwt sold. 3/ Includes costs of feed medication. 4/ Based on .204 hours per cwt of liveweight hog marketed. 5/ Does not include a charge for family or operator labor. Item Jul-97 Aug-97 Sep-97 Oct-97 Nov-97 Dec-97 Cash receipts: 2/ 56.42 52.88 48.04 45.19 43.07 40.57 Market hogs (94.25 lb) 3.00 2.90 2.62 2.48 2.29 2.29 Cull sows (5.75 lb) 59.42 55.78 50.66 47.67 45.36 42.86 Total Cash expenses: Feed-- 18.55 17.90 16.35 15.57 14.97 14.55 Corn (345.6 lb) 11.43 11.46 11.73 12.25 12.14 11.10 Soybean meal (70.6 lb) 3.12 3.21 3.21 3.21 3.21 3.20 Mixing concentrates (14.3 lb) 33.10 32.57 31.29 31.03 30.32 28.85 Total feed Other-- Veterinary and medicine 3/ 1.29 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.32 Fuel, lube, and electricity 1.62 1.61 1.66 1.66 1.67 1.70 Mach. and building repairs 1.50 1.50 1.51 1.50 1.49 1.49 Hired labor 4/ 2.85 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.93 Miscellaneous 2.41 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 2.40 Total variable expenses 42.76 42.32 41.08 40.83 40.11 38.69 General farm overhead 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.49 Taxes and insurance 0.90 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.92 0.90 Interest 2.42 2.42 2.42 2.36 2.36 2.38 Total fixed expenses 4.81 4.80 4.80 4.74 4.77 4.77 Total cash expenses 5/ 47.57 47.12 45.88 45.57 44.88 43.46 Receipts less cash expenses 11.85 8.66 4.78 2.10 0.48 -0.60 Capital replacement 10.96 11.87 11.61 11.61 11.61 11.64 Receipts less cash expenses 58.53 58.99 57.49 57.18 56.49 55.10 and replacement 0.89 -3.21 -6.83 -9.51 -11.13 -12.24 1/The feed rations and expense items do not necessarily coincide with the experience of individual hog operations. 2/ Based on 94.25 lb of barrows and gilts liveweight and 5.75 lb of sows per cwt sold. 3/ Includes costs of feed medication. 4/ Based on .204 hours per cwt of liveweight hog marketed. 5/ Does not include a charge for family or operator labor. Pork: Retail, wholesale, and farm values, spreads, and farmers' share Gross Year Retail Wholesale farm By-product Net farm price 1/ value 2/ value3/ allowance value 5/ --------------------------- Cents per pound 1992 198.0 98.9 72.0 4.2 67.8 1993 197.6 102.9 77.3 4.8 72.5 1994 198.1 98.9 67.4 4.5 62.9 1995 194.8 98.8 71.6 4.9 66.7 1996 220.9 117.2 90.7 6.1 84.6 I 201.1 102.1 71.9 4.8 67.1 II 208.2 105.7 79.0 4.9 74.1 III 209.7 108.3 82.9 5.2 77.7 IV 203.8 104.1 75.2 4.9 70.3 1997 231.5 117.1 87.1 6.0 81.1 Jan. 232.7 119.6 90.6 6.2 84.4 Feb. 231.3 119.6 90.3 6.2 84.1 Mar. 228.9 118.8 89.3 6.1 83.2 I 231.0 119.3 90.1 6.2 83.9 Apr. 226.5 120.8 92.7 5.9 86.8 May 229.0 124.6 97.7 6.2 91.5 June 233.7 123.0 97.5 6.3 91.2 II 229.7 122.8 96.0 6.2 89.8 July 232.7 123.4 100.0 6.7 93.3 Aug. 236.0 123.3 91.6 6.5 85.1 Sept. 234.7 117.4 84.2 5.9 78.3 III 234.5 121.4 91.9 6.3 85.6 Oct. 234.9 110.5 78.9 5.7 73.2 Nov. 231.3 107.9 75.3 5.4 69.9 Dec. 226.8 101.5 67.0 4.9 62.1 Farm retail spread Year Wholesale Farm- Farmers' Total retail Wholesale share 6/ --------------------------- Percent 1992 130.2 99.1 31.1 34 1993 125.1 94.7 30.4 37 1994 135.2 99.2 36.0 32 1995 128.1 96.0 32.1 34 1996 136.3 103.7 32.6 38 I 134.0 99.0 35.0 33 II 134.1 102.5 31.6 36 III 132.0 101.4 30.6 37 IV 133.5 99.8 33.8 34 1997 150.4 114.4 36.0 35 Jan. 148.3 113.1 35.2 36 Feb. 148.3 112.8 35.6 36 Mar. 149.0 113.4 35.6 36 I 148.5 113.1 35.5 36 Apr. 139.7 105.7 34.0 38 May 137.5 104.4 33.1 40 June 142.5 110.7 31.8 39 II 139.9 106.9 33.0 39 July 139.4 109.3 30.1 40 Aug. 150.9 112.7 38.2 36 Sept. 156.4 117.3 39.1 33 III 148.9 113.1 35.8 37 Oct. 161.7 124.4 37.3 31 Nov. 161.4 123.4 38.0 30 Dec. 164.7 125.3 39.4 27 1/ Estimated weighted-average of BLS prices of retail cuts from pork carcass. 2/ Value of wholesale quantity equivalent to 1 lb of retail cuts. A wholesale-carcass equivalent of 1.06 is used. 3/ Market values to producer for 1.7 lb of live animal equivalent to 1 lb of retail cuts. 4/ Portion of gross farm value attributable to edible and inedible by- products. 5/ Gross farm value minus by-product allowance. 6/ Percent net farm value is of retail price. Commercial hog slaughter, production, and prices 1/ Slt'r hog Barrows Boars & Dress- Comm'l Iowa/ Year & gilts Sows Stags Total wt. prod. S. Minn --------- 1,000 hd. --------- lb. 1,000 lb $/cwt 1993 I 21935 903 219 23057 182 4204 44.83 II 21516 910 235 22661 183 4151 47.59 III 21535 1017 225 22777 182 4140 48.05 IV 23401 966 207 24574 185 4535 43.93 Year 88387 3796 886 93069 183 17030 46.10 1994 I 21600 916 226 22742 184 4181 45.70 II 21806 920 240 22966 185 4239 42.90 III 22407 1035 232 23674 183 4326 40.50 IV 24945 1140 230 26315 187 4912 31.03 Year 90758 4011 928 95697 185 17658 40.03 1995 I 23038 946 241 24225 185 4488 38.56 II 22498 922 223 23643 186 4393 38.91 III 22058 981 222 23261 182 4241 48.75 IV 24089 911 197 25197 186 4689 45.50 Year 91683 3760 883 96326 185 17811 42.93 1996 I 22561 912 178 23651 186 4389 46.23 II 21087 933 181 22201 185 4104 54.82 III 21682 860 169 22711 182 4143 57.75 IV 22891 791 151 23833 187 4449 54.75 Year 88221 3496 679 92396 185 17085 53.39 1997 I 21440 722 152 22314 188 4192 51.06 II 20915 765 152 21832 187 4091 56.41 III 21736 794 149 22679 185 4194 54.45 IV 2/ 25125 190 4775 42-45 Year 91950 188 17252 50-53 1998 I 3/ 24000 190 4550 37-39 II 3/ 21832 188 4525 39-41 III 3/ 25000 186 4650 41-45 IV 3/ 26225 189 4950 36-40 Year 3/ 97057 192 18675 38-41 1/ Classes estimated. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Forecast. U.S. Hog & Pork Trade 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Pork Imports Canada 485257 545586 508773 453182 437058 403938 Denmark 368484 345292 326509 198391 273244 245956 Poland 121851 125342 128619 112789 66614 21640 Hungary 48486 50011 44195 26159 33117 39028 Netherlands 12289 17350 22591 15259 15650 17697 Other 85221 111546 106545 89870 72198 46505 Total 1121588 1195126 1137231 895650 897882 774765 Pork Exports Japan 39562 61731 121209 148010 126046 124067 Canada 10099 9436 8844 13016 22796 27024 Mexico 2262 7098 34897 62646 39927 83572 Caribbean 14297 12334 10800 16797 16149 14241 Other 19445 18714 19481 27956 38824 40885 Total 85665 109312 195231 268425 243742 289789 Hog Imports Canada 503728 446056 835125 1073164 886277 1054236 Under 110 lb 169738 204184 226303 Total 503728 446056 835949 1073646 890252 1057685 Hog Exports Total 12993 7409 91292 93343 56652 267853 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Pork Imports Canada 391233 402275 421768 453925 437397 Denmark 168908 233772 244545 144516 122211 Poland 13192 13834 11581 11984 10525 Hungary 21323 29933 18210 10608 8761 Netherlands 16894 22771 16769 10671 8479 Other 33955 37613 30896 32258 31511 Total 645505 740197 743769 663963 618884 Pork Exports Japan 215172 221417 239956 365274 500518 Canada 32860 36364 52902 57771 94374 Mexico 113524 98129 160425 68219 69820 Caribbean 29146 9764 9145 11996 11934 Other 29163 80760 86111 284203 293259 Total 419865 446433 548540 787464 969905 Hog Imports Canada 669769 837832 914755 1747160 2778741 Under 110 lb 226896 280813 401981 651096 766974 Total 674469 840050 921274 1750138 2779175 Hog Exports Total 105631 40636 136148 16059 55883 Federally inspected hog slaughter ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Week Hogs % Chg Barrows/gilts % Chg Sows % Chg ended 1996 1997 97/95 1996 1997 97/96 1996 1997 97/96 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 hd 1,000 hd % 1,000 hd % Jan. 4 1618 1482 1549 1553 1430 66 55 44 -21 11 1891 1662 1866 1805 1590 80 72 59 -18 18 1765 1682 1721 1679 1616 82 72 56 -22 25 1859 1787 1699 1777 1717 74 69 57 -17 Feb. 1 1686 1730 1672 1613 1662 62 62 56 -10 8 1779 1713 1693 1698 1644 71 68 56 -17 15 1794 1713 1724 1711 1642 69 70 58 -17 22 1808 1693 1719 1723 1627 70 71 54 -24 Mar. 1 1823 1731 1783 1737 1667 74 73 54 -26 8 1758 1778 1803 1672 1708 68 73 57 -22 15 1846 1768 1817 1761 1701 71 71 56 -21 22 1780 1784 1799 1693 1715 72 71 57 -20 29 1776 1824 1753 1694 1755 66 69 56 -18 Apr. 5 1796 1734 1732 1707 1668 68 73 54 -25 12 1777 1716 1713 1689 1644 61 73 59 -20 19 1840 1764 1742 1749 1693 66 76 59 -23 26 1777 1636 1773 1688 1565 67 75 58 -22 May. 3 1793 1653 1779 1699 1587 70 79 54 -32 10 1692 1615 1789 1603 1546 69 74 57 -22 17 1691 1625 1690 1609 1558 68 70 56 -19 24 1611 1615 1686 1534 1548 68 64 56 -12 31 1439 1422 1526 1369 1360 62 58 53 -10 June 7 1568 1636 1667 1482 1563 78 72 61 -15 14 1629 1653 1630 1546 1581 75 71 61 -14 21 1582 1623 1615 1504 1553 71 66 60 -8 28 1573 1647 1637 1494 1576 79 66 60 -9 July 5 1332 1316 1391 1272 1259 62 51 48 -4 12 1616 1634 1595 1532 1564 74 70 59 -16 19 1663 1640 1605 1577 1569 80 72 61 -16 26 1598 1613 1585 1520 1543 79 66 59 -9 Aug. 2 1629 1586 1637 1549 1515 78 68 58 -14 9 1636 1647 1610 1559 1578 77 65 58 -11 16 1718 1702 1689 1648 1632 73 58 59 1 23 1746 1726 1727 1668 1654 74 65 61 -6 30 1757 1802 1701 1677 1728 75 67 63 -7 Sept. 6 1525 1602 1570 1460 1541 65 54 51 -6 13 1943 1858 1804 1864 1782 76 66 64 -2 20 1827 1874 1801 1749 1798 71 66 65 -2 27 1885 1857 1797 1808 1784 75 64 61 -5 Oct. 4 1838 1813 1814 1760 1741 70 63 63 -1 11 1828 1896 1751 1757 1829 67 59 57 -3 18 1831 1892 1831 1762 1819 63 58 61 5 25 1836 1866 1908 1765 1795 70 60 62 3 Nov. 1 1845 1957 1912 1772 1880 74 63 67 5 8 1840 1927 1894 1767 1848 72 60 68 13 15 1770 1899 1917 1698 1819 77 61 69 13 22 1898 1980 1654 1822 1897 57 64 73 13 29 1568 1678 1906 1512 1615 73 46 53 15 Dec. 6 1814 1943 1823 1734 1863 74 67 69 2 13 1814 1912 1808 1736 1833 69 67 69 3 20 1759 2062 1752 1689 1980 71 59 70 19 27 1389 1457 1607 1347 1411 56 36 39 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Corresponding dates to 1997: 1995, Jan. 7; 1996, Jan. 6. ----------------------------------------------------- Week Sows % Change Stags/Boars % Change ended 1996 1997 Prev.yr 1996 1997 Prev. yr. ----------------------------------------------------- Jan. 4 55 44 -21 10 9 -17 11 72 59 -18 14 12 -12 18 72 56 -22 14 10 -29 25 69 57 -17 14 13 -7 Feb. 1 62 56 -10 12 11 -3 8 68 56 -17 13 13 -2 15 70 58 -17 14 13 -4 22 71 54 -24 15 12 -15 Mar. 1 73 54 -26 14 11 -22 8 73 57 -22 13 13 -1 15 71 56 -21 14 11 -20 22 71 57 -20 15 12 -23 29 69 56 -18 14 12 -11 Apr. 5 73 54 -25 16 11 -30 12 73 59 -20 15 13 -13 19 76 59 -23 14 13 -13 26 75 58 -22 14 13 -10 May. 3 79 54 -32 15 12 -23 10 74 57 -22 15 12 -21 17 70 56 -19 13 11 -16 24 64 56 -12 12 11 -13 31 58 53 -10 12 10 -19 June 7 72 61 -15 14 12 -15 14 71 61 -14 13 11 -19 21 66 60 -8 12 10 -19 28 66 60 -9 13 11 -13 July 5 51 48 -4 10 9 -17 12 70 59 -16 14 11 -18 19 72 61 -16 13 11 -17 26 66 59 -9 12 11 -7 Aug. 2 68 58 -14 13 12 -1 9 65 58 -11 12 12 -4 16 58 59 1 12 12 -1 23 65 61 -6 13 12 -13 30 67 63 -7 14 11 -18 Sept. 6 54 51 -6 11 10 -8 13 66 64 -2 13 12 -9 20 66 65 -2 13 11 -12 27 64 61 -5 13 12 -12 Oct. 4 63 63 -1 15 9 -36 11 59 57 -3 13 10 -23 18 58 61 5 12 11 -2 25 60 62 3 11 9 -19 Nov. 1 63 67 5 11 11 1 8 60 68 13 12 11 -7 15 61 69 13 11 11 3 22 64 73 13 12 11 -12 29 46 53 15 10 9 -5 Dec. 6 67 69 2 14 11 -17 13 67 69 3 12 11 -11 20 59 70 19 11 12 16 27 36 39 10 6 7 14 ------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Corresponding dates to 1997: 1995, Jan. 7; 1996, Jan. 6. Selected price and slaughter statistics for meat animals and meat ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Item Jul-97 Aug-97 Sep-97 Oct-97 Nov-97 Dec-97 5/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Hog prices: Barrows and gilts 230-250 lb Iowa/S. Minn. No. 1-3 58.66 54.7 49.99 46.62 44.57 39.85 Sioux City 58.89 54.17 49.45 46.12 44.86 40.33 6 markets 1/ 58.8 54.06 49.42 46.17 44.4 40.5 Sows: 6 markets 1/ 47.7 46.06 41.48 39.32 36.69 34.08 Feeder pigs: No. 1 & 2, So. Mo., 40-50 lb (per hd.) Slaughter Steers: Choice, 1100-1300 lb Nebraska direct 64.77 65.96 66.22 67.08 67.21 65.53 Farm prices: Hogs 58.9 55.3 50.4 47.3 45.1 42.5 Beef cattle 62.8 63.9 63.6 63.3 63.3 63.2 Meat prices: Wholesale Central U.S. markets Pork cut-out, #2 2/ 78.21 76.45 70.84 66.12 65.49 57.76 Pork loins 14-18 lb 122.53 119.28 112.07 99.68 85.99 79.44 Pork bellies 12-14 lb 86.7 85.43 72.25 57.97 53.77 47.52 Hams, skinned 17-20 lb 71.00 69.33 68.33 69.6 87.94 65.79 20-26 lb 68.37 64.68 62.7 59.89 64.29 55.66 Boxed beef cut-out Choice, 1-3 700-850 lb 102.43 104.49 102.58 102.86 103.74 100.43 Retail prices Pork 232.7 236 234.7 234.9 231.3 226.8 Bacon, sliced 264 264 264 264 264 264 Chops, center cut 344 344 344 344 344 344 Ham, rump or shank 196 196 196 196 196 196 Sirloin roast 262 262 262 262 262 262 Picnic, smoked 131 131 131 131 131 131 Sausage, fresh 215 215 215 215 215 215 Beef, Choice 279.2 281 283 279 278 280.9 Composite broiler 153.4 149.5 152.7 148.8 151.7 148.2 Price indexes: (BLS) All meats 144.6 145.5 145.6 145.2 144.6 143.4 Beef and veal 136.5 137 137.2 137.1 137 136.9 Pork 157.5 158.6 158.9 157.4 155.5 153 Poultry 157.9 155.6 156.8 155.6 157.4 155.2 Commercial: 4/ Slaughter Hogs 7,309 7,350 8,020 8,020 8,780 7,743 Barrows and gilts 6,989 7,045 7,702 7,702 8,443 7,432 Sows 269 255 270 270 289 268 Stags and boars 51 50 48 48 48 43 Cattle 3,183 3,110 2,971 2,971 3,228 2,765 Production Pork 1,353 1,352 1,489 1,489 1,653 1,473 Beef 2,257 2,223 2,127 2,127 2,302 1,936 Veal 27 25 28 28 28 24 Lamb and mutton 20 19 21 21 22 20 Cold storage stocks: 5/ Total pork 398.286 387.734 371.717 347.414 354.235 333.489 Hams 99.714 113.205 113.485 101.278 88.789 61.345 Pork belly 52.274 33.657 18.346 11.154 14.408 25.405 Ribs 30.858 29.902 23.445 31.24 39.37 47.82 Trim & other 133.92 124.126 126.169 113.856 118.179 114.703 Federal inspected: Hog weights live wt 253 252 254 254 257 261 dressed wt 186 185 187 187 189 191 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Omaha, Sioux City, Sioux Falls, So. St. Joseph, and So. St. Paul. 2/ 175 lb. carcass 3/ Classes esimated. 4/ End of month. 5/ Preliminary. Meat supply, carcass weight 1/ ------------------------------------------------------ Production ------------------Begin- Year Commer- Total ning Im- Total cial stocks ports supply ------------------------------------------------------ Million pounds Beef: 1993 22,942 23,049 360 2,401 25,810 1994 24,278 24,386 529 2,368 27,283 1995 25,115 25,222 548 2,104 27,874 1996 I 6,303 6,340 519 508 7,367 II 6,642 6,658 461 526 7,645 III 6,390 6,406 406 555 7,367 IV 6,084 6,121 414 484 7,019 Year 25,419 25,525 519 2,073 28,117 1997 I 6,112 6,149 377 536 7,062 II 6,419 6,435 387 716 7,538 III 2/ 6,620 6,636 425 680 7,741 IV 2/ 6,150 6,187 430 535 7,152 Year 25,301 25,407 1,619 2,467 29,493 1998 I 2/ 6,050 6,087 400 680 7,167 II 2/ 6,200 6,216 375 725 7,316 Year 24,825 24,931 1,450 2,680 29,061 Pork: 1993 17,030 17,088 385 740 18,213 1994 17,658 17,696 359 743 18,798 1995 17,085 17,117 438 618 18,173 1996 I 4,389 4,397 396 144 4,937 II 4,104 4,112 413 155 4,680 III 4,143 4,151 404 154 4,709 IV 4,449 4,457 401 165 5,023 Year 17,085 17,117 396 618 18,131 1997 I 4,194 4,202 366 158 4,726 II 4,091 4,099 477 150 4,726 III 2/ 4,200 4,208 465 150 4,823 IV 2/ 4,550 4,558 425 162 5,145 Year 17,035 17,067 366 620 18,053 1998 I 2/ 4,500 4,508 400 150 5,058 II 2/ 4,500 4,508 400 150 5,058 Year 18,500 18,532 1,600 615 20,747 Veal: 1993 267 285 5 290 1994 283 293 4 297 1995 1996 I 90 94 7 101 II 87 89 7 96 III 95 97 5 102 IV 95 98 6 104 Year 367 378 7 385 1997 I 86 90 7 97 II 80 82 6 88 III 2/ 79 81 4 85 IV 2/ 75 78 6 84 Year 320 331 7 338 1998 I 2/ 65 69 7 76 II 2/ 62 64 6 70 Year 260 271 25 296 Lamb: 1993 329 337 8 53 398 1994 304 308 8 49 365 1995 264 268 11 73 352 1996 I 74 75 8 19 102 II 64 65 12 18 95 III 60 61 14 18 93 IV 66 67 11 18 96 Year 264 268 8 73 349 1997 I 66 67 9 25 101 II 65 66 11 24 101 III 2/ 59 60 17 20 97 IV 2/ 60 61 19 20 100 Year 250 254 9 89 352 1998 I 2/ 62 63 12 25 100 II 2/ 58 59 11 25 95 Year 227 231 44 92 367 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Forecast. Meat utilization, carcass and retail weight 1/ ------------------------------------------------------ Per capita Total Consumption Year Ex- Ending disap- Carcass Retail ports stocks pearance weight weight ------------------------------------------------------ Million pounds Pounds Beef: 1993 1,275 529 24,006 93.0 65.1 1994 1,611 548 25,124 96.4 67.0 1995 1,821 519 25,534 97.0 67.4 1996 I 452 461 6,454 24.4 17.0 II 544 406 6,695 25.2 17.5 III 436 414 6,517 24.5 17.0 IV 445 377 6,197 23.2 16.2 Year 1,877 377 25,863 97.4 67.7 1997 I 455 387 6,220 23.3 16.2 II 513 425 6,600 24.7 17.1 III 2/ 500 430 6,811 25.4 17.6 IV 2/ 450 400 6,302 23.4 16.3 Year 1,918 1,642 25,933 96.7 67.2 1998 I 2/ 475 375 6,317 23.4 16.3 II 2/ 540 325 6,451 23.9 16.6 Year 2,095 1,400 25,566 94.5 65.7 Pork: 1993 435 359 17,419 67.5 52.4 1994 531 438 17,829 68.4 53.1 1995 951 396 16,826 63.3 49.1 1996 I 221 413 4,303 16.3 12.6 II 313 404 3,963 14.9 11.6 III 180 401 4,128 15.5 12.0 IV 237 366 4,420 16.6 12.9 Year 951 366 16,814 63.3 49.1 1997 I 192 477 4,057 15.2 11.8 II 271 465 3,990 14.9 11.6 III 2/ 286 425 4,112 15.3 11.9 IV 2/ 315 400 4,430 16.5 12.8 Year 1,064 400 16,589 61.9 48.0 1998 I 2/ 256 400 4,402 16.3 12.7 II 2/ 286 425 4,347 16.1 12.5 Year 1,150 1,580 18,017 66.6 51.7 Veal: 1993 4 286 1.1 0.9 1994 7 290 1.2 0.8 1995 1996 I 7 94 0.4 0.3 II 5 91 0.3 0.3 III 6 96 0.4 0.3 IV 7 97 0.4 0.3 Year 7 378 1.4 1.2 1997 I 6 91 0.3 0.3 II 4 84 0.3 0.3 III 2/ 6 79 0.3 0.2 IV 2/ 7 77 0.3 0.2 Year 7 331 1.2 1.0 1998 I 2/ 6 70 0.3 0.2 II 2/ 6 64 0.2 0.2 Year 24 272 1.0 0.8 Lamb: 1993 8 8 381 1.5 1.3 1994 9 11 345 1.3 1.2 1995 6 8 338 1.3 1.1 1996 I 2 12 88 0.3 0.3 II 1 14 80 0.3 0.3 III 1 11 81 0.3 0.3 IV 2 9 85 0.3 0.3 Year 6 9 334 1.3 1.1 1997 I 2 11 88 0.3 0.3 II 1 17 83 0.3 0.3 III 2/ 2 19 76 0.3 0.3 IV 2/ 2 12 86 0.3 0.3 Year 7 12 333 1.2 1.1 1998 I 2/ 2 11 87 0.3 0.3 II 2/ 2 12 81 0.3 0.3 Year 8 43 316 1.2 1.0 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Forecast. PRODUCTION INDICATORS Dec-96 Oct-97 Nov-97 Dec-97 Cattle: On feed - 7 States, 1,000+ Hd 9,003 8,558 9,390 9,718 Net placements 1,355 2,377 1,757 NA Marketings 1,415 1,545 1,429 NA Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 573,495 566,473 550,530 593,985 Chicks hatched (000)/2 695,011 683,061 648,120 720,000 Hatching egg layers/1 50,070 52,498 52,609 53,161 Pullets placed (000) 5,947 6,254 6,347 NA Hvy-type hen slaughter 4,129 5,672 3,926 5,000 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) /1 33,667 31,878 30,964 32,074 Poults placed (000) 27,119 24,587 23,281 25,711 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil. doz.)/2 475 468 463 485 Table egg layers, (000)/1 250,645 249,672 251,476 255,555 Table eggs/100 layers/1 73.6 71.7 72.6 73.4 Chicks hatched (000) 33,017 35,175 27,803 35,000 Lt.-type hen slaughter 8,072 8,656 7,162 9,500 ESTIMATED RETURNS 1,998 Jan-97 Nov-97 Dec-97 Jan-98 /* Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 62.84 69.03 69.12 68.41 Selling price 65.07 67.66 65.91 64.50 Net margin 2.23 -1.37 -3.21 -3.91 N. Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price /3 39.18 48.94 43.46 43.64 Selling price 53.42 44.57 39.65 35.00 Net margin 14.24 -4.37 -3.81 -8.64 Broiler Wholesale cost 52.24 52.93 51.57 52.15 Wholesale price 61.99 54.62 52.25 55.00 Net margin 9.75 1.69 0.68 2.85 Turkey Wholesale cost 67.82 68.35 68.50 66.07 Wholesale price 59.00 68.64 62.34 57.00 Net margin -8.82 0.29 -6.16 -9.07 Egg Wholesale cost 70.88 70.45 71.16 69.81 Wholesale price 89.62 99.53 93.92 85.00 Net margin 18.74 29.08 22.76 15.19 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* estimate LIVESTOCK PRICES Jan-97 Nov-97 Dec-97 Jan-98 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 65.07 67.66 65.91 64.50 Nebraska Direct 65.51 67.21 65.53 64.00 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 28.15 33.57 35.91 38.90 Utility boning 27.77 32.20 34.50 37.40 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 75.08 89.18 90.72 87.00 600-650 lb. 70.92 80.62 83.28 80.50 750-800 lb. 69.72 79.11 81.00 77.00 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 64.68 78.24 80.64 77.00 700-750 lb. 65.50 73.12 74.07 70.00 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 53.09 44.40 40.50 35.25 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 53.42 44.57 39.85 35.00 Sows 6 Markets 48.29 36.69 34.08 29.00 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) NA NA NA NA Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 94.63 80.33 83.52 82.50 Ewes, Good 50.06 49.67 48.42 48.00 Feeder lambs, Choice 109.00 94.00 97.17 93.50 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES Jan-97 Nov-97 Dec-97 Jan-98 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 2.62 2.70 2.60 2.58 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 4.52 3.76 3.64 3.52 $/ton SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 249.22 245.34 225.52 202.00 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 104.00 108.00 106.00 Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 97.90 101.00 97.70 /* Estimates WHOLESALE PRICES Jan-97 Nov-97 Dec-97 Jan-98 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 101.90 104.63 101.50 101.90 Choice 1-3 700-850# 100.79 103.74 100.43 100.79 Select 1-3 700-850# 95.47 94.66 93.39 95.47 Cutter Cow 53.73 59.64 62.13 53.73 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 84.86 83.91 90.12 84.86 Imported Bnls beef, 90% frz 84.85 90.06 91.30 84.85 Hide & offal value 9.56 8.78 8.23 9.56 Vealers, Choice, 150-250# 153.58 167.44 166.70 153.58 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, #2 71.33 65.49 57.76 71.33 Loins, 14-18 lb. 112.50 85.99 79.44 112.50 Bellies, 12-14 lb. 72.04 53.77 47.52 72.04 Hams, 20-26 lb. 66.49 64.29 55.66 66.49 Trimmings, 72% fresh 58.95 50.78 45.24 58.95 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. down, Choice 182.10 168.25 166.25 182.10 55-65 lb., Choice 182.10 166.25 164.25 182.10 Broilers 12 City Avg. 61.99 54.62 52.25 55.00 Georgia dock 63.05 56.70 54.58 54.00 Northeast Breast, boneless 169.07 155.41 144.73 144.00 Breast, Ribs on 84.72 77.13 69.09 69.00 Legs, whole 52.27 46.96 45.70 45.00 Leg quarters 33.02 31.35 29.04 28.00 Turkey Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 58.76 69.15 62.73 57.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 59.71 70.07 62.18 57.00 Drumsticks 34.87 31.06 24.88 24.00 Wings, full cut 43.15 41.64 35.81 32.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 89.62 99.53 93.92 85.00 New York 86.30 97.44 90.26 83.00 /* Estimate RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Dec-96 Oct-97 Nov-97 Dec-97 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 287.3 279.0 278.0 280.9 Beef - All Fresh 256.3 254.0 253.5 255.3 Ground Beef 142.4 140.6 140.9 139.2 Rib roast 509.1 523.2 519.0 520.7 T-bone steak 587.4 591.5 589.1 607.3 Pork 231.2 234.9 231.3 226.8 Bacon 264.2 273.0 266.5 260.7 Chops 344.1 348.7 347.7 339.4 Picnic 131.3 127.4 127.8 128.5 Chicken - Composite 154.2 148.8 151.7 148.2 Whole, fresh 100.2 98.4 101.8 100.1 Breast - bone in 209.3 198.2 203.5 198.7 Leg quarter 125.6 123.6 124.6 121.7 Turkey; whole frozen 102.0 106.2 97.6 98.2 Eggs, Grade A, Large 130.8 101.8 109.0 117.2 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 158.6 161.6 161.5 161.3 All food 156.3 158.2 158.5 158.7 All meat 144.4 145.2 144.6 143.4 Beef & veal 137.8 137.1 137.0 136.9 Pork 155.4 157.4 155.5 153.0 Poultry 157.8 155.6 157.4 155.2 Dairy Products 148.6 145.7 147.0 147.8 Fluid milk & cream 149.9 145.3 147.0 147.0 Manufactured products 147.9 146.8 147.6 149.3 Price Spreads Cents/lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 26.6 20.5 20.7 19.1 Wholesale to retail 122.0 120.3 117.8 125.3 Farmers share (%) 48.0 50.0 50.0 49.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 39.1 37.3 38.0 39.4 Wholesale to retail 105.0 124.4 123.4 125.3 Farmers share (%) 38.0 31.0 30.0 27.0 Poultry and eggs Wholesale to retail Broilers 92.1 92.3 95.6 95.5 Retail to consumer Turkey 26.6 31.9 20.0 26.9 Eggs 25.4 23.3 10.5 24.3 MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - Jan-97 Jan-98 Nov-97 Dec-97 Jan-98 /* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 25,419 25,404 1,936 2,028 2,188 Veal 367 324 24 26 25 Pork 17,085 17,248 1,473 1,645 1,705 Lamb 264 257 20 23 20 Total red meat 43,135 43,233 3,453 3,722 3,938 Broilers 26,336 27,233 2,009 2,300 2,325 Other chicken 487 507 34 43 44 Turkeys 5,466 5,450 457 430 420 Total poultry 32,289 33,190 2,499 2,773 2,789 Total meat & poultry 75,424 76,423 5,952 6,495 6,727 Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 36,583 36,356 2,765 2,886 3,098 Steers 17,823 17,640 1,446 1,262 1,493 Heifers 10,758 11,616 1,093 865 976 Beef Cows 4,165 3,526 349 333 297 Dairy Cows 3,109 2,953 276 252 282 Bulls and stags 728 707 64 53 50 Calves 1,768 1,576 125 146 137 Sheep 4,184 3,913 310 351 306 Hogs 92,394 91,963 7,743 8,615 8,795 Barrows & gilts 88,221 87,668 8,443 7,432 8,440 Sows 3,496 3,108 289 268 305 Broilers 7,546,250 7,690,781 559,631 640,000 655,000 Turkeys 293,291 289,561 24,622 23,000 21,500 Jan-97 Oct-97 Nov-97 Dec-97 Jan-98 /* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 692 721 707 711 715 Calves 210 205 190 184 182 Sheep 65 66 66 68 67 Hogs 189 189 191 191 192 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 284.9 349.0 351.6 378.5 NA Pork 313.8 347.4 354.2 333.5 NA Bellies 37.9 11.2 14.4 25.4 NA Hams 33.5 101.3 88.8 61.3 NA Total chicken 647.0 558.0 587.3 612.5 NA Turkey 328.0 771.5 736.6 431.6 NA Frozen eggs 10.2 10.9 10.9 10.2 NA /* Estimates U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Sep-97 Oct-97 Jan - Jan - Oct-96 Oct-97 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 63,361 44,285 453,552 552,463 New Zealand 27,339 22,765 450,954 519,762 Canada 59,755 65,991 487,708 578,158 Brazil 6,621 7,042 75,064 79,403 Argentina 8,382 11,253 132,342 113,126 Central America 11,650 7,480 90,315 78,370 Other 5,090 3,184 63,761 68,317 Total 182,197 161,999 1,753,698 1,989,599 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 94,633 90,304 885,548 874,689 Canada 21,781 22,569 245,650 236,003 Mexico 30,499 34,068 135,344 248,547 Korea, Rep. 25,413 25,716 167,840 223,912 Caribbean 790 1,476 9,963 10,558 Other 23,202 19,564 140,708 167,752 Total 196,318 193,697 1,585,053 1,761,461 Cattle Imports Mexico 26,681 72,261 246,459 436,512 Canada 145,505 141,029 1,352,930 1,195,287 Over 700 lbs. 126,593 119,850 1,235,241 1,045,553 500-700 lbs. 9,197 11,433 65,159 94,655 Total 172,186 213,401 1,599,430 1,631,928 Cattle Exports Mexico 22,130 26,853 90,387 197,614 Canada 3,244 3,290 30,116 30,784 Total 25,828 31,053 137,865 233,518 Lamb Imports Australia 2,075 2,484 21,448 26,934 New Zealand 1,536 2,017 20,805 22,972 Total 3,670 4,609 42,560 50,708 Mutton Imports 1,080 1,528 17,800 19,258 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Customs Service Product wt., metric tons YTD imports under WTO 12/31/96 12/31/97 % Chg Canada 227,693 265,112 16.4 TRQ Countries 402,053 459,601 14.3 Australia 182,881 213,877 16.9 New Zealand 162,939 190,078 16.7 /* 1996 data includes Uruguay /* 1997 data includes Uruguay and Argentina ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Sep-97 Oct-97 Jan - Jan - Oct-96 Oct-97 Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lb. Canada 39,660 41,479 359,682 358,520 Denmark 9,764 8,814 102,925 104,089 Poland 1,050 1,665 8,493 11,567 Hungary 543 873 7,286 7,654 Netherlands 977 930 7,450 6,593 Other 3,288 4,386 25,581 34,197 Total 55,281 58,146 511,418 522,621 Pork Exports Japan 36,101 41,170 442,520 382,078 Canada 10,070 11,066 78,448 100,858 Mexico 8,255 9,320 53,048 68,737 Caribbean 1,107 1,323 8,960 9,534 Other 33,201 47,527 226,500 289,022 Total 88,735 110,406 809,476 850,228 Hog Imports Head Canada 248,186 287,815 2,305,406 2,534,922 Under 110 lb 87,849 93,076 655,981 833,770 Total 248,186 287,903 2,305,640 2,536,178 Hog Exports Total 3,313 9,968 44,663 45,874 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 15,583 21,865 213,922 168,997 Mexico 21,638 23,932 179,331 205,246 Hong Kong 74,611 82,389 814,739 725,984 Singapore 3,685 3,478 43,447 29,770 Canada 11,031 10,355 60,783 99,916 Former USSR 159,068 195,196 1,514,706 1,700,602 Total 391,484 449,590 3,671,976 3,860,521 Turkey Exports Mexico 17,376 17,697 125,165 151,496 S. Korea 2,668 3,325 19,080 23,367 Hong Kong 14,818 9,683 20,968 104,309 Total 64,878 53,766 355,290 492,394 Shell thousand dz. Egg Exports 9,459 11,495 95,402 81,990 MILK & DAIRY PRODUCTS Dec-96 Oct-97 Nov-97 Dec-97 Milk production Production - 21 States, Mil. lb 11,013 10,986 10,602 11,112 Milk cow number - 21 States, Thou 7,765 7,731 7,721 7,719 Milk per cow - 21 States, Lb 1,418 1,421 1,373 1,440 Production - U.S., Mil. lb 12,916 12,845 12,391 12,983 Milk prices: Dol./cwt All milk 14.30 14.00 14.60 14.50 Milk for fluid use 14.40 14.00 14.60 14.60 Manuf. grade milk 11.80 13.20 13.60 13.40 Minn-Wisc (3.5% fat) 11.34 12.83 12.96 13.29 Wholesale prices: cents/lb Grade A butter 71.9 135.3 148.8 120.1 Amer. cheese, Wisc. assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 126.0 142.4 143.8 146.1 Barrels 115.6 136.3 134.9 129.2 Nonfat dry milk, C. States, 120.6 106.9 107.1 107.4 International prices: $/metric ton Butter 1,676 2,165 2,194 2,194 Nonfat dry milk 1,963 1,728 1,743 1,665 Beginning stocks: Mil. lb Commercial butter 17.4 43.4 26.2 14.9 Commercial American cheese 369.6 421.3 399.5 384.8 Other cheese 110.5 109.6 90.2 65.6 Manufacturers nonfat dry milk 49.2 133.9 110.6 100.6 All commercial (mf. basis) 4,684 5,799 5,058 4,478 All commercial (ss. basis) 5,395 6,948 6,251 5,730 All Government (mf. basis) 9 19 16 18 All Government (ss. basis) 9 99 171 257 USDA net removals: Mil. lb Butter 0.1 5.3 7.1 6.3 Cheese 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.2 Nonfat dry milk 5.7 24.9 30.8 30.9 All products (mf basis 2/) 10.1 141.2 175.7 153.7 All products (ss basis 2/) 75.1 312.2 376.1 371.1 Nov-96 Sep-97 Oct-97 Nov-97 Dairy product output: Mil. lb Butter 95.3 79.7 83.2 88.2 American cheese 262.2 260.6 260.1 249.7 Other-than-American cheese 333.3 345.1 359.5 349.9 Frozen products 1/, Mil. gal. 77.1 99.8 97.0 78.3 All products (mf basis 2/) 7370.9 7687.3 7642.9 7233.4 Nonfat dry milk 76.7 77.3 72.5 73.6 Commercial disappearance: Mil. lb Butter 98.4 79.4 95.1 NA American cheese 275.3 299.7 282.4 NA Other-than-American cheese 373.1 383.5 408.5 NA Nonfat dry milk 69.9 65.5 71.1 NA All products (mf. basis) 12737.0 13009.0 13588.0 NA Imports (mf basis 2/) 333.8 227.8 266.1 NA Annual Forecasts 1995 1996 1997 1998 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions 6,743 6,928 7,166 7,343 CPI-U, Annual % Change 2.7 3.2 2.0 2.6 Unemployment rate, 5.6 5.4 5.0 4.9 3-Month T Bill,% 5.5 5.0 5.1 5.2 10-Year Bond,% 6.6 6.4 6.4 6.2 Production, million lb. Beef 25,115 25,419 25,388 24,975 Pork 17,811 17,085 17,254 18,675 Broilers 25,021 26,336 27,287 28,800 Turkeys 5,129 5,466 5,450 5,450 Total Red Meat & Poultry 74,070 75,303 76,330 78,760 Eggs, mil doz. 5,269 5,393 5,441 5,575 Milk 155,425 154,331 156,686 157,100 Commercial use 154,857 15,063 157,090 158,200 Net removals (mf basis) 2,102 86 1,298 700 Per capita consumption, Retail wt. Beef 67.5 67.7 66.4 66.7 Pork 52.4 49.1 48.7 52.4 Broilers 68.8 70.8 72.6 76.3 Turkeys 17.9 18.5 17.8 17.7 Total Red Meat & Poultry 210.3 209.1 208.0 215.5 Eggs, number 236 237 239 242 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb.$/cwt 66.24 65.21 64-69 66-71 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt 68.03 61.08 74-79 79-84 Bng Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt 35.58 30.33 33-36 40-43 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn, $/cwt52.35 53.39 50-53 38-41 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb 56.38 61.24 57-61 54-58 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb 66.35 66.50 63-67 60-64 Eggs, New York, cents/doz 72.85 88.18 78-84 74-79 Milk, all at plant $/cwt 12.74 14.74 13.0-13.8 12.9-13.8 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 11.83 13.39 11.7-12.5 11.7-12.6 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 1,821 1,877 2,093 1,985 Beef & veal imports 2,103 2,073 2,328 2,700 Pork exports 787 970 1,040 990 Pork imports 664 618 627 575 Broiler exports 3,894 4,420 4,683 4,750 Turkey exports 348 438 599 610 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, November 1997. Quarterly 1996/98 Forecasts QI'96 QII'96 QIII'96 QIV'96 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 6,814 6,885 6,930 7,009 CPI-U, Ann. % Chang 2.8 3.8 2.3 3.2 Unemployment rate, 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.3 3-Month T Bill,% 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 10-Year Bond,% 5.9 6.7 6.8 6.3 Production, million Beef 6,303 6,642 6,390 6,084 Pork 4,389 4,104 4,143 4,449 Broilers 6,610 6,571 6,628 6,527 Turkeys 1,270 1,378 1,415 1,403 Total Meat 18,847 18,931 18,807 18,717 Eggs, mil doz. 1,330 1,320 1,352 1,392 Milk (mf basis) 39,053 39,638 37,674 37,966 Commercial use 37,671 39,833 38,749 38,810 Net removals 19 29 19 19 Consumption, Retail Beef 17.0 17.5 17.0 16.2 Pork 12.6 11.6 12.0 12.9 Broilers 17.6 18.0 18.1 17.1 Turkeys 3.7 3.9 4.6 6.2 Total Meat 51.8 51.9 52.5 53.0 Eggs, number 58.8 58.0 59.1 61.2 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 63.06 60.26 67.13 70.39 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 58.11 56.87 63.20 66.15 Brk Cows,S. Falls 32.52 30.37 31.74 26.68 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 46.23 54.82 57.75 54.75 Broiler,12 City 56.22 61.07 64.22 63.46 Turkeys, Eastern 64.80 65.40 64.90 70.90 Eggs, New York 89.60 80.50 85.90 96.70 Milk, all at plant 13.83 14.27 15.80 15.07 Milk, M-W 12.67 13.59 14.93 12.36 U.S. Trade, million Beef/veal exports 452 544 436 445 Beef/veal imports 508 526 555 484 Pork exports 225 321 184 240 Pork imports 144 155 154 165 Broiler exports 1,075 1,057 1,121 1,167 Turkey exports 96 93 124 125 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, November 1997 QI'97 QII'97 QIII'97 QIV'97 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 7,089 7,140 7,222 7,269 CPI-U, Ann. % Chang 2.4 1.1 2.0 2.5 Unemployment rate, 5.3 4.9 4.9 4.8 3-Month T Bill,% 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 10-Year Bond,% 6.6 6.7 6.2 6.0 Production, million Beef 6,112 6,419 6,607 6,250 Pork 4,194 4,091 4,194 4,775 Broilers 6,628 6,948 6,861 6,850 Turkeys 1,235 1,404 1,411 1,400 Total Meat 18,426 19,100 19,290 19,514 Eggs, mil doz. 1,344 1,336 1,351 1,410 Milk (mf basis) 38,922 40,648 38,897 38,219 Commercial use 38,517 39,064 39,809 39,700 Net removals 99 285 385 529 Consumption, Retail Beef 16.2 17.1 17.0 16.1 Pork 11.8 11.6 12.0 13.3 Broilers 17.6 18.8 18.6 17.6 Turkeys 3.5 4.0 4.2 6.1 Total Meat 49.7 52.2 52.4 53.7 Eggs, number 58.8 59.0 59.4 62.0 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 66.40 66.63 65.65 64-69 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 69.42 75.88 80.44 76-82 Brk Cows,S. Falls 32.02 37.05 35.70 32-34 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 51.06 56.41 54.45 42-45 Broiler,12 City 60.00 59.10 62.00 52-56 Turkeys, Eastern 58.90 66.10 68.20 64-69 Eggs, New York 84.90 72.10 79.70 85-92 Milk, all at plant 13.47 12.70 12.93 13.9-14.9 Milk, M-W 12.30 11.91 10.96 12.5-13.5 U.S. Trade, million Beef/veal exports 455 513 600 525 Beef/veal imports 536 716 576 500 Pork exports 195 273 272 300 Pork imports 158 150 157 162 Broiler exports 1,090 1,098 1,223 1,272 Turkey exports 128 149 162 160 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, November 1997 QI'98 QII'98 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Bil. '87$ 7,314 7,358 CPI-U, Ann. % Chang 2.5 2.6 Unemployment rate, 4.8 4.9 3-Month T Bill,% 5.3 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 6.8 6.3 Production, million Beef 6,300 6,250 Pork 4,550 4,525 Broilers 7,000 7,300 Turkeys 1,225 1,400 Total Meat 19,309 19,684 Eggs, mil doz. 1,375 1,375 Milk (mf basis) 39,200 40,800 Commercial use 38,700 39,600 Net removals 300 200 Consumption, Retail Beef 17.1 16.9 Pork 12.9 12.6 Broilers 18.7 19.7 Turkeys 3.7 3.9 Total Meat 53.0 53.8 Eggs, number 59.6 59.9 Market Prices Ch. steers,Nebr. 65-67 66-70 Fdr steer,Ok Cty 78-82 78-84 Brk Cows,S. Falls 36-38 42-46 Bar/gilt, Ia/Mn. 37-39 39-41 Broiler,12 City 53-55 55-59 Turkeys, Eastern 57-59 59-63 Eggs, New York 76-80 68-72 Milk, all at plant 13.7-14.2 12.1-13.0 Milk, M-W 12.2-12.6 10.8-11.5 U.S. Trade, million Beef/veal exports 450 515 Beef/veal imports 685 730 Pork exports 220 250 Pork imports 140 140 Broiler exports 1,100 1,100 Turkey exports 140 158 /1 Macro economic forecast source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve, November 1997. END_OF_FILE