LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY May 21, 1998 May 1998, LDP-51 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY is published six times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Subsequent issues of LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND P0ULTRY are scheduled for release at 3:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on July 16, August 17, and November 17, 1998. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #LDP, $32/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ NOTICE: This release replaces the May 20, 1998 release of this report. The tables at the end of the text have been revised significantly. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Red Meat and Poultry Production Unchanged In 1999, Only Cattle Prices Higher Red meat and poultry production in 1999 is expected to be about unchanged from 1998's 79 billion pounds. Increases in broiler and pork production will likely offset a sharp decline in beef production. Primary market prices for hogs and poultry are expected to be about the same as in 1998, while cattle prices rise. Hog prices likely will average in the high $30's per cwt, wholesale broilers near 55 cents per pound, turkeys in the low 60 cents, while average Choice steer prices will likely rise from the mid-$60's per cwt in 1998 to the low $70's next year. Although hog and poultry prices are expected to be stagnant in 1999, producers' returns are expected to improve as feed costs decline further and the general inflation rate is expected to rise only about 2 percent. Red meat and poultry exports, after rising by double digits since the late 1980s, are expected to increase only about 2 percent in 1998. In 1999, meat exports again may show a modest growth of about 3 percent. Red meat imports generally declined in the early and mid-1990s, but rose a sharp 11 percent in 1997 due to the large jump in beef imports. Meat imports are expected to rise about 9 percent in 1998, then taper off to about 4 percent in 1999. Again, rising beef imports will account for the increase as more processing beef is imported to offset low domestic cow slaughter. Beef Production To Decline, Reflecting Falling Inventory Beef production will continue to contract through 1999, and likely through the turn of the century. Although cow slaughter has dropped fairly sharply from the large 1996 and 1997 levels, heifer slaughter remains high and large numbers of heifers were on feed on April 1. Tight feeder cattle supplies, lower grain prices, and improved forage conditions are likely to support continued price increases for stocker-feeder cattle and heifer retention for herd expansion beginning this summer. Beef production should begin to decline fairly sharply in 1999, reflecting the cattle inventory declines since 1996, and fairly strong heifer retention expected this summer. Favorable moisture and planting conditions in most areas and continued slow grain export sales will hold down feed costs for the next year. Present moisture conditions also suggest much improved grazing and forage prospects. Beef production in 1998 has been held up by continued large heifer slaughter, as many heifers were sold last summer and placed on feed through the fall rather than being retained for herd replacements. Last summer, grazing conditions deteriorated and grain prospects were clouded by poorer weather for growing at the very time many cattlemen had to decide whether to retain or sell their replacement heifers. Many were sold. These heifers have held up beef supplies in first-half 1998. Unless prospects decline sharply, more heifers will be bred this summer to calve in 1999, setting the stage for at least modest herd expansion beginning in 2000. On April 1, cattle on feed in the 7 monthly reporting States in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 head or more, were down 3 percent from a year earlier. This is the first year-to-year decline since October 1996. First-quarter net feedlot placements were down 16 percent from a year earlier. Still, feeder cattle supplies outside feedlots were slightly below a year earlier and will continue to drop sharply when the midyear inventory is reported in July. Net feedlot placements during April rose nearly 6 percent from a year earlier. Seasonally, placements in April are relatively low, but more importantly a large number of heavy weight cattle continue to be placed on feed. Although the number of cattle on feed on May 1 remained down from a year earlier, placements of heavy cattle will result in fairly large fed marketings through at least midsummer. Beef production remains very large in 1998 and, although likely to decline nearly 6 percent in 1999, will remain historically large. With the exception of the near record production in 1994-98 (24.3-25.4 billion pounds a year), production in 1999 will be the largest since 1978. Beef production was a record-large 25.7 billion pounds in 1976 when cattle inventories were being liquidated rapidly. Beef production has been held up in 1998 by increased heifer slaughter and record slaughter weights. Declining cattle inventories and, thus, feeder cattle supplies will continue to reduce feedlot placements over the next couple of years. Compounded by increased heifer retention, the declining cattle numbers will begin to reduce beef production fairly sharply starting this fall and continuing through at least 2000. Fed cattle prices remain under pressure from large beef and record total meat supplies. A slowdown in the beef export pace, particularly to South Korea and Japan, is also holding down price gains and more beef has been forced into the domestic market. Prices have strengthened from the low $60's in the first quarter to the mid-$60's this spring where they are likely to remain through this summer before rising to the low $70's this fall as beef supplies tighten. Record total meat supplies, at even lower relative prices for beef, will hold down price gains in 1999. Still, fed cattle prices are likely to average in the low- to mid-$70's. Choice beef retail prices averaged $2.78 a pound in April, down from $2.79 last year. Prices are expected to again average near $2.80 a pound this year, unchanged from 1996 and 1997. As supplies decline this fall and in 1999, prices are likely to rise into the mid-$2.80's, near the levels of 1992, 1994, and 1995, but well below the $2.93 record in 1993. This record may be safe even in 2000, when per capita beef supplies are likely to be the tightest, as continued large supplies of pork and poultry at relatively lower prices will hold down price gains. In addition, in recent years a larger proportion of Prime and Choice beef entered the hotel-restaurant and export markets. The trend of offering lower quality meat on the retail market with great variability in eating quality will make it increasingly difficult to recapture consumer acceptance that accrued under the old Choice grades and thus to raise prices for beef at retail. Both white meat chicken and pork loin are increasingly able to compete strongly against beef and both provide a desirable consistency and size of cut very acceptable to consumers, particularly at lower relative prices. Beef Exports To Rebound The financial crisis in Asia will likely remain a drag on beef trade through 1999. The drag could ease in the later part of the year if financial reforms stimulate consumer confidence. Stagnating demand is expected to limit sales in Korea and, depending on the economic measures that may be enacted by the Government of Japan, could affect demand for beef in that country. However, in the absence of any recessionary actions in Japan, exports may increase slightly. Mexico is expected to continue to grow strongly and any modest increase in sales to Japan could boost exports in 1999 by 3 percent to 2.1 million pounds. Tightening supplies of processing beef in the U.S. are expected to increase demand for imported beef. If the Australia-U.S. exchange rate remains at its current level, imports from Australia should increase. Given the increased price of domestic processing beef, the U.S will likely act as a destination-of-last-resort for product squeezed out of Asia. Imports in 1999 could increase about 5 percent to 2.8 million pounds. Pork Production To Rise Modestly, Hog Prices To Show Little Change Pork production is expected to rise about 2 percent in 1999, after posting a nearly 10-percent increase in 1998. The nearly double-digit rise in pork production, along with a 3-percent rise in competing meat supplies and a lackluster pork export market, are expected to pressure hog prices down about a third from 1997. Feed costs have declined, softening the effect on producers, but many producers are facing a profitability squeeze. Expectations are that feed costs will continue to decline, pushing cash costs into the mid- to low-$30's per cwt. The lower costs and strengthening hog prices this spring will likely forestall a liquidation of the breeding herd. Although some high-cost producers may exit the industry, lower-cost producers are expected to continue to expand modestly. The March Hogs and Pigs report indicated that the number of hogs kept for breeding on March 1 was 2 percent above a year ago and intended farrowings for March-August were 2 percent above a year ago. Projected farrowings for September-May are expected to be 1-2 percent above a year earlier. The rise in pigs per litter is expected to continue at a modest pace following the long term trend. Thus, the quarterly pig crops are to be up about 2 percent from a year earlier. The hogs and pigs inventory is expected to continue expanding this year and stabilize in 1999. Although per capita pork supplies are expected to rise, hog prices are expected to be about the same in 1999 as in 1998 due the sharp reduction in beef supplies. Although pork exports are expected to increase, hog prices will only benefit marginally. Most of the increase in exports will likely be due to countries seeking low-cost-protein foods. These countries will buy trimmings and other low-priced cuts at bargain prices. With abundant pork supplies and reduced beef available, retailers will likely favor pork over beef for featuring due to a favorable price relationship for pork. Retail pork prices in 1998 are expected to decline 4-6 percent and could edge 1-2 percent lower in 1999, due to a narrowing of the farm-retail price spreads from record-wide spreads in 1998. Farm-retail pork price spreads reached a record $1.80 a pound in February, but narrowed to $1.69 in April. Pork Exports To Rise Modestly Pork exports in 1999 are expected to run about 4 percent above 1998 as lower-valued cuts remain attractively priced in the world market. Export volumes and values are likely to be stressed by expansions underway in Europe, Canada, and Mexico, with only modest growth in Asian demand anticipated. The key to U.S. export levels in 1998, however, will be the extent to which lower U.S. pork prices draw lower-income countries into the market, as labor issues are resolved in Canada and cholera is eradicated in Europe. These factors, together with the assumption of slow-to-negative growth in Asia, suggest that higher-priced U.S. cuts are likely to stay home, with lower-valued cuts going to Russia and Latin America. U.S. pork exports in the first 2 months of 1998 have held above early expectations. Lower U.S. pork prices have maintained fresh shipments to Japan, despite unfavorable exchange rates. Exports to Canada continue above year-ago levels due to labor problems and a push by the Canadian industry to export to Asia. Economic recovery continues to drive very strong export flows to Mexico and persistent hog cholera in the Netherlands and Spain continues to draw U.S. products into Europe. Record Hog Imports From Canada After record hog imports from Canada in the first quarter due to labor stoppages in Ontario, U.S. imports of hogs from Canada are expected to slow for the balance of 1998. The U.S. is expected to import 2.9 million hogs this year, almost all from Canada. Favorable exchange rates that continue to enhance attractive U.S. processor bids, are the major factors driving U.S. hog imports. The same factors are expected to draw roughly 1.9 million hogs into the U.S. in 1999. Other key factors that will heavily influence hog traffic in 1999 will be the extent to which disparities in U.S.-Canada labor compensation are narrowed in Canadian processing plants and whether the planned rate of Canadian processing expansion actually happens. Lower Feed Costs Improve Poultry Producers' Returns Lower feed costs in 1998 are expected to offset lower poultry and egg prices, improving net returns to broiler producers, while returns to egg and turkey producers will be nearly unchanged from last year. Feed costs for the second quarter of 1998 are estimated to be 15-22 percent lower than a year ago for turkey, broiler, and egg producers. Broiler Production Increasing More Slowly Broiler production increases in 1998 are now forecast at about half the level that was expected a year ago. Some of the breeding stock for the heavier strains of birds, used primarily for deboning, have been affected by increased disease susceptibility. This susceptibility has caused increased mortality in the hatchery supply flock, which has limited the flock's growth rate, reduced egg production, and reduced the hatching rate of eggs produced by infected birds. Solutions to this challenge appear to be long-term in nature, as selection of birds for desirable production traits also brought this undesirable trait into part of the breeding flock. No quick fixes, such as vaccination or medications, appear to be effective. Production increases of less than 3 percent are expected in the first half of 1998. But the increases are expected to strengthen in the second half of the year as stronger increases in placements of birds for the hatchery supply flock will be coming into egg production. Slower production increases have been beneficial in limiting the amount of increased product that has been available for the market. Record domestic meat supplies and slower export growth than during the mid-1990s would have made it difficult to move large increases in broiler supplies at profitable prices. Wholesale-to-retail price spreads continued to increase, relative to a year ago, during the first quarter, as wholesale prices declined and retail prices were nearly unchanged. The average spread during 1997 was record high. Broiler production is expected to continue growing slowly in 1999. Production is expected to increase about 4 percent in 1999 after increases of about 3.5 percent in 1997 and 1998. Broiler producers will likely remain cautious when making production decisions, as there will continue to be very large domestic meat supplies and uncertainty in the export market. Expansion also may be difficult in some areas as stricter environmental laws are enacted and labor and contract grower associations become more active. Turkey Production Increasing Slowly Record production and lower exports brought a new high in per capita consumption of 3.9 pounds for the first quarter of 1998. The increase was also aided by lower retail prices. Whole birds sold for about 5 cents per pound less than a year ago during the first quarter. Wholesale prices were about 4 cents per pound lower, which narrowed the wholesale-to-retail price spread slightly from last year. Last year this spread was at its second-highest level ever, only exceeded in 1987. Turkey production is expected to decline in 1999 after 3 years of negative returns to producers. Weaker export markets and competition from large pork supplies on the domestic market are expected to keep prices under pressure. Planned conversion of some turkey production facilities to chicken production could give an alternative use for some of the assets currently in turkey production and encourage the anticipated reduction in production. Egg Production Increasing Egg production increased nearly 3 percent in the first quarter of 1998 and is expected to maintain this pace throughout 1998. Per capita consumption of eggs is expected to be the highest since 1988, although the composition of that consumption will be much different. In 1988 about 44 eggs per person (less than 20 percent) were consumed as eggs that had been processed by the egg breaking industry, then used in other food products, served as scrambled eggs in food service, or bought as a liquid or dried egg product at retail. In 1998, about 70 eggs per person (nearly 30 percent) are expected to be consumed after processing. Egg production is expected to continue increasing in 1999. Lower feed costs are expected to offset lower wholesale egg prices and keep the egg industry earning the attractive net returns that it has since 1995. Large increases in chicks hatched for table egg production signal a continuation of larger flock sizes for the next year. Poultry Exports Expected To Grow U.S. poultry exports in 1998 and 1999 are expected to expand, but the rate of growth is likely to be lower than in past years. The growth rate of shipments to Russia and the other New Independent States (NIS) is expected to slow from its robust pace over the last several years. Additionally, the financial crisis in Asia will continue to hold down exports to this area. The export markets expected to be most heavily affected are Japan and Korea. The outlook for exports to Asian countries in 1999 will hinge on whether the corrective actions already taken result in improving economic conditions by the end of 1998 or if conditions continue to decline. U.S. poultry exports to Asian countries will also face strong competition from other poultry exporters and other attractively priced meat products, especially U.S. pork exports. Exports to Hong Kong are forecast to be down in 1998 due to declining financial conditions but also to the Avian flu scare. The Avian flu incident severely affected exports to Hong Kong in first-quarter 1998. Exports to Hong Kong are expected to rebound somewhat in 1999, but are likely to remain below their 1997 levels. Slower Growth Seen for Broiler Exports Broiler exports are forecast to reach 5.025 billion pounds in 1999, up only slightly from the 4.924 billion expected in 1998. The lower rate of growth in 1999 is due primarily to a slower rate of increase in shipments to Russia and the NIS. In 1997, exports to Russia and other NIS accounted for 52 percent of all broiler exports, on a volume basis. This percentage is expected to be even higher in 1998 and 1999, due to weaker exports to Asian countries. With the anticipated continued weakness in a number of Asian economies, U.S. broiler exports will face strong competition from producers such as Thailand and China, especially in the Hong Kong and Japanese markets. Exports are expected to continue to expand in 1998 and 1999 to Mexico, Canada, and South Africa. However, the growth rate for exports to these countries is expected to be lower than in the previous year. Broiler exports in first-quarter 1998 were likely stronger than anticipated. Shipments were likely up considerably to Canada, Mexico, Jamaica, Russia, Poland, the other NIS, and South Africa. Also, shipments to Belgium and Germany were likely much higher than during the same period in 1997. With the restrictions on U.S. poultry exports going into the EU, it is assumed that most of these exports are being transshipped to other destinations through these countries. Broiler exports have also benefited from higher shipments, so far, to the Middle East, specifically the United Arab Emirates. Broiler exports to Asia have not declined as much as expected. While shipments to Hong Kong are down considerably, exports to China are up a little and shipments to Japan, which were expected to decline, are up strongly. Because the Japanese economy is lackluster, the increase in exports may be related to problems with shipments from competing countries. Weak Asian Market Hinders Turkey Exports Turkey exports in 1999 are expected to grow to 600 million pounds, after an expected decline in 1998 to 557 million. Continued growth in the Mexican market and higher shipments to Hong Kong will be the chief factors in the increase. Exports to Korea are expected to remain depressed due to its financial problems. A key uncertainty in the turkey export market is shipments to Russia. In 1996, Russia became the second largest market for U.S. turkey, but in 1997 shipments fell by more than a third. If exports to Russia begin to grow again, they will partially offset the expected decline in exports to Hong Kong and Korea in 1998. Over the first quarter of 1998, Asian economic problems, the Avian flu scare, and low prices for competing meats appear to have affected turkey exports more than any other animal product exports. Shipments to many major markets are expected to decline, with smaller exports to Korea, Hong Kong, and Poland accounting for most of the decline. Exports to Hong Kong in first-quarter 1998 are likely to be less than half what they were the previous year, but are expected to gradually strengthen during the rest of 1998. Annual exports to other Asian markets are also likely to be smaller in 1998. Hong Kong Key to Other Chicken Exports After increasing very rapidly between 1995 and 1997, exports of other chicken products are expected to grow more slowly in 1998 and 1999. Exports are forecast at 397 million pounds in 1998, up 3.5 percent, and 412 million pounds in 1999. One of the major reasons for the rapid growth in the last several years has been increasing exports to Hong Kong. In 1995, exports to Hong Kong were 33 percent of total U.S. other chicken exports and by 1997 this had increased to 180 million pounds or 47 percent. The speed at which the effects of the Avian flu scare disperse and the extent to which Asia's financial problems affect Hong Kong will be major factors in determining if other chicken exports reach forecast levels in 1998 and 1999. Over the first 2 months of 1998, exports of other chicken products were up 4 percent as sharply higher exports to Russia, Canada, the Dominican Republic, and the U.A.E. more than offset the large declines to Hong Kong and Japan. If demand remains strong in the Russian and Canadian markets and exports to Hong Kong gradually strengthen as the year progresses, shipments of other chicken products could show a small increase in 1998. Egg Exports Start To Rebuild After falling 10 percent in 1997, egg exports are expected to increase in 1998 and 1999. However, exports in both years are expected to remain below the record 253 million dozen exported in 1996. With an expected growth of 3 percent, egg exports are forecast to reach 243 million dozen in 1999. Higher shipments to Canada and Mexico and rebounding exports to Hong Kong are expected to provide most of the increases. These countries, along with Japan, are the core of the U.S. egg export market, accounting for more than three quarters of total U.S. egg exports in 1997. In January-February 1998, total egg exports rose almost 3 percent above a year earlier. Exports to Mexico and Canada continued to be well above a year earlier and offset falling shipments to Hong Kong and Japan. It is possible that Mexico and Canada will become the two largest markets for U.S. eggs in 1998. Growing Markets South Africa is a market that has continued to show good growth for U.S. broilers and other chicken. By the end of 1998 South Africa is expected to pass Canada and China to become the U.S.'s eighth largest broiler market. Because South Africa serves as a transportation center for a number of neighboring countries, total exports to South Africa are not restricted solely to its domestic use. The New Independent States, minus Russia, also appear to be good candidates for continued export growth. So far in 1998, shipments of broilers and turkeys to these countries are considerably higher than the previous year. However, shipments to there tend to be erratic, so forecasting future growth is difficult. Dairy Markets Adrift Dairy markets have been somewhat adrift thus far in 1998. Demand has been strong for milkfat but lackluster for skim solids or whole milk products. Commercial use fairly well absorbed the small increase in winter milk production--delaying seasonal price declines. But recent price declines were sharp once seasonal forces took over, and summer price rises may be slow. Late 1998 prices may hinge on whether the brightening feed conditions unleash substantial growth in milk production. Milk Production Sluggish Milk production has run just slightly above a year earlier thus far in 1998, even with near-record winter milk prices. Less than favorable structural conditions and feed problems have kept milk production stagnant since late 1996. However, a substantial new expansion may be coming--if feed prospects continue bright. Milk per cow rose 1.8 percent from a year earlier in the first quarter, following a similar rise last autumn. Expansion was slower than normally expected with the milk-feed ratio around 1.7. After somewhat unfavorable ratios during most of 1996 and 1997, producers were very conservative about responding to what might well be transitory improvement. Also, supplies of high quality forage were tight, and farmers were concerned about stretching their forage until new-crop supplies were available this spring. Asian economic woes and the resulting weakness in demand for U. S. feeds have helped ease dairy farmers' feed problems. Smaller exports, a mild winter, and an early spring caused alfalfa hay stocks to be less tight than expected. Good early forage growth in most growing areas indicate favorable prospects for this season. Even California's rains, which reduced the quality of early alfalfa cuttings, will help assure ample water for later production. Less export demand has also taken some of the steam out of feed grain and protein prices. If weather stays favorable for 1998 crops, dairy ration prices could be substantially lower by late this year. Milk-feed price ratios are projected to be moderate this spring and summer, before turning favorable in late 1998 and 1999. The 1998 average milk-feed ratio is projected to be about 1.7, with a 1.8 average in 1999. If the forage base also is restored to health, growth in milk per cow could start to accelerate as 1998 progresses. However, the feed conditions of the last 2 years, the uncertainties of improved feed supplies and prices, and recent declines in milk prices make a sudden spurt unlikely. Milk per cow is expected to increase slightly less than 2 percent in 1998, followed by a 2-percent rise next year. Returns over concentrate costs in 1998 are projected to increase 6 to 8 percent from 1997 but will stay well below the relatively strong returns of 1996. Another small rise is expected in 1999. These returns should spur herd expansions by some of the stronger producers--if a good forage base is reasonably assured and if these farmers become confident that these returns will persist. On the other hand, the improvement in returns probably will be insufficient to have much effect on the exit of weaker producers. Milk cow numbers are expected to decrease about 1 percent in 1998, with a slightly slower decline in 1999. Fractional increases in milk output are projected for this spring and summer, followed by 1-percent rises in late 1998 and 1999. Feed conditions are key to this expansion. Tight supplies of dairy-quality forage and high concentrate prices have been the major limiting factors since 1996. Dairy Demand Mixed Dairy product demand has been mixed. Sales of milkfat have been strong, even though milkfat prices have been high. Sales of regular ice cream have grown, declines in butter use have been limited, and supplies of cream have been absorbed easily. Some of this movement undoubtedly represents additions to pipeline stocks for use during the second half of the year. Even so, milkfat demand has definitely recovered from its weakness of 5 to 10 years ago. Sales of skim solids, in contrast, have been weak dispite relatively attractive prices. Winter sales were below a year earlier, particularly for nonfat dry milk and other skim milk products. Some of the earlier recovery in use of skim solids in processed foods appears to have dissipated. In addition, sales of skim milk-based consumer products have been sluggish. Winter sales of products using both milkfat and skim solids were generally lackluster but not as weak as use of skim milk products. Cheese sales were near a year earlier, while fluid milk sales were slightly lower. The weakness in cheese sales was somewhat puzzling in light of continued growth in consumer incomes and quite moderate cheese prices. Expected growth in the economy and projected steady retail dairy prices should provide for strong dairy product sales. But the recent weakness indicates that use may not be as robust as would normally be expected. Sales of skim solids are projected to increase 1 to 2 percent in 1998 and in 1999, assuming that a significant share of the recent sluggishness resulted from less-than-normal seasonal rebuilding of pipeline inventories. Milkfat sales are expected to rise at a similar rate in 1998, before dropping back to about 1-percent growth in 1999 as the higher prices start to trim growth. DEIP Changes To Help Exports Contracts accepted to export nonfat dry milk and dry whole milk under the Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP) reached the announced total allocations for the July 1997-June 1998 period, as expected. Contracts for cheese also covered almost all of its allocation. USDA announced its intention to make those unshipped quantities for which contracts had been accepted (and counted against the limits) available for new contracts. For nonfat dry milk, this will enable exporters to continue to do significant DEIP business without the disruption of waiting for the July 1 start of a new commitment year. The DEIP change probably will not trigger a surge in new contracts sufficient to absorb the current surplus of nonfat dry milk. International demand remains unaggressive because of economic weakness in Asia and perceived ample supplies of powder around the world. The EU may reach its limit on intervention purchases this spring, and Eastern Europe was reported to be off to an early start to their season. Contracts under DEIP are expected to continue at the fairly steady pace that has typified 1998 so far, with a sizable share of the contracts covering an extended delivery period. The major exception would be the uncertain prospects for Mexican purchases. Additional contracts for butter are unlikely because of the very tight domestic markets for milkfat. Since the start of the year, government purchases of nonfat dry milk under the price support program have averaged 3 million pounds per week, modest compared with most of the history of the purchase program, but the largest sustained buying since 1994. Demand weakness for skim solids as food ingredients, large powder stocks, and bolstering of nonfat dry milk output by high butter prices all contributed to the purchases. Purchases are expected to continue into early summer. Cheese Prices Drop The long-delayed seasonal declines in wholesale cheese prices began in late February and were large in April. Decreases were delayed because winter cheese production grew relatively little from a year earlier, and apparently tight pipeline stocks kept buyers from cutting purchases too much. By April, seasonal rises in cheese output had gained the upper hand and brought about a price adjustment. Cheese prices are expected to stay near current levels into summer. Gains in milk production are projected to be modest, and butter-powder operations have a substantial advantage in competing for milk. Also, cheese movement should pick up quickly once prices stabilize, as pipeline holdings are rebuilt for second-half needs. Butter prices have been generally strong but volatile: crashing in December, recovering substantially in January, slipping in March, and increasing in April. Through the seasonally heavy production season, butter markets were occasionally dominated by fears of production rises or sales reaction to strong prices. However, users of milkfat, following the very tight markets and record prices of 1997, were willing to absorb any available milkfat in building stocks for the second half. Butter prices are expected to be relatively stable in coming months. Price increases during the tight summer period are possible, but the buildup in pipeline stocks may be limiting. Meanwhile, western prices of nonfat dry milk have been near the support purchase price since the start of 1998, a level they probably will stay at until at least late summer. Reflecting cheese prices, the Basic Formula Price (BFP) actually averaged higher in the first quarter of 1998 than it had in the last quarter of 1997. However, the seasonal reckoning dropped the BFP $1.31 per cwt between February and April. The May decrease also will be large and a June decline is possible. If cheese prices stabilize as expected, the seasonal low in the BFP probably will stay above $11 per cwt. If growth in milk production appears likely to accelerate, seasonal rises may be slow to develop this summer. A substantial seasonal increase is projected, but the peak may not match the January-February levels. Winter prices of all milk averaged very close to the January-March record and were sharply higher than a year earlier. Spring milk prices will post a smaller increase, and autumn prices are expected to be below a year earlier. For the year, farm milk prices are projected to average 20 to 40 cents higher than 1997. Key uncertainties for the rest of the year are the extent of recovery in demand for skim solids and the extent and timing of acceleration in milk production gains. Milk prices in 1999 are expected to be unchanged from 1998. Retail dairy prices during January-March rose only about 1 percent from a year earlier. The farm-retail price spread declined somewhat from the very wide level of a year earlier. Retail prices are expected to be steady to declining slightly during the rest of 1998. For the year, farm milk prices, the farm-retail price spread, and retail dairy prices are all projected to average just slightly above 1997. Updated Beef Carcass-to-Retail Consumption Conversion Factor Increases to 0.7 By Lawrence Duewer The conversion factor (CF) relating beef consumption at the retail level to the carcass level for 1996 has been increased to 0.700, reversing a downward trend that started in 1986. The carcass-to-boneless equivalent CF downward trend also reverses. Table 1-- Beef carcass-to-retail and carcass-to-boneless equivalent conversion factors ------------------------------------------------------- Year Conversion factor Retail Boneless equivalent ---------------------------------------------------------- 1985 0.740 0.698 1986 0.730 0.690 1987 0.710 0.670 1988 0.705 0.667 1989 0.705 0.667 1990 0.705 0.667 1991 0.700 0.663 1992 0.700 0.663 1993 0.700 0.663 1994 0.695 0.661 1995 0.695 0.665 1996 0.700 0.669 1997 0.700 0.669 The overall decline in the conversion factor from 1985 to present reflects a gradual change to more boneless cuts in the marketing mix of products and the rapid change, beginning about 1986, to closer fat trimming before retail sale. Exterior fat left on beef cuts was reduced from as much as three-quarters to 1 inch to one-quarter inch or less. The percentage of lean in ground beef sales has also trended much higher in response to consumer demand and achieved partly with more chucks and rounds being ground into ground beef. The retail CF is adjusted when a minimum of .005 change is indicated in the annual reevaluation of the CF. The 1994 CF stayed in effect until the 1996 reevaluation indicated a change was needed. This CF will stay in effect until a reevaluation indicates another incremental change is needed. The procedure that has been used the last 10 years would have led to a decrease in the CF to 0.690 in 1995 and 1996, but the procedure has been adjusted to reflect the introduction of "advanced meat recovery" systems. New technologies have resulted in the additional recovery and thus a product called finely textured beef. This lean finely textured beef, which was mostly not recovered previously, adds to the beef supply, increasing the conversion factor. Finely textured beef contributed an estimated 130 million pounds for 1995 and 250 million pounds for 1996. ERS bases these CF changes on various data including the report "Relative Ground Beef Contribution to the United States Beef Supply" funded by The Cattlemen's Beef Promotion and Research Board; the National Consumer Retail Beef Study and National Beef Market Basket Survey reports by Texas A&M University; Cryovac's "Retail Beef Study"; and other industry reports and contacts; and changes in retail merchandising practices. Data on per capita retail disappearance in the supply and utilization table in this issue reflect the 1996 change in the conversion factor. The decline in the estimated pounds of beef purchased at retail using the prior procedures that had been used for several years may not mean an equal change in the actual amount of beef ingested. This is because the fat and bone now removed before retail sale may previously have been removed before cooking, left in the pan as grease, or left on the plate as table scraps. The conversion factor does indicate that the consumer receives relatively more lean beef per pound of product purchased. References: Cryovac. Marketing Planning and Research Department, Retail Beef Survey, 1997. Livestock and Poultry Situation and Outlook Reports, February 1988, August 1988, August 1989, November 1992, and February 1996. Nelson, Kenneth E., Duewer, Lawrence A., and Crawford, Terry L., Reevaluation of the Beef Carcass-to-Retail Weight Conversion Factor, AER No. 623, U.S. Dept. of Agr., Econ. Res. Serv., Sept. 1989. Savell, J. W., J.J. Harris, H.R. Cross, D.S. Hale, and L.C. Beasley. 1991. National Beef Market Basket Survey. J. Anim. Sci. 69:2883. Savell, J.W., H.R. Cross, D.S. Hale, and Lisa Beasley, National Beef Market Survey, Meat Research Brief, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, 1988, 14 pages. The American Meat Institute Foundation, Relative Ground Beef Contribution to the United States Beef Supply, funded by The Cattlemen's Beef Promotion and Research Board, December 1996. Copies of the Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Situation and Outlook are available through the ERS Autofax System. Using a telephone attached to a fax machine, call 202-694-5700 and request Document Number 11515. Principal Contributors - (202) 694-5180 Leland Southard, (Coordinator), Milton Madison (Poultry), David Harvey (Poultry Trade), Ron Gustafson (Cattle), Shayle Shagam (Beef Trade), Mildred Haley (Pork Trade), Jim Miller (Dairy), Laverne Williams (Statistics). PRODUCTION INDICATORS 1997 1998 Apr. Feb. Mar. Apr. /* 1,000 Head Cattle: On feed - 7 States 8,904 9,180 8,835 8,607 Net placements 1,228 1,234 1,352 1,297 Marketings 1,648 1,579 1,580 1,609 Broilers: Eggs in incubators(000)/1 587,871 590,837 608,037 610,725 Chicks hatched (000) 693,746 644,504 731,998 720,716 Hatching egg layers 52,112 54,713 54,607 54,825 Pullets placed (000) 6,036 6,263 6,776 6,500 Hvy-type hen slaughter 4,893 4,952 5,028 5,200 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators (000)/1 37,214 33,404 32,752 32,821 Poults placed (000) 28,220 25,093 26,362 25,747 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil.doz.) 446.3 426.8 480.7 460 Table egg layers, (000) /1 249,219 253,640 255,778 255,049 Table eggs/100 layers /1 72.6 71.8 71.8 73.8 Chicks hatched (000) /2 38,873 34,573 39,986 38,000 Lt.-type hen slaughter /2 11,052 7,740 7,939 10,500 ESTIMATED RETURNS 1997 1998 May Mar. Apr. May /* Cents/lb. Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 62.47 69.91 70.67 66.71 Selling price 67.36 62.05 64.54 65 Net margin 4.89 -7.86 -6.13 -1.71 N. Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price /3 46.73 43.98 43.74 42.93 Selling price 57.55 33.97 34.44 43.25 Net margin 10.82 -10.01 -9.3 0.32 Broiler Wholesale cost 54.25 50.57 50.19 49.53 Wholesale price 58.53 58.1 58.52 60 Net margin 4.28 7.53 8.33 10.47 Turkey Wholesale cost 68.4 65.37 64.34 63.69 Wholesale price 65.9 55.37 57.02 57 Net margin -2.5 -10 -7.32 -6.69 Egg Wholesale cost 74.38 68.73 67.92 66.15 Wholesale price 72.85 85.11 76.85 60 Net margin -1.53 16.38 8.93 -6.15 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* estimate MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - 1998 May '97 May '98 Jan Feb Mar Apr May/* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 10,391 10,290 2,157 1,977 2,081 2,100 1,975 Veal 140 101 24 21 23 17 16 Pork 6,970 7,667 1,634 1,457 1,596 1,570 1,410 Lamb 111 113 21 21 26 25 20 Total red meat 17,612 18,171 3,836 3,476 3,726 3,712 3,421 Broilers 11,336 11,482 2,368 2,143 2,321 2,350 2,300 Other chicken 214 213 44 39 40 45 45 Turkeys 2,156 2,165 434 411 445 425 450 Total poultry 13,707 13,860 2,846 2,593 2,806 2,820 2,795 Total meat & poultry 31,319 32,031 6,682 6,069 6,532 6,532 6,216 Jan. - Jan. - 1998 May '97 May '98 Jan Feb Mar Apr May/* Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 15,139 14,387 3,040 2,747 2,894 2,943 2,763 Steers 7,337 7,015 1,450 1,345 1,379 1,432 1,409 Heifers 4,779 4,728 974 894 997 979 884 Beef Cows 1,475 1,244 295 232 234 256 227 Dairy Cows 1,273 1,159 273 231 237 225 193 Bulls and stags 284 241 48 45 47 51 50 Calves 649 546 128 113 127 92 86 Sheep 1,681 1,689 310 309 386 382 303 Hogs 37,136 40,596 8,588 7,711 8,477 8,345 7,475 Barrows & gilts 35,654 39,030 8,272 7,416 8,152 8,015 7,175 Sows 1,228 1,351 270 252 284 285 260 Broilers 3,207 3,225 669 607 650 650 650 Turkeys 2,156 2,165 434 411 445 425 450 1998 May '97 Jan Feb Mar Apr May/* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 693 716 726 725 720 720 Calves 216 186 188 181 185 185 Sheep 67 68 68 69 67 67 Hogs 189 191 190 189 189 189 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 285 350 327 331 330 338 Pork 440 346 446 464 459 482 Bellies 54 45 55 55 54 59 Hams 86 46 70 76 79 79 Total chicken 744 614 625 639 676 688 Turkey 543 415 498 513 527 577 Frozen eggs 8 10 12 12 10 9 /* Estimates with exception of Cold Storage LIVESTOCK PRICES May-97 Feb-98 Apr-98 May-98 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 67.36 60.77 64.52 65.00 Nebraska Direct 67.49 59.74 64.68 65.00 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 39.13 40.34 40.44 41.00 Utility boning 38.00 38.50 38.44 39.00 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 84.21 83.14 86.20 93.00 600-650 lb. 84.21 83.14 86.20 86.00 750-800 lb. 76.32 75.28 74.96 74.00 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 81.91 80.51 86.78 82.00 700-750 lb. 73.57 70.67 72.85 71.00 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 57.54 34.11 35.12 43.75 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 57.55 34.53 34.44 43.25 Sows 6 Markets 51.02 28.49 28.19 31.75 Feeder pigs - No. 1&2 So. Mo. 40-50 lb. (per hd.) NA NA NA NA Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 83.17 74.31 71.50 63.00 Ewes, Good 43.69 50.69 43.38 NA Feeder lambs, Choice 104.75 92.00 76.00 75.00 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES May-97 Feb-98 Apr-98 May-98 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 2.84 2.58 2.41 2.38 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 4.52 3.55 3.26 3.25 SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 306.39 192.75 162.51 160.00 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 112.30 106.00 105.00 NA Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 95.90 74.10 78.20 NA /* Estimates WHOLESALE PRICES May-97 Feb-98 Mar-98 Apr-98 May-98 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700# 105.97 96.27 95.34 98.32 102.75 Choice 1-3 700-850# 105.72 94.57 94.04 97.61 102.35 Select 1-3 700-850# 99.00 92.77 91.97 96.23 100.50 Canner-Cutter Cows 70.16 65.64 64.08 65.60 67.00 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 93.86 98.45 95.37 94.37 93.25 Importd Bnls beef 90% fz 89.31 89.88 88.38 88.08 88.25 Hide & offal value 8.72 7.21 7.62 7.31 7.45 Veal carcass, 220-280# 165.96 171.41 170.69 168.90 166.00 Pork, Central U.S. Pork Cutout, NA 54.52 53.41 54.32 64.50 Loins, 14-19 lb. NA 107.95 104.56 102.51 133.40 Bellies, 12-14 lb. NA 45.89 42.28 54.65 55.00 Hams, 20-27 lb. NA 44.96 44.42 38.90 41.00 Trimmings, 72% fres NA 33.34 29.64 31.16 29.25 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. Down, Choice 194.75 153.14 153.25 144.83 138.00 55-65 lb., Choice 189.75 151.14 151.25 142.83 136.00 cents/lb. Broilers 12 City Avg. 58.53 56.40 58.10 58.52 60.00 Georgia dock 59.68 54.65 55.68 56.51 58.00 Northeast Breast, boneless 164.46 163.77 166.27 169.07 180.00 Breast, Ribs on 84.88 84.75 88.76 82.80 90.00 Legs, whole 48.08 45.21 45.86 44.99 43.00 Leg quarters 30.26 30.15 30.30 29.21 26.00 Turkeys Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 66.08 54.96 56.48 57.42 57.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 66.64 54.04 55.49 58.14 58.00 Breast, 4-8 lb. 94.95 91.24 91.36 91.96 92.00 Drumsticks 29.20 25.69 31.20 31.06 26.00 Wings, full cut 31.37 27.59 28.22 28.87 29.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz 12 City Metro 72.85 76.08 85.11 76.85 60.00 New York 72.30 72.45 81.45 71.59 59.00 /* estimate RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Apr-97 Jan-98 Feb-98 Mar-98 Apr-98 Retail prices Beef - Choice 279.0 275.3 272.0 273.1 278.2 Beef - All Fresh 253.0 253.2 252.7 255.8 255.4 Ground Beef 138.1 145.7 139.8 141.3 141.9 Rib roast 286.6 277.4 273.8 272.6 275.1 T-bone steak 583.1 582.7 608.0 585.1 607.5 Pork 226.5 234.8 234.5 229.8 225.0 Bacon 266.0 264.4 262.3 253.9 244.4 Chops 344.5 334.2 330.0 315.1 324.3 Picnic 215.7 238.1 231.1 232.6 228.0 Chicken - Composite 148.8 153.4 150.6 150.3 151.7 Whole, fresh 100.2 102.2 100.7 103.2 102.9 Breast - bone in 200.4 203.3 197.6 198.8 201.7 Leg quarter 121.5 128.0 127.1 124.9 125.6 Turkey; whole frozen 103.2 103.4 100.1 99.6 97.2 Eggs, Grade A, Large 108.1 112.0 107.3 104.3 106.1 Price indexes CPI - All 160.2 161.6 161.9 162.2 162.5 All food 156.6 159.9 159.4 159.7 159.8 All meat 143.4 143.2 142.4 142.2 140.8 Beef & veal 136.2 136.8 135.9 136.8 136.5 Pork 153.6 152.1 151.5 149.5 145.9 Poultry 155.4 155.1 155.3 155.1 154.3 Price Spreads Beef Farm to wholesale 18.9 18.4 20.5 17.1 15.2 Wholesale to retail 119.2 121.1 123.5 126.1 15.2 Farmers share (%) 51.0 49.0 47.0 48.0 49.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 34.0 38.8 39.4 37.1 35.3 Wholesale to retail 105.7 138.6 140.5 138.4 134.0 Farmers share (%) 38.0 24.0 23.0 24.0 25.0 Poultry and eggs Wholesale to retail Broilers 87.3 97.6 90.2 88.9 89.7 Retail to consumer Turkey 32.0 38.8 37.2 35.2 31.2 Eggs 30.0 27.3 32.2 20.2 30.3 U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Feb-98 Mar-98 Jan - Jan - Mar-97 Mar-98 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 36,249 62,706 112,176 161,679 New Zealand 69,972 66,652 144,198 190,074 Canada 64,503 62,376 174,971 201,045 Brazil 6,648 10,504 24,644 28,804 Argentina 8,606 8,451 30,584 29,824 Central America 8,037 7,456 24,802 19,379 Other 3,878 4,978 24,823 13,264 Total 197,893 223,124 536,199 644,069 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 87,664 97,216 233,789 269,475 Canada 19,991 21,390 63,445 61,030 Mexico 30,535 30,814 53,002 87,186 Korea, Rep. 6,211 15,617 62,533 28,389 Caribbean 1,596 1,926 3,375 5,403 Other 13,835 19,811 39,010 48,966 Total 159,832 186,774 455,154 500,448 Cattle Imports Mexico 62,163 81,158 162,820 201,414 Canada 114,883 127,660 331,810 336,530 Over 700 lbs. 102,578 115,540 288,291 302,927 500-700 lbs. 7,355 4,961 31,653 17,265 Total 177,046 208,892 494,637 538,018 Cattle Exports Mexico 16,294 15,793 51,720 50,219 Canada 5,913 7,544 10,342 18,135 Total 22,525 23,874 63,217 69,824 Lamb Imports Australia 2,856 4,733 8,518 10,564 New Zealand 2,918 4,539 8,340 9,951 Total 5,839 9,319 17,038 20,671 Mutton Imports 2,987 4,676 7,621 11,537 ---------------------------------------------------------- Customs Service Product wt., m YTD imports under WTO 12/31/96 12/31/97 % Chg Canada 227,693 265,112 16.4 TRQ Countries 402,053 459,601 14.3 Australia 182,881 213,877 16.9 New Zealand 162,939 190,078 16.7 /* 1996 data includes Uruguay /* 1997 data includes Uruguay and Argentina ---------------------------------------------------------- Feb-98 Mar-98 Jan- Jan - Mar-97 Mar-98 Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lb. Canada 32,089 35,345 103,490 102,514 Denmark 12,829 10,735 38,035 31,909 Poland 1,651 2,027 3,548 4,895 Hungary 422 687 2,064 1,645 Netherlands 1,216 826 2,008 2,990 Other 3,352 3,671 8,932 10,394 Total 51,558 53,290 158,077 154,348 Pork Exports Japan 33,896 39,214 83,747 109,491 Canada 12,191 11,505 27,171 36,487 Mexico 9,070 11,265 16,243 30,866 Caribbean 987 827 2,344 2,842 Other 37,228 52,511 65,360 116,264 Total 93,371 115,321 194,866 295,950 Hog Imports Head Canada 321,504 352,390 762,972 1,055,543 Under 110 lb 91,993 122,449 227,187 301,990 Total 321,510 352,398 763,055 1,055,651 Hog Exports Total 8,423 6,585 9,703 30,495 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 18,736 16,461 36,715 58,285 Mexico 22,760 26,027 55,597 68,561 Hong Kong 56,673 82,046 207,511 164,635 Singapore 1,265 1,665 9,556 4,925 Canada 8,963 10,716 23,516 30,196 Former USSR 166,077 134,161 524,489 535,778 Total 407,423 392,963 1,089,761 1,241,010 Turkey Exports Mexico 15,263 15,309 41,786 42,282 S. Korea 145 47 4,886 360 Hong Kong 2,547 2,167 28,462 8,057 Total 31,181 34,558 127,645 95,457 Shell thousand dz. Egg Exports 7,139 9,189 24,593 22,698 Annual Forecasts 1997 1998 1999 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 7,191 7,392 7,572 CPI-U, Annual % Change 1.9 2.1 2 Unemployment rate, % 5.0 4.8 5 3-Month T Bill,% 5.1 5.1 5 10-Year Bond,% 6.4 5.7 6 Production, million lb. Beef 25,384 25,290 23,825 Pork 17,244 18,887 19,350 Broilers 27,271 28,207 29,400 Turkeys 5,478 5,515 5,425 Total Red Meat & Poultry 76,322 78,757 78,835 Eggs, mil doz. 5,456 5,582 5,675 Milk 156,602 157,692 159,400 Commercial use (mf basis) 156,462 158,911 160,600 Net removals (mf basis) 1,275 546 900 Per capita consumption, Retail lb. Beef 66.9 67.6 63 Pork 48.7 52.8 54 Broilers 72.7 73.9 77 Turkeys 17.6 18.1 18 Total Red Meat & Poultry 208.6 214.7 213 Eggs, number 239 243 244 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 66.32 66.68 71-76 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt 76.19 78.87 82-88 Bng Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 34.27 41.32 45-48 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cw 51.36 37.19 36-39 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb 58.78 57.35 55-59 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 64.93 60.53 60-64 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 81.23 76.75 70-75 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 13.34 13.65 12.9-13.8 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 12.05 12.33 11.6-12.4 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 2,136 2,085 2,155 Beef & veal imports 2,343 2,675 2,800 Pork exports 1,044 1,075 1,120 Pork imports 633 600 570 Broiler exports 4,664 4,925 5,025 Turkey exports 598 557 600 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, February 1998 Quarterly 1997/99 Forecasts QI'97 QII'97 QIII'97 QIV'97 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 7,089 7,140 7,222 7,290 CPI-U, Annual % Change 2.4 1.1 2.0 2.5 Unemployment rate, % 5.3 4.9 4.9 4.7 3-Month T Bill,% 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 10-Year Bond,% 6.6 6.7 6.2 5.9 Production, million lb. Beef 6,107 6,416 6,603 6,258 Pork 4,192 4,090 4,196 4,766 Broilers 6,639 6,937 6,864 6,831 Turkeys 1,236 1,404 1,411 1,428 Total Red Meat & Poultry 18,428 19,082 19,287 19,525 Eggs, mil doz. 1,349 1,341 1,354 1,412 Milk 38,961 40,683 38,805 38,153 Commercial use (mf basis) 38,047 38,855 40,328 39,232 Net removals (mf basis) 99 285 385 506 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 16.3 17.3 17.1 16.2 Pork 11.8 11.6 12.0 13.3 Broilers 17.7 18.8 18.6 17.6 Turkeys 3.5 4.0 4.2 6.0 Total Red Meat & Poultry 49.9 52.3 52.5 53.9 Eggs, number 59.0 59.2 59.5 61.8 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 66.40 66.63 65.65 66.61 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt 69.44 75.88 80.44 78.98 Bng Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 32.02 37.05 35.20 32.80 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cw 51.06 56.41 54.45 43.53 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb 60.00 59.10 62.00 54.00 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 58.90 66.10 68.20 66.50 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 84.90 72.10 79.70 88.20 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 13.50 12.70 12.63 14.53 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 12.30 10.96 11.91 13.03 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 455 513 600 568 Beef & veal imports 536 716 576 515 Pork exports 195 273 272 304 Pork imports 158 150 157 168 Broiler exports 1,090 1,098 1,223 1,253 Turkey exports 128 149 162 160 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, February 1998 QI'98 QII'98 QIII'98 QIV'98 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 7,336 7,370 7,407 7,453 CPI-U, Annual % Change 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.4 Unemployment rate, % 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.9 3-Month T Bill,% 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.1 10-Year Bond,% 6.8 5.7 5.8 5.8 Production, million lb. Beef 6,215 6,425 6,575 6,075 Pork 4,687 4,600 4,650 4,950 Broilers 6,832 7,125 7,150 7,100 Turkeys 1,290 1,400 1,425 1,400 Total Red Meat & Poultry 19,258 19,762 19,993 19,744 Eggs, mil doz. 1,382 1,375 1,400 1,425 Milk 39,292 40,900 38,900 38,600 Commercial use (mf basis) 38,311 39,500 41,100 40,000 Net removals (mf basis) 246 100 100 100 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 16.9 17.4 17.5 15.8 Pork 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.9 Broilers 17.8 19.1 18.8 18.2 Turkeys 3.9 3.9 4.3 5.9 Total Red Meat & Poultry 52.0 54.0 54.4 54.4 Eggs, number 60.2 59.9 60.9 61.9 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 61.73 66.00 67.00 72.00 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt 75.49 77.00 81.00 82.00 Bng Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 38.28 42.00 43.00 42.00 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cw 34.74 38.00 40.00 36.00 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb 56.40 58.00 60.00 55.00 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 55.10 59.00 63.00 65.00 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 79.00 70.00 75.00 83.00 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 14.60 13.30 12.70 14.00 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 13.13 11.55 11.75 12.90 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 460 520 540 565 Beef & veal imports 660 730 700 585 Pork exports 270 262 261 282 Pork imports 155 150 140 155 Broiler exports 1,225 1,150 1,225 1,325 Turkey exports 105 140 151 161 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, February 1998 QI'99 Economic Indicators /1 7,501 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 2.3 CPI-U, Annual % Change 4.9 Unemployment rate, % 5.3 3-Month T Bill,% 5.8 10-Year Bond,% Production, million lb. 5,825 Beef 4,800 Pork 7,150 Broilers 1,225 Turkeys 19,227 Total Red Meat & Poultry 1,400 Eggs, mil doz. 39,700 Milk 38,700 Commercial use (mf basis) 400 Net removals (mf basis) Per capita consumption, Retail 15.6 Beef 13.3 Pork 18.9 Broilers 3.7 Turkeys 52.1 Total Red Meat & Poultry 60.3 Eggs, number Market Prices 72-74 Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 81-85 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt 44-46 Bng Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 34-36 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cw 55-57 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb 55-57 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 74-77 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 13.8-14.3 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 12.3-12.8 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. U.S. Trade, million lb. 475 Beef & veal exports 690 Beef & veal imports 270 Pork exports 150 Pork imports 1,200 Broiler exports 140 Turkey exports /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, February 1998 U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Apr-97 May-97 Jun-97 Jul-97 Aug-97 Sep-97 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 67,168 75,746 63,411 56,069 70,247 63,361 New Zealand 51,820 81,119 88,463 59,673 44,385 27,339 Canada 64,265 56,738 57,249 44,449 54,741 59,755 Brazil 7,414 8,715 8,664 8,878 7,425 6,621 Argentina 11,441 15,021 12,272 12,614 11,558 8,382 Central America 7,093 10,218 4,732 4,031 8,364 11,650 Other 6,587 8,525 9,103 6,793 4,211 5,090 Total 215,788 256,082 243,894 192,509 200,930 182,197 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 97,352 92,346 81,243 91,224 93,797 94,633 Canada 19,941 21,844 21,445 37,274 27,703 21,781 Mexico 20,577 24,486 27,618 28,905 29,393 30,499 Korea, Rep. 21,033 15,120 19,561 26,064 28,472 25,413 Caribbean 1,206 810 1,018 1,072 811 790 Other 15,584 14,265 17,179 16,643 22,301 23,201 Total 175,692 168,872 168,064 201,182 202,476 196,318 Cattle Imports Head Mexico 61,134 41,681 28,243 20,543 23,149 26,681 Canada 144,819 130,464 93,711 108,286 99,663 145,505 Over 70 lbs. 116,645 111,381 87,540 103,471 91,782 126,593 440-700 lbs. 21,298 13,324 2,371 1,744 3,635 9,197 Total 205,953 172,145 121,954 128,829 122,823 172,186 Cattle Exports Mexico 17,785 13,934 16,839 22,479 25,874 22,130 Canada 2,255 3,124 2,009 3,296 3,224 3,244 Total 20,709 17,697 19,747 25,937 29,330 25,828 Lamb Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 3,272 3,345 3,092 2,288 1,860 2,075 New Zealand 2,548 2,415 2,505 1,711 1,899 1,536 Total 5,882 5,884 5,768 4,074 3,784 3,670 Mutton Imports Total 2,633 2,004 1,630 1,470 1,293 1,080 Lamb and mutton exports Total 597 447 298 457 545 489 Pork Imports Canada 32,428 34,188 34,093 35,982 37,201 39,660 Denmark 14,593 8,371 6,803 8,689 9,021 9,764 Poland 783 1,293 1,099 1,388 740 1,050 Hungary 820 1,197 737 616 805 543 Netherlands 919 359 526 790 84 977 Other 4,573 3,960 2,846 3,933 2,281 3,288 Total 54,117 49,368 46,104 51,397 50,131 55,281 Pork Exports Japan 45,796 44,275 43,789 42,907 44,292 36,101 Canada 9,923 11,820 12,035 9,754 9,020 10,070 Mexico 6,548 6,776 6,591 7,855 7,149 8,255 Caribbean 696 1,172 1,250 716 925 1,107 Other 32,643 24,898 24,682 28,164 32,546 33,201 Total 95,605 88,941 88,347 89,396 93,932 88,735 Hog Imports Head Canada 230,568 289,595 226,761 261,223 227,802 248,186 Under 110 lbs.73,667 110,330 81,399 89,110 71,152 87,849 Total 230,749 289,595 227,205 261,683 227,802 248,186 Hog Exports Total 8,490 6,341 3,112 3,170 1,777 3,313 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 15,274 19,789 23,844 16,686 19,241 15,583 Mexico 22,321 20,619 18,994 20,345 21,800 21,638 Hong Kong 66,170 71,817 64,997 84,392 74,098 74,611 Singapore 2,834 2,001 2,670 2,362 3,185 3,685 Canada 9,473 11,544 10,705 11,509 11,782 11,031 Former USSR 122,830 198,031 167,109 157,196 176,683 159,068 Total 301,974 400,393 395,738 398,646 432,935 391,484 Turkey Exports Mexico 14,935 14,146 16,426 12,671 16,459 17,376 S. Korea 2,137 2,975 2,107 2,845 2,423 2,668 Hong Kong 11,858 8,695 8,486 11,058 11,249 14,818 Total 47,104 47,106 54,901 48,067 48,927 64,878 Shell Thousand dz. Egg Exports 6,246 7,285 8,173 6,959 7,780 9,459 U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Oct-97 Nov-97 Dec-97 Jan-98 Feb-98 Mar-98 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 44,285 52,782 34,175 62,724 36,249 62,706 New Zealand 22,765 21,041 35,241 53,449 69,972 66,652 Canada 65,991 67,072 66,223 74,167 64,503 62,376 Brazil 7,042 6,518 8,845 11,652 6,648 10,504 Argentina 11,253 12,501 21,031 12,767 8,606 8,451 Central Ameri 7,480 6,994 7,863 3,886 8,037 7,456 Other 3,184 4,692 8,362 4,407 3,878 4,978 Total 161,999 171,600 181,739 223,052 197,893 223,124 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 90,304 99,523 79,340 84,595 87,664 97,216 Canada 22,569 23,627 23,095 19,649 19,991 21,390 Mexico 34,068 28,555 35,481 25,837 30,535 30,814 Korea, Rep. 25,716 26,133 11,628 6,561 6,211 15,617 Caribbean 1,476 1,710 712 1,881 1,596 1,926 Other 19,564 22,071 22,347 15,320 13,835 19,811 Total 193,697 201,619 172,604 153,843 159,832 186,774 Cattle Imports Head Mexico 72,261 145,208 87,689 58,093 62,163 81,158 Canada 141,029 101,258 80,269 93,987 114,883 127,660 Over 70 lbs. 119,850 83,585 71,504 84,809 102,578 115,540 440-700 lbs. 11,433 9,001 3,994 4,949 7,355 4,961 Total 213,401 246,466 167,958 152,080 177,046 208,892 Cattle Exports Mexico 26,853 17,522 19,985 18,132 16,294 15,793 Canada 3,290 3,698 6,707 4,678 5,913 7,544 Total 31,053 21,745 27,081 23,425 22,525 23,874 Lamb Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 2,484 2,468 3,566 2,975 2,856 4,733 New Zealand 2,017 1,339 2,106 2,494 2,918 4,539 Total 4,609 4,010 5,710 5,513 5,839 9,319 Mutton Imports Total 1,528 1,207 2,142 3,874 2,987 4,676 Lamb and mutton exports Total 240 478 580 634 324 571 Pork Imports Canada 41,479 37,544 38,163 35,080 32,089 35,345 Denmark 8,814 9,606 10,144 8,346 12,829 10,735 Poland 1,665 1,243 2,192 1,217 1,651 2,027 Hungary 873 265 783 536 422 687 Netherlands 930 504 1,021 948 1,216 826 Other 4,386 3,395 4,614 3,372 3,352 3,671 Total 58,146 52,557 56,917 49,500 51,558 53,290 Pork Exports Japan 41,170 44,315 35,554 36,382 33,896 39,214 Canada 11,066 13,017 11,450 12,790 12,191 11,505 Mexico 9,320 7,848 10,403 10,532 9,070 11,265 Caribbean 1,323 1,284 1,383 1,029 987 827 Other 47,527 34,809 33,323 26,526 37,228 52,511 Total 110,406 101,272 92,113 87,258 93,371 115,321 Hog Imports Head Canada 287,815 282,203 361,135 381,649 321,504 352,390 Under 110 lbs.93,076 74,177 79,412 87,548 91,993 122,449 Total 287,903 282,203 361,197 381,743 321,510 352,398 Hog Exports Total 9,968 4,451 4,322 15,487 8,423 6,585 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 21,865 21,336 12,591 23,089 18,736 16,461 Mexico 23,932 18,952 24,134 19,774 22,760 26,027 Hong Kong 82,389 70,991 77,908 25,916 56,673 82,046 Singapore 3,478 2,189 2,886 1,996 1,265 1,665 Canada 10,355 11,375 8,106 10,517 8,963 10,716 Former USSR 195,196 181,826 176,455 235,540 166,077 134,161 Total 449,590 402,079 401,604 440,624 407,423 392,963 Turkey Exports Mexico 17,697 20,706 24,477 11,710 15,263 15,309 S. Korea 3,325 1,255 100 168 145 47 Hong Kong 9,683 9,143 12,173 3,343 2,547 2,167 Total 53,766 48,899 57,134 29,717 31,181 34,558 Shell Thousand dz. Egg Exports 11,495 8,896 8,657 6,370 7,139 9,189 U.S. dairy situation at a glance Unit 1995 1996 1997 Milk production: Production (20 States) Mil. lb. 131,780 131,343 133,861 Milk cow (20 States) Thou. 7,862 7,818 7,759 Milk per cow (20 States) Lb. 16,762 16,847 17,254 Production (U.S. est.) Mil. lb. 155,424 154,259 156,603 Milk prices: All milk Dol./cwt 12.74 14.88 13.34 Milk eligible for fluid use Dol./cwt 12.78 14.95 13.38 Manufacturing grade milk Dol./cwt 11.78 13.38 12.18 Minnesota-Wisconsin (3.5% Dol./cwt 11.83 13.39 12.05 Slaughter Cow, Wisc: Dol./cwt 38.11 33.00 36.93 Wholesale prices: Grade A butter Ct/lb 75.59 100.35 107.06 American cheese, WI assembly pt. 40-pound blocks Ct/lb 132.77 149.14 132.40 Barrels Ct/lb 127.33 141.72 125.23 Nonfat dry milk, Central Ct/lb 108.58 122.16 110.01 Retail prices (BLS): Consumer Price Index 1982-84=100 152.4 156.9 160.5 All food 1982-84=100 148.4 153.3 157.3 Dairy products 1982-84=100 132.8 142.1 145.5 Fluid milk and cream 1982-84=100 132.3 142.4 144.9 Manufactured products 1982-84=100 134.0 142.4 146.8 Dairy product output: Butter Mil. lb 1,264.5 1,174.5 1,151.3 American cheese Mil. lb 3,131.4 3,280.8 3,285.2 Other-than-American cheese Mil. lb 3,785.5 3,936.7 4,043.8 Frozen products 1/ Mil. gal. 1,229.6 1,240.9 1,281.4 All products (milkfat basis Mil. lb 95,633 95,013 96,218 Nonfat dry milk Mil. lb 1,233.0 1,061.8 1,217.6 Beginning stocks: Commercial butter Mil. lb 12.2 15.8 13.4 Commercial American cheese Mil. lb 309.5 306.6 379.6 Other cheese Mil. lb 126.8 105.3 107.3 Manufacturers' nonfat dry Mil. lb 103.5 70.6 71.1 All commercial (milkfat basis Mil. lb 4,263 4,099 4,704 All commercial (skim solids Mil. lb 5,712 5,037 5,753 All Government (milkfat basis Mil.lb 1,497 69 10 All Government (skim solids Mil. lb 341 172 7 Commercial disappearance: Butter Mil. lb 1,186 1,180 1,108 American cheese Mil. lb 3,149 3,230 3,269 Other-than-American cheese Mil. lb 4,126 4,243 4,366 Nonfat dry milk Mil. lb 923 1,009 895 All products (milkfat basis Mil. lb 154,835 154,990 156,629 USDA net removals: Butter Mil. lb 78.5 0.1 39.2 Cheese Mil. lb 6.1 4.6 11.3 Nonfat dry milk Mil. lb 343.8 57.2 296.7 All products (milkfat basis Mil. lb 2,106 87 1,109 All products (skim solids Mil. lb 4,374 747 3,666 Imports (milkfat basis 2/) Mil. lb 2,936 2,911 2,698 International market prices: Butter $/metric ton 2,251 1,837 1,861 Nonfat dry milk $/metric ton 2,143 1,979 1,738 1/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, and sherbert. 2/ Milk equivalent. NA = Not Available. U.S. dairy situation at a glance Unit Feb-97 Mar-97 Apr-97 May-97 Jun-97 Milk production: Production (20 States) Mil. lb. 10,321 11,641 11,446 11,869 11,419 Milk cow (20 States) Thou. 7,774 7,763 7,763 7,765 7,765 Milk per cow (20 States) Lb. 1,328 1,500 1,474 1,529 1,471 Production (U.S. est.) Mil. lb. 12,141 13,689 13,411 13,902 13,370 Milk prices: All milk Dol./cwt 13.40 13.60 13.20 12.70 12.20 Milk eligible for fluid u Dol./cwt 13.50 13.60 13.20 12.80 12.30 Manufacturing grade milk Dol./cwt 12.50 12.40 11.60 10.90 10.80 Minnesota-Wisconsin (3.5% Dol./cwt 12.46 12.49 11.44 10.70 10.74 Slaughter Cow, Wisc: Dol./cwt 35.06 38.94 40.60 40.50 38.50 Wholesale prices: Grade A butter Ct/lb 98.4 106.3 95.6 86.1 105.5 American cheese, WI assembly pt. 40-pound blocks Ct/lb 132.3 134.0 125.6 116.5 117.9 Barrels Ct/lb 127.5 126.5 121.3 114.3 112.6 Nonfat dry milk, Central Ct/lb 114.9 115.8 114.4 109.8 107.9 Retail prices (BLS): Consumer Price Index 1982-84=10 159.6 160.0 160.2 160.1 160.3 All food 1982-84=10 156.5 156.6 156.6 156.6 156.6 Dairy products 1982-84=10 146.2 146.1 145.7 145.4 144.1 Fluid milk and cream 1982-84=10 146.1 145.8 144.7 144.9 143.6 Manufactured products 1982-84=10 147.0 147.0 147.2 146.6 145.2 Dairy product output: Butter Mil. lb 108.6 105.4 118.3 102.7 82.0 American cheese Mil. lb 267.1 285.5 279.6 294.6 286.2 Other-than-American cheese Mil. lb 310.1 352.5 318.9 347.3 337.2 Frozen products 1/ Mil. gal. 95.3 112.3 114.5 123.5 131.0 All products (milkfat basis Mil.lb 7,777 8,430 8,516 8,709 8,321 Nonfat dry milk Mil. lb 93.0 114.1 127.7 132.7 120.1 Beginning stocks: Commercial butter Mil. lb 23.0 35.6 49.9 86.3 102.9 Commercial American cheese Mil. lb 383.7 379.4 392.4 428.6 446.1 Other cheese Mil. lb 117.7 115.2 124.5 126.8 138.2 Manufacturers' nonfat dry Mil. lb 75.5 71.2 80.3 118.5 151.2 All commercial (milkfat bs.Mil. lb 5,042 5,235 5,752 6,900 7,548 All commercial (skim solidsMil. lb 5,964 5,823 6,166 6,990 7,693 All Government (milkfat bs.Mil. lb 8 13 17 20 37 All Government (skim solidsMil. lb 8 8 12 13 12 Commercial disappearance: Butter Mil. lb 95.4 90.3 80.1 83.1 87.5 American cheese Mil. lb 271.9 274.8 244.3 278.4 268.5 Other-than-American cheese Mil. lb 330.3 367.2 335.9 363.2 349.4 Nonfat dry milk Mil. lb 83.1 87.8 69.6 78.7 65.8 All products (milkfat basisMil. lb 11,976 13,251 12,176 13,344 13,348 USDA net removals: Butter Mil. lb 0.8 0.9 1.9 3.1 4.5 Cheese Mil. lb 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.3 2.2 Nonfat dry milk Mil. lb 14.4 17.3 20.0 21.7 32.7 All products (milkfat basisMil. lb 37 33 53 89 130 All products (skim solids) Mil. lb 185 213 240 271 408 Imports (milkfat basis 2/) Mil. lb 171 229 179 196 205 International market prices: Butter $/metric ton 1,775 1,725 1,645 1,725 1,713 Nonfat dry milk $/metric ton 1,888 1,824 1,740 1,725 1,711 1/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, and sherbert. 2/ Milk equivalent. NA = Not Available. U.S. dairy situation at a glance Unit Jul-97 Aug-97 Sep-97 Oct-97 Nov-97 Milk production: Production (20 States) Mil. lb. 11,437 11,213 10,671 10,977 10,591 Milk cow (20 States) T hou. 7,765 7,757 7,752 7,750 7,737 Milk per cow (20 States) Lb. 1,473 1,446 1,377 1,416 1,369 Production (U.S. est.) Mil. lb. 13,324 13,058 12,423 12,818 12,363 Milk prices: All milk Dol./cwt 12.10 12.70 13.10 14.10 14.70 Milk eligible for fluid use Dol./cwt 12.20 12.80 13.10 14.10 14.70 Manufacturing grade milk Dol./cwt 10.80 11.90 12.70 13.20 13.60 Minnesota-Wisconsin (3.5%) Dol./cwt 10.86 12.07 12.79 12.83 12.96 Slaughter Cow, Wisc: Dol./cwt 40.35 37.00 36.25 35.40 33.06 Wholesale prices: Grade A butter Ct/lb 102.7 102.5 101.6 135.3 148.8 American cheese, WI assembly pt. 40-pound blocks Ct/lb 123.3 137.6 141.4 142.4 143.8 Barrels Ct/lb 113.3 129.4 133.6 136.3 134.9 Nonfat dry milk, Central Ct/lb 107.7 107.2 107.1 106.9 107.1 Retail prices (BLS): Consumer Price Index 1982-84=100 160.5 160.8 161.2 161.6 161.5 All food 1982-84=100 157.0 157.6 157.9 158.2 158.5 Dairy products 1982-84=100 143.3 143.4 143.5 145.7 147.0 Fluid milk and cream 1982-84=100 142.0 141.7 141.4 145.3 147.0 Manufactured products 1982-84=100 145.4 145.8 146.4 146.8 147.6 Dairy product output: Butter Mil. lb 80.0 68.8 79.3 83.3 89.1 American cheese Mil. lb 285.3 260.0 261.2 260.0 248.5 Other-than-American cheese Mil. lb 327.9 336.5 343.0 355.5 346.0 Frozen products 1/ Mil. gal. 132.0 119.2 103.3 99.7 80.5 All products (milkfat basis Mil. lb 8,274 7,669 7,690 7,624 7,214 Nonfat dry milk Mil. lb 111.7 90.2 77.4 72.6 75.2 Beginning stocks: Commercial butter Mil. lb 93.0 84.9 68.9 43.4 26.2 Commercial American cheese Mil. lb 464.2 469.0 459.2 433.8 414.7 Other cheese Mil. lb 140.4 135.9 122.8 109.6 90.2 Manufacturers' nonfat dry Mil. lb 173.3 158.7 154.6 133.9 114.8 All commercial (milkfat basisMil. lb 7,532 7,354 6,813 5,939 5,205 All commercial (skim solids) Mil. lb 8,160 7,984 7,703 7,097 6,456 All Government (milkfat basisMil. lb 21 31 32 19 16 All Government (skim solids) Mil. lb 8 55 84 99 171 Commercial disappearance: Butter Mil. lb 83.5 81.3 101.0 96.8 95.0 American cheese Mil. lb 280.3 272.1 287.9 279.6 259.8 Other-than-American cheese Mil. lb 355.4 373.5 381.4 404.5 396.1 Nonfat dry milk Mil. lb 103.3 59.8 63.9 66.8 58.7 All products (milkfat basis Mil. lb 13,465 13,609 13,309 13,596 12,886 USDA net removals: Butter Mil. lb 4.7 3.6 3.9 3.7 5.4 Cheese Mil. lb 1.6 0.6 0.4 1.2 0.8 Nonfat dry milk Mil. lb 23.2 35.1 34.7 24.9 31.9 All products (milkfat basis) Mil. lb 126 101 103 105 146 All products (skim solids) Mil. lb 289 425 417 312 396 Imports (milkfat basis 2/) Mil. lb 206 228 228 266 275 International market prices: Butter $/metric ton 1,715 1,844 2,008 2,165 2,194 Nonfat dry milk $/metric ton 1,650 1,620 1,694 1,729 1,731 1/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, and sherbet. 2/ Milk equivalent. NA = Not Available. U.S. dairy situation at a glance Unit Dec-97 Jan-98 Feb-98 Mar-98 Apr-98 Milk production: Production (20 States) Mil. lb. 11,118 11,316 10,434 11,808 11,564 Milk cow (20 States) Thou. 7,732 7,730 7,726 7,725 7,731 Milk per cow (20 States) Lb. 1,438 1,464 1,351 1,529 1,496 Production (U.S. est.) Mil. lb. 12,973 13,255 12,217 13,820 13,490 Milk prices: All milk Dol./cwt 14.80 14.70 14.70 14.40 14.10 Milk eligible for fluid use Dol./cwt 14.80 14.70 14.80 14.50 14.20 Manufacturing grade milk Dol./cwt 13.60 13.50 13.50 12.90 12.40 Minnesota-Wisconsin (3.5%) Dol./cwt 13.29 13.25 13.32 12.81 12.01 Slaughter Cow, Wisc: Dol./cwt 34.75 36.31 37.44 37.25 37.70 Wholesale prices: Grade A butter Ct/lb 120.1 109.2 130.1 124.6 127.0 American cheese, WI assembly pt. 40-pound blocks Ct/lb 146.1 144.5 144.7 138.8 129.7 Barrels Ct/lb 129.2 134.7 143.6 135.3 127.1 Nonfat dry milk, Central Ct/lb 107.4 105.9 105.2 104.7 104.3 Retail prices (BLS): Consumer Price Index 1982-84=100 161.3 161.6 161.9 162.2 162.5 All food 1982-84=100 158.7 159.9 159.4 159.7 159.8 Dairy products 1982-84=100 147.8 148.3 147.7 148.4 148.5 Fluid milk and cream 1982-84=100 147.0 NA NA NA NA Manufactured products 1982-84=100 149.3 NA NA NA NA Dairy product output: Butter Mil. lb 106.0 113.5 102.7 100.1 NA American cheese Mil. lb 278.6 283.2 261.1 284.3 NA Other-than-American cheese Mil. lb 349.3 332.5 313.0 359.9 NA Frozen products 1/ Mil. gal. 80.6 83.3 91.7 109.4 NA All products (milkfat basis) Mil. lb 7,801 8,009 7,600 8,273 NA Nonfat dry milk Mil. lb 102.0 103.7 97.0 105.1 NA Beginning stocks: Commercial butter Mil. lb 15.0 20.5 34.0 44.1 56.0 Commercial American cheese Mil. lb 405.3 410.3 411.7 410.5 422.4 Other cheese Mil. lb 68.9 70.0 81.7 98.8 100.5 Manufacturers' nonfat dry Mil. lb 100.6 103.3 104.1 105.3 95.3 All commercial (milkfat basis Mil.lb 4,697 4,889 5,306 5,640 6,028 All commercial (skim solids) Mil. lb 5,968 6,080 6,245 6,415 6,444 All Government (milkfat basis Mil.lb 19 18 16 17 25 All Government (skim solids) Mil. lb 257 258 309 427 569 Commercial disappearance: Butter Mil. lb 94.9 97.6 91.4 NA NA American cheese Mil. lb 276.0 282.0 263.1 NA NA Other-than-American cheese Mil. lb 384.9 337.0 312.2 NA NA Nonfat dry milk Mil. lb 70.2 65.4 63.6 NA NA All products (milkfat basis) Mil. lb 12,848 12,803 11,924 NA NA USDA net removals: Butter Mil. lb 5.9 4.0 2.2 1.3 1.0 Cheese Mil. lb 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 Nonfat dry milk Mil. lb 31.7 37.5 32.2 24.7 24.8 All products (milkfat basis) Mil. lb 158 123 76 53 37 All products (skim solids) Mil. lb 393 468 399 309 300 Imports (milkfat basis 2/) Mil. lb 342 196 215 NA NA International market prices: Butter $/metric ton 2,187 2,091 1,888 1,844 1,835 Nonfat dry milk $/metric ton 1,649 1,560 1,510 1,480 1,491 1/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, and sherbet. 2/ Milk equivalent. NA = Not Available. Poultry supply, carcass weight 1/ Production Net RTC Begin- Year Federal Other produc- ning Im- Total Inspected tion stocks ports supply - - -- - - - --Million pounds - - - - - - Broilers: 1996 26336 38 26124 560 4 26687 1997 I 6639 9 6583 641 1 7225 II 6937 9 6879 708 1 7588 III 6864 9 6806 703 2 7511 IV 6831 9 6774 546 1 7320 Year 27271 35 27041 641 5 27687 1998 I 2/ 6832 9 6773 607 1 7381 II 2 7125 9 7064 650 1 7715 III 2 7150 9 7088 625 1 7714 IV 2/ 7100 9 7039 625 1 7665 Year 2/ 28207 36 27964 607 4 28575 1999 I 2/ 7150 9 7087 650 1 7738 Year 2/ 29400 38 29141 650 4 29795 Other chicken: 1996 487 5 491 7 0 498 1997 I 123 0 123 6 0 129 II 138 0 139 7 0 146 III 124 0 124 8 0 132 IV 124 0 125 11 0 135 Year 509 2 510 6 0 516 1998 I 2/ 123 0 123 7 0 131 II 2 140 0 140 10 0 150 III 2/ 130 0 130 10 0 140 IV 2/ 125 0 125 10 0 135 Year 2/ 518 2 519 7 0 526 1999 I 2/ 135 0 135 7 0 142 Year 2/ 545 2 546 7 0 553 Turkey: 1996 5466 3 5401 271 1 5673 1997 I 1236 1 1221 328 0 1549 II 1404 1 1387 496 0 1884 III 1411 1 1394 668 0 2062 IV 1428 1 1410 771 0 2181 Year 5478 3 5412 328 1 5741 1998 I 2/ 1290 1 1274 415 0 1689 II 2 1400 1 1383 523 0 1906 III 2 1425 1 1408 700 0 2108 IV 2/ 1400 1 1383 800 0 2183 Year 2/ 5515 3 5448 415 1 5863 1999 I 2/ 1225 1 1210 425 0 1635 Year 2/ 5425 3 5359 425 1 5785 Total poultry: 1996 32289 46 32015 839 5 32859 1997 I 7997 12 7927 975 1 8903 II 8480 10 8405 1212 1 9617 III 8398 10 8323 1379 2 9705 IV 8383 10 8309 1327 1 9637 Year 33258 40 32964 975 6 33944 1998 I 2/ 8245 10 8171 1029 1 9201 II 2 8665 10 8587 1183 1 9771 III 2 8705 10 8626 1335 1 9962 IV 2 8625 10 8547 1435 1 9983 Year 2/ 34240 41 33931 1029 5 34965 1999 I 2/ 8510 10 8432 1082 1 9515 Year 2/ 35370 43 35046 1082 5 36133 Poultry utilization, carcass and retail weight 1/ Per capita Total consumption Year Ending disap- Carcass Retail Exports stocks pearance weight weight Million pounds Pounds Broilers: 1996 4420 641 21626 81.4 70.8 1997 I 1090 708 5427 20.3 17.7 II 1098 703 5787 21.6 18.8 III 1223 546 5742 21.4 18.6 IV 1253 607 5460 20.3 17.6 Year 4664 607 22416 83.7 72.7 1998 I 2/ 1225 650 5506 20.4 17.8 II 2 1150 625 5940 22.0 19.1 III 2 1225 625 5864 21.7 18.8 IV 2/ 1325 650 5690 21.0 18.2 Year 2/ 4925 650 23000 85.1 73.9 1999 I 2/ 1200 625 5913 21.8 18.9 Year 2/ 5025 650 24120 88.4 76.9 Other chicken: 1996 265 6 228 0.9 0.9 1997 I 95 7 27 0.1 0.1 II 92 8 45 0.2 0.2 III 106 11 15 0.1 0.1 IV 90 7 38 0.1 0.1 Year 384 7 125 0.5 0.5 1998 I 2/ 95 10 26 0.1 0.1 II 2 88 10 52 0.2 0.2 III 2/ 107 10 23 0.1 0.1 IV 2/ 107 7 21 0.1 0.1 Year 2/ 397 7 122 0.5 0.5 1999 I 2/ 95 5 42 0.2 0.2 Year 2/ 412 5 136 0.5 0.5 Turkey: 1996 438 328 4907 18.5 18.5 1997 I 128 496 925 3.5 3.5 II 149 668 1067 4.0 4.0 III 162 771 1129 4.2 4.2 IV 160 415 1606 6.0 6.0 Year 598 415 4727 17.6 17.6 1998 I 2/ 105 523 1061 3.9 3.9 II 2 140 700 1066 3.9 3.9 III 2 151 800 1157 4.3 4.3 IV 2/ 161 425 1597 5.9 5.9 Year 2/ 557 425 4881 18.1 18.1 1999 I 2/ 140 500 995 3.7 3.7 Year 2/ 600 400 4785 17.5 17.5 Total poultry: 1996 5123 975 26761 100.8 90.1 1997 I 1313 1212 6379 23.9 21.2 II 1339 1379 6899 25.8 23.0 III 1491 1327 6886 25.7 22.9 IV 1503 1029 7105 26.4 23.8 Year 5646 1029 27269 101.8 90.8 1998 I 2/ 1425 1183 6593 24.5 21.8 II 2 1378 1335 7058 26.1 23.3 III 2 1483 1435 7044 26.0 23.2 IV 2 1593 1082 7308 26.9 24.2 Year 2/ 5879 1082 28004 103.6 92.5 1999 I 2/ 1435 1130 6950 25.6 22.7 Year 2/ 6037 1055 29041 106.5 94.9 Egg supply 1/ ------------------------------------------------ Production Beginning Breaking Imports Total Year stocks egg use supply ------------------------------------------------ Million dozen Total eggs 1996 6,371.3 11.2 --- 5.4 6,387.9 1997 I 1,591.5 8.5 --- 1.9 1,601.9 II 1,594.5 6.5 --- 1.5 1,602.5 III 1,606.3 6.3 --- 1.6 1,614.3 IV 1,667.4 8.2 --- 1.9 1,677.5 Year 6,459.75 8.5 --- 6.9 6,475.2 1998 I 3/ 1636.8 7.4 --- 1.5 1,645.7 II 3/ 1640.0 7.9 --- 1.0 1,648.9 III 3/ 1665.0 10.0 --- 1.0 1,676.0 IV 3/ 1690.0 10.0 --- 1.0 1,701.0 Year 6631.8 7.4 --- 4.5 6,643.7 1999 I 3/ 1665.0 10.0 --- 1.0 1,676.0 Year 6765.0 10.0 --- 4.0 6,779.0 Shell eggs: 1996 6371.3 0.8 1,510.8 3.5 4,864.8 1997 I 1,591.5 0.8 364.7 1.4 1,229.1 II 1,594.5 --- 406.1 1.1 1,189.6 III 1,606.3 --- 411.9 0.9 1,195.3 IV 1,667.4 --- 407.4 1.3 1,261.3 Year 6,459.75 0.8 1,590.0 4.7 4,875.2 1998 Year 6,631.8 --- 1,695.6 4.0 4,940.2 1999 Year 6,765 --- 1,785 3.5 4,983.5 1/ Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Shell eggs and approximate shell-egg equivalent of egg products. 3/ Forecast Egg utilization 1/ Exports Hatching Ending Consumption Year 2/ egg use stocks Total Per capita Million dozen Number Total eggs: 1996 253.1 863.8 8.5 5,262.4 237.8 1997 I 61.7 221.2 6.5 1,312.6 58.9 II 50.3 227.3 6.3 1,318.6 59.1 III 51.6 225.1 8.2 1,329.3 59.5 IV 64.2 221.2 7.4 1,384.8 61.8 Year 227.8 894.8 7.4 5,345.2 239.3 1998 I 3/ 60.0 226.9 7.9 1,350.9 60.2 II 3/ 57.0 235.0 10.0 1,346.9 59.9 III 3/ 57.0 235.0 10.0 1,374.0 60.9 IV 3/ 62.0 230.0 10.0 1,399.0 61.9 Year 3/ 236.0 926.9 10.0 5,470.8 242.9 1999 I 3/ 60.0 240.0 10.0 1,366.0 60.3 Year 3/ 243.0 970.0 10.0 5,556.0 244.5 Shell eggs: 1996 113.8 863.8 0.8 3,886.3 175.6 1997 I 24.6 221.2 --- 983.3 44.2 II 21.7 227.3 --- 940.6 42.2 III 24.2 225.1 --- 946.0 42.3 IV 29.0 221.2 --- 1,011.0 45.1 Year 99.5 894.8 --- 3,880.9 173.8 1998 Year 3/ 105.0 926.9 --- 3,908.3 173.5 1999 Year 3/ 110.0 970.0 --- 3,903.5 171.8 U.S. egg exports to major importers 1/ January - February Country 1996 1997 1997 1998 1000 dozen Japan 62,514 49,379 4,368 9,534 Canada 43,846 48,318 5,732 6,917 Mexico 46,575 46,765 7,419 15,621 Hong Kong 53,949 30,394 4,706 3,641 Netherlands 6,750 5,931 4,223 342 Germany 3,400 4,047 1,113 414 Jamaica 3,107 3,587 573 591 U. Arab Em. 6,406 3,454 1,153 876 Russia 740 3,332 125 12 Belgium 2,103 3,250 850 2 Korea 2,323 3,000 401 523 Czech Rep. 922 2,062 573 67 Ukraine 0 1,877 0 0 U.K. 1,849 1,804 327 123 Trinidad 1,439 1,773 225 376 Colombia 1,126 1,418 162 179 Nicaragua 2,308 1,054 159 20 Costa Rica 147 986 26 290 Malaysia 34 894 257 7 Singapore 529 759 79 122 Other 13,063 13,670 7,308 1,269 Total 253,129 227,754 39,779 40,925 1/ Shell and shell equivalent of egg products. U.S. mature chicken exports to major importers January - February Country 1996 1997 1997 1998 1000 lb. Hong Kong 115,698 180,860 30,976 12,256 Canada 35,765 44,249 4,605 13,012 Russia 8,071 31,485 2,723 14,732 South Africa 2,766 18,617 3,352 4,308 Japan 26,008 18,141 6,694 199 Haiti 7,473 13,340 2,097 1,603 Poland 3,754 12,830 3,074 2,507 Mexico 8,481 6,727 2,078 855 Korea 4,092 6,448 1,083 0 Surinam 5,492 5,556 722 980 Dominican Rep. 210 4,619 0 5,069 Jamaica 1,838 4,511 244 1,359 Singapore 4,194 3,928 1,131 233 New Caledonia 2,593 2,884 397 754 China 5,596 2,520 1,829 553 U. Arab Em. 2,309 2,104 153 4,486 Azerbaijan 1,558 2,077 1,377 540 St. Lucia 2,341 1,984 465 299 Saudi Arabi 721 1,786 99 716 Greece 1,837 1,750 137 1,688 Other 24,249 17,112 2,846 2,285 Total 265,045 383,528 66,079 68,435 Poultry and eggs costs and returns 1/ Production Wholesale costs Total Price Net Year Feed Total costs 2/ 3/ returns Market Eggs 1995: (cents/dozen) Year 28.8 47.0 67.5 76.5 8.9 1996: I 37.0 55.2 75.7 92.0 16.4 II 43.0 61.2 81.7 84.0 2.4 III 44.1 62.3 82.8 90.2 7.5 IV 34.3 52.5 73.0 99.4 26.4 Year 39.5 57.7 78.2 91.5 13.3 1997: I 32.7 50.9 71.4 88.1 16.7 II 35.6 53.8 74.3 73.7 -0.6 III 33.1 51.3 71.8 82.1 10.3 IV 32.5 50.7 71.2 91.0 19.8 Year 33.4 51.6 72.1 83.8 11.7 1998: I 30.5 48.7 69.2 82.5 13.3 II / 27.9 46.1 66.6 70.0 3.4 Broilers 1995: (cents/lb) Year 16.0 26.4 48.8 56.4 7.6 1996: I 19.6 29.9 53.5 56.3 2.8 II 21.5 31.9 56.0 61.0 5.0 III 23.6 34.0 58.8 64.2 5.4 IV 20.9 31.2 55.2 63.5 8.3 Year 21.4 31.7 55.9 61.2 5.4 1997: I 18.6 28.9 52.1 60.0 7.9 II 19.9 30.2 53.9 59.1 5.3 III 19.6 29.9 53.5 62.1 8.6 IV 18.8 29.1 52.4 54.1 1.7 Year 19.2 29.6 53.0 58.8 5.8 1998: I 17.9 28.3 51.3 56.4 5.1 II / 16.5 27.0 49.4 59.0 9.6 Turkeys 1995: (cents/lb) Year 21.9 35.6 60.8 66.2 5.4 1996: I 27.2 40.9 67.5 64.5 -3.0 II 30.2 43.9 71.2 65.8 -5.3 III 35.0 48.7 77.1 67.4 -9.8 IV 33.3 47.0 75.1 69.1 -5.9 Year 31.6 45.3 72.9 66.8 -6.1 1997: I 27.2 40.9 67.4 58.1 -9.3 II 28.2 41.9 68.7 65.0 -3.7 III 29.6 43.3 70.5 65.9 -4.6 IV 27.8 41.5 68.2 65.5 -2.7 Year 28.2 41.9 68.7 63.8 -4.9 1998: I 26.2 39.9 66.2 55.0 -11.2 II / 24.1 37.8 63.5 58.0 -5.5 1/ Estimated costs and prices are weighted by monthly production. 2/ Based on farm cost converted to wholesale market value. 3/ Wholesale prices used are the 12-metro egg price, 12-city weighted average broiler price, and a weighted average of 8-16 lb young hens and 14-22 lb toms in Central, Western and Eastern Regions. 4/ FORECAST. U.S. broiler exports to major importers January - February Country 1996 1997 1997 1998 1000 lb. Russia 1,881,273 2,056,367 345,418 399,559 Hong Kong 962,882 874,883 129,236 82,589 Mexico 218,203 248,332 36,690 42,534 Latvia 149,452 247,934 47,861 53,378 Japan 243,015 202,925 23,890 41,824 China 167,993 146,419 19,270 19,827 Poland 105,881 122,471 25,006 38,356 Canada 74,813 119,397 14,016 19,481 South Africa 54,105 85,628 9,735 19,051 Estonia 57,606 55,325 718 346 Jamaica 50,152 51,443 7,256 12,325 Singapore 49,655 34,845 6,692 3,260 Guatemala 16,618 22,081 4,249 3,873 Ukraine 33,014 19,981 4,106 207 United Arab Emira29,073 17,368 3,387 8,056 Haiti 12,986 17,179 2,372 3,787 N. Antilles 14,065 14,204 2,743 3,047 Romania 1,909 14,073 0 361 Georgia 2,587 14,026 0 23,776 Korea 20,580 13,337 1,311 1,205 Other 274,282 285,987 39,816 71,206 Total 4,420,144 4,664,204 723,773 848,047 U.S. turkey exports to major importers January - February Country 1996 1997 1997 1998 1000 lb. Mexico 167,694 196,678 27,433 26973.1 Hong Kong 25,487 125,625 17,272 5889.7 Russia 132,040 80,308 8,011 9801.5 Korea 22,665 24,722 2,638 313.2 Colombia 931 19,872 1,849 1513.5 South Africa 2,335 15,424 2,521 1805.6 Poland 23,061 12,565 6,929 2330.8 Japan 1,412 10,565 647 118.1 Taiwan 7,404 10,465 961 147.1 Singapore 917 8,271 945 132.3 Canada 6,487 6,712 801 1639.3 N. Antilles 160 5,502 510 99.6 China 2,583 5,005 304 306.1 Fr. Polynesia 704 4,746 458 70.0 W. Samoa 388 4,688 851 69.1 Latvia 627 4,537 81 1893.9 Greece 4,279 4,436 377 148.2 Saudi Arabi 818 4,182 71 151.6 Jamaica 1,743 3,659 495 167.5 United Arab Emira 621 3,550 83 28.9 Other 35,437 46,916 5,956 7299.4 Total 437,793 598,427 79,191 60,898 Hogs on farms, farrowings, and pig crops, United States --------------------------------------------- Inventory 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 --------------------------------------------- 1,000 Head March 1 inventory 57,350 58,465 56,340 55,838 60,070 Breeding 7,210 6,998 6,765 6,838 6,986 Market 50,140 51,467 49,575 48,996 53,084 Under 60 lb 18,780 19,251 18,790 18,575 20,129 60-119 lb 12,190 12,498 11,980 11,713 20,129 120-179 lb 10,430 10,594 10,095 10,032 10,787 180 + lb 8,740 9,124 8,710 8,676 9,418 June 1 inventory 60,715 59,560 57,150 58,262 Breeding 7,565 7,180 6,860 6,960 Market 53,150 52,380 50,290 51,302 Under 60 lb 22,125 21,270 20,245 20,337 60-119 lb 13,145 13,060 12,690 12,774 120-179 lb 9,825 9,865 9,795 10,131 180 + lb 8,055 8,185 7,560 8,060 Sept. 1 inventory 62,320 60,540 58,150 61,160 Breeding 7,415 6,898 6,765 6,947 Market 54,905 53,642 51,385 54,312 Under 60 lb 20,790 20,235 19,320 20,876 60-119 lb 13,960 13,532 12,780 13,528 120-179 lb 11,170 10,985 10,590 10,834 180 + lb 8,985 8,890 8,695 8,975 Dec. 1 inventory 57,904 59,990 58,264 56,141 60,915 Breeding 7,165 7,060 6,839 6,667 6,988 Market 50,739 52,930 51,425 49,474 53,927 Under 60 lb 19,173 19,556 18,881 18,439 20,104 60-119 lb 12,659 13,087 12,808 12,221 13,260 120-179 lb 10,212 10,941 10,702 10,291 11,179 180 + lb 8,695 9,346 9,034 8,522 9,384 Sows farrowing Dec.-Feb. 1/ 2,885 2,886 2,757 2,669 2,898 March-May 3,390 3,170 2,955 2,941 3,038 Dec.-May 1/ 6,275 6,056 5,712 5,610 5,936 June-August 3,107 2,976 2,758 2,899 2,997 Sept.-Nov. 2,997 2,815 2,717 2,931 June-Nov. 6,104 5,791 5,475 5,830 Pig crop Dec.-Feb. 1/ 23,368 23,851 23,161 23,264 25,164 March-May 27,984 26,373 25,040 25,491 Dec.-May 1/ 51,352 50,224 48,201 48,755 June-August 25,547 24,813 23,597 25,798 Sept.-Nov. 24,517 23,479 23,159 25,307 June-Nov. 50,064 48,292 46,756 51,105 Pigs per litter Dec.-Feb. 1/ 8.10 8.27 8.40 8.61 8.68 March-May 8.26 8.32 8.47 8.66 Dec.-May 1/ 8.18 8.29 8.44 8.64 June-August 8.22 8.34 8.56 8.72 Sept.-Nov. 8.18 8.34 8.52 8.64 June-Nov. 8.20 8.34 8.54 8.68 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ December preceding year. 2/ Intentions Production and commercial use of selected dairy products Change from: 1997 1/ 1996 1987-96 avg. Million pounds Percent Percent Production: Butter 1151.3 -2.0 -9.1 Cheese 7329 1.5 17.2 American 3285.5 0.1 12.9 Italian 2880.4 2.4 22.9 Other 1163.1 3.5 16.2 Cottage cheese 706.2 2.3 -12.5 Creamed 359.5 -0.2 -27.6 Lowfat 346.7 5.1 11.5 Canned milk 549.1 18.4 1.0 Nonfat dry milk 1217.6 14.7 21.5 Dry whole milk 122.1 -9.2 -22.3 Ice cream (mil. gal.) Regular 905.6 3.1 4.4 Lowfat 385.6 5.3 10.5 Commercial use: Butter 1107.9 -6.1 11.3 American cheese 3268.6 1.2 14.7 Other cheese 4365.5 2.9 20.5 Nonfat dry milk 895.4 -11.3 16.6 Canned milk 543.9 13.1 0.4 1/ Preliminary Milk production and factors affecting supply, 1975-97 January 1 invento Average Milk production Milk cows Replace- Replace- milk and heife ment ments cows Per cow Total Year that have heifers per 100 on farms calved 500 lb+ cows -------Thousand--------- Thousand Pounds Million pounds 1975 11,220 4,087 36.4 11,139 10,360 115,398 1976 11,071 3,956 35.7 11,032 10,894 120,180 1977 10,998 3,887 35.3 10,945 11,206 122,654 1978 10,896 3,886 35.7 10,803 11,243 121,461 1979 10,790 3,932 36.4 10,734 11,492 123,350 1980 10,758 4,159 38.6 10,799 11,891 128,406 1981 10,849 4,342 40.0 10,898 12,183 132,770 1982 10,986 4,547 41.4 11,011 12,306 135,505 1983 11,047 4,545 41.1 11,059 12,622 139,588 1984 11,059 4,533 41.0 10,793 12,541 135,351 1985 10,777 4,770 44.3 10,981 13,024 143,012 1986 11,116 4,709 42.4 10,773 13,285 143,124 1987 10,466 4,305 41.1 10,327 13,819 142,709 1988 10,311 4,122 40.0 10,224 14,185 145,034 1989 10,137 4,117 40.6 10,046 14,323 143,893 1990 10,015 4,171 41.6 9,993 14,782 147,721 1991 9,965 4,093 41.1 9,826 15,031 147,697 1992 9,728 4,131 42.5 9,688 15,570 150,847 1993 9,658 4,176 43.2 9,589 15,704 150,582 1994 9,528 4,144 43.5 9,500 16,175 153,664 1995 9,487 4,141 43.6 9,458 16,433 155,425 1996 9,416 4,104 43.6 9,361 16,479 154,259 1997 1 9,309 4,057 43.6 9,258 16,916 156,603 Average milk prices Milk cow Slaughter Eligible Manufac- Price Milk re- cow Year All for fluid turing received quired to prices 3/ market grade per head buy a cow ------------ Dollars Cwt Dollars per cwt 1975 8.75 9.02 7.63 412 47 21.09 1976 9.66 9.93 8.56 477 49 25.31 1977 9.72 9.96 8.70 504 52 25.32 1978 10.60 10.80 9.65 675 64 36.79 1979 12.02 12.20 11.06 1,040 87 50.10 1980 13.05 13.23 12.01 1,190 91 45.73 1981 13.77 13.95 12.72 1,200 87 41.93 1982 13.61 13.80 12.60 1,110 82 39.96 1983 13.58 13.75 12.61 1,030 76 39.35 1984 13.46 13.61 12.49 895 66 39.81 1985 12.76 12.90 11.72 860 67 38.31 1986 12.51 12.62 11.46 820 66 37.18 1987 12.54 12.66 11.37 920 73 44.80 1988 12.26 12.36 11.15 990 81 47.91 1989 13.56 13.66 12.38 1,030 76 50.11 1990 13.74 13.89 12.34 1,160 84 53.32 1991 12.27 12.30 11.05 1,100 90 51.50 1992 13.15 13.19 11.91 1,130 86 49.69 1993 12.84 12.88 11.80 1,160 90 50.14 1994 13.01 13.02 11.85 1,170 90 45.03 1995 12.78 12.80 11.79 1,130 88 38.12 1996 14.75 14.79 13.43 1,087 74 33.00 1997 1 13.36 13.40 12.16 1,095 82 36.93 Grain and other concentrate Alfalfa Dairy ration Milk/feed fed to milk cows hay prices Year value price Total Per Per cwt received ratio 2/ cow of milk by farmers Dollars Pounds Thousand --------Pounds---- Dollars per cwt tons per ton 1975 6.25 1.40 24,274 4,357 42.1 54.38 1976 6.30 1.53 25,083 4,545 41.7 60.81 1977 6.20 1.57 25,518 4,709 42.1 60.57 1978 6.08 1.74 26,018 4,803 42.8 52.25 1979 6.68 1.80 27,207 5,070 44.1 60.37 1980 7.42 1.76 28,433 5,260 44.2 72.00 1981 8.02 1.72 28,513 5,220 42.9 70.90 1982 7.45 1.83 29,661 5,380 43.7 72.73 1983 7.88 1.72 30,162 5,438 43.2 78.70 1984 8.16 1.65 28,449 5,253 42.0 79.48 1985 7.35 1.73 28,891 5,427 41.8 73.67 1986 7.00 1.79 29,913 5,534 41.8 64.85 1987 6.81 1.84 29,607 5,736 41.6 65.97 1988 7.74 1.58 29,853 5,820 41.2 82.51 1989 8.20 1.65 29,602 5,845 41.0 95.98 1990 7.98 1.71 32,402 6,397 43.7 92.56 1991 7.73 1.58 30,934 6,192 41.7 78.96 1992 7.68 1.69 31,572 6,417 41.6 75.45 1993 7.73 1.64 31,952 6,664 42.4 86.67 1994 7.98 1.62 32,469 6,840 42.3 93.97 1995 7.88 1.63 31,997 6,771 41.2 88.09 1996 9.30 1.58 31,665 6,777 41.1 94.12 1997 1 8.67 1.54 NA NA NA 110.11 1/ Preliminary. 2/ Pounds of average concentrate ration equal in value to 1 pound of milk. 3/ Utility grade, Omaha 1965-87, Wisconsin auctions 1988 and after. NA = Not Available. Dairy products: Per capita consumption, United States, 1975-97 1/ Evaporated and Cheese condensed milk Fluid Year milk Bulk and and Butter American Other Cottage Canned, Bulk, canned, cream 2/ whole whole skim 1975 261 4.7 8.4 6.1 4.7 3.9 1.4 3.6 1976 260 4.3 9.0 6.7 4.7 3.7 1.3 3.6 1977 258 4.3 9.3 6.8 4.7 3.2 1.1 3.9 1978 254 4.4 9.6 7.4 4.7 3.1 1.0 3.5 1979 251 4.5 9.6 7.6 4.5 3.0 1.1 3.3 1980 246 4.5 9.6 7.9 4.5 2.8 1.0 3.3 1981 242 4.2 10.2 8.0 4.3 2.9 1.2 3.2 1982 236 4.4 11.3 8.6 4.2 2.7 1.3 3.0 1983 236 4.9 11.6 8.9 4.1 2.7 1.1 3.2 1984 238 4.9 11.9 9.6 4.1 2.4 1.3 3.7 1985 241 4.9 12.2 10.4 4.1 2.2 1.4 3.8 1986 240 4.6 12.1 11.0 4.1 2.2 1.4 4.3 1987 239 4.7 12.4 11.7 3.9 2.2 1.5 4.2 1988 235 4.5 11.5 12.2 3.9 2.1 1.4 4.2 1989 236 4.4 11.0 12.8 3.6 2.0 1.1 4.7 1990 234 4.4 11.1 13.5 3.4 2.2 1.0 4.8 1991 233 4.4 11.1 13.9 3.3 2.1 1.1 5.0 1992 231 4.4 11.3 14.7 3.1 2.1 1.1 5.2 1993 226 4.7 11.4 14.8 2.9 1.9 1.1 5.2 1994 226 4.8 11.5 15.3 2.8 1.8 0.8 5.5 1995 223 4.5 11.8 15.4 2.7 1.5 0.8 4.5 1996 224 4.3 12.0 15.7 2.6 1.5 0.8 4.1 1997 5/ 222 4.2 12.0 16.0 2.7 1.8 0.8 4.0 Frozen dairy products Dry products Year Other Dry Dry Ice Ice Sherbet frozen whole Nonfat butter- Dry cream milk products milk dry milk milk whey 4/ Pounds 1975 18.5 7.7 1.5 1.0 0.1 3.3 0.2 2.2 1976 17.9 7.3 1.5 0.8 0.2 3.5 0.2 2.4 1977 17.5 7.7 1.5 0.7 0.2 3.3 0.3 2.4 1978 17.4 7.7 1.4 0.8 0.3 3.1 0.2 2.4 1979 17.1 7.3 1.3 0.6 0.3 3.3 0.2 2.7 1980 17.5 7.1 1.3 0.3 0.3 3.0 0.2 2.7 1981 17.4 7.0 1.3 0.6 0.4 2.1 0.2 2.7 1982 17.6 6.6 1.3 0.6 0.4 2.1 0.2 2.9 1983 18.1 6.9 1.3 0.6 0.4 2.2 0.2 3.1 1984 18.2 7.0 1.3 0.6 0.4 2.5 0.2 3.2 1985 18.1 6.9 1.3 1.3 0.4 2.3 0.2 3.5 1986 18.4 7.2 1.3 0.9 0.5 2.4 0.2 3.7 1987 18.4 7.4 1.3 1.0 0.5 2.5 0.2 3.6 1988 17.3 8.0 1.3 1.0 0.6 2.6 0.2 3.5 1989 16.1 8.4 1.3 2.8 0.5 2.1 0.2 3.5 1990 15.8 7.7 1.2 3.6 0.6 2.9 0.2 3.7 1991 16.3 7.4 1.1 4.3 0.4 2.6 0.2 3.6 1992 16.3 7.1 1.2 4.4 0.5 2.8 0.2 3.8 1993 16.1 6.9 1.3 5.0 0.4 2.5 0.2 3.8 1994 16.1 7.6 1.4 4.9 0.4 3.5 0.2 3.6 1995 15.7 7.5 1.3 4.9 0.4 3.5 0.2 3.4 1996 15.9 7.6 1.3 3.9 0.4 3.8 0.2 3.4 1997 5/ 16.2 7.9 1.3 3.3 0.4 3.4 0.2 3.4 1/ Based on total population except for fluid products (resident population). 2/ Product weight of beverage milks, fluid creams, egg nog,and yogurt. 3/ Includes mellorine. May not be comparable across time. 4/ Includes modified whey products. 5/ Preliminary Milk cows and production by State and region, 1995-97 State and region Milk cows Milk per cow 1995 1,996 1997 1/ 1995 1996 1997 1/ Thousands Pounds Northeast 1,748 1,738 1,728 16,316 16,355 16,573 Maine 40 40 40 16,025 16,200 16,525 New Hampshire 20 19 19 16,300 17,053 17,263 Vermont 157 156 157 16,210 16,468 16,567 Massachusetts 28 27 26 16,000 16,296 16,731 Rhode Island 2 2 2 14,773 15,600 16,000 Connecticut 32 30 30 16,438 16,633 16,967 New York 703 702 699 16,501 16,396 16,519 New Jersey 23 22 20 13,913 13,500 15,000 Pennsylvania 642 644 639 16,511 16,522 16,811 Delaware 10 10 10 14,500 14,583 15,149 Maryland 91 86 86 14,725 15,360 15,488 Lake States 2,415 2,367 2,282 15,700 15,736 16,209 Michigan 326 320 306 17,071 16,969 17,680 Wisconsin 1,490 1,449 1,393 15,397 15,442 16,057 Minnesota 599 598 583 15,708 15,786 15,798 Corn Belt 1,035 1,007 979 15,407 14,985 15,590 Ohio 289 285 280 15,917 15,298 15,768 Indiana 144 140 140 15,375 15,471 15,636 Illinois 161 154 147 14,857 15,162 15,694 Iowa 251 249 244 16,135 15,197 16,340 Missouri 190 179 168 14,158 13,659 14,077 Northern Plains 338 325 310 13,888 13,932 14,229 North Dakota 64 62 55 13,094 12,968 12,764 South Dakota 118 112 105 13,398 13,161 13,181 Nebraska 74 69 69 14,797 15,217 15,072 Kansas 82 82 81 14,390 14,634 15,864 Appalachian 524 496 472 14,092 13,754 14,392 Virginia 129 126 122 15,116 14,325 15,238 West Virginia 21 20 18 12,667 12,600 14,778 North Carolina 86 81 76 16,314 15,901 16,566 Kentucky 162 153 145 12,469 12,157 12,517 Tennessee 126 116 111 13,849 13,940 14,360 Southeast 323 311 314 14,889 15,119 15,207 South Carolina 27 26 26 14,481 14,654 15,077 Georgia 100 97 97 15,550 15,320 15,340 Florida 162 156 160 14,698 15,391 15,481 Alabama 34 32 31 14,176 13,563 13,484 Delta States 194 186 177 12,098 11,737 11,689 Mississippi 55 51 47 12,909 12,902 13,489 Arkansas 60 57 53 12,200 12,053 12,094 Louisiana 79 78 77 11,456 10,744 10,312 Southern Plains 498 495 481 14,892 14,899 14,642 Oklahoma 97 97 96 13,433 12,938 13,281 Texas 401 398 385 15,244 15,377 14,982 Mountain 759 798 827 18,342 18,801 19,274 Montana 21 20 19 15,000 15,350 15,526 Idaho 232 256 272 18,147 18,496 19,092 Wyoming 6 6 6 14,100 14,050 13,450 Colorado 83 84 84 18,687 19,440 19,988 New Mexico 191 195 202 18,969 19,246 19,856 Arizona 114 121 127 19,561 20,446 20,976 Utah 88 91 91 16,739 17,000 16,923 Nevada 24 25 26 18,128 18,800 18,346 Pacific 1,628 1,643 1,690 19,948 20,016 20,521 Washington 266 264 264 19,932 19,996 20,095 Oregon 97 93 90 17,289 17,290 17,889 California 1,254 1,276 1,325 20,211 20,267 20,851 Alaska 1 1 1 17,000 16,875 16,667 Hawaii 10 9 10 13,654 13,723 12,178 United States 9,458 9,361 9,258 16,433 16,479 16,916 1/ Preliminary State and region Milk production 1995 1996 1997 1/ Million pounds Northeast 28,524 28,419 28,640 Maine 641 648 661 New Hampshire 326 324 328 Vermont 2,545 2,569 2,601 Massachusetts 448 440 435 Rhode Island 33 31 32 Connecticut 526 499 509 New York 11,600 11,510 11,547 New Jersey 320 297 300 Pennsylvania 10,600 10,640 10,742 Delaware 145 140 153 Maryland 1,340 1,321 1,332 Lake States 37,916 37,246 36,988 Michigan 5,565 5,430 5,410 Wisconsin 22,942 22,376 22,368 Minnesota 9,409 9,440 9,210 Corn Belt 15,946 15,090 15,263 Ohio 4,600 4,360 4,415 Indiana 2,214 2,166 2,189 Illinois 2,392 2,335 2,307 Iowa 4,050 3,784 3,987 Missouri 2,690 2,445 2,365 Northern Plains 4,694 4,528 4,411 North Dakota 838 804 702 South Dakota 1,581 1,474 1,384 Nebraska 1,095 1,050 1,040 Kansas 1,180 1,200 1,285 Appalachian 7,384 6,822 6,793 Virginia 1,950 1,805 1,859 West Virginia 266 252 266 North Carolina 1,403 1,288 1,259 Kentucky 2,020 1,860 1,815 Tennessee 1,745 1,617 1,594 Southeast 4,809 4,702 4,775 South Carolina 391 381 392 Georgia 1,555 1,486 1,488 Florida 2,381 2,401 2,477 Alabama 482 434 418 Delta States 2,347 2,183 2,069 Mississippi 710 658 634 Arkansas 732 687 641 Louisiana 905 838 794 Southern Plains 7,416 7,375 7,043 Oklahoma 1,303 1,255 1,275 Texas 6,113 6,120 5,768 Mountain 13,913 15,003 15,940 Montana 315 307 295 Idaho 4,210 4,735 5,193 Wyoming 85 84 81 Colorado 1,551 1,633 1,679 New Mexico 3,623 3,753 4,011 Arizona 2,230 2,474 2,664 Utah 1,473 1,547 1,540 Nevada 426 470 477 Pacific 32,477 32,891 34,681 Washington 5,302 5,279 5,305 Oregon 1,677 1,608 1,610 California 25,344 25,861 27,628 Alaska 12 14 15 Hawaii 142 129 123 United States 155,425 154,259 156,603 1/ Preliminary Farrow-to-finish hog production costs and returns, 1,600 head annual sales, North Central Region 1/ Item May-97 Jun-97 Jul-97 Aug-97 Sep-97 Oct-97 Cash receipts: 2/ 55.15 55.04 56.42 52.88 48.04 45.19 Market hogs (94.25 lb) 3.18 3.01 3.00 2.90 2.62 2.48 Cull sows (5.75 lb) 58.33 58.05 59.42 55.78 50.66 47.67 Total Cash expenses: Feed-- 18.17 18.81 18.55 17.90 16.35 15.57 Corn (345.6 lb) 10.91 10.83 11.43 11.46 11.73 12.25 Soybean meal (70.6 lb) 3.19 3.22 3.19 3.20 3.21 3.23 Mixing concentrates (14.3 lb) 32.27 32.86 33.17 32.56 31.29 31.05 Total feed Other-- Veterinary and medicine 3/ 1.32 1.33 1.32 1.32 1.33 1.34 Fuel, lube, and electricity 1.66 1.67 1.69 1.63 1.66 1.64 Mach. and building repairs 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.52 1.51 Hired labor 4/ 2.88 2.85 2.85 2.87 2.86 2.86 Miscellaneous 2.41 2.42 2.42 2.43 2.43 2.43 Total variable expenses 42.03 42.63 42.94 42.32 41.09 40.84 General farm overhead 1.49 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.51 Taxes and insurance 0.85 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 Interest 2.36 2.44 2.44 2.44 2.44 2.44 Total fixed expenses 4.70 4.80 4.80 4.81 4.81 4.81 Total cash expenses 5/ 46.73 47.43 47.74 47.13 45.90 45.65 Receipts less cash expenses 11.60 10.62 11.68 8.65 4.76 2.02 Capital replacement 10.89 10.96 10.96 11.28 11.02 11.02 Receipts less cash expenses 57.62 58.39 58.70 58.41 56.92 56.67 and replacement 0.71 -0.34 0.72 -2.63 -6.26 -9.00 1/The feed rations and expense items do not not necessarily coincide with the experience of individual hog operations. 2/ Based on 94.25 lb of barrows and gilts liveweight and 5.75 lb of sows per cwt sold. 3/ Includes costs of feed medication. 4/ Based on .204 hours per cwt of liveweight hog marketed. 5/ Does not include a charge for family or operator labor Item Nov-97 Dec-97 Jan-98 Feb-98 Mar-98 Apr-98 Cash receipts: 2/ 43.07 39.52 34.42 34.24 33.43 33.42 Market hogs (94.25 lb) 2.29 2.29 2.13 1.74 1.75 1.75 Cull sows (5.75 lb) 45.36 41.81 36.55 35.98 35.18 35.17 Total Cash expenses: Feed-- 14.97 14.55 14.74 15.03 15.12 14.89 Corn (345.6 lb) 12.14 11.10 10.95 11.84 10.70 10.70 Soybean meal (70.6 lb) 3.23 3.23 3.21 3.23 3.26 3.28 Mixing concentrates (14.3 lb) 30.34 28.88 28.90 30.10 29.08 28.87 Total feed Other-- Veterinary and medicine 3/ 1.34 1.34 1.33 1.34 1.35 1.36 Fuel, lube, and electricity 1.63 1.62 1.71 1.70 1.71 1.73 Mach. and building repairs 1.53 1.53 1.54 1.54 1.56 1.54 Hired labor 4/ 2.84 2.84 2.84 2.94 2.94 2.94 Miscellaneous 2.43 2.44 2.44 2.44 2.44 2.44 Total variable expenses 40.12 38.65 38.76 40.06 39.08 38.88 General farm overhead 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 Taxes and insurance 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 Interest 2.44 2.47 2.47 2.47 2.47 2.47 Total fixed expenses 4.81 4.86 4.86 4.86 4.86 4.86 Total cash expenses 5/ 44.93 43.51 43.62 44.92 43.94 43.74 Receipts less cash expenses 0.43 -1.70 -7.07 -8.94 -8.76 -8.57 Capital replacement 11.02 11.05 11.05 11.08 11.08 11.08 Receipts less cash expenses 55.95 54.56 54.67 56.00 55.02 54.82 and replacement -10.59 -12.75 -18.12 -20.02 -19.84 -19.65 1/The feed rations and expense items do not not necessarily coincide with the experience of individual hog operations. 2/ Based on 94.25 lb of barrows and gilts liveweight and 5.75 lb of sows per cwt sold. 3/ Includes costs of feed medication. 4/ Based on .204 hours per cwt of liveweight hog marketed. 5/ Does not include a charge for family or operator labor. Hog breeding herd changes, United States ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Inventory change: December 1 breeding 1/ 7,165 7,060 6,839 6,667 6,988 December-February Sow slaughter 919 1,010 904 737 816 Stag/boar slaughter 205 233 179 149 136 Gilts/boars added 1,169 1,181 1,009 1,061 950 % of inventory 16.3% 16.7% 14.8% 15.9% 13.6% March 1 breeding 7,210 6,998 6,765 6,842 6,986 March-May Sow slaughter 914 907 955 747 Stag/boar slaughter 243 235 188 155 Gilts/boars added 1,512 1,324 1,238 1,020 % of inventory 21.0% 18.9% 18.3% 14.9% June 1 breeding 7,565 7,180 6,860 6,960 June-August Sow slaughter 1,030 1,015 875 783 Stag/boar slaughter 242 232 168 148 Gilts/boars added 1,122 965 948 918 % of inventory 14.8% 13.4% 13.8% 13.2% September 1 breeding 7,415 6,898 6,765 6,947 September-November Sow slaughter 1,093 924 801 827 Stag/boar slaughter 225 204 158 139 Gilts/boars added 963 1,069 861 1,007 % of inventory 13.0% 15.5% 12.7% 14.5% Sows entering breeding December-February 1/ Sows farrowing 2,885 2,886 2,757 2,702 2,898 Sow slaughter 919 1,010 904 737 % of inventory 31.9% 35.0% 32.8% 27.3% Sows added 1,424 1,294 1,102 979 % of inventory 42.0% 40.8% 37.3% 33.3% March-May Sows farrowing 3,390 3,170 2,955 2,944 3,038 2/ Sow slaughter 914 907 955 747 % of inventory 27.0% 28.6% 32.3% 25.4% Sows added 631 713 758 761 % of inventory 20.3% 24.0% 27.5% 25.7% June-August Sows farrowing 3,107 2,976 2,758 2,958 2,997 2/ Sow slaughter 1,030 1,015 875 783 % of inventory 33.2% 34.1% 31.7% 26.5% Sows added 920 854 834 753 % of inventory 30.7% 30.3% 30.7% 25.7% September-November Sows farrowing 2,997 2,815 2,717 2,928 Sow slaughter 1,093 924 801 827 % of inventory 36.5% 32.8% 29.5% 28.2% Sows added 982 866 786 797 % of inventory 34.0% 31.4% 29.1% 27.5% ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ December preceding year. 2/ Estimate. 7-State cattle on feed, net placements, marketings, and other disappearance in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year On Other feed Placement Marketing Disappearance ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,000 % 1,000 % 1,000 % 1,000 % head Chg head Chg head Chg head Chg 1995 Jan. 8,031 -2.7 1,631 15.2 1,484 0.2 59 13.5 Feb. 8,119 -0.2 1,532 22.0 1,372 1.1 52 -8.8 Mar. 8,227 3.1 1,681 10.7 1,513 3.1 67 -6.9 1st Q 4,844 4,369 178 Apr. 8,328 4.6 1,403 7.1 1,437 0.5 61 -10.3 May 8,233 5.9 1,673 23.1 1,667 8.1 57 -26.9 June 8,182 8.9 1,356 21.8 1,754 7.5 50 -39.0 2nd Q 4,432 4,858 168 July 7,734 11.9 1,404 -7.6 1,698 9.5 49 25.6 Aug. 7,391 8.0 1,653 -6.1 1,815 13.3 40 -21.6 Sept. 7,189 3.5 2,173 13.5 1,594 4.5 46 4.5 3rd Q 5,230 5,107 135 Oct. 7,722 5.9 2,278 1.5 1,529 1.7 51 8.5 Nov. 8,420 5.4 1,804 9.9 1,478 7.9 61 -1.6 Dec. 8,685 5.9 1,446 7.5 1,412 -1.4 52 -35.0 4th Q 5,528 4,419 164 Annual 20,034 18,753 645 1996 Jan. 8,667 7.9 1,312 -19.6 1,626 9.6 49 -16.9 Feb. 8,304 2.3 1,441 -5.9 1,541 12.3 52 Mar. 8,152 -0.9 1,666 -0.9 1,476 -2.4 56 -16.4 1st Q 4,419 4,643 157 Apr. 8,286 -0.5 1,150 -18.0 1,613 12.2 65 6.6 May 7,758 -5.8 1,300 -22.3 1,747 4.8 58 1.8 June 7,253 -11.4 1,068 -21.2 1,696 -3.3 47 -6.0 2nd Q 3,518 5,056 170 July 6,578 -14.9 1,483 5.6 1,678 -1.2 46 -6.1 Aug. 6,337 -14.3 1,965 18.9 1,653 -8.9 37 -7.5 Sept. 6,612 -8.0 2,267 4.3 1,342 -15.8 51 10.9 3rd Q 5,715 4,673 134 Oct. 7,486 -3.1 2,536 11.3 1,431 -6.4 57 11.8 Nov. 8,534 1.4 1,953 8.3 1,418 -4.1 66 8.2 Dec. 9,003 3.7 1,423 -1.6 1,415 0.2 68 30.8 4th Q 5,912 4,264 191 Annua 19,564 18,636 652 1997 Jan. 8,943 3.2 1,663 26.8 1,728 6.3 65 32.7 Feb. 8,813 6.1 1,552 7.7 1,554 0.8 42 -19.2 Mar. 8,769 7.6 1,694 1.7 1,497 1.4 62 10.7 1st Q 4,909 4,779 169 Apr. 8,904 7.5 1,296 12.7 1,648 2.2 68 4.6 May 8,484 9.4 1,612 24.0 1,785 2.2 80 37.9 June 8,231 13.5 1,224 14.6 1,732 2.1 44 -6.4 2nd Q 4,132 5,165 192 July 7,679 16.7 1,751 18.1 1,852 10.4 42 -8.7 Aug. 7,536 18.9 2,111 7.4 1,755 6.2 42 13.5 Sept. 7,850 18.7 2,278 0.5 1,528 13.9 42 -17.6 3rd Q 6,140 5,135 126 Oct. 8,558 14.3 2,454 -3.2 1,545 8.0 77 35.1 Nov. 9,390 10.0 1,826 -6.5 1,429 0.8 69 4.5 Dec. 9,718 7.9 1,304 -8.4 1,499 5.9 68 4th Q 5,584 4,473 214 1998 Jan. 9,455 5.7 1,492 -10.3 1,689 -2.3 78 20.0 Feb. 9,180 4.2 1,290 -16.9 1,579 1.6 56 33.3 Mar. 8,835 0.8 1,421 -16.1 1,580 5.5 69 11.3 1st Q 4,203 4,848 203 Apr. 8,607 -3.3 1,358 4.8 1,609 -2.4 61 -10.3 May 8,295 END_OF_FILE