LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY July 17, 1998 July 1998, LDP-52 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY is published six times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Subsequent issues of LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY are scheduled for release at 3:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on August 17 and November 17, 1998. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock #LDP, $32/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTICE: This release replaces the July 16, 1998, release. The tables that follow the report text have been updated with trade data that was not available on the 16th. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Due to declining resources and the need to place more emphasis on longer term market relationships, the Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Situation and Outlook will be published 6 times in 1998. Subsequent issues are scheduled for August 17 and November 17. The release time has been standardized to 3 pm ET. The June Hogs and Pigs report indicates that producers are continuing to expand their herds as feed costs drop to relatively low levels. Corn and soybean meal prices are expected to be the lowest in several years over the next 18 months reflecting expected bumper crops this year. The June 1 market hog inventory was 6 percent above a year ago and producers reported intentions to increase June-November farrowings 3 percent from last year indicating an abundant supply of pork in 1998 and 1999. Higher broiler prices and lower feed costs are boosting broiler producers' returns to near record levels. Continuing placements of heavy feeder cattle indicate plentiful beef supplies over the next 6 months. However, the continuing placements of heifers on feed is delaying the rebuilding of the breeding herd. Cow slaughter is increasing across the South as dry weather brings deteriorating pasture conditions. Hog Inventory Increases Despite relatively unfavorable returns during January-April, producers continued to increase their herds. The June 1 hogs and pigs inventory totaled 61.6 million head, up 6 percent from a year ago and up 3 percent from March 1. Breeding hog numbers, at 7.02 million head, were up 1 percent from a year ago and up slightly from March 1. Producers indicated intentions to have 3 percent more sows farrow during June-November than actual farrowings a year ago. The increase was larger than anticipated given relatively unfavorable returns since late 1997. The largest percentage increases were in Oklahoma, Other States(States not reported individually), North Carolina, and Michigan likely reflecting that some new units may have begun production in these States. The June 1 market hog inventory indicates a 9-percent rise in pork production this year. The farrowing intentions along with the continuing increase in pigs per litter suggest about a 5-percent rise in production in first-half 1999. Pork Production To Rise Projected pork production for third-quarter 1998 is up 11 percent from last year. Hog slaughter will be up about 10 percent based on the December-February pig crop, which was 8 percent larger than a year ago. Slaughter as a percent of the pig crop is expected to be a little larger than a year ago and more in line with historical trends. Average dressed weights are expected to average about a pound heavier as weights are trending upward. The growth in pork production is expected to slow in fourth-quarter 1998, reflecting the 5-percent increase in the March-May pig crop and the June 1 market hog inventory weighing under 60 pounds. Pork production is expected to be up about 4 percent as average dressed weights may be down about a pound, from last year's large average of 190 pounds. Producers reported intentions as of June 1 to have 3 percent more sows farrow in June-August than a year ago, compared with a 1-percent increase reported in March. If the intentions are realized, the June-August pig crop would be up slightly over 3 percent, given the continued rise in pigs per litter. Based on the historical relationship between the June-August pig crop and first-quarter slaughter, January-March 1999 slaughter would be about 25.5 million head. First-quarter 1999 production is expected to be up about 3.5 percent with the average dressed weight up a pound from a year earlier. As of June 1, producers reported intentions to have 4 percent more sows farrow during September-November than actual farrowings a year ago. These intentions suggest a September-November pig crop increase of nearly 5 percent. The expected pig crop implies a second-quarter 1999 slaughter of about 25.3 million head, up about 7 percent. Slaughter as a percent of the pig crop in second-quarter 1998 was lower than the previous 5-year average. Given the lackluster returns scenario for hog producers over the next 18 months, the December 1998-May 1999 pig crop is expected to be about 3 percent above a year earlier. The expected pig crop suggests a pork production increase in second-half 1999 of 3-4 percent if the average dressed weight increases about a pound as expected. Hog Prices To Remain Low Increasing pork supplies and large supplies of poultry will keep hog prices in the $30 per cwt range over the next 18 months. At times the prices could slip into the high $20's especially during weeks of very high slaughter numbers. In some weeks, federally inspected slaughter will likely exceed 2 million head, near the levels reached in 1994, when prices averaged $31 per cwt. Hog prices this year are expected to average $36-$38 per cwt and about $2 lower in 1999. Increased population and larger exports will limit the pork per capita consumption rise to about 7 percent (3 pounds) for this year and another 4 percent (2 pounds) in 1999. Although exports are expected to increase 15 percent in 1998 from a year ago, most of the increase is due to attractive prices of lower value cuts. These products compete on the international markets with an abundant supply of dark meat poultry products. Composite retail pork prices in second-half 1998 are expected to average 3-4 percent lower than a year ago while hog prices are expected to be down about 27 percent. The farm-to-retail price spread is expected to widen. All the decline in retail prices will be from the farm value. As pointed out in the special article in this issue, declines in farm value take over a year to be passed on to consumers, while increases take about 4 months. Starting in fourth-quarter 1998 beef production is expected to decline and the decreases should continue through 1999. The abundant supplies of higher priced pork and chicken cuts will provide an alternative to consumers, especially if beef prices rise substantially. Pork Exports Surge Lower U.S. hog prices have driven up pork exports in the first 4 months of 1998. Through April, the U.S. exported more than 420 million pounds of pork products, up 45 percent from the same time last year. Unit values ($/lb.) of exports have fallen 19 percent, however, reflecting lower domestic hog prices and the fact that lower valued cuts comprise a greater percentage of U.S. exports this year. The outlook for U.S. exports for the balance of 1998 rides on the ability of developing countries, such as Russia and Mexico, to continue to import large quantities of trimmings and picnic cuts that characterized demand for U.S. exports in the first 4 months of this year. So far this year, the U.S. has exported 130 million more pounds of pork than in the same period a year ago. Seven percent of the 130 million pounds is attributable to increased exports to Canada, 15 percent to Mexico, 36 percent to Russia, 29 percent to Japan, 5 percent to Latin America, and 7 percent to Europe. In the last 3 years, U.S.-Canada trade has become increasingly characterized by large U.S. imports of Canadian hogs, with the U.S. exporting pork products back to Canada. Nevertheless, the U.S. remains a large net importer of Canadian pork products. Increased trade with Latin American countries (Colombia, Brazil, Panama, and the Bahamas) is likely, due to market development efforts of U.S. processors. European demand for U.S. pork products continues to show surprising strength despite forecasts of burdensome European supplies later this year. In Japan, U.S. exports in 1998 are up 30 percent over the first 4 months of 1997. This year-over-year comparison is biased, however, because in the first half of 1997, Japanese imports were severely restricted by the Safeguard mechanism, which protects domestic producers from excessive imports. Comparing average total monthly Japanese imports in 1998 (93 million lbs., product weight), to those of the most recent Japanese marketing year NOT distorted by the Safeguard (71 million lbs, product weight, in 1994/95, suggests a static market, at best. Continued recession and a depreciated currency foreshadow sluggish Japanese demand for U.S. pork products in 1998. Canadian Hog Imports Continue The strong flow of Canadian hogs into the U.S. through April continued, seemingly unimpeded by the March settlement of the Maple Leaf labor stoppage in Ontario. The favorable U.S.-Canadian exchange rate, labor unrest in Quebec, and construction delays of the Maple Leaf slaughter facility in Manitoba, suggest that Canadian hogs will need to come South. The flow may be slowed later this summer by the announced closing of the Thorn Apple Valley slaughter facility in Michigan, a major importer of Canadian slaughter hogs. Late Fall Cattle Market Strength The mid year cattle statistics that will be released on July 17 may provide conflicting indications. Nearby beef production levels will remain large, but a sharp pulldown in the breeding herd with few heifers retained for herd replacement provides reason for optimism by late fall. Southern U.S. beef producers are again under pressure to reduce inventories in line with rapidly declining forage prospects, particularly from Texas across to Florida. The Cattle report will provide an estimate for this year's calf crop and beef cow and heifer inventories. The July Cattle on Feed report will provide a better view on just how long these large beef supplies will continue, even as the cattle inventory declines. The implications of these reports will be featured in the August Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Situation and Outlook. Fed beef production will likely remain large through early fall, contributing to already burdensome supplies of total red meat and poultry and continued downward price pressure. However, much of this increased production is due to continued large heifer slaughter. Large placements of heavy weight cattle into feedlots have continued through this spring, suggesting the decision not to breed additional heifers in 1998 may have been made even earlier this year. Record fed cattle slaughter weights, due largely to the placement of heavy weight cattle on feed through spring, will continue to pressure the beef market. Lower prices, unfortunately, have led to a slower marketing pace than is needed to get feedlots current and reduce the downward price pressure. Although cattle inventories have been reduced and are likely to continue declining for several years, burdensome short-term beef supplies will have to be worked through before prices strengthen. Even then, record supplies of competing meats and a sluggish export market will hold down price gains. Reduced beef supplies and much stronger prices are likely to cause further erosion in beef's share of consumer expenditures on meat as competing meat supplies expand and are sold at relatively lower prices. Butter Prices Soar Soaring butter prices have sharply boosted cheese prices and promise summer milk prices will be substantially higher than earlier expected. Strong growth in milkfat demand, while milk production has been largely stagnant, shot butter prices to record highs in late June. Except for a brief period at the start of 1998, butter prices have been relatively high since mid-1997. Butter prices are expected to remain fairly high during the rest of 1998. However, current price levels may start to erode once milkfat users have a better idea of the market balance for the tight summer season and become a little freer about selling any supplies beyond their likely needs. Whether cheese prices follow butter prices down will depend on whether seasonal tightening is sufficient to withstand lower milkfat values. In any case, the seasonal peak in milk prices may come early this year. Milk Production Starts To Grow Spring milk output rose about 1 percent as declines in milk cow numbers eased and expansion in milk per cow picked up. Even so, conditions in feed markets during the first half had not improved enough to provide a firm foundation for growth in milk production. Neither returns over concentrate costs nor the milk-feed price ratio were better than moderate. Additionally, hay prospects have dimmed considerably as rains in the Northwest, Midwest, and Northeast cut the quality of the first-cutting of alfalfa and are now threatening the second cutting. Sharply higher farm milk prices and continued erosion in prices of concentrate feeds are expected to produce favorable, possibly quite favorable, milk-feed price relationships during the second half of 1998. If supplies of dairy-quality forage are adequate, these returns probably will stimulate expansion of strong dairy farms and accelerate growth in milk per cow. By late 1998, milk production could be on a solid expansion course. However, production response is unlikely to do much to alter summer milk markets. Uncertainty about forage supplies and the sharp price drops immediately preceding the price reversals may make for a cautious start to boosting milk production. For all of 1998, the milk-feed price ratio is projected to average about 1.8, consistent with the expected growth of almost 2 percent in milk per cow. Even so, the expected expansion would not represent any catching up after 2 years of below-trend growth, in part because the really strong ratios would come late in the year. Similarly, returns over concentrate costs are expected to increase 11 to 15 percent in 1998, returning to about the strong 1996 levels. But, milk cow numbers may decline almost 1 percent, similar to 1997. Strong production stimulus during the second half of 1998 could affect 1999 output considerably more than this year's. Milkfat Demand Booms Riding the continuation of a remarkable economic expansion, demand for milkfat remains very strong. Since mid-1997, very high butter prices have been required to ration the available supply of milkfat among potential users. Regular ice cream, fluid cream, cream cheese, and butter have all shown strength, although in some cases lower-fat versions of these products have been weak. However, some of this short-run demand strength may still reflect increased non-retail use spurred by the low butter prices of a few years ago. Food processing and away-from-home eating comprise most of the butter use (and likely a substantial share of other milkfat sales) and are very slow to respond to price changes. However, such a price reaction to the high prices may be coming--although more likely in 1999 than yet this year. Moderate growth in demand for cheese has contributed to demand for both milkfat and skim solids. However, demand for many skim-solids products has been lackluster. Fluid milk sales have slipped, as have sales of many perishable manufactured products. Nonfat dry milk use has been particularly weak. High cream prices have ruled out using nonfat dry milk to produce full-fat cheeses, and use of powder in other processed foods appeared to slip. Decreasing sales of lowfat or nonfat food products with a switch to higher fat products may have played a role in tightening milkfat markets and lowering nonfat milk use. Nonfat dry milk helped to maintain quality in these foods when fat was reduced. Demand for milkfat is projected to remain fairly strong during the rest of 1998, although skim solids demand may continue to struggle. Strong milkfat demand and weak skim solids demand should translate into moderately favorable demand conditions for farm milk, unless the slight apparent acceleration in first-half cheese demand continues. Above-quota Butter Imports Likely High butter prices have made it potentially profitable to import butter without a license and to pay the tariffs (totaling 83 cents per pound) for imports above the tariff-rate-quota (TRQ). Reportedly, such imports have occurred, but the total amount probably will be modest. Domestic butter markets in the European Union (EU) are somewhat tight and available export supplies are being absorbed readily by normal customers. Oceanic (Australia, New Zealand) production is seasonally almost non-existent, and stocks from the past season are fairly fully committed. These conditions make it risky to try to import beyond the TRQ because it may not still be profitable by the time the butter can be obtained and shipped here. New contracts under the Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP) have been modest, until recent awards made to Mexico for delivery later this year. Nonfat dry milk is readily available from a number of suppliers and there is little incentive to buy ahead in light of demand weakness in Asia. Contracts covering other products may be quite small, at least for shipment before the end of 1998. The very tight milkfat markets make it very difficult to obtain supply commitments for products containing milkfat. Price support purchases of nonfat dry milk have continued at a significant pace, because DEIP removals have been inadequate to clear the surplus of skim solids. Powder purchases are expected to continue for much of the summer. However, weekly purchases should start to shrink because of seasonal forces and the expected recovery in commercial use of skim solids. Summer Milk Prices Strong Summer milk prices will be much above a year earlier because of the late spring jumps in butter and cheese prices. Even if the Basic Formula Price (BFP) fails to hold its early summer level, average prices of all milk during the summer quarter are expected to average $1.50 to $2.25 per cwt higher than a year ago, following a rise of about $1 during the first half of 1998. The keys to autumn prices will be whether skim solids demand will pick up enough to support cheese prices and the extent of pipeline holdings of milkfat in late summer-early autumn. Conditions are projected to hold prices near year-earlier levels in late 1998, but a steep price slide is possible. Retail dairy prices were fairly stable during the first 5 months of 1998, averaging about 2 percent above a year earlier. The farm-to-retail price spread was about 2 percent below the greatly expanded levels of 1997. Retail dairy prices will be considerably higher in the second half of 1998, even if the farm-to-retail spread stays moderate. For all of 1998, retail prices are expected to average 2 to 4 percent above 1997. Broiler Prices Increasing Wholesale prices for whole broilers increased more than 10 percent between late May and early July, to nearly 5 cents above last year. Prices typically increase seasonally, but price increases have been stronger than normal. Extremely hot weather has probably slowed growth rates for broilers in some of the leading southern production areas. This has been reflected in weekly slaughter, with recent reports showing live weights about 2 percent lower than a year ago. Strength in the fast food market is reflected in stronger prices for skinless boneless breast meat and wings, up about 10 percent and 20 percent from a year ago, respectively, for May through early July. Slow growth in the export market and competition from large pork supplies, especially low value cuts, have kept more pressure on the dark meat parts prices. Leg quarters are near year ago prices, while legs and backs and necks are running about 5 percent below a year ago. Production is expected to rise less than 3 percent in 1998. Stronger production increases are expected in the fourth quarter as larger hatchery supply flocks and increased producer profitability make production increases more attainable and attractive. Producer net returns are expected to be near record levels this summer as prices have increased and feed costs are expected to be about 20 percent below a year ago. Wholesale-to-retail price spreads are expected to narrow, relative to the first quarter, as wholesale prices increase more rapidly than retail prices. Turkey Production Decreasing Turkey production is expected to decline 1 percent in 1998. Lower poult placements have begun to limit turkey slaughter numbers in the second quarter. After 2.5 years of negative returns for turkey producers, reductions in feed costs (27 percent below a year ago) and seasonal increases in turkey prices may allow producers to breakeven in July. Weaker export markets and competition from large pork supplies on the domestic market are expected to keep prices under pressure with the Eastern region hen price running about 8 cents per pound below a year ago since May. Egg Production Increasing Egg production increased nearly 3 percent in the first half of 1998 and is expected to maintain this pace for the year. Egg production is expected to continue increasing in 1999 but at a slower 2-percent rate. Lower feed costs are expected to offset lower wholesale egg prices, continuing the attractive net returns that started in 1995. Large increases in chicks hatched for table egg production signal a continuation of larger flock sizes for the next year. Layer-type chicks hatched for January through May are 3 percent above a year ago while eggs in incubators on June 1 were 10 percent above last year. Pullets hatched in April for placement in the layer-type hatchery supply flock were 30 percent lower than a year ago which may signal a slowdown in future table-egg laying flock expansion. Robust Broiler Trade Continues Through the first 4 months of 1998 broiler exports totaled 1.6 billion pounds, 18 percent above the same period in 1997. Most of the growth came from countries other than Russia, the largest market, but one that is only 2 percent higher in 1998. There was continued growth in exports to the Mexican and Canadian markets and exports have picked up strongly to Hong Kong after being very low at the beginning of the year. Exports of other chicken products continued to show strong growth as exports for the first 4 months of 1998 were 150 million pounds, up 13 percent from a year ago. Most of the increase came in exports to Canada, but shipments were also higher to Russia, the Middle East, and South Africa. These rising exports more than offset falling shipments to Hong Kong and Japan. Exports of eggs and egg products through April were up 1 percent from the previous year. Shell egg exports were up due chiefly to higher shipments to Canada and Mexico, while exports of egg products ran about even with the previous year. Turkey exports continued to be considerably lower than the previous year, mostly due to depressed shipments to Hong Kong, the second largest market. Turkey exports are feeling the combined effects of a greatly reduced market for all poultry products in Hong Kong at the beginning of the year and strong competition from broilers, other chicken, and pork products in other markets. Forecasting Farm-to-Retail Pork Price Spreads by William F. Hahn Pork farm-to-retail price spreads set a number of record highs in a short period in 1997 and 1998. Before 1997, the largest farm-to-retail price spread occurred in November 1994 at 151 cents per pound. In March 1997 the spread hit 152.6 cents, a new high. Starting in September 1997 and running through February 1998, a new record was set every month except November. The spread has declined steadily from March to May, but is still above the pre-1997 nominal record (table 1). Farmers and consumers often look at price spreads in an attempt to see who is benefiting when retail prices are high and/or farm prices are low. However, price spreads may not be a good indicator of which sector benefits. Price spreads alone do not tell how much of the difference between prices at the farm and at retail is profit and how much is cost, although most of the margin between farm and retail pork prices is costs for labor, packaging, and other factors. Also, price spreads are designed to measure the difference between the farm value of a hog and its value in the meat case. The retail pork cuts ERS uses to calculate pork price spreads are, with the exception of ham and bacon, unprocessed fresh cuts. Much of the pork consumers buy is further processed in products like luncheon meats or is bought through food service outlets. There is no guarantee that the mix of cuts ERS uses to calculate its price spreads matches the mix of cuts sold by retail stores. To the extent that price spreads overweight or underweight high-margin cuts, price spreads overstate or understate gross margins of retail stores. However, while the level of price spreads is not a good indicator of profitability of pork processing and retailing, economic research shows the price spread is helpful in predicting the future direction of hog and pork prices. Factors That Increase Price Spreads In theory, as well as in practice, the cost of processing hogs into retail pork cuts is an important part of the price spread. Since the costs rise over time due to inflation, pork farm-to-retail spreads have tended to grow over time. Over long periods of time, the price spread has grown at about the same rate as inflation generally. However, if cost inflation were the only factor determining the pork farm-to-retail price spread, prices spread would move up steadily through time and would set new records each year. Adjusted for inflation using the consumer price index (CPI), our recent nominal spreads are not actually record spreads. There were a number of higher real farm-to-retail spreads in the mid-1970's. Most of the month-to-month change in pork price spreads is related to the slow reaction of the retail prices to farm price changes. There is a lag between price changes at the farm and price changes at retail. So, spreads tend to narrow when farm prices increase and widen when farm prices drop. All of our record price spreads were set during times when farm hog prices were declining. Farm prices declined steadily between July 1997 and March 1998. There has been a great deal of economic research that has attempted to measure and explain the lag between farm price changes and retail price changes. In 1991, Hahn and Duewer looked at the lag between farm prices and retail prices using a fairly simple statistical model. (The results were first presented in the May 1991 Agricultural Outlook, in an article by Hahn.) The model was based on the hypothesis that retail prices follow farm prices and that in the long run the retail price is the farm price plus a mark up. The total mark up is the farm-to-retail spread. The statistical model was a "markup" model of retail pricing that allowed asymmetric price adjustment. That is, the reaction of the retail price to the farm price could depend on the direction that the farm and retail prices are headed. In particular, the analysis found that the retail price took much longer to adjust to farm price decreases than to farm price increases. The model estimates implied that farm price increases were fully passed on to consumers in 4 months while farm price decreases took over a year to work their way up to the retail price. The research was initiated in an attempt to explain the (then) record-high price spread of December 1990. In 1990, hog prices rose sharply from January to July and then trailed off sharply from July to December. Due to the sharp drop in hog prices in the last half of 1990, higher spreads were expected. Still, spreads at that time set new record highs. Part of Hahn and Duewer's evaluation was to see how well the statistical model did in predicting price spreads at and around December 1990. To make the test more difficult, they did not use data from 1989 or 1990 to estimate the model. The model was fairly accurate for 1989, 1990, and 1991 except that it underpredicted December 1990's record-setting spread. The Hahn and Duewer model was used to predict price spreads from January 1997 to May 1998, the latest data available. The actual and prediction ranges can be seen in figure 1. Like most statistical models, the actual predictions are an average. Therefore, figure 1 shows a prediction range as well as an actual predicted level. With the exception of January 1998, the model does a good job of tracking recent price spreads. This type of performance for a model that is almost 120 months out of date is remarkable. Because the model tracks price spreads fairly well, it indicates that pork price transmission has been stable throughout the 1980's and 1990's. Usually, the accuracy of statistical models improves when more observation are used, so it was updated by adding in all the data from the past 10 years. The newly-updated model has only slightly better ability to predict recent price spreads. The old model's mean squared prediction error for 1997 and 1998 was 3.7 cents, while the new model's was 3.3 cents for the same time period. (The lower the mean squared error, the better.) January 1998's spread remains an outlier (figure 2). The estimates produced in 1991 implied that farm price increases were much more quickly reflected in retail prices than farm price decreases. Updated estimates are similar, although they imply that price transmission is a bit slower and even more asymmetric than the original estimates. Farm price changes have very little effect on the retail price in the month they occur. About 20 percent of a farm price increase is passed on in the month it occurs while less than 5 percent of any farm price decrease is immediately passed on. A month after a farm price increase, 70 percent of it is reflected in the retail price, while only about 20 percent of a farm price decrease is passed forward within a month. Within 3 months, farm price increases are essentially fully passed on to consumers. In fact, the estimates imply that the retail price may overreact slightly to farm price increases. After 3 months, only about 40 percent of any farm price decrease would be passed on. Over a year is required for the retail price to fully adjust to farm price decreases. Price Transmission and Implications for Retail Prices and Spreads Despite the record spreads and the declining price of hogs earlier this year, the recent increase in hog prices, particularly May's 18-percent rise, means that the retail pork price will rise to reflect May's level no matter what happens to hog prices in June. The momentum imparted by May's farm price increase will likely drive July's retail price higher also, since June's farm price was only slightly below May's. If farm prices decline as expected in the near term, expectations are for even higher pork price spreads. Significant farm price declines could easily produce new, nominal pork price spread records in the remainder of 1998. References Hahn. "Pork Price Spread Sets Record." Agricultural Outlook, volume 174, May 1991, pages 11-12. Hahn and Duewer, "An Evaluation of Farm to Retail Price Spreads for Pork in 1990." Selected Paper for the Annual Meetings of the American Agricultural Economics Association, 4-7 August 1991, Manhattan, KS. Abstract published in American Journal of Agricultural Economics, volume 73, number 5, December 1991, page 1550. Table 1-- Recent farm-to-retail price spreads for pork Month Nominal Deflated spread spread Sep-97 156.4 97.0 Oct-97 161.7 100.1 Nov-97 161.4 99.9 Dec-97 164.7 102.1 Jan-98 177.4 109.8 Feb-98 179.9 111.1 Mar-98 175.5 108.2 Apr-98 169.3 104.2 May-98 160.4 98.5 Table 2-Retail price reactions to a one-cent change in the farm price in month 1 Month Farm price Farm price goes up one goes down cent one cent 1 0.2 -0.0 2 0.7 -0.2 3 0.9 -0.3 4 1.0 -0.4 5 1.0 -0.4 Outlook for Mexican Poultry Industry and U.S.- Mexican Poultry Trade by Milton Madison and David Harvey Part of an Emerging Markets technical assistance project with the Mexican government was the development of a series of market analysis reports on the domestic poultry industry in Mexico. The series included outlook reports for how the Mexican poultry industry interacts with poultry imports from the United States. The title of that report is, "Situacion y Perspectivas de la Produccion de Carne de Pollo en Mexico 1990-1997." The project entailed working with economists from the SAGAR, Mexico's equivalent of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, to decide what historical material to publish, how to make and present the forecasts and what factors would likely be most critical in the future of the Mexican poultry industry. Other articles on pork, beef, and dairy will be featured in coming issues of Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Situation and Outlook. Over the last decade the Mexican poultry industry has undergone a number of changes that have led to rapid growth in poultry production. Output reached 1.3 million metric tons in 1996, making Mexico one of the top poultry producing countries in the world. In Mexico, poultry production is now second only to beef, having surpassed pork in the early 1990's. Mexican Poultry Production At the present time, the Mexican poultry industry is rapidly moving from being comprised mostly of small scale or traditional broiler producers to a system that more closely follows the large scale, contract grower/processor arrangements found in the United States. Unlike the United States, however, where virtually all the production comes from large scale operations, Mexico still relies on small scale and traditional growers for about 30 percent of total broiler output. Three specific types of poultry production systems are currently in operation in Mexico: De traspatio - This is most often associated with small traditional subsistence farming operations. In this production system farmers grow out a small number of birds each year chiefly for their own consumption and for bartering with other local farmers. While some of these farmers may use modern broiler type birds, a number are using a traditional mixed-use breeds for egg production that are slaughtered for their meat after their laying cycle. These chickens usually run loose on the farm foraging for available food, and are fed some byproducts from the subsistance farm operations. This traditional production method accounts for an estimated 10 percent of Mexican chicken meat production. Semi technified - In this production system the farmer grows broilers for sale chiefly in local markets. These farmers follow many of the techniques used by larger growers, but may not have the resources to build a completely modern growout facility. They also may not be able to purchase balanced feeds with the vitamin and mineral supplements used by the large companies, or have the same level of expertise on efficiently producing market-sized birds. These operations have birds confined in pens but may not have fully enclosed houses. Feeds vary from whole grain to ground product that may lack some of the mineral and vitamin supplements used by more efficient producers. SAGAR estimates that this type of production system accounts for about 20 percent of total Mexican broiler production. Technified - Growers using this type of production are basically indistinguishable from broiler operators in the United States. These farmers use the same basic growout houses, the same technology, the same breeds of broilers, and much the same feed mixtures as U.S. growers. The only differences in the growout systems are those due to local labor or climate conditions. In addition, not all the broiler growout operations are contract growers for large processors. In Mexico, a number of the large broiler processors that use contract growers also have their own growout operations. These modern integrated broiler operations account for approximately 70 percent of domestic production. Chicken Consumption Increases Over the last decade chicken consumption in Mexico has followed much the same general pattern as in the United States. SAGAR reported that in 1990 chicken accounted for 28 percent of total Mexican meat consumption, but by 1996 it had increased to 35 percent. Most of the growth has come at the expense of pork consumption. The increase in chicken consumption has benefited from a number of factors. First, poultry meat has generally been less expensive than beef or pork. This was especially important when many consumers suffered declines in their real income when the government devalued the peso. Second, poultry meat is seen as a better dietary choice with a lower fat content than other meats. Third, the use of prepared meals has been growing as more women enter the Mexican labor market, and many of these meals use poultry meat. In 1990, per capita consumption of poultry meat was estimated at 9.7 kilos. By 1996, the estimated per capita consumption had increased to 14.9 kilos. This figure is forecast to increase further in 1997 and 1998 as a growing Mexican economy is expected to mean more spending on meats and prepared foods. These consumption figures were generated by the Mexican government and do not necessarily match those appearing in other USDA publications. Main Production Areas Broiler production in Mexico is not heavily concentrated geographically, with the top three producing states, Jalisco, Queretaro, and Veracruz, accounting for about 39 percent of total production in 1996. Most of the larger producing states are in the central portion of the country, near the major population center of Mexico City. However, new areas of production have been starting up in the northern desert areas (Sonora and Sinaloa) and in the tropical lowlands (Yucatan). These new areas are developing for a number of reasons. First, the transportation system for product distribution is not as developed as in the United States and production in these states serves the regional population. Second, these regions have ties to international trade. In Sinaloa and Sonora broiler production has increased with an eye towards exporting broiler products to the United States. In the Yucatan, poultry growers' access to feed grains and oilseeds produced in other areas of Mexico was limited due to transportation costs. To correct that problem, port facilities were built that allows access to competively priced imported grains and oilseeds from the United States. Also, by starting production operations that are isolated from other production centers, growers in this new area hope to remain free of diseases that may affect other areas. The disease-free status would enable them to be certified to ship their products throughout Mexico and to export to other countries. U.S.-Mexico Poultry Trade At the same time that domestic production is increasing, Mexican poultry imports, especially from the United States, are also rising. Aside from a dip in 1995, brought on by the devaluation of the peso, Mexican poultry meat imports from the United States have increased steadily in the 1990's. U.S. poultry exports to Mexico grew at an annual rate of 23 percent, going from 102 million pounds in 1990 to 452 million in 1997. In 1997, total poultry meat shipments from the United States to Mexico were 15 percent higher than the previous year and had an estimated value of $223 million. While broilers have made up the largest portion of the shipments, turkeys have been the most valuable part of the trade since 1993. Mexico is the largest market for U.S. turkey exports accounting for 40 percent of the value and 33 percent of shipments. Much of the increased trade in poultry products has come from a growing demand for lower-price poultry parts and mechanically deboned broiler meat and ground turkey meat. These meats are widely used in processed poultry products and are used in combination with beef and pork in sausage production. In 1997, U.S. broiler exports to Mexico were 248 million pounds, making it the third largest market, behind only Russia and Hong Kong, and the eighth largest market for other chicken products. In 1997, more detailed information became available on the specific types of broiler and turkey products that were being exported to Mexico. Broiler exports to Mexico were 3 percent whole birds, 23 percent fresh products, and 66 percent were listed as other broiler products. Broiler shipments to Mexico accounted for 5 percent of all U.S. broiler exports. U.S. turkey exports to Mexico totaled 89,000 metric tons in 1997 and most were in the other products category (ground meat, etc.), 64,000 metric tons or 71 percent of the total. Another 17 percent was fresh turkey meat and 7 percent prepared products. With the Mexican economy continuing to strengthen, the forecast is for continued growth in broiler and turkey imports in 1998 and 1999. Some weakness in the economy is possible if currently falling oil prices continue to reduce income for oil production companies. Mexico's Retail Poultry Industry Just as the production of broilers in Mexican is undergoing a transformation, the way that meat and poultry products are retailed is also rapidly changing. At the present time, most broilers are sold as whole birds for home consumption. However, not all the whole birds are presented the same way at the various retail outlets. The report by SAGAR lists the four main outlets or ways that processed poultry is sold in Mexico. Public market/Mercado Publico - Most of these public markets are owned by the state or local government who then rent out space to different vendors. Most of the birds sold in public markets have undergone minimal processing and the carcasses still have their heads, feet, and most of the viscera. Super Market/Supermercado - These supermarkets are not much different than those in the United States although they may not be quite as large. Here, whole broilers are sold with their heads, necks, feet, and most of the viscera removed, basically the same way a whole bird would be presented in the United States. Rotisserie/Rosticeria - These are sections of super markets or small specialty shops that sell cooked chicken. The birds are marketed with their heads, feet, necks, and viscera removed before cooking. Parts/Piezas - This form of marketing is found chiefly in the major cities. One difference in the Mexican broiler industry from the United States is that many of the large chicken processors also have their own retail outlets. These are small stores that sell whole and cut-up broilers. Live birds - While this form of sales accounts for less than one percent of all sales in the United States, live bird sales in Mexico still account for a major part of broiler consumption. SAGAR estimated that in the Mexico City metropolitan area, sales of live chicken accounted for 32 percent of broiler consumption. The estimates for Mexico City also show that 35 percent of the broilers were sold through rotisseries and supermarkets, 26 percent were sold through the public markets, and the remaining 7 percent were sold as chicken parts. Poultry Trade Up until the late 1980's, imports of poultry products were controlled by the Secretaria de Comercio y Fomento Industrial (SECOFI), the rough equivalent of the Department of Commerce, and there was a series of import quotas. One type of permit was needed to bring poultry imports into the central part of Mexico. A different permit was used for poultry products going into the northern border areas, and a third type was used by the meat processing industry to bring in poultry meat for use in processed products. The problem with this system was that a large amount of the poultry imported into the northern border areas was shipped further south into the central part of Mexico in more direct competition with domestic producers than was intended. With implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994, Mexico committed to set up a tariff-free quota system. The tariff-free quota was set at an initial level of 95,000 metric tons for processed poultry products. There were specific tariffs for five categories of poultry imports. Mexico also kept a special quota for the northern border areas that was set at 37,888 metric tons. As part of the NAFTA agreement, the quotas were to be increased by 3 percent a year over a 10-year period. Poultry products could be imported beyond the quota levels but they would then be taxed at an over-quota tariff rate. There were separate over-quota import tariff rates set up for live birds, poultry pieces and offal, and whole turkeys. According to the NAFTA, these over-quota tariffs would be phased out over a 10-year period, after which there would be no quota or over-quota tariffs on poultry imports. Mexican poultry imports have been considerably higher than the quotas called for under NAFTA. In 1997, the tariff-free quota amount under NAFTA was set to be less than 105,000 metric tons of poultry meat products. However, Mexico actually imported over 112,000 metric tons of broiler meat and over 95,000 tons of turkey and other chicken meat. Even with the amounts being well over the quota levels, the Mexican authorities have chosen not to apply the over-quota tariff rates. Future Growth and Impact on the U.S. Industry Mexico has a strong poultry industry and is developing the organizations that will allow it to continue to increase production and modernize. However, the industry does have some issues to contend with relating to disease control and inspection. Producers in cooperation with SAGAR have made progress in controlling the major poultry diseases. The large numbers of household chicken flocks makes disease control more difficult as vaccination and isolation of these chickens from wild birds is much more difficult. Producers in newly developed production areas are more isolated from population centers and are hoping to get regional disease-free status for their birds. SAGAR has developed a standard inspection system called TIF. Currently 11 slaughter plants are certified as meeting the Federal Inspection Model. This certification allows the products from these plants to be shipped throughout Mexico. Many of the other processing plants operate with similar technology and levels of hygiene, but have not undergone the TIF certification process and market their products regionally. If disease levels can be controlled and TIF inspection is harmonized with U.S. requirements, bilateral trade in poultry products would be possible. At this time it would appear advantageous for producers in Mexico to ship breast cuts to the U.S. while additional dark meat and offals would probably flow from the U.S. to Mexico. This would probably result in lower prices for breast meat in the U.S., which would benefit consumers, and slightly higher prices for other poultry parts, which would benefit producers. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Copies of this publication are available through the ERS Autofax System. Using a telephone attached to a fax machine, call 202-694-5700 and request Document Number 11515. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Principal Contributors - (202) 694-5180 Leland Southard, (Coordinator), Milton Madison (Poultry), David Harvey (Poultry Trade), Ron Gustafson, (Cattle), Shayle Shagam (Beef Trade), Mildred Haley (Pork Trade), Jim Miller (Dairy), Laverne Williams (Statistics) ----------------------------------------------------------------- TABLES Mexican poultry prices, live birds for slaughter Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June Pesos per kilogram 1990 3.96 4.10 4.03 3.99 3.31 2.69 1991 4.30 4.29 4.38 3.58 3.09 3.11 1992 4.34 4.31 4.24 4.65 4.37 4.22 1993 4.18 4.33 4.64 4.33 4.48 4.63 1994 4.58 4.64 4.75 4.62 4.77 4.76 1995 4.94 4.94 5.10 5.16 5.44 5.88 1996 7.56 8.05 8.46 8.29 8.47 8.62 Year July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Average Pesos per kilogram 1990 3.20 3.26 3.58 3.65 3.66 3.83 3.61 1991 3.06 3.04 3.91 4.07 3.69 4.16 3.72 1992 4.21 3.99 4.31 3.89 4.20 4.20 4.24 1993 4.63 4.43 4.34 4.49 4.44 4.86 4.48 1994 4.54 4.51 4.64 4.58 4.74 4.86 4.67 1995 5.91 5.77 5.71 6.12 6.47 7.10 5.71 1996 8.61 8.91 8.96 8.97 10.30 10.43 8.80 Source: 1990-1991 SNIM de la SECOFI y de 1992 a 1996 Delegaciones SAGAR Mexican poultry prices, wholesale carcass price Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June Pesos per kilogram 1990 5.01 5.15 5.13 4.96 4.34 3.71 1991 6.00 6.30 6.35 5.25 4.30 4.55 1992 4.95 5.08 4.70 5.16 5.31 5.13 1993 5.40 5.35 5.20 5.08 5.02 5.71 1994 6.37 6.20 6.20 5.74 5.88 6.46 1995 5.70 5.85 5.71 5.85 7.11 7.69 1996 8.60 10.30 10.10 9.70 10.40 9.00 Year July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Average Pesos per kilogram 1990 4.33 4.46 4.73 4.85 4.88 5.20 4.73 1991 5.05 5.13 5.60 5.25 4.60 5.35 5.31 1992 5.81 6.00 5.10 4.61 4.73 5.43 5.17 1993 6.02 4.92 5.27 5.20 5.39 6.32 5.41 1994 5.71 5.13 5.44 5.10 7.75 6.16 6.01 1995 6.82 6.20 6.43 5.72 7.84 6.84 6.48 1996 8.90 8.20 8.60 9.70 10.90 11.50 9.66 Source: 1990-1991 SNIM de la SECOFI y de 1992 a 1996 Delegaciones SAGAR Mexican poultry slaughter, number of birds, by month, at T.I.F. establishments Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June 1,000 1990 1991 4,727 4,470 4,319 4,608 4,525 4,016 1992 4,605 4,477 4,544 4,760 4,755 4,828 1993 7,901 8,871 10,304 8,773 8,794 8,821 1994 8,333 7,330 9,113 8,737 8,697 8,502 1995 8,990 8,947 10,290 9,363 9,618 9,737 1996 10,925 9,203 7,561 10,644 11,913 11,357 1997 14,815 15,979 15,170 14,501 Year July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total 1,000 1990 42,935 1991 4,325 4,207 3,984 4,602 4,226 4,360 52,369 1992 5,077 5,106 5,132 4,991 4,666 8,050 60,989 1993 8,290 8,610 8,486 7,799 7,979 9,068 103,697 1994 8,503 8,447 7,906 8,046 8,078 9,017 100,709 1995 9,253 9,326 9,188 10,119 8,664 8,599 112,095 1996 10,437 12,393 12,225 12,674 12,326 14,028 135,685 1997 Source: Direccion General de Salud Animal, SAGAR Mexican poultry production, in metric tons of carcass weight Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June 1990 47,947 37,742 81,438 61,938 57,116 64,359 1991 58,889 55,110 59,236 70,980 86,793 61,629 1992 69,622 62,562 65,878 67,257 75,028 80,711 1993 69,467 73,700 76,363 87,432 78,605 76,608 1994 75,652 78,476 86,533 97,187 93,222 88,613 1995 86,267 93,460 103,650 112,290 105,298 108,563 1996 92,716 94,676 103,029 105,302 106,199 100,914 1997 96,181 96,321 97,641 101,662 115,323 105,530 Year July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total 1990 60,595 56,739 57,823 56,928 73,771 94,031 750,427 1991 70,418 65,582 71,165 67,003 82,161 108,981 857,947 1992 84,469 76,371 81,283 74,704 73,585 87,025 898,495 1993 86,649 104,431 118,000 93,238 79,697 95,839 1,040,029 1994 94,626 96,134 99,022 102,073 108,276 106,194 1,126,008 1995 106,204 101,484 109,668 107,207 115,059 134,717 1,283,867 1996 105,026 108,830 103,779 108,948 113,172 121,775 1,264,366 1997 111,347 114,555 117,303 112,500 115,753 132,515 1,316,631 Source: CEA,SAGAR Mexican Poultry Production, in metric tons of carcass weight State 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Aquascalientes 16,768 16,345 16,728 18,897 28,554 Baja California 1,069 478 221 456 768 Baja California 722 179 248 294 525 Campeche 4,152 5,821 6,233 6,438 6,679 Coahuila 16,410 36,446 48,071 43,812 40,175 Colima 4,127 5,318 5,447 5,456 10,004 Chiapas 16,548 17,593 17,959 19,070 18,432 Chihuahua 4,911 5,352 4,216 4,499 6,230 Distrito Federa 2,135 1,877 1,869 2,203 3,361 Durango 73,760 74,190 62,818 70,338 84,775 Guanajuato 78,000 76,000 85,050 85,840 94,260 Guerrero 13,370 13,619 12,785 15,819 16,224 Hidalgo 33,883 37,387 36,781 34,411 36,919 Jalisco 118,595 133,213 136,631 168,431 161,962 Mexico 56,921 59,635 64,734 71,735 72,950 Michoacan 7,473 7,728 6,691 7,147 7,432 Morelos 37,624 46,425 54,452 40,780 36,532 Nayarit 12,736 13,035 12,794 12,488 14,092 Nuevo Leon 39,494 45,976 36,140 41,561 53,066 Oaxaca 4,688 4,555 4,185 4,572 4,527 Puebla 52,296 62,053 96,328 96,328 97,194 Queretaro 74,438 108,845 130,432 148,895 148,385 Quintana Roo 5,124 5,940 5,810 7,043 5,490 San Luis Potosi 21,069 22,015 16,133 17,447 17,401 Sinaloa 35,319 42,691 29,339 43,676 44,725 Sonora 12,183 12,820 3,917 910 2,040 Tabasco 14,433 14,274 12,603 16,401 14,003 Tamaulipas 1,186 3,066 3,423 3,772 1,124 Tlaxcala 810 1,005 1,114 786 908 Veracruz 72,611 89,766 132,610 208,357 146,216 Yucatan 63,027 74,311 77,841 83,311 86,485 Zacatecas 2,613 2,071 2,405 2,694 2,928 Total 898,495 1,040,0291,126,0081,283,8671,264,366 Source: CEA,SAGAR Mexican poultry imports, from the United States Broilers Turkeys Year Quantity Value Quantity Value Mil. lbs.(Mil.US$ Mil. lbs.(Mil. US$) 1990 84.9 37.4 15.7 8.7 1991 131.3 57.5 64.0 40.4 1992 159.3 69.0 98.8 64.1 1993 188.9 72.3 143.3 93.0 1994 220.9 82.4 147.1 103.7 1995 203.6 75.6 136.4 83.3 1996 218.2 90.2 167.7 111.5 1997 248.3 89.9 196.7 130.4 Other Chicken Totals Year Quantity Value Quantity Value Mil. lbs.(Mil.US$ Mil. lbs.(Mil. US$) 1990 1.4 0.7 101.9 46.9 1991 5.2 3.0 200.5 101.0 1992 5.0 2.1 263.0 135.1 1993 3.4 1.5 335.6 166.8 1994 3.3 1.5 371.3 187.6 1995 1.9 0.9 341.9 159.8 1996 8.5 3.9 394.4 205.6 1997 6.7 2.9 451.7 223.2 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Hog breeding herd changes, United States ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Item 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Inventory change: December 1 breeding 1/ 7,165 7,060 6,839 6,667 6,986 December-February Sow slaughter 919 1,010 904 737 816 Stag/boar slaughter 205 233 179 149 136 Gilts/boars added 1,169 1,181 1,009 1061 952 % of inventory 16.3% 16.7% 14.8% 15.9% 13.6% March 1 breeding 7,210 6,998 6,765 6842 6986 March-May Sow slaughter 914 907 955 747 836 Stag/boar slaughter 243 235 188 155 122 Gilts/boars added 1,512 1,324 1,238 1020 990 % of inventory 21.0% 18.9% 18.3% 14.9% 14.2% June 1 breeding 7,565 7,180 6,860 6960 7018 June-August Sow slaughter 1,030 1,015 875 783 Stag/boar slaughter 242 232 168 148 Gilts/boars added 1,122 965 948 915 % of inventory 14.8% 13.4% 13.8% 13.1% September 1 breeding 7,415 6,898 6,765 6944 September-November Sow slaughter 1,093 924 801 827 Stag/boar slaughter 225 204 158 139 Gilts/boars added 963 1,069 861 1008 % of inventory 13.0% 15.5% 12.7% 14.5% Sows entering breeding December-February 1/ Sows farrowing 2,885 2,886 2,757 2,702 2,898 Sow slaughter 919 1,010 904 737 816 % of inventory 31.9% 35.0% 32.8% 27.3% 28.2% Sows added 1,424 1,294 1,102 979 973 % of inventory 42.0% 40.8% 37.3% 33.3% 31.8% March-May Sows farrowing 3,390 3,170 2,955 2944 3055 Sow slaughter 914 907 955 747 836 % of inventory 27.0% 28.6% 32.3% 25.4% 27.4% Sows added 631 713 758 762 815 % of inventory 20.3% 24.0% 27.5% 25.8% 26.9% June-August Sows farrowing 3,107 2,976 2,758 2959 3034 Sow slaughter 1,030 1,015 875 783 % of inventory 33.2% 34.1% 31.7% 26.5% Sows added 920 854 834 753 % of inventory 30.7% 30.3% 30.7% 25.7% September-November Sows farrowing 2,997 2,815 2,717 2929 3036 2/ Sow slaughter 1,093 924 801 827 % of inventory 36.5% 32.8% 29.5% 28.2% Sows added 982 866 786 796 % of inventory 34.0% 31.4% 29.1% 27.5% ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ December preceding year 2/ Estimate Hogs on farms, farrowings, and pig crops, United States -------------------------------------------------------------- Inventory 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 -------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 Head Dec. 1 inventory /1 57,904 59,990 58,264 56,141 60,915 Breeding 7,165 7,060 6,839 6,667 6,986 Market 50,739 52,930 51,425 49,474 53,929 Under 60 lb 19,173 19,556 18,881 18,439 20,104 60-119 lb 12,659 13,087 12,808 12,221 13,264 120-179 lb 10,212 10,941 10,702 10,291 11,178 180 + lb 8,695 9,346 9,034 8,522 9,383 March 1 inventory 57,350 58,465 56,340 55,838 60,070 Breeding 7,210 6,998 6,765 6,842 6,986 Market 50,140 51,467 49,575 48,996 53,084 Under 60 lb 18,780 19,251 18,790 18,575 20,129 60-119 lb 12,190 12,498 11,980 11,713 12,750 120-179 lb 10,430 10,594 10,095 10,032 10,782 180 + lb 8,740 9,124 8,710 8,676 9,423 June 1 inventory 60,715 59,560 57,150 58,263 61,600 Breeding 7,565 7,180 6,860 6,960 7,018 Market 53,150 52,380 50,290 51,303 54,582 Under 60 lb 22,125 21,270 20,245 20,337 21,270 60-119 lb 13,145 13,060 12,690 12,774 13,547 120-179 lb 9,825 9,865 9,795 10,127 10,990 180 + lb 8,055 8,185 7,560 8,061 8,775 Sept. 1 inventory 62,320 60,540 58,150 61,163 Breeding 7,415 6,898 6,765 6,944 Market 54,905 53,642 51,385 54,219 Under 60 lb 20,790 20,235 19,320 20,876 60-119 lb 13,960 13,532 12,780 13,531 120-179 lb 11,170 10,985 10,590 10,835 180 + lb 8,985 8,890 8,695 8,976 Sows farrowing Dec.-Feb. 1/ 2,885 2,886 2,757 2,702 2,898 March-May 3,390 3,170 2,955 2,944 3,055 Dec.-May 1/ 6,275 6,056 5,712 5,646 5,953 June-August 3,107 2,976 2,758 2,959 3,034 /2 Sept.-Nov. 2,997 2,815 2,717 2,929 3,036 /2 June-Nov. 6,104 5,791 5,475 5,888 6,070 Pig crop Dec.-Feb. 1/ 23,368 23,851 23,161 23,264 25,164 March-May 27,984 26,373 25,040 25,471 26,714 Dec.-May 1/ 51,352 50,224 48,201 48,735 51,878 June-August 25,547 24,813 23,597 25,796 Sept.-Nov. 24,517 23,479 23,159 25,315 June-Nov. 50,064 48,292 46,756 51,111 number Pigs per litter Dec.-Feb. 1/ 8.10 8.27 8.40 8.61 8.68 March-May 8.26 8.32 8.47 8.65 8.74 Dec.-May 1/ 8.18 8.30 8.44 8.63 8.71 June-August 8.22 8.34 8.56 8.72 Sept.-Nov. 8.18 8.34 8.52 8.64 June-Nov. 8.20 8.34 8.54 8.68 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ December preceding year. 2/ Intentions Farrow-to-finish hog production costs and returns, 1,600 head annual sales, North Central Region 1/ Item Jul-97 Aug-97 Sep-97 Oct-97 Nov-97 Dec-97 Cash receipts: 2/ 56.42 52.88 48.04 45.19 43.07 39.52 Market hogs (94.25 lb) 3.00 2.90 2.62 2.48 2.29 2.29 Cull sows (5.75 lb) 59.42 55.78 50.66 47.67 45.36 41.81 Total Cash expenses: Feed-- 18.55 17.90 16.35 15.57 14.97 14.55 Corn (345.6 lb) 11.43 11.46 11.73 12.25 12.14 11.10 Soybean meal (70.6 lb) 3.19 3.20 3.21 3.23 3.23 3.23 Mixing concentrates (14.3 lb) 33.17 32.56 31.29 31.05 30.34 28.88 Total feed Other-- Veterinary and medicine 3/ 1.32 1.32 1.33 1.34 1.34 1.34 Fuel, lube, and electricity 1.69 1.63 1.66 1.64 1.63 1.62 Mach. and building repairs 1.50 1.50 1.52 1.51 1.53 1.53 Hired labor 4/ 2.85 2.87 2.86 2.86 2.84 2.84 Miscellaneous 2.42 2.43 2.43 2.43 2.43 2.44 Total variable expenses 42.94 42.32 41.09 40.84 40.12 38.65 General farm overhead 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.51 1.51 1.51 Taxes and insurance 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 Interest 2.44 2.44 2.44 2.44 2.44 2.47 Total fixed expenses 4.80 4.81 4.81 4.81 4.81 4.86 Total cash expenses 5/ 47.74 47.13 45.90 45.65 44.93 43.51 Receipts less cash expenses 11.68 8.65 4.76 2.02 0.43 -1.70 Capital replacement 10.96 11.28 11.02 11.02 11.02 11.05 Receipts less cash expenses 58.70 58.41 56.92 56.67 55.95 54.56 and replacement 0.72 -2.63 -6.26 -9.00 -10.59 -12.75 1/ The feed rations and expense items do not necessarily coincide with the experience of individual hog operations. 2/ Based on 94.25 lb of barrows and gilts liveweight and 5.75 lb of sows per cwt sold. 3/ Includes costs of feed medication. 4/ Based on .204 hours per cwt of liveweight hog marketed. 5/ Does not include a charge for family or operator labor. Item Jan-98 Feb-98 Mar-98 Apr-98 May-98 Jun-98 Cash receipts: 2/ 34.42 34.24 33.43 33.42 40.56 40.78 Market hogs (94.25 lb) 2.13 1.74 1.75 1.75 1.76 1.90 Cull sows (5.75 lb) 36.55 35.98 35.18 35.17 42.32 42.68 Total Cash expenses: Feed-- 14.74 15.03 15.12 14.89 14.66 14.51 Corn (345.6 lb) 10.95 11.84 10.70 10.70 10.17 9.32 Soybean meal (70.6 lb) 3.21 3.23 3.26 3.28 3.28 3.29 Mixing concentrates (14.3 lb) 28.90 30.10 29.08 28.87 28.11 27.12 Total feed Other-- Veterinary and medicine 3/ 1.33 1.34 1.35 1.36 1.36 1.36 Fuel, lube, and electricity 1.71 1.70 1.71 1.73 1.65 1.54 Mach. and building repairs 1.54 1.54 1.56 1.54 1.54 1.54 Hired labor 4/ 2.84 2.94 2.94 2.94 3.00 3.00 Miscellaneous 2.44 2.44 2.44 2.44 2.43 2.44 Total variable expenses 38.76 40.06 39.08 38.88 38.08 37.02 General farm overhead 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.50 1.51 Taxes and insurance 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.90 Interest 2.47 2.47 2.47 2.47 2.47 2.49 Total fixed expenses 4.86 4.86 4.86 4.86 4.85 4.89 Total cash expenses 5/ 43.62 44.92 43.94 43.74 42.93 41.91 Receipts less cash expenses -7.07 -8.94 -8.76 -8.57 -0.61 0.77 Capital replacement 11.05 11.08 11.08 11.08 11.08 11.08 Receipts less cash expenses 54.67 56.00 55.02 54.82 54.01 52.99 and replacement -18.12 -20.02 -19.84 -19.65 -11.69 -10.31 1/ The feed rations and expense items do not necessarily coincide with the experience of individual hog operations. 2/ Based on 94.25 lb of barrows and gilts liveweight and 5.75 lb of sows per cwt sold. 3/ Includes costs of feed medication. 4/ Based on .204 hours per cwt of liveweight hog marketed. 5/ Does not include a charge for family or operator labor. 7-State cattle on feed, net placements, marketings, and other disappearance in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Year On Other dis feed Placement Marketing appearance -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 % 1,000 % 1,000 % 1,000 % head Chg head Chg head Chg head Chg 1995 Jan. 8,031 -2.7 1,631 15.2 1,484 0.2 59 13.5 Feb. 8,119 -0.2 1,532 22.0 1,372 1.1 52 -8.8 Mar. 8,227 3.1 1,681 10.7 1,513 3.1 67 -6.9 1st Q 4,844 4,369 178 Apr. 8,328 4.6 1,403 7.1 1,437 0.5 61 -10.3 May 8,233 5.9 1,673 23.1 1,667 8.1 57 -26.9 June 8,182 8.9 1,356 21.8 1,754 7.5 50 -39.0 2nd Q 4,432 4,858 168 July 7,734 11.9 1,404 -7.6 1,698 9.5 49 25.6 Aug. 7,391 8.0 1,653 -6.1 1,815 13.3 40 -21.6 Sept. 7,189 3.5 2,173 13.5 1,594 4.5 46 4.5 3rd Q 5,230 5,107 135 Oct. 7,722 5.9 2,278 1.5 1,529 1.7 51 8.5 Nov. 8,420 5.4 1,804 9.9 1,478 7.9 61 -1.6 Dec. 8,685 5.9 1,446 7.5 1,412 -1.4 52 -35.0 4th Q 5,528 4,419 164 Annual 20,034 18,753 645 1996 Jan. 8,667 7.9 1,312 -19.6 1,626 9.6 49 -16.9 Feb. 8,304 2.3 1,441 -5.9 1,541 12.3 52 Mar. 8,152 -0.9 1,666 -0.9 1,476 -2.4 56 -16.4 1st Q 4,419 4,643 157 Apr. 8,286 -0.5 1,150 -18.0 1,613 12.2 65 6.6 May 7,758 -5.8 1,300 -22.3 1,747 4.8 58 1.8 June 7,253 -11.4 1,068 -21.2 1,696 -3.3 47 -6.0 2nd Q 3,518 5,056 170 July 6,578 -14.9 1,483 5.6 1,678 -1.2 46 -6.1 Aug. 6,337 -14.3 1,965 18.9 1,653 -8.9 37 -7.5 Sept. 6,612 -8.0 2,267 4.3 1,342 -15.8 51 10.9 3rd Q 5,715 4,673 134 Oct. 7,486 -3.1 2,536 11.3 1,431 -6.4 57 11.8 Nov. 8,534 1.4 1,953 8.3 1,418 -4.1 66 8.2 Dec. 9,003 3.7 1,423 -1.6 1,415 0.2 68 30.8 4th Q 5,912 4,264 191 Annual 19,564 18,636 652 1997 Jan. 8,943 3.2 1,663 26.8 1,728 6.3 65 32.7 Feb. 8,813 6.1 1,552 7.7 1,554 0.8 42 -19.2 Mar. 8,769 7.6 1,694 1.7 1,497 1.4 62 10.7 1st Q 4,909 4,779 169 Apr. 8,904 7.5 1,296 12.7 1,648 2.2 68 4.6 May 8,484 9.4 1,612 24.0 1,785 2.2 80 37.9 June 8,231 13.5 1,224 14.6 1,732 2.1 44 -6.4 2nd Q 4,132 5,165 192 July 7,679 16.7 1,751 18.1 1,852 10.4 42 -8.7 Aug. 7,536 18.9 2,111 7.4 1,755 6.2 42 13.5 Sept. 7,850 18.7 2,278 0.5 1,528 13.9 42 -17.6 3rd Q 6,140 5,135 126 Oct. 8,558 14.3 2,454 -3.2 1,545 8.0 77 35.1 Nov. 9,390 10.0 1,826 -6.5 1,429 0.8 69 4.5 Dec. 9,718 7.9 1,304 -8.4 1,499 5.9 68 4th Q 5,584 4,473 214 1998 Jan. 9,455 5.7 1,492 -10.3 1,689 -2.3 78 20.0 Feb. 9,180 4.2 1,290 -16.9 1,579 1.6 56 33.3 Mar. 8,835 0.8 1,421 -16.1 1,580 5.5 69 11.3 1st Q 4,203 4,848 203 Apr. 8,607 -3.3 1,358 4.8 1,609 -2.4 61 -10.3 May 8,295 -2.2 June 8,289 0.7 U.S. egg exports to major importers 1/ -------------------------------------------- January - April Country April 1997 1998 1000 dozen -------------------------------------------- Mexico 4,105 14,219 25,182 Canada 4,692 13,422 16,112 Japan 2,638 17,837 15,908 Hong Kong 2,464 8,665 8,332 Germany 253 1,996 1,230 Jamaica 195 1,102 1,153 U. Arab Emirate 32 1,652 1,012 Netherlands 358 5,264 888 Trinidad 178 428 775 Costa Rica 196 67 670 Korea 39 972 663 Nicaragua 247 277 648 United Kingdom 193 818 405 Belgium 0 1,438 389 Singapore 64 210 376 Colombia 47 300 362 Spain 91 140 333 Hungary 182 12 268 Dominican Rep. 1 16 253 Oman 0 79 244 Other 919 8,502 3,363 Total 16,894 77,419 78,565 -------------------------------------------- 1/ Shell and shell equivalent of egg products. U.S. turkey exports to major importers January - April Country April 1997 1998 1000 lb. Mexico 13,645 56,721 55,927 Russia 8,144 22,203 27,820 Hong Kong 4,159 40,320 12,216 Poland 313 7,451 3,978 Canada 717 1,532 2,827 Latvia 229 81 2,644 South Africa 259 5,316 2,166 Belgium 122 0 1,883 Colombia 206 4,728 1,775 Finland 347 484 1,693 Germany 181 1,251 1,104 Haiti 150 931 1,074 Taiwan 321 2,855 868 China 154 909 661 Korea 291 7,023 652 Switzerland 133 288 620 Georgia 0 0 567 United Kingdom 210 2,618 521 Saudia Arabia 189 1,008 489 Ghana 0 1,262 458 Other 1,527 17,769 6,809 Total 31,296 174,750 126,752 U.S. Broiler exports to major importers January - April Country April 1997 1998 1000 lb. Russia 142,743 647,266 675,133 Hong Kong 91,456 273,680 256,091 Mexico 21,548 77,918 90,109 Latvia 8,751 62,487 84,290 Japan 19,765 51,989 78,050 Poland 8,263 33,293 66,708 China 9,217 41,535 43,736 Canada 10,707 32,989 40,903 South Africa 5,582 23,869 32,754 Georgia 699 208 27,046 Jamaica 6,034 15,592 25,150 Germany 8,012 525 23,391 Belgium 2,781 103 17,600 United Arab E. 3,001 7,338 14,871 Estonia 8,956 12,210 9,504 Guatemala 1,971 8,101 8,820 Azerbaijan 3,798 4,336 7,886 Colombia 2,955 4,301 7,852 Panama 6,713 43 6,948 Singapore 1,896 12,390 6,821 Other 32,198 81,559 114,394 Total 397,049 1,391,735 1,638,059 U.S. dairy situation at a glance 1995 1996 1997 Milk production: Production (Mil. lb., 20 States) 131,780 131,343 133,861 Milk cow (Thou., 20 States) 7,862 7,818 7,759 Milk per cow (Lb., 20 States) 16,762 16,847 17,254 Production (Mil. lb., U.S. est.) 155,424 154,259 156,603 Milk prices (Dol/cwt): All milk 12.74 14.88 13.34 Milk eligible for fluid use 12.78 14.95 13.38 Manufacturing grade milk 11.78 13.38 12.18 Basic Formula Price (3.5% fat) 11.83 13.39 12.05 Slaughter Cow, WI (Dol/cwt): 38.11 33.00 36.93 Wholesale prices (Cts/lb): Butter, Central States 1/ 75.59 100.35 107.06 American cheese, WI assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 132.77 149.14 132.40 Barrels 127.33 141.72 125.23 Nonfat dry milk, Central States 108.58 122.16 110.01 Retail prices (1982-1984=100): Consumer Price Index 152.4 156.9 160.5 All food 148.4 153.3 157.3 Dairy products 132.8 142.1 145.5 Fluid milk and cream 132.3 142.4 144.9 Manufactured products 134.0 142.4 146.8 Dairy product output (Mil. lb): Butter 1,264.5 1,174.5 1,151.3 American cheese 3,131.4 3,280.8 3,285.2 Other-than-American cheese 3,785.5 3,936.7 4,043.8 Frozen products (Mil. gal) 2/ 1,229.6 1,240.9 1,281.4 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 95,633 95,013 96,218 Nonfat dry milk 1,233.0 1,061.8 1,217.6 Beginning stocks (Mil. lb): Commercial butter 12.2 15.8 13.4 Commercial American cheese 309.5 306.6 379.6 Other cheese 126.8 105.3 107.3 Manufacturers' nonfat dry milk 103.5 70.6 71.1 All commercial (milkfat basis) 4,263 4,099 4,704 All commercial (skim solids basis 5,712 5,037 5,753 All Government (milkfat basis) 1,497 69 10 All Government (skim solids basis 341 172 7 Commercial disappearance (Mil. lb): Butter 1,186 1,180 1,108 American cheese 3,149 3,230 3,269 Other-than-American cheese 4,126 4,243 4,366 Nonfat dry milk 923 1,009 895 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 154,835 154,990 156,629 USDA net removals (Mil. lb): Butter 78.5 0.1 39.2 Cheese 6.1 4.6 11.3 Nonfat dry milk 343.8 57.2 296.7 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 2,106 87 1,109 All products (skim solids basis 3 4,374 747 3,666 Imports (Mil. lb, milkfat basis 3/) 2,936 2,911 2,698 International market prices (Dol/mt): Butter 2,251 1,837 1,861 Nonfat dry milk 2,143 1,979 1,738 1/ Grade AA Chicago before June 1998. 2/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, and sherbert. 3/ Milk equivalent. NA = Not Available. U.S. dairy situation at a glance Feb-97 Mar-97 Apr-97 May-97 Milk production: Production (Mil. lb., 20 States) 10,321 11,641 11,446 11,869 Milk cow (Thou., 20 States) 7,774 7,763 7,763 7,765 Milk per cow (Lb., 20 States) 1,328 1,500 1,474 1,529 Production (Mil. lb., U.S. est.) 12,141 13,689 13,411 13,902 Milk prices (Dol/cwt): All milk 13.40 13.60 13.20 12.70 Milk eligible for fluid use 13.50 13.60 13.20 12.80 Manufacturing grade milk 12.50 12.40 11.60 10.90 Basic Formula Price (3.5% fat) 12.46 12.49 11.44 10.70 Slaughter Cow, WI (Dol/cwt): 35.06 38.94 40.60 40.50 Wholesale prices (Cts/lb): Butter, Central States 1/ 98.4 106.3 95.6 86.1 American cheese, WI assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 132.3 134.0 125.6 116.5 Barrels 127.5 126.5 121.3 114.3 Nonfat dry milk, Central States 114.9 115.8 114.4 109.8 Retail prices (1982-1984=100): Consumer Price Index 159.6 160.0 160.2 160.1 All food 156.5 156.6 156.6 156.6 Dairy products 146.2 146.1 145.7 145.4 Fluid milk and cream 146.1 145.8 144.7 144.9 Manufactured products 147.0 147.0 147.2 146.6 Dairy product output (Mil. lb): Butter 108.6 105.4 118.3 102.7 American cheese 267.1 285.5 279.6 294.6 Other-than-American cheese 310.1 352.5 318.9 347.3 Frozen products (Mil. gal) 2/ 95.3 112.3 114.5 123.5 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 7,777 8,430 8,516 8,709 Nonfat dry milk 93.0 114.1 127.7 132.7 Beginning stocks (Mil. lb): Commercial butter 23.0 35.6 49.9 86.3 Commercial American cheese 383.7 379.4 392.4 428.6 Other cheese 117.7 115.2 124.5 126.8 Manufacturers' nonfat dry milk 75.5 71.2 80.3 118.5 All commercial (milkfat basis) 5,042 5,235 5,752 6,900 All commercial (skim solids basis 5,964 5,823 6,166 6,990 All Government (milkfat basis) 8 13 17 20 All Government (skim solids basis 8 8 12 13 Commercial disappearance (Mil. lb): Butter 95.4 90.3 80.1 83.1 American cheese 271.9 274.8 244.3 278.4 Other-than-American cheese 330.3 367.2 335.9 363.2 Nonfat dry milk 83.1 87.8 69.6 78.7 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 11,976 13,251 12,176 13,344 USDA net removals (Mil. lb): Butter 0.8 0.9 1.9 3.1 Cheese 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.3 Nonfat dry milk 14.4 17.3 20.0 21.7 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 37 33 53 89 All products (skim solids basis 3 185 213 240 271 Imports (Mil. lb, milkfat basis 3/) 171 229 179 196 International market prices (Dol/mt): Butter 1,775 1,725 1,645 1,725 Nonfat dry milk 1,888 1,824 1,740 1,725 1/ Grade AA Chicago before June 1998. 2/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, and sherbet. 3/ Milk equivalent. NA = Not Available. U.S. dairy situation at a glance Jun-97 Jul-97 Aug-97 Sep-97 Milk production: Production (Mil. lb., 20 States) 11,419 11,437 11,213 10,671 Milk cow (Thou., 20 States) 7,765 7,765 7,757 7,752 Milk per cow (Lb., 20 States) 1,471 1,473 1,446 1,377 Production (Mil. lb., U.S. est.) 13,370 13,324 13,058 12,423 Milk prices (Dol/cwt): All milk 12.20 12.10 12.70 13.10 Milk eligible for fluid use 12.30 12.20 12.80 13.10 Manufacturing grade milk 10.80 10.80 11.90 12.70 Basic Formula Price (3.5% fat) 10.74 10.86 12.07 12.79 Slaughter Cow, WI (Dol/cwt): 38.50 40.35 37.00 36.25 Wholesale prices (Cts/lb): Butter, Central States 1/ 105.5 102.7 102.5 101.6 American cheese, WI assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 117.9 123.3 137.6 141.4 Barrels 112.6 113.3 129.4 133.6 Nonfat dry milk, Central States 107.9 107.7 107.2 107.1 Retail prices (1982-1984=100): Consumer Price Index 160.3 160.5 160.8 161.2 All food 156.6 157.0 157.6 157.9 Dairy products 144.1 143.3 143.4 143.5 Fluid milk and cream 143.6 142.0 141.7 141.4 Manufactured products 145.2 145.4 145.8 146.4 Dairy product output (Mil. lb): Butter 82.0 80.0 68.8 79.3 American cheese 286.2 285.3 260.0 261.2 Other-than-American cheese 337.2 327.9 336.5 343.0 Frozen products (Mil. gal) 2/ 131.0 132.0 119.2 103.3 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 8,321 8,274 7,669 7,690 Nonfat dry milk 120.1 111.7 90.2 77.4 Beginning stocks (Mil. lb): Commercial butter 102.9 93.0 84.9 68.9 Commercial American cheese 446.1 464.2 469.0 459.2 Other cheese 138.2 140.4 135.9 122.8 Manufacturers' nonfat dry milk 151.2 173.3 158.7 154.6 All commercial (milkfat basis) 7,548 7,532 7,354 6,813 All commercial (skim solids basis 7,693 8,160 7,984 7,703 All Government (milkfat basis) 37 21 31 32 All Government (skim solids basis 12 8 55 84 Commercial disappearance (Mil. lb): Butter 87.5 83.5 81.3 101.0 American cheese 268.5 280.3 272.1 287.9 Other-than-American cheese 349.4 355.4 373.5 381.4 Nonfat dry milk 65.8 103.3 59.8 63.9 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 13,348 13,465 13,609 13,309 USDA net removals (Mil. lb): Butter 4.5 4.7 3.6 3.9 Cheese 2.2 1.6 0.6 0.4 Nonfat dry milk 32.7 23.2 35.1 34.7 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 130 126 101 103 All products (skim solids basis 3 408 289 425 417 Imports (Mil. lb, milkfat basis 3/) 205 206 228 228 International market prices (Dol/mt): Butter 1,713 1,715 1,844 2,008 Nonfat dry milk 1,711 1,650 1,620 1,694 1/ Grade AA Chicago before June 1998. 2/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, and sherbet. 3/ Milk equivalent. NA = Not Available. U.S. dairy situation at a glance Oct-97 Nov-97 Dec-97 Jan-98 Milk production: Production (Mil. lb., 20 States) 10,977 10,591 11,118 11,316 Milk cow (Thou., 20 States) 7,750 7,737 7,732 7,730 Milk per cow (Lb., 20 States) 1,416 1,369 1,438 1,464 Production (Mil. lb., U.S. est.) 12,818 12,363 12,973 13,255 Milk prices (Dol/cwt): All milk 14.10 14.70 14.80 14.70 Milk eligible for fluid use 14.10 14.70 14.80 14.70 Manufacturing grade milk 13.20 13.60 13.60 13.50 Basic Formula Price (3.5% fat) 12.83 12.96 13.29 13.25 Slaughter Cow, WI (Dol/cwt): 35.40 33.06 34.75 36.31 Wholesale prices (Cts/lb): Butter, Central States 1/ 135.3 148.8 120.1 109.2 American cheese, WI assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 142.4 143.8 146.1 144.5 Barrels 136.3 134.9 129.2 134.7 Nonfat dry milk, Central States 106.9 107.1 107.4 105.9 Retail prices (1982-1984=100): Consumer Price Index 161.6 161.5 161.3 161.6 All food 158.2 158.5 158.7 159.9 Dairy products 145.7 147.0 147.8 148.3 Fluid milk and cream 145.3 147.0 147.0 NA Manufactured products 146.8 147.6 149.3 NA Dairy product output (Mil. lb): Butter 83.3 89.1 106.0 113.5 American cheese 260.0 248.5 278.6 283.2 Other-than-American cheese 355.5 346.0 349.3 332.5 Frozen products (Mil. gal) 2/ 99.7 80.5 80.6 83.3 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 7,624 7,214 7,801 8,009 Nonfat dry milk 72.6 75.2 102.0 103.7 Beginning stocks (Mil. lb): Commercial butter 43.4 26.2 15.0 20.5 Commercial American cheese 433.8 414.7 405.3 410.3 Other cheese 109.6 90.2 68.9 70.0 Manufacturers' nonfat dry milk 133.9 114.8 100.6 103.3 All commercial (milkfat basis) 5,939 5,205 4,697 4,889 All commercial (skim solids basis 7,097 6,456 5,968 6,080 All Government (milkfat basis) 19 16 19 18 All Government (skim solids basis 99 171 257 258 Commercial disappearance (Mil. lb): Butter 96.8 95.0 94.9 97.6 American cheese 279.6 259.8 276.0 282.0 Other-than-American cheese 404.5 396.1 384.9 337.0 Nonfat dry milk 66.8 58.7 70.2 65.4 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 13,596 12,886 12,848 12,803 USDA net removals (Mil. lb): Butter 3.7 5.4 5.9 4.0 Cheese 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.7 Nonfat dry milk 24.9 31.9 31.7 37.5 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 105 146 158 123 All products (skim solids basis 3 312 396 393 468 Imports (Mil. lb, milkfat basis 3/) 266 275 342 196 International market prices (Dol/mt): Butter 2,165 2,194 2,187 2,091 Nonfat dry milk 1,729 1,731 1,649 1,560 1/ Grade AA Chicago before June 1998. 2/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, and sherbet. 3/ Milk equivalent. NA = Not Available. U.S. dairy situation at a glance Feb-98 Mar-98 Apr-98 May-98 Milk production: Production (Mil. lb., 20 States) 10,434 11,722 11,591 12,067 Milk cow (Thou., 20 States) 7,726 7,725 7,735 7,750 Milk per cow (Lb., 20 States) 1,351 1,517 1,499 1,557 Production (Mil. lb., U.S. est.) 12,221 13,725 13,521 14,053 Milk prices (Dol/cwt): All milk 14.70 14.40 14.00 13 Milk eligible for fluid use 14.80 14.50 14.00 13 Manufacturing grade milk 13.50 12.90 12.10 11 Basic Formula Price (3.5% fat) 13.32 12.81 12.01 11 Slaughter Cow, WI (Dol/cwt): 37.44 37.25 37.70 38 Wholesale prices (Cts/lb): Butter, Central States 1/ 139.8 134.1 136.4 153 American cheese, WI assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 144.7 138.8 129.7 123 Barrels 143.6 135.3 125.1 121 Nonfat dry milk, Central States 105.2 104.7 104.3 103 Retail prices (1982-1984=100): Consumer Price Index 161.9 162.2 162.5 163 All food 159.4 159.7 159.8 160 Dairy products 147.7 148.4 148.5 148 Fluid milk and cream NA NA NA NA Manufactured products NA NA NA NA Dairy product output (Mil. lb): Butter 102.7 100.8 103.0 92 American cheese 261.1 285.2 289.7 298 Other-than-American cheese 313.0 360.0 351.6 360 Frozen products (Mil. gal) 2/ 91.7 109.4 115.4 119 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 7,600 8,297 8,521 8,624 Nonfat dry milk 97.0 107.3 120.4 122 Beginning stocks (Mil. lb): Commercial butter 34.0 44.1 55.7 67 Commercial American cheese 411.7 410.5 421.0 441 Other cheese 81.7 98.8 98.2 103 Manufacturers' nonfat dry milk 104.1 105.3 92.7 113 All commercial (milkfat basis) 5,306 5,640 5,990 6,460 All commercial (skim solids basis 6,245 6,415 6,375 6,859 All Government (milkfat basis) 15 16 20 28 All Government (skim solids basis 286 310 427 568 Commercial disappearance (Mil. lb): Butter 91.4 89.1 91.8 NA American cheese 263.1 275.8 272.4 NA Other-than-American cheese 312.5 383.9 368.1 NA Nonfat dry milk 64.0 96.7 77.1 NA All products (milkfat basis 3/) 11,922 13,518 13,182 NA USDA net removals (Mil. lb): Butter 2.2 1.3 1.0 1 Cheese 0.7 0.6 0.6 0 Nonfat dry milk 31.8 24.7 26.8 38 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 76 53 38 31 All products (skim solids basis 3 395 309 323 451 Imports (Mil. lb, milkfat basis 3/) 215 310 279 NA International market prices (Dol/mt): Butter 1,888 1,844 1,835 1,838 Nonfat dry milk 1,510 1,480 1,491 1,493 1/ Grade AA Chicago before June 1998. 2/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, and sherbet. 3/ Milk equivalent. NA = Not Available. U.S. dairy situation at a glance Jun-98 Milk production: Production (Mil. lb., 20 States) 11,546 Milk cow (Thou., 20 States) 7,753 Milk per cow (Lb., 20 States) 1,489 Production (Mil. lb., U.S. est.) 13,441 Milk prices (Dol/cwt): All milk 14 Milk eligible for fluid use 14 Manufacturing grade milk 12 Basic Formula Price (3.5% fat) 13 Slaughter Cow, WI (Dol/cwt): 37 Wholesale prices (Cts/lb): Butter, Central States 1/ 187 American cheese, WI assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 151 Barrels 146 Nonfat dry milk, Central States 103 Retail prices (1982-1984=100): Consumer Price Index 163 All food 160 Dairy products 148 Fluid milk and cream NA Manufactured products NA Dairy product output (Mil. lb): Butter NA American cheese NA Other-than-American cheese NA Frozen products (Mil. gal) 2/ NA All products (milkfat basis 3/) NA Nonfat dry milk NA Beginning stocks (Mil. lb): Commercial butter 72 Commercial American cheese 442 Other cheese 109 Manufacturers' nonfat dry milk 133 All commercial (milkfat basis) 6,665 All commercial (skim solids basis 7,189 All Government (milkfat basis) 26 All Government (skim solids basis 646 Commercial disappearance (Mil. lb): Butter NA American cheese NA Other-than-American cheese NA Nonfat dry milk NA All products (milkfat basis 3/) NA USDA net removals (Mil. lb): Butter 0 Cheese 0 Nonfat dry milk 26 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 9 All products (skim solids basis 3 300 Imports (Mil. lb, milkfat basis 3/) NA International market prices (Dol/mt): Butter 1,925 Nonfat dry milk 1,570 1/ Grade AA Chicago before June 1998. 2/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, and sherbet. 3/ Milk equivalent. NA = Not Available. U. S. milk production and related data Concentrate Milk-feed Year and Milk Milk Milk ration price quarter cows per cow production value ratio thousands pounds mil. pounds dol.per cwt 1995 JAN-MAR 9,469 4,113 38,943 7.62 1.65 APR-JUN 9,473 4,276 40,510 7.62 1.60 JUL-SEP 9,462 4,040 38,231 7.82 1.59 OCT-DEC 9,428 4,003 37,740 8.24 1.67 Avg. or total 9,458 16,433 155,424 7.82 1.63 1996 JAN-MAR 9,400 4,154 39,045 8.83 1.58 APR-JUN 9,376 4,226 39,626 9.51 1.51 JUL-SEP 9,349 4,026 37,642 9.70 1.64 OCT-DEC 9,320 4,071 37,946 9.16 1.67 Avg. or total 9,361 16,479 154,259 9.30 1.60 1997 JAN-MAR 9,295 4,192 38,961 8.79 1.54 APR-JUN 9,280 4,384 40,683 8.76 1.45 JUL-SEP 9,251 4,195 38,805 8.62 1.47 OCT-DEC 9,206 4,144 38,153 8.49 1.71 Avg. or total 9,258 16,915 156,602 8.67 1.54 1998 JAN-MAR 9,184 4,269 39,206 8.42 1.73 APR-JUN 9,200 4,465 41,078 8.15 1.67 Fluid milk sales by product, 1970-97 Lower Flavored Other Total Year Whole fat Skim whole flavored Butter- beverage milk milk milk milk milk milk milk Million pounds 1970 41,363 6,082 2,368 1,144 611 1,130 52,698 1971 41,042 7,022 2,552 1,287 538 1,153 53,595 1972 40,029 8,207 2,599 1,484 533 1,131 53,981 1973 38,473 9,100 2,921 1,549 571 1,065 53,679 1974 36,764 9,763 2,959 1,440 561 988 52,476 1975 36,188 11,468 2,480 1,366 719 1,011 53,232 1976 35,241 12,431 2,524 1,475 864 1,021 53,556 1977 34,036 13,426 2,617 1,446 1,062 1,007 53,594 1978 33,235 14,250 2,543 1,359 1,097 983 53,467 1979 32,480 15,043 2,604 1,236 1,129 939 53,431 1980 31,253 15,918 2,636 1,075 1,197 927 53,006 1981 30,397 16,662 2,583 843 1,288 926 52,699 1982 29,350 17,038 2,449 710 1,283 950 51,780 1983 28,871 17,638 2,474 749 1,374 1,006 52,112 1984 28,204 18,525 2,726 907 1,409 1,020 52,791 1985 27,760 19,812 3,009 882 1,430 1,046 53,939 1986 26,446 21,156 3,236 851 1,516 1,017 54,222 1987 25,622 21,722 3,403 829 1,607 1,039 54,222 1988 24,423 21,974 3,936 807 1,612 995 53,747 1989 22,743 23,769 4,988 767 1,606 907 54,780 1990 21,348 24,525 5,706 692 1,658 879 54,808 1991 20,847 25,133 6,023 675 1,726 858 55,262 1992 20,263 25,309 6,378 692 1,751 811 55,204 1993 19,535 24,920 6,871 693 1,783 783 54,585 1994 19,407 24,972 7,485 708 1,859 768 55,199 1995 18,734 24,295 8,391 707 1,921 742 54,790 1996 18,821 24,169 8,929 667 2,088 716 55,390 1997 18,527 23,858 9,195 680 2,167 695 55,122 Half Sour Total Total and Light Heavy cream cream all half cream cream and dip products Eggnog Yogurt products Million pounds 1970 591 76 111 222 1,000 61 169 53,928 1971 557 67 113 246 983 74 225 54,876 1972 540 60 111 264 975 103 270 55,331 1973 554 80 120 272 1,026 80 290 55,075 1974 522 85 116 310 1,033 81 310 53,899 1975 514 87 119 350 1,070 76 425 54,803 1976 530 76 129 350 1,085 87 465 55,193 1977 536 68 126 364 1,094 94 515 55,297 1978 537 70 123 374 1,104 94 545 55,210 1979 543 66 139 395 1,143 94 550 55,218 1980 551 55 159 408 1,173 95 570 54,844 1981 568 56 166 424 1,214 100 560 54,573 1982 569 62 172 451 1,254 104 600 53,738 1983 599 67 196 484 1,346 112 740 54,310 1984 656 74 221 523 1,474 116 840 55,221 1985 714 85 243 544 1,586 121 940 56,586 1986 759 103 260 565 1,687 121 1,000 57,030 1987 754 103 271 588 1,716 124 1,038 57,100 1988 744 99 290 602 1,735 128 1,090 56,700 1989 766 101 317 620 1,804 124 1,028 57,736 1990 740 88 325 625 1,778 123 997 57,706 1991 771 79 318 661 1,829 111 1,063 58,265 1992 806 88 336 694 1,924 115 1,081 58,324 1993 824 91 351 697 1,963 108 1,102 57,758 1994 821 85 373 717 1,996 109 1,216 58,520 1995 834 95 404 770 2,103 112 1,333 58,338 1996 882 106 453 767 2,208 100 1,283 58,981 1997 889 120 509 803 2,321 103 1,371 58,917 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 1998 1998 Jun. Apr. May Jun. /* 1000 Head Cattle: On feed - 7 States, 1, 8231 8607 8295 8289 Net placements 1180 1297 8230 NA Marketings 1732 1609 1681 NA Broilers: Eggs in incubators (00 600347 610725 612632 617122 Chicks hatched (000) / 704129 709360 739952 720000 Hatching egg layers /1 53137 54825 55442 54920 Pullets placed (000) 6008 6687 7062 NA Hvy-type hen slaughter 5501 5302 5902 6100 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators (00 36859 32821 33296 33779 Poults placed (000) 28381 25747 25677 27047 Eggs: Table egg prod.mil.Doz) 439.2 460.8 463.2 450 Table egg layers,(000) 244827 255071 250629 250576 Table eggs/100 layers 72.2 73.8 71.9 71.2 Chicks hatched (000) / 36861 39926 39602 40000 Lt.-type hen slaughter 9722 11146 8742 9000 ESTIMATED RETURNS 1998 1998 Jul. May Jun. Jul. /* Cents/lb. Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 61.34 66.71 64.28 62.87 Selling price 63.8 64.52 63.85 61.5 Net margin 2.46 -2.19 -0.43 -1.37 N. Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price /3 47.57 42.93 41.91 41.25 Selling price 58.66 42 41.57 35 Net margin 11.09 -0.93 -0.34 -6.25 Broiler Wholesale cost 54.53 49.53 48.55 48.37 Wholesale price 63.04 60.08 64.26 68 Net margin 8.51 10.55 15.71 19.63 Turkey Wholesale cost 70.86 63.69 62.53 60.94 Wholesale price 66.36 57.31 59.38 61 Net margin -4.5 -6.38 -3.15 0.06 Egg Wholesale cost 72.57 66.34 66.05 66.03 Wholesale price 84.11 62.12 72.27 72 Net margin 11.54 -4.22 6.22 5.97 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* estimate LIVESTOCK PRICES Jul-97 May-98 Jun-98 Jul-98 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 63.80 64.52 63.85 61.50 Nebraska Direct 64.77 64.40 63.26 61.00 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 38.63 41.57 42.19 42.00 Utility boning 37.75 39.30 39.61 39.50 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 94.75 92.71 81.23 78.25 600-650 lb. 89.43 85.86 77.40 74.25 750-800 lb. 82.21 73.95 72.96 71.50 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 87.86 80.04 77.79 75.25 700-750 lb. 79.57 70.72 69.13 67.75 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 58.80 41.74 41.40 35.00 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 58.66 42.00 41.57 35.00 Sows 6 Markets 47.70 30.37 30.54 27.25 Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 78.94 73.00 91.21 82.50 Ewes, Good 53.81 35.13 37.88 40.00 Feeder lambs, Choice 98.00 76.56 88.00 70.25 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES Jul-97 May-98 Jun-98 Jul-98 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 2.44 2.37 2.29 2.22 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 3.50 3.22 3.05 2.93 SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 273.58 160.03 168.55 179.00 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 106.00 108.00 96.50 NA Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 72.40 78.00 74.10 NA /* Estimates Wholesale Prices Jul-97 Apr-98 May-98 Jun-98 Jul-98 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700 lb. 102.38 98.32 102.09 100.38 99.50 Choice 1-3 700-850 lb. 102.43 97.61 101.49 99.58 98.00 Select 1-3 700-850 lb. 96.39 96.23 92.24 94.71 90.75 Canner-Cutter Cows 70.09 65.60 66.58 63.50 61.00 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 98.32 94.37 93.64 90.25 86.50 Importd bnls. beef 90% frz. 90.69 88.08 87.03 83.78 80.00 Hide & offal value 8.18 7.31 7.45 7.17 78.00 Veal carcass, 220-280 lb. 164.93 168.90 165.08 161.38 162.00 Pork, Central U.S. Pork cutout composite 78.21 54.25 63.94 62.45 57.75 Loins, 14-19 lb. BI 1/4" tr 122.53 102.51 130.64 113.13 105.50 Bellies, 12-14 lb. skin on 86.70 54.65 57.87 63.10 57.50 Hams, 20-27 lb. BI trmd. TS 68.37 42.82 46.62 50.80 44.75 Trimmings, 72% fresh 71.45 30.80 30.83 38.76 33.00 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. Down, Choice 171.75 144.83 141.98 189.03 162.00 55-65 lb., Choice 166.75 142.83 140.15 190.28 167.50 cents/lb. Broilers 12 City Avg. 63.04 58.82 60.08 64.26 68.00 Georgia dock 61.70 56.51 57.72 61.07 66.00 Northeast Breast, boneless 192.71 168.85 183.62 197.60 210.00 Breast, Ribs on 98.68 82.76 91.85 96.95 103.00 Legs, whole 48.39 44.91 43.67 45.18 49.00 Leg quarters 31.99 29.28 27.50 29.58 34.00 Turkeys Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 65.48 56.48 56.48 57.42 57.23 Hens, 8-16 lb. 68.59 55.49 55.49 58.14 58.68 Breast, 4-8 lb. 93.89 91.36 91.36 91.40 92.00 Drumsticks 27.60 31.20 31.20 30.70 25.71 Wings, full cut 35.63 91.36 91.36 91.40 28.14 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz !2 City Metro 84.11 85.11 85.11 76.85 62.12 New York 81.90 81.45 81.45 71.59 60.45 /* Estimates MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - 1998 July '97 July '98 Mar Apr May June July/* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 14779 14965 2081 2090 2124 2268 2268 Veal 193 145 23 20 19 20 18 Pork 9636 10653 1596 1566 1420 1450 1530 Lamb 152 148 26 25 19 19 17 Total red meat 24760 25911 3726 3701 3582 3757 3833 Broilers 15883 16206 2332 2380 2257 2375 2350 Other chicken 306 310 40 47 46 49 45 Turkeys 3131 3120 446 455 419 475 480 Total poultry 19321 19636 2818 2882 2722 2899 2875 Total meat & poultry 44081 45547 6544 6583 6304 6656 6708 Jan. - Jan. - 1998 July '97 July '98 Mar Apr May June July/* Commercial slaughter Thousand head Cattle 21381 20821 2894 2928 2958 3129 3125 Steers 10474 10294 1378 1422 1486 1610 1603 Heifers 6786 6743 998 971 962 975 969 Beef Cows 2012 1837 234 257 259 282 278 Dairy Cows 1705 1586 237 227 198 204 216 Bulls and stags 404 359 47 51 53 56 59 Calves 902 801 127 109 102 116 106 Sheep 2291 2222 386 384 281 294 260 Hogs 51451 56551 8477 8329 7572 7718 8155 Barrows & gilts 49341 54277 8152 7998 7269 7380 7790 Sows 1755 1960 284 287 266 291 310 Broilers 4517373 4571918 652071 659824 631518 675000 680000 Turkeys 164414 157485 22555 22527 20890 24000 25000 1998 July '97 Mar Apr May June July/* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 698 725 720 724 731 732 Calves 216 181 182 186 176 175 Sheep 67 69 67 70 68 69 Hogs 188 189 189 188 188 189 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 306 331 330 335 311 NA Pork 406 464 459 487 478 NA Bellies 52 55 54 59 59 NA Hams 100 76 79 80 92 NA Total chicken 712 639 676 689 666 NA Turkey 668 513 527 580 616 NA Frozen eggs 8 12 10 9 13 NA /* Estimates with exception of Cold Storage RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Jun-97 Feb-98 Mar-98 Apr-98 May-98 Jun-98 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 277.6 272.0 273.1 278.2 277.4 278.7 Beef - All Fresh 251.7 252.7 256.3 255.4 253.1 253.2 Ground Beef 140.8 139.8 141.3 141.9 141.1 138.8 Rib roast 279.8 273.8 272.6 275.1 275.6 265.2 T-bone steak 586.2 608.0 585.1 607.5 624.3 626.1 Pork 233.7 234.5 229.8 225.0 226.7 228.9 Bacon 269.4 262.3 253.9 244.4 243.8 245.7 Chops 357.3 330.0 315.1 324.3 326.0 329.4 Picnic 215.9 231.1 232.6 228.0 232.2 236.4 Chicken - Composite 151.9 150.6 150.3 151.7 151.5 155.1 Whole, fresh 99.3 100.7 103.2 102.9 103.2 101.6 Breast - bone in 205.2 197.6 198.8 201.7 200.7 208.1 Leg quarter 124.3 127.1 124.9 125.6 126.0 127.9 Turkey; whole frozen 107.8 100.1 99.6 97.2 95.7 99.1 Eggs, Grade A, Large 95.2 107.3 104.3 106.1 96.0 93.2 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 160.3 161.9 162.2 162.5 162.8 163.0 All food 156.6 159.4 159.7 159.8 160.3 160.1 All meat 144.5 142.4 142.2 140.8 141.0 141.5 Beef & veal 136.4 135.9 136.8 136.5 136.3 136.3 Pork 157.4 151.5 149.5 145.9 147.6 148.7 Poultry 156.7 155.3 155.1 154.3 155.6 155.5 Price Spreads Cents / retail lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 22.9 20.5 17.1 15.2 19.9 19.7 Wholesale to retail 121.5 123.5 126.1 126.6 120.4 124.2 Farmers share (%) 48.0 47.0 48.0 49.0 49.0 48.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 31.8 39.4 37.1 35.3 33.5 32.2 Wholesale to retail 110.7 140.5 138.4 134.0 126.9 130.9 Farmers share (%) 39.0 23.0 24.0 25.0 29.0 29.0 Poultry and eggs Wholesale to retail Broilers 88.5 90.2 88.9 93.3 89.4 89.9 Retail to consumer Turkey 32.0 37.2 35.2 31.2 29.4 30.7 Eggs 27.0 32.2 20.2 30.3 34.9 21.9 U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Jun-97 Jul-97 Aug-97 Sep-97 Oct-97 Nov-97 Dec-97 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 63411 56069 70247 63361 44285 52782 34175 New Zealand 88463 59673 44385 27339 22765 21041 35241 Canada 57249 44449 54741 59755 65991 67072 66223 Brazil 8664 8878 7425 6621 7042 6518 8845 Argentina 12272 12614 11558 8382 11253 12501 21031 Central America 4732 4031 8364 11650 7480 6994 7863 Other 9103 6793 4211 5090 3184 4692 8362 Total 243894 192509 200930 182197 161999 171600 181739 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 81243 91224 93797 94633 90304 99523 79340 Canada 21445 37274 27703 21781 22569 23627 23095 Mexico 27618 28905 29393 30499 34068 28555 35481 Korea, Rep. 19561 26064 28472 25413 25716 26133 11628 Caribbean 1018 1072 811 790 1476 1710 712 Other 17179 16643 22301 23201 19564 22071 22347 Total 168064 201182 202476 196318 193697 201619 172604 Cattle Imports Head Mexico 28243 20543 23149 26681 72261 145208 87689 Canada 93711 108286 99663 145505 141029 101258 80269 Over 700 lbs 87540 103471 91782 126593 119850 83585 71504 440-700 lbs. 2371 1744 3635 9197 11433 9001 3994 Total 121954 128829 122823 172186 213401 246466 167958 Cattle Exports Mexico 16839 22479 25874 22130 26853 17522 19985 Canada 2009 3296 3224 3244 3290 3698 6707 Total 19747 25937 29330 25828 31053 21745 27081 Lamb Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 3092 2288 1860 2075 2484 2468 3566 New Zealand 2505 1711 1899 1536 2017 1339 2106 Total 5768 4074 3784 3670 4609 4010 5710 Mutton Imports Total 1630 1470 1293 1080 1528 1207 2142 Lamb and mutton exports Total 298 457 545 489 240 478 580 Pork Imports Canada 34093 35982 37201 39660 41479 37544 38163 Denmark 6803 8689 9021 9764 8814 9606 10144 Poland 1099 1388 740 1050 1665 1243 2192 Hungary 737 616 805 543 873 265 783 Netherlands 526 790 84 977 930 504 1021 Other 2846 3933 2281 3288 4386 3395 4614 Total 46104 51397 50131 55281 58146 52557 56917 Pork Exports Japan 43789 42907 44292 36101 41170 44315 35554 Canada 12035 9754 9020 10070 11066 13017 11450 Mexico 6591 7855 7149 8255 9320 7848 10403 Caribbean 1250 716 925 1107 1323 1284 1383 Other 24682 28164 32546 33201 47527 34809 33323 Total 88347 89396 93932 88735 110406 101272 92113 Hog Imports Carcass wt.,thousa Canada 226761 261223 227802 248186 287815 282203 361135 Under 110 lb 81399 89110 71152 87849 93076 74177 79412 Total 227205 261683 227802 248186 287903 282203 361197 Hog Exports Total 3112 3170 1777 3313 9968 4451 4322 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 23844 16686 19241 15583 21865 21336 12591 Mexico 18994 20345 21800 21638 23932 18952 24134 Hong Kong 64997 84392 74098 74611 82389 70991 77908 Singapore 2670 2362 3185 3685 3478 2189 2886 Canada 10705 11509 11782 11031 10355 11375 8106 Former USSR 167109 157196 176683 159068 195196 181826 176455 Total 395738 398646 432935 391484 449590 402079 401604 Turkey Exports Mexico 16426 12671 16459 17376 17697 20706 24477 S. Korea 2107 2845 2423 2668 3325 1255 100 Hong Kong 8486 11058 11249 14818 9683 9143 12173 Total 54901 48067 48927 64878 53766 48899 57134 Shell Thousand dz. Egg Exports 8173 6959 7780 9459 11495 8896 8657 U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Jan-98 Feb-98 Mar-98 Apr-98 May-98 Beef & Veal Imports Australia 62724 36249 62706 69689 42643 New Zealand 53449 69972 66652 57856 63443 Canada 74167 64503 62376 56803 67461 Brazil 11652 6648 10504 10262 10230 Argentina 12767 8606 8451 7337 6612 Central America 3886 8037 7456 3022 2668 Other 4407 3878 4978 3946 4906 Total 223052 197893 223124 208914 197962 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 84595 87664 97216 99949 95319 Canada 19649 19991 21390 22138 21095 Mexico 25837 30535 30814 28941 31582 Korea, Rep. 6561 6211 15617 8231 11237 Caribbean 1881 1596 1926 1730 1550 Other 15320 13835 19811 15029 23641 Total 153843 159832 186774 176017 184424 Cattle Imports Mexico 58093 62163 81158 77627 59814 Canada 93987 114883 127660 128398 114013 Over 700 lbs 84809 102578 115540 110465 96810 440-700 lbs. 4949 7355 4961 8743 9825 Total 152080 177046 208892 206025 173827 Cattle Exports Mexico 18132 16294 15793 13244 11248 Canada 4678 5913 7544 6606 8831 Total 23425 22525 23874 21225 21601 Lamb Imports Australia 2975 2856 4733 3172 2556 New Zealand 2494 2918 4539 3284 2705 Total 5513 5839 9319 6466 5349 Mutton Imports Total 3874 2987 4676 4347 3088 Lamb and mutton exports Total 634 324 571 579 327 Pork Imports Canada 35080 32089 35345 36381 32382 Denmark 8346 12829 10735 9322 6677 Poland 1217 1651 2027 802 1673 Hungary 536 422 687 661 820 Netherlands 948 1216 826 870 769 Other 3372 3352 3671 3413 3589 Total 49500 51558 53290 51449 45910 Pork Exports Japan 36382 33896 39214 57660 43568 Canada 12790 12191 11505 9575 13869 Mexico 10532 9070 11265 11243 10962 Caribbean 1029 987 827 1244 1635 Other 26526 37228 52511 44379 45719 Total 87258 93371 115321 124100 115753 Hog Imports Canada 381649 321504 352390 302501 333389 Under 110 lb 87548 91993 122449 121504 99067 Total 381743 321510 352398 302597 333389 Hog Exports Total 15487 8423 6585 9767 9129 Broiler Exports Japan 23089 18736 16461 19765 18542 Mexico 19774 22760 26027 21548 24148 Hong Kong 25916 56673 82046 91456 84836 Singapore 1996 1265 1665 1896 792 Canada 10517 8963 10716 10707 10488 Former USSR 235540 166077 134161 143097 187609 Total 440624 407423 392963 397049 474640 Turkey Exports Mexico 11710 15263 15309 13645 19389 S. Korea 168 145 47 291 132 Hong Kong 3343 2547 2167 4159 2460 Total 29717 31181 34558 31296 41637 Shell Egg Exports 6370 7139 9189 9328 7757 U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Annual Totals Jan - Jan - 1996 1997 May '97 May '98 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 544,996 639,420 255,090 274,011 New Zealand 503,657 576,044 277,137 311,372 Canada 585,751 711,454 295,974 325,310 Brazil 86,901 94,766 40,773 49,296 Argentina 153,398 146,657 57,047 43,772 Central America 111,107 93,254 42,140 25,069 Other 86,363 81,344 39,909 22,115 Total 2,072,173 2,342,939 1,008,070 1,050,946 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 1,015,778 1,053,553 423,487 464,742 Canada 295,424 282,725 105,230 104,263 Mexico 172,246 312,583 98,065 147,708 Korea, Rep. 203,796 261,673 98,686 47,857 Caribbean 12,924 12,979 5,391 8,683 Other 178,046 212,165 68,859 87,635 Total 1,878,214 2,135,677 799,718 860,889 Cattle Imports Head Mexico 456,246 669,409 265,635 338,855 Canada 1,509,136 1,376,814 607,093 578,941 Over 700 lbs 1,374,583 1,200,642 516,317 510,202 500-700 lbs. 74,293 107,650 66,275 35,833 Total 1,965,448 2,046,352 872,735 917,870 Cattle Exports Mexico 115,249 235,121 83,439 74,711 Canada 40,722 41,189 15,721 33,572 Total 174,307 282,344 101,623 112,650 Lamb Imports Carcass wt., thousand lb. Australia 26,423 32,968 15,135 16,292 New Zealand 23,970 26,417 13,303 15,940 Total 50,701 60,428 28,803 32,487 Mutton Imports 21,751 22,607 12,257 18,972 -------------------------------------------------------------------- Customs Service Product wt., metric tons YTD imports under WTO - 7/06/97 7/06/98 % of Quota Canada 135,702 148,371 NA TRQ Countries 240,342 250,968 36 Australia 98,044 109,531 29 New Zealand 114,682 122,217 57 Argentina NA 3,678 18 Uruguay 11,512 6,042 30 -------------------------------------------------------------------- Apr-98 May-98 Jan - Jan - May-97 May-98 Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lb. Canada 437,397 434,228 170,106 171,277 Denmark 122,211 123,839 60,999 47,909 Poland 10,525 15,002 5,624 7,371 Hungary 8,761 8,702 4,081 3,126 Netherlands 8,479 8,118 3,286 4,628 Other 31,511 42,206 17,465 17,396 Total 618,884 632,095 261,562 251,708 Pork Exports Japan 500,518 461,946 173,819 210,718 Canada 94,374 125,325 48,913 59,931 Mexico 69,820 86,988 29,566 53,071 Caribbean 11,934 12,200 4,212 5,721 Other 293,259 357,154 122,902 206,362 Total 969,905 1,043,613 379,412 535,803 Hog Imports Head Canada 2,778,741 3,178,260 1,283,135 1,691,433 Under 110 lb 2,779,175 987,359 411,184 522,561 Total 2,779,175 3,179,578 1,283,399 1,691,637 Hog Exports Total 55,883 54,647 24,534 49,391 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 243,015 202,925 71,778 96,593 Mexico 218,203 248,332 98,537 114,257 Hong Kong 962,882 874,883 345,497 340,927 Singapore 49,655 34,845 14,391 7,614 Canada 74,813 119,397 44,532 51,391 Former USSR 1,881,273 2,058,882 845,350 866,485 Total 4,420,144 4,664,204 1,792,127 2,112,699 Turkey Exports Mexico 167,694 196,678 70,867 75,316 S. Korea 22,665 24,722 9,998 783 Hong Kong 25,487 125,625 49,015 14,676 Total 437,793 598,427 221,856 168,390 Shell thousand dz. Egg Exports 113,837 99,544 38,124 39,782 Annual Forecasts 1997 1998 1999 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 7,189 7,418 7,595 CPI-U, Annual % Change 1.9 1.7 3 Unemployment rate, % 5.0 4.6 5 3-Month T Bill,% 5.1 5.1 5 10-Year Bond,% 6.4 5.7 6 Production, million lb. Beef 25,384 25,765 23,825 Pork 17,244 18,727 19,550 Broilers 27,271 27,995 29,400 Turkeys 5,478 5,415 5,400 Total Red Meat & Poultry 76,322 78,765 79,010 Eggs, mil doz. 5,456 5,582 5,675 Milk 156,602 158,006 160,100 Commercial use (mf basis) 156,576 159,442 161,100 Net removals (mf basis) 1,108 552 900 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 66.9 68.7 63 Pork 48.7 51.9 54 Broilers 72.7 73.2 77 Turkeys 17.6 17.8 17 Total Red Meat & Poultry 208.6 213.9 214 Eggs, number 239 243 244 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 66.32 62-66 71-76 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt 76.19 74-79 82-89 Bng Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 34.27 38-41 44-48 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cw 51.36 35-38 34-37 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb 58.78 58-62 55-59 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 64.93 58-63 60-64 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 81.23 71-76 70-75 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 13.01 14.2-14.4 13.1-14.1 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 11.53 12.8-13.0 11.7-12.7 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 2,136 2,100 2,155 Beef & veal imports 2,343 2,644 2,800 Pork exports 1,044 1,200 1,200 Pork imports 633 600 570 Broiler exports 4,664 4,941 5,025 Turkey exports 598 532 600 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, May 1998 Quarterly 1997/99 Forecasts QI'97 QII'97 QIII'97 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 7,089 7,140 7,222 CPI-U, Annual % Change 2.4 1.1 2.0 Unemployment rate, % 5.3 4.9 4.9 3-Month T Bill,% 5.1 5.1 5.1 10-Year Bond,% 6.6 6.7 6.2 Production, million lb. Beef 6,107 6,416 6,603 Pork 4,192 4,090 4,196 Broilers 6,639 6,937 6,864 Turkeys 1,236 1,404 1,411 Total Red Meat & Poultry 18,428 19,082 19,287 Eggs, mil doz. 1,349 1,341 1,354 Milk 38,961 40,683 38,805 Commercial use (mf basis) 38,036 38,855 40,369 Net removals (mf basis) 97 272 330 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 16.3 17.3 17.1 Pork 11.8 11.6 12.0 Broilers 17.7 18.8 18.6 Turkeys 3.5 4.0 4.2 Total Red Meat & Poultry 49.9 52.3 52.5 Eggs, number 59.0 59.2 59.5 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 66.40 66.63 65.65 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt 69.44 75.88 80.44 Bng Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 32.02 37.05 35.20 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cw 51.06 56.41 54.45 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb 60.00 59.10 62.00 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 58.90 66.10 68.20 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 84.90 72.10 79.70 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 13.47 12.70 12.93 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 12.30 11.91 10.96 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 455 513 600 Beef & veal imports 536 716 576 Pork exports 195 273 272 Pork imports 158 150 157 Broiler exports 1,090 1,098 1,223 Turkey exports 128 149 162 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, May 1998 QIV'97 QI'98 QII'98 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 7,290 7,356 7,400 CPI-U, Annual % Change 2.5 0.5 1.6 Unemployment rate, % 4.7 4.7 4.5 3-Month T Bill,% 5.1 5.3 5.1 10-Year Bond,% 5.9 6.8 5.7 Production, million lb. Beef 6,258 6,215 6,475 Pork 4,766 4,687 4,440 Broilers 6,831 6,845 7,025 Turkeys 1,428 1,290 1,350 Total Red Meat & Poultry 19,525 19,271 19,505 Eggs, mil doz. 1,412 1,382 1,375 Milk 38,153 39,206 41,100 Commercial use (mf basis) 39,316 38,242 40,600 Net removals (mf basis) 409 252 100 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 16.2 16.7 17.4 Pork 13.3 12.7 12.2 Broilers 17.6 17.7 18.8 Turkeys 6.0 3.9 3.9 Total Red Meat & Poultry 53.9 51.7 53.0 Eggs, number 61.8 60.1 59.8 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 66.61 61.73 64.16 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt 78.98 75.49 74.00 Bng Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 32.80 38.28 39.15 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cw 43.53 34.74 39.50 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb 54.00 56.40 61.00 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 66.50 55.10 59.10 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 88.20 79.00 66.50 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 12.93 14.60 13.57 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 10.96 13.13 12.00 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 568 500 515 Beef & veal imports 515 644 715 Pork exports 304 296 330 Pork imports 168 154 150 Broiler exports 1,253 1,241 1,150 Turkey exports 160 100 120 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, May 1998 QIII'98 QIV'98 QI'99 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 7,440 7,482 7,524 CPI-U, Annual % Change 2.3 2.4 2.3 Unemployment rate, % 4.6 4.7 4.7 3-Month T Bill,% 5.1 5.2 5.3 10-Year Bond,% 5.8 5.8 5.8 Production, million lb. Beef 6,900 6,175 5,825 Pork 4,650 4,950 4,850 Broilers 7,025 7,100 7,150 Turkeys 1,375 1,400 1,225 Total Red Meat & Poultry 20,145 19,844 19,277 Eggs, mil doz. 1,400 1,425 1,400 Milk 39,000 38,700 39,800 Commercial use (mf basis) 40,700 39,900 38,900 Net removals (mf basis) 200 300 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 18.3 16.3 15.6 Pork 13.2 13.8 13.4 Broilers 18.4 18.2 18.9 Turkeys 4.1 5.9 3.7 Total Red Meat & Poultry 54.5 54.8 52.2 Eggs, number 61.0 61.9 60.3 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 62-64 70-76 70-76 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt 75-77 82-88 80-86 Bng Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 39-41 44-48 43-47 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cw 37-39 31-33 33-35 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb 63-65 53-57 54-58 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 62-64 65-71 54-58 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 69-71 77-83 72-78 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 14.4-14.7 12.4-13.0 13.4-14.6 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 13.7-14.0 12.4-13.0 11.9-12.9 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 580 505 475 Beef & veal imports 700 585 690 Pork exports 274 300 285 Pork imports 141 155 150 Broiler exports 1,225 1,325 1,200 Turkey exports 151 161 140 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, May 1998 QII'99 Economic Indicators /1 Real GDP, Billions '87$ 7,567 CPI-U, Annual % Change 2.6 Unemployment rate, % 4.8 3-Month T Bill,% 5.1 10-Year Bond,% 6.0 Production, million lb. Beef 5,975 Pork 4,775 Broilers 7,450 Turkeys 1,375 Total Red Meat & Poultry 19,777 Eggs, mil doz. 1,400 Milk 41,500 Commercial use (mf basis) 40,100 Net removals (mf basis) 100 Per capita consumption, Retail Beef 16.0 Pork 13.1 Broilers 19.7 Turkeys 3.9 Total Red Meat & Poultry 53.3 Eggs, number 60.4 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 72-78 Feeder steers,Ok City,$/cwt 84-90 Bng Ut Cows,S. Falls,$/cwt. 45-49 Barrows & gilts,Ia/Mn.,$/cw 36-38 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb 56-60 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 58-62 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 62-68 Milk, all at plant, $/cwt. 12.6-13.7 Milk, M-W, $/cwt. 11.3-12.2 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 535 Beef & veal imports 760 Pork exports 300 Pork imports 140 Broiler exports 1,200 Turkey exports 145 /1 Macro economic forecasts: Survey of Professional Forecasters Philadelphia Federal Reserve, May 1998 ----- END_OF_FILE