LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY November 18, 1998 November 1998, LDP-54 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY is published six times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Subscriptions to the printed version of this report are available from the ERS-NASS order desk. Call, toll-free, 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock # LDP, $40/year. ERS-NASS accepts MasterCard and Visa. This version contains trade data not available yesterday and corrects the URL cited in the notice at the report's beginning. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- In response to requests for increased frequency of market analysis information, the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Situation and Outlook Report will be electronically released monthly, starting December 28, 1998. The report will only be available on the World Wide Web (http://www.econ.ag.gov/Prodsrvs/rept-ldp.htm and click on Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Situation and Outlook Report ) in Adobe Acrobat format (PDF files) or from the ERS autofax (202-694-5700 document #11515 for text and tables, #11511 for tables only). The content of each issue may vary. Six issues will contain heavy analytical content. The remaining six issues will contain at least the regular tables with the latest available information and possibly some possible light analytical content. The December 1998 issue will be primarily data and tables. The 1999 release schedule will be January 26, February 24, March 23, April 27, May 25, June 29, July 27, August 24, September 28, October 26, November 23, and December 28. The reports should be available by 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time on the day of release. Tight Dairy Markets To Persist Robust demand and stagnant milk production produced record prices for milk and most dairy products during the summer and autumn and sustained high prices into November. Much larger imports of butter and modest seasonal weakening in butter markets lowered autumn prices to well below the September peak, but cheese prices continued to edge higher through mid-November. The Basic Formula Price (BFP) will peak well above $16 per cwt in November, probably at least $1 higher than the previous record of September 1996. Steep price declines are expected to begin within a few weeks, once demand for the year-end holidays is met. Milk production is expected to begin increasing in response to recent high prices, while commercial use also starts to feel their full brunt. Even so, 1999 prices are projected to stay much higher than those of most of the nineties. Dairy Demand Dominant Continued economic growth and consumer willingness to spend generated brisk demand for dairy products during spring and summer. Use, even at high and rapidly rising prices, was strong enough to prevent pipeline holdings from reaching heavy levels and forestalled price drops. Sales during April-September rose almost 3 percent from a year earlier on a milk equivalent, milkfat basis and almost 2 percent on a skim solids basis. April-September sales of cheese were fairly strong, with American varieties almost 3 percent above a year earlier and other types more than 1 percent higher. Meanwhile, butter use rose almost 1 percent. Butter and cheese disappearance exhibited a much different seasonality in 1998 than in 1997 because of the effects of much different price patterns. Second-quarter sales rose sharply as pipelines were rebuilt, followed by no gain or declines during the third quarter. April-September use of nonfat dry milk rose 7 percent. Powder use, particularly by food processors, had been languishing. However, strong product demand and tight alternative sources of skim solids boosted use of nonfat dry milk. Fractional declines in fluid milk sales persisted through summer. Demand is expected to remain fairly strong in 1999 but will be weakened by delayed response to the price levels of 1998. Domestic economic growth is projected to continue, although troubles in other economies will be worrisome. Commercial use of milkfat is projected to rise about 1 percent in 1999, with skim solids sales rising about 2 percent. However, the true measure of next year's demand will be the price levels needed to bring about these increases in use. Milk Production Not Responding Failure to respond quickly to very strong expansion stimuli was the main story told by summer milk production data. July- September milk per cow was just barely above a year earlier, despite a milk-feed price ratio above 2.0 for the first time ever. Similarly, sharply higher returns slowed declines in milk cow numbers--but only slightly. Recent output patterns probably do not mean significant expansion in milk output will not occur, but they may imply only slowly accelerating growth during 1999. Weak summer milk per cow had a number of causes that temporarily overcame the effects of three quarters of favorable milk-feed price ratios. Alfalfa quality was quite spotty over much of the country, particularly for the first cuttings that probably comprised most of what was fed during the summer. In addition, some effects of spring forage problems may have carried over into summer. The very high prices of cottonseed, while other concentrate prices were decreasing, led to less cottonseed being fed, and rations may not have been reformulated to fully compensate. The net impact of summer weather was problematic. Very hot weather in California, following spring mud and mastitis stress, clearly affected California's milk per cow. Similarly, milk per cow was reduced by heat across most of the South. However, summer weather in most of the Midwest and Northeast was very comfortable and should have boosted milk per cow. Summer returns over concentrate costs rose above $12 per cwt of milk for the first time, up a third from a year earlier. The strong summer level followed increases of 13 to 15 percent during the first half of 1998. The modest nature of the impact of these returns on structural changes and milk per cow was largely expected, particularly in light of the volatility of milk prices in recent years. These returns do not significantly improve the long-run position of farms exiting dairying because of income stress. On the other hand, producers making major expansions tend to be very cautious about accelerating their plans. In addition, reports of sharp increases in prices of replacement heifers and cows this summer indicated that the supply of replacements may be limiting response in cow numbers. Such strong incentive to boost milk production is not likely to be resisted for too long. Milk cow numbers are expected to run just slightly below a year earlier during the rest of 1998 and 1999. If expanding producers start devoting recent returns to accelerated growth, cow numbers would run stronger than projected and could be close to a year earlier by the second half of 1999. The concentrate ration value is expected to fall an average of about a tenth in 1999 and will be down about a fourth from the 1996 peak. The milk-feed price ratio is projected to average above 2.0, unprecedented incentive to boost concentrate feeding and milk per cow. Even with this year's generally good silage crop, forage quality will remain a moderating factor through at least midyear. Also, the damage evidently done to cows this year will persist until they start a new lactation. Milk per cow is expected to be growing strongly by late 1999 but recovery may develop gradually. Milk production in 1998 is projected to rise less than 1 billion pounds, the result of a fractional decline in milk cow numbers and an increase in milk per cow of just more than 1 percent. Output in 1999 is expected to rise 1.5 to 2.0 percent, with second-half increases well over 2 percent. Growth in milk per cow probably will be considerably more than 2 percent for the year, starting the year below 2 percent before rising to about 3 percent in the second half. The decline in milk cow numbers is projected to be about the same as in 1998. International Dairy Markets Sluggish International butter markets held fairly firm throughout 1998, in part the result of import demand from the United States. Export supplies (except from the United States) have been fairly stable, as relatively well-balanced domestic markets in the European Union (EU) and increases in Oceanic cheese production have limited export availability. Russia's economic problems have not yet had a major impact on butter prices, although weakness in recent weeks may be an omen of what will come once the U.S. import demand ceases. Prices of nonfat dry milk have generally weakened as 1998 progressed, with more pronounced weakness appearing in recent weeks as output from the new Oceania season was shipped. Weak demand from Asia continues to dominate powder markets. Current prices of nonfat dry milk are near prices for whey protein concentrate, which should prevent much further erosion. Butter prices in 1999 are expected to decline because of weakness in Russian demand and the likely end of extra imports by the United States. Nonfat dry milk prices are expected to stay weak, possibly similar to current levels through most of the year. While powder prices may not have much room to go lower, the potential for increased demand needed to raise prices appears to be missing. U.S. butter imports will be a record in 1998, having already surpassed the 1973 record by October. Imports of butter and anhydrous milkfat above the tariff-rate quotas (TRQ) totaled the equivalent of almost 37 million pounds of butter during January- October, in addition to the 24 million pounds imported within the TRQ. Cheese imports also have run somewhat higher because of strong markets. Imports probably will fall in 1999. If above- TRQ imports of butter occur, they will be considerably smaller than this year. Weak international demand for nonfat dry milk dramatically slowed new contract activity under the Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP). The dropoff in late 1998 shipments will mean that removals under the DEIP will fall considerably from 1997 but still will exceed 200 million pounds. Exports of butter under DEIP were all in early 1998 and will total less than a fifth of the 1997 total. Cheese and dry whole milk exports under DEIP will be similar to a year earlier. DEIP activity probably will be fairly modest through the first half of 1999, unless Mexico comes to the United States for an unexpectedly large amount. Dairy Prices To Tumble Butter prices will drop soon but are expected to stabilize at a level well above those of most recent years. The declines from the September peak through mid-November came largely from the effects of butter imports and seasonal easing in milkfat markets. These declines have made beyond-TRQ imports unprofitable. Milkfat markets in 1999 are projected to stay fairly tight, with first-half butter prices stabilizing at $1.35 to 1.50 per pound. Some seasonal increases are expected in the second half of 1999 but they are unlikely to be as strong as this year. Cheese prices probably will decline rapidly once they start falling. Expansion in milk output is expected to easily overtake commercial use at the high retail prices of late 1998-early 1999. Wholesale prices may drop 35 to 40 cents per pound by late winter, with much more modest seasonal erosion continuing into spring. However, the steepness and ultimate size of the declines will hinge on how quickly milk production catches up with use. The seasonal increase in prices during the second half will be fairly modest if production grows as briskly as expected. Despite the modest autumn strength in nonfat dry milk prices and the repurchase of powder sold earlier to the government, the market remains relatively weak. Exports under DEIP are not expected to absorb all of the surplus and some sales to the government are projected before the purchase program dies at the end of 1999. However, the relatively stable, low powder prices may be attracting some renewed use, and nonfat dry milk markets may generally tighten during 1999. The BFP will follow cheese prices downward to a flush season low expected to be $11.25 to 11.75 per cwt. For the year, manufacturing values are projected to fall $1.25 to 1.75 from the record 1998 average of about $14 per cwt. The average price of all milk will decline somewhat less because of the effects of late 1998 manufacturing values on early 1999 prices of milk for fluid use. The 1999 average price of milk is expected to stay above $14 per cwt, down from about $15.30 in 1998 but still the third highest recorded. Retail dairy prices did not keep pace with sharply higher 1998 farm prices, particularly during the second half. The farm- retail price spread probably will average more than 3 percent lower than a year earlier in 1998. Retail dairy prices are expected to average almost 4 percent above 1997, with rises of 5 percent in the third quarter and likely more than 6 percent during the fourth. Retail prices may well continue to rise into winter, as autumn wholesale prices are more fully reflected. Prices at retail are expected to decline slowly during the remainder of 1999. The farm-retail price spread is likely to expand substantially after the 1998 decline. For 1999, retail dairy prices are projected to increase 2 to 4 percent, even though they may post declines by the end of the year. Broiler Production Increases To Accelerate Broiler production is expected to increase about 5 percent in 1999 as increased producer profitability makes production increases more attainable and attractive. Producer net returns were near record highs this summer as prices have increased and feed costs are about 20 percent below a year ago. In response to high net returns, pullet hatch for potential placement in the hatchery supply flock was 12 percent higher than a year ago in September and has averaged 4 percent larger for the last year. Prices for whole birds are expected to continue above a year ago through the rest of 1998 and into early 1999, but should be slightly weaker than a year ago later in the year as production increases accelerate. Currently prices for whole birds are projected to be record high in 1998. Record high prices for whole birds in August of this year are not expected to be matched in 1999. Strength in the fast food market is reflected in stronger prices for skinless boneless breast meat and wings, up about 10 percent and 20 percent from a year ago, respectively, for May through mid-November. Leg quarter prices dropped significantly when the Russian market collapsed in late summer. They peaked at over 38 cents a pound in mid-August on the Northeast wholesale market, hit a low of 19 cents in October, and continue near 20 cents per pound in November. Plentiful pork supplies also are providing competition for low-priced poultry products in export markets. Price levels in 1999 will depend on recovery of sales to Russia, the Asian economies, and the size of competing beef and pork supplies. Broiler production increased fractionally in the second and third quarters of 1998, relative to a year ago, as hatchery supply flock problems and low profitability limited increases in bird numbers and hot weather slowed growth rates in some leading southern production areas. Stronger increases in broiler-type chick hatch in the fall, relative to the summer, indicate that fourth-quarter production should increase more strongly. Egg sets in incubators for broiler production were up between 4 and 5 percent during October for the 15 States surveyed. Most of these birds will be ready for slaughter during December. A recovery in slaughter weights is expected as the effects of hot summer weather ease. Production is expected to increase about 2 percent for the fourth quarter and for all of 1998. This would be the smallest rise since a 1-percent increase in 1982. Broiler Export Markets a Challenge The Asian and Russian economic crises have lowered U.S. poultry export projections. The broiler export estimate for 1998 has been reduced to 4.7 billion pounds and the forecast for 1999 has been lowered to 4.5 billion. If realized, this would be the first decrease in exports since 1984. The Asian economic crisis hit first, primarily affecting Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore, but quickly spread to Hong Kong and Japan. While the first group of countries are not large markets for U.S. poultry products, Thailand is a major broiler producer and competitor. The decline of Thailand's baht versus the dollar has made its broiler exports more competitive with U.S. shipments in the Hong Kong/China and Japanese markets. Hong Kong/China and Japan are the primary Asian markets for U.S. poultry products and accounted for 23 percent of all exports in 1997. The economic slowdown in Japan has not yet reduced imports of U.S. broiler products (up 11 percent through August), but exports to Japan of U.S. other chicken and egg products have strongly declined. Hong Kong itself is a major market for poultry products and it also serves as the chief port of entry for poultry products going to China. At the beginning of 1998, U.S. poultry exports to Hong Kong/China fell significantly as consumers avoided all poultry products due to an avian influenza scare. After the first quarter, exports of broilers to Hong Kong/China rebounded to levels above the previous year. But, even though U.S. broiler shipments are up, exports to Hong Kong of U.S. turkey, other chicken, and egg products have fallen significantly. In spite of the economic problems in many Asian countries, U.S. broiler shipments were still well above the previous year until Russia's economic crisis. In 1997, shipments to Russia, the Baltic countries, and NIS countries accounted for 52 percent of all U.S. broiler exports. Over the first 8 months of 1998, broiler shipments to these countries had reached just over 3.4 billion pounds, up 13 percent from the previous year. Although shipments to Russia were down slightly (2.5 percent), shipments to Estonia, Latvia, and Poland were all up 75 percent or more and totaled 452 million pounds. U.S. broiler exports to the smaller countries are largely transshipped to Russia or other NIS countries. For example, U.S. broiler exports to Poland through August totaled 135 million pounds, even though Poland has a annual quota on broiler imports of only 80 million pounds. Some broiler exports to Russia and the surrounding countries are expected in the fourth quarter of 1998, but quantities likely will be very small. Exports to Russia and the surrounding countries in 1999 are projected to very gradually recover as the exchange rate for the ruble stabilizes and economic recovery plans are put in place. However, shipments are expected to be significantly lower than in 1998. In the recently announced food aid package to Russia, poultry products were not among the items to be included. Negotiations are continuing to find ways to encourage the resumption of commercial sales of poultry products. However, if economic conditions in Russia do not improve, the export forecast for 1999 will be reduced accordingly. Lower prices for some broiler cuts brought on by reduced shipments to Russia are expected to encourage greater purchases by other countries. However, even greater purchases by other countries are not expected to be large enough to offset the loss of sales to Russia. Turkey Net Returns Positive After more than 2 years of negative returns, turkey producer have broken even since July, thanks to reduced feed costs (27 percent below a year ago) and seasonal increases in turkey prices. Returns are expected to continue positive through the fall, even though large pork supplies will limit turkey price increases. Turkey production is expected to decline 4-5 percent from a year ago in 1998 as lower poult placements limit turkey slaughter. Production is expected to be nearly unchanged in 1999. Total turkey supplies for the fall holidays will be about unchanged from last year as lower exports and smaller ending stocks offset the decline in production. Per capita supplies are expected to be slightly lower, with slightly fewer whole birds than last year. Prices are expected to be higher at the wholesale level but retail featuring for the fourth-quarter holidays is expected to bring retail prices slightly lower than a year ago as increased supplies of hams provide competition. Increasing Egg Production Expected Egg production will increase nearly 3 percent in 1998 and bring wholesale large egg prices down about 5 cents per dozen. The lower prices have been more than offset by lower production costs and net returns are expected to be above last year. Larger production and a stable export market have kept prices from increasing as rapidly leading into the fourth-quarter holidays. Egg prices have been steady since late October. During the same period last year (late October to mid-November) egg prices increased 20 cents per dozen. Egg production is expected to continue increasing in 1999 but at a slightly slower 2-percent rate. Increasing production is expected to continue putting pressure on egg prices with the 1999 forecast 3-4 cents lower. Declining feed costs are expected to offset some of the price decline and keep egg production profitable for most producers. The egg breaking industry is using about 4 percent more eggs during 1998 than last year. More rapid growth was seen in 1996 and 1997 but weakness in the export market in Asia has played a role in slowing production growth. Increased sales to Mexico (up 137 percent January-August) have nearly offset declines to Japan (-30 percent) and Canada (-9 percent). Total export sales for egg products are down about 1 percent while exports of shell eggs have been about 6 percent higher than last year. Beef Production Declining Cyclically Large female slaughter continues to point toward lower cattle inventories over the next couple of years. Although feedlot placements have been below year-earlier levels since midyear, on feed inventories remain well above average and fed cattle marketings will continue large through mid-winter with weights remaining seasonally heavy. However, the prospects of reduced beef production over the next 2 to 3 years and the recent concessional beef sales to Russia will help support prices during the transition to lower supplies. Profitability will return to the industry in 1999, but record pork and poultry supplies will hold down price gains. Female Slaughter Remains Cyclically Large Drought has affected female retention over the past couple of years, with large numbers of heifers again placed on feed this past spring and summer. Thus even as cattle inventories declined beef supplies increased. Beef cow and heifer slaughter remain large, reflecting continued poor forage prospects in most of the southern States. Although moisture conditions are much improved, pasture and hay prospects remain poor for the 1998/99 winter supplemental feeding period. Total hay production in 1998 is essentially unchanged from a year earlier. Alfalfa hay production is expected to rise 4 percent from last year, but all other hays are forecast down 5 percent. Hay prices remain relatively high with reduced supplies available for sale in most areas as producers hold stocks to get their own cattle through the winter feeding season. Many producers simply cannot afford to risk buying expensive hay this winter if harsh winter conditions force heavier supplemental feeding. Beef cow slaughter remains cyclically large. Third-quarter cow slaughter was nearly 1 percent above a year earlier, but down 16 percent from the large summer-quarter 1997 slaughter, and the second largest since 1987. Third-quarter heifer slaughter, while down 2 percent from 1997, was the second largest summer slaughter since 1988. Initial signs of herd expansion-- sharply reduced beef cow slaughter and increased heifer retention--are not going to begin until forage supplies are much improved and cattlemen are much more confident in future price directions. Forage improvement and higher returns are not likely to come together before next spring and summer. Fed Cattle Marketings Remain Large and Heavy Cattle on feed inventories in the 7 monthly reporting States on November 1 were down 2 percent from a year earlier, pointing towards tightening beef supplies in 1999. However, a slow marketing pace and record heavy weights are holding up beef supplies and slowing price improvement. Cattle placed on feed during October were down 2 percent, and point to declining supplies but not before mid-winter due to continued large placements of cattle weighing over 800 pounds. October fed cattle marketings, although down 1 percent from a year earlier, were nonetheless positive because of one less slaughter day this year. Feedlot placements will continue to decline over the next couple of quarters and if heifer retention begins in earnest next spring and summer, feedlot placements will drop sharply over the next couple of years. Feeder Cattle Supplies Down The supply of feeder cattle outside feedlots on October 1 was down 1 percent from a year earlier, but will tighten sharply over the next couple of years as calf crops decline and fewer heifers are available for feeding. Calf slaughter remains relatively large and will drop sharply as bob veal calves are bid into the feeder cattle supply. Another disappointing wheat grazing year and poor forage supplies in general will cause feedlot placements to decline only 5 to 7 percent from a year earlier this fall and winter before dropping nearly 15 percent next spring and summer as the new grazing season begins. Cyclical Production Declines Begin in 1999 Beef output in 1998 will be near record large, largely the result of dry conditions in much of the southern half of the country. This will be the largest production since 1976, when massive herd liquidation was beginning from the record 1975 cattle inventory of 132 million head. A slow pace of fed cattle marketings in second-half 1998 has resulted in larger numbers of heavy weight fed cattle being carried into 1999. This backlog of cattle will largely be cleaned up by mid-winter, beginning a fairly sharp dropoff in beef production over the next couple of years. Beef production is expected to be down about 5 percent from a year earlier in first-quarter 1999 and decline 7 to 8 percent during the remainder of the year. Beef production for all of 1999 is expected to decline 6 to 7 percent. Exports and Tightening Supplies To Support Prices In spite of record large pork supplies and sharply lower hog prices, prospects for lower beef supplies are encouraging users to increase orders to hedge against likely higher prices for future orders. Beef exports, although at lower value than a year earlier, will be enhanced by concessional sales to Russia. On November 9 USDA announced a 3.1-million-ton food aid program for Russia, with shipments beginning in December and continuing through June. Shipments will include 120,000 tons of beef with only a portion of the concessional sale expected to be variety meats. At least some beef is expected to be shipped by the end of this year. The remainder of the beef is expected to be shipped by mid-spring. Russian shipments and an already tightening cow beef supply are expected to lead to stronger U.S. beef imports, particularly as shipments by Australia and New Zealand into Asian markets remain disappointing. Imports during the summer quarter have been running above expectations and are expected to continue large even though it is spring in the Southern Hemisphere and the beginning of a favorable grazing season. Per Capita Beef Supply To Decline Per capita beef consumption is expected to decline from 68 pounds in 1998 to about 63 pounds in 1999. Retail prices for Choice beef averaged $2.74 in September and $2.75 in October and are expected to begin a moderate rise over the next couple of years. Retail prices are expected to average $2.76 this year and rise to the mid-$2.80's in 1999 as supplies tighten. Next year prices will be below the record $2.93 set in 1993 when severe weather conditions sharply reduced slaughter weights and beef supplies. Production reductions over the next couple of years will occur at a time of record pork supplies at sharply lower prices and continued large poultry supplies. Choice fed steer prices averaged near $59 per cwt this past summer and are expected to average in the mid-$60's by late this fall and in the mid-$70's next spring as the cookout season begins. Prices for yearling feeder cattle should rise well into the mid-$80's next spring and through second-half 1999. Feeder cattle supplies will tighten rapidly next spring as the grazing season begins and heifer retention begins. Utility cow prices will rise similarly once the 1999 grazing season begins and producers have fewer concerns with rationing scarce forage resources. Cow prices are likely to rise to the mid- to upper- $40's next spring and summer before declining seasonally to the mid-$40's next fall. Large supplies of processing meats in the world market and continued sluggish export trade will hold down utility cow prices. Hog Producers Indicate Plans To Expand Despite relatively unfavorable returns this year, the September Hogs and Pigs report indicates that producers plan to continue to increase production over the next 6 months. As of September 1, hog producers indicated intentions to have 2 percent more sows farrow in September-November than a year earlier and 3 percent more in December-February. If these plans are realized, an increase in pork production in 1999 is assured. The September farrowing intentions are slightly reduced from June, when producers indicated plans to increase the number of sows farrowing 3 percent from a year earlier. Pork production is expected to rise about 9 percent this year from 1997. Given the lackluster returns scenario for next year and September 1 farrowing intentions, pork production growth in 1999 is expected to slow to about 3 percent above this year. Corn and soybean meal prices have plummeted, bringing down costs of feed--the major component of hog production costs--but hog prices are the lowest in 27 years due to large supplies of pork and competing meats. Historically, producers should begin to liquidate their breeding herds after about a year of unfavorable returns, leading to reduced sow farrowings and smaller pig crops. The smaller pig crops will result in reduced pork production about 6 months later. The present period of unfavorable returns began in late 1997, which might have been expected to lead to a decline in farrowings, dampening prospective pork production gains next year. Several factors may explain this contrast with the increase in farrowing intentions. First, the current producer costs and returns are based on the live weight price at the time of sale. But since many producers sell on a grade and yield basis (price is determined by the quality of carcass produced) they usually receive a higher effective price than the live weight price. Second, producers who forward contract hogs receive a price based on the negotiated formula usually tied to the futures market. This year, such pricing raised the effective price received because producers locked in higher prices on the futures markets before the declines took place. Finally, current corn and soybean prices pushed break-even prices (based on cash cost) below expected hog prices next year. Hog Prices To Remain Low Increasing pork supplies and large supplies of poultry will keep hog prices hovering in the mid- to low-$30's per cwt for most of the next year. In fall 1998, prices will likely average in the mid-$20's per cwt, although prices have dipped into the teens as slaughter hit its seasonal peak. Weekly federally inspected slaughter has exceeded 2.1 million head, near the levels reached in 1994, when prices averaged $31 per cwt. Hog prices this year are expected to average $32-$33 per cwt, compared with $51 last year, down about a third. The last time hog prices averaged this low was in 1972 at $27 per cwt. Prices in 1999 are expected to average about a dollar higher than in 1998. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' retail pork price index is expected to decline 4-5 percent this year and another 4 percent in 1999. The gradual decline in retail prices is not unusual because declines in farm values take over a year to be passed on to consumers, research has shown. However, if prices were weighted by the volume sold rather than just averaging the observed prices, the price would probably be lower. Most meat is sold when the particular cut is featured at a reduced price. The abundant supplies of higher value pork cuts will provide consumers an attractive alternative, especially if beef prices rise substantially. Starting late this year beef production is expected to decline and the decrease should continue through 1999. Per capita pork consumption is expected to rise about 7 percent (4 pounds) for this year and another 2 percent (1 pound ) in 1999. Pork Exports Surge Lower pork prices have boosted exports--volume is up 30 percent during January-August from a year ago. For the year, pork exports are expected to post a double-digit increase, but most of the increase is due to attractive prices of lower value cuts in some markets. These products compete on the with an abundant supply of dark poultry meat products. Reduced prices for lower value cuts, such as picnics and trimmings, have provided incentives for low income countries like Russia and Mexico to more than double year-over-year purchases. Russia accounts for about 10 and Mexico for about 20 percent of U.S. pork exports. Given the current economic climate, it may be difficult to market large volumes--even at very low prices. Exports to Russia are expected to fall, reflecting the Russian financial crisis late in the third quarter. However, concessional sales to Russia are expected to boost exports in early 1999. Current U.S. export flows to Mexico could also be affected if tariff rate-quotas are exceeded. The strong sales of Canadian hogs to the U.S. have continued. Imports of Canadian hogs are expected to exceed 4 million head this year, up from 3.2 million in 1997. The favorable U.S.- Canadian exchange rate and a 4-percent increase in the September 1 Canadian hog and pig inventory suggest that Canadian hogs are going to continue to come south of the border. Principal Contributors - (202) 694-5180 Leland Southard, (Coordinator), Milton Madison (Poultry), David Harvey (Poultry Trade), Ron Gustafson, (Cattle), Mildred Haley (Pork Trade), Jim Miller (Dairy), Laverne Williams (Statistics) PRODUCTION INDICATORS 1998 1998 Oct. Aug. Sep. Oct. /* 1000 Head Cattle: On feed - 7 States, 1, 8558 7706 7750 8376 Net placements 2377 1731 2203 2351 Marketings 1545 1687 1577 1532 Broilers: Eggs in incubators (000) 565599 605287 603518 581622 Chicks hatched (000) /2 683113 723352 692859 700000 Hatching egg layers /1 52583 54838 54157 53890 Pullets placed (000) 6254 7076 7313 NA Hvy-type hen slaughter 5672 4876 5222 5500 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) 31878 31327 26969 28047 Poults placed (000) 24587 24450 21124 22786 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil.dz)467.58 3469.8 455 480 Table egg layers, (000) 250477 250466 252068 255335 Table eggs/100 layers/1 71.7 72.8 71.7 71.6 Chicks hatched (000) /2 35328 33514 38611 37000 Lt.-type hen slaughter 8851 9293 8141 8000 ESTIMATED RETURNS 1998 1998 Nov. Sep. Oct. Nov. /* Cents/lb. Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 69.03 63.62 63.44 60.35 Selling price 67.66 57.93 61.54 62.75 Net margin -1.37 -5.69 -1.9 2.4 N. Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price /3 44.93 39.93 39.41 38.85 Selling price 44.57 29.37 26.98 18 Net margin -0.36 -10.56 -12.43 -20.85 Broiler Wholesale cost 52.93 48.44 46.21 45.43 Wholesale price 54.62 70.53 68.04 64 Net margin 1.69 22.09 21.83 18.57 Turkey Wholesale cost 68.35 60.85 60.89 57.18 Wholesale price 68.64 66.89 72.16 73 Net margin 0.29 6.04 11.27 15.82 Egg Wholesale cost 70.45 62.24 61.01 61.99 Wholesale price 99.53 79.17 81.67 85 Net margin 29.08 16.93 20.66 23.01 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* estimate LIVESTOCK PRICES Nov-97 Sep-98 Oct-98 Nov-98 /* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 67.66 57.93 61.54 62.75 Nebraska Direct 67.21 58.28 62.00 62.25 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 33.57 36.28 34.93 35.00 Utility boning 32.20 33.47 31.60 32.00 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 89.18 72.39 75.14 79.00 600-650 lb. 80.62 70.37 71.67 71.00 750-800 lb. 79.11 67.61 70.26 69.50 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 78.24 65.97 68.37 71.00 700-750 lb. 73.12 64.48 65.13 63.75 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 44.40 30.18 26.91 18.25 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 44.57 29.37 26.98 18.00 Sows 6 Markets 36.69 19.83 20.98 16.00 Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 80.33 69.50 67.20 63.75 Ewes, Good 49.67 36.00 33.75 34.75 Feeder lambs, Choice 94.00 74.75 70.10 72.25 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES Nov-97 Sep-98 Oct-98 Nov-98 /* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 2.70 1.78 1.94 2.09 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 3.76 2.70 3.17 3.30 SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 245.34 135.83 135.70 145.00 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 108.00 89.10 88.10 NA Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 77.50 74.00 72.50 NA /* Estimates WHOLESALE PRICES Nov-97 Aug-98 Sep-98 Oct-98 Nov-98 /* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700 lb. 104.63 104.28 99.28 102.08 103.50 Choice 1-3 700-850 lb. 103.74 102.16 96.66 101.09 102.00 Select 1-3 700-850 lb. 94.66 90.65 87.41 90.59 92.00 Canner-Cutter Cows 59.64 62.13 56.50 55.22 55.00 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 83.91 89.78 81.17 78.04 81.50 Importd bnls. beef 90% frz. 90.06 83.31 80.95 80.16 81.00 Hide & offal value 8.78 7.05 6.62 6.58 6.77 Veal carcass, 220-280 lb. 167.44 156.44 157.45 158.44 158.75 Pork, Central U.S. Pork cutout composite 65.49 57.25 50.72 48.18 41.25 Loins, 14-19 lb. BI 1/4" tr 85.99 105.90 97.23 99.63 78.00 Bellies, 12-14 lb. skin on 53.77 72.99 57.49 42.05 41.00 Hams, 20-27 lb. BI trmd. TS 64.29 46.00 45.01 44.75 35.25 Trimmings, 72% fresh 50.78 28.88 25.08 21.43 17.75 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. Down, Choice 168.25 162.28 163.15 152.93 141.75 55-65 lb., Choice 166.25 169.78 171.15 157.18 141.75 cents/lb. Broilers 12 City Avg. 54.62 72.13 70.53 68.04 64.00 Georgia dock 56.70 69.57 70.15 68.26 66.00 Northeast Breast, boneless 155.41 225.51 224.00 182.71 170.00 Breast, Ribs on 77.13 113.10 112.68 95.72 90.00 Legs, whole 46.96 51.01 47.12 39.95 37.00 Leg quarters 31.35 35.87 27.72 21.59 20.00 Turkeys Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 69.15 67.40 69.25 73.68 76.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 70.07 63.17 65.65 71.52 73.00 Breast, 4-8 lb. 99.00 88.70 93.84 98.90 99.00 Drumsticks 31.06 28.90 28.92 29.39 28.00 Wings, full cut 41.64 28.17 29.04 28.53 30.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz !2 City Metro 99.53 80.26 79.17 81.67 85.00 New York 97.44 77.69 77.02 78.90 83.00 /* Estimates MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - Nov. '97 Nov. '98 July Aug Sep Oct Nov./* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 23360 23605 2213 2228 2195 2244 2047 Veal 298 229 21 20 20 21 20 Pork 15603 17141 1529 1505 1590 1635 1765 Lamb 234 224 18 17 19 20 19 Total red meat 39495 41199 3781 3770 3824 3920 3851 Broilers 24965 25420 2354 2265 2316 2450 2200 Other chicken 469 476 46 43 42 43 38 Turkeys 5017 4772 459 413 428 425 435 Total poultry 30451 30669 2859 2722 2785 2918 2673 Total meat & poultry 69946 71868 6640 6492 6609 6838 6524 Jan. - Jan. - 1998 Nov. '97 Nov. '98 July Aug Sep Oct Nov./* Commercial slaughter/** Thousand head Cattle 33441 32571 3039 3040 2989 3034 2793 Steers 16184 16092 1568 1554 1449 1515 1326 Heifers 10655 10616 929 950 986 1069 916 Beef Cows 3245 2984 283 277 282 302 279 Dairy Cows 2710 2450 207 206 218 226 223 Bulls and stags 646 558 52 53 54 53 47 Calves 1430 1329 133 125 135 124 116 Sheep 3559 3454 281 275 306 327 302 Hogs 83337 91463 8269 8168 8594 8670 9355 Barrows & gilts 80120 87820 7906 7822 8249 8345 9000 Sows 2672 3180 314 301 302 295 316 Broilers 7088021 7148707 684967 650835 655157 675000 600000 Turkeys 266634 47518 24342 22430 22984 22500 23000 1998 Nov. '97 July Aug Sep Oct Nov./* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 707 735 739 741 739 740 Calves 190 159 160 162 171 171 Sheep 66 64 62 62 64 64 Hogs 191 186 185 186 189 189 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 352 316 303 307 316 NA Pork 354 427 415 393 389 NA Bellies 14 52 31 15 9 NA Hams 89 90 105 105 104 NA Total chicken 587 593 563 550 591 NA Turkey 737 656 703 709 697 NA Frozen eggs 11 10 12 9 8 NA /* Estimates with exception of Cold Storage /** Slaughter classes are estimated RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Oct-97 Jun-98 Jul-98 Aug-98 Sep-98 Oct-98 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 279.0 278.7 278.5 279.4 274.2 275.0 Beef - All Fresh 254.0 251.7 251.9 255.1 250.6 252.6 Ground Beef 140.6 138.8 144.7 142.6 136.1 139.3 Rib roast 277.9 265.2 271.9 272.0 269.1 269.9 T-bone steak 591.5 626.1 597.9 609.3 600.0 604.1 Pork 234.9 228.9 231.0 230.9 231.2 230.2 Bacon 273.0 245.7 251.7 251.3 257.6 256.7 Chops 348.7 329.4 331.1 327.4 322.6 317.7 Picnic 220.4 236.4 236.2 240.5 242.6 245.3 Chicken - Composite 148.8 155.1 152.7 156.4 154.8 158.8 Whole, fresh 98.4 101.6 103.3 105.9 107.4 107.6 Breast - bone in 198.2 208.1 204.8 208.7 208.5 213.2 Leg quarter 123.6 127.9 125.2 129.1 125.5 130.0 Turkey; whole frozen 106.2 99.1 100.8 102.4 105.2 102.5 Eggs, Grade A, Large 101.8 93.2 97.1 105.3 102.2 104.8 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 161.6 163.0 163.2 163.4 163.6 164.0 All food 158.2 160.1 160.5 161.0 161.1 162.0 All meat 145.2 141.5 141.8 142.2 141.6 141.3 Beef & veal 137.1 136.3 136.1 137.0 136.3 136.1 Pork 157.4 148.7 149.7 149.9 148.7 147.5 Poultry 155.6 155.5 156.6 158.9 159.3 161.1 Price Spreads Cents / retail lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 20.5 19.7 25.4 34.5 28.6 25.5 Wholesale to retail 120.3 124.2 124.5 118.8 121.0 118.6 Farmers share (%) 50.0 48.0 46.0 45.0 45.0 48.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 37.3 32.2 37.3 41.0 45.3 49.1 Wholesale to retail 124.4 130.9 136.1 134.5 138.0 139.1 Farmers share (%) 31.0 29.0 25.0 24.0 21.0 18.0 Poultry and eggs Wholesale to retail Broilers 92.3 89.9 79.1 82.0 83.2 95.1 Retail to consumer Turkey 31.9 30.7 29.6 29.0 29.3 21.3 Eggs 23.3 21.9 25.6 26.0 24.0 24.1 U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Oct-97 Nov-97 Dec-97 Jan-98 Feb-98 Mar-98 Apr-98 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 44285 52782 34175 62724 36249 62706 69689 New Zealand 22765 21041 35241 53449 69972 66652 57856 Canada 65991 67072 66223 74167 64503 62376 56803 Brazil 7042 6518 8845 11652 6648 10504 10262 Argentina 11253 12501 21031 12767 8606 8451 7337 Central America 7480 6994 7863 3886 8037 7456 3022 Other 3184 4692 8362 4407 3878 4978 3946 Total 161999 171600 181739 223052 197893 223124 208914 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 90304 99523 79340 84595 87664 97216 99949 Canada 22569 23627 23095 19649 19991 21390 22138 Mexico 34068 28555 35481 25837 30535 30814 28941 Korea, Rep. 25716 26133 11628 6561 6211 15617 8231 Caribbean 1476 1710 712 1881 1596 1926 1730 Other 19564 22071 22347 15320 13835 19811 15029 Total 193697 201619 172604 153843 159832 186774 176017 Cattle Imports Head Mexico 72261 145208 87689 58093 62163 81158 77627 Canada 141029 101258 80269 93987 114883 127660 128398 Over 700 lbs 119850 83585 71504 84809 102578 115540 110465 440-700 lbs. 11433 9001 3994 4949 7355 4961 8743 Total 213401 246466 167958 152080 177046 208892 206025 Cattle Exports Mexico 26853 17522 19985 18132 16294 15793 13244 Canada 3290 3698 6707 4678 5913 7544 6606 Total 31053 21745 27081 23425 22525 23874 21225 Lamb Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 2484 2468 3566 2975 2856 4733 3172 New Zealand 2017 1339 2106 2494 2918 4539 3284 Total 4609 4010 5710 5513 5839 9319 6466 Mutton Imports Total 1528 1207 2142 3874 2987 4676 4347 Lamb and mutton exports Total 240 478 580 634 324 571 579 Pork Imports Canada 41479 37544 38163 35080 32089 35345 36381 Denmark 8814 9606 10144 8346 12829 10735 9322 Poland 1665 1243 2192 1217 1651 2027 802 Hungary 873 265 783 536 422 687 661 Netherlands 930 504 1021 948 1216 826 870 Other 4386 3395 4614 3372 3352 3671 3413 Total 58146 52557 56917 49500 51558 53290 51449 Pork Exports Japan 41170 44315 35554 36382 33896 39214 57660 Canada 11066 13017 11450 12790 12191 11505 9575 Mexico 9320 7848 10403 10532 9070 11265 11243 Caribbean 1323 1284 1383 1029 987 827 1244 Other 47527 34809 33323 26526 37228 52511 44379 Total 110406 101272 92113 87258 93371 115321 124100 Hog Imports Carcass wt.,thousa Canada 287815 282203 361135 381649 321504 352390 302501 Under 110 lb 93076 74177 79412 87548 91993 122449 121504 Total 287903 282203 361197 381743 321510 352398 302597 Hog Exports Total 9968 4451 4322 15487 8423 6585 9767 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 21865 21336 12591 23089 18736 16461 19765 Mexico 23932 18952 24134 19774 22760 26027 21548 Hong Kong 82389 70991 77908 25916 56673 82046 91456 Singapore 3478 2189 2886 1996 1265 1665 1896 Canada 10355 11375 8106 10517 8963 10716 10707 Russia 194816 180994 176248 234851 164709 132831 142743 Total 449590 402079 401604 440624 407423 392963 397049 Turkey Exports Mexico 17697 20706 24477 11710 15263 15309 13645 S. Korea 3325 1255 100 168 145 47 291 Russia 8981 4408 6975 3616 6186 9874 8144 Hong Kong 9683 9143 12173 3343 2547 2167 4159 Total 53766 48899 57134 29717 31181 34558 31296 Shell Thousand dz. Egg Exports 11495 8896 8657 6370 7139 9189 9328 U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS May-98 Jun-98 Jul-98 Aug-98 Sep-98 Beef & Veal Imports Australia 42643 93003 88913 88208 88072 New Zealand 63443 81090 68645 35610 23544 Canada 67461 72077 66568 70564 68603 Brazil 10230 11589 11732 14685 11771 Argentina 6612 9670 8037 7798 9236 Central America 2668 2640 2497 3983 3818 Other 4906 5692 5667 3976 3563 Total 197962 275762 252058 224824 208606 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 95319 98857 110607 96221 87079 Canada 21095 23098 20080 21349 21827 Mexico 31582 33203 38820 40662 38086 Korea, Rep. 11237 6607 6151 11447 15937 Caribbean 1550 1360 2365 1103 1444 Other 23641 12990 23010 14531 11942 Total 184424 176114 201034 185312 176315 Cattle Imports Mexico 59814 22877 9933 3655 10359 Canada 114013 100818 84515 129789 135189 Over 700 lbs 96810 92910 77102 120482 125023 440-700 lbs. 9825 1150 577 1398 2295 Total 173827 123695 94459 133444 145548 Cattle Exports Mexico 11248 13424 13445 15250 12671 Canada 8831 6882 4450 3326 3206 Total 21601 20633 18150 18828 16167 Lamb Imports Australia 2556 2285 3745 1518 1847 New Zealand 2705 3367 2478 429 445 Total 5349 5682 6223 1953 2387 Mutton Imports Total 3088 3354 1978 1256 1527 Lamb and mutton exports Total 327 258 399 334 221 Pork Imports Canada 32382 38526 39807 43683 44041 Denmark 6677 11889 13357 12062 11986 Poland 1673 1580 1587 1442 1728 Hungary 820 1014 1152 1405 916 Netherlands 769 476 776 405 422 Other 3589 2508 2504 2097 3121 Total 45910 55993 59183 61093 62213 Pork Exports Japan 43568 40552 40683 41144 37560 Canada 13869 11977 9036 8217 10791 Mexico 10962 12426 12299 10937 10677 Caribbean 1635 1421 2047 2503 2567 Other 45719 42247 37016 35351 27402 Total 115753 108623 101081 98152 88998 Hog Imports Canada 333389 361780 373552 342422 339352 Under 110 lb 99067 124344 127141 134383 138287 Total 333389 361792 373570 342422 339611 Hog Exports Total 9129 11388 14052 18697 16736 Broiler Exports Japan 18542 19583 14945 14857 23208 Mexico 24148 20705 22610 23720 20603 Hong Kong 84836 82472 88718 86709 84827 Singapore 792 975 1360 1009 1581 Canada 10488 9987 10457 11955 11888 Russia 186887 180613 122502 147152 2150 Total 474640 470756 424943 415025 243299 Turkey Exports Mexico 19389 25884 19881 20089 25453 S. Korea 132 48 380 503 432 Russia 13095 9688 8108 5501 553 Hong Kong 2460 2862 2611 3964 4378 Total 41637 46284 37835 35266 36471 Shell Egg Exports 7757 8247 8412 7927 9715 U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Annual Totals Jan - Jan - 1996 1997 Sept'97 Sept'98 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 544,996 639,420 508,178 632,208 New Zealand 503,657 576,044 496,997 520,262 Canada 585,751 711,454 512,168 603,122 Brazil 86,901 94,766 72,362 99,072 Argentina 153,398 146,657 101,873 78,513 Central America 111,107 93,254 70,917 38,006 Other 86,363 81,344 65,106 41,013 Total 2,072,173 2,342,939 1,827,600 2,012,195 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 1,015,778 1,053,553 784,385 857,505 Canada 295,424 282,725 213,433 190,618 Mexico 172,246 312,583 214,479 298,478 Korea, Rep. 203,796 261,673 198,196 88,000 Caribbean 12,924 12,979 9,081 14,955 Other 178,046 212,165 148,183 150,109 Total 1,878,214 2,135,677 1,567,757 1,599,665 Cattle Imports Head Mexico 456,246 669,409 364,251 385,679 Canada 1,509,136 1,376,814 1,054,258 1,029,252 Over 700 lbs 1,374,583 1,200,642 925,703 925,719 500-700 lbs. 74,293 107,650 83,222 41,253 Total 1,965,448 2,046,352 1,418,527 1,415,016 Cattle Exports Mexico 115,249 235,121 170,761 129,501 Canada 40,722 41,189 27,494 51,436 Total 174,307 282,344 202,465 186,428 Lamb Imports Carcass wt., thousand lb. Australia 26,423 32,968 24,450 25,688 New Zealand 23,970 26,417 20,955 22,660 Total 50,701 60,428 46,099 48,732 Mutton Imports 21,751 22,607 17,730 27,088 -------------------------------------------------------------------- Customs Service Product wt., metric tons YTD imports under WTO - 11/16/97 11/16/98 % of Quota Canada 227,735 258,686 NA TRQ Countries 403,459 446,151 64 Australia 182,871 234,874 62 New Zealand 175,912 181,858 85 Argentina 1,296 5,025 25 Uruguay 16,195 10,088 50 -------------------------------------------------------------------- Annual Totals 1996 1997 Jan- Jan- Sept '97 Sept '98 Pork Imports Carcass wt., thousand lb. Canada 437,397 434,228 317,042 337,333 Denmark 122,211 123,839 95,275 97,203 Poland 10,525 15,002 9,901 13,708 Hungary 8,761 8,702 6,782 7,613 Netherlands 8,479 8,118 5,663 6,707 Other 31,511 42,206 29,812 27,626 Total 618,884 632,095 464,475 490,190 Pork Exports Japan 500,518 461,946 340,908 370,658 Canada 94,374 125,325 89,792 99,952 Mexico 69,820 86,988 59,417 99,411 Caribbean 11,934 12,200 8,211 14,261 Other 293,259 357,154 241,495 348,377 Total 969,905 1,043,613 739,822 932,659 Hog Imports Head Canada 2,778,741 3,178,260 2,247,107 3,108,539 Under 110 lb 2,779,175 987,359 740,694 1,046,716 Total 2,779,175 3,179,578 2,248,275 3,109,032 Hog Exports Total 55,883 54,647 35,906 110,264 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 243,015 202,925 147,133 169,186 Mexico 218,203 248,332 181,314 201,896 Hong Kong 962,882 874,883 643,595 683,654 Singapore 49,655 34,845 26,292 12,539 Canada 74,813 119,397 89,561 95,678 Russia 1,881,273 2,056,427 1,504,370 1,314,437 Total 4,420,144 4,664,204 3,410,931 3,666,721 Turkey Exports Mexico 167,694 196,678 133,799 166,623 Russia 132,040 80,308 59,944 64,764 S. Korea 22,665 24,722 20,042 2,147 Hong Kong 25,487 125,625 94,626 28,491 Total 437,793 598,427 438,629 324,246 Shell thousand dz. Egg Exports 113,837 99,544 70,495 74,083 U.S. dairy situation at a glance 1995 1996 1997 Milk production: Production (Mil. lb., 20 States) 131,780 131,343 133,861 Milk cow (Thou., 20 States) 7,862 7,818 7,759 Milk per cow (Lb., 20 States) 16,762 16,847 17,254 Production (Mil. lb., U.S. est.) 155,424 154,259 156,603 Milk prices (Dol/cwt): All milk 12.74 14.88 13.34 Milk eligible for fluid use 12.78 14.95 13.38 Manufacturing grade milk 11.78 13.38 12.18 Basic Formula Price (3.5% fat) 11.83 13.39 12.05 Slaughter Cow, WI (Dol/cwt): 38.11 33.00 36.93 Wholesale prices (Cts/lb): Butter, Central States 1/ 81.9 108.2 116.2 American cheese, WI assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 132.8 149.1 132.4 Barrels 127.3 141.7 125.2 Nonfat dry milk, Central States 108.6 122.2 110.0 Retail prices: Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) 152.4 156.9 160.5 All food (1982-1984=100) 148.4 153.3 157.3 Dairy products (1982-1984=100) 132.8 142.1 145.5 Fluid milk (Dec 1997=100) NA NA NA Other dairy products (Dec 1997=100) NA NA NA Dairy product output (Mil. lb): Butter 1,264.5 1,174.5 1,151.3 American cheese 3,131.4 3,280.8 3,285.2 Other-than-American cheese 3,785.5 3,936.7 4,043.8 Frozen products (Mil. gal) 2/ 1,229.6 1,240.9 1,281.4 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 95,633 95,013 96,218 Nonfat dry milk 1,233.0 1,061.8 1,217.6 Beginning stocks (Mil. lb): Commercial butter 12.2 15.8 13.4 Commercial American cheese 309.5 306.6 379.6 Other cheese 126.8 105.3 107.3 Manufacturers' nonfat dry milk 103.5 70.6 71.1 All commercial (milkfat basis 3/) 4,263 4,099 4,704 All commercial (skim solids basis 3/) 5,712 5,037 5,753 All Government (milkfat basis 3/) 1,497 69 10 All Government (skim solids basis 3/) 341 172 7 Commercial disappearance (Mil. lb): Butter 1,186 1,180 1,109 American cheese 3,149 3,230 3,269 Other-than-American cheese 4,126 4,243 4,366 Nonfat dry milk 923 1,009 895 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 154,835 154,989 156,595 USDA net removals (Mil. lb): Butter 78.5 0.1 38.4 Cheese 6.1 4.6 11.3 Nonfat dry milk 343.8 57.2 298.0 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 2,106 87 1,090 All products (skim solids basis 3/) 4,374 747 3,681 Imports (Mil. lb, milkfat basis 3/) 2,936 2,911 2,698 International market prices (Dol/mt): Butter 2,251 1,837 1,861 Nonfat dry milk 2,143 1,979 1,738 1/ Grade AA Chicago before June 1998. 2/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, and sherbert. 3/ Milk equivalent. NA = Not Available. U.S. dairy situation at a glance Aug-97 Sep-97 Oct-97 Nov-97 Milk production: Production (Mil. lb., 20 States) 11,213 10,671 10,977 10,591 Milk cow (Thou., 20 States) 7,757 7,752 7,750 7,737 Milk per cow (Lb., 20 States) 1,446 1,377 1,416 1,369 Production (Mil. lb., U.S. est.) 13,058 12,423 12,818 12,363 Milk prices (Dol/cwt): All milk 12.70 13.10 14.10 14.70 Milk eligible for fluid use 12.80 13.10 14.10 14.70 Manufacturing grade milk 11.90 12.70 13.20 13.60 Basic Formula Price (3.5% fat) 12.07 12.79 12.83 12.96 Slaughter Cow, WI (Dol/cwt): 37.00 36.25 35.40 33.06 Wholesale prices (Cts/lb): Butter, Central States 1/ 110.5 109.3 142.8 159.3 American cheese, WI assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 137.6 141.4 142.4 143.8 Barrels 129.4 133.6 136.3 134.9 Nonfat dry milk, Central States 107.2 107.1 106.9 107.1 Retail prices: Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) 160.8 161.2 161.6 161.5 All food (1982-1984=100) 157.6 157.9 158.2 158.5 Dairy products (1982-1984=100) 143.4 143.5 145.7 147.0 Fluid milk (Dec 1997=100) NA NA NA NA Other dairy products (Dec 1997=100) NA NA NA NA Dairy product output (Mil. lb): Butter 68.8 79.3 83.3 89.1 American cheese 260.0 261.2 260.0 248.5 Other-than-American cheese 336.5 343.0 355.5 346.0 Frozen products (Mil. gal) 2/ 119.2 103.3 99.7 80.5 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 7,669 7,690 7,624 7,214 Nonfat dry milk 90.2 77.4 72.6 75.2 Beginning stocks (Mil. lb): Commercial butter 84.9 68.9 43.4 26.2 Commercial American cheese 469.0 459.2 433.8 414.7 Other cheese 135.9 122.8 109.6 90.2 Manufacturers' nonfat dry milk 158.7 154.6 133.9 114.8 All commercial (milkfat basis 3/) 7,354 6,813 5,939 5,205 All commercial (skim solids basis 3/) 7,984 7,703 7,097 6,456 All Government (milkfat basis 3/) 31 32 19 16 All Government (skim solids basis 3/) 55 84 99 171 Commercial disappearance (Mil. lb): Butter 81.3 101.0 97.0 95.2 American cheese 272.1 287.9 279.6 259.8 Other-than-American cheese 373.5 381.4 404.5 396.1 Nonfat dry milk 59.8 63.9 66.8 57.3 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 13,604 13,305 13,594 12,886 USDA net removals (Mil. lb): Butter 3.6 3.9 3.5 5.2 Cheese 0.6 0.4 1.2 0.8 Nonfat dry milk 35.1 34.7 24.9 33.3 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 101 103 102 142 All products (skim solids basis 3/) 425 417 312 412 Imports (Mil. lb, milkfat basis 3/) 228 228 266 275 International market prices (Dol/mt): Butter 1,844 2,008 2,165 2,194 Nonfat dry milk 1,620 1,694 1,729 1,731 1/ Grade AA Chicago before June 1998. 2/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, and sherbert. 3/ Milk equivalent. NA = Not Available. U.S. dairy situation at a glance Dec-97 Jan-98 Feb-98 Mar-98 Milk production: Production (Mil. lb., 20 States) 11,118 11,316 10,434 11,722 Milk cow (Thou., 20 States) 7,732 7,730 7,726 7,725 Milk per cow (Lb., 20 States) 1,438 1,464 1,351 1,517 Production (Mil. lb., U.S. est.) 12,973 13,261 12,222 13,726 Milk prices (Dol/cwt): All milk 14.80 14.70 14.70 14.40 Milk eligible for fluid use 14.80 14.70 14.80 14.50 Manufacturing grade milk 13.60 13.50 13.50 12.90 Basic Formula Price (3.5% fat) 13.29 13.25 13.32 12.81 Slaughter Cow, WI (Dol/cwt): 34.75 36.31 37.44 37.25 Wholesale prices (Cts/lb): Butter, Central States 1/ 133.4 117.8 139.8 134.1 American cheese, WI assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 146.1 144.5 144.7 138.8 Barrels 129.2 134.7 143.6 135.3 Nonfat dry milk, Central States 107.4 105.9 105.2 104.7 Retail prices: Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) 161.3 161.6 161.9 162.2 All food (1982-1984=100) 158.7 159.9 159.4 159.7 Dairy products (1982-1984=100) 147.8 148.3 147.7 148.4 Fluid milk (Dec 1997=100) NA 99.8 100.2 100.7 Other dairy products (Dec 1997=100) NA 100.9 99.4 100.1 Dairy product output (Mil. lb): Butter 106.0 113.5 102.7 100.8 American cheese 278.6 283.2 261.1 285.2 Other-than-American cheese 349.3 332.5 313.0 360.0 Frozen products (Mil. gal) 2/ 80.6 83.3 91.7 109.4 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 7,801 8,009 7,600 8,297 Nonfat dry milk 102.0 103.7 97.0 107.3 Beginning stocks (Mil. lb): Commercial butter 15.0 20.5 34.0 44.1 Commercial American cheese 405.3 0.0 411.7 410.5 Other cheese 68.9 70.0 81.7 98.8 Manufacturers' nonfat dry milk 100.6 103.3 104.1 105.3 All commercial (milkfat basis 3/) 4,697 4,889 5,306 5,640 All commercial (skim solids basis 3/) 5,968 6,080 6,245 6,415 All Government (milkfat basis 3/) 19 18 15 16 All Government (skim solids basis 3/) 257 258 286 310 Commercial disappearance (Mil. lb): Butter 95.4 98.3 92.1 89.7 American cheese 276.0 282.0 263.1 275.8 Other-than-American cheese 384.9 337.0 312.5 383.9 Nonfat dry milk 70.4 65.4 64.1 96.7 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 12,855 12,818 11,937 13,532 USDA net removals (Mil. lb): Butter 5.4 3.3 1.5 0.7 Cheese 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 Nonfat dry milk 31.5 37.5 31.7 24.7 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 147 108 62 40 All products (skim solids basis 3/) 392 468 393 309 Imports (Mil. lb, milkfat basis 3/) 342 196 215 310 International market prices (Dol/mt): Butter 2,187 2,091 1,888 1,844 Nonfat dry milk 1,649 1,560 1,510 1,480 1/ Grade AA Chicago before June 1998. 2/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, and sherbert. 3/ Milk equivalent. NA = Not Available. U.S. dairy situation at a glance Apr-98 May-98 Jun-98 Jul-98 Milk production: Production (Mil. lb., 20 States) 11,591 12,067 11,446 11,345 Milk cow (Thou., 20 States) 7,735 7,750 7,753 7,750 Milk per cow (Lb., 20 States) 1,499 1,557 1,476 1,464 Production (Mil. lb., U.S. est.) 13,520 14,070 13,341 13,223 Milk prices (Dol/cwt): All milk 14.00 13.20 14.00 14.10 Milk eligible for fluid use 14.00 13.30 14.00 14.10 Manufacturing grade milk 12.10 11.30 13.00 14.00 Basic Formula Price (3.5% fat) 12.01 10.88 13.10 14.77 Slaughter Cow, WI (Dol/cwt): 37.70 38.38 37.44 37.25 Wholesale prices (Cts/lb): Butter, Central States 1/ 136.4 153.2 186.7 203.1 American cheese, WI assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 129.7 123.0 151.3 162.6 Barrels 125.1 120.8 146.3 153.4 Nonfat dry milk, Central States 104.3 103.5 102.9 103.0 Retail prices: Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) 162.5 162.8 163.0 163.2 All food (1982-1984=100) 159.8 160.3 160.1 160.5 Dairy products (1982-1984=100) 148.5 148.1 148.1 148.2 Fluid milk (Dec 1997=100) 100.3 100.3 99.3 98.4 Other dairy products (Dec 1997=100) 99.9 99.9 101.1 101.3 Dairy product output (Mil. lb): Butter 103.0 92.9 72.6 67.1 American cheese 289.7 293.1 287.8 277.3 Other-than-American cheese 351.6 360.0 353.3 335.3 Frozen products (Mil. gal) 2/ 115.4 118.9 132.2 135.0 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 8,521 8,579 8,260 7,973 Nonfat dry milk 120.4 121.3 104.2 90.2 Beginning stocks (Mil. lb): Commercial butter 55.7 67.0 72.4 60.3 Commercial American cheese 421.0 441.4 442.6 449.6 Other cheese 98.2 103.1 108.8 133.6 Manufacturers' nonfat dry milk 92.7 113.1 132.0 129.3 All commercial (milkfat basis 3/) 5,990 6,460 6,663 6,637 All commercial (skim solids basis 3/) 6,375 6,859 7,178 7,448 All Government (milkfat basis 3/) 20 28 26 27 All Government (skim solids basis 3/) 427 568 646 808 Commercial disappearance (Mil. lb): Butter 92.4 88 89.2 86.8 American cheese 272.3 295.1 282.9 269.0 Other-than-American cheese 368.1 377.9 352.2 363.0 Nonfat dry milk 73.1 65.4 80.1 69.8 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 13,192 14,026 13,612 13,709 USDA net removals (Mil. lb): Butter 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 Cheese 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 Nonfat dry milk 28.1 37.9 29.9 38.6 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 26 24 13 15 All products (skim solids basis 3/) 339 450 355 457 Imports (Mil. lb, milkfat basis 3/) 279 298 369 533 International market prices (Dol/mt): Butter 1,835 1,838 1,933 1,988 Nonfat dry milk 1,491 1,493 1,523 1,437 1/ Grade AA Chicago before June 1998. 2/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, and sherbert. 3/ Milk equivalent. NA = Not Available. U.S. dairy situation at a glance Aug-98 Sep-98 Oct-98 Milk production: Production (Mil. lb., 20 States) 11,160 10,706 11,124 Milk cow (Thou., 20 States) 7,753 7,749 7,747 Milk per cow (Lb., 20 States) 1,439 1,382 1,436 Production (Mil. lb., U.S. est.) 13,002 12,469 12,930 Milk prices (Dol/cwt): All milk 15.40 16.60 17.30 Milk eligible for fluid use 15.50 16.70 17.30 Manufacturing grade milk 14.60 15.40 16.20 Basic Formula Price (3.5% fat) 14.99 15.10 16.04 Slaughter Cow, WI (Dol/cwt): 35.69 34.20 31.44 Wholesale prices (Cts/lb): Butter, Central States 1/ 216.6 270.8 242.3 American cheese, WI assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 166.9 171.0 183.5 Barrels 149.9 164.6 178.5 Nonfat dry milk, Central States 104.6 110.1 111.8 Retail prices: Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) 163.4 163.6 164.0 All food (1982-1984=100) 161.0 161.1 162.0 Dairy products (1982-1984=100) 150.5 152.9 155.0 Fluid milk (Dec 1997=100) 100.7 102.8 103.6 Other dairy products (Dec 1997=100) 101.9 103.6 103.9 Dairy product output (Mil. lb): Butter 61.5 67.2 NA American cheese 261.1 246.1 NA Other-than-American cheese 334.9 335.5 NA Frozen products (Mil. gal) 2/ 122.0 112.1 NA All products (milkfat basis 3/) 7,548 7,326 NA Nonfat dry milk 72.5 63.0 NA Beginning stocks (Mil. lb): Commercial butter 50.7 40.9 35.0 Commercial American cheese 459.8 441.4 414.8 Other cheese 134.4 135.3 133.9 Manufacturers' nonfat dry milk 112.3 78.1 64.4 All commercial (milkfat basis 3/) 6,554 6,173 5,782 All commercial (skim solids basis 3/) 7,387 6,817 6,376 All Government (milkfat basis 3/) 38 40 40 All Government (skim solids basis 3/) 1,072 1,264 1,322 Commercial disappearance (Mil. lb): Butter 84.6 NA NA American cheese 281.1 NA NA Other-than-American cheese 360.9 NA NA Nonfat dry milk 85.5 NA NA All products (milkfat basis 3/) 13,815 NA NA USDA net removals (Mil. lb): Butter 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cheese 0.8 0.7 0.5 Nonfat dry milk 28.2 19.9 15.2 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 14 15 13 All products (skim solids basis 3/) 337 243 188 Imports (Mil. lb, milkfat basis 3/) 559 NA NA International market prices (Dol/mt): Butter 1,991 2,020 1,940 Nonfat dry milk 1,424 1,408 1,313 1/ Grade AA Chicago before June 1998. 2/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, and sherbert. ECONOMIC INDICATOR FORECASTS 1/ 1997 1998 III IV Annual I II GDP, chain wtd 7,222 7,290 7,189 7,356 7,491 (bil. 1992 dollars) CPI-U, annual rate (pct.) 2.0 2.5 1.9 0.5 2.0 Unemployment (pct.) 4.9 4.7 5.0 4.7 4.4 Interest (pct.) 3-month Treasury bill 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.0 10-year Treasury bond 6.2 5.9 6.4 6.8 5.6 yield 1/ Source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, August 1998 1998 1999 III IV Annual I II GDP, chain wtd 7,530 7,587 7,418 7,630 7,669 (bil. 1992 dollars) CPI-U, annual rate (pct.) 2.0 2.4 1.7 2.5 2.5 Unemployment (pct.) 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 Interest (pct.) 3-month Treasury bill 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.1 10-year Treasury bond 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 yield 1999 III IV Annual GDP, chain wtd 7,716 NA 7,687 (bil. 1992 dollars) CPI-U, annual rate (pct.) 2.5 NA 2.5 Unemployment (pct.) 4.7 NA 4.7 Interest (pct.) 3-month Treasury bill 5.2 NA 5.1 10-year Treasury bond 5.8 NA 5.8 yield DAIRY FORECASTS 1997 1998 III IV Annual I II Milk cows (thous,) 9,251 9,206 9,258 9,186 9,205 Milk per cow (pounds) 4,195 4,144 16,915 4,268 4,447 Milk production(bil.pounds) 38.8 38.2 156.6 39.2 40.9 Commercial use (bil. pounds) milkfat basis 40.4 39.3 156.6 38.3 40.8 skim solids basis 39.1 38.7 154.3 38.0 39.3 Net removals (bil. pounds) milkfat basis 0.3 0.4 1.1 0.2 0.1 skim solids basis 1.1 1.1 3.7 1.2 1.1 Prices (dol./cwt) All milk 12.63 14.53 13.34 14.60 13.73 Basic Formula Price 11.91 13.03 12.05 13.13 12.00 1998 1999 III IV Annual I II Milk cows (thous,) 9,201 9,180 9,195 9,160 9,140 Milk per cow (pounds) 4,205 4,195 17,115 4,340 4,540 Milk production(bil.pounds) 38.7 38.5 157.4 39.8 41.5 Commercial use (bil. pounds) milkfat basis 40.7 40.3 160.1 39.2 40.2 skim solids basis 39.3 39.2 155.9 39.0 39.7 Net removals (bil. pounds) milkfat basis 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 skim solids basis 1.0 0.7 4.0 0.8 0.9 Prices (dol./cwt) All milk 15.37 17.35 15.25 15.25 12.90 -17.65 -15.35 -15.85 -13.80 Basic Formula Price 14.95 15.70 13.95 12.65 11.30 -16.00 -14.05 -13.25 -12.20 1999 III IV Annual Milk cows (thous,) 9,125 9,115 9,135 Milk per cow (pounds) 4,330 4,320 17,530 Milk production(bil.pounds) 39.5 39.4 160.1 Commercial use (bil. pounds) milkfat basis 41.7 40.5 161.6 skim solids basis 40.3 40.0 159.0 Net removals (bil. pounds) milkfat basis 0.0 0.5 0.7 skim solids basis 1.1 0.8 3.6 Prices (dol./cwt) All milk 12.60 14.10 13.70 -13.60 -15.10 -14.60 Basic Formula Price 11.55 12.50 12.00 -12.55 -13.50 -12.90 RED MEAT AND POULTRY FORECASTS 1997 1998 III IV Annual I II Production, million lb. Beef 6,603 6,258 25,384 6,215 6,463 Pork 4,196 4,766 17,244 4,687 4,430 Broilers 6,864 6,831 27,271 6,845 6,991 Turkeys 1,411 1,428 5,478 1,290 1,321 Total Red Meat & Poultry 19,287 19,525 76,322 19,271 19,418 Table eggs, mil doz. 1,354 1,412 5,456 1,382 1,374 Per capita consumption, Retail lb. Beef 17.1 16.3 66.9 16.7 17.2 Pork 12.0 13.4 48.7 12.7 12.3 Broilers 18.6 17.7 72.7 17.7 18.3 Turkeys 4.2 6.0 17.6 3.9 3.9 Total Red Meat & Poultry 52.5 53.9 208.6 51.7 52.3 Eggs, number 59.5 61.8 239.4 60.1 60.1 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 65.65 66.61 66.32 61.73 64.16 Feeder steers, Ok City, $/cwt. 80.44 78.98 76.19 75.49 74.00 Bng Ut Cows, S. Falls, $/cwt. 35.20 32.80 34.27 38.28 39.15 Barrows & gilts, Ia/Mn., $/cwt. 54.45 43.53 51.36 34.74 39.42 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 62.0 54.0 58.8 56.4 61.0 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 68.2 66.5 64.9 55.1 59.1 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 79.7 88.2 81.2 79.0 66.5 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 600 568 2,136 500 537 Beef & veal imports 576 515 2,343 644 682 Pork exports 272 304 1,044 296 348 Pork imports 157 168 633 154 153 Broiler exports 1,223 1,253 4,664 1,241 1,342 Turkey exports 162 160 598 100 121 1998 1999 III IV Annual I II Production, million lb. Beef 6,636 6,275 25,589 5,925 5,975 Pork 4,627 5,100 18,844 4,800 4,700 Broilers 6,934 7,000 27,770 7,100 7,400 Turkeys 1,301 1,325 5,237 1,175 1,325 Total Red Meat & Poultry 19,696 19,919 78,303 19,228 19,603 Table eggs, mil doz. 1,396 1,450 5,602 1,400 1,400 Per capita consumption, Retail lb. Beef 17.6 16.5 68.0 15.7 15.9 Pork 13.0 14.2 52.3 13.1 12.8 Broilers 18.6 18.9 73.4 19.3 19.9 Turkeys 4.2 5.9 18.0 3.4 3.9 Total Red Meat & Poultry 54.0 56.0 214.0 52.1 53.0 Eggs, number 60.9 63.0 244.1 60.3 60.4 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 58.97 64-66 62.47 69-73 72-78 Feeder steers, Ok City, $/cwt. 67.89 72-74 72.60 78-82 82-88 Bng Ut Cows, S. Falls, $/cwt. 35.21 34-36 36.91 40-44 44-50 Barrows & gilts, Ia/Mn., $/cwt. 33.30 23-25 32.87 32-34 35-37 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 70.4 62-64 62.70 56-60 57-61 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 63.4 69-71 61.90 54-58 58-62 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 76.0 82-84 76.10 73-77 62-68 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 540 558 2,135 585 595 Beef & veal imports 700 600 2,626 700 760 Pork exports 301 315 1,260 365 355 Pork imports 175 178 660 170 165 Broiler exports 1,100 1,000 4,683 1000 1,100 Turkey exports 100 100 421 100 100 1999 III IV Annual Production, million lb. Beef 6,150 5,875 23,925 Pork 4,800 5,125 19,425 Broilers 7,400 7,300 29,200 Turkeys 1,375 1,375 5,250 Total Red Meat & Poultry 19,914 19,893 78,639 Table eggs, mil doz. 1,425 1,475 5,700 Per capita consumption, Retail lb. Beef 16.2 15.2 63.0 Pork 13.5 14.1 53.5 Broilers 19.5 19.1 77.7 Turkeys 4.3 6.0 17.5 Total Red Meat & Poultry 54.0 54.9 214.0 Eggs, number 61.3 63.5 245.5 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 69-75 69-75 70-75 Feeder steers, Ok City, $/cwt. 81-87 82-88 81-86 Bng Ut Cows, S. Falls, $/cwt. 45-49 44-48 44-46 Barrows & gilts, Ia/Mn., $/cwt. 36-38 29-31 33-35 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 58-62 54-58 56-60 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 61-67 65-71 60-64 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 67-73 77-83 70-75 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 555 580 2,315 Beef & veal imports 725 605 2,790 Pork exports 320 310 1,340 Pork imports 180 185 700 Broiler exports 1,200 1,225 4,525 Turkey exports 110 120 430 Hogs on farms, farrowings, and pig crops, United States ___________________________________________________ ___________________--------------------------------------------- Inventory 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 ___________________--------------------------------------------- 1,000 Head Dec. 1 inventory /1 57,904 59,990 58,264 56,141 60,915 Breeding 7,165 7,060 6,839 6,667 6,986 Market 50,739 52,930 51,425 49,474 53,929 Under 60 lb 19,173 19,556 18,881 18,439 20,104 60-119 lb 12,659 13,087 12,808 12,221 13,264 120-179 lb 10,212 10,941 10,702 10,291 11,178 180 + lb 8,695 9,346 9,034 8,522 9,383 March 1 inventory 57,350 58,465 56,340 55,838 60,270 Breeding 7,210 6,998 6,765 6,842 6,986 Market 50,140 51,467 49,575 48,996 53,284 Under 60 lb 18,780 19,251 18,790 18,575 20,239 60-119 lb 12,190 12,498 11,980 11,713 12,790 120-179 lb 10,430 10,594 10,095 10,032 10,812 180 + lb 8,740 9,124 8,710 8,676 9,423 June 1 inventory 60,715 59,560 57,150 58,263 61,950 Breeding 7,565 7,180 6,860 6,960 7,018 Market 53,150 52,380 50,290 51,303 54,932 Under 60 lb 22,125 21,270 20,245 20,337 21,360 60-119 lb 13,145 13,060 12,690 12,774 13,687 120-179 lb 9,825 9,865 9,795 10,127 11,080 180 + lb 8,055 8,185 7,560 8,061 8,805 Sept. 1 inventory 62,320 60,540 58,150 61,163 62,900 Breeding 7,415 6,898 6,765 6,944 6,936 Market 54,905 53,642 51,385 54,219 55,964 Under 60 lb 20,790 20,235 19,320 20,876 21,210 60-119 lb 13,960 13,532 12,780 13,531 13,743 120-179 lb 11,170 10,985 10,590 10,835 11,511 180 + lb 8,985 8,890 8,695 8,976 9,500 Sows farrowing Dec.-Feb. 1/ 2,885 2,886 2,757 2,702 2,918 March-May 3,390 3,170 2,955 2,944 3,070 Dec.-May 1/ 6,275 6,056 5,712 5,646 5,988 June-August 3,107 2,976 2,758 2,959 3,019 Sept.-Nov. 2,997 2,815 2,717 2,929 2,992 /2 June-Nov. 6,104 5,791 5,475 5,888 6,011 /2 Pig crop Dec.-Feb. 1/ 23,368 23,851 23,161 23,264 25,369 March-May 27,984 26,373 25,040 25,471 26,849 Dec.-May 1/ 51,352 50,224 48,201 48,735 52,218 June-August 25,547 24,813 23,597 25,796 26,277 Sept.-Nov. 24,517 23,479 23,159 25,316 June-Nov. 50,064 48,292 46,756 51,112 number Pigs per litter Dec.-Feb. 1/ 8.10 8.27 8.40 8.61 8.69 March-May 8.26 8.32 8.47 8.65 8.75 Dec.-May 1/ 8.18 8.30 8.44 8.63 8.72 June-August 8.22 8.34 8.56 8.72 8.70 Sept.-Nov. 8.18 8.34 8.52 8.64 June-Nov. 8.20 8.34 8.54 8.68 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ December preceding year. 2/ Intentions Poultry and egg costs and returns NET RETURNS 12-CITY BEFORE LIVEWEIGHT BASIS RTC BASIS PRICE INTEREST & Date Feed Total Production Total OVERHEAD Cost Cost ----------------cents / po--------------------------- BROILERS Sep-97 18.82 29.17 38.38 52.48 59.86 7.38 Oct-97 19.10 29.45 38.75 52.85 55.39 2.54 Nov-97 19.16 29.51 38.83 52.93 54.62 1.69 Dec-97 18.13 28.48 37.47 51.57 52.25 0.68 Jan-98 18.57 28.92 38.05 52.15 54.66 2.51 Feb-98 17.81 28.16 37.05 51.15 56.40 5.25 Mar-98 17.37 27.72 36.47 50.57 58.10 7.53 Apr-98 17.08 27.43 36.09 50.19 58.82 8.63 May-98 16.58 26.93 35.43 49.53 60.08 10.55 Jun-98 15.83 26.18 34.45 48.55 64.26 15.71 Jul-98 15.70 26.05 34.27 48.37 68.53 20.16 Aug-98 15.77 26.12 34.37 48.47 72.13 23.66 Sep-98 15.75 26.10 34.34 48.44 70.53 22.09 Oct-98 14.05 24.40 32.11 46.21 68.04 21.83 Nov-98 13.46 23.81 31.33 45.43 Dec-98 13.85 24.20 31.84 45.94 3-REGION WHOLESALE TURKEYS PRICE Sep-97 28.76 42.46 53.07 69.37 65.54 -3.83 Oct-97 27.48 41.18 51.47 67.77 65.29 -2.48 Nov-97 27.94 41.64 52.05 68.35 68.64 0.29 Dec-97 28.06 41.76 52.20 68.50 62.34 -6.16 Jan-98 26.12 39.82 49.77 66.07 55.63 -10.44 Feb-98 26.92 40.62 50.78 67.08 53.87 -13.21 Mar-98 25.55 39.25 49.07 65.37 55.37 -10.00 Apr-98 24.73 38.43 48.04 64.34 57.02 -7.32 May-98 24.21 37.91 47.39 63.69 57.31 -6.38 Jun-98 23.29 36.99 46.23 62.53 59.38 -3.15 Jul-98 22.01 35.71 44.64 60.94 62.24 1.30 Aug-98 21.77 35.47 44.34 60.64 64.39 3.75 Sep-98 21.94 35.64 44.55 60.85 66.89 6.04 Oct-98 21.97 35.67 44.59 60.89 72.16 11.27 Nov-98 19.00 32.70 40.88 57.18 Dec-98 17.99 31.69 39.61 55.91 WHOLESALE FEED TOTAL TOTAL 12-METRO EGGS COST Production COST PRICE Sep-97 33.10 51.30 71.80 85.00 13.20 Oct-97 33.11 51.31 71.81 79.47 7.66 Nov-97 31.75 49.95 70.45 99.53 29.08 Dec-97 32.46 50.66 71.16 93.92 22.76 Jan-98 31.11 49.31 69.81 85.73 15.92 Feb-98 30.49 48.69 69.19 76.08 6.89 Mar-98 30.03 48.23 68.73 85.11 16.38 Apr-98 29.22 47.42 67.92 76.85 8.93 May-98 27.64 45.84 66.34 62.12 -4.22 Jun-98 27.35 45.55 66.05 72.27 6.22 Jul-98 27.33 45.53 66.03 72.46 6.43 Aug-98 26.88 45.08 65.58 80.26 14.68 Sep-98 23.54 41.74 62.24 79.17 16.93 Oct-98 22.31 40.51 61.01 81.67 20.66 Nov-98 23.29 41.49 61.99 Poultry supply, carcass weight 1/ - - - - - ProdNet RTC Begin- Year Federal Other produc- ning Im- Total Inspected tion stocks ports supply - - Million pounds - Broilers: 1996 26336 38 26124 560 4 26687 1997 I 6639 9 6583 641 1 7225 II 6937 9 6879 708 1 7588 III 6864 9 6806 703 2 7511 IV 6831 9 6774 546 1 7320 Year 27271 35 27041 641 5 27687 1998 I 6845 9 6786 607 1 7394 II 6991 9 6931 666 1 7598 III 2 6934 9 6874 584 1 7459 IV 2/ 7000 9 6940 583 1 7524 Year 2/ 27770 36 27531 607 5 28142 1999 I 2/ 7100 9 7037 625 1 7663 II 2 7400 10 7335 625 1 7961 III 2 7400 10 7335 635 1 7971 Year 2/ 29200 38 28943 625 4 29572 Other chicken: 1996 487 5 491 7 0 498 1997 I 123 0 123 6 0 129 II 138 0 139 7 0 146 III 124 0 124 8 0 132 IV 124 0 125 11 0 135 Year 509 2 510 6 0 516 1998 I 123 0 124 7 0 131 II 141 0 141 10 0 151 III 2/ 131 0 131 9 0 140 IV 2/ 125 0 125 8 0 133 Year 2/ 520 2 521 7 0 529 1999 I 2/ 135 0 135 7 0 142 II 2 145 1 145 5 0 150 III 2/ 135 0 135 10 0 145 Year 2/ 545 2 546 7 0 553 Turkey: 1996 5466 3 5401 271 1 5673 1997 I 1236 1 1221 328 0 1549 II 1404 1 1387 496 0 1884 III 1411 1 1394 668 0 2062 IV 1428 1 1410 771 0 2181 Year 5478 3 5412 328 1 5741 1998 I 1290 1 1274 415 0 1690 II 1321 1 1305 527 0 1832 III 2 1301 1 1285 656 0 1941 IV 2/ 1325 1 1309 697 0 2006 Year 2/ 5237 3 5174 415 1 5589 1999 I 2/ 1175 1 1161 300 0 1461 II 2 1325 1 1309 450 0 1759 III 2 1375 1 1358 600 0 1958 Year 2/ 5250 3 5186 300 1 5487 Total poultry: 1996 32289 46 32015 839 5 32859 1997 I 7997 12 7927 975 1 8903 II 8480 10 8405 1212 1 9617 III 8398 10 8323 1379 2 9705 IV 8383 10 8309 1327 1 9637 Year 33258 40 32964 975 6 33944 1998 I 8258 10 8184 1029 1 9215 II 8453 10 8377 1203 1 9582 III 2 8366 10 8291 1250 1 9541 IV 2 8450 10 8374 1288 1 9663 Year 2/ 33527 41 33226 1029 5 34260 1999 I 2/ 8410 10 8333 932 1 9267 II 2 8870 11 8789 1080 1 9870 III 2 8910 11 8828 1245 1 10074 Year 2/ 34995 42 34675 932 5 356117 1/ Totals may not add due to r 2/ Forecast Per capita Total consumption Year Ending disap- Carcass Retail Exports stocks pearanceweight weight - - - - - Million pounds Pound Pounds Broilers: 1996 4420 641 21626 81.4 70.8 1997 I 1090 708 5427 20.3 17.7 II 1098 703 5787 21.6 18.8 III 1223 546 5742 21.4 18.6 IV 1253 607 5460 20.3 17.6 Year 4664 607 22416 83.7 72.7 1998 I 1241 666 5487 20.4 17.7 II 1342 584 5672 21.0 18.3 III 2 1100 583 5776 21.3 18.5 IV 2/ 1000 625 5899 21.8 18.9 Year 2/ 4683 625 22834 84.5 73.4 1999 I 2/ 1000 625 6038 22.2 19.3 II 2 1100 635 6226 22.8 19.9 III 2 1200 645 6126 22.4 19.5 Year 2/ 4525 650 24397 89.4 77.7 Other chicken: 1996 265 6 228 0.9 0.9 1997 I 95 7 27 0.1 0.1 II 92 8 45 0.2 0.2 III 106 11 15 0.1 0.1 IV 90 7 38 0.1 0.1 Year 384 7 125 0.5 0.5 1998 I 109 10 12 0.0 0.0 II 112 9 30 0.1 0.1 III 2/ 107 8 26 0.1 0.1 IV 2/ 107 7 19 0.1 0.1 Year 2/ 435 7 87 0.3 0.3 1999 I 2/ 95 5 42 0.2 0.2 II 2 97 10 43 0.2 0.2 III 2/ 110 10 25 0.1 0.1 Year 2/ 412 5 136 0.5 0.5 Turkey: 1996 438 328 4907 18.5 18.5 1997 I 128 496 925 3.5 3.5 II 149 668 1067 4.0 4.0 III 162 771 1129 4.2 4.2 IV 160 415 1606 6.0 6.0 Year 598 415 4727 17.6 17.6 1998 I 100 527 1063 3.9 3.9 II 121 656 1055 3.9 3.9 III 2 100 697 1144 4.2 4.2 IV 2/ 100 300 1606 5.9 5.9 Year 2/ 421 300 4868 18.0 18.0 1999 I 2/ 100 450 911 3.4 3.4 II 2 100 600 1059 3.9 3.9 III 2 110 675 1173 4.3 4.3 Year 2/ 430 275 4782 17.5 17.5 Total poultry: 1996 5123 975 26761 100.8 90.1 1997 I 1313 1212 6379 23.9 21.2 II 1339 1379 6899 25.8 23.0 III 1491 1327 6886 25.7 22.9 IV 1503 1029 7105 26.4 23.8 Year 5646 1029 27269 101.8 90.8 1998 I 1450 1203 6562 24.4 21.7 II 1575 1250 6757 25.0 22.3 III 2 1307 1288 6946 25.7 22.9 IV 2 1207 932 7523 27.7 24.9 Year 2/ 5539 932 27789 102.8 91.7 1999 I 2/ 1195 1080 6992 25.7 22.8 II 2 1297 1245 7328 26.9 23.9 III 2 1420 1330 7324 26.8 23.9 Year 2/ 5367 930 29314 107.5 95.7 END_OF_FILE