LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY December 28, 1998 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIVESTOCK, DAIRY, AND POULTRY is published six times a year as a data release and six times with analysis and comment by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. This version contains data only. Because of a computer server failure containing our databases, this abbreviated ASCII document was created from last month's issue and secondary sources. It will be revised and published in regular PDF format at a later date when the problems are corrected. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- In response to requests for increased frequency of market analysis information, the Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Situation and Outlook Report will be electronically released monthly. The report will available from the World Wide Web (http://www.econ.ag.gov/Prodsrvs/rept-ldp.htm and click on Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Situation and Outlook Report) in Adobe Acrobat format (PDF files) or from the ERS autofax (202-694-5700 document #11515 for text and tables, #11511 for tables only). The contents of the issues will vary. The 1999 release schedule will be January 26, February 24, May 25, July 27, August 24, and November 23 for issues containing analytical content and tables. Data releases containing updates of the regular tables will be issued on March 23, April 27, June 29, September 28, October 26, and December 28. The reports should be available by 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time on the day of release. Principal Contributors - (202) 694-5180 Leland Southard, (Coordinator), Milton Madison (Poultry), David Harvey (Poultry Trade), Ron Gustafson, (Cattle), Mildred Haley (Pork Trade), Jim Miller (Dairy), Laverne Williams (Statistics) PRODUCTION INDICATORS 1998 1998 Nov. Sept. Oct. Nov./* 1,000 Head Cattle: On feed - 7 States, 1, 9390 7750 8376 9195 Net placements 2377 2203 2351 1662 Marketings 1545 1577 1532 1448 Broilers: Eggs in incubators (000) 549182 603518 581622 578853 Chicks hatched (000) /2 648088 692859 692913 673907 Hatching egg layers /1 52547 54157 54013 54312 Pullets placed (000) 6347 7313 7424 7306 Hvy-type hen slaughter 3962 5222 6206 5000 Turkeys: Eggs in incubators(000) 30964 26969 28047 27926 Poults placed (000) 23281 21124 22786 22417 Eggs: Table egg prod. (mil.dz) 467.58 455 77.6 473.8 Table egg layers, (000) 250477 252068 255335 259384 Table eggs/100 layers/1 72.6 72.7 71.6 71.9 Chicks hatched (000) /2 27846 38611 37000 30180 Lt.-type hen slaughter 7986 8156 7513 8000 ESTIMATED RETURNS 1997 1998 Dec. Oct. Nov. Dec/* Cents/lb. Great Plains cattle feedlot Breakeven price /3 69.12 63.44 60.35 NA Selling Price 65.91 61.54 62.23 59.50 Net margin -3.21 -1.90 1.88 NA N. Central hog farrow to finish Breakeven price /3 43.51 39.41 38.85 NA Selling price 39.85 26.98 17.80 14.00 Net margin -3.66 -12.43 -21.05 NA Broiler Wholesale cost 51.57 46.21 45.43 45.94 Wholesale price 52.25 68.04 64.13 60.00 Net margin .68 21.83 18.70 14.06 Turkey Wholesale cost 68.50 60.89 57.18 55.91 Wholesale price 62.63 72.16 74.15 69.00 Net margin -6.16 11.27 16.97 13.09 Egg Wholesale cost 71.16 61.01 61.99 63.33 Wholesale price 93.92 81.67 86.39 85.00 Net margin 22.76 20.66 24.40 21.67 /1 First of month /2 Last month estimated /3 Does not include capital replacement cost /* estimate LIVESTOCK PRICES Dec-97 Oct-98 Nov-98 Dec-98/* Cattle prices $/cwt. Steers, Choice, 11-13 cwt. Texas Panhandle 65.91 61.54 62.75 59.50 Nebraska Direct 65.53 62.00 62.25 59.00 Cows - Sioux Falls Utility breaking 35.91 34.93 33.91 37.00 Utility boning 34.50 31.60 30.83 33.75 Feeder Cattle - Oklahoma City Steers: Med. #1 500-550 lb. 90.72 75.14 80.00 80.25 600-650 lb. 83.28 71.67 71.99 72.50 750-800 lb. 81.00 70.26 69.08 68.50 Heifers: Med. #1 450-500 lb. 80.64 68.37 72.11 73.00 700-750 lb. 74.07 65.13 63.81 63.25 Hog prices Barrows and gilts 6 Markets 40.50 26.91 17.66 14.00 Iowa/S. Minn No. 1-3 39.85 26.98 17.80 14.00 Sows 6 Markets 34.08 20.98 16.09 11.00 Sheep & lamb prices San Angelo TX Slaughter lambs, Choice 83.52 67.20 63.33 70.75 Ewes, Good 48.42 33.75 36.04 45.50 Feeder lambs, Choice 97.17 70.10 74.17 77.75 GRAIN AND FEED PRICES Dec-97 Oct-98 Nov-98 Dec-98/* $/bu Corn, #2 Yellow, Cen. Ill 2.60 1.94 2.09 2.09 Wheat, HRW Ord., K.C. 3.64 3.17 3.30 3.20 SBM, 48% Solvent, Decatur 225.52 135.70 144.45 145.00 Alfalfa Hay, U.S. Avg 106.00 88.10 85.00 NA Grass Hay, U.S. Avg 76.30 72.50 69.30 NA /* Estimates WHOLESALE PRICES Dec-97 Sep-98 Oct-98 Nov-98 Dec-98/* Beef, Central U.S. $/cwt Boxed beef cutout Choice 1-3 550-700 lb. 101.50 99.28 102.08 102.61 97.50 Choice 1-3 700-850 lb. 100.43 96.66 102.08 101.44 97.00 Select 1-3 700-850 lb. 93.39 87.41 90.59 92.14 90.50 Canner-Cutter Cows 62.13 56.50 55.22 55.58 56.50 Bnls beef, 90% fresh 90.12 81.17 78.04 80.75 88.00 Importd bnls. beef 90% frz. 91.30 80.95 80.16 81.53 86.00 Hide & offal value 8.23 6.62 6.58 6.78 7.06 Veal carcass, 220-280 lb. 166.70 157.45 158.44 158.75 159.50 Pork, Central U.S. Pork cutout composite 57.76 50.72 48.18 42.09 37.50 Loins, 14-19 lb. BI 1/4" tr 79.44 97.23 99.63 79.90 70.25 Bellies, 12-14 lb. skin on 47.52 57.49 42.05 39.13 35.75 Hams, 23-27 lb. BI trmd. TS NA 45.01 44.75 34.47 32.50 Trimmings, 72% fresh 45.24 25.08 21.43 18.68 14.50 Lamb, East Coast 55 lb. Down, Choice 166.25 163.15 152.93 141.75 148.50 55-65 lb., Choice 164.25 171.15 157.18 141.75 145.25 cents/lb. Broilers 12 City Avg. 52.25 70.53 68.04 64.13 60.00 Georgia dock 54.58 70.15 68.26 66.06 63.00 Northeast Breast, boneless 144.58 224.00 181.81 170.16 156.00 Breast, Ribs on 68.99 112.68 95.26 89.26 78.00 Legs, whole 45.45 47.12 40.07 36.82 33.00 Leg quarters 28.93 27.72 21.60 20.18 18.00 Turkeys Eastern Region Toms, 14-22 lb. 62.73 69.25 73.68 76.21 68.00 Hens, 8-16 lb. 62.18 65.65 71.52 72.95 70.00 Breast, 4-8 lb. 99.00 93.84 98.69 100.00 99.00 Drumsticks 25.41 28.92 29.69 27.08 24.00 Wings, full cut 35.93 29.04 27.80 29.29 26.00 Eggs, grd A, lg, doz !2 City Metro 93.92 79.17 81.67 86.39 85.00 New York 90.26 77.02 78.90 83.60 83.00 /* Estimates MEAT STATISTICS Jan. - Jan. - 1998 Dec. '97 Dec. '98 Aug Sep Oct Nov. Dec./* Commercial production Million pounds Beef 25384 25610 2228 2197 2235 2004 2109 Veal 324 247 20 20 21 19 22 Pork 17244 18822 1505 1591 1757 1683 1800 Lamb 257 243 17 19 20 19 23 Total red meat 43209 44922 3770 3827 4033 3725 3954 Broilers 27271 27896 2266 2317 2474 2230 2375 Other chicken 509 521 43 42 45 39 43 Turkeys 5478 5248 413 430 474 430 425 Total poultry 33258 33665 2723 2788 2992 2699 2843 Total meat & poultry 76467 78587 6492 6615 7025 6424 6797 Jan. - Jan. - 1998 Dec '97 Dec.'98 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec./* Commercial slaughter/** Thousand head Cattle 39318 35385 3040 2992 3053 2775 2927 Steers 17529 17524 1554 1451 1406 1350 1419 Heifers 11528 11631 950 987 1070 860 884 Beef Cows 3575 3307 277 282 301 224 322 Dairy Cows 2989 2667 206 218 224 215 249 Bulls and stags 696 611 53 54 52 52 53 Calves 1575 1437 125 135 125 112 130 Sheep 3907 3748 275 306 323 298 360 Hogs 91960 100273 8168 8601 9349 8809 9365 Barrows & gilts 88409 96957 7822 8255 8994 8482 8995 Sows 2959 3492 314 301 314 292 335 Broilers 7735904 7831111 650835 654970 682591 625000 650000 Turkeys 290231 272251 22430 23086 24881 24000 21250 1998 Dec '97 Aug Sep Oct Nov. Dec/* F.I. dressed weight Pounds Cattle 711 739 741 739 729 728 Calves 184 160 162 171 171 168 Sheep 67 62 62 64 65 64 Hogs 191 185 186 189 192 193 Beginning cold storage stocks Million pounds Beef 378 303 307 323 358 329 Pork 334 415 393 389 412 441 Bellies 25 31 15 10 16 42 Hams 61 105 105 104 99 75 Total chicken 610 563 550 589 602 644 Turkey 439 703 709 703 661 298 Frozen eggs 10 12 9 8 9 9 /* Estimates with exception of Cold Storage /** Slaughter classes are estimated RETAIL PRICES & SPREADS Nov-97 Jul-98 Aug-98 Sep-98 Oct-98 Nov-98 Retail prices Cents/lb. Beef - Choice 278.0 278.5 279.4 274.2 275.0 280.0 Beef - All Fresh 253.4 251.9 255.1 250.0 251.9 251.7 Ground Beef 140.9 144.7 142.6 136.1 139.3 144.2 Rib roast 281.0 271.9 272.0 269.1 269.9 275.8 T-bone steak 589.1 597.9 609.3 600.0 604.1 602.4 Pork 231.3 231.0 230.9 231.2 230.2 226.9 Bacon 266.5 251.7 251.3 257.6 256.7 261.9 Chops 347.7 331.1 327.4 322.6 317.7 309.5 Sausage 210.0 236.2 240.5 242.6 245.3 242.6 Chicken - Composite 151.7 152.7 156.4 154.8 158.8 157.8 Whole, fresh 101.8 103.3 105.9 107.4 107.6 108.4 Breast - bone in 203.5 204.8 208.7 208.5 213.2 204.6 Leg quarter 124.6 125.2 129.1 125.5 130.0 130.1 Turkey; whole frozen 97.6 100.8 102.4 105.2 102.5 93.4 Eggs, Grade A, Large 109.0 97.1 105.3 102.2 104.8 107.7 Price indexes 1982-84=100 CPI - All 161.5 163.2 163.4 163.6 164.0 164.0 All food 158.5 160.5 161.0 161.1 162.0 162.1 All meat 144.6 141.8 142.2 141.6 141.3 141.4 Beef & veal 137.0 136.1 137.0 136.3 136.1 137.0 Pork 155.5 149.7 149.9 148.7 147.5 146.2 Poultry 157.4 156.6 158.9 159.3 161.1 159.6 Price Spreads Cents / retail lb. Beef Farm to wholesale 20.7 25.4 34.5 28.6 25.5 26.6 Wholesale to retail 117.8 124.5 118.8 121.0 118.6 121.9 Farmers share (%) 50.0 46.0 45.0 45.0 48.0 47.0 Pork Farm to wholesale 38.0 37.3 41.0 45.3 49.1 56.5 Wholesale to retail 123.4 136.1 134.5 138.0 139.1 142.3 Farmers share (%) 30.0 25.0 24.0 21.0 18.0 12.0 Poultry and eggs Wholesale to retail Broilers 95.6 79.1 82.0 83.2 95.1 98.4 Retail to consumer Turkey 20.0 29.6 29.0 29.3 21.3 10.3 Eggs 10.5 25.6 26.0 24.0 24.1 22.3 U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS Oct-97 Nov-97 Dec-97 Jan-98 Feb-98 Mar-98 Apr-98 Beef & Veal Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 44285 52782 34175 62724 36249 62706 69689 New Zealand 22765 21041 35241 53449 69972 66652 57856 Canada 65991 67072 66223 74167 64503 62376 56803 Brazil 7042 6518 8845 11652 6648 10504 10262 Argentina 11253 12501 21031 12767 8606 8451 7337 Central America 7480 6994 7863 3886 8037 7456 3022 Other 3184 4692 8362 4407 3878 4978 3946 Total 161999 171600 181739 223052 197893 223124 208914 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 90304 99523 79340 84595 87664 97216 99949 Canada 22569 23627 23095 19649 19991 21390 22138 Mexico 34068 28555 35481 25837 30535 30814 28941 Korea, Rep. 25716 26133 11628 6561 6211 15617 8231 Caribbean 1476 1710 712 1881 1596 1926 1730 Other 19564 22071 22347 15320 13835 19811 15029 Total 193697 201619 172604 153843 159832 186774 176017 Cattle Imports Head Mexico 72261 145208 87689 58093 62163 81158 77627 Canada 141029 101258 80269 93987 114883 127660 128398 Over 700 lbs 119850 83585 71504 84809 102578 115540 110465 440-700 lbs. 11433 9001 3994 4949 7355 4961 8743 Total 213401 246466 167958 152080 177046 208892 206025 Cattle Exports Mexico 26853 17522 19985 18132 16294 15793 13244 Canada 3290 3698 6707 4678 5913 7544 6606 Total 31053 21745 27081 23425 22525 23874 21225 Lamb Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Australia 2484 2468 3566 2975 2856 4733 3172 New Zealand 2017 1339 2106 2494 2918 4539 3284 Total 4609 4010 5710 5513 5839 9319 6466 Mutton Imports Total 1528 1207 2142 3874 2987 4676 4347 Lamb and mutton exports Total 240 478 580 634 324 571 579 Pork Imports Canada 41479 37544 38163 35080 32089 35345 36381 Denmark 8814 9606 10144 8346 12829 10735 9322 Poland 1665 1243 2192 1217 1651 2027 802 Hungary 873 265 783 536 422 687 661 Netherlands 930 504 1021 948 1216 826 870 Other 4386 3395 4614 3372 3352 3671 3413 Total 58146 52557 56917 49500 51558 53290 51449 Pork Exports Japan 41170 44315 35554 36382 33896 39214 57660 Canada 11066 13017 11450 12790 12191 11505 9575 Mexico 9320 7848 10403 10532 9070 11265 11243 Caribbean 1323 1284 1383 1029 987 827 1244 Other 47527 34809 33323 26526 37228 52511 44379 Total 110406 101272 92113 87258 93371 115321 124100 Hog Imports Carcass wt.,thousand lb. Canada 287815 282203 361135 381649 321504 352390 302501 Under 110 lb 93076 74177 79412 87548 91993 122449 121504 Total 287903 282203 361197 381743 321510 352398 302597 Hog Exports Total 9968 4451 4322 15487 8423 6585 9767 Broiler Exports RTC, thousand lb. Japan 21865 21336 12591 23089 18736 16461 19765 Mexico 23932 18952 24134 19774 22760 26027 21548 Hong Kong 82389 70991 77908 25916 56673 82046 91456 Singapore 3478 2189 2886 1996 1265 1665 1896 Canada 10355 11375 8106 10517 8963 10716 10707 Russia 194816 180994 176248 234851 164709 132831 142743 Total 449590 402079 401604 440624 407423 392963 397049 Turkey Exports Mexico 17697 20706 24477 11710 15263 15309 13645 S. Korea 3325 1255 100 168 145 47 291 Russia 8981 4408 6975 3616 6186 9874 8144 Hong Kong 9683 9143 12173 3343 2547 2167 4159 Total 53766 48899 57134 29717 31181 34558 31296 Shell Thousand dz. Egg Exports 11495 8896 8657 6370 7139 9189 9328 U.S. LIVESTOCK & MEAT IMPORTS & EXPORTS May-98 Jun-98 Jul-98 Aug-98 Sep-98 Oct-98 Beef & Veal Imports Australia 42643 93003 88913 88208 88072 75669 New Zealand 63443 81090 68645 35610 23544 18198 Canada 67461 72077 66568 70564 68603 75161 Brazil 10230 11589 11732 14685 11771 12411 Argentina 6612 9670 8037 7798 9236 11836 Central America 2668 2640 2497 3983 3818 3114 Other 4906 5692 5667 3976 3563 5015 Total 197962 275762 252058 224824 208606 201404 Beef & Veal Exports Japan 95319 98857 110607 96221 87079 99838 Canada 21095 23098 20080 21349 21827 20789 Mexico 31582 33203 38820 40662 38086 35984 Korea, Rep. 11237 6607 6151 11447 15937 22776 Caribbean 1550 1360 2365 1103 1444 1974 Other 23641 12990 23010 14531 11942 12693 Total 184424 176114 201034 185312 176315 194054 Cattle Imports Mexico 59814 22877 9933 3655 10359 70112 Canada 114013 100818 84515 129789 135189 127443 Over 700 lbs 96810 92910 77102 120482 125023 117830 440-700 lbs. 9825 1150 577 1398 2295 3063 Total 173827 123695 94459 133444 145548 197555 Cattle Exports Mexico 11248 13424 13445 15250 12671 11700 Canada 8831 6882 4450 3326 3206 12752 Total 21601 20633 18150 18828 16167 25918 Lamb Imports Australia 2556 2285 3745 1518 3439 3963 New Zealand 2705 3367 2478 429 1847 2818 Total 5349 5682 6223 1953 5381 6835 Mutton Imports Total 3088 3354 1978 1256 1527 1333 Lamb and mutton exports Total 327 258 399 334 221 612 Pork Imports Canada 32382 38526 39807 43683 44041 51410 Denmark 6677 11889 13357 12062 11986 12529 Poland 1673 1580 1587 1442 1728 2602 Hungary 820 1014 1152 1405 916 1010 Netherlands 769 476 776 405 422 1000 Other 3589 2508 2504 2097 3121 3730 Total 45910 55993 59183 61093 62213 72281 Pork Exports Japan 43568 40552 40683 41144 37560 47325 Canada 13869 11977 9036 8217 10791 7213 Mexico 10962 12426 12299 10937 10677 13381 Caribbean 1635 1421 2047 2503 2567 2350 Other 45719 42247 37016 35351 27402 32032 Total 115753 108623 101081 98152 88998 102300 Hog Imports Canada 333389 361780 373552 342422 339352 345122 Under 110 lb 99067 124344 127141 134383 138287 139242 Total 333389 361792 373570 342422 339611 345122 Hog Exports Total 9129 11388 14052 18697 16736 24560 Broiler Exports Japan 18542 19583 14945 14857 23208 24816 Mexico 24148 20705 22610 23720 20603 22149 Hong Kong 84836 82472 88718 86709 84827 80808 Singapore 792 975 1360 1009 1581 1578 Canada 10488 9987 10457 11955 11888 11433 Russia 186887 180613 122502 147152 2150 48397 Total 474640 470756 424943 415025 243299 303519 Turkey Exports Mexico 19389 25884 19881 20089 25453 30342 S. Korea 132 48 380 503 432 942 Russia 13095 9688 8108 5501 553 131 Hong Kong 2460 2862 2611 3964 4378 2039 Total 41637 46284 37835 35266 36471 39680 Shell Egg Exports 7757 8247 8412 7927 9715 11639 U.S. dairy situation at a glance 1995 1996 1997 Milk production: Production (Mil. lb., 20 States) 131,780 131,343 133,861 Milk cow (Thou., 20 States) 7,862 7,818 7,759 Milk per cow (Lb., 20 States) 16,762 16,847 17,254 Production (Mil. lb., U.S. est.) 155,424 154,259 156,603 Milk prices (Dol/cwt): All milk 12.74 14.88 13.34 Milk eligible for fluid use 12.78 14.95 13.38 Manufacturing grade milk 11.78 13.38 12.18 Basic Formula Price (3.5% fat) 11.83 13.39 12.05 Slaughter Cow, WI (Dol/cwt): 38.11 33.00 36.93 Wholesale prices (Cts/lb): Butter, Central States 1/ 81.9 108.2 116.2 American cheese, WI assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 132.8 149.1 132.4 Barrels 127.3 141.7 125.2 Nonfat dry milk, Central States 108.6 122.2 110.0 Retail prices: Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) 152.4 156.9 160.5 All food (1982-1984=100) 148.4 153.3 157.3 Dairy products (1982-1984=100) 132.8 142.1 145.5 Fluid milk (Dec 1997=100) NA NA NA Other dairy products (Dec 1997=100) NA NA NA Dairy product output (Mil. lb): Butter 1,264.5 1,174.5 1,151.3 American cheese 3,131.4 3,280.8 3,285.2 Other-than-American cheese 3,785.5 3,936.7 4,043.8 Frozen products (Mil. gal) 2/ 1,229.6 1,240.9 1,281.4 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 95,633 95,013 96,218 Nonfat dry milk 1,233.0 1,061.8 1,217.6 Beginning stocks (Mil. lb): Commercial butter 12.2 15.8 13.4 Commercial American cheese 309.5 306.6 379.6 Other cheese 126.8 105.3 107.3 Manufacturers' nonfat dry milk 103.5 70.6 71.1 All commercial (milkfat basis 3/) 4,263 4,099 4,704 All commercial (skim solids basis 3/) 5,712 5,037 5,753 All Government (milkfat basis 3/) 1,497 69 10 All Government (skim solids basis 3/) 341 172 7 Commercial disappearance (Mil. lb): Butter 1,186 1,180 1,109 American cheese 3,149 3,230 3,269 Other-than-American cheese 4,126 4,243 4,366 Nonfat dry milk 923 1,009 895 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 154,835 154,989 156,595 USDA net removals (Mil. lb): Butter 78.5 0.1 38.4 Cheese 6.1 4.6 11.3 Nonfat dry milk 343.8 57.2 298.0 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 2,106 87 1,090 All products (skim solids basis 3/) 4,374 747 3,681 Imports (Mil. lb, milkfat basis 3/) 2,936 2,911 2,698 International market prices (Dol/mt): Butter 2,251 1,837 1,861 Nonfat dry milk 2,143 1,979 1,738 1/ Grade AA Chicago before June 1998. 2/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, and sherbert. 3/ Milk equivalent. NA = Not Available. U.S. dairy situation at a glance Aug-97 Sep-97 Oct-97 Nov-97 Milk production: Production (Mil. lb., 20 States) 11,213 10,671 10,977 10,591 Milk cow (Thou., 20 States) 7,757 7,752 7,750 7,737 Milk per cow (Lb., 20 States) 1,446 1,377 1,416 1,369 Production (Mil. lb., U.S. est.) 13,058 12,423 12,818 12,363 Milk prices (Dol/cwt): All milk 12.70 13.10 14.10 14.70 Milk eligible for fluid use 12.80 13.10 14.10 14.70 Manufacturing grade milk 11.90 12.70 13.20 13.60 Basic Formula Price (3.5% fat) 12.07 12.79 12.83 12.96 Slaughter Cow, WI (Dol/cwt): 37.00 36.25 35.40 33.06 Wholesale prices (Cts/lb): Butter, Central States 1/ 110.5 109.3 142.8 159.3 American cheese, WI assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 137.6 141.4 142.4 143.8 Barrels 129.4 133.6 136.3 134.9 Nonfat dry milk, Central States 107.2 107.1 106.9 107.1 Retail prices: Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) 160.8 161.2 161.6 161.5 All food (1982-1984=100) 157.6 157.9 158.2 158.5 Dairy products (1982-1984=100) 143.4 143.5 145.7 147.0 Fluid milk (Dec 1997=100) NA NA NA NA Other dairy products (Dec 1997=100) NA NA NA NA Dairy product output (Mil. lb): Butter 68.8 79.3 83.3 89.1 American cheese 260.0 261.2 260.0 248.5 Other-than-American cheese 336.5 343.0 355.5 346.0 Frozen products (Mil. gal) 2/ 119.2 103.3 99.7 80.5 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 7,669 7,690 7,624 7,214 Nonfat dry milk 90.2 77.4 72.6 75.2 Beginning stocks (Mil. lb): Commercial butter 84.9 68.9 43.4 26.2 Commercial American cheese 469.0 459.2 433.8 414.7 Other cheese 135.9 122.8 109.6 90.2 Manufacturers' nonfat dry milk 158.7 154.6 133.9 114.8 All commercial (milkfat basis 3/) 7,354 6,813 5,939 5,205 All commercial (skim solids basis 3/) 7,984 7,703 7,097 6,456 All Government (milkfat basis 3/) 31 32 19 16 All Government (skim solids basis 3/) 55 84 99 171 Commercial disappearance (Mil. lb): Butter 81.3 101.0 97.0 95.2 American cheese 272.1 287.9 279.6 259.8 Other-than-American cheese 373.5 381.4 404.5 396.1 Nonfat dry milk 59.8 63.9 66.8 57.3 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 13,604 13,305 13,594 12,886 USDA net removals (Mil. lb): Butter 3.6 3.9 3.5 5.2 Cheese 0.6 0.4 1.2 0.8 Nonfat dry milk 35.1 34.7 24.9 33.3 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 101 103 102 142 All products (skim solids basis 3/) 425 417 312 412 Imports (Mil. lb, milkfat basis 3/) 228 228 266 275 International market prices (Dol/mt): Butter 1,844 2,008 2,165 2,194 Nonfat dry milk 1,620 1,694 1,729 1,731 1/ Grade AA Chicago before June 1998. 2/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, and sherbert. 3/ Milk equivalent. NA = Not Available. U.S. dairy situation at a glance Dec-97 Jan-98 Feb-98 Mar-98 Milk production: Production (Mil. lb., 20 States) 11,118 11,316 10,434 11,722 Milk cow (Thou., 20 States) 7,732 7,730 7,726 7,725 Milk per cow (Lb., 20 States) 1,438 1,464 1,351 1,517 Production (Mil. lb., U.S. est.) 12,973 13,261 12,222 13,726 Milk prices (Dol/cwt): All milk 14.80 14.70 14.70 14.40 Milk eligible for fluid use 14.80 14.70 14.80 14.50 Manufacturing grade milk 13.60 13.50 13.50 12.90 Basic Formula Price (3.5% fat) 13.29 13.25 13.32 12.81 Slaughter Cow, WI (Dol/cwt): 34.75 36.31 37.44 37.25 Wholesale prices (Cts/lb): Butter, Central States 1/ 133.4 117.8 139.8 134.1 American cheese, WI assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 146.1 144.5 144.7 138.8 Barrels 129.2 134.7 143.6 135.3 Nonfat dry milk, Central States 107.4 105.9 105.2 104.7 Retail prices: Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) 161.3 161.6 161.9 162.2 All food (1982-1984=100) 158.7 159.9 159.4 159.7 Dairy products (1982-1984=100) 147.8 148.3 147.7 148.4 Fluid milk (Dec 1997=100) NA 99.8 100.2 100.7 Other dairy products (Dec 1997=100) NA 100.9 99.4 100.1 Dairy product output (Mil. lb): Butter 106.0 113.5 102.7 100.8 American cheese 278.6 283.2 261.1 285.2 Other-than-American cheese 349.3 332.5 313.0 360.0 Frozen products (Mil. gal) 2/ 80.6 83.3 91.7 109.4 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 7,801 8,009 7,600 8,297 Nonfat dry milk 102.0 103.7 97.0 107.3 Beginning stocks (Mil. lb): Commercial butter 15.0 20.5 34.0 44.1 Commercial American cheese 405.3 0.0 411.7 410.5 Other cheese 68.9 70.0 81.7 98.8 Manufacturers' nonfat dry milk 100.6 103.3 104.1 105.3 All commercial (milkfat basis 3/) 4,697 4,889 5,306 5,640 All commercial (skim solids basis 3/) 5,968 6,080 6,245 6,415 All Government (milkfat basis 3/) 19 18 15 16 All Government (skim solids basis 3/) 257 258 286 310 Commercial disappearance (Mil. lb): Butter 95.4 98.3 92.1 89.7 American cheese 276.0 282.0 263.1 275.8 Other-than-American cheese 384.9 337.0 312.5 383.9 Nonfat dry milk 70.4 65.4 64.1 96.7 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 12,855 12,818 11,937 13,532 USDA net removals (Mil. lb): Butter 5.4 3.3 1.5 0.7 Cheese 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.6 Nonfat dry milk 31.5 37.5 31.7 24.7 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 147 108 62 40 All products (skim solids basis 3/) 392 468 393 309 Imports (Mil. lb, milkfat basis 3/) 342 196 215 310 International market prices (Dol/mt): Butter 2,187 2,091 1,888 1,844 Nonfat dry milk 1,649 1,560 1,510 1,480 1/ Grade AA Chicago before June 1998. 2/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, and sherbert. 3/ Milk equivalent. NA = Not Available. U.S. dairy situation at a glance Apr-98 May-98 Jun-98 Jul-98 Milk production: Production (Mil. lb., 20 States) 11,591 12,067 11,446 11,345 Milk cow (Thou., 20 States) 7,735 7,750 7,753 7,750 Milk per cow (Lb., 20 States) 1,499 1,557 1,476 1,464 Production (Mil. lb., U.S. est.) 13,520 14,070 13,341 13,223 Milk prices (Dol/cwt): All milk 14.00 13.20 14.00 14.10 Milk eligible for fluid use 14.00 13.30 14.00 14.10 Manufacturing grade milk 12.10 11.30 13.00 14.00 Basic Formula Price (3.5% fat) 12.01 10.88 13.10 14.77 Slaughter Cow, WI (Dol/cwt): 37.70 38.38 37.44 37.25 Wholesale prices (Cts/lb): Butter, Central States 1/ 136.4 153.2 186.7 203.1 American cheese, WI assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 129.7 123.0 151.3 162.6 Barrels 125.1 120.8 146.3 153.4 Nonfat dry milk, Central States 104.3 103.5 102.9 103.0 Retail prices: Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) 162.5 162.8 163.0 163.2 All food (1982-1984=100) 159.8 160.3 160.1 160.5 Dairy products (1982-1984=100) 148.5 148.1 148.1 148.2 Fluid milk (Dec 1997=100) 100.3 100.3 99.3 98.4 Other dairy products (Dec 1997=100) 99.9 99.9 101.1 101.3 Dairy product output (Mil. lb): Butter 103.0 92.9 72.6 67.1 American cheese 289.7 293.1 287.8 277.3 Other-than-American cheese 351.6 360.0 353.3 335.3 Frozen products (Mil. gal) 2/ 115.4 118.9 132.2 135.0 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 8,521 8,579 8,260 7,973 Nonfat dry milk 120.4 121.3 104.2 90.2 Beginning stocks (Mil. lb): Commercial butter 55.7 67.0 72.4 60.3 Commercial American cheese 421.0 441.4 442.6 449.6 Other cheese 98.2 103.1 108.8 133.6 Manufacturers' nonfat dry milk 92.7 113.1 132.0 129.3 All commercial (milkfat basis 3/) 5,990 6,460 6,663 6,637 All commercial (skim solids basis 3/) 6,375 6,859 7,178 7,448 All Government (milkfat basis 3/) 20 28 26 27 All Government (skim solids basis 3/) 427 568 646 808 Commercial disappearance (Mil. lb): Butter 92.4 88 89.2 86.8 American cheese 272.3 295.1 282.9 269.0 Other-than-American cheese 368.1 377.9 352.2 363.0 Nonfat dry milk 73.1 65.4 80.1 69.8 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 13,192 14,026 13,612 13,709 USDA net removals (Mil. lb): Butter 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 Cheese 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 Nonfat dry milk 28.1 37.9 29.9 38.6 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 26 24 13 15 All products (skim solids basis 3/) 339 450 355 457 Imports (Mil. lb, milkfat basis 3/) 279 298 369 533 International market prices (Dol/mt): Butter 1,835 1,838 1,933 1,988 Nonfat dry milk 1,491 1,493 1,523 1,437 1/ Grade AA Chicago before June 1998. 2/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, and sherbert. 3/ Milk equivalent. NA = Not Available. U.S. dairy situation at a glance Aug-98 Sep-98 Oct-98 Dec-98 Milk production: Production (Mil. lb., 20 States) 11,160 10,706 11,164 10,909 Milk cow (Thou., 20 States) 7,753 7,749 7,746 7,746 Milk per cow (Lb., 20 States) 1,439 1,382 1,441 1,408 Production (Mil. lb., U.S. est.) 13,002 12,469 12,976 12,674 Milk prices (Dol/cwt): All milk 15.40 16.60 17.60 17.90 Milk eligible for fluid use 15.50 16.70 17.60 17.90 Manufacturing grade milk 14.60 15.40 16.70 17.10 Basic Formula Price (3.5% fat) 14.99 15.10 16.04 16.84 Slaughter Cow, WI (Dol/cwt): 35.69 34.20 31.44 31.34 Wholesale prices (Cts/lb): Butter, Central States 1/ 216.6 270.8 242.3 187.9 American cheese, WI assembly pt. 40-pound blocks 166.9 171.0 183.5 188.7 Barrels 149.9 164.6 178.5 183.5 Nonfat dry milk, Central States 104.6 110.1 111.8 112.5 Retail prices: Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=100) 163.4 163.6 164.0 164.0 All food (1982-1984=100) 161.0 161.1 162.0 162.1 Dairy products (1982-1984=100) 150.5 152.9 155.0 155.9 Fluid milk (Dec 1997=100) 100.7 102.8 103.6 103.5 Other dairy products (Dec 1997=100) 101.9 103.6 103.9 103.2 Dairy product output (Mil. lb): Butter 61.5 67.2 81.2 NA American cheese 261.1 246.1 263.7 NA Other-than-American cheese 334.9 335.5 366.5 NA Frozen products (Mil. gal) 2/ 122.0 112.1 99.0 NA All products (milkfat basis 3/) 7,548 7,326 7,661 NA Nonfat dry milk 72.5 63.0 70.3 NA Beginning stocks (Mil. lb): Commercial butter 50.7 40.9 33.9 31.2 Commercial American cheese 459.8 441.4 417.3 394.5 Other cheese 134.4 135.3 135.5 128.0 Manufacturers' nonfat dry milk 112.3 78.1 64.4 47.2 All commercial (milkfat basis 3/) 6,554 6,173 5,765 5,460 All commercial (skim solids basis 3/) 7,387 6,817 6,387 5,912 All Government (milkfat basis 3/) 38 40 40 34 All Government (skim solids basis 3/) 1,072 1,264 1,322 1,278 Commercial disappearance (Mil. lb): Butter 84.6 80.6 93.8 NA American cheese 279.9 271.0 286.4 NA Other-than-American cheese 361.0 362.2 410.8 NA Nonfat dry milk 79.0 54.3 73.0 NA All products (milkfat basis 3/) 13,815 13,173 13,713 NA USDA net removals (Mil. lb): Butter 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cheese 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 Nonfat dry milk 28.2 19.9 15.8 8.4 All products (milkfat basis 3/) 14 15 14 11 All products (skim solids basis 3/) 337 243 195 108 Imports (Mil. lb, milkfat basis 3/) 559 422 549 NA International market prices (Dol/mt): Butter 1,991 2,020 1,940 1,775 Nonfat dry milk 1,424 1,408 1,313 1,320 1/ Grade AA Chicago before June 1998. 2/ Hard ice cream, ice milk, and sherbert. ECONOMIC INDICATOR FORECASTS 1/ 1997 1998 III IV Annual I II GDP, chain wtd 7,222 7,290 7,189 7,356 7,491 (bil. 1992 dollars) CPI-U, annual rate (pct.) 2.0 2.5 1.9 0.5 2.0 Unemployment (pct.) 4.9 4.7 5.0 4.7 4.4 Interest (pct.) 3-month Treasury bill 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.0 10-year Treasury bond 6.2 5.9 6.4 6.8 5.6 yield 1/ Source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank, August 1998 1998 1999 III IV Annual I II GDP, chain wtd 7,560 7,587 7,605 7,637 7,669 (bil. 1992 dollars) CPI-U, annual rate (pct.) 2.0 1.9 1.6 2.2 2.3 Unemployment (pct.) 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.7 Interest (pct.) 3-month Treasury bill 5.0 4.3 4.8 4.2 4.1 10-year Treasury bond 5.5 4.7 5.3 4.7 4.8 yield 1999 III IV Annual GDP, chain wtd 7,708 7,748 7,688 (bil. 1992 dollars) CPI-U, annual rate (pct.) 2.4 2.4 2.3 Unemployment (pct.) 4.8 4.9 4.8 Interest (pct.) 3-month Treasury bill 4.2 4.2 4.2 10-year Treasury bond 4.9 5.1 4.9 yield DAIRY FORECASTS 1997 1998 III IV Annual I II Milk cows (thous,) 9,251 9,206 9,258 9,186 9,205 Milk per cow (pounds) 4,195 4,144 16,915 4,268 4,447 Milk production(bil.pounds) 38.8 38.2 156.6 39.2 40.9 Commercial use (bil. pounds) milkfat basis 40.4 39.3 156.6 38.3 40.8 skim solids basis 39.1 38.7 154.3 38.0 39.3 Net removals (bil. pounds) milkfat basis 0.3 0.4 1.1 0.2 0.1 skim solids basis 1.1 1.1 3.7 1.2 1.1 Prices (dol./cwt) All milk 12.63 14.53 13.34 14.60 13.73 Basic Formula Price 11.91 13.03 12.05 13.13 12.00 1998 1999 III IV Annual I II Milk cows (thous,) 9,201 9,170 9,190 9,160 9,140 Milk per cow (pounds) 4,205 4,200 19,120 4,340 4,540 Milk production(bil.pounds) 38.7 38.5 157.3 39.8 41.5 Commercial use (bil. pounds) milkfat basis 40.7 40.3 160.1 39.2 40.2 skim solids basis 39.3 39.2 155.9 39.0 39.7 Net removals (bil. pounds) milkfat basis 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 skim solids basis 1.0 0.8 4.1 0.7 0.9 Prices (dol./cwt) All milk 15.37 17.75 15.35 16.85 13.20 -17.95 -15.45 -17.35 -14.00 Basic Formula Price 14.95 16.55 14.15 14.30 11.45 -16.75 -14.25 -14.80 -12.25 1999 III IV Annual Milk cows (thous,) 9,125 9,115 9,135 Milk per cow (pounds) 4,330 4,320 17,530 Milk production(bil.pounds) 39.5 39.4 160.1 Commercial use (bil. pounds) milkfat basis 41.7 40.5 161.6 skim solids basis 40.3 40.0 159.0 Net removals (bil. pounds) milkfat basis 0.0 0.5 0.7 skim solids basis 1.1 0.8 3.6 Prices (dol./cwt) All milk 12.60 14.10 14.20 -13.60 -15.10 -15.00 Basic Formula Price 11.55 12.50 12.45 -12.55 -13.50 -13.25 RED MEAT AND POULTRY FORECASTS 1997 1998 III IV Annual I II Production, million lb. Beef 6,603 6,258 25,384 6,215 6,463 Pork 4,196 4,766 17,244 4,687 4,430 Broilers 6,864 6,831 27,271 6,845 6,991 Turkeys 1,411 1,428 5,478 1,290 1,321 Total Red Meat & Poultry 19,337 19,550 76,467 19,296 19,468 Table eggs, mil doz. 1,354 1,412 5,456 1,382 1,374 Per capita consumption, Retail lb. Beef 17.1 16.3 66.9 16.7 17.2 Pork 12.0 13.4 48.7 12.7 12.3 Broilers 18.6 17.7 72.7 17.7 18.3 Turkeys 4.2 6.0 17.6 3.9 3.9 Total Red Meat & Poultry 52.5 53.9 208.6 51.7 52.3 Eggs, number 59.5 61.8 239.4 60.1 60.1 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 65.65 66.61 66.32 61.73 64.16 Feeder steers, Ok City, $/cwt. 80.44 78.98 76.19 75.49 74.00 Bng Ut Cows, S. Falls, $/cwt. 35.20 32.80 34.27 38.28 39.15 Barrows & gilts, Ia/Mn., $/cwt. 54.45 43.53 51.36 34.74 39.42 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 62.0 54.0 58.8 56.4 61.0 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 68.2 66.5 64.9 55.1 59.1 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 79.7 88.2 81.2 79.0 66.5 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 600 568 2,136 500 537 Beef & veal imports 576 515 2,343 644 682 Pork exports 272 304 1,044 296 348 Pork imports 157 168 633 154 153 Broiler exports 1,223 1,253 4,664 1,241 1,342 Turkey exports 162 160 598 100 121 1998 1999 III IV Annual I II Production, million lb. Beef 6,638 6,370 25,686 6,000 6,000 Pork 4,625 5,200 18,942 4,800 4,700 Broilers 6,937 7,025 27,798 7,125 7,400 Turkeys 1,302 1,325 5,238 1,175 1,325 Total Red Meat & Poultry 19,750 20,165 78,679 19,354 19,683 Table eggs, mil doz. 1,396 1,440 5,592 1,400 1,400 Per capita consumption, Retail lb. Beef 17.5 16.7 68.2 15.9 15.9 Pork 13.1 14.5 52.7 13.1 12.7 Broilers 18.6 19.6 74.2 19.5 20.0 Turkeys 4.2 6.0 18.0 3.4 3.9 Total Red Meat & Poultry 54.0 57.3 215.4 52.5 53.1 Eggs, number 60.9 62.5 243.6 60.3 60.4 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 58.97 62-63 61.84 67-71 72-78 Feeder steers, Ok City, $/cwt. 67.89 70-71 72.10 76-80 82-88 Bng Ut Cows, S. Falls, $/cwt. 35.21 32-33 36.16 38-42 44-50 Barrows & gilts, Ia/Mn., $/cwt. 33.30 21-22 32.24 30-32 33-35 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 70.4 63-64 62.80 57-59 57-61 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 63.4 60-71 61.90 55-57 58-62 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 76.0 82-83 76.00 73-77 62-68 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 563 558 2,158 595 610 Beef & veal imports 685 600 2,611 700 760 Pork exports 288 300 1,232 370 365 Pork imports 183 190 680 170 165 Broiler exports 1,083 800 4,466 950 1,050 Turkey exports 112 95 428 100 100 1999 III IV Annual Production, million lb. Beef 6,200 5,875 24,075 Pork 4,800 5,125 19,425 Broilers 7,400 7,300 29,225 Turkeys 1,375 1,375 5,250 Total Red Meat & Poultry 20,021 19,925 78,983 Table eggs, mil doz. 1,425 1,475 5,700 Per capita consumption, Retail lb. Beef 16.3 15.2 63.3 Pork 13.5 14.1 53.4 Broilers 19.7 19.2 78.4 Turkeys 4.3 6.0 17.5 Total Red Meat & Poultry 54.3 55.1 215.0 Eggs, number 61.3 63.5 245.5 Market Prices Choice steers, Neb., $/cwt. 69-75 69-75 79-75 Feeder steers, Ok City, $/cwt. 81-87 82-88 80-86 Bng Ut Cows, S. Falls, $/cwt. 45-49 44-48 44-46 Barrows & gilts, Ia/Mn., $/cwt. 36-38 29-31 32-34 Broilers, 12 City, cents/lb. 58-62 54-58 56-60 Turkeys, Eastern, cents/lb. 61-67 67-73 60-65 Eggs, New York, cents/doz. 67-73 77-83 70-75 U.S. Trade, million lb. Beef & veal exports 565 570 2,340 Beef & veal imports 725 605 2,790 Pork exports 310 310 1,355 Pork imports 180 185 700 Broiler exports 1,150 1,175 4,325 Turkey exports 110 120 430 END_OF_FILE