OIL CROPS YEARBOOK--SUMMARY July 27, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- This SUMMARY is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. The complete text of the OIL CROPS YEARBOOK is available 2-3 working days following release of this summary. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. Farmers Plant More Oilseed Acres in 1995 U.S. farmers planted 63.1 million acres of soybeans in 1995, up 1.2 million from 1994. Record acres were planted in most midwestern States. Acreage declines were most visible in the South as cotton plantings boomed. Despite large carryin stocks, 1995/96 soybean plantings did not drop as would be expected. A wet spring delayed grain planting in the upper Midwest beyond the recommended schedule, making soybeans the best alternative. Farmers also apparently responded to higher fertilizer costs last spring by substituting soybeans for higher-input corn acreage. With a slightly-below-trend yield of 36.0 bushels per acre and harvested area of 62.2 million acres, 1995 soybean production is projected to total 2.24 billion bushels. Soybean crush for 1995/96 is projected to drop slightly, to 1,385 million bushels. U.S. soybean exports are also expected to slip from 820 million bushels to 800 million based on lower available supplies and a moderate decline in crush margins in the European Union. Total U.S. demand will exceed production so that soybean ending stocks will decline from 385 million to 325 million bushels. The reduction in stocks will raise the 1995/96 expected average price range to $5.50-$6.50 per bushel, compared with the $5.45 preliminary estimate for 1994/95. Despite a large decline in world soybean production of 10.3 million metric tons, small increases in cottonseed, rapeseed, sunflowerseed, and palm kernel for 1995/96 and large carryin stocks should contribute to record global supplies of 281.3 million metric tons. World oilseed trade in 1995/96 is projected down 1 percent to 43.6 million metric tons, based on lower soybean and peanut exports. Ample soybean meal supplies and still favorably priced protein meal will result in slightly higher global protein meal consumption and trade. Global supplies of edible oils are expected to increase about 3 percent to 75.3 million metric tons on the strength of a rise in foreign production. World production of most edible oils is expected to increase, except for peanut, fish, and olive oil. World vegetable and marine oil trade is expected virtually unchanged from 1994/95's 25.8 million metric tons, as expansion in rapeseed and palm oil trade offset declines in the other oils. U.S. cottonseed production in 1994/95 was 7.604 million short tons, the largest crop since 1937/38's 7.844 million, and 20 percent above last season. With beginning stocks of 432,000 short tons, the large cottonseed crop pushed total supply to a record 8.036 million tons. All major use categories rose in the 1994/95 season. Cottonseed exports rose 43 percent from last season to 225,000 tons, crush rose 11 percent to 3.85 million, and "other use," primarily whole seed feeding, rose 24 percent to 3.29 million. U.S. cottonseed prices received by farmers averaged $101 per ton for the 1994/95 season, down from the $113 average last season. U.S. peanut production in 1994/95 totaled 4.247 billion pounds, up 25 percent from last season. Harvested area was 1.619 million acres on 1.641 million planted. The 1994 crop yielded a national average 2,624 pounds (in-shell, basis) per harvested acre, the highest since the 1985 season and 616 pounds per acre above last season's drought-reduced yield. Food use of peanuts in the 1994/95 season is expected to decline for the third consecutive season to 2.05 billion pounds, more than a quarter-billion pounds below 1989/90's record food use. The large supply of peanuts in 1994/95 has boosted both crush and exports, estimated to total 1.05 billion and 900 million pounds, respectively, up 57 and 62 percent from last season. The average price received by farmers for peanuts in 1994/95 fell to 29.0 cents per pound from 30.4 cents last season. U.S. sunflowerseed production in 1995/96 is expected to reach 4.4 billion pounds, down 400 million pounds from 1994/95 but still the fourth highest in history. According to USDA's June Acreage report, farmers have planted fewer non-oil type varieties this year, down to 513,000 acres, while the acres planted to oil type varieties are expected to increase by 2 percent to 3.1 million acres. Near record breaking crops for 2 consecutive years are expected to put downward pressure on the prices of sunflowerseed in 1995/96, despite the slight increase in total demand. P rinted copies of the Oil Crops Yearbook Situation and Outlook report will be available in about 2 weeks. For more information, contact Scott Sanford (202) 219-0835. Text of the report also will be available electronically. For details, call (202) 720-9045 END-END-END