OIL CROPS OUTLOOK July 15, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL CROPS OUTLOOK is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. OCS--0796. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- WET WEATHER EXPANDS SOYBEAN ACREAGE U.S. farmers intended to plant 63.9 million acres of soybeans this spring, up 2 percent from 1995. However, due to saturated soils in several States, many farmers were unable to finish planting corn after the acreage survey was taken in early June and were compelled to switch to soybeans. Soybean farmers in Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois had only planted 28, 31, and 36 percent, respectively, by the time of the interview. Drying soils in the last half of June allowed producers to complete planting their remaining fields to soybeans. In late July, USDA will resurvey producers in 9 major producing States to determine final planting, which is now virtually complete. Any acreage alterations will be reported with the first objective soybean yield estimates in the August 12 Crop Production report. Even without full knowledge of the extent of the shift to soybeans, farmers in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Iowa, South Dakota, Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin had all intended to plant record soybean acreage. Reflecting the weather-related delays, Ohio acreage went up 350,000 acres, the largest year-to-year increase of any State. Southern soybean area is also higher than last year because of lower expected cotton returns and nearly 1 million more acres double cropped with wheat. Missouri farmers went against the grain by planting 400,000 fewer soybean acres this year, mostly so they could boost their corn and sorghum acreage. Missouri's soybean acreage this year would match 1990's 4.2 million acres, which had been the State's lowest since 1972. The Acreage report contains some interesting information on total crop acreage. Acreage planted to principal crops totals 334 million acres in 1996, up 10 million from 1994 and from March intentions. This year's area planted would be the largest since 1986, which was prior to major enrollment in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). A substantial hike in commodity prices in May has spurred farmers to plant on as much land as possible. Acreage idling programs were eliminated in the 1996 FAIR Act. Early withdrawal of land from the CRP for current production has been relatively small, however, with preliminary estimates of 500,000 acres. Farmers appear to be waiting for USDA to announce more details on rental rates and eligibility criteria for re-enrollment before deciding whether to extend their CRP contracts or withdraw land for crop production. With projected harvested area of 63.1 million acres, forecast 1996 production of soybeans is 2,315 million bushels. Lower carryin stocks cut the projected 1996/97 soybean supply to 2,500 million bushels, only 8 million bushels above this year's level. The overall condition of this year's crop is nearly identical with conditions last year at this time, which was prior to the extreme summer heat and early frosts that ultimately held down final 1995 yields. While extensive planting sent soybean futures prices tumbling in June, history is threatening to repeat itself. The late start followed by a dry spell in the Corn Belt over the last 3 weeks has depleted topsoil moisture. The adverse implications for yields are supporting prices again. Soybeans in the Southeast have also deteriorated from hot, dry weather. Tightness in soybean stocks is not expected to ease any in 1996/97, with the season average soybean farm price ranging $6.25 to $7.95 per bushel. A small increase of 10 million bushels in domestic soybean crush, to 1,370 million bushels, is anticipated next season based on stronger trade in soybean products. U.S. crush and export shipments are likely to be brisk early this fall and winter until higher U.S. prices and expected large increases in soybean acreage and production from South America emerge next spring. U.S. soybean and soybean meal exports are projected at 825 million bushels and 5.7 million short tons in 1996/97, down 1 and up 3 percent from a year earlier. An expected moderate decline in crush margins in the EU, but lower South America soybean supplies during this fall, is expected to leave U.S. exports relatively unchanged. Uncertainty about the levels of 1996/97 soybean imports by China and Brazil could lead to greater U.S. exports. Grain Stocks reported there were 623 million bushels of soybeans on hand as of June 1. Despite being down 21 percent from a year earlier, the volume should be adequate for the remainder of the 1995/96 crop year. The implications of the soybean inventory were less meaningful than the corn stocks data, which were of major indirect significance. The current smaller than expected corn stocks imply that more rationing is needed by September 1. The corn stocks data have sent nearby corn futures prices much higher, which may accelerate the contraction in livestock population. Last month's Hogs and Pigs report indicated that such a contraction had already begun. The December 1 and March 1 inventories were revised down, based on downward revisions in the fall 1995 and winter 1996 pig crops. This means fewer animals were being fed this year than earlier thought. The June 1 inventory was pegged down 4 percent from a year earlier as the March-May pig crop declined. Farrowing intentions for December through May were down 6 percent, compared to down 1 percent in the previous report. Fewer sows farrowed in December-February and the pig crop was revised down. Producers have responded to high feed prices by keeping fewer hogs for breeding (down 3 percent and 5 percent for March 1 and June 1, respectively) than a year ago. The slump in farrowings (and the ultimate reduction in pig crop) should persist into 1997 and could worsen if this fall's corn harvest is inadequate for sustaining hog production. Yet, expectations for only minimal improvement in corn yields for 1996/97 should continue to buoy corn and soybean prices. The 1996/97 projection for soybean meal disappearance was reduced to 27.0 million tons this month, unchanged from 1995/96 forecast disappearance. Offsetting the decline in domestic soybean meal use is a higher 1996/97 U.S. export forecast of 5.65 million short tons. The projected reduction in 1996/97 foreign protein meal production presents the United States with a larger potential export market. The current strong crushing pace in South America will likely limit foreign soybean meal supplies during October-April, thus leading to a greater share for U.S. soybean meal exports. Projected declines for rapeseed and sunflower oil production, coupled with increasing demand in China, Latin America, the Middle East, and North Africa will drive world soybean oil trade upward. Brazil's oil market will remain tight, enabling 1996/97 U.S. soybean oil exports to rise to 1.75 billion pounds, nearly 40 percent above 1995/96's reduced exports. Key uncertainties in U.S. soybean oil exports include South American supplies of soybean and sunflower oil during October 1996-April 1997 and China's demand during the same period. However, strong demand for soybean meal is driving crush higher. The growth in soybean oil production would exceed growth in domestic and foreign demand and push U.S. 1996/97 carryout stocks to 1.88 billion pounds. Global vegetable oil supply-use balances will remain tight, supporting vegetable oil prices close to this year's average level. Soybean oil, along with palm oil, likely will be priced at a larger average discount to canola and sunflowerseed oils, particularly in October 1996-March 1997. SUNFLOWER, MINOR OILSEED ACREAGE SUCCUMBS TO HEAVY GRAINS DEMAND The 2-year revival in sunflower acreage has ended with this year's surge in spring wheat area, which is expected to be the largest in 60 years. U.S. sunflower plantings are indicated at 2.8 million acres, down 20 percent from last year. All of the decline is for oil-type sunflowers, as non-oil type acreage is up 2.5 percent to 581,000 acres. The severest decline happened in Minnesota, which dropped 290,000 acres from 1995. Plantings in South Dakota and North Dakota fell 170,000 and 150,000 acres, respectively. The steady increase in U.S. canola acreage has also been interrupted by stiff competition from the grains sector. Canola plantings for 1996 are 397,000 acres, down 11 percent from 1995. U.S. safflower acreage planted for 1996 is 226,000 acres, down 9 percent from 1995. And the shrinkage of flaxseed area has accelerated, with 1996 plantings of 112,000 acres and well below earlier intentions. This represents a 32-percent drop from 1995 and 84 percent from 1986. Despite a similar plunge in Canadian minor oilseed acreage this year, imports will account for an even larger share of total U.S. supplies in 1996/97. WORLD OILSEED SUPPLIES PROJECTED MARGINALLY DOWN FROM 1995/96 Despite a projected rise in global oilseed output in 1996/97, total oilseed supplies of 278 million metric tons will likely remain below 1995/96 levels. A projected 5-million-ton decline in carryover stocks for 1995/96 more than offsets the expected 1 percent (about 3 million tons) increase in oilseed production. Waning vegetable oil prices in 1995/96, better returns for competing crops (especially wheat), and less than favorable growing conditions in various regions are expected to reduce the production of high oil-content seeds such as rapeseed and sunflowers in 1996/97. Foreign production is projected down 1 percent to 184.1 million tons, while U.S. output is expected to surge 7 percent to 73 million tons. World soybean production is projected to increase 7 percent to 132.1 million metric tons with the United States, Brazil, Argentina, and India accounting for nearly all of the growth. Although South American soybean sowing is still 3-4 months off, current conditions suggest that South American farmers will raise soybean acreage. In Brazil, soybean area is expected to benefit from: robust soybean prices this year; few crop alternatives for the Center-West; and a boost in wheat area that increases the potential for soybean double cropping, primarily in the Southern States. In addition, the government of Brazil has pledged to increase the level of loans to small and medium farmers. Likewise, in Argentina, larger wheat area is expected to encourage a record level of double cropped soybeans, while better returns for crops over livestock are altering rotational crop patterns and pushing area planted to record highs. China's soybean output is expected down again as soybean area continues to be shifted primarily to corn. India's soybean production is projected to continue to grow to a record of 4.5 million tons. Sporadic monsoon rains and a heat wave have contributed to planting delays in India and normal conditions for the remainder of the season will be needed to produce the projected production. Sunflower acreage will decline the most in Argentina, due primarily to a surge in wheat plantings in Buenos Aires Province. In the former Soviet Union (FSU), domestic grain prices are less attractive than international prices, while the opposite has occurred for sunflowers. Despite planted area remaining near record levels, yields are expected to return to more normal levels, leading to a 7- and 2-percent decline in Russian and Ukrainian sunflower output, respectively. On the other hand, EU sunflower production is projected to climb 13 percent to 3.7 million tons. A sharp recovery from a 3- year drought in Spain, combined with more normal yields in Italy, will more than offset a small decline in France's sunflower area and output. Boosted by exports to the European Union, returns to sunflower farmers in Eastern Europe flourished in 1995/96, leading them to raise area to record levels again. Global rapeseed production is projected to drop 13 percent to 30.1 million tons in 1996/97. In Europe, winterkill, better returns for grains, and a smaller set-aside in the EU are expected to reduce the rapeseed crop by more than 1.5 million tons. In Canada, substantial area shifted away from canola because of crop rotational needs and the price ratio between wheat and canola reversed dramatically in favor of wheat. In China, although rapeseed area is expected to remain nearly unchanged, poor growing conditions will likely push production down. New reports are indicating that new flooding may have affected the rapeseed harvest, which will force production further down. Cottonseed output is also projected to drop slightly in response to higher grain prices. Most of the losses are attributed to lower prices and procurement hurdles in China and improved profits for wheat and oilseeds against cotton in India. Cottonseed production is not influenced by the factors in the oilseed supply and demand equation. World 1996/97 peanut production is projected at 26.5 million tons, up 2 percent from the 1995/96 marketing year. Almost all changes are occurring in China and India, the world's largest producers. A 500,000-ton increase in India's peanut production more than offset a 400,000-ton decline in China's output. GROWTH IN WORLD OILSEED CRUSH TO CONTRACT IN 1996/97 Global oilseed crush is forecast to shrink slightly for the first time in 4 years to 213 million metric tons. The projected decline in 1996/97 rapeseed, coupled with smaller drops in sunflowerseed and cottonseed, will likely more than offset increases in soybeans, peanut, palm kernel, and copra. The marginal decline in crush is primarily due to lower supplies of high oil- content seeds (especially rapeseed in Europe) and a significant decline of cottonseed in China. Soybeans, on the other hand, will likely recover from the sluggish 1995/96 crush to reach a record of 111.8 million tons. Hefty demand for soybean crush in South America and both crush and food demand in China suggest a significant rise in total soybean demand. BRISK DEMAND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR PROTEIN MEAL IN 1996/97 Global meal consumption for 1996/97 is projected to reach a record 144.8 million metric tons, with declines in fish, rapeseed, and cottonseed meal. World soybean meal consumption is likely to slow down significantly from the hefty growth attained over the past 3 years. For the seventh consecutive year, world consumption of soybean meal (87.1 million tons) is expected to set a record. Although the EU, which is the single largest market for soybean meal, is expected to marginally reduce its consumption, keen demand in all other regions supports soybean meal consumption growth. The EU's soybean meal offtake has shrunk during the last year as market prices for grains failed relative to soybean meal. In 1996/97, soybean meal consumption will also be slowed by fewer livestock units, particularly hogs and cattle. However, many uncertainties surrounding the EU cloud the outlook for soybean meal consumption. These factors include EU grain policy (export taxes), imports of tapioca and other feedstuff, poultry production, and supplies of other meals. China is the single largest growing market for protein meals, especially soybean meal. China's soybean meal use is projected at a record 6.8 million tons, up 12 and 30 percent from 1995/96 and 1994/95, respectively. Robust increases in poultry production and dwindling fish meal imports are supporting greater feed use. However, growth in Chinese soybean meal consumption may be affected by greater corn supplies as corn production increases and exports are limited. WORLD TRADE PROSPECTS FOR OILSEEDS AND PROTEIN MEALS SLUGGISH IN 1996/97 World oilseed trade in 1996/97 is projected down almost 3 percent to 42.2 million tons, with the fall primarily based on lower rapeseed and sunflowerseed trade. On the other hand, steep demand for protein meals and larger soybean supplies have encouraged soybean production and trade in 1996/97. Rapeseed exports are projected to fall about 20 percent from 1995/96's record 5.6 million tons. Significant declines in Canadian and Polish supplies are expected to depress rapeseed exports in both countries by more than 1.2 million tons. Similarly, reduced supplies in Argentine sunflowerseed and a rebound in Spanish sunflowerseed output, would cut world sunflowerseed trade for 1996/97. In contrast, world trade in soybeans and soybean meal is likely to increase 2 percent to 32.3 and 32 million tons, respectively. Soybean trade is projected to recover from 1995/96 due to greater imports by China, Brazil, and Mexico. Likewise, growth in soybean meal trade is expected to continue as growth in China and Southeast Asia, combined with small expansions in Latin America, the Middle East, and North Africa, will lift overall consumption. The EU, which is the largest soybean importer, is projected to slightly decrease soybean and soybean meal imports in 1996/97 compared to the previous year. Reduced crush margins, smaller livestock units, and relatively lower grain prices are expected to marginally decrease EU soybeans and meal imports. China's soybean meal supply-use gap is projected at 1.6 million tons in soybean meal equivalent. China's erratic trade policies cloud the 1996/97 outlook for soybean and soybean product trade. Currently, soybean meal imports are favored over soybeans. However, as new crushing facilities enter into production and domestic supplies shrink, China's government is expected to reverse this position in favor of soybeans. Foreign soybean exports are expected up for all exporting countries except for China, as increased supplies drive export availabilities upward. Soybean meal trade will likely benefit from a significant decline in fish meal production and trade. Overfishing in Peru is expected to produce a vast decline in the sardine and anchovy catch, which is likely to force the government of Peru to impose unusually long fishing bans for 1996 and 1997. WORLD VEGETABLE OIL AND MARINE OIL SITUATION AND OUTLOOK FOR 1996/97 Global supplies of edible oils are expected to increase only 1 percent to 78.1 million tons, the slowest growth in 4 years. World production of each edible oil is expected up, except for rapeseed, sunflower, fish, and cottonseed. Palm oil production is expected to grow faster than in 1995/96, but at a slower rate than in 1994/95. In Indonesia, new palm trees are expected to reach full production in 1997, while in Malaysia better rain patterns during 1996 are expected to support output gains in 1996/97. Soybean oil production is projected at a record of 20.2 million tons, while consumption is expected to reach 20.4 million tons, thus leading to a slightly lower carryover. Rapeseed oil accounts for the largest drop in edible oil production, although still the second largest ever. The less favorable outlook for world production of the high oil yielding seeds--sunflowerseed and rapeseed--will stimulate soybean oil trade. Global exports of soybean oil are projected up 5 percent to 5.6 million tons. For Brazil, exports will likely remain at 1.5 million tons due to limited supplies. In Argentina, record crush is expected to produce record soybean oil production, and lead to record soybean oil exports as domestic consumption remains small. U.S. soybean oil exports are expected to rebound to nearly 800,000 tons. On the import side, China will remain the single most important world market for vegetable oils, with imports of approximately 3.8 million tons. China's soybean oil imports at 1.5 million tons will be key to the U.S. outlook for soybean oil exports. Factors affecting China's soybean oil import decisionmaking are trade policy affecting tariffs and import licenses for soybean and other oils. In addition, other factors include palm oil prices, South American supplies, and China's oilseed output and soybean imports over soybean meal imports. CURRENT YEAR EXPORTS AND CRUSH EXHIBIT RENEWED STRENGTH Weekly soybean exports have showed recent vigor, leading USDA to increase its 1995/96 forecast from 825 million bushels to 835 million. Outstanding export sales (101 million bushels) are quite healthy at this point of the crop year and well above last year. Current reports of Chinese purchases have helped to move the market sharply upward again. The seasonal decline in domestic crushing has reversed somewhat since May. The reason for this resurgence stems from the depletion of South American supplies, which has rejuvenated demand for U.S. soybean meal exports. The new USDA forecast raises the 1995/96 estimated crush 5 million bushels to 1,360 million. The 15-million-bushel increase in total demand drops carryover stocks to 180 million bushels. The brighter crush outlook is driven by a hike in soybean meal exports, which were forecast up 150,000 short tons from last month. China has made initial purchases of 25,000 metric tons, which are the first from the United States since 1984. Given better export prospects and a surging corn price, the 1995/96 average soybean meal price forecast was raised to $230 per ton this month. On the other hand, business in the soybean oil sector remains relatively quiet, as U.S. prices remain above South American sources and well above Malaysian palm oil. Given that there have been no recent commercial sales, USDA reduced its export forecast to 1,275 million pounds, down 75 million from the June estimate. U.S. oil exports continue to suffer from the absence of Chinese trade. This year's soybean oil trade has dissipated to less than half of the record 1994/95 level (2,680 million pounds) and the smallest volume since 1990/91. In fact, U.S. imports of soybean oil have risen this year as new Canadian crushing capacity has come on stream. Domestic soybean oil stocks probably peaked for the year in May at 1,762 million pounds, which were curbed by the seasonal slowdown in crush. This is the highest inventory in 3 years. Domestic oil disappearance also appears to be steady. USDA raised its 1995/96 forecast 50 million pounds this month to 13.4 billion and carryout stocks in September should settle to just under 1.7 billion pounds. The upward trend in the price for soybean oil has been suspended (dropping about 1.5 cents per pound in June) by the pickup in oil production and weak exports. Note to readers: The customary July publication date for the Oil Crops Yearbook has been moved to October. That publication will serve as a complete wrap-up for the 1995/96 marketing year with final data on oilseed production, domestic disappearance, foreign trade, ending stocks, prices, and end uses of oils. ****************************************************************************** Information Contacts: Mark Ash Soybeans, Minor Oilseeds, Fats and Oils (202) 219-0712 Scott Sanford Peanuts, Cottonseed (202) 219-0835 Jaime Castaneda World Oilseeds (202) 219-0826 ****************************************************************************** The next Oil Crops Outlook is scheduled for 4:00 pm ET Tuesday, August 13. Table 1--Soybeans: U.S. supply and disappearance ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Supply Disappearance -------------------------------- ------------------------------------ Year Seed, begin. Beg. Im- Produc- Total Crush Ex- feed, Total End. Sept. 1 stocks ports tion ports & resid. stocks ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------- Million bushels-------------------------- 1994/95 209 6 2,517 2,731 1,405 838 153 2,396 335 1995/96 1/ 335 5 2,152 2,492 1,360 835 117 2,312 180 1996/97 1/ 180 5 2,315 2,500 1,370 825 120 2,315 185 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Forecast. Table 2--Soybean meal: U.S. supply and disappearance ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Supply Disappearance ---------------------------- ------------------------------------ Year begin. Beg. Produc- Total Domestic Ex- Total End. Oct. 1 stocks tion ports stocks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ---------------------------1,000 short tons-------------------------- 1994/95 150 33,265 33,479 26,538 6,717 33,256 223 1995/96 1/ 223 32,422 32,725 27,000 5,500 32,500 225 1996/97 1/ 225 32,575 32,875 27,000 5,650 32,650 225 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Forecast. Table 3--Soybean oil: U.S. supply and disappearance ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Supply Disappearance ---------------------------- ------------------------------------ Year begin. Beg. Produc- Total Domestic Ex- Total End. Oct. 1 stocks tion ports stocks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------- Million pounds--------------------------- 1994/95 1,103 15,613 16,733 12,916 2,680 15,596 1,137 1995/96 1/ 1,137 15,155 16,370 13,400 1,275 14,675 1,695 1996/97 1/ 1,695 15,380 17,075 13,500 1,750 15,250 1,880 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Forecast. Table 4--Oilseeds prices received by farmers, U.S. -------------------------------------------------------- Marketing Soy- Cotton- Sun- year beans seed flowers Peanuts Flaxseed -------------------------------------------------------- $/bu. $/ton $/cwt Cents/lb $/bu. 1990/91 5.74 121.00 10.80 34.70 5.27 1991/92 5.58 71.00 8.69 28.30 3.52 1992/93 5.56 97.50 9.74 30.00 4.12 1993/94 6.40 113.00 12.90 30.40 4.25 1994/95 5.48 101.00 10.70 28.90 4.63 1995/961 6.80 106.00 11.35 29.30 5.25 1994/95 September 5.47 101.00 10.70 30.60 4.55 October 5.30 96.00 10.50 28.60 4.52 November 5.36 107.00 10.60 25.90 4.52 December 5.41 103.00 10.60 25.80 4.72 January 5.47 95.00 10.50 25.50 4.76 February 5.40 70.00 10.80 NA 4.94 March 5.51 NA 10.40 NA 5.13 April 5.55 NA 10.70 NA 5.10 May 5.56 NA 10.60 NA 4.91 June 5.68 NA 10.70 NA 5.03 July 5.90 NA 11.50 NA 5.11 August 5.83 100.00 11.40 30.60 5.21 1995/96 September 5.98 100.00 11.00 29.70 5.11 October 6.15 99.00 11.00 28.60 5.11 November 6.40 114.00 10.80 29.50 5.17 December 6.76 116.00 10.60 28.60 5.03 January 6.77 98.00 11.00 29.80 5.27 February 7.01 120.00 11.50 NA 5.18 March 7.00 NA 11.90 NA 5.28 April 7.43 NA 12.50 NA 5.31 May 7.69 NA 13.60 NA 6.03 June1 7.43 NA 13.10 NA 6.06 -------------------------------------------------------- 1 Preliminary. Table 5--Vegetable oil prices --------------------------------------------------- Cotton- Sun- Marketing Soybean seed flower Peanut Corn year oil2 oil3 oil4 oil5 oil6 --------------------------------------------------- Cents/lb. 1990/91 21.00 24.10 23.67 45.50 27.50 1991/92 19.10 22.83 21.63 27.30 25.82 1992/93 21.40 30.07 25.37 27.40 20.90 1993/94 27.00 30.30 31.08 43.20 26.38 1994/95 27.51 29.23 28.10 44.30 26.47 1995/961 25.00 26.24 25.50 40.00 25.55 1994/95 October 27.06 27.81 28.90 46.00 24.73 November 29.84 30.72 29.40 50.88 24.75 December 30.61 31.83 30.63 53.80 24.75 January 29.04 28.70 29.25 50.25 28.01 February 28.15 29.95 27.66 41.83 27.26 March 28.33 27.14 27.97 41.00 28.17 April 26.30 27.61 26.89 41.25 27.30 May 26.00 27.51 26.34 40.25 26.42 June 26.78 30.04 27.30 39.00 26.61 July 27.60 30.63 28.69 39.13 27.38 August 26.56 30.26 27.47 41.50 26.35 September 26.26 28.61 27.41 41.30 25.93 1995/96 October 26.56 27.61 27.49 42.50 26.05 November 25.41 26.27 26.25 41.63 25.54 December 24.76 26.10 25.98 39.20 24.99 January 23.69 24.45 24.65 37.25 24.52 February 23.65 24.35 24.23 36.00 24.30 March 23.60 24.25 24.28 36.60 24.34 April 25.82 26.77 25.63 39.25 26.60 May 26.50 28.46 26.38 42.80 27.98 June1 24.95 27.94 25.72 43.00 25.66 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Preliminary 2 Decatur 3 PBSY Greenwood MS 4 Minneapolis 5 Southeast mills 6 Chicago Table 6--Oilseed meal prices --------------------------------------------------- Soy- Cotton Sun- Marketing bean seed flower Peanut Linseed year meal2 meal3 meal4 meal5 meal4 --------------------------------------------------- $/Short ton 1990/91 181.40 130.75 88.00 193.00 130.10 1991/92 189.20 140.50 76.80 154.50 125.25 1992/93 193.75 161.78 89.00 172.90 133.60 1993/94 192.86 164.30 94.00 194.91 139.55 1994/95 162.55 112.02 62.70 128.94 95.85 1995/961 230.00 189.38 130.00 190.00 133.60 1994/95 October 168.50 134.40 75.00 151.25 122.50 November 161.00 120.50 69.50 147.50 110.00 December 156.90 114.20 52.50 127.00 95.60 January 156.40 106.75 50.00 105.00 82.40 February 151.30 97.50 46.88 107.50 85.25 March 156.90 100.30 52.50 119.00 90.00 April 161.90 98.10 62.50 125.00 94.40 May 159.10 92.75 60.90 123.75 85.00 June 160.40 108.75 62.38 134.00 85.00 July 170.45 116.90 73.75 138.75 92.50 August 166.70 116.50 83.75 136.25 95.00 September 180.99 137.60 NA 142.00 112.50 October 193.90 153.25 82.88 132.50 131.00 November 204.10 165.00 99.00 175.00 151.67 December 223.60 185.80 122.50 204.00 143.75 January 232.00 208.80 135.00 220.00 142.00 February 228.30 202.80 130.00 215.00 143.75 March 226.57 195.60 123.50 210.00 155.00 April 249.30 220.00 133.00 210.00 174.00 May 244.30 191.25 137.00 212.00 177.00 June 1 238.80 195.63 135.00 210.00 178.75 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1 Preliminary 2 Hi-pro Decatur 3 41% Memphis 4 Minneapolis 5 50% SE mills END-END-END