OIL CROPS OUTLOOK July 14, 1997 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ OIL CROPS OUTLOOK is a monthly report issued electronically by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. No printed copies are available. OCS-0797. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Soybean Plantings Soar to 15-Year High In 1997, U.S. farmers planted an estimated 70.9 million acres of soybeans, 6.6 million more than in 1996/97. This would be the third-largest area planted on record and the first time in history that U.S. planted acreage for soybeans have exceeded wheat area. Despite a moderation in soybean area from March intentions in Illinois, Nebraska, and Arkansas, most States had higher plantings, raising total U.S. acreage 2 million acres above intentions. Every State will have more soybean area this year, with the single exception of Ohio, which held steady to its 1996 record acreage. Iowa, again the top soybean producing State, will plant 1 million more acres than in 1996. The higher soybean acreage comes mostly at the expense of corn, wheat, and sorghum. Soybeans also benefitted from delays in planting cotton in the Delta region. While it was previously apparent that farmers in the West Corn Belt intended to plant record acreage, the same strong response was less expected from the East Corn Belt. Very strong prices, the absence of acreage set aside programs, modifications of farm rotations to include more soybeans, and optimum planting conditions led to this surge in soybean production. reduced winter wheat acreage will curtail double-cropped soybean area, which tends to have a lower average yield. Although far from made, most of the soybean crop heads into the summer in very good shape with adequate soil moisture reserves. As of July 6, 68 percent of soybeans were rated in good to excellent condition, and almost all States had at least a majority in these top two classifications. While currently only in the early blooming stage, soybean conditions are generally better than they were a year ago but not quite as good as in 1994, the previous record crop. With a harvested acreage estimate of 69.8 million acres, total production is expected to reach a record 2,690 million bushels. This would surpass the 1996/97 harvest by more than 300 million bushels, which was the second-largest crop to date. Soybean prices sagged in June as excellent growing conditions prevailed. The bumper harvest suggested by the June 30 Acreage report sent new crop soybean futures tumbling further, which are now below $6.00 per bushel for November delivery. The 1997/98 season average farm price is expected to range $5.40-$6.60 per bushel. Despite projections for solid growth in demand, the bumper harvest will boost carryout stocks to 285 million bushels, a 128-percent increase. The ample domestic supply will remove most incentives for importing soybeans in 1997/98, which will revert to the more typical level of 5 million bushels. Record soybean exports of 930 million bushels (surpassing the previous high of 929 million in 1981/82) are forecast for 1997/98. As of June 26, export sales of soybeans for 1997/98 totaled 121 million bushels. This is a very fast pace for this date (80 percent above last year's sales), and may soon accelerate given better information about the potentially huge new U.S. crop. Export volumes this fall are likely to set monthly records. Brisk demand for soybean products will also push domestic crush and production of soybean meal and oil well above their 1996/97 records. The Hogs and Pigs report pegged the June 1 U.S. hog inventory at 58.2 million head, 2 percent above a year earlier. Expansion of the breeding herd is continuing as more sows and gilts are being retained from current slaughter. Despite this, the breeding herd was only 1 percent higher than last year, and the expansion would seem to be developing slower than expected. This spring's pig crop was just 2 percent higher than last year. On the other hand, a more positive note in the report for future feed consumption indicates that June-November farrowing intentions are up 6 percent from the previous year. Current feed price ratios for hogs (less so for poultry) have dramatically improved from a year ago. Declining soybean meal prices will accentuate this trend in coming months, as they are forecast to drop from an average $262 per ton this season to $190-$215 in 1997/98. The forecast for domestic soybean meal disappearance for 1997/98 was raised to 28.1 million short tons this month. The 3.6-percent increase in 1997/98 disappearance would be double the yearly growth rate of the previous year. The large potential vegetable oil supply will keep a lid on 1997/98 soybean oil prices, expected to range 21.0-24.5 cents per pound. At this level, U.S. soybean oil exports would be quite competitive, boosting them to 2,050 million pounds. Sunflower, Minor Oilseed Acreage Rebound U.S. sunflower acreage is also greater this season, although less than initially indicated from the March intentions report. U.S. farmers planted 2.92 million acres, up 14 percent from 1996. Non-oil type sunflower acreage is a record high 628,000 acres. Virtually all of the area increase was in North Dakota. But with a yield closer to trend, 1997/98 sunflowerseed production should be about 3.6 billion pounds, little changed from 1996/97. Falling prices (under pressure from higher supplies of soybeans and sunflowerseed) will enhance domestic crush and exports of sunflowerseed. Stable prices for sunflower oil should recapture foreign markets for oil exports that are expected to reach about 575 million pounds. Growing consumption in the Mexican and Turkish markets represent opportunities for greater 1997/98 U.S. sunflower oil sales. The upward trend in U.S. canola acreage resumes after last season's downturn. Canola plantings for 1997 are estimated at 733,000 acres, double 1996's 366,000 acres. Expanding domestic supplies will curb the appetite for 1997/98 canola seed imports from Canada. Plantings of flaxseed surged 58 percent to 152,000 acres. A more modest 9 percent increase in safflower acreage, to 263,000 acres, was also reported. High Prices To Boost 1997/98 World Supplies of Oilseeds After stagnating this year, world oilseed production is expected to climb nearly 7 percent in 1997/98, to 275.2 million metric tons. Projected foreign oilseeds production would rise 4 percent to 192.1 million tons, compared with an 11-percent increase in U.S. oilseeds output to 83.1 million tons. Strong Asian demand should elevate world trade in oilseeds by 6 percent to 49.1 million tons. Oilseeds prices will ease as world stocks rebuild from a quite tight 16.6 million tons to 22.4 million. Gains in soybean production account for 89 percent of the expected increase in 1997/98 global oilseeds production. World soybean production is projected to increase 11 percent to 146.7 million tons. The United States, Brazil, and Argentina account for more than 80 percent of the year-to-year growth in output. Consequently, these three countries will also share nearly the same proportion of the 5-percent increase in world soybean trade. Even with a dynamic crush market, global soybean stocks would be restored to about 19.1 million tons. For 1997/98, Brazilian soybean area is projected to expand 7 percent to 12.6 million hectares. Currently, farmers are basking in a climate where they are receiving very high prices on a record output. These profits will provide the capital for opening virgin land, particularly in the Center-West, to cultivation next year. Improvements in internal transportation infrastructure makes farmland in these remote areas more viable. Purchases of farm machinery and other inputs will also swell. Seed demand has been unusually advanced so soon after the previous harvest. The debt situation for smaller producers will get better, as interest rates will be lowered and borrowing levels increased for government loans on 1997/98 crops. Higher area is expected to push 1997/98 production to a record 28.0 million tons. Argentine 1997/98 soybean production is expected to increase to 13.9 million tons as yields recover from this season's prolonged drought. If dry weather persists into August, winter wheat seeding will remain stalled and reduce planting of second-crop soybeans. If it stays too dry to plant wheat, more first-crop soybeans may be planted. With substantial recent investments in crushing capacity, the rebound in Argentine soybean exports will be constrained around the 1995/96 level of 2.0 million tons. This would be well below Argentine export volumes of the early 1990's. With a 9-percent area increase, China's 1997/98 soybean production is anticipated to increase to 14.5 million tons. The main soybean growing regions of Manchuria have received adequate rainfall so far, but dry weather has stressed secondary areas in the North China Plain. However, this level of domestic output would not be enough to stanch the trade flow, as booming demand for protein meal and vegetable oil are projected to require soybean imports of 2.25 million tons. Despite an erratic start, fears about a failure of the southwest monsoon in India were eased by late June and early July rainfall on the major soybean producing regions of central India. The rains assured enough soil moisture to complete soybean planting. Adverse harvest weather that cut India's 1996 production to 4.1 million tons is not expected to reoccur. India's 1997 production is forecast to rise to 4.5 million tons. Moderately growing vegetable oil consumption and virtually flat protein meal consumption in Japan will create slightly better crush margins for rapeseed than soybeans next year. This would trim Japanese 1997/98 imports of soybeans to 4.7 million tons from 4.8 million this year. After this year's decline, abundant European and Canadian rapeseed production will turn around global output in 1997/98, which is expected to total 33.2 million tons. Little growth in the 1997 Chinese rapeseed output is forecast, staying near last year's 9.2 million tons. Steady area and trend yields slightly reduce Indian projected production from 6.3 million tons to 6.2 million. While not back to the 1995/96 level, world rapeseed trade will benefit from the larger surpluses in exporting countries. Production of rapeseed in the European Union (EU) will bounce back to 8.1 million tons in 1997/98, which is a little less than the record 1995/96 outturn. France's 1997 production of rapeseed will climb to 3.0 million tons on account of much higher area. But French yields will moderate from the near ideal 1996 conditions. Germany is forecast to rebound from a harsh winter that depressed the 1996 harvest and increase production this year 52 percent to 2.8 million tons. The 1997 German rapeseed harvest is just beginning and is reported in good condition. Based on a very large area planted, the 1997 United Kingdom production is also headed for another record. In Eastern Europe, rapeseed production will suffer its second consecutive bad year because of fewer plantings and poor yields. Severe winterkill damaged over half of rapeseed area in Poland last winter. With minimal spring sowings, 1997 harvested area should be reduced to just 220,000 hectares, the smallest since 1979. In addition, recent flooding has threatened crops in Poland and the Czech Republic, although the extent of that potential damage is still unclear. Another poor rapeseed harvest, well below crush demand near 0.8 million tons, will compel Poland to import as much as 430,000 tons, mostly from EU sources. Canada's intended area planted to rapeseed this year is 4.9 million hectares, substantially higher than 1996/97's 3.5 million. Canada also expects record production of soybeans and flaxseed, as plantings are up 21 and 41 percent, respectively, from last year. Most of this area shift came at the expense of wheat. Canadian rapeseed production is forecast up 25 percent to 6.3 million tons, which would make it the third largest harvest. Since mid-June, widespread showers have relieved early season dryness in the southern prairies, just in time for the current blooming phase. Despite the anticipated rebound in supplies, the absence of western transportation subsidies will limit the growth of Canada's 1997/98 rapeseed exports. The principal foreign rapeseed market, Japan, is expected to increase imports a modest 3-percent to 1.95 million tons and should obtain a greater share from expanding Australian sources. Canadian rapeseed exports would rise from 2.4 million to 2.6 million tons, but far less than the 1994/95 record of 3.9 million. Domestic rapeseed crush will drive total demand as exports of canola oil to the United States pick up again. Australian farmers finished planting rapeseed in June, with 1997/98 rapeseed area estimated at 0.6 million hectares. Attractive prices, rotation considerations (Australia had a huge cereal grains area last year), and better varieties have promoted a surge in rapeseed planting. This area in 1997/98 would produce a record Australian harvest around 850,000 tons, up 37 percent from last year and 310,000 tons just 3 years ago. Moisture has been adequate in western Australia, but dryness in the Southeast part of the country has stressed rapeseed. Despite recent additions to domestic crush capacity, much of the surplus seed output will be exported to the principal Asian markets of Japan and Bangladesh. Growing quantities of rapeseed oil also will begin to be exported throughout East Asia. Global sunflowerseed production is due to rise less than 3 percent in 1997/98 to 24.2 million tons. Argentine sunflowerseed production will nudge upward to 5.3 million tons on 2.95 million hectares harvested. In the former Soviet Union (FSU), a return to more normal weather will boost production 18 percent to 6.1 million tons. In both Russia and the Ukraine, generous rainfall in late May and June has favored sunflower development. The active export trade that the FSU countries have had over the last several years should resume. This will not be the case in 1997 for Eastern Europe, where plantings have declined in Romania, Hungary, and Bulgaria. EU sunflower producers have been pressured by strengthening FSU and Eastern Europe competition. Given expected increases in 1997 rapeseed and soybean area and limits on EU total oilseeds area imposed by the Blair House Agreement, 1997 EU sunflower area should go down again. Lower expected yields in France and Spain will help cut EU 1997 sunflowerseed production 10 percent to 3.5 million tons. Western Europe was blessed by excellent weather in 1996, resulting in unusually good yields. Despite stagnant production, EU sunflowerseed crushing will rise. Abundant crushing capacity in the EU will increasingly attract more trade from the FSU and Eastern Europe, which lack adequate processing facilities. International sunflowerseed trade will benefit from the larger world supplies, rising 11 percent to 3.2 million tons. In turn, the FSU has become a major importer of the EU's sunflower oil. Global 1997/98 cottonseed output will slip to 33.8 million tons, hovering near this year's 34.0 million tons. Production losses in China, India, and the United States will be nearly offset by gains in the FSU and Pakistan. Forecast world cottonseed crush will dip 1 percent to 26.0 million tons. World 1997/98 peanut production is projected at 26.4 million tons, slightly less than 1996/97 output of 26.5 million. Small reductions are anticipated for China, India, and the United States, the world's largest producers. Modest production gains throughout Africa and Argentina partially offset prospective losses in these countries. The principal peanut regions of western India have received adequate rain this summer to promote early development, but will need more for a successful harvest. With global consumption of peanuts for food use rising, consumption for crushing will decline somewhat. International trade in peanuts and peanut products is relatively minor, as most are consumed within their country of origin. Global Protein Meal Supplies Keep Pace With Consumption The world's livestock will consume 151.8 million tons of protein meals in 1997/98. The 3-percent increase is largely due to growth in soybean meal use, with smaller increases for rapeseed and other meals. Accordingly, soybean meal will increase its predominance in world oilseed meals trade. A gain of 1.5 million tons in global soybean meal trade is anticipated, for a total of 34.6 million. More abundant protein meal supplies should relieve the price jump of the last 2 years. Rising foreign demand, especially in Asia, is forecast to lift U.S. soybean meal exports to 6.3 million metric tons, the highest volume since 1991/92. The elimination of Brazil's differential export taxes gave soybean exports a major boost this year versus soybean meal. Yet, 1997/98 soybean meal exports of 11.1 million tons will rank below only the 1995/96 record volume. Meanwhile, the 8.9-million-ton export forecast for Argentina draws it even closer to the distinction of being the world's largest soybean meal exporter. The resurgence in India's output should also drive that country's exports to an all-time high of 2.75 million tons. The gap between China's domestic soybean meal supplies and its consumption continues to widen. Cumulative 1997/98 Chinese soybean meal imports are projected at 3.0 million tons. Bigger supplies of high-oil yielding, European produced oilseeds will undercut vegetable oils prices and weaken EU crushing margins. This would deter EU soybean imports, but raise import needs for soybean meal. A retreat from very high 1996/97 soybean meal prices will also encourage EU 1997/98 imports higher to 15.8 million tons. Steadier World Vegetable Oil Market Foreseen Soybean oil and palm oil account for most of the gains in 1997/98 global vegetable oil output. The 2.7-percent increase in total vegetable oil, to 75.4 million tons, signifies a pickup from the 1.5-percent growth in 1996/97. Projected palm oil production is seen up nearly 4 percent from this season, to 17.4 million tons. Expansion of palm area has nearly reached its limit in Malaysia so that much of the world's production growth will come from Indonesia. However, with soaring domestic consumption within Indonesia, world palm oil exports will plateau. World rapeseed oil production is also projected 4 percent higher, with most of that increase due to greater EU crushing. For years, China has been the premier import market for vegetable oils. In 1997/98, Chinese imports of 3.6 million tons are expected, with 1.55 million as soybean oil and 1.5 million as palm oil. Import growth by India will moderate as domestic oil production (particularly soybean oil) keeps pace with consumption. Rationing of Remaining 1996/97 U.S. Supplies Imperative Until New Harvest A surprisingly low June 1 soybean inventory was recently reported in USDA's Grain Stocks. The 499-million-bushel inventory is the smallest June 1 quantity since 1989. Given what was known about year-to-date soybean disposition, this prompted an increase in the residual category to 67 million bushels. Higher than expected 1997 planting also raised estimated 1996/97 seed use to 79 million bushels. Confirmation of the current low supplies will further ration domestic crush and exports for the remainder of the crop year, each of which are down 5 million bushels from last month's forecast. While export commitments are near the 890 million bushel forecast, new sales in June were nearly offset by cancellations and rollovers to 1997/98 delivery. Year ending stocks are also estimated down to 125 million bushels. Despite this tight situation, cash soybean prices have fallen due to the very favorable outlook for the new 1997 crop. A larger than normal amount of early maturing soybeans in the Delta, as well as some imports, will help supplement old crop supplies in the summer quarter. Soybean oil and meal production are revised downward given the lower crush forecast. Export registrations of Brazilian soybeans have slowed, shifting the focus onto exports of soybean meal. These will eclipse new U.S. export sales of soybean meal, trimming the current year forecast to 6.7 million short tons. Expectations for a very large soybean harvest this fall are also weighing down current soybean oil prices, trimming the 1996/97 expected average to 23.0 cents per pound. In Argentina, a severe drought is responsible for cutting the 1996/97 soybean crop, which is estimated down this month to 11.5 million metric tons. This year, a greater proportion of soybeans were planted as a second crop following wheat. That substantially increased the number of fields that were developing pods during a very dry April. Argentine soybean exports are estimated lower to 400,000 tons, compared with 2.1 million last season. Normally a large net exporter, Argentina reportedly purchased 150,000 tons from Bolivia, Brazil, and Paraguay, and 60,000 tons from the United States to cover its deficit between domestic production and crush demand. Improvements along the Parana River have also contributed to the feasibility of imports from neighboring countries. Argentina's misfortune has turned into an opportunity for Brazil. Current year Brazilian soybean exports continue to break all records, now estimated at 7.85 million tons. However, the peak of the marketing activity for soybean exports has passed and is now slowing. Export registrations for soybean meal have only recently surpassed those for soybeans. The sharp increase in exports has reduced availability of supplies for domestic crushing, which is expected down to 19.7 million tons from 21.6 million in 1995/96. Table 1--Soybeans: U.S. supply and disappearance ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Supply Disappearance -------------------------------- ------------------------------------ Year Seed, begin. Beg. Im- Produc- Total Crush Ex- feed, Total End. Sept. 1 stocks ports tion ports residual stocks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------- Million bushels--------------------------- 1995/96 335 4 2,177 2,516 1,370 851 112 2,333 183 1996/97 1/ 183 20 2,382 2,586 1,425 890 136 2,461 125 1997/98 2/ 125 5 2,690 2,820 1,470 930 135 2,535 285 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Estimated. 2/ Forecast. Table 2--Soybean meal: U.S. supply and disappearance ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Supply Disappearance ---------------------------- ------------------------------------ Year begin. Beg. Produc- Total Domestic Ex- Total End. Oct. 1 stocks tion 1/ ports stocks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ---------------------------1,000 short tons-------------------------- 1995/96 223 32,527 32,825 26,611 6,002 32,613 212 1996/97 2/ 212 33,688 34,000 27,100 6,700 33,800 200 1997/98 3/ 200 34,900 35,250 28,100 6,900 35,000 200 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes imports. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Forecast. Table 3--Soybean oil: U.S. supply and disappearance ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Supply Disappearance ---------------------------- ------------------------------------ Year begin. Beg. Produc- Total Domestic Ex- Total End. Oct. 1 stocks tion 1/ ports stocks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------- Million pounds--------------------------- 1995/96 1,137 15,240 16,472 13,465 992 14,457 2,015 1996/97 2/ 2,015 15,460 17,525 13,950 1,800 15,750 1,775 1997/98 3/ 1,800 16,390 18,225 14,200 2,050 16,250 1,975 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Includes imports. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Forecast. Table 4--Oilseeds prices received by farmers, U.S. -------------------------------------------------------- Marketing Soy- Cotton- Sun- year beans seed flowers Peanuts Flaxseed -------------------------------------------------------- $/bu. $/ton $/cwt Cents/lb $/bu. 1991/92 5.58 71.00 8.69 28.30 3.52 1992/93 5.56 97.50 9.74 30.00 4.12 1993/94 6.40 113.00 12.90 30.40 4.25 1994/95 5.48 101.00 10.70 28.90 4.63 1995/96 1/ 6.77 106.00 11.50 29.30 5.25 1996/97 1/ 7.35 125.00 11.85 28.50 6.25 1995/96 September 5.98 101.00 11.00 29.70 5.11 October 6.16 99.00 11.00 28.60 5.11 November 6.40 114.00 10.80 29.50 5.17 December 6.76 116.00 10.70 28.60 5.03 January 6.78 106.00 11.10 29.80 5.27 February 7.00 117.00 11.50 NA 5.18 March 7.00 NA 12.10 NA 5.28 April 7.43 NA 12.70 NA 5.31 May 7.69 NA 13.50 NA 6.03 June 7.41 NA 14.30 NA 5.88 July 7.62 NA 13.70 NA 6.19 August 7.82 118.00 12.70 NA 6.15 1996/97 September 7.79 129.00 12.00 27.70 5.89 October 6.95 123.00 11.70 25.80 6.49 November 6.90 117.00 11.90 25.00 6.50 December 6.91 136.00 11.60 25.60 6.79 January 7.13 132.00 11.80 24.30 6.42 February 7.38 128.00 12.20 NA 6.30 March 7.97 NA 12.20 NA 6.66 April 8.23 NA 12.40 NA 6.49 May 8.40 NA 12.10 NA 6.50 June 1/ 8.22 NA 11.20 NA 6.29 -------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Preliminary. Table 5--Vegetable oil prices --------------------------------------------------- Cotton- Sun- Marketing Soybean seed flower Peanut Corn year oil 2/ oil 3/ oil 4/ oil 5/ oil 6/ --------------------------------------------------- Cents/lb. 1991/92 19.10 22.83 21.63 27.30 25.82 1992/93 21.40 30.07 25.37 27.40 20.90 1993/94 27.00 30.30 31.08 43.20 26.38 1994/95 27.51 29.23 28.10 44.30 26.47 1995/96 24.70 26.53 25.40 40.30 25.55 1996/97 1/ 23.50 25.50 24.00 41.50 24.00 1995/96 October 26.57 27.61 27.49 42.50 26.05 November 25.42 26.27 26.25 41.63 25.54 December 24.76 26.10 25.98 39.20 24.99 January 23.52 24.45 24.65 37.25 24.52 February 23.49 24.35 24.23 36.00 24.30 March 23.60 24.25 24.28 36.60 24.34 April 25.70 26.77 25.63 39.25 26.60 May 26.50 28.46 26.38 42.80 27.98 June 24.95 27.94 25.72 43.00 25.66 July 24.10 28.25 24.58 43.00 25.46 August 23.99 27.81 24.90 42.60 24.33 September 23.92 26.13 24.90 40.80 24.14 1996/97 October 21.95 24.55 22.80 41.50 22.67 November 21.80 24.28 22.50 39.20 22.96 December 21.60 24.29 22.30 40.75 22.27 January 22.45 25.21 22.65 43.50 23.39 February 22.41 25.44 23.07 43.88 23.97 March 23.29 26.18 22.70 44.75 24.38 April 23.17 25.10 23.50 45.00 24.60 May 23.68 25.19 23.20 46.20 24.66 June 1 22.97 25.01 22.33 47.88 24.82 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Preliminary 2/ Decatur 3/ PBSY Greenwood MS 4/ Minneapolis 5/ Southeast mills 6/ Chicago Table 6--Oilseed meal prices --------------------------------------------------- Soy- Cotton Sun- Marketing bean seed flower Peanut Linseed year meal 2/ meal 3/ meal 4/ meal 5/ meal 4/ --------------------------------------------------- $/Short ton 1991/92 189.20 140.50 76.80 154.50 125.25 1992/93 193.75 161.78 89.00 172.90 133.60 1993/94 192.86 164.30 94.00 194.91 139.55 1994/95 162.55 112.02 62.70 128.94 95.85 1995/96 235.90 190.74 123.75 202.70 159.05 1996/97 1/ 262.00 200.00 139.50 232.00 170.00 1995/96 October 193.90 153.25 82.88 132.50 131.00 November 204.10 165.00 99.00 175.00 151.67 December 223.60 185.80 122.50 204.00 143.75 January 232.00 208.80 135.00 220.00 142.00 February 228.30 202.80 130.00 215.00 143.75 March 226.57 195.60 123.50 210.00 155.00 April 249.30 220.00 133.00 210.00 174.00 May 244.30 191.25 137.00 212.00 177.00 June 238.80 192.20 135.00 210.00 178.75 July 252.50 201.56 135.00 224.25 174.00 August 261.20 193.10 126.25 227.00 170.00 September 276.40 193.10 125.60 192.80 167.50 1996/97 October 248.50 183.25 116.00 170.00 175.00 November 251.50 196.60 105.00 146.13 166.25 December 250.60 224.50 113.35 172.67 171.65 January 249.20 207.20 125.00 221.00 165.00 February 262.40 183.75 137.50 228.13 156.25 March 280.50 189.10 121.70 225.00 163.30 April 288.60 197.25 124.00 233.75 168.00 May 306.40 193.75 120.00 222.00 188.30 June 1/ 287.90 188.44 106.25 235.00 171.25 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Preliminary. 2/ Hi-pro Decatur. 3/ 41% Memphis. 4/ Minneapolis. 5/ 50% SE mills. The next Oil Crops Outlook is scheduled for 4:00 pm ET Wednesday, August 13. END_OF_FILE