OIL CROPS OUTLOOK February 11, 2002 February 2002, OCS-0202 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OIL CROPS OUTLOOK is issued 11 times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. OIL CROPS OUTLOOK is supplemented by an annual OIL CROPS YEARBOOK. The yearbook summary for 2001 will be released on October 23, 2002. Yearbooks are available in print from USDA Order Desk. For the 2002 issue, call 1-800-999-6779 (703-605-6220) and ask for stock #ERS-OCS-2002, $21. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Note to readers: Beginning in March 2002, this report will be released only in PDF format. Acrobat Reader 4.0 or later is required to view and print this document. To download and get help using the Adobe Acrobat Reader, please go to http://www.adobe.com/products/acrobat/readstep.html. Subscribers who receive e- mail notification will be provided a URL link to the report http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/so/view.asp?f=field/ocs-bb/ in the message block of the e-mail. Steady Shipments Boost U.S. Soybean Export Forecast U.S. soybean exports for 2001/02 were forecast 10 million bushels higher this month to 1,020 million. Domestic soybean crushing was forecast 5 million bushels higher to 1,680 million. Despite a higher crush, 2001/02 soybean meal production was left unchanged at 40.1 million short tons because of an offsetting reduction in the meal extraction rate. As a result of the stronger demand outlook, the season ending soybean stocks forecast fell to 270 million bushels, down 15 million from last month. With the solid demand, soybean prices modestly rallied during January, but weakened late in the month following an improvement in South American growing conditions. The expected price range for soybeans was narrowed to $4.00-$4.60 per bushel. Soybean meal prices exhibited the same trend as soybeans in January. The 2001/02 average price forecast was unchanged at $150-$165 per short ton. Soybean oil export shipments sharply slowed in December. At the moment, U.S. prices are favorably competitive against South American soybean oil. Export sales and donations of soybean oil will probably accelerate in the next several months, including a new government donation of 60,000 metric tons to Pakistan. However, slower than expected growth in total export commitments led the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to trim its 2001/02 forecast by 100 million pounds to 2,400 million. Domestic oil consumption has remained very strong, prompting a small increase in the 2001/02 forecast to 16,750 million pounds. But, following a record December crush, domestic soybean oil stocks have remained record high. Although the season ending carryout is expected to decline from 2,877 million to 2,535 million pounds, the reduction from 2000/01 is less than earlier forecasts. The monthly average soybean oil price weakened in January to 14.8 cents per pound. The 2001/02 average price range forecast was shaved to 14.5-16.0 cents per pound this month. Rain Eases Dryness in Southern Brazil Late in January, heavy rains alleviated a 6-week dry spell in Brazils southernmost states of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. The states account for about 20 percent of Brazils soybean area. While the timely moisture prevents further deterioration, yield potential will be stunted on the most advanced fields. In Rio Grande do Sul, as of January 25, just 4 percent of soybeans had developed to the podding stage, 36 percent were flowering, and 60 percent were still in a vegetative state. Elsewhere in Brazil, soil moisture conditions have been exceptionally favorable. The soybean harvest has begun in the earliest sown fields, and excellent overall yields are anticipated. The 2001/02 soybean production forecast was unchanged this month at 42.5 million metric tons. Nearby in Paraguay, rains mostly missed its major soybean-producing region. Paraguays 2001/02 soybean harvest was forecast lower to 3.3 million tons, down from 3.5 million last year. The change reduces forecast Paraguayan exports to 2.4 million tons. In Argentina, conditions for soybeans are generally good. Yet, the crop was planted later than normal, which will delay its maturity and harvesting. There was no change this month in the 2001/02 production forecast of 28.75 million tons, although the 2000/01 harvest was revised up 300,000 tons to 27.5 million. Chinas Biotech Import Regulations Create Hurdles for Foreign Exporters On January 7, the Government of China announced new details of its import policies for transgenic products, which were first issued in June 2001. Beginning March 20, every foreign shipment of biotech products must apply for a safety certificate from the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA), including a government statement from the originating country that it poses no harm to humans, animals, or the environment. Labeling would apply to biotech oilseeds as well as their processed derivatives such as soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil. Sales can be made only after the certificates are issued. Upon arrival the imports must be quarantined while inspections are conducted to verify the presence of any genetically engineered material, as well as diseases or other impurities. Yet, specific information required from the applications for safety certificates is still ambiguous. Some of the data requested could be proprietary information available only from a biotech seed developer. And, with no explicit specification of a tolerance level, Chinas labeling regulations would effectively establish a zero-tolerance limit, similar to standards imposed by South Korea and the European Union. Zero-tolerance means that the presence of any genetically engineered commodities would have to be labeled and subject to the safety certificates. Current testing equipment can detect the presence of altered proteins within 0.01 percent. Last year, biotech varieties accounted for 68 percent of the soybeans grown in the United States and 88 percent in Argentina. The MOA will accept no applications until March 20, and the deadline for the first submission is March 31. The next opportunity for applications will not be until September 30. Authorities are allowed up to 270 working days for each approval, although subsequent approvals should take less time than the first ones. The inspection alone could add up to a month to the process. So, after implementation there probably will be a temporary halt in the orderly movement of foreign oilseed products to China. Shortly after the January announcement, exports of U.S. soybeans surged as Chinese processors rush to secure delivery before March 20. Although U.S. shipments to China will taper off after March 20, current marketing year sales would have dropped sharply in any event as relative prices would then favor a shift to South American origins. The Argentine Governments struggle with exchange rate policies has already stalled export trade, and it could take considerable time for any country to assemble the required import documentation for China. Despite the absence of an official Brazilian sanction of transgenic soybeans, buyers in China have also cancelled purchases from Brazil for April-May shipment. A zero-tolerance standard would apply to the traces of biotech soybeans that can be found in many Brazilian exports. The risk of having any unlabeled imports testing positive would be quite costly, because without a safety certificate they would be returned or destroyed. Thus, it would be practically impossible for Brazilian exports to get the required safety certificate from China if shipments are not identity-preserved. A bill that would lift a court-ordered ban on biotech crop production stalled in Brazils Congress last year, but a new attempt at passage is likely soon, which would permit exporters to make the proper applications. The expected delays caused USDA to reduce its forecast of Chinas 2001/02 soybean imports from 14.0 million tons to 13.5 million. Prospects for soybean meal imports were also cut to 200,000 tons. Simultaneously, a relatively steady soybean crushing demand is seen, which would trim domestic carryout stocks to 4.0 million tons. A provincial grain bureau is currently proceeding with auctions for soybeans made available from the State Grain Reserve. A tightening of domestic supplies is likely to terminate the recent surge of soybean meal exports by China (mostly to Japan), which are expected to total 250,000 tons this year. Domestic prices should rise and encourage more soybean planting next spring. Smooth Commencement of South American Soy Shipping Appears Doubtful This month, the Argentine Government accelerated its plans to eliminate exchange rate controls by announcing that it would allow the peso to float freely. Transfers of export earnings by multinational companies are still severely restricted, however. The action would end the dual exchange rate for exports that was fixed at 1.4 pesos to the dollar in January. An exchange rate differential for exporters (based on a half-euro and half-dollar rate) that was implemented last year was also abolished. The current exchange rate is around 2 pesos per dollar, which is a 50-percent devaluation since January 1. By itself, the devaluation should benefit agricultural exports in the long run. But commodity exchanges in Argentina have been virtually shut down since late December. Oilseed exports have ceased because of uncertainty about the repayment of value-added taxes (VAT) owed to agricultural exporters. Exporters of oilseeds and oilseed products are required to pay a 21-percent VAT. When the shipment is loaded, the government is legally obligated to refund a portion of the tax to the exporters, but they are still owed about $600 million. An additional $100 million from the special exchange rate program is also owed. The government recently agreed to settle the debts through a series of 19 monthly installments beginning in March. A resumption of agricultural exports is hoped to stabilize the pesos value, and the government is reportedly considering an eventual reduction in the VAT by half to further encourage them. Even so, the government has declared that all current dollar-denominated debts (including the delinquent value-added tax refunds) will be converted to pesos at a one-peso-per-dollar rate. This would force exporters to absorb more than $300 million in foreign exchange losses on the tax rebates. In addition, all dollar deposits in Argentine banks were converted at a 1.4-peso-per-dollar rate. Exporters and oilseed processors would pass on part of their huge losses to Argentine farmers through greater price discounts for their commodities, which would diminish the immediate advantages from the devaluation to them. When soybean harvesting begins in another 2 months, Argentine exports will likely remain difficult. In 2000/01, China accounted for two-thirds of Argentinas total soybean exports and nearly three-quarters of its exports between April and July. Argentine soybean exports for 2001/02 are forecast 400,000 tons lower this month to 8.35 million. Consequently, end of September stocks would accumulate to a record level near 8 million tons. Yet, ample current stocks of soybean oil are foreseen improving Argentine prospects for 2001/02 oil exports, which were forecast up to nearly 3.5 million tons. Brazils 2001/02 soybean exports were also forecast lower this month from 18.0 million to 17.65 million tons. A modest increase in the soybean oil export estimate to 1.52 million tons was made. The next release of the Oil Crops Outlook is scheduled at 4:00 p.m. ET Monday, March 11, 2002. The report may be accessed from ERS Soybean Briefing Room at http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/soybeansoilcrops/ or via http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/. Information Contacts: Mark Ash--Soybeans, minor oilseeds, oils (202) 694-5289 mash@ers.usda.gov Erik Dohlman--Peanuts (202) 694-5308 edohlman@ers.usda.gov Table 1--Soybeans: U.S. supply and disappearance ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Supply Disappearance ------------------------------ ------------------------------------ Year Seed, begin. Beg. Produc- Im- Total Crush Ex- feed, Total End. Sept. 1 stocks tion ports ports residual stocks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------- Million bushels--------------------------- 1999/00 348 2,654 4 3,006 1,578 973 165 2,716 290 2000/01 1/ 290 2,758 4 3,052 1,641 1,000 163 2,804 248 2001/02 2/ 248 2,891 5 3,143 1,680 1,020 173 2,873 270 2000/01 Sep-Nov 290.2 2,757.8 0.9 3,048.9 421.1 315.8 72.0 808.9 2,240.0 Dec-Feb 2,240.0 --- 0.8 2,240.8 417.9 339.4 79.5 836.9 1,403.9 Mar-May 1,403.9 --- 0.8 1,404.7 405.4 228.4 62.7 696.5 708.2 Jun-Aug 708.2 --- 1.1 709.2 397.0 116.1 -51.6 461.5 247.7 Total 2,757.8 3.6 3,051.5 1,641.5 999.7 162.7 2,803.8 2001/02 Sep-Nov 247.7 2,890.6 0.5 3,138.8 427.7 348.3 87.5 863.1 2,275.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Estimated. 2/ Forecast 3/ Trade data through October. Table 2--Soybean meal: U.S. supply and disappearance ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Supply Disappearance Year --------------------------------- ----------------------------------- begin. Beg. Produc- Im- Total Domestic Ex- Total End. Oct. 1 stocks tion ports ports stocks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ---------------------------1,000 short tons-------------------------- 1999/00 330 37,591 49 37,970 30,346 7,331 37,678 293 2000/01 1/ 293 39,386 51 39,730 31,711 7,636 39,347 383 2001/02 2/ 383 40,092 50 40,525 32,350 7,900 40,250 275 2000/01 October 292.9 3,573.9 2.5 3,869.3 2,925.8 625.9 3,551.9 317.4 November 317.4 3,432.8 2.2 3,752.3 2,805.0 606.0 3,408.5 343.8 December 343.8 3,399.4 3.0 3,746.2 2,763.6 582.8 3,322.5 423.7 January 423.7 3,524.2 6.2 3,954.1 2,799.4 820.6 3,620.0 334.0 February 334.0 3,085.2 4.5 3,423.8 2,346.0 751.9 3,097.9 325.8 March 325.8 3,412.0 4.9 3,742.7 2,502.2 931.3 3,433.5 309.2 April 309.2 3,151.5 4.5 3,465.2 2,485.8 666.0 3,151.9 313.4 May 313.4 3,180.4 5.8 3,499.6 2,638.6 574.0 3,212.6 287.0 June 287.0 3,091.1 6.6 3,384.7 2,522.0 521.3 3,043.3 341.4 July 341.4 3,256.2 2.8 3,600.4 2,780.0 482.3 3,262.3 338.1 August 338.1 3,203.1 6.1 3,547.3 2,720.6 552.7 3,273.3 274.0 September 274.0 3,076.3 2.1 3,352.3 2,421.5 547.5 2,968.9 383.4 Total 39,386.0 51.1 39,730.0 31,710.5 7,636.0 39,346.6 2001/02 October 383.4 3,538.7 7.0 3,929.1 2,917.8 705.2 3,616.2 306.1 November 306.1 3,541.1 5.7 3,852.8 2,845.3 699.6 3,544.9 307.9 December 307.9 3,645.2 NA 3,953.1 NA NA 3,560.3 392.7 Total to date 10,725.0 12.7 11,121.1 5,763.1 1,404.9 10,728.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Estimated. 2/ Forecast. Table 3--Soybean oil: U.S. supply and disappearance ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Supply Disappearance Year -------------------------------- ---------------------------------- begin. Beg. Produc- Im- Total Domestic Ex- Total End. Oct. 1 stocks tion ports ports stocks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------- Million pounds--------------------------- 1999/00 1,520 17,825 83 19,427 16,056 1,376 17,432 1,995 2000/01 1/ 1,995 18,433 73 20,502 16,218 1,406 17,624 2,877 2001/02 2/ 2,877 18,730 78 21,685 16,750 2,400 19,150 2,535 2000/01 October 1,995.3 1,672.7 6.7 3,674.7 1,570.0 43.9 1,613.9 2,060.8 November 2,060.8 1,590.8 5.5 3,657.1 1,374.4 115.2 1,489.6 2,167.5 December 2,167.5 1,579.0 5.8 3,752.2 1,192.6 261.6 1,454.2 2,298.0 January 2,298.0 1,642.8 6.3 3,947.1 1,437.0 130.4 1,567.4 2,379.7 February 2,379.7 1,436.0 5.4 3,821.0 1,155.5 191.6 1,347.1 2,474.0 March 2,474.0 1,602.8 9.1 4,085.8 1,439.4 142.4 1,581.9 2,504.0 April 2,504.0 1,485.5 7.3 3,996.7 1,385.2 105.8 1,490.9 2,505.8 May 2,505.8 1,489.0 9.5 4,004.3 1,297.2 51.0 1,348.1 2,656.1 June 2,656.1 1,449.2 4.7 4,110.0 1,223.4 109.9 1,333.3 2,776.7 July 2,776.7 1,526.0 4.7 4,307.5 1,322.6 89.4 1,412.0 2,895.5 August 2,895.5 1,506.5 5.0 4,407.0 1,440.8 96.3 1,537.1 2,869.9 September2,869.9 1,452.9 3.2 4,326.0 1,380.1 68.8 1,448.9 2,877.2 Total 18,433.3 72.9 20,501.6 16,218.1 1,406.3 17,624.4 2001/02 October 2,877.2 1,682.3 4.9 4,564.4 1,603.8 235.7 1,839.5 2,724.9 November 2,724.9 1,629.6 3.5 4,358.0 1,432.0 138.6 1,570.6 2,787.4 December 2,787.4 1,691.8 NA 4,479.3 NA NA 1,615.6 2,863.7 Total to date 5,003.8 8.4 7,889.3 3,035.7 374.3 5,025.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Estimated. 2/ Forecast. Table 4--Cottonseed: U.S. supply and disappearance ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Supply Disappearance -------------------------------- ------------------------------------ Year begin. Beg. Im- Produc- Total Crush Ex- Other Total End. Aug. 1 stocks ports tion ports stocks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------- 1,000 Short tons-------------------------- 1999/00 393 308 6,354 7,055 3,079 198 3,505 6,781 274 2000/01 1/ 274 374 6,436 7,084 2,674 235 3,751 6,660 424 2001/02 2/ 424 173 7,533 8,130 3,000 300 4,250 7,550 580 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Estimated. 2/ Forecast. Table 5--Cottonseed meal: U.S. supply and disappearance ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Supply Disappearance -------------------------------- ------------------------------------ Year begin. Beg. Im- Produc- Total Domestic Ex- Total End. Oct. 1 stocks ports tion ports stocks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------1,000 Short tons--------------------------- 1999/00 24 0 1,390 1,414 1,289 104 1,393 21 2000/01 1/ 21 0 1,291 1,312 1,119 154 1,272 40 2001/02 2/ 40 0 1,350 1,390 1,185 160 1,345 45 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Estimated. 2/ Forecast. Table 6--Cottonseed oil: U.S. supply and disappearance ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Supply Disappearance ----------------------------- -------------------------------- Year begin. Beg. Im- Produc- Total Domestic Ex- Total End. Oct. 1 stocks ports tion ports stocks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------------- Million pounds--------------------------- 1999/00 76 8 939 1,023 833 141 974 49 2000/01 1/ 49 0 818 867 644 131 775 92 2001/02 2/ 92 5 945 1,042 818 135 953 89 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Estimated. 2/ Forecast. Table 7--Peanuts: U.S. supply and disappearance ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Supply Disappearance ------------------------- ---------------------------------------- Year begin. Beg. Im- Produc- Total Dom. Crush Seed& Ex- Total End. Oct. 1 stocks ports tion Food resid. ports stocks ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ----------------------- Million pounds--------------------------- 1999/00 1,392 178 3,829 5,400 2,233 713 493 727 4,166 1,233 2000/01 1/ 1,233 204 3,266 4,703 2,179 548 341 519 3,588 1,116 2001/02 2/ 1,116 178 4,239 5,533 2,260 750 348 725 4,083 1,450 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Estimated. 2/ Forecast. Table 8--Oilseeds prices received by U.S. farmers ------------------------------------------------------ Marketing Soy- Cotton- Sun- Flax- year beans seed flowers Peanuts seed ------------------------------------------------------ $/bu. $/ton $/cwt Cents/lb $/bu. 1994/95 5.48 101.00 10.70 28.90 4.63 1995/96 6.72 106.00 11.50 29.30 5.19 1996/97 7.35 126.00 11.70 28.10 6.37 1997/98 6.47 121.00 11.60 28.30 5.81 1998/99 4.93 129.00 10.60 28.40 5.05 1999/00 4.63 89.00 7.53 25.40 3.79 2000/01 4.54 105.00 6.89 27.40 3.30 2000/01 September 4.59 93.00 6.31 28.60 3.10 October 4.45 104.00 5.76 27.70 3.22 November 4.55 108.00 6.20 26.10 3.39 December 4.78 109.00 6.49 27.30 3.45 January 4.68 111.00 6.92 31.40 3.42 February 4.46 117.00 7.29 NA 3.43 March 4.39 NA 7.46 NA 3.90 April 4.22 NA 7.67 NA 3.68 May 4.33 NA 7.99 NA 3.91 June 4.46 NA 8.40 NA 4.10 July 4.79 NA 8.74 NA 4.28 August 4.85 NA 9.48 NA 4.09 2001/02 September 4.53 85.00 8.64 24.90 4.10 October 4.09 85.00 8.19 22.80 4.21 November 4.16 91.00 9.08 21.10 4.36 December 4.20 91.00 9.85 19.70 4.67 January 1/ 4.27 94.00 9.87 17.60 4.65 ------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Preliminary. NA = Not available. Table 9 U.S. vegetable oil and fats prices --------------------------------------------------------------- Cotton- Sun- Marketing Soybean seed flower Peanut Corn Lard Edible year oil 2/ oil 3/ oil 4/ oil 5/ oil 6/ tallow --------------------------------------------------------------- Cents/lb. 1994/95 27.51 29.23 28.10 44.30 26.47 20.15 21.21 1995/96 24.70 26.53 25.40 40.30 25.24 21.70 21.56 1996/97 22.50 25.58 22.64 43.70 24.05 23.02 23.01 1997/98 25.80 28.85 27.00 49.00 28.94 19.46 20.69 1998/99 19.90 27.32 20.10 39.74 25.30 14.66 15.14 1999/00 15.60 21.52 16.68 35.39 17.81 13.64 13.21 2000/01 14.15 16.65 16.20 35.00 13.75 14.61 13.43 2000/01 October 13.50 18.16 14.40 34.63 10.52 13.04 11.98 November 13.37 17.83 14.25 35.50 10.37 12.06 10.88 December 13.12 17.25 14.54 36.40 10.54 12.14 13.59 January 12.53 16.24 14.44 37.25 10.25 13.57 14.61 February 12.38 15.20 14.52 37.00 11.06 11.92 11.82 March 13.90 15.53 15.76 35.90 11.91 11.07 10.97 April 13.53 14.03 15.14 34.00 13.76 12.09 12.17 May 13.53 14.53 15.25 33.00 14.84 11.84 11.48 June 14.21 13.27 16.41 33.00 15.94 13.38 13.17 July 16.49 16.78 18.50 33.00 17.28 18.05 16.99 August 17.08 17.18 19.58 33.00 18.73 24.11 18.21 September 15.46 15.78 17.82 34.00 17.30 22.00 15.33 2001/02 October 14.38 14.44 17.40 36.25 17.18 13.04 12.67 November 15.23 15.91 19.15 37.00 18.30 13.18 12.83 December 15.10 16.07 24.15 37.00 22.45 14.92 14.31 January 1/ 14.82 16.38 23.66 32.53 20.54 12.69 12.49 --------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Preliminary 2/ Decatur IL 3/ PBSY Greenwood MS 4/ Minneapolis MN 5/ Southeast mills 6/ Chicago Table 10 U.S. oilseed meal prices ------------------------------------------------------------ Soy- Cotton Sun- Marketing bean seed flower Peanut Canola Linseed year meal 2/ meal 3/ meal 4/ meal 5/ meal 6/ meal 4/ ------------------------------------------------------------ $/Short ton 1994/95 162.55 112.02 62.70 128.94 128.01 95.85 1995/96 235.90 190.74 123.75 202.70 177.22 159.00 1996/97 262.00 192.00 110.60 232.00 192.02 158.75 1997/98 185.30 144.00 84.20 209.60 131.15 117.54 1998/99 138.50 109.55 65.20 104.94 112.28 84.49 1999/00 167.62 127.43 75.00 108.15 117.07 103.42 2000/01 173.62 143.35 88.50 122.00 139.20 121.92 2000/01 October 171.52 150.00 83.00 118.00 122.58 110.00 November 179.95 141.88 85.00 118.00 132.30 113.75 December 195.65 160.83 88.75 118.00 142.34 121.25 January 183.17 184.00 106.00 142.50 140.53 140.00 February 166.08 148.75 110.00 120.00 132.90 130.00 March 156.32 138.13 98.75 118.00 132.01 121.88 April 158.48 140.00 86.25 110.75 140.25 116.25 May 165.14 137.50 78.00 112.50 144.00 116.80 June 172.60 126.88 80.00 NA 149.30 110.00 July 184.43 129.69 88.00 123.50 154.29 135.00 August 178.46 130.63 95.00 130.50 142.60 135.63 September 171.67 131.25 93.75 126.25 137.27 111.25 2001/02 October 165.45 131.25 85.00 115.00 142.85 114.00 November 166.10 128.10 85.00 111.25 142.44 122.50 December 154.20 134.20 85.00 100.00 129.48 124.40 January 1/ 158.01 133.13 83.00 102.50 135.34 123.00 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Preliminary 2/ Hi-pro Decatur 3/ 41% Memphis 4/ Minneapolis 5/ 50% Southeast mills 6/ 36% Pacific Northwest END_OF_FILE