Rice YEARBOOK -- TEXT                                         
December 11, 2007
December 2007, ERS-RCS-XXXX

               Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
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This TEXT is published by the Economic Research Service, U.S. 
Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831.  The summary 
was released on November 27, 2007.  The complete report will be 
available electronically in about a month.
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	Rice Yearbook, RCS-2007

	by Nathan Childs (694-5292) 

Reviewed by WAOB: November 27, 2007 at 9:00 a.m. 


Rice Situation and Outlook Yearbook.  Market and Trade Economics 
Division, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, 
November 2007, RCS-2007.

Contents

Summary…………………………………………………..………………………………..

U.S. Outlook for 2007/08………………….……………..…………………………….
   Average Field Highest on Record, Plantings Down 3 Percent 
  
  U.S. Rice Exports Are Projected To Increase 17 Percent in 2007/08

  U.S. 2007/08 Average Farm Price Projected Highest Since 1980/81

International Outlook for 2007/08………………………………………….
 Global Ending Stocks Projected To Drop, Despite a Record Crop    

 Global Rice Trade Is Projected To Be the Highest on Record in 2008


Report Coordinator
Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292

Economic Contributor
Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292


Managing Editor
Courtney Knauth (202) 694-5383

Layout, Text Design, and Graphics
Agnes Prentice (202) 694-5240

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board.  Summary released 
November 27, 2007.  The Rice Outlook and the text of the Rice 
Yearbook may be accessed electronically.  For details, call ERS 
Customer Service (202) 694-5050.

Rice Conversions
1 cwt = 100 pounds = 2.22 bushels = .0453 metric ton
1 metric ton = 2,204.6 pounds = 22.046 cwt = 48.992 bushels
1 cwt rough rice = .032 metric ton milled
1 metric ton milled = 31 cwt rough


SUMMARY

U.S. 2007/08 Season-Average Farm Price
Projected Highest Since 1980/81

The 2007/08 U.S. season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $10.75-$11.25 
per cwt, up from $9.74 a year earlier and the highest since $12.80 in 1980/81.  
This is 
the third consecutive year of a higher U.S. SAFP for rice. The mid-October 
reported 
cash price for rough-rice of $10.70 per cwt is the highest since September 1981.  
U.S. rough and milled prices are being pushed higher by strong prices for other 
grains, rising world rice prices, and the falling value of the dollar.

Price quotes for Thailand’s high-quality long-grain milled rice—a benchmark for 
global trading prices—are up more than 16 percent from a year earlier and 8 
percent 
higher than in August.  The recent price strength in global markets has largely 
been 
due to export bans invoked by Vietnam and India (non-basmati only), a stronger 
baht, expectations of declining global stocks, and higher overall commodity 
prices.  

For the week ending November 26, Thailand’s 100-percent grade B (FOB vessel, 
Bangkok) was quoted at $361 per ton, the highest since January 1997.  Thailand’s 
prices would likely be higher if the Government of Thailand had not recently 
released 
about a million tons of rice purchased in previous years under its intervention 
program.   

U.S. export prices have risen sharply since the start of the 2007/08 market 
year.  
Price quotes for U.S. long-grain milled rice are up 24 percent since the 
beginning of 
August.  Price quotes for California milled rice have also risen since early 
August, 
despite a larger California crop and expectations of a larger carryout in 
2007/08.  A 
major factor boosting California prices is the expectation of a very small 
Australian 
harvest in April-May 2008 that will sharply reduce Australia’s exports.  U.S. 
price 
quotes for both long- and medium-grain rice are the highest since early 1994.  


U.S. 2007/08 Average Field Yield
Projected at a Record 7,247 Pounds per Acre

The 2007/08 U.S. rough-rice crop is estimated at 197.9 million cwt, up 2 percent 
from 
a year ago, but still 15 percent below the 2004/05 record.  Medium/short-grain 
accounts for all of the production increase.  The long-grain crop is almost 3 
percent 
smaller than a year ago.  California and Louisiana account for most of the 
2007/08  
increase in U.S. rice production.   

This year’s larger rice crop is the result of a record yield.  At 7,247 pounds 
per acre, 
the 2007/08 average yield is almost 6 percent higher than a year ago.  Yields 
are 
higher in every reporting State except Texas, with record yields estimated for 
Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri.  In contrast, U.S. plantings 
declined 3 
percent to 2.75 million acres, a result of strong prices for competing crops and 
very 
high fuel and fertilizer prices.   Arkansas and Missouri account for the bulk of 
the area 
decline.

Total U.S. rice supplies in 2007/08 are projected to be up slightly from a year 
earlier, 
as the larger crop and record imports more than offset a smaller carryin.  At 
258.7 
million cwt, total supplies are 1.4 million cwt above last year.  Medium/short-
grain 
account for all of the supply increase.  Long-grain supplies are projected to 
decline 4 
percent.  

At 39.3 million cwt, beginning stocks in 2007/08 are 9 percent below a year 
earlier, 
with long-grain accounting for all of the decline.  Imports are projected at a 
record 
21.5 million cwt, up more than 4 percent from 2006/07, with both long- and 
medium/short-grain imports the highest on record.  Imports have more than 
doubled 
over the last 10 years, and are growing as a share of the domestic market.  
Thailand 
supplies more than 60 percent of all U.S. rice imports.


U.S. Exports Projected To Increase 17 Percent; 
Ending Stocks To Drop 31 Percent

Total exports of U.S. rice in 2007/08 are projected to increase 17 percent to 
107.0 
million cwt.  Expanded global trade, tight supplies in other exporting 
countries, and 
export bans by two major exporters are behind the stronger U.S. export forecast 
for 
2007/08.  

Milled rice shipments (including brown rice) are projected to account for most 
of the 
increase in U.S. exports.  Rough-rice exports are projected to increase about 6 
percent.  Both long- and medium/short-grain U.S. exports are projected to be 
larger 
in 2007/08, with long-grain accounting for the largest share of the increase.

Total domestic and residual use of rice is projected to decrease almost 2 
percent in 
2007/08 to 124.7 million cwt, still the second-highest on record.  The residual 
component includes unreported losses in processing, handling, and transporting, 
as 
well as any statistical errors.  The size of the residual can vary from year to 
year.  
Total rice use—domestic and residual use plus exports—in 2007/08 is projected at 
231.7 million cwt, up 6 percent from a year earlier.  

 U.S. ending stocks of all rice for 2007/08 are projected at 27.1 million cwt, 
down 31 
percent from a year ago.  The stocks-to-use ratio is calculated at 11.7 percent, 
down 
from 18.0 percent a year ago.  Both ending stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio 
are the 
lowest since 2003/04.  


Despite Record Global Production in 2007/08,
Global Stocks Are Projected To Be the Lowest Since 1983/84

World rice production is projected at a record 421.2 million tons (milled basis) 
in 
2007/08, up less than 1 percent from a year ago.  China accounts for the largest 
share of the 2007/08 global production increase.  In addition, Indonesia, 
Vietnam, 
Brazil, Thailand, Japan, Argentina, the United States, and Uruguay are projected 
to 
harvest larger crops in 2007/08.  In contrast, India, Australia, North Korea, 
South 
Korea, and Turkey are projected to harvest smaller crops.

This year’s larger global production is due to larger plantings; the average 
yield is 
unchanged from a year earlier.  Global yields have been nearly flat since late 
1990s, 
and growth rates achieved in the 1990s were much lower than those achieved in 
the 
1970s and 1980s.    

Despite record global production, global rice supplies are projected to increase 
less 
than 1 percent in 2007/08, to 498.4 million tons, the second consecutive year of 
fractional growth in global rice supplies.  Global supplies remain 9 percent 
below the 
2001/02 record of 546.6 million tons.

Global rice disappearance is projected at a record 424.2 million tons, an 
increase of 
more than 1 percent from a year earlier.  China, India, Indonesia, the 
Philippines, and 
Bangladesh account for most of the expected increase in global rice 
disappearance.  
Global ending stocks for 2007/08 are projected at 74.1 million tons, 4 percent 
below 
a year earlier and the smallest since 1983/84.  The global stocks-to-use ratio 
is 
calculated at 17.5 percent, the smallest since 1976/77.  Global stocks are down 
almost 50 percent since the 2000/01 record of 147.3 million tons.  China 
accounts for 
most of the decline in global ending stocks since 2000/01.  


Global Rice Trade in 2008 Projected 
To Be the Highest on Record 

Global rice trade in 2008 is projected at 29.6 million tons, up 3 percent from a 
year 
earlier and the highest on record.  South Asia, East Asia, the Middle East, Sub-
Saharan Africa, and Oceania are all projected to increase imports in 2008.  In 
contrast, Southeast Asia is projected to import less rice in 2008.  Imports by 
Latin 
America are projected to be virtually unchanged from 2007. 

By country, Iraq, Bangladesh, Australia, Afghanistan, Cuba, China, and the 
Philippines are all projected to increase imports by 100,000 tons or more in 
2008. 
The increases will partially be offset by weaker imports by Iran, Indonesia, 
Malaysia, 
Turkey, and Haiti.  Imports are projected to be unchanged in 2008 for Nigeria, 
Cote 
d’Ivoire, and Senegal, all major buyers in Sub-Saharan Africa. 

On the export side, Thailand, Vietnam, and China account for most of the 
expected 
increase in global exports in 2008.  In addition, Uruguay, Egypt, and the United 
States are expected to export more rice in 2008.  In contrast, India, Australia, 
and 
Guyana are projected to reduce exports in 2008, with Australia’s shipments the 
lowest since 1962.   Exports by Cambodia are projected to remain at the 2006 
near-
record high.  Argentina’s exports are projected to be unchanged in 2008 as well.
 
 


U.S. Outlook for 2007/08

Average Field Yield Highest on Record, Plantings Down 3 Percent   

Total U.S. rice supplies in 2007/08 are projected to be up slightly from a year 
earlier, 
as a larger crop and record imports more than offset a smaller carryin.  At 
258.7 
million cwt, total supplies are 1.4 million cwt above last year, but still 7 
percent below 
the 2005/06 record.  Despite smaller area, total rice production of 197.9 
million cwt is 
2 percent larger than a year earlier, a result of a record yield.  At 39.3 
million cwt, 
beginning stocks are 9 percent below a year earlier.  Imports are projected at a 
record 21.5 million cwt, up more than 4 percent from 2006/07.  Medium/short-
grain 
accounts for all of the 2007/08 supply increase.  Long-grain supplies are 
projected to 
decline 4 percent.  


U.S. 2007/08 Rice Production Estimated  
at 197.9 Million Cwt, up 2 Percent    

The 2007/08 (August-July) U.S. rough-rice crop is estimated at 197.9 million 
cwt, up 
2 percent from a year ago, but still 15 percent below the 2004/05 record.  This 
year’s 
larger crop is the result of a record yield.  At 7,247 pounds per acre, the 
2007/08 
average yield is almost 6 percent higher than a year ago.  In contrast, 
plantings 
declined 3 percent to 2.75 million acres.   

Medium/short-grain accounts for all of the 2007/08 production increase.  At 55.3 
million cwt, medium/short-grain production is up 16 percent from a year ago.  
The 
bulk of the U.S. medium/short-grain crop is grown in California.  In contrast, 
long-
grain production declined almost 3 percent to 142.6 million cwt.  Virtually all 
U.S. 
long-grain rice is grown in the South.

In 2007/08, rice acreage declined in all reporting States except Louisiana—where 
plantings increased—and Mississippi where plantings were unchanged from a year 
ago. This is the second consecutive year of declining U.S. rice acreage.   Very 
strong 
prices for competing crops, as well as another year of high fuel and fertilizer 
prices 
are behind this year’s decline in rice acreage.  In addition, tight seed 
supplies from 
the loss of 2 widely-planted varieties and potential risks of marketing the 2007 
long-
grain crop may have discouraged some southern producers from planting rice last 
spring.  Seed availability concerns and potential marketing risks resulted from 
the 
discovery of trace amounts of genetically enhanced material in certain 2006 
long-
grain varieties.

Arkansas and Missouri account for the bulk of the decline in U.S. rice acreage.  
Rice 
plantings in Arkansas decreased 5 percent to 1.33 million acres, the lowest 
since 
1996/97.  Missouri’s plantings are estimated at 180,000 acres, a 17-percent drop 
from a year earlier and the lowest since 2003/04.  Texas rice plantings dropped 
3 
percent to 146,000 acres, the lowest since the 1930s.  California plantings 
dropped 
fractionally to 523,000 acres, despite near-record-high prices for medium-grain 
rice, 
the bulk of California production.  In contrast, in Louisiana rice plantings 
increased 28 
percent to 378,000 acres.  Plantings in 2006/07 in Louisiana were partially 
constrained by saltwater intrusion caused by two severe hurricanes in 2005.  At 
190,000 acres, rice plantings in Mississippi were unchanged from a year ago.   


U.S. Average Field Yield Is Estimated
at a Record 7,247 Pounds per Acre

In early November, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) of the 
U.S. 
Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast an average field yield for 2007/08 of 
7,247 pounds per acre, up almost 6 percent from a year ago. Yields are higher in 
every reporting State except Texas, with record yields estimated for Arkansas, 
Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri.  This year, most growing regions 
experienced 
generally favorable weather during critical growing months.  

California’s rice yield increased 9 percent to 8,350 pounds per acre in 2007/08. 
In 
both 2005/06 and 2006/07, California experienced abnormally cool, wet springs 
that 
hindered yields.  Louisiana’s average yield increased 7 percent to a record 
6,250 
pounds per acre.  In Missouri, the average yield increased 6 percent to 6,800 
pounds 
per acre, equaling the 2004/05 record.  The Arkansas rice yield increased 5 
percent 
to a record 7,200 pounds per acre.  In Mississippi, average yields increased 5 
percent to a record 7,350 pounds per acre.  In contrast, the Texas yield dropped 
nearly 7 percent to 6,700 pounds per acre.  The Texas rice growing region 
experienced excessive rainfall in the spring.

California and Louisiana account for most of the 2007/08 U.S. production 
increase.  
At 43.4 million cwt, rice production in California is 8 percent larger than a 
year earlier, 
a result of a much higher yield.  Despite this year’s increase, the California 
crop is 14 
percent smaller than the 2004/05 record.  The Louisiana crop is estimated at 
23.3 
million cwt, up 16 percent from a year ago, but still 25 percent smaller than 
the 
2005/06 record.  Rice production in Mississippi is estimated at 13.9 million 
cwt, up 5 
percent from a year ago due to a higher yield.  

Rice production declined in the remaining rice-growing States.  The Missouri 
crop 
declined 12 percent to 12.1 million cwt, a result of smaller plantings.  The 
Texas rice 
crop of 9.8-million cwt is 9 percent smaller than a year ago, mostly due to a 
weaker 
yield.  This is the smallest rice crop in Texas since 1947.  In Arkansas, the 
largest 
U.S. rice-growing State, production dropped 0.5 million cwt to 95.4 million cwt, 
a 
result of smaller plantings.  This is the smallest rice crop in Arkansas since 
2000/01.
 


Total U.S. Rice Supplies in 2007/08 Are Projected 
at 258.7 Million Cwt, up Slightly from a Year ago

Total U.S. rice supplies in 2007/08 are projected at 258.7 million cwt, up less 
than 1 
percent from a year ago.  Despite this year’s increase, total supplies are still 
7 
percent below the 2005/06 record.  In 2007/08, a larger crop and record imports 
more 
than offset a smaller carryin.  By class, long-grain supplies are projected to 
decline 4 
percent to 186.2 million cwt; combined medium/short-grain supplies are projected 
to 
increase 13 percent to 71.8 million cwt.

Based on data from NASS in the August 2007 Rice Stocks, beginning stocks of all 
rice for 2007/08 are calculated at 39.3 million cwt, down almost 9 percent from 
a year 
earlier, with long-grain accounting for all of the decline. Beginning stocks of 
all rice 
were smaller in all reported States except Arkansas, where beginning stocks were 
up 
2 percent from a year earlier.  Texas and Louisiana accounted for most of the 
decline 
in beginning stocks.  By class, long-grain beginning stocks are estimated at 
28.5 
million cwt, a drop of 13 percent from a year earlier.  In contrast, combined 
medium/short-grain beginning stocks of 10.0 million cwt are 6 percent larger 
than a 
year earlier.

U.S. rice imports for 2007/08 are projected at a record 21.5 million cwt, up 
more than 
4 percent from a year earlier, with both long- and combined medium/short-grain 
imports projected to be the highest on record.  Long-grain imports are projected 
at 
15.0 million cwt, an increase of 5 percent from a year earlier.  Thailand is the 
largest 
supplier of rice to the United States, accounting for 75-80 percent of U.S. 
long-grain 
imports.  Jasmine rice—Thailand’s high-quality fragrant rice—accounts for nearly 
all 
of the long-grain rice imported by the United States from Thailand.  These 
imports 
increase almost every year.  India and Pakistan supply most of the remainder of 
U.S. 
long-grain imports, shipping mostly high-quality basmati rice.  Like the Thai 
jasmine 
rice, imports of basmati rice typically increase each year.  The United States 
does not 
currently grow aromatic varieties of the same quality as those produced in Asia.  

Combined medium/short-grain imports in 2007/08 are projected at a record 6.5 
million cwt, an increase of 3 percent from a year earlier.  Thailand currently 
ships 
60,000-70,000 tons (2.00-2.25 million cwt on a rough-rice basis) of specialty 
rice to 
the United States that is classified by the U.S. Census Bureau as medium- or 
short-
grain.  Nearly all the rest of U.S. medium/short-grain imports are purchases by 
Puerto 
Rico.  China supplies most of the rice imported by Puerto Rico, with Egypt also 
supply some.  Prior to 2000/01, Puerto Rico was largely a California market.  
Noncompetitive U.S. prices and high freight rates (largely due to the Jones 
Shipping 
Act) hinder U.S. suppliers in this market.  Italy supplies a few-thousand tons 
of 
Arborio rice to the United States each year.




U.S. Rice Exports Are Projected To Increase 17 Percent in 2007/08 

Total use of U.S. rice in 2007/08 is projected at 231.7 million cwt, up 6 
percent from a 
year ago.  Exports account for all of the year-to-year increase in total use.  
Total 
exports of U.S. rice in 2007/08 are projected at 107.0 million cwt, up 17 
percent from 
a year ago. Milled rice shipments account for the bulk of the projected increase 
in 
U.S. exports.  Both long and medium/short-grain exports are projected to 
increase in 
2007/08.  Total domestic and residual disappearance is projected at a near-
record 
124.6 million cwt, down slightly from a year earlier.  Ending stocks of all rice 
are 
projected at 27.1 million cwt, a decline of 31 percent from a year earlier.  
Long-grain 
accounts for all of the expected decline in U.S. ending stocks. 


Total Use of U.S. Rice in 2007/08 
Is Projected To Increase 6 Percent

Total rice use in 2007/08—domestic and residual use, plus exports—is projected 
at 
231.7 million cwt, up 6 percent from a year earlier, but still 3 percent below 
the 
2002/03 record.  Exports account for all of the expected increase in total use 
in 
2007/08.  Total exports of U.S. rice are projected to increase 17 percent to 
107.0 
million cwt, still 14 percent below the 2002/03 record.  Expanded global trade, 
tight 
supplies in other exporting countries, export bans recently invoked by two major 
exporters, and slightly larger U.S. supplies are behind the stronger export 
forecast for 
2007/08.  Milled-rice shipments (including brown rice) are projected to account 
for 
most of the increase in U.S. exports.  By class, both long- and medium/short-
grain 
U.S. exports are projected to be larger in 2007/08, with long-grain accounting 
for the 
largest share of the increase.

Milled-rice exports are projected at 73.0 million cwt, up 23 percent from a year 
earlier 
but 10 percent below 2005/06.  Expectations of larger shipments to the Middle 
East, 
Oceania, and the Philippines (all sold under the PL 480 Title I Program) account 
for 
the higher U.S. milled-rice export forecast.  Rough-rice exports are projected 
at 34.0 
million cwt, up 6 percent from a year ago.  Mexico and Central America account 
for 
the bulk of U.S. rough-rice exports, with the United States supplying almost all 
rice 
imported by these two markets.  None of the major Asian rice-exporting countries 
allow rough-rice exports, preferring to capture the value-added from milling the 
rice.

By class, long-grain exports are projected at 84.0 million cwt, up 16 percent 
from a 
year ago.  Expanded shipments to Mexico, Central America, the Middle East, the 
Philippines, and the Caribbean are behind the stronger long-grain export 
forecast.  
Current export bans by Vietnam and India (non-basmati rice only) will likely 
support 
stronger U.S. sales to some regions, primarily the Middle East, early in 2008.  
In 
addition, U.S. 2007/08 long-grain rice exports are boosted by a delayed fiscal 
year 
2007 Pl 480 Title I sale to the Philippines of 44,100 tons that was purchased in 
October 2007. The original tender was held in September, but resulted in a re-
tender.  

Also, some recovery in U.S. sales to the EU-27—once a major market for U.S. 
long-
grain rice—is expected.  In 2006/07, this 250,000-300,000-ton annual U.S. market 
dropped sharply due to the discovery of trace amounts of genetically enhanced 
rice 
in some U.S. supplies of long-grain rice.  Through late-November, U.S. sales to 
the 
EU-27 were slightly ahead of a year earlier.  

Medium/short-grain exports are projected at 23.0 million cwt, up 23 percent from 
a 
year earlier.  Expanded sales to Oceania—historically an Australian market—
account 
for much of the expected increase in U.S. exports.  Sales to South Korea—all 
part of 
South Korea’s World Trade Organization (WTO) commitments—and shipments to 
some smaller markets in the Eastern Mediterranean are like to be larger as well.  

Total domestic and residual use of rice is projected to decrease almost 2 
percent in 
2007/08 to 124.7 million cwt, still the second-highest on record.  Long-grain 
accounts 
for all of the expected decline.  At 89.0 million cwt, long-grain domestic 
disappearance is projected to be 3 percent below the year-earlier record.  In 
contrast, 
combined medium/short-grain domestic disappearance is projected to increase 
almost 3 percent to 35.7 million cwt.  The U.S. disappearance term includes a 
substantial residual component that is impossible to estimate and can vary 
substantially from year to year.  The residual term includes unreported losses 
in 
processing, marketing, and transportation, as well as any statistical errors in 
other 
components of U.S. supply and use tables.


U.S. 2007/08 Ending Stocks Are Projected
To Decline 31 Percent to 27.1 Million Cwt

U.S. ending stocks of all rice for 2007/08 are projected at 27.1 million cwt, 
down 31 
percent from a year ago.  A 6-percent increase in total use is projected to more 
than 
offset slightly larger total supplies.  The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is 
calculated at 
11.7 percent, down from 18.0 percent a year ago.  Both ending stocks and the 
stocks-to-use ratio are the lowest since 2003/04.  The ending stocks situation 
differs 
by class of rice.

Long-grain accounts for all of the decline in U.S. ending stocks in 2007/08.  
Long-
grain ending stocks are projected to decline 54 percent to 13.2 million cwt.  A 
6-
percent contraction in long-grain supplies, combined with a 5-percent increase 
in 
long-grain use, accounts for the substantial decline in long-grain ending 
stocks.  The 
long-grain stocks-to-use ratio is calculated at 7.6 percent, down from 17.3 
percent a 
year ago.  Both the long-grain ending stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio are the 
lowest since 2003/04.  

For medium/short-grain rice, ending stocks for 2007/08 are projected at 13.2 
million 
cwt, up 31 percent from a year ago and the highest since 2004/05.  A 13-percent 
increase in total supplies is expected to more than offset a 10-percent increase 
in 
medium/short-grain use.  The resulting medium/short-grain stocks-to-use ratio is 
22.4 
percent, up from 18.8 percent a year ago and the highest since 2003/04.   


U.S. 2007/08 Average Farm Price Projected Highest Since 1980/81 


The U.S. season-average farm price (SAFP) for 2007/08 is projected at $10.75-
$11.25 per cwt, up from $9.74 a year earlier and the highest since 1980/81. 
Expectations of a substantially higher U.S. SAFP in 2007/08 are largely due to 
very 
high prices for other grains and stronger global rice prices.  This is the third 
consecutive year of a higher U.S. SAFP for rice.  Price quotes for U.S. long 
grain 
rough rice have risen in every producing region since the start of the 2007/08 
market 
year in August.  Price quotes for California medium/short-grain rice continue to 
increase from already high levels in 2006/07.  Total U.S. food aid purchases 
(including a Title I sale) in fiscal 2007 are estimated at 136,400 tons, up from 
96,100 
tons a year earlier.  


U.S. 2007/08 Season-Average Farm Price
Is Projected To Be the Highest Since 1980/81

The 2007/08 U.S. season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected at $10.75-$11.25 
per cwt, up from $9.74 a year earlier and the highest since $12.80 in 1980/81.  
The 
higher U.S. SAFP in 2007/08 is primarily due to strong prices for other grains 
and 
higher global trading prices for rice.  This is the third consecutive year of a 
higher 
U.S. SAFP for rice. 

The mid-October reported cash price of $10.70 per cwt was up 40 cents from the 
September average and $1.05 higher than a year earlier.  The October mid-month 
price is the highest reported monthly cash price since September 1981.  Average 
U.S. monthly reported cash prices for rough rice have been higher than a year 
earlier 
since November 2005.  In addition, prices have increased each month since July.  

Price quotes for U.S. long-grain rough rice have risen in every producing region 
since 
the start of the 2007/08 market year on August 1.  Based on data from the weekly 
Creed Rice Market Report, average price quotes from mills for long-grain rough 
rice 
in the Delta—which produces the largest share of the U.S. long-grain crop—
increased from about $9.00 per cwt at the start of the 2007/08 market year to 
around 
$11.50 for the week ending November 27.  In Southwest Louisiana, long-grain 
rough 
rice prices were also quoted at $11.50 for the week ending November 27, up from 
$10.00 in early August.  In Texas, long-grain rough-rice prices were quoted 
around 
$11.70 per cwt for the week ending November 27, up from around $10.50 in early 
August.  For all three long-grain producing regions, these are the highest 
weekly 
price quotes reported by the Creed Rice Market Report since early 1994 when 
Japan 
began its emergency purchases due to a small harvest in 1993.

California medium-grain rough-rice prices for the week ending November 27 were 
quoted at $13.34 per cwt, up from about $12.00 in late July.  Like the southern 
long-
grain prices, these are the highest reported weekly prices for California 
medium-grain 
rough rice reported in the Creed Rice Market Report since early 1994.  
California 
prices are being supported by extremely tight supplies in Australia, a result of 
severe 
drought.  Australia had been a major competitor of California in the global 
medium/short-grain market.  However, Australia has had severe drought in 4 of 
the 
last 5 years and is currently exporting very little rice.  

In the Delta, where most of the southern medium-grain crop is produced, price 
quotes for medium-grain rough rice were reported at $11.33 per cwt for the week 
ending November 27, up about 20 cents from early August and the highest ever 
reported by Creed.  The high southern medium-grain prices are primarily due to 
strong California prices and only a modest increase in southern medium-grain 
acreage in 2007/08. 

California medium-grain prices are typically higher than southern medium-grain 
prices.  Most southern medium-grain rice is used in processed products in the 
United 
States.  Some processors will substitute southern medium-grain for California 
medium-grain if the price difference is wide enough.  On occasion, some Middle 
Eastern markets have taken southern medium-grain rice if California prices are 
too 
high.  

U.S. producers are eligible for marketing loan benefits when foreign prices 
(represented by USDA’s weekly adjusted world price) fall below the loan rate for 
rough rice.  Loan rates vary by class of rice—long, medium, and short-grain—with 
an 
all-rice average loan rate fixed at $6.50 per cwt.  The adjusted world price is 
also 
reported by class.  The payment rate by class is the difference between the 
adjusted 
world price (reported by USDA every Wednesday morning) and the loan rate.  Since 
mid-May 2006, the adjusted world price for long-grain rice has remained above 
the 
loan rate each week, making U.S. long-grain producers ineligible for marketing 
loan 
benefits.  The adjusted world price has exceeded the loan rate for medium- and 
short-grain rice since mid-January 2006.  


The U.S. Donated 92,000-96,000 Tons 
of Rice in FY 2006 and FY 2007

Total U.S. food aid purchases of rice for donation in fiscal 2007 (October 2006 
to 
September 2007) are estimated at 92,000 tons, down about 4,000 tons from a year 
earlier.  In addition, U.S. exporters sold 44,100 tons of rice under Title I of 
the PL 480 
Program to the Philippines in October 2007 that was authorized in fiscal 2007.  
Unlike 
donations, Title I provides for the sales of U.S. agriculture commodities on 
concessional credit terms to governments and private entities in developing 
countries.  In both the text and tables of this report, U.S. food aid donations 
are 
assigned appropriate October-September fiscal years based on the month in which 
invitations for commodity offers are announced.  Shipment dates do not 
necessarily 
fall within the same fiscal year in which the rice was purchased.  

Food aid purchases (including Title I concessional sales) accounted for 4.1 
percent of 
total U.S. rice exports in fiscal 2007, up from 2.4 percent a year earlier.  In 
fiscal 
2006, total U.S. food aid purchases for donation totaled around 96,000 tons, 
down 36 
percent from a year earlier. There were no Title I concessional sales for rice 
in fiscal 
2006.

U.S. rice is shipped under four food aid programs:  PL 480 (Title I and Title 
II), 
Section 416(b) surplus removal, Food for Progress, and Food for Education.  In 
fiscal 
2007, there was only one sale under PL 480 Title I, a 44,100-ton sale to the 
Philippines.  The sale did not occur until October 2007 due to a re-tendering of 
the 
original September 2007 tender.  

Total purchases under PL 480 Title II, or food donations, totaled 53,000 tons in 
fiscal 
2007, almost unchanged from fiscal 2006.  In addition, almost 11,000 tons of 
rice was 
purchased in fiscal 2007 under the Food for Progress program, down from about 
28,000 tons in fiscal 2006.  Purchases under the Food for Education program 
totaled 
about 28,500 tons in fiscal 2007, up from almost 15,500 tons a year earlier.  
There 
have been no Section 416(b) allocations or purchases since fiscal 2002.


International Outlook for 2007/08

Global Ending Stocks Projected To Drop, Despite a Record Crop    

Global rice production is projected to increase less than 1 percent in 2007/08 
to a 
record 421.2 million tons, a result of larger planted area.  China, Indonesia, 
Vietnam, 
and Brazil account for the bulk of the projected increase in 2007/08 production.  
Total 
rice supplies in 2007/08 (carryin plus production) are forecast at 498.4 million 
tons, 
up less than 1 percent from a year ago.  Despite the increase, total supplies 
are 9 
percent below the 2001/02 record.  Global rice disappearance is projected at a 
record 421.2 million tons, an increase of almost 1 percent from a year earlier.  
China, 
India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Bangladesh account for most of the 
expected 
increase in global rice disappearance.  Global ending stocks for 2007/08 are 
projected at 74.1 million tons, 4 percent below a year earlier and the smallest 
since 
1983/84.  Thailand, China, Indonesia, the Philippines, and the United States 
account 
for most of the expected decline in ending stocks.  Through November 27, global 
trading prices were up 16 percent from a year earlier, the highest since January 
1997.  The U.S. price difference over comparable grades of Thailand’s rice was 
almost $140 per ton for the week ending November 27, up from $71 at the start of 
the 
2007/08 market year on August 1.   
 

Larger Area Boosts Global Production to Highest on Record;
Average Yield Remains Flat 

World rice production is projected at a record 421.2 million tons (milled basis) 
in 
2007/08, up less than 1 percent from a year ago.  Global production was 
unchanged 
from a year earlier in 2006/07.  China accounts for the largest share of the 
2007/08 
global production increase.  Indonesia, Vietnam, Brazil, Thailand, Japan, 
Argentina, 
the United States, and Uruguay are projected to harvest larger crops in 2007/08 
as 
well.  In contrast, India, Australia, North Korea, South Korea, and Turkey are 
projected to harvest smaller crops in 2007/08.

Despite record global production and little change in carryin, global rice 
supplies are 
projected to increase less than 1 percent in 2007/08 to 498.4 million tons, the 
second 
consecutive year of fractional growth in global rice supplies.  In addition, 
global 
supplies remain 9 percent below the 2001/02 record of 546.6 million tons.

Global rice area is projected at 153.7 million hectares, up 0.8 million from a 
year 
earlier, but still 1.6 million hectares below the 1999/2000 record.  Area in 
2007/08 is 
projected to be the second highest on record.  In 2007/08, larger plantings in 
China, 
Indonesia, Nigeria, Cambodia, Thailand, and Uruguay are projected to more than 
offset smaller plantings in the United States, Australia, Japan, Pakistan, and 
Sri 
Lanka.  At 4.1 tons per hectare, the average global rough-rice yield is 
unchanged 
from 2006/07 and 2005/06.  In fact, global yields have been nearly flat since 
the late 
1990s, and growth rates achieved in the 1990s were much lower than those in the 
1970s and 1980s.    


China Accounts for the Bulk of the 
2007/08 Projected Global Production Increase

China, the world’s largest rice-producing country, accounts for the bulk of the 
2007/08 global production increase, with rice production projected at 129.5 
million 
tons (milled basis), up more than 1 percent from a year ago. Despite this year’s 
increase, China’s production remains well below the record 140.5 million tons 
produced in 1997/98.   The larger crop is primarily due to expanded area; the 
yield is 
projected unchanged from a year earlier.  China’s rice yields have been nearly 
flat for 
the past decade.  

Among the top six exporters—Thailand, Vietnam, the United States, India, 
Pakistan, 
and China—all except India are projected to produce larger crops in 2007/08.  
Thailand—the world’s largest rice-exporting country—is projected to increase 
production less than 1 percent to a record 18.4 million tons due to larger 
plantings.  
The average yield is unchanged.  Vietnam—the second-largest rice exporting 
country—is also expected to achieve record production in 2007/8.  At 23.3 
million 
tons, Vietnam’s 2007/08 production is almost 2 percent larger than a year 
earlier, 
primarily due to a record average yield. 

Pakistan’s 2007/08 crop is forecast at 5.3 million tons, up fractionally from a 
year 
earlier, a result of a higher yield.  Plantings are actually down.  Despite this 
year’s 
increase, Pakistan’s crop is 4 percent smaller than the 2005/06 record. The U.S. 
2007/08 crop is estimated at 6.3 million tons, up more than1 percent from a year 
ago, 
a result of a record yield.  U.S. plantings were actually down 3 percent in 
20007/08.  
In contrast,  India is projected to harvest 92.0 million tons of rice in 
2007/08, only 
fractionally below a year earlier, a result of a slightly lower yield.  The 
southern and 
eastern rice growing regions of India received excessive rain this year.  

Among the smaller exporters, Argentina, Uruguay, Burma, and Cambodia are 
projected to harvest larger crops in 2007/08.  Little change in production is 
projected 
for the EU-27, Guyana, and Egypt.  In contrast, Australia is projected to 
harvest just 
36,000 tons of rice in 2007/08, the smallest crop in more than 50 years.  Both 
area 
and yield are down from a year ago, a result of severe drought.  Australia is 
projected 
to export very little rice in 2008. 

Several major importers are projected to harvest larger crops in 2007/08.  
Brazil, 
Indonesia, Nigeria, Japan, and Iran are all projected to increase production by 
at 
least 2 percent in 2007/08.  Indonesia—the world’s third-largest rice-growing 
country—is projected to harvest 34.0 million tons in 2007/08, up 0.7 million 
from a 
year ago, a result of expanded area.  Indonesia’s production remains below the 
2003/04 record of 35.0 million tons.  Brazil, the largest rice producer outside 
Asia, is 
expected to harvest nearly 8.0 million tons of rice in 2007/08, up almost 0.3 
million 
from a year ago, mostly due to a higher yield.  Both Nigeria and Iran have 
harvested 
record crops for several consecutive years.  Both governments are trying to 
reduce 
dependence on imports.

Other importers are projected to harvest smaller crops in 2007/08.  Excessive 
rainfall 
reduced rice production in both North and South Korea this year.  Turkey is 
expected 
to harvest 360,000 tons of rice in 2007/08, about 11 percent less than a year 
ago, a 
result of slightly smaller area and a much lower yield.  Parts of Turkey 
experienced 
drought this year.  The Philippines, one of the world’s largest rice importing 
countries, 
is projected to harvest 10.0 million tons in 2007/08, just fractionally below 
the year-
earlier record.  Bangladesh’s production is projected at 29.0 million tons in 
2007/08, 
unchanged from the earlier record.  Since the November forecasts were released, 
Bangladesh has received excessive rains and experienced severe flooding due to 
powerful cyclones.  The production forecast for Bangladesh will be re-evaluated 
in 
December.


Global Ending Stocks in 2007/08 Are Projected 
To Be the Smallest Since 1983/84

World rice domestic disappearance—consumption plus a residual component that 
represents unaccounted losses and any statistical errors—is projected at a 
record 
424.2 million tons in 2007/08, up more than 1 percent from a year ago.  China 
and 
India account for the largest share of the projected increase in domestic 
disappearance in 2007/98.  In addition, domestic disappearance is projected to 
be 
higher in Indonesia, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Burma, Nigeria, Iran, and 
Egypt.  In 
contrast, domestic disappearance of rice is projected to decline in Japan, South 
Korea, and Taiwan—a long-term trend in all three countries, a result of income-
driven 
diet diversification.  

With domestic disappearance exceeding production in 2007/08 by 3.1 million tons, 
global rice-ending stocks are projected to drop 4 percent to 74.1 million tons, 
the 
smallest since 1983/84.  China, Indonesia, and United States account for the 
largest 
share of the projected decline in global ending stocks.  Ending stocks are also 
projected to decline in India, the Philippines, and Thailand.  

The global stocks-to-use ratio is calculated at 17.5 percent, down from 18.5 
percent a 
year earlier and the smallest since 1976/77.  Global stocks are down almost 50 
percent since the 2000/01 record of 147.3 million tons.  China accounts for most 
of 
the decline in global ending stocks since 2000/01.  China’s ending stocks have 
declined from an estimated record 97.4 million tons in 1999/2000, to 35.6 
million 
forecast in 20007/08.  Much of this decline was due to a government policy 
designed 
to reduce stocks from excessive levels. USDA’s stock estimates for China include 
only that portion of total rice supplies likely to enter commercial channels.  
Components include rice held by the government, inventories in the commercial 
sector, and a portion of the grain that China’s farmers store for their own use.  


International Price Quotes for High-Quality 
Long-Grain Milled Rice Are Up 16 Percent from a Year Earlier 

For the week ending November 27, global price quotes for high-quality long-grain 
milled rice were up more than 16 percent from a year earlier.  Global prices 
have 
been rising for about 6 years, mostly due to the decline in global rice stocks 
and 
stronger demand.  The recent price strength has largely been due to export bans 
invoked this fall by Vietnam and India (non-basmati only), a stronger baht, and 
higher 
overall commodity prices.  

For the week ending November 27, Thailand’s 100-percent grade B (FOB vessel, 
Bangkok) was quoted at $361 per ton, up 8 percent from late July.  Thailand’s 
prices 
would likely be higher if the government had not recently released about a 
million 
tons of rice purchased under its intervention program, implemented for the 
2004/05-
2006/07 crops.  Despite the release of intervention stocks, Thailand’s prices 
are the 
highest since January 1997, about 6 months prior to the devaluation of the Thai 
currency and the beginning of the Asian financial Crisis. 

In mid-September, the Government of Vietnam announced a ban on new sales of 
rice because exporters were overcommitted.  Vietnam is expected to begin making 
new sales when the harvest of its main winter-spring crop begins in March.  
Similarly, 
India announced a minimum export price for rice, which effectively eliminates 
virtually 
all exports except for high-quality basmati rice.  India is expected to resume 
exports 
of non-basmati rice in the first half of 2008.  The ban on rice was invoked to 
ensure 
adequate rice availability in the domestic market and to rebuild stocks.  

U.S. export prices have risen sharply since the start of the 2007/08 market 
year, 
primarily due to high prices for other grains and higher global rice prices.  
Price 
quotes for U.S. long-grain milled rice—No. 2, 4-percent brokens, (FAS vessel, 
U.S. 
Gulf port)—were reported at $485 per ton for the week ending November 27, up 24 
percent since the beginning of August.  These are the highest price quotes for 
U.S. 
long-grain rice since early 1994, when Japan made its substantial emergency 
imports 
due to a very weak 1993 harvest.   After increasing the U.S. “free alongside 
vessel 
(FAS)” price to reflect an FOB price, the U.S. price difference over comparable 
grades of Thailand’s rice was $139 per ton for the week ending November 27, up 
from about $65 at the start of August.  The current difference is 75 percent 
larger 
than the 1998-2007 average.    

Price quotes for California milled rice continue to increase, despite a larger 
California 
crop and expectation of a larger carryout in 2007/08.  A major factor boosting 
California prices is the expectation of a very small Australian harvest in April 
and May 
2008 that will sharply reduce Australia’s exports.  In fact, Australia is 
projected to be 
a net importer of rice in 2008.  Australia has historically been a major 
competitor of 
the United States in the global medium/short-grain market, supplying most of the 
rice 
purchased by Oceania and accounting for a significant share of the Northeast 
Asian 
WTO purchases.  For the week ending November 27, export prices for No. 1, 4-
percent brokens California medium-grain milled rice (sacked, FOB vessel, 
Oakland) 
were quoted at $584 per ton, up 10 percent from the beginning of August and the 
highest since the spring of 1994 when Japan made its emergency purchases.  


Global Rice Trade Is Projected To Be the Highest on Record in 2008

Global rice trade in 2008 is projected at 29.6 million tons, up 3 percent from a 
year 
earlier and the highest on record. Asia, the Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, 
and 
Oceania are all projected to increase imports in 2008.  Iraq, Bangladesh, 
Australia, 
Afghanistan, Cuba, China, and the Philippines are all projected to increase 
imports 
by 100,000 tons or more in 2008. The increases will be partially offset by 
weaker 
imports by Iran, Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, and Haiti.  On the export side, 
Thailand, 
Vietnam, and China account for most of the expected increase in global exports.  
In 
contrast, India and Australia are projected to reduce exports in 2008.      


Asia, Middle East, Oceania, and Sub-Saharan Africa
Are Projected To Increase Imports in 2008

By region, South Asia accounts for the largest share of the 0.9 million-ton 
increase in 
global imports in 2008.  Imports by South Asia are projected at nearly 1.2 
million tons 
in 2008, up 28 percent from a year earlier.  Bangladesh, the largest importer in 
the 
region, is projected to increase imports 150,000 tons to 800,000 tons, a result 
of tight 
supplies and production concerns.  The 2007/08 the Aus rice crop (planted in 
March 
and April) was affected by floods during the harvesting season, while the next 
crop—
the Aman crop—was affected by repeated floods during planting in July and 
August.  
Bangladesh’s third crop—its high-yielding Boro crop—is not planted until 
December-
January.  In addition, Afghanistan is projected to increase imports 100,000 tons 
to 
250,000 tons due to declining supplies. 

In East Asia, imports are projected to increase 215,000 tons to 2.55 million 
tons.  
China’s imports are projected to increase 100,000 tons to 700,000, with 
Thailand’s 
jasmine rice accounting for most of the increase.  Japan’s imports are projected 
at 
700,000 tons, up 50,000 from 2007, a result of the timing of Japan’s WTO 
imports. 
Taiwan’s imports are projected to increase 65,000 tons to 166,000, also based on 
the 
timing of its WTO purchases.  South Korea’s imports are forecast at 265,000 tons 
in 
2008, unchanged from this year.  All imports by Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan 
are 
purchased under WTO commitments.  North Korea’s rice imports in 2008 are 
projected at 400,000 tons, unchanged from 2007.  All of North Korea’s rice 
imports 
are donations.

Southeast Asia is second only to Sub-Saharan Africa as a rice-importing region.  
In 
2008, Southeast Asia is projected to import 5.3 million tons of rice, down 
300,000 
from this year.  Indonesia accounts for most of the decline—at 1.6 million tons, 
Indonesia’s imports are 300,000 tons below this year.  Malaysia’s imports are 
projected to drop 100,000 tons to 700,000 in 2008.  In contrast, the Philippines 
are 
projected to increase imports 100,000 tons to 1.9 million due to rising demand 
and a 
slightly smaller crop.  

Sub-Saharan Africa, the largest rice-importing region in the world, is projected 
to 
import 7.64 million tons in 2008, up less than 2 percent from a year earlier.  
Nigeria’s 
imports are projected to remain at 1.7 million tons, South Africa’s to increase 
50,000 
tons to a near-record 950,000, Senegal’s to remain at 800,000 tons, Cote 
D’Ivoire’s 
to remain at 750,000 tons, and Ghana’s to remain at 450,000 tons.  These are the 
top buyers in the region.  Record production in the region and high global 
trading 
prices are behind the small increase in rice imports projected for Sub-Saharan 
Africa.

The Middle East is typically the third-largest global market for rice.  The 
Middle East 
is projected to increase imports 140,000 tons to 4.3 million in 2008.  Iraq’s 
imports 
are projected to increase 400,000 tons to 1.1 million, partly due to slow buying 
in 
2007.  Saudi Arabia is projected to import 1.15 million tons of rice in 2008, up 
more 
than 50,000 tons from 2007.  Saudi Arabia produces no rice.  In contrast, Iran 
is 
projected to reduce imports 300,000 tons to 900,000, partly due to record 
production 
and adequate supplies.  Despite a smaller crop, Turkey is projected to reduce 
exports 50,000 tons to 200,000 tons, also a result of adequate supplies.  

Rice imports by Latin America (South America, Central America, the Caribbean, 
and 
Mexico) are projected nearly flat in 2008 at 3.55 million tons.  Both South and 
Central 
America are projected to import less rice in 2008.  At 800,000 tons, Brazil is 
the 
largest buyer in the region.  Brazil’s rice imports are unchanged from 2007.  
Cuba is 
projected to boost imports 100,000 tons to 700,000 tons in 2008, in the face of 
rising 
consumption and stagnant production.  Cuba accounts for virtually all of the 
projected 
import expansion in the Caribbean.  In contrast, Haiti’s imports are projected 
to 
decline 50,000 tons to 300,000 tons, a result of higher trading prices and 
adequate 
supplies.  Mexico’s exports are projected to continue a long-term rising trend, 
increasing 25,000 tons to a record 625,000 tons.  Imports account for a growing 
share of Mexico’s domestic disappearance.  

EU-27 imports are projected at 1.1 million tons in 2008, unchanged from a year 
earlier.  Production and consumption are virtually unchanged as well.  Oceania 
is 
projected to increase imports 165,000 tons to a record 425,000 tons, with 
Australia 
accounting for almost all of the increase.  Australia is projected to import a 
record 
275,000 tons of rice in 2008, based on expectations of a very small harvest.  
The 
countries of the former Soviet Union are expected to increase imports 80,000 
tons to 
436,000 tons, with Russia accounting for nearly all of the increase, the result 
of a 
tightening supply situation.  Finally, U.S. 2008 rice imports are projected at a 
record 
700,000 tons, up 25,000 tons from a year earlier, mostly due to increasing 
demand 
for Thailand’s jasmine rice.


Thailand, Vietnam, China, and Pakistan
Are Projected To Export More Rice in 2008 

Among the top six rice exporting countries—Thailand, Vietnam, India, the United 
States, Pakistan, and China—only India is projected to export less rice in 2008 
than a 
year earlier.  The other five are all projected to boost exports in 2008.  

Thailand—the world's largest rice-exporting country—is projected to export 9.0 
million tons of rice in 2008, up 500,000 from this year.  Despite the increase, 
Thailand’s exports would still be more than 1.0 million tons below its 2004 
record.  
Thailand exports high-, medium-, and low-quality regular milled white rice, 
high-
quality parboiled rice, and its premium jasmine rice.  Thailand is also an 
exporter of 
glutinous rice, a specialty rice popular in specific markets, mostly in Asia.   

Vietnam is the world's second-largest rice exporter and is projected to export 
5.0 
million tons in 2008, up 400,000 tons from this year, but still slightly below 
its 2005 
record of 5.2 million tons.  Vietnam almost exclusively exports long-grain 
milled rice, 
mostly in the medium- and low-quality categories, and is a big supplier to 
Southeast 
Asia and Cuba.  However, Vietnam is working on improving the quality of its rice 
exports and has increased shipments of its high-quality double-water-polished 5-
percent brokens to higher income buyers.

The United States, once the world’s largest rice exporting country, currently 
ranks 
number four.  In 2008, the United States is projected to export 3.4 million tons 
of rice, 
up 100,000 tons from a year earlier, but still below the 2005 record of nearly 
3.9 
million tons.  The United States ships long-, medium-, and short-grain rice into 
global 
markets, with long-grain accounting for more than 75 percent of U.S. shipments.  
Almost one-third of U.S. exports are shipped as rough (or unmilled) rice.  The 
United 
States is the only major exporter that allows rough-rice exports.  The U.S. also 
ships 
parboiled rice and brown rice (rice with the hull removed, but the bran layer 
remaining).

Pakistan is projected to export 3.2 million tons of rice in 2008, up 200,000 
from 2007, 
but still below the 2006 record of 3.6 million.  Pakistan has increased 
production and 
exports in recent years.  Pakistan is the only major Asian country where rice is 
not 
the staple of the diet for most citizens.  This allows Pakistan to export more 
than half 
its crop annually.  Pakistan mostly exports low-quality long-grain milled rice 
(described as coarse rice due to its texture) to low-income markets, mostly in 
East 
Africa.  Pakistan also exports smaller quantities of its premium basmati rice, 
with the 
EU-27 a major buyer.  

China is projected to increase exports 300,000 tons in 2008 to 1.6 million, a 
result of 
adequate supplies, a drought in Australia, and the impact in early 2008 of 
recent 
export bans imposed by Vietnam and India.  Despite the expected increase, 
China’s 
exports are well below levels shipped before 2004.  China’s exports decreased in 
2004 and 2005 due to declining supplies.  China reversed its grain policies in 
2004 to 
encourage larger rice plantings, and the program was successful.  Exports have 
increased each year since 2006.  China exports both high-quality medium/short 
rice—mostly to Japan and South Korea—and low-quality long-grain rice to Sub-
Saharan Africa and some low-income Asian markets.  Recently, China has shipped 
japonica rice to markets in Oceania previously supplied by Australia.     

In contrast to these exporters, India is projected to reduce exports 600,000 
tons in 
2008 to 3.4 million.  Much of the reduction is due to the ban announced on 
October 
9, on exports of rice priced less than $425 per ton (essentially allowing only 
basmati 
exports).  The ban was invoked to ensure adequate supplies of rice for the 
domestic 
market and to rebuild stocks.  India is expected to resume exports early in 
2008.  
India exports a premium-priced basmati rice to higher income countries, high-
quality 
parboiled rice to middle-income countries, and low-quality, non-aromatic long-
grain 
rice (described as coarse rice) to developing countries. 

Among the smaller exporters, Egypt is projected to export a record 1.1 million 
tons in 
2008, up 100,000 from a year earlier.  Egypt has likely reached a limit on its 
exports, 
as rice area and yield are already the highest on record, with Egypt’s yields 
the 
highest in the world.  Egypt has a large and growing population to feed.  
Irrigation 
water for rice is fully subsidized by the government of Egypt.  Egypt exports 
almost 
exclusively high-quality medium/short-grain rice.

Australia, once a major exporter of medium/short-grain rice, is projected to 
ship just 
40,000 tons in 2008, down from 200,000 in 2007 and the smallest since 1962.  
Australia exported more than 500,000 tons a year during much of the 1990s.  
Severe 
drought during 4 of the last 5 years has cut Australia’s export potential.

Uruguay is projected to export a near-record 800,000 tons of rice in 2008, up 
175,000 tons from this year, a result of record supplies and stronger demand 
from 
Brazil, Uruguay’s major buyer.  Argentina’s exports are projected to remain at 
500,000 tons in 2008.  Like Uruguay, Argentina has large supplies and is 
dependent 
on Brazil for much of its business. Both countries export the bulk of their rice 
crop 
and have the potential to expand area if net returns are sufficient.  Guyana’s 
exports 
are projected at 180,000 tons, down 50,000 from 2007, mostly due to a lack of 
price 
competitiveness in global markets.  The EU-27 and the Caribbean are the top 
markets for Guyana’s rice.

In Asia, Cambodia is projected to export 450,000 tons, unchanged from the 2007.  
These are the largest exports for Cambodia since the early 1960s.  Cambodia has 
boosted production since 2005/06 after decades of decline, stagnation, and 
lackluster growth.  Burma’s exports are projected at a paltry 50,000 tons, up 
just 
10,000 from this year.  Until the mid-1960s, Burma typically exported more than 
a 
million tons of rice per year.  The current policy in Burma does not support 
significant 
rice exports.  Japan is projected to export 200,000 tons of rice in 2008, all as 
food aid 
and unchanged from this year.  South Korea is projected to donate 150,000 tons 
of 
rice in 2008, mostly to North Korea, fractionally below this year.  Neither 
Japan nor 
South Korea are price competitive in the global rice markets.  

Finally, the EU-27 is projected to export 150,000 tons of rice in 2008, 
virtually 
unchanged from recent years.  Except for the high-quality Italian Arboria rice, 
the EU-
27 is not price-competitive in most commercial markets.  Most of the EU-27’s 
rice 
exports are donations, shipped to former colonies, or are subsidized.

2007 Rice Yearbook                                                                                   
Board Copy


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