RICE OUTLOOK May 12, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is published monthly (except January) by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. RCS--0595. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- NEAR TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: U.S. farm prices for rice are forecast steady through the remainder of the 1994/95 marketing year (see tables 2, 3, and 5). The U.S. season average farm price (SAFP) in 1994/95 is expected to range from $6.60 to $6.80 per cwt, compared with 1993/94's $7.98. Farm prices must average $6.76 for the remainder of the crop year for the SAFP to equal the midpoint ($6.70) of the projected range. Through the first 9 months, the U.S. monthly farm price has averaged $6.68 per cwt. The 1995/96 season average farm price is projected to range from $6.25 to $7.75 per cwt. The season average prices will likely stay firm compared to 1994/95. However, with exports accounting for 43 percent of total disappearance, global rice production and consumption will continue to play an important role for U.S. farm prices. Internationally traded rice prices are projected to remain strong into the summer, supported by continued large demand from China and Indonesia. By late June, the international market will begin to focus on the progress of the Asian monsoons (occurring during June-September) and the 1995 crop prospects in the major rice producing countries of Asia. U.S. long-grain export prices rose slightly in early May due to the outlook for tighter U.S. long-grain supplies. U.S. f.o.b., No. 2, 4-percent broken (high-quality long-grain) offer quotes out of Houston climbed to $309 per ton in May, compared with a steady $298 per ton for the previous 6 months. Similar type and quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B) f.o.b. offer quotes out of Bangkok have risen steadily from last June's low of $232, reaching $293 in April 1995. INTERNATIONAL SITUATION AND OUTLOOK Continued strong demand from Indonesia and China has prevented any significant decline in international prices since November, despite large crops in most of the major exporting countries (Burma, Thailand, U.S., and Vietnam). Net imports for China and Indonesia are projected at a combined 3.0 million tons in 1995, compared with small positive net exports in 1994, and 1991-93's average net exports of 0.8 million tons. China is projected to import 1.5 million tons in 1995, more than double 1994's 0.7 million tons, and up sharply from the 1991-93 average of only 0.1 million tons. Traditionally, China imports high-quality long-grain rice, mostly from Thailand, for use in urban centers. However, in 1994, China's estimated 700,000 tons of official imports included a significant share of intermediate- and low-quality rice. In addition, there have been numerous reports of large unofficial rice imports from Vietnam, suggesting that China's actual 1994 rice imports may have exceeded 1 million tons. This large over-the-border rice flow from Vietnam into China continues unabated in 1995 and is, in part, responsible for continued strength in Asian rice prices. Table T1- China and Indonesia calendar year rice trade. ============================================================================ China 1/ Indonesia -------------------------- -------------------------- Combined Net Net net Year Imports Exports trade Imports Exports trade trade ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1991 67 689 622 192 0 (192) 430 1992 93 933 840 650 60 (590) 250 1993 112 1,374 1,262 22 469 447 1,709 1994 2/ 700 1,519 819 950 225 (725) 94 1995 3/ 1,500 250 (1,250) 1,750 0 (1,750) (3,000) ============================================================================ Source: USDA. 1/ Official trade data only. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. For the past 2 years, China's rice production has been trending downward. Under the Central Government of China's (CGOC) market-oriented reform there has been a significant decline in government guaranteed purchases, while private markets have offered very low prices for poor-quality rice (refer to "China's Marketing Reform Dynamic," ERS Rice Situation and Outlook Report, RS- 67, July 1993) In addition, returns to rice farming have been squeezed by escalating input costs, particularly for fertilizer and pesticides. As a result, farmers have been opting for higher returns from a switch either to alternative crops or land uses, or to higher-quality, but lower-yielding rice varieties, principally in southern rice growing areas. Farmers have received mixed signals since the last half of 1994 as high market prices have been countered by CGOC market reform rollbacks. Fear of renewed production quotas at low government prices may be inhibiting high-quality rice plantings, while distrust in government price supports and ability to pay may be inhibiting even some low-quality rice plantings. The CGOC has a profound fear of urban political unrest. Food shortages and rapid inflation are seen as flash points for urban unrest. During 1994, inflation grew over 20 percent. The CGOC pins inflation fears on escalating food prices. Large grain imports help insure urban supplies and control inflation at a time when producers appear to be either switching away from grain or holding grain off the market in hopes of higher prices later in the year. The current large imports appear to be a temporary phenomenon. However, the downward trend in domestic production caused by the CGOC market reforms, without any offsetting reduction in domestic demand, is expected to increase import demand for high-quality rice and eventually limit exportable supplies of low-quality rice (refer to USDA Staff Report WAOB-95-1, "Long-term Agricultural Baseline Projections, 1995-2000" for the long-term outlook). Any change in China's ability to export rice has important implications for world rice trade. Indonesia's 1995 import needs are projected at 1.8 million tons, the largest since 1980. However, diminishing prospects for the main-season 1995 rice crop in Java could further increase import needs. The crop was subject to delayed fall plantings and unfavorably dry growing conditions in November-December. In January-April, unrelenting rainfall caused flooding and made conditions generally unfavorable for rice growth. Indonesia's burgeoning population leaves little margin for production shortfalls. Indonesia traditionally buys low-quality long-grain rice because of the lower price. Stronger low-quality prices provide a floor for high-quality long- grain prices in Thailand and Vietnam, thus propping up Asian long-grain prices. Thailand and Burma continue to actively export rice. Their 1995 exports are projected at 5.3 and 1.2 million tons, respectively, up sharply from 4.7 and 0.6 million in 1994. U.S. SITUATION AND OUTLOOK USDA projects the 1995 rice crop at 177 million cwt, down from 1994's record 198 million. Lower production is nearly offset by larger carryin stocks and total supplies of 226 million cwt are only 2.2 percent lower than in 1994. Projected total disappearance is mostly unchanged at 188 million cwt, down less than 2 percent. Growth in domestic food consumption will partly offset lower exports. The total U.S. rice supply and disappearance is projected to remain large in 1995/96 with the ending stocks-to-use ratio declining from 21.1 percent to 20.3. USDA's projected 1995 crop is based on farmer planting intentions, average abandonment, and the 1990-1994 average yield. In March, farmers indicated planting intentions of 3.135 million acres. Currently, planting progress is behind last year's rapid pace, but ahead of the average. As of May 7, 66 percent of the rice crop had been planted, compared to 75 percent last year and 52 percent for the average. However, emergence of 51 percent is ahead of both last year and the 5-year average. A breakdown of U.S. rice acreage by state indicates a decrease in long grain production from 133.4 to 121.5 million cwt and in short and medium grain production from 64.3 to 55.5 million cwt. The decrease in long grain production will be reflected directly in total supplies, which will decline by 11.4 million cwt. However, large short and medium grain carryin stocks will raise total supplies from 74.9 to 81.4 million cwt. Strong demand for long grain rice is projected to reduce ending stocks to 12.2 million cwt, the lowest since 11.5 million cwt in 1990/91. The projected long grain ending stocks-to-use ratio of 9.2 percent for 1995/96 compares with the previous 5 year average of 12.5 percent. The short and medium grain scenario is opposite as the ending stocks-to-use ratio has increased to an abundant 44.9 percent, forecast up from the previous 5 year average of 29.8 percent. The Prospective Plantings report released March 31, 1995, was the first information available on 1995 production. The planting intentions are based primarily on farm operator surveys during the first 2 weeks of March. As the planting period matures, producers may revise their intentions due to changes in the weather, economic conditions, availability of inputs, and/or plantings report information. On June 30, NASS will publish new planted and harvested acreage estimates. On August 11, USDA will report rice production based on objective yield and farm operator surveys. U.S. exports are projected at 87 million cwt rough (2.9 million tons milled weight) in 1994/95, up nearly 16 percent from a year earlier and slightly below the 1980/81 record of 91.4 million. Shipments of rough rice have increased substantially in 1994/95. Through the first 9 months of the crop year, 751,100 tons of rough rice have been exported, while outstanding sales are at 45,800 tons. Only 165,000 tons of rough rice were shipped during all of last year. On a calendar year basis, U.S. exports are projected at 2.8 million tons (milled) in 1995, versus an estimated 2.65 million in 1994. Large import demand from China and Indonesia since November has prevented Asian export prices from falling to their traditional large discount of $50 to $100 per ton with U.S. export prices. The U.S. export price premium (U.S. No. 2, 4-percent broken, f.o.b. Gulf port versus Thai 100 percent, Grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) is estimated at $16 per ton in early May. Thus, the United States remains very competitive in Western Hemisphere and European markets. In March, USDA announced a new Export Enhancement Program (EEP) rice initiative of 220,000 tons, valid through June 30, 1995. The new initiative targets 60,000 tons to East Europe and the former Soviet Union, and 160,000 tons to the Middle East and Africa. A newcomer to the EEP list of targeted countries is Nigeria whose allocation is not to exceed 50,000 tons. Nigeria is traditionally a buyer of long-grain parboiled rice. In late April, President Clinton announced his intention to sign an executive order authorizing a trade ban with Iran, effective May 7. In the last week of April, Iran purchased an additional 137,000 tons of rice including 25,000 tons scheduled for delivery in 1995/96. According to the "U.S. Export Sales Report" of May 11, 93,400 tons of U.S. rice has been shipped to Iran, with another 164,200 tons of outstanding sales remaining to be shipped through May 4. The cumulative 257,600 tons places Iran as the third largest destination for U.S. rice behind the European Union (397,400 tons product weight) and Brazil (389,000 tons product weight) as of May 4. YEAR-TO-YEAR PRICE OUTLOOK: 1994/95 to 1995/96 In May, USDA released its first projections for 1995/96 aggregate world, foreign, and U.S. production. Total world production (milled basis) is projected up at a record 359.3 million tons (versus 357.2 in 1994/95) including larger foreign production of 353.5 million tons (versus 350.7) and a U.S. rice crop of 5.8 million tons (versus 6.6). World trade is projected at a robust 16.0 million tons in 1996, down only slightly from 1995's record 16.1 million tons. Global consumption is projected at a record 360 million tons in 1995/96, exceeding the projected record production and leading to a projected decline of nearly 0.7 million tons in global stocks to 48.1 million. These early projections are based on USDA's outlook for country-specific agricultural policy and market conditions in 1995/96, plus the assumption of normal growing conditions. Significant departures from any of these assumptions may produce dramatically different results. USDA will release its first country-level projections for 1995/96 in July. MONTH-TO-MONTH HIGHLIGHTS: April to May USDA raised its May forecast for the 1994/95 season average price range to $6.60-6.80 per cwt, up slightly from $6.50-6.80 in April, based on reported prices through the first 9 months of the crop year. USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported April's U.S. average farm price at a preliminary $6.77 per cwt. NASS also revised the March estimate to $6.64, up slightly from an initial estimate of $6.60. USDA raised its May projection for 1994/95 U.S. exports (rough basis) to 87 million cwt, up from 83 million cwt in April. This change is due to the rapid export pace to date, plus the surge in sales commitments to Iran in early May. ****************************************************************************** * INFORMATION CONTACTS AT THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE: * * * * Randall D. Schnepf, international and domestic (202) 501-8513 * * Bryan W. Just, domestic (202) 501-8524 * * * * The next Rice Monthly Outlook Report will be available on June 13, 1995. * ****************************************************************************** Notes: Readers may also refer to the following ERS AutoFAX documents. 2160 "Rice Outlook and Analysis Documents." Provides a list of available data tables, reports, and miscellaneous information concerning U.S. and international rice. þ Printed copies of the 1995 Rice Yearbook will be released in November to all ERS/NASS subscribers to the former Rice Situation and Outlook. Tables: Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1989/90 to present Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1992/93 to present Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1992/93 to present Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1988/89 to present Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by class, 1989/90 to present Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1989/90 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1994/95 1995/96 Item | 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 | 2/ 2/ ============================================================================== | | TOTAL RICE | Percent | ARP 3/ | 25 20 5 0 5 | 0 5 | | Area | Million acres | Planted | 2.731 2.897 2.884 3.176 2.920 | 3.353 3.135 Harvested | 2.687 2.823 2.781 3.132 2.833 | 3.316 3.105 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 5,749 5,529 5,731 5,736 5,510 | 5,964 5,700 | | | Million hundredweight | Beg. stocks | 26.7 26.3 24.6 27.4 39.4 | 25.8 40.3 Production | 154.5 156.1 159.4 179.7 156.1 | 197.8 177.0 Imports | 4.4 4.8 5.3 6.1 6.9 | 8.0 9.0 Total supply| 185.6 187.2 189.2 213.2 202.5 | 231.5 226.3 | | Food | 60.2 63.7 67.1 69.0 71.2 | 74.0 77.0 Seed | 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.6 4.2 | 4.1 4.1 Brewers' use | 15.4 15.3 15.4 15.1 15.1 | 15.1 15.1 Residual 4/ | 3.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 11.0 | 11.0 11.0 Domestic Use| 82.2 91.6 95.4 96.7 101.5 | 104.2 107.2 | | Exports | 77.1 71.0 66.4 77.0 75.2 | 87.0 81.0 Total use | 159.3 162.6 161.8 173.7 176.7 | 191.2 188.2 | | End. stocks | 26.3 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 | 40.3 38.1 CCC inv. | 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 | 0.1 0.0 Free stocks | 26.3 24.5 27.0 39.3 25.8 | 40.2 38.1 | | | Percent | Stocks-use | 16.5 15.1 16.9 22.7 14.6 | 21.1 20.3 | | Average farm | $/cwt | 6.60- 6.25- price 5/ | 7.35 6.68 7.58 5.89 7.98 | 6.80 7.75 | | Average | | milling Rate| 72.6 72.0 70.5 70.0 74.0 | 73.0 72.0 ============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Projected. 3/ 1995/96 final ARP was announced January 31, 1995. 4/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. 5/ Marketing year weighted average price received by farmers. Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1992/93 to present ============================================================================== | 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 | ------------------- ------------------- --------------------- Month | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================== Aug | 6.60 10,274 5.19 12,411 6.87 11,534 Sep | 6.41 12,496 5.21 12,950 6.89 12,610 Oct | 6.40 14,012 6.10 14,804 6.47 13,381 Nov | 6.42 10,844 8.06 15,228 6.53 15,470 Dec | 6.39 12,926 8.91 12,722 6.56 17,479 Jan | 6.36 13,228 8.98 14,106 6.78 17,781 Feb | 6.06 12,940 10.10 9,750 6.71 16,050 Mar | 5.64 13,197 10.20 11,594 6.64 17,565 Apr | 5.52 11,274 9.93 8,113 6.77 1/ May | 5.24 11,335 10.00 7,854 Jun | 5.02 12,551 8.88 8,708 Jul | 4.92 14,062 7.80 7,986 | Average 2/ | 5.89 12,428 8.09 11,352 6.68 15,239 Total 3/ | 149,139 136,226 6.60-6.80 121,909 ============================================================================== 1/ April price is a preliminary midmonth price estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1994/95 is for August-April. 3/ Total volume marketed. 1994/95 price range is a USDA projection. Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1992/93 to present 1/ ============================================================================= | 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 3/ Month 2/ | -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ============================================================================= | $/cwt Aug | 5.91 5.45 5.43 4.11 3.76 3.57 5.33 5.64 5.33 Sep | 5.70 5.24 5.22 4.20 3.84 3.65 5.62 5.67 5.36 Oct | 5.53 5.05 5.02 4.88 4.48 4.26 5.72 5.61 5.32 Nov | 5.48 5.00 4.97 6.56 6.15 5.86 5.79 5.59 5.31 Dec | 5.36 4.92 4.89 7.26 6.85 6.53 5.81 5.57 5.30 Jan | 5.29 4.82 4.79 7.35 7.00 6.73 6.12 5.59 5.36 Feb | 5.23 4.72 4.69 7.49 7.31 7.20 6.32 5.67 5.44 Mar | 4.98 4.45 4.43 7.29 7.30 7.18 6.32 5.71 5.48 Apr | 4.63 4.20 4.17 6.48 7.25 7.11 6.32 5.71 5.48 May | 4.38 3.97 3.95 5.91 7.19 7.03 6.43 5.79 5.55 Jun | 4.25 3.83 3.80 5.32 7.05 6.87 Jul | 4.25 3.83 3.80 5.22 6.27 6.12 | Average 2/ | 5.08 4.62 4.60 6.00 6.20 6.01 5.98 5.65 5.39 ============================================================================= 1/ Loan rate basis (rough); repayment rates for 1989-94 crops are the higher of the world price or 70 percent of the loan rate for the specified class of rice. 2/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. 3/ May is preliminary. The 1994/95 average is for August-May. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1992/93 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1993/94 |1994/95 Country |1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 |----------------|-------- or | | as of | as of region | Final Final Final Final Final | Final 05/04/94|05/04/95 ============================================================================== | 1,000 metric tons | | Eur. Union | 442 359 383 263 362 | 327 319 | 389 Oth W Eur. | 71 40 46 44 47 | 54 16 | 20 Turkey | 98 138 153 154 191 | 67 67 | 210 East Eur. | 18 20 30 39 46 | 10 10 | 60 FSU | 0 0 0 42 15 | 4 3 | 23 | | | Japan | 0 0 0 0 0 | 568 441 | 1 Iran | 0 0 0 7 130 | 121 121 | 255 Iraq | 434 299 0 0 0 | 0 0 | 0 S. Arabia | 162 145 180 146 205 | 157 174 | 125 Oth Asia/ME| 229 169 124 75 103 | 71 67 | 168 | | | Cote d'Iv. | 16 35 78 56 92 | 67 68 | 56 Senegal | 64 57 62 37 87 | 75 61 | 26 RSA | 64 103 87 103 111 | 90 100 | 109 Oth Africa | 124 104 89 47 25 | 26 26 | 31 | | | Canada | 95 96 109 88 98 | 91 81 | 114 Mexico | 58 198 87 118 249 | 177 147 | 211 Haiti | 1 17 34 97 117 | 43 35 | 97 Jamaica | 66 68 74 56 30 | 63 52 | 57 Brazil | 0 0 295 187 0 | 12 12 | 387 Peru | 27 161 25 42 34 | 3 3 | 84 Oth W Hem. | 247 116 155 184 134 | 125 98 | 383 | | | Total | 2,248 2,137 2,009 1,783 2,075 | 2,149 1,900 | 2,826 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census 2/ | 2,786 2,532 2,300 2,113 2,443 | 2,523 |2,881 4/ Diff. 3/ | 538 396 291 329 367 | 373 | 382 5/ ============================================================================== Note: the "U.S. Export Sales Report" reports sales and shipments in product weight. The milled equivalent total may vary significantly from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales Report," FAS, USDA. Columns labeled "as of" represent combined exports plus sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census Bureau rice export total (reported on a milled equivalent basis) is the official export total. 3/ The "U.S. Export Sales Report" does not include U.S. Government exports under under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 4/ USDA forecast, milled equivalent. 5/ The average difference between the the Census and the "Export Sales Report" for 1988/89-1993/94. Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present. ============================================================================== Month | U.S. 2/ Bangkok, Long Grain 4/ or | ------------------------- --------------------------------------- marketing | LG 3/ MG 3/ Parboiled 100% 5% par- 15% 35% A.1 5/ year 1/ | Houston Calif. Houston grade B boiled broken broken special ============================================================================== | $/metric ton 6/ 1986/87 | 240 282 311 190 171 173 154 122 1987/88 | 421 366 486 273 261 256 236 204 1988/89 | 324 361 386 292 284 275 256 232 1989/90 | 342 352 400 292 259 262 214 172 1990/91 | 331 347 400 296 277 261 213 169 1991/92 | 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 | 322 383 349 244 227 217 193 163 | Aug '93 | 287 342 331 218 214 196 179 156 Sep '93 | 287 342 331 216 213 192 177 158 Oct '93 | 338 342 375 272 222 237 207 162 Nov '93 | 505 408 536 337 264 288 242 167 Dec '93 | 551 485 573 330 272 281 234 156 Jan '94 | 551 485 595 376 272 305 241 151 Feb '94 | 551 485 595 390 266 313 238 155 Mar '94 | 546 485 579 330 248 240 207 155 Apr '94 | 496 507 540 331 238 242 205 157 May '94 | 423 540 472 259 235 213 190 160 Jun '94 | 386 507 444 232 228 200 186 165 Jul '94 | 342 480 394 237 251 211 197 178 1993/94 | 439 451 480 294 244 243 208 160 | Aug '94 | 313 428 353 259 271 237 222 200 Sep '94 | 309 397 344 267 265 246 233 210 Oct '94 | 304 397 331 272 262 249 238 216 Nov '94 | 298 397 331 272 263 249 236 215 Dec '94 | 298 397 331 270 259 250 237 222 Jan '95 | 298 366 331 282 264 265 252 232 Feb '95 | 298 358 342 289 266 270 255 226 Mar '95 | 298 353 342 292 269 272 253 222 Apr '95 | 298 353 342 290 269 271 254 226 May '95 7/| 309 353 347 293 269 273 258 234 ============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent. 4/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. embassy, Bangkok. 5/ 100 percent broken. 6/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 7/ Preliminary data. Table 6 - U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1989/90 to 1994/95. 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1994/95 1995/96 Item | 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 | 2/ 2/ ============================================================================== LONG GRAIN | | | Million acres | Planted | 2.031 2.129 2.113 2.408 2.102 | 2.399 3/ Harvested | 1.998 2.065 2.023 2.372 2.028 | 2.380 3/ | | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 5,464 5,221 5,395 5,397 5,082 | 5,609 3/ | | | Million hundredweight | Beg. stocks | 15.4 13.3 11.5 13.0 21.6 | 15.1 14.6 Production | 109.2 107.8 109.1 128.0 103.1 | 133.4 121.5 Imports | 4.0 4.3 4.7 5.4 6.2 | 7.1 8.1 Total supply| 128.6 125.4 125.4 146.4 130.9 | 155.6 144.2 | | Dom. use 2/ | 54.5 57.8 61.4 60.8 67.3 | 69.0 72.0 Exports | 60.8 56.0 51.0 64.0 48.6 | 72.0 60.0 Total use | 115.3 113.8 112.4 124.8 115.9 | 141.0 132.0 | | End. stocks | 13.3 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.0 | 14.6 12.2 | | Stocks-use | 11.5 10.1 11.6 17.3 12.9 | 10.4 9.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN | | Million acres | Planted | 0.700 0.768 0.765 0.768 0.818 | 0.946 3/ Harvested | 0.689 0.758 0.752 0.760 0.805 | 0.943 3/ | | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 6,579 6,370 6,680 6,795 6,590 | 6,866 3/ | | | Million hundredweight | Beg. stocks | 9.0 11.6 11.7 12.9 15.8 | 10.0 25.7 Production | 45.3 48.3 50.2 51.6 53.0 | 64.3 55.5 Imports | 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 | 0.9 0.9 Total supply| 54.7 60.4 62.5 65.3 69.6 | 75.9 81.4 | | Dom. use 2/ | 26.7 33.8 34.1 35.9 34.3 | 35.2 35.2 Exports | 16.4 15.0 15.4 13.0 26.6 | 15.0 21.0 Total use | 43.0 48.8 49.5 48.9 60.9 | 50.2 56.2 | | End. stocks | 11.6 11.7 13.0 16.3 8.7 | 25.7 25.2 | | Stocks-use | 27.0 23.9 26.3 33.4 14.3 | 51.2 44.9 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the totals for all types in Table 1. The ommitted quantities by year are: 1989/90- 2.4; 1990/91- 1.5; 1991/92- 1.4; 1992/93- 1.5; 1993/94- 2.0; and 1994/95- 0.8. 2/ Projected. 3/ Official estimate available after June Acreage report is published by NASS on June 30. END-END-END