RICE OUTLOOK June 13, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is published monthly (except January) by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. RCS-0695. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- NEAR-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: U.S. farm prices for rice are forecast steady through the remainder of the 1994/95 marketing year. The U.S. season average farm price (SAFP) in 1994/95 is expected to range from $6.65 to $6.75 per cwt, compared with 1993/94's $7.98. Farm prices must average $6.85 for the remainder of the crop year for the SAFP to equal the midpoint ($6.70) of the projected range. Through the first 10 months, the U.S. monthly farm price has averaged $6.67 per cwt. In early June, Delta States' cash markets were quoting high-quality long grain prices around $9.00 per cwt, while the Chicago Board of Trade's July 1995 long-grain rough rice contract climbed to near $9.50. However, strong cash prices often have little immediate influence on the National Agricultural Statistics Service's monthly price estimates (while futures market prices have no influence) due both to a lag in the reporting process and to farmers' heavy dependence on cooperatives for marketing their crops. A projected tight U.S. long-grain situation is expected to continue to provide considerable price support in 1995/96. The preliminary 1995/96 season average farm price is projected to range from $6.50 to $7.50 per cwt, little changed from this year. However, with exports accounting for 44 percent of total disappearance, global rice production and consumption will continue to play an important role for U.S. farm prices. Internationally traded rice prices are projected to remain strong through 1995, supported by large Asian demand. By late June, the international market will begin to focus on the progress of the Asian monsoons (occurring during June-September) and the 1995 crop prospects in the major rice producing countries of Asia. USDA will release its first 1995/96 country-specific crop production and trade projections on July 12. U.S. long-grain export prices continued to rise in May and early June due to tightening U.S. long-grain supplies and higher international prices. U.S. f.o.b., No. 2, 4-percent broken (high-quality long-grain) offer quotes out of Houston climbed to $342 per ton in June, compared with $311 in May and a steady $298 per ton for the previous 6 months. Similar type and quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B) f.o.b. offer quotes out of Bangkok have risen to $327 in June, up sharply from $299 in May. INTERNATIONAL SITUATION AND OUTLOOK Projected record world import demand of 16.4 million tons in 1995, boosted principally by Asian countries, has supported international rice prices since November, despite large crops in most of the major exporting countries (Burma, Thailand, U.S., and Vietnam). Recent new demand from Iran and the Philippines, on top of the traditional late-season stock drawdown for Northern Hemisphere producers, has further tightened the international long-grain supply and demand situation, sending Thai 100 percent, grade B prices to their highest level in over a year. China and Indonesia are each projected to import 1.8 million tons of rice during 1995. Net imports for China and Indonesia are projected at a combined 3.3 million tons in 1995, compared with small positive net exports in 1994, and 1991-93's average net exports of 0.8 million tons. (See RCS-0595 for details behind Chinese and Indonesian rice imports.) Traditionally, China imports high-quality long-grain rice, mostly from Thailand, for use in urban centers. Indonesia traditionally buys low-quality long-grain rice because of the lower price. A significant share of China's rice imports continues to come from large over- the-border trade with Vietnam. This large rice flow from Vietnam into China continues unabated in 1995 and is, in part, responsible for continued strength in Asian rice prices. Iran is projected to import a record 1.3 million tons in 1995, up sharply from only 475,000 tons in 1993. Iranian consumers prefer high-quality long-grain rice. Iran has already committed sales for the projected amount, including 268,200 tons from the United States. Possible factors behind Iran's large rice purchases could include stock rebuilding and increased demand attributable to rising incomes. A production shortfall in Bangladesh's 1994/95 rice crop due to drought during the major "Aman" crop is projected to force Bangladesh to import 600,000 tons of rice in 1995 in order to avoid food shortages. In 1994/95 Bangladesh produced only 16.5 million tons of rice, down sharply from the 18.0 million tons produced in 1993/94, and the lowest in over 6 years. Bangladesh produces three rice crops in its July-June marketing year, the Aus (July-August harvest), the Aman (November-December), and the Boro (March-May). The Aman is the largest, comprising about 56 percent of the annual total compared with 21 and 23 percent, respectively, for the Boro and the Aus crops. In the past, Bangladesh has been a price-sensitive buyer in international markets, traditionally opting for lower-quality rice in order to obtain a price discount. The Philippines has also entered the international market recently for 200,000 tons (from Asian sources) with prospects for an additional 100,000 tons. The purchase is motivated by declining supplies prior to the November-January main season harvest when two-thirds of the country's rice is harvested. This purchase suggests the fragility of the Philippine food situation since it follows a record rice harvest of an estimated 6.6 million tons in 1994/95. Dry conditions during April and May, just prior to June planting of the main- season crop, have further added to the Philippine Government's sensitivity to food supply shortfalls and have probably encouraged the politically unpopular imports. Like Bangladesh, the Philippines has demonstrated extreme price sensitivity when purchasing rice internationally. Brazil's import outlook finally appears to be easing on the heels of a bumper 1994/95 harvest. Brazil is projected to import 700,000 tons in 1995, down nearly 30 percent. Total rice production for 1994/95 is estimated at 7.4 million tons, second only to 1988/89's 8.0 million tons. Brazil's rice crop is harvested in February-April due to its Southern Hemisphere location. With large Asian demand soaking up available Thai and Vietnamese supplies, the United States has garnered a large share of Brazil's imports. Since August, Brazil has purchased 368,200 tons of predominantly rough rice from the United States. Thailand and Burma continue to actively export rice although their pre-harvest suppies are tightening. Their 1995 exports are projected at 5.3 and 1.2 million tons, respectively, up sharply from 4.7 and 0.6 million in 1994. U.S. SITUATION AND OUTLOOK: 1994/95 Marketing Year U.S. exports are projected at a record 92 million cwt rough in 1994/95, up more than 22 percent from a year earlier. When combined with record domestic use of 104 million cwt, total disappearance is expected to be up 11 percent at a record 196 million cwt. However, 1994/95's record crop of 198 million cwt easily surpasses the record disappearance permitting ending stocks to build to 35 million cwt or 18 percent of total use by August 1. However, the 1994/95 ending stocks breakout by type reveals a dichotomy in outlooks. Long grain ending stocks are expected to dip to less than 10 percent of total long grain use, and at only 13.6 million cwt, long grain stocks are down 10 percent from a year earlier and the lowest since 11.5 million cwt in 1990/91. Medium grain stocks, on the other hand, are expected to rise 117 percent to 21.7 million cwt, representing over 40 percent of total medium grain use. Shipments of rough rice have increased substantially in 1994/95 and are projected at 19.8 million cwt, rough. Only 3.6 million cwt of rough rice were shipped during all of last year. On a calendar year basis, U.S. exports are projected at 2.8 million tons (milled) in 1995, unchanged from 1994. Large import demand from China and Indonesia since November has prevented Asian export prices from falling to their traditional large discount of $50 to $100 per ton with U.S. export prices. Since January, U.S. rice (U.S. No. 2, 4-percent broken, f.o.b. Gulf port) has been trading at a premium of only $5- $16 over Thai rice (100 percent, Grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok). As of early June this premium is trading at $15. Thus, the United States remains very competitive in Western Hemisphere and European markets. In March, USDA announced a new Export Enhancement Program (EEP) rice initiative of 220,000 tons, valid through June 30, 1995. The new initiative targets 60,000 tons to East Europe and the former Soviet Union, and 160,000 tons to the Middle East and Africa. A newcomer to the EEP list of targeted countries is Nigeria, whose allocation is not to exceed 50,000 tons. Nigeria is traditionally a buyer of long-grain parboiled rice. U.S. SITUATION AND OUTLOOK: 1995/96 Marketing Year Based on March farmer planting intentions of 3.135 million acres, average abandonment, and the 1990-1994 average yield, USDA projects the 1995 total rice crop at 177 million cwt, down from 1994's record 198 million. Lower production is expected to be only partially offset by larger carryin stocks. Total supplies of 221 million cwt are more than 4 percent lower than in 1994. Projected total disappearance is down 3 percent at 190 million cwt. Growth in domestic food consumption only partially offsets a 10-percent decline in exports to 83 million cwt. Rough rice exports are expected to return to a more normal 7.0 million cwt as Brazil withdraws from the U.S. market and more Asian rice becomes available for Western Hemisphere markets. Total U.S. rice supplies are projected to tighten in 1995/96 with the ending stocks-to-use ratio declining from 18.0 percent to 16.4. The 1995 rice crop appears to be progressing very well. As of June 11, planting was complete and USDA estimates national average emergence of 94 percent in the five major rice growing States (Arkansas, California, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas), up from 88 percent a week earlier. This compares with national average emergence of 96 percent at this time last year. The overall crop condition index estimate of 107.1 (an index value of 100 is approximately normal) is slightly above last year's index of 106.3. Only 3 percent of the crop is rated poor, while 23 percent is rated fair, and 74 percent is rated good to excellent. A breakdown of U.S. rice acreage by type suggests a 9-percent decrease in long grain production to 121.5 million cwt and a 14-percent decrease in short and medium grain production to 55.5 million cwt. Smaller long grain production is expected to be offset by a 19-percent reduction in exports, leaving ending stocks slightly larger at 14.2 million cwt or 11 percent of use. Large short and medium grain carryin stocks are offset by the production decline and a projected 40 percent increase in medium grain exports to 21 million cwt. The projected rise in exports is bolstered by expected minimum access requirement purchases by Japan under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. The export gain is expected to push total use of medium grain to a record 61.2 million cwt and lower ending stocks to 16.2 million cwt or 26.5 percent of use. The Prospective Plantings report released March 31, 1995, was the first information available on 1995 production. On June 30, USDA will publish new planted and harvested acreage estimates. On August 11, USDA will report rice production based on objective yield and farm operator surveys. YEAR-TO-YEAR WORLD OUTLOOK: 1994/95 to 1995/96 Total 1995/96 world production (milled basis) is projected up slightly at a record 359.3 million tons (versus 358.9 in 1994/95), including larger foreign production of 353.5 million tons (versus 352.4) and a U.S. rice crop of 5.8 million tons (versus 6.5). World trade is projected at a record 16.4 million tons in 1996, up nearly 2 percent from 1995's record 16.1 million tons. Global consumption is projected at a record 360 million tons in 1995/96, exceeding the projected record production and leading to a projected decline of nearly 0.7 million tons in global stocks to 48.1 million. These early projections are based on USDA's outlook for country-specific agricultural policy and market conditions in 1995/96, plus the assumption of normal growing conditions. Significant departures from any of these assumptions may produce dramatically different results. USDA will release its first country-level projections for 1995/96 in July. MONTH-TO-MONTH HIGHLIGHTS: May to June USDA tightened its June forecast for the 1994/95 season average price range to $6.65-6.75 per cwt, from $6.60-6.80 in May with only two more reporting months left in the marketing year. USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported May's U.S. average monthly farm price at a preliminary $6.64 per cwt. NASS also revised the April estimate to $6.70, down slightly from an initial estimate of $6.77. USDA raised its June projection for 1994/95 U.S. exports (rough basis) to 92 million cwt, up from 87 million cwt in May. This change is due to the continued rapid export pace to date, plus the recent surge in Asian prices. USDA adjusted the breakout for use by type, lowering 1994/95 and 1995/96 long- grain domestic and residual to 65 and 67 million cwt, respectively, from 69 and 72. Medium- and short-grain domestic and residual was raised by offsetting amounts to 39.2 and 40.2 million cwt, respectively, from 35.2 and 35.2 million cwt. This adjustments reflects USDA's perception of substitution between rice types that has occurred in the domestic industry in the past 4 years. ****************************************************************************** * INFORMATION CONTACTS AT THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE: * * * * Randall D. Schnepf, international and domestic (202) 501-8513 * * Bryan W. Just, domestic (202) 501-8524 * * * * Next month's Rice Outlook will be available on July 12, 1995. * ****************************************************************************** Readers may also refer to the ERS AutoFAX documents listed under document number 2160, "Rice Outlook and Analysis Documents," for additional data, reports, and miscellaneous information concerning U.S. and international rice. Call the AutoFAX system at 202-219-1107 using the handset attached to your fax machine and follow the directions given to request document ID number 2160. Printed copies of the 1995 Rice Yearbook will be released in November to all ERS/NASS subscribers to the former Rice Situation and Outlook. Tables: Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1989/90 to present Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1992/93 to present Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1992/93 to present Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1988/89 to present Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by class, 1989/90 to present Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1989/90 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1994/95 1995/96 Item | 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 | 2/ 2/ ============================================================================== | | TOTAL RICE | Percent | ARP 3/ | 25 20 5 0 5 | 0 5 | | Area | Million acres | Planted | 2.731 2.897 2.884 3.176 2.920 | 3.353 3.135 Harvested | 2.687 2.823 2.781 3.132 2.833 | 3.316 3.105 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 5,749 5,529 5,731 5,736 5,510 | 5,964 5,700 | | | Million hundredweight | Beg. stocks | 26.7 26.3 24.6 27.4 39.4 | 25.8 35.3 Production | 154.5 156.1 159.4 179.7 156.1 | 197.8 177.0 Imports | 4.4 4.8 5.3 6.1 6.9 | 8.0 9.0 Total supply| 185.6 187.2 189.2 213.2 202.5 | 231.5 221.3 | | Food | 60.2 63.7 67.1 69.0 71.2 | 74.0 77.0 Seed | 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.6 4.2 | 4.1 4.1 Brewers' use | 15.4 15.3 15.4 15.1 15.1 | 15.1 15.1 Residual 4/ | 3.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 11.0 | 11.0 11.0 Domestic use| 82.2 91.6 95.4 96.7 101.5 | 104.2 107.2 | | Exports | 77.1 71.0 66.4 77.0 75.2 | 92.0 83.0 Total use | 159.3 162.6 161.8 173.7 176.7 | 196.2 190.2 | | End. stocks | 26.3 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 | 35.3 31.1 CCC inv. | 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 | 0.1 0.0 Free stocks | 26.3 24.5 27.0 39.3 25.8 | 35.2 31.1 | | | Percent | Stocks-use | 16.5 15.1 16.9 22.7 14.6 | 18.0 16.4 | | Average farm | $/cwt | 6.65- 6.50- price 5/ | 7.35 6.68 7.58 5.89 7.98 | 6.75 7.50 | | Average | | milling rate | 72.6 72.0 70.5 70.0 74.0 | 73.0 72.0 ============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Projected. 3/ 1995/96 final ARP was announced January 31, 1995. 4/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. 5/ Marketing year weighted average price received by farmers. Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1992/93 to present ============================================================================== | 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 | ------------------- ------------------- --------------------- Month | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================== Aug | 6.60 10,274 5.19 12,411 6.87 11,534 Sep | 6.41 12,496 5.21 12,950 6.89 12,610 Oct | 6.40 14,012 6.10 14,804 6.47 13,381 Nov | 6.42 10,844 8.06 15,228 6.53 15,470 Dec | 6.39 12,926 8.91 12,722 6.56 17,479 Jan | 6.36 13,228 8.98 14,106 6.78 17,781 Feb | 6.06 12,940 10.10 9,750 6.71 16,050 Mar | 5.64 13,197 10.20 11,594 6.64 17,565 Apr | 5.52 11,274 9.93 8,113 6.70 12,425 May | 5.24 11,335 10.00 7,854 6.64 1/ 14,922 Jun | 5.02 12,551 8.88 8,708 Jul | 4.92 14,062 7.80 7,986 | Average 2/ | 5.89 12,428 7.98 11,352 6.67 14,922 Total 3/ | 149,139 136,226 6.65-6.75 149,217 ============================================================================== 1/ Preliminary midmonth price estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1994/95 is for August to current month. 3/ Total volume marketed. 1994/95 price range is a USDA projection. Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1992/93 to present 1/ ============================================================================ | 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 3/ Month 2/| -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ============================================================================ | $/cwt Aug | 5.91 5.45 5.43 4.11 3.76 3.57 5.33 5.64 5.33 Sep | 5.70 5.24 5.22 4.20 3.84 3.65 5.62 5.67 5.36 Oct | 5.53 5.05 5.02 4.88 4.48 4.26 5.74 5.61 5.32 Nov | 5.48 5.00 4.97 6.56 6.15 5.86 5.85 5.59 5.31 Dec | 5.36 4.92 4.89 7.26 6.85 6.53 5.82 5.59 5.31 Jan | 5.29 4.82 4.79 7.35 7.00 6.73 6.21 5.62 5.58 Feb | 5.23 4.72 4.69 7.49 7.31 7.20 6.41 5.70 5.66 Mar | 4.98 4.45 4.43 7.29 7.30 7.18 6.41 5.74 5.70 Apr | 4.63 4.20 4.17 6.48 7.25 7.11 6.41 5.74 5.70 May | 4.38 3.97 3.95 5.91 7.19 7.03 6.56 5.87 5.82 Jun 3/| 4.25 3.83 3.80 5.32 7.05 6.87 7.35 6.10 6.06 Jul | 4.25 3.83 3.80 5.22 6.27 6.12 | Average 2/| 5.08 4.62 4.60 6.00 6.20 6.01 6.15 5.72 5.56 ============================================================================ 1/ Loan rate basis (rough); repayment rates for 1989-94 crops are the higher of the world price or 70 percent of the loan rate for the specified class of rice. 2/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. 3/ Preliminary. The 1994/95 average is for August to current month. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1992/93 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1993/94 |1994/95 Country |1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 |----------------|-------- or | | as of | as of region | Final Final Final Final Final | Final 06/01/94|06/01/95 ============================================================================== | 1,000 metric tons | | Eur. Union | 442 359 383 263 362 | 327 334 | 462 Oth W Eur. | 71 40 46 44 47 | 54 17 | 22 Turkey | 98 138 153 154 191 | 67 67 | 238 East Eur. | 18 20 30 39 46 | 10 10 | 62 FSU | 0 0 0 42 15 | 4 3 | 24 | | | Japan | 0 0 0 0 0 | 568 513 | 1 Iran | 0 0 0 7 130 | 121 121 | 268 Iraq | 434 299 0 0 0 | 0 0 | 0 S. Arabia | 162 145 180 146 205 | 157 177 | 129 Oth Asia/ME| 229 169 124 75 103 | 71 71 | 173 | | | Cote d'Iv. | 16 35 78 56 92 | 67 68 | 56 Senegal | 64 57 62 37 87 | 75 63 | 33 RSA | 64 103 87 103 111 | 90 100 | 125 Oth Africa | 124 104 89 47 25 | 26 6 | 42 | | | Canada | 95 96 109 88 98 | 91 84 | 127 Mexico | 58 198 87 118 249 | 177 154 | 251 Haiti | 1 17 34 97 117 | 43 38 | 131 Jamaica | 66 68 74 56 30 | 63 60 | 77 Brazil | 0 0 295 187 0 | 12 12 | 368 Peru | 27 161 25 42 34 | 3 3 | 77 Oth W Hem. | 247 116 155 184 134 | 125 456 | 419 | | | Total | 2,248 2,137 2,009 1,783 2,075 | 2,149 2,023 | 3,105 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census 2/ | 2,786 2,532 2,300 2,113 2,443 | 2,523 |2,881 4/ Diff. 3/ | 538 396 291 329 367 | 373 | 382 5/ ============================================================================== Note: the "U.S. Export Sales Report" reports sales and shipments in product weight. The milled equivalent total may vary significantly from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales Report," FAS, USDA. Columns labeled "as of" represent combined exports plus sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census Bureau rice export total (reported on a milled equivalent basis) is the official export total. 3/ The "U.S. Export Sales Report" does not include U.S. Government exports under under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 4/ USDA forecast, milled equivalent. 5/ The average difference between the the Census and the "Export Sales Report" for 1988/89-1993/94. Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present. ============================================================================== Month | U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 4/ or | ------------------------- --------------------------------------- marketing | LG 3/ MG 3/ Parboiled 100% 5% par- 15% 35% A.1 5/ year 1/ | Houston Calif. Houston grade B boiled broken broken special ============================================================================== | $/metric ton 6/ 1986/87 | 240 282 311 190 171 173 154 122 1987/88 | 421 366 486 273 261 256 236 204 1988/89 | 324 361 386 292 284 275 256 232 1989/90 | 342 352 400 292 259 262 214 172 1990/91 | 331 347 400 296 277 261 213 169 1991/92 | 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 | 322 383 349 244 227 217 193 163 | Aug '93 | 287 342 331 218 214 196 179 156 Sep '93 | 287 342 331 216 213 192 177 158 Oct '93 | 338 342 375 272 222 237 207 162 Nov '93 | 505 408 536 337 264 288 242 167 Dec '93 | 551 485 573 330 272 281 234 156 Jan '94 | 551 485 595 376 272 305 241 151 Feb '94 | 551 485 595 390 266 313 238 155 Mar '94 | 546 485 579 330 248 240 207 155 Apr '94 | 496 507 540 331 238 242 205 157 May '94 | 423 540 472 259 235 213 190 160 Jun '94 | 386 507 444 232 228 200 186 165 Jul '94 | 342 480 394 237 251 211 197 178 1993/94 | 439 451 480 294 244 243 208 160 | Aug '94 | 313 428 353 259 271 237 222 200 Sep '94 | 309 397 344 267 265 246 233 210 Oct '94 | 304 397 331 272 262 249 238 216 Nov '94 | 298 397 331 272 263 249 236 215 Dec '94 | 298 397 331 270 259 250 237 222 Jan '95 | 298 366 331 282 264 265 252 232 Feb '95 | 298 358 342 289 266 270 255 226 Mar '95 | 298 353 342 292 269 272 253 222 Apr '95 | 298 353 342 290 269 271 254 226 May '95 | 311 353 346 299 272 278 265 237 Jun '95 7/| 342 353 375 327 299 305 288 260 ============================================================================== NA = Not available. 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent. 4/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. embassy, Bangkok. 5/ 100 percent broken. 6/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 7/ Preliminary. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1989/90 to 1995/96. 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1994/95 1995/96 Item | 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 | 2/ 2/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN | | | Million Acres | Planted | 2.031 2.129 2.113 2.408 2.102 | 2.410 3/ Harvested | 1.998 2.065 2.023 2.372 2.028 | 2.379 3/ | | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 5,464 5,221 5,395 5,397 5,082 | 5,609 3/ | | | Million hundredweight | Beg. stocks | 15.4 13.3 11.5 13.0 21.6 | 15.1 13.6 Production | 109.2 107.8 109.1 128.0 103.1 | 133.4 121.5 Imports | 4.0 4.3 4.7 5.4 6.2 | 7.1 8.1 Total supply| 128.6 125.4 125.4 146.4 130.9 | 155.6 143.2 | | Dom. use 2/ | 54.5 57.8 61.4 60.8 67.2 | 65.0 67.0 Exports | 60.7 56.0 51.0 64.0 48.6 | 77.0 62.0 Total use | 115.2 113.8 112.4 124.8 115.8 | 142.0 129.0 | | End. stocks | 13.2 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 | 13.6 14.2 | Percent | Stocks-use | 11.5 10.1 11.6 17.3 13.0 | 9.6 11.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN | | Million acres | Planted | 0.700 0.768 0.771 0.768 0.818 | 0.943 3/ Harvested | 0.689 0.758 0.758 0.760 0.805 | 0.937 3/ | | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 6,579 6,370 6,627 6,795 6,590 | 6,866 3/ | | | Million hundredweight | Beg. stocks | 9.0 11.6 11.7 12.9 15.8 | 10.0 21.7 Production | 45.3 48.3 50.2 51.6 53.0 | 64.3 55.5 Imports | 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 | 0.9 0.9 Total supply| 54.7 60.4 62.4 64.8 70.9 | 75.9 77.4 | | Dom. use 2/ | 26.7 33.8 34.1 35.9 34.3 | 39.2 40.2 Exports | 16.4 15.0 15.4 13.0 26.6 | 15.0 21.0 Total use | 43.1 48.8 49.5 48.9 60.9 | 54.2 61.2 | | End. stocks | 11.6 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 | 21.7 16.2 | Percent | Stocks-use | 27.0 23.9 26.1 32.4 16.4 | 40.1 26.5 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the totals for all types in Table 1. The ommitted quantities by year are: 1989/90- 2.4; 1990/91- 1.5; 1991/92- 1.4; 1992/93- 1.5; 1993/94- 2.0; and 1994/95- 0.8. 2/ Projected. 3/ Official estimate available after June Acreage report on June 30. END-END-END