Rice Outlook Report, RCS-0795 Economic Research Service, USDA ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board July 13, 1995 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS: o The June Acreage report estimates total U.S. rice planted area at 3.165 million acres, up only slightly from the March Prospective Plantings report. However, there was significant switching from medium grain to long grain rice in the Delta States. o The U.S. crop appears to be making good progress. USDA revised the 1995 crop estimate upward slightly to 178 million cwt. o The South Asian monsoons started late, and have produced slightly below normal precipitation to date. However, recent weather forecasts suggest that the monsoons are returning to normal precipitation patterns. o Heavy rainfall in East Asia has produced flooding in parts of China and South Korea. Some rice damage is suspected in China. o USDA released its 1995/96 rice production estimates by country in July. Record foreign and world production is projected. o USDA projects sharply lower global import demand in 1996, suggesting a return to stronger export competition and softer prices by early 1996. NEAR-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK U.S. farm prices for rice are forecast steady through the remainder of 1995. With one month remaining in the 1994/95 marketing year, the U.S. season average farm price (SAFP) is estimated at $6.70 per cwt, compared with 1993/94's $7.98. USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported June's average monthly farm price at a preliminary $6.91 per cwt. NASS also revised the May estimate to $6.75, up from an initial estimate of $6.70. An increase in expected long-grain planted area (June Acreage report), has lessened earlier fears of tight U.S. ending stocks. However, continued strong world trade and rapid U.S. exports are expected to continue to support prices through the first half of 1995/96. The preliminary 1995/96 season average farm price is projected to range from $6.50 to $7.50 per cwt, little changed from this year. However, with exports accounting for 44 percent of total disappearance, global rice production and consumption will play an important role for U.S. farm prices. Internationally traded rice prices are projected to remain strong through 1995, supported by large Asian demand. U.S. long-grain export prices continued to rise since May due to strong exports, tight long-grain supplies, and higher international prices. U.S. f.o.b., No. 2, 4-percent broken (high- quality long-grain) offer quotes out of Houston climbed to $397 per ton in July, compared with $342 in June, $311 in May, and a steady $298 per ton for the previous 6 months. Similar type and quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B) f.o.b. offer quotes out of Bangkok have risen to $336 per ton, up from $327 in June and $299 in May. Recent increases in U.S. export prices have inflated the price premium of U.S. rice (U.S. No. 2, 4-percent broken, f.o.b. Gulf port) over Thai rice (100 percent, Grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) to $63 per ton, up sharply from only $12 in May. However, limited Asian supplies prior to the 1995 main season harvests in October-December have helped maintain the United States' competitive edge in Western Hemisphere and European markets. 1995/96 INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION OUTLOOK Total 1995/96 world production (milled basis) is projected up slightly at a record 358.7 million tons (versus 358.5 in 1994/95), including larger foreign production of 352.9 million tons (versus 352.0) and a U.S. rice crop of 5.8 million tons (versus 6.5). The South Asian monsoons started about 2 weeks later than usual, and have produced highly variable precipitation amounts. However, most major rice growing areas have received sufficient rain for planting and initial growth. Weather reports for the past week suggest that monsoon rains are beginning to strengthen, increasing the likelihood of normal growing conditions. Planting conditions appear favorable in Bangladesh, while some replanting has occurred in eastern India due to excessive rains and flooding. Rice crops in both Bangladesh and India will need continued good monsoon rainfall through the summer for normal growth. USDA projects India to produce a 1995/96 crop of 78 million tons (milled). Although down from last year's record 80 million, a 78-million-ton crop would still add to India's grain surplus situation. Bangladesh is projected to produce 18 million tons in 1995/96, up sharply from last year's poor harvest of only 16.6 million tons. In Pakistan, 1995 production is projected up slightly at 3.6 million tons compared with 3.5 million last year. To date no significant monsoon rain has arrived. Traditionally, monsoon rains reach Pakistan around the first of July. However, almost all of Pakistan's rice crop is irrigated. As a result, the late arrival of the monsoon rains is not expected to have any major effect on rice production. Recent heavy rainfall in central China running from southern Shandong to northern Hunan has produced worsening flood conditions in the Yangtze River Basin. This is a principal rice growing region and significant damage is suspected. However, the extent of the flood damage is unknown, and it is too early to evaluate any potential trade implications. Farmers may still replant some of their crops since the climate in southeastern China is favorable for late-planted rice. Elsewhere in China the rice crop appears to be in favorable condition. Dry weather in the far southeast is benefiting the early crop harvest. Assuming a return to normal weather patterns, China is projected to produce a crop of 125.3 million tons on 30.5 million hectares, up from last year's 123.2 million tons grown on 30.2 million hectares. The 1995 crop is expected to reverse a 2-year trend of declining area and production. South Korea also received heavy rains, but little flooding developed and most of the heavier rains fell outside of primary rice growing areas. Rice production is projected at 5.0 million tons in 1995, unchanged from last year. In Southeast Asia, planting and rainfall have been normal to date. Record production is projected for Burma, the Philippines, and Vietnam on the strength of expanded area. Increased production is also projected for Indonesia, reversing a 2-year pattern of declining production. In Thailand, a large crop of 13.9 million tons is projected, nearly repeating 1994/95's bumper harvest of 14.0 million tons. Global consumption is projected at a record 364 million tons in 1995/96, exceeding the projected record production and leading to a projected decline of over 5 million tons in global stocks to 42.8 million. 1995 WORLD TRADE REVISED UPWARD; 1996 WORLD TRADE PROJECTED LOWER Projected record world import demand of 17.1 million tons in 1995 and the traditional late-season stock drawdown for Northern Hemisphere producers have tightened the international long-grain supply and demand situation, driving international prices to their highest level in over a year. Import demand is led by China, Indonesia, and Iran with projected imports of 1.8, 2.0, and 1.3 million tons, respectively, during 1995. Bangladesh is expected to import 600,000 tons due to a poor 1994 harvest. In addition, recent demand from the Philippines and North Korea, projected at 250,000 and 550,000 tons, respectively, has added to 1995's record demand. North Korea is expected to import 150,000 tons from South Korea, with an additional 300,000 tons from Japan and 100,000 tons from Thailand. Both Japan and South Korea are expected to begin importing rice this fall under the minimum access criteria of the World Trade Organization. World trade is projected at 16.0 million tons in 1996, down more than 6 percent from 1995's record 17.1 million tons. Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, and Iran account for the decrease as their combined 1996 imports are projected to decline from 5.65 million tons in 1995 to only 3.2 million. The weak demand outlook for 1996 and continued strong supply from the major Asian exporters suggest greater trade competition and softer prices by early 1996. U.S. SITUATION AND OUTLOOK: 1994/95 Marketing Year Ending stocks are projected up at 35 million cwt (rough) or 18 percent of total use in 1994/95, despite record exports and domestic use. Exports are projected at a record 92 million cwt in 1994/95, including a record 77 million cwt of long grain. As a result, long grain ending stocks are projected down at a tight 9.6 percent of total use, the lowest since 1990/91. Medium grain stocks are expected to rise 117 percent to 21.7 million cwt, representing over 40 percent of total medium grain use. U.S. SITUATION AND OUTLOOK: 1995/96 Marketing Year In early June, USDA estimated 1995 rice plantings at 3.165 million acres (June 30 Acreage report), down 5.6 percent from 1994, but up slightly from USDA's March Prospective Plantings report (See table 6). A 5-percent acreage reduction program plus lower farm prices in 1994/95 are responsible for the reduced 1995 planting estimate. For the previous 10 years, on average both the March planting intentions and the June acreage estimates have understated the final planted area. However, during the past 2 years the June estimate has overstated final plantings (Table T1). In 9 out of the 10 years, the June acreage estimate has been a better approximation of final plantings than the March planting intentions. Although the June Acreage report showed only a slight increase in 1995 area planted from the March Prospective Plantings report, a significant shift in area by type is predicted as long grain area is estimated up 4.2 percent and medium grain area down 7.8 percent from March planting intentions. Rising long grain prices relative to medium grain prices since January are behind the shift in area. Medium grain (No.1, 4 percent, fob California) was trading at a $99 per ton premium to long grain (No.2, 4 percent, fob Gulf port) in December. By May the medium grain premium had fallen to $42. In June medium grain prices fell to a $13 discount with long grain and are currently (early July) quoted at a $47 discount. Table T1- U.S. rice plantings. ========================================================================== Percent of final March June -------------------- Year intentions estimate Final March June ========================================================================== -------- 1,000 acres -------- Percent 1985 2,468 2,505 2,512 98.2 99.7 1986 2,270 2,348 2,381 95.3 98.6 1987 2,319 2,344 2,356 98.4 99.5 1988 2,803 2,883 2,933 95.6 98.3 1989 2,861 2,771 2,731 104.8 101.5 1990 2,902 2,865 2,897 100.2 98.9 1991 2,812 2,870 2,884 97.5 99.5 1992 2,995 3,025 3,176 94.3 95.2 1993 3,125 3,015 2,920 107.0 103.3 1994 3,290 3,355 3,353 98.1 100.1 Average 2,785 2,798 2,814 98.9 99.5 1995 3,135 3,165 ========================================================================== Source: USDA, NASS. Based on June acreage estimates of 3.165 million acres, average abandonment, and the 1990-1994 average yield, USDA projects the 1995 U.S. rice crop at 178 million cwt, down from 1994's record 198 million. The 1995 rice crop appears to be progressing very well. As of July 10, USDA estimates that 15 percent of the crop has headed in the five major rice growing States (Arkansas, California, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas), up from 10 percent a week earlier. This compares with the 5-year national average heading of 14 percent. Last year at this time 18 percent of the crop had headed. The average national crop condition index estimate of 3.95 (1=very poor; 2=poor; 3=fair; 4=good; 5=excellent) is slightly above last year's index of 3.93 at this time. Only 2 percent of the crop is rated poor, while 20 percent is rated fair, and 78 percent is rated good to excellent. On August 11, NASS will release the first estimate of 1995 rice yields based on an actual field surveys. A breakdown of U.S. rice acreage by type suggests a 6-percent decrease in long grain production to 125.4 million cwt and a 18-percent decrease in short and medium grain production to 52.6 million cwt. Smaller long grain production is expected to be offset by a 16-percent reduction in exports, leaving ending stocks slightly larger at 15.1 million cwt or 11 percent of use. U.S. rice exports in 1995/96 are forecast at 86 million cwt based on the increase in long-grain supplies (resulting from expected larger planted area) and continued strong demand in Latin America, the Middle East, and Europe. Rough rice exports are expected to remain strong at 14.0 million cwt as continued growth is projected in Brazil and other Western Hemisphere markets. Medium grain exports are projected to increase 40 percent to 21 million cwt. This projection is bolstered by expected minimum access requirement purchases by Japan and South Korea under the World Trade Organization. The export gain is expected to push total use of medium grain to a record 61.2 million cwt and lower ending stocks to 13.3 million cwt or 21.7 percent of use. Total U.S. rice supplies are projected to tighten in 1995/96 with the ending stocks-to-use ratio declining from 18.0 percent to 15.1. ****************************************************************************** * INFORMATION CONTACTS AT THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE: * * * * Randall D. Schnepf, international and domestic (202) 501-8513 * * Bryan W. Just, domestic (202) 501-8524 * * Next month's Rice Outlook will be available on August 13, 1995. * ****************************************************************************** Notes: Refer to ERS AutoFAX document 2160, "Rice Outlook and Analysis Documents," for a listing of additional data, reports, and miscellaneous information concerning U.S. and international rice. Printed copies of the 1995 Rice Yearbook will be released in November to all ERS/NASS subscribers to the former Rice Situation and Outlook. Tables: Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1989/90 to present Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1992/93 to present Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1992/93 to present Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1988/89 to present Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present Table 6- State and U.S. rice area: intended, estimated, and final. Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1989/90 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1994/95 1995/96 Item | 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 | 2/ 2/ ============================================================================== | | TOTAL RICE | Percent | ARP 3/ | 25 20 5 0 5 | 0 5 | | Area | Million acres | Planted | 2.731 2.897 2.884 3.176 2.920 | 3.353 3.165 Harvested | 2.687 2.823 2.781 3.132 2.833 | 3.316 3.111 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 5,749 5,529 5,731 5,736 5,510 | 5,964 5,722 | | | Million hundredweight | Beg. Stocks | 26.7 26.3 24.6 27.4 39.4 | 25.8 35.3 Production | 154.5 156.1 159.4 179.7 156.1 | 197.8 178.0 Imports | 4.4 4.8 5.3 6.1 6.9 | 8.0 9.0 Total Supply| 185.6 187.2 189.2 213.2 202.5 | 231.5 222.3 | | Food | 60.2 63.7 67.1 69.0 71.2 | 74.0 77.0 Seed | 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.6 4.2 | 4.1 4.1 Brewer's use | 15.4 15.3 15.4 15.1 15.1 | 15.1 15.1 Residual 4/ | 3.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 11.0 | 11.0 11.0 Domestic Use| 82.2 91.6 95.4 96.7 101.5 | 104.2 107.2 | | Exports | 77.1 71.0 66.4 77.0 75.2 | 92.0 86.0 Rough | 4.8 6.3 5.1 3.6 | 19.8 14.0 Mld(rgh eq)| 66.2 60.1 71.9 71.5 | 72.2 72.0 Total Use | 159.3 162.6 161.8 173.7 176.7 | 196.2 193.2 | | End. Stocks | 26.3 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 | 35.3 29.1 CCC inv. | 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 | 0.1 0.0 Free Stocks | 26.3 24.5 27.0 39.3 25.8 | 35.2 29.1 | | | Percent | Stocks-use | 16.5 15.1 16.9 22.7 14.6 | 18.0 15.1 | | Average Farm | $/cwt | 6.50 Price 5/ | 7.35 6.68 7.58 5.89 7.98 | 6.70 -7.50 | | Average | | Milling Rate | 72.6 72.0 70.5 70.0 74.0 | 73.0 72.0 ============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Projected. 3/ 1995/96 final ARP was announced January 31, 1995. 4/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. 5/ Marketing year weighted average price recieved by farmers. Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1992/93 to present ============================================================================== | 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 | ------------------- ------------------- --------------------- Month | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================== Aug | 6.60 10,274 5.19 12,411 6.87 11,534 Sep | 6.41 12,496 5.21 12,950 6.89 12,610 Oct | 6.40 14,012 6.10 14,804 6.47 13,381 Nov | 6.42 10,844 8.06 15,228 6.53 15,470 Dec | 6.39 12,926 8.91 12,722 6.56 17,479 Jan | 6.36 13,228 8.98 14,106 6.78 17,781 Feb | 6.06 12,940 10.10 9,750 6.71 16,050 Mar | 5.64 13,197 10.20 11,594 6.64 17,565 Apr | 5.52 11,274 9.93 8,113 6.70 12,425 May | 5.24 11,335 10.00 7,854 6.75 16,848 Jun | 5.02 12,551 8.88 8,708 6.91 1/ 15,114 Jul | 4.92 14,062 7.80 7,986 | Average 2/ | 5.89 12,428 7.98 11,352 6.70 15,114 Total 3/ | 149,139 136,226 6.70 4/ 166,257 ============================================================================== 1/ Preliminary midmonth price estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1994/95 is for August to current month. 3/ Total volume marketed. 4/ 1994/95 price range is a USDA projection. Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1992/93 to present 1/ ============================================================================ | 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 3/ Month 2/| -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ============================================================================ | $/cwt Aug | 5.91 5.45 5.43 4.11 3.76 3.57 5.33 5.64 5.33 Sep | 5.70 5.24 5.22 4.20 3.84 3.65 5.62 5.67 5.36 Oct | 5.53 5.05 5.02 4.88 4.48 4.26 5.74 5.61 5.32 Nov | 5.48 5.00 4.97 6.56 6.15 5.86 5.85 5.59 5.31 Dec | 5.36 4.92 4.89 7.26 6.85 6.53 5.82 5.59 5.31 Jan | 5.29 4.82 4.79 7.35 7.00 6.73 6.21 5.62 5.58 Feb | 5.23 4.72 4.69 7.49 7.31 7.20 6.41 5.70 5.66 Mar | 4.98 4.45 4.43 7.29 7.30 7.18 6.41 5.74 5.70 Apr | 4.63 4.20 4.17 6.48 7.25 7.11 6.41 5.74 5.70 May | 4.38 3.97 3.95 5.91 7.19 7.03 6.56 5.87 5.82 Jun | 4.25 3.83 3.80 5.32 7.05 6.87 7.38 6.03 6.00 Jul 3/| 4.25 3.83 3.80 5.22 6.27 6.12 7.55 6.03 5.99 | Average 2/| 5.08 4.62 4.60 6.00 6.20 6.01 6.27 5.74 5.59 ============================================================================ 1/ Loan rate basis (rough); repayment rates for 1989-94 crops are the higher of the world price or 70 percent of the loan rate for the specified class of rice. 2/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. 3/ Preliminary. The 1994/95 average is for August to current month. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1992/93 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1993/94 |1994/95 Country |1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 |----------------|-------- or | | as of | as of region | Final Final Final Final Final | Final 07/06/94|07/06/95 ============================================================================== | 1,000 metric tons | | Eur. Union | 442 359 383 263 362 | 327 353 | 485 Oth W Eur. | 71 40 46 44 47 | 54 17 | 23 Turkey | 98 138 153 154 191 | 67 67 | 272 East Eur. | 18 20 30 39 46 | 10 10 | 62 FSU | 0 0 0 42 15 | 4 4 | 24 | | | Japan | 0 0 0 0 0 | 568 568 | 2 Iran | 0 0 0 7 130 | 121 121 | 266 Iraq | 434 299 0 0 0 | 0 0 | 0 S. Arabia | 162 145 180 146 205 | 157 177 | 163 Oth Asia/ME| 229 169 124 75 103 | 71 73 | 176 | | | Cote d'Iv. | 16 35 78 56 92 | 67 68 | 57 Senegal | 64 57 62 37 87 | 75 63 | 43 RSA | 64 103 87 103 111 | 90 100 | 125 Oth Africa | 124 104 89 47 25 | 26 26 | 73 | | | Canada | 95 96 109 88 98 | 91 89 | 131 Mexico | 58 198 87 118 249 | 177 163 | 284 Haiti | 1 17 34 97 117 | 43 38 | 135 Jamaica | 66 68 74 56 30 | 63 68 | 78 Brazil | 0 0 295 187 0 | 12 12 | 368 Peru | 27 161 25 42 34 | 3 3 | 77 Oth W Hem. | 247 116 155 184 134 | 125 126 | 468 | | | Total | 2,248 2,137 2,009 1,783 2,075 | 2,149 2,147 | 3,316 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census 2/ | 2,786 2,532 2,300 2,113 2,443 | 2,523 |2,881 4/ Diff. 3/ | 538 396 291 329 367 | 373 | 382 5/ ============================================================================== Note: the "U.S. Export Sales Report" reports sales and shipments in product weight. The milled equivalent total may vary significantly from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales Report," FAS, USDA. Columns labeled "as of" represent combined exports plus sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census Bureau rice export total (reported on a milled equivalent basis) is the official export total. 3/ The "U.S. Export Sales Report" does not include U.S. Government exports under under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 4/ USDA forecast, milled equivalent. 5/ The average difference between the the Census and the "Export Sales Report" for 1988/89-1993/94. Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present. ============================================================================== Month | U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 4/ or | ------------------------- --------------------------------------- marketing | LG 3/ MG 3/ Parboiled 100% 5% par- 15% 35% A.1 5/ year 1/ | Houston Calif. Houston grade B boiled broken broken special ============================================================================== | $/metric ton 6/ 1986/87 | 240 282 311 190 171 173 154 122 1987/88 | 421 366 486 273 261 256 236 204 1988/89 | 324 361 386 292 284 275 256 232 1989/90 | 342 352 400 292 259 262 214 172 1990/91 | 331 347 400 296 277 261 213 169 1991/92 | 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 | 322 383 349 244 227 217 193 163 | Aug '93 | 287 342 331 218 214 196 179 156 Sep '93 | 287 342 331 216 213 192 177 158 Oct '93 | 338 342 375 272 222 237 207 162 Nov '93 | 505 408 536 337 264 288 242 167 Dec '93 | 551 485 573 330 272 281 234 156 Jan '94 | 551 485 595 376 272 305 241 151 Feb '94 | 551 485 595 390 266 313 238 155 Mar '94 | 546 485 579 330 248 240 207 155 Apr '94 | 496 507 540 331 238 242 205 157 May '94 | 423 540 472 259 235 213 190 160 Jun '94 | 386 507 444 232 228 200 186 165 Jul '94 | 342 480 394 237 251 211 197 178 1993/94 | 439 451 480 294 244 243 208 160 | Aug '94 | 313 428 353 259 271 237 222 200 Sep '94 | 309 397 344 267 265 246 233 210 Oct '94 | 304 397 331 272 262 249 238 216 Nov '94 | 298 397 331 272 263 249 236 215 Dec '94 | 298 397 331 270 259 250 237 222 Jan '95 | 298 366 331 282 264 265 252 232 Feb '95 | 298 358 342 289 266 270 255 226 Mar '95 | 298 353 342 292 269 272 253 222 Apr '95 | 298 353 342 290 269 271 254 226 May '95 | 311 353 346 299 274 279 262 239 Jun '95 | 366 353 384 332 304 312 296 275 Jul '95 7/| 397 353 397 336 312 318 302 282 ============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent. 4/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. embassy, Bangkok. 5/ 100 percent broken. 6/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 7/ Preliminary data. Table 6- State and U.S. rice area: intended and estimated. ============================================================================== -------- planted --------- Change: -- for harvest -- 1994 ----- 1995 ------ March 1994 1995 March June to June Type/State Final intent estimate June Final estimate ============================================================================== ----- 1,000 acres ----- Percent -- 1,000 acres -- Long grain Arkansas 1,218 1,130 1,170 3.5 1,200 1,145 California 7 8 8 0.0 7 8 Louisiana 400 410 460 12.2 397 452 Mississippi 315 290 300 3.4 313 295 Missouri 130 103 105 1.9 123 100 Texas 340 336 330 -1.8 339 328 United States 2,410 2,277 2,373 4.2 2,379 2,328 Medium grain Arkansas 220 218 198 -9.2 218 193 California 470 442 432 -2.3 468 430 Louisiana 225 180 140 -22.2 223 138 Mississippi --- --- --- --- --- --- Missouri 1 2 --- -100.0 1 --- Texas 15 4 10 150.0 15 10 United States 931 846 780 -7.8 925 771 Short grain Arkansas 2 2 2 0.0 2 2 California 10 10 10 0.0 10 10 United States 12 12 12 0.0 12 12 All rice Arkansas 1,440 1,350 1,370 1.5 1,420 1,340 California 487 460 450 -2.2 485 448 Louisiana 625 590 600 1.7 620 590 Mississippi 315 290 300 3.4 313 295 Missouri 131 105 105 0.0 124 100 Texas 355 340 340 0.0 354 338 United States 3,353 3,135 3,165 1.0 3,316 3,111 ============================================================================== Source: USDA, NASS.