HDR1011800201500814951600 RICE OUTLOOK August 14, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is published monthly (except January) by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. RCS-0895. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS: o USDA estimates average 1995 U.S. rice yields at 5,954 pounds per acre, slightly below last year's record 5,964 pounds. o The June Acreage report's estimated total U.S. rice harvested area of 3.111 million acres implies a 1995 crop estimate of 185.2 million cwt (rough). o USDA estimates 1994/95 U.S. rice exports at a record 100 million cwt (rough), up 33 percent from a year earlier. o The Asian monsoons have returned to normal precipitation patterns after a slow start. All major Asian rice growing regions appear to be receiving adequate precipitation. o China's 1995/96 rice crop estimate was lowered 2.3 million tons to 123.0 million due to crop damage resulting from heavy rainfall and flooding in parts of China in July. o USDA revised upward its estimate of 1995 rice trade to a record 17.9 million tons on the strength of continued strong buying by Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, and the Philippines. o USDA projects sharply lower global import demand in 1996, suggesting a return to stronger export competition and softer prices by early 1996. NEAR-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK U.S. farm prices for rice are forecast steady through the remainder of 1995. The 1994/95 season average farm price (SAFP) is estimated at $6.75 per cwt, compared with 1993/94's $7.98. USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported July's average monthly farm price at a preliminary $7.05 per cwt. NASS also revised the June estimate to $7.03, up from an initial estimate of $6.91. Continued strong world trade and rapid U.S. exports have renewed concerns of tight U.S. long-grain ending stocks and are expected to continue to support prices through the first half of 1995/96 (August-July). The preliminary 1995/96 season average farm price is projected to range from $6.50 to $7.50 per cwt, little changed from 1994/95. However, with exports accounting for 50 percent of total disappearance, global rice production and consumption will play an important role for U.S. farm prices. Internationally traded rice prices are projected to remain strong into late 1995, supported by large Asian demand. U.S. long-grain export prices remain firm due to strong exports, tight long-grain supplies, and higher international prices. U.S. f.o.b., No. 2, 4-percent broken (high-quality long-grain) offer quotes out of Houston softened slightly the first week in August at $386 per ton, compared with an average of $392 per ton in July. Similar type and quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B) f.o.b. offer quotes out of Bangkok are at $346 per ton, down slightly from a $353 July average. Recent increases in U.S. export prices have inflated the price premium of U.S. rice (U.S. No. 2, 4-percent broken, f.o.b. Gulf port) over Thai rice (100 percent, Grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) to $40 per ton, up sharply from only $12 in May. However, limited Asian supplies prior to the 1995 main season harvests in October-December have helped maintain the United States' competitive edge in Western Hemisphere and European markets. WORLD TRADE REVISED UPWARD FOR 1995; PROJECTED LOWER FOR 1996 World import demand is projected up 12 percent at a record 17.9 million tons in 1995. The record import demand and the traditional late-season stock drawdown for Northern Hemisphere producers continue to tighten the international long-grain supply and demand situation and to support international prices. Import demand is led by Indonesia in 1995 with projected record imports of 2.2 million tons. Additional important sources of import demand in 1995 include Bangladesh, China, and Iran with projected imports of 1.0, 1.8, and 1.3 million tons, respectively. In addition, recent demand from the Philippines and North Korea, projected at 300,000 and 550,000 tons, respectively, has added to 1995's record demand. Thailand is expected to lead 1995 world trade with exports of 5.5 million tons, its largest exports since a record 6.0 million tons in 1989. The United States is second with projected record exports of 3.1 million tons. India and Vietnam are each projected to export a record 2.0 million tons of rice in 1995. For India, this represents a substantial gain over its previous record of 919,000 tons in 1981. For Vietnam, it matches 1994's estimated record export level. Burma is expected to achieve its largest exports in 30 years at 1.2 million tons on the strength of rising production. Finally, Pakistan's projected 1995 exports of 1.1 million tons round out the top six exporting countries which, together, account for over 83 percent of world rice exports. World trade is projected at 16.4 million tons in 1996, down more than 8 percent from 1995's record. Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, and Iran account for the decrease as their combined 1996 imports are projected to decline from 6.25 million tons in 1995 to only 3.95 million. The weaker demand outlook for 1996 and continued strong supply from the major Asian exporters suggest greater trade competition and softer prices by early 1996. INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION OUTLOOK FOR 1995/96 Total 1995/96 world production (milled basis) is projected at 357.0 million tons, down 3.3 million from last year. Recent upward revisions in 1994/95 crop estimates for India at 81.6 million tons (up 1.60 million) and Thailand at 14.1 million tons (up 0.14 million) have raised 1994/95 world rice production to an estimated record 360.3 million tons, while a significant downward revision of 2.3 million tons in China's 1995/96 rice crop to 123.0 million tons has lowered the August outlook for 1995/96 global production. The Asian monsoons started about 2 weeks later than usual. However, most major rice growing areas have received sufficient rain for planting and initial growth. Since mid-July monsoon rains have been strengthening, increasing the likelihood for normal growing conditions. USDA projects India to produce a 1995/96 crop of 78 million tons (milled). Although down from last year's record 81.6 million, the crop would still add to India's grain surplus situation. Bangladesh is projected to produce 18 million tons in 1995/96, up sharply from last year's poor harvest of only 16.6 million tons. The increased production is expected to reduce Bangladesh's import needs to only 150,000 tons in 1996. Heavy rainfall in July in central China running from southern Shandong to northern Hunan produced flood conditions in the Yangtze River Basin, a principal rice growing region, damaging the rice crop. As a result, China is projected to produce a crop of only 123.0 million tons on 30.5 million hectares, down slightly from last year's 123.2 million tons grown on 30.2 million hectares. This reduced production forecast would continue China's 3- year trend of declining rice output and maintain strong import demand (projected at 1.5 million tons) in 1996. In Southeast Asia, planting and rainfall have been normal to date. Record production is projected for Burma, the Philippines, and Vietnam on the strength of expanded area. In Thailand, a large crop of 14.1 million tons is projected, repeating 1994/95's bumper harvest. Increased production is also projected for Indonesia, reversing a 2-year pattern of declining production. However, Indonesia's production is projected to fall signficantly short of demand for a third consecutive year, preserving the need for large imports (projected at 1.5 million tons) in 1996. Global consumption is projected at a record 363.7 million tons in 1995/96, exceeding the projected record production and leading to a projected decline of nearly 7 million tons in global stocks to 42.3 million. U.S. SITUATION AND OUTLOOK: 1994/95 Marketing Year U.S. ending stocks are projected up at 32.3 million cwt (rough) or 16 percent of total use in 1994/95, despite record exports and domestic use. Exports are estimated at a record 100 million cwt in 1994/95, including a record 85 million cwt of long grain. As a result, long grain ending stocks are projected down at a tight 8.8 percent of total use, the lowest since 1990/91. Medium grain stocks are expected to nearly double at 19.7 million cwt, representing 35 percent of total medium grain use. U.S. SITUATION AND OUTLOOK: 1995/96 Marketing Year In early June, USDA estimated 1995 rice plantings at 3.165 million acres (June 30 Acreage report), down 5.6 percent from 1994. A 5-percent acreage reduction program plus lower farm prices in 1994/95 are responsible for the reduced 1995 planting estimate. Based on conditions in early August, USDA estimates average 1995 U.S. rice yields at 5,954 pounds per acre, slightly below last year's record 5,964 pounds but the second highest on record. Based on the June acreage estimate, average abandonment, and the August yield forecast, USDA projects the 1995 U.S. rice crop at 185.2 million cwt, down 6 percent from 1994's record 197.8 million. A breakdown of U.S. rice production by type suggests a 2-percent decrease in long grain production to 130.8 million cwt and a 15-percent decrease in short and medium grain production to 54.4 million cwt. Smaller long grain production is expected to be offset by an 18-percent reduction in exports, leaving long-grain ending stocks larger at 16.5 million cwt or 12 percent of use. Long-grain area is estimated down 1.5 percent in 1995 at 2.373 million acres, while medium-grain area is down more than 16 percent at 0.780 million acres. Rising long grain prices relative to medium grain prices since January explain the more rapid shift out of medium grain. Medium grain (No.1, 4 percent, f.o.b. California) was trading at a $99 per ton premium to long grain (No.2, 4 percent, f.o.b. Gulf port) in December. By May the medium grain premium had fallen to $42. In June medium grain prices fell to a $13 discount with long grain and are currently (early August) quoted at a $22 discount. The 1995 rice crop appears to be progressing very well. As of August 6, USDA estimates that 62 percent of the crop has headed in the five major rice growing States (Arkansas, California, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas), up from 45 percent a week earlier. This compares with the 5-year national average heading of 48 percent. Last year at this time 66 percent of the crop had headed. In addition, the rice harvest has already begun in Louisiana and Texas, where rice farmers have already harvested 32 and 11 percent, respectively, of their crop compared with their 5-year averages of 23 and 19 percent. Wet weather from tropical storm Dean has hampered harvesting in Texas in early August. The average national crop condition index estimate of 3.95 (1=very poor; 2=poor; 3=fair; 4=good; 5=excellent) is slightly above last year's index of 3.86 at this time. Only 2 percent of the crop is rated poor, while 18 percent is rated fair, and 80 percent is rated good to excellent. U.S. rice exports in 1995/96 are forecast at 91 million cwt based on projected available U.S. supplies and continued strong demand in Latin America, the Middle East, and Europe. Rough rice exports are expected to remain strong at 15 million cwt as continued growth is projected in Brazil and other Western Hemisphere markets. Medium grain exports are projected to increase 40 percent to 21 million cwt. This projection is bolstered by expected minimum access requirement purchases by Japan and South Korea under the World Trade Organization. The export gain is expected to push total use of medium grain to a record 61.2 million cwt and lower ending stocks to 13.2 million cwt, or 21.6 percent of use. Total U.S. rice supplies are projected to tighten in 1995/96 with the ending stocks-to-use ratio declining slightly from 16.2 percent to 15.5. ****************************************************************************** * INFORMATION CONTACTS AT THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE: * * * * Randall D. Schnepf, international and domestic (202) 501-8513 * * * * Next month's Rice Outlook will be available on September 13, 1995. * ****************************************************************************** Notes: Refer to ERS AutoFAX document 2160, "Rice Outlook and Analysis Documents," for a listing of additional data, reports, and miscellaneous information concerning U.S. and international rice. Printed copies of the 1995 Rice Yearbook will be released in November to all ERS/NASS subscribers to the former Rice Situation and Outlook. Tables: Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1989/90 to present Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1992/93 to present Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1992/93 to present Table 4- U.S. accumulated exports, 1988/89 to present Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1989/90 to 1995/96. Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1989/90 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1994/95 1995/96 Item | 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 | 2/ 2/ ============================================================================== | | TOTAL RICE | Percent | ARP 3/ | 25 20 5 0 5 | 0 5 | | Area | Million acres | Planted | 2.731 2.897 2.884 3.176 2.920 | 3.353 3.165 Harvested | 2.687 2.823 2.781 3.132 2.833 | 3.316 3.111 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 5,749 5,529 5,731 5,736 5,510 | 5,964 5,954 | | | Million hundredweight | Beg. Stocks | 26.7 26.3 24.6 27.4 39.4 | 25.8 32.3 Production | 154.5 156.1 159.4 179.7 156.1 | 197.8 185.2 Imports | 4.4 4.8 5.3 6.1 6.9 | 8.0 9.0 Total Supply| 185.6 187.2 189.2 213.2 202.5 | 231.5 226.6 | | Food | 60.2 63.7 67.1 69.0 71.2 | 74.0 77.0 Seed | 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.6 4.2 | 4.1 4.1 Brewer's use | 15.4 15.3 15.4 15.1 15.1 | 15.1 15.1 Residual 4/ | 3.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 11.0 | 6.0 9.0 Domestic Use| 82.2 91.6 95.4 96.7 101.5 | 99.2 105.2 | | Exports | 77.1 71.0 66.4 77.0 75.2 | 100.0 91.0 Rough | 4.8 6.3 5.1 3.6 | 21.0 15.0 Mld(rgh eq)| 66.2 60.1 71.9 71.5 | 79.0 76.0 Total Use | 159.3 162.6 161.8 173.7 176.7 | 199.2 196.2 | | End. Stocks | 26.3 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 | 32.3 30.4 CCC inv. | 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 | 0.1 0.0 Free Stocks | 26.3 24.5 27.0 39.3 25.8 | 32.2 30.4 | | | Percent | Stocks-use | 16.5 15.1 16.9 22.7 14.6 | 16.2 15.5 | | Average Farm | $/cwt | 6.50 Price 5/ | 7.35 6.68 7.58 5.89 7.98 | 6.75 -7.50 | | Average | | Milling Rate | 72.6 72.0 70.5 70.0 74.0 | 73.0 72.0 ============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Projected. 3/ 1995/96 final ARP was announced January 31, 1995. 4/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. 5/ Marketing year weighted average price recieved by farmers. Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1992/93 to present ============================================================================== | 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 | ------------------- ------------------- --------------------- Month | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================== Aug | 6.60 10,274 5.19 12,411 6.87 11,534 Sep | 6.41 12,496 5.21 12,950 6.89 12,610 Oct | 6.40 14,012 6.10 14,804 6.47 13,381 Nov | 6.42 10,844 8.06 15,228 6.53 15,470 Dec | 6.39 12,926 8.91 12,722 6.56 17,479 Jan | 6.36 13,228 8.98 14,106 6.78 17,781 Feb | 6.06 12,940 10.10 9,750 6.71 16,050 Mar | 5.64 13,197 10.20 11,594 6.64 17,565 Apr | 5.52 11,274 9.93 8,113 6.70 12,425 May | 5.24 11,335 10.00 7,854 6.75 16,848 Jun | 5.02 12,551 8.88 8,708 7.03 13,793 Jul | 4.92 14,062 7.80 7,986 7.05 1/ 14,994 | Average 2/ | 5.89 12,428 7.98 11,352 6.74 14,994 Total 3/ | 149,139 136,226 6.75 4/ 179,930 ============================================================================== 1/ Preliminary midmonth price estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1994/95 is for August to current month. 3/ Total volume marketed. 4/ 1994/95 price range is a USDA projection. Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1992/93 to present 1/ ============================================================================ | 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 Month 2/| -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ============================================================================ | $/cwt Aug | 5.91 5.45 5.43 4.11 3.76 3.57 5.33 5.64 5.33 Sep | 5.70 5.24 5.22 4.20 3.84 3.65 5.62 5.67 5.36 Oct | 5.53 5.05 5.02 4.88 4.48 4.26 5.74 5.61 5.32 Nov | 5.48 5.00 4.97 6.56 6.15 5.86 5.85 5.59 5.31 Dec | 5.36 4.92 4.89 7.26 6.85 6.53 5.82 5.59 5.31 Jan | 5.29 4.82 4.79 7.35 7.00 6.73 6.21 5.62 5.58 Feb | 5.23 4.72 4.69 7.49 7.31 7.20 6.41 5.70 5.66 Mar | 4.98 4.45 4.43 7.29 7.30 7.18 6.41 5.74 5.70 Apr | 4.63 4.20 4.17 6.48 7.25 7.11 6.41 5.74 5.70 May | 4.38 3.97 3.95 5.91 7.19 7.03 6.56 5.87 5.82 Jun | 4.25 3.83 3.80 5.32 7.05 6.87 7.38 6.03 6.00 Jul | 4.25 3.83 3.80 5.22 6.27 6.12 7.63 6.10 6.06 | Average 2/| 5.08 4.62 4.60 6.00 6.20 6.01 6.28 5.74 5.59 ============================================================================ 1/ Loan rate basis (rough); repayment rates for 1989-94 crops are the higher of the world price or 70 percent of the loan rate for the specified class of rice. 2/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. accumulated exports, 1992/93 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1993/94 |1994/95 Country |1988/89 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 |----------------|-------- or | | as of | as of region | Final Final Final Final Final | Final 07/31/94|07/31/95 ============================================================================== | 1,000 metric tons | | Eur. Union | 442 359 383 263 362 | 327 362 | 474 Oth W Eur. | 71 40 46 44 47 | 54 18 | 23 Turkey | 98 138 153 154 191 | 67 67 | 259 East Eur. | 18 20 30 39 46 | 10 10 | 58 FSU | 0 0 0 42 15 | 4 4 | 18 | | | Japan | 0 0 0 0 0 | 568 568 | 2 Iran | 0 0 0 7 130 | 121 121 | 191 Iraq | 434 299 0 0 0 | 0 0 | 0 S. Arabia | 162 145 180 146 205 | 157 157 | 153 Oth Asia/ME| 229 169 124 75 103 | 71 71 | 182 | | | Cote d'Iv. | 16 35 78 56 92 | 67 67 | 57 Senegal | 64 57 62 37 87 | 75 75 | 28 RSA | 64 103 87 103 111 | 90 90 | 113 Oth Africa | 124 104 89 47 25 | 26 26 | 59 | | | Canada | 95 96 109 88 98 | 91 91 | 127 Mexico | 58 198 87 118 249 | 177 177 | 327 Haiti | 1 17 34 97 117 | 43 43 | 148 Jamaica | 66 68 74 56 30 | 63 63 | 74 Brazil | 0 0 295 187 0 | 12 12 | 368 Peru | 27 161 25 42 34 | 3 3 | 77 Oth W Hem. | 247 116 155 184 134 | 125 125 | 464 | | | Total | 2,248 2,137 2,009 1,783 2,075 | 2,149 2,149 | 3,201 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census 2/ | 2,786 2,532 2,300 2,113 2,443 | 2,523 |3,300 4/ Diff. 3/ | 538 396 291 329 367 | 373 | 382 5/ ============================================================================== Note: the "U.S. Export Sales Report" reports sales and shipments in product weight. The milled equivalent total may vary significantly from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales Report," FAS, USDA. Columns labeled "as of" excludes sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census Bureau rice export total (reported on a milled equivalent basis) is the official export total. 3/ The "U.S. Export Sales Report" does not include U.S. Government exports under under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 4/ USDA forecast, milled equivalent. 5/ The average difference between the the Census and the "Export Sales Report" for 1988/89-1993/94. Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present. ============================================================================== Month | U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 4/ or | ------------------------- --------------------------------------- marketing | LG 3/ MG 3/ Parboiled 100% 5% par- 15% 35% A.1 5/ year 1/ | Houston Calif. Houston grade B boiled broken broken special ============================================================================== | $/metric ton 6/ 1986/87 | 240 282 311 190 171 173 154 122 1987/88 | 421 366 486 273 261 256 236 204 1988/89 | 324 361 386 292 284 275 256 232 1989/90 | 342 352 400 292 259 262 214 172 1990/91 | 331 347 400 296 277 261 213 169 1991/92 | 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 | 322 383 349 244 227 217 193 163 | Aug '93 | 287 342 331 218 214 196 179 156 Sep '93 | 287 342 331 216 213 192 177 158 Oct '93 | 338 342 375 272 222 237 207 162 Nov '93 | 505 408 536 337 264 288 242 167 Dec '93 | 551 485 573 330 272 281 234 156 Jan '94 | 551 485 595 376 272 305 241 151 Feb '94 | 551 485 595 390 266 313 238 155 Mar '94 | 546 485 579 330 248 240 207 155 Apr '94 | 496 507 540 331 238 242 205 157 May '94 | 423 540 472 259 235 213 190 160 Jun '94 | 386 507 444 232 228 200 186 165 Jul '94 | 342 480 394 237 251 211 197 178 1993/94 | 439 451 480 294 244 243 208 160 | Aug '94 | 313 428 353 259 271 237 222 200 Sep '94 | 309 397 344 267 265 246 233 210 Oct '94 | 304 397 331 272 262 249 238 216 Nov '94 | 298 397 331 272 263 249 236 215 Dec '94 | 298 397 331 270 259 250 237 222 Jan '95 | 298 366 331 282 264 265 252 232 Feb '95 | 298 358 342 289 266 270 255 226 Mar '95 | 298 353 342 292 269 272 253 222 Apr '95 | 298 353 342 290 269 271 254 226 May '95 | 311 353 346 299 274 279 262 239 Jun '95 | 358 353 380 333 305 314 397 276 Jul '95 | 392 353 406 353 341 335 321 297 1994/95 | 314 375 348 290 276 270 263 232 | Aug '95 7/| 386 364 419 346 344 328 313 294 ============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent. 4/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. embassy, Bangkok. 5/ 100 percent broken. 6/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 7/ Preliminary data. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1989/90 to 1994/95. 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1994/95 1995/96 Item | 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 | 2/ 2/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN | | | Million Acres | Planted | 2.031 2.129 2.113 2.408 2.102 | 2.410 2.373 Harvested | 1.998 2.065 2.023 2.372 2.028 | 2.379 2.328 | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 5,464 5,221 5,395 5,397 5,082 | 5,609 5,619 | Million hundredweight | Beg. Stocks | 15.4 13.3 11.5 13.0 21.6 | 15.1 12.6 Production | 109.2 107.8 109.1 128.0 103.1 | 133.4 130.8 Imports | 4.0 4.3 4.7 5.4 6.2 | 7.1 8.1 Total Supply| 128.6 125.4 125.4 146.4 130.9 | 155.6 151.5 | | Dom. Use 3/ | 55.6 57.8 61.4 60.8 67.3 | 58.0 65.0 Exports | 60.7 56.0 51.0 64.0 48.6 | 85.0 70.0 Total Use | 116.3 113.8 112.4 124.8 115.9 | 143.0 135.0 | | End. Stocks | 12.3 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.0 | 12.6 16.5 | Percent | Stocks-use | 10.6 10.1 11.6 17.3 12.9 | 8.8 12.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN | | Million Acres | Planted | 0.700 0.768 0.771 0.768 0.818 | 0.943 0.792 Harvested | 0.689 0.758 0.758 0.760 0.805 | 0.937 0.783 | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 6,579 6,370 6,627 6,795 6,590 | 6,866 6,951 | Million hundredweight | Beg. Stocks | 9.0 11.6 11.7 12.9 15.8 | 10.0 19.7 Production | 45.3 48.3 50.2 51.6 53.0 | 64.3 54.4 Imports | 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 | 0.9 0.9 Total Supply| 54.7 60.4 62.5 64.8 70.9 | 75.2 75.1 | | Dom. Use 3/ | 26.7 33.8 34.1 35.9 34.2 | 41.2 40.2 Exports | 16.4 15.0 15.4 13.0 26.6 | 15.0 21.0 Total Use | 43.0 48.8 49.5 48.9 60.9 | 56.2 61.2 | | End. Stocks | 11.6 11.7 13.0 15.8 10.0 | 19.7 13.2 | Percent | Stocks-use | 27.0 23.9 26.3 32.3 16.4 | 35.1 21.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ End.Stocks | | Difference | | from total 1/| 2.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 2.0 | 0.7 0.7 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the totals for all types in Table 1. 2/ Projected. 3/ Includes residual. End end end