HDR1011800201500913951600 RICE OUTLOOK September 13, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is published monthly (except January) by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. RCS-0995 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS: þ USDA forecasts the 1995 U.S. rice crop at 181.8 million cwt (rough), with average yields at 5,843 pounds per acre, down 2 percent from last year's record 5,964 pounds. þ USDA raised its projected range for the 1995/96 season average farm price by $0.25 to $6.75 to 7.75 per cwt due to the reduced U.S. crop outlook and strong international demand. þ USDA forecasts 1995/96 U.S. rice ending stocks at a tight 26.0 million cwt (rough), down 17 percent from a year earlier. þ USDA estimates final 1994/95 U.S. rice ending stocks at 31.4 million cwt (rough), down slightly from last month's estimate of 32.3 million cwt. þ Excess rainfall in South Korea's rice growing regions in late August have reduced yield prospects. As a result, projected 1995 rice output has been lowered to 4.8 million tons, down 0.2 million from last month. þ India's projected 1995 rice exports have been raised 0.8 million tons to 2.8 million displacing Vietnam as the world's third largest rice exporter. þ USDA revised upward (for the fifth consecutive month) its estimate of 1995 rice trade to a record 18.7 million tons on the strength of continued strong buying by China and Indonesia, as well as large, predominantly non- commercial, expected imports by North Korea. NEAR-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK REMAINS BULLISH Continued strong world import demand and diminished U.S. crop prospects are expected to continue to support U.S. farm prices through the first half of 1995/96 (August-July). The 1995/96 season average farm price range is forecast at $6.75 to 7.75 per cwt, compared with 1994/95's $6.74. USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported July's average monthly farm price at a preliminary $7.33 per cwt. NASS also revised the July estimate to $7.17, up from an initial estimate of $7.05. With exports accounting for nearly half of total disappearance, global rice production and consumption will play an important role for U.S. farm prices in 1995/96. Internationally traded rice prices are projected to remain strong through 1995, supported by large Asian demand. U.S. long-grain export prices remain firm due to strong exports, tight long-grain supplies, and higher international prices. U.S. f.o.b., No. 2, 4-percent broken (high-quality long-grain) offer quotes out of Houston slipped to $375 per ton in early September from July's peak of $392. Similar type and quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B) f.o.b. offer quotes out of Bangkok are at $359 per ton, up slightly from a $346 August average. The recent softening in U.S. export prices has lowered the price premium of U.S. rice (U.S. No. 2, 4-percent broken, f.o.b. Gulf port) over Thai rice (100 percent, Grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) to $16 per ton, down sharply from $40 in July and August. Limited Asian supplies prior to the 1995 main season harvests in November-December are expected to help maintain the United States' competitive edge in Western Hemisphere and European markets. INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND PRODUCTION OUTLOOK FOR 1995/96 World import demand is projected up 16 percent to a record 18.7 million tons in 1995. The record demand and the traditional late-season stock drawdown for Northern Hemisphere producers continue to tighten the international long-grain supply situation and to support prices. Import demand is led by Indonesia in 1995 with projected record imports of 2.2 million tons, followed closely by China also at a projected record 2.0 million tons. Other major importers in 1995 include Bangladesh and Iran with projected imports of 1.1 and 1.3 million tons, respectively. Projected imports by North Korea have been revised higher to 750,000 tons (up from 500,000 tons last month), adding to 1995's record demand. Saudi Arabia and Brazil represent strong steady markets with projected imports of 750,000 and 700,000 tons, respectively. Thailand is expected to be the largest exporter in 1995 with exports of 5.5 million tons, its largest exports since a record 6.0 million tons in 1989. The United States is second with projected record exports of 3.1 million tons. India's export projection has been revised upward to a record 2.8 million tons, placing India third slightly behind the United States. India's previous record was a substantially smaller 919,000 tons in 1981. Vietnam is projected to export 2.0 million tons in 1995, matching 1994's estimated record. Burma is expected to achieve its largest exports in 30 years at 1.1 million tons on the strength of rising production. Finally, Pakistan's projected 1995 exports of 1.1 million tons round out the top six exporting countries which, together, account for over 83 percent of world rice exports. World trade is projected at 16.4 million tons in 1996, down more than 12 percent from 1995's record. Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, Iran, and North Korea account for the decrease as their combined 1996 imports are projected to decline from 7.3 million tons in 1995 to only 4.2 million. Despite the projected decline in 1996 world import demand, world trade is still projected at its second highest level while world stocks are projected at their tightest since 1976/77. This tight supply situation suggests that international prices will be very sensitive to any production shortfall from a major exporting or consuming nation. Total 1995/96 world production (milled basis) is projected at 357.7 million tons, down 2.6 million from last year's record. Global consumption is projected at a record 363.6 million tons in 1995/96, exceeding projected production and leading to a decline of nearly 6 million tons in global stocks to 43.4 million. USDA projects India will produce a 1995/96 crop of 79 million tons (milled). Although down from last year's record 81.6 million, the crop would still add to India's grain surplus situation and permit expanded exports. Bangladesh is projected to produce 18 million tons in 1995/96, up sharply from last year's poor harvest of only 16.6 million tons. The increased production is expected to reduce Bangladesh's import needs to only 150,000 tons in 1996. Heavy rainfall in August has reduced South Korea's rice production prospects to 4.8 million tons compared with last month's projected 5.0 million and last year's normal crop of 5.1 million. South Korea's rice acreage has been trending down since 1987 due to increasing alternate land uses and urbanization, and is currently projected to be the lowest (1.1 million hectares) in over 35 years. The projected smaller 1995 harvest, low stocks of only 800,000 tons (lowest since 1979), and exports to North Korea of 200,000 tons suggest that South Korea's import needs may exceed its minimum access criteria of 57,000 tons agreed to under the World Trade Organization's Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariff and Trade. Like Japan, South Korea supports domestic production at prices significantly above the world market. South Korea's 1994 producer support price was $2,066 per ton, while Japan's was $2,673 per ton. These compare with the U.S. loan rate of $143.30 per ton. As a result, it is expected that any South Korean rice purchases in excess of minimum access requirements would be very supportive of medium grain prices. China's 1995 early rice production is reported at 42.2 million tons (official Chinese media), up 3 percent from a year earlier. However, China is projected to produce a crop of only 123.0 million tons on 30.5 million hectares, down slightly from last year's 123.2 million tons grown on 30.2 million hectares. July floods in the Yangtze River Basin, a principal rice growing region, and recent weather-related problems affecting the single and late-season rice crops are expected to account for the decline. As a result, China's 3-year trend of declining rice output is likely to continue, maintaining strong import demand (projected at 1.5 million tons) in 1996. In Southeast Asia, planting and rainfall were normal through August. Record production is projected for Burma, the Philippines, and Vietnam on the strength of expanded area. In Thailand, a large crop of 14.1 million tons is projected, repeating 1994/95's bumper harvest. However, heavy rainfall in early September in Laos, northern Thailand, and Vietnam has caused severe flooding with potential crop damage and yield reduction. Any yield loss from this recent weather event is not factored into current crop estimates. Increased production is also projected for Indonesia, reversing a 2-year pattern of declining production. However, Indonesia's production is projected to fall signficantly short of demand for a third consecutive year, preserving the need for large imports in 1996 (projected at 1.5 million tons). U.S. SITUATION AND OUTLOOK: 1995/96 Marketing Year Production Forecast Down Based on conditions in early September, USDA forecasts the 1995 U.S. rice crop at 181.8 million cwt, down 8 percent from 1994's record 197.8 million. National average yields are forecast at 5,843 pounds per acre, 2 percent below last year's record 5,964 pounds but still the second highest on record. Rice plantings are currently forecast at 3.165 million acres (June 30 Acreage report), down 5.6 percent from 1994. A 5-percent acreage reduction program and lower farm prices in 1994/95 are responsible for the reduced 1995 planting estimate. A breakdown of 1995 U.S. rice production by type suggests a 4-percent decrease in long grain production to 128.3 million cwt and a 17-percent decrease in short and medium grain production to 53.4 million cwt (table 6). U.S. rice production prospects diminished significantly during August due to prolonged, high temperatures covering most of the Gulf coast and Delta growing regions. Prior to the onset of the extreme temperatures, yield potential appeared excellent as crop development was running slightly ahead of last year's record pace. Unfortunately, the good vegetative growth and development of thick rice stands magnified the acuteness of July and August's high temperatures. High day-time temperatures (in excess of 95 degrees) were absorbed by standing water in rice fields. The water retained this heat into the night when air temperatures cooled to 79-85 degrees. However, the thick field canopy prevented sub-canopy field temperatures from falling below 90 degrees as the water in the field released its heat. The rice plants, already stressed by high day-time temperatures, were kept under stress by the high sub-canopy temperatures. This resulted in less than optimal conditions for head filling, and is expected to reduce yields signficantly across the affected regions. Rice harvesting is under way in the Gulf coast and Delta States, but the California harvest has yet to begin. As of September 10, 37 percent of the U.S. crop has been harvested, compared with the 5-year average of 34 percent. Rice farmers in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas have already harvested 74, 82, 61, and 16 percent, respectively, of their crop compared with their respective 5-year averages of 77, 72, 21, and 15. USDA's September 10 national average crop condition index was at 103.8, compared with 110.5 last year, and 108.7 on August 6. Only 66 percent of the crop is rated good to excellent (down from 79 percent on August 6), while 34 percent is rated poor to fair (up from 21 percent on August 6). U.S. rice exports in 1995/96 are forecast at 91 million cwt based on projected available U.S. supplies, continued strong international demand, and a competitive U.S. price. Latin America, the Middle East, and Europe are expected to remain critical markets for U.S. rice. Rough rice exports are expected to remain strong at 15 million cwt as continued growth is projected in Brazil and other Western Hemisphere markets. Lower production and continued strong exports are expected to lower 1995/96 U.S. rice ending stocks to a tight 26.0 million cwt (rough), down 17 percent from a year earlier. This represents only 13.2 percent of total use, the lowest since 1980/81. Smaller long grain production is expected to be partially offset by an 18- percent reduction in exports. However, sharply higher domestic demand is expected to lower long-grain ending stocks to 15.9 million cwt or only 11.8 percent of use. Medium grain exports are projected to increase 40 percent to 21 million cwt. This projection is bolstered by expected minimum access requirement purchases by Japan and South Korea under the World Trade Organization. The export gain is expected to push total use of medium grain to a record 61.2 million cwt and signficantly lower ending stocks to 9.4 million cwt, or 15.3 percent of use. U.S. SITUATION AND OUTLOOK: 1994/95 Marketing Year Wrap-Up USDA's Rice Stocks report on August 31 placed 1994/95 U.S. rice ending stocks at 31.4 million cwt (rough) or 16 percent of total use. Domestic disappearance is estimated at 100.1 million cwt, down from 1993/94's record 101.5 million. However, exports are estimated at a record 100 million cwt, including a record 85 million cwt of long grain, pushing total use to a record 200.1 million cwt. Ending long grain ending stocks are revised upward to 14.5 million cwt or 10.3 percent of total use, up significantly from last month's estimate of 12.6 million cwt. Medium grain stocks are revised lower to 15.8 million cwt, compared with last month's 19.7 million cwt. ****************************************************************************** * INFORMATION CONTACTS AT THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE: * * * * Randall D. Schnepf, international and domestic (202) 501-8513 * * Next month's Rice Outlook will be available on October 12, 1995. * ****************************************************************************** Refer to ERS AutoFAX document 2160, "Rice Outlook and Analysis Documents," for a listing of additional data, reports, and miscellaneous information concerning U.S. and international rice. Printed copies of the 1995 Rice Yearbook will be released in November to all ERS/NASS subscribers to the former Rice Situation and Outlook. Tables: Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1989/90 to present Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1993/94 to present Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1993/94 to present Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1989/90 to present 1/ Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1989/90 to 1995/96. Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1989/90 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1995/96 Item | 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 | 1994/95 2/ ============================================================================== | | TOTAL RICE | Percent | ARP | 25 20 5 0 5 | 0 5 | | Area | Million acres | Planted | 2.731 2.897 2.884 3.176 2.920 | 3.353 3.165 Harvested | 2.687 2.823 2.781 3.132 2.833 | 3.316 3.111 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 5,749 5,529 5,731 5,736 5,510 | 5,964 5,843 | | | Million hundredweight | Beg. stocks | 26.7 26.3 24.6 27.4 39.4 | 25.8 31.4 Production | 154.5 156.1 159.4 179.7 156.1 | 197.8 181.8 Imports | 4.4 4.8 5.3 6.1 6.9 | 8.0 9.0 Total supply| 185.6 187.2 189.2 213.2 202.5 | 231.5 222.2 | | Food | 60.2 63.7 67.1 69.0 71.2 | 74.0 77.0 Seed | 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.6 4.2 | 4.1 4.1 Brewer's use | 15.4 15.3 15.4 15.1 15.1 | 15.1 15.1 Residual 3/ | 3.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 11.0 | 6.9 9.0 Domestic use| 82.2 91.6 95.4 96.7 101.5 | 100.1 105.2 | | Exports | 77.1 71.0 66.4 77.0 75.2 | 100.0 91.0 Rough | 4.8 6.3 5.1 3.6 | 21.0 15.0 Mld(rgh eq)| 66.2 60.1 71.9 71.5 | 79.0 76.0 Total use | 159.3 162.6 161.8 173.7 176.7 | 200.1 196.2 | | End. stocks | 26.3 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 | 31.4 26.0 CCC inv. | 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 | 0.1 0.0 Free stocks | 26.3 24.5 27.0 39.3 25.8 | 31.3 26.0 | | | Percent | Stocks-use | 16.5 15.1 16.9 22.7 14.6 | 15.7 13.2 | | Average farm | $/cwt | 6.75 price 4/ | 7.35 6.68 7.58 5.89 7.98 | 6.74 -7.75 | | Average | Percent | milling rate | 72.6 72.0 70.5 70.0 74.0 | 73.0 72.0 ============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Projected. 3/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. 4/ Marketing year weighted average price received. Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1993/94 to present ============================================================================= | 1995/96 1994/95 1993/94 | -------------------- ------------------- ------------------- Month | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================= Aug | 7.33 1/ 6.87 11,534 5.19 12,411 Sep | 6.89 12,610 5.21 12,950 Oct | 6.47 13,381 6.10 14,804 Nov | 6.53 15,470 8.06 15,228 Dec | 6.56 17,479 8.91 12,722 Jan | 6.78 17,781 8.98 14,106 Feb | 6.71 16,050 10.10 9,750 Mar | 6.64 17,565 10.20 11,594 Apr | 6.70 12,425 9.93 8,113 May | 6.75 16,848 10.00 7,854 Jun | 7.03 13,793 8.88 8,708 Jul | 7.17 9,847 7.80 7,986 | Average 2/ | 6.74 14,565 7.98 11,352 Total 3/ | 6.75-7.75 4/ 174,783 136,226 ============================================================================= 1/ Preliminary midmonth price estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1995/96 is for August to current month. 3/ Total volume marketed. 4/ 1995/96 price range is a USDA projection. Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1992/93 to present 1/ ============================================================================ | 1995/96 1994/95 1993/94 Month 2/| -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ============================================================================ | $/cwt Aug 3/| 8.01 6.23 6.16 5.33 5.64 5.33 4.11 3.76 3.57 Sep | 5.62 5.67 5.36 4.20 3.84 3.65 Oct | 5.74 5.61 5.32 4.88 4.48 4.26 Nov | 5.85 5.59 5.31 6.56 6.15 5.86 Dec | 5.82 5.59 5.31 7.26 6.85 6.53 Jan | 6.21 5.62 5.58 7.35 7.00 6.73 Feb | 6.41 5.70 5.66 7.49 7.31 7.20 Mar | 6.41 5.74 5.70 7.29 7.30 7.18 Apr | 6.41 5.74 5.70 6.48 7.25 7.11 May | 6.56 5.87 5.82 5.91 7.19 7.03 Jun | 7.38 6.03 6.00 5.32 7.05 6.87 Jul | 7.63 6.10 6.06 5.22 6.27 6.12 | Average 2/| 8.01 6.23 6.16 6.28 5.74 5.59 6.00 6.20 6.01 ============================================================================ 1/ Loan rate basis (rough); repayment rates for 1989-94 crops are the higher of the world price or 70 percent of the loan rate for the specified class of rice. 2/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. 3/ Preliminary. The 1995/96 average is for August to current month. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1989/90 to present 1/ ============================================================================== |1995/96 |1994/95 | Country |--------|--------1994/95 |1993/94 1992/93 1991/92 1990/91 1989/90 or | as of | as of | region |08/31/95|08/31/94 Final | Final Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== | | | 1,000 metric tons Eur. Union | 93 | 125 474 | 362 362 263 383 359 O W Eur | 7 | 12 22 | 18 47 44 46 40 Turkey | 31 | 15 259 | 67 191 154 153 138 East Eur. | 27 | 0 58 | 10 46 39 30 20 FSU | 9 | 4 18 | 4 15 42 0 0 | | | Japan | 2 | 0 2 | 568 0 0 0 0 | | | OTH ASIA/ME| 185 | 64 527 | 349 438 228 304 613 Iran | 96 | 0 191 | 121 130 7 0 0 Iraq | 0 | 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 299 S. Arabia | 14 | 38 153 | 157 205 146 180 145 | | | AFRICA | 74 | 50 257 | 258 315 244 316 299 Cote d'Iv.| 21 | 0 57 | 67 92 56 78 35 Senegal | 15 | 7 28 | 75 87 37 62 57 RSA | 14 | 39 113 | 90 111 103 87 103 | | | W HEMIS. | 116 | 213 1,585 | 513 663 771 779 656 Canada | 39 | 35 127 | 91 98 88 109 96 Mexico | 11 | 32 327 | 177 249 118 87 198 Haiti | 15 | 3 148 | 43 117 97 34 17 Jamaica | 21 | 6 74 | 63 30 56 74 68 Brazil | 1 | 89 368 | 12 0 187 295 0 Peru | 0 | 5 77 | 3 34 42 25 161 | | | Total | 543 | 482 3,201 | 2,149 2,075 1,783 2,009 2,137 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census 2/ |2,972 4/| 3,311 | 2,523 2,443 2,113 2,300 2,532 Diff. 3/ |294 5/| 110 | 373 367 329 291 396 ============================================================================== Note: the "U.S. Export Sales Report" reports sales and shipments in product weight. The milled equivalent total may vary significantly from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales Report," FAS, USDA. Columns labeled "as of" represent combined exports plus sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census Bureau rice export total (reported on a milled equivalent basis) is the official export total. 3/ The "U.S. Export Sales Report" does not include U.S. Government exports under under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 4/ USDA forecast, milled equivalent. 5/ The average difference between the Census and the "Export Sales Report" for 1990/91-1994/95. Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present ============================================================================== Month | U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 4/ or | ------------------------- --------------------------------------- marketing | LG 3/ MG 3/ Parboiled 100% 5% par- 15% 35% A.1 5/ year 1/ | Houston Calif. Houston grade B boiled broken broken special ============================================================================== | $/metric ton 6/ 1986/87 | 240 282 311 190 171 173 154 122 1987/88 | 421 366 486 273 261 256 236 204 1988/89 | 324 361 386 292 284 275 256 232 1989/90 | 342 352 400 292 259 262 214 172 1990/91 | 331 347 400 296 277 261 213 169 1991/92 | 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 | 322 383 349 244 227 217 193 163 | Aug '93 | 287 342 331 218 214 196 179 156 Sep '93 | 287 342 331 216 213 192 177 158 Oct '93 | 338 342 375 272 222 237 207 162 Nov '93 | 505 408 536 337 264 288 242 167 Dec '93 | 551 485 573 330 272 281 234 156 Jan '94 | 551 485 595 376 272 305 241 151 Feb '94 | 551 485 595 390 266 313 238 155 Mar '94 | 546 485 579 330 248 240 207 155 Apr '94 | 496 507 540 331 238 242 205 157 May '94 | 423 540 472 259 235 213 190 160 Jun '94 | 386 507 444 232 228 200 186 165 Jul '94 | 342 480 394 237 251 211 197 178 1993/94 | 439 451 480 294 244 243 208 160 | Aug '94 | 313 428 353 259 271 237 222 200 Sep '94 | 309 397 344 267 265 246 233 210 Oct '94 | 304 397 331 272 262 249 238 216 Nov '94 | 298 397 331 272 263 249 236 215 Dec '94 | 298 397 331 270 259 250 237 222 Jan '95 | 298 366 331 282 264 265 252 232 Feb '95 | 298 358 342 289 266 270 255 226 Mar '95 | 298 353 342 292 269 272 253 222 Apr '95 | 298 353 342 290 269 271 254 226 May '95 | 311 353 346 299 274 279 262 239 Jun '95 | 358 353 380 333 305 314 397 276 Jul '95 | 392 353 406 353 341 335 321 297 1994/95 | 314 375 348 290 276 270 263 232 | Aug '95 | 386 364 419 346 343 327 310 288 Sep '95 7/| 375 364 419 359 347 337 312 283 ============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent. 4/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. embassy, Bangkok. 5/ 100 percent broken. 6/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 7/ Preliminary data. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1989/90 to 1994/95 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1995/96 Item | 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 | 1994/95 2/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN | | | Million acres | Planted | 2.031 2.129 2.113 2.408 2.102 | 2.410 2.373 Harvested | 1.998 2.065 2.023 2.372 2.028 | 2.379 2.328 | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 5,464 5,221 5,395 5,397 5,082 | 5,609 5,513 | Million hundredweight | Beg. stocks | 15.4 13.3 11.5 13.0 21.6 | 15.1 14.5 Production | 109.2 107.8 109.1 128.0 103.1 | 133.4 128.3 Imports | 4.0 4.3 4.7 5.4 6.2 | 7.1 8.1 Total supply| 128.6 125.4 125.4 146.4 130.9 | 155.6 150.9 | | Dom. use 3/ | 55.6 57.8 61.4 60.8 67.3 | 56.1 65.0 Exports | 60.7 56.0 51.0 64.0 48.6 | 85.0 70.0 Total use | 116.3 113.8 112.4 124.8 115.9 | 141.1 135.0 | | End. stocks | 12.3 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.0 | 14.5 15.9 | Percent | Stocks-use | 10.6 10.1 11.6 17.3 12.9 | 10.3 11.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN | | Million Acres | Planted | 0.700 0.768 0.771 0.768 0.818 | 0.943 0.792 Harvested | 0.689 0.758 0.758 0.760 0.805 | 0.937 0.783 | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 6,579 6,370 6,627 6,795 6,590 | 6,866 6,822 | Million hundredweight | Beg. stocks | 9.0 11.6 11.7 12.9 15.8 | 10.0 15.8 Production | 45.3 48.3 50.2 51.6 53.0 | 64.3 53.4 Imports | 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 | 0.9 0.9 Total supply| 54.7 60.4 62.5 64.8 70.9 | 75.9 70.6 | | Dom. use 3/ | 26.7 33.8 34.1 35.9 34.2 | 45.1 40.2 Exports | 16.4 15.0 15.4 13.0 26.6 | 15.0 21.0 Total use | 43.0 48.8 49.5 48.9 60.9 | 60.1 61.2 | | End. stocks | 11.6 11.7 13.0 15.8 10.0 | 15.8 9.4 | Percent | Stocks-use | 27.0 23.9 26.3 32.3 16.4 | 26.3 15.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ End. stocks | | difference 1/| 2.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 2.0 | 1.1 0.7 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the totals for all types in table 1. 2/ Projected. 3/ Includes residual. End-end-end