HDR1011800201501012951600 RICE OUTLOOK October 12, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is published monthly (except January) by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. RCS-1095. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS: o USDA forecasts the 1995 U.S. rice crop at 177.6 million cwt (rough), down 2 percent from last month's forecast, and down 10 percent from last year's record 197.8 million cwt. o USDA raised its projected range for the 1995/96 season average farm price by $0.25 from last month's forecast, to $7.00 to 8.00 per cwt due to the reduced U.S. crop outlook and strong international demand. o USDA forecasts 1995/96 U.S. rice ending stocks at a tight 25.1 million cwt (rough), down 20 percent from a year earlier. o September floods in Thailand have lowered crop expectations for the main season crop. However, total projected 1995/96 production is revised downward only 2 percent as an anticipated larger second crop can make up for some of the main-season losses. o India's projected 1995 rice exports have been raised 0.5 million tons to 3.3 million, displacing the United States as the world's second largest rice exporter despite record U.S. exports of 3.1 million tons. o USDA revised upward (for the sixth consecutive month) its estimate of 1995 rice trade to a record 19.4 million tons on the strength of continued strong buying by China and Indonesia, as well as large, predominantly non- commercial, expected imports by North Korea. NEAR-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK REMAINS BULLISH Continued strong world import demand and diminished U.S. crop prospects are expected to continue to support U.S. farm prices through the first half of 1995/96 (August-July). The 1995/96 season average farm price is forecast at $7.00 to 8.00 per cwt, compared with 1994/95's $6.74. USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported September's average monthly farm price at a preliminary $7.70 per cwt. NASS also revised the August estimate to $7.64, up from a preliminary estimate of $7.33. With exports accounting for nearly half of total disappearance, global rice production and consumption will play an important role for U.S. farm prices in 1995/96. Internationally traded rice prices are projected to remain strong into 1996, supported by large Asian demand. U.S. long-grain export prices moved higher due to strong exports, tight long-grain supplies, and higher international prices. U.S. f.o.b., No. 2, 4-percent broken (high-quality long-grain) offer quotes out of Houston jumped to $430 per ton in early October from $375 in mid-September. Similar type and quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B) f.o.b. offer quotes out of Bangkok are at $393 per ton, up from $363 in September and $346 August. The last time that Thai f.o.b. offer quotes for 100 percent, grade B, exceeded $390 was in November, 1981. The recent strength in U.S. export prices has pushed the price premium of U.S. rice (U.S. No. 2, 4-percent broken, f.o.b. Gulf port) over Thai rice (100 percent, Grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) to $37 per ton. However, due to quality assurances and reliable shipping and delivery, U.S. rice is still competitive in international markets with a $30-50 premium over Thai rice. Limited Asian supplies prior to the 1995 main season harvests in November-December are expected to maintain the United States' competitive edge, particularly in Western Hemisphere and European markets. INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND PRODUCTION OUTLOOK FOR 1995/96 World import demand is projected up 21 percent to a record 19.4 million tons in 1995. The record demand, the traditional late-season stock drawdown for Northern Hemisphere producers, and recent reports of weather-related crop damage in several major producer and consumer countries (e.g., Japan, North Korea, South Korea, and Thailand) continue to tighten the international long- grain supply situation and to support prices. In recent years it has been rare to find a country with annual rice imports in excess of 1 million tons. In 1992, a year of very weak demand, Iran led world imports with 926,000 tons. In 1993 and 1994 a single country imported rice in excess of 1 million tons (Iran in 1993 and Japan in 1994). However, in 1995 there are two countries with projected exports greater than 2 million tons and another three countries near or surpassing 1 million tons. Import demand in 1995 is led by Indonesia with projected record imports of 2.6 million tons (revised up from 2.2 million tons last month), followed closely by China at a projected record 2.0 million tons. Other major importers include Bangladesh and Iran with projected imports of 1.1 and 1.4 million tons, respectively. Projected imports by North Korea have been revised higher to 950,000 tons (500,000 tons from Japan), adding to 1995's record demand. Saudi Arabia and Brazil represent strong steady markets with projected imports of 750,000 and 700,000 tons, respectively. India is projected to export 3.3 million tons of rice in 1995, more than five times its 1994 volume, and easily surpassing the previous record of 919,000 tons exported in 1980. The dramatic rise is projected to push India into second place as an exporter, just ahead of the United States' 3.1 million tons. Thailand is projected to be the largest exporter in 1995 with 5.5 million tons, the most since a record 6.0 million in 1989. Most of India's rice exports are low-quality that do not compete directly with U.S. exports. However, the tremendous jump in export volume has had important implications for the international market structure. Without enormous quantities of Indian rice pouring into the international market in 1995 to fill a void left by China, Thailand, and Vietnam, international prices would have climbed significantly higher than those currently witnessed. (Look for a special article on India's rice export situation in the forthcoming issue of the Rice Situation and Outlook Yearbook released in November.) Vietnam is projected to export 2.0 million tons in 1995, matching 1994's estimated record. However, China has monopolized Vietnam's exportable surplus, limiting availability to non-Chinese destinations. Burma is expected to achieve its largest exports in 30 years at 1.1 million tons on the strength of rising production. Finally, Pakistan's projected 1995 exports of 1.1 million tons round out the top six exporting countries which, together, account for over 16 million tons or 83 percent of world rice exports. Early projections for 1996 world trade are at 16.4 million tons, down more than 15 percent from 1995's record. Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, Iran, and North Korea account for the decrease as their combined 1996 imports are projected to decline to only 4.2 million from 8.3 million tons in 1995. Despite the projected decline in 1996 world import demand, world trade is still projected at its second highest level while world stocks are projected at their tightest since 1976/77. This tight supply situation suggests that international prices continue to be very sensitive to any production shortfall from a major exporting or consuming nation as exhibited by price run-ups on reports of flood damage in Thailand. Total 1995/96 world production (milled basis) is projected at 357.1 million tons, down 3.4 million from last year's record. Global consumption is projected at a record 363.0 million tons in 1995/96, exceeding projected production and causing global stocks to decline nearly 6 million tons to 42.8 million. USDA projects India will produce a 1995/96 crop of 79 million tons (milled). Although down from last year's record 81.6 million, the crop would still add to India's grain surplus and permit expanded exports. Bangladesh is projected to produce 18 million tons in 1995/96, up sharply from last year's poor harvest of only 16.6 million tons. The increased production is expected to reduce Bangladesh's import needs to only 150,000 tons in 1996. China's projected 1995 rice crop is revised upward to 124.0 million tons based on recently released offical total grain area data that suggest 1995 rice area of 30.7 million hectares. In 1994 China produced 123.2 million tons on 30.2 million hectares. The 1995 crop is expected to reverse a 2-year trend of declining area and production. However, it is not yet clear whether this signals an increased internal production response to high domestic prices with lower future import needs. China's rice import demand is projected at 1.5 million tons in 1996. In Southeast Asia, planting and rainfall were normal through August for most producing countries. Record production is projected for Burma, the Philippines, and Vietnam on the strength of expanded area. However, recent floods damaged crops in Thailand, while significant variability in the timing of rainfall has hurt rain-fed crops in Indonesia. Thailand's 1995 rice crop projection has been revised downward 0.25 million tons to 13.85 million to account for potential crop damage and yield reduction after heavy rainfall in early September caused severe flooding in northern Thailand. The Government of Thailand has not released an assessment of flood damage to the main season crop, although trade reports of losses range from 500,000 to 800,000 tons (milled). However, it is likely that a significant part of flood-related losses would be made up by expanded second-crop rice production (planted in January-February and harvested in May). But in the short term, crop damage in Thailand translates directly into diminished export availability because stocks are currently at low levels. A major factor behind Indonesia's record import demand in 1995 is a third consecutive year of declining production, which has left domestic supplies signficantly short of demand, and preserved the need for large imports in 1996 (projected at 1.5 million tons). Indonesia's 1995 rice crop is projected at 29.9 million tons, compared with a drought-reduced 30.3 million in 1994, and the record of 31.4 million in 1992. Indonesia's large and rapidly growing population (with an annual per capita consumption rate of 161 kilograms) ensures that any production shortfall will be translated into imports. U.S. SITUATION AND OUTLOOK: 1995/96 Marketing Year Production Forecast Down Based on conditions in early October, USDA forecasts the 1995 U.S. rice crop at 177.6 million cwt, down 2 percent from the September crop estimate, and down 10 percent from 1994's record 197.8 million. National average yields are forecast at 5,710 pounds per acre, 4 percent below last year's record 5,964 pounds. Rice plantings are currently forecast at 3.165 million acres (June 30 Acreage report), down 5.6 percent from 1994. A 5-percent acreage reduction program and lower farm prices in 1994/95 are responsible for the reduced 1995 planting estimate. A breakdown of 1995 U.S. rice production by type suggests a 6-percent decrease in long grain production to 125.4 million cwt and a 19-percent decrease in short and medium grain production to 52.2 million cwt (table 6). U.S. rice production prospects diminished significantly during August due to prolonged, high temperatures covering most of the Gulf coast and Delta growing regions. This resulted in less than optimal conditions for head filling, and led to reductions in yields across the affected regions. To date, Arkansas and Missouri rice crops appear to have incurred the least heat-related damage. Rice harvesting is underway in all of the major producing States. As of October 10, 79 percent of the U.S. crop was harvested, compared with 88 percent last year and the 5-year average of 78 percent. Rice farmers in Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi have nearly finished harvesting. The Arkansas harvest is 82 percent complete, and the California harvest is only 25 percent finished. On September 17, USDA released its final national average crop condition index for rice. The crop was rated at 101.1, compared with 110.7 last year, and 108.7 on August 6. Only 66 percent of the crop is rated good to excellent (down from 79 percent on August 6), while 34 percent is rated poor to fair (up from 21 percent on August 6). Last year's record yield was associated with a final crop condition rating of 90 percent good to excellent and only 10 percent poor to fair. U.S. rice exports in 1995/96 are forecast at 88 million cwt based on projected available U.S. supplies, continued strong international demand, and a competitive U.S. price. Latin America, the Middle East, and Europe are expected to remain important markets for U.S. rice. Rough rice exports are expected to decline to 8 million cwt, compared with 18.5 million last year as strong international demand and limited U.S. supplies place a premium on domestic milling. Lower production and continued strong exports are expected to reduce 1995/96 U.S. rice ending stocks to a tight 25.1 million cwt (rough), down 20 percent from a year earlier. This represents only 13.1 percent of total use, the lowest since 1980/81. Smaller long grain production is expected to be partially offset by a 16- percent reduction in exports. However, sharply higher domestic demand is expected to lower long-grain ending stocks to 14.6 million cwt or only 11.0 percent of use. Medium grain exports are projected up only marginally at 20 million cwt. This projection is bolstered by expected Japanese and South Korean purchases under the minimum access requirement of the World Trade Organization. Record domestic use is expected to signficantly lower ending stocks to 9.8 million cwt, or 16.6 percent of use. U.S. SITUATION AND OUTLOOK: 1994/95 Marketing Year Wrap-Up Final U.S. rice exports are estimated at a record 100.9 million cwt, including a record 81 million cwt of long grain, and a record 18.5 million cwt of rough rice. ****************************************************************************** * INFORMATION CONTACTS AT THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE: * * * * Randall D. Schnepf, international and domestic (202) 501-8513 * * * * Next month's Rice Outlook will be available on November 13, 1995. * ****************************************************************************** Notes: Printed copies of the 1995 Rice Yearbook will be released in November to all ERS/NASS subscribers to the former Rice Situation and Outlook. Tables: Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1989/90 to present Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1993/94 to present Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1993/94 to present Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1989/90 to present 1/ Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1989/90 to 1995/96. Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1989/90 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1995/96 Item | 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 | 1994/95 2/ ============================================================================== TOTAL RICE | Percent | ARP | 25 20 5 0 5 | 0 5 Area | Million acres | Planted | 2.731 2.897 2.884 3.176 2.920 | 3.353 3.165 Harvested | 2.687 2.823 2.781 3.132 2.833 | 3.316 3.111 | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 5,749 5,529 5,731 5,736 5,510 | 5,964 5,710 | Million hundredweight | Beg. stocks | 26.7 26.3 24.6 27.4 39.4 | 25.8 31.4 Production | 154.5 156.1 159.4 179.7 156.1 | 197.8 177.6 Imports | 4.4 4.8 5.3 6.1 6.9 | 7.3 8.3 Total supply| 185.6 187.2 189.2 213.2 202.5 | 230.9 217.3 | | Food | 60.2 63.7 67.1 69.0 71.2 | 74.0 77.0 Seed | 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.6 4.2 | 4.1 4.1 Brewer's use | 15.4 15.3 15.4 15.1 15.1 | 15.1 15.1 Residual 3/ | 3.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 11.0 | 5.4 8.0 Domestic use| 82.2 91.6 95.4 96.7 101.5 | 98.6 104.2 | | Exports | 77.1 71.0 66.4 77.0 75.2 | 100.9 88.0 Rough | 4.8 6.3 5.1 3.6 | 18.5 8.0 Mld(rgh eq)| 66.2 60.1 71.9 71.5 | 82.4 80.0 Total use | 159.3 162.6 161.8 173.7 176.7 | 199.5 192.2 | | End. stocks | 26.3 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 | 31.4 25.1 CCC inv. | 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 | 0.1 0.0 Free stocks | 26.3 24.5 27.0 39.3 25.8 | 31.3 25.1 | Percent | Stocks-use | 16.5 15.1 16.9 22.7 14.6 | 15.7 13.1 | | Average farm | $/cwt | 7.00 price 4/ | 7.35 6.68 7.58 5.89 7.98 | 6.74 -8.00 | | Average | Percent | milling rate | 72.6 72.0 70.5 70.0 74.0 | 73.0 72.0 ============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Projected. 3/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. 4/ Marketing year weighted average price received. Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1993/94 to present ============================================================================= | 1995/96 1994/95 1993/94 | -------------------- ------------------- ------------------- Month | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================= Aug | 7.64 9,935 6.87 11,534 5.19 12,411 Sep | 7.70 1/ 6.89 12,610 5.21 12,950 Oct | 6.47 13,381 6.10 14,804 Nov | 6.53 15,470 8.06 15,228 Dec | 6.56 17,479 8.91 12,722 Jan | 6.78 17,781 8.98 14,106 Feb | 6.71 16,050 10.10 9,750 Mar | 6.64 17,565 10.20 11,594 Apr | 6.70 12,425 9.93 8,113 May | 6.75 16,848 10.00 7,854 Jun | 7.03 13,793 8.88 8,708 Jul | 7.17 9,847 7.80 7,986 | Average 2/ | 7.64 9,935 6.74 14,565 7.98 11,352 Total 3/ | 7.00-8.00 4/ 174,783 136,226 ============================================================================= 1/ Preliminary midmonth price estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1995/96 is for August to current month. 3/ Total volume marketed. 4/ 1995/96 price range is a USDA projection. Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1992/93 to present 1/ ============================================================================ | 1995/96 1994/95 1993/94 Month 2/| -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ============================================================================ | $/cwt Aug | 7.93 6.22 6.06 5.33 5.64 5.33 4.11 3.76 3.57 Sep | 8.02 6.30 6.13 5.62 5.67 5.36 4.20 3.84 3.65 Oct 3/| 8.59 6.63 6.46 5.74 5.61 5.32 4.88 4.48 4.26 Nov | 5.85 5.59 5.31 6.56 6.15 5.86 Dec | 5.82 5.59 5.31 7.26 6.85 6.53 Jan | 6.21 5.62 5.58 7.35 7.00 6.73 Feb | 6.41 5.70 5.66 7.49 7.31 7.20 Mar | 6.41 5.74 5.70 7.29 7.30 7.18 Apr | 6.41 5.74 5.70 6.48 7.25 7.11 May | 6.56 5.87 5.82 5.91 7.19 7.03 Jun | 7.38 6.03 6.00 5.32 7.05 6.87 Jul | 7.63 6.10 6.06 5.22 6.27 6.12 | Average 2/| 8.18 6.38 6.22 6.28 5.74 5.59 6.00 6.20 6.01 ============================================================================ 1/ Loan rate basis (rough); repayment rates for 1989-94 crops are the higher of the world price or 70 percent of the loan rate for the specified class of rice. 2/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. 3/ Preliminary. The 1995/96 average is for August to current month. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1989/90 to present 1/ ============================================================================== |1995/96 |1994/95 | Country |--------|--------1994/95 |1993/94 1992/93 1991/92 1990/91 1989/90 or | as of | as of | region |09/28/95|09/28/94 Final | Final Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== | | | 1,000 metric tons Eur. Union | 148 | 166 474 | 362 362 263 383 359 O W Eur | 9 | 13 22 | 18 47 44 46 40 Turkey | 68 | 23 259 | 67 191 154 153 138 East Eur. | 27 | 7 58 | 10 46 39 30 20 FSU | 9 | 4 18 | 4 15 42 0 0 | | | Japan | 2 | 0 2 | 568 0 0 0 0 | | | OTH ASIA/ME| 210 | 121 527 | 349 438 228 304 613 Iran | 93 | 42 191 | 121 130 7 0 0 Iraq | 0 | 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 299 S. Arabia | 28 | 48 153 | 157 205 146 180 145 | | | AFRICA | 156 | 108 257 | 258 315 244 316 299 Cote d'Iv.| 81 | 39 57 | 67 92 56 78 35 Senegal | 15 | 7 28 | 75 87 37 62 57 RSA | 36 | 47 113 | 90 111 103 87 103 | | | W HEMIS. | 190 | 307 1,585 | 513 663 771 779 656 Canada | 45 | 40 127 | 91 98 88 109 96 Mexico | 26 | 54 327 | 177 249 118 87 198 Haiti | 38 | 3 148 | 43 117 97 34 17 Jamaica | 35 | 21 74 | 63 30 56 74 68 Brazil | 1 | 126 368 | 12 0 187 295 0 | | | Total | 819 | 749 3,201 | 2,149 2,075 1,783 2,009 2,137 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census 2/ |2,841 4/| 3,324 | 2,523 2,443 2,113 2,300 2,532 Diff. 3/ | 294 5/| 123 | 373 367 329 291 396 ============================================================================== Note: the "U.S. Export Sales Report" reports sales and shipments in product weight. The milled equivalent total may vary significantly from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales Report," FAS, USDA. Columns labeled "as of" represent combined exports plus sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census Bureau rice export total (reported on a milled equivalent basis) is the official export total. 3/ The "U.S. Export Sales Report" does not include U.S. Government exports under under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 4/ USDA forecast, milled equivalent. 5/ The average difference between the Census and the "Export Sales Report" for 1990/91-1994/95. Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present ============================================================================== Month | U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ or | ------------------------- --------------------------------------- marketing | LG 3/ MG 4/ Parboiled 100% 5% par- 15% 35% A.1 6/ year 1/ | Houston Calif. Houston grade B boiled broken broken special ============================================================================== | $/metric ton 7/ 1986/87 | 240 282 311 190 171 173 154 122 1987/88 | 421 366 486 273 261 256 236 204 1988/89 | 324 361 386 292 284 275 256 232 1989/90 | 342 352 400 292 259 262 214 172 1990/91 | 331 347 400 296 277 261 213 169 1991/92 | 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 | 322 383 349 244 227 217 193 163 | Aug '93 | 287 342 331 218 214 196 179 156 Sep '93 | 287 342 331 216 213 192 177 158 Oct '93 | 338 342 375 272 222 237 207 162 Nov '93 | 505 408 536 337 264 288 242 167 Dec '93 | 551 485 573 330 272 281 234 156 Jan '94 | 551 485 595 376 272 305 241 151 Feb '94 | 551 485 595 390 266 313 238 155 Mar '94 | 546 485 579 330 248 240 207 155 Apr '94 | 496 507 540 331 238 242 205 157 May '94 | 423 540 472 259 235 213 190 160 Jun '94 | 386 507 444 232 228 200 186 165 Jul '94 | 342 480 394 237 251 211 197 178 1993/94 | 439 451 480 294 244 243 208 160 | Aug '94 | 313 428 353 259 271 237 222 200 Sep '94 | 309 397 344 267 265 246 233 210 Oct '94 | 304 397 331 272 262 249 238 216 Nov '94 | 298 397 331 272 263 249 236 215 Dec '94 | 298 397 331 270 259 250 237 222 Jan '95 | 298 366 331 282 264 265 252 232 Feb '95 | 298 358 342 289 266 270 255 226 Mar '95 | 298 353 342 292 269 272 253 222 Apr '95 | 298 353 342 290 269 271 254 226 May '95 | 311 353 346 299 274 279 262 239 Jun '95 | 358 353 380 333 305 314 397 276 Jul '95 | 392 353 406 353 341 335 321 297 1994/95 | 314 375 348 290 276 270 263 232 | Aug '95 | 386 364 419 346 343 327 310 288 Sep '95 | 389 380 424 363 351 342 318 284 Oct '95 8/| 430 430 485 393 372 372 344 293 ============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. embassy, Bangkok. 6/ 100 percent broken. 7/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 8/ Preliminary data. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1989/90 to 1994/95 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1995/96 Item | 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 | 1994/95 2/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN | | | Million acres | Planted | 2.031 2.129 2.113 2.408 2.102 | 2.410 2.373 Harvested | 1.998 2.065 2.023 2.372 2.028 | 2.379 2.328 | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 5,464 5,221 5,395 5,397 5,082 | 5,609 5,387 | Million hundredweight | Beg. stocks | 15.4 13.2 11.5 13.0 21.6 | 15.1 14.5 Production | 109.2 107.8 109.1 128.0 103.1 | 133.4 125.4 Imports | 4.0 4.3 4.7 5.4 6.2 | 6.8 7.7 Total supply| 128.6 125.3 125.4 146.4 130.9 | 155.3 147.6 | | Dom. use 3/ | 54.5 57.8 61.4 60.8 67.2 | 59.8 65.0 Exports | 60.8 56.0 51.0 64.0 48.6 | 81.0 68.0 Total use | 115.3 113.8 112.4 124.8 115.8 | 140.8 133.0 | | End. stocks | 13.2 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 | 14.5 14.6 | Percent | Stocks-use | 11.5 10.1 11.6 17.3 13.0 | 10.3 11.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN | | Million acres | Planted | 0.700 0.768 0.771 0.768 0.818 | 0.943 0.792 Harvested | 0.689 0.758 0.758 0.760 0.805 | 0.937 0.783 | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 6,579 6,370 6,627 6,795 6,590 | 6,866 6,667 | Million hundredweight | Beg. stocks | 9.0 11.6 11.7 12.9 15.8 | 10.0 15.8 Production | 45.3 48.3 50.2 51.6 53.0 | 64.3 52.2 Imports | 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 | 0.5 0.6 Total supply| 55.6 60.5 62.4 64.8 70.9 | 74.5 69.0 | | Dom. use 3/ | 27.7 33.8 34.0 35.9 34.3 | 38.7 39.2 Exports | 16.3 15.0 15.4 13.0 26.6 | 19.9 20.0 Total use | 44.0 48.8 49.4 48.9 60.9 | 58.6 59.2 | | End. stocks | 11.6 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 | 15.8 9.8 | Percent | Stocks-use | 26.5 24.0 26.1 32.4 16.4 | 27.0 16.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ End. stocks | | difference 1/| 2.4 1.4 1.4 2.0 0.7 | 1.1 0.7 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the totals for all types in table 1. 2/ Projected. 3/ Includes residual. END-END-END