RICE OUTLOOK December 13, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is published monthly (except January) by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. RCS-1295. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- DECEMBER HIGHLIGHTS: o USDA has raised its projected range for the 1995/96 season average farm price by $0.25 at $7.25 to 8.25 per cwt. o USDA lowered its forecast of 1995/96 U.S. rice exports by 2 million cwt to 84 million cwt (rough), down 17 percent from a year earlier. o USDA raised its forecast of 1995/96 U.S. rice ending stocks by 2 million cwt to 25.7 million cwt (rough), down 18 percent from a year earlier. o International rice prices, supported through the summer and fall by large Asian demand and tight international supplies, are projected to weaken by early 1996 as the outlook for good harvests in Asia is expected to reduce demand and increase exportable supplies. o World trade in 1996 is projected at 16.2 million tons, unchanged from last month but down 17 percent from 1995 as Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, and Iran significantly reduce import volume. o A major uncertainty for 1996 world trade is China. A significant importer in 1995, China is projected to harvest a large 1995 crop, reducing import needs for 1996. Internal production and marketing changes make it unlikely that China will resume traditional large exports of low-quality long grain. China's import demand for high-quality long grain is more uncertain. USDA projects China's 1996 imports down significantly, but still important, at 1.0 million tons. o The 1995 Rice Situation and Outlook Yearbook will be available next week. The yearbook contains an in-depth outlook report, special articles on India, U.S. rice imports, and U.S. cost of production for rice, plus updated historical data tables covering many aspects of U.S. and international rice marketing and production. NEAR-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK STEADY TO LOWER Continued strong world import demand, tight international long-grain supplies (particularly high-quality long grain) and high prices, and diminished U.S. crop prospects are expected to support U.S. long-grain export and farm prices through the end of 1995. However, the prospect of good Asian harvests should prevent any further significant price gains. The 1995/96 season average farm price is forecast at $7.25 to 8.25 per cwt, compared with 1994/95's $6.78. Farm prices must average $7.47 for the remainder of the crop year for the season average farm price to equal the midpoint ($7.75) of the projected range. Through the first 4 months, the U.S. monthly farm price has averaged an estimated $8.31 per cwt. USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported November's average monthly farm price at a preliminary $8.78 per cwt. NASS also revised the October estimate to $8.77, up from a preliminary estimate of $8.38. U.S. f.o.b., No. 2, 4-percent broken (high-quality long-grain) offer quotes out of Houston climbed to $441 per ton in November, up from an average of $430 in October. Similar type and quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B) f.o.b. offer quotes out of Bangkok have weakened substantially, falling to $354 per ton from an average of $392 in October. The recent strength in U.S. export prices and the weakness in Thai prices have pushed the high-quality long-grain price premium of U.S. rice over Thai rice to $87 per ton, up from $38 in October and the largest since July 1994. Traditionally, U.S. rice is thought to be competitive in international markets with a premium of $30-50 over Thai rice. The widening premium will likely weaken interest in U.S. rice from price-sensitive markets. Recent purchases by Japan (50,100 tons during November 24-30; 132.1 tons cumulative in 1995/96) have helped push U.S. medium grain prices to parity with U.S. f.o.b. long-grain price quotes. The rapid rise in international demand for long-grain rice had lifted the long-grain price premium over medium-grain to $40 per ton in July. In 1994/95 medium-grain rice averaged $61 per ton above long-grain prices. LONG-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK WEAKER Internationally traded rice prices are projected to weaken substantially in 1996, as good harvests in most Asian producing countries are projected to weaken demand while increasing export competition. Both Indonesia and China have stopped or significantly slowed their rice buying since October. China has deferred several current contracts to 1996, halting the upward momentum in international prices. Burma, Pakistan, and Thailand harvest their main-season rice crops during October-December. Thai rice competes in all classes of rice markets: high-, intermediate-, and low-quality. Burma competes almost entirely in the lower- quality markets (25-percent or higher brokens). Pakistan exports both high- quality basmati aromatic rice as well as medium- to lower-quality nonaromatic rice. The timing of the projected price weakening may hinge on China's import demand response to Vietnam's December-January harvest of its 10th month crop (representing approximately 37 percent of annual production). In 1995, China's huge import demand captured nearly the entire Vietnamese crop, leaving the international market short of intermediate- and low-quality rice supplies. This action sustained international prices into the summer and left importers, particularly Indonesia, hurrying to find alternate sources of supply. USDA projects China's import demand substantially lower for 1996, diminishing the likelihood that China will again monopolize Vietnamese rice exports. As a result, some Vietnamese rice is expected to enter international markets in early 1996, adding to growing pressure on international prices. Thailand is projected to produce a near-record second crop (harvested in May- June) in 1996, further pressuring international prices. Thailand's second crop is entirely irrigated and destined principally for export markets. INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND PRODUCTION OUTLOOK FOR 1995/96 Total 1995/96 world production (milled basis) is projected at 359.5 million tons, up 1.5 million from last month but down 1.2 million from last year's record. Global consumption is projected at a record 365.2 million tons, exceeding projected production and causing global stocks to decline 5.8 million tons to 42.8 million. World trade for 1996 is projected at 16.2 million tons, unchanged from last month but down more than 17 percent from 1995's record. Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, Iran, and North Korea account for the decrease as their combined 1996 imports are projected to decline to only 3.7 million tons from 8.4 million in 1995. Despite the projected decline, world trade is still projected at its second highest level while world stocks are projected at their tightest since 1976/77. This tight supply situation suggests that international prices continue to be very sensitive to any production shortfall from a major exporting or consuming nation. Thailand's main-season output is projected at 11.6 million tons (milled), down 3 percent from 1994's record due to August-September flooding. But the crop is still forecast above the previous 8-year average of 11.2 million tons. Minimal 1994/95 ending stocks in Thailand, estimated at 410,000 tons, and a reduced U.S. crop may keep high-quality stocks fairly tight until Thailand's second crop is harvested in May. Thailand's total rice crop for 1995/96 is projected down less than 2 percent as current high market prices are expected to stimulate expanded area and near-record production for the second crop (planted in January-February, harvested in May-June). USDA projects India will produce a 1995/96 crop of 79 million tons (milled). Although down from last year's record 81.3 million, the crop would still add to India's grain surplus and permit large exports in 1996. Bangladesh is projected to produce 18.5 million tons in 1995/96, up 500,000 tons from last month and up sharply from last year's drought-reduced 16.6 million tons. The increased production is expected to reduce Bangladesh's import needs to only 150,000 tons in 1996. China is projected to produce a 1995 rice crop of 125.0 million tons, up from 123.2 million tons produced in 1994. The 1995 crop is expected to reverse a 2-year trend of declining area and production. However, it is not yet clear whether this signals an increased internal production response to high domestic prices with lower future import needs. China's rice import demand is projected at 1.0 million tons in 1996. Record production is projected for Burma, the Philippines, and Vietnam on the strength of expanded area. However, recent weather problems and strong demand have increased the Philippines' 1996 import needs to a projected 500,000 tons, up 67 percent from 1995. Significant variability in the timing of rainfall has hurt rain-fed crops in Indonesia and contributed to a projected third consecutive year of declining production. Domestic supplies are expected to fall significantly short of demand, preserving the need for large imports in 1996 (projected at 1.5 million tons). Indonesia's 1995 rice crop is projected at 29.9 million tons, compared with a drought-reduced 30.3 million in 1994, and the record 31.4 million in 1992. Indonesia's large and rapidly growing population (with an annual per capita rice consumption of 161 kilograms) ensures that any production shortfall will be translated into imports. RECAP OF 1995 WORLD TRADE World import demand in 1995 is unchanged from last month's projected record 19.5 million tons, but up 22 percent from 1994. Import demand is led by Indonesia with projected record imports of 2.8 million tons, followed closely by China at a projected record 1.8 million tons. Other major importers include Bangladesh and Iran, each with projected imports of 1.4 million tons. Projected imports by North Korea of 950,000 tons (500,000 tons from Japan), add to 1995's record demand. Saudi Arabia and Brazil represent strong steady markets with projected imports of 750,000 and 700,000 tons, respectively. Thailand is projected to be the largest exporter in 1995 with 5.6 million tons, the most since a record 6.0 million in 1989. India is projected to export 3.5 million tons of rice in 1995, placing second ahead of the United States with 3.0 million tons. India's 1995 projected export volume of 3.5 million tons would be the largest rice exports ever by any country other than Thailand. However, most of India's rice exports are low-quality that do not compete directly with U.S. exports. Vietnam is projected to export 2.0 million tons in 1995, matching 1994's estimated record. Pakistan is projected to export a record 1.4 million tons in 1995. Finally, Burma is expected to export 800,000 tons (largest in 20 years) on the strength of rising production. The top six exporting countries account for 16.3 million tons or 85 percent of world rice exports. U.S. SITUATION AND OUTLOOK: 1995/96 Marketing Year Production Forecast Down Based on conditions in early November, USDA forecasts the 1995 U.S. rice crop at 174.2 million cwt, down 2 percent from the October crop estimate, and down 12 percent from 1994's record 197.8 million. National average yields are forecast at 5,635 pounds per acre, 5.5 percent below last year's record. Rice plantings are currently forecast at 3.120 million acres, down from the June 30 Acreage report estimate of 3.165 million, and down 7 percent from 1994. A 5-percent acreage reduction program and lower farm prices in 1994/95 are responsible for the reduced 1995 planting estimate. U.S. rice production prospects diminished significantly during August due to prolonged, high temperatures covering most of the Gulf coast and Delta growing regions. This resulted in less than optimal conditions for head filling, and led to reductions in yields across the affected regions. California also experienced less than ideal conditions as an exceptionally cool, wet spring delayed plantings and led to a slow start. Unfavorable growing conditions persisted in California through much of the summer. A breakdown of 1995 U.S. rice production by type suggests an 8-percent decrease in long grain production to 122.2 million cwt and a 19-percent decrease in short and medium grain production to 52.1 million cwt (table 5). U.S. rice exports in 1995/96 are forecast at 84 million cwt based on projected available U.S. supplies and continued strong international demand. U.S. exports were lowered 2 million cwt from a month earlier in anticipation of a projected widening price premium with foreign competitors, principally Thailand, and a slower-than-expected pace of exports during the first 5 months of the marketing year. Latin America, the Middle East, and Europe are expected to remain important markets for U.S. rice. Rough rice exports are expected to decline to 8 million cwt, compared with 18.5 million last year as strong international demand and limited U.S. supplies place a premium on domestic milling. Lower production and continued strong exports are expected to reduce 1995/96 U.S. rice ending stocks to 25.7 million cwt (rough), down 24 percent from a year earlier. This represents 13.7 percent of total use, the lowest since 1980/81. Smaller long grain production is expected to be more than offset by a 21- percent reduction in exports. Long-grain ending stocks are projected up at 15.3 million cwt or 11.9 percent of use, despite sharply higher domestic demand. Medium grain exports are projected up only marginally at 20 million cwt. This projection is bolstered by expected Japanese purchases under the minimum access requirement of the World Trade Organization. Record domestic use is expected to significantly lower ending stocks to 9.7 million cwt, or 16.4 percent of use. ****************************************************************************** * INFORMATION CONTACTS AT THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE: * * Randall D. Schnepf, international and domestic (202) 501-8513 * * Next month's Rice Outlook will be available on January 12, 1995. * ****************************************************************************** Notes: Printed copies of the 1995 Rice Yearbook released in late November will be available next week to all ERS/NASS subscribers to the former Rice Situation and Outlook. For information, call: (800) 999-6779; for areas outside of the United States or Canada use (703) 834-0125. Tables: Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1989/90 to present Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1993/94 to present Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1993/94 to present Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1989/90 to present 1/ Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1989/90 to 1995/96. Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1989/90 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1995/96 Item | 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 | 1994/95 2/ ============================================================================== | | TOTAL RICE | Percent | ARP | 25 20 5 0 5 | 0 5 Area | Million acres | Planted | 2.731 2.897 2.884 3.176 2.920 | 3.353 3.120 Harvested | 2.687 2.823 2.781 3.132 2.833 | 3.316 3.092 | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 5,749 5,529 5,731 5,736 5,510 | 5,964 5,635 | Million hundredweight | Beg. stocks | 26.7 26.3 24.6 27.4 39.4 | 25.8 31.4 Production | 154.5 156.1 159.4 179.7 156.1 | 197.8 174.2 Imports | 4.4 4.8 5.3 6.1 6.9 | 7.3 8.3 Total supply| 185.6 187.2 189.2 213.2 202.5 | 230.9 213.9 | | Food | 60.2 63.7 67.1 69.0 71.2 | 74.0 77.0 Seed | 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.6 4.2 | 4.1 4.1 Brewer's use | 15.4 15.3 15.4 15.1 15.1 | 15.1 15.1 Residual 3/ | 3.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 11.0 | 5.4 8.0 Domestic use| 82.2 91.6 95.4 96.7 101.5 | 98.6 104.2 | | Exports | 77.1 71.0 66.4 77.0 75.2 | 100.9 84.0 Rough | 4.8 6.3 5.1 3.6 | 18.5 8.0 Mld(rgh eq)| 66.2 60.1 71.9 71.5 | 82.4 76.0 Total use | 159.3 162.6 161.8 173.7 176.7 | 199.5 188.2 | | End. stocks | 26.3 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 | 31.4 25.7 CCC inv. | 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 | 0.1 0.0 Free stocks | 26.3 24.5 27.0 39.3 25.8 | 31.3 25.7 | Percent | Stocks-use | 16.5 15.1 16.9 22.7 14.6 | 15.7 13.7 Average farm | $/cwt | 7.25 price 4/ | 7.35 6.68 7.58 5.89 7.98 | 6.78 -8.25 Average | Percent | milling rate | 72.6 72.0 70.5 70.0 74.0 | 73.0 72.0 ============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Projected. 3/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. 4/ Marketing year weighted average price received. Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1993/94 to present ============================================================================= | 1995/96 1994/95 1993/94 | -------------------- ------------------- ------------------- Month | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================= Aug | 7.64 9,935 6.87 11,534 5.19 12,411 Sep | 7.92 11,898 6.89 12,610 5.21 12,950 Oct | 8.77 12,468 6.47 13,381 6.10 14,804 Nov | 8.78 1/ 6.53 15,470 8.06 15,228 Dec | 6.56 17,479 8.91 12,722 Jan | 6.78 17,781 8.98 14,106 Feb | 6.71 16,050 10.10 9,750 Mar | 6.64 17,565 10.20 11,594 Apr | 6.70 12,425 9.93 8,113 May | 6.75 16,848 10.00 7,854 Jun | 7.03 13,793 8.88 8,708 Jul | 7.17 9,847 7.80 7,986 | Average 2/ | 8.15 11,434 6.78 14,565 7.98 11,352 Total 3/ | 7.25-8.25 4/ 174,783 5/ 136,226 ============================================================================= 1/ Preliminary midmonth price estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1995/96 is for August to current month. 3/ Total volume marketed. 4/ 1995/96 price range is a USDA projection. 5/ Final 1994/95 marketings available in January 1996. Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1993/94 to present 1/ ============================================================================ | 1995/96 1994/95 1993/94 Month 2/| -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ============================================================================ | $/cwt Aug | 7.93 6.22 6.06 5.33 5.64 5.33 4.11 3.76 3.57 Sep | 8.02 6.30 6.13 5.62 5.67 5.36 4.20 3.84 3.65 Oct | 8.81 6.67 6.51 5.74 5.61 5.32 4.88 4.48 4.26 Nov | 8.47 6.82 6.63 5.85 5.59 5.31 6.56 6.15 5.86 Dec 3/| 8.27 7.11 6.90 5.82 5.59 5.31 7.26 6.85 6.53 Jan | 6.21 5.62 5.58 7.35 7.00 6.73 Feb | 6.41 5.70 5.66 7.49 7.31 7.20 Mar | 6.41 5.74 5.70 7.29 7.30 7.18 Apr | 6.41 5.74 5.70 6.48 7.25 7.11 May | 6.56 5.87 5.82 5.91 7.19 7.03 Jun | 7.38 6.03 6.00 5.32 7.05 6.87 Jul | 7.63 6.10 6.06 5.22 6.27 6.12 | Average 2/| 8.30 6.62 6.45 6.28 5.74 5.59 6.00 6.20 6.01 ============================================================================ 1/ Loan rate basis (rough); repayment rates for 1989-94 crops are the higher of the world price or 70 percent of the loan rate for the specified class of rice. 2/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. 3/ Preliminary. The 1995/96 average is for August to current month. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1989/90 to present 1/ ============================================================================== |1995/96 |1994/95 | Country |--------|--------1994/95 |1993/94 1992/93 1991/92 1990/91 1989/90 or | as of | as of | region |11/30/95|11/30/94 Final | Final Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== | | | 1,000 metric tons Eur. Union | 192 | 271 474 | 362 362 263 383 359 O W Eur | 12 | 18 22 | 18 47 44 46 40 Turkey | 105 | 80 259 | 67 191 154 153 138 East Eur. | 29 | 29 58 | 10 46 39 30 20 FSU | 11 | 14 18 | 4 15 42 0 0 | | | Japan | 132 | 1 2 | 568 0 0 0 0 | | | OTH ASIA/ME| 296 | 186 527 | 349 438 228 304 613 Iran | 93 | 36 191 | 121 130 7 0 0 Iraq | 0 | 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 299 S. Arabia | 83 | 74 153 | 157 205 146 180 145 | | | AFRICA | 183 | 131 257 | 258 315 244 316 299 Cote d'Iv.| 87 | 40 57 | 67 92 56 78 35 Senegal | 15 | 7 28 | 75 87 37 62 57 RSA | 41 | 67 113 | 90 111 103 87 103 | | | W HEMIS. | 347 | 792 1,585 | 513 663 771 779 656 Canada | 59 | 57 127 | 91 98 88 109 96 Mexico | 75 | 115 327 | 177 249 118 87 198 Haiti | 64 | 25 148 | 43 117 97 34 17 Jamaica | 38 | 30 74 | 63 30 56 74 68 Brazil | 2 | 369 368 | 12 0 187 295 0 | | | Total | 1,308 | 1,521 3,201 | 2,149 2,075 1,783 2,009 2,137 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census 2/ |2,743 4/| 3,324 | 2,523 2,443 2,113 2,300 2,532 Diff. 3/ |294 5/| 123 | 373 367 329 291 396 ============================================================================== Note: the "U.S. Export Sales Report" reports sales and shipments in product weight. The milled equivalent total may vary significantly from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales Report," FAS, USDA. Columns labeled "as of" represent combined exports plus sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census Bureau rice export total (reported on a milled equivalent basis) is the official export total. 3/ The "U.S. Export Sales Report" does not include U.S. Government exports under under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 4/ USDA forecast, milled equivalent. 5/ The average difference between the Census and the "Export Sales Report" for 1990/91-1994/95. Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present ============================================================================== Month | U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ or | ------------------------- --------------------------------------- marketing | LG 3/ MG 4/ Parboiled 100% 5% par- 15% 35% A.1 6/ year 1/ | Houston Calif. Houston grade B boiled broken broken special ============================================================================== | $/metric ton 7/ 1986/87 | 240 282 311 190 171 173 154 122 1987/88 | 421 366 486 273 261 256 236 204 1988/89 | 324 361 386 292 284 275 256 232 1989/90 | 342 352 400 292 259 262 214 172 1990/91 | 331 347 400 296 277 261 213 169 1991/92 | 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 | 322 383 349 244 227 217 193 163 | Aug '93 | 287 342 331 218 214 196 179 156 Sep '93 | 287 342 331 216 213 192 177 158 Oct '93 | 338 342 375 272 222 237 207 162 Nov '93 | 505 408 536 337 264 288 242 167 Dec '93 | 551 485 573 330 272 281 234 156 Jan '94 | 551 485 595 376 272 305 241 151 Feb '94 | 551 485 595 390 266 313 238 155 Mar '94 | 546 485 579 330 248 240 207 155 Apr '94 | 496 507 540 331 238 242 205 157 May '94 | 423 540 472 259 235 213 190 160 Jun '94 | 386 507 444 232 228 200 186 165 Jul '94 | 342 480 394 237 251 211 197 178 1993/94 | 439 451 480 294 244 243 208 160 | Aug '94 | 313 428 353 259 271 237 222 200 Sep '94 | 309 397 344 267 265 246 233 210 Oct '94 | 304 397 331 272 262 249 238 216 Nov '94 | 298 397 331 272 263 249 236 215 Dec '94 | 298 397 331 270 259 250 237 222 Jan '95 | 298 366 331 282 264 265 252 232 Feb '95 | 298 358 342 289 266 270 255 226 Mar '95 | 298 353 342 292 269 272 253 222 Apr '95 | 298 353 342 290 269 271 254 226 May '95 | 311 353 346 299 274 279 262 239 Jun '95 | 358 353 380 333 305 314 297 276 Jul '95 | 392 353 406 353 341 335 321 297 1994/95 | 314 375 348 290 276 270 255 232 | Aug '95 | 386 364 419 346 343 327 310 288 Sep '95 | 386 380 424 363 351 342 318 284 Oct '95 | 430 432 485 392 372 370 339 293 Nov '95 8/| 441 441 463 354 342 334 315 296 ============================================================================== NA = Not available. 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. embassy, Bangkok. 6/ 100 percent broken. 7/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 8/ Preliminary data. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1989/90 to 1994/95 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1995/96 Item | 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 | 1994/95 2/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN | | | Million acres | Planted | 2.031 2.129 2.113 2.408 2.102 | 2.410 4/ Harvested | 1.998 2.065 2.023 2.372 2.028 | 2.379 4/ | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 5,464 5,221 5,395 5,397 5,082 | 5,609 4/ | Million hundredweight | Beg. stocks | 15.4 13.2 11.5 13.0 21.6 | 15.1 14.5 Production | 109.2 107.8 109.1 128.0 103.1 | 133.4 122.2 Imports | 4.0 4.3 4.7 5.4 6.2 | 6.8 7.7 Total supply| 128.6 125.3 125.4 146.4 130.9 | 155.3 144.3 | | Dom. use 3/ | 54.5 57.8 61.4 60.8 67.2 | 59.8 65.0 Exports | 60.8 56.0 51.0 64.0 48.6 | 81.0 64.0 Total use | 115.3 113.8 112.4 124.8 115.8 | 140.8 129.0 | | End. stocks | 13.2 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 | 14.5 15.3 | Percent | Stocks-use | 11.5 10.1 11.6 17.3 13.0 | 10.3 11.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN | | Million acres | Planted | 0.700 0.768 0.771 0.768 0.818 | 0.943 4/ Harvested | 0.689 0.758 0.758 0.760 0.805 | 0.937 4/ | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 6,579 6,370 6,627 6,795 6,590 | 6,866 4/ | Million hundredweight | Beg. stocks | 9.0 11.6 11.7 12.9 15.8 | 10.0 15.8 Production | 45.3 48.3 50.2 51.6 53.0 | 64.3 52.1 Imports | 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 | 0.5 0.6 Total supply| 55.6 60.5 62.4 64.8 70.9 | 74.5 68.9 | | Dom. use 3/ | 27.7 33.8 34.0 35.9 34.3 | 38.7 39.2 Exports | 16.3 15.0 15.4 13.0 26.6 | 19.9 20.0 Total use | 44.0 48.8 49.4 48.9 60.9 | 58.6 59.2 | | End. stocks | 11.6 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 | 15.8 9.7 | Percent | Stocks-use | 26.5 24.0 26.1 32.4 16.4 | 27.0 16.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ End. stocks | | difference 1/| 2.4 1.4 1.4 2.0 0.7 | 1.1 0.7 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the totals for all types in table 1. 2/ Projected. 3/ Includes residual. 4/ USDA publishes area and yield estimates by type in January 1996. END-END-END