HDR1011800201500117961600 RICE OUTLOOK January 17, 1995 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. RCS-0196. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o USDA has raised its projected range for the 1995/96 season average farm price by $0.75 at $8.00 to 9.00 per cwt because of higher-than-expected domestic prices through the first 5 months of the marketing year and continued strong international prices. o USDA estimates the 1995 U.S. rice crop at 173.9 million cwt (rough), down slightly from November's forecast of 174.2 million, and down 12 percent from 1994's record 197.8 million cwt. o World production is projected at a record 367.4 million tons for 1995/96, up 8 million tons from last month, based principally on a 7-million-ton increase in China's crop to a record 133.0 million tons. o World trade for 1996 is projected at 17.3 million tons, down 14 percent from last year's record, but up 1.1 million tons from last month as projected exports for India, Pakistan, and Thailand are all raised on the strength of increased production forecasts. NEAR-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: STEADY The 1995/96 season average farm price (SAFP) is forecast at $8.00 to 9.00 per cwt, up substantially from 1994/95's $6.78. Continued strong world import demand, tight international long-grain supplies (particularly high-quality long grain) and high prices, and a small 1995 U.S. crop are expected to support U.S. long-grain export and farm prices into the spring. Strong buying by the Philippines and Iran, plus prospects for Russian purchases, are supporting Asian rice prices despite good harvests throughout Asia. In addition, higher-than-expected domestic prices early in the marketing year influenced the upward revision of 1995/96's SAFP estimated range. Through the first 5 months of the crop year, the U.S. monthly farm price has averaged an estimated $8.58 per cwt. In January USDA estimated December's mid-month farm price at $9.25 per cwt. In addition, the November estimate was revised to $9.13, from a preliminary $8.78. Farm prices must average about $8.43 for the remainder of the marketing year for the SAFP to equal the midpoint ($8.50) of the projected range. To date, Congress has not passed any new farm program legislation for the 1996 rice crop. However, potentially declining benefits under proposed farm program legislation could result in declining 1996 acreage and production, and higher domestic prices. Although their outcome remains highly uncertain given the state of federal budget negotiations, these potential farm bill provisions have generated some market expectations for smaller 1996 U.S. acreage, thus adding to the strength in prices. U.S. f.o.b., No. 2, 4-percent broken (high-quality long-grain) offer quotes out of Houston fell to $412 per ton in early January, down from an average of $419 in December and $441 in November. Similar type and quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B) f.o.b. offer quotes out of Bangkok have strengthened to $353 per ton, up from an average of $347 in December. The recent weakness in U.S. export prices and the strength in Thai prices have tightened the high- quality long-grain price premium of U.S. rice over Thai rice to $60 per ton, down from $72 in December and $87 in October. Traditionally, U.S. rice is thought to be competitive in international markets with a premium of $30-50 over Thai rice. Continued purchases by Japan (in compliance with minimum access criteria agreed to under the Uruguay Round of the GATT agreement) have helped push U.S. medium grain prices to a $94-per-ton premium over U.S. f.o.b. long-grain price quotes. Through January 4, 1996, Japan has purchased 212,500 tons of U.S. rice (almost entirely brown medium grain). The rapid rise in international demand for long-grain rice had lifted long-grain prices to a $40 per ton premium over medium-grain in July. In 1994/95 medium-grain rice prices averaged $61 per ton above long-grain prices. LONG-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: STEADY TO WEAKER International rice prices, supported through the summer and fall by large Asian demand and tight international supplies, are projected to weaken in 1996 as the outlook for good harvests in Asia is expected to reduce demand and increase exportable supplies. However, the timing of the expected price weakness remains less clear. Lower-quality prices have already shown some weakeness as A.1 Special (100 percent broken), f.o.b. Bangkok, price quotes have fallen to $276 per ton, down from $296 per ton in November (A.1 Special's highest recorded price in the 10 years of available data). Minimal 1994/95 ending stocks in Thailand and a reduced U.S. crop have kept high-quality stocks fairly tight entering 1996, despite an estimated near-record Thai main-season harvest in November. As a result, the high-quality price premium measured by the difference between Bangkok's f.o.b price quotes for 100-percent grade B and A.1 Special has risen to $77 per ton. In 1994/95 the high-quality price premium averaged $58 per ton. Two major international market factors that could influence the timing of the expected market weakeness (particularly the high-quality market) include a possible Vietnam export push in February and the development of Thailand's off-season rice crop (harvested in May). International price weakness may come as early as February when a portion of Vietnam's projected record 1995/96 crop is expected to enter international markets. Vietnam harvests its 10th month crop (comprising about 37 percent of total production) in January. USDA projects China's import demand will be substantially lower for 1996, diminishing the likelihood that China will again monopolize Vietnamese rice exports. As a result, some Vietnamese rice is expected to enter international markets in early 1996, pressuring prices. If significant Vietnamese rice exports do not materialize in February (due either to domestic problems or stronger-than-expected international demand), international prices may remain fairly firm until late April when the market will focus on harvest prospects for Thailand's second crop (harvested in May- June). Thailand is projected to produce a record second crop in 1996. Thailand's second crop is entirely irrigated and destined principally for export markets. INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND PRODUCTION OUTLOOK FOR 1995/96 Total 1995/96 world production (milled basis) is projected at a record 367.4 million tons, up 8 million from last month and 6.6 million from last year's record. Projected world consumption, stocks, and exports are all raised from last month. Accounting for most of the change in global supply and use is an increase of 7 million tons in China's rice crop to a record 133.0 million, based on official Chinese total grain production data. Crop projections for Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam were also raised. China's 1995/96 consumption was raised to a record 131 million tons (up 1 million from last month), while stocks were raised to 23.6 million tons (up nearly 6 million tons from last month) on the strength of the record crop. However, internal production and marketing changes make it unlikely that China will resume traditional large exports of low-quality long grain. China's import demand for high-quality long grain is expected to remain strong. As a result, USDA only lowered China's 1996 projected imports by 250,000 tons to 750,000 tons, (down more than 1 million tons from last year). The dramatic upward revision for 1995/96 world rice production has generated significantly larger ending stocks, projected at 47.9 million tons, up 5.1 million tons from last month's estimate, despite record global consumption projected at 367.7 million tons. Year-to-year global rice stocks are projected down a small 0.3 million tons. World trade in 1996 is projected at 17.3 million tons, up over 1.1 million from last month but down 14 percent from 1995 as Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, and Iran significantly reduce import volume. Despite the projected decline, world trade is still projected at its second highest level. The month-to- month gain is based on larger projected imports for Brazil (up 250,000 tons to 1.25 million), North Korea (up 250,000 tons to 450,000), and the Philippines (up 200,000 tons to 700,000). On the export side, projected exports for India, Pakistan, and Thailand were all raised on the strength of increased production forecasts. Vietnam's 1995/96 rice crop projection was revised to a record 16.6 million tons, up from last month's forecast of 16.0 million, and from 15.9 million last year. However, Vietnam's 1996 export projection remains unchanged at 2.0 million tons, the same as its 1994 and 1995 estimates. With the main-season harvest nearing completion and better crop information becoming available, Thailand's 1995/96 rice crop was revised upward to a record 14.2 million tons (milled), based on projected main-season output at 11.9 million tons (up 0.3 from last month and nearly equal to 1994's record 12.0 million) and a projected record second crop of 2.3 million (planted in January-February, harvested in May-June). USDA's 1995/96 rice crop projection for India remains unchanged at 79 million tons (milled). Although down from last year's record 81.3 million, the crop would still add to India's grain surplus and permit large exports again in 1996. India's 1996 rice export projection was revised to 2.0 million tons, up 500,000 tons from last month based on continued large government rice stock holdings and the heavy pace of export shipments and vessel arrivals experienced in early January. USDA revised its estimate of 1995 rice trade to a record 20.1 million tons, up nearly 0.6 million tons from last month's forecast on the strength of continued strong shipments by India and stronger-than-expected imports by Brazil. India's 1995 exports were raised to a record 3.9 million tons, up 0.4 million from last month due to heavy shipments in December (estimated at 800,000 tons). Brazil's 1995 rice imports were revised to 1.0 million tons (up 0.3 million from last month) based on official import data through September showing imports of over 700,000 tons. U.S. SITUATION AND OUTLOOK USDA's final estimate of the 1995 U.S. rice crop was reported at 173.9 million cwt, down slightly from the November estimate, and down 12 percent from 1994's record 197.8 million. National average yields are estimated at 5,621 pounds per acre, 5.8 percent below the 1994 record. Rice plantings in 1995 are estimated at 3.121 million acres, up 1,000 acres from November. This compares with the June 30 Acreage report estimate of 3.165 million and 1994 plantings of 3.353 million acres. A 5-percent acreage reduction program and lower farm prices in 1994/95 are responsible for the reduced 1995 planting estimate. Total 1995/96 domestic use is forecast at a record 104.2 million cwt on the strength of 4 percent growth in food use to a record 77 million cwt. USDA forecasts 1995/96 U.S. rice exports at 84 million cwt (unchanged from last month), down nearly 17 percent from 1994/95's record 100.9 million cwt, based on projected available U.S. supplies and continued strong international demand. Nearly all of the projected decline in U.S. exports is expected to be long grain, particularly rough long-grain exports which are expected to decline to 8 million cwt from 18.5 million last year as strong international demand and limited U.S. supplies place a premium on domestic milling. Latin America, the Middle East, and Europe are expected to remain important markets for U.S. rice. Lower production and continued strong exports are expected to reduce 1995/96 U.S. rice ending stocks to 25.4 million cwt (rough), down 0.3 million cwt from last month and 24 percent from a year earlier. This represents 13.5 percent of total use, the lowest since 1980/81. A breakdown of 1995 U.S. rice production by type suggests an 8-percent decrease in long grain production to 121.7 million cwt and a 19-percent decrease in short and medium grain production to 52.1 million cwt (table 6). Long-grain ending stocks are projected up slightly at 14.9 million cwt or 11.6 percent of use, despite sharply higher domestic demand as significantly smaller exports more than offset a nearly 9-percent fall in production. Medium grain exports are projected up only marginally at 20 million cwt. This projection is bolstered by expected Japanese purchases under the minimum access requirement of the World Trade Organization. Record domestic medium- grain use is expected to significantly lower ending stocks to 9.8 million cwt, or 16.5 percent of use. U.S. rice exports and sales commitments combined are running 18 percent behind of last year's pace through the first 5 months of 1995/96, according to the U.S. Export Sales Report of January 4, 1996. USDA's first indication of producer planting intentions for the 1996/97 U.S. rice crop will be in the Prospective Plantings report released on March 31, 1996. A summary of crop activity and progress by State, including the national average, will be published weekly by NASS in the Crop Progress report beginning the first week in April. ****************************************************************************** * INFORMATION CONTACTS AT THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE: * * * * Randall D. Schnepf (202) 501-8513 * * * * Next month's Rice Outlook will be available on February 12, 1996. * ****************************************************************************** Notes: Printed copies of the 1995 Rice Yearbook released in late November are available. For information, call: (800) 999-6779; for areas outside of the United States or Canada use (703) 834-0125. Tables: Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1989/90 to present Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1993/94 to present Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1993/94 to present Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1989/90 to present Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1989/90 to 1995/96. Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1989/90 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1995/96 Item | 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 | 1994/95 2/ ============================================================================== | | TOTAL RICE | Percent | ARP | 25 20 5 0 5 | 0 5 | | Area | Million acres | Planted | 2.731 2.897 2.884 3.176 2.920 | 3.353 3.121 Harvested | 2.687 2.823 2.781 3.132 2.833 | 3.316 3.093 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 5,749 5,529 5,731 5,736 5,510 | 5,964 5,621 | | | Million hundredweight | Beg. stocks | 26.7 26.3 24.6 27.4 39.4 | 25.8 31.4 Production | 154.5 156.1 159.4 179.7 156.1 | 197.8 173.9 Imports | 4.4 4.8 5.3 6.1 6.9 | 7.3 8.3 Total supply| 185.6 187.2 189.2 213.2 202.5 | 230.9 213.6 | | Food | 60.2 63.7 67.1 69.0 71.2 | 74.0 77.0 Seed | 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.6 4.2 | 4.1 4.1 Brewer's use | 15.4 15.3 15.4 15.1 15.1 | 15.1 15.1 Residual 3/ | 3.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 11.0 | 5.4 8.0 Domestic use| 82.2 91.6 95.4 96.7 101.5 | 98.6 104.2 | | Exports | 77.1 71.0 66.4 77.0 75.2 | 100.9 84.0 Rough | 4.8 6.3 5.1 3.6 | 18.5 8.0 Mld(rgh eq)| 66.2 60.1 71.9 71.5 | 82.4 76.0 Total use | 159.3 162.6 161.8 173.7 176.7 | 199.5 188.2 | | End. stocks | 26.3 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 | 31.4 25.4 CCC inv. | 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 | 0.1 0.0 Free stocks | 26.3 24.5 27.0 39.3 25.8 | 31.3 25.4 | | | Percent | Stocks-use | 16.5 15.1 16.9 22.7 14.6 | 15.7 13.5 | | Average farm | $/cwt | 8.00 price 4/ | 7.35 6.68 7.58 5.89 7.98 | 6.78 -9.00 | | Average | Percent | milling rate | 72.6 72.0 70.5 70.0 74.0 | 73.0 72.0 ============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Projected. 3/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. 4/ Marketing year weighted average price received. Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1993/94 to present ============================================================================= | 1995/96 1994/95 1993/94 | -------------------- ------------------- ------------------- Month | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================= Aug | 7.64 9,935 6.87 11,534 5.19 12,411 Sep | 7.92 11,898 6.89 12,610 5.21 12,950 Oct | 8.77 12,468 6.47 13,381 6.10 14,804 Nov | 9.13 12,881 6.53 15,470 8.06 15,228 Dec | 9.25 1/ 11,796 6.56 17,479 8.91 12,722 Jan | 6.78 17,781 8.98 14,106 Feb | 6.71 16,050 10.10 9,750 Mar | 6.64 17,565 10.20 11,594 Apr | 6.70 12,425 9.93 8,113 May | 6.75 16,848 10.00 7,854 Jun | 7.03 13,793 8.88 8,708 Jul | 7.17 9,847 7.80 7,986 | Average 2/ | 8.58 11,796 6.78 14,565 7.98 11,352 Total 3/ | 8.00-9.00 4/ 174,783 5/ 136,226 ============================================================================= 1/ Preliminary midmonth price estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1995/96 is for August to current month. 3/ Total volume marketed. 4/ 1995/96 price range is a USDA projection. 5/ Final 1994/95 marketings available in January 1996. Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1993/94 to present 1/ ============================================================================ | 1995/96 1994/95 1993/94 Month 2/| -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ============================================================================ | $/cwt Aug | 7.93 6.22 6.06 5.33 5.64 5.33 4.11 3.76 3.57 Sep | 8.02 6.30 6.13 5.62 5.67 5.36 4.20 3.84 3.65 Oct | 8.81 6.67 6.51 5.74 5.61 5.32 4.88 4.48 4.26 Nov | 8.47 6.82 6.63 5.85 5.59 5.31 6.56 6.15 5.86 Dec | 8.17 7.16 6.95 5.82 5.59 5.31 7.26 6.85 6.53 Jan 3/| 8.12 7.18 9.69 6.21 5.62 5.58 7.35 7.00 6.73 Feb | 6.41 5.70 5.66 7.49 7.31 7.20 Mar | 6.41 5.74 5.70 7.29 7.30 7.18 Apr | 6.41 5.74 5.70 6.48 7.25 7.11 May | 6.56 5.87 5.82 5.91 7.19 7.03 Jun | 7.38 6.03 6.00 5.32 7.05 6.87 Jul | 7.63 6.10 6.06 5.22 6.27 6.12 | Average 2/| 8.25 6.73 7.00 6.28 5.74 5.59 6.00 6.20 6.01 ============================================================================ 1/ Loan rate basis (rough); repayment rates for 1989-94 crops are the higher of the world price or 70 percent of the loan rate for the specified class of rice. 2/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. 3/ Preliminary. The 1995/96 average is for August to current month. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1989/90 to present 1/ ============================================================================== |1995/96 |1994/95 | Country |--------|--------1994/95 |1993/94 1992/93 1991/92 1990/91 1989/90 or | as of | as of | region |01/04/96|01/04/95 Final | Final Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== | | | 1,000 metric tons Eur. Union | 211 | 297 474 | 362 362 263 383 359 O W Eur | 136 | 127 22 | 18 47 44 46 40 Turkey | 123 | 109 259 | 67 191 154 153 138 East Eur. | 32 | 30 58 | 10 46 39 30 20 FSU | 13 | 14 18 | 4 15 42 0 0 | | | Japan | 213 | 1 2 | 568 0 0 0 0 | | | OTH ASIA/ME| 302 | 268 527 | 349 438 228 304 613 Iran | 93 | 81 191 | 121 130 7 0 0 Iraq | 0 | 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 299 S. Arabia | 87 | 80 153 | 157 205 146 180 145 | | | AFRICA | 212 | 149 257 | 258 315 244 316 299 Cote d'Iv.| 88 | 40 57 | 67 92 56 78 35 Senegal | 5 | 15 28 | 75 87 37 62 57 RSA | 53 | 76 113 | 90 111 103 87 103 | | | W HEMIS. | 375 | 931 1,585 | 513 663 771 779 656 Canada | 63 | 78 127 | 91 98 88 109 96 Mexico | 95 | 143 327 | 177 249 118 87 198 Haiti | 64 | 38 148 | 43 117 97 34 17 Jamaica | 38 | 38 74 | 63 30 56 74 68 Brazil | 2 | 385 368 | 12 0 187 295 0 | | | Total | 1,495 | 1,827 3,201 | 2,149 2,075 1,783 2,009 2,137 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census 2/ |2,667 4/| 3,324 | 2,523 2,443 2,113 2,300 2,532 Diff. 3/ |294 5/| 123 | 373 367 329 291 396 ============================================================================== Note: the "U.S. Export Sales Report" reports sales and shipments in product weight. The milled equivalent total may vary significantly from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales Report," FAS, USDA. Columns labeled "as of" represent combined exports plus sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census Bureau rice export total (reported on a milled equivalent basis) is the official export total. 3/ The "U.S. Export Sales Report" does not include U.S. Government exports under under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 4/ USDA forecast, milled equivalent. 5/ The average difference between the Census and the "Export Sales Report" for 1990/91-1994/95. Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present ============================================================================== Month | U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ or | ------------------------- --------------------------------------- marketing | LG 3/ MG 4/ Parboiled 100% 5% par- 15% 35% A.1 6/ year 1/ | Houston Calif. Houston grade B boiled broken broken special ============================================================================== | $/metric ton 7/ 1986/87 | 240 282 311 190 171 173 154 122 1987/88 | 421 366 486 273 261 256 236 204 1988/89 | 324 361 386 292 284 275 256 232 1989/90 | 342 352 400 292 259 262 214 172 1990/91 | 331 347 400 296 277 261 213 169 1991/92 | 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 | 322 383 349 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 | 439 451 480 294 244 243 208 160 | Aug '94 | 313 428 353 259 271 237 222 200 Sep '94 | 309 397 344 267 265 246 233 210 Oct '94 | 304 397 331 272 262 249 238 216 Nov '94 | 298 397 331 272 263 249 236 215 Dec '94 | 298 397 331 270 259 250 237 222 Jan '95 | 298 366 331 282 264 265 252 232 Feb '95 | 298 358 342 289 266 270 255 226 Mar '95 | 298 353 342 292 269 272 253 222 Apr '95 | 298 353 342 290 269 271 254 226 May '95 | 311 353 346 299 274 279 262 239 Jun '95 | 358 353 380 333 305 314 297 276 Jul '95 | 392 353 406 353 341 335 321 297 1994/95 | 314 375 348 290 276 270 255 232 | Aug '95 | 386 364 419 346 343 327 310 288 Sep '95 | 386 380 424 363 351 342 318 284 Oct '95 | 430 432 485 392 372 370 339 293 Nov '95 | 441 441 463 354 342 334 315 296 Dec '95 | 419 496 463 347 337 326 307 278 Jan '96 8/| 412 507 456 353 339 334 313 276 Feb '96 | Mar '96 | Apr '96 | May '96 | Jun '96 | Jul '96 | 1995/96 9/| 412 437 452 359 347 339 317 286 ============================================================================== NA = Not available. 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. embassy, Bangkok. 6/ 100 percent broken. 7/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 8/ Preliminary data. 9/ Preliminary. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1989/90 to 1995/96 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1995/96 Item | 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 | 1994/95 2/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN | | | Million acres | Planted | 2.031 2.129 2.113 2.408 2.102 | 2.410 2.335 Harvested | 1.998 2.065 2.023 2.372 2.028 | 2.379 2.312 | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 5,464 5,221 5,395 5,397 5,082 | 5,609 5,265 | Million hundredweight | Beg. stocks | 15.4 13.2 11.5 13.0 21.6 | 15.1 14.5 Production | 109.2 107.8 109.1 128.0 103.1 | 133.4 121.7 Imports | 4.0 4.3 4.7 5.4 6.2 | 6.8 7.7 Total supply| 128.6 125.3 125.4 146.4 130.9 | 155.3 143.9 | | Dom. use 3/ | 54.5 57.8 61.4 60.8 67.2 | 59.8 65.0 Exports | 60.8 56.0 51.0 64.0 48.6 | 81.0 64.0 Total use | 115.3 113.8 112.4 124.8 115.8 | 140.8 129.0 | | End. stocks | 13.2 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 | 14.5 14.9 | Percent | Stocks-use | 11.5 10.1 11.6 17.3 13.0 | 10.3 11.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN | | Million acres | Planted | 0.700 0.768 0.771 0.768 0.818 | 0.943 0.786 Harvested | 0.689 0.758 0.758 0.760 0.805 | 0.937 0.781 | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 6,579 6,370 6,627 6,795 6,590 | 6,866 6,676 | Million hundredweight | Beg. stocks | 9.0 11.6 11.7 12.9 15.8 | 10.0 15.8 Production | 45.3 48.3 50.2 51.6 53.0 | 64.3 52.1 Imports | 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 | 0.5 0.6 Total supply| 55.6 60.5 62.4 64.8 70.9 | 74.5 69.0 | | Dom. use 3/ | 27.7 33.8 34.0 35.9 34.3 | 38.7 39.2 Exports | 16.3 15.0 15.4 13.0 26.6 | 19.9 20.0 Total use | 44.0 48.8 49.4 48.9 60.9 | 58.6 59.2 | | End. stocks | 11.6 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 | 15.8 9.8 | Percent | Stocks-use | 26.5 24.0 26.1 32.4 16.4 | 27.0 16.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ End. stocks | | difference 1/| 2.4 1.4 1.4 2.0 0.7 | 1.1 0.7 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the totals for all types in table 1. 2/ Projected. 3/ Includes residual. END-END-END