RICE OUTLOOK April 12, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board Rice Outlook ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. RCS-0496. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o The forecast range of the 1995/96 U.S. season average farm price (SAFP) was narrowed 20 cents on each end to $8.70 to $9.10. o U.S. exports are forecast at 80 million cwt, down 4 million from March. The export pace through March has been slower than expected. Brazil will likely delay importing until after the close of the 1995/96 marketing year. o U.S. producers intend to plant 2.985 million acres of rice in 1996 according to the Prospective Plantings report, down only 4 percent from 1995. o On April 4, President Clinton signed the Federal Agricultural Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act. Producers who sign "production flexibility" contracts will receive government payments independent of market prices. NEAR-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: U.S. PLANTING INTENTIONS DAMPEN PRICES The 1995/96 season average farm price (SAFP) is forecast at $8.70 to $9.10 per cwt, up substantially from 1994/95's $6.78. Strong world import demand in the first half of the marketing year, tight international long-grain supplies (particularly high-quality long grain) and high prices, and a small 1995 U.S. crop are supporting U.S. long-grain export and farm prices. But the recent slowdown in exports is beginning to pressure prices down. In addition, U.S. producers indicated in the Prospective Plantings report that they would be planting more acreage to rice in 1996 than many analysts had expected. As a result, domestic prices weakened further in anticipation of a larger-than-expected crop in 1996. Although domestic prices have begun to decline, high prices in the first 8 months of the marketing year support the 1995/96 SAFP estimated range. Through the first 8 months, the U.S. monthly weighted average farm price equaled $8.84 per cwt and the simple average farm price equaled $8.80 per cwt. In March, USDA estimated March's mid-month farm price at $9.14 per cwt. In addition, the February estimate was lowered to $9.10, from a preliminary $9.23. Farm prices must average about $9.00 for the remainder of the marketing year for the SAFP to equal the midpoint ($8.90) of the projected range. U.S. f.o.b., No. 2, 4-percent broken (high-quality long-grain) offer quotes out of Houston fell to $397 per ton in early April, down from $441 in November. Similar type and quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B) f.o.b. offer quotes out of Bangkok remained strong in the first quarter of 1996, but fell sharply in early April to $341 per ton as the off-season crop began to be harvested. The recent drop in Thai prices widened the high quality long-grain price premium of U.S. rice over Thai rice to $56 per ton, up from $24 in March. Traditionally, U.S. rice is thought to be competitive in international markets with a premium of $30-50 over Thai rice. U.S. medium grain prices (No. 1, 4-percent broken, f.o.b. California) have narrowed to a premium of $66 per ton over U.S. long grain (No. 2, 4-percent broken, f.o.b. Gulf port) in early April, partly, because Japan has not been in the market recently, after making large purchases earlier in the year. Medium grain prices could strengthen if South Korea turns to the United States to meet 1996 GATT requirements and/or to replenish extremely low stocks with additional purchases. LONGER-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: WEAKER AS LARGE ASIAN CROPS ARE HARVESTED International rice prices, supported through the summer and fall by large Asian demand and tight international supplies, have begun to weaken in 1996 as the outlook for good harvests in Asia is reducing demand and increasing exportable supplies. Prices for high and lower quality rice dropped sharply in early April as the record Thai second crop began to be harvested and new export business subsided. Lower quality prices had been falling since November, but now high quality export prices have fallen to $341 per ton (100 percent B), f.o.b. Bangkok, from an average of $373 in March. Lower quality rice prices also dropped steeply in early April as A.1 Special (100 percent broken), f.o.b. Bangkok, quotes fell to $246 per ton, from an average of $261 in March. The second crop harvest and the slow-down in lower quality purchases by the Philippines, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and China are contributing to the price decline. Minimal 1994/95 ending stocks in Thailand and a reduced U.S. crop kept high- quality stocks fairly tight entering 1996, despite an estimated near-record Thai main-season harvest in November. As a result, the high quality price premium measured by the difference between Bangkok's f.o.b price quotes for 100-percent grade B and A.1 Special rose to $121 per ton in February, but declined to $95 in early April. In 1994/95 the high-quality price premium averaged $58 per ton. Prices are likely to continue to weaken as long as the Thai second crop harvest continues and import demand remains weak. INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND PRODUCTION OUTLOOK FOR 1995/96 The 1995/96 world rice supply, demand, and trade projections are largely unchanged from last month. Global production (milled basis) is projected at a record 370 million tons, 8 million above last year's record. Projected world consumption of 369.6 million tons is only slightly above last year and exports in 1996 are expected to fall. Larger production is expected to push global ending stocks to a projected 49.6 million tons, just over last year. This months small change in global supply and use is mainly in Argentina, Uruguay, and a number of smaller African countries. Dry weather in Argentina is forcing the abandonment of more acreage than usual. Therefore, production (570,000 tons) and exports (395,000 tons) are forecast down from last month. In contrast, in neighboring Uruguay, the weather has been very good this season, without the usual unfavorable cool period in February, so yields there are expected to exceed last seasons record. With area nearly unchanged and yields up, production projections have been increased this month to a record 576,000 tons. Uruguays prospective exports were also raised to 500,000 tons for 1996, up 11 percent from 1995. World rice trade in calendar 1996 is projected down 13 percent from 1995 to 17.7 million tons, reflecting a large drop in imports by Bangladesh, China, and Indonesia as 1995/96 production in these countries returns to normal. However, trade is expected to be the second highest on record. The U.S. calendar year export forecast has been reduced by 100,000 tons from March to 2.8 million tons because of the slower than expected pace set in the first quarter of the year. Japan's and South Korea's 1996 imports were raised this month, reflecting a shift in some deliveries from 1995 to 1996. Also, South Korea is expected to exceed its GATT minimum rice imports by over 100,000 tons to bolster domestic supplies that are exceedingly tight this year. The 1996 North Korean import forecast was lowered because it lacks foreign exchange and credit, limiting its imports to aid shipments only. U.S. SITUATION AND OUTLOOK USDA's final estimate of the 1995 U.S. rice crop was reported in January at 173.9 million cwt, down 12 percent from 1994's record 197.8 million. National average yields are estimated at 5,621 pounds per acre, 5.8 percent below the 1994 record. Rice plantings in 1995 are estimated at 3.121 million acres. Total 1995/96 domestic use is forecast at a record 104.2 million cwt on the strength of 4 percent growth in food use to a record 77 million cwt. U.S. rice exports and sales commitments combined are running 20 percent behind last year's pace through the first 8 months of 1995/96, according to the U.S. Export Sales report of April 4, 1996. The pace-to-date contributed to the reduction in USDA's 1995/96 U.S. export estimate to 80 million cwt. Lower production and relatively strong domestic use and exports are expected to reduce 1995/96 U.S. rice ending stocks to 28.6 million cwt (rough), down 9 percent from a year earlier. These represent 15.5 percent of total use, only slightly below those of 1994/95. RICE ACREAGE TO FALL IN 1996 The Prospective Plantings report, released on March 29, indicated that rice producers intend to reduce acreage 4 percent from 1995 to 2.985 million acres. Many analysts in the rice industry had expected acreage to drop even further because the new Farm Act will reduce government payments to producers. It was expected that producers in high cost areas would shift more land to other crops or increase idled acreage. However, the planting intentions survey was taken in the first 2 weeks of March, prior to the passage of the new Farm Act. At the time, there were several outstanding issues regarding contract payments and planting requirements. As the planting period proceeds, producers may revise their intentions due to changes in the weather, economic conditions, availability of inputs, and/or plantings report information. Over the last 10 years, actual rice acres planted have differed from prospective plantings by an average of 95,000 acres, and by as much as 205,000 acres in 1993. USDA's Acreage report, scheduled for release on June 28, will update the March estimates. The Prospective Plantings report showed a 9-percent decline in long grain acres and a 10-percent increase in medium grain plantings. Rice producers in nearly every rice growing State indicated that they would be substituting some medium grain rice acres for long grain acres. Producers are likely assuming that the premiums obtained this year for medium grain rice will continue through 1996/97. California was the only State where producers said they plan to increase rice area. In Arkansas, the largest rice growing State, producers intend to reduce acreage 6 percent, with long grain acreage falling 10 percent and medium grain acreage rising 20 percent. While producers in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri indicated that they would reduce rice acreage (all long grain), they also intend to sharply increase corn plantings. Cool, wet weather has hampered planting in several southern States. USDA's Crop Progress report indicated that planting in the five major rice growing States (Arkansas, California, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas) is 11 percent completed as of April 8, well behind last year's 18 percent and the 5-year average of 13 percent. NEW FARM ACT BECOMES LAW On April 4, 1996, the President signed the Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act. The new Farm Act supersedes the rice program proposed by Secretary Glickman in February, which proposed that the rice loan rate be set at $9.50 per cwt. FAIR removes the link between income support payments and farm prices by creating "production flexibility contract payments" whereby participating producers may receive government payments independent of farm prices. Farmers will have much greater flexibility in making planting decisions, with the elimination of the acreage reduction program (ARP) and the freedom to plant any crop on contract acres, with limitations on fruits and vegetables. As a result, producers will rely on the market as a guide for production decisions. Producers will also bear the risk of greater income variability because payments are fixed and not related to the level of market prices. Some major provisions of FAIR: FAIR eliminates target prices and deficiency payments. Instead, USDA will offer 7-year production flexibility contracts for rice, beginning in 1996. Payments will be fixed in advance and decline after 1998. Rice producers will receive 8.47 percent of total annual contract payments plus an additional rice allocation of $8.5 million per year. For fiscal 1998, for example, the total allocation for rice is 8.47 percent of the total annual payment of $5.8 billion, or $491.26 million plus the additional rice allocation for a total of $499.76 million. The annual payment rate for rice equals total annual spending ($499.76) divided by the sum of all individual rice payment contract quantities for the year. An individual's payment quantity equals the farm's program payment yield multiplied by 85 percent of the farm's rice contract acreage. A farm's contract acreage is limited to rice base acreage plus any returning CRP rice base. Program yields are determined in the same manner as under the 1990 Act. An individual farmer's transition payment is his or her payment quantity times the annual payment rate. To receive payments, producers must sign production flexibility contracts by July 12, 1996. One exception is for acreage under CRP contracts that expire after the deadline. Production flexibility contracts extend through the 2002/03 crop year. Eligible contract acreage must have either been included in the annual acreage reduction program for at least one out of the last five crop years, or have been considered planted. The definition of considered planted has been expanded to include acreage that may not have participated, but which was reported to the Farm Service Agency. Contract payments will be limited to $40,000 per person, down from the current limit of $50,000. An individual's limit on payments from marketing loan provisions, marketing loan gains, or loan deficiency payments continues at $75,000. Producers' planting flexibility will increase because producers will be able to plant any crop, with fruits and vegetables only permitted in certain circumstances, or leave land idle and still receive contract payments. The basic nonrecourse commodity loans will be retained, although for rice, the loan rate will be frozen at the 1995 level of $6.50 per cwt. Marketing loan provisions are retained. The Acreage Reduction Program (ARP) and the 50-85 program are eliminated. ****************************************************************************** * INFORMATION CONTACTS AT THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE: * * * * Sara J. Schwartz, domestic (202) 219-0768 * * Carol Whitton, international (202) 219-0825 * * * * Next month's Rice Outlook will be available on May 13, 1996. * ****************************************************************************** Note: The first forecast for the 1996/97 U.S. and world rice supply and demand will be published on May 10 in USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Detailed 1996/97 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on July 15 in the Foreign Agricultural Service's Grain: World Markets and Trade. Tables: Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1989/90 to present Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1993/94 to present Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1993/94 to present Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1989/90 to present Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1989/90 to 1995/96. Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1989/90 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1995/96 Item | 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 | 1994/95 2/ ============================================================================== | | TOTAL RICE | Percent | ARP | 25 20 5 0 5 | 0 5 | | Area | Million acres | Planted | 2.731 2.897 2.884 3.176 2.920 | 3.353 3.121 Harvested | 2.687 2.823 2.781 3.132 2.833 | 3.316 3.093 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 5,749 5,529 5,731 5,736 5,510 | 5,964 5,621 | | | Million hundredweight | Beg. stocks | 26.7 26.3 24.6 27.4 39.4 | 25.8 31.4 Production | 154.5 156.1 159.4 179.7 156.1 | 197.8 173.9 Imports | 4.4 4.8 5.3 6.1 6.9 | 7.0 7.5 Total supply| 185.6 187.2 189.2 213.2 202.5 | 230.6 212.8 | | Food | 60.2 63.7 67.1 69.0 71.2 | 74.0 77.0 Seed | 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.6 4.2 | 4.1 4.1 Brewer's use | 15.4 15.3 15.4 15.1 15.1 | 15.1 15.1 Residual 3/ | 3.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 11.0 | 5.1 8.0 Domestic use| 82.2 91.6 95.4 96.7 101.5 | 98.3 104.2 | | Exports | 77.1 71.0 66.4 77.0 75.2 | 100.9 80.0 Rough | 4.8 6.3 5.1 3.6 | 18.5 8.0 Mld(rgh eq)| 66.2 60.1 71.9 71.5 | 82.4 72.0 Total use | 159.3 162.6 161.8 173.7 176.7 | 199.2 184.2 | | End. stocks | 26.3 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 | 31.4 28.6 CCC inv. | 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 | 0.1 0.0 Free stocks | 26.3 24.5 27.0 39.3 25.8 | 31.3 28.6 | | | Percent | Stocks-use | 16.5 15.1 16.9 22.7 14.6 | 15.8 15.5 | | Average farm | $/cwt | 8.70 price 4/ | 7.35 6.68 7.58 5.89 7.98 | 6.78 9.10 | | Average | Percent | milling rate | 72.6 72.0 70.5 70.0 74.0 | 73.0 72.0 ============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Projected. 3/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. 4/ Marketing year weighted average price received. Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1993/94 to present ============================================================================= | 1995/96 1994/95 1993/94 | -------------------- ------------------- ------------------- Month | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================= Aug | 7.64 9,935 6.87 11,534 5.19 12,411 Sep | 7.92 12,010 6.89 12,610 5.21 12,950 Oct | 8.77 12,493 6.47 13,381 6.10 14,804 Nov | 9.12 12,951 6.53 15,470 8.06 15,228 Dec | 9.36 12,503 6.56 17,479 8.91 12,722 Jan | 9.33 13,130 6.78 17,781 8.98 14,106 Feb | 9.10 11,898 6.71 16,050 10.10 9,750 Mar | 9.14 1/ 12,131 6.64 17,565 10.20 11,594 Apr | 6.70 12,425 9.93 8,113 May | 6.75 16,848 10.00 7,854 Jun | 7.03 13,793 8.88 8,708 Jul | 7.17 9,847 7.80 7,986 | Average 2/ | 8.83 12,131 6.78 14,565 7.98 11,352 Total 3/ | 8.70-9.10 4/ 174,783 5/ 136,226 ============================================================================= 1/ Preliminary midmonth price estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1995/96 is for August to current month. 3/ Total volume marketed. 4/ 1995/96 price range is a USDA projection. 5/ Preliminary final 1994/95 marketings available in July 1996. Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1993/94 to present 1/ ============================================================================ | 1995/96 1994/95 1993/94 Month 2/| -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ============================================================================ | $/cwt Aug | 7.93 6.22 6.06 5.33 5.64 5.33 4.11 3.76 3.57 Sep | 8.02 6.30 6.13 5.62 5.67 5.36 4.20 3.84 3.65 Oct | 8.81 6.67 6.51 5.74 5.61 5.32 4.88 4.48 4.26 Nov | 8.47 6.82 6.63 5.85 5.59 5.31 6.56 6.15 5.86 Dec | 8.17 7.16 6.95 5.82 5.59 5.31 7.26 6.85 6.53 Jan | 8.11 7.19 7.13 6.21 5.62 5.58 7.35 7.00 6.73 Feb | 7.90 7.49 7.67 6.41 5.70 5.66 7.49 7.31 7.20 Mar | 7.97 7.38 7.55 6.41 5.74 5.70 7.29 7.30 7.18 Apr 3/| 7.78 7.30 7.47 6.41 5.74 5.70 6.48 7.25 7.11 May | 6.56 5.87 5.82 5.91 7.19 7.03 Jun | 7.38 6.03 6.00 5.32 7.05 6.87 Jul | 7.63 6.10 6.06 5.22 6.27 6.12 | Average 2/| 8.13 6.95 6.90 6.28 5.74 5.59 6.00 6.20 6.01 ============================================================================ 1/ Loan rate basis (rough); repayment rates for 1989-94 crops are the higher of the world price or 70 percent of the loan rate for the specified class of rice. 2/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. 3/ Preliminary. The 1995/96 average is for August to current month. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1989/90 to present 1/ ============================================================================== |1995/96 |1994/95 | Country |--------|--------1994/95 |1993/94 1992/93 1991/92 1990/91 1989/90 or | as of | as of | region |04/04/96|04/04/95 Final | Final Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== | | | 1,000 metric tons Eur. Union | 322 | 380 474 | 362 362 263 383 359 O W Eur | 16 | 20 22 | 18 47 44 46 40 Turkey | 160 | 210 259 | 67 191 154 153 138 East Eur. | 34 | 40 58 | 10 46 39 30 20 FSU | 19 | 22 18 | 4 15 42 0 0 | | | Japan | 191 | 1 2 | 568 0 0 0 0 | | | OTH ASIA/ME| 323 | 396 527 | 349 438 228 304 613 Iran | 72 | 133 191 | 121 130 7 0 0 Iraq | 0 | 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 299 S. Arabia | 122 | 125 153 | 157 205 146 180 145 | | | AFRICA | 276 | 207 257 | 258 315 244 316 299 Cote d'Iv.| 88 | 41 57 | 67 92 56 78 35 Senegal | 5 | 26 28 | 75 87 37 62 57 RSA | 109 | 109 113 | 90 111 103 87 103 | | | W HEMIS. | 707 | 1,245 1,585 | 513 663 771 779 656 Canada | 90 | 109 127 | 91 98 88 109 96 Mexico | 190 | 185 327 | 177 249 118 87 198 Haiti | 87 | 78 148 | 43 117 97 34 17 Jamaica | 62 | 57 74 | 63 30 56 74 68 Brazil | 1 | 367 368 | 12 0 187 295 0 | | | Total | 2,054 | 2,564 3,201 | 2,149 2,075 1,783 2,009 2,137 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census 2/ |2,613 4/| 3,324 | 2,523 2,443 2,113 2,300 2,532 Diff. 3/ |294 5/| 123 | 373 367 329 291 396 ============================================================================== Note: the "U.S. Export Sales Report" reports sales and shipments in product weight. The milled equivalent total may vary significantly from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales Report," FAS, USDA. Columns labeled "as of" represent combined exports plus sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census Bureau rice export total (reported on a milled equivalent basis) is the official export total. 3/ The "U.S. Export Sales Report" does not include U.S. Government exports under under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 4/ USDA forecast, milled equivalent. 5/ The average difference between the Census and the "Export Sales Report" for 1990/91-1994/95. Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present ============================================================================== Month | U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ or | ------------------------- --------------------------------------- marketing | LG 3/ MG 4/ Parboiled 100% 5% par- 15% 35% A.1 6/ year 1/ | Houston Calif. Houston grade B boiled broken broken special ============================================================================== | $/metric ton 7/ 1986/87 | 240 282 311 190 171 173 154 122 1987/88 | 421 366 486 273 261 256 236 204 1988/89 | 324 361 386 292 284 275 256 232 1989/90 | 342 352 400 292 259 262 214 172 1990/91 | 331 347 400 296 277 261 213 169 1991/92 | 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 | 322 383 349 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 | 439 451 480 294 244 243 208 160 | Aug '94 | 313 428 353 259 271 237 222 200 Sep '94 | 309 397 344 267 265 246 233 210 Oct '94 | 304 397 331 272 262 249 238 216 Nov '94 | 298 397 331 272 263 249 236 215 Dec '94 | 298 397 331 270 259 250 237 222 Jan '95 | 298 366 331 282 264 265 252 232 Feb '95 | 298 358 342 289 266 270 255 226 Mar '95 | 298 353 342 292 269 272 253 222 Apr '95 | 298 353 342 290 269 271 254 226 May '95 | 311 353 346 299 274 279 262 239 Jun '95 | 358 353 380 333 305 314 297 276 Jul '95 | 392 353 406 353 341 335 321 297 1994/95 | 314 375 348 290 276 270 255 232 | Aug '95 | 386 364 419 346 343 327 310 288 Sep '95 | 386 380 424 368 354 346 322 285 Oct '95 | 430 432 485 393 373 372 340 293 Nov '95 | 441 441 463 354 342 334 315 296 Dec '95 | 419 496 463 347 337 326 307 278 Jan '96 | 410 507 454 372 355 350 321 271 Feb '96 | 402 474 449 377 357 348 307 256 Mar '96 | 397 463 441 373 350 344 301 260 Apr '96 8/| 397 463 452 343 320 313 273 246 May '96 | Jun '96 | Jul '96 | 1995/96 9/| 408 447 450 364 348 340 311 275 ============================================================================== NA = Not available. 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. embassy, Bangkok. 6/ 100 percent broken. 7/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 8/ Preliminary data. 9/ Preliminary. Rice supply and use, by type, 1989/90 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1995/96 Item | 1989/90 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 | 1994/95 2/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN | | | Million acres | Planted | 2.031 2.129 2.113 2.408 2.102 | 2.410 2.335 Harvested | 1.998 2.065 2.023 2.372 2.028 | 2.379 2.312 | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 5,464 5,221 5,395 5,397 5,082 | 5,609 5,265 | Million hundredweight | Beg. stocks | 15.4 13.2 11.5 13.0 21.6 | 15.1 14.5 Production | 109.2 107.8 109.1 128.0 103.1 | 133.4 121.7 Imports | 4.0 4.3 4.7 5.4 6.2 | 6.0 6.5 Total supply| 128.6 125.3 125.4 146.4 130.9 | 154.5 142.7 Dom. use 3/ | 54.5 57.8 61.4 60.8 67.2 | 59.0 65.0 Exports | 60.8 56.0 51.0 64.0 48.6 | 81.0 60.0 Total use | 115.3 113.8 112.4 124.8 115.8 | 140.0 125.0 | | End. stocks | 13.2 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 | 14.5 17.7 | Percent | Stocks-use | 11.5 10.1 11.6 17.3 13.0 | 10.3 14.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN | | Million acres | Planted | 0.700 0.768 0.771 0.768 0.818 | 0.943 0.786 Harvested | 0.689 0.758 0.758 0.760 0.805 | 0.937 0.781 | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 6,579 6,370 6,627 6,795 6,590 | 6,866 6,676 | Million hundredweight | Beg. stocks | 9.0 11.6 11.7 12.9 15.8 | 10.0 15.8 Production | 45.3 48.3 50.2 51.6 53.0 | 64.3 52.1 Imports | 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 | 1.0 1.0 Total supply| 55.6 60.5 62.4 64.8 70.9 | 74.9 69.4 | | Dom. use 3/ | 27.7 33.8 34.1 35.9 34.3 | 39.2 39.2 Exports | 16.3 15.0 15.4 13.0 26.6 | 19.9 20.0 Total use | 44.0 48.8 49.5 48.9 60.9 | 59.1 59.2 | | End. stocks | 11.6 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 | 15.8 10.2 | | | Percent | Stocks-use | 26.5 24.0 26.1 32.4 16.4 | 26.8 17.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ End. stocks | | difference 1/| 2.4 1.4 1.4 2.0 0.7 | 1.1 0.7 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the totals for all types in table 1. 2/ Projected. 3/ Includes residual. END-END-END