RICE OUTLOOK May 13, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. RCS--0596. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o The 1996/97 range for the U.S. season average farm price (SAFP) is $8.00 to $9.00. o The forecast range of the 1995/96 U.S. SAFP was narrowed to $8.85 to $9.05, raising the lower end 15 cents and reducing the high end by 5 cents. o U.S. 1996/97 production is projected down nearly 2 percent from 1995/96. Tight long grain supplies are likely to support domestic prices and limit export availability. High quality medium grain exports are projected to expand. NEAR-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: U.S. PRICES BOLSTERED BY HIGH GRAIN AND SOYBEAN PRICES The 1996/97 season average farm price (SAFP) is projected to range from $8.00 to $9.00 per cwt. The SAFP is likely to stay firm as expectations of relatively strong export demand for high-quality long and medium grain rice, rising domestic use, and high prices of the other grains combine to support U.S. rice prices. However, with exports accounting for 41 percent of total disappearance, global rice production and consumption in 1996/97 will continue to influence U.S. farm prices. The 1995/96 season average farm price (SAFP) is forecast at $8.85 to $9.05 per cwt, up substantially from 1994/95's $6.78. Strong world import demand in the first half of the August/July marketing year, tight international long-grain supplies (particularly high-quality long grain), and high prices, and a small 1995 U.S. crop are supporting U.S. long-grain export and farm prices. U.S. rice prices have strengthened in recent weeks, despite a slowdown in exports. Expectations of a smaller 1996/97 crop and soaring wheat, corn, and soybean prices are supporting U.S. rice prices. In the first 9 months of the 1995/96 marketing year, the U.S. monthly weighted average farm price equaled $8.91 per cwt and the simple average farm price equaled $8.86 per cwt. In April, USDA estimated April's mid-month farm price at $9.18 per cwt. The March estimate was raised to $9.31, from a preliminary $9.14. Farm prices must average about $9.07 for the remainder of the marketing year for the SAFP to equal the midpoint ($8.95) of the projected range. U.S. f.o.b., No. 2, 4-percent broken (high-quality long-grain) offer quotes out of Houston rose to $406 per ton in early May, the highest since January 1996. Similar type and quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B) f.o.b. offer quotes out of Bangkok stabilized at the end of April, down sharply from March as the off-season crop entered marketing channels and export sales slowed. However, in early May, Bangkok prices for high quality rice drifted upward in response to a strong shipping pace. Despite the slight up-tick in Thai prices, the high quality long-grain price premium of U.S. rice over Thai rice widened to $88 per ton, up from $64 in April. Traditionally, U.S. rice is thought to be competitive in international markets with a premium of $30-50 over Thai rice. U.S. medium grain prices (No. 1, 4-percent broken, f.o.b. California) narrowed to a premium of $11 per ton over U.S. long grain (No. 2, 4-percent broken, f.o.b. Gulf port) in early May, the lowest since November. The drop was partly because Japan has not been in the market recently, after making large purchases earlier in the year. Medium grain prices could strengthen if South Korea turns to the United States to meet 1996 GATT requirements and/or to replenish extremely low stocks with additional purchases. LONGER-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: WEAKER AS LARGE ASIAN CROPS ARE HARVESTED International rice prices, supported through the summer and fall by large Asian demand and tight international supplies, have weakened in 1996 as the outlook for good harvests in Asia is reducing demand and increasing exportable supplies. Lower quality rice prices had been falling since November, but in April, high quality export prices also dropped, reaching $340 per ton (100 percent B, f.o.b. Bangkok) by the last week of April. High quality export prices had averaged $373 in March. In early May, they rose slightly to $342. Lower quality rice prices dropped steeply in April. A.1 Special (100 percent broken, f.o.b. Bangkok) quotes fell to $243 per ton by the end of the month, from an average of $261 in March. Low quality prices remained down in early May. The second crop harvest and the slow-down in lower quality purchases by the Philippines, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and China contributed to the price decline. Minimal 1994/95 ending stocks in Thailand and a reduced U.S. crop kept high- quality stocks fairly tight entering 1996, despite an estimated near-record Thai main-season harvest in November. As a result, the high quality price premium measured by the difference between Bangkok's f.o.b price quotes for 100-percent grade B and A.1 Special rose to $121 per ton in February, but declined to $99 by early May. In 1994/95 the high-quality price premium averaged $58 per ton. Both high and low quality rice prices should weaken further as the Thai second crop harvest continues to enter marketing channels. However, the high quality price premium over low quality could begin to widen again over the next few months as sales of high quality rice remain relatively strong while demand for low quality rice weakens further. INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND PRODUCTION OUTLOOK FOR 1996/97 Global production is projected up 1 percent from 1995/96 to a record 379 million tons (milled basis). Growth in consumption is projected to match this gain, with record use nearly equaling production. Ending stocks remain largely unchanged at 50 million tons, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio falling to 13.2 percent. All of the expected production gain occurs in foreign countries, where, assuming normal weather, output is projected up 1 percent to 373 million tons and consumption is projected to rise by about the same amount to 375 million tons. USDA will release its first country level projections for 1996/97 in July. U.S. SITUATION AND OUTLOOK IN 1996/97 USDA projects the 1996 rice crop at 171 million cwt, down nearly 2 percent from 1995. Carryin stocks are also lower and total supplies of 208 million cwt are projected 2 percent lower than in 1995. Disappearance is projected down 1 percent to 182 million cwt. Growth in food consumption will only partly offset lower exports. Ending stocks are projected 11 percent lower than in 1995/96 at 25.5 million cwt, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio declining to 14 from 15.5 in 1995/96. USDA's projected 1996 crop is based on farmer planting intentions, average abandonment, and the 1991-95 average yield. In March, producers indicated that they would plant 2.985 million acres. As of May 5, 62 percent of the rice crop had been planted, compared to 64 percent last year and 56 percent for the average. Emergence is 16 percent behind last year, but 17 percent higher than the 5-year average. A breakdown of U.S. rice acreage by State indicates a decrease in long grain production of 9 percent to 110.5 million cwt. However, medium grain production is projected to rise 16 percent to 60.5 million cwt. Long grain supplies are projected to tighten because of reduced production and smaller carry-in stocks. Increased production will allow medium and short grain supplies to expand despite reduced carryin stocks. Strong demand for long grain rice is projected to lower 1996/97 ending stocks 20 percent to 14.2 million cwt, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 11.7 percent, down from 14.2 percent in 1995/96. The short and medium grain scenario is also relatively tight, with ending stocks projected only slightly higher than 1995/96 at 10.6 million cwt, and ending-stock-to-use ratio at 17.3 percent, nearly the same as in 1995/96. U.S. exports in 1996/97 are projected at 75 million cwt, down 6 percent from the 1995/96 forecast. Lower U.S. long grain rice supplies and continued strong domestic growth in food use will support farm prices and help widen of the premium between U.S. high quality long grain prices and those of Asian exporters. However, long grain rough rice exports to Latin America are likely to remain strong. And, high quality medium grain exports are projected to expand as Japan and South Korea increase imports as part of their GATT minimum access commitments, and as traditional medium grain importers, such as Turkey, continue importing U.S. rice. The Prospective Plantings report released on March 29, 1996, was the first information available on 1996 production. The planting intentions are based primarily on farm operator surveys taken during the first 2 weeks in March. As the planting period proceeds, producers may revise their intentions due to changes in the weather, prices of alternative crops, economic conditions, and/or availability of inputs. On June 28, NASS will publish new planted and harvested acreage estimates. On August 12, USDA will report rice production based on objective yield and farm operator surveys. U.S. SITUATION AND OUTLOOK FOR 1995/96 U.S. 1995 rice production is estimated at 173.9 million cwt, down 12 percent from 1994's record 197.8 million cwt. Total 1995/96 domestic use is forecast at a record 104.2 million cwt on the strength of 4 percent growth in food use to a record 77 million cwt. U.S. rice exports and sales commitments combined are running 22 percent behind last year's pace through the first 9 months of 1995/96, according to the U.S. Export Sales report of May 9, 1996. The pace supports USDA's 1995/96 U.S. export forecast of 80 million cwt. Lower production and relatively strong domestic use and exports are expected to reduce 1995/96 U.S. rice ending stocks to 28.6 million cwt (rough), down 9 percent from a year earlier. The ending stock represent 15.5 percent of total use, only slightly below those of 1994/95. INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION AND TRADE OUTLOOK FOR 1995/96 The 1995/96 world rice supply, demand, and trade projections are up marginally from last month. Global production (milled basis) is projected at 374 million tons, 10 million above last year's record. Projected world consumption of 373.8 million tons is only slightly above last year and exports in 1996 are expected to fall. Larger production is expected to push global ending stocks to a projected 49.9 million tons, just over last year. World rice trade in calendar 1996 is projected down 12 percent from 1995 to 17.9 million tons, reflecting a large drop in imports by Bangladesh, China, and Indonesia as 1995/96 production in these countries returns to normal. However, trade is expected to be the second highest on record. Indonesia, Bangladesh, and India, account for this months trade changes. Based on Indonesian government estimates, USDA raised Indonesia's production forecast by 1 million tons to 33.2 million. Imports for 1996 remain unchanged at 1.5 million tons. Recently released official data from Bangladesh indicate that 1995/96 production will be lower than earlier forecast, but the 1996 import forecast remains unchanged at 750,000 tons. USDA raised India's 1995/96 production forecast to 81 million tons, based on official data from India. India's 1996 export forecast was raised 300,000 tons to 2.8 million tons in May, making India the world's second largest rice exporter for the second consecutive year. Flood damage in northern India earlier in the year was not as great as had been thought and better than expected yields were achieved. The larger output, a strong pace of shipments to date, numerous vessels still waiting to be loaded, and continued demand from neighboring Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, suggest larger 1996 exports. Forecast 1996 U.S. exports remain at 2.7 million tons, unchanged from last month and 12 percent below 1995. The United States accounts for 15 percent of world rice trade. ****************************************************************************** * INFORMATION CONTACTS AT THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE: * * Nathan Childs, domestic (202) 501-8513 * * Sara J. Schwartz, domestic (202) 219-0768 * * Carol Whitton, international (202) 219-0825 * * * * Next month's Rice Outlook will be available on June 13, 1996. * ****************************************************************************** Note: Detailed 1996/97 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on July 15 in the Foreign Agricultural Service's Grain: World Markets and Trade. Tables: Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1990/91 to present Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1993/94 to present Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1993/94 to present Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1989/90 to present Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1990/91 to 1996/97. Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1990/91 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1995/96 1996/97 Item | 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 | 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== | | TOTAL RICE | Percent | ARP | 20 5 0 5 0 | 5 0 | | Area | Million acres | Planted | 2.897 2.884 3.176 2.920 3.353 | 3.121 2.985 Harvested | 2.823 2.781 3.132 2.833 3.316 | 3.093 2.924 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 5,529 5,731 5,736 5,510 5,964 | 5,621 5,848 | | | Million hundredweight | Beg. stocks | 26.3 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 | 31.4 28.6 Production | 156.1 159.4 179.7 156.1 197.8 | 173.9 171.0 Imports | 4.8 5.3 6.1 6.9 7.0 | 7.5 8.0 Total supply| 187.2 189.2 213.2 202.5 230.6 | 212.8 207.6 | | Food | 63.7 67.1 69.0 71.2 74.0 | 77.0 80 Seed | 3.6 3.9 3.6 4.2 4.1 | 4.1 4.0 Brewer's use | 15.3 15.5 15.1 15.1 15.2 | 15.1 15.1 Residual 4/ | 9.0 9.0 9.0 11.0 5.0 | 8.0 8.0 Domestic use| 91.6 95.5 96.7 101.5 98.3 | 104.2 107.1 | | Exports | 71.0 66.4 77.0 75.2 100.9 | 80.0 75.0 Rough | 4.8 6.3 5.1 3.6 18.5 | 9.0 12.0 Mld(rgh eq)| 66.2 60.1 71.9 71.5 82.4 | 71.0 63.0 Total use | 162.6 161.9 173.7 176.7 199.2 | 184.2 182.1 | | End. stocks | 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.4 | 28.6 25.5 CCC inv. | 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 | 0.0 0.0 Free stocks | 24.5 27.0 39.3 25.8 31.3 | 28.6 25.5 | | | Percent | Stocks-use | 15.1 16.9 22.7 14.6 15.8 | 15.5 14.0 | | Average farm | $/cwt | 8.85 8.00 price 5/ | 6.68 7.58 5.89 7.98 6.78 | 9.05 9.00 | | Average | Percent | milling rate | 72.0 70.5 70.0 74.0 73.0 | 72.0 72.0 ============================================================================== 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/Marketing year weighted average price received. Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1993/94 to present ============================================================================= | 1995/96 1994/95 1993/94 | -------------------- ------------------- ------------------- Month | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================= Aug | 7.64 9,935 6.87 11,534 5.19 12,411 Sep | 7.95 12,010 6.89 12,610 5.21 12,950 Oct | 8.77 12,493 6.47 13,381 6.10 14,804 Nov | 9.12 12,951 6.53 15,470 8.06 15,228 Dec | 9.36 12,503 6.56 17,479 8.91 12,722 Jan | 9.33 13,130 6.78 17,781 8.98 14,106 Feb | 9.10 11,898 6.71 16,050 10.10 9,750 Mar | 9.31 14,690 6.64 17,565 10.20 11,594 Apr | 9.18 1/ 12,451 6.70 12,425 9.93 8,113 May | 6.75 16,848 10.00 7,854 Jun | 7.03 13,793 8.88 8,708 Jul | 7.17 9,847 7.80 7,986 | Average 2/ | 8.91 12,451 6.78 14,565 7.98 11,352 Total 3/ | 8.85-9.05 4/ 174,783 5/ 136,226 ============================================================================= 1/ Preliminary midmonth price estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1995/96 is for August to current month. 3/ Total volume marketed. 4/ 1995/96 price range is a USDA projection. 5/ Preliminary final 1994/95 marketings available in July 1996. Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1993/94 to present 1/ ============================================================================ | 1995/96 1994/95 1993/94 Month 2/| -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ============================================================================ | $/cwt Aug | 7.93 6.22 6.06 5.33 5.64 5.33 4.11 3.76 3.57 Sep | 8.02 6.30 6.13 5.62 5.67 5.36 4.20 3.84 3.65 Oct | 8.81 6.67 6.51 5.74 5.61 5.32 4.88 4.48 4.26 Nov | 8.47 6.82 6.63 5.85 5.59 5.31 6.56 6.15 5.86 Dec | 8.17 7.16 6.95 5.82 5.59 5.31 7.26 6.85 6.53 Jan | 8.11 7.19 7.13 6.21 5.62 5.58 7.35 7.00 6.73 Feb | 7.90 7.49 7.67 6.41 5.70 5.66 7.49 7.31 7.20 Mar | 7.97 7.38 7.55 6.41 5.74 5.70 7.29 7.30 7.18 Apr | 7.68 7.25 7.42 6.41 5.74 5.70 6.48 7.25 7.11 May 3/| 7.61 7.22 7.39 6.56 5.87 5.82 5.91 7.19 7.03 Jun | 7.38 6.03 6.00 5.32 7.05 6.87 Jul | 7.63 6.10 6.06 5.22 6.27 6.12 | Average 2/| 8.07 6.97 6.94 6.28 5.74 5.59 6.00 6.20 6.01 ============================================================================ 1/ Loan rate basis (rough); repayment rates for 1989-94 crops are the higher of the world price or 70 percent of the loan rate for the specified class of rice. 2/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. 3/ Preliminary. The 1995/96 average is for August to current month. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1989/90 to present 1/ ============================================================================== |1995/96 |1994/95 | Country |--------|--------1994/95 |1993/94 1992/93 1991/92 1990/91 1989/90 or | as of | as of | region |05/2/96 |05/02/95 Final | Final Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== | | | 1,000 metric tons Eur. Union | 370 | 397 474 | 362 362 263 383 359 O W Eur | 17 | 21 22 | 18 47 44 46 40 Turkey | 161 | 231 259 | 67 191 154 153 138 East Eur. | 34 | 60 58 | 10 46 39 30 20 FSU | 23 | 23 18 | 4 15 42 0 0 | | | Japan | 191 | 1 2 | 568 0 0 0 0 | | | OTH ASIA/ME| 345 | 549 527 | 349 438 228 304 613 Iran | 72 | 258 191 | 121 130 7 0 0 Iraq | 0 | 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 299 S. Arabia | 142 | 126 153 | 157 205 146 180 145 | | | AFRICA | 290 | 236 257 | 258 315 244 316 299 Cote d'Iv.| 82 | 56 57 | 67 92 56 78 35 Senegal | 5 | 26 28 | 75 87 37 62 57 RSA | 126 | 114 113 | 90 111 103 87 103 | | | W HEMIS. | 802 | 1,354 1,585 | 513 663 771 779 656 Canada | 97 | 117 127 | 91 98 88 109 96 Mexico | 215 | 218 327 | 177 249 118 87 198 Haiti | 103 | 106 148 | 43 117 97 34 17 Jamaica | 67 | 57 74 | 63 30 56 74 68 Brazil | 1 | 388 368 | 12 0 187 295 0 | | | Total | 2,236 | 2,875 3,201 | 2,149 2,075 1,783 2,009 2,137 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census 2/ |2,613 4/| 3,324 | 2,523 2,443 2,113 2,300 2,532 Diff. 3/ |294 5/| 123 | 373 367 329 291 396 ============================================================================== Note: the "U.S. Export Sales Report" reports sales and shipments in product weight. The milled equivalent total may vary significantly from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales Report," FAS, USDA. Columns labeled "as of" represent combined exports plus sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census Bureau rice export total (reported on a milled equivalent basis) is the official export total. 3/ The "U.S. Export Sales Report" does not include U.S. Government exports under under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 4/ USDA forecast, milled equivalent. 5/ The average difference between the Census and the "Export Sales Report" for 1990/91-1994/95. Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present ============================================================================== Month | U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ or | ------------------------- --------------------------------------- marketing | LG 3/ MG 4/ Parboiled 100% 5% par- 15% 35% A.1 6/ year 1/ | Houston Calif. Houston grade B boiled broken broken special ============================================================================== | $/metric ton 7/ 1986/87 | 240 282 311 190 171 173 154 122 1987/88 | 421 366 486 273 261 256 236 204 1988/89 | 324 361 386 292 284 275 256 232 1989/90 | 342 352 400 292 259 262 214 172 1990/91 | 331 347 400 296 277 261 213 169 1991/92 | 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 | 322 383 349 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 | 439 451 480 294 244 243 208 160 | Aug '94 | 313 428 353 259 271 237 222 200 Sep '94 | 309 397 344 267 265 246 233 210 Oct '94 | 304 397 331 272 262 249 238 216 Nov '94 | 298 397 331 272 263 249 236 215 Dec '94 | 298 397 331 270 259 250 237 222 Jan '95 | 298 366 331 282 264 265 252 232 Feb '95 | 298 358 342 289 266 270 255 226 Mar '95 | 298 353 342 292 269 272 253 222 Apr '95 | 298 353 342 290 269 271 254 226 May '95 | 311 353 346 299 274 279 262 239 Jun '95 | 358 353 380 333 305 314 297 276 Jul '95 | 392 353 406 353 341 335 321 297 1994/95 | 314 375 348 290 276 270 255 232 | Aug '95 | 386 364 419 346 343 327 310 288 Sep '95 | 386 380 424 368 354 346 322 285 Oct '95 | 430 432 485 393 373 372 340 293 Nov '95 | 441 441 463 354 342 334 315 296 Dec '95 | 419 496 463 347 337 326 307 278 Jan '96 | 410 507 454 372 355 350 321 271 Feb '96 | 402 474 449 377 357 348 307 256 Mar '96 | 397 463 441 373 350 344 301 260 Apr '96 | 406 459 454 343 320 313 273 246 May '96 8/| 430 441 463 342 309 309 269 243 Jun '96 | Jul '96 | 1995/96 9/| 411 446 452 362 344 337 307 272 ============================================================================== NA = Not available. 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. embassy, Bangkok. 6/ 100 percent broken. 7/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 8/ Preliminary data. 9/ Preliminary. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1990/91 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1995/96 1996/97 Item | 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 | 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN | | | Million acres | Planted | 2.129 2.113 2.408 2.102 2.410 | 2.335 2.122 Harvested | 2.065 2.023 2.372 2.028 2.379 | 2.312 2.073 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 5,221 5,395 5,397 5,082 5,609 | 5,265 5,330 | | | Million hundredweight | Beg. stocks | 13.2 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 | 14.5 17.7 Production | 107.8 109.1 128.0 103.1 133.4 | 121.7 110.5 Imports | 4.3 4.7 5.4 6.2 6.0 | 6.5 7.0 Total supply| 125.3 125.4 146.4 130.9 154.5 | 142.7 135.2 | | Dom. use 4/ | 57.8 61.4 60.8 67.2 59.0 | 65.0 68.0 Exports | 56.0 51.0 64.0 48.6 81.0 | 60.0 53.0 Total use | 113.8 112.4 124.8 115.8 140.0 | 125.0 121.0 | | End. stocks | 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.5 | 17.7 14.2 | Percent | Stocks-use | 10.1 11.6 17.3 13.0 10.3 | 14.2 11.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN | | Million acres | Planted | 0.768 0.771 0.768 0.818 0.943 | 0.786 0.863 Harvested | 0.758 0.758 0.760 0.805 0.937 | 0.781 0.851 | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 6,370 6,627 6,795 6,590 6,866 | 6,676 7,109 | | | Million hundredweight | Beg. stocks | 11.6 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 | 15.8 10.2 Production | 48.3 50.2 51.6 53.0 64.3 | 52.1 60.5 Imports | 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 | 1.0 1.0 Total supply| 60.5 62.4 64.8 70.9 74.9 | 69.4 71.7 | | Dom. use 4/ | 33.8 34.1 35.9 34.3 39.2 | 39.2 39.1 Exports | 15.0 15.4 13.0 26.6 19.9 | 20.0 22.0 Total use | 48.8 49.5 48.9 60.9 59.1 | 59.2 61.1 | | End. stocks | 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 | 10.2 10.6 | Percent | Stocks-use | 24.0 26.1 32.4 16.4 26.8 | 17.2 17.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ End. stocks | difference 1/| 1.4 1.4 2.0 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.7 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the totals for all types in table 1. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. END-END-END