RICE OUTLOOK June 13, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. RCS--0696. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o The 1996/97 range for the U.S. season average farm price (SAFP) is $8.00 to $9.00 per cwt. o The forecast range for the 1995/96 U.S. SAFP was raised to $8.95 to $9.15 per cwt, increasing both the low end and the high end by 10 cents. o U.S. 1996/97 production is projected down 1.7 percent from 1995/96. Tight long grain supplies are likely to support domestic prices and limit export availability. High quality medium grain exports are projected to expand. NEAR-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: U.S. PRICES BOLSTERED BY HIGH GRAIN AND SOYBEAN PRICES The 1996/97 season average farm price (SAFP) is projected to range from $8.00 to $9.00 per cwt. The SAFP is likely to stay firm as expectations of relatively strong export demand for high-quality long and medium grain rice, rising domestic use, and high prices for other grains, combine to support U.S. rice prices. However, with exports accounting for around 40 percent of total disappearance, global rice production and consumption in 1996/97 will continue to influence U.S. farm prices. The 1995/96 SAFP is forecast at $8.95 to $9.15 per cwt, up substantially from 1994/95's $6.78. Strong world import demand in the first half of the August/July marketing year, tight international long-grain supplies-- particularly of high-quality rice, a small 1995 U.S. crop, and prospects for a small 1996 U.S. crop are supporting U.S. long-grain export and farm prices. U.S. farm level rice prices strengthened in April and May. Expectations of a smaller 1996/97 crop, soaring wheat, corn, and soybean prices, and expectations for greater high quality rice exports are supporting U.S. rice prices. In the first 10 months of the 1995/96 marketing year, the U.S. monthly weighted average farm price equaled $8.98 per cwt and the simple average farm price was $8.94 per cwt. In May, USDA estimated May's mid-month farm price at $9.45 per cwt. The April estimate was raised to $9.34, from a preliminary $9.18. Farm prices must average about $9.40 per cwt for the remainder of the marketing year for the SAFP to equal the midpoint ($9.05) of the projected range. U.S. f.o.b., No. 2, 4-percent broken (high-quality long-grain) offer quotes out of Houston have remained steady at $430 per ton since early May, the highest since November 1995. Similar type and quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B) f.o.b. offer quotes out of Bangkok have risen since early May, reaching $359 per ton in late May and averaging $356 in the first half of June. Strong trade demand for high-quality rice, plus expectations of greater rice imports by the Philippines and Iraq later this year are behind much of the recent price strength for high-quality long-grain rice. In May, the United Nations granted Iraq the authority to sell $2 billion in oil to pay UN reparations and to purchase food and medicine. Iraq was a major rice importer in the 1980's and is expected to import at least 500,000 metric tons before the end of 1996. The U.S. accounted for most of Iraq's rice imports from 1985 to 1990, shipping an annual average of 450,000 tons. Almost all of this rice was exported with U.S. export credit guarantees which are currently unavailable to Iraq. The steady up-tick in Thai prices since April has reduced the high quality long-grain price premium of U.S. rice over Thai rice to $74 per ton from $83 in May. However, this premium is the second largest since November 1995. Traditionally, U.S. rice is thought to be competitive in international markets with a premium of $30-50 over Thai rice. The premium is likely to remain wide as a smaller U.S. long grain crop in 1996 will reduce available supplies. Prices for U.S. medium grain (No. 1, 4-percent broken, f.o.b. California), at $441 per metric ton, have maintained a premium of $11 per ton over U.S. long grain (No. 2, 4-percent broken, f.o.b. Gulf port) since late April. This is the smallest premium since last November. The small premium is partly because Japan has not been in the market recently, after making large purchases earlier this year. The premium was $97 in January, the highest thus far for 1995/96. South Korea just announced it will accept bids on June 19 for rice imports to meet GATT import requirements for 1996. U.S. medium grain prices could strengthen if South Korea turns to the United States to meet 1996 GATT requirements. LONGER TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: TRADE DEMAND TO KEEP HIGH QUALITY PRICES FIRM International rice prices recovered in late May and early June after falling for most of April and the first half of May. International prices, which were supported in the summer and early fall of 1995 by large Asian demand and tight international supplies, weakened in late 1995 as the outlook for good harvests in Asia reduced import demand and increased exportable supplies. In late April, high-quality export prices were $340 per ton (100 percent B, f.o.b. Bangkok), down from $373 in March. Prices for high quality long-grain rice began to rise again in May, reaching $359 by the end of the month and have averaged $356 per ton in June. Strong import demand by China, Malaysia, and the Middle East are behind this recent price strength for high quality long grain rice. Lower quality rice prices have been falling since November. Prices for lower quality rice dropped in the first half of May. A.1 Special (100 percent broken, f.o.b. Bangkok) quotes fell to $241 per ton by the middle of the month, from an average of $260 in March and $245 in April. Low quality prices rose slightly in late May before dropping again in early June. Ample supplies and little interest from importers account for the drop in low-quality rice prices. Minimal 1994/95 ending stocks in Thailand and a reduced U.S. crop, kept high- quality long grain stocks fairly tight entering 1996, despite an estimated near-record Thai main-season harvest in November. As a result, the high- quality price premium measured by the difference between Bangkok's f.o.b price quotes for 100 percent grade B and for A.1 Special rose to $121 per ton in February, but declined to $103 by May. Recent price strength in the high- quality import market has pushed the premium up to $112. In 1994/95, the high-quality price premium averaged $58 per ton. Prices for high quality long grain rice should strengthen further when Iraq begins to purchase rice and Indonesia resumes purchasing after the summer. The high quality price premium over low quality could begin to widen again in a few months as exports of high-quality rice remain relatively strong while demand for low quality rice weakens further. INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND PRODUCTION OUTLOOK FOR 1996/97 Global production and consumption are each projected to reach records in 1996/97, both rising about 1 percent from 1995/96. Production, forecast to rise to 375 million tons (milled basis), will be nearly 3.5 million tons short of consumption, pulling ending stocks down 7 percent from 1995/96. The ending stocks-to-use ratio is projected to drop to 11.4 percent. Global imports of medium-grain rice should remain strong in 1996 as Japan and South Korea meet gradually rising Uruguay Round rice import obligations. International demand for high-quality long grain imports will also remain strong. USDA will release its first country level projections for 1996/97 in July. U.S. SITUATION AND OUTLOOK IN 1996/97 USDA projects the 1996 rice crop at 171 million cwt, down nearly 2 percent from 1995. Carryin stocks are also lower and total supplies of 208 million cwt are projected to be 2 percent lower than in 1995. Disappearance is projected down 1 percent to 182 million cwt. Growth in food use will only partly offset lower exports. Ending stocks are projected 11 percent lower than in 1995/96 at 25.5 million cwt, with the ending stocks-to- use ratio declining to 14 from 15.5 in 1995/96. USDA's projected 1996 crop is based on farmer planting intentions, average abandonment, and the 1991-95 average yield. In March, producers indicated that they would plant 2.985 million acres. As of June 10, 96 percent of the rice crop had emerged compared with 92 percent last year and 89 percent for the average. On June 9, 73 percent of the crop was rated in good or excellent condition, with just 3 percent rated in poor condition. A breakdown of U.S. rice acreage by State indicates a decrease in long grain production of 9 percent to 110.5 million cwt. However, combined medium and short grain production is projected to rise 16 percent to 60.5 million cwt. Long grain supplies are projected to tighten because of reduced production and smaller carry-in stocks. Increased production will allow medium and short grain supplies to expand despite reduced carryin stocks. Strong demand for long grain rice is projected to lower 1996/97 ending stocks 20 percent to 14.2 million cwt, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 11.7 percent, down from 14.2 percent in 1995/96. The short and medium grain scenario is also relatively tight, with ending stocks projected only slightly higher than in 1995/96 at 10.6 million cwt, and the ending-stocks-to-use ratio at 17.3 percent, nearly the same as in 1995/96. U.S. exports in 1996/97 are projected to be 75 million cwt, down 6 percent from the 1995/96 forecast. Reduced U.S. long grain supplies and continued strong domestic growth in food use will support farm prices and help widen the premium between U.S. high-quality long grain prices and those of Asian exporters. However, long grain rough rice exports to Latin America are likely to remain strong. And, high-quality medium grain exports are projected to expand as Japan and South Korea increase imports as part of their GATT minimum access commitments, and as traditional medium grain importers, such as Turkey, continue importing U.S. rice. The Prospective Plantings report released on March 29, 1996, was the first information available on 1996 production. The planting intentions are based primarily on farm operator surveys taken during the first 2 weeks of March. As the planting period proceeds, producers may revise their intentions due to changes in the weather, prices of alternative crops, economic conditions, and/or availability of inputs. On June 28, NASS will publish new planted and harvested acreage estimates. On August 12, USDA will report rice production based on objective yield and farm operator surveys. U.S. SITUATION AND OUTLOOK FOR 1995/96 U.S. 1995 rice production is estimated at 173.9 million cwt, down 12 percent from 1994's record 197.8 million cwt. Total 1995/96 domestic use is forecast to be a record 104.2 million cwt on the strength of 4 percent growth in food use to a record 77-million cwt. U.S. rice exports and sales commitments combined are running 23 percent behind last year's pace through the first 10 months of the marketing year, according to the U.S. Export Sales report of June 6, 1996. The pace supports USDA's 1995/96 U.S. export forecast of 80 million cwt. Lower production and relatively strong domestic use and exports are expected to reduce 1995/96 U.S. rice ending stocks to 28.6 million cwt (rough), down 9 percent from a year earlier. The ending stocks would represent 15.5 percent of total use, only slightly below those of 1994/95. INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION AND TRADE OUTLOOK FOR 1995/96 Global 1995/96 rice production was revised down this month primarily because the government of China estimated its 1995 production 3.4 million metric tons below previous USDA forecasts. Global consumption and 1996 exports were revised up slightly from last month. The revisions lowered global ending stocks to 46.6 million tons, almost 3.4 million below last month's projections and 3 million below 1994/95. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected to be 12.4 percent. Exports in 1996 are projected down 13 percent from last year to 18.1 million tons, reflecting a large drop in imports by Bangladesh, China, and Indonesia as 1995/96 production in these countries returns to normal. However, trade is forecast to be the second highest on record. Adding strength to trade in 1996 are expectations of substantially greater imports by Brazil, the Philippines, and Iraq as well as large exportable supplies in Thailand, India, and Vietnam. The Philippines and Iraq account for most of this month's revision in global exports from the May forecast. Continued high internal prices pushed the Philippines to purchase more rice recently, raising its projected 1996 imports to 1.2 million tons from 1 million previously forecast. Additionally, because of the agreement between the United Nations and Iraq clearing the way for Iraq's limited export of oil to finance food imports, Iraq's expected 1996 rice imports have been raised to 500,000 metric tons from 200,000 last month. USDA lowered Indonesia's import forecast by 250,000 tons to 1.25 million for 1996, down from 3 million in 1995. Exports were increased this month for India and Vietnam, but decreased for Burma. India's 1996 export forecast was raised 200,000 metric tons to 3 million in June. A strong pace of shipments to date, and continued demand from neighboring Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, backed the June increase in 1996 exports. Vietnam's rice exports were revised up 200,000 metric tons from May to 2.2 million. Burma's shipments have dropped off markedly as the government has placed a temporary moratorium on new sales to prevent domestic shortages given Burma's low dry season crop. The forecast for 1996 U.S. exports remains at 2.7 million tons, unchanged from last month and 12 percent below 1995. The United States accounts for 15 percent of world rice trade. ****************************************************************************** * INFORMATION CONTACTS AT THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE: * * Nathan Childs, domestic (202) 501-8513 * * Carol Whitton, international (202) 219-0825 * * * * Next month's Rice Outlook will be available on July 15, 1996. * ****************************************************************************** Note: Detailed 1996/97 foreign supply and use forecasts will be published on July 15 in the Foreign Agricultural Service's Grain: World Markets and Trade. Tables: Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1990/91 to present Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1993/94 to present Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1993/94 to present Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1989/90 to present Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1990/91 to 1996/97 Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1990/91 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1995/96 1996/97 Item | 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 | 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== | | TOTAL RICE | Percent | | | ARP | 20 5 0 5 0 | 5 N/A | | Area | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.897 2.884 3.176 2.920 3.353 | 3.121 2.985 Harvested | 2.823 2.781 3.132 2.833 3.316 | 3.093 2.924 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 5,529 5,731 5,736 5,510 5,964 | 5,621 5,848 | | | Million hundredweight | | | Beg. stocks | 26.3 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 | 31.4 28.6 Production | 156.1 159.4 179.7 156.1 197.8 | 173.9 171.0 Imports | 4.8 5.3 6.1 6.9 7.0 | 7.5 8.0 Total supply| 187.2 189.2 213.2 202.5 230.6 | 212.8 207.6 | | Food | 63.7 67.1 69.0 71.2 74.0 | 77.0 80.0 Seed | 3.6 3.9 3.6 4.2 4.1 | 4.1 4.0 Brewer's use | 15.3 15.5 15.1 15.1 15.2 | 15.1 15.1 Residual 4/ | 9.0 9.0 9.0 11.0 5.0 | 8.0 8.0 Domestic use| 91.6 95.5 96.7 101.5 98.3 | 104.2 107.1 | | Exports | 71.0 66.4 77.0 75.2 100.9 | 80.0 75.0 Rough | 4.8 6.3 5.1 3.6 18.5 | 11.0 12.0 Mld(rgh eq)| 66.2 60.1 71.9 71.5 82.4 | 69.0 63.0 Total use | 162.6 161.9 173.7 176.7 199.2 | 184.2 182.1 | | End. stocks | 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.4 | 28.6 25.5 CCC inv. | 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 | 0.0 0.0 Free stocks | 24.5 27.0 39.3 25.8 31.3 | 28.6 25.5 | | | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 15.1 16.9 22.7 14.6 15.8 | 15.5 14.0 | | | $/cwt | Average farm | | 8.95 8.00 rice 5/ | 6.68 7.58 5.89 7.98 6.78 | 9.15 9.00 | | | Percent | Average | | milling rate | 72.0 70.5 70.0 74.0 73.0 | 72.0 72.0 ============================================================================== N/A= not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. 5/ Marketing year weighted average price received. Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1993/94 to present ============================================================================= | 1995/96 1994/95 1993/94 | -------------------- ------------------- ------------------- Month | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================= Aug | 7.64 9,935 6.87 11,534 5.19 12,411 Sep | 7.95 12,010 6.89 12,610 5.21 12,950 Oct | 8.77 12,493 6.47 13,381 6.10 14,804 Nov | 9.12 12,951 6.53 15,470 8.06 15,228 Dec | 9.36 12,503 6.56 17,479 8.91 12,722 Jan | 9.33 13,130 6.78 17,781 8.98 14,106 Feb | 9.10 11,898 6.71 16,050 10.10 9,750 Mar | 9.31 14,690 6.64 17,565 10.20 11,594 Apr | 9.34 13,562 6.70 12,425 9.93 8,113 May | 9.45 1/ 12,575 6.75 16,848 10.00 7,854 Jun | 7.03 13,793 8.88 8,708 Jul | 7.17 9,847 7.80 7,986 | Average 2/ | 8.98 12,575 6.78 14,565 7.98 11,352 | 8.95-9.15 3/ Total 4/ | 174,783 5/ 136,226 ============================================================================= 1/ Preliminary midmonth price estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1995/96 is for August to current month. 3/ 1995/96 price range is a USDA projection. 4/ Total volume marketed. 5/ Preliminary; final 1994/95 marketings available in July 1996. Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1993/94 to present 1/ ============================================================================ | 1995/96 1994/95 1993/94 Month 2/ | -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ============================================================================ | $/cwt Aug | 7.93 6.22 6.06 5.33 5.64 5.33 4.11 3.76 3.57 Sep | 8.02 6.30 6.13 5.62 5.67 5.36 4.20 3.84 3.65 Oct | 8.81 6.67 6.51 5.74 5.61 5.32 4.88 4.48 4.26 Nov | 8.47 6.82 6.63 5.85 5.59 5.31 6.56 6.15 5.86 Dec | 8.17 7.16 6.95 5.82 5.59 5.31 7.26 6.85 6.53 Jan | 8.11 7.19 7.13 6.21 5.62 5.58 7.35 7.00 6.73 Feb | 7.90 7.49 7.67 6.41 5.70 5.66 7.49 7.31 7.20 Mar | 7.97 7.38 7.55 6.41 5.74 5.70 7.29 7.30 7.18 Apr | 7.68 7.25 7.42 6.41 5.74 5.70 6.48 7.25 7.11 May | 7.38 7.17 7.35 6.56 5.87 5.82 5.91 7.19 7.03 Jun 3/ | 7.56 7.27 7.45 7.38 6.03 6.00 5.32 7.05 6.87 Jul | 7.63 6.10 6.06 5.22 6.27 6.12 | Average 2/| 8.00 6.99 6.99 6.28 5.74 5.59 6.00 6.20 6.01 ============================================================================ 1/ Loan rate basis (rough); repayment rates for 1989-94 crops are the higher of the world price or 70 percent of the loan rate for the specified class of rice. 2/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. 3/ Preliminary. The 1995/96 average is for August to current month. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1989/90 to present 1/ ============================================================================== |1995/96 |1994/95 | Country |--------|--------1994/95 |1993/94 1992/93 1991/92 1990/91 1989/90 or | as of | as of | region |05/2/96 |05/02/95 Final | Final Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== | | | | | | 1,000 metric tons | | | Eur. Union | 407 | 462 474 | 362 362 263 383 359 O W Eur | 18 | 22 22 | 18 47 44 46 40 Turkey | 160 | 238 259 | 67 191 154 153 138 East Eur. | 34 | 62 58 | 10 46 39 30 20 FSU | 36 | 24 18 | 4 15 42 0 0 | | | Japan | 192 | 1 2 | 568 0 0 0 0 | | | OTH ASIA/ME| 348 | 567 527 | 349 438 228 304 613 Iran | 72 | 268 191 | 121 130 7 0 0 Iraq | 0 | 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 299 S. Arabia | 142 | 129 153 | 157 205 146 180 145 | | | AFRICA | 297 | 257 257 | 258 315 244 316 299 Cote d'Iv.| 82 | 56 57 | 67 92 56 78 35 Senegal | 5 | 33 28 | 75 87 37 62 57 RSA | 127 | 125 113 | 90 111 103 87 103 | | | W HEMIS. | 895 | 1,450 1,585 | 513 663 771 779 656 Canada | 101 | 127 127 | 91 98 88 109 96 Mexico | 264 | 251 327 | 177 249 118 87 198 Haiti | 105 | 131 148 | 43 117 97 34 17 Jamaica | 75 | 77 74 | 63 30 56 74 68 Brazil | 1 | 368 368 | 12 0 187 295 0 | | | Total | 2,388 | 3,086 3,201 | 2,149 2,075 1,783 2,009 2,137 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census 2/ |2,613 4/| 3,324 | 2,523 2,443 2,113 2,300 2,532 Diff. 3/ | 294 5/| 123 | 373 367 329 291 396 ============================================================================== Note: the "U.S. Export Sales Report" reports sales and shipments in product weight. The milled equivalent total may vary significantly from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales Report," FAS, USDA. Columns labeled "as of" represent combined exports plus sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census Bureau rice export total (reported on a milled equivalent basis) is the official export total. 3/ The "U.S. Export Sales Report" does not include U.S. Government exports under under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 4/ USDA forecast, milled equivalent. 5/ The average difference between the Census and the "Export Sales Report" for 1990/91-1994/95. Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present ============================================================================== Month | U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ or | ------------------------- --------------------------------------- marketing | LG 3/ MG 4/ Parboiled 100% 5% par- 15% 35% A.1 6/ year 1/ | Houston Calif. Houston grade B boiled broken broken special ============================================================================== | | $/metric ton 7/ | 1986/87 | 240 282 311 190 171 173 154 122 1987/88 | 421 366 486 273 261 256 236 204 1988/89 | 324 361 386 292 284 275 256 232 1989/90 | 342 352 400 292 259 262 214 172 1990/91 | 331 347 400 296 277 261 213 169 1991/92 | 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 | 322 383 349 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 | 439 451 480 294 244 243 208 160 | Aug '94 | 313 428 353 259 271 237 222 200 Sep '94 | 309 397 344 267 265 246 233 210 Oct '94 | 304 397 331 272 262 249 238 216 Nov '94 | 298 397 331 272 263 249 236 215 Dec '94 | 298 397 331 270 259 250 237 222 Jan '95 | 298 366 331 282 264 265 252 232 Feb '95 | 298 358 342 289 266 270 255 226 Mar '95 | 298 353 342 292 269 272 253 222 Apr '95 | 298 353 342 290 269 271 254 226 May '95 | 311 353 346 299 274 279 262 239 Jun '95 | 358 353 380 333 305 314 297 276 Jul '95 | 392 353 406 353 341 335 321 297 1994/95 | 314 375 348 290 276 270 255 232 | Aug '95 | 386 364 419 346 343 327 310 288 Sep '95 | 386 380 424 368 354 346 322 285 Oct '95 | 430 432 485 393 373 372 340 293 Nov '95 | 441 441 463 354 342 334 315 296 Dec '95 | 419 496 463 347 337 326 307 278 Jan '96 | 410 507 454 372 355 350 321 271 Feb '96 | 402 474 449 377 357 348 307 256 Mar '96 | 397 463 441 373 350 344 301 260 Apr '96 | 406 459 454 342 316 310 272 245 May '96 | 430 441 471 347 318 312 272 244 Jun '96 8/| 430 441 474 356 337 319 275 244 Jul '96 | 1995/96 9/| 412 445 454 361 344 335 304 269 ============================================================================== NA = Not available. 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. embassy, Bangkok. 6/ 100 percent broken. 7/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 8/ Preliminary data. 9/ Preliminary. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1990/91 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1995/96 1996/97 Item | 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 | 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN | | | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.129 2.113 2.408 2.102 2.410 | 2.335 Harvested | 2.065 2.023 2.372 2.028 2.379 | 2.312 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 5,221 5,395 5,397 5,082 5,609 | 5,265 | | | Million hundredweight | | | Beg. stocks | 13.2 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 | 14.5 17.7 Production | 107.8 109.1 128.0 103.1 133.4 | 121.7 110.5 Imports | 4.3 4.7 5.4 6.2 6.0 | 6.5 7.0 Total supply| 125.3 125.4 146.4 130.9 154.5 | 142.7 135.2 | | Dom. use 4/ | 57.8 61.4 60.8 67.2 59.0 | 65.0 68.0 Exports | 56.0 51.0 64.0 48.6 81.0 | 60.0 53.0 Total use | 113.8 112.4 124.8 115.8 140.0 | 125.0 121.0 | | End. stocks | 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.5 | 17.7 14.2 | | | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 10.1 11.6 17.3 13.0 10.3 | 14.2 11.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN | | Million acres | | | Planted | 0.768 0.771 0.768 0.818 0.943 | 0.786 Harvested | 0.758 0.758 0.760 0.805 0.937 | 0.781 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 6,370 6,627 6,795 6,590 6,866 | 6,676 | | | Million hundredweight | | | Beg. stocks | 11.6 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 | 15.8 10.2 Production | 48.3 50.2 51.6 53.0 64.3 | 52.1 60.5 Imports | 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 | 1.0 1.0 Total supply| 60.5 62.4 64.8 70.9 74.9 | 69.4 71.7 | | Dom. use 4/ | 33.8 34.1 35.9 34.3 39.2 | 39.2 39.1 Exports | 15.0 15.4 13.0 26.6 19.9 | 20.0 22.0 Total use | 48.8 49.5 48.9 60.9 59.1 | 59.2 61.1 | | End. stocks | 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 | 10.2 10.6 | | Stocks-to- | Percent | use ratio | 24.0 26.1 32.4 16.4 26.8 | 17.2 17.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ End. stocks | difference 1/| 1.4 1.4 2.0 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.7 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the totals for all types in table 1. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. END-END-END