RICE OUTLOOK July 15, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. RCS--0796. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o The June Acreage report estimates total U.S. rice planted area at 2.91 million acres, down 75,000 from the March Prospective Plantings report and 211,000 below 1995. All of the year-to-year area drop was in long grain, estimated down 12 percent. Medium grain area is estimated up 8.7 percent. o The 1996/97 range for the U.S. season average farm price (SAFP) is $8.50 to $9.50 per cwt, up 50 cents from the June projection on both the low end and the high. o The forecast for the 1995/96 U.S. SAFP was raised to $9.10 per cwt, up 5 cents from the midpoint of last month's forecast range. o U.S. production in 1996/97 is projected down 2.2 percent from 1995/96. Tight long grain supplies are expected to support domestic prices and limit export availability. High quality medium grain exports are projected to rise 15 percent from 1995/96. NEAR-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: STRONG DOMESTIC DEMAND BOLSTERS U.S. PRICES The 1996/97 season average farm price (SAFP) is projected to be $8.50 to $9.50 per cwt. The SAFP is likely to remain firm as expectations of relatively strong export demand for high-quality long and medium grain rice, continued rising domestic food use, a smaller U.S. crop, and high prices for other grains combine to support U.S. rice prices. However, with exports accounting for around 40 percent of total disappearance, activities in the global rice market in 1996/97 will continue to affect U.S. farm prices. The 1995/96 season average farm price is estimated to be $9.10 per cwt, up substantially from 1994/95's $6.78. Strong world import demand in the first half of the August/July marketing year, continued tight international long- grain supplies--particularly of high-quality rice--and a smaller 1995 U.S. rice crop are supporting U.S. long-grain export and farm prices. U.S. farm level rice prices strengthened in May and have remained strong through June. In the first 11 months of the 1995/96 marketing year, the U.S. monthly weighted average farm price was $9.05 per cwt and the simple average farm price was $9.01 per cwt. Last month, USDA estimated June's mid-month farm price at $9.55 per cwt and raised the May estimate to $9.69 from a preliminary $9.34. Farm prices must average $9.65 per cwt in July for the 1995/96 SAFP to equal $9.10. TRADE DEMAND TO KEEP HIGH QUALITY PRICES FIRM International prices, which were supported in the summer and early fall of 1995 by strong Asian demand and tight international supplies, weakened in late 1995 as the outlook for good harvests in Asia reduced import demand and increased exportable supplies. After falling from early April through the first half of May, international prices recovered in late May and early June due to rising import demand and tightening supplies. U.S. f.o.b., No. 2, 4- percent broken (high-quality long-grain rice) offer quotes out of Houston have remained steady at $430 per ton since early May, up from $406 in April and $397 in March, and the highest since November 1995. Similar type and quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B) f.o.b. offer quotes out of Bangkok rose to $359 at the end of May after dropping in April and early May to the low- to mid-$340's, and traded around $355 through the first 3 weeks of June. The Thai price jumped to $371 in late June due to Japan's purchase of 34,500 tons of indica rice from Thailand for processed use, and to tight supplies, partly stemming from flood damage to Thailand's second crop. The Thai price has remained about this level through July 10. Strong import demand for high-quality rice, plus expectations of greater rice imports by the Philippines, Brazil, and Iraq later this year are behind much of the recent price strength for high-quality long grain rice. In May, the United Nations granted Iraq the authority to sell $2 billion in oil to pay UN reparations and to purchase food and medicine. Iraq was a major rice importer in the 1980's and is expected to import at least 500,000 metric tons before the end of 1996. The steady up-tick in Thai prices since May reduced the high quality long- grain price premium of U.S. rice over Thai rice to $59 per ton in early July, down from $70 in June and $83 in May. Traditionally, U.S. rice is thought to be competitive in international markets with a premium of $30-$50 over Thai rice. The premium is likely to remain wide as a smaller U.S. long grain crop in 1996 reduces available supplies. Prices for U.S. medium grain (No. 1, 4-percent broken, f.o.b. California), at $441 per metric ton, have maintained a premium of $11 per ton over U.S. long grain (No. 2, 4-percent broken, f.o.b. Gulf port) since early May. This is the smallest premium since last November. The premium was $97 in January, the highest thus far for 1995/96. The current small premium is partly due to Japan's recent absence from the market for japonica rice, after making large purchases earlier this year, and partly to Korea's purchase of its GATT- required rice from China in June. South Korea had been expected to turn to the U.S. to meet its GATT commitments and/or replenish its stocks. However, in June, South Korea purchased 71,620 metric tons of japonica brown rice from China to meet its GATT import commitments for 1996. Shipments are scheduled for no later than August. Japan is expected to make additional rice purchases in the remaining months of 1996 as part of its GATT commitments. The U.S. is a likely supplier of much of Japan's expected purchases this year. Prices for lower quality rice have been falling since November. Lower quality rice prices have trended down since the start of the year. Quotes for A.1 Special (100 percent broken, f.o.b. Bangkok) averaged $240 per ton in June, down from $244 in May and $260 in March. Low quality prices were around $230 per ton through early July. Ample supplies and little interest from importers account for the steady drop. Minimal 1995/96 beginning stocks in Thailand and a reduced 1995 U.S. crop kept high quality stocks fairly tight entering 1996, despite an estimated near- record Thai main-season harvest in November. As a result, the high quality price premium measured by the difference between Bangkok's f.o.b. price quotes for 100-percent grade B and for A.1 Special rose to $121 per ton in February. Although the premium declined to $103 in May, it has continued to rise since May due to strong demand in the high quality market, reaching $141 by July 10. In 1994/95, the high-quality price premium averaged $58 per ton. High quality rice prices should strengthen further when Iraq begins to purchase rice and Brazil and Indonesia resume purchasing after the summer. The high quality price premium could begin to widen again in a few months as exports of high quality rice remain strong and demand for low quality rice weakens further. INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND PRODUCTION OUTLOOK FOR 1996/97 Global production and consumption are each projected to reach records in 1996/97, with output up 1.5 percent and use rising about 1 percent from 1995/96. Production, forecast to reach 376.5 million tons (milled basis), will be just short of consumption, forecast at 376.7 million. Ending stocks are expected to post a very small drop and the ending stocks-to-use ratio, projected at 12.5 percent, would be just below last year's 12.7 percent. Asia's monsoons began on time this year, but have produced spotty precipitation in some areas and excess in other. Nevertheless, most major rice growing areas received sufficient rain for planting. More rain is needed in southern India, Burma, and Vietnam. But northern India, China, Bangladesh, Thailand, and South Korea have had greater than average rainfall and need drier weather for optimal growing conditions. The heaviest rainfall occurred in central and southern China, causing extensive flooding in the Yangtze River Basin and southwestern hills. These are China's principal rice growing regions and some damage to the early rice crop is likely, but the extent is unknown, and it is too early to evaluate any potential trade impacts. In these parts of China, the growing season is long enough for farmers to replant any lost area with a larger late-rice crop and still produce a year-to-year production increase. Global trade in 1997 is forecast to be up marginally from 1996's 18.1 million metric tons and is forecast to be second only to 1995's record 20.9 million. Continued strong domestic demand in Brazil, China, Indonesia, Iran, and the Philippines is projected to keep imports robust, even with greater production in some of these countries. Greater imports in 1997 by China, Japan, and South Korea will be nearly offset by reduced imports by Bangladesh, the Philippines, and North Korea. Indonesia is forecast to be the largest importer, taking 1.5 million tons, followed by Brazil with 1.25 million. China, Iran, and the Philippines are each projected to import 1 million tons. Both Japan and South Korea will import greater quantities of rice in 1997 under the minimum access agreement of the GATT, boosting import demand for high-quality medium-grain rice. Thailand, the world's largest rice exporter, is forecast to export 5.5 million metric tons in 1997, about the same as this year but below its 1989 record of 6 million. India is projected to rank number 2, shipping 3 million tons--the same as in 1996. Vietnam, with a record crop forecast for 1996/97, is projected to follow, with 2.5 million, up from 2.2 million in 1996. The U.S. is forecast to rank number 4, with exports of 2.3 million tons, down from 2.7 million in 1996. A smaller crop and rising domestic use account for a reduction in U.S. exports. U.S. SITUATION AND OUTLOOK IN 1996/97 In early July, USDA forecast the 1996 rice crop at 170 million cwt, down more than 2 percent from 1995. Carryin stocks are also lower and total supplies of 205 million cwt are projected to be nearly 4 percent lower than in 1995. Disappearance is projected down nearly 4 percent to 179 million cwt. Continued growth in domestic food uses will only partly offset a 10-million- cwt drop in exports. Ending stocks are projected 4 percent lower than in 1995/96 at 25.5 million cwt, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio slightly declining to 14.2 from 14.3 in 1995/96. USDA's projected 1996 crop is based on the June Acreage report, average abandonment, and the 1991-95 average yield adjusted to reflect greater medium grain acreage and smaller total acreage. Medium grain rice has a higher average yield than long grain and farmers typically take their least productive land out of production first. On August 12, USDA will report its first survey-based estimate of 1996 yields. In June, producers indicated that they planted 2.91 million acres, down 2.5 percent from March's Prospective Plantings and nearly 6.8 percent below last year's area. All rice-producing States reported smaller planted acreage than last year except California, which produces mostly medium grain rice. All of the year-to-year decrease in rice area is in long grain, which is estimated down 281,000 acres. Arkansas accounts for most of the decrease in long grain area, losing 160,000 acres, followed by Mississippi with a 70,000- acre drop. Texas and Louisiana each reported a 20,000-acre drop in long grain rice plantings. Virtually all rice produced in Mississippi, Texas, and Missouri is long grain. Medium grain area is up 67,000 acres nationwide, with Arkansas posting a 60,000 acre increase and California reporting 52,000 more rice acres. Louisiana was the only State to report a drop in medium grain acres, down 45,000 from 1995. The Louisiana Gulf Coast has low yields and high costs compared with other southern rice producing States. The 1996 FAIR Act has decoupled farm planting decisions from government payments, allowing market signals to largely determine plantings. Two major changes were noted. First, historically high prices at planting for corn, other feed grains, and soybeans account for much of the year-to-year drop in rice area. And second, a price premium for high quality medium grain rice (California #1, 4-percent brokens) over long grain, and higher yields for medium grain rice account for most of the shift to medium grain acreage. The 1996 rice crop appears to be progressing very well. As of July 7, 12 percent of the rice crop had headed, 1 percentage point behind last year and the 5 year average. No rice in Arkansas and in California had headed by that date. On July 7, 80 percent of the crop was rated in good or excellent condition, with just 3 percent rated in poor condition. A breakdown of U.S. rice acreage by State and type indicates a decrease in long grain production of 10 percent to 109.5 million cwt. However, medium and short grain production is projected to rise 16 percent to 60.5 million cwt. Long grain supplies are projected to tighten because of reduced production, smaller carryin stocks, and steady growth in domestic demand. Increased production will allow medium and short grain supplies to expand despite reduced carryin stocks. Strong demand for long grain rice is projected to lower 1996/97 long grain ending stocks more than 3 percent to 15.2 million cwt. The long grain stocks- to-use ratio will increase slightly to 13 percent due to a forecast 8-percent drop in use. The short and medium grain scenario is also relatively tight, with ending stocks projected to drop almost 6 percent to 9.6 million cwt in 1996/97, and the ending stocks-to-use ratio to drop to 15.4 percent from 17.2 percent in 1995/96. U.S. exports in 1996/97 are projected to be 72 million cwt, down 12 percent from the 1995/96 forecast. Reduced U.S. long grain supplies and continued strong domestic growth in food use will support farm prices and help widen of the premium between U.S. high quality long grain prices and those of Asian exporters. However, long grain rough rice exports to Latin America are likely to remain strong. And, high quality medium grain exports are projected to expand as Japan increase imports as part of its GATT minimum access commitments, and as traditional U.S. medium grain importers, such as Turkey, continue importing U.S. rice. U.S. SITUATION AND OUTLOOK FOR 1995/96 U.S. 1995 rice production is estimated at 173.9 million cwt, down 12 percent from 1994's record 197.8 million cwt. Total 1995/96 domestic use is forecast to be a record 104.2 million cwt on the strength of 4 percent growth in food use to a record 77 million cwt. U.S. rice exports and sales commitments combined are running 23 percent behind last year's pace through the first 11 months of the marketing year, according to the U.S. Export Sales report of July 11, 1996. The pace supports USDA's 1995/96 U.S. export forecast of 82 million cwt. Lower production and relatively strong domestic use and exports are expected to reduce 1995/96 U.S. rice ending stocks to 26.6 million cwt (rough), down more than 15 percent from a year earlier. The ending stocks would equal 14.3 percent of total use, a drop of 1.5 percentage points from 1994/95. INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION AND TRADE OUTLOOK FOR 1995/96 World rice production and consumption are forecast to reach records in 1995/96, with use exceeding output by over 2 million tons, pulling ending stocks down 2.15 million tons from 1994/95. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected to be 12.7 percent. Exports in 1996 are projected down 13 percent from last year to 18.1 million tons, reflecting a large drop in imports by Bangladesh, China, and Indonesia as 1995/96 production in these countries returns to normal. However, trade would still be second only to 1995's record and is almost tied with the forecasts for 1997 trade. Adding strength to trade in 1996 are expectations of substantially greater imports by Brazil, the Philippines, and Iraq. Trade will also be facilitated by large exportable supplies in Thailand, India, and Vietnam that will prevent any sustained upward price pressure in the low and medium quality import markets. Global imports of medium-grain rice should remain strong in 1996 as Japan and South Korea meet gradually rising Uruguay Round rice import obligations. International demand for high-quality long grain imports will also remain strong in 1996 as Brazil, Iran, and the Philippines remain major importers and China, already a major importer, increases purchases. However, lower imports by Bangladesh, due to larger production this year, will limit price strength. The forecast for 1996 U.S. exports remains at 2.7 million tons, unchanged from last month and 12 percent below 1995. The United States accounts for 15 percent of world rice trade. ****************************************************************************** * INFORMATION CONTACTS AT THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE: * * Nathan Childs, domestic (202) 501-8513 * * Carol Whitton, international (202) 219-0825 * * * * Next month's Rice Outlook will be available on August 13, 1996. * ****************************************************************************** Note: Detailed 1996/97 foreign supply and use forecasts is published on July 15 in the Foreign Agricultural Service's Grain: World Markets and Trade. Tables: Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1990/91 to present Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1993/94 to present Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1993/94 to present Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1990/91 to present Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1990/91 to 1996/97. Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1990/91 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1995/96 1996/97 Item | 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 | 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== | | TOTAL RICE | Percent | | | ARP | 20 5 0 5 0 | 5 N/A | | Area | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.897 2.884 3.176 2.920 3.353 | 3.121 2.910 Harvested | 2.823 2.781 3.132 2.833 3.316 | 3.093 2.879 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 5,529 5,731 5,736 5,510 5,964 | 5,621 5,905 | | | Million hundredweight | | | Beginning | | stocks | 26.3 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 | 31.4 26.6 Production | 156.1 159.4 179.7 156.1 197.8 | 173.9 170.0 Imports | 4.8 5.3 6.1 6.9 7.0 | 7.5 8.0 Total supply | 187.2 189.2 213.2 202.5 230.6 | 212.8 204.6 | | Food | 63.7 67.1 69.0 71.2 74.0 | 77.0 80.0 Seed | 3.6 3.9 3.6 4.2 4.1 | 4.1 4.0 Brewer's use | 15.3 15.5 15.1 15.1 15.2 | 15.1 15.1 Residual 4/ | 9.0 8.9 9.0 11.0 5.0 | 8.0 8.0 Domestic use | 91.6 95.4 96.7 101.5 98.3 | 104.2 107.1 | | Exports | 71.0 66.4 77.0 75.2 100.9 | 82.0 72.0 Rough | 4.8 6.3 5.1 3.6 18.5 | 11.0 12.0 Milled 5/ | 66.2 60.1 71.9 71.5 82.4 | 71.0 60.0 Total use | 162.6 161.8 173.7 176.7 199.2 | 186.2 179.1 | | Ending stocks | 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.4 | 26.6 25.5 CCC inventory| 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 | 0.0 0.0 Free stocks | 24.5 27.0 39.3 25.8 31.3 | 26.6 25.5 | | | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 15.1 16.9 22.7 14.6 15.8 | 14.3 14.2 | | | $/cwt | 8.50 Average farm | | to price 6/ | 6.68 7.58 5.89 7.98 6.78 | 9.10 9.50 | | | Percent | Average | | milling rate | 72.0 70.5 70.0 74.0 73.0 | 72.0 72.0 ============================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Estimate. 3/ Projection. 4/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Marketing year weighted average of prices received. Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1993/94 to present ============================================================================= | 1995/96 1994/95 1993/94 | -------------------- ------------------- ------------------- Month | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================= | August | 7.64 9,935 6.87 11,534 5.19 12,411 September | 7.95 12,010 6.89 12,610 5.21 12,950 October | 8.77 12,493 6.47 13,381 6.10 14,804 November | 9.12 12,951 6.53 15,470 8.06 15,228 December | 9.36 12,503 6.56 17,479 8.91 12,722 January | 9.33 13,130 6.78 17,781 8.98 14,106 February | 9.10 11,898 6.71 16,050 10.10 9,750 March | 9.31 14,690 6.64 17,565 10.20 11,594 April | 9.34 13,562 6.70 12,425 9.93 8,113 May | 9.69 11,538 6.75 16,848 10.00 7,854 June | 9.55 1/ 12,471 7.03 13,793 8.88 8,708 July | 7.17 9,847 7.80 7,986 | Average 2/ | 9.05 12,471 6.78 14,565 7.98 11,352 | 8.50-9.50 3/ Total 4/ | 137,181 174,783 136,226 ============================================================================= 1/ Preliminary midmonth price estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1995/96 is for August to current month. 3/ 1995/96 price is a USDA projection. 4/ Total volume marketed. Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1993/94 to present 1/ ============================================================================ | 1995/96 1994/95 1993/94 Month 2/ | -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ============================================================================ | | $/cwt | August | 7.93 6.22 6.06 5.33 5.64 5.33 4.11 3.76 3.57 September | 8.02 6.30 6.13 5.62 5.67 5.36 4.20 3.84 3.65 October | 8.81 6.67 6.51 5.74 5.61 5.32 4.88 4.48 4.26 November | 8.47 6.82 6.63 5.85 5.59 5.31 6.56 6.15 5.86 December | 8.17 7.16 6.95 5.82 5.59 5.31 7.26 6.85 6.53 January | 8.11 7.19 7.13 6.21 5.62 5.58 7.35 7.00 6.73 February | 7.90 7.49 7.67 6.41 5.70 5.66 7.49 7.31 7.20 March | 7.97 7.38 7.55 6.41 5.74 5.70 7.29 7.30 7.18 April | 7.68 7.25 7.42 6.41 5.74 5.70 6.48 7.25 7.11 May | 7.38 7.17 7.35 6.56 5.87 5.82 5.91 7.19 7.03 June | 7.64 7.42 7.60 7.38 6.03 6.00 5.32 7.05 6.87 July 2/ | 7.77 7.81 8.01 7.63 6.10 6.06 5.22 6.27 6.12 | Average 3/| 7.99 7.07 7.08 6.28 5.74 5.59 6.00 6.20 6.01 ============================================================================ 1/ Loan rate basis (rough); repayment rates for 1989-94 crops are the higher of the world price or 70 percent of the loan rate for the specified class of rice. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1990/91 to present 1/ ============================================================================== |1995/96 |1994/95 Country |--------|------- or | as of | as of 1994/95 1993/94 1992/93 1991/92 1990/91 region | 7/4/96 |7/04/95 Final Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== 1,000 metric tons European Union | 444 | 487 474 362 362 263 383 Other W. Europe | 19 | 38 22 18 47 44 46 Turkey | 187 | 273 259 67 191 154 153 Eastern Europe | 34 | 62 58 10 46 39 30 Former Soviet Union | 37 | 24 18 4 15 42 0 | | Japan | 192 | 2 2 568 0 0 0 | | OTHER ASIA AND | | THE MIDDLE EAST | 354 | 606 527 349 438 228 304 Iran | 72 | 266 191 121 130 7 0 Iraq | 0 | 0 0 0 0 0 0 Saudi Arabia | 142 | 166 153 157 205 146 180 | | AFRICA | 341 | 318 257 258 315 244 316 Cote d'Ivoire | 82 | 77 57 67 92 56 78 Senegal | 5 | 43 28 75 87 37 62 Rep. of S. Africa | 164 | 125 113 90 111 103 87 | | WESTERN HEMISPHERE | 987 | 1,564 1,585 513 663 771 779 Canada | 111 | 132 127 91 98 88 109 Mexico | 299 | 317 327 177 249 118 87 Haiti | 113 | 140 148 43 117 97 34 Jamaica | 80 | 78 74 63 30 56 74 Brazil | 1 | 368 368 12 0 187 295 | | Total | 2,596 | 3,361 3,201 2,149 2,075 1,783 2,009 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census Bureau 2/ |2,610 4/| 3,324 | 2,523 2,443 2,113 2,300 Difference 3/ | 294 5/| 123 | 373 367 329 291 ============================================================================== Note: the "U.S. Export Sales Report" reports sales and shipments in product weight. The milled equivalent total may vary significantly from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales Report," FAS, USDA. Columns labeled "as of" represent combined exports plus sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census Bureau rice export total (reported on a milled equivalent basis) is the official export total. 3/ The "U.S. Export Sales Report" does not include U.S. Government exports under under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 4/ USDA forecast, milled equivalent. 5/ The average difference between the Census and the "Export Sales Report" for 1990/91-1994/95. Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present ============================================================================== | U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Month | ------------------------- --------------------------------------- or | Long Medium marketing | grain 3/ grain 4/ Parboiled 100% 5% par- 15% 35% A.1 6/ year 1/ | Houston Calif. Houston grade B boiled broken broken special ============================================================================== | | $/metric ton 7/ | 1986/87 | 240 282 311 190 171 173 154 122 1987/88 | 421 366 486 273 261 256 236 204 1988/89 | 324 361 386 292 284 275 256 232 1989/90 | 342 352 400 292 259 262 214 172 1990/91 | 331 347 400 296 277 261 213 169 1991/92 | 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 | 322 383 349 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 | 439 451 480 294 244 243 208 160 | Aug '94 | 313 428 353 259 271 237 222 200 Sep '94 | 309 397 344 267 265 246 233 210 Oct '94 | 304 397 331 272 262 249 238 216 Nov '94 | 298 397 331 272 263 249 236 215 Dec '94 | 298 397 331 270 259 250 237 222 Jan '95 | 298 366 331 282 264 265 252 232 Feb '95 | 298 358 342 289 266 270 255 226 Mar '95 | 298 353 342 292 269 272 253 222 Apr '95 | 298 353 342 290 269 271 254 226 May '95 | 311 353 346 299 274 279 262 239 Jun '95 | 358 353 380 333 305 314 297 276 Jul '95 | 392 353 406 353 341 335 321 297 1994/95 | 314 375 348 290 276 270 255 232 | Aug '95 | 386 364 419 346 343 327 310 288 Sep '95 | 386 380 424 368 354 346 322 285 Oct '95 | 430 432 485 393 373 372 340 293 Nov '95 | 441 441 463 354 342 334 315 296 Dec '95 | 419 496 463 347 337 326 307 278 Jan '96 | 410 507 454 372 355 350 321 271 Feb '96 | 402 474 449 377 357 348 307 256 Mar '96 | 397 463 441 373 350 344 301 260 Apr '96 | 406 459 454 342 316 310 272 245 May '96 | 430 441 471 347 318 312 272 244 Jun '96 | 430 441 474 360 339 322 275 240 Jul '96 8/| 430 441 474 371 346 335 282 230 1995/96 9/| 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 ============================================================================== NA = Not available. 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. embassy, Bangkok. 6/ 100 percent broken. 7/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 8/ Preliminary data. 9/ Preliminary. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1990/91 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1995/96 1996/97 Item | 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 | 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.129 2.113 2.408 2.102 2.410 | 2.335 2.054 Harvested | 2.065 2.023 2.372 2.028 2.379 | 2.312 2.029 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 5,221 5,395 5,397 5,082 5,609 | 5,265 5,397 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 13.2 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 | 14.5 15.7 Production | 107.8 109.1 128.0 103.1 133.4 | 121.7 109.5 Imports | 4.3 4.7 5.4 6.2 6.0 | 6.5 7.0 Total supply| 125.3 125.4 146.4 130.9 154.5 | 142.7 132.2 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 57.8 61.4 60.8 67.2 59.0 | 65.0 68.0 Exports | 56.0 51.0 64.0 48.6 81.0 | 62.0 49.0 Total use | 113.8 112.4 124.8 115.8 140.0 | 127.0 117.0 | | Ending stocks| 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.5 | 15.7 15.2 | | Stocks-to- | Percent | use ratio | 10.1 11.6 17.3 13.0 10.3 | 12.4 13.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN | | Million acres | | | Planted | 0.768 0.771 0.768 0.818 0.943 | 0.786 0.856 Harvested | 0.758 0.758 0.760 0.805 0.937 | 0.781 0.850 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 6,370 6,627 6,795 6,590 6,866 | 6,676 7,118 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 11.6 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 | 15.8 10.2 Production | 48.3 50.2 51.6 53.0 64.3 | 52.1 60.5 Imports | 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 | 1.0 1.0 Total supply| 60.5 62.4 64.8 70.9 74.9 | 69.4 71.7 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 33.8 34.1 35.9 34.3 39.2 | 39.2 39.1 Exports | 15.0 15.4 13.0 26.6 19.9 | 20.0 23.0 Total use | 48.8 49.5 48.9 60.9 59.1 | 59.2 62.1 | | Ending stocks| 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 | 10.2 9.6 | | Stocks-to- | Percent | use ratio | 24.0 26.1 32.4 16.4 26.8 | 17.2 15.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ End. stocks | | difference 1/| 1.4 1.4 2.0 0.7 1.1 | 0.7 0.7 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the stock total for all types of rice in Table 1. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. end end end