RICE OUTLOOK August 13, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. RCS--0896. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o The first survey-based forecast for 1996 pegs the U.S. rice crop at 168.8 million cwt, down 3 percent from last year and 1.2 million cwt below last month's projection--due to a downward revision in yield. o The projected yield was lowered 42 pounds from last month's adjusted trend to 5,863 pounds, but would still be the second highest ever. o Total U.S. rice planted area is unchanged from last month and is projected at 2.91 million acres, 211,000 below 1995. All the area drop is in long grain, projected down 12 percent, medium grain is projected up 8.7 percent. o The U.S. season average farm price (SAFP) for 1996/97 is projected to be $8.75 to $9.75 per cwt, up 25 cents from July's projection on both the low end and the high due to a smaller projected crop and recent strength in monthly prices. o The estimate for the 1995/96 U.S. SAFP remains at 9.10 per cwt. NEAR-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: STRONG DOMESTIC DEMAND SUPPORTS U.S. PRICES The 1996/97 season average farm price (SAFP) is projected to be $8.75 to $9.75 per cwt. The SAFP is likely to remain firm as expectations of relatively strong export demand for high-quality long and medium grain rice, continued rising domestic food use, a smaller U.S. crop, and high prices for other grains combine to support U.S. rice prices. However, with exports accounting for around 40 percent of total disappearance, activities in the global rice market in 1996/97 will continue to affect U.S. farm prices. The 1995/96 season average farm price is estimated to have been $9.10 per cwt, up substantially from 1994/95's $6.78 and the first time the SAFP has exceeded $9 per cwt since 1981/82. Strong world import demand in the first half of the August/July marketing year, tight international supplies of high-quality long grain rice through most of the second half of the marketing year, and a smaller 1995 U.S. rice crop supported U.S. long-grain export and farm prices during the 1995/96 marketing year. U.S. farm level rice prices strengthened in May and remained strong through July. Last month, USDA estimated July's mid-month farm price at $9.68 per cwt and raised the June estimate to $9.74 from a preliminary $9.55. Average monthly farm prices have exceeded $9 per cwt since last November. INTERNATIONAL PRICES FOR HIGH QUALITY RICE SLIP WITH LACK OF NEW SALES While U.S. farm prices have been moving up, international rice prices have recently declined sharply due to the lack of any new sizable sales. Sellers continue to wait for expected large purchases by Iraq, Iran, Brazil, and the Philippines later this year, but as of mid-August such sales have not occurred. Offer quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. out of Bangkok) have fallen from $376 a metric ton in mid-July to $349 by August 7. With a typical 30 day lag between sales and shipments, there is little reason to expect prices to rise much anytime soon. In addition, the quality of Thailand's second crop, harvested in May and June, was higher than previously expected, increasing exportable supplies of high-quality rice. And exportable supplies of high-quality rice will increase sharply in November when Thailand begins to harvests its main crop. After falling from late March through the first half of May, prices for Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) began to recover in late May due to rising import demand and tightening supplies. Thai rice offer quotes rose to $359 a ton at the end of May, up from the low- to mid-$340's in April and early May, and traded around $355 through the first 3 weeks of June. The Thai price jumped to $371 in late June, in part due to Japan's purchase of 34,500 tons of indica rice from Thailand for processed use, and to tight supplies, primarily stemming from flood damage to Thailand's second crop. Similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice--No. 2, 4-percent broken offer quotes out of Houston--remained steady at $430 per ton from early May through early August, up from $406 in April and $397 in March, and the highest monthly price since November 1995. But, by August 12, these prices had jumped to $452 per ton as scarce supplies of high-quality U.S. rice were available for the domestic or export markets. The dropping Thai price in the face of steady U.S. rice prices through early August widened the U.S. premium to $81 per ton, the second highest since November. The up-tick in Thai prices that started in May temporarily reduced the premium of U.S. rice over Thai rice to $59 per ton by early July, down from $83 in May. The premium is expected to widen with the recent jump in U.S. prices and softening Thai prices. U.S. rice is thought to be competitive in world markets with a premium of $30-$50 over Thai rice. Prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (#1, 4 percent brokens, f.o.b.) have remained at $441 per ton since late April, down from over $500 in January and $463 in mid-April. Prices for California medium grain had maintained a premium of $11 per ton over U.S. long grain (No. 2, 4-percent broken, f.o.b. Gulf port) from early May through early August, the smallest premium since last November. The premium was $97 in January, the highest for 1995/96. The recent jump in Texas long grain price has reversed the premium, giving U.S. long grain an $11 a ton premium over California medium grain. The current lack of a price premium for medium grain is largely due to Japan's recent absence from the market for japonica rice, after making large purchases earlier this year, and partly to Korea's purchase of its GATT-required rice from China in June. South Korea had been expected to turn to the U.S. to meet its GATT commitments and/or replenish its stocks. Japan is expected to make additional rice purchases in the remaining months of 1996 as part of its GATT commitments. The U.S. is a likely supplier and California medium grain prices are likely to reflect increased export demand. Prices for lower quality rice have been falling since November. Quotes for A.1 Special (100 percent broken, f.o.b. Bangkok) averaged $229 per ton in July, down from $240 in June and $260 in March. Low quality prices fell to $219 per ton by early August. Ample supplies and little interest from importers account for the steady drop. The recent drop in the high-quality price has reduced the high-quality price premium--measured by the difference between Bangkok's f.o.b. price quotes for 100-percent grade B and for A.1 Special--to $130 in early August. Minimal 1995/96 beginning stocks in Thailand and a reduced 1995 U.S. crop kept high- quality stocks fairly tight entering 1996. As a result, the high-quality price premium rose to $121 per ton in February. Although the premium declined to $97 in April, it continued to rise through mid-July due to strong demand in the high-quality market, reaching $146 by July 17. The high-quality price premium could begin to widen again in a few months as exports of high quality rice pick up and demand for low quality rice weakens further. INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND PRODUCTION OUTLOOK FOR 1996/97 Global production and consumption are each projected to reach records in 1996/97, with output up over 1 percent and use rising nearly 1.3 percent from 1995/96. Production, forecast to reach 375.7 million tons (milled basis), will be short of consumption, forecast at 376.9 million, pulling projected ending stocks down 3 percent to 47.3 million tons, the sixth consecutive annual decline in ending stocks. The ending stocks-to-use ratio, projected at 12.5 percent, would be below last year's 13 percent. Total 1996/97 world production is projected to be down about 1 million tons from last month's estimate. The revision resulted from a 1-million-ton drop in China's 1996/97 projected crop to 130 million tons--due to flood damage-- and a 400,000-ton decrease in Japan's projected crop to 9.3 million tons as area fell more than earlier expected. However, expectations for Vietnam's 1996/97 harvest were increased to a record 17.8 million tons, up 600,000 from last month's projection, largely due to improved weather in July. The Asian monsoon continues to provide good rains in most areas, although flooding is still a concern in China. Heavy rainfall along the Yangtze Valley in central China and into the southwest damaged the early rice harvest in some areas. USDA estimates less than 1 percent of China's early rice area was lost. China's projected rice area has been lowered to 30.7 million hectares from 30.9 million, reducing expected production slightly. However, more late rice likely has been planted than previously expected and, assuming normal weather for the remainder of the season, a large rice crop is still projected. Forecasts for calendar 1996 trade were raised again, to 18.8 million tons, as deliveries to Iran and some smaller importers were stronger than earlier estimated. Continued strong domestic demand in Brazil, China, Indonesia, Iran, and the Philippines is projected to keep imports robust, even with greater production in some of these countries. For 1997, expected trade was increased almost 400,000 tons from last month to 18.6 million tons, the third highest ever, after 1995 and 1996. Revisions in trade projections for China and Vietnam account for most of this month's trade revision. Greater imports in 1997 by China, Japan, and South Korea will be nearly offset by reduced imports by Bangladesh, the Philippines, and North Korea. Indonesia is forecast to be the largest importer, taking 1.5 million tons, followed by Brazil and China with 1.25 million each. Iran and the Philippines are each projected to import 1 million tons. Both Japan and South Korea will import greater quantities of rice in 1997 under the minimum access agreement of the GATT, boosting import demand for high-quality medium grain rice. Flooding in China is expected to disrupt distribution and raise demand for government emergency relief rice. Because government rice stocks have been drawn down in recent years, USDA's projection of China's 1997 imports was increased to 1.25 million tons, up from an estimated 750,000 tons in 1996 but below the 2 million tons China imported in 1995. In June, the government of Vietnam reduced its rice export tax to 1 percent, leading to larger exports in June and July than in earlier months. With more than 1.6 million tons exported by Vietnam through July, and July's pace at 500,000 tons, Vietnam could easily exceed its 2-million-ton export quota well before the end of 1996. Consequently, exporters requested that the quota be increased to 2.8 million tons. USDA raised Vietnam's projected exports for both 1996 and 1997 to 2.8 million tons. Thailand, the world's largest rice exporter, is forecast to export 5.5 million metric tons in 1997, about the same as this year but below its 1989 record of 6 million. India is projected to rank number 2, shipping 3 million tons--the same as in 1996. The U.S. is forecast to rank number 4, with exports of 2.3 million tons, down from 2.7 million in 1996. U.S. SITUATION AND OUTLOOK IN 1996/97 In August, USDA forecast the 1996 rice crop at 168.8 million cwt, down nearly 3 percent from 1995. The decline is due solely to an almost 7 percent drop in planted area, to 2.91 million acres. Average yield is projected to be 5,863 pounds per harvested acre, up over 4 percent from last year, but down slightly from July's forecast. This is the first survey-based yield projection for the 1996 crop. The increase from last year is due to generally favorable weather thus far in the growing season and an acreage shift to California medium grain which typically has 30- to 40-percent higher yields than southern long grain. Carryin stocks are also lower and total supplies of 203.4 million cwt are projected to be 4 percent below 1995/96. Disappearance is also projected down nearly 4 percent to 178 million cwt. Continued growth in domestic food uses will only partly offset a 11-million-cwt drop in exports. Ending stocks are projected down almost 5 percent to 25.3 million cwt, with the ending stocks- to-use ratio declining slightly to 14.2 from 14.3 in 1995/96. In June, producers indicated that they planted 2.91 million acres, down nearly 7 percent from last year. All rice-producing States reported smaller planted acreage except California, which produces mostly medium grain rice. All of the year-to-year decrease in rice area is in long grain, which is estimated down 281,000 acres. Arkansas accounts for most of the decrease in long grain area, losing 160,000 acres, followed by Mississippi with a 70,000- acre drop. Medium grain area is up 67,000 acres nationwide, with Arkansas posting a 60,000 acre increase and California reporting 52,000 more rice acres. Louisiana was the only State to report a drop in medium grain acres, down 45,000 from 1995. Louisiana experienced disease problems last year with medium grain rice and many producers switched to long grain this year. The 1996 FAIR Act has decoupled planting decisions from government payments, allowing market signals to largely determine plantings. Two major changes were noted. First, historically high prices at planting for feed grains and soybeans account for much of the year-to-year drop in rice area. And second, a price premium for high quality medium grain rice (California #1, 4-percent brokens) over long grain accounts for most of the shift to medium grain. The 1996 rice crop appears to be progressing well. As of August 11, 12 percent of the rice crop had been harvested--all in the South--3 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. By that date, 80 percent of the rice had headed, well ahead of the 5-year average of 66 percent. On August 11, 78 percent of the crop was rated in good or excellent condition, with just 3 percent rated poor--all in the South. Ninety percent of California's crop was rated in good or excellent condition. A breakdown of U.S. rice acreage by type indicates a decrease in long grain production of 9 percent to 110.9 million cwt. Medium and short grain production is projected to be 57.9 million cwt, up 11 percent from 1995 but 2.6 million cwt below last month's projection. Long grain supplies are projected to tighten because of a smaller crop, reduced carryin, and steady growth in domestic demand. A larger crop will limit the drop in medium and short grain supplies to 274,000 cwt despite the reduced carryin. Strong demand for long grain rice is projected to lower 1996/97 long grain ending stocks more than 7 percent to 14.6 million cwt, pulling the long grain stocks-to-use ratio down to 12.2 percent. The short and medium grain scenario is also tight, with ending stocks projected to drop almost 2 percent to 10 million cwt, and the ending stocks-to-use ratio to drop to 16.9 percent from 17.2 percent in 1995/96. U.S. exports are projected to be 71 million cwt, down 13 percent from 1995/96, with long grain accounting for all of the drop. Reduced U.S. long grain supplies and continued strong domestic growth in food use will support farm prices and help widen the premium between U.S. high-quality long grain prices and those of Asian exporters. However, long grain rough rice exports to Latin America are likely to remain strong. No decrease in high quality medium grain exports is projected as Japan increases imports in the second half of 1996 as part of its GATT minimum access commitments, and as traditional U.S. medium grain importers, such as Turkey, continue importing U.S. rice. U.S. SUPPLY AND DEMAND SITUATION FOR 1995/96 U.S. 1995 rice production is estimated to have been 173.9 million cwt, down 12 percent from 1994's record 197.8 million cwt. Total 1995/96 domestic use was an estimated 104.2 million cwt, second only to 1996/97, on the strength of 4 percent growth in food use to a record 77 million cwt. U.S. rice exports and sales commitments combined were 22 percent behind 1994/95 by the end of the 1995/96 marketing year, according to the U.S. Export Sales report of August 8, 1996. The pace supports USDA's 1995/96 U.S. export forecast of 82 million cwt. Lower production and relatively strong domestic use and exports are estimated to have reduced 1995/96 ending stocks to 26.6 million cwt (rough), down more than 15 percent from a year earlier. The ending stocks would equal 14.3 percent of total use, a drop of 1.5 percentage points from 1994/95. INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION AND TRADE IN 1995/96 World rice production and consumption are estimated to have been records in 1995/96, with use exceeding output by almost 1 million tons, pulling ending stocks down 910,000 tons. The stocks-to-use ratio is estimated to have been 13 percent, down from 13.5 percent in 1994/95. Exports in 1996 are projected down 10 percent to 18.8 million tons, reflecting a large drop in imports by Bangladesh, China, and Indonesia as 1995/96 production in these countries returns to normal. However, trade would still be second only to 1995's record. Adding strength in 1996 are expectations of substantially greater imports by Brazil, the Philippines, and Iraq. Trade will also be facilitated by large exportable supplies in Thailand, India, and Vietnam that will push prices down for low- and medium-quality imports. Global imports of medium-grain rice should remain strong in 1996 as Japan and South Korea meet gradually rising Uruguay Round rice import obligations. International demand for high-quality long grain will also remain strong in 1996 as Brazil, Iran, and the Philippines remain major importers and China, already a major importer, increases purchases. U.S. 1996 exports are projected to remains at 2.7 million tons, 12 percent below 1995. ****************************************************************************** * INFORMATION CONTACTS AT THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE: * * Nathan Childs, domestic (202) 501-8513 * * Carol Whitton, international (202) 219-0825 * * Next month's Rice Outlook will be available on September 12, 1996. * ****************************************************************************** Note: Detailed 1996/97 foreign supply and use forecasts is published on August 13 in the Foreign Agricultural Service's Grain: World Markets and Trade. Tables: Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1990/91 to present Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1993/94 to present Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1993/94 to present Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1990/91 to present Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1990/91 to 1996/97. Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1990/91 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1995/96 1996/97 Item | 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 | 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== | | TOTAL RICE | Percent | | | ARP | 20 5 0 5 0 | 5 N/A | | Area | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.897 2.884 3.176 2.920 3.353 | 3.121 2.910 Harvested | 2.823 2.781 3.132 2.833 3.316 | 3.093 2.879 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 5,529 5,731 5,736 5,510 5,964 | 5,621 5,863 | | | Million hundredweight | | | Beginning | | stocks | 26.3 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 | 31.4 26.6 Production | 156.1 159.4 179.7 156.1 197.8 | 173.9 168.8 Imports | 4.8 5.3 6.1 6.9 7.0 | 7.5 8.0 Total supply | 187.2 189.2 213.2 202.5 230.6 | 212.8 203.6 | | Food | 63.7 67.1 69.0 71.2 74.0 | 77.0 80.0 Seed | 3.6 3.9 3.6 4.2 4.1 | 4.1 4.0 Brewer's use | 15.3 15.5 15.1 15.1 15.2 | 15.1 15.1 Residual 4/ | 9.0 8.9 9.0 11.0 5.0 | 8.0 8.0 Domestic use | 91.6 95.4 96.7 101.5 98.3 | 104.2 107.1 | | Exports | 71.0 66.4 77.0 75.2 100.9 | 82.0 71.0 Rough | 4.8 6.3 5.1 3.6 18.5 | 11.2 12.0 Milled 5/ | 66.2 60.1 71.9 71.5 82.4 | 70.8 59.0 Total use | 162.6 161.8 173.7 176.7 199.2 | 186.2 178.1 | | Ending stocks | 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.4 | 26.6 25.3 CCC inventory| 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 | 0.0 0.0 Free stocks | 24.5 27.0 39.3 25.8 31.3 | 26.6 25.3 | | | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 15.1 16.9 22.7 14.6 15.8 | 14.3 14.2 | | | $/cwt | 8.75 Average farm | | to price 6/ | 6.68 7.58 5.89 7.98 6.78 | 9.10 9.75 | | | Percent | Average | | milling rate | 72.0 70.5 70.0 74.0 73.0 | 72.0 72.0 ============================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Estimate. 3/ Projection. 4/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Marketing year weighted average of prices received. Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1993/94 to present ============================================================================= | 1995/96 1994/95 1993/94 | -------------------- ------------------- ------------------- Month | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================= | August | 7.64 9,935 6.87 11,534 5.19 12,411 September | 7.95 12,010 6.89 12,610 5.21 12,950 October | 8.77 12,493 6.47 13,381 6.10 14,804 November | 9.12 12,951 6.53 15,470 8.06 15,228 December | 9.36 12,503 6.56 17,479 8.91 12,722 January | 9.33 13,130 6.78 17,781 8.98 14,106 February | 9.10 11,898 6.71 16,050 10.10 9,750 March | 9.31 14,690 6.64 17,565 10.20 11,594 April | 9.34 13,562 6.70 12,425 9.93 8,113 May | 9.69 11,538 6.75 16,848 10.00 7,854 June | 9.74 9,500 7.03 13,793 8.88 8,708 July | 9.68 1/ 12,201 7.17 9,847 7.80 7,986 | Average 2/ | 9.10 12,201 6.78 14,565 7.98 11,352 | Total 3/ | 146,411 174,783 136,226 ============================================================================= 1/ Preliminary midmonth price estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1995/96 is preliminary estimate. 3/ Total volume marketed. Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1993/94 to present 1/ ============================================================================ | 1995/96 1994/95 1993/94 Month 2/| -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ============================================================================ | | $/cwt | August | 7.93 6.22 6.06 5.33 5.64 5.33 4.11 3.76 3.57 September | 8.02 6.30 6.13 5.62 5.67 5.36 4.20 3.84 3.65 October | 8.81 6.67 6.51 5.74 5.61 5.32 4.88 4.48 4.26 November | 8.47 6.82 6.63 5.85 5.59 5.31 6.56 6.15 5.86 December | 8.17 7.16 6.95 5.82 5.59 5.31 7.26 6.85 6.53 January | 8.11 7.19 7.13 6.21 5.62 5.58 7.35 7.00 6.73 February | 7.90 7.49 7.67 6.41 5.70 5.66 7.49 7.31 7.20 March | 7.97 7.38 7.55 6.41 5.74 5.70 7.29 7.30 7.18 April | 7.68 7.25 7.42 6.41 5.74 5.70 6.48 7.25 7.11 May | 7.38 7.17 7.35 6.56 5.87 5.82 5.91 7.19 7.03 June | 7.64 7.42 7.60 7.38 6.03 6.00 5.32 7.05 6.87 July | 7.79 7.82 8.01 7.63 6.10 6.06 5.22 6.27 6.12 | Average 2/| 7.99 7.07 7.08 6.28 5.74 5.59 6.00 6.20 6.01 ============================================================================ 1/ Loan rate basis (rough); repayment rates for 1989-94 crops are the higher of the world price or 70 percent of the loan rate for the specified class of rice. 2/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1990/91 to present 1/ ============================================================================== |1995/96 |1994/95 | Country |--------|--------1994/95 |1993/94 1992/93 1991/92 1990/91 or | as of | as of | region | 8/01/96|08/01/95 Final | Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== 1,000 metric tons European Union | 452 | 503 474 | 362 362 263 383 Other Western Europe| 19 | 42 22 | 18 47 44 46 Turkey | 187 | 279 259 | 67 191 154 153 Eastern Europe | 34 | 63 58 | 10 46 39 30 Former Soviet Union | 37 | 19 18 | 4 15 42 0 | | | Japan | 192 | 2 2 | 568 0 0 0 | | | OTHER ASIA AND | | | THE MIDDLE EAST | 365 | 612 527 | 349 438 228 304 Iran | 72 | 262 191 | 121 130 7 0 Iraq | 0 | 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 Saudi Arabia | 144 | 165 153 | 157 205 146 180 | | | AFRICA | 346 | 307 257 | 258 315 244 316 Cote d'Ivoire | 82 | 77 57 | 67 92 56 78 Senegal | 5 | 43 28 | 75 87 37 62 Republic of | | | South Africa | 164 | 115 113 | 90 111 103 87 | | | WESTERN HEMISPHERE | 1,044 | 1,617 1,585 | 513 663 771 779 Canada | 116 | 139 127 | 91 98 88 109 Mexico | 320 | 332 327 | 177 249 118 87 Haiti | 121 | 153 148 | 43 117 97 34 Jamaica | 80 | 80 74 | 63 30 56 74 Brazil | 1 | 368 368 | 12 0 187 295 | | | TOTAL | 2,678 | 3,426 3,201 | 2,149 2,075 1,783 2,009 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census Bureau 2/ |2,680 4/| 3,324 | 2,523 2,443 2,113 2,300 Difference 3/ | 294 | 123 | 373 367 329 291 ============================================================================== Note: the "U.S. Export Sales Report" reports sales and shipments in product weight. The milled equivalent total may vary significantly from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales Report," FAS, USDA. Columns labeled "as of" represent combined exports plus sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census Bureau rice export total (reported on a milled equivalent basis) is the official export total. 3/ The "U.S. Export Sales Report" does not include U.S. Government exports under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 4/ USDA August 12 forecast, milled equivalent. 5/ The average difference between the Census and the "Export Sales Report" for 1990/91-1994/95. Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present ============================================================================== | U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Month | ------------------------- ------------------------------------- or | Long Medium marketing | grain 3/ grain 4/ Parboiled 100% 5% par- 15% 35% A.1 6/ year 1/ | Houston Calif. Houston grade B boiled broken broken special ============================================================================== | | $/metric ton 7/ | 1986/87 | 240 282 311 190 171 173 154 122 1987/88 | 421 366 486 273 261 256 236 204 1988/89 | 324 361 386 292 284 275 256 232 1989/90 | 342 352 400 292 259 262 214 172 1990/91 | 331 347 400 296 277 261 213 169 1991/92 | 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 | 322 383 349 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 | 439 451 480 294 244 243 208 160 | Aug '94 | 313 428 353 259 271 237 222 200 Sep '94 | 309 397 344 267 265 246 233 210 Oct '94 | 304 397 331 272 262 249 238 216 Nov '94 | 298 397 331 272 263 249 236 215 Dec '94 | 298 397 331 270 259 250 237 222 Jan '95 | 298 366 331 282 264 265 252 232 Feb '95 | 298 358 342 289 266 270 255 226 Mar '95 | 298 353 342 292 269 272 253 222 Apr '95 | 298 353 342 290 269 271 254 226 May '95 | 311 353 346 299 274 279 262 239 Jun '95 | 358 353 380 333 305 314 297 276 Jul '95 | 392 353 406 353 341 335 321 297 1994/95 | 314 375 348 290 276 270 255 232 | Aug '95 | 386 364 419 346 343 327 310 288 Sep '95 | 386 380 424 368 354 346 322 285 Oct '95 | 430 432 485 393 373 372 340 293 Nov '95 | 441 441 463 354 342 334 315 296 Dec '95 | 419 496 463 347 337 326 307 278 Jan '96 | 410 507 454 372 355 350 321 271 Feb '96 | 402 474 449 377 357 348 307 256 Mar '96 | 397 463 441 373 350 344 301 260 Apr '96 | 406 459 454 342 316 310 272 245 May '96 | 430 441 471 347 318 312 272 244 Jun '96 | 430 441 474 360 339 322 275 240 Jul '96 | 430 441 474 370 347 335 281 229 1995/96 8/| 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 | Aug '95 9/| 441 441 486 349 334 320 268 219 ============================================================================== NA = Not available. 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. embassy, Bangkok. 6/ 100 percent broken. 7/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 8/ Preliminary. 9/ As of August 7 for Thai prices, August 12 for U.S. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1990/91 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1995/96 1996/97 Item | 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 | 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.129 2.113 2.408 2.102 2.410 | 2.335 Harvested | 2.065 2.023 2.372 2.028 2.379 | 2.312 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 5,221 5,395 5,397 5,082 5,609 | 5,265 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 13.2 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 | 14.5 15.7 Production | 107.8 109.1 128.0 103.1 133.4 | 121.7 110.9 Imports | 4.3 4.7 5.4 6.2 6.0 | 6.5 7.0 Total supply| 125.3 125.4 146.4 130.9 154.5 | 142.7 133.6 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 57.8 61.4 60.8 67.2 59.0 | 65.0 68.0 Exports | 56.0 51.0 64.0 48.6 81.0 | 62.0 51.0 Total use | 113.8 112.4 124.8 115.8 140.0 | 127.0 119.0 | | Ending stocks| 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.5 | 15.7 14.6 | | Stocks-to- | Percent | use ratio | 10.1 11.6 17.3 13.0 10.3 | 12.4 12.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN | | Million acres | | | Planted | 0.768 0.771 0.768 0.818 0.943 | 0.786 Harvested | 0.758 0.758 0.760 0.805 0.937 | 0.781 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 6,370 6,627 6,795 6,590 6,866 | 6,676 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 11.6 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 | 15.8 10.2 Production | 48.3 50.2 51.6 53.0 64.3 | 52.1 57.9 Imports | 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 | 1.0 1.0 Total supply| 60.5 62.4 64.8 70.9 74.9 | 69.4 69.1 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 33.8 34.1 35.9 34.3 39.2 | 39.2 39.1 Exports | 15.0 15.4 13.0 26.6 19.9 | 20.0 20.0 Total use | 48.8 49.5 48.9 60.9 59.1 | 59.2 59.1 | | Ending stocks| 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 | 10.2 10.0 | | Stocks-to- | Percent | use ratio | 24.0 26.1 32.4 16.4 26.8 | 17.2 16.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Ending stocks| | difference 1/| 1.4 1.4 2.0 0.7 1.1 | 0.7 0.7 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the stock total for all types of rice in Table 1. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. END_OF_FILE