RICE OUTLOOK September 12, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. RCS-0996. Note: Tables in this report will not be properly formatted unless printed or displayed with both a fixed-pitch font, such as Courier, and an 80-character line width. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o August 1 stocks were estimated at 25 million cwt (rough equivalent basis) according to USDA's August 30 Rice Stocks report. Compared to a year earlier, rice stocks are down 20 percent and are the lowest since 1991. Most of the drop is for long grain, which is down 30 percent; medium grain stocks are down about 9 percent. o The 1996 U.S. rice crop is pegged at 171.5 million cwt, up 1.9 percent from last month's forecast due to an upward revision in projected yield, but down 1.4 percent from last year due to a 7 percent drop in area. o Average yield is projected at 5,957 pounds, 1.6 percent above last month's forecast and up over 6 percent from 1995. If realized, this would be the second highest yield ever, barely behind 1994's 5,964 pounds. o Total U.S. rice planted area is projected at 2.91 million acres, unchanged from last month's forecast but almost 7 percent below 1995. All the area drop is in long grain, projected down 12 percent; medium grain is projected up almost 8.7 percent. o The U.S. season average farm price (SAFP) for 1996/97 is projected to be $8.75 to $9.75 per cwt, unchanged from August's projection. o The SAFP for 1995/96 was 9.09 per cwt, 1 cent below last month's estimate. NEAR-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: U.S. FARM PRICES REMAIN FIRM The 1996/97 (August/July) season average farm price (SAFP) is projected to be $8.75 to $9.75 per cwt. The SAFP is likely to remain firm as expectations of relatively strong export demand for high-quality long and medium grain rice, continued rising domestic food use, a smaller U.S. crop, and high prices for other grains combine to support U.S. rice prices. However, with exports accounting for around 40 percent of total disappearance, activities in the global rice market will continue to affect U.S. farm prices. The 1995/96 season average farm price was $9.09 per cwt, up substantially from $6.78 a year earlier and the first time the SAFP has exceeded $9 per cwt since 1981/82. Strong world import demand in the first half of the marketing year, tight international supplies of high-quality long grain rice through most of the second half of the marketing year, and a smaller 1995 U.S. rice crop supported U.S. long-grain export and farm prices in 1995/96. U.S. farm level rice prices strengthened in May and have remained strong through the first half of August. Last month, USDA estimated August's mid- month farm price at $9.68 per cwt and kept the July estimate to $9.68. Average monthly farm prices have exceeded $9 per cwt since last November and have topped $9.50 since May. INTERNATIONAL PRICES FOR HIGH QUALITY RICE STABILIZE International rice prices, which had declined sharply in late-July and most of August due to lack of any sizable new sales, have stabilized around $345 per metric ton since late August due to increased buying activity. Offer quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. out of Bangkok) had fallen from $376 a metric ton in mid-July to $342 by August 21. Contributing to the price drop was a higher quality Thailand second crop (harvested in May and June) than previously expected, which increased exportable supplies of high-quality rice by midsummer. Prices for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice--No. 2, 4-percent broken offer quotes out of Houston--remained steady at $430 per ton from early May through early August, up from $406 in April and $397 in March, and were the highest monthly prices since November 1995. In mid-August these prices jumped to $452 per ton and have remained there due to scarce supplies of high-quality U.S. rice available for either the domestic or export market. The dropping Thai price in the face of steady-to-rising U.S. rice prices widened the U.S. premium over Thai rice to $100 per ton in August and to $107 by early September, the highest in over 2 years. The up-tick in Thai prices that occurred early in the summer reduced the premium to $70 per ton in June and to $60 in July, down from $83 in May. U.S. rice is thought to be competitive in world markets at a premium of $30-$50 over Thai rice. Prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4 percent brokens, f.o.b.) have remained at $441 per ton since late April, down from over $500 in January and $463 in mid-April. Prices for California medium grain had maintained a premium of $11 per ton over U.S. long grain (No. 2, 4- percent broken, f.o.b. Gulf port) from early May through early August, the smallest premium since last November. The premium was $97 in January, the highest in 1995/96. The mid-August jump in Texas long grain prices reversed the premium, giving U.S. long grain an $11-a-ton premium over California medium grain. The current lack of a price premium for medium grain rice is largely due to Japan's recent absence from the market for japonica rice, following large purchases earlier this year, and partly to Korea's purchase of its GATT-required rice from China in June. South Korea had been expected to turn to the U.S. to meet its GATT commitments and/or replenish its stocks. Japan is expected to make additional rice purchases before the end of its 1996/97 fiscal year (April-March) as part of its GATT commitments. The U.S. is a likely supplier of much of this trade and California medium grain prices are likely to reflect the increased demand. Prices for lower quality rice have generally been falling since November. Quotes for A.1 Special (100 percent broken, f.o.b. Bangkok) averaged $213 per ton in August, down from $240 in June and $260 in March. Prices for low quality rice began to rise slightly in late August and early September. Ample supplies and little interest from importers account for the continued low prices. The late July and August drop in the high-quality international prices reduced the high-quality price premium--measured by the difference between Bangkok's f.o.b. price quotes for 100-percent grade B and for A.1 Special--to $133 in August--down from $141 in July. The premium further dropped to $130 in early September as low-quality rice prices posted a slight increase. The high-quality price premium is likely to widen in a few months as both exports and prices for high quality rice pick up and demand for low quality rice weakens. Little increase in exportable supplies of high-quality rice is expected until December, when Thailand's main crop becomes available for sale. GLOBAL TRADE TO REMAIN STRONG IN 1996/97 World production and consumption are each projected to reach records in 1996/97, with both up over 1 percent from 1995/96. Production, forecast to reach 375.7 million tons (milled basis), will be short of consumption, forecast at 376.9 million (milled basis), pulling projected ending stocks down almost 3 percent to 46.8 million tons, the sixth consecutive decline in ending stocks. The stocks-to-use ratio, projected at 12.4 percent, would be below last year's 12.9 percent. World 1996/97 production is projected to be down just 10,000 tons from last month's forecast. The downward revision is due to a 100,000-ton drop in Japan's projected crop to 9.2 million tons--a result of a weather-induced drop in expected yields--and a 90,000 ton gain forecast for the U.S. crop. The Asian monsoon continues to provide good rains in most areas. Flooding was a concern in China, but estimates from a survey conducted by China's State Statistical Bureau put its early crop at 44 million tons (paddy), up 4 percent from last year. While heavy rainfall along the Yangtze Valley in central China and in the southwest damaged the early rice harvest in some areas, higher yields in other areas more than compensated. And with more late rice likely planted than previously expected and, assuming normal weather for the remainder of the season, USDA still projects a record 130 million ton (milled basis) crop for China. Forecasts for calendar 1996 trade were slightly raised, to 18.9 million tons from 18.8 million last month. The month-to-month revision in exports was due to an increase in projected exports from India of 250,000 tons to 3.25 million and a 100,000-ton drop in Burma's projected exports to 400,000 tons due to rising domestic prices and low stocks. On the import side, the month-to- month revision resulted from a 100,000 ton increase in Peru's projected imports due to poor crop prospects, a 250,000 drop in Brazil's projected imports to 1 million tons--a result of a reduction in government-held stocks-- and a halving of Iraq's imports due to continued delay in approval of oil for food sales in the face of the recent military and political situation. For 1997, continued strong domestic demand in Brazil, China, Indonesia, Iran, and the Philippines is projected to keep imports robust, even with greater production in some of these countries. Although projected trade for 1997 was dropped 300,00 tons from last month's forecast to 18.3 million tons, it would still be the third highest ever, after 1995 and 1996. A 300,000-ton reduction in projected exports for Burma is behind the revision. Greater imports in 1997 by Brazil, Indonesia, China, Japan, and South Korea will be nearly offset by reduced imports by Bangladesh, the Philippines, and North Korea. Indonesia is forecast to be the largest importer, taking 1.5 million tons (up from 1.25 million), followed by Brazil and China with 1.25 million tons each, both up from this year. The current drought in Brazil is behind a 250,000 increase in expected imports for that country. Both Japan and South Korea will import greater quantities of rice in 1997 under the minimum access agreement of the GATT, boosting import demand for high-quality medium grain rice. Iran and the Philippines are each projected to import 1 million tons in 1997, down 200,000 from this year. Thailand, the world's largest rice exporter, is forecast to export 5.5 million tons in 1997, about the same as this year but below its 1989 record of 6 million. India, which has seen generally favorable monsoons since 1988, is projected to rank number 2, shipping 3 million tons--down 250,000 from 1996. Vietnam's projected exports remain at 2.8 million tons for both 1996 and 1997, unchanged from last month's forecast, making the country the third largest exporter in both years. In June, the Vietnam government dropped its rice export tax to 1 percent, leading to larger exports in June and July than in earlier months. With more than 1.6 million tons exported by Vietnam through July, and Julys pace at 500,000 tons, Vietnam would easily exceed its 2- million-ton export quota well before the end of 1996. Consequently, exporters requested that the quota be increased to 2.8 million tons. The U.S. is forecast to rank number 4, with exports of 2.3 million tons, down from 2.7 million in 1996. U.S. SITUATION AND OUTLOOK IN 1996/97 In September, USDA forecast the 1996 rice crop at 171.5 million cwt, up 1.6 percent from last month's forecast due to an upward revision in yield, but down 1.4 percent from 1995's crop. The annual decline is due solely to an almost 7 percent drop in planted area, to 2.91 million acres. Average yield is projected to be 5,957 pounds per harvested acre, 1.6 percent above last month's forecast and up nearly 6 percent from last year. If the yield is realized, it would be the second only to 1994's 5,964 pounds per harvested acre. The increase from last year is due to generally favorable weather and an acreage shift to California medium grain, which typically has 30- to 40- percent higher yields than southern long grain. August 1 stocks were estimated at 25 million cwt (rough-equivalent basis) according to USDA's August 30 Rice Stocks. Compared to a year earlier, rice stocks are down 20 percent and are the lowest since 1991. Total supplies are projected to be 204.5 million cwt, 4 percent below 1995/96, because of both a smaller crop and carryin. Disappearance is projected down 4.6 percent from 1995/96 to 179.1 million cwt. Continued growth in domestic food uses will only partly offset a 10-million-cwt drop in exports. Projected ending stocks are nearly unchanged from a 1995/96, giving a stocks-to-use ratio of 14.2, up from 13.3 a year earlier. The 1996 rice crop appears to be progressing well. As of September 8, 33 percent had been harvested--all in the South--3 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Harvest was most advanced in Texas and Louisiana, where 76 percent and 85 percent of the crops had been harvested, both ahead of their 5- year averages. In Arkansas, which accounts for 40 percent of U.S. rice output, 15 percent of the crop had been harvested. On September 8, 81 percent of the crop was rated in good or excellent condition, with just 2 percent rated poor--all in Mississippi. Ninety percent of California's crop was rated in good or excellent condition. A breakdown of U.S. rice production by type indicates a decrease in long grain production of almost 7.5 percent from 1995 to 112.6 million cwt. In contrast, medium and short grain production is projected to rise to 58.9 million cwt, up almost 13 percent from 1995. Long grain supplies are projected to drop more than 9 percent from a year earlier due to the smaller crop, a 30-percent smaller carryin, and steady growth in domestic demand. A larger crop will allow medium and short grain supplies to rise almost 7 percent despite a near 10-percent reduction in carryin from last year. Strong demand for long grain rice is projected to lower 1996/97 long grain ending stocks almost 4 percent to 9.7 million cwt, yielding a long grain stocks-to-use ratio of 8.1 percent, just above last year's 7.6. The short and medium grain scenario is less tight, with ending stocks projected to rise over 5 percent to 15 million, and the ending stocks-to-use ratio to drop slightly to 25.4 percent from 25.9 million. U.S. exports are projected to be 72 million cwt, up 1 million cwt from last month's projection and down 12 percent from 1995/96. Long grain will account for all of the year-to-year drop. Reduced U.S. long grain supplies and continued strong domestic growth in food use will support farm prices and help widen the gap between U.S. high-quality long grain prices and those of Asian exporters. However, long grain rough rice exports to Latin America are likely to increase slightly. High quality medium grain exports are projected to increase 5 percent to 20 million cwt as Japan is expected to step up imports prior to the end of its 1996/97 fiscal year as part of its GATT minimum access commitments, and as traditional U.S. medium grain importers, such as Turkey, continue importing U.S. rice. U.S. SUPPLY AND DEMAND SITUATION FOR 1995/96 U.S. 1995 rice production is estimated to have been 173.9 million cwt, down 12 percent from 1994's record 197.8 million. Total 1995/96 domestic use was an estimated 105.8 million cwt, second only to projections for 1996/97, on the strength of 4-percent growth in food use to a record 77 million cwt. U.S. rice exports and sales commitments combined were 22 percent behind 1994/95 by the end of the 1995/96 marketing year, according to the U.S. Export Sales report of August 8, 1996. The pace supports USDA's 1995/96 U.S. export forecast of 82 million cwt. Lower production and relatively strong domestic use and exports are estimated to have reduced 1995/96 ending stocks to 25 million cwt--based on survey data- -down more than 20 percent from a year earlier and 6 percent below last month's forecast. Ending stocks would equal 13.3 percent of total use, down 2.5 percentage points from 1994/95. INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION AND TRADE IN 1995/96 World rice production and consumption were probably record high in 1995/96, with use exceeding output by nearly 1.4 million tons, pulling ending stocks down 1.38 million tons. The stocks-to-use ratio is estimated to have been about 13 percent, down from almost 13.5 percent in 1994/95. Exports in 1996 are projected down almost 10 percent to 18.9 million tons from 1995's record 20.97 million, reflecting a large drop in imports by Bangladesh, China, and Indonesia as 1995/96 production in these countries returns to normal. However, trade would still be second only to 1995's record. Adding strength in 1996 are expectations of substantially greater imports by Brazil, the Philippines, and Iraq. Trade will also be facilitated by large exportable supplies in Thailand, India, and Vietnam that will push prices down for low- and medium-quality imports. Global imports of medium-grain rice should remain strong in 1996 as Japan and South Korea meet gradually rising Uruguay Round rice import obligations. International demand for high-quality long grain will also remain strong in 1996 as Brazil, Iran, and the Philippines remain major importers and China, already a major importer, increases purchases. U.S. 1996 exports are projected to remain at 2.7 million tons, 12 percent below 1995. ****************************************************************************** * INFORMATION CONTACTS AT THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE: * * Nathan Childs (202) 501-8513 * * * * Next month's Rice Outlook will be available on October 15, 1996. * ****************************************************************************** Note: Detailed 1996/97 foreign supply and use forecasts are published on September 13 in the Foreign Agricultural Service's Grain: World Markets and Trade. Tables: Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1990/91 to present Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1993/94 to present Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1994/95 to present Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1991/92 to present Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1990/91 to 1996/97. Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1990/91 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1995/96 1996/97 Item | 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 | 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== | | TOTAL RICE | Percent | | | ARP | 20 5 0 5 0 | 5 N/A | | Area | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.897 2.884 3.176 2.920 3.353 | 3.121 2.910 Harvested | 2.823 2.781 3.132 2.833 3.316 | 3.093 2.879 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 5,529 5,731 5,736 5,510 5,964 | 5,621 5,957 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 26.3 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 | 31.4 25.0 Production | 156.1 159.4 179.7 156.1 197.8 | 173.9 171.5 Imports | 4.8 5.3 6.1 6.9 7.0 | 7.5 8.0 Total supply | 187.2 189.2 213.2 202.5 230.6 | 212.8 204.5 | | Food | 63.7 67.1 69.0 71.2 74.0 | 77.0 80.0 Seed | 3.6 3.9 3.6 4.2 4.1 | 4.1 4.0 Brewer's use | 15.3 15.5 15.1 15.1 15.2 | 15.1 15.1 Residual 4/ | 9.0 8.9 9.0 11.0 5.0 | 9.6 8.0 Domestic use | 91.6 95.4 96.7 101.5 98.3 | 105.8 107.1 | | Exports | 71.0 66.4 77.0 75.2 100.9 | 82.0 72.0 Rough | 4.8 6.3 5.1 3.6 18.5 | 11.2 12.0 Milled 5/ | 66.2 60.1 71.9 71.5 82.4 | 70.8 60.0 Total use | 162.6 161.8 173.7 176.7 199.2 | 187.8 179.1 | | Ending | | stocks | 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.4 | 25.0 25.4 CCC stocks | 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 | 0.0 0.0 Free stocks | 24.5 27.0 39.3 25.8 31.3 | 25.0 25.4 | | | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 15.1 16.9 22.7 14.6 15.8 | 13.3 14.2 | | | $/cwt | 8.75 Average farm | | to price 6/ | 6.68 7.58 5.89 7.98 6.78 | 9.09 9.75 | | | Percent | Average | | milling rate | 72.0 70.5 70.0 74.0 73.0 | 72.0 72.0 ============================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Marketing year weighted average prices received. Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1994/95 to present ============================================================================= | 1995/96 1994/95 1993/94 | -------------------- ------------------- ------------------- Month | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================= | August | 7.64 9,935 6.87 11,534 5.19 12,411 September | 7.95 12,010 6.89 12,610 5.21 12,950 October | 8.77 12,493 6.47 13,381 6.10 14,804 November | 9.12 12,951 6.53 15,470 8.06 15,228 December | 9.36 12,503 6.56 17,479 8.91 12,722 January | 9.33 13,130 6.78 17,781 8.98 14,106 February | 9.10 11,898 6.71 16,050 10.10 9,750 March | 9.31 14,690 6.64 17,565 10.20 11,594 April | 9.34 13,562 6.70 12,425 9.93 8,113 May | 9.69 11,538 6.75 16,848 10.00 7,854 June | 9.74 9,500 7.03 13,793 8.88 8,708 July | 9.68 10,142 7.17 9,847 7.80 7,986 | Average 1/ | 9.09 12,029 6.78 14,565 7.98 11,352 | Total 2/ | 144,352 174,783 136,226 ============================================================================= 1/ Price is marketing year weighted average. 2/ Total volume marketed. Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1994/95 to present 1/ ============================================================================ | 1996/97 1995/96 1994/95 Month | -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ============================================================================ | | $/cwt | August | 7.69 7.84 7.96 7.93 6.22 6.06 5.33 5.64 5.33 September | 7.56 7.81 7.93 2/ 8.02 6.30 6.13 5.62 5.67 5.36 October | 8.81 6.67 6.51 5.74 5.61 5.32 November | 8.47 6.82 6.63 5.85 5.59 5.31 December | 8.17 7.16 6.95 5.82 5.59 5.31 January | 8.11 7.19 7.13 6.21 5.62 5.58 February | 7.90 7.49 7.67 6.41 5.70 5.66 March | 7.97 7.38 7.55 6.41 5.74 5.70 April | 7.68 7.25 7.42 6.41 5.74 5.70 May | 7.38 7.17 7.35 6.56 5.87 5.82 June | 7.64 7.42 7.60 7.38 6.03 6.00 July | 7.79 7.82 8.01 7.63 6.10 6.06 | Average 3/| 7.63 7.83 7.94 2/ 7.99 7.07 7.08 6.28 5.74 5.59 ============================================================================ 1/ Loan rate basis (rough); repayment rates for 1989-94 crops are the higher of the world price or 70 percent of the loan rate for the specified class of rice. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1991/92 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | 1996/97| 1995/96 | Country |--------|--------1995/96| 1994/95 1993/94 1992/93 1991/92 or | as of | as of as of | region | 8/29/96| 8/29/95 8/1/96| Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== 1,000 metric tons European Union | 113 | 93 452 | 503 362 362 263 Other Western Europe| 7 | 7 19 | 42 18 47 44 Turkey | 0 | 31 187 | 279 67 191 154 Eastern Europe | 0 | 27 34 | 63 10 46 39 Former Soviet Union | 1 | 9 37 | 19 4 15 42 | | | Japan | 0 | 2 192 | 2 568 0 0 | | | OTHER ASIA AND | | | THE MIDDLE EAST | 108 | 183 365 | 612 349 438 228 Iran | 0 | 96 72 | 262 121 130 7 Iraq | 0 | 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 Saudi Arabia | 57 | 14 144 | 165 157 205 146 | | | AFRICA | 28 | 74 346 | 307 258 315 244 Cote d'Ivoire | 0 | 21 82 | 77 67 92 56 Senegal | 0 | 15 5 | 43 75 87 37 Republic of | | | South Africa | 17 | 14 164 | 115 90 111 103 | | | WESTERN HEMISPHERE | 132 | 116 1,044 | 1,617 513 663 771 Canada | 33 | 39 116 | 139 91 98 88 Mexico | 19 | 11 320 | 332 177 249 118 Haiti | 0 | 15 121 | 153 43 117 97 Jamaica | 2 | 21 80 | 80 63 30 56 Brazil | 0 | 0 1 | 368 12 0 187 | | | TOTAL | 390 | 543 2,678 | 3,426 2,149 2,075 1,783 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | | Census Bureau 2/ |2,320 3/| 2,680 | 3,601 2,625 2,555 2,241 Difference 4/ | 318 | 2 | 175 476 480 458 ============================================================================== Note: the "U.S. Export Sales Report" reports sales and shipments in product weight. The milled equivalent total may vary significantly from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales Report," FAS, USDA. Columns labeled "as of" represent combined exports plus sales commitments. The "U.S. Export Sales Report" does not include U.S. Government exports under under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 2/ The U.S. Census Bureau rice export total (reported on a milled equivalent basis) is the official export total. 3/ USDA forecast, milled equivalent. 4/ The average difference between the Census and the "Export Sales Report" for 1991/92-1995/96. Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present ============================================================================== | U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Month | ------------------------- ------------------------------------- or | Long Medium marketing | grain 3/ grain 4/ Parboiled 100% 5% par- 15% 35% A.1 6/ year 1/ | Houston Calif. Houston grade B boiled broken broken special ============================================================================== | | $/metric ton 7/ | 1986/87 | 240 282 311 190 171 173 154 122 1987/88 | 421 366 486 273 261 256 236 204 1988/89 | 324 361 386 292 284 275 256 232 1989/90 | 342 352 400 292 259 262 214 172 1990/91 | 331 347 400 296 277 261 213 169 1991/92 | 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 | 322 383 349 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 | 439 451 480 294 244 243 208 160 | Aug '94 | 313 428 353 259 271 237 222 200 Sep '94 | 309 397 344 267 265 246 233 210 Oct '94 | 304 397 331 272 262 249 238 216 Nov '94 | 298 397 331 272 263 249 236 215 Dec '94 | 298 397 331 270 259 250 237 222 Jan '95 | 298 366 331 282 264 265 252 232 Feb '95 | 298 358 342 289 266 270 255 226 Mar '95 | 298 353 342 292 269 272 253 222 Apr '95 | 298 353 342 290 269 271 254 226 May '95 | 311 353 346 299 274 279 262 239 Jun '95 | 358 353 380 333 305 314 297 276 Jul '95 | 392 353 406 353 341 335 321 297 1994/95 | 314 375 348 290 276 270 255 232 | Aug '95 | 386 364 419 346 343 327 310 288 Sep '95 | 386 380 424 368 354 346 322 285 Oct '95 | 430 432 485 393 373 372 340 293 Nov '95 | 441 441 463 354 342 334 315 296 Dec '95 | 419 496 463 347 337 326 307 278 Jan '96 | 410 507 454 372 355 350 321 271 Feb '96 | 402 474 449 377 357 348 307 256 Mar '96 | 397 463 441 373 350 344 301 260 Apr '96 | 406 459 454 342 316 310 272 245 May '96 | 430 441 471 347 318 312 272 244 Jun '96 | 430 441 474 360 339 322 275 240 Jul '96 | 430 441 474 370 347 335 281 229 1995/96 | 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 | Aug '96 | 446 441 491 346 330 314 265 213 Sep ,96 8/| 452 441 485 345 328 312 263 215 ============================================================================== NA = Not available. 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. embassy, Bangkok. 6/ 100 percent broken. 7/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 8/ preliminary. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1990/91 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1995/96 1996/97 Item | 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 | 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.129 2.113 2.408 2.102 2.410 | 2.335 Harvested | 2.065 2.023 2.372 2.028 2.379 | 2.312 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 5,221 5,395 5,397 5,082 5,609 | 5,265 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 13.2 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 | 14.5 10.1 Production | 107.8 109.1 128.0 103.1 133.4 | 121.7 112.6 Imports | 4.3 4.7 5.4 6.2 6.0 | 6.5 7.0 Total supply | 125.3 125.4 146.4 130.9 154.5 | 142.7 129.7 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 57.8 61.4 60.8 67.2 59.0 | 69.6 68.0 Exports | 56.0 51.0 64.0 48.6 81.0 | 63.0 52.0 Total use | 113.8 112.4 124.8 115.8 140.0 | 132.6 120.0 | | Ending stocks | 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.5 | 10.1 9.7 | | Stocks-to- | Percent | use ratio | 10.1 11.6 17.3 13.0 10.3 | 7.6 8.1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN | | Million acres | | | Planted | 0.768 0.771 0.768 0.818 0.943 | 0.786 Harvested | 0.758 0.758 0.760 0.805 0.937 | 0.781 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 6,370 6,627 6,795 6,590 6,866 | 6,676 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 11.6 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 | 15.8 14.3 Production | 48.3 50.2 51.6 53.0 64.3 | 52.1 58.9 Imports | 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 | 1.0 1.0 Total supply | 60.5 62.4 64.8 70.9 74.9 | 69.4 74.1 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 33.8 34.1 35.9 34.3 39.2 | 36.2 39.1 Exports | 15.0 15.4 13.0 26.6 19.9 | 19.0 20.0 Total use | 48.8 49.5 48.9 60.9 59.1 | 55.2 59.1 | | Ending stocks | 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 | 14.3 15.0 | | Stocks-to- | Percent | use ratio | 24.0 26.1 32.4 16.4 26.8 | 25.9 25.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Ending stocks | | difference 1/ | 1.4 1.4 2.0 0.7 1.1 | 0.6 0.7 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the stock total for all types of rice in Table 1. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. END-OF-FILE