RICE OUTLOOK October 15, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. RCS-1096. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o The U.S. season average farm price (SAFP) for 1996/97 is projected to be $8.50 to $9.50 per cwt, down 25 cents on both the high and low end from September's forecast. The drop is due to an increase in projected U.S. production from last month and declining international prices. o The 1996 U.S. rice crop is pegged at 176.1 million cwt, up 2.7 percent from last month's forecast--due to an upward revision in projected yield and a very slight increase in planted area--and 1.3 percent above 1995's crop. o The 1996 yield is projected to be a record 6,053 pounds per acre, up 1.6 percent from last month's projection and 1.5 percent greater than 1994's record 5,964 pounds. o International rice prices for major exporters--except the U.S.--have continued a decline that began in July. The drop is primarily due to large harvests in most Asian importing and exporting countries. o The price premium for exportable southern U.S. long grain rice over comparable quality Thai rice was $131 a ton in early October, the highest since June 1994. NEAR-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: U.S. FARM PRICES REMAIN FIRM The 1996/97 (August/July) season average farm price (SAFP) is projected to be $8.50 to $9.50 per cwt, down 25 cents on the high and low end from last month's projection, with the midpoint just below 1995/96's season average price of $9.09. The SAFP is likely to remain firm as expectations of relatively strong export demand for high-quality long and medium grain rice, steadily rising domestic food use, continued tight U.S. supplies of long grain rice, and high prices for other grains combine to support U.S. rice prices. However, with exports accounting for around 40 percent of total disappearance, activities in the global rice market will continue to affect U.S. farm prices. U.S. farm level rice prices strengthened in May and have remained strong through the first half of September. Last month, USDA estimated September's mid-month farm price at $9.90 per cwt and raised the August estimate to $9.92 from a preliminary $9.68. For the season average price to equal the midpoint of the forecast range, prices must average $8.82 per cwt for the remaining 10 months of the marketing year. Average monthly farm prices have exceeded $9 per cwt since last November and have topped $9.50 since May. INTERNATIONAL PRICES SHOW STEADY DECLINE International rice prices, which had stabilized from mid-August to mid- September after declining sharply in late July, are declining again in the face of no new sizable orders and large harvests across most of Asia. Offer quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. out of Bangkok) fell from $344 a metric ton in late August to $334 by late September and to $315 by October 9. As recently as mid-July, these prices had been $376 a ton, a result of strong import demand during the first half of 1996 and short availability of exportable supplies. But since late summer, major buyers such as Brazil and the Philippines have been absent from the market. In addition, Japan, which is harvesting a strong crop this year, will likely postpone its GATT-mandated fiscal 1996/97 (April- March) purchases until early 1997. Also, the U.N. approval for Iraq to buy food in exchange for oil has been temporarily suspended, meaning that any purchases by Iraq will not likely come until late 1996 or early 1997. Prices for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice--No. 2, 4-percent broken offer quotes out of Houston--had remained steady at $430 per ton from early May through early August--the highest monthly prices since November 1995. But in mid-August these prices jumped to $452 per ton and have remained there due to scarce supplies of high-quality U.S. rice available for either the domestic or export market. The dropping Thai price in the face of steady-to-rising U.S. rice prices widened the U.S. premium over Thai rice to $111 per ton in September and to $131 by early October, the highest since June 1994. The up-tick in Thai prices that occurred early in the summer reduced the premium to $70 per ton in June and to $60 in July, down from $83 in May. U.S. rice is thought to be competitive in world markets at a premium of $30-$40 over Thai rice. Prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, f.o.b.) dropped from $441 per ton--where they had remained from late April through early October--to $430 in mid-October. These prices are down from $463 in mid-April and over $500 in January. Prices for California medium grain had maintained a premium of $11 per ton over U.S. long grain (No. 2, 4- percent broken, f.o.b. Gulf port) from early May through early August, the smallest premium since last November. The premium was $97 in January, the highest in 1995/96. The mid-August jump in Texas long grain prices reversed the premium, giving U.S. long grain a premium over California medium grain of $11 a ton, which by mid-October rose to $22 a ton. The current lack of a price premium for medium grain rice is primarily due to Japan's recent absence from the market for japonica rice, following large purchases earlier this year, as well as Korea's purchase of its GATT-required rice from China in June. South Korea had been expected to turn to the U.S. to meet its GATT commitments and/or replenish its stocks. Japan is expected to make additional rice purchases before the end of its 1996/97 fiscal year (April-March) as part of its GATT commitments. The U.S. is a likely supplier of much of this trade and California medium grain prices will eventually reflect the increased demand. Prices for lower quality rice have generally been falling for almost a year. Quotes for A.1 Special (100 percent broken, f.o.b. Bangkok) averaged $209 per ton in early October, down from $215 per ton in August and September. Prices had been $240 in June and were $260 in March. Ample supplies and little interest from importers account for the continued low prices. The late July and August drop in the high-quality international prices reduced the high-quality price premium--measured by the difference between Bangkok's f.o.b. price quotes for 100-percent grade B and for A.1 Special--to $133 in August--down from $141 in July. The premium further dropped to $126 in September and to $112 by mid-October as high-quality rice prices were dropping faster than low-quality prices. The high-quality price premium could decline further when Thailand's main crop, harvested in November, becomes available for sale. GLOBAL TRADE TO REMAIN STRONG IN 1996 and 1997 World production and consumption are projected to reach records in 1996/97, with both up over 1 percent from 1995/96. Production, forecast to reach nearly 376.1 million tons (milled basis), will be short of consumption, forecast at 377.4 million (milled basis), pulling projected ending stocks down almost 3 percent to 47.5 million tons, the sixth consecutive decline. The stocks-to-use ratio, projected at 12.6 percent, would be slightly below last year's 13 percent and the smallest since 1974/75. This month's projected world 1996/97 production is up 470,000 tons (milled basis) from last month's forecast. The upward revision is due to a 450,000- ton increase in South Korea's projected crop to 5.2 million tons--a result of a weather-induced revision in expected yields--and a 300,000-ton increase in the forecast for the Philippines' crop due to a revision in planted area. Nigeria's crop forecast was revised down 300,000 tons from last month. The Asian monsoon continues to provide good rains in most areas. Summer flooding was a concern in China, but estimates from a survey conducted by China's State Statistical Bureau put the early crop at 44 million tons (paddy), up 4 percent from last year. While heavy rainfall along the Yangtze Valley in central China and in the southwest damaged the early rice harvest in some areas, higher yields in other areas more than compensated. And with more late rice likely planted than previously expected and assuming normal weather for the remainder of the season, USDA still projects a near-record 130- million-ton (milled basis) crop for China. Forecasts for calendar 1996 trade were slightly lowered, to 18.8 million tons from 18.9 million (milled) last month. The month-to-month revision in exports was due to a 250,000-ton decrease in projected exports from Thailand to 5.25 million based on shipments to date--and a 50,000-ton drop in Burma's projected exports to 350,000 tons due to rising domestic prices and low stocks. Thailand's Board of Trade reported Thai exports were 4.07 million tons from January through the first week of October, more than 550,000 less than a year earlier. On the upside, China's projected exports were raised from 200,000 tons to 300,000--as the pace of its exports increased--and Uruguay's were increased from 450,000 tons to 550,000 as higher prices attracted exporters. On the import side, the month-to-month downward revision resulted from a 100,000-ton decrease in the Philippines' projected imports due to adequate purchases early in the year, and a 50,000-ton-drop in Mexico's projected imports to 300,00 tons--based on slower than expected shipments to date. In contrast, imports by China, Malaysia, Nigeria, Russia, and Turkey were all revised up from last month's projection. For 1997, continued strong demand from Brazil, China, Indonesia, and Iran is projected to keep imports robust, even with greater production in some of these countries. Projected trade for 1997 remained unchanged at 18.3 million tons. If realized, it would be the third highest ever, after 1995 and 1996. Although total trade remained unchanged, projected imports for two countries were revised down from last month's projection. South Korea's projected imports were revised from last month's 350,000 tons to the country's GATT- mandated 77,000 due to a bumper 1996 crop and rising stocks. In addition, projected imports by the Philippines were lowered from 1 million tons last month to 300,000 this month due to an increase in the 1996/97 projected crop and large imports in 1996. Greater imports in 1997 by Brazil, Indonesia, China, and Japan are projected to be nearly offset by reduced imports by Bangladesh, the Philippines, Iran, and North Korea. Indonesia is forecast to be the largest importer, taking 1.5 million tons (up from 1.25 million in 1996), followed by Brazil and China with 1.25 million tons each. Japan will import greater quantities of rice in 1997 than this year under the minimum access agreement of the GATT, boosting import demand for high-quality medium grain rice. Iran is projected to import 1 million tons in 1997, down 200,000 from this year. Thailand, the world's largest rice exporter, is forecast to export 5.5 million tons in 1997, 250,000 tons above this year but below its 1989 record of 6 million. India, which has seen generally favorable monsoons since 1988, is projected to rank number 2, shipping 3 million tons--down 250,000 from 1996. Vietnam's projected exports remain at 2.8 million tons for both 1996 and 1997, unchanged from last month's forecast, making the country the third largest exporter in both years. The U.S. is forecast to rank number 4, with exports of 2.3 million tons, down from 2.7 million in 1996. U.S. SITUATION AND OUTLOOK IN 1996/97 In October, USDA forecast the 1996 rice crop at 176.1 million cwt, up 2.7 percent from last month's forecast--due primarily to an upward revision in yield--and up 1.4 percent from 1995's crop. The year-to-year increase is due solely to an almost 8-percent increase in projected yield, to 6,053 cwt per harvested acre. If the yield is realized, it would exceed 1994's record 5,964 pounds. The yield increase is due to generally favorable weather and an acreage shift to California medium grain, which typically has 30- to 40- percent higher yields than either southern long and medium grain. Planted area is projected to be 2.91 million acres, up 1 percent from last month's projection but 6 percent below 1995. The year-to-year decrease was largely the result of the 1996 farm act that eliminated target prices and allowed producers tremendous planting flexibility. Also prices for alternative crops were relatively high at planting time. August 1 stocks were estimated at 25 million cwt (rough-equivalent basis) according to USDA's August 30 Rice Stocks, down 20 percent from a year earlier and the lowest since 1991. Total supplies are projected to be 208.8 million cwt--up 4.3 million from last month's projection due to the revision in crop size--but 1.8 percent below 1995/96 due to the smaller carryin. All of the month-to-month supply revision was allocated to exports and ending stocks. Disappearance is projected down 6.6 percent from 1995/96 to 181.1 million cwt. Continued growth in domestic food uses will only partly offset an 8.3-million- cwt drop in exports. Although projected smaller than last year, exports have been revised up 2 million tons from last month's projection, to 74 million cwt due to recent quickening in the pace of sales. Projected ending stocks--up 2.3 million tons from last month's projection--are nearly 11 percent greater than a year earlier, giving a 1996/97 stocks-to-use ratio of 15.3, up from 13.3 a year earlier. The 1996 rice harvest, which is nearly complete in the South, is proceeding well with the pace, yield, and quality all above average. As of October 6, 84 percent of the crop had been harvested--8 percentage points ahead of the 5- year average. Harvest was virtually complete in Texas and Louisiana, with both ahead of their 5-year averages. In both Arkansas--which accounts for 40 percent of U.S. rice output--and Mississippi, 87 percent of the crop had been harvested, 10 and 12 percentage points ahead of average. In California, which always lags the pace of the southern harvest, 45 percent of the crop had been harvested, 6 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. As this stage of the harvest, except for Missouri, field yields appear to be record or near-record over most of the South. Both milling yields and quality appear excellent thus far. California has some problem with blanking due to high temperatures in late July and early August. A breakdown of U.S. rice production by type indicates a 4.8-percent decrease in long grain production from 1995 to 115.8 million cwt. In contrast, medium and short grain production is projected to rise to 60.2 million cwt, up over 15 percent from 1995. Long grain supplies are projected to drop almost 7 percent from a year earlier due to a 30-percent smaller carryin and a weaker crop. A larger crop will allow medium and short grain supplies to rise 8.5 percent despite a near 10-percent reduction in carryin from last year. A 17-percent drop in exports is projected to raise 1996/97 long grain ending stocks 6 percent to 10.7 million cwt, yielding a long grain stocks-to-use ratio of 8.8 percent, just above last year's 7.6. The short and medium grain scenario is less tight, with ending stocks projected to rise 15 percent to 16.4 million cwt, and the ending stocks-to-use ratio to rise to 27.8 percent from 25.8. U.S. rice exports and sales commitments are running 20 percent behind last year's pace through the first 2 months of 1996/97, according to the U.S. Export Sales report of October 10, 1996. The pace supports USDA's 1996/97 U.S. export forecast of 74 million cwt, up 2 million from last month's projection, but down 10 percent from 1995/96. All of the year-to-year decline is for long grain, which is expected down 17 percent from 1995/96. Reduced U.S. long grain supplies and continued strong domestic growth in food use will support farm prices and help maintain the wide gap between U.S. high- quality long grain prices and those of Asian exporters. However, long grain rough rice exports to Latin America are likely to increase slightly. High- quality medium grain exports are projected to increase nearly 16 percent as Japan is expected to step up imports prior to the end of its 1996/97 fiscal year as part of its GATT minimum access commitments, and as traditional U.S. medium grain importers, such as Turkey, continue importing U.S. rice. INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION AND TRADE IN 1995/96 World rice production and consumption were probably record high in 1995/96, with use exceeding output by 670,000 tons, pulling ending stocks down 667,000 tons. The stocks-to-use ratio is estimated to have been about 13 percent, down from almost 13.5 percent in 1994/95. Exports in 1996 are projected down 10 percent to 18.8 million tons from 1995's record 20.97 million, reflecting a large drop in imports by Bangladesh, China, and Indonesia as 1995/96 production in these countries returns to normal. However, trade would still be second only to 1995's record. Adding strength in 1996 are expectations of substantially greater imports by Brazil, the Philippines, and Iraq. Trade will also be facilitated by large exportable supplies in Thailand, India, and Vietnam that will push prices down for low- and medium-quality imports. Global imports of medium-grain rice should remain strong in 1996 as Japan and South Korea meet gradually rising Uruguay Round rice import obligations. International demand for high-quality long grain will also remain strong in 1996 as Brazil, Iran, and Indonesia remain major importers and China, already a major importer, increases purchases. U.S. 1996 exports are projected to remain at 2.7 million tons, 12 percent below 1995. ****************************************************************************** * INFORMATION CONTACTS AT THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE: * * Nathan Childs (202) 501-8513 * * * * Next month's Rice Outlook will be available on November 13, 1996. * ****************************************************************************** Note: Detailed 1996/97 foreign supply and use forecasts are published on October 16 in the Foreign Agricultural Service's Grain: World Markets and Trade. Tables: Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1990/91 to present Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1994/95 to present Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1994/95 to present Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1991/92 to present Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1990/91 to 1996/97. Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1990/91 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1995/96 1996/97 Item | 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 | 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== | | TOTAL RICE | Percent | | | ARP | 20 5 0 5 0 | 5 N/A | | Area | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.897 2.884 3.176 2.920 3.353 | 3.121 2.935 Harvested | 2.823 2.781 3.132 2.833 3.316 | 3.093 2.909 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 5,529 5,731 5,736 5,510 5,964 | 5,621 6,053 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 26.3 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 | 31.4 25.0 Production | 156.1 159.4 179.7 156.1 197.8 | 173.9 176.1 Imports | 4.8 5.3 6.1 6.9 7.0 | 7.4 7.8 Total supply | 187.2 189.2 213.2 202.5 230.6 | 212.7 208.8 | | Food | 63.7 67.1 69.0 71.2 74.0 | 77.0 80.0 Seed | 3.6 3.9 3.6 4.2 4.1 | 4.1 4.0 Brewer's use | 15.3 15.5 15.1 15.1 15.2 | 15.1 15.1 Residual 4/ | 9.0 8.9 9.0 11.0 5.0 | 9.3 8.0 Domestic use | 91.6 95.4 96.7 101.5 98.3 | 105.5 107.1 | | Exports | 71.0 66.4 77.0 75.2 100.9 | 82.3 74.0 Rough | 4.8 6.3 5.1 3.6 18.5 | 10.7 12.0 Milled 5/ | 66.2 60.1 71.9 71.5 82.4 | 71.6 62.0 Total use | 162.6 161.8 173.7 176.7 199.2 | 187.7 181.1 | | Ending | | stocks | 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.4 | 25.0 27.7 CCC stocks | 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 | 0.0 0.0 Free stocks | 24.5 27.0 39.3 25.8 31.3 | 25.0 27.7 | | | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 15.1 16.9 22.7 14.6 15.8 | 13.3 15.3 | | | $/cwt | 8.50 Average farm | | to price 6/ | 6.68 7.58 5.89 7.98 6.78 | 9.09 9.50 | | | Percent | Average | | milling rate | 72.0 70.5 70.0 74.0 73.0 | 72.0 72.0 ============================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Marketing year weighted average prices received. Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1994/95 to present ============================================================================= | 1996/97 1995/96 1994/95 | -------------------- ------------------- ------------------- Month | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================= | August | 9.92 10,522 7.64 9,935 6.87 11,534 September | 9.90 1/ 10,522 7.95 12,010 6.89 12,610 October | 8.77 12,493 6.47 13,381 November | 9.12 12,951 6.53 15,470 December | 9.36 12,503 6.56 17,479 January | 9.33 13,130 6.78 17,781 February | 9.10 11,898 6.71 16,050 March | 9.31 14,690 6.64 17,565 April | 9.34 13,562 6.70 12,425 May | 9.69 11,538 6.75 16,848 June | 9.74 9,500 7.03 13,793 July | 9.68 10,142 7.17 9,847 | Average 2/ | 9.91 10,522 9.09 12,029 6.78 14,565 | Total 3/ | 8.75-9.75 4/ 144,352 174,783 ============================================================================= 1/ Preliminary midmonth price estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1996/97 is for August to current month. 3/ Total volume marketed. 4/ 1996/97 price range is USDA projection. Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1994/95 to present 1/ ============================================================================ | 1996/97 1995/96 1994/95 Month | -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ============================================================================ | | $/cwt | August | 7.69 7.84 7.96 7.93 6.22 6.06 5.33 5.64 5.33 September | 7.56 7.81 7.93 2/ 8.02 6.30 6.13 5.62 5.67 5.36 October | 8.81 6.67 6.51 5.74 5.61 5.32 November | 8.47 6.82 6.63 5.85 5.59 5.31 December | 8.17 7.16 6.95 5.82 5.59 5.31 January | 8.11 7.19 7.13 6.21 5.62 5.58 February | 7.90 7.49 7.67 6.41 5.70 5.66 March | 7.97 7.38 7.55 6.41 5.74 5.70 April | 7.68 7.25 7.42 6.41 5.74 5.70 May | 7.38 7.17 7.35 6.56 5.87 5.82 June | 7.64 7.42 7.60 7.38 6.03 6.00 July | 7.79 7.82 8.01 7.63 6.10 6.06 | Average 3/| 7.63 7.83 7.94 2/ 7.99 7.07 7.08 6.28 5.74 5.59 ============================================================================ 1/ Loan rate basis (rough); repayment rates for 1989-94 crops are the higher of the world price or 70 percent of the loan rate for the specified class of rice. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1991/92 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | 1996/97| 1995/96 | Country |--------|--------1995/96| 1994/95 1993/94 1992/93 1991/92 or | as of | as of | region |10/03/96|10/03/95 | Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== 1,000 metric tons European Union | 147 | 150 452 | 503 362 362 263 Other Western Europe| 8 | 9 19 | 42 18 47 44 Turkey | 63 | 81 187 | 279 67 191 154 Eastern Europe | 0 | 27 34 | 63 10 46 39 Former Soviet Union | 13 | 9 37 | 19 4 15 42 | | | Japan | 3 | 32 192 | 2 568 0 0 | | | OTHER ASIA AND | | | THE MIDDLE EAST | 149 | 232 365 | 612 349 438 228 Iran | 0 | 93 72 | 262 121 130 7 Iraq | 0 | 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 Saudi Arabia | 63 | 31 144 | 165 157 205 146 | | | AFRICA | 66 | 148 346 | 307 258 315 244 Cote d'Ivoire | 6 | 81 82 | 77 67 92 56 Senegal | 0 | 15 5 | 43 75 87 37 Republic of | | | South Africa | 30 | 36 164 | 115 90 111 103 | | | WESTERN HEMISPHERE | 243 | 206 1,044 | 1,617 513 663 771 Canada | 40 | 48 116 | 139 91 98 88 Mexico | 79 | 33 320 | 332 177 249 118 Haiti | 5 | 46 121 | 153 43 117 97 Jamaica | 17 | 35 80 | 80 63 30 56 Brazil | 0 | 0 1 | 368 12 0 187 | | | Total | 713 | 895 2,678 | 3,426 2,149 2,075 1,783 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census Bureau 2/ |2,420 4/| 2,690 | 3,601 2,625 2,555 2,241 Difference 3/ | 318 | 12 | 175 476 480 458 ============================================================================== Note: The "U.S. Export Sales" report shows sales and shipments in product weight. The milled equivalent total may vary significantly from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales" report FAS, USDA. Columns labeled "as of" represent combined exports plus sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census Bureau rice export total (reported on a milled equivalent basis) is the official export total. 3/ The "U.S. Export Sales" report does not include U.S. Government exports under under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 4/ USDA forecast, milled equivalent. 5/ The average difference between the Census and the "U.S. Export Sales" report for 1990/91-1994/95. Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present ============================================================================== | U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Month | ------------------------- ------------------------------------- or | Long Medium marketing | grain 3/ grain 4/ Parboiled 100% 5% par- 15% 35% A.1 6/ year 1/ | Houston Calif. Houston grade B boiled broken broken special ============================================================================== | | $/metric ton 7/ | 1986/87 | 240 282 311 190 171 173 154 122 1987/88 | 421 366 486 273 261 256 236 204 1988/89 | 324 361 386 292 284 275 256 232 1989/90 | 342 352 400 292 259 262 214 172 1990/91 | 331 347 400 296 277 261 213 169 1991/92 | 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 | 322 383 349 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 | 439 451 480 294 244 243 208 160 | Aug '94 | 313 428 353 259 271 237 222 200 Sep '94 | 309 397 344 267 265 246 233 210 Oct '94 | 304 397 331 272 262 249 238 216 Nov '94 | 298 397 331 272 263 249 236 215 Dec '94 | 298 397 331 270 259 250 237 222 Jan '95 | 298 366 331 282 264 265 252 232 Feb '95 | 298 358 342 289 266 270 255 226 Mar '95 | 298 353 342 292 269 272 253 222 Apr '95 | 298 353 342 290 269 271 254 226 May '95 | 311 353 346 299 274 279 262 239 Jun '95 | 358 353 380 333 305 314 297 276 Jul '95 | 392 353 406 353 341 335 321 297 1994/95 | 314 375 348 290 276 270 255 232 | Aug '95 | 386 364 419 346 343 327 310 288 Sep '95 | 386 380 424 368 354 346 322 285 Oct '95 | 430 432 485 393 373 372 340 293 Nov '95 | 441 441 463 354 342 334 315 296 Dec '95 | 419 496 463 347 337 326 307 278 Jan '96 | 410 507 454 372 355 350 321 271 Feb '96 | 402 474 449 377 357 348 307 256 Mar '96 | 397 463 441 373 350 344 301 260 Apr '96 | 406 459 454 342 316 310 272 245 May '96 | 430 441 471 347 318 312 272 244 Jun '96 | 430 441 474 360 339 322 275 240 Jul '96 | 430 441 474 370 347 335 281 229 1995/96 | 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 | Aug '96 | 446 441 491 346 330 314 265 213 Sep '96 | 452 441 481 341 331 311 264 216 Oct '96 8/| 452 435 474 321 332 290 249 209 1996/97 8/| 450 439 482 336 331 305 259 213 ============================================================================== NA = Not available. 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. embassy, Bangkok. 6/ 100 percent broken. 7/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 8/ preliminary. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1990/91 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1995/96 1996/97 Item | 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 | 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.129 2.113 2.408 2.102 2.410 | 2.335 Harvested | 2.065 2.023 2.372 2.028 2.379 | 2.312 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 5,221 5,395 5,397 5,082 5,609 | 5,265 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 13.2 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 | 14.5 10.1 Production | 107.8 109.1 128.0 103.1 133.4 | 121.7 115.8 Imports | 4.3 4.7 5.4 6.2 6.0 | 6.3 6.8 Total supply | 125.3 125.4 146.4 130.9 154.5 | 142.5 132.7 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 57.8 61.4 60.8 67.2 59.0 | 67.4 68.0 Exports | 56.0 51.0 64.0 48.6 81.0 | 65.0 54.0 Total use | 113.8 112.4 124.8 115.8 140.0 | 132.4 122.0 | | Ending stocks | 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.5 | 10.1 10.7 | | Stocks-to- | Percent | use ratio | 10.1 11.6 17.3 13.0 10.3 | 7.6 8.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN | | Million acres | | | Planted | 0.768 0.771 0.768 0.818 0.943 | 0.786 Harvested | 0.758 0.758 0.760 0.805 0.937 | 0.781 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 6,370 6,627 6,795 6,590 6,866 | 6,676 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 11.6 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 | 15.8 14.3 Production | 48.3 50.2 51.6 53.0 64.3 | 52.1 60.2 Imports | 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 | 1.2 1.0 Total supply | 60.5 62.4 64.8 70.9 74.9 | 69.6 75.5 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 33.8 34.1 35.9 34.3 39.2 | 38.1 39.1 Exports | 15.0 15.4 13.0 26.6 19.9 | 17.3 20.0 Total use | 48.8 49.5 48.9 60.9 59.1 | 55.3 59.1 | | Ending stocks | 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 | 14.3 16.4 | | Stocks-to- | Percent | use ratio | 24.0 26.1 32.4 16.4 26.8 | 25.8 27.8 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Ending stocks | | difference 1/ | 1.4 1.4 2.0 0.7 1.1 | 0.6 0.6 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the stock total for all types of rice in Table 1. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. END-OF-FILE