RICE OUTLOOK November 13, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. RCS-1196. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o The U.S. season average farm price (SAFP) for 1996/97 is projected to be $8.75 to $9.75 per cwt, up 25 cents on both the high and low end from October's forecast. The increase is due to a pick-up in export sales in the second half of October and to continued high monthly farm prices. o The 1996 U.S. rice crop is pegged at 174 million cwt, down 1.2 percent from last month's forecast--due to a downward revision in projected yield--and nearly equal to 1995's crop. o The 1996 yield is projected to be a record 5,981 pounds per acre, down 1.2 percent from the October projection--primarily due to a cut in California's expected yield--and 17 pounds greater than the 1994 record. o The decline in international rice prices that began in July continued through October. The drop this fall has primarily been due to large harvests across most of Asia and a lack of any new sizable orders. o The international rice market has been boosted slightly by Japan's October 24 tender for 115,800 tons of rice for delivery this year: 50,000 tons of medium grain from California, the rest from Thailand and Australia. NEAR-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: U.S. FARM PRICES REMAIN FIRM The 1996/97 (August/July) season average farm price (SAFP) is projected to be $8.75 to $9.75 per cwt, up 25 cents on the high and low end from last month's projection, with the midpoint above 1995/96's season average price of $9.09. The SAFP is likely to remain firm as expectations of relatively strong export demand for high-quality long and medium grain rice, steadily rising domestic food use, and continued tight U.S. supplies of long grain rice--partly the result of farmers holding on to supplies--combine to support U.S. rice prices. However, with exports accounting for around 40 percent of total disappearance, activities in the global rice market will continue to affect U.S. farm prices. U.S. farm level rice prices strengthened in May and remained strong through the first half of October. Last month, USDA estimated October's mid-month farm price at $9.80 per cwt and raised the September estimate to $9.95 from a preliminary $9.90. For the season average price to equal the midpoint of the forecast range, prices must average $9.04 per cwt for the remaining 9 months of the marketing year. Average monthly farm prices have exceeded $9 per cwt since November 1995 and have topped $9.50 since May. INTERNATIONAL PRICES CONTINUE STEADY DECLINE International rice prices, which had stabilized from mid-August to mid- September after declining sharply in late July, have again declined in the face of no new sizable orders and large harvests across most of Asia. Offer quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. out of Bangkok) fell from $344 a metric ton in late August to $324 by October and early November. Prices had been as low as $315 in mid-October, but on October 24, Japan held a tender for 115,800 tons of rice--of which 35,800 were bought from Thailand--boosting Thai prices slightly. As recently as mid-July, prices had been $376 a ton, due to strong import demand during the first half of 1996 and low exportable supplies. But since late summer, major buyers such as Brazil, Indonesia, and the Philippines have largely been absent from the market. In addition, Japan, which is harvesting a large crop this year, will likely postpone much of the remainder--almost 70 percent--of its GATT-mandated fiscal 1996/97 (April-March) purchases until early 1997. Japan has already purchased 39,500 tons--mostly from Thailand--as part of its 1996/97 purchases. Prices for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice--No. 2, 4-percent broken offer quotes out of Houston--dropped $11 to $441 a ton in late October, due to weak export demand for long grain rice at that time and a large U.S. harvest. These prices were $430 a ton from early May through early August, but jumped to $452 in mid-August due to scarce supplies of high-quality U.S. rice available for either the domestic or export market. The dropping Thai price in the face of steady-to-rising U.S. rice prices widened the U.S. premium over Thai rice to $111 in September and to $125 in October. These were the highest premiums since June 1994. The recent drop in U.S. long grain export prices and a stabilizing Thai price dropped the premium to $117 in early November. The uptick in Thai prices that occurred early in the summer reduced the premium to $70 per ton in June and to $60 in July, down from $83 in May. U.S. rice is thought to be competitive in world markets at a premium of $30-$40 over Thai rice. Prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, f.o.b.) have remained at $430 per ton since mid-October, down from $441 since late April. Prices had been $463 per ton prior to mid-April and were over $500 in January. Prices for California medium grain had maintained an $11 premium over U.S. long grain (No. 2, 4-percent broken, f.o.b. Gulf port) from early May through early August, the smallest since last November. The mid-August jump in Texas long grain prices reversed the premium, giving U.S. long grain an $11 premium over California medium grain, that rose to $22 in mid-October with the drop in medium grain prices. When long grain prices also dropped in late-October, the long grain premium returned to $11. The current lack of a price premium for U.S. medium grain rice has primarily been due to Japan's absence from the market for japonica rice--prior to its October 24 tender for 115,800 tons, mostly japonica--following large purchases earlier this year. Korea's purchase of its GATT-required rice from China in June was also a factor. South Korea had been expected to turn to the U.S. to meet its GATT commitments and/or replenish its stocks. Japan is expected to complete the remaining roughly 70 percent of its GATT-mandated purchases before the end of its 1996/97 fiscal year (April-March). The U.S. is a likely supplier of much of this additional trade and California medium grain prices will eventually reflect the increased demand. Prices for lower quality rice have generally been falling for a year. Quotes for A.1 Special (100 percent broken, f.o.b. Bangkok) averaged $206 per ton in early November, down slightly from $208 in October and around $216 in August and September. Prices had been $240 in June and $260 in March. Ample supplies and little interest from importers account for the low prices. The late July and August drop in the high-quality international prices reduced the high-quality price premium--measured by the difference between Bangkok's f.o.b. price quotes for 100-percent grade B and for A.1 Special--to $133 in August--down from $141 in July. The premium further dropped to $126 in September and to $116 in October as high-quality rice prices were dropping faster than low-quality prices. The early November stabilization of the Thai 100-percent grade B price has halted this decline. Nonetheless, the high- quality price premium could decline further when Thailand's main crop, harvested in November, becomes available. GLOBAL TRADE TO REMAIN STRONG IN 1996 and 1997 World production and consumption are projected to reach records in 1996/97, with production up over 2 percent and use up 1.8 percent from 1995/96. Production, forecast to reach 378.7 million tons (milled basis), will be slightly above consumption, forecast at 377.9 million (milled basis), allowing ending stocks to rise 1.5 percent to a projected 49.5 million tons, the first increase since 1990/91. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at almost 13.1 percent, just below last year's and the smallest since 1974/75. This month's projected world 1996/97 production is up 2.5 million tons (milled basis) from last month's forecast. The upward revision is primarily due to a 2-million-ton increase in China's projected crop to 132 million tons. China's larger crop is due to a 4-percent larger early crop than last year's, a projected record 480-million ton total grain crop, and favorable weather thus far for the late crop harvest. In addition, Japan's crop was revised up 200,000 tons to 9.4 million due to favorable weather at harvest. The projection for Australia's crop was raised 50,000 tons to 950,000 due to an increase in the estimated planted area by the Government of Australia. Cambodia's projected crop was raised 800,000 tons to 2.2 million due to a large increase in projected area, and Argentina's projected crop was raised slightly due to a revised yield projection. In contrast, the projection for Indonesia's crop was dropped 500,000 tons--based on a drop in expected yield-- although the crop would still be up 800,000 tons from a year earlier. The weather over much of Asia has been favorable to this fall's harvest. However, severe flooding in late September and most of October has been a concern in Thailand, Vietnam, India, and Laos. Floods damaged nearly a million hectares of riceland in central Thailand, possibly hurting the quality of some of the crop and potentially cutting the size of the main crop. The flood temporarily made it difficult to get rice to ports for export. Flooding in Vietnam also may have damaged the quality of the crop and reduced the size from prior expectations. In addition, the flooding made it difficult to ship rice to ports, lowering the price to farmers because proper storage was inadequate. By late October, transportation problems in Vietnam and Thailand were largely over. In India, torrential rains in early November damaged rice growing areas in the southeast, especially the provinces of Andhra Pradesh--a major rice growing region of India--and Tamil Nadu, setting back the rice crop currently being harvested and possibly lowering the crop size from earlier projections. These rains follow even worse flooding last month. The Laotian government reported likely flood damage to its rice crop from rains in August and September. Forecasts for calendar 1996 trade were slightly raised, to 19.1 million tons from 18.8 million (milled) last month. Exports would be almost 2 million tons below 1995's record. The month-to-month revision was primarily due to a 200,000-ton increase in projected exports from Vietnam to 3 million tons based on shipments to date. India accounts for the bulk of the year-to-year decline, with exports dropping from 4.2 to 3.25 million tons. And while Thailand's projected exports remained unchanged from last month at 5.25 million tons, they are down from 5.93 in 1995. Thailand's Board of Trade reported exports of 4.45 million tons from January through the first 10 days of November, more than 564,000 less than a year earlier. Burma is also projected to export less rice in 1996. On the upside, China's projected exports for 1996 are 300,000 tons--up substantially from just 32,000 last year--and Australia is projected to show an increase of almost 100,000 tons. On the import side, the month-to-month upward revision resulted from a 50,000- ton increase in Kenya's projected imports as well as increases for Honduras and Cambodia. In contrast, imports by Ghana were lowered 50,000 tons to 125,000 based on shipments to date and a larger crop. Substantial drops in imports by Bangladesh, China, and Indonesia account for much of the decline from the 1995 record--although all three countries remain major buyers. Projected trade for 1997 was increased 100,000 tons from last month to 18.4 million. If realized, it would be the third highest ever, after 1995 and 1996. The month-to-month increase in 1977 imports was largely due to revisions in imports for Honduras and Kenya--to be consistent with revisions for 1996--and an upward revision in Cambodia's exports. Strong demand from Brazil, China, Indonesia, and Iran is projected to keep imports robust in 1997, even with more production in some of these countries. Greater imports by Brazil, Indonesia, China, and Japan are projected to almost offset reduced imports by Bangladesh, the Philippines, Iran, and North Korea. Indonesia is projected to be the largest importer, taking 1.5 million tons, up from 1.25 million this year. A growing population and a loss of riceland on Java account for much of Indonesia's rising imports. Brazil and China are each projected to import 1.25 million tons, up from 1 million and 850,000 this year. Japan will import greater quantities of rice in 1997 than this year under the minimum access agreement of the GATT, boosting import demand for high-quality medium grain rice. Iran's imports are projected to drop to 1 million tons in 1997, down from 1.2 million this year. Thailand, the world's largest exporter, is forecast to export 5.5 million tons in 1997, up 250,000 from this year, but below its 1989 record of 6 million. India, which has seen generally favorable monsoons since 1988, is projected to rank number 2, shipping 3 million tons--down 250,000 from 1996. Vietnam's projected exports remain at 2.8 million tons for 1997, unchanged from last month's forecast, but down 200,000 tons from this year. Vietnam would be the third largest exporter in both years. The U.S. is forecast to rank number 4, with exports of 2.3 million tons, down from 2.7 million in 1996. U.S. SITUATION AND OUTLOOK FOR 1996/97 In November, USDA forecast the 1996 rice crop at 174 million cwt, down 1.2 percent from last month's forecast--due to a downward revision in yield--and nearly equal to 1995's crop. Although revised downward from last month, the 1996 projected yield, if realized, would exceed 1994's record 5,964 pounds by 17 pounds. The year-to-year yield increase is due to generally favorable weather and an acreage shift to California medium grain, which typically has 30-to 40-percent higher yields than either southern long or medium grain. Planted area is estimated at almost 2.94 million acres, the same as last month's projection but 6 percent below 1995. The decrease stemmed largely from the 1996 farm act that eliminated target prices and allowed producers tremendous planting flexibility. Also, prices for alternative crops were relatively high at planting time. August 1 stocks were estimated at 25 million cwt (rough-equivalent basis), down 20 percent from a year earlier and the lowest since 1991. Total supplies are projected to be 206.7 million cwt--down 2.1 million from last month's projection due to the revision in crop size--and 2.8 percent below 1995/96 due to the smaller carryin. All of the month-to-month drop in projected supply was allocated to ending stocks. Disappearance is projected down 3.5 percent from 1995/96 to 181.1 million cwt. Continued growth in domestic food uses will only partly offset an 8.3-million- cwt drop in exports. Projected ending stocks--down 7.6 percent from last month's projection--are 2.4 percent greater than a year earlier, giving a 1996/97 stocks-to-use ratio of 14.1, up from 13.3 a year earlier. The 1996 rice harvest is complete in the South and nearly complete in California. Except for Missouri, field yields appear to be records (or tied with records) in the four other southern rice producing States. And both milling yields and quality appear excellent. In contrast, California has had problems with blanking--incomplete filling of the kernel, blast, and weeds. The blanking is due to extremely high temperatures in late July and early August. And for the first time anyone can recall, the disease blast has attacked some acreage in California--possibly due to the hot humid days followed by hot humid nights in August. The State's yield is projected at 7,400 pounds per acre, down from 7,800 projected last month and well below 1994's record 8,400 and short of last year's 7,600 pounds. A breakdown of U.S. rice production by type indicates a 5.9-percent decrease in long grain production from 1995 to 114.5 million cwt. In contrast, medium and short grain production is projected to rise to 59.5 million cwt, up 14.2 percent from 1995. Projections for both long and medium/short grain crops are down more than 1.1 percent from last month's projection--a result of lower yield projections. Long grain supplies are projected to drop almost 8 percent from a year earlier due to a 30-percent smaller carryin and a slightly weaker crop. A larger crop will allow medium and short grain supplies to rise 7.5 percent despite a 9.5-percent reduction in carryin from last year. A 17-percent drop in exports is projected to raise 1996/97 long grain ending stocks 2 percent to 10.3 million cwt, yielding a long grain stocks-to-use ratio of 8.5 percent, above last year's 7.6. The short and medium grain scenario is less tight, with ending stocks projected to rise almost 3 percent to 14.7 million cwt, and the ending stocks-to-use ratio is expected to drop slightly to 24.5 percent from 25.9 in 1995/96. U.S. rice exports and sales commitments are running 17 percent behind last year's pace through the first 3 months of 1996/97, according to the U.S. Export Sales report of November 7, 1996. The pace supports USDA's 1996/97 U.S. export forecast of 74 million cwt. One month ago, U.S. exports were 20 percent behind a year earlier, but sales accelerated in the second half of October. Net sales were 82 percent above the previous week and 17 percent above the 4-week average for the week ended October 24, largely the result of Japan's purchase of 40,000 tons. In the last week of October, net sales were up 8 percent from the previous week and 36 percent ahead of the 4-week average, largely due to purchases by Haiti and Japan. Reduced U.S. long grain supplies and continued strong growth in domestic food use will support farm prices and help maintain the wide gap between U.S. high- quality long grain prices and those of Asian exporters. However, long grain rough rice exports to Latin America are likely to increase 12 percent, to 12 million cwt in 1996/97. U.S. medium grain exports are projected to increase nearly 16 percent as Japan is expected to step up imports prior to the end of its 1996/97 fiscal year to meet its GATT minimum access commitments, and as traditional U.S. medium grain importers, such as Turkey, continue importing U.S. rice. Note: Printed copies of the 1996 Rice Situation & Outlook Yearbook will be available in early December. To order, call 1-800-999-6779. ****************************************************************************** * INFORMATION CONTACTS AT THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE: * * Nathan Childs (202) 501-8513 * * * * Next month's Rice Outlook will be available on December 13, 1996. * ****************************************************************************** Note: Detailed 1996/97 foreign supply and use forecasts are published on November 14, in the Foreign Agricultural Service's Grain: World Markets and Trade. Tables: Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1990/91 to present Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1994/95 to present Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1994/95 to present Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1991/92 to present Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1990/91 to 1996/97. Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1990/91 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1995/96 1996/97 Item | 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 | 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== | | TOTAL RICE | Percent | | | ARP | 20 5 0 5 0 | 5 N/A | | Area | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.897 2.884 3.176 2.920 3.353 | 3.121 2.935 Harvested | 2.823 2.781 3.132 2.833 3.316 | 3.093 2.909 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 5,529 5,731 5,736 5,510 5,964 | 5,621 5,981 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 26.3 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 | 31.4 25.0 Production | 156.1 159.4 179.7 156.1 197.8 | 173.9 174.0 Imports | 4.8 5.3 6.1 6.9 7.0 | 7.4 7.8 Total supply | 187.2 189.2 213.2 202.5 230.6 | 212.7 206.7 | | Food | 63.7 67.1 69.0 71.2 74.0 | 77.0 80.0 Seed | 3.6 3.9 3.6 4.2 4.1 | 4.1 4.0 Brewer's use | 15.3 15.5 15.1 15.1 15.2 | 15.1 15.1 Residual 4/ | 9.0 8.9 9.0 11.0 5.0 | 9.3 8.0 Domestic use | 91.6 95.4 96.7 101.5 98.3 | 105.5 107.1 | | Exports | 71.0 66.4 77.0 75.2 100.9 | 82.3 74.0 Rough | 4.8 6.3 5.1 3.6 18.5 | 10.7 12.0 Milled 5/ | 66.2 60.1 71.9 71.5 82.4 | 71.6 62.0 Total use | 162.6 161.8 173.7 176.7 199.2 | 187.7 181.1 | | Ending | | stocks | 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.4 | 25.0 25.6 CCC stocks | 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 | 0.0 0.0 Free stocks | 24.5 27.0 39.3 25.8 31.3 | 25.0 25.6 | | | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 15.1 16.9 22.7 14.6 15.8 | 13.3 14.1 | | | $/cwt | 8.75 Average farm | | to price 6/ | 6.68 7.58 5.89 7.98 6.78 | 9.09 9.75 | | | Percent | Average | | milling rate | 72.0 70.5 70.0 74.0 73.0 | 72.0 72.0 ============================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Marketing year weighted average prices received. Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1994/95 to present ============================================================================= | 1996/97 1995/96 1994/95 | -------------------- ------------------- ------------------- Month | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================= | August | 9.92 10,522 7.64 9,935 6.87 11,534 September | 9.95 13,305 7.95 12,010 6.89 12,610 October | 9.80 1/ 11,914 8.77 12,493 6.47 13,381 November | 9.12 12,951 6.53 15,470 December | 9.36 12,503 6.56 17,479 January | 9.33 13,130 6.78 17,781 February | 9.10 11,898 6.71 16,050 March | 9.31 14,690 6.64 17,565 April | 9.34 13,562 6.70 12,425 May | 9.69 11,538 6.75 16,848 June | 9.74 9,500 7.03 13,793 July | 9.68 10,142 7.17 9,847 | Average 2/ | 9.89 11,914 9.09 12,029 6.78 14,565 | Total 3/ | 8.75-9.75 4/ 144,352 174,783 ============================================================================= 1/ Preliminary midmonth price estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1996/97 is for August to current month. 3/ Total volume marketed. 4/ 1996/97 price range is USDA projection. Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1994/95 to present 1/ ============================================================================ | 1996/97 1995/96 1994/95 Month | -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ============================================================================ | | $/cwt | August | 7.69 7.84 7.96 7.93 6.22 6.06 5.33 5.64 5.33 September | 7.56 7.81 7.93 8.02 6.30 6.13 5.62 5.67 5.36 October | 7.39 7.73 7.85 8.81 6.67 6.51 5.74 5.61 5.32 November | 7.11 7.58 7.70 2/ 8.47 6.82 6.63 5.85 5.59 5.31 December | 8.17 7.16 6.95 5.82 5.59 5.31 January | 8.11 7.19 7.13 6.21 5.62 5.58 February | 7.90 7.49 7.67 6.41 5.70 5.66 March | 7.97 7.38 7.55 6.41 5.74 5.70 April | 7.68 7.25 7.42 6.41 5.74 5.70 May | 7.38 7.17 7.35 6.56 5.87 5.82 June | 7.64 7.42 7.60 7.38 6.03 6.00 July | 7.79 7.82 8.01 7.63 6.10 6.06 | Average 3/| 7.44 7.74 7.86 2/ 7.99 7.07 7.08 6.28 5.74 5.59 ============================================================================ 1/ Loan rate basis (rough); repayment rates for 1989-94 crops are the higher of the world price or 70 percent of the loan rate for the specified class of rice. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1991/92 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | 1996/97| 1995/96 | Country |--------|-------- 1995/96|1994/95 1993/94 1992/93 1991/92 or | as of | as of | region |10/31/96| 10/31/95 Final | Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== 1,000 metric tons European Union | 167 | 173 452 | 503 362 362 263 Other Western Europe| 8 | 10 19 | 42 18 47 44 Turkey | 63 | 82 187 | 279 67 191 154 Eastern Europe | 0 | 29 34 | 63 10 46 39 Former Soviet Union | 15 | 10 37 | 19 4 15 42 | | | Japan | 54 | 92 192 | 2 568 0 0 | | | OTHER ASIA AND | | | THE MIDDLE EAST | 157 | 267 365 | 612 349 438 228 Iran | 0 | 93 72 | 262 121 130 7 Iraq | 0 | 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 Saudi Arabia | 67 | 56 144 | 165 157 205 146 | | | AFRICA | 81 | 172 346 | 307 258 315 244 Cote d'Ivoire | 18 | 81 82 | 77 67 92 56 Senegal | 0 | 15 5 | 43 75 87 37 Republic of | | | South Africa | 34 | 36 164 | 115 90 111 103 | | | WESTERN HEMISPHERE | 349 | 248 1,044 | 1,617 513 663 771 Canada | 63 | 54 116 | 139 91 98 88 Mexico | 102 | 47 320 | 332 177 249 118 Haiti | 35 | 57 121 | 153 43 117 97 Jamaica | 23 | 35 80 | 80 63 30 56 Brazil | 0 | 0 1 | 368 12 0 187 | | | Total | 894 | 1,083 2,678 | 3,426 2,149 2,075 1,783 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census Bureau 2/ |2,420 4/| 2,687 | 3,601 2,625 2,555 2,241 Difference 3/ | 397 | 9 | 175 476 480 458 ============================================================================== Note: The report "U.S. Export Sales" reports sales and shipments in product weight. The milled equivalent total may vary significantly from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales," FAS, USDA. Columns labeled "as of" represent combined exports plus sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census Bureau rice export total (reported on a milled equivalent basis) is the official export total. 3/ "U.S. Export Sales" does not include U.S. Government exports under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 4/ USDA forecast, milled equivalent. 5/ The average difference between the Census and the "U.S. Export Sales" for 1991/92 to 1994/95. Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present ============================================================================== | U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Month | ------------------------- ------------------------------------- or | Long Medium marketing | grain 3/ grain 4/ Parboiled 100% 5% par- 15% 35% A.1 6/ year 1/ | Houston Calif. Houston grade B boiled broken broken special ============================================================================== | | $/metric ton 7/ | 1986/87 | 240 282 311 190 171 173 154 122 1987/88 | 421 366 486 273 261 256 236 204 1988/89 | 324 361 386 292 284 275 256 232 1989/90 | 342 352 400 292 259 262 214 172 1990/91 | 331 347 400 296 277 261 213 169 1991/92 | 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 | 322 383 349 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 | 439 451 480 294 244 243 208 160 | Aug '94 | 313 428 353 259 271 237 222 200 Sep '94 | 309 397 344 267 265 246 233 210 Oct '94 | 304 397 331 272 262 249 238 216 Nov '94 | 298 397 331 272 263 249 236 215 Dec '94 | 298 397 331 270 259 250 237 222 Jan '95 | 298 366 331 282 264 265 252 232 Feb '95 | 298 358 342 289 266 270 255 226 Mar '95 | 298 353 342 292 269 272 253 222 Apr '95 | 298 353 342 290 269 271 254 226 May '95 | 311 353 346 299 274 279 262 239 Jun '95 | 358 353 380 333 305 314 297 276 Jul '95 | 392 353 406 353 341 335 321 297 | 1994/95 | 314 375 348 290 276 270 255 232 | Aug '95 | 386 364 419 346 343 327 310 288 Sep '95 | 386 380 424 368 354 346 322 285 Oct '95 | 430 432 485 393 373 372 340 293 Nov '95 | 441 441 463 354 342 334 315 296 Dec '95 | 419 496 463 347 337 326 307 278 Jan '96 | 410 507 454 372 355 350 321 271 Feb '96 | 402 474 449 377 357 348 307 256 Mar '96 | 397 463 441 373 350 344 301 260 Apr '96 | 406 459 454 342 316 310 272 245 May '96 | 430 441 471 347 318 312 272 244 Jun '96 | 430 441 474 360 339 322 275 240 Jul '96 | 430 441 474 370 347 335 281 229 | 1995/96 | 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 | Aug '96 | 446 441 491 346 330 314 265 213 Sep '96 | 452 441 478 341 331 311 264 216 Oct '96 | 449 433 474 324 330 293 250 208 Nov '96 8/| 441 430 463 324 325 292 247 206 | 1996/97 8/| 447 436 476 334 329 302 256 211 ============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. embassy, Bangkok. 6/ 100 percent broken. 7/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 8/ Preliminary. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1990/91 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1995/96 1996/97 Item | 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 | 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.129 2.113 2.408 2.102 2.410 | 2.335 Harvested | 2.065 2.023 2.372 2.028 2.379 | 2.312 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 5,221 5,395 5,397 5,082 5,609 | 5,265 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 13.2 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 | 14.5 10.1 Production | 107.8 109.1 128.0 103.1 133.4 | 121.7 114.5 Imports | 4.3 4.7 5.4 6.2 6.0 | 6.3 6.8 Total supply | 125.3 125.4 146.4 130.9 154.5 | 142.5 131.3 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 57.8 61.4 60.8 67.2 59.0 | 67.4 67.0 Exports | 56.0 51.0 64.0 48.6 81.0 | 65.0 54.0 Total use | 113.8 112.4 124.8 115.8 140.0 | 132.4 121.0 | | Ending stocks | 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.5 | 10.1 10.3 | | Stocks-to- | Percent | use ratio | 10.1 11.6 17.3 13.0 10.3 | 7.6 8.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN | | Million acres | | | Planted | 0.768 0.771 0.768 0.818 0.943 | 0.786 Harvested | 0.758 0.758 0.760 0.805 0.937 | 0.781 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 6,370 6,627 6,795 6,590 6,866 | 6,676 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 11.6 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 | 15.8 14.3 Production | 48.3 50.2 51.6 53.0 64.3 | 52.1 59.5 Imports | 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 | 1.2 1.0 Total supply | 60.5 62.4 64.8 70.9 74.9 | 69.6 74.8 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 33.8 34.1 35.9 34.3 39.2 | 38.1 40.1 Exports | 15.0 15.4 13.0 26.6 19.9 | 17.3 20.0 Total use | 48.8 49.5 48.9 60.9 59.1 | 55.3 60.1 | | Ending stocks | 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 | 14.3 14.7 | | Stocks-to- | Percent | use ratio | 24.0 26.1 32.4 16.4 26.8 | 25.8 24.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Ending stocks | | difference 1/ | 1.4 1.4 2.0 0.7 1.1 | 0.6 0.6 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the stock total for all types of rice in Table 1. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. END-OF-FILE