RICE OUTLOOK December 13, 1996 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. RCS-1296. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o The U.S. season average farm price (SAFP) for 1996/97 is projected to be $8.75 to $9.75 per cwt, unchanged from last month's forecast. o The 1996 U.S. rice crop is pegged at 174 million cwt, unchanged from last month's forecast and nearly equal to 1995's crop. o The 1996 yield is projected to be a record 5,981 pounds per acre, up 6 percent from last year and 17 pounds greater than the 1994 record. o The decline in international rice prices that began in July continued into December. The drop this fall has primarily been due to large harvests across most of Asia and a lack of any new sizable orders. NEAR-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: U.S. FARM PRICES REMAIN FIRM The 1996/97 (August/July) season average farm price (SAFP) is projected to be $8.75 to $9.75 per cwt, unchanged from last month's projection, with the midpoint above 1995/96's season average price of $9.15. The SAFP is likely to remain firm as expectations of relatively strong export demand for high- quality long and medium grain rice, steadily rising domestic food use, and continued tight U.S. supplies of long grain rice--partly because of farmers holding on to supplies--support U.S. rice prices. However, with exports accounting for around 40 percent of total disappearance, activities in the global rice market will continue to affect U.S. farm prices. U.S. farm level rice prices strengthened in May and remained strong through the first half of November. Last month, USDA estimated November's mid-month farm price at $9.35 per cwt and lowered the October estimate to $9.54 from a preliminary $9.80. For the season average price to equal the midpoint of the forecast range, prices must average $9.03 per cwt for the remaining 8 months of the marketing year. Average monthly farm prices have exceeded $9 per cwt since November 1995. INTERNATIONAL PRICES CONTINUE STEADY DECLINE International rice prices, which had stabilized from mid-August to mid-September after declining sharply in late July, have again declined in the face of no new sizable orders and large harvests across most of Asia. Offer quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) fell from $344 a metric ton in late August to $322 by mid-December. Prices had been as low as $315 in mid-October, but on October 24, Japan held a tender for 115,800 tons of rice--of which 35,800 were bought from Thailand--boosting Thai prices slightly. Japan's November 14 tender for 130,000 tons--of which Thailand received 30,000 tons--also boosted trading prices slightly. But prices soon fell back to the low $320's per ton. As recently as mid-July, prices had been $376 a ton, due to strong import demand during the first half of 1996 and low exportable supplies. But since late summer, major buyers such as Brazil, Indonesia, and the Philippines have largely been absent from the market. Prices for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice--No. 2, 4-percent broken offer quotes out of Houston--dropped $11 to $430 a ton in late November, after posting a similar $11 drop in late October. The recent decline in price has been due to weak export demand for long grain rice and a large U.S. harvest. Prices had averaged $430 a ton from early May through early August, but jumped to $452 in mid-August due to scarce supplies of high-quality U.S. rice available for either the domestic or export market. The Thai price has recently dropped more slowly than the U.S. price, lowering the U.S. premium over Thai rice to $113 per ton in November and $108 by mid-December. The premium had been $125 in October, prior to the drop in U.S. long grain export prices. These were the highest premiums since June 1994 when the premium was $154. The uptick in Thai prices that occurred early in the summer reduced the premium to $70 per ton in June and $60 in July, down from $83 in May. U.S. rice is thought to be competitive in world markets at a premium of $30-$40 over Thai rice. Prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, f.o.b.) have remained at $430 per ton since mid-October, down from $441 since late April. Prices had been $463 per ton prior to mid-April and were over $500 in January. Prices for California medium grain had maintained an $11 premium over U.S. long grain (No. 2, 4-percent broken, f.o.b. Gulf port) from early May through early August, the smallest since November 1995. The mid-August jump in Texas long grain prices reversed the premium, giving U.S. long grain an $11 premium over California medium grain. The long grain premium rose to $22 in mid-October with the drop in medium grain prices. When long grain prices dropped in late-October, the long grain premium returned to $11. The premium has been zero since late November when long grain prices fell to $430 per ton. The current lack of a price premium for U.S. medium grain rice has primarily been due to a larger medium grain crop in the U.S.--largely the result of increased plantings--and the delay in completion of Japan's 1996/97 GATT- required purchases until late 1996 or early 1997. Korea's purchase of its GATT-required rice from China in June was also a factor. South Korea had been expected to turn to the U.S. to meet its GATT commitments and/or replenish its stocks. Japan is expected to complete the remaining roughly 40 percent--over 200,000 tons--of its GATT-mandated purchases before the end of its 1996/97 fiscal year (April-March). Prices for lower quality rice have generally been falling for a year. Quotes for A.1 Special (100 percent broken, f.o.b. Bangkok) averaged $201 per ton in early December, down slightly from $206 and $208 in November and October, and $216 in September. Prices had been $240 in June and $260 in March. Ample supplies and little interest from importers account for the low prices. The late July and August drop in the high-quality international prices reduced the high-quality price premium--measured by the difference between Bangkok's f.o.b. price quotes for 100-percent grade B and for A.1 Special--to $133 in August--down from $141 in July. The premium further dropped to $126 in September and to $116 in October as high-quality rice prices were dropping faster than low-quality prices. The stabilization of the Thai 100-percent grade B price from late October through November, and only minor contraction since, has halted this decline--with the high-quality premium currently around $120 a ton. The high-quality price premium could again decline when Thailand's main crop becomes available for export. GLOBAL TRADE TO REMAIN STRONG IN 1996 and 1997 World production and consumption are projected to reach records in 1996/97, with each up over 1.6 percent from 1995/96. Production, forecast to reach 376.8 million tons (milled basis), will be slightly above consumption, forecast at 376.3 million (milled basis), raising ending stocks slightly from a year earlier 50.8 million tons. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 13.5 percent, slightly below last year's 13.6 and identical to 1994/95. These would be the three smallest stocks-to-use ratio's since 1974/75. Projected world production in 1996/97 is down 2.84 million tons (rough basis) from last month's forecast. The downward revision is primarily due to a 1.5-million-ton drop in India's projected crop to 121.5 million tons and an almost 1.2-million-ton drop in Brazil's crop forecast to 9.1 million tons. India's crop was revised down due to severe flooding that has cut yields from earlier expectations. Brazil's crop was revised down due to a drop in planted area, partly the result of difficulty acquiring farm credit. Vietnam's and Taiwan's crops were also revised downward this month. Vietnam's crop was trimmed .46 million tons to 26.5 million, due to a 4-percent drop in area, largely a result of severe flooding in November. Taiwan's crop was lowered nearly 8 percent from last month's forecast, to 1.9 million tons, due to a drought that cut planted area. On the upside, South Korea's crop was revised up nearly 5 percent from last month, to 7.2 million tons, on forecasts for higher average yields. And Australia's 1996/97 crop forecast was revised up over 9 percent--to 1.45 million tons--the result of revised area estimates from the Australian Government and yield revisions. China, India, Bangladesh, South Korea, and Indonesia are all expected to produce larger crops than last year, with India and Indonesia--both experiencing some crop loss due to flooding--forecast to produce record crops. Australia is also projected to produce a record 1996/97 crop of almost 1.5 million tons, up over 50 percent from 1995/96's drought-reduced crop. Forecasts for calendar 1996 trade were lowered to 18.8 million tons from 19.1 million (milled basis) last month and 2.1 million tons below 1995's record. The month-to-month revision was primarily due to a 140,000-ton drop in projected exports from Australia to 475,000 tons based on a 17-percent drop in the 1995/96 production forecast. Burma and Thailand's exports were also revised down from last month. U.S. exports were revised down 100,000 tons from last month on the basis of shipments to date. India accounts for the bulk of the 1995-to-1996 export decline, with shipments dropping from 4.2 to 3.25 million tons. Thailand's exports, projected at 5.2 million tons--are down from over 5.9 million in 1995. Thailand's Board of Trade reported exports of 4.69 million tons from January 1996 through November 26, almost 544,000 less than a year earlier. Burma is also projected to export less rice in 1996, dropping from 645,000 tons in 1995 to 300,000. Smaller supplies are primarily responsible for a 473,000-ton drop in U.S. rice exports in 1996 to 2.6 million tons. Australia, Egypt, and Pakistan also are projected to export less rice in 1996 than last year. On the upside, China's projected exports for 1996 are 300,000 tons--up substantially from just 32,000 last year. Argentina and Uruguay also are expected to export more rice than last year. On the import side, the month-to-month downward revision was primarily the result of a 200,000-ton decrease in both Brazil's and Bangladesh's 1996 imports, to 800,000 tons each based on sales to date. The Brazilian government is drawing its stocks down, reducing the need for imports. On the upside, Iran's imports were revised 200,000 tons higher to 1.4 million, and projections for Russia's and Malaysia's imports were each revised up 100,000 tons. Trade for 1997--projected at 18 million tons--was lowered 400,000 tons from last month's forecast and would be 840,000 below projections for this year's trade. However, trade in 1997 would still be the third highest ever, after 1995 and 1996. The decrease from last month's projection was largely due to a 750,000-ton drop in India's projected exports to 2.25 million tons. The large drop is due to India's lack of price competitiveness in low-quality markets compared with Vietnam. On the upside, Vietnam's exports were raised to 3 million tons. Projected exports for Uruguay and Argentina were revised up to match import projections for Brazil, and Australia's projected trade was increased 50,000 tons based on larger production projections. Greater imports in 1997 by Brazil, Indonesia, China, and Japan are projected to be more than offset by reduced imports by Bangladesh, the Philippines, Iran, and North Korea. Indonesia and Brazil are projected to be the largest importers, taking 1.5 million tons each, up from 1.25 million and 800,000 this year. A growing population and a loss of riceland on Java account for much of Indonesia's rising imports. A production drop of over 900,000 tons projected for 1996/97 accounts for Brazil's rising imports. China is projected to import 1 million tons, up from 850,000 this year. The increase will be entirely fragrant and high quality rices for urban consumers. Iraq is expected to import 500,000 tons of rice, nearly double this year's imports, largely due to the implementation of UN authorization of oil for food sales. Japan will import greater quantities of rice in 1997 than this year under the minimum access agreement of the GATT. Accounting for the bulk of the year-to-year drop in imports are Bangladesh, Iran, and the Philippines. Bangladesh's imports are projected to drop 300,000 tons from this year to 500,000, due primarily to a larger expected crop in 1996/97. Iran is projected to import 1.2 million tons, down 200,000 from this year but enough to maintain per capita consumption. The Philippines is projected to import 300,000 tons in 1997, down 600,000 from 1996. The drastic cut stems from large rice imports in the first part of 1996 that have caused ending stocks to rise substantially from 1994/95. Thailand, the world's largest exporter, is forecast to export 5.5 million tons in 1997, up 300,000 from this year, but below its 1989 record of 6 million. Vietnam is projected to rank number 2 in 1997, exporting 3 million tons, up 200,000 from last month's forecast but down 100,000 tons from this year. The U.S. is forecast to rank number 3, with exports of 2.3 million tons, down from 2.6 million in 1996. India, which has seen generally favorable monsoons since 1988, is projected to rank number 4, shipping 2.25 million tons--down 1 million tons from 1996--the result of lower prices from Vietnam for low-quality rice. U.S. SITUATION AND OUTLOOK FOR 1996/97 In December, USDA forecast the 1996 U.S. rice crop at 174 million cwt, unchanged from last month's forecast and nearly equal to 1995's crop. The 1996 yield--projected at 5,981 pounds per acre--would be up 6 percent from last year and exceed 1994's record by 17 pounds. The year-to-year yield increase is due to generally favorable weather and an acreage shift to California medium grain, which typically has 30- to 40-percent higher yields than either southern long or medium grain. Planted area is estimated at almost 2.94 million acres, down 6 percent from 1995. The decrease stemmed largely from the 1996 farm act that eliminated target prices and allowed producers tremendous planting flexibility. Also, prices for alternative crops were relatively high at planting time. August 1 stocks were estimated at 25 million cwt (rough-equivalent basis), down 20 percent from a year earlier and the lowest since 1991. Total supplies are projected to be 206.7 million cwt, 2.8 percent below 1995/96 due to the smaller carryin. Disappearance is projected down 3.5 percent from 1995/96 to 181.1 million cwt. Continued growth in domestic food uses will only partly offset an 8.3-million- cwt drop in exports. Projected ending stocks--at 25.6 million tons--are 2.4 percent greater than a year earlier, giving a 1996/97 stocks-to-use ratio of 14.1, up from 13.3 in 1995/96. Except for Missouri, field yields are records (or tied with records) in the four other southern rice producing States. In contrast, California has had problems with blanking--incomplete filling of the kernel--as well as with blast and weeds. The blanking is due to extremely high temperatures in late July and early August. And for the first time anyone can recall, blast (a disease that prevents seeds from maturing) has attacked some acreage in California--possibly due to the hot humid days followed by hot humid nights in August. The State's yield is projected at 7,400 pounds per acre, down from last year's 7,600 pounds and well below 1994's record 8,500. A breakdown of U.S. rice production by type indicates a 6-percent decrease in long grain production from 1995 to 114.5 million cwt. In contrast, medium and short grain production is projected to rise to 59.5 million cwt, up 14.2 percent from 1995. Long grain supplies are projected to drop almost 8 percent from a year earlier due to a 30-percent smaller carryin and a slightly weaker crop. A larger crop will allow medium and short grain supplies to rise 7.4 percent despite a near 10-percent reduction in carryin from last year. A 17-percent drop in exports is projected to raise 1996/97 long grain ending stocks 2 percent to 10.3 million cwt, yielding a long grain stocks-to-use ratio of 8.5 percent, above last year's 7.6. The short and medium grain scenario is less tight, with ending stocks projected to rise almost 3 percent to 14.7 million cwt. The ending stocks-to-use ratio is expected to drop slightly to 24.5 percent from 25.8 in 1995/96. U.S. rice exports and sales commitments are running just 2.5 percent behind last year's pace through the first 4 months of 1996/97, according to the U.S. Export Sales report of December 5, 1996. One month ago, U.S. exports were 17 percent behind a year earlier, but sales accelerated since early November. Primary destinations have been Japan, Turkey, Costa Rica and Saudi Arabia. For the week ending December 5, exports were 87,100 tons--a marketing year high-- over two and a half times the prior week and more than two times the 4-week average. Reduced U.S. long grain supplies and continued strong growth in domestic food use will support farm prices and help maintain the wide gap between U.S. high-quality long grain prices and those of Asian exporters. However, long grain rough rice exports to Latin America are likely to increase 12 percent, to 12 million cwt in 1996/97. U.S. medium grain exports are projected to increase nearly 16 percent as Japan is expected to step up imports prior to the end of its 1996/97 fiscal year to meet its GATT minimum access commitments, and as traditional U.S. medium grain importers, such as Turkey, continue importing U.S. rice. Note: Printed copies of the 1996 Rice Situation & Outlook Yearbook will be available in mid-December. To order, call 1-800-999-6779. ****************************************************************************** * INFORMATION CONTACTS AT THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE: * * Nathan Childs (202) 501-8513 * * * * Next month's Rice Outlook will be available on January 13, 1997. * ****************************************************************************** Note: Detailed 1996/97 foreign supply and use forecasts are published on December 16, in the Foreign Agricultural Service's GRAIN: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE. Tables: Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1990/91 to present Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1994/95 to present Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1994/95 to present Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1991/92 to present Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1990/91 to 1996/97. Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1990/91 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1995/96 1996/97 Item | 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 | 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== | | TOTAL RICE | Percent | | | ARP | 20 5 0 5 0 | 5 N/A | | Area | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.897 2.884 3.176 2.920 3.353 | 3.121 2.935 Harvested | 2.823 2.781 3.132 2.833 3.316 | 3.093 2.909 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 5,529 5,731 5,736 5,510 5,964 | 5,621 5,981 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 26.3 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 | 31.4 25.0 Production | 156.1 159.4 179.7 156.1 197.8 | 173.9 174.0 Imports | 4.8 5.3 6.1 6.9 7.0 | 7.4 7.8 Total supply | 187.2 189.2 213.2 202.5 230.6 | 212.7 206.7 | | Food | 63.7 67.1 69.0 71.2 74.0 | 77.0 80.0 Seed | 3.6 3.9 3.6 4.2 4.1 | 4.1 4.0 Brewers' use | 15.3 15.5 15.1 15.1 15.2 | 15.1 15.1 Residual 4/ | 9.0 8.9 9.0 11.0 5.0 | 9.3 8.0 Domestic use | 91.6 95.4 96.7 101.5 98.3 | 105.5 107.1 | | Exports | 71.0 66.4 77.0 75.2 100.9 | 82.3 74.0 Rough | 4.8 6.3 5.1 3.6 18.5 | 10.7 12.0 Milled 5/ | 66.2 60.1 71.9 71.5 82.4 | 71.6 62.0 Total use | 162.6 161.8 173.7 176.7 199.2 | 187.7 181.1 | | Ending | | stocks | 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.4 | 25.0 25.6 CCC stocks | 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 | 0.0 0.0 Free stocks | 24.5 27.0 39.3 25.8 31.3 | 25.0 25.6 | | | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 15.1 16.9 22.7 14.6 15.8 | 13.3 14.1 | | | $/cwt | 8.75 Average farm | | to price 6/ | 6.68 7.58 5.89 7.98 6.78 | 9.15 9.75 | | | Percent | Average | | milling rate | 72.0 70.5 70.0 74.0 73.0 | 72.0 72.0 ============================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Marketing year weighted average prices received. Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1994/95 to present ============================================================================= | 1996/97 1995/96 1994/95 | -------------------- ------------------- ------------------- Month | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================= | August | 9.92 10,522 7.64 9,935 6.87 11,534 September | 9.95 13,305 7.95 12,010 6.89 12,610 October | 9.54 11,806 8.77 12,493 6.47 13,381 November | 9.35 1/ 9.12 12,951 6.53 15,470 December | 9.36 12,503 6.56 17,479 January | 9.33 13,130 6.78 17,781 February | 9.10 11,898 6.71 16,050 March | 9.31 14,690 6.64 17,565 April | 9.34 13,562 6.70 12,425 May | 9.69 11,538 6.75 16,848 June | 9.74 9,500 7.03 13,793 July | 9.68 10,142 7.17 9,847 | Average 2/ | 9.69 11,878 9.15 12,029 6.78 14,565 | Total 3/ | 8.75-9.75 4/ 144,352 174,783 ============================================================================= 1/ Preliminary midmonth price estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1996/97 is for August to current month. 3/ Total volume marketed. 4/ 1996/97 price range is USDA projection. Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1994/95 to present 1/ ============================================================================ | 1996/97 1995/96 1994/95 Month | -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ============================================================================ | | $/cwt | August | 7.69 7.84 7.96 7.93 6.22 6.06 5.33 5.64 5.33 September | 7.56 7.81 7.93 8.02 6.30 6.13 5.62 5.67 5.36 October | 7.39 7.73 7.85 8.81 6.67 6.51 5.74 5.61 5.32 November | 7.09 7.58 7.70 8.47 6.82 6.63 5.85 5.59 5.31 December | 7.04 7.58 7.69 2/ 8.17 7.16 6.95 5.82 5.59 5.31 January | 8.11 7.19 7.13 6.21 5.62 5.58 February | 7.90 7.49 7.67 6.41 5.70 5.66 March | 7.97 7.38 7.55 6.41 5.74 5.70 April | 7.68 7.25 7.42 6.41 5.74 5.70 May | 7.38 7.17 7.35 6.56 5.87 5.82 June | 7.64 7.42 7.60 7.38 6.03 6.00 July | 7.79 7.82 8.01 7.63 6.10 6.06 | Average 3/| 7.36 7.71 7.83 2/ 7.99 7.07 7.08 6.28 5.74 5.59 ============================================================================ 1/ Loan rate basis (rough); repayment rates for 1989-94 crops are the higher of the world price or 70 percent of the loan rate for the specified class of rice. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1991/92 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | 1996/97|1995/96 | Country |--------|------- 1995/96| 1994/95 1993/94 1992/93 1991/92 or | as of | as of | region |12/05/96|12/05/95 Final| Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== 1,000 metric tons European Union | 221 | 173 452 | 503 362 362 263 Other Western Europe| 10 | 12 19 | 42 18 47 44 Turkey | 115 | 105 187 | 279 67 191 154 Eastern Europe | 4 | 29 34 | 63 10 46 39 Former Soviet Union | 17 | 11 37 | 19 4 15 42 | | | Japan | 126 | 142 192 | 2 568 0 0 | | | OTHER ASIA AND | | | THE MIDDLE EAST | 197 | 297 365 | 612 349 438 228 Iran | 0 | 93 72 | 262 121 130 7 Iraq | 0 | 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 Saudi Arabia | 104 | 84 144 | 165 157 205 146 | | | AFRICA | 126 | 183 346 | 307 258 315 244 Cote d'Ivoire | 27 | 87 82 | 77 67 92 56 Senegal | 0 | 15 5 | 43 75 87 37 Republic of | | | South Africa | 61 | 41 164 | 115 90 111 103 | | | WESTERN HEMISPHERE | 484 | 355 1,044 | 1,617 513 663 771 Canada | 74 | 61 116 | 139 91 98 88 Mexico | 137 | 81 320 | 332 177 249 118 Haiti | 41 | 64 121 | 153 43 117 97 Jamaica | 25 | 38 80 | 80 63 30 56 Brazil | 0 | 0 1 | 368 12 0 187 | | | Total | 1,299 | 1,332 2,678 | 3,426 2,149 2,075 1,783 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census Bureau 2/ |2,420 4/| 2,690 | 3,601 2,625 2,555 2,241 Difference 3/ | 320 5/| 12 | 175 476 480 458 ============================================================================== Note: the "U.S. Export Sales" reports sales and shipments in product weight. The milled equivalent total may vary significantly from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales" FAS, USDA. Columns labeled "as of" represent combined exports plus sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census Bureau rice export total (reported on a milled equivalent basis) is the official export total. 3/ The "U.S. Export Sales" report does not include U.S. Government exports under under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 4/ USDA forecast, milled equivalent. 5/ The average difference between the Census and the "U.S. Export Sales" for 1991/92-1995/96. Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present ============================================================================== | U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Month | ------------------------- ------------------------------------- or | Long Medium marketing | grain 3/ grain 4/ Parboiled 100% 5% par- 15% 35% A.1 6/ year 1/ | Houston Calif. Houston grade B boiled broken broken special ============================================================================== | | $/metric ton 7/ | 1986/87 | 240 282 311 190 171 173 154 122 1987/88 | 421 366 486 273 261 256 236 204 1988/89 | 324 361 386 292 284 275 256 232 1989/90 | 342 352 400 292 259 262 214 172 1990/91 | 331 347 400 296 277 261 213 169 1991/92 | 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 | 322 383 349 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 | 439 451 480 294 244 243 208 160 | Aug '94 | 313 428 353 259 271 237 222 200 Sep '94 | 309 397 344 267 265 246 233 210 Oct '94 | 304 397 331 272 262 249 238 216 Nov '94 | 298 397 331 272 263 249 236 215 Dec '94 | 298 397 331 270 259 250 237 222 Jan '95 | 298 366 331 282 264 265 252 232 Feb '95 | 298 358 342 289 266 270 255 226 Mar '95 | 298 353 342 292 269 272 253 222 Apr '95 | 298 353 342 290 269 271 254 226 May '95 | 311 353 346 299 274 279 262 239 Jun '95 | 358 353 380 333 305 314 297 276 Jul '95 | 392 353 406 353 341 335 321 297 | 1994/95 | 314 375 348 290 276 270 255 232 | Aug '95 | 386 364 419 346 343 327 310 288 Sep '95 | 386 380 424 368 354 346 322 285 Oct '95 | 430 432 485 393 373 372 340 293 Nov '95 | 441 441 463 354 342 334 315 296 Dec '95 | 419 496 463 347 337 326 307 278 Jan '96 | 410 507 454 372 355 350 321 271 Feb '96 | 402 474 449 377 357 348 307 256 Mar '96 | 397 463 441 373 350 344 301 260 Apr '96 | 406 459 454 342 316 310 272 245 May '96 | 430 441 471 347 318 312 272 244 Jun '96 | 430 441 474 360 339 322 275 240 Jul '96 | 430 441 474 370 347 335 281 229 | 1995/96 | 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 | Aug '96 | 446 441 491 346 330 314 265 213 Sep '96 | 452 441 478 341 331 311 264 216 Oct '96 | 449 433 474 324 330 293 250 208 Nov '96 | 438 430 463 325 327 293 248 206 Dec '96 8/| 430 430 463 322 322 289 245 201 | 1996/97 8/| 443 435 474 332 328 300 254 209 ============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. embassy, Bangkok. 6/ 100 percent broken. 7/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 8/ Preliminary. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1990/91 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1995/96 1996/97 Item | 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 | 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.129 2.113 2.408 2.102 2.410 | 2.335 Harvested | 2.065 2.023 2.372 2.028 2.379 | 2.312 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 5,221 5,395 5,397 5,082 5,609 | 5,265 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 13.2 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 | 14.5 10.1 Production | 107.8 109.1 128.0 103.1 133.4 | 121.7 114.5 Imports | 4.3 4.7 5.4 6.2 6.0 | 6.3 6.8 Total supply | 125.3 125.4 146.4 130.9 154.5 | 142.5 131.3 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 57.8 61.4 60.8 67.2 59.0 | 67.4 67.0 Exports | 56.0 51.0 64.0 48.6 81.0 | 65.0 54.0 Total use | 113.8 112.4 124.8 115.8 140.0 | 132.4 121.0 | | Ending stocks | 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.5 | 10.1 10.3 | | Stocks-to- | Percent | use ratio | 10.1 11.6 17.3 13.0 10.3 | 7.6 8.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN | | Million acres | | | Planted | 0.768 0.771 0.768 0.818 0.943 | 0.786 Harvested | 0.758 0.758 0.760 0.805 0.937 | 0.781 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 6,370 6,627 6,795 6,590 6,866 | 6,676 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 11.6 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 | 15.8 14.3 Production | 48.3 50.2 51.6 53.0 64.3 | 52.1 59.5 Imports | 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 | 1.2 1.0 Total supply | 60.5 62.4 64.8 70.9 74.9 | 69.6 74.8 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 33.8 34.1 35.9 34.3 39.2 | 38.1 40.1 Exports | 15.0 15.4 13.0 26.6 19.9 | 17.3 20.0 Total use | 48.8 49.5 48.9 60.9 59.1 | 55.3 60.1 | | Ending stocks | 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 | 14.3 14.7 | | Stocks-to- | Percent | use ratio | 24.0 26.1 32.4 16.4 26.8 | 25.8 24.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Ending stocks | | difference 1/ | 1.4 1.4 2.0 0.7 1.1 | 0.6 0.6 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the stock total for all types of rice in Table 1. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. END_OF_FILE