RICE OUTLOOK January 13, 1997 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. RCS-0197. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o The U.S. season-average farm price (SAFP) for 1996/97 is projected to be $9.00 to $10.00 per cwt, up 25 cents on both the high and low end from December's forecast. The increase is due to recent increases in international prices and continued high monthly U.S. farm prices. o The 1996 U.S. rice crop is pegged at 171.3 million cwt, down almost 1.6 percent from last month's projection due to a downward revision in area, and 1.5 percent below last year. This month's area, yield, and production data are from USDA's January 1997 Annual Crop Summary. o The 1996 yield is projected to be a record 6,121 pounds per acre, up 9 percent from last year's heat-stressed crop and 157 pounds greater than the 1994 record. o International rice prices, which had been in decline since July, have risen sharply since late December. The increase is largely because the Thai main season crop was delayed reaching the paddy market due to weather related difficulties and greater farmer holdings. Recent Iraqi purchases--as well as strong export landings in December--have also contributed to the recent price strength. NEAR-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: U.S. FARM PRICES REMAIN FIRM The 1996/97 (August/July) season average farm price (SAFP) is projected to be $9.00 to $10.00 per cwt, up 25 cents on both the high and low end from December's forecast, with the midpoint above 1995/96's season average price of $9.15. The SAFP is likely to remain firm as expectations of relatively strong export demand for high-quality long grain rice, steadily rising domestic food use, and continued tight U.S. supplies of long grain rice--partly because of farmers holding on to supplies--support U.S. rice prices. However, with exports accounting for around 40 percent of total disappearance, activities in the global rice market will continue to affect U.S. farm prices. U.S. farm level rice prices strengthened in May and remained strong through the first half of December. Last month, USDA estimated December's mid-month farm price at $9.24 per cwt and raised the November estimate to $9.53 from a preliminary $9.35. For the season average price to equal the midpoint of the forecast range, prices must average $9.40 per cwt for the remaining 7 months of the marketing year. Average monthly farm prices have exceeded $9.10 per cwt since November 1995. INTERNATIONAL PRICES SHOW RECENT STRENGTH International rice prices, which had declined sharply since late July, have recently strengthened, rising 13 percent between mid-December through the first week of January. Offer quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) rose from $322 a metric ton in mid-December to $364 by January 7. Prices had been as low as $315 in mid-October, but on October 24, Japan held a tender for 115,800 tons of rice--of which 35,800 were bought from Thailand--boosting Thai prices slightly. Japan's November 14 tender for 130,000 tons--of which Thailand received 30,000 tons--also boosted trading prices slightly. But prices soon fell back to the low $320's per ton. The recent price strength has primarily been due to delays in the Thai main harvest reaching the paddy market--a result of weather-related difficulties and greater farmer holdings--as well as recent Iraqi purchases and an increase in export landings in December compared with earlier months. Prices for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice--No. 2, 4-percent broken offer quotes out of Houston--have remained steady at $430 per ton since late November when they dropped $11 per ton, following a similar $11-drop in late October. The recent stability in price has been due to basically strong export sales in the late fall in the face of a fairly large U.S. harvest. Prices had averaged $430 a ton from early May through early August, but jumped to $452 in mid-August due to scarce supplies of high-quality U.S. rice available for either the domestic or export market. The Thai price has recently risen in the face of a steady U.S. price, lowering the U.S. premium over Thai rice to $66 per ton in early January, down from $100 in December and $113 in November. The premium had averaged $125 in October, prior to the drop in U.S. long grain export prices. This was the highest premium since $154 in June 1994. U.S. rice is thought to be competitive in world markets at a premium of $30-$40 over Thai rice. Prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, f.o.b.) have remained at $430 per ton since mid-October, down from $441 since late April. Prices had been $463 per ton prior to mid-April and were over $500 in January. Prices for California medium grain had maintained an $11 premium over U.S. long grain (No. 2, 4-percent broken, f.o.b. Gulf port) from early May through early August, the smallest since November 1995. The mid-August jump in Texas long grain prices reversed the premium, giving U.S. long grain an $11 premium over California medium grain. The long grain premium rose to $22 in mid-October with the drop in medium grain prices. When long grain prices dropped in late-October, the long grain premium returned to $11. The premium has been zero since late November when long grain prices fell to $430 per ton. The current lack of a price premium for U.S. medium grain rice has primarily been due to a larger medium grain crop in the U.S.--largely the result of increased plantings--and some delay in the completion of Japan's 1996/97 GATT- required purchases until early 1997. Korea's purchase of its GATT-required rice from China in June was also a factor. South Korea had been expected to turn to the U.S. to meet its GATT commitments and/or replenish its stocks. Japan is expected to complete the remaining roughly 20 percent--about 100,000 tons (brown rice basis)--of its GATT-mandated purchases before the end of its 1996/97 fiscal year (April-March). Prices for lower quality rice generally fell from late December 1995 through late December 1996, but have risen slightly since then due to some increased purchases by Asian importers. Quotes for A.1 Special (100 percent broken, f.o.b. Bangkok) were $212-$213 per ton in late December and early January, up from $201 in the first half of December and $206 for November. Prices had been $240 in June and $260 in March. Ample supplies and little interest from importers accounted for the drop in prices. The late July and August drop in the high-quality international prices reduced the high-quality price premium--measured by the difference between Bangkok's f.o.b. price quotes for 100-percent grade B and for A.1 Special--to $133 in August--down from $141 in July. The premium further dropped to $126 in September and to $116 in October as high-quality rice prices were dropping faster than low-quality prices. But the solid upturn in the Thai 100-percent grade B price since late December and only a minor increase in the A.1 Special price have halted this decline--with the high-quality premium currently around $150 a ton. GLOBAL TRADE TO REMAIN STRONG IN 1996 and 1997 World production and consumption are projected to reach records in 1996/97, with each up over 1.6 percent from 1995/96. Production, forecast to exceed 376.8 million tons (milled basis), will be slightly above consumption, forecast at almost 376.3 million (milled basis), raising ending stocks slightly from a year earlier 51.2 million tons. The 1996/97 stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 13.6 percent, roughly equal to the 2 previous years', and making these the three smallest stocks-to-use ratio's since 1974/75. Projected world production in 1996/97 is up just .10 million tons (rough basis) from last month's forecast. An increase in the Pakistani and Thai crops is almost offset by a drop in Vietnam's and the U.S.'s crop. Pakistan's crop was raised to 6.4 million tons (rough basis), up 12 percent from last month's projection due to a higher yield and area. The Thai crop forecast was raised over .30 million tons to 21.8 million due to higher yield estimates for the main crop. Vietnam's crop projection was lowered almost .76 million tons to 25.8 million, the result of lingering impacts of the fall flooding in the Mekong Delta River. The U.S. crop projection was lowered about 120,000 tons to nearly 7.8 million due to lowered area in the South and California. China, India, Bangladesh, South Korea, and Indonesia are all expected to produce noticeably larger crops than last year, with India and Indonesia--both experiencing some crop loss due to flooding--forecast to produce record crops. Australia is also projected to produce a record 1996/97 crop of almost 1.5 million tons, up over 50 percent from 1995/96's drought-reduced crop. Forecasts for calendar 1996 trade were raised slightly to 19 million tons from 18.8 million (milled basis) last month. Exports would still be almost 2 million tons below 1995's record. The month-to-month revision was primarily due to a 51,000-ton increase in Thailand's projected exports. Thailand finished the year with exports of 5.251 million tons. India accounts for the bulk of the 1995-to-1996 export decline, with shipments dropping from 4.2 to 3.25 million tons. Thailand's exports of 5.25 million tons are down from over 5.9 million in 1995. Burma is also projected to export less rice in 1996, dropping from 645,000 tons in 1995 to 265,000. Smaller supplies are primarily responsible for a 473,000-ton drop in U.S. rice exports in 1996 to 2.6 million tons. Australia, Egypt, and Pakistan also are projected to export less rice in 1996 than in 1995. On the upside, China's projected exports for 1996 are 300,000 tons--up substantially from just 32,000 in 1995. Argentina and Uruguay also are expected to export more rice than in 1995. On the import side, the month-to-month upward revision was primarily the result of a 200,000-ton increase in Senegal's imports to 750,000, with 200,000 tons expected to be transhipped to nearby East African markets. Mexico's import forecast was raised 15,000 tons to 315,000 tons based on the pace of shipments through October. Trade for 1997--projected at 18.2 million tons--was raised 200,000 tons from last month's forecast and would be 781,000 below projections for 1996. However, trade in 1997 would still be the third highest ever, after 1995 and 1996. The increase from last month's projection was largely due to a 350,000- ton increase in Pakistan's exports to 1.75 million tons due to a large increase in the production forecast. In addition, Australia's export projection was raised 100,000 tons to a record 800,00 tons based on an upward revision in the production estimate. On the downside, Vietnam's projected exports were dropped 250,000 tons from last month to 2.75 million due to the reduced production forecast. Greater imports in 1997 by Brazil, Indonesia, China, and Japan are projected to be more than offset by reduced imports by Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Iran. Indonesia and Brazil are projected to be the largest importers, taking 1.5 million tons each, up from 1.25 million and 800,000 this year. A growing population and a loss of riceland on Java account for much of Indonesia's rising imports. A production drop of more than 930,000 tons projected for 1996/97 accounts for Brazil's rising imports. China is projected to import 1 million tons, up from 850,000 in 1996. The increase will be entirely fragrant and high quality rices for urban consumers. Iraq is expected to import 500,000 tons of rice, nearly double 1996 imports, largely due to the implementation of UN authorization of oil for food sales. Japan will import greater quantities of rice in 1997 under the minimum access agreement of the GATT. Bangladesh, Iran, and the Philippines account for the bulk of the year-to-year drop in imports. Bangladesh's imports are projected to drop 300,000 tons from 1996 to 500,000, due primarily to a larger expected crop in 1996/97. Iran is projected to import 1.2 million tons, down 200,000 from 1996 but enough to maintain per capita consumption. The Philippines is projected to import 300,000 tons in 1997, down 600,000 from 1996. The drastic cut stems from large rice imports in the first part of 1996 that caused ending stocks to rise substantially from 1994/95. Thailand, the world's largest exporter, is forecast to export 5.5 million tons in 1997, up almost 250,000 from 1996, but below its 1989 record of 6 million. Vietnam is projected to rank number 2 in 1997, exporting 2.75 million tons, down 250,000 from last month's forecast and down 350,000 tons from 1996. The U.S. is forecast to rank number 3, with exports of 2.3 million tons, down from 2.6 million in 1996. India, which has seen generally favorable monsoons since 1988, is projected to rank number 4, shipping 2.25 million tons--down 1 million tons from 1996--the result of lower prices from Vietnam for low- quality rice. U.S. SITUATION AND OUTLOOK FOR 1996/97 In January, USDA forecast the 1996 U.S. rice crop at 171.3 million cwt, down almost 1.6 percent from both last month's forecast and 1995's heat-stressed crop. The month-to-month reduction is due to a 4-percent drop in planted area. Arkansas accounted for most of the drop, down 70,000 acres from December's projection. California's area was revised down 18,000 acres from last month, Mississippi's was lowered 10,000, and Missouri's was dropped 15,000. Planted area is estimated at almost 2.82 million acres, down nearly 10 percent from 1995. Arkansas accounted for the bulk of the area drop, posting a 170,000-acre decline. Mississippi reported the largest percentage drop in area, down almost 28 percent to 210,000 acres, followed by Missouri which saw planted area drop 23 percent 92,000 acres. Texas and Missouri reported area drops of 6-7 percent, to 535,000 and 300,000 acres. California, which grows mostly medium grain rice, was the only State to plant more rice in 1996, with area rising 35,000 acres to 502,000. The decrease stemmed largely from the 1996 farm act that eliminated target prices and allowed producers tremendous planting flexibility. Also, prices for alternative crops were relatively high at planting time. The decreases in planted area were the smallest in Texas and Louisiana--producing areas with no viable alternative crops that can be rotated with rice. In producing areas with viable alternative crops--soybeans and corn--farmers rotated to high- priced alternative crops as they would not lose contract payments for rotating out of rice. The 1996 yield--projected at a record 6,121 pounds per acre--would be up over 2 percent from last month's projection and 157 pounds above the prior record in 1994. The year-to-year yield increase--nearly 9 percent--is due to generally favorable weather and an acreage shift to California medium grain, which typically has 30- to 40-percent higher yields than either southern long or medium grain. August 1 stocks were estimated at 25 million cwt (rough-equivalent basis), down 20 percent from a year earlier and the lowest since 1991. Total supplies are projected to be 204.1 million cwt, 4 percent below 1995/96 due to the smaller carryin and smaller crop. Milling yields for 1994/95 and 1995/96 were revised slightly, resulting in some small revisions in supply and use. Disappearance is projected down 4.6 percent from 1995/96 to 178.8 million cwt. A 1.5 million-cwt growth in domestic food uses will only partly offset a 9- million-cwt drop in exports. While food use continues to show steady annual growth, the rate of growth has slowed to about 2 percent from 3 to 4 percent in recent years. Projected ending stocks--at 25.3 million tons--are just 1 percent greater than a year earlier, giving a 1996/97 stocks-to-use ratio of 14.1, up from 13.3 in 1995/96. Field yields are records in all five southern rice producing States, with Texas reporting the highest at 6,200 pounds per acre. In contrast, California has had problems with blanking--incomplete filling of the kernel--as well as with blast and weeds. The blanking is due to extremely high temperatures in late July and early August. And for the first time anyone can recall, blast (a disease that prevents seeds from maturing) has attacked some acreage in California--possibly due to the hot humid days followed by hot humid nights in August. The State's yield is projected at 7,490 pounds per acre, down from 1996's 7,600 pounds and well below 1994's record 8,500. A breakdown of U.S. rice production by type indicates a 6.8-percent decrease in long grain production from 1995 to 113.5 million cwt. In contrast, medium and short grain production is projected to rise to 57.9 million cwt, up almost 11 percent from 1995. Long grain supplies are projected to drop almost 8.5 percent from a year earlier due to a 30-percent smaller carryin and a weaker crop. A larger crop will allow medium and short grain supplies to rise over 5 percent despite an almost 10-percent reduction in carryin from a year earlier. A 16-percent drop in exports is projected to raise 1996/97 long grain ending stocks 2 percent to 10.3 million cwt, yielding a long grain stocks-to-use ratio of 8.6 percent, above last year's 7.6. The short and medium grain scenario is less tight, with ending stocks projected to remain unchanged at 14.3 million cwt. The ending stocks-to-use ratio is expected to drop slightly to 24.3 percent from 25.9 in 1995/96. U.S. rice exports and sales commitments are running just 1.6 percent behind last year's pace through the first 5 months of 1996/97, according to the U.S. Export Sales report of January 9, 1997. Two months ago, U.S. exports were 17 percent behind a year earlier, but sales accelerated since early November. Primary destinations have been Japan, Turkey, Costa Rica, Mexico, the EU, and Saudi Arabia. Reduced U.S. long grain supplies and continued strong growth in domestic food use will support farm prices and help maintain the wide gap between U.S. high- quality long grain prices and those of Asian exporters. However, long grain rough rice exports to Latin America are likely to increase 11 percent, to 12 million cwt in 1996/97. U.S. medium grain exports are projected to increase nearly 9 percent as Japan meets its 1996/97 GATT minimum access commitments, and as traditional U.S. medium grain importers, such as Turkey, continue importing U.S. rice. Note: Printed copies of the 1996 Rice Situation & Outlook Yearbook are available. To order, call 1-800-999-6779. ****************************************************************************** * INFORMATION CONTACTS AT THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE: * * Nathan Childs (202) 501-8513 * * * * Next month's Rice Outlook will be available on February 13, 1997. * ****************************************************************************** Note: Detailed 1996/97 foreign supply and use forecasts are published on January 14, in the Foreign Agricultural Service's Grain: World Markets and Trade. Tables: Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1990/91 to present Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1994/95 to present Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1994/95 to present Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1991/92 to present Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1990/91 to 1996/97 Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1990/91 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1995/96 1996/97 Item | 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 | 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== | | TOTAL RICE | Percent | | | ARP | 20 5 0 5 0 | 5 N/A | | Area | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.897 2.884 3.176 2.920 3.353 | 3.121 2.819 Harvested | 2.823 2.781 3.132 2.833 3.316 | 3.093 2.799 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 5,529 5,731 5,736 5,510 5,964 | 5,621 6,121 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 26.3 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 | 31.3 25.0 Production | 156.1 159.4 179.7 156.1 197.8 | 173.9 171.3 Imports | 4.8 5.3 6.1 6.9 7.0 | 7.4 7.8 Total supply | 187.2 189.3 213.2 202.5 230.6 | 212.6 204.1 | | Food | 63.7 67.1 69.0 71.2 74.0 | 77.0 78.5 Seed | 3.6 4.1 3.8 4.3 4.1 | 3.8 3.7 Brewers' use | 15.3 15.5 15.1 14.3 14.5 | 15.2 15.1 Residual 4/ | 9.0 8.8 8.8 11.7 7.4 | 8.5 7.5 Domestic use | 91.6 95.5 96.7 101.5 99.9 | 104.5 104.8 | | Exports | 71.0 66.4 77.0 75.2 99.4 | 83.0 74.0 Rough | 4.8 6.3 5.1 3.6 18.2 | 10.8 12.0 Milled 5/ | 66.2 60.1 71.9 71.5 81.2 | 72.2 62.0 Total use | 162.6 161.8 173.7 176.7 199.3 | 187.6 178.8 | | Ending | | stocks | 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.3 | 25.0 25.3 CCC stocks | 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 | 0.0 0.0 Free stocks | 24.5 27.0 39.3 25.8 31.2 | 25.0 25.3 | | | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 15.1 16.9 22.7 14.6 15.7 | 13.3 14.1 | | | $/cwt | 9.00 Average farm | | to price 6/ | 6.68 7.58 5.89 7.98 6.78 | 9.15 10.00 | | | Percent | Average | | milling rate | 72.0 70.5 70.0 74.0 74.1 | 71.4 72.0 ============================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Estimated. 3/ Projected. 4/ Unreported use, processing losses and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Marketing year weighted average prices received. Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1994/95 to present ============================================================================= | 1996/97 1995/96 1994/95 | -------------------- ------------------- ------------------- Month | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================= | August | 9.92 10,522 7.64 9,935 6.87 11,534 September | 9.95 13,305 7.95 12,010 6.89 12,610 October | 9.54 11,806 8.77 12,493 6.47 13,381 November | 9.35 12,346 9.12 12,951 6.53 15,470 December | 9.24 11,995 1/ 9.36 12,503 6.56 17,479 January | 9.33 13,130 6.78 17,781 February | 9.10 11,898 6.71 16,050 March | 9.31 14,690 6.64 17,565 April | 9.34 13,562 6.70 12,425 May | 9.69 11,538 6.75 16,848 June | 9.74 9,500 7.03 13,793 July | 9.68 10,142 7.17 9,847 | Average 2/ | 9.64 11,995 9.15 12,029 6.78 14,565 | Total 3/ | 9.00-10.00 4/ 144,352 174,783 ============================================================================= 1/ Preliminary midmonth price estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1996/97 is for August to current month. 3/ Total volume marketed. 4/ 1996/97 price range is USDA projection. Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1994/95 to present 1/ ============================================================================ | 1996/97 1995/96 1994/95 Month | -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ============================================================================ | $/cwt | August | 7.69 7.84 7.96 7.93 6.22 6.06 5.33 5.64 5.33 September | 7.56 7.81 7.93 8.02 6.30 6.13 5.62 5.67 5.36 October | 7.39 7.73 7.85 8.81 6.67 6.51 5.74 5.61 5.32 November | 7.09 7.58 7.70 8.47 6.82 6.63 5.85 5.59 5.31 December | 7.15 7.63 7.74 8.17 7.16 6.95 5.82 5.59 5.31 January | 7.36 7.68 7.79 2/ 8.11 7.19 7.13 6.21 5.62 5.58 February | 7.90 7.49 7.67 6.41 5.70 5.66 March | 7.97 7.38 7.55 6.41 5.74 5.70 April | 7.68 7.25 7.42 6.41 5.74 5.70 May | 7.38 7.17 7.35 6.56 5.87 5.82 June | 7.64 7.42 7.60 7.38 6.03 6.00 July | 7.79 7.82 8.01 7.63 6.10 6.06 | Average 3/| 7.37 7.71 7.83 2/ 7.99 7.07 7.08 6.28 5.74 5.59 ============================================================================ 1/ Loan rate basis (rough); repayment rates for 1989-94 crops are the higher of the world price or 70 percent of the loan rate for the specified class of rice. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1991/92 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | 1996/97| 1995/96 | Country |--------| ------- 1995/96| 1994/95 1993/94 1992/9 1991/92 or | as of | as of | region |01/09/97| 01/09/97 Final| Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== 1,000 metric tons European Union | 239 | 211 452 | 503 362 362 263 Other Western Europe| 10 | 13 19 | 42 18 47 44 Turkey | 132 | 123 187 | 279 67 191 154 Eastern Europe | 4 | 32 34 | 63 10 46 39 Former Soviet Union | 18 | 13 37 | 19 4 15 42 | | | Japan | 177 | 213 192 | 2 568 0 0 | | | OTHER ASIA AND | | | THE MIDDLE EAST | 202 | 301 365 | 612 349 438 228 Iran | 0 | 93 72 | 262 121 130 7 Iraq | 0 | 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 Saudi Arabia | 107 | 87 144 | 165 157 205 146 | | | AFRICA | 132 | 212 346 | 307 258 315 244 Cote d'Ivoire | 27 | 88 82 | 77 67 92 56 Republic of | | | South Africa | 65 | 53 164 | 115 90 111 103 | | | WESTERN HEMISPHERE | 557 | 375 1,044 | 1,617 513 663 771 Canada | 79 | 63 116 | 139 91 98 88 Mexico | 157 | 95 320 | 332 177 249 118 Haiti | 46 | 64 121 | 153 43 117 97 Jamaica | 26 | 38 80 | 80 63 30 56 Brazil | 0 | 0 1 | 368 12 0 187 | | | Total | 1,471 | 1,495 2,678 | 3,426 2,149 2,075 1,783 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census Bureau 2/ |2,420 4/| 2,690 | 3,601 2,625 2,555 2,241 Difference 3/ | 318 5/| 12 | 175 476 480 458 ============================================================================== Note: the "U.S. Export Sales" reports sales and shipments in product weight. The milled equivalent total may vary significantly from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales," FAS, USDA. Columns labeled "as of" represent combined exports plus sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census Bureau rice export total (reported on a milled equivalent basis) is the official export total. 3/ The "U.S. Export Sales" report does not include U.S. Government exports under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 4/ USDA forecast, milled equivalent. 5/ The average difference between the Census and the "Export Sales" for 1991/92-1995/96. Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present ============================================================================== | U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Month | ------------------------- ------------------------------------- or | Long Medium marketing | grain 3/ grain 4/ Parboiled 100% 5% par- 15% 35% A.1 6/ year 1/ | Houston Calif. Houston grade B boiled broken broken special ============================================================================== | | $/metric ton 7/ | 1986/87 | 240 282 311 190 171 173 154 122 1987/88 | 421 366 486 273 261 256 236 204 1988/89 | 324 361 386 292 284 275 256 232 1989/90 | 342 352 400 292 259 262 214 172 1990/91 | 331 347 400 296 277 261 213 169 1991/92 | 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 | 322 383 349 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 | 439 451 480 294 244 243 208 160 | Aug '94 | 313 428 353 259 271 237 222 200 Sep '94 | 309 397 344 267 265 246 233 210 Oct '94 | 304 397 331 272 262 249 238 216 Nov '94 | 298 397 331 272 263 249 236 215 Dec '94 | 298 397 331 270 259 250 237 222 Jan '95 | 298 366 331 282 264 265 252 232 Feb '95 | 298 358 342 289 266 270 255 226 Mar '95 | 298 353 342 292 269 272 253 222 Apr '95 | 298 353 342 290 269 271 254 226 May '95 | 311 353 346 299 274 279 262 239 Jun '95 | 358 353 380 333 305 314 297 276 Jul '95 | 392 353 406 353 341 335 321 297 | 1994/95 | 314 375 348 290 276 270 255 232 | Aug '95 | 386 364 419 346 343 327 310 288 Sep '95 | 386 380 424 368 354 346 322 285 Oct '95 | 430 432 485 393 373 372 340 293 Nov '95 | 441 441 463 354 342 334 315 296 Dec '95 | 419 496 463 347 337 326 307 278 Jan '96 | 410 507 454 372 355 350 321 271 Feb '96 | 402 474 449 377 357 348 307 256 Mar '96 | 397 463 441 373 350 344 301 260 Apr '96 | 406 459 454 342 316 310 272 245 May '96 | 430 441 471 347 318 312 272 244 Jun '96 | 430 441 474 360 339 322 275 240 Jul '96 | 430 441 474 370 347 335 281 229 | 1995/96 | 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 | Aug '96 | 446 441 491 346 330 314 265 213 Sep '96 | 452 441 478 341 331 311 264 216 Oct '96 | 449 433 474 324 330 293 250 208 Nov '96 | 438 430 463 325 327 293 248 206 Dec '96 | 430 430 463 330 325 298 253 205 Jan '97 8/| 430 430 463 364 336 327 276 213 | 1996/97 8/| 441 434 472 338 330 306 259 210 ============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. embassy, Bangkok. 6/ 100 percent broken. 7/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 8/ Preliminary. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1990/91 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1995/96 1996/97 Item | 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 | 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== LONG-GRAIN | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.129 2.113 2.408 2.102 2.410 | 2.335 1.980 Harvested | 2.065 2.023 2.372 2.028 2.379 | 2.312 1.964 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 5,221 5,395 5,397 5,082 5,609 | 5,265 5777 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 13.2 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 | 14.4 10.1 Production | 107.8 109.1 128.0 103.1 133.4 | 121.7 113.5 Imports | 4.3 4.7 5.4 6.2 6.0 | 6.3 6.8 Total supply | 125.3 125.4 146.4 130.9 154.5 | 142.4 130.3 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 57.8 61.4 60.8 67.2 60.3 | 66.7 65.0 Exports | 56.0 51.0 64.0 48.6 79.8 | 65.6 55.0 Total use | 113.8 112.4 124.8 115.8 140.1 | 132.3 120.0 | | Ending stocks | 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.4 | 10.1 10.3 | | Stocks-to- | Percent | use ratio | 10.1 11.6 17.3 13.0 10.3 | 7.6 8.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN | | Million acres | | | Planted | 0.768 0.771 0.768 0.818 0.943 | 0.786 .839 Harvested | 0.758 0.758 0.760 0.805 0.937 | 0.781 .835 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 6,370 6,627 6,795 6,590 6,866 | 6,676 6,929 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 11.6 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 | 15.8 14.3 Production | 48.3 50.2 51.6 53.0 64.3 | 52.1 57.9 Imports | 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 | 1.2 1.0 Total supply | 60.5 62.4 64.8 70.9 75.0 | 69.5 73.2 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 33.8 34.1 35.9 34.3 39.6 | 37.8 39.8 Exports | 15.0 15.4 13.0 26.6 19.6 | 17.4 19.0 Total use | 48.8 49.5 48.9 60.9 59.2 | 55.3 58.8 | | Ending stocks | 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 | 14.3 14.3 | | Stocks-to- | Percent | use ratio | 24.0 26.1 32.4 16.4 26.7 | 25.9 24.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Ending stocks | | difference 1/ | 1.4 1.4 2.0 0.7 1.1 | 0.6 0.6 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the stock total for all types of rice in Table 1. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. END_OF_FILE