RICE OUTLOOK March 12, 1997 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RICE OUTLOOK is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. RCS--0397 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o The U.S. season average farm price (SAFP) for 1996/97 is projected to be $9.50 to $10.00 per cwt, up 20 cents on the low end from February's forecast. The increase is due to strong international prices for high- quality U.S. long grain rice and continued high monthly U.S. farm prices. o Projected 1996/97 global rice production was revised down 2.4 million tons (milled basis) from last month to 374.9 million, with Burma, India, and Thailand--all major rice exporters--accounting for most of the decrease. o Projected 1997 global exports were revised downward nearly 3.9 percent from last month, to around 17.4 million tons, 8.3 percent below last year. Taking the biggest cuts were Thailand and India, each dropping 500,000 tons. o The 1996 U.S. rice crop is pegged at 171.3 million cwt, unchanged from last month's projection but nearly 1.5 percent below the 1995 crop. The 1996 yield is a record 6,121 pounds per acre. o International prices for most grades of rice have slipped since early February as the pace of new sales has slowed. However, fragrant rice prices have risen to record levels in response to a weak Thai first crop. NEAR-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: U.S. FARM PRICES REMAIN FIRM The 1996/97 (August/July) season average farm price (SAFP) is projected to be $9.50 to $10.00 per cwt, up 20 cents on the low end from February's forecast, with the midpoint 60 cents above 1995/96's season average price of $9.15. The SAFP is likely to remain firm as expectations of relatively strong export demand for high-quality long grain rice, steadily rising domestic food use, and continued tight U.S. supplies of long grain rice support U.S. rice prices. However, with exports accounting for around 40 percent of total disappearance, activities in the global rice market will continue to affect U.S. farm prices. U.S. farm level rice prices strengthened in May 1996 and remained strong through the first half of February. Last month, USDA estimated February's midmonth farm price at $9.65 per cwt and raised the January estimate to $9.87 from a preliminary $9.65. For the season average price to equal the midpoint of the forecast range, prices must average $9.75 per cwt for the remaining 5 months of the marketing year. Average monthly farm prices have exceeded $9.35 per cwt since May 1996. INTERNATIONAL PRICES CONTINUE TO SLIP AS IMPORT DEMAND WEAKENS Except for fragrant rice, international prices for most grades of rice continue to slip as import demand weakens. Offer quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) which rose from $322 a ton in mid-December to $369 by the end of January, dropped to $354 by March 4 and were down to $350 by March 11. The December-January price strength was primarily due to delays in the Thai main harvest reaching the paddy market--a result of weather-related difficulties and greater farmer holdings. Iraqi purchases and increased export landings in December compared with earlier months also strengthened prices. The drop in trading prices since early February is due primarily to the Thai main crop entering the world market and a general weakening in import demand. Also, both Thailand and Vietnam will harvest off-season crops starting in late March or April, limiting the possibility of any price increase this spring. Nonetheless, market fundamentals--primarily strong demand for limited supplies of exportable high-quality long grain rice--still support projections for strong international prices for the remainder of the 1996/97 market year. In contrast to the Thai price, prices for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice--No. 2, 4-percent broken offer quotes f.o.b. Houston--have increased since the second half of January, climbing $11 a ton to $441 by January 20, rising again in early February to $452 and to $463 by February 18. The recent price increases are due to generally strong U.S. export sales in January and February and extremely tight supplies of U.S. long grain rice. The recent drop in the Thai price and a steadily rising U.S. price increased the U.S. premium over Thai rice to $111 per ton by March 11, up from $96 in February and $68 in January. The premium had averaged $125 in October, prior to a drop in U.S. long grain export prices that month. This was the highest premium since $154 in June 1994. The premium declined to $113 in November when the U.S. price again dropped and declined to $100 in December with the rapid rise in Thai prices. U.S. rice is thought to be competitive in world markets at a premium of $30-$40 over Thai rice. Prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, f.o.b.) dropped $11 a ton to $397 for the week ending February 10, following an $11-drop in mid-January from $430 and have remained at $397 per ton through March 10. Prices had been $430 a ton since mid-October--when they declined from $441. Prices were $463 per ton in mid-April 1996 and over $500 in January 1996. The recent declines in prices for California medium grain rice are primarily because the U.S. medium grain crop is up from a year earlier--largely the result of increased plantings. Also, there has been little export activity beyond Japan's minimum access purchases and earlier sales to Turkey of which most were rough rice. Japan's minimum access purchases are scheduled to increase in 1997/98 (April-March) to 531,000 metric tons (brown rice basis), likely adding strength to California medium grain export prices. Prices for California medium grain had maintained an $11 price differential over U.S. long grain (No. 2, 4-percent broken, f.o.b. Gulf port) from early May through early August 1996, the smallest since November 1995. The mid-August jump in Texas long grain prices reversed the differential, giving U.S. long grain an $11 price differential over California medium grain. The long grain differential rose to $22 in mid-October with the drop in medium grain prices. When long grain prices dropped in late October, the long grain price differential returned to $11. The differential was zero from late November-- when long grain prices fell to $430 per ton--through mid-January. The three recent increases in long grain rice prices--combined with drops in medium grain prices--pushed the differential to $66 by March 10, the largest long grain price differential since February 1994. In contrast to international prices for higher-quality grades of rice, prices for lower quality rice have generally increased since late December due to increased purchases by some Asian importers, partly a response to short supplies of high-quality long grain rice. Quotes for A.1 Special (100 percent broken, f.o.b. Bangkok) were $231 per ton on March 11, down just $1 from a week earlier but up from $226 in February and $218 in January. Prices were $201 in early December and below $210 per ton in October and November. The recent drop in high-quality international prices in the face of rising low-quality prices has reduced the high-quality price premium--measured by the difference between Bangkok's f.o.b. price quotes for 100-percent grade B and for A.1 Special--from $149 in January to $133 in February and $119 by March 11. The premium had been $116 in October when high-quality rice prices were dropping faster than low-quality prices. But the solid upturn in the Thai 100-percent grade B price in late December and January, and only a minor increase in the A.1 Special price, halted this decline--with the premium at $138 a ton in December. GLOBAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION PROJECTED TO BE RECORDS World rice production and consumption are projected to reach record highs in 1996/97, with production up 1.1 percent and use up over 1.6 percent from 1995/96. Production, forecast to reach almost 374.9 million tons (milled basis), will be slightly below consumption, forecast at 375.9 million (milled basis), lowering ending stocks 2 percent from a year earlier to nearly 49.4 million tons. The 1996/97 stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 13.1 percent, down from the roughly 13.5-to-13.6 achieved the 2 previous years, giving 1996/97 the lowest stocks-to-use ratio since 1974/75. Projected world production in 1996/97 is down almost 2.4 million tons (milled basis) from last month's forecast. Substantially lower projections for crops in Myanmar, India, and Thailand, as well as smaller decreases for crops in Colombia and Malaysia, more than compensate for larger crop projections for the Philippines, Uruguay, the EU, and Australia. Myanmar's crop projection was lowered to 9.3 million tons (milled basis), down 1.14 million from last month due to lower yields--a result of weather, pests, and less input use. India's crop forecast was lowered 1 million tons to 80 million entirely due to a drop in yield as area posted a small increase. Thailand's crop was lowered 500,000 tons to 13.9 million tons due to lower yields on the main crop, a result of flooding in the Central Plains, drought in the Northeast--where fragrant rice is grown--and excessive rain at flowering across many growing areas. Malaysia's crop was revised down 10,000 tons to 1.32 million, based on a drop in area. A 20,000-hectare-drop in area pulled Colombia's projected crop down 60,000 tons to 1.14 million. The Philippines' 1996/97 crop was revised up 200,000 tons from last month to 7.5 million (milled basis), due to higher yield and area forecasts. Uruguay's crop was revised up 110,000 tons to 630,000, also due to higher yield and area projections. Australia's production forecast was raised 10,000 tons to 1.05 million tons based on an ABARE report projecting higher yields. Finally, the EU's Annual Report increased the crop forecast 2,000 tons from last month--a result of a 6,000-ton increase in Italy's crop forecast to 856,000 outweighing a 4,000-ton drop in French production to 71,000. China, Indonesia, Bangladesh, India, South Korea, Egypt, Australia, the EU, Pakistan, and the Philippines are all expected to produce noticeably larger crops than last year. Bangladesh and Indonesia--both major rice producers--are forecast to harvest record crops with paddy production in each country up over 1 million tons from 1995/96. The Philippines is projected to produce a record paddy crop as well, with production up 364,000 tons, or 3.3 percent from 1995/97. Two relatively small producers--the EU and Australia--are also projected to produce record crops in 1996/97, with the EU's crop projected at 2.5 million tons (rough basis)--up 26 percent from a year earlier--and Australia's crop projected at almost 1.5 million tons (rough basis), up over 50 percent from last season's drought-reduced crop. In contrast, crops in Myanmar, Brazil, Vietnam, Thailand, and Japan are projected to show noticeable decreases from 1995/96. Paddy output in Myanmar is projected down more than 1.2 million tons, and Brazil and Vietnam are projected to harvest paddy crops more than 900,000 tons below 1995/96. GLOBAL TRADE TO DROP IN 1997 Projections for 1996 trade were dropped just 4,000 tons from last month to 19 million tons. This would make 1996 trade the second largest ever, but still be almost 2 million tons below the 1995 record. The month-to-month export revision was primarily due to a 50,000-ton decrease in Senegal's exports to 700,000 tons, based on port arrival data. Trade for 1997--projected at over 17.4 million tons--was lowered 700,000 tons from last month's forecast and would be almost 1.6 million tons below estimates for 1996. However, trade in 1997 would still be the third highest ever. The drop from last month's projected exports was largely due to a 500,000-ton decrease in India's exports to 1.5 million tons--stemming from a 1-million-ton (milled basis) drop in production. Also lowering the export forecast was a 500,000-ton drop in Thailand's projected exports to 5 million tons based on weak sales in March, a slower pace of shipments in January and February, and a 500,000-ton drop in forecast production. Finally Myanmar's export forecast was lowered 350,000 tons to 150,000 due to a 1.14-million-ton drop in production. These downward revisions were partially offset by a 500,000 ton increase in China's exports to 750,000 based on sales to date, a 75,000-ton increase in Uruguay's projected exports to 550,000 tons based on improved crop prospects, and a 75,000-ton increase in Egypt's exports to 150,000 tons due to expectations of a 19-percent larger crop than last year. On the import side, Indonesia's imports were revised down 500,000 tons from last month to 1 million tons due to the lifting of restrictions on old import contracts with Vietnam and Thailand that diminished the need to make import contracts in the fall 1997. China's imports were revised down from 1 million tons to 800,000 due to smaller estimates for the 1996/97 Thai fragrant rice crop. Projected imports for Nigeria were revised downward 200,000 tons to 550,000 due to lower availability of Thai and Indian parboiled rice as well as higher trading prices. Iran's projected imports were lowered 200,000 tons from last month to 1 million due to decreasing availability of high-quality rice from Thailand and a large domestic crop in 1996/97. North Korea's projected imports were lowered 150,000 tons to 250,000--a result of no import activity as of yet this year. Projections for Cuba's imports were revised downward 50,000 tons to 350,000 due to lower availability, a weaker economy, and substantial imports in December. These downward revisions were partially offset by several upward revisions. The Philippines' projected imports were raised to 700,000 tons from 300,000 last month based on the level of bookings to date--including options for additional shipments--plus the expected level of U.S. PL 480 shipments. Sri Lanka's import projections were raised 50,000 tons to 100,000 based on shipments from India to date. Greater imports in 1997 by Iraq, Brazil, Japan, Nigeria, and Mexico are projected to more than offset reduced imports by Bangladesh, Iran, Senegal, Indonesia, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, North Korea, the Republic of South Africa, and Malaysia. A production drop of more than 630,000 tons (milled) projected for 1996/97 accounts for Brazil's 400,000-ton rise in imports to 1.2 million--making Brazil the largest importer in 1997. Iran and Indonesia tie for second place, each taking 1 million tons. A growing population and a loss of riceland on Java account for Indonesia's substantial import needs. Iraq is expected to import 750,000 tons of rice, triple 1996 imports, following the UN authorization of oil for food sales. Japan will import more rice in 1997 than last year under the minimum access agreement of the GATT. Bangladesh, Iran, Senegal, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and the Philippines account for the bulk of the year-to-year drop in imports. Bangladesh's imports are projected to drop 700,000 tons from 1996, due primarily to a larger crop. Iran's projected imports are down 400,000 from 1996 but enough to maintain per capita consumption. Senegal's imports are projected to be down 300,000 tons from 1996. Some of 1996's imports were for transshipment to west African countries. Indonesia's imports are projected down 250,000 tons from 1996. The Philippines' projected imports are down 200,000 tons from 1996. The cut stems from large rice imports in the first part of 1996 that caused ending stocks to rise substantially from 1994/95. Sri Lanka's imports are projected to be 100,000 tons, down from 1996's 300,000. Sri Lanka suspended its import tariff in 1996 to increase imports in the face of a weak crop but terminated the suspension in early 1997. Thailand, the world's largest rice exporter, is forecast to export 5 million tons in 1997, down 250,000 from 1996. Vietnam is projected to rank number 2, exporting 2.75 million tons, down 350,000 tons from 1996. The U.S. is forecast to rank number 3, with exports of 2.3 million tons, down from more than 2.6 million in 1996. Pakistan--ranking number 4--is projected to export 1.65 million tons in 1997, slightly below 1996. India is projected to rank number 5, shipping 1.5 million tons--down 1.75 million tons from 1996--the result of lower prices from Vietnam for low-quality rice. U.S. SITUATION AND OUTLOOK FOR 1996/97 The 1996 U.S. rice crop is estimated at 171.3 million cwt, down almost 1.5 percent from 1995's heat-stressed crop. Area and yield were unchanged from last month. Planted area is estimated at almost 2.82 million acres, down nearly 10 percent from 1995. The 1996 yield--projected at a record 6,121 pounds per acre--would be up nearly 9 percent from 1995 and 157 pounds above the prior record in 1994. The year-to-year yield increase is due to generally favorable weather and an acreage shift to California medium grain, which typically has 30- to 40-percent higher yields than either southern long or medium grain. Total supply is revised up .6 percent from last month to 205.4 million cwt due to a 1.25-million-cwt increase in projected imports to 9 million--all long grain. Total supply remains more than 3 percent below 1995/96. Disappearance is projected at 180.8 million cwt, up .5 percent from last month's projection--due to a 1-million-cwt increase in projected exports to 76 million cwt--all long grain. Total disappearance is still projected 3.6 percent below 1995/96. A 1.5-million-cwt growth in domestic food uses will only partly offset a 7-million-cwt drop in exports. Projected ending stocks --at almost 24.6 million tons--are down 1.9 percent from a year earlier, giving a 1996/97 stocks-to-use ratio of almost 13.6, up from 13.3 in 1995/96. A breakdown of U.S. rice production by type indicates a 6.8-percent decrease in long grain production from 1995 to 113.5 million cwt. In contrast, medium and short grain production is projected to rise to 57.9 million cwt, up almost 11 percent from 1995. Long grain supplies are projected to drop 7.6 percent from a year earlier due to a 30-percent smaller carryin and a weaker crop. A larger crop will allow medium and short grain supplies to rise over 5 percent despite an almost 9.5-percent reduction in carryin from a year earlier. Long grain exports are projected to be 57 million cwt, 1 million above last month's projection but 13.1 percent below 1995/96. Long grain ending stocks are projected to drop 5.3 percent to 9.6 million cwt, yielding a long grain stocks-to-use ratio of 7.9 percent, up slightly from last year's 7.6. The short and medium grain scenario is less tight, with ending stocks projected to remain virtually unchanged from 1995/96 at around 14.3 million cwt. The ending stocks-to-use ratio is expected to drop to 24.4 percent from 25.9. U.S. rice exports and sales commitments are running less than 2 percent behind last year's pace through the first 7 months of 1996/97, according to the U.S. Export Sales report of March 6, 1997. Four months ago, U.S. exports were almost 17 percent behind a year earlier, but sales were generally strong from December through February. Primary destinations have been the EU, Mexico, Japan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Canada, and Haiti. Note: Printed copies of the 1996 Rice Yearbook are available. To order, call 1-800-999-6779. ****************************************************************************** * INFORMATION CONTACT AT THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE: * * Nathan Childs (202) 501-8513 * * Next month's Rice Outlook will be available on April 14, 1997. * ****************************************************************************** Note: Detailed 1996/97 foreign supply and use forecasts are published on March 13, in the Foreign Agricultural Service's Grain: World Markets and Trade. Tables: Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1990/91 to present Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1994/95 to present Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1994/95 to present Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1991/92 to present Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1990/91 to 1996/97 Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1990/91 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1995/96 1996/97 Item | 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 | 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== | | TOTAL RICE | Percent | | | ARP | 20 5 0 5 0 | 5 N/A | | Area | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.897 2.884 3.176 2.920 3.353 | 3.121 2.819 Harvested | 2.823 2.781 3.132 2.833 3.316 | 3.093 2.799 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 5,529 5,731 5,736 5,510 5,964 | 5,621 6,121 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 26.3 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 | 31.3 25.0 Production | 156.1 159.4 179.7 156.1 197.8 | 173.9 171.3 Imports | 4.8 5.3 6.1 6.9 7.0 | 7.4 9.0 Total supply| 187.2 189.3 213.2 202.5 230.6 | 212.6 205.4 | | Food | 63.7 67.1 69.0 71.2 74.0 | 77.0 78.5 Seed | 3.6 4.1 3.8 4.3 4.1 | 3.7 3.8 Brewer's use | 15.3 15.4 15.1 14.3 14.5 | 15.6 15.4 Residual 4/ | 9.0 8.8 8.8 11.7 7.4 | 8.3 7.1 Domestic use| 91.6 95.5 96.7 101.5 99.9 | 104.5 104.8 | | Exports | 71.0 66.4 77.0 75.2 99.4 | 83.0 76.0 Rough | 4.8 6.3 5.1 3.6 18.2 | 10.8 12.0 Milled 5/ | 66.2 60.1 71.9 71.5 81.2 | 72.2 64.0 Total use | 162.6 161.9 173.7 176.7 199.3 | 187.6 180.8 | | End. stocks | 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.3 | 25.0 24.6 CCC inv. | 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 | 0.0 0.0 Free stocks | 24.5 27.0 39.3 25.8 31.2 | 25.0 24.6 | | | Percent | | | Stocks-use | 15.1 16.9 22.7 14.6 15.7 | 13.3 13.6 | | | $/cwt | 9.50 Average farm | | to price 6/ | 6.68 7.58 5.89 7.98 6.78 | 9.15 10.00 | | | Percent | Average | | milling rate | 72.0 70.5 70.0 74.0 74.1 | 71.4 72.0 ============================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled ice. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Marketing year weighted average price received by farmers. Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1994/95 to present ============================================================================= | 1996/97 1995/96 1994/95 | -------------------- ------------------- ------------------- Month | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================= | August | 9.99 10,520 7.64 9,935 6.87 11,534 September | 9.95 13,478 7.95 12,010 6.89 12,610 October | 9.75 11,988 8.77 12,493 6.47 13,381 November | 9.36 11,768 9.12 12,951 6.53 15,470 December | 9.63 12,758 9.36 12,503 6.56 17,479 January | 9.87 15,927 9.33 13,130 6.78 17,781 February | 9.65 12,740 1/ 9.10 11,898 6.71 16,050 March | 9.31 14,690 6.64 17,565 April | 9.34 13,562 6.70 12,425 May | 9.69 11,538 6.75 16,848 June | 9.74 9,500 7.03 13,793 July | 9.68 10,142 7.17 9,847 | Average 2/ | 9.74 12,740 9.15 12,029 6.78 14,565 | Total 3/ | 9.50-10.00 4/ 144,352 174,783 ============================================================================= 1/ Preliminary midmonth price estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1996/97 is for August to current month. 3/ Total volume marketed. 4/ 1996/97 price range is USDA projection. Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1994/95 to present 1/ ============================================================================ | 1996/97 1995/96 1994/95 Month | -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ============================================================================ | | $/cwt | August | 7.69 7.84 7.96 7.93 6.22 6.06 5.33 5.64 5.33 September | 7.56 7.81 7.93 8.02 6.30 6.13 5.62 5.67 5.36 October | 7.39 7.73 7.85 8.81 6.67 6.51 5.74 5.61 5.32 November | 7.09 7.58 7.70 8.47 6.82 6.63 5.85 5.59 5.31 December | 7.15 7.63 7.74 8.17 7.16 6.95 5.82 5.59 5.31 January | 7.41 7.65 7.78 8.11 7.19 7.13 6.21 5.62 5.58 February | 7.47 7.57 7.75 7.90 7.49 7.67 6.41 5.70 5.66 March | 7.34 7.56 7.74 2/ 7.97 7.38 7.55 6.41 5.74 5.70 April | 7.68 7.25 7.42 6.41 5.74 5.70 May | 7.38 7.17 7.35 6.56 5.87 5.82 June | 7.64 7.42 7.60 7.38 6.03 6.00 July | 7.79 7.82 8.01 7.63 6.10 6.06 | Average 3/| 7.49 7.67 7.81 2/ 7.99 7.07 7.08 6.28 5.74 5.59 ============================================================================ 1/ Loan rate basis (rough); the repayment rate was the lower of the loan level for the crop or the higher of the prevailing world market price or the minimum repayment level. For the 1989 through 1995 crops, the minimum loan repayment levels were 70 percent of the loan level. The minimum loan repayment level has been eliminated for 1996-crop loans and loans are repayable at the lower of the loan level or the prevailing world price. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1991/92 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | 1996/97| 1995/96 | Country |--------|-------- 1995/96|1994/95 1993/94 1992/93 1991/92 or | as of | as of | region |02/27/97|02/27/96 Final| Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== 1,000 metric tons European Union | 317 | 278 452 | 503 362 362 263 Other Western Europe| 13 | 15 19 | 42 18 47 44 Turkey | 142 | 130 187 | 279 67 191 154 Eastern Europe | 4 | 31 34 | 63 10 46 39 Former Soviet Union | 21 | 16 37 | 19 4 15 42 | | | Japan | 222 | 191 192 | 2 568 0 0 | | | OTHER ASIA AND | | | THE MIDDLE EAST | 232 | 326 365 | 612 349 438 228 Iran | 0 | 72 72 | 262 121 130 7 Iraq | 0 | 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 Saudi Arabia | 133 | 128 144 | 165 157 205 146 | | | AFRICA | 177 | 262 346 | 307 258 315 244 Cote d'Ivoire | 27 | 88 82 | 77 67 92 56 Republic of | | | South Africa | 102 | 85 164 | 115 90 111 103 | | | WESTERN HEMISPHERE | 704 | 611 1,044 | 1,617 513 663 771 Canada | 97 | 78 116 | 139 91 98 88 Mexico | 244 | 164 318 | 327 177 249 118 Haiti | 53 | 86 121 | 153 43 117 97 Jamaica | 25 | 59 80 | 80 63 30 56 Costa Rica | 38 | 71 110 | 65 46 18 49 | | | Total | 1,831 | 1,861 2,678 | 3,426 2,149 2,075 1,783 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | | Census Bureau 2/ |2,480 4/| 2,690 | 3,601 2,625 2,555 2,241 Difference 3/ | 318 5/| 12 | 175 476 480 458 ============================================================================== Note: the "U.S. Export Sales" reports sales and shipments in product weight. The milled equivalent total may vary significantly from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales," FAS, USDA. Columns labeled "as of" represent combined exports plus sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census Bureau rice export total (reported on a milled equivalent basis) is the official export total. 3/ The "U.S. Export Sales" report does not include U.S. Government exports under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 4/ USDA forecast, milled equivalent. 5/ The average difference between the Census and the "U.S. Export Sales" for 1991/92-1995/96. Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present ============================================================================== | U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Month | ------------------------- ------------------------------------- or | Long Medium marketing | grain 3/ grain 4/ Parboiled 100% 5% par- 15% 35% A.1 6/ year 1/ | Houston Calif. Houston grade B boiled broken broken special ============================================================================== | | $/metric ton 7/ | 1986/87 | 240 282 311 190 171 173 154 122 1987/88 | 421 366 486 273 261 256 236 204 1988/89 | 324 361 386 292 284 275 256 232 1989/90 | 342 352 400 292 259 262 214 172 1990/91 | 331 347 400 296 277 261 213 169 1991/92 | 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 | 322 383 349 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 | 439 451 480 294 244 243 208 160 | Aug '94 | 313 428 353 259 271 237 222 200 Sep '94 | 309 397 344 267 265 246 233 210 Oct '94 | 304 397 331 272 262 249 238 216 Nov '94 | 298 397 331 272 263 249 236 215 Dec '94 | 298 397 331 270 259 250 237 222 Jan '95 | 298 366 331 282 264 265 252 232 Feb '95 | 298 358 342 289 266 270 255 226 Mar '95 | 298 353 342 292 269 272 253 222 Apr '95 | 298 353 342 290 269 271 254 226 May '95 | 311 353 346 299 274 279 262 239 Jun '95 | 358 353 380 333 305 314 297 276 Jul '95 | 392 353 406 353 341 335 321 297 | 1994/95 | 314 375 348 290 276 270 255 232 | Aug '95 | 386 364 419 346 343 327 310 288 Sep '95 | 386 380 424 368 354 346 322 285 Oct '95 | 430 432 485 393 373 372 340 293 Nov '95 | 441 441 463 354 342 334 315 296 Dec '95 | 419 496 463 347 337 326 307 278 Jan '96 | 410 507 454 372 355 350 321 271 Feb '96 | 402 474 449 377 357 348 307 256 Mar '96 | 397 463 441 373 350 344 301 260 Apr '96 | 406 459 454 342 316 310 272 245 May '96 | 430 441 471 347 318 312 272 244 Jun '96 | 430 441 474 360 339 322 275 240 Jul '96 | 430 441 474 370 347 335 281 229 | 1995/96 | 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 | Aug '96 | 446 441 491 346 330 314 265 213 Sep '96 | 452 441 478 341 331 311 264 216 Oct '96 | 449 433 474 324 330 293 250 208 Nov '96 | 438 430 463 325 327 293 248 206 Dec '96 | 430 430 463 330 325 298 253 205 Jan '97 | 435 424 474 367 334 332 277 218 Feb '97 | 455 402 485 359 321 320 270 226 Mar' 97 8/| 463 397 485 352 318 309 264 232 | 1996/97 8/| 446 425 477 343 327 309 261 215 ============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. embassy, Bangkok. 6/ 100 percent broken. 7/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 8/ Preliminary. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1990/91 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1995/96 1996/97 Item | 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 | 2/ 3/ ==============================================================================LONG-GRAIN | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.129 2.113 2.408 2.102 2.410 | 2.335 1.980 Harvested | 2.065 2.023 2.372 2.028 2.379 | 2.312 1.964 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 5,221 5,395 5,397 5,082 5,609 | 5,265 5777 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 13.2 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 | 14.4 10.1 Production | 107.8 109.1 128.0 103.1 133.4 | 121.7 113.5 Imports | 4.3 4.7 5.4 6.2 6.0 | 6.3 8.0 Total supply | 125.3 125.4 146.4 130.9 154.5 | 142.4 131.6 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 57.8 61.4 60.8 67.2 60.3 | 66.7 65.0 Exports | 56.0 51.0 64.0 48.6 79.8 | 65.6 57.0 Total use | 113.8 112.4 124.8 115.8 140.1 | 132.3 122.0 | | Ending stocks | 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.4 | 10.1 9.6 | | | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 10.1 11.6 17.3 13.0 10.3 | 7.6 7.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN | | Million acres | | | Planted | 0.768 0.771 0.768 0.818 0.943 | 0.786 .839 Harvested | 0.758 0.758 0.760 0.805 0.937 | 0.781 .835 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 6,370 6,627 6,795 6,590 6,866 | 6,676 6,929 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 11.6 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 | 15.8 14.3 Production | 48.3 50.2 51.6 53.0 64.3 | 52.1 57.9 Imports | 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 | 1.2 1.0 Total supply | 60.5 62.4 64.8 70.9 75.0 | 69.5 73.2 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 33.8 34.1 35.9 34.3 39.6 | 37.8 39.8 Exports | 15.0 15.4 13.0 26.6 19.6 | 17.4 19.0 Total use | 48.8 49.5 48.9 60.9 59.2 | 55.3 58.8 | | Ending stocks | 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 | 14.3 14.4 | | | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 24.0 26.1 32.4 16.4 26.7 | 25.9 24.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------Ending stocks | | difference 1/ | 1.4 1.4 2.0 0.7 1.1 | 0.6 0.6 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the stock total for all types of rice in Table 1. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. END_OF_FILE