RICE OUTLOOK April 14, 1997 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RICE OUTLOOK is published monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. RCS-0497. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o The U.S. season average farm price for 1996/97 is projected to be $9.75 to $10.15 per cwt, up 25 cents on the low end and up 15 cents on the high end from the March forecast. The increase is due to strong international prices for U.S. long grain rice and continued high monthly U.S. farm prices. o USDA's Prospective Plantings reports that as of March 1, U.S. rice producers intend to plant 2.88 million acres, up 2 percent from last year, with long grain acreage rising 4 percent and medium grain plantings down 4 percent. o U.S. 1996/97 rice imports are projected at a record 10.5-million cwt, up 1.5 million from last month's projection and up over 3 million from 1995/96. o Projected 1996/97 global rice production was revised up over 2 million tons (milled basis) from last month to 376.9 million--a record, with China accounting for the bulk of the increase. o The steady decline in international prices for most grades of rice--which began in early February--continued into mid-April. A large Thai second crop entering the market and weak import demand are behind the recent drop. NEAR-TERM PRICE OUTLOOK: U.S. FARM PRICES CONTINUE STRONG The 1996/97 (August/July) season average farm price (SAFP) is projected to be $9.75 to $10.15 per cwt, up 25 cents on the low end and up 15 cents on the high end from the March forecast, with the midpoint 80 cents above 1995/96's season average price of $9.15. If realized, the 1996/97 SAFP would be the highest since 1980/81. The SAFP is likely to remain firm as expectations of relatively strong export demand for high-quality U.S. long grain rice, steadily rising domestic food use, and continued tight U.S. supplies of long grain rice support U.S. rice prices. U.S. farm level rice prices strengthened in May 1996 and remained strong through the first half of March. Last month, USDA estimated March's midmonth farm price at $10.20 per cwt and raised the February estimate to $10.10 from a preliminary $9.65. For the season average price to equal the midpoint of the forecast range, prices must average $10.13 per cwt for the remaining 4 months of the marketing year. INTERNATIONAL PRICES CONTINUE TO FALL International prices for most grades of rice continue to fall. Offer quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) fell to $315 per ton by April 8, down from $317 a week earlier and down from March's average of $341. The grade B price, which had been $369 at the end of January, dropped to $359 by the end of February and to $323 by March 25. The recent drop in price is due to the Thai second crop reaching market channels, the harvesting of a large winter-spring crop in Vietnam, and continued weak import demand across most of Asia--primarily the result of strong 1996/97 harvests in many Asian countries. Nonetheless, strong demand for limited supplies of exportable high-quality long grain rice will limit the price drop. In contrast to the Thai price, prices for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice--No. 2, 4-percent broken, offer quotes f.o.b. Houston--have remained at $463 per ton since mid-February--after rising 3 times since mid-January when they were $430. The increases were due to generally strong U.S. export sales and extremely tight supplies of U.S. long grain rice. The recent drop in the Thai price, combined with a steady U.S. price, increased the U.S. premium over Thai rice to $147 per ton by April 8--the highest since $154 in June 1994--and up from March's $122. The premium had been $96 in February and $68 in January. A few years ago, U.S. rice had been viewed as competitive in world markets with a premium of $30-$40 over Thai rice. However, in recent years this level has likely risen due to some shifting of the U.S. export market to the Western Hemisphere and limited supplies of high-quality long grain rice worldwide. Prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, f.o.b.) have remained at $397 a ton since mid-February after dropping from $419 a ton in early February and from $430 in mid-January. Prices for high-quality California medium grain rice have steadily declined since early 1996 when they were over $500 a ton. The recent declines in price for California medium grain rice are primarily due to an 11-percent increase in the 1996 U.S. medium grain crop from a year earlier--largely the result of increased plantings. Also, there has not been much export activity beyond Japan's minimum access purchases--which were completed in January--and sales to regular medium grain buyers, such as Turkey which has purchased mostly rough rice. Jordan did purchase 15,000 tons of milled Calrose rice in late March. Japan's minimum access purchases are scheduled to increase in 1997/98 (April-March) to 531,000 metric tons (brown rice basis), likely adding strength to California medium grain export prices. Prices for California medium grain had maintained an $11 price differential over U.S. long grain (No. 2, 4-percent broken, f.o.b. Gulf port) from early May through early August 1996, the smallest since November 1995. A mid-August jump in Texas long grain prices reversed the differential, giving U.S. long grain an $11 price differential over California medium grain. The long grain differential rose to $22 in mid-October with a drop in medium grain prices. When long grain prices dropped in late October, the long grain price differential returned to $11. The differential was zero from late November--when long grain prices fell to $430 per ton--through mid-January. The three recent increases in long grain prices--combined with drops in medium grain prices--pushed the differential to $66 by mid-February where it has remained, the largest long grain price differential since February 1994. In contrast to international prices for higher quality grades of rice, prices for lower quality rice increased from late December through March, although prices for low quality rice have recently dropped. The winter increase in low quality prices was due to increased purchases by some Asian importers, partly a response to short supplies of high-quality long grain rice. Quotes for A.1 Special (100 percent broken, f.o.b. Bangkok) were $233 per ton on April 1, up from averages of $226 in February, $218 in January, and $205 in December. The drop in high-quality international prices in the face of rising low-quality prices reduced the high-quality price premium--measured by the difference between Bangkok's f.o.b. price quotes for 100-percent grade B and for A.1 Special--from $149 in January, to $133 in February, to $110 in March, and to $89 by early April--even with the recent drop in low quality prices. GLOBAL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION PROJECTED TO BE RECORDS World rice production and consumption are projected to reach record highs in 1996/97, with production up over 1.4 percent and use up 1.5 percent from 1995/96. Production, forecast to reach 376.9 million tons (milled basis), will be slightly above consumption, forecast at 376 million (milled basis), raising ending stocks 1.7 percent from a year earlier to nearly 51.3 million tons. The 1996/97 stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 13.6 percent, about the same as the roughly 13.5-to-13.6 achieved the 2 previous years, giving these 3 years the lowest stocks-to-use ratios since 1974/75. Projected world production in 1996/97 is up 2 million tons (milled basis) from last month's forecast. Accounting for most of the increase is a 1.7-million ton increase in China's projected crop to 133.7 million tons (milled basis) based on State Statistical Bureau estimates for total 1996 grain output. Also, Egypt's projected output was raised .55 million tons from last month to over 3 million due to a revision in area. Crop projections for several other countries were increased from last month, based on end-of-year reports, they are: Mexico, Bolivia, Ghana, Zaire, Burkina, Benin, Togo, Ecuador, Angola, Malawi, Taiwan, Sierra Leone, and Madagascar. In contrast to these upward revisions, Iran's projected crop was reduced 300,000 tons from last month to 1.6 million--a result of lower area and yield. A drought dropped Tanzania's forecast 155,000 tons to 400,000. Both Sri Lanka's and Iraq's projected crops were lowered 50,000 tons to 1.55 million and 200,000 due to drops in area. And while Taiwan's projected paddy crop was lowered 158,000 tons to 1.8 million based on an area drop, the country's milled output was actually raised slightly. Crop projections for several other countries were lowered based on end of year reports, they are: Cote d'Ivoire, Senegal, Gambia, Guyana, Turkey, Venezuela, Honduras, and Guatemala. China, Indonesia, Bangladesh, India, South Korea, Australia, the European Union, Pakistan, and the Philippines are all expected to produce noticeably larger crops than last year, with several projected to harvest record crops. China's record crop would be up over 3 percent from 1995/96, the result of higher yields. Bangladesh and Indonesia--both major rice producers--are forecast to harvest record crops of 27.8 million and 51.5 million tons (rough basis). Paddy crops in both countries are projected up over 1 million tons from 1995/96. The Philippines is projected to produce a record 11.5-million- ton paddy crop, with production up 364,000 tons, or 3.3 percent from 1995/97. Two relatively small producers--the EU and Australia--are also projected to produce record crops in 1996/97, with the EU's crop projected at 2.5 million tons--up 26 percent from a year earlier--and Australia's crop projected at 1.5 million tons, up over 50 percent from last season's drought-reduced crop. In contrast, crops in Myanmar, Brazil, Vietnam, Thailand, and Japan are projected to show noticeable decreases from 1995/96. Paddy output in Myanmar is projected down more than 1.2 million tons from 1995/96 to 16 million, and Brazil and Vietnam are projected to harvest paddy crops of 9.1 million and 25.8 million tons, each more than 900,000 tons below 1995/96. GLOBAL TRADE TO DROP IN 1997 Estimates for 1996 trade were raised 325,000 tons from last month to 19.3 million. This would make 1996 trade the second largest ever, but still be almost 1.7 million tons below the 1995 record. The month-to-month export revision was primarily due to a 250,000-ton increase in India's exports to 3.5 million tons, based on shipment data through November. In addition, Thailand's projected exports were raised 29,000 tons to 5.28 million based on Thai government data that included aid shipments to Laos and Cambodia. Uruguay's exports raised 46,000 tons to 596,000 and Argentina's lowered 30,000 tons to 365,000. Both revisions were based on shipment data. On the import side, Canada's 1996 imports were revised up 5,000 tons to 215,000 and Bangladesh's imports were lowered 100,000 tons to 700,000. Both month-to-month import revisions were based on end-of-year trade data. Trade for 1997--projected at almost 17.7 million tons--was raised 235,000 tons from last month's forecast, but would be 1.66 million tons below estimates for 1996. However, trade in 1997 would still be the third highest ever. The increase from last month's projected exports was primarily due to a 100,000- ton increase in U.S. exports to 2.4 million tons--based on the pace of shipments to date. In addition, Uruguay's exports were raised 50,000 tons to 600,000 tons--a result of heavy demand from Brazil, strong 1996 exports, and a solid crop. On the import side, Sri Lanka's imports were raised 50,000 tons to 150,000 based on heavy shipments in January and February. Greater imports in 1997 by Iraq, Brazil, Japan, Nigeria, and Mexico are projected to be more than offset by reduced imports by Bangladesh, Iran, Senegal, Indonesia, the Philippines, the EU, North Korea, the Republic of South Africa, Sri Lanka, Turkey, and Malaysia. A production drop of more than 630,000 tons (milled) projected for 1996/97 accounts for Brazil's 400,000 ton rise in imports to 1.2 million--making Brazil the largest importer in 1997. Iran and Indonesia tie for second place, each taking 1 million tons. A growing population and a loss of rice land on Java account for Indonesia's substantial import needs. Iraq is expected to import 750,000 tons of rice, triple 1996 imports, following the United Nation authorization of oil for food sales. Japan--projected to import 600,000 tons--will import more rice in 1997 than last year under the minimum access agreement of the GATT. Mexico and Nigeria are projected to post modest increases in imports from last year. Bangladesh, Iran, Senegal, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and the Philippines account for the bulk of the year-to-year import drop. Bangladesh's imports are projected to drop 600,000 tons from 1996, due primarily to a larger crop. Iran's projected imports are down 400,000 from 1996 but enough to maintain per capita consumption. Senegal's imports are projected to be 400,000 tons, down 300,000 from 1996. Some of 1996's imports were for transshipment to west African countries. Indonesia's imports are projected down 250,000 tons from 1996, a result of a larger crop. The Philippines is projected to import 700,000 tons, down 200,000 from 1996. The cut stems from large rice imports in early 1996 that caused ending stocks to rise substantially from 1994/95. Sri Lanka's imports are projected to be 150,000 tons, down from 1996's 300,000. Sri Lanka suspended its import tariff in 1996 to increase imports in the face of a weak crop but terminated the suspension in early 1997. Thailand, the world's largest rice exporter, is forecast to export 5 million tons in 1997, down 280,000 from 1996. Vietnam is projected to rank number 2, exporting 2.75 million tons, down 350,000 tons from 1996. The United States is forecast to rank number 3, with exports of 2.4 million tons, down from more than 2.6 million in 1996. Pakistan--ranking number 4--is projected to export 1.65 million tons in 1997, slightly below 1996. India is projected to rank number 5, shipping 1.5 million tons--down 1.75 million tons from 1996--the result of lower prices from Vietnam for low-quality rice. U.S. PLANTING INTENTIONS FOR 1997 USDA's March Prospective Plantings reports U.S. rice producers intend to plant 2.88 million acres in 1997, up 2 percent from 1996, with long grain plantings indicated up 4 percent and medium grain down 4 percent. High prices and extremely tight supplies account for the intended increase in plantings. The report was a survey of farmers' planting intentions as of March 1. Producers in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas each indicated they intend to plant more rice than last year. Mississippi producers indicated the highest total and percentage area increase, up 40,000 acres or 19 percent from 1996 to 250,000. Mississippi grows only long grain rice. The second largest increase is reported for Louisiana, which produces long and medium grain rice, with total rice area up 35,000 acres--all long grain--or 7 percent to 570,000. Producers in Arkansas intend to plant 1.2 million acres in 1997, 2 percent more than in 1996; 10,000 more long grain and 10,000 more medium grain acres. California, which grows predominantly medium grain rice, is expected to plant 480,000 acres in 1997, down 22,000 or 4 percent from 1996, with medium grain down 28,000 acres and long and short grain posting small increases. Declining prices for California milled rice, rising stocks, and flood damage are behind the intended drop in California acreage. Producers in Texas, which grows almost exclusively long grain rice, indicated they would plant 290,000 acres in 1997, a 10,000-acre drop from 1996. Texas is a relatively high cost rice producing State. Producers in Missouri--which grows long grain rice--indicated they would plant 90,000 acres, down 2,000 from last year. Nationwide, producers indicated they would plant 31,000 fewer acres to medium grain rice, with California accounting for most of the drop. Producers in Louisiana indicated they would plant 10,000 fewer acres to medium grain in 1997. In contrast, intended long grain plantings are up 87,000 acres, a response to high prices for U.S. long grain rice, increasing exports of long grain rough rice, and an extremely small stocks-to-use ratio projected for 1996/97. Louisiana accounts for over half the long grain increase. Too much rain has severely delayed seeding in Texas, typically the first State to plant and harvest rice. In addition, rain in the Delta is hindering field work, possibly delaying planting which typically occurs April 20 to May 10 in Arkansas. Late seeded rice can reduce yields. By the end of the first week of April, just 2 percent of Texas acreage had been planted, compared with an average of 29 percent. More rain fell along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast and the Delta last weekend, further delaying planting and hindering field preparations. Both of these regions experienced abnormally cold weather last weekend as well, impeding progress of planted rice. Texas producers can normally get a ratoon crop harvested if planting occurs by April 10; but a second crop is hard to produce from late seeded rice. And many Texas producers are dependent on the ratoon crop for adequate returns. In addition, the delay in planting in Texas means that no new crop rice will likely be available for domestic or export markets until after July; a critical factor given the extremely low projected long grain ending stocks. The 1996 U.S. rice crop is estimated at 171.3 million cwt, down almost 1.5 percent from 1995's heat-stressed crop. Area and yield were unchanged from last month. Total supply is revised up .7 percent from last month to 206.9 million cwt due to a 1.5-million-cwt increase in projected imports to a record 10.5 million--all long grain--based on the pace of imports through January. However, total supply remains nearly 3 percent below 1995/96. Disappearance is projected at 182.7 million cwt, up 1 percent from last month's projection--due to a 2-million-cwt increase in projected exports to 78 million cwt--with long grain accounting for all the increase. Total disappearance is projected 2.6 percent below 1995/96. A 1.5-million-cwt growth in domestic food use will only partly offset a 5-million-cwt drop in exports. Ending stocks--projected at almost 24.2 million tons--are down 1.6 percent from last month's forecast and 3.5 percent from a year earlier, giving a 1996/97 stocks-to-use ratio of 13.2 percent, just below 13.3 in 1995/96. Long grain supplies are projected to drop 6.6 percent from a year earlier due to a 30-percent smaller carryin and a weaker crop. A larger crop will allow medium and short grain supplies to rise more than 5.2 percent despite an almost 9.5-percent reduction in carryin from a year earlier. Long grain exports are projected to be 60 million cwt, 3 million above last month's projection but 8.5 percent below 1995/96. Long grain ending stocks are projected to drop more than 10 percent to 9.1 million cwt, yielding a long grain stocks-to-use ratio of 7.3 percent, slightly below last year's 7.6. The short and medium grain scenario is less tight, with ending stocks projected to be almost 14.5 million cwt, up slightly from 1995/96. The ending stocks-to-use ratio is expected to drop to 24.6 percent from 25.9 in 1995/96. U.S. rice exports and sales commitments are running a little over 1 percent behind last year's pace through the first 8 months of 1996/97, according to the U.S. Export Sales report of April 10, 1997. Five months ago, U.S. exports were almost 17 percent behind a year earlier, but sales have generally been strong since December. Primary destinations have been the EU, Mexico, Japan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Haiti, Colombia, South Africa, and Jordan. Note: Printed copies of the 1996 Rice Yearbook are available. To order, call 1-800-999-6779 and ask for stock # RCS-1977. ***************************************************************** * INFORMATION CONTACT AT THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE: * * Nathan Childs (202) 501-8513 * * * * Next month's Rice Outlook will be available on May 13, 1997. * ***************************************************************** Note: Detailed 1996/97 foreign supply and use forecasts are published on April 15, in the Foreign Agricultural Service's Grain: World Markets and Trade. Tables: Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1990/91 to present Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1994/95 to present Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1994/95 to present Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1991/92 to present Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1990/91 to present Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1990/91 to present 1/ =============================================================================== | | | | | | 1995/96 |1996/97 Item | 1990/91 | 1991/92 |1992/93 |1993/94 | 1994/95 | 2/ | 3/ =============================================================================== | | TOTAL RICE | Percent | | | ARP | 20 5 0 5 0 | 5 N/A | | Area | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.897 2.884 3.176 2.920 3.353 | 3.121 2.819 Harvested | 2.823 2.781 3.132 2.833 3.316 | 3.093 2.799 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 5,529 5,731 5,736 5,510 5,964 | 5,621 6,121 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 26.3 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 | 31.3 25.0 Production | 156.1 159.4 179.7 156.1 197.8 | 173.9 171.3 Imports | 4.8 5.3 6.1 6.9 7.0 | 7.4 10.5 Total supply| 187.2 189.3 213.2 202.5 230.6 | 212.6 206.9 | | Food | 63.7 67.1 69.0 71.2 74.0 | 77.0 78.5 Seed | 3.6 4.1 3.8 4.3 4.1 | 3.7 3.7 Brewer's use | 15.3 15.4 15.1 14.3 14.5 | 15.6 15.4 Residual 4/ | 9.0 8.8 8.8 11.7 7.4 | 8.3 7.1 Domestic use| 91.6 95.5 96.7 101.5 99.9 | 104.5 104.7 | | Exports | 71.0 66.4 77.0 75.2 99.4 | 83.0 78.0 Rough | 4.8 6.3 5.1 3.6 18.2 | 10.8 12.0 Milled 5/ | 66.2 60.1 71.9 71.5 81.2 | 72.2 66.0 Total use | 162.6 161.9 173.7 176.7 199.3 | 187.6 182.7 | | Ending stocks| 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.3 | 25.0 24.2 CCC stocks | 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 | 0.0 0.0 Free stocks | 24.5 27.0 39.3 25.8 31.2 | 25.0 24.2 | | | Percent | | | Stocks-use | 15.1 16.9 22.7 14.6 15.7 | 13.3 13.2 | | | $/cwt | 9.75 Average farm | | to price 6/ | 6.68 7.58 5.89 7.98 6.78 | 9.15 10.15 | | | Percent | Average | | milling rate| 72.0 70.5 70.0 74.0 74.1 | 71.4 72.0 =============================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Marketing year weighted average price received by farmers. Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1994/95 to present ============================================================================= | 1996/97 1995/96 1994/95 | -------------------- ------------------- ------------------- Month | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================= | August | 9.99 10,520 7.64 9,935 6.87 11,534 September | 9.95 13,478 7.95 12,010 6.89 12,610 October | 9.75 11,988 8.77 12,493 6.47 13,381 November | 9.36 11,768 9.12 12,951 6.53 15,470 December | 9.63 12,758 9.36 12,503 6.56 17,479 January | 9.87 15,927 9.33 13,130 6.78 17,781 February | 10.10 12,086 9.10 11,898 6.71 16,050 March | 10.20 1/ 12,646 1/ 9.31 14,690 6.64 17,565 April | 9.34 13,562 6.70 12,425 May | 9.69 11,538 6.75 16,848 June | 9.74 9,500 7.03 13,793 July | 9.68 10,142 7.17 9,847 | Average 2/ | 9.86 12,646 9.15 12,029 6.78 14,565 | Total 3/ | 9.75-10.15 4/ 144,352 174,783 ============================================================================= 1/ Preliminary midmonth price estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1996/97 is for August to current month. 3/ Total volume marketed. 4/ 1996/97 price range is USDA projection. Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1994/95 to present 1/ ============================================================================ | 1996/97 1995/96 1994/95 Month | -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ============================================================================ | | $/cwt | August | 7.69 7.84 7.96 7.93 6.22 6.06 5.33 5.64 5.33 September | 7.56 7.81 7.93 8.02 6.30 6.13 5.62 5.67 5.36 October | 7.39 7.73 7.85 8.81 6.67 6.51 5.74 5.61 5.32 November | 7.09 7.58 7.70 8.47 6.82 6.63 5.85 5.59 5.31 December | 7.15 7.63 7.74 8.17 7.16 6.95 5.82 5.59 5.31 January | 7.41 7.65 7.78 8.11 7.19 7.13 6.21 5.62 5.58 February | 7.47 7.57 7.75 7.90 7.49 7.67 6.41 5.70 5.66 March | 7.18 7.49 7.67 7.97 7.38 7.55 6.41 5.74 5.70 April | 6.81 7.21 7.38 2/ 7.68 7.25 7.42 6.41 5.74 5.70 May | 7.38 7.17 7.35 6.56 5.87 5.82 June | 7.64 7.42 7.60 7.38 6.03 6.00 July | 7.79 7.82 8.01 7.63 6.10 6.06 | Average 3/| 7.31 7.61 7.75 2/ 7.99 7.07 7.08 6.28 5.74 5.59 ============================================================================ 1/ Loan rate basis (rough); the repayment rate was the lower of the loan level for the crop or the higher of the prevailing world market price or the minimum repayment level. For the 1989 through 1995 crops, the minimum loan repayment levels were 70 percent of the loan level. The minimum loan repayment level has been eliminated for 1996-crop loans and loans are repayable at the lower of the loan level or the prevailing world price. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1991/92 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | 1996/97| 1995/96 | Country |--------|-------- 1995/96|1994/95 1993/94 1992/93 1991/92 or | as of | as of | region |04/03/97|04/03/96 Final | Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== 1,000 metric tons European Union | 335 | 322 452 | 503 362 362 263 Other Western Europe| 13 | 16 19 | 42 18 47 44 Turkey | 176 | 160 187 | 279 67 191 154 Eastern Europe | 4 | 34 34 | 63 10 46 39 Former Soviet Union | 21 | 19 37 | 19 4 15 42 | | | Japan | 224 | 191 192 | 2 568 0 0 | | | OTHER ASIA AND | | | THE MIDDLE EAST | 273 | 323 365 | 612 349 438 228 Iran | 0 | 72 72 | 262 121 130 7 Iraq | 0 | 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 Saudi Arabia | 149 | 122 144 | 165 157 205 146 Jordan | 56 | 22 22 | 62 1 33 18 | | | AFRICA | 193 | 276 346 | 307 258 315 244 Cote d'Ivoire | 27 | 88 82 | 77 67 92 56 Republic of | | | South Africa | 113 | 109 164 | 115 90 111 103 | | | WESTERN HEMISPHERE | 782 | 707 1,044 | 1,617 513 663 771 Canada | 103 | 90 116 | 139 91 98 88 Mexico | 260 | 190 318 | 327 177 249 118 Haiti | 61 | 87 121 | 153 43 117 97 Jamaica | 25 | 62 80 | 80 63 30 56 Costa Rica | 28 | 72 110 | 65 46 18 49 Colombia | 34 | 30 28 | 0 0 0 8 | | | Total | 2,022 | 2,049 2,678 | 3,426 2,149 2,075 1,783 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | | Census Bureau 2/ |2,547 4/| 2,690 | 3,601 2,625 2,555 2,241 Difference 3/ | 318 5/| 12 | 175 476 480 458 ============================================================================== Note: the "U.S. Export Sales" reports sales and shipments in product weight. The milled equivalent total may vary significantly from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales," FAS, USDA. Columns labeled "as of" represent combined exports plus sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census Bureau rice export total (reported on a milled equivalent basis) is the official export total. 3/ The "U.S. Export Sales" report does not include U.S. Government exports under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 4/ USDA forecast, milled equivalent. 5/ The average difference between the Census and the "Export Sales" for 1991/92-1995/96. Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present ============================================================================== | U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Month | ------------------------- ------------------------------------- or | Long Medium marketing | grain 3/ grain 4/ Parboiled 100% 5% par- 15% 35% A.1 6/ year 1/ | Houston Calif. Houston grade B boiled broken broken special ============================================================================== | | $/metric ton 7/ | 1986/87 | 240 282 311 190 171 173 154 122 1987/88 | 421 366 486 273 261 256 236 204 1988/89 | 324 361 386 292 284 275 256 232 1989/90 | 342 352 400 292 259 262 214 172 1990/91 | 331 347 400 296 277 261 213 169 1991/92 | 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 | 322 383 349 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 | 439 451 480 294 244 243 208 160 | Aug '94 | 313 428 353 259 271 237 222 200 Sep '94 | 309 397 344 267 265 246 233 210 Oct '94 | 304 397 331 272 262 249 238 216 Nov '94 | 298 397 331 272 263 249 236 215 Dec '94 | 298 397 331 270 259 250 237 222 Jan '95 | 298 366 331 282 264 265 252 232 Feb '95 | 298 358 342 289 266 270 255 226 Mar '95 | 298 353 342 292 269 272 253 222 Apr '95 | 298 353 342 290 269 271 254 226 May '95 | 311 353 346 299 274 279 262 239 Jun '95 | 358 353 380 333 305 314 297 276 Jul '95 | 392 353 406 353 341 335 321 297 | 1994/95 | 314 375 348 290 276 270 255 232 | Aug '95 | 386 364 419 346 343 327 310 288 Sep '95 | 386 380 424 368 354 346 322 285 Oct '95 | 430 432 485 393 373 372 340 293 Nov '95 | 441 441 463 354 342 334 315 296 Dec '95 | 419 496 463 347 337 326 307 278 Jan '96 | 410 507 454 372 355 350 321 271 Feb '96 | 402 474 449 377 357 348 307 256 Mar '96 | 397 463 441 373 350 344 301 260 Apr '96 | 406 459 454 342 316 310 272 245 May '96 | 430 441 471 347 318 312 272 244 Jun '96 | 430 441 474 360 339 322 275 240 Jul '96 | 430 441 474 370 347 335 281 229 | 1995/96 | 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 | Aug '96 | 446 441 491 346 330 314 265 213 Sep '96 | 452 441 478 341 331 311 264 216 Oct '96 | 449 433 474 324 330 293 250 208 Nov '96 | 438 430 463 325 327 293 248 206 Dec '96 | 430 430 463 330 325 298 253 205 Jan '97 | 435 424 474 367 334 332 277 218 Feb '97 | 455 402 485 359 321 320 270 226 Mar' 97 | 463 397 485 341 315 302 261 231 Apr' 97 8/| 463 397 485 316 301 283 253 228 | 1996/97 8/| 448 422 478 339 324 305 260 217 ============================================================================== 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ 100 percent broken. 7/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 8/ Preliminary. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1990/91 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1995/96 1996/97 Item | 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 | 2/ 3/ ==============================================================================LLONG-GRAIN | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.129 2.113 2.408 2.102 2.410 | 2.335 1.980 Harvested | 2.065 2.023 2.372 2.028 2.379 | 2.312 1.964 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 5,221 5,395 5,397 5,082 5,609 | 5,265 5,777 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 13.2 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 | 14.4 10.1 Production | 107.8 109.1 128.0 103.1 133.4 | 121.7 113.5 Imports | 4.3 4.7 5.4 6.2 6.0 | 6.3 9.5 Total supply | 125.3 125.4 146.4 130.9 154.5 | 142.4 133.1 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 57.8 61.4 60.8 67.2 60.3 | 66.7 64.0 Exports | 56.0 51.0 64.0 48.6 79.8 | 65.6 60.0 Total use | 113.8 112.4 124.8 115.8 140.1 | 132.3 124.0 | | Ending stocks | 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.4 | 10.1 9.1 | | | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 10.1 11.6 17.3 13.0 10.3 | 7.6 7.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN | | Million acres | | | Planted | 0.768 0.771 0.768 0.818 0.943 | 0.786 .839 Harvested | 0.758 0.758 0.760 0.805 0.937 | 0.781 .835 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 6,370 6,627 6,795 6,590 6,866 | 6,676 6,929 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 11.6 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 | 15.8 14.3 Production | 48.3 50.2 51.6 53.0 64.3 | 52.1 57.9 Imports | 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 | 1.2 1.0 Total supply | 60.5 62.4 64.8 70.9 75.0 | 69.5 73.2 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 33.8 34.1 35.9 34.3 39.6 | 37.8 40.7 Exports | 15.0 15.4 13.0 26.6 19.6 | 17.4 18.0 Total use | 48.8 49.5 48.9 60.9 59.2 | 55.3 58.7 | | Ending stocks | 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 | 14.3 14.5 | | | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 24.0 26.1 32.4 16.4 26.7 | 25.9 24.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Ending stocks | | difference 1/ | 1.4 1.4 2.0 0.7 1.1 | 0.6 0.6 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the stock total for all types of rice in Table 1. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. END_OF_FILE