RICE OUTLOOK June 13, 1997 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is a monthly report issued electronically by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005 -4788. No printed copies available. RCS-0697. -------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o The 1996/97 season average farm price is projected to be $9.85 per cwt, 10 cents below the midpoint of last month's projected range, but almost 8 percent above 1995/96. The 1997/98 season average farm price is projected to be $9.75 to $10.75 per cwt. o U.S. imports for 1997/98 are projected to be a record 13 million cwt, up 4 percent from last month's projection and up 18 percent from 1996/97. o U.S. ending stocks for 1997/98 are projected to drop almost 11 percent to 21.6 million cwt, yielding a stocks-to-use ratio of 12.1 percent. Both the stocks and ratio would be the lowest since 1980/81. o World production is projected to be a record 381.2 million tons in 1996/97, up 1 percent from last month's projection and 2.6 percent above 1995/96. SEASON-AVERAGE FARM PRICE PROJECTED TO RISE IN 1997/98 The 1997/98 (August-July) season average farm price (SAFP) is projected to be $9.75 to $10.75 per cwt, with the midpoint 40 cents above the 1996/97's projected price of $9.85. Smaller supplies, a drop in ending stocks, and a lower stocks-to-use ratio are behind the increase. The projected 1996/97 SAFP of $9.85 per cwt is down 10 cents from the midpoint of last month's projected range, but up nearly 8 percent from 1995/96. If realized, the 1996/97 SAFP would be the highest since 1980/81. The SAFP is likely to remain firm as expectations of relatively strong export demand for high-quality U.S. long grain rice, steadily rising domestic food use, and extremely tight supplies of U.S. long grain rice support U.S. prices. U.S. farm level rice prices strengthened in May 1996 and remained strong through the first half of May. Last month, USDA estimated May's midmonth farm price at 9.78 per cwt and raised April's to $10.20 from a preliminary $10. The May midmonth drop in cash prices is likely partially due to the small supplies of high quality long grain rice available for sale to mills: Thus lower priced medium grain rice makes up a larger share of sales. For the season average price to equal the midpoint of the forecast range, prices must average $9.75 per cwt for the remaining 2 months of the marketing year. U.S. CROP PROJECTED SMALLER IN 1997 The 1997/98 U.S. crop is pegged at 162.5 million cwt (rough), down 5 percent from the 1996 crop. The drop stems from a 6-percent decline in the projected yield to 5,762 pounds per acre. Harvested area is projected to post a slight increase. Carryin stocks are also lower than 1996/97 and total supplies--projected at 199.7 million cwt--are projected to be down almost 4 percent. Preventing a larger drop in supply is an 18-percent increase in projected imports to a record 13 million cwt--up .5 million cwt from last month's forecast. In 1996/97, imports rose 48 percent to a 11 million tons--second only to 1997/98's projected record. While most of the recent increase has been for domestic food use, some imports are blended with U.S. grown rice for reexport to Caribbean markets. Total use is projected at 178.1 million cwt, down 2.8 percent from 1996/97. A 1-million increase in projected food use will be more than offset by a 6-million-ton drop in exports. Ending stocks are projected to drop 11 percent from a year earlier, to 21.6 million tons, yielding a stocks-to-use ratio of 12.1 percent--the lowest stocks and stocks-to-use ratio since 1980/81. The 1997 crop projection is based on farmer planting intentions, average abandonment, and the 1992-95 average yield weighted by State and type of rice harvested area. In addition, the weighted-average yield has been lowered to reflect the impact of late plantings on this year's Texas crop. The late plantings have severely reduced the likelihood of growing a second or "ratoon" crop in Texas. Around 40 to 45 percent of Texas producers grow a ratoon crop, which typically accounts for 500 to 600 cwt of the State's total yield. On June 30, USDA will publish updated planted and acreage estimates. On August 12, USDA will report rice production based on objective yield and farm operator surveys. This year cold and wet weather delayed planting in Texas. By May 4, just a little over half of the State's crop had been planted, down from the 5-year average of over three-fourths. It is nearly impossible to produce a ratoon crop if the first crop is planted after mid-April. Even in early June, some Texas producers were still planting rice. In addition to the loss of a ratoon crop, a delayed crop in Texas could experience additional difficulties in late summer from hurricanes and thunderstorms. Although not a factor in the yield calculation, the cold wet weather this spring delayed emergence over most of the South. As of May 12, just a third of the Arkansas and Texas crops had emerged, well behind their 5-year averages of 50 and 64 percent. Even by June 8, emergence in Texas was slightly behind its 5-year average of 93 percent. All other southern States were either even with or ahead of their 5-year averages. The likelihood of disease, weed, and insect problems is increased by late plantings and/or delayed emergence. In contrast to the South, planting and emergence are well ahead of their 5-year averages in California. By late May, 98 percent of the California crop had been planted, well ahead of the 5-year average of 70 percent. And by June 8, nearly all the State's crop had emerged, compared with a 5-year average of 73 percent. Early planted crops tend to have less insect, weed, and disease problems compared with later planted rice, thus boding well for yields. A breakdown of crop by grain type indicates a long grain crop of 109 million cwt, down 4 percent from 1996/97. Medium grain production, projected at 53.5 million cwt, would be down 7.5 percent from last year. Long grain exports are projected at 53 million cwt, down 6 million cwt from 1996/97--a result of smaller supplies and higher prices--while domestic use is forecast to rise 1 million cwt to 66.5 million cwt. Medium grain exports are projected to remain steady at 18 million cwt and domestic use to remain nearly unchanged at 40.6 million. U.S. rice exports and sales commitments are running more than 7 percent behind last year's pace through the first 10 months of 1996/97, according to the U.S. Export Sales report of May 29, 1997. Primary destinations have been the EU, Mexico, Japan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Haiti, Colombia, South Africa, and Jordan. Exports for 1996/97 are projected to be 77 million cwt, down 1.3 percent from last month's forecast and over 7 percent below 1995/96. Total domestic and residual use for 1996/97 is projected at 106.2 million cwt, up 1.5 million cwt from last month's projection. INTERNATIONAL PRICES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE International prices for most grades of rice have been essentially flat since rising in late April, although they increased slightly in mid-May before dropping again by early June in the face of little export activity. Offer quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) averaged $328 per ton in late April and early May before rising to around $338 by the second week of May in the face of Thai sales to Nigeria and Iran. But prices returned to $329 by early June and have remained at this level as export activity was again extremely quiet. Strong worldwide demand for limited supplies of exportable high-quality long grain rice will likely limit any drop in trading prices this marketing year. In contrast to the Thai price, prices for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice--No. 2, 4-percent brokens, offer quotes f.o.b. Houston--have remained at $463 per ton since mid-February. Also, Vietnam, Thialand's principal competitor, has recently raised its prices. For the 1996/97 market year, the season average price for this grade of rice is projected to be $449 per ton. If realized, it would be the highest price for this grade since 1980/81. The U.S. price premium over Thai rice is currently about $134 a ton, just above May's $128. The April increase in the Thai price and the steady U.S. price decreased the U.S. premium to $135 per ton in early May from $144 in April, although the premium remains above March's $122. The premium had been as low as $96 in February and $68 in January before the Thai price began to slide against a steady U.S. price. Several years ago, U.S. rice had been viewed as competitive in world markets with a premium of $30-$40 over Thai rice. However, in recent years this level has likely risen due to some shifting of the U.S. export market to the Western Hemisphere and limited supplies of high-quality long grain rice worldwide. Prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, f.o.b.) have remained at $397 a ton since mid-February after dropping from $419 in early February and from $430 in mid-January. Prices have steadily declined since early 1996 when they were over $500 a ton. The decline in price for California medium grain rice in the first half of the 1996/97 market year was primarily due to an 11-percent increase in the 1996 U.S. medium grain crop from a year earlier and only a small increase in exports. The Australian large harvest of the medium-grain crop has also pressured global medium-grain prices. So far in 1996/97 there has not been much export activity beyond Japan's minimum access purchases--which were completed in January--and sales to regular medium grain buyers, such as Turkey which has purchased mostly rough rice. Japan's minimum access purchases are scheduled to increase in 1997/98 (April-March) to 531,000 metric tons (brown rice basis), likely adding strength to California medium grain prices. Prices for southern long grain (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, f.o.b. Gulf port) averaged $66 per ton above California medium grain since mid-February, the largest long grain price differential since February 1994. Tight supplies and strong U.S. and world demand for high quality long grain rice--coupled with little new export demand and ample supplies for medium grain rice--are behind the price differential. Prices for lower quality rice have slipped since March. Quotes for A.1 Special (100 percent brokens, f.o.b. Bangkok) have averaged $217 a ton thus far in June and were just slightly lower in May. They were $220 in April and $231 in March. Weak demand and ample supplies are behind the price slide. SOLID INCREASE IN GLOBAL PRODUCTION PROJECTED FOR 1996/97 World rice production is projected to be a record 381.2 million tons in 1996/97, up 1 percent from last month's projection and over 2.6 percent higher than 1995/96's crop. Total use is projected at 376.7 million tons, second only to 1997/98's projected use and up 1.7 percent from 1995/96. With production projected to exceed use, ending stocks are projected to rise 9 percent to almost 54.9 million tons. The 1996/97 stocks-to-use ratio is projected at almost 14.6 percent, above the 13.5-to-13.6 achieved the 2 previous years. For 1997/98, world rice production is projected to be 377.3 million tons (milled), down from this year's record crop. Foreign production is projected to be 372 million tons, down from 375.6 million in 1996/97, while the U.S. crop is projected to drop 5 percent to 5.3 million tons. Total consumption is projected to be a record 377.5 million tons in 1997/98, slightly higher than production, allowing 1997/98 ending stocks to remain virtually unchanged at 54.7 million tons and, yielding a stocks-to-use ratio of 14.5 percent, nearly identical to 1996/97. Country level projections will be published in July. Projected world production in 1996/97 is up 3.83 million tons (milled basis) from last month's forecast. Accounting for most of the increase is a 5.3 percent increase in China's projected record crop to 136.5 million tons (milled basis) based on China's State Statistical Bureau data indicating higher yields and a small increase in area. Also, Vietnam's projected output was raised 800,000 tons from last month to a record 17.8 million, the result of excellent weather, greater use of high-yielding varieties, and expanded harvested area, especially for the main winter-spring crop. Projections for major producers in Latin America--where harvest is currently underway--were raised as well. Brazil's projected crop was raised 300,000 tons to 6.5 million based on higher yields. Brazil--the largest non-Asian producer--is currently harvesting its crop and the weather is ideal over much of the country. Argentina's crop forecast was raised 65,000 tons to 780,000 due to greater area and yield. Uruguay's projected crop was increased 88,000 tons to 718,000, with higher yields accounting for most of the increase. These would be record crops for both Argentina and Uruguay who together account for most of Brazil's rice imports. In contrast, Australia's projected crop was reduced 44,000 tons from last month to just over 1 million based on ABARE data indicating a lower yield. Also, the projected crop in the Newly Independent States (former Soviet Union) was cut 177,000 tons to 703,000 due to a 10-percent drop in both area and yield. Uzbekistan reported the largest drop--154,000 tons--to 308,000 due to lower yields. Kazakstan also reported a significant drop--108,000 tons--with both area and yield lowered. China, Indonesia, Bangladesh, India, South Korea, Australia, the European Union, Pakistan, and the Philippines are all expected to produce noticeably larger crops in 1996/97, with several projected to harvest record crops. China's record paddy crop is projected at 195 million tons--up over 5 percent from 1995/96, the result of higher yields and area. India's paddy crop of 120.8 million tons--1 million tons below its 1994/95 record--would be up 1.6 million from last year due to higher area and yields. Bangladesh and Indonesia--both major rice producers--are forecast to harvest record crops of 27.8 million and 51.5 million tons. Paddy crops in both countries are projected up about 1 million tons from 1995/96. The Philippines is projected to produce a record 11.5-million-ton paddy crop, with production up 364,000 tons, or 3.3 percent from 1995/96. Two relatively small producers--the EU and Australia--are also projected to produce record paddy crops in 1996/97. The EU's crop is projected at 2.5 million tons--up 26 percent from a year earlier--and Australia's crop is projected at 1.4 million tons, up almost 48 percent from last season's drought-reduced crop. Vietnam's record paddy crop of 27 million tons would be up slightly from last year. In contrast, crops in Myanmar, Brazil, Thailand, and Japan are projected to show noticeable decreases from 1995/96. Paddy output in Myanmar is projected down nearly 1 million tons to 16 million. Brazil is projected to harvest a paddy crop of 9.6 million tons, 491,000 tons below 1995/96. Japan's crop is projected to drop almost 4 percent to 12.9 million tons. Japan currently has large stocks and declining consumption. For the 1997 crop, the Japanese government lowered the purchase price as well as retained its area diversion targets. GLOBAL TRADE TO DROP IN 1997 Trade for 1997--projected at 17.3 million tons--was raised 50,000 tons from last month's forecast; however, would be almost 2.1 million tons below for 1996. Trade in 1997 would still be the third highest ever. The increase from last month's projected exports was primarily due to a 250,000-ton increase in Vietnam's projected exports to 3 million tons based on a larger crop, heavy exports in May, big export contracts for June and July, and an increase in the government export target to 3.5 million tons. Also, Argentina's and Uruguay's export forecasts were raised 50,000 tons to 600,000 and 650,000 due to larger crops. In contrast, Thailand's exports were lowered 200,000 tons to 4.8 million based on the pace of sales to date and the high price of Thai rice compared with other Asian exporters. In addition, Australia's projected exports were lowered 100,000 tons to 700,000 based on its lack of sales, especially to the Middle East. On the import side, Brazil's projected imports were reduced 200,000 tons to 1 million based on expectations of a larger crop and a slower than expected pace of imports in 1996. Similarly, China's imports were reduced 200,000 tons to 600,000 based on light imports from January through May and projections for a larger crop. Peru's 1997 import projection was lowered 100,000 tons to 300,000 due to a higher tariff and a ban on imports from Vietnam, India, and Pakistan. In contrast, Malaysia's projected imports were raised 50,000 tons to 550,000 based on the pace of purchases to date. In addition, U.S. imports were revised up 25,000 tons to 350,000 to reflect increases based on large first-quarter purchases. Greater imports in 1997 by Iraq, Brazil, Japan, the U.S., and Nigeria are projected to be more than offset by reduced imports by Bangladesh, Senegal, Iran, Indonesia, the EU, the Philippines, North Korea, the Republic of South Africa, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Malaysia, Cuba, Guinea, South Korea, Russia, and Yemen. The largest importers for 1997 consist of Brazil, Iran, and Indonesia, which are all forecast to import 1 million tons. A growing population and a loss of rice land on Java account for Indonesia's substantial import needs. Iraq is expected to import 750,000 tons of rice, triple 1996 imports, following the United Nations authorization of oil for food sales. Japan's imports are projected to be 600,000 tons in 1997, with the 155,000 increase the result of the minimum access agreement of the WTO. Nigeria is projected to raise imports 50,000 tons from last year to 550,000 tons. Bangladesh, Iran, Senegal, Indonesia, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, and the EU account for the bulk of the year-to-year import drop. Bangladesh's imports are projected to drop 600,000 tons from 1996, due primarily to a larger domestic crop. Iran's projected imports are down 350,000 from 1996, but enough to maintain per capita consumption. Senegal's imports are projected to be 400,000 tons, down 300,000 from 1996. Some of 1996's imports were for transshipment to West African countries. Indonesia's imports are projected down 233,000 tons from 1996, a result of a larger crop. The Philippines is projected to import 700,000 tons, down 200,000 from 1996. The cut stems from large rice imports in early 1996 and the expected record 1996/97 crop. Sri Lanka's imports are projected to be 150,000 tons, down from 1996's 300,000. Sri Lanka suspended its import tariff in 1996 to increase imports in the face of a weak crop but terminated the suspension in early 1997. Imports by the EU are projected to drop 150,000 tons to 650,000 in 1997 largely in response to a larger 1996/97 crop. Rice imports by North Korea, Turkey, and the Republic of South Africa are each projected to drop 100,000 tons from 1996. Thailand's 4.8-million-ton 1997 export forecast is down 480,000 tons from 1996. Vietnam is projected to rank number 2, with its 3-million-ton export projection, down 100,000 tons from 1996. The United States is forecast to rank number 3, with exports of 2.4 million tons, down from more than 2.6 million in 1996. Pakistan--ranking number 4--is projected to export 1.65 million tons in 1997, slightly below 1996. India is projected to rank number 5, shipping 1.2 million tons--down 2.36 million tons from 1996--the result of lower prices from Vietnam for low-quality rice. Note: Printed copies of the 1996 Rice Yearbook are available. To order, call 1-800-999-6779. **************************************************************** INFORMATION CONTACT AT THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE: * Nathan Childs * nchilds@econ.ag.gov/ * * Next month's Rice Outlook will be available on July 14, 1997. * **************************************************************** Note: Detailed 1996/97 foreign supply and use forecasts are published on June 16, in the Foreign Agricultural Service's Grain: World Markets and Trade. Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1991/92 to present 1/ =========================================================================== | | 1996/97 1997/98 Item | 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 | 2/ 3/ =========================================================================== | | TOTAL RICE | Percent | | | ARP | 5 0 5 0 5 | N/A N/A | | Area | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.884 3.176 2.920 3.353 3.121 | 2.819 2.880 Harvested | 2.781 3.132 2.833 3.316 3.093 | 2.799 2.820 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 5,731 5,736 5,510 5,964 5,621 | 6,121 5,762 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.3 | 25.0 24.2 Production | 159.4 179.7 156.1 197.8 173.9 | 171.3 162.5 Imports | 5.3 6.1 6.9 7.0 7.4 | 11.0 13.0 Total supply| 189.3 213.2 202.5 230.6 212.6 | 207.4 199.7 | | Food | 67.1 69.0 71.2 74.0 77.0 | 80.0 81.0 Seed | 4.1 3.8 4.3 4.1 3.7 | 3.7 3.7 Brewers' use | 15.4 15.1 14.3 14.5 15.6 | 15.4 15.4 Residual 4/ | 8.8 8.8 11.7 7.4 8.3 | 7.1 7.5 Domestic use| 95.5 96.7 101.5 99.9 104.5 | 106.2 107.1 | | Exports | 66.4 77.0 75.2 99.4 83.0 | 77.0 71.0 Rough | 6.3 5.1 3.6 18.2 10.8 | 13.0 10.0 Milled 5/ | 60.1 71.9 71.5 81.2 72.2 | 64.0 61.0 Total use | 161.9 173.7 176.7 199.3 187.6 | 183.2 178.1 | | End. stocks | 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.3 25.0 | 24.2 21.6 CCC stocks | 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 Free stocks | 27.0 39.3 25.8 31.2 25.0 | 24.2 21.6 | Percent | Stocks-use | 16.9 22.7 14.6 15.7 13.3 | 13.2 12.1 | | | $/cwt | 9.75 Average farm | | to price 6/ | 7.58 5.89 7.98 6.78 9.15 | 9.85 10.75 | | | Percent | Average | | milling rate| 70.5 70.0 74.0 74.1 71.4 | 72.0 72.0 =========================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Marketing year weighted average price received by farmers. Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1994/95 to present =========================================================================== | 1996/97 1995/96 1994/95 | --------------------- ------------------- ------------------- Month | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt =========================================================================== | August | 9.99 10,520 7.64 9,935 6.87 11,534 September | 9.95 13,478 7.95 12,010 6.89 12,610 October | 9.75 11,988 8.77 12,493 6.47 13,381 November | 9.36 11,768 9.12 12,951 6.53 15,470 December | 9.63 12,758 9.36 12,503 6.56 17,479 January | 9.87 15,927 9.33 13,130 6.78 17,781 February | 10.10 12,086 9.10 11,898 6.71 16,050 March | 10.20 10,133 9.31 14,690 6.64 17,565 April | 10.20 9,902 9.34 13,562 6.70 12,425 May | 9.78 1/ 12,062 1/ 9.69 11,538 6.75 16,848 June | 9.74 9,500 7.03 13,793 July | 9.68 10,142 7.17 9,847 | Average 2/ | 9.88 12,062 9.15 12,029 6.78 14,565 | Total 3/ | 9.85 4/ 110,990 144,352 174,783 | =========================================================================== 1/ Preliminary midmonth price estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1996/97 is for August to current month. 3/ Total volume marketed; 1996/97 is August to current month. 4/ 1996/97 is USDA price range. Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1994/95 to present 1/ =========================================================================== | 1996/97 1995/96 1994/95 Month | -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short =========================================================================== | | $/cwt | August | 7.69 7.84 7.96 7.93 6.22 6.06 5.33 5.64 5.33 September | 7.56 7.81 7.93 8.02 6.30 6.13 5.62 5.67 5.36 October | 7.39 7.73 7.85 8.81 6.67 6.51 5.74 5.61 5.32 November | 7.09 7.58 7.70 8.47 6.82 6.63 5.85 5.59 5.31 December | 7.15 7.63 7.74 8.17 7.16 6.95 5.82 5.59 5.31 January | 7.41 7.65 7.78 8.11 7.19 7.13 6.21 5.62 5.58 February | 7.47 7.57 7.75 7.90 7.49 7.67 6.41 5.70 5.66 March | 7.18 7.49 7.67 7.97 7.38 7.55 6.41 5.74 5.70 April | 6.91 7.16 7.33 7.68 7.25 7.42 6.41 5.74 5.70 May | 8.11 7.14 7.29 7.38 7.17 7.35 6.56 5.87 5.82 June | 8.15 7.02 7.16 2/ 7.64 7.42 7.60 7.38 6.03 6.00 July | 7.79 7.82 8.01 7.63 6.10 6.06 | Average 3/| 7.46 7.51 7.65 2/ 7.99 7.07 7.08 6.28 5.74 5.59 =========================================================================== 1/ Loan rate basis (rough); the repayment rate was the lower of the loan level for the crop or the higher of the prevailing world market price or the minimum repayment level. For the 1989 through 1995 crops, the minimum loan repayment levels were 70 percent of the loan level. The minimum loan repayment level has been eliminated for 1996-crop loans and loans are repayable at the lower of the loan level or the prevailing world price. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1991/92 to present 1/ =========================================================================== | 1996/97| 1995/96 | Country |--------|-------- 1995/96|1994/95 1993/94 1992/93 1991/92 or | as of | as of | region |05/29/97|05/29/96 Final | Final Final Final Final =========================================================================== 1,000 metric tons | | | European Union | 381 | 407 452 | 503 362 362 263 Other Western Europe| 15 | 18 19 | 42 18 47 44 Turkey | 198 | 160 187 | 279 67 191 154 Eastern Europe | 4 | 34 34 | 63 10 46 39 Newly Ind. States | 22 | 36 37 | 19 4 15 42 | | | Japan | 214 | 192 192 | 2 568 0 0 | | | OTHER ASIA AND | | | THE MIDDLE EAST | 293 | 348 365 | 612 349 438 228 Iran | 0 | 72 72 | 262 121 130 7 Iraq | 0 | 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 Saudi Arabia | 165 | 142 144 | 165 157 205 146 Jordan | 56 | 22 22 | 62 1 33 18 | | | AFRICA | 204 | 297 346 | 307 258 315 244 Cote d'Ivoire | 31 | 82 82 | 77 67 92 56 Republic of | | | South Africa | 114 | 127 164 | 115 90 111 103 | | | WESTERN HEMISPHERE | 884 | 895 1,044 | 1,617 513 663 771 Canada | 108 | 101 116 | 139 91 98 88 Mexico | 287 | 264 318 | 327 177 249 118 Haiti | 80 | 105 121 | 153 43 117 97 Jamaica | 28 | 75 80 | 80 63 30 56 Costa Rica | 55 | 110 110 | 65 46 18 49 Colombia | 34 | 28 28 | 0 0 0 8 | | | Total | 2,216 | 2,388 2,678 | 3,426 2,149 2,075 1,783 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Census Bureau 2/ |2,520 4/| 2,690 | 3,601 2,625 2,555 2,241 Difference 3/ | 318 5/| 12 | 175 476 480 458 =========================================================================== Note: The "U.S. Export Sales" reports sales and shipments in product weight. The milled equivalent total may vary significantly from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales," FAS, USDA. Columns labeled "as of" represent combined exports plus sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census Bureau rice export total (reported on a product-weight basis) is the official export total. 3/ The "U.S. Export Sales" report does not include U.S. Government exports under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 4/ USDA forecast, milled equivalent basis. 5/ The average difference between exports reported by the U.S. Census Bureau and exports reported in "U.S. Export Sales" for 1991/92-1995/96. Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1988/89 to present =========================================================================== | U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Month | ------------------------- ------------------------------------- or | Long Medium marketing | grain 3/ grain 4/ Parboiled 100% 5% par- 15% 35% A.1 6/ year 1/ | Houston Calif. Houston grade B boiled broken broken special =========================================================================== | $/metric ton 7/ 1988/89 | 324 361 386 292 284 275 256 232 1989/90 | 342 352 400 292 259 262 214 172 1990/91 | 331 347 400 296 277 261 213 169 1991/92 | 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 | 322 383 349 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 | 439 451 480 294 244 243 208 160 | Aug '94 | 313 428 353 259 271 237 222 200 Sep '94 | 309 397 344 267 265 246 233 210 Oct '94 | 304 397 331 272 262 249 238 216 Nov '94 | 298 397 331 272 263 249 236 215 Dec '94 | 298 397 331 270 259 250 237 222 Jan '95 | 298 366 331 282 264 265 252 232 Feb '95 | 298 358 342 289 266 270 255 226 Mar '95 | 298 353 342 292 269 272 253 222 Apr '95 | 298 353 342 290 269 271 254 226 May '95 | 311 353 346 299 274 279 262 239 Jun '95 | 358 353 380 333 305 314 297 276 Jul '95 | 392 353 406 353 341 335 321 297 1994/95 | 314 375 348 290 276 270 255 232 Aug '95 | 386 364 419 346 343 327 310 288 Sep '95 | 386 380 424 368 354 346 322 285 Oct '95 | 430 432 485 393 373 372 340 293 Nov '95 | 441 441 463 354 342 334 315 296 Dec '95 | 419 496 463 347 337 326 307 278 Jan '96 | 410 507 454 372 355 350 321 271 Feb '96 | 402 474 449 377 357 348 307 256 Mar '96 | 397 463 441 373 350 344 301 260 Apr '96 | 406 459 454 342 316 310 272 245 May '96 | 430 441 471 347 318 312 272 244 Jun '96 | 430 441 474 360 339 322 275 240 Jul '96 | 430 441 474 370 347 335 281 229 1995/96 | 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 Aug '96 | 446 441 491 346 330 314 265 213 Sep '96 | 452 441 478 341 331 311 264 216 Oct '96 | 449 433 474 324 330 293 250 208 Nov '96 | 438 430 463 325 327 293 248 206 Dec '96 | 430 430 463 330 325 298 253 205 Jan '97 | 435 424 474 367 334 332 277 218 Feb '97 | 455 402 485 359 321 320 270 226 Mar '97 | 463 397 485 341 315 302 261 231 Apr '97 | 463 397 485 319 301 285 252 220 May '97 | 463 397 485 335 315 300 257 215 Jun '97 8/| 463 397 485 322 322 294 251 217 1996/97 8/| 451 417 479 338 323 304 259 216 =========================================================================== 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ 100 percent broken. 7/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 8/ Preliminary. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1991/92 to present 1/ =========================================================================== | | 1996/97 1997/98 Item | 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96| 2/ 3/ =========================================================================== LONG-GRAIN | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.113 2.408 2.102 2.410 2.335 | 1.980 Harvested | 21023 2.372 2.028 2.379 2.312 | 1.964 | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 5,395 5,397 5,082 5,609 5,265 | 5,777 | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.4 | 10.1 9.1 Production | 109.1 128.0 103.1 133.4 121.7 | 113.5 109.0 Imports | 4.7 5.4 6.2 6.0 6.3 | 10.0 12.0 Total supply | 125.4 146.4 130.9 154.5 142.4 | 133.6 130.1 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 61.4 60.8 67.2 60.3 66.7 | 65.5 66.5 Exports | 51.0 64.0 48.6 79.8 65.6 | 59.0 53.0 Total use | 112.4 124.8 115.8 140.1 132.3 | 124.5 119.5 | | Ending stocks | 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.4 10.1 | 9.1 10.6 | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 11.6 17.3 13.0 10.3 7.6 | 7.3 8.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN | | Million acres | Planted | 0.771 0.768 0.818 0.943 0.786 | .839 Harvested | 0.758 0.760 0.805 0.937 0.781 | .835 | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 6,627 6,795 6,590 6,866 6,676 | 6,929 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 | 14.3 14.5 Production | 50.2 51.6 53.0 64.3 52.1 | 57.9 53.5 Imports | 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.2 | 1.0 1.0 Total supply | 62.4 64.8 70.9 75.0 69.5 | 73.2 69.0 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 34.1 35.9 34.3 39.6 37.8 | 40.7 40.6 Exports | 15.4 13.0 26.6 19.6 17.4 | 18.0 18.0 Total use | 49.5 48.9 60.9 59.2 55.3 | 58.7 58.6 | | Ending stocks | 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 14.3 | 14.5 10.4 | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 26.1 32.4 16.4 26.7 25.9 | 24.6 17.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Ending stocks | | difference 1/ | 1.4 2.0 0.7 1.1 0.6 | 0.6 0.6 =========================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the stock total for all types of rice in Table 1. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. END_OF_FILE