RICE OUTLOOK July 14, 1997 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RICE OUTLOOK is issued electronically once a month by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. No printed copies are available. RCS-0797. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o The 1997 U.S. rice crop is projected at 176 million cwt, up 8.3 percent from last month's projection and almost 3 percent larger than the 1996 crop. o The 1997/98 season average farm price is projected to be $9 to $10 per cwt, down 75 cents on both the high and low end of last month's forecast range, with the midpoint 40 cents below 1996/97's season average price of $9.90. o U.S. exports for 1997/98 are projected to be 79 million cwt, 11 percent higher than last month's projection and up almost 3 percent from 1996/97. o U.S. ending stocks for 1997/98 are projected at 23.5 million tons, up 9 percent from last month's projection, but down nearly 2 percent from a year earlier, yielding the lowest stocks and stocks-to-use ratio since 1980/81. o World production is projected at 379.4 million tons in 1997/98, up .6 percent from last month's projection, but down .5 percent from 1996/97's record. INCREASED AREA ESTIMATE RAISES 1997 U.S. CROP PROJECTION The 1997/98 U.S. rough rice crop is pegged at 176 million hundredweight (cwt), up over 8 percent from last month's projection and nearly 3 percent above the 1996 crop. The month-to-month revision is due to a 6.4-percent increase in projected planted area to almost 3.07 million acres. The June Acreage report, the first survey of actual plantings for the 1997 crop, pegged planted area up 185,000 acres from the intended plantings reported in the March Perspective Plantings. The larger than expected plantings were due to higher prices for rice than for alternative crops--primarily corn and soybeans--at planting. In May, both corn and soybean season-average prices were projected to be lower in 1997/98 than 1996/97, while no price drop was expected for rice. The Acreage report indicated a 216,000 acre--or 10.4 percent--increase in long grain plantings from the Perspective Plantings report. Accounting for the bulk of the long grain area increase over the March report is a 210,000 acre--or 22.6 percent--increase in Arkansas long grain plantings to 1.14 million, equaling nearly half of all 1997 U.S. long grain plantings. Mississippi reported a 20,000 acre--or 8-percent--increase in long grain plantings from intended plantings. Louisiana and Missouri reported long-grain increases of 5,000 and 9,000 acres, up 5 and 9 percent, respectively. Texas area was reported down 30,000 acres--or about 10 percent--from intended plantings, with long grain down 28,000 and medium down 2,000. Extremely late planting accounts for much of the month-to-month drop in Texas area. California--the only State to report a major increase in medium grain plantings--reported medium grain area at 491,000 acres, up 35,000 acres or 7.7 percent from the March report. Missouri's medium grain area was reported at 1,000 acres, up from no intended acreage in March. Arkansas reported a 60,000 drop in medium grain plantings and Louisiana's medium grain area was down 5,000 acres. On a year-to-year basis, the June Acreage report indicated total planted area up 246,000 acres--nearly 9 percent--from 1996. Long grain was reported up 303,000 acres--or over 15 percent--and medium grain down--62,000--or 7.5 percent. Higher prices for long grain rice and short supplies account for the area shift to long grain rice. All States except Texas reported greater area in 1997 than in 1996, with Arkansas plantings up 170,000 acres, Mississippi up 60,000, Louisiana up 35,000, and Missouri--the smallest rice producing State--up 8,000 acres. Texas area was reported down 40,000 acres--or over 13 percent--from 1996, with long grain down 35,000 and medium down 5,000. This continues a long-term decline in Texas rice plantings that began after the early 1980's when area exceeded 500,000 acres. Water constraints, high costs, and the lack of a good rotation crop are behind the long term area contraction in Texas. California--which posted a 2.6-percent annual increase in total rice area to 515,000 acres--was the only State to report a significant increase in medium grain plantings in 1997, up over 1.4 percent from 1996. Medium grain area was reported at 1,000 acres in Missouri, up from zero in 1995 and 1996. Short grain area was also up in California, rising 5,000 acres to 18,000 and accounting for 90 percent of U.S. short grain acreage. Arkansas is the only other State to produce short grain rice, and its area has been stable at about 2,000 acres since 1994. In contrast to the expansion in area, the 1997 average yield--a 5-year Olympic average weighted by plantings by State and grain type--is projected at 5,795 pounds per acre, down over 5 percent from 1996's record 6,121. A shift in share of total acreage from the higher yielding California medium grain rice to lower yielding southern long grain, as well as a projected return to trend yields account for most of the decline. In addition, the 1997 projected yield was adjusted to reflect the likelihood that few Texas producers would be able to harvest a "ratoon" or partial second crop due to cold wet spring weather which caused late plantings. Typically, 40 to 45 percent of Texas producers harvest a ratoon crop. This year, no more than 10 percent were able to plant early enough to harvest a ratoon crop. About 10 percent of the Texas yield is attributed to the ratoon crop. This month's yield was raised slightly from last month due to new area weightings from the June Acreage report. The first objective yield estimate for the 1997 crop will be made in August. Total U.S. supplies for 1997/98 are projected at 210.9 million cwt, up 5.6 percent from last month's projection and 1.7 percent above a year earlier. Both the month-to-month and year-to-year supply increase are due to the increased crop projection. Imports are revised down 2 million cwt to 11 million--unchanged from 1996/97--in light of the larger crop and supply forecast. Carryin stocks for 1997/98--already projected below a year earlier--were reduced 300,000 cwt from last month's projection to 23.9 million cwt due to an increase in 1996/97 seed use. The U.S. crop is currently behind normal. By July 6, just 7 percent of the crop had headed, well below the 5-year average of 12 percent. The Texas crop was only 15 percent headed by early July, well below its average of 33 percent. In addition, Louisiana reported 21 percent of its crop headed by July 6, compared with an average of 39 percent. Mississippi's crop is actually ahead of its average, and early July is too soon for rice to head in Arkansas and California. While heading is behind in parts of the South, the overall crop condition is quite favorable, with the national index at almost 105--an index of 100 indicates a normal crop. However, late-planted rice often has more weed, insect, and disease problems than earlier planted rice. In addition, heat stress is more likely for late-planted rice in the South and hurricane damage along the Gulf Coast is more likely the later the harvest occurs. In contrast to the South, planting and emergence are well ahead of their 5-year averages in California. By late May, 98 percent of the California crop had been planted, well ahead of the 5-year average of 70 percent. And by June 8, nearly all the State's crop had emerged, compared with a 5-year average of 73 percent. Early planted crops tend to bode well for yields. EXPANSION PROJECTED FOR U.S. EXPORTS IN 1997/98 Total U.S. rice use is projected at 187.4 million cwt in 1996/97, up over 5 percent from last month and 2 percent higher than 1996/97. Both exports and domestic use were revised up from last month. Food use was raised .6 percent to 81.5 million cwt, closer to--but still below--growth rates achieved in prior years of the decade. Exports were raised 8 million cwt from last month to 79 million cwt, a result of the larger supply and an expected reduction in price. Exports would exceed 1996/97 exports by over 2.5 percent. Seed use for 1997/98--for planting the 1998 crop--was raised 300,000 cwt from last month to 4 million. Ending stocks are projected to be 23.5 million cwt, up 9 percent from last month's forecast--a result of the higher projected crop--but down 1.7 percent from a year earlier as the larger crop was more than offset by greater total use. The stocks-to-use ratio for 1997/98 is projected to be 12.5 percent, above last month's projection of 12.1 percent, but below the 13 to 13.3 percent achieved in 1995/96 and 1996/97. The 1997/98 stocks and stocks-to-use ratio would be the lowest since 1980/81. A breakdown of crop by grain type indicates a long grain crop of 120.5 million cwt, up almost 11 percent from last month's projection and up 6.2 percent from 1996/97. Medium grain production, projected at 55.5 million cwt, is up almost 4 percent from last month's projection but down nearly 4 percent from 1996. Long grain exports are projected at 61 million cwt, up 8 million from last month's projection, and 2 million higher than 1996/97--a result of larger projected supplies and somewhat lower expected prices. Long grain domestic use is projected to rise 3.5 percent from 1996/97 while medium grain domestic use is expected to remain essentially unchanged. FARM PRICES TO REMAIN HIGH IN 1997/98 The 1997/98 (August-July) season average farm price (SAFP) is projected to be $9 to $10 per cwt, down 75 cents on both the high and low end from last month's projection, with the midpoint 40 cents below 1996/97's projected price of $9.90. The month-to-month projected price decrease was due to the larger crop forecast. The projected 1996/97 SAFP of $9.90 per cwt is up 5 cents from last month's projected price, and up over 8 percent from 1995/96. The increase was based on monthly prices to date and the extremely small supplies of long grain rice available for sale. If realized, the 1996/97 SAFP would be the highest since 1980/81. Farm prices are likely to remain firm through the 1997/98 marketing year due to expectations of relatively strong export demand for high-quality U.S. long grain rice, steadily rising domestic food use, and continued tight supplies of U.S. long grain rice. U.S. farm level rice prices have averaged over $10 a cwt since January 1997 and have remained strong through the first half of June. Last month, USDA estimated June's midmonth price at $9.97 per cwt and raised May's to $10.10 from a preliminary $9.78 per cwt. The June midmonth drop in cash prices is partially due to the small supplies of high quality long grain rice available for sale to mills: Thus lower priced medium grain rice makes up a larger share of sales. For the season average price to equal the midpoint of the forecast range, prices must average $9.90 per cwt in July, the last month of the 1996/97 marketing year. U.S. rice exports and sales commitments are running 10 percent behind last year's pace through the first 11 months of 1996/97, according to the U.S. Export Sales report of July 3, 1997. Primary destinations have been the EU, Mexico, Japan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Haiti, Colombia, South Africa, and Jordan. INTERNATIONAL PRICES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE International prices for most grades of rice have been essentially flat since early May after rising in late April. However, prices did rise slightly in late June on expanded export activity and the devaluation of the Thai Baht before dropping again in early July in the face of little new export activity and the adjustment of the market to the new exchange rate. An exception was parboiled rice prices which increased in early July due to Nigerian purchases. Offer quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) averaged $335 per ton in both May, June, and thus far in July. Thai prices had risen in late June to as high as $346 due to purchases by Japan, Nigeria, and Iran. The harvest of the Thai second crop weighed heavily over market prices in May and June. However, strong worldwide demand for limited supplies of exportable high-quality long grain rice will likely limit any drop in trading prices for the remainder of this marketing year and in 1997/98. In contrast, Vietnam--Thailand's major competitor--raised prices for its rice in May and June in response to very strong export demand. Vietnam reported exporting a total of 1 million tons of rice from May 1 to June 30, a record pace for the country. Vietnam is currently pricing $50 to $60 a ton below the Thai price for similar qualities of rice. Prices for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice--No. 2, 4-percent brokens, offer quotes f.o.b. Houston--have remained at $463 per ton since mid- February. For the 1996/97 market year, the season average price for this grade of rice is projected to be $452 per ton. If realized, it would be the highest price for this grade since 1981/82. The U.S. price premium over Thai rice is currently $128 a ton, unchanged from May and June as prices for both country's rice have essentially been flat. Several years ago, U.S. rice had been viewed as competitive in world markets with a premium of $30-$40 over Thai rice. However, in recent years this level has likely risen due to some shifting of the U.S. export market to the Western Hemisphere and limited supplies of high-quality long grain rice worldwide. Prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, f.o.b.) have remained at $397 a ton since mid-February after dropping from $419 in early February and from $430 in mid-January. Prices have steadily declined since early 1996 when they were over $500 a ton. The decline in price for California medium grain rice in the first half of the 1996/97 market year was primarily due to an 11-percent increase in the 1996 U.S. medium grain crop from a year earlier and only a small increase in exports. The Australian harvest of a record medium-grain crop has also pressured global medium-grain prices. So far in 1996/97 there has not been much export activity beyond Japan's minimum access purchases--which were completed in January--and sales to regular medium grain buyers, such as Turkey which has purchased mostly rough rice. Japan's minimum access purchases are scheduled to increase in 1997/98 (April-March) to 531,000 metric tons (brown rice basis), likely adding strength to California medium grain prices. Except for a small increase in late June resulting from greater demand for Thai rice, prices for lower quality rice have essentially slipped since March. Quotes for A.1 Special (100 percent brokens, f.o.b. Bangkok) have averaged $212 a ton thus far in July and were just slightly higher in May. They were $220 in April and $231 in March. Weak demand and ample supplies are behind the price slide. GLOBAL PRODUCTION PROJECTED TO DROP IN 1997/98 For 1997/98, world rice production is projected to be 379.4 million tons (milled), up a half percent from last month's forecast, but down a half percent from 1996/97's record crop. Foreign production is projected to be 373.6 million tons, down from 375.9 million in 1996/97, while the U.S. crop is projected to rise 3 percent to 5.75 million tons. Total consumption is projected to be a record 380.7 million tons in 1997/98, slightly higher than production, pulling 1997/98 ending stocks down almost 2.4 percent to 53.7 million tons. This yields a stocks-to-use ratio for 1997/98 of 14.1 percent, down from 14.6 in 1996/97. The 2.07 million ton increase in 1997/98 world production from last month's projection is primarily due to adjustments resulting from a 200,000 ton increase in the projection for Vietnam's 1996/97 crop to a record 18 million tons (milled). Vietnam's 1997/98 crop is projected at 18 million tons--tying last year's record. Expectations regarding Vietnam's 1997/98 crop have been enhanced by increased plantings of the country's winter-spring crop in recent years. This is the largest of Vietnam's three annual crops and has achieved the highest annual yield of the three since 1991/92. Vietnam appears to be moving away from its lower yielding 10-month crop. In 1996/97, the winter- spring crop did better than expected even though there was much flooding. The first country estimates for 1997/98 are reported this month. China accounts for the bulk of the year-to-year drop in projected world production. China's 1997/98 crop is projected at 134 million tons (milled), down 2.5 million tons from 1996/97's record. A 2.2-percent drop in projected area is behind the smaller crop. South Korea and Japan account for the bulk of the rest of the projected decrease. Japan's crop--projected at 9 million tons--would be over 4 percent below 1996/97's crop with the drop due to a lower yield and a small decrease in area. South Korea's crop is projected to drop 450,000 tons to 4.87 million, due mostly to lower expected yields and a small drop in area. Both Japan and South Korea have experienced heavy rain and flooding this summer, requiring some replanting. The drop in area in both countries continues a long-term decline necessitated by declining per capita consumption and rising World Trade Organization (WTO) minimum access imports. Brazil's crop is projected to drop 150,000 tons as yields are expected to drop from 1996/97's record; area is actually forecast to increase. In contrast to these countries, India is projected to produce an 81-million ton crop (milled), up 460,000 tons from 1996/97 and just short of 1994/95's record. Both area and yield are projected higher. However, the Southwest Asian Monsoon arrived late this year, with much of India's rice growing area's drier than normal and in need of rainfall. Thailand's crop is projected up 300,000 tons to 14.2 million, the result of both greater area and higher yields. But like India, rainfall has been below normal this year. Although Indonesia's crop is projected to tie 1996/97's record of 33.5 million tons, drier than normal weather could reduce the yield of the second crop, which is currently being planted. The drier weather over these countries is in part the result of an El Nino--or abnormal warming of the Pacific Ocean--and could adversely impact rice crops across most of Southwest and Southeast Asia. All 1997/98 crop forecasts have been made assuming normal weather. For 1996/97, world production is projected at a record 381.5 million tons (milled), 240,000 tons higher than last month's forecast and up 2.5 percent from 1995/96. The month-to-month increase was the result of a 200,000 ton increase in Vietnam's projected crop to 18 million tons. Vietnam's crop projection was increased due to a better winter-spring crop than previously expected, even though the crop experienced substantial flooding. The year-to-year increase in world production is the result of record crops in several Asian countries and in some smaller, non-Asian countries. China posted the largest year-to-year increase, producing a record 136.5-million-ton crop, up 5.3 percent from 1995/96, the result of higher yields and an increase in area. Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Australia, Argentina, the European Union, and Uruguay are projected to harvest record crops in 1996/97. Total use for 1996/97 is projected at nearly 377 million tons (milled), second only to 1997/98's projected record use and up 1.9 percent from 1995/96. With production projected to exceed use, ending stocks are projected to rise over 9 percent to 55 million tons. The 1996/97 stocks-to-use ratio is projected at almost 14.6 percent, above the 13.5 to 13.6 achieved the 2 previous years. GLOBAL TRADE TO RISE IN 1998 Global rice trade is projected at 18.5 million tons (milled) in 1998, up 5.3 percent from this year and the third highest ever after 1995 and 1996. Several major importers are projected to increase trade in 1998, with many taking 1 million tons or more of rice. Iran and Brazil are projected to be the largest importers in 1998, each importing 1.25 million tons, a 250,000-ton-increase for both. A smaller projected Brazilian crop and no expected expansion in Iran's crop are behind the import growth. China's imports are projected at 1 million tons, up 400,000 based on expectations of larger imports of fragrant rice from Thailand which were in short supply in 1997. Indonesia is projected to import 1 million tons in 1998, up from 750,000 this year, the result of a flat crop and rising use. The Philippines' imports are projected at 1 million tons, up 300,000 from 1997 as consumption continues to increase and the government does not want retail food prices to rise and fuel its general inflation rate. Several other countries are expected to import more rice in 1998. Senegal's imports are projected up 100,000 tons from 1997 to 500,000 in response to declining stocks and a drop in imports in 1997. Peru is expected to post a 100,000-ton-increase in imports, to 350,000, a result of a smaller 1997/98 crop and a drop in imports in 1997. Smaller 1997/98 crop projections are behind a 50,000-ton-increase in the EU's imports to 700,000 and a 50,000-ton-increase in Nigeria's projected imports to 600,000. Japan's and South Korea's imports are expected to rise in 1998 as the WTO mandated minimum access import requirements increase. Rising consumption and flat production are behind a 50,000 ton increase in Malaysia's imports to a projected 600,000 tons in 1998. On the export side, Thailand's exports are projected to rebound 700,000 tons from this year to 5.5 million in 1998, primarily the result of a larger crop. Vietnam's exports are projected at 3.5 million tons--a record--and up 250,000 from this year based on expectations of another large crop. India's exports are projected to rise 300,000 tons to 1.5 million tons. Pakistan's exports are projected to rise 50,000 tons to 1.7 million tons. Greater exports from India and Pakistan are the result of larger projected crops for each country. A small increase in U.S. exports to 2.6 million tons is projected, the result of a larger crop in 1997. In contrast, exports from Australia, China, and the EU are expected to decline in 1998, the result of smaller crops. Trade for 1997 was revised up 290,000 tons from last month to 17.58 million. Vietnam's projected exports were raised 250,000 to 3.25 million tons based on the pace of sales during May and June and a larger crop forecast. On the import side, Indonesia's import projection was lowered 250,000 tons to 750,000 in response to a slackening of import activity and a reported build-up in stocks. Iraq's projected imports were lowered 150,000 tons to 600,000 based on delays in contract approval. Note: Printed copies of the 1996 Rice Yearbook are available. To order, call 1-800-999-6779. ******************************************************** INFORMATION CONTACT AT THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE: Nathan Childs (202) 501-8513 Next month's Rice Outlook will be available on August 13, 1997. ******************************************************** Note: Detailed 1997/98 foreign supply and use forecasts are published on July 15, in the Foreign Agricultural Service's GRAIN: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE. Tables: Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1991/92 to present Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1994/95 to present Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1994/95 to present Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1991/92 to present Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1988/89 to present Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1991/92 to present Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1991/92 to present 1/ =========================================================================== | |1996/97 1997/98 Item | 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 | 2/ 3/ =========================================================================== | | TOTAL RICE | Percent | | | | | ARP | 5 0 5 0 5 | N/A N/A | | Area | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.884 3.176 2.920 3.353 3.121 | 2.819 3.065 Harvested | 2.781 3.132 2.833 3.316 3.093 | 2.799 3.037 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 5,731 5,736 5,510 5,964 5,621 | 6,121 5,795 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.3 | 25.0 23.9 Production | 159.4 179.7 156.1 197.8 173.9 | 171.3 176.0 Imports | 5.3 6.1 6.9 7.0 7.4 | 11.0 11.0 Total supply | 189.3 213.2 202.5 230.6 212.6 | 207.4 210.9 | | Food | 67.1 69.0 71.2 74.0 77.0 | 80.0 81.5 Seed | 4.1 3.8 4.3 4.1 3.7 | 4.0 4.0 Brewers' use | 15.4 15.1 14.3 14.5 15.6 | 15.4 15.4 Residual 4/ | 8.8 8.8 11.7 7.4 8.3 | 7.1 7.5 Domestic use | 95.5 96.7 101.5 99.9 104.5 | 106.5 108.4 | | Exports | 66.4 77.0 75.2 99.4 83.0 | 77.0 79.0 Rough | 6.3 5.1 3.6 18.2 10.8 | 13.0 14.0 Milled 5/ | 60.1 71.9 71.5 81.2 72.2 | 64.0 65.0 Total use | 161.9 173.7 176.7 199.3 187.6 | 183.5 187.4 | | Ending | | stocks | 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.3 25.0 | 23.9 23.5 CCC stocks | 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 Free stocks | 27.0 39.3 25.8 31.2 25.0 | 23.9 23.5 | | | Percent | | | Stocks-use- | | ratio | 16.9 22.7 14.6 15.7 13.3 | 13.0 12.5 | | | $/cwt | $9.00 Average farm | | to price 6/ | $7.58 $5.89 $7.98 $6.78 $9.15 | 9.90 $10.00 | | | Percent | Average | | milling rate | 70.5 70.0 74.0 74.1 71.4 | 72.0 72.0 =========================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Marketing year weighted average price received by farmers. Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough quivalent, 1994/95 to present =========================================================================== | 1996/97 1995/96 1994/95 | --------------------- ------------------- ------------------- Month | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt =========================================================================== | August | 9.99 10,520 7.64 9,935 6.87 11,534 September | 9.95 13,478 7.95 12,010 6.89 12,610 October | 9.75 11,988 8.77 12,493 6.47 13,381 November | 9.36 11,768 9.12 12,951 6.53 15,470 December | 9.63 12,758 9.36 12,503 6.56 17,479 January | 9.87 15,927 9.33 13,130 6.78 17,781 February | 10.10 12,086 9.10 11,898 6.71 16,050 March | 10.20 10,133 9.31 14,690 6.64 17,565 April | 10.20 9,902 9.34 13,562 6.70 12,425 May | 10.10 7,969 9.69 11,538 6.75 16,848 June | 9.97 1/ 11,653 1/ 9.74 9,500 7.03 13,793 July | 9.68 10,142 7.17 9,847 | Average 2/ | 9.92 11,653 9.15 12,029 6.78 14,565 | Total 3/ | 9.90 4/ 128,182 144,352 174,783 | =========================================================================== 1/ Preliminary midmonth price estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1996/97 is for August to current month. 3/ Total volume marketed; 1996/97 is August to current month. 4/ 1996/97 is USDA price range. Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1994/95 to present 1/ =========================================================================== | 1996/97 1995/96 1994/95 Month | -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short =========================================================================== | | $/cwt | August | 7.69 7.84 7.96 7.93 6.22 6.06 5.33 5.64 5.33 September | 7.56 7.81 7.93 8.02 6.30 6.13 5.62 5.67 5.36 October | 7.39 7.73 7.85 8.81 6.67 6.51 5.74 5.61 5.32 November | 7.09 7.58 7.70 8.47 6.82 6.63 5.85 5.59 5.31 December | 7.15 7.63 7.74 8.17 7.16 6.95 5.82 5.59 5.31 January | 7.41 7.65 7.78 8.11 7.19 7.13 6.21 5.62 5.58 February | 7.47 7.57 7.75 7.90 7.49 7.67 6.41 5.70 5.66 March | 7.18 7.49 7.67 7.97 7.38 7.55 6.41 5.74 5.70 April | 6.91 7.16 7.33 7.68 7.25 7.42 6.41 5.74 5.70 May | 8.11 7.14 7.29 7.38 7.17 7.35 6.56 5.87 5.82 June | 8.23 7.04 7.18 7.64 7.42 7.60 7.38 6.03 6.00 July | 8.30 7.07 7.21 2/ 7.79 7.82 8.01 7.63 6.10 6.06 | Average 3/| 7.54 7.48 7.62 2/ 7.99 7.07 7.08 6.28 5.74 5.59 =========================================================================== 1/ Loan rate basis (rough); the repayment rate was the lower of the loan level for the crop or the higher of the prevailing world market price or the minimum repayment level. For the 1989 through 1995 crops, the minimum loan repayment levels were 70 percent of the loan level. The minimum loan repayment level has been eliminated for 1996-crop loans, and loans are repayable at the lower of the loan level or the prevailing world price. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1991/92 to present 1/ =============================================================================== | 1996/97| 1995/96 | Country |--------|-------- 1995/96| 1994/95 1993/94 1992/93 1991/92 or | as of | as of | region |07/03/97|07/03/96 Final | Final Final Final Final =========================================================================== 1,000 metric tons European Union | 396 | 444 452 | 503 362 362 263 Other Western Europe | 16 | 19 19 | 42 18 47 44 Turkey | 215 | 187 187 | 279 67 191 154 Eastern Europe | 4 | 34 34 | 63 10 46 39 Former Soviet Union | 23 | 37 37 | 19 4 15 42 | | | Japan | 214 | 192 192 | 2 568 0 0 | | | OTHER ASIA AND | | | THE MIDDLE EAST | 314 | 354 365 | 612 349 438 228 Iran | 0 | 72 72 | 262 121 130 7 Iraq | 0 | 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 Saudi Arabia | 169 | 142 144 | 165 157 205 146 Jordan | 56 | 22 22 | 62 1 33 18 Syria | 24 | 1 1 | 28 0 0 0 | | | AFRICA | 204 | 341 346 | 307 258 315 244 Cote d'Ivoire | 31 | 82 82 | 77 67 92 56 Republic of | | | South Africa | 114 | 164 164 | 115 90 111 103 | | | WESTERN HEMISPHERE | 938 | 987 1,044 | 1,617 513 663 771 Canada | 115 | 111 116 | 139 91 98 88 Mexico | 308 | 299 318 | 327 177 249 118 Haiti | 86 | 113 121 | 153 43 117 97 Jamaica | 28 | 80 80 | 80 63 30 56 Costa Rica | 55 | 110 110 | 65 46 18 49 Colombia | 34 | 28 28 | 0 0 0 8 | | | Total | 2,325 | 2,344 2,678 | 3,426 2,149 2,075 1,783 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | | Census Bureau 2/ |2,520 4/| 2,690 | 3,601 2,625 2,555 2,241 Difference 3/ | 318 5/| 12 | 175 476 480 458 =========================================================================== Note: The "U.S. Export Sales" reports sales and shipments in product weight. The milled equivalent total may vary significantly from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales," FAS, USDA. Columns labeled "as of" represent combined exports plus sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census Bureau rice export total (reported on a product-weight basis) is the official export total. 3/ The "U.S. Export Sales" report does not include U.S. Government exports under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 4/ USDA forecast, milled equivalent basis. 5/ The average difference between exports reported by the U.S. Census Bureau and exports reported in "U.S. Export Sales" for 1991/92-1995/96. Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1988/89 to present =========================================================================== | U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Month | --------------------------- ------------------------------------- or | Long Medium marketing | grain 3/ grain 4/ Parboiled 100% 5% par- 15% 35% A.1 6/ year 1/ | Houston Calif. Houston grade B boiled broken broken special =========================================================================== | | $/metric ton 7/ | 1988/89 | 324 361 386 292 284 275 256 232 1989/90 | 342 352 400 292 259 262 214 172 1990/91 | 331 347 400 296 277 261 213 169 1991/92 | 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 | 322 383 349 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 | 439 451 480 294 244 243 208 160 | Aug '94 | 313 428 353 259 271 237 222 200 Sep '94 | 309 397 344 267 265 246 233 210 Oct '94 | 304 397 331 272 262 249 238 216 Nov '94 | 298 397 331 272 263 249 236 215 Dec '94 | 298 397 331 270 259 250 237 222 Jan '95 | 298 366 331 282 264 265 252 232 Feb '95 | 298 358 342 289 266 270 255 226 Mar '95 | 298 353 342 292 269 272 253 222 Apr '95 | 298 353 342 290 269 271 254 226 May '95 | 311 353 346 299 274 279 262 239 Jun '95 | 358 353 380 333 305 314 297 276 Jul '95 | 392 353 406 353 341 335 321 297 | 1994/95 | 314 375 348 290 276 270 255 232 | Aug '95 | 386 364 419 346 343 327 310 288 Sep '95 | 386 380 424 368 354 346 322 285 Oct '95 | 430 432 485 393 373 372 340 293 Nov '95 | 441 441 463 354 342 334 315 296 Dec '95 | 419 496 463 347 337 326 307 278 Jan '96 | 410 507 454 372 355 350 321 271 Feb '96 | 402 474 449 377 357 348 307 256 Mar '96 | 397 463 441 373 350 344 301 260 Apr '96 | 406 459 454 342 316 310 272 245 May '96 | 430 441 471 347 318 312 272 244 Jun '96 | 430 441 474 360 339 322 275 240 Jul '96 | 430 441 474 370 347 335 281 229 | 1995/96 | 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 | Aug '96 | 446 441 491 346 330 314 265 213 Sep '96 | 452 441 478 341 331 311 264 216 Oct '96 | 449 433 474 324 330 293 250 208 Nov '96 | 438 430 463 325 327 293 248 206 Dec '96 | 430 430 463 330 325 298 253 205 Jan '97 | 435 424 474 367 334 332 277 218 Feb '97 | 455 402 485 359 321 320 270 226 Mar '97 | 463 397 485 341 315 302 261 231 Apr '97 | 463 397 485 319 301 285 252 220 May '97 | 463 397 485 335 315 300 257 215 Jun '97 | 463 397 485 335 324 299 255 221 Jul '97 8/| 463 397 485 335 333 301 264 212 | 1996/97 8/| 452 415 479 338 324 304 260 216 ========================================================= 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ 100 percent broken. 7/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 8/ Preliminary. Table 6 - U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1991/92 to present 1/ =========================================================================== | | 1996/97 1997/98 Item | 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96| 2/ 3/ =========================================================================== | | LONG-GRAIN | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.113 2.408 2.102 2.410 2.335 | 1.980 Harvested | 2.023 2.372 2.028 2.379 2.312 | 1.964 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 5,395 5,397 5,082 5,609 5,265 | 5,777 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.4 | 10.1 9.1 Production | 109.1 128.0 103.1 133.4 121.7 | 113.5 120.5 Imports | 4.7 5.4 6.2 6.0 6.3 | 10.0 10.0 Total supply | 125.4 146.4 130.9 154.5 142.4 | 133.6 139.6 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 61.4 60.8 67.2 60.3 66.7 | 65.5 67.8 Exports | 51.0 64.0 48.6 79.8 65.6 | 59.0 61.0 Total use | 112.4 124.8 115.8 140.1 132.3 | 124.5 128.8 | | Ending stocks | 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.4 10.1 | 9.1 10.8 | | | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 11.6 17.3 13.0 10.3 7.6 | 7.3 8.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN | | Million acres | | | Planted | 0.771 0.768 0.818 0.943 0.786 | .839 Harvested | 0.758 0.760 0.805 0.937 0.781 | .835 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 6,627 6,795 6,590 6,866 6,676 | 6,929 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 | 14.3 14.2 Production | 50.2 51.6 53.0 64.3 52.1 | 57.9 55.5 Imports | 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.2 | 1.0 1.0 Total supply | 62.4 64.8 70.9 75.0 69.5 | 73.2 70.7 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 34.1 35.9 34.3 39.6 37.8 | 41.0 40.6 Exports | 15.4 13.0 26.6 19.6 17.4 | 18.0 18.0 Total use | 49.5 48.9 60.9 59.2 55.3 | 59.0 58.6 | | Ending stocks | 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 14.3 | 14.2 12.1 | | | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 26.1 32.4 16.4 26.7 25.9 | 24.0 20.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | Million hundredweight | Ending stocks | | difference 1/ | 1.4 2.0 0.7 1.1 0.6 | 0.6 0.6 =========================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the stock total for all types of rice in table 1. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. END_OF_FILE