RICE OUTLOOK August 13, 1997 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued electronically once a month by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. No printed copies available. RCS-0897. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o The 1997 U.S. rice crop is projected at 182 million cwt, up 3 percent from last month's projection and 6 percent larger than the 1996 crop. o The first objective yield estimate for the 1997 crop is 5,994 pounds per acre, up 3 percent from last month's projection, and second only to 1996's record 6,121. o The 1997/98 season average farm price is projected to be $9.25 to $10.25 per cwt, up 25 cents on both the high and low end of last month's forecast range, with the midpoint 15 cents below 1996/97's average price of $9.90. o U.S. exports for 1997/98 are projected to be 82 million cwt, up 3 million from last month's projection and 6 million above 1996/97. o U.S. ending stocks for 1997/98 are projected at 24 million cwt, slightly above month's projection and nearly the same as 1996/97. HIGHER YIELD ESTIMATE BOOSTS 1997 U.S. CROP PROJECTION The 1997/98 U.S. rough rice crop is pegged at 182 million hundredweight (cwt), up more than 3 percent from last month's projection and over 6 percent larger than 1996's crop. This year's crop would be the third largest on record after 197.8 million in 1994/95 and 182.7 million in 1981/82. The month-to-month revision is due to a 3.4 percent increase in the estimated yield to 5,994 pounds per acre--the first objective yield estimate for the 1997 crop. While down 2 percent from 1996's record 6,121 pounds, the 1997 yield would be the second highest yield on record. This year's strong yield is due to very favorable weather throughout the growing season in California and no major disease problems as of yet in the South despite late planting in Texas and delayed emergence in much of the Delta. The decline from 1996's record yield is partly due to a shift in share of planted acreage from the high yielding California medium grain rice to the lower yielding southern long grain. The year-to-year increase in crop size results from increased planted area. The June Acreage reported total planted area up 246,000 acres--nearly 9 percent--from 1996. The expansion is due to strong rice prices at planting, compared to both historic rice prices and prices for alternative crops, primarily soybeans, in the South. Long grain was reported up 303,000 acres--or over 15 percent--from 1996 and medium grain down--62,000--or 7.5 percent. In the South, long grain plantings rose 302,000 acres while medium grain area dropped 69,000. Higher prices for long grain rice--grown almost exclusively in the South--than for medium grain, and short supplies account for the area increase and shift to southern long grain rice. California has a projected yield of 8,200 pounds per acre, up over 9 percent from 1996 but still below the record 8,500 achieved in 1994 and 1992. California's 1996 crop was plagued by blanking--incomplete filling of the kernel--blast, and weeds. Arkansas--which produces over 40 percent of the U.S. crop--has an estimated yield of 5,850 pounds. This is the second highest on record for the State and would be about 5 percent below last year's record. Louisiana is projected to achieve an average yield of 4,800 pounds per acre, down 70 pounds from last year's record. Louisiana is a low yielding State due to higher incidence of disease and problems with weeds and Black Birds. The average yield in Mississippi is projected to be 5,500 pounds, 500 pounds below last year's record. Missouri--the smallest rice producing state--has a projected yield of 5,400 pounds, down almost 3 percent from its 1996 record. Texas, which experienced extremely late plantings, is projected to achieve a yield of 5,700 pounds, down 8 percent from last year's record. Late plantings are typically associated with more disease, weed, and insect problems than early planted rice. In addition, few Texas producers will be able to harvest a "ratoon" or partial second crop due to the cold wet spring weather that caused the late plantings. Typically, 40 to 45 percent of Texas producers harvest a ratoon crop. This year, no more than 10 percent were able to plant early enough to harvest a ratoon crop. All States except Texas reported greater area in 1997 than in 1996, with Arkansas plantings up 170,000 acres, Mississippi up 60,000, Louisiana up 35,000, and Missouri up 8,000 acres. All of the expansion in Arkansas was for long grain--a 220,000-acre increase--while medium grain fell 50,000 acres. Similarly, Louisiana's long grain expanded 50,000 acres while the State's medium grain dropped 15,000 acres. Mississippi grows only long grain rice. Texas area was reported down 40,000 acres--or over 13 percent--from 1996, with long grain down 35,000 and medium down 5,000. This continues a long decline in Texas rice plantings that began after the early 1980's when area exceeded 500,000 acres. California--which posted a 2.6-percent increase in total rice area to 515,000 acres--was the only State to report a significant increase in medium grain plantings in 1997, up more than 1 percent from 1996. Medium grain accounts for over 95 percent of California's rice production. Medium grain area was reported at 1,000 acres in Missouri, up from zero in 1995 and 1996. Short grain area was also up in California, rising 5,000 acres to 18,000 and accounting for 90 percent of U.S. short grain acreage. Arkansas is the only other State to produce short grain rice, and its area has been stable at about 2,000 acres since 1994. All States except Texas are projected to produce larger crops in 1997 than last year. The California crop is pegged at a record 42 million cwt, up over 12 percent from last year. Arkansas is projected to produce 78.2 million cwt crop, up almost 9 percent. Mississippi's crop is projected at 14.7 million cwt, up 18 percent from last year, and Louisiana's crop is projected at 27.1 million cwt, up over 4 percent from 1996. Missouri's crop is projected at 5.1 million tons, up almost 3 percent. The Texas crop is projected to drop 20 percent to 14.8 million cwt, the smallest since 1983. Total U.S. supplies for 1997/98 are projected at 215.9 million cwt, up over 2 percent from last month's projection and 4 percent above a year earlier. Imports are revised down 1 million cwt to 10 million--unchanged from 1996/97--in light of the larger crop and supply forecasts. Carryin stocks for 1997/98 are projected at 23.9 million cwt, down over 4 percent from 1996/97. Harvest of the 1997 crop began in the latter part of July, about 2 weeks later than typical due to the delayed planting in Texas. In fact, the harvest actually began in Louisiana, which typically follows Texas. By August 10, only 1 percent of the Texas crop had been harvested, well below the 22 percent average. The harvest in Louisiana--which also experienced excessive rain in the spring--is also behind, with 20 percent harvested by August 10, below the 5-year average of 27 percent. Because producers in Southwest Louisiana seed in water, the excessive rain did not hinder the crop as much as in Texas where producers typically dryseed. Harvest has not begun in the other States. Development of the remaining crop is behind normal in the South. By August 10, just over half of the crop had headed in Arkansas, below the 5-year average of 69 percent, the result of the cold spring in the Delta. In Texas, 82 percent of the crop had headed--below the 90 percent average. And the Louisiana crop, typically 84 percent headed, was 79 percent headed. Headings in Mississippi were near their 5-year average. In contrast to the South, planting and emergence are well ahead of their 5-year average in California. By August 10, 65 percent of the crop had emerged, substantially higher than the 5-year average of 26 percent. Early developing crops tend to bode well for yields. U.S. EXPORTS PROJECTED TO EXPAND IN 1997/98 U.S. rice use is projected at 191.9 million cwt in 1997/98, up over 2 percent from last month and almost 5 percent higher than a year earlier. Both domestic use and exports were raised. Food use was raised almost 2 percent from last month to 83 million cwt, closer to growth rates achieved in prior years of the decade. Exports are projected at 82 million cwt, up nearly 4 percent from last month's projection and exceeding 1996/97 by 8 percent. Ending stocks are projected to be almost 24 million cwt, up 2 percent from last month's forecast--a result of the higher projected crop--but down 100,000 cwt from a year earlier as the larger crop was offset by greater total use. The stocks-to-use ratio for 1997/98 is projected to be 12.5 percent, identical to last month's projection, but below the 13.3 and 13.1 percent achieved in 1995/96 and 1996/97. The 1997/98 stocks and stocks- to-use ratio would be the lowest since 1980/81. A breakdown of crop by grain type indicates a long grain crop of 127.3 million cwt, up over 12 percent from 1996/97. Combined medium and short grain production, projected at 54.8 million cwt, is down over 1 percent from last month's projection and down over 5 percent from 1996. All of the medium grain decline is in the South. Long grain exports are projected at 64 million cwt, up 5 percent from last month's forecast and 10 percent higher than 1996/97--a result of larger projected supplies. Long grain domestic use is projected at 68.8 million cwt, up 5 percent from 1996/97. Medium grain domestic use is expected to remain essentially unchanged from 1996/97 at 41.1 million cwt. For 1996/97, U.S. rice imports were revised downward 9 percent to 10 million cwt based on the pace of arrivals to date. Imports are still record high and are up 34 percent from 1995/96. Exports were revised downward 1 million cwt to 76 million based on the pace of shipments to date. This is an 8-percent drop from 1995/96. FARM PRICES TO REMAIN HIGH IN 1997/98 The 1997/98 (August-July) season average farm price (SAFP) is projected to be $9.25 to $10.25 per cwt, up 25 cents on both the high and low end from last month's projection, with the midpoint 15 cents below 1996/97's projected price of $9.90. The month-to- month projected price increase was due to continued high monthly farm prices and continued tight supplies. The $9.90 projection for 1996/97 is up over 8 percent from 1995/96, and would be the highest since 1980/81. Farm prices are likely to remain firm through the 1997/98 marketing year due to expectations of relatively strong export demand for high-quality U.S. long grain rice, steadily rising domestic food use, and continued tight supplies of U.S. long grain rice. U.S. farm level rice prices have averaged over $10.05 a cwt since January 1997 and have remained strong through the first half of July. Last month, USDA estimated July's midmonth price at $10.10 per cwt and lowered June's to $9.88 from a preliminary $9.97 per cwt. The June midmonth drop in cash prices is partially due to the small supplies of high quality long grain rice available for sale to mills: Thus lower priced medium grain rice made up a larger share of sales. The weighted average for the year is a preliminary $9.91 per cwt, virtually equal the season-average projected price. U.S. rice exports and sales commitments were 9.6 percent behind last year's pace through the end of the 1996/97 market year, according to the U.S. Export Sales report of August 7, 1997. Primary destinations have been the EU, Mexico, Japan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Haiti, Colombia, South Africa, and Jordan. INTERNATIONAL PRICES SLIDE International prices for most grades of rice have dropped slightly in late July and early August, a result little export activity. Prices did rise slightly in late June on expanded export activity and the devaluation of the Thai baht. They then dropped in early July in the face of little new export activity and the adjustment of the market to the new exchange rate. Offer quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) have averaged $303 per ton thus far in August, down from $332 in July and $335 in May and June. Thai prices had risen in late June to as high as $346 due to purchases by Japan, Nigeria, and Iran. But since late July Nigeria and Iran have been Thailand's only major buyers. Prices for most grades of Thai rice strengthened slightly the second week of August with the arrival of Iranian and Nigerian vessels. Strong world demand for limited supplies of exportable high-quality long grain rice will likely limit any drop in trading prices in 1997/98. In contrast, Vietnam, a major competitor of Thailand, raised prices for its rice in May and June in response to very strong export demand and has yet to significantly cut prices. Vietnam reported exporting 1 million tons of rice from May 1 to June 30, a record pace for the country. Vietnam is currently pricing its rice $40 to $50 a ton below Thai rice of similar quality. Prices for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice--No. 2, 4-percent brokens, offer quotes f.o.b. Houston--declined to $441 per ton in mid-July after remaining at $463 since mid-February. The price has remained at $441 through mid-August. For the 1996/97 market year, the season average price for this grade of rice was $446 per ton. If realized, it would be the highest price for this grade since 1981/82. The estimated U.S. price premium over Thai rice is currently $138 a ton, up from $114 in July as the Thai price has fallen more than the U.S. price. Several years ago, U.S. rice had been viewed as competitive in world markets with a premium of $30-$50 over Thai rice. However, in recent years this level has likely risen due to some shifting of the U.S. export market to the Western Hemisphere and limited world supplies of high-quality long grain rice. Prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, f.o.b.) have remained at $397 a ton since mid-February after dropping from $419 in early February and from $430 in mid-January. The decline was primarily due to an 11-percent increase in the 1996 U.S. medium grain crop from a year earlier and only a small increase in exports. The Australian harvest of a record medium grain crop this year has also pressured global medium grain prices. So far in 1996/97 there has not been much export activity beyond Japan's minimum access purchases --which were completed in January--and sales to regular medium grain buyers, such as Turkey which has purchased mostly rough rice. Japan's minimum access purchases are scheduled to increase in 1997/98 (April-March) to 531,000 metric tons (brown rice basis), likely adding strength to California medium grain prices. Except for a small increase in late June resulting from greater demand for Thai rice, prices for lower quality rice have essentially slipped since March. Quotes for A.1 Special (100 percent brokens, f.o.b. Bangkok) have averaged $215 a ton thus far in August, just below July. Weak demand and ample supplies are behind the price slide. GLOBAL PRODUCTION PROJECTED TO DROP IN 1997/98 For 1997/98, world rice production is projected to be 379.3 million tons (milled), just below last month's forecast and down slightly from 1996/97's record 380.7 million tons. Foreign production is projected to be 373.3 million tons, down from 375.1 million in 1996/97, while the U.S. crop is projected to rise over 6 percent to 5.95 million tons. World consumption is projected to be a record 380.5 million tons in 1997/98, 1.2 million tons above production, pulling 1997/98 ending stocks down 2 percent to 53.4 million tons. With global stocks tightening and use rising, the stocks-to-use ratio in 1997/98 drops to 14 percent, down from 14.5 percent 1996/97. The 114,000-ton decrease in 1997/98 world production from last month's projection is primarily due to factors associated with an El Nino this year. An El Nino is the above average warming of the Pacific Ocean that is often associated with floods and droughts in Asia and western South America. The largest revision was for the Thai crop which was lowered to 14 million tons from 14.2 million due to a delayed monsoon that will prevent some plantings of the main season crop. Also, North Korea's crop projection was revised down 110,000 tons to 1.25 million due to severe drought. The drought--which follows 2 consecutive years of flooding--is projected to reduce yields to the lowest levels in nearly 30 years. China accounts for the bulk of the year-to-year drop in projected world production. China's 1997/98 crop is projected at 134 million tons (milled), unchanged from last month but down 2.5 million from the 1996/97 record. A 2-percent drop in projected area is behind the smaller crop. South Korea's crop is projected to drop 8.5 percent from the previous season's bumper crop to 4.9 million tons due to lower yields and a small drop in area. South Korea experienced heavy rain and flooding this summer, requiring some replanting. Brazil's crop is projected to drop 150,000 tons as yields are expected to drop from the 1996/97 record; area is actually forecast to increase. While India's 1997/98 crop projection remains unchanged from last month initial forecast of 81 million tons--a 460,000-ton increase from 1996/97--the actual crop size is dependent on weather patterns for the rest of the year. And critical to this year's crop is the fact that the Southwest Asian monsoon arrived late, with much of India's rice growing area's drier than normal and in need of rainfall. Thailand's crop is projected up 300,000 tons to 14 million, the result of higher yields and a small area increase. As in India, rainfall has been below normal this year. Indonesia's crop is projected at 33.5 million tons, up from 33.2 million in 1996/97. The drier weather over these countries is in part the result of an El Nino and could adversely affect rice crops across most of Southwest and Southeast Asia. All 1997/98 crop forecasts have been made assuming normal weather. For 1996/97, world production is projected at a record 380.7 million tons (milled), down .8 million ton from last month's projection but up over 2 percent from 1995/96. Two factors account for the bulk of the month-to-month revision. First, Indonesia's crop projection was cut 300,000 tons to 33.2 million, virtually unchanged from 1995/96. The monthly revision is due to a drought that has plagued several provinces, including Java and Sumatra--major rice growing areas--during the July-September harvest of the second crop. Second, the Thai crop projection was cut 200,000 tons to 13.7 million due to inadequate rain for the second--or dry season--crop. The year-to-year increase in world production is the result of record crops in several Asian countries and in some smaller, non-Asian countries. China posted the largest year-to-year increase, with a record 136.5-million-tons, up over 5 percent from 1995/96, the result of higher yields and an increase in area. Vietnam, Pakistan, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Australia, Argentina, the European Union, and Uruguay are projected to harvest record crops in 1996/97. Total use for 1996/97 is projected at nearly 376.6 million tons (milled), second only to the record use projected for 1997/98 and up almost 2 percent from 1995/96. With production likely to exceed use, ending stocks are projected to rise 8 percent to almost 54.6 million tons. The 1996/97 stocks-to-use ratio is projected at almost 14.5 percent, above the 13.5 to 13.6 achieved the 2 previous years. GLOBAL TRADE TO RISE IN 1998 Global rice trade is projected at 18.4 million tons (milled) in 1998, down slightly from last month's projection and 475,000 tons higher than this year. Trade in 1998 would be the third highest ever after 1995 and 1996. The month-to-month revision is due to a 250,000 ton drop in Thailand's exports to 5.25 million, a result of the downward revision in crop size. In contrast, U.S. rice exports were revised up 100,000 tons to 2.7 million due to the larger projected 1997/98 U.S. crop. On the import side, Colombia's imports were raised 50,000 tons to 150,000 due to production difficulties. Several major importers are projected to increase rice trade in 1998, with many taking 1 million tons or more. Iran and Brazil are projected to be the largest importers in 1998, at 1.25 million tons each, a 250,000-ton-increase for both. A smaller projected Brazilian crop and no expected expansion in Iran's crop are behind the import growth. China's imports are projected at 1 million tons, up 400,000 based on expectations of larger imports of fragrant Thai rice, which was in short supply in 1997. Indonesia is projected to import 1 million tons in 1998, unchanged from this year, the result of rising use exceeding a small projected expansion in production. The Philippines' imports are projected at 1 million tons, unchanged from 1997 as consumption continues to increase and the government does not want retail food prices to rise and fuel its general inflation rate. Several other countries are expected to import more rice in 1998. Senegal's imports are projected up 100,000 tons from 1997 to 500,000 in response to declining stocks and a drop in imports in 1997. Peru is expected to post a 150,000-ton increase, to 350,000, a result of a smaller 1997/98 crop and a drop in imports in 1997. Smaller 1997/98 crop projections are behind a 50,000-ton increase in the EU's imports to 700,000 and a 50,000-ton-increase in Nigeria's projected imports to 600,000. Japan's and South Korea's imports are expected to rise in 1998 as the WTO mandated minimum access import requirements increase. Rising consumption and flat production are behind a 50,000-ton increase in Malaysia's imports to a projected 600,000 tons. On the export side, Thailand's exports are projected to rebound 450,000 tons from this year to 5.25 million in 1998, primarily the result of a larger crop. Vietnam's exports are projected at 3.5 million tons--a record--and up 250,000 from this year based on expectations of another large crop. India's exports are projected to remain at 1.5 million tons. Pakistan's exports are projected to rise 50,000 tons to 1.7 million. Greater exports from India and Pakistan are the result of larger projected crops for each country. A small increase in U.S. exports to 2.6 million tons is projected, also the result of a larger crop. In contrast, exports from Australia, China, and the EU are expected to decline in 1998, the result of smaller crops. Trade for 1997 was revised up 290,000 tons from last month to 17.58 million. Vietnam's projected exports were raised 250,000 to 3.25 million tons based on the pace of sales during May and June and a larger crop forecast. On the import side, Indonesia's import projection was lowered 250,000 tons to 750,000 in response to a slackening of import activity and a reported build up in stocks. Iraq's projected imports were lowered 150,000 tons to 600,000 based on delays in contract approval. Note: Printed copies of the 1996 Rice Yearbook are available. To order, call 1-800-999-6779. *********************************************************************************** INFORMATION CONTACT AT THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE: Nathan Childs (202) 501-8513 Next month's Rice Outlook will be available on September 15, 1997. *********************************************************************************** Note: Detailed 1997/98 foreign supply and use forecasts are published on August 14, in the Foreign Agricultural Service's Grain: World Markets and Trade. Tables: Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1991/92 to present Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1995/96 to present Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1994/95 to present Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1991/92 to present Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1990/91 to present Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1991/92 to present Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1991/92 to present 1/ =========================================================================== | | 1996/97 1997/98 Item | 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 | 2/ 3/ =========================================================================== | | TOTAL RICE | Percent | | | | | ARP | 5 0 5 0 5 | N/A N/A | | Area | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.884 3.176 2.920 3.353 3.121 | 2.819 3.065 Harvested | 2.781 3.132 2.833 3.316 3.093 | 2.799 3.037 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 5,731 5,736 5,510 5,964 5,621 | 6,121 5,994 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.3 | 25.0 23.9 Production | 159.4 179.7 156.1 197.8 173.9 | 171.3 182.0 Imports | 5.3 6.1 6.9 7.0 7.4 | 10.0 10.0 Total supply | 189.3 213.2 202.5 230.6 212.6 | 206.4 215.9 | | Food | 67.1 69.0 71.2 74.0 77.0 | 80.0 83.0 Seed | 4.1 3.8 4.3 4.1 3.7 | 4.0 4.0 Brewers' use | 15.4 15.1 14.3 14.5 15.6 | 15.4 15.4 Residual 4/ | 8.8 8.8 11.7 7.4 8.3 | 7.1 7.5 Domestic use | 95.5 96.7 101.5 99.9 104.5 | 106.5 109.9 | | Exports | 66.4 77.0 75.2 99.4 83.0 | 76.0 82.0 Rough | 6.3 5.1 3.6 18.2 10.8 | 12.5 14.0 Milled 5/ | 60.1 71.9 71.5 81.2 72.2 | 63.5 68.0 Total use | 161.9 173.7 176.7 199.3 187.6 | 182.5 191.9 | | Ending | | stocks | 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.3 25.0 | 23.9 24.0 CCC stocks | 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 Free stocks | 27.0 39.3 25.8 31.2 25.0 | 23.9 24.0 | | | Percent | | | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 16.9 22.7 14.6 15.7 13.3 | 13.1 12.5 | | | $/cwt | $9.25 Average farm | | to price 6/ | $7.58 $5.89 $7.98 $6.78 $9.15 | 9.90 $10.25 | | | Percent | Average | | milling rate | 70.5 70.0 74.0 74.1 71.4 | 72.0 72.0 ===========================================================================N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Marketing year weighted average price received by farmers. Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1994/95 to present =========================================================================== | 1996/97 1995/96 1994/95 | --------------------- ------------------- ------------------- Month | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt =========================================================================== | August | 9.99 10,520 7.64 9,935 6.87 11,534 September | 9.95 13,478 7.95 12,010 6.89 12,610 October | 9.75 11,988 8.77 12,493 6.47 13,381 November | 9.36 11,768 9.12 12,951 6.53 15,470 December | 9.63 12,758 9.36 12,503 6.56 17,479 January | 9.87 15,927 9.33 13,130 6.78 17,781 February | 10.10 12,086 9.10 11,898 6.71 16,050 March | 10.20 10,133 9.31 14,690 6.64 17,565 April | 10.20 9,902 9.34 13,562 6.70 12,425 May | 10.10 7,969 9.69 11,538 6.75 16,848 June | 9.88 7,092 9.74 9,500 7.03 13,793 July | 10.10 1/ 11,238 1/ 9.68 10,142 7.17 9,847 | Average 2/ | 9.91 134,859 9.15 12,029 6.78 14,565 | Total 3/ | 9.90 4/ 11,238 144,352 174,783 | =========================================================================== 1/ Preliminary midmonth price estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1996/97 is for August to current month. 3/ Total volume marketed; 1996/97 is August to current month. 4/ 1996/97 is USDA price range. Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1995/96 to present 1/ =========================================================================== | 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 Month | -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short =========================================================================== | | $/cwt | August | 8.39 7.19 7.32 2/ 7.69 7.84 7.96 7.93 6.22 6.06 September | 7.56 7.81 7.93 8.02 6.30 6.13 October | 7.39 7.73 7.85 8.81 6.67 6.51 November | 7.09 7.58 7.70 8.47 6.82 6.63 December | 7.15 7.63 7.74 8.17 7.16 6.95 January | 7.41 7.65 7.78 8.11 7.19 7.13 February | 7.47 7.57 7.75 7.90 7.49 7.67 March | 7.18 7.49 7.67 7.97 7.38 7.55 April | 6.91 7.16 7.33 7.68 7.25 7.42 May | 8.11 7.14 7.29 7.38 7.17 7.35 June | 8.23 7.04 7.18 7.64 7.42 7.60 July | 8.30 6.88 7.01 7.79 7.82 8.01 | Average 3/| 8.39 7.19 7.32 2/ 7.54 7.46 7.60 7.99 7.07 7.08 ===========================================================================1/ Loan rate basis (rough); the repayment rate was the lower of the loan level for the crop or the higher of the prevailing world market price or the minimum repayment level. For the 1989 through 1995 crops, the minimum loan repayment levels were 70 percent of the loan level. The minimum loan repayment level has been eliminated for 1996-crop loans, and loans are repayable at the lower of the loan level or the prevailing world price. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1991/92 to present 1/ =========================================================================== | 1996/97| 1995/96 | Country |--------|-------- 1995/96| 1994/95 1993/94 1992/93 1991/92 or | as of | as of | region |07/31/97|07/31/96 Final | Final Final Final Final =========================================================================== 1,000 metric tons European Union | 354 | 452 452 | 503 362 362 263 Other Western Europe | 16 | 19 19 | 42 18 47 44 Turkey | 215 | 187 187 | 279 67 191 154 Eastern Europe | 4 | 34 34 | 63 10 46 39 Former Soviet Union | 23 | 37 37 | 19 4 15 42 | | | Japan | 214 | 192 192 | 2 568 0 0 | | | OTHER ASIA AND | | | THE MIDDLE EAST | 316 | 365 365 | 612 349 438 228 Iran | 0 | 72 72 | 262 121 130 7 Iraq | 0 | 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 Saudi Arabia | 168 | 144 144 | 165 157 205 146 Jordan | 56 | 22 22 | 62 1 33 18 Syria | 25 | 1 1 | 28 0 0 0 | | | AFRICA | 205 | 346 346 | 307 258 315 244 Cote d'Ivoire | 31 | 82 82 | 77 67 92 56 Republic of | | | South Africa | 114 | 164 164 | 115 90 111 103 | | | WESTERN HEMISPHERE | 972 | 1,044 1,044 | 1,617 513 663 771 Canada | 117 | 116 116 | 139 91 98 88 Mexico | 322 | 320 320 | 327 177 249 118 Haiti | 86 | 121 121 | 153 43 117 97 Jamaica | 28 | 80 80 | 80 63 30 56 Costa Rica | 55 | 110 110 | 65 46 18 49 Colombia | 34 | 28 28 | 0 0 0 8 | | | Total | 2,319 | 2,564 2,564 | 3,201 2,149 2,075 1,783 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | | Census Bureau 2/ |2,520 4/| 2,688 | 3,324 2,525 2,442 2,123 Difference 3/ | 266 5/| 124 | 123 376 367 340 ===========================================================================Note: The "U.S. Export Sales" reports sales and shipments in product weight. The milled equivalent total may vary significantly from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales," FAS, USDA. Columns labeled "as of" represent combined exports plus sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census Bureau rice export total (reported on a product-weight basis) is the official export total. 3/ The "U.S. Export Sales" report does not include U.S. Government exports under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 4/ USDA forecast, milled equivalent basis. 5/ The average difference between exports reported by the U.S. Census Bureau and exports reported in "U.S. Export Sales" for 1991/92-1995/96. Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1990/91 to present =========================================================================== | U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Month | --------------------------- ------------------------------------- or | Long Medium marketing | grain 3/ grain 4/ Parboiled 100% 5% par- 15% 35% A.1 6/ year 1/ | Houston Calif. Houston grade B boiled broken broken special =========================================================================== | | $/metric ton 7/ | 1990/91 | 331 347 400 296 277 261 213 169 1991/92 | 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 | 322 383 349 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 | 439 451 480 294 244 243 208 160 | Aug '94 | 313 428 353 259 271 237 222 200 Sep '94 | 309 397 344 267 265 246 233 210 Oct '94 | 304 397 331 272 262 249 238 216 Nov '94 | 298 397 331 272 263 249 236 215 Dec '94 | 298 397 331 270 259 250 237 222 Jan '95 | 298 366 331 282 264 265 252 232 Feb '95 | 298 358 342 289 266 270 255 226 Mar '95 | 298 353 342 292 269 272 253 222 Apr '95 | 298 353 342 290 269 271 254 226 May '95 | 311 353 346 299 274 279 262 239 Jun '95 | 358 353 380 333 305 314 297 276 Jul '95 | 392 353 406 353 341 335 321 297 | 1994/95 | 314 375 348 290 276 270 255 232 | Aug '95 | 386 364 419 346 343 327 310 288 Sep '95 | 386 380 424 368 354 346 322 285 Oct '95 | 430 432 485 393 373 372 340 293 Nov '95 | 441 441 463 354 342 334 315 296 Dec '95 | 419 496 463 347 337 326 307 278 Jan '96 | 410 507 454 372 355 350 321 271 Feb '96 | 402 474 449 377 357 348 307 256 Mar '96 | 397 463 441 373 350 344 301 260 Apr '96 | 406 459 454 342 316 310 272 245 May '96 | 430 441 471 347 318 312 272 244 Jun '96 | 430 441 474 360 339 322 275 240 Jul '96 | 430 441 474 370 347 335 281 229 | 1995/96 | 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 | Aug '96 | 446 441 491 346 330 314 265 213 Sep '96 | 452 441 478 341 331 311 264 216 Oct '96 | 449 433 474 324 330 293 250 208 Nov '96 | 438 430 463 325 327 293 248 206 Dec '96 | 430 430 463 330 325 298 253 205 Jan '97 | 435 424 474 367 334 332 277 218 Feb '97 | 455 402 485 359 321 320 270 226 Mar '97 | 463 397 485 341 315 302 261 231 Apr '97 | 463 397 485 319 301 285 252 220 May '97 | 463 397 485 335 315 300 257 215 Jun '97 | 463 397 485 335 324 299 255 221 Jul '97 | 446 397 485 332 327 296 256 215 | 1996/97 | 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 | Aug '97 8/| 441 397 485 303 321 272 242 214 | 1997/98 8/| 441 397 485 303 321 272 242 214 ========================================================================== 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ 100 percent broken. 7/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 8/ Preliminary. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1991/92 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | | 1996/97 1997/98 Item | 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96| 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== | | LONG-GRAIN | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.113 2.408 2.102 2.410 2.335 | 1.980 Harvested | 2.023 2.372 2.028 2.379 2.312 | 1.964 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 5,395 5,397 5,082 5,609 5,265 | 5,777 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.4 | 10.1 9.1 Production | 109.1 128.0 103.1 133.4 121.7 | 113.5 127.3 Imports | 4.7 5.4 6.2 6.0 6.3 | 9.0 9.0 Total supply | 125.4 146.4 130.9 154.5 142.4 | 132.6 145.4 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 61.4 60.8 67.2 60.3 66.7 | 65.5 68.8 Exports | 51.0 64.0 48.6 79.8 65.6 | 58.0 64.0 Total use | 112.4 124.8 115.8 140.1 132.3 | 123.5 132.8 | | Ending stocks | 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.4 10.1 | 9.1 12.6 | | | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 11.6 17.3 13.0 10.3 7.6 | 7.4 9.5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN | | Million acres | | | Planted | 0.771 0.768 0.818 0.943 0.786 | .839 Harvested | 0.758 0.760 0.805 0.937 0.781 | .835 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 6,627 6,795 6,590 6,866 6,676 | 6,929 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 | 14.3 14.2 Production | 50.2 51.6 53.0 64.3 52.1 | 57.9 54.8 Imports | 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.2 | 1.0 1.0 Total supply | 62.4 64.8 70.9 75.0 69.5 | 73.2 69.9 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 34.1 35.9 34.3 39.6 37.8 | 41.0 41.1 Exports | 15.4 13.0 26.6 19.6 17.4 | 18.0 18.0 Total use | 49.5 48.9 60.9 59.2 55.3 | 59.0 59.1 | | Ending stocks | 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 14.3 | 14.2 10.8 | | | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 26.1 32.4 16.4 26.7 25.9 | 24.0 18.3 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | Million hundredweight | Ending stocks | | difference 1/ | 1.4 2.0 0.7 1.1 0.6 | 0.6 0.6 ========================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the stock total for all types of rice in table 1. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. END_OF_FILE