RICE OUTLOOK September 15, 1997 September 1997, RCS-0997 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued electronically once a month by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. No published copies are available. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o The 1997 U.S. rice crop is projected at 181.5 million cwt, just below last month's projection and almost 6 percent larger than the 1996 crop. o The 1997 yield is estimated at 5,975 pounds per acre, just below last month's projection, and second only to 1996's record 6,121. o The 1997/98 season average farm price is projected to be $9 to $10 per cwt, down 25 cents on both the high and low end of last month's forecast range, with the midpoint 40 cents below 1996/97's average price of $9.90. o U.S. exports for 1997/98 are projected to be 85 million cwt, up 3 million from last month's projection and 10 million above 1996/97's revised exports. o U.S. ending stocks for 1996/97 were 27.1 million cwt, up over 3.2 million from last month's projection and over 2 million higher than a year earlier. HIGHER STOCK ESTIMATE BOOSTS 1997/98 U.S. SUPPLIES U.S. 1997/98 rice supplies are projected slightly higher this month because of increased beginning stocks. The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported August 1 U.S. rice stocks at 27.1 million cwt--up 3.2 million from last month's projection--boosting 1997/98 U.S. supplies. The revision raised long grain beginning stocks almost 5 million cwt to 14.1 million cwt and lowered medium grain stocks 2 million cwt to 12.1 million. Total beginning stocks are up almost 2.1 million cwt from a year earlier. The 1997 U.S. rough rice crop is pegged at 181.5 million hundredweight (cwt), just below last month's projection and nearly 6 percent larger than 1996's crop. This year's crop would be the third largest on record after 197.8 million in 1994 and 182.7 million in 1981. The 1997 yield is estimated at 5,975 pounds per acre, 19 pounds below last month's forecast and more than 2 percent below 1996's record 6,121 pounds. The 1997 yield would be the second highest on record. This year's strong yield is due to very favorable weather throughout the growing season in California and no major disease problems as of yet in the South despite late planting in Texas and delayed emergence and harvest in much of the Delta. The decline from 1996's record yield is partly due to a shift in share of planted acreage from the high yielding California medium grain rice to the lower yielding southern long grain. The year-to-year increase in crop size results from increased planted area. The June Acreage report indicated total planted area up 246,000 acres--nearly 9 percent--from 1996. Long grain was reported up 303,000 acres--or over 15 percent--from 1996 and medium grain down--62,000--or 7.5 percent. All of the drop in medium grain area was in the South. California medium grain area was reported up 7,000 acres--or just over 1 percent from 1996. In the South, long grain plantings rose 302,000 acres while medium grain area dropped 69,000. California has a projected yield of 8,200 pounds per acre, up over 9 percent from 1996, but still below the record 8,500 achieved in 1991, 1992, and 1994. A cooler than typical season this year in California has been beneficial to yields. Arkansas --which produces over 40 percent of the U.S. crop--has an estimated yield of 5,850 pounds. This is the second highest on record for the State and would be about 5 percent below last year's record. Louisiana is projected to achieve an average yield of 4,650 pounds per acre, down 150 pounds from last month's estimate and 220 pounds below last year's record. Louisiana was the only State whose yield was reduced from last month's estimate. Louisiana is a low yielding State due to higher incidence of disease and problems with weeds and blackbirds. The average yield in Mississippi is projected to be 5,600 pounds, up 100 pounds from last month's estimate but 400 pounds below 1996's record. Missouri--the smallest rice producing state--has a projected yield of 5,400 pounds, down almost 3 percent from its 1996 record. Texas, which experienced extremely late plantings, is projected to achieve a yield of 5,700 pounds, down 8 percent from last year's record. Late plantings are typically associated with more disease, weed, and insect problems than early planted rice. In addition, few Texas producers will be able to harvest a "ratoon" or partial second crop due to the cold wet spring weather that caused the late plantings. Typically, 40 to 45 percent of Texas producers harvest a ratoon crop. This year, no more than 10 percent were able to plant early enough to harvest a ratoon crop. All States except Texas are projected to produce larger crops in 1997 than last year. The California crop is pegged at a record 42 million cwt, up over 12 percent from last year. Arkansas is projected to produce a 78.2 million cwt crop, up almost 9 percent from last year but still below the State' 1994 record of 80.9 million cwt. Mississippi's crop is projected at 15 million cwt, up 20 percent from last year, and Louisiana's crop is projected at 26.3 million cwt, up 1 percent. Missouri's crop is projected at 5.1 million tons, up almost 3 percent. The Texas crop is projected to drop 20 percent to 14.8 million cwt, the smallest since 1983. Harvest of the 1997 crop began in the latter part of July, about 2 weeks later than typical due to the delayed planting in Texas. In fact, the harvest actually began in Louisiana, which typically follows Texas. By September 7, 50 percent of the Texas crop had been harvested, well below the 5-year average of 69 percent. A cold spring delayed the harvest in much of the Delta. In Arkansas, the harvest was 5 percent complete by September 7, compared with an average of 14 percent. In Mississippi, the harvest was 12 percent complete, just half the 5-year average of 24 percent. The harvest in Louisiana--which like Texas experienced excessive spring rains--was nearly three-fourths complete, slightly ahead of its 5-year average. Because producers in Southwest Louisiana seed in water, the excessive rain did not hinder the crop as much as in Texas where producers typically dryseed. In contrast to the South, harvesting is well ahead of its 5-year average in California. By September 7, a date typically ahead of the start of harvest in California, 15 percent of the crop had been harvested. Early developing crops tend to bode well for yields. Total U.S. supplies for 1997/98 are projected at almost 218.6 million cwt, up over 1 percent from last month's projection and 6 percent above a year earlier. NASS reported August 1 stocks of 27.1 million cwt, up 3.2 million from last month's projection and up almost 2.1 million from 1996/97. Imports remain projected at 10 million cwt, tied with the 1996/97 record. U.S. EXPORTS PROJECTED TO EXPAND IN 1997/98 Total U.S. rice use is projected at 194.9 million cwt in 1997/98, up almost 2 percent from last month and almost 9 percent higher than a year earlier. The month-to-month increase was due to a 3-million-cwt expansion in exports to 85 million cwt, 10 million cwt above 1996/97. Rough rice exports--with Latin America accounting for the bulk of shipments--are projected to increase 20 percent from 1995/96 to 15 million cwt. Greater supplies and lower prices are responsible for the expected expansion in U.S. rice trade. Food use remains projected at 83 million cwt, up 3 million from a year earlier. Ending stocks are projected to be 23.7 million cwt, just below last month's forecast but down nearly 13 percent from a year earlier as the larger crop and beginning stocks are more than offset by greater total use. The stocks-to-use ratio for 1997/98 is projected to be 12.1 percent, down slightly from last month's projection and well below the 15.1 percent achieved in 1996/97. The 1997/98 stocks and stocks-to-use ratio would be the lowest since 1980/81. A breakdown of crop by grain type indicates a long grain crop of 126.9 million cwt, up almost 12 percent from 1996/97. Combined medium and short grain production, projected at 54.6 million cwt, is just below last month's projection but down nearly 6 percent from 1996. All of the medium grain decline is in the South. Long grain exports are projected at 67 million cwt, up almost 5 percent from last month's forecast and almost 21 percent higher than in 1996/97--a result of larger projected supplies. Long grain domestic use is projected at 68.8 million cwt, up 9 percent from 1996/97. Medium grain domestic use is expected to remain essentially unchanged from 1996/97 at just over 41 million cwt. Medium grain exports are projected at 18 million cwt, down from 1996/97's revised 19.5 million, as result of smaller supplies. Long grain ending stocks are projected at 14.1 million cwt, up 1.5 million from last month's projection and just slightly above 1996/97's revised level. The long grain stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 10.4 percent, up from 9.5 percent projected last month but down from 11.9 percent a year earlier. For medium grain, ending stocks are projected at 8.6 million cwt, more than 20 percent below last month's forecast and 29 percent below 1996/97's revised level. The medium grain stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 14.5 percent, well below last month's projection of 18.3 percent and 19.9 percent a year earlier. The August 1 reported stocks account for the tightening of the medium grain market. For 1996/97, U.S. rice exports were revised down 1 million cwt from last month to 75 million cwt based on the pace of shipments through June. All of the downward revision was in long grain exports--projected at 55.5 million cwt. Medium grain exports were revised up 1.5 million cwt to 19.5 million. Rough rice exports are projected at 12.5 million cwt--accounting for over 16 percent of total exports and up 16 percent from 1995/96. FARM PRICES EXPECTED TO POST SMALL DROP IN 1997/98 The 1997/98 (August-July) season average farm price (SAFP) is projected to be $9 to $10 per cwt, down 25 cents on both the high and low end from last month's projection, with the midpoint 40 cents below 1996/97's estimated price of $9.90. The month-to- month price decrease was due to the larger supplies and lower world trading prices--largely the result of the devaluation of the Thai currency. The $9.90 projection for 1996/97 is up over 8 percent from 1995/96, and is the highest season-average farm price since 1980/81. Expectations of relatively strong export demand for high-quality U.S. long grain rice and steadily rising domestic food use will limit any price decrease associated with larger supplies and lower world trading prices. U.S. farm level rice prices have averaged $10 a cwt since January 1997 and have remained strong through the first half of August. Last month, USDA estimated August's midmonth price at $9.94 per cwt and lowered July's to $10 from a preliminary $10.10 per cwt. The weighted average for 1996/97 is a preliminary $9.92 per cwt, virtually equal the season-average projected price. U.S. rice exports and sales commitments were about 5 percent ahead of last year's pace through September 4, according to the U.S. Export Sales report of September 11, 1997. Primary destinations have been the EU, Mexico, Japan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Haiti, Colombia, Peru, Ghana, South Africa, El Salvador, and Jordan. INTERNATIONAL PRICES REMAIN LOW International prices for most grades of rice remain low following a drop that began in early July when Thailand allowed its currency to float--leading to substantial devaluation vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar--and export activity contracted. Offer quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) have averaged $274 per ton thus far in September, down from $296 in August and $332 in July. Thai prices rose in late June to as high as $346 due to purchases by Japan, Nigeria, and Iran. But since late July Nigeria and Iran have been Thailand's only major buyers. The devaluation of the Thai currency with respect to the U.S. dollar in early July contributed heavily to the nearly 2-month slide in export prices. Prices for most grades of Thai rice strengthened a couple dollars a ton in the second week of September, primarily in response to expectations of additional imports by the Philippines. Prices for parboiled rice have shown the least weakness among Thai rice grades this summer, largely due to strong demand from Iran and Nigeria. In contrast, Vietnam, a major competitor of Thailand, has not cut prices and its prices are now virtually equal to Thailand's. Just a month ago Vietnam's prices were at least $40 to $50 a ton below Thai rice of similar quality. But the quick drop in Thai prices has virtually eliminated this difference. Prices for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice--No. 2, 4-percent brokens, offer quotes f.o.b. Houston--have remained at $419 since mid-August after declining from $441 per ton in mid-July. Prices had been steady at $463 since mid-February. A slowdown in milled rice exports this summer is responsible for the recent price drop. For the 1996/97 market year, the season average price for this grade of rice was $450 per ton, the highest since 1981/82. The increasing share of U.S. exports accounted for by rough rice partly accounts for the relative strength of farm prices since the beginning of 1997 in the face of a drop in milled rice prices. The estimated U.S. price premium over Thai rice is currently $145 a ton, up from $134 in August and $114 in July as the Thai price has fallen more than the U.S. price. Several years ago, U.S. rice had been viewed as competitive in world markets with a premium of $30-$50 over Thai rice. However, in recent years this level has likely risen due to some shifting of the U.S. export market to the Western Hemisphere and limited world supplies of high-quality long grain rice. Prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, f.o.b.) have remained at $397 a ton since mid-February after dropping from $419 in early February and from $430 in mid-January. The decline was primarily due to an 11-percent increase in the 1996 U.S. medium grain crop from a year earlier and only a small increase in exports. The Australian harvest of a record medium grain crop this year has also pressured global medium grain prices. Japan's minimum access purchases are scheduled to increase in 1997/98 (April-March) to 531,000 metric tons (brown rice basis), likely adding strength to California medium grain prices. Except for a small increase in late June resulting from greater demand for Thai rice, prices for lower quality rice have essentially slipped since March. Quotes for A.1 Special (100 percent brokens, f.o.b. Bangkok) have averaged $199 a ton thus far in September, about $10 below August. Weak demand and ample supplies are behind the price slide. Like other grades of Thai rice, prices for A.1 Special did post a small increase in the second week of September, largely a response to expected Thai sales to the Philippines. GLOBAL PRODUCTION PROJECTED TO DROP IN 1997/98 For 1997/98, world rice production is projected to be 378.7 million tons (milled basis), 590,000 tons below last month's forecast and down almost 1.5 million from 1996/97's record. Foreign production is projected to be almost 372.8 million tons, down from 374.6 million in 1996/97, while the U.S. crop is projected to rise almost 6 percent to 5.93 million tons. World consumption is projected to be a record 380 million tons in 1997/98, 1.4 million tons above production. This will lower 1997/98 ending stocks 560,000 tons from last month's projection to 52.8 million tons, almost 1.4 million below 1996/97. With global stocks tightening and use rising, the stocks-to-use ratio in 1997/98 drops to 13.9 percent, down from 14.4 percent 1996/97. The 590,000-ton decrease in 1997/98 world production from last month's projection is primarily due to factors associated with an El Nino this year. An El Nino is the above average warming of the Pacific Ocean that is often associated with floods and droughts in parts of Asia and South America. The largest revision was for the Philippines, whose crop was lowered 250,000 tons to 7.3 million (milled basis) due to lack of rainfall in the southern portion of the archipelago. The Philippines' 1996/97 dry season crop was reduced 200,000 tons from last month's forecast as well. An El Nino-induced drought led to a 200,000-ton reduction from last month's forecast in Indonesia's 1997/98 projected output to 33.3 million tons as harvested area was lowered 140,000 hectares. Finally, severe drought in southeastern Australia was responsible for a 150,000-ton drop from last month's projection of the country's projected rice crop to 850,000 tons, well below the 1996/97 record of 1.4 million. In contrast, Mexico's projected crop was revised upward 30,000 tons to 300,000 due to greater allocations of water to farmers in Sinaloa which raised total harvested area 13,000 hectares to 98,000. China accounts for the bulk of the year-to-year drop in projected world production. China's 1997/98 crop is projected at 134 million tons (milled), unchanged from last month but down 2.5 million from the 1996/97 record. A 2-percent drop in projected area is behind the smaller crop. South Korea's crop is projected to drop over 8 percent from the previous season's bumper crop to 4.9 million tons due to lower yields and a small drop in area. South Korea experienced heavy rain and flooding this summer, requiring some replanting. Brazil's crop is projected to drop 150,000 tons to 6.35 million as yields are expected to drop from the 1996/97 record; area is actually forecast to increase. India's 1997/98 crop projection remains unchanged from last month's forecast of 81 million tons--a 460,000-ton increase from 1996/97. Rainfall has been sluggish in some of India's major rice growing area's--most importantly Andhra Pradesh--which are drier than normal and in need of rainfall. However, conditions in other areas of India have been favorable. Thailand's crop is projected up 300,000 tons from 1996/97 to 14 million, the result of higher yields and a small area increase. While overall weather conditions in Thailand have been favorable, rainfall has been below normal in some major growing areas this year. Indonesia's projected crop of 33.3 million tons would be slightly larger than the 32.9 million tons in 1996/97. The drier weather over these countries is the result of an El Nino and could adversely affect rice crops across much of Southwest and Southeast Asia. All 1997/98 crop forecasts have been made assuming normal weather. For 1996/97, world production is projected at a record of almost 380.2 million tons (milled basis), down .5 million ton from last month's projection but up almost 2 percent from 1995/96. Two factors account for the bulk of the month-to-month revision. First, Indonesia's crop projection was cut 310,000 tons from last month's projection to 32.9 million, down slightly from 1995/96. The monthly revision is due to the drought that has plagued several provinces, including Java and Sumatra--major rice growing areas--during the July-September harvest of the dry season crop. Second, the projection for the Philippines was cut 200,000 tons to 7.3 million due to inadequate rain for the country's second -or dry season--crop. The year-to-year increase in 1996/97 world production is the result of record crops in several Asian countries and in some smaller, non-Asian countries. China posted the largest year-to-year increase, with a record 136.5 million tons, up over 5 percent from 1995/96, the result of higher yields and an increase in area. Vietnam, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Australia, Argentina, the European Union, and Uruguay are projected to harvest record crops in 1996/97. Total use for 1996/97 is projected at nearly 376.5 million tons (milled), second only to the projection for 1997/98 and up almost 2 percent from 1995/96. With production exceeding use, ending stocks are projected to rise over 7 percent to almost 54.2 million tons. The 1996/97 stocks-to-use ratio is projected at almost 14.4 percent, above the 13.4 to 13.6 achieved the 2 previous years. GLOBAL TRADE TO RISE IN 1998 Global rice trade is projected at almost 18.5 million tons (milled) in 1998, up 100,000 tons from last month's projection and 575,000 tons higher than this year. Trade in 1998 would be the third highest after 1995 and 1996. The only month-to-month export revision was a 100,000 ton increase in U.S. exports to 2.8 million tons, a result of the upward revision in 1997/98 supplies. Jordan's imports were revised up 10,000 tons to 100,000 in response to an upward adjustment in its 1997 imports. Similarly, Costa Rica's imports were revised up 20,000 tons to 100,000 to remain in synch with an upward adjustment in its 1997 imports. Also, the combined import forecast for El Salvador, Honduras, and Panama was raised 55,000 tons. Several major importers are projected to increase rice trade in 1998, with many taking 1 million tons or more. Iran and Brazil are projected to be the largest importers, at 1.25 million tons each, a 250,000-ton-increase for both. A smaller projected Brazilian crop and no expected expansion in Iran's crop are behind the import growth. China's imports are projected at 1 million tons, up 400,000 based on expectations of larger imports of fragrant rice from Thailand, which was in short supply in 1997. Indonesia is projected to import 1 million tons in 1998, unchanged from this year, the result of rising use and only a small projected expansion in production. The Philippines is projected to import 1 million tons, down 100,000 from 1997's revised level. Several other countries are expected to import more rice in 1998. Senegal's imports are projected up 100,000 tons from 1997 to 500,000 in response to declining stocks and a drop in imports in 1997. Peru is expected to post a 150,000-ton increase, to 350,000, a result of a drop in imports in 1997. Smaller 1997/98 crop projections are behind a 50,000-ton increase in the EU's imports to 700,000. Japan's and South Korea's imports are expected to rise in 1998 as the WTO-mandated minimum access import requirements increase. Rising consumption and a small drop in production are behind a 50,000-ton increase in Malaysia's imports to a projected 600,000 tons. On the export side, Thailand's exports are projected to rebound 450,000 tons from this year to 5.25 million in 1998, primarily the result of a larger crop. Vietnam's exports are projected at 3.5 million tons--a record--and up 250,000 from this year based on expectations of another record crop. India's exports are projected to remain at 1.5 million tons. Pakistan's exports are projected to rise 50,000 tons to 1.7 million. Greater exports from Pakistan are the result of a larger projected crop. A 300,000 ton increase in U.S. exports to 2.8 million is projected, also the result of a larger crop. In contrast, exports from Australia and China are expected to decline in 1998, the result of smaller crops. Trade for 1997 remains projected at 17.88 million tons, although some country revisions were made on the import side. The largest revision was a 100,000- ton increase in the Philippines' imports to 1.1 million, up 200,000 tons from 1996. The month-to-month increase is based on the level of shipments through July and current talks with Vietnam and Thailand for additional imports by yearend. In addition, both the 1996/97 and 1997/98 Philippine crop projections were lowered from last month. Jordan's imports were revised up 20,000 tons to 110,000 due to better tracking. Similarly, Costa Rica's imports are revised up 25,000 tons to 90,000 based on more accurate tracking of sales to date. The combined imports of El Salvador, Honduras, and Panama were raised 50,000 tons. In contrast, Mexico's imports were revised downward 25,000 tons to 275,000 due to the greater production forecast and little expansion in consumption. Note: Printed copies of the 1996 Rice Yearbook are available. To order, call 1-800-999-6779. ***************************************************************** INFORMATION CONTACT AT THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE: * * Nathan Childs *(202) 501-8513 * Next month's Rice Outlook will be available on October 14,1997. * ***************************************************************** Note: Detailed 1997/98 foreign supply and use forecasts are published on September 16, in the Foreign Agricultural Service's Grain: World Markets and Trade. Tables: Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1991/92 to present Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1995/96 to present Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1995/96 to present Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1992/93 to present Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1991/92 to present Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1991/92 to present Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1991/92 to present 1/ =========================================================================== | | 1996/97 1997/98 Item | 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 | 2/ 3/ =========================================================================== | | TOTAL RICE | Percent | | | | | ARP | 5 0 5 0 5 | N/A N/A | | Area | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.884 3.176 2.920 3.353 3.121 | 2.819 3.065 Harvested | 2.781 3.132 2.833 3.316 3.093 | 2.799 3.037 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 5,731 5,736 5,510 5,964 5,621 | 6,121 5,975 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.3 | 25.0 27.1 Production | 159.4 179.7 156.1 197.8 173.9 | 171.3 181.5 Imports | 5.3 6.1 6.9 7.0 7.4 | 10.0 10.0 Total supply | 189.3 213.2 202.5 230.6 212.6 | 206.4 218.6 | | Food | 67.1 69.0 71.2 74.0 77.0 | 80.0 83.0 Seed | 4.1 3.8 4.3 4.1 3.7 | 4.0 4.0 Brewers' use | 15.4 15.1 14.3 14.5 15.6 | 15.4 15.4 Residual 4/ | 8.8 8.8 11.7 7.4 8.3 | 4.9 7.5 Domestic use | 95.5 96.7 101.5 99.9 104.5 | 104.3 109.9 | | Exports | 66.4 77.0 75.2 99.4 83.0 | 75.0 85.0 Rough | 6.3 5.1 3.6 18.2 10.8 | 12.5 15.0 Milled 5/ | 60.1 71.9 71.5 81.2 72.2 | 62.5 70.0 Total use | 161.9 173.7 176.7 199.3 187.6 | 179.3 194.9 | | Ending | | stocks | 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.3 25.0 | 27.1 23.7 CCC stocks | 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 Free stocks | 27.0 39.3 25.8 31.2 25.0 | 27.1 23.7 | | | Percent | | | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 16.9 22.7 14.6 15.7 13.3 | 15.1 12.1 | | | $/cwt | $9.00 Average farm | | to price 6/ | $7.58 $5.89 $7.98 $6.78 $9.15 | $9.90 $10.00 | | | Percent | Average | | milling rate | 70.5 70.0 74.0 74.1 71.4 | 72.0 72.0 =========================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Marketing year weighted average price received by farmers. Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1995/96 to present ============================================================================== | 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 | --------------------- ------------------- ------------------- Month | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt =========================================================================== | August | 9.94 1/ 9.99 10,520 7.64 9,935 September | 9.95 13,478 7.95 12,010 October | 9.75 11,988 8.77 12,493 November | 9.36 11,768 9.12 12,951 December | 9.63 12,758 9.36 12,503 January | 9.87 15,927 9.33 13,130 February | 10.10 12,086 9.10 11,898 March | 10.20 10,133 9.31 14,690 April | 10.20 9,902 9.34 13,562 May | 10.10 7,969 9.69 11,538 June | 9.88 7,092 9.74 9,500 July | 10.00 9,421 9.68 10,142 | Average 2/ | 9.94 9.90 11,087 9.15 12,029 | Total 3/ | 9.00 to 133,042 144,352 | 10.00 4/ =========================================================================== 1/ Preliminary midmonth price estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1997/98 is for August only. 3/ Total volume marketed; 1997/98 is August only. 4/ USDA price range. Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1995/96 to present 1/ =========================================================================== | 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 Month | -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short =========================================================================== | | $/cwt | August | 8.28 7.17 7.30 7.69 7.84 7.96 7.93 6.22 6.06 September | 7.69 7.03 7.15 2/ 7.56 7.81 7.93 8.02 6.30 6.13 October | 7.39 7.73 7.85 8.81 6.67 6.51 November | 7.09 7.58 7.70 8.47 6.82 6.63 December | 7.15 7.63 7.74 8.17 7.16 6.95 January | 7.41 7.65 7.78 8.11 7.19 7.13 February | 7.47 7.57 7.75 7.90 7.49 7.67 March | 7.18 7.49 7.67 7.97 7.38 7.55 April | 6.91 7.16 7.33 7.68 7.25 7.42 May | 8.11 7.14 7.29 7.38 7.17 7.35 June | 8.23 7.04 7.18 7.64 7.42 7.60 July | 8.30 6.88 7.01 7.79 7.82 8.01 | Average 3/| 7.98 7.10 7.22 2/ 7.54 7.46 7.60 7.99 7.07 7.08 =========================================================================== 1/ Loan rate basis (rough); the repayment rate was the lower of the loan level for the crop or the higher of the prevailing world market price or the minimum repayment level. For the 1989 through 1995 crops, the minimum loan repayment levels were 70 percent of the loan level. The minimum loan repayment level has been eliminated for 1996-crop loans, and loans are repayable at the lower of the loan level or the prevailing world price. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1992/93 to present 1/ =========================================================================== | 1997/98| 1996/97 | Country |--------|-------- 1996/97| 1995/96 1994/95 1993/94 1992/93 or | as of | as of | region |09/04/97|09/04/96 Final | Final Final Final Final =========================================================================== 1,000 metric tons European Union | 96 | 123 342 | 417 474 362 362 Other Western Europe | 7 | 3 16 | 19 22 18 47 Turkey | 13 | 0 202 | 187 259 67 191 Eastern Europe | 0 | 0 4 | 34 58 10 46 Former Soviet Union | 0 | 0 23 | 37 18 4 15 | | | Japan | 14 | 3 212 | 192 2 568 0 | | | OTHER ASIA AND | | | THE MIDDLE EAST | 74 | 113 315 | 344 525 347 438 Iran | 0 | 0 0 | 72 191 121 130 Iraq | 30 | 30 0 | 0 0 0 0 Saudi Arabia | 20 | 61 130 | 130 153 157 205 Jordan | 20 | 16 22 | 22 62 1 33 Syria | 0 | 11 25 | 1 28 0 0 | | | AFRICA | 26 | 28 205 | 324 307 257 315 Republic of | | | South Africa | 14 | 17 114 | 147 113 90 111 Ghana | 10 | 6 33 | 48 7 0 0 | | | WESTERN HEMISPHERE | 211 | 142 934 | 1,010 1,585 513 663 Canada | 38 | 34 109 | 107 127 91 98 Mexico | 42 | 22 309 | 318 327 177 249 Haiti | 23 | 0 86 | 121 148 43 117 Jamaica | 7 | 2 28 | 80 74 63 30 Peru | 33 | 35 46 | 36 77 3 34 El Salvador | 28 | 1 22 | 30 37 5 6 | | | Total | 441 | 418 2,254 | 2,564 3,201 2,149 2,075 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | | Census Bureau 2/ |2,780 4/| 2,450 4/ | 2,790 3,723 2,521 2,673 Difference 3/ | 344 5/| | 226 522 372 598 ===========================================================================Note: The "U.S. Export Sales" reports sales and shipments in product weight. The milled equivalent total may vary significantly from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales," FAS, USDA. Columns labeled "as of" represent combined exports plus sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census Bureau rice export total (reported on a product-weight basis) is the official export total. 3/ The "U.S. Export Sales" report does not include U.S. Government exports under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 4/ USDA forecast, milled equivalent basis. 5/ The average difference between exports reported by the U.S. Census Bureau and exports reported in "U.S. Export Sales" for 1992/93-1995/96. Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1991/92 to present =========================================================================== | U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Month | --------------------------- ------------------------------------- or | Long Medium marketing | grain 3/ grain 4/ Parboiled 100% 5% par- 15% 35% A.1 6/ year 1/ | Houston Calif. Houston grade B boiled broken broken special =========================================================================== | | $/metric ton 7/ | 1991/92 | 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 | 322 383 349 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 | 439 451 480 294 244 243 208 160 | Aug '94 | 313 428 353 259 271 237 222 200 Sep '94 | 309 397 344 267 265 246 233 210 Oct '94 | 304 397 331 272 262 249 238 216 Nov '94 | 298 397 331 272 263 249 236 215 Dec '94 | 298 397 331 270 259 250 237 222 Jan '95 | 298 366 331 282 264 265 252 232 Feb '95 | 298 358 342 289 266 270 255 226 Mar '95 | 298 353 342 292 269 272 253 222 Apr '95 | 298 353 342 290 269 271 254 226 May '95 | 311 353 346 299 274 279 262 239 Jun '95 | 358 353 380 333 305 314 297 276 Jul '95 | 392 353 406 353 341 335 321 297 | 1994/95 | 314 375 348 290 276 270 255 232 | Aug '95 | 386 364 419 346 343 327 310 288 Sep '95 | 386 380 424 368 354 346 322 285 Oct '95 | 430 432 485 393 373 372 340 293 Nov '95 | 441 441 463 354 342 334 315 296 Dec '95 | 419 496 463 347 337 326 307 278 Jan '96 | 410 507 454 372 355 350 321 271 Feb '96 | 402 474 449 377 357 348 307 256 Mar '96 | 397 463 441 373 350 344 301 260 Apr '96 | 406 459 454 342 316 310 272 245 May '96 | 430 441 471 347 318 312 272 244 Jun '96 | 430 441 474 360 339 322 275 240 Jul '96 | 430 441 474 370 347 335 281 229 | 1995/96 | 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 | Aug '96 | 446 441 491 346 330 314 265 213 Sep '96 | 452 441 478 341 331 311 264 216 Oct '96 | 449 433 474 324 330 293 250 208 Nov '96 | 438 430 463 325 327 293 248 206 Dec '96 | 430 430 463 330 325 298 253 205 Jan '97 | 435 424 474 367 334 332 277 218 Feb '97 | 455 402 485 359 321 320 270 226 Mar '97 | 463 397 485 341 315 302 261 231 Apr '97 | 463 397 485 319 301 285 252 220 May '97 | 463 397 485 335 315 300 257 215 Jun '97 | 463 397 485 335 324 299 255 221 Jul '97 | 446 397 485 332 327 296 256 215 | 1996/97 | 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 | Aug '97 | 430 397 474 296 314 265 237 209 Sep '97 8/| 419 397 463 274 299 247 224 199 | 1997/98 8/| 424 397 468 285 306 256 231 204 =========================================================================== 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ 100 percent broken. 7/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 8/ Preliminary. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1991/92 to present 1/ =========================================================================== | | 1996/97 1997/98 Item | 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96| 2/ 3/ =========================================================================== | | LONG-GRAIN | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.113 2.408 2.102 2.410 2.335 | 1.980 Harvested | 2.023 2.372 2.028 2.379 2.312 | 1.964 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 5,395 5,397 5,082 5,609 5,265 | 5,777 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.4 | 10.1 14.1 Production | 109.1 128.0 103.1 133.4 121.7 | 113.5 126.9 Imports | 4.7 5.4 6.2 6.0 6.3 | 9.0 9.0 Total supply | 125.4 146.4 130.9 154.5 142.4 | 132.6 149.9 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 61.4 60.8 67.2 60.3 66.7 | 63.0 68.8 Exports | 51.0 64.0 48.6 79.8 65.6 | 55.5 67.0 Total use | 112.4 124.8 115.8 140.1 132.3 | 118.5 135.8 | | Ending stocks | 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.4 10.1 | 14.1 14.1 | | | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 11.6 17.3 13.0 10.3 7.6 | 11.9 10.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN | | Million acres | | | Planted | 0.771 0.768 0.818 0.943 0.786 | .839 Harvested | 0.758 0.760 0.805 0.937 0.781 | .835 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 6,627 6,795 6,590 6,866 6,676 | 6,929 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 | 14.3 12.1 Production | 50.2 51.6 53.0 64.3 52.1 | 57.9 54.6 Imports | 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.2 | 1.0 1.0 Total supply | 62.4 64.8 70.9 75.0 69.5 | 72.8 67.7 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 34.1 35.9 34.3 39.6 37.8 | 41.2 41.1 Exports | 15.4 13.0 26.6 19.6 17.4 | 19.5 18.0 Total use | 49.5 48.9 60.9 59.2 55.3 | 60.7 59.1 | | Ending stocks | 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 14.3 | 12.1 8.6 | | | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 26.1 32.4 16.4 26.7 25.9 | 19.9 14.5 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | Million hundredweight | Ending stocks | | difference 1/ | 1.4 2.0 0.7 1.1 0.6 | 0.9 1.0 ===========================================================================1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the stock total for all types of rice in table 1. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. END_OF_FILE