RICE OUTLOOK October 14, 1997 October 1997, RCS-1097 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. Electronic release only; no published copies are available. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o The 1997 U.S. rice crop is projected at 179.4 million cwt, down 1 percent from last month's projection but almost 5 percent larger than the 1996 crop. o The 1997 yield is estimated at 5,907 pounds per acre, down 1 percent from last month's projection and more than 3 percent below 1996's record 6,121. o The 1997/98 global rice crop is projected to be a record 380.9 million tons (milled basis), up over 2 million tons from last month's projection--primarily due to increased crop projections for China and India--and just above the 1996/97 crop. o The combined 1998 import forecast for Colombia, Nicaragua, Ecuador, and the Dominican Republic was increased 170,000 tons from last month, largely due to weather-related difficulties. RECORD 1997 CROP YIELD PROJECTED FOR CALIFORNIA The 1997 U.S. rough rice crop is pegged at 179.4 million hundredweight (cwt), down 1 percent from last month's forecast, but nearly 5 percent larger than the 1996 crop. While more than 9 percent below 1994's record 197.8 million cwt, this year's crop is virtually tied with 1992 for the third largest on record. The 1997 yield is estimated at 5,907 pounds per acre, 1 percent below last month's estimate and more than 3 percent below the 1996 record of 6,121 pounds. The 1997 yield would be the third highest on record. This year's strong yield is largely driven by record yields in California resulting from very favorable weather throughout the growing season. In contrast, across the South yields are lower than last year's records due to weather related difficulties--late planting in Texas, and a cool wet spring that delayed emergence and harvest in much of the Delta. In addition, abnormally hot weather in Arkansas during July may have hindered crop development in that State. The decline from the 1996 record U.S. yield is partly due to a shift in share of planted acreage from the high yielding California medium grain rice to the lower yielding southern long grain. The year-to-year increase in crop size results from increased planted area. The June Acreage report indicated total planted area up 246,000 acres--nearly 9 percent--from 1996. Long grain was reported up 303,000 acres--or over 15 percent--from 1996 and medium grain down 62,000 acres or 7.5 percent. All of the drop in medium grain area was in the South. California medium grain area was reported up over 1 percent from 1996. In the South, long grain plantings rose 302,000 acres while medium grain area dropped 69,000. Short grain planting was reported at 20,000 acres, up 5,000 from 1996. California has a projected yield of 8,500 pounds per acre, up 300 pounds from last month's estimate, over 13 percent higher than 1996, and tied with record yields achieved in 1992 and 1994. Early planting and a cooler than typical season this year in California have boosted yields. Arkansas--which produces over 40 percent of the U.S. crop--has an estimated yield of 5,600 pounds. Although 250 pounds below last month's estimate and 9 percent below last year's record, it is still the third highest on record. The average yield in Mississippi is projected to be 5,500 pounds, down 100 pounds from last month's estimate and 500 pounds below 1996's record. Missouri--the smallest rice producing state--has a projected yield of 5,400 pounds, down 150 pounds from its 1996 record. A cool wet spring delayed emergence in much of the Delta, likely contributing to the lower yields. Louisiana is projected to achieve an average yield of 4,650 pounds per acre, 224 pounds below last year's record. Louisiana is a low yielding State due to higher incidence of disease and problems with weeds and blackbirds. Texas, which experienced extremely late plantings, is projected to achieve a yield of 5,700 pounds, down 8 percent from last year's record. Late plantings are typically associated with more disease, weed, and insect problems than early planted rice. In addition, few Texas producers are able to harvest a "ratoon" or partial second crop due to the cold wet spring weather that delayed plantings. Typically, 40 to 45 percent of Texas producers harvest a ratoon crop. This year, no more than 10 percent could plant early enough to do so. All States except Texas are projected to produce larger crops in 1997 than last year. The California crop is pegged at a record 43.6 million cwt, up almost 4 percent from last month's projection and over 16 percent larger than last year. California was the only State to have its crop projection raised this month. Arkansas is projected to produce 74.9 million cwt, down more than 4 percent from last month's projection and accounting for the bulk of the month-to-month drop in the U.S. crop projection. While the Arkansas crop would be up 4 percent from 1996, it would still below the State's 1994 record of 80.9 million cwt. Mississippi's crop is projected at more than 14.7 million cwt, down slightly from last month's projection but up 18 percent from 1996. The remaining State crop projections were unchanged from last month. Louisiana's crop is projected at 26.3 million cwt, up slightly from 1996. Missouri's crop is projected at 5.1 million cwt, up almost 3 percent. The Texas crop is projected to drop 20 percent to 14.8 million cwt, the smallest since 1983. The harvest is nearing completion in the South, although it remains a little behind average in Arkansas and Texas. In contrast to the South, harvesting is well ahead of its 5-year average in California. By October 7, 70 percent of the crop had been harvested in California, well ahead of the State's 5-year average of 41 percent. Early developing crops tend to bode well for yields. Total U.S. supplies for 1997/98 are projected at 216.5 million cwt, down about 1 percent from last month's projection but 5 percent above a year earlier. NASS reported August 1 stocks of 27.1 million cwt, up almost 2.1 million from a year earlier. Imports remain projected at a record 10 million cwt, nearly unchanged from 1996/97. U.S. EXPORTS PROJECTED TO EXPAND IN 1997/98 Total U.S. rice use is projected at 192.9 million cwt in 1997/98, almost 8 percent higher than a year earlier. The bulk of the expansion is due to an 11-percent increase in exports to 85 million cwt. Rough rice exports--with Latin America accounting for the bulk of shipments--are projected to increase almost 20 percent from 1996/97 to 15 million cwt and account for nearly 18 percent of total U.S. rice exports. Greater supplies and lower prices are responsible for the expected expansion. Many Latin American countries prefer to import rough rice instead of milled rice to better utilize domestic mill capacity. The U.S. is one of very few exporters who allow rough rice to be exported. Food use remains projected at 83 million cwt, up 3 million from a year earlier. Brewers' use remains projected at 15.4 million cwt, unchanged from 1996/97. Ending stocks for 1997/98 are projected to be 23.6 million cwt, nearly the same as last month's forecast but down nearly 13 percent from a year earlier as the larger crop and greater beginning stocks are more than offset by greater total use. The stocks-to-use ratio for 1997/98 is projected to be 12.2 percent, nearly the same as last month's projection but well below the 15.1 percent of 1996/97. The 1997/98 stocks and stocks-to-use ratio would be the lowest since 1980/81. A breakdown of crop by grain type indicates a long grain crop of 125.4 million cwt, down 1 percent from last month's forecast but up almost 11 percent from 1996. Combined medium and short grain production, projected at 54 million cwt, is 1 percent below last month's projection and down nearly 7 percent from 1996. All of the medium grain decline is in the South. Long grain exports are projected at 66 million cwt, down 1 million cwt from last month's forecast but 20 percent higher than in 1996/97--a result of larger projected supplies and lower prices. Long grain domestic use is projected at 68.8 million cwt, up almost 9 percent from 1996/97. Medium and short grain domestic use is projected at 39.1 million cwt, 5 percent below last month's forecast and down slightly from last year's revised level. Medium grain exports are projected at 19 million cwt, up 1 million cwt from last month's projection but 11 percent below 1996/97's revised 21.4 million cwt. Long grain ending stocks are projected at 13.7 million cwt, down more than 3 percent from last month's projection and almost 3 percent smaller than a year earlier. The long grain stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 10.1 percent, down slightly from last month's projection and down 15 percent from a year earlier. For medium grain, ending stocks are projected at almost 9 million cwt, 4 percent above last month's forecast but 25 percent below 1996/97. The medium grain stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 15.4 percent, down almost 1 percentage point from last month's projection and well below the 19.8 percent of 1996/97. This is the third straight year of declining stocks and stocks-to-use ratios for medium grain rice. For 1996/97, U.S. rice exports were raised 1.4 million cwt from last month's projection to 76.4 million cwt based on final Bureau of the Census data. All of the upward revision was in medium grain exports--projected at 21.4 million cwt. Long grain exports were revised down 1 percent to 55 million cwt. Rough rice exports are projected at almost 12.6 million cwt--accounting for over 16 percent of total exports and up 18 percent from 1995/96. FARM PRICES EXPECTED TO POST SMALL DROP IN 1997/98 The 1997/98 (August-July) season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected to be $9 to $10 per cwt, with the midpoint 40 cents below 1996/97's estimated price of $9.90. The 1996/97 price is up over 8 percent from 1995/96, and is the highest season-average farm price since 1980/81. Expectations of relatively strong export demand for high-quality U.S. long grain rice and steadily rising domestic food use will limit any price decrease associated with larger supplies and lower world trading prices. U.S. farm level rice prices have averaged $10 a cwt since January 1997 and have remained strong through the first half of September. Last month, USDA estimated September's midmonth price at $9.98 per cwt and left August's unchanged at $9.94 per cwt. For the season-average price to equal the midpoint of the projected range, monthly prices must average $9.41 the remainder of the season. U.S. rice exports and sales commitments were about 10 percent behind last year's pace through October 2, according to the U.S. Export Sales report of October 9, 1997. Primary destinations have been the EU, Mexico, Japan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Colombia, Peru, Ghana, South Africa, El Salvador, Cote d'Ivoire, Iraq, and Jordan. INTERNATIONAL PRICES REMAIN LOW International prices for most grades of rice remain low following a drop that began in early July when Thailand allowed its currency to float (leading to substantial devaluation vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar) and export activity contracted. Offer quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) have averaged $276 per ton thus far in October, down slightly from $280 in September and $296 in August. The Thai price had averaged nearly $335 per ton from May through July. Thai prices rose a little in late September to as high as $291 due to purchases by Japan, Nigeria, and Iran, as well as expectations of sales to the Philippines. But prices declined again by early October in response to a further slide in the value of the Thai currency and a lack of fresh export business. The devaluation of the Thai currency in early July contributed heavily to the 3-month slide in international prices. Prices for parboiled rice have shown the least weakness among Thai rice grades, largely due to strong demand from Iran and Nigeria. Vietnam, a major competitor of Thailand, did not cut its price until mid-September. At the start of that month, Thai prices had fallen to near Vietnamese prices, eliminating any price advantage for Vietnamese rice. The recent cut in Vietnam's prices and movements in the Thai price put Vietnamese prices $30-$40 a ton lower than Thailand's for similar quality rice. The recent weakness in world prices is partly a result of the impending Indian and Pakistan new-crop harvests. Prices for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice--No. 2, 4-percent brokens, offer quotes f.o.b. Houston--have remained at $419 since mid-August after declining from $441 per ton in mid-July. Prices had been steady at $463 since mid-February. A slowdown in milled rice exports this summer was responsible for the price drop. For the 1996/97 market year, the season average price for this grade of rice was $450 per ton, the highest since 1981/82. The increasing share of U.S. exports accounted for by rough rice partly accounts for the relative strength of farm prices since the beginning of 1997 despite the drop in milled rice prices. The estimated U.S. price premium over Thai rice is currently $143 a ton, up from $139 in September and $134 in August as the Thai price has fallen substantially. Several years ago, U.S. rice had been viewed as competitive in world markets with a premium of $30-$50 over Thai rice. However, in recent years this level has likely risen due to some shifting of the U.S. export market to the Western Hemisphere and limited world supplies of high-quality long grain rice. Prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, f.o.b.) have remained at $397 a ton since mid-February after dropping from $419 in early February and from $430 in mid-January. The decline was primarily due to an 11-percent increase in the 1996 U.S. medium grain crop from a year earlier. The Australian harvest of a record medium grain crop this year has also pressured global medium grain prices. Japan's minimum access purchases are scheduled to increase in 1997/98 (April-March) to 531,000 metric tons (brown rice basis), likely adding strength to California medium grain prices. Except for a small increase in late June resulting from greater demand for Thai rice, prices for lower quality rice have essentially slipped since March. Quotes for A.1 Special (100 percent brokens, f.o.b. Bangkok) have averaged $198 a ton thus far in October, about $5 below September. Weak demand and ample supplies are behind the price slide. Like other grades of Thai rice, prices for A.1 Special did post a small increase in the second week of September, largely a response to expected Thai sales to the Philippines. RECORD GLOBAL PRODUCTION PROJECTED FOR 1997/98 For 1997/98, world rice production is projected to be a record 380.9 million tons (milled basis), up 2.2 million tons from last month's forecast and slightly larger than the 1996/97 crop. Foreign production is projected to be about 375 million tons, barely larger than in 1996/97, while the U.S. crop is projected to rise almost 5 percent to 5.86 million tons. World consumption is projected to be a record 381.5 million tons, exceeding production by 580,000 tons. Ending stocks are projected at 53.3 million tons, up slightly from last month's projection but down 1 percent from a year earlier. With global stocks tightening and use rising, the stocks-to-use ratio in 1997/98 is forecast at 14 percent, down from 14.4 percent 1996/97. The 2.2-million-ton increase in 1997/98 world production from last month's projection is primarily due to a 2-million-ton increase in China's crop to 136 million tons (milled basis), a result of larger area. It also stems from a 500,000-ton increase in India's crop to 81.5 million tons, due totally to higher projected yields. Crop projections for other countries were raised from last month as well. Brazil's crop was raised to 6.5 million tons from 6.35 million as a result of higher yields. South Korea's crop was raised slightly based on a very small area increase. Finally, the Government of Costa Rica has revised production estimates for the past 10 years. For 1997/98, the crop is projected at 150,000 tons, up 30,000 from last month's projection. In contrast, projections for several countries were lowered. Factors associated with an El Nino this year are responsible for downward revisions in Central and South America. An El Nino is the above average warming of the Pacific Ocean that is often associated with floods and droughts in parts of Asia and South America. The largest revision was for Colombia, whose crop was lowered 320,000 tons to 830,000 (milled basis) due to lack of rainfall that has cut area and yield. Nicaragua's crop was lowered 15,000 tons to 85,000 as a result of lower area and yield. Honduras' crop was lowered 10,000 tons to 30,000 due to smaller area and yields. The Dominican Republic's projected crop was lowered 40,000 tons to 285,000 due to reduced area and yields. And finally, extreme dryness resulted in a 50,000 ton downward revision in Cote d'Ivoire's crop to 400,000 tons, all due to lower yields. India accounts for the bulk of the year-to-year production increase. India's 81.5-million-ton crop is up 960,000 tons from 1996/97, due to slightly higher projected yields. Burma's crop is projected at 9.6 million tons (milled), unchanged from last month but up 600,000 from 1996/97. Higher yields and a small area increase are behind the larger crop. Indonesia's crop is projected to increase 400,000 tons from last year to a record 33.3 million tons due to larger area. Higher yields and larger area are behind a 300,000-ton increase in Thailand's projected crop to 14 million tons. The U.S. is projected to produce nearly 5.9 million tons of rice, up 260,000 tons from 1996/97, a result of greater planted area. Bangladesh and Pakistan are also projected to produce slightly larger crops in 1997/98. In contrast, lower yields resulting from inadequate rainfall are behind an almost 16 percent drop from 1996/97 in Australia's projected crop to 850,000 tons. South Korea's rice production is projected to fall 8 percent to 4.9 million tons due to a drop in yields. EU production is projected to drop more than 2 percent to almost 1.6 million tons, a result of lower yields. For 1996/97, world production is projected at 380 million tons (milled basis), nearly the same as last month's projection as upward revisions were nearly matched by downward revisions. The 1996/97 crop is up over 2 percent from 1995/96. Brazil's 1996/97 crop was revised up almost 2 percent to 6.63 million tons due to higher yields and a slight area increase. Panama's crop was raised 88,000 tons to 218,000 based on higher yields and greater area. Data on Panama's rice crop have been revised back 10 years based on new statistics from the Government of Panama. Costa Rica's crop was raised 38,000 tons to 158,000 due to higher area and yield. New data from the Government of Costa Rica are behind the revisions. In contrast, the Bangladesh crop was revised down 80,000 tons to 18.4 million because of slightly lower yields. Rice production in the Dominican Republic was lowered 15,000 tons to 310,000 due to lower area. Nicaragua's production was lowered 2,000 tons to 98,000, primarily due to lower area. And finally, the crop projection for Honduras was lowered 2,000 tons to 36,000 due to lower yields. The year-to-year increase in 1996/97 world production resulted from record crops in several Asian countries and in some smaller, non-Asian countries. China posted the largest year-to-year increase, with a record 136.6 million tons, up over 5 percent from 1995/96, the result of higher yields and an increase in area. Vietnam, the Philippines, Australia, Argentina, the European Union, and Uruguay harvested record crops in 1996/97. Total use for 1996/97 is projected at over 376 million tons (milled), second only to the projection for 1997/98 and up almost 2 percent from 1995/96. With production exceeding use, ending stocks rose almost 8 percent to nearly 54 million tons. The 1996/97 stocks-to-use ratio was 14.3 percent, up from 13.5 the previous year. GLOBAL TRADE TO RISE IN 1998 Global rice trade is projected at almost 19 million tons (milled) in 1998, up almost 3 percent from last month's projection and 6 percent higher than this year. Trade in 1998 would be the third highest after 1995 and 1996. The only month-to-month export revision was a 500,000-ton increase in China's exports to 1 million tons due to the upward revision in its 1997/98 crop. On the import side, Ecuador's imports were revised up 100,000 tons from 0 in response to a 10-percent weather-related drop in production from 1996/97. Colombia's imports were revised up 50,000 tons to 200,000 in response to the almost 28-percent reduction in 1997/98 output from last month. Import forecasts for both Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic were revised up 10,000 tons--or 20 percent--to 60,000 tons in response to lowered crop prospects. In contrast, imports by Brazil were lowered 250,000 tons to 1 million--due to improved crop prospects. Several major importers are projected to increase rice trade in 1998, with many taking 1 million tons or more. Iran is projected to be the largest importer, taking 1.25 million tons, up 250,000 tons from 1997. China's imports are projected at 1 million tons, up 400,000 based on expectations of larger imports of fragrant rice from Thailand, which was in short supply in 1997. Indonesia is projected to import 1 million tons in 1998, up from 750,000 this year, the result of rising use and only a small projected expansion in production. The Philippines is projected to import 1 million tons, up 100,000 from 1997's revised level. Several other countries are expected to import more rice in 1998. Senegal's imports are projected up 100,000 tons from 1997 to 500,000 in response to declining stocks and a drop in imports in 1997. Peru is expected to post a 150,000-ton increase, to 350,000, following a drop in imports in 1997. A smaller 1997/98 crop is behind a 50,000-ton increase in the EU's imports to 700,000. Japan's and South Korea's imports are expected to rise as the WTO-mandated minimum access import requirements increase. Rising consumption and little growth in production are behind a 50,000-ton increase in Malaysia's imports to a projected 600,000 tons. On the export side, Thailand's exports are projected to rebound 450,000 tons from this year to 5.25 million in 1998, primarily due to a larger crop. Vietnam's exports are projected at 3.5 million tons--a record--and up 250,000 from this year based on expectations of another record crop. India's exports are projected to remain at 1.5 million tons. Pakistan's exports are projected to rise 50,000 tons to 1.7 million. Greater exports from Pakistan stem from a larger projected crop. U.S. exports are projected to increase 300,000 tons to 2.8 million, also the result of a larger crop. In contrast, Australia's exports are expected to decline 50,000 tons in 1998, due to an almost 16-percent decline in production from 1996/97. Trade for 1997 remains projected at nearly 17.9 million tons, although some country revisions were made on the import side. The largest revision was a 200,000-ton decrease in the Philippines' imports to 900,000 tons, unchanged from 1996. The month-to-month decrease occurred because some imports previously projected for late 1997 were shifted to early 1998. In addition, Colombia's imports were raised 50,000 tons to 200,000 due to the lowered 1997/98 crop projection. ----------------------------------------------------------------- This report is available on the Internet at the ERS Home Page at: http://www.econ.ag.gov Note: Printed copies of the 1996 Rice Yearbook are available. To order, call 1-800-999-6779. Please note the ERS Auto Fax number will change to (202) 694-5700 by November 1, 1997. ***************************************************************** * INFORMATION CONTACT AT THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE: Nathan Childs (202) 501-8513 After November 1 (202) 694-5292 Next month's Rice Outlook will be released on November 12, 1997. ***************************************************************** Note: Detailed 1997/98 foreign supply and use forecasts are published on October 15, in the Foreign Agricultural Service's GRAIN: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE. Tables: Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1991/92 to present Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1995/96 to present Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1995/96 to present Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1992/93 to present Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1992/93 to present Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1991/92 to present Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1991/92 to present 1/ ============================================================ 1996/97 1997/98 Item | 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 | 2/ 3/ ============================================================ | | TOTAL RICE | Percent | | | | | ARP | 5 0 5 0 5 | N/A N/A | | Area | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.884 3.176 2.920 3.353 3.121 | 2.819 3.065 Harvested | 2.781 3.132 2.833 3.316 3.093 | 2.799 3.037 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 5,731 5,736 5,510 5,964 5,621 | 6,121 5,907 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.3 | 25.0 27.1 Production | 159.4 179.7 156.1 197.8 173.9 | 171.3 179.4 Imports | 5.3 6.1 6.9 7.0 7.4 | 10.0 10.0 Total supply | 189.3 213.2 202.5 230.6 212.6 | 206.4 216.5 | | Food | 67.1 69.0 71.2 74.0 77.0 | 80.0 83.0 Seed | 4.1 3.8 4.3 4.1 3.7 | 4.0 4.0 Brewers' use | 15.4 15.1 14.3 14.5 15.6 | 15.4 15.4 Residual 4/ | 8.8 8.8 11.7 7.4 8.3 | 3.4 5.5 Domestic use | 95.5 96.7 101.5 99.9 104.5 | 102.8 107.9 | | Exports | 66.4 77.0 75.2 99.4 83.0 | 76.4 85.0 Rough | 6.3 5.1 3.6 18.2 10.8 | 12.6 15.0 Milled 5/ | 60.1 71.9 71.5 81.2 72.2 | 63.8 70.0 Total use | 161.9 173.7 176.7 199.3 187.6 | 179.2 192.9 | | Ending | | stocks | 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.3 25.0 | 27.1 23.6 CCC stocks | 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 Free stocks | 27.0 39.3 25.8 31.2 25.0 | 27.1 23.6 | | | Percent | | | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 16.9 22.7 14.6 15.7 13.3 | 15.1 12.2 | | | $/cwt | $9.00 Average farm | | to price 6/ | $7.58 $5.89 $7.98 $6.78 $9.15 | $9.90 $10.00 | | | Percent | Average | | milling rate | 70.5 70.0 74.0 74.1 71.4 | 72.0 72.0 =========================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Marketing year weighted average price received by farmers. Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1995/96 to present =========================================================== | 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 | --------------------- ------------------- ------------------- Month | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt =========================================================== | August | 9.94 9,177 9.99 10,520 7.64 9,935 September | 9.98 1/ 9,177 1/ 9.95 13,478 7.95 12,010 October | 9.75 11,988 8.77 12,493 November | 9.36 11,768 9.12 12,951 December | 9.63 12,758 9.36 12,503 January | 9.87 15,927 9.33 13,130 February | 10.10 12,086 9.10 11,898 March | 10.20 10,133 9.31 14,690 April | 10.20 9,902 9.34 13,562 May | 10.10 7,969 9.69 11,538 June | 9.88 7,092 9.74 9,500 July | 10.00 9,421 9.68 10,142 | Average 2/ | 9.96 18,354 9.90 11,087 9.15 12,029 | Total 3/ | 9.00 to 133,042 144,352 | 10.00 4/ =========================================================== 1/ Preliminary midmonth price estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1997/98 is for August only. 3/ Total volume marketed; 1997/98 is August to date only. 4/ USDA price range. Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1995/96 to present 1/ ============================================================================ | 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 Month | -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ========================================================= | | $/cwt | August | 8.28 7.17 7.30 7.69 7.84 7.96 7.93 6.22 6.06 September | 7.72 7.31 7.44 7.56 7.81 7.93 8.02 6.30 6.13 October | 7.86 7.51 7.64 2/ 7.39 7.73 7.85 8.81 6.67 6.51 November | 7.09 7.58 7.70 8.47 6.82 6.63 December | 7.15 7.63 7.74 8.17 7.16 6.95 January | 7.41 7.65 7.78 8.11 7.19 7.13 February | 7.47 7.57 7.75 7.90 7.49 7.67 March | 7.18 7.49 7.67 7.97 7.38 7.55 April | 6.91 7.16 7.33 7.68 7.25 7.42 May | 8.11 7.14 7.29 7.38 7.17 7.35 June | 8.23 7.04 7.18 7.64 7.42 7.60 July | 8.30 6.88 7.01 7.79 7.82 8.01 | Average 3/| 7.95 7.33 7.46 2/ 7.54 7.46 7.60 7.99 7.07 7.08 ========================================================= 1/ Loan rate basis (rough); the repayment rate was the lower of the loan level for the crop or the higher of the prevailing world market price or the minimum repayment level. For the 1989 through 1995 crops, the minimum loan repayment levels were 70 percent of the loan level. The minimum loan repayment level has been eliminated for 1996-crop loans, and loans are repayable at the lower of the loan level or the prevailing world price. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1992/93 to present 1/ ========================================================= | 1997/98| 1996/97 | Country |--------|-------- 1996/97|1995/96 1994/95 1993/94 1992/93 or | as of | as of | region |09/04/97|09/04/96 Final | Final Final Final Final ========================================================= 1,000 metric tons European Union | 121 | 147 342 | 417 474 362 391 Other Western Europe | 11 | 8 16 | 19 22 17 22 Turkey | 15 | 63 202 | 187 259 67 191 Eastern Europe | 0 | 0 4 | 34 58 10 46 Former Soviet Union | 0 | 13 23 | 37 18 4 15 | | | Japan | 37 | 3 212 | 192 2 568 0 | | | OTHER ASIA AND | | | THE MIDDLE EAST | 80 | 149 315 | 344 525 347 438 Iran | 0 | 0 0 | 72 191 121 130 Iraq | 30 | 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 Saudi Arabia | 21 | 63 168 | 130 153 157 205 Jordan | 20 | 35 22 | 56 62 1 33 Syria | 0 | 11 25 | 1 28 0 0 | | | AFRICA | 65 | 66 205 | 324 257 257 315 Republic of | | | South Africa | 23 | 30 114 | 147 113 90 111 Cote d'Ivoire | 29 | 6 31 | 82 57 67 92 Ghana | 11 | 11 33 | 48 7 0 11 | | | WESTERN HEMISPHERE | 317 | 243 934 | 1,010 1,585 513 663 Canada | 47 | 40 109 | 107 127 91 98 Mexico | 66 | 79 309 | 318 327 177 249 Haiti | 30 | 5 86 | 121 148 43 117 Jamaica | 13 | 17 28 | 80 74 63 30 Peru | 35 | 35 46 | 36 77 3 34 El Salvador | 53 | 1 22 | 30 37 5 6 Dominican Republic | 20 | 0 19 | 3 40 0 0 Guatemala | 10 | 0 32 | 31 23 5 15 Honduras | 22 | 19 52 | 30 29 1 2 Nicaragua | 7 | 7 68 | 29 39 0 22 | | | Total | 645 | 692 2,254 | 2,564 3,201 2,149 2,075 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | | Census Bureau 2/ |2,780 4/| 2,500 4/ | 2,790 3,723 2,521 2,673 Difference 3/ | 344 5/| | 226 522 372 598 ========================================================= Note: The "U.S. Export Sales" reports sales and shipments in product weight. The milled equivalent total may vary significantly from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales," FAS, USDA. Columns labeled "as of" represent combined exports plus sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census Bureau rice export total (reported on a product-weight basis) is the official export total. 3/ The "U.S. Export Sales" report does not include U.S. Government exports under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 4/ USDA forecast, milled equivalent basis. 5/ The average difference between exports reported by the U.S. Census Bureau and exports reported in "U.S. Export Sales" for 1992/93-1995/96. Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1992/93 to present ========================================================= | U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Month | --------------------------- ------------------------------------- or | Long Medium marketing | grain 3/ grain 4/ Parboiled 100% 5% par- 15% 35% A.1 6/ year 1/ | Houston Calif. Houston grade B boiled broken broken special ========================================================= | | $/metric ton 7/ | 1992/93 | 322 383 349 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 | 439 451 480 294 244 243 208 160 | Aug '94 | 313 428 353 259 271 237 222 200 Sep '94 | 309 397 344 267 265 246 233 210 Oct '94 | 304 397 331 272 262 249 238 216 Nov '94 | 298 397 331 272 263 249 236 215 Dec '94 | 298 397 331 270 259 250 237 222 Jan '95 | 298 366 331 282 264 265 252 232 Feb '95 | 298 358 342 289 266 270 255 226 Mar '95 | 298 353 342 292 269 272 253 222 Apr '95 | 298 353 342 290 269 271 254 226 May '95 | 311 353 346 299 274 279 262 239 Jun '95 | 358 353 380 333 305 314 297 276 Jul '95 | 392 353 406 353 341 335 321 297 | 1994/95 | 314 375 348 290 276 270 255 232 | Aug '95 | 386 364 419 346 343 327 310 288 Sep '95 | 386 380 424 368 354 346 322 285 Oct '95 | 430 432 485 393 373 372 340 293 Nov '95 | 441 441 463 354 342 334 315 296 Dec '95 | 419 496 463 347 337 326 307 278 Jan '96 | 410 507 454 372 355 350 321 271 Feb '96 | 402 474 449 377 357 348 307 256 Mar '96 | 397 463 441 373 350 344 301 260 Apr '96 | 406 459 454 342 316 310 272 245 May '96 | 430 441 471 347 318 312 272 244 Jun '96 | 430 441 474 360 339 322 275 240 Jul '96 | 430 441 474 370 347 335 281 229 | 1995/96 | 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 | Aug '96 | 446 441 491 346 330 314 265 213 Sep '96 | 452 441 478 341 331 311 264 216 Oct '96 | 449 433 474 324 330 293 250 208 Nov '96 | 438 430 463 325 327 293 248 206 Dec '96 | 430 430 463 330 325 298 253 205 Jan '97 | 435 424 474 367 334 332 277 218 Feb '97 | 455 402 485 359 321 320 270 226 Mar '97 | 463 397 485 341 315 302 261 231 Apr '97 | 463 397 485 319 301 285 252 220 May '97 | 463 397 485 335 315 300 257 215 Jun '97 | 463 397 485 335 324 299 255 221 Jul '97 | 446 397 485 332 327 296 256 215 | 1996/97 | 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 | Aug '97 | 430 397 474 296 314 265 237 209 Sep '97 | 419 397 463 280 304 254 231 203 Oct '97 8/| 419 397 463 276 303 251 227 198 | 1997/98 8/| 423 397 467 284 307 257 231 203 ========================================================= 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ 100 percent broken. 7/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 8/ Preliminary. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1991/92 to present 1/ ========================================================= | | 1996/97 1997/98 Item | 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96| 2/ 3/ ========================================================= | | LONG-GRAIN | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.113 2.408 2.102 2.410 2.335 | 1.980 Harvested | 2.023 2.372 2.028 2.379 2.312 | 1.964 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 5,395 5,397 5,082 5,609 5,265 | 5,777 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.4 | 10.1 14.1 Production | 109.1 128.0 103.1 133.4 121.7 | 113.5 125.4 Imports | 4.7 5.4 6.2 6.0 6.3 | 8.7 9.0 Total supply | 125.4 146.4 130.9 154.5 142.4 | 132.3 148.5 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 61.4 60.8 67.2 60.3 66.7 | 63.3 68.8 Exports | 51.0 64.0 48.6 79.8 65.6 | 55.0 66.0 Total use | 112.4 124.8 115.8 140.1 132.3 | 118.3 134.8 | | Ending stocks | 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.4 10.1 | 14.1 13.7 | | | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 11.6 17.3 13.0 10.3 7.6 | 11.9 10.1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN | | Million acres | | | Planted | 0.771 0.768 0.818 0.943 0.786 | .839 Harvested | 0.758 0.760 0.805 0.937 0.781 | .835 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 6,627 6,795 6,590 6,866 6,676 | 6,929 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 | 14.3 12.1 Production | 50.2 51.6 53.0 64.3 52.1 | 57.9 54.0 Imports | 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.2 | 1.2 1.0 Total supply | 62.4 64.8 70.9 75.0 69.5 | 73.1 67.1 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 34.1 35.9 34.3 39.6 37.8 | 39.6 39.1 Exports | 15.4 13.0 26.6 19.6 17.4 | 21.4 19.0 Total use | 49.5 48.9 60.9 59.2 55.3 | 61.0 58.1 | | Ending stocks | 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 14.3 | 12.1 9.0 | | | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 26.1 32.4 16.4 26.7 25.9 | 19.8 15.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | Million hundredweight | Ending stocks | | difference 1/ | 1.4 2.0 0.7 1.1 0.6 | 0.9 1.0 ========================================================= 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the stock total for all types of rice in table 1. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. END_OF_FILE