RICE OUTLOOK Nobember 12, 1997 November 1997, RCS-1197 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20005-4788. This report is only available electronically, except the Yearbook edition, which is available in printed form or on diskette. Call 1-800-999-6779 to order. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o The U.S. season-average farm price range was raised to 9.25 to 10.25 per cwt, up 25 cents on both the high and low end, a result of continued high prices through the first 3 months of the market year. o The 1997 U.S. rice crop is projected at 180 million cwt, up slightly from last month's projection and 5 percent larger than the 1996 crop. o The 1997 yield is estimated at 5,926 pounds per acre, up 19 pounds from last month's projection but more than 3 percent below 1996's record 6,121. o The 1997/98 global rice crop is projected to be a record 381.9 million tons (milled basis), up over 1 million tons from last month's projection--primarily due to increased crop projections for China--and almost 3 million tons larger than the 1996/97 crop. YIELDS BELOW 1996 RECORDS ACROSS THE SOUTH The 1997 U.S. rough rice crop is pegged at 180 million hundredweight (cwt), up slightly from last month's forecast and 5 percent larger than the 1996 crop. While more than 9 percent below 1994's record 197.8 million cwt, this year's crop is virtually tied with 1992 for the third largest on record. The 1997 yield is estimated at 5,926 pounds per acre, 19 pounds above last month's estimate but more than 3 percent below the 1996 record of 6,121 pounds. The 1997 yield would be the third highest on record. This year's strong yield is largely driven by record yields in California resulting from very favorable weather throughout the growing season. In contrast, across the South yields are lower than last year's records due to weather related difficulties--late planting in Texas, and a cool wet spring that delayed emergence and harvest in much of the Delta. In addition, abnormally hot weather in Arkansas during July may have hindered crop development in that State. The decline from the 1996 record U.S. yield is partly due to a shift in share of planted acreage from the high yielding California medium grain rice to the lower yielding southern long grain. The year-to-year increase in crop size results from increased planted area. The June Acreage report indicated total planted area up 246,000 acres--nearly 9 percent--from 1996. Long grain was reported up 303,000 acres--or over 15 percent--from 1996 and medium grain down 62,000 acres or 7.5 percent. All of the drop in medium grain area was in the South. California medium grain area was reported up over 1 percent from 1996. In the South, long grain plantings rose 302,000 acres while medium grain area dropped 69,000. Short grain planting was reported at 20,000 acres, up 5,000 from 1996. California has a projected yield of 8,500 pounds per acre, over 13 percent higher than 1996, and tied with record yields achieved in 1992 and 1994. Early planting and a cooler than typical season this year in California have boosted yields. Arkansas--which produces over 40 percent of the U.S. crop--has an estimated yield of 5,600 pounds. Although 9 percent below last year's record, it is still the third highest on record. The average yield in Mississippi is projected to be 5,500 pounds, 500 pounds below 1996's record. Missouri--the smallest rice producing State--has a projected yield of 5,400 pounds, down 150 pounds from its 1996 record. A cool wet spring delayed emergence in much of the Delta, likely contributing to the lower yields. Louisiana is projected to achieve an average yield of 4,800 pounds per acre, up 150 pounds from last month's projection but 74 pounds below the 1996 record. Louisiana extension specialists state that this year yields on the "ratoon" or partial second crop have averaged higher than typical. Louisiana is a low yielding State due to higher incidence of disease and problems with weeds and blackbirds. Texas, which experienced extremely late plantings, is projected to achieve a yield of 5,600 pounds, down 100 pounds from last month's projection and nearly 10 percent below last year's record. Late plantings are typically associated with more disease, weed, and insect problems than early planted rice. In addition, few Texas producers were able to harvest a ratoon crop due to the cold wet spring weather that delayed plantings. All States except Texas are projected to produce larger crops in 1997 than last year. The California crop is pegged at a record 43.6 million cwt, over 16 percent larger than last year. Arkansas is projected to produce 74.9 million cwt, up 4 percent from last year but still below the State's 1994 record of 80.9 million cwt. Mississippi's crop is projected at more than 14.7 million cwt, up 18 percent from 1996. Missouri's crop is projected at 5.1 million cwt, up almost 3 percent from last year. Louisiana's crop is projected at 27.1 million cwt, up 3 percent from last month's projection and over 4 percent larger than the 1996 crop. The Texas crop is projected at 14.5 million cwt, down nearly 2 percent from last month's projection. The 1997 Texas crop would be 21 percent below last year and the smallest since 1983. Total U.S. supplies for 1997/98 are projected at 217.1 million cwt, up slightly from last month's projection and over 5 percent above a year earlier. NASS reported August 1 stocks of 27.1 million cwt, up almost 2.1 million from a year earlier. Imports remain projected at a record 10 million cwt, nearly unchanged from 1996/97. U.S. ROUGH RICE EXPORTS PROJECTED TO EXPAND 20 PERCENT IN 1997/98 Total U.S. rice use is projected at 192.9 million cwt in 1997/98, almost 8 percent higher than a year earlier. The bulk of the expansion is due to an 11-percent increase in exports to 85 million cwt. Greater supplies and lower prices are responsible for the expected expansion in U.S. exports. Rough rice exports--with Latin America accounting for the bulk of shipments--are projected to increase almost 20 percent from 1996/97 to 15 million cwt and account for nearly 18 percent of total U.S. rice exports. Many Latin American countries prefer to import rough rice instead of milled rice to better utilize domestic mill capacity and typically apply a lower tariff to rough rice than milled rice. The United States is one of very few rice exporting countries to allow rough rice exporters. In fact, none of the major Asian rice exporters ship any significant quantities of rough rice. Weather related difficulties this year have adversely impacted crops in several Latin American countries, resulting in greater imports. Food use remains projected at 83 million cwt, up 3 million from a year earlier. Brewers' use remains projected at 15.4 million cwt, unchanged from 1996/97. Ending stocks for 1997/98 are projected to be 24.2 million cwt, up over 2 percent from last month's forecast but down 11 percent from a year earlier as the larger crop and greater beginning stocks are more than offset by greater total use. The stocks-to-use ratio for 1997/98 is projected to be 12.5 percent, up from the 12.2 projection last month but well below the 15.1 percent of 1996/97. The 1997/98 stocks and stocks-to-use ratio would be the lowest since 1980/81. A breakdown of crop by grain type indicates a long grain crop of 125.8 million cwt, up slightly from last month's forecast and 11 percent higher than the 1996 crop. Combined medium and short grain production, projected at 54.1 million cwt, is up slightly from last month's projection but down over 6 percent from 1996. All of the medium grain decline is in the South. Long grain exports are projected at 66 million cwt, 20 percent higher than in 1996/97--a result of larger projected supplies, lower prices for milled rice, and strong international demand for rough rice. Long grain rice accounts for the bulk of U.S. rough rice exports. Long grain domestic use is projected at 68.8 million cwt, up almost 9 percent from 1996/97. Medium and short grain domestic use is projected at 39.1 million cwt, down slightly from last year. Medium grain exports are projected at 19 million cwt, 11 percent below the 21.4 million exported in 1996/97. Long grain ending stocks are projected at 14.1 million cwt, up 3 percent from last month's projection and nearly unchanged from a year earlier. The long grain stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 10.4 percent, up slightly from last month's projection but down almost 13 percent from a year earlier. For medium grain, ending stocks are projected at 9.1 million cwt, up slightly from last month's forecast but 24 percent below 1996/97. The medium grain stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 15.7 percent, up slightly from last month's projection but well below the 19.8 percent of 1996/97. This is the third straight year of declining stocks and stocks-to-use ratios for medium grain rice. MONTHLY U.S. FARM PRICES REMAIN FIRM The 1997/98 (August-July) season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected to be $9.25 to $10.25 per cwt, up 25 cents on both the high and low end from last month's projection. The midpoint is just 15 cents below 1996/97's estimated price of $9.90. The 1996/97 price was up over 8 percent from 1995/96, and is the highest season-average farm price since 1980/81. Expectations of relatively strong export demand for high-quality U.S. long grain rice--especially for rough rice--and continued strong domestic food use will limit any price decrease associated with larger supplies and the drop in world trading prices. U.S. farm level rice prices have averaged slightly under $10 a cwt since January 1997 and have remained strong through the first half of October. Last month, USDA estimated October's midmonth price at $9.83 and lowered September's to $9.85 from a preliminary $9.98. For the season-average price to equal the midpoint of the projected range, monthly prices must average $9.71 the remainder of the season. The bulk of the 1997 harvest occurred in September and October. U.S. rice exports and sales commitments were about 8 percent ahead of last year's pace through October 31, according to the U.S. Export Sales report of November 6, 1997. Primary destinations have been the EU, Mexico, Japan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Colombia, Panama, Peru, Ghana, South Africa, Guatemala, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Cote d'Ivoire, Iraq, and Jordan. INTERNATIONAL PRICES POST SMALL RISE International prices for most grades of rice posted small increases for the week ending November 10, largely due to a slight rise in the value of the Thai currency and some new buying interest. During that week, prices for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were quoted at $265 per ton, up from an average of $252 a week earlier. However, prices for most grades of Thai rice fell throughout October as the Thai currency continued its fall that began in July and little new export activity emerged. International prices began to slide in early July when Thailand allowed its currency to float (leading to substantial devaluation vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar) and export activity contracted. The $265 offer quotes for high-quality Thai rice in early November are down from a $275 average in October and an average of $280 in September. The Thai price had averaged nearly $335 per ton from May through July. Thai prices rose a little in the second-half of September, reaching $291 by the end of the month, due to purchases by Japan, Nigeria, and Iran, as well as expectations of sales to the Philippines. But prices started declining again in early October and drop throughout that month in response to a further slide in the value of the Thai currency and a lack of significant fresh export business. World rice prices are also being impacted by new-crop harvest in Indian and Pakistan and the impending Thai main-crop harvest expected to begin later this month. Prices for parboiled rice declined at a slower pace than other grades of Thai rice--dropping just $21 to $312 per ton from early July through September for 5 percent parboiled--due to strong demand from Iran and Nigeria. During the same time, the price for Thai grade B dropped almost $45 per ton. But prices for 5 percent parboiled--as well as other grades--plummeted during October in the face of little new export activity and had dropped to $252 per ton by the beginning of November. Like other grades of rice, parboiled prices rose slightly in early November as the Thai currency strengthened. Vietnam, a major competitor of Thailand, did not start cutting its prices until mid-September. At the start of that month, Thai prices had fallen to near Vietnamese prices, eliminating any price advantage for Vietnamese rice. During the rest of September and most of October, continued price cutting allowed Vietnam to maintain a $30 to $40 price advantage over Thai rice. But October's plummet in Thai prices left Vietnam's prices just $10 a ton lower than Thailand's for similar quality rice by the beginning of November, giving Vietnam very little price advantage. Last week's rise in Thai prices has given Vietnam about a $20 per ton price discount to Thai rice for better grades of rice, and a $10-$15 discount for most other grades. Prices for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice--No. 2, 4-percent brokens, offer quotes f.o.b. Houston--have remained at $419 since mid-August after declining from $441 per ton in mid-July. Prices had been steady at $463 since mid-February. A slowdown in milled rice exports during the summer was responsible for the price drop. For the 1996/97 market year, the season average price for this grade of rice was $450 per ton, the highest since 1981/82. The increasing share of U.S. exports accounted for by rough rice partly accounts for the relative strength of farm prices since the beginning of 1997 despite the drop in milled rice prices. The estimated U.S. price premium over Thai rice has averaged about $160 a ton this month, up from $144 in October and $139 in September as the Thai price has fallen substantially. Several years ago, U.S. rice had been viewed as competitive in world markets with a premium of $30-$50 over Thai rice. However, in recent years this level has likely risen due to some shifting of the U.S. export market to the Western Hemisphere--where Thailand competes in few markets, a greater share of U.S. exports accounted for by rough rice, and limited world supplies of high-quality long grain rice. Prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, f.o.b.) have remained at $397 a ton since mid-February after dropping from $419 in early February and from $430 in mid-January. The decline was primarily due to an 11-percent increase in the 1996 U.S. medium grain crop from a year earlier. The Australian harvest of a record medium grain crop this year has also pressured global medium grain prices. And California's 1997 crop--of which over 95 percent has been medium grain in recent years--is projected to be a record. Japan's minimum access purchases are scheduled to increase in 1997/98 (April-March) to 531,000 metric tons (brown rice basis), likely adding strength to California medium grain prices. Except for a small increase in late June resulting from greater demand for Thai rice, prices for lower quality rice have essentially dropped since March. Quotes for A.1 Special (100 percent brokens, f.o.b. Bangkok) have averaged around $180 a ton thus far in November, about $15 below October's average. Weak demand and ample supplies are behind this year's price slide. Like other grades of Thai rice, prices for A.1 Special plummeted during October, but have risen slightly since, largely due to the strengthening of the Thai currency. RECORD GLOBAL PRODUCTION PROJECTED FOR 1997/98 For 1997/98, world rice production is projected to be a record 381.9 million tons (milled basis), up over 1 million tons from last month's forecast and nearly 3 million tons larger than the revised 1996/97 crop. Foreign production is projected to be 376 million tons, up 2.7 million from 1996/97, while the U.S. crop is projected to rise 5 percent to 5.88 million tons. World consumption is projected to be a record 381.2 million tons, up almost 6 million tons from 1996/97, but more than 700,000 tons short of production. Ending stocks are projected at 54.6 million tons, up over 2 percent from last month's projection and more than 1 percent higher than a year earlier. The offsetting combination of larger global stocks and record use result in a stocks-to-use ratio of 14.3 percent, barely below a year earlier. The roughly 1 million-ton increase in 1997/98 world production from last month's projection is primarily due to a 1-million-ton increase in China's crop to 137 million tons (milled basis), a result of higher yields. Elsewhere in Asia, Cambodia's crop was lowered 100,000 tons to 2.1 million as a result of flooding which reduced yields. Crop projections for several African countries were raised from last month based on new area and yield data. Madagascar's crop was revised up 150,000 tons to 1.7 million due to higher yields. Mali's crop was raised 100,000 tons to 400,000 as a result of larger area. Both higher yield and area are behind a 40,000 ton increase in Mozambique's projected crop to 120,000 tons. Ghana's crop was raised 25,000 tons to 125,000 as a result of higher area and yield. Projections for Burkina's and Chad's crops were also raised. The new area and yield data resulted in reduced crop projections for several other African countries. The largest downward revision was for Tanzania, whose crop was lowered 100,000 tons to 400,000 due to a reduction of 75,000 hectares in planted area to 400,000 hectares. Guinea's crop was lowered 85,000 tons to 450,000 due to a very large reduction in area. Historical crop data for Guinea was revised to reflect FAO data. Senegal's projected crop was lowered 20,000 tons to 90,000 due to lower yields. Global 1996/97 production is estimated to be 379 million tons, down 1 million tons from last month's projection but up 2 percent from 1995/96 and second only to the 1997/98 crop. The month-to-month revision is largely the result of a 900,000 ton drop in Indonesia's estimated crop to 32 million tons. The reduced total crop is due to smaller estimates for Indonesia's third--and smallest--crop, typically harvested in the late summer and early fall. The third crop was adversely impacted by severe dryness caused by lateness in the arrival of the Asian Monsoon, a result of this year's El Nino. An El Nino is an above average warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean that is often associated with drought and flooding in parts of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. In addition to reducing the size of the 1996/97 third crop harvest, the drought has delayed planting of Indonesia's 1997/98 main season crop--typically harvested in February and March. The late planting will likely push the harvest into the spring. Flooding led to a reduction in Cambodia's 1996/97 crop to just under 2.1 million tons, down from the prior forecast of 2.2 million. The new area and yield data for several African countries resulted in some crops being revised downward. Guinea's crop was reduced 86,000 tons to 450,000 due to a massive reduction in estimated area. Senegal's crop was lowered 13,000 tons to 97,000 as a result of lower yields. All three of these countries' 1997/98 crops were lowered as well. In contrast, 1996/97 crop projections for five African countries were raised. Burkina's crop was raised 23,000 tons to 75,000 in response to a 50-percent increase in area to 60,000 hectares. Mali's crop was raised 13,000 tons to 310,000 due to greater area. An upward revision of 10,000 tons was made in Mozambique's crop to 90,000 tons; a result of both higher yield and area. Ghana's crop was raised 10,000 tons to 130,000, mostly due to higher yields. Chad's crop was raised slightly to 55,000 tons due to greater area. All five of these countries' 1997/98 crop projections were raised as well. The year-to-year increase in 1996/97 world production resulted from record and near-record crops in some Asian countries and in certain smaller, non-Asian countries. China posted the largest year-to-year increase, with a near-record 136.6 million ton crop, up over 5 percent from 1995/96, the result of higher yields and an increase in area. Vietnam, the Philippines, Australia, Argentina, the European Union (EU), and Uruguay harvested record crops in 1996/97. Total use for 1996/97 is projected at over 375 million tons (milled), second only to the projection for 1997/98 and up over 1 percent from 1995/96. With production exceeding use, ending stocks rose almost 8 percent to 53.9 million tons. The 1996/97 stocks-to-use ratio was almost 14.4 percent, up from 13.5 the previous year. GLOBAL RICE TRADE IS PROJECTED TO EXPAND IN 1998 Global rice trade is projected at over 19.2 million tons (milled) in 1998, up 250,000 tons from last month's projection and almost 7 percent higher than this year. Trade in 1998 would be the third highest after 1995 and 1996. The only month-to-month export revision was a 250,000-ton increase in India's exports to 1.75 million tons to match an identical revision in this year's exports. On the import side, Indonesia's imports were revised up 500,000 tons to 1.5 million in response to a drought which has delayed planting of the 1997/98 main-season crop until late November at the earliest, thus requiring Indonesia to use its rice stocks longer than typical. Several major importers are projected to increase rice trade in 1998, with many taking 1 million tons or more. Indonesia's 1.5 million tons is the largest projection for 1998, more than double this year's imports of 600,000 tons. Iran is ranked second, with imports projected to be 1.25 million tons, up 250,000 tons from 1997, a result of rising consumption outstripping production growth. China's imports are projected at 1 million tons, up 400,000 from this year based on expectations of larger imports of fragrant rice from Thailand, which was in short supply in 1997. The Philippines is projected to import 1 million tons, up 250,000 from 1997's revision. Several other countries are expected to import more rice in 1998. Senegal's imports are projected up 100,000 tons from 1997 to 500,000 in response to a smaller crop, declining stocks, and a drop in imports in 1997. Peru is expected to post a 150,000-ton increase, to 350,000, following a drop in imports in 1997. A smaller 1997/98 crop is behind a 50,000-ton increase in the EU's imports to 700,000. Japan's and South Korea's imports are expected to rise as the WTO-mandated minimum access import requirements increase. On the export side, Thailand's exports are projected to rebound 450,000 tons from this year to 5.25 million in 1998, primarily due to a larger crop. Vietnam's exports are projected at 3.5 million tons--a record--and up 250,000 from this year based on expectations of another record crop. India's exports are projected to remain at 1997's revised level of 1.75 million tons. Pakistan's exports are projected to rise 50,000 tons to 1.7 million, a result of a slightly larger crop expected in 1997/98. U.S. exports are projected to increase 400,000 tons to 2.8 million, also the result of a larger crop. In contrast, Australia's exports are expected to decline 50,000 tons in 1998, due to a more than 15-percent decline in production from 1996/97. Trade for 1997 is projected at more than 18 million tons, up 250,000 tons from last month's projection, but down nearly 8 percent from 1996. On the export side, India's projected exports were raised 250,000 tons to 1.75 million based on sales to date. In contrast, U.S. exports were lowered 100,000 tons to 2.4 million based on a slowness in exports in August. On the import side, Malaysia's imports were raised 50,000 tons to 600,000 based on the pace of shipments to date. Sri Lanka's imports were raised 50,000 tons to 200,000 based on the pace of sales to date. Imports by Tanzania and Mauritania were each raised 25,000 tons. In contrast, Indonesia's imports were lowered 150,000 tons to 600,000 based on sales to date and the expectation that 1997 imports are virtually complete. Imports by the Philippines were lowered 150,000 tons to 750,000 based on sales to date and the expectation that the country will likely postpone and future imports until 1998. Note: Printed copies of the 1996 Rice Yearbook are available. To order, call 1-800-999-6779. The ERS Auto Fax number has been changed to (202) 694-5700. ****************************************************************************** * INFORMATION CONTACT AT THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE: * Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292 * Next month's Rice Outlook will be available on December 12, 1997. ****************************************************************************** Note: Detailed 1997/98 foreign supply and use forecasts are published on November 13 in the Foreign Agricultural Service's Grain: World Markets and Trade. Tables: Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1991/92 to present Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1995/96 to present Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1995/96 to present Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1992/93 to present Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1991/92 to present Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1991/92 to present 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | 1996/97 1997/98 Item | 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 | 2/ 3/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | TOTAL RICE | Percent | | | | | ARP | 5 0 5 0 5 | N/A N/A | | Area | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.884 3.176 2.920 3.353 3.121 | 2.819 3.065 Harvested | 2.781 3.132 2.833 3.316 3.093 | 2.799 3.037 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 5,731 5,736 5,510 5,964 5,621 | 6,121 5,926 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.3 | 25.0 27.1 Production | 159.4 179.7 156.1 197.8 173.9 | 171.3 180.0 Imports | 5.3 6.1 6.9 7.3 7.4 | 10.0 10.0 Total supply | 189.3 213.2 202.5 230.9 212.6 | 206.4 217.1 | | Food | 67.1 69.0 71.2 74.0 77.0 | 80.0 83.0 Seed | 4.1 3.8 4.3 4.1 3.7 | 4.0 4.0 Brewers' use | 15.4 15.1 14.3 14.5 15.6 | 15.4 15.4 Residual 4/ | 8.8 8.8 11.6 8.2 8.3 | 3.4 5.5 Domestic use | 95.5 96.7 101.4 100.7 104.6 | 102.8 107.9 | | Exports | 66.4 77.0 75.2 98.9 83.0 | 76.4 85.0 Rough | 6.3 5.2 3.5 17.7 10.6 | 12.6 15.0 Milled 5/ | 60.1 71.8 71.8 81.2 72.4 | 63.8 70.0 Total use | 161.9 173.7 176.7 199.6 187.6 | 179.2 192.9 | | Ending | | stocks | 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.3 25.0 | 27.1 24.2 CCC stocks | 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 Free stocks | 27.0 39.3 25.8 31.2 25.0 | 27.1 24.2 | | | Percent | | | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 16.9 22.7 14.6 15.7 13.3 | 15.1 12.5 | | | $/cwt | $9.25 Average farm | | to price 6/ | $7.58 $5.89 $7.98 $6.78 $9.15 | $9.90 $10.25 | | | Percent | Average | | milling rate | 70.5 70.0 74.0 74.1 71.4 | 72.0 72.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Marketing year weighted average price received by farmers. Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1995/96 to present ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 | --------------------- ------------------- ------------------- Month | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | August | 9.94 9,177 9.99 10,520 7.64 9,935 September | 9.85 12,204 9.95 13,478 7.95 12,010 October | 9.83 1/ 10,691 1/ 9.75 11,988 8.77 12,493 November | 9.36 11,768 9.12 12,951 December | 9.63 12,758 9.36 12,503 January | 9.87 15,927 9.33 13,130 February | 10.10 12,086 9.10 11,898 March | 10.20 10,133 9.31 14,690 April | 10.20 9,902 9.34 13,562 May | 10.10 7,969 9.69 11,538 June | 9.88 7,092 9.74 9,500 July | 10.00 9,421 9.68 10,142 | Average 2/ | 9.87 10,691 9.90 11,087 9.15 12,029 | Total 3/ | 9.25 to 32,072 133,042 144,352 | 10.25 4/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Preliminary midmonth price estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1997/98 is for August to current month. 3/ Total volume marketed; 1997/98 is August to date only. 4/ USDA price range. Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1995/96 to present 1/ ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 Month | -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | $/cwt | August | 8.28 7.17 7.30 7.69 7.84 7.96 7.93 6.22 6.06 September | 7.72 7.31 7.44 7.56 7.81 7.93 8.02 6.30 6.13 October | 7.84 7.50 7.64 7.39 7.73 7.85 8.81 6.67 6.51 November | 7.98 7.52 7.66 2/ 7.09 7.58 7.70 8.47 6.82 6.63 December | 7.15 7.63 7.74 8.17 7.16 6.95 January | 7.41 7.65 7.78 8.11 7.19 7.13 February | 7.47 7.57 7.75 7.90 7.49 7.67 March | 7.18 7.49 7.67 7.97 7.38 7.55 April | 6.91 7.16 7.33 7.68 7.25 7.42 May | 8.11 7.14 7.29 7.38 7.17 7.35 June | 8.23 7.04 7.18 7.64 7.42 7.60 July | 8.30 6.88 7.01 7.79 7.82 8.01 | Average 3/| 7.95 7.38 7.51 2/ 7.54 7.46 7.60 7.99 7.07 7.08 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Loan rate basis (rough); the repayment rate was the lower of the loan level for the crop or the higher of the prevailing world market price or the minimum repayment level. For the 1989 through 1995 crops, the minimum loan repayment levels were 70 percent of the loan level. The minimum loan repayment level has been eliminated for 1996-crop loans, and loans are repayable at the lower of the loan level or the prevailing world price. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1992/93 to present 1/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1997/98| 1996/97 | Country |--------|-------- 1996/97| 1995/96 1994/95 1993/94 1992/93 or | as of | as of | region |10/31/97|10/31/96 Final | Final Final Final Final -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1,000 metric tons European Union | 140 | 167 342 | 417 474 362 391 Other Western Europe | 14 | 8 16 | 19 22 17 22 Turkey | 17 | 63 202 | 187 259 67 191 Eastern Europe | 0 | 0 4 | 34 58 10 46 Former Soviet Union | 0 | 15 23 | 37 18 4 15 | | | Japan | 60 | 54 212 | 192 2 568 0 | | | OTHER ASIA AND | | | THE MIDDLE EAST | 84 | 157 315 | 344 525 347 438 Iran | 0 | 0 0 | 72 191 121 130 Iraq | 30 | 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 Saudi Arabia | 38 | 67 168 | 130 153 157 205 Jordan | 0 | 35 22 | 56 62 1 33 Syria | 5 | 11 25 | 1 28 0 0 | | | AFRICA | 78 | 81 205 | 324 257 257 315 Republic of | | | South Africa | 23 | 34 114 | 147 113 90 111 Cote d'Ivoire | 30 | 18 31 | 82 57 67 92 Ghana | 23 | 11 33 | 48 7 0 11 | | | WESTERN HEMISPHERE | 550 | 394 934 | 1,010 1,585 513 663 Canada | 62 | 63 109 | 107 127 91 98 Colombia | 10 | 0 34 | 28 0 0 0 Costa Rica | 18 | 0 55 | 110 65 46 18 Dominican Republic | 20 | 0 19 | 3 40 0 0 El Salvador | 53 | 10 22 | 30 37 5 6 Guatemala | 27 | 0 32 | 31 23 5 15 Haiti | 40 | 35 86 | 121 148 43 117 Honduras | 34 | 23 52 | 30 29 1 2 Jamaica | 13 | 23 28 | 80 74 63 30 Mexico | 107 | 102 309 | 318 327 177 249 Nicaragua | 7 | 21 68 | 29 39 0 22 Peru | 40 | 36 46 | 36 77 3 34 | | | | | Total | 973 | 902 2,254 | 2,564 3,201 2,149 2,075 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | | Census Bureau 2/ |2,780 4/| 2,500 4/ | 2,790 3,723 2,521 2,673 Difference 3/ | 344 5/| | 226 522 372 598 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Note: The "U.S. Export Sales" reports sales and shipments in product weight. The milled equivalent total may vary significantly from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales," FAS, USDA. Columns labeled "as of" represent combined exports plus sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census Bureau rice export total (reported on a product-weight basis) is the official export total. 3/ The "U.S. Export Sales" report does not include U.S. Government exports under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 4/ USDA forecast, milled equivalent basis. 5/ The average difference between exports reported by the U.S. Census Bureau and exports reported in "U.S. Export Sales" for 1992/93-1995/96. Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Month | --------------------------- ------------------------------------- or | Long Medium marketing | grain 3/ grain 4/ Parboiled 100% 5% par- 15% 35% A.1 6/ year 1/ | Houston Calif. Houston grade B boiled broken broken special ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | $/metric ton 7/ | 1986/87 | 240 282 311 190 171 173 154 122 1987/88 | 422 366 485 273 261 256 236 204 1988/89 | 323 361 386 292 276 275 256 232 1989/90 | 342 352 400 292 259 262 220 172 1990/91 | 331 347 400 296 270 261 214 165 1991/92 | 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 | 322 383 348 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 | 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 1994/95 | 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 | Aug '95 | 386 364 419 346 343 327 310 288 Sep '95 | 386 380 424 368 354 346 322 285 Oct '95 | 430 432 485 393 373 372 340 293 Nov '95 | 441 441 463 354 342 334 315 296 Dec '95 | 419 496 463 347 337 326 307 278 Jan '96 | 410 507 454 372 355 350 321 271 Feb '96 | 402 474 449 377 357 348 307 256 Mar '96 | 397 463 441 373 350 344 301 260 Apr '96 | 406 459 454 342 316 310 272 245 May '96 | 430 441 471 347 318 312 272 244 Jun '96 | 430 441 474 360 339 322 275 240 Jul '96 | 430 441 474 370 347 335 281 229 | 1995/96 | 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 | Aug '96 | 446 441 491 346 330 314 265 213 Sep '96 | 452 441 478 341 331 311 264 216 Oct '96 | 449 433 474 324 330 293 250 208 Nov '96 | 438 430 463 325 327 293 248 206 Dec '96 | 430 430 463 330 325 298 253 205 Jan '97 | 435 424 474 367 334 332 277 218 Feb '97 | 455 402 485 359 321 320 270 226 Mar '97 | 463 397 485 341 315 302 261 231 Apr '97 | 463 397 485 319 301 285 252 220 May '97 | 463 397 485 335 315 300 257 215 Jun '97 | 463 397 485 335 324 299 255 221 Jul '97 | 446 397 485 332 327 296 256 215 | 1996/97 | 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 | Aug '97 | 430 397 474 296 314 265 237 209 Sep '97 | 419 397 463 280 304 254 231 203 Oct '97 | 419 397 463 275 280 249 224 192 Nov '97 8/| 419 397 463 252 252 228 203 175 | 1997/98 8/| 422 397 466 276 287 249 224 195 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ 100 percent broken. 7/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 8/ Preliminary. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1991/92 to present 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | 1996/97 1997/98 Item | 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96| 2/ 3/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | LONG-GRAIN | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.113 2.408 2.102 2.410 2.335 | 1.980 Harvested | 2.023 2.372 2.028 2.379 2.312 | 1.964 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 5,395 5,397 5,082 5,609 5,265 | 5,777 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.4 | 10.1 14.1 Production | 109.1 128.0 103.1 133.4 121.7 | 113.5 125.8 Imports | 4.7 5.4 5.9 6.3 6.3 | 8.7 9.0 Total supply | 125.4 146.4 130.6 154.8 142.4 | 132.3 148.9 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 61.4 59.0 59.9 60.1 67.4 | 63.3 68.8 Exports | 51.0 65.8 55.6 80.3 64.9 | 55.0 66.0 Total use | 112.4 124.8 115.5 140.4 132.3 | 118.3 134.8 | | Ending stocks | 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.4 10.1 | 14.1 14.1 | | | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 11.6 17.3 13.0 10.3 7.6 | 11.9 10.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN | | Million acres | | | Planted | 0.771 0.768 0.818 0.943 0.786 | .839 Harvested | 0.758 0.760 0.805 0.937 0.781 | .835 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 6,627 6,795 6,590 6,866 6,676 | 6,929 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 | 14.3 12.1 Production | 50.2 51.6 53.0 64.3 52.1 | 57.9 54.1 Imports | 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.2 | 1.2 1.0 Total supply | 62.4 64.8 71.2 75.0 69.5 | 73.1 67.2 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 34.1 37.7 41.6 40.6 37.2 | 39.6 39.1 Exports | 15.4 11.2 19.6 18.6 18.1 | 21.4 19.0 Total use | 49.5 48.9 61.2 59.2 55.3 | 61.0 58.1 | | Ending stocks | 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 14.3 | 12.1 9.1 | | | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 26.1 32.4 16.3 26.7 25.9 | 19.8 15.7 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | Million hundredweight | Ending stocks | | difference 1/ | 1.4 2.0 0.7 1.1 0.6 | 0.9 1.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the stock total for all types of rice in table 1. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. END_OF_FILE