RICE OUTLOOK December 12, 1997 December 1997, Issue number RCS-1297 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued monthly by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. This report and others in this series (COTTON & WOOL OUTLOOK, FEED OUTLOOK, OIL CROPS OUTLOOK, and WHEAT OUTLOOK) are only available electronically; there is no published version of these reports. For further information on our products and services, please call the ERS Information Center at (202) 694-5050. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o U.S. rice exports are projected at 83 million cwt in 1997/98, down 2 million cwt from last month's forecast, but almost 9 percent higher than in 1996/97. o U.S. ending stocks for 1997/98 are projected at 26.2 million cwt, up 2 million cwt from last month's projection, but more than 3 percent below a year earlier. o The U.S. season-average farm price range remains 9.25 to 10.25 per cwt, with the midpoint 15 cents below the 1996/97 season-average price of $9.90. o The 1997/98 global rice crop is projected to be a record 382.7 million tons (milled basis), up 760,000 tons from last month's projection--primarily due to increased projections for South and North Korea--and almost 3.8 million tons larger than the 1996/97 crop. STRONG ROUGH RICE EXPORTS MAINTAIN FIRM U.S. FARM PRICES... Farm prices for long grain rice remain firm, largely due to strong U.S. rough rice exports during the first 4 months of the 1997/98 market year. Through November 20, combined exports and outstanding sales of U.S. rough rice totaled nearly 10 million cwt, almost double a year earlier. Major buyers since the start of the market year have been Mexico, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Ecuador, Honduras, Guatemala, Colombia, Panama, and Nicaragua. Virtually all of the rough rice sales to these countries were for long grain rice. Prices for California medium grain are currently quoted at more than a dollar less per cwt than prices for southern long grain rice. A record California crop and weaker export demand for medium grain this year account for the price difference. U.S. farm level prices have averaged about $10 a cwt since January 1997, although prices dropped slightly the first half of November. Last month, USDA estimated November's midmonth price at $9.69 and raised October's to $10.10 from a preliminary $9.85. The lower prices reported in early November may have been because a greater share of reported sales at that time were medium grain rice. Medium grain rice currently sells at a discount to long grain rice. For the season-average price to equal the midpoint of the projected range, monthly prices must average $9.68 the remainder of the season. The 1997/98 (August-July) season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected to be $9.25 to $10.25 per cwt, with the midpoint just 15 cents below 1996/97's $9.90. The 1996/97 price was up over 8 percent from 1995/96, and was the highest season-average farm price since 1980/81. Export demand for high-quality U.S. long grain rice--especially for rough rice--is expected to stay relatively strong. Along with the robust export demand, continued strong domestic food use will limit any price decrease associated with larger supplies and the drop in world trading prices associated with this summer's and fall's devaluation of the Thai currency. ...ALTHOUGH THE U.S. EXPORT PROJECTION WAS LOWERED FROM LAST MONTH U.S. rice exports of rice in 1997/98 are projected at 83 million cwt, down 2 million cwt from last month's projection, but still 9 percent higher than in 1996/97. Both long grain and combined medium and short grain exports were reduced 1 million cwt from last month's projections. The month-to-month downward revision was due to a slower-than-expected pace of exports through the first 4 months of the 1997/98 market year. U.S. rice exports and sales commitments were slightly behind last year's pace through December 4, according to the U.S. Export Sales report of December 11, 1997. Primary destinations for U.S. rice have been the EU, Mexico, Japan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Colombia, Panama, Peru, Ghana, South Africa, Guatemala, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Cote d'Ivoire, Iraq, and Jordan. Greater supplies and lower prices for milled rice are responsible for the expected year-to-year expansion in U.S. exports. All of the projected increase is for long grain exports which are projected at 65 million cwt, up 18 percent from 1996/97. In contrast, medium grain exports are projected at 18 million cwt, down 16 percent. Little buying interest beyond Japan's minimum access purchases and a few other regular buyers, plus a much smaller southern medium grain crop are behind the smaller export forecast this year. In September, South Korea purchased its entire 1997/98 WTO minimum access imports from China and Thailand, diminishing U.S. medium grain export prospects for 1997/98. Rough rice exports--with Latin America accounting for the bulk of shipments--are projected to increase almost 20 percent from 1996/97 to 15 million cwt and account for nearly 18 percent of total U.S. rice exports. Many Latin American countries prefer to import rough rice instead of milled rice to better utilize domestic mill capacity. They typically apply a lower tariff to rough rice imports than milled rice. The United States is one of very few rice exporting countries to allow rough rice exports. In fact, no major Asian rice exporter ships any significant quantities of rough rice. Weather-related difficulties this year have adversely affected crops in several Latin American countries, resulting in greater imports. Total U.S. rice use is projected at 190.9 million cwt in 1997/98, almost 7 percent higher than a year earlier. The bulk of the expansion is due to the 9-percent increase in exports. Food use remains projected at a record 83 million cwt, up 3 million from a year earlier. Brewers' use remains projected at 15.4 million cwt, unchanged from 1996/97. A greater share of beer sales accounted for by light beer, (which use less rice than regular beers), no increase in per capita beer consumption, and the current high rice prices all contribute to stagnant rice use in beer. Ending stocks for 1997/98 are projected to be 26.2 million cwt, up over 8 percent from last month's forecast--a result of the lowered export projection--but still down more than 3 percent from a year earlier. A larger crop and greater beginning stocks will be more than offset by higher total use. The stocks-to-use ratio for 1997/98 is projected to be 13.7 percent, up from 12.5 percent projected last month but still below the 15.1 percent of 1996/97. The 1997/98 ratio would be the second lowest since 1980/81, just behind the 13.3 percent reported for 1995/96. A breakdown of crop by grain type indicates a long grain crop of 125.8 million cwt, 11 percent higher than the 1996 crop. Combined medium and short grain production, projected at 54.1 million cwt, is down more than 6 percent from 1996. All of the medium grain decline is in the South. Long grain domestic use is projected at 68.8 million cwt, up almost 9 percent from 1996/97. Medium and short grain domestic use is projected at 39.1 million cwt, down slightly from last year. Long grain ending stocks are projected at 15.1 million cwt, up 1 million cwt from last month's projection and over 7 percent larger than a year earlier. The long grain stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 11.3 percent, up almost 9 percent from last month's projection but down slightly from a year earlier. For medium grain, ending stocks are projected at 10.1 million cwt, up 1 million cwt from last month's forecast but more than 16 percent below 1996/97. The medium grain stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 17.7 percent, up 2 percentage points from last month's projection but still below the 19.8 percent of 1996/97. This is the third straight year of declining stocks and stocks-to-use ratios for medium grain rice. The month-to-month increase in long and medium grain stocks were the result of the lower export projection. LOWER YIELDS REPORTED ACROSS THE SOUTH The 1997 U.S. rough rice crop is pegged at 180 million hundredweight (cwt), 5 percent larger than the 1996 crop. While more than 9 percent below 1994's record 197.8 million cwt, this year's crop is virtually tied with 1992 for the third largest on record. No new area and yield estimate was reported for December. The 1997 yield is estimated at 5,926 pounds per acre, more than 3 percent below the 1996 record of 6,121 pounds. The 1997 yield is the third highest on record. This year's strong yield is largely driven by record yields in California resulting from very favorable weather throughout the growing season. In contrast, across the South yields are lower than last year's records due to weather-related difficulties--late planting in Texas, and a cool, wet spring that delayed emergence and harvest in much of the Delta. In addition, abnormally hot weather in Arkansas during July may have hindered crop development in that State. The decline from the 1996 record U.S. yield is partly due to a shift in share of planted acreage from the high yielding California medium grain rice to the lower yielding southern long grain. The year-to-year increase in crop size results from increased planted area. The June Acreage report indicated total planted area up 246,000 acres--nearly 9 percent--from 1996. Long grain was reported up 303,000 acres--or over 15 percent--from 1996 and medium grain down 62,000 acres or 7.5 percent. All of the drop in medium grain area was in the South. California medium grain area was reported up over 1 percent from 1996. In the South, long grain plantings rose 302,000 acres while medium grain area dropped 69,000. Short grain planting was reported at 20,000 acres, up 5,000 from 1996. California has a projected yield of 8,500 pounds per acre, over 13 percent higher than 1996, and tied with record yields achieved in 1992 and 1994. Early planting and a cooler than typical season this year in California have boosted yields. Arkansas--which produces over 40 percent of the U.S. crop--has an estimated yield of 5,600 pounds. Although 9 percent below last year's all-time high, it is still the third highest on record. The average yield in Mississippi is projected to be 5,500 pounds, 500 pounds below 1996's record. Missouri--the smallest rice producing State--has a projected yield of 5,400 pounds, down 150 pounds from its 1996 record. Louisiana is projected to achieve an average yield of 4,800 pounds per acre, 74 pounds below the 1996 record. Louisiana extension specialists state that this year yields on the "ratoon" or partial second crop have averaged higher than typical. Texas, which experienced extremely late plantings, is projected to achieve a yield of 5,600 pounds, down 100 pounds from last month's projection and nearly 10 percent below last year's record. Late plantings are typically associated with more disease, weed, and insect problems than early planted rice. In addition, few Texas producers were able to harvest a ratoon crop due to the cold wet spring weather that delayed plantings. All States except Texas are projected to produce larger crops in 1997 than last year. The California crop is pegged at a record 43.6 million cwt, over 16 percent. Arkansas is projected to produce 74.9 million cwt, up 4 percent from last year but still below the State's 1994 record of 80.9 million cwt. Mississippi's crop is projected at more than 14.7 million cwt, up 18 percent from 1996. Missouri's crop is projected at 5.1 million cwt, up almost 3 percent. Louisiana's crop is projected at 27.1 million cwt, over 4 percent larger. The Texas crop is projected at 14.5 million cwt, 21 percent below last year and the smallest since 1983. Total U.S. supplies for 1997/98 are projected at 217.1 million cwt, over 5 percent above a year earlier. NASS reported August 1 stocks of 27.1 million cwt, up almost 2.1 million from a year earlier. Imports remain projected at a record 10 million cwt, nearly unchanged from 1996/97. Thailand accounts for nearly three-fourth's of U.S. rice imports, with most of this fragrant rice. Making up most of the remainder are India and Pakistan, which ship basmati rice to the United States, and long grain rice from Vietnam. Italy and Argentina ship small amounts of rice to the United States as well. INTERNATIONAL PRICES POST MODEST RISE International prices for most grades of rice posted modest increases at the end of November and in early December, largely due to big purchases by Indonesia and the Philippines for delivery in late 1997 and early 1998. For the week ending December 10, quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were reported at $285 per ton, up from an average of $280 a week earlier. For November, prices averaged just $261 per ton, the lowest monthly average since the summer of 1994. International prices began to slide in early July when Thailand allowed its currency to float (leading to substantial devaluation vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar) and export activity contracted. The Thai currency generally depreciated during the rest of the summer and fall, causing rice prices to drop during most of that time. The $261 average offer quotes for high-quality Thai rice in November were down from a $275 average in October, a $280 average in September, and $296 in August. The Thai price had averaged almost $335 per ton from May through July. Prices for Vietnam's rice have risen $10-$15 per ton since late November, depending on the quality. Vietnam's prices are currently $5-$10 below Thai prices for most grades. Vietnam typically sells its rice at a substantial discount to Thai rice, often $50-$80 per ton below the Thai price for similar grades of rice. Exportable supplies are scarce in Vietnam and will remain so until supplies from the next harvest become available in February and March. Prices for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice--No. 2, 4-percent brokens, offer quotes f.o.b. Houston--have remained at $419 since mid-August after declining from $441 per ton in mid-July. Prices had been steady at $463 since mid-February. A slowdown in the pace of U.S. milled rice exports in August and September, as well as an already high premium to Thai grade B price explain why there is no current upward pressure on U.S. long grain milled prices. The increasing share of U.S. exports accounted for by rough rice partly explains the relative strength of farm prices since the beginning of 1997 despite the drop in milled rice prices. The estimated U.S. price premium over Thai rice has averaged about $140 a ton this month, down from $158 in November and $144 in October. The premium widened in August and September as the Thai price began to drop. Several years ago, U.S. rice had been viewed as competitive in world markets with a premium of $30-$50 over Thai rice. However, in recent years this level has likely risen due to some shifting of the U.S. export market to the Western Hemisphere--where Thailand competes in few markets. The premium may also have increased due to rough rice's growing share of U.S. exports and limited world supplies of high-quality long grain rice. Prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, f.o.b.) have remained at $397 a ton since mid-February after dropping from $419 in early February and from $430 in mid-January. The decline was primarily due to an 11-percent increase in the 1996 U.S. medium grain crop from a year earlier, plus a record Australian 1997/98 harvest. Preventing any price increase in 1997/98 has been a record California crop and very little buying interest beyond Japan's minimum access purchases and sales to a few regular buyers. Japan has thus far purchased a little over half its 1997/98 (April-March) total minimum access imports of 531,000 metric tons (milled basis), of which the U.S. has supplied about 32 percent. The completion of these purchases by Japan will likely limit any price decrease in the medium grain market. RECORD GLOBAL PRODUCTION PROJECTED FOR 1997/98 For 1997/98, world rice production is projected to be a record 382.7 million tons (milled basis), up 760,000 tons from last month's forecast and almost 3.8 million tons larger than the 1996/97 crop. Foreign production is projected to be 376.8 million tons, up 3.5 million from 1996/97, while the U.S. crop is projected to rise 5 percent to 5.88 million tons. World consumption is projected to be a record 381 million tons, down slightly from last month's projection but up 5.1 million tons from 1996/97. With production exceeding consumption by 1.7 million tons, ending stocks are projected to rise 3 percent to 54.9 million tons, up slightly from last month's projection. The offsetting combination of larger global stocks and record use result in a stocks-to-use ratio of 14.4 percent, slightly above a year earlier, but still low enough to make prices sensitive to any production shortfall in a major consuming or producing country. The 760,000-ton increase in 1997/98 world production from last month's projection is primarily due to increases in crop projections for both Koreas. South Korea's crop was raised 550,000 tons to 5.45 million (milled basis), a result of higher yields due to very favorable weather. North Korea's crop projection was raised 250,000 tons to 1.5 million, the result of a small increase in area and a much higher yield. In addition, Kazakstan's rice crop was increased 45,000 tons to 170,000 due to higher yields. In contrast, Egypt's crop was lowered 3 percent to just under 3 million tons, totally due to reduced yields as area increased. Global 1996/97 production is estimated to be 379 million tons, up 2 percent from 1995/96 and second only to the 1997/98 projected crop. The year-to-year increase in 1996/97 world production resulted from record and near-record crops in some Asian countries and in certain smaller, non-Asian countries. China posted the largest year-to-year increase, with a near-record 136.6 million tons, up over 5 percent from 1995/96, the result of higher yields and an increase in area. Vietnam, the Philippines, Australia, Argentina, the European Union (EU), and Uruguay harvested record crops in 1996/97. Total use for 1996/97 is projected at almost 376 million tons (milled), second only to the projection for 1997/98 and up almost 6 million tons from 1995/96. With production exceeding use, ending stocks rose almost 8 percent to 53.2 million tons. The 1996/97 stocks-to-use ratio was 14.1 percent, up from 13.5 the previous year. GLOBAL RICE TRADE IS PROJECTED TO EXPAND IN 1998 Global rice trade is projected at over 19.2 million tons (milled) in 1998, virtually identical to last month's projection and almost 7 percent higher than this year. Trade would be the third highest after 1995 and 1996. Several major importers are projected to increase rice trade in 1998, with many taking 1 million tons or more. Indonesia's 1.5 million tons is the largest projection, more than double this year's revised imports of 750,000 tons. Iran is ranked second, with imports projected to be 1.25 million tons, up 250,000 tons from 1997, a result of rising consumption outstripping production growth. China's imports are projected at 1 million tons, up 500,000 from this year's revised level based on expectations of larger imports of fragrant rice from Thailand, which was in short supply in 1997. The Philippines is projected to import 1 million tons, up 250,000 from 1997. Several other countries are expected to import more rice in 1998. Senegal's imports are projected up 100,000 tons from 1997 to 500,000 in response to a smaller crop, declining stocks, and a drop in imports in 1997. Peru is expected to post a 150,000-ton increase, to 350,000, following a drop in imports in 1997 and a weak 1996/97 crop. A smaller 1997/98 crop is behind a 50,000-ton increase in the EU's imports to 700,000. Japan's and South Korea's imports are expected to rise as the WTO-mandated minimum access import requirements increase. On the export side, Thailand's exports are projected to rebound 350,000 tons from this year's revised level to 5.25 million in 1998, primarily due to a larger crop. Vietnam's exports are projected at 3.5 million tons--a record--and up 250,000 from this year based on expectations of production matching 1996/97's record crop. India's exports are projected to remain at 1997's level of 1.75 million tons. Pakistan's exports are projected to rise 50,000 tons to 1.7 million, as a slightly larger crop is expected in 1997/98. U.S. exports are projected to increase 400,000 tons to 2.8 million, also the result of a larger crop. In contrast, Australia's exports are expected to decline 50,000 tons in 1998, due to a more than 15-percent decline in production from 1996/97. Trade for 1997 is projected at almost 18.3 million tons, up 250,000 tons from last month's projection, but down more than 6 percent from 1996. On the export side, China's exports were raised 150,000 tons to 900,000 based on shipment through September and the expected pace of exports for the rest of the year. Thailand's projected exports were raised 100,000 tons to 4.9 million based on sales to date. On the import side, Indonesia's imports were raised 150,000 tons to 750,000 based on expectations of recent Thai sales arriving by the end of the year. In contrast, China's imports were revised down 100,000 tons to 500,000 based on import data through September. Reports in 1998 Because of resource constraints, ERS will publish only 6 issues of this report in 1998. The next report will be released at 4:00 PM on January 14, 1998. We will continue to publish RICE YEARBOOK, which will released on September 1, 1998. It will include both sector data and analysis of critical issues and topics. Check the ERS web site (http://www.econ.ag.gov) for the full schedule and for other publications relating to rice. If you have questions or comments about this change in our schedule, please contact Joy Harwood, Chief, Field Crops Branch (202-694-5310; jharwood@econ.ag.gov) or Fred Surls, Outlook Program Coordinator (202 694-5320; fsurls@econ.ag.gov). NOTICE: The 1997 RICE YEARBOOK will be issued later this month. Printed copies will be available in early January 1998. To order copies or to subscribe to the published version, call 1-800-999-6779. Please note that the ERS AutoFax number has been changed to (202) 694-5700. The January 1997 issue of RICE OUTLOOK will be released at 4:00 p.m. on January 14, 1998. ***************************************************************** FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT RICE OR RICE OUTLOOK, CONTACT: Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292 ***************************************************************** Note: Detailed 1997/98 foreign supply and use forecasts are published on December 15 in the Foreign Agricultural Service's Grain: World Markets and Trade. Tables: Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1991/92 to present Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1995/96 to present Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1995/96 to present Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1992/93 to present Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1991/92 to present Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1991/92 to present 1/ ====================================================== | | 1996/97 1997/98 Item | 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 | 2/ 3/ ====================================================== | | TOTAL RICE | Percent | | | | | ARP | 5 0 5 0 5 | N/A N/A | | Area | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.884 3.176 2.920 3.353 3.121 | 2.819 3.065 Harvested | 2.781 3.132 2.833 3.316 3.093 | 2.799 3.037 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 5,731 5,736 5,510 5,964 5,621 | 6,121 5,926 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.3 | 25.0 27.1 Production | 159.4 179.7 156.1 197.8 173.9 | 171.3 180.0 Imports | 5.3 6.1 6.9 7.3 7.4 | 10.0 10.0 Total supply | 189.3 213.2 202.5 230.9 212.6 | 206.4 217.1 | | Food | 67.1 69.0 71.2 74.0 77.0 | 80.0 83.0 Seed | 4.1 3.8 4.3 4.1 3.7 | 4.0 4.0 Brewers' use | 15.4 15.1 14.3 14.5 15.6 | 15.4 15.4 Residual 4/ | 8.8 8.8 11.6 8.2 8.3 | 3.4 5.5 Domestic use | 95.5 96.7 101.4 100.7 104.6 | 102.8 107.9 | | Exports | 66.4 77.0 75.2 98.9 83.0 | 76.4 83.0 Rough | 6.3 5.2 3.5 17.7 10.6 | 12.6 15.0 Milled 5/ | 60.1 71.8 71.8 81.2 72.4 | 63.8 68.0 Total use | 161.9 173.7 176.7 199.6 187.6 | 179.2 190.9 | | Ending | | stocks | 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.3 25.0 | 27.1 26.2 CCC stocks | 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 Free stocks | 27.0 39.3 25.8 31.2 25.0 | 27.1 26.2 | | | Percent | | | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 16.9 22.7 14.6 15.7 13.3 | 15.1 13.7 | | | $/cwt | $9.25 Average farm | | to price 6/ | $7.58 $5.89 $7.98 $6.78 $9.15 | $9.90 $10.25 | | | Percent | Average | | milling rate | 70.5 70.0 74.0 74.1 71.4 | 72.0 72.0 ============================================================ N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Marketing year weighted-average price received by farmers. Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1995/96 to present =========================================================== | 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 | --------------------- ------------------- ------------------- Month | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ========================================================= | August | 9.94 9,177 9.99 10,520 7.64 9,935 September | 9.85 12,204 9.95 13,478 7.95 12,010 October | 10.10 11,196 9.75 11,988 8.77 12,493 November | 9.69 1/ 10,859 1/ 9.36 11,768 9.12 12,951 December | 9.63 12,758 9.36 12,503 January | 9.87 15,927 9.33 13,130 February | 10.10 12,086 9.10 11,898 March | 10.20 10,133 9.31 14,690 April | 10.20 9,902 9.34 13,562 May | 10.10 7,969 9.69 11,538 June | 9.88 7,092 9.74 9,500 July | 10.00 9,421 9.68 10,142 | Average 2/ | 9.89 10,859 9.90 11,087 9.15 12,029 | Total 3/ | 9.25 to 43,859 133,042 144,352 | 10.25 4/ ========================================================= 1/ Preliminary midmonth price estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1997/98 is for August to current month. 3/ Total volume marketed; 1997/98 is August to date only. 4/ USDA price range. Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1995/96 to present 1/ ======================================================== | 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 Month | -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ======================================================== | | $/cwt | August | 8.28 7.17 7.30 7.69 7.84 7.96 7.93 6.22 6.06 September | 7.72 7.31 7.44 7.56 7.81 7.93 8.02 6.30 6.13 October | 7.84 7.50 7.64 7.39 7.73 7.85 8.81 6.67 6.51 November | 8.03 7.55 7.68 7.09 7.58 7.70 8.47 6.82 6.63 December | 8.17 7.63 7.77 2/ 7.15 7.63 7.74 8.17 7.16 6.95 January | 7.41 7.65 7.78 8.11 7.19 7.13 February | 7.47 7.57 7.75 7.90 7.49 7.67 March | 7.18 7.49 7.67 7.97 7.38 7.55 April | 6.91 7.16 7.33 7.68 7.25 7.42 May | 8.11 7.14 7.29 7.38 7.17 7.35 June | 8.23 7.04 7.18 7.64 7.42 7.60 July | 8.30 6.88 7.01 7.79 7.82 8.01 | Average 3/| 8.01 7.43 7.57 2/ 7.54 7.46 7.60 7.99 7.07 7.08 ======================================================== 1/ Loan rate basis (rough); the repayment rate was the lower of the loan level for the crop or the higher of the prevailing world market price or the minimum repayment level. For the 1989 through 1995 crops, the minimum loan repayment levels were 70 percent of the loan level. The minimum loan repayment level has been eliminated for 1996-crop loans, and loans are repayable at the lower of the loan level or the prevailing world price. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1992/93 to present 1/ ======================================================= | 1997/98| 1996/97 | Country |--------|--------1996/97| 1995/96 1994/95 1993/94 1992/93 or | as of | as of | region |12/04/97|12/04/96 Final | Final Final Final Final ======================================================= 1,000 metric tons European Union | 173 | 221 342 | 417 474 362 391 Other Western Europe | 14 | 10 16 | 19 22 17 22 Turkey | 18 | 115 202 | 187 259 67 191 Eastern Europe | 0 | 4 4 | 34 58 10 46 Former Soviet Union | 0 | 17 23 | 37 18 4 15 | | | Japan | 97 | 126 212 | 192 2 568 0 | | | OTHER ASIA AND | | | THE MIDDLE EAST | 109 | 197 315 | 344 525 347 438 Iran | 0 | 0 0 | 72 191 121 130 Iraq | 30 | 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 Saudi Arabia | 41 | 104 168 | 130 153 157 205 Jordan | 21 | 36 22 | 56 62 1 33 Syria | 5 | 11 25 | 1 28 0 0 | | | AFRICA | 95 | 126 205 | 324 257 257 315 Republic of | | | South Africa | 35 | 61 114 | 147 113 90 111 Cote d'Ivoire | 30 | 27 31 | 82 57 67 92 Ghana | 28 | 19 33 | 48 7 0 11 | | | WESTERN HEMISPHERE | 701 | 484 934 | 1,010 1,585 513 663 Canada | 71 | 74 109 | 107 127 91 98 Colombia | 10 | 0 34 | 28 0 0 0 Costa Rica | 62 | 46 55 | 110 65 46 18 Dominican Republic | 41 | 0 19 | 3 40 0 0 El Salvador | 56 | 17 22 | 30 37 5 6 Guatemala | 45 | 0 32 | 31 23 5 15 Haiti | 45 | 41 86 | 121 148 43 117 Honduras | 35 | 26 52 | 30 29 1 2 Jamaica | 13 | 25 28 | 80 74 63 30 Mexico | 144 | 137 309 | 318 327 177 249 Nicaragua | 10 | 31 68 | 29 39 0 22 Panama | 61 | 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 Peru | 34 | 39 46 | 36 77 3 34 | | | Total | 1,240 | 1,299 2,254 | 2,564 3,201 2,149 2,075 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | | Census Bureau 2/ |2,771 4/| 2,500 4/ | 2,790 3,723 2,521 2,673 Difference 3/ | 344 5/| | 226 522 372 598 ========================================================== Note: The "U.S. Export Sales" reports sales and shipments in product weight. The milled equivalent total may vary significantly from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales," FAS, USDA. Columns labeled "as of" represent combined exports plus sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census Bureau rice export total (reported on a product-weight basis) is the official export total. 3/ The "U.S. Export Sales" report does not include U.S. Government exports under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 4/ USDA forecast, milled equivalent basis. 5/ The average difference between exports reported by the U.S. Census Bureau and exports reported in "U.S. Export Sales" for 1992/93-1995/96. Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present ======================================================== | U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Month | --------------------------- ------------------------------------- or | Long Medium marketing | grain 3/ grain 4/ Parboiled 100% 5% par- 15% 35% A.1 6/ year 1/ | Houston Calif. Houston grade B boiled broken broken special ======================================================== | $/metric ton 7/ | 1986/87 | 240 282 311 190 171 173 154 122 1987/88 | 422 366 485 273 261 256 236 204 1988/89 | 323 361 386 292 276 275 256 232 1989/90 | 342 352 400 292 259 262 220 172 1990/91 | 331 347 400 296 270 261 214 165 1991/92 | 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 | 322 383 348 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 | 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 1994/95 | 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 | Aug '95 | 386 364 419 346 343 327 310 288 Sep '95 | 386 380 424 368 354 346 322 285 Oct '95 | 430 432 485 393 373 372 340 293 Nov '95 | 441 441 463 354 342 334 315 296 Dec '95 | 419 496 463 347 337 326 307 278 Jan '96 | 410 507 454 372 355 350 321 271 Feb '96 | 402 474 449 377 357 348 307 256 Mar '96 | 397 463 441 373 350 344 301 260 Apr '96 | 406 459 454 342 316 310 272 245 May '96 | 430 441 471 347 318 312 272 244 Jun '96 | 430 441 474 360 339 322 275 240 Jul '96 | 430 441 474 370 347 335 281 229 | 1995/96 | 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 | Aug '96 | 446 441 491 346 330 314 265 213 Sep '96 | 452 441 478 341 331 311 264 216 Oct '96 | 449 433 474 324 330 293 250 208 Nov '96 | 438 430 463 325 327 293 248 206 Dec '96 | 430 430 463 330 325 298 253 205 Jan '97 | 435 424 474 367 334 332 277 218 Feb '97 | 455 402 485 359 321 320 270 226 Mar '97 | 463 397 485 341 315 302 261 231 Apr '97 | 463 397 485 319 301 285 252 220 May '97 | 463 397 485 335 315 300 257 215 Jun '97 | 463 397 485 335 324 299 255 221 Jul '97 | 446 397 485 332 327 296 256 215 | 1996/97 | 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 | Aug '97 | 430 397 474 296 314 265 237 209 Sep '97 | 419 397 463 280 304 254 231 203 Oct '97 | 419 397 463 275 280 249 224 192 Nov '97 | 419 397 463 261 261 237 213 181 Dec '97 8/| 419 397 463 272 269 254 233 203 | 1997/98 8/| 421 397 465 277 285 252 227 198 ========================================================= 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ 100 percent broken. 7/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 8/ Preliminary. Reported Thai prices for December are for the week ending December 1 only. U.S. prices are through December 8. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1991/92 to present 1/ ================================================== | | 1996/97 1997/98 Item | 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96| 2/ 3/ =================================================== | | LONG-GRAIN | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.113 2.408 2.102 2.410 2.335 | 1.980 Harvested | 2.023 2.372 2.028 2.379 2.312 | 1.964 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 5,395 5,397 5,082 5,609 5,265 | 5,777 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.4 | 10.1 14.1 Production | 109.1 128.0 103.1 133.4 121.7 | 113.5 125.8 Imports | 4.7 5.4 5.9 6.3 6.3 | 8.7 9.0 Total supply | 125.4 146.4 130.6 154.8 142.4 | 132.3 148.9 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 61.4 59.0 59.9 60.1 67.4 | 63.3 68.8 Exports | 51.0 65.8 55.6 80.3 64.9 | 55.0 65.0 Total use | 112.4 124.8 115.5 140.4 132.3 | 118.3 133.8 | | Ending stocks | 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.4 10.1 | 14.1 15.1 | | | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 11.6 17.3 13.0 10.3 7.6 | 11.9 11.3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN | | Million acres | | | Planted | 0.771 0.768 0.818 0.943 0.786 | .839 Harvested | 0.758 0.760 0.805 0.937 0.781 | .835 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 6,627 6,795 6,590 6,866 6,676 | 6,929 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 | 14.3 12.1 Production | 50.2 51.6 53.0 64.3 52.1 | 57.9 54.1 Imports | 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.2 | 1.2 1.0 Total supply | 62.4 64.8 71.2 75.0 69.5 | 73.1 67.2 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 34.1 37.7 41.6 40.6 37.2 | 39.6 39.1 Exports | 15.4 11.2 19.6 18.6 18.1 | 21.4 18.0 Total use | 49.5 48.9 61.2 59.2 55.3 | 61.0 57.1 | | Ending stocks | 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 14.3 | 12.1 10.1 | | | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 26.1 32.4 16.3 26.7 25.9 | 19.8 17.7 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | Million hundredweight | Ending stocks | | difference 1/ | 1.4 2.0 0.7 1.1 0.6 | 0.9 1.0 ======================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the stock total for all types of rice in table 1. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. END_OF_FILE