RICE OUTLOOK January 14, 1998 January 1998, RCS-0198 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued six times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only, no printed copies are available. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o The 1997 U.S. rice crop is estimated at 178.9 million hundredweight, down slightly from last month's projection, but more than 4 percent larger than the 1996 crop. o U.S. ending stocks for 1997/98 are projected at 28.1 million cwt, up more than 7 percent from last month's projection, and about 4 percent above a year earlier. o U.S. exports are projected at 79 million cwt, down 4 million from last month's projection but still more than 3 percent above a year earlier. o World rice trade is projected at almost 19.9 million tons, up 3 percent from last month's projection and nearly 6 percent larger than in 1997. o Indonesia's 1998 imports are projected at 2.25 million tons, up 750,000 from last month's projection and nearly three times 1997 imports. U.S. FARM PRICES REMAIN FIRM Farm prices for long grain rice remain firm, largely due to strong U.S. rough rice exports during the first 5 months of the 1997/98 market year. Through January 1, combined U.S. exports and outstanding sales of rough rice totaled nearly 12 million cwt, up from 6.3 million a year earlier. Major buyers since the start of the market year have been Mexico, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Ecuador, Honduras, Guatemala, Panama, and Nicaragua. Virtually all of the rough rice sales to these countries were long grain rice. Prices for California medium grain are currently quoted at $8.63 to $8.88 per cwt, up slightly from a month earlier due to recent purchases by Japan and Turkey. However, medium grain prices remain more than a dollar less per cwt than prices for southern long grain rice. A record California crop and weaker export demand for medium grain this year account for the price difference. U.S. farm level prices have averaged about $10 per cwt since January 1997. Last month, USDA estimated December's midmonth price at $10.10 and raised November's to $9.71 from a preliminary $9.69. For the season-average price to equal the midpoint of the projected range, monthly prices must average $9.61 through July. The 1997/98 (August-July) season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected to be $9.25 to $10.25 per cwt, with the midpoint just 15 cents below 1996/97's $9.90. The 1996/97 price was up over 8 percent from 1995/96, and was the highest season-average farm price since 1980/81. Along with solid export demand, continued strong domestic food use will limit any price decrease associated with larger supplies and the drop in international trading prices associated with the devaluation of the Thai currency. LOWER YIELD AND AREA BEHIND REVISED U.S. CROP PROJECTION The 1997 U.S. rough rice crop is pegged at 178.9 million hundredweight (cwt), slightly below last month's forecast but more than 4 percent larger than the 1996 crop--a result of greater planted area. The 1997 yield is estimated at 5,896 pounds per acre, down slightly from last month's forecast and almost 4 percent below the 1996 record of 6,121 pounds. The 1997 yield is the third highest on record. Planted area is projected at 3.06 million acres, slightly below last month's projection, but more than 8 percent larger than 1996. A breakdown of crop by grain type indicates a long grain crop of 121.6 million cwt, down more than 4 million cwt from last month's projection but 7 percent higher than the 1996 crop. The average long grain yield is estimated at 5,380 pounds per acre, nearly 7 percent below the 1996 record of 5,777 pounds. Adverse weather during much of planting season in the South--where nearly all long grain rice is grown--account for most of the drop. Combined medium and short grain production, projected at 57.2 million cwt, is up more than 3 million cwt from last month's projection but down 1 percent from 1996. All of the medium grain decline is in the South. The average medium/short grain yield is estimated at a record 7,406 pounds per acre--up 7 percent from 1996--the result of solid yields in California. California accounts for the bulk of the month-to-month yield decrease, with yields lowered 200 pounds to 8,300. While California yields are still almost 11 percent higher than 1996, they remain below the record 8,500 achieved in 1992 and 1994. Yields in all southern States are below 1996. Louisiana is projected to achieve an average yield of 4,630 pounds per acre, down 170 pounds from last month's projection and 5 percent below the 1996 record. Texas, which experienced extremely late plantings, is projected to achieve a yield of 5,500 pounds, down 100 pounds from last month's projection and 11 percent below last year's record. Missouri--the smallest rice producing State--has a projected yield of 5,300 pounds, down 100 pounds from last month's projection and 250 pounds below its 1996 record. In contrast, the average yield in Mississippi is raised 300 pounds to 5,800 pounds, 200 pounds below the 1996 record. Yields in Arkansas were revised up 50 pounds from the November survey to 5,650. Although this is 8 percent below the 1996 record, it is the third highest on record. All of the downward revisions in planted area were in the South. Mississippi's rice plantings were revised down 30,000 acres to 240,000 and Louisiana's lowered 20,000 to 550,000 acres. In contrast, plantings in Arkansas were revised upward 30,000 to 1.38 million acres and plantings in Missouri were revised upward 14,000 acres to 114,000. Texas plantings remained unchanged at 260,000 acres. California rice plantings were revised downward 3,000 acres to 512,000. The year-to-year increase in crop size results from increased planted area. The January Crop Production Annual Summary report indicated total planted area up 237,000 acres--more than 8 percent--from 1996. Long grain was reported up 301,000 acres--or 15 percent--from 1996 and medium grain down 67,000 acres or 8 percent. All of the drop in medium grain area was in the South. California medium grain area was reported up slightly from 1996. In the South, long grain plantings rose 297,000 acres while medium grain area dropped 70,000. Total short grain plantings were reported at 18,000 acres, up 3,000 from 1996. Short grain rice is grown only in California and Arkansas, with California accounting for the bulk. All States except Texas and Louisiana are projected to produce larger crops than in 1996. The California crop is pegged at a record 42.3 million cwt, down 3 percent from last month's projection but up over 13 percent from 1996. Arkansas's crop is projected at 77.4 million cwt, up more than 3 percent from last month's forecast but still below the State's 1994 record of 80.9 million cwt. Mississippi's crop is projected at 13.8 million cwt, down more than 6 percent from last month's projection but almost 11 percent above 1996. Missouri's crop is projected at 5.8 million cwt, up almost 13 percent from last month's projection and 16 percent larger than 1996. Louisiana's crop is projected at 25.4 million cwt, more than 6 percent below last month's projection and more than 2 percent smaller than the 1996 crop. The Texas crop is projected at 14.2 million cwt, down 2 percent from last month's projection--a result of the lowered yield--and 23 percent below last year. This is the smallest Texas crop since 1983. Total U.S. supplies for 1997/98 are projected at 215 million cwt, down 1 percent from last month's projection but more than 4 percent above a year earlier. August 1 stocks remain projected at 27.1 million cwt, up almost 2.1 million from a year earlier. Imports were revised down 1 million cwt to 9 million based on the pace during the first quarter of the market year. Imports for 1997/98 are down nearly 1 million cwt from the 1996/97 record. Thailand provides nearly three-fourths of U.S. rice imports, with most of this fragrant rice. Making up most of the remainder are India and Pakistan, which ship basmati rice to the United States, and smaller quantities of long grain rice from Vietnam. Italy and Argentina ship small amounts of rice to the United States as well. NASS reported December 1 total rice stocks at 131.7 million cwt, up 4 percent from a year earlier. U.S. EXPORT PROJECTION LOWERED FROM LAST MONTH U.S. rice exports in 1997/98 are projected at 79 million cwt, down 4 million cwt from last month's projection, based primarily on the pace of shipments during the first quarter of the market year. Exports are still projected to be more than 3 percent higher than in 1996/97. U.S. rice exports and sales commitments were slightly behind last year's pace through January 1, according to the U.S. Export Sales report of January 8, 1998. Primary destinations for U.S. rice have been the EU, Mexico, Japan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Panama, Peru, Ghana, South Africa, Guatemala, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Cote d'Ivoire, and Jordan. Greater supplies and lower prices for milled rice are responsible for the expected year-to-year expansion in U.S. exports. All of the projected increase is for long grain exports which are projected at 61 million cwt, up 11 percent from 1996/97. In contrast, combined medium and short grain exports remain projected at 18 million cwt, down 16 percent. Little buying interest beyond Japan's minimum access purchases and a few other regular buyers such as Turkey, plus a much smaller southern medium grain crop are behind the smaller export forecast this year. In September, South Korea purchased its entire 1997/98 WTO minimum access imports from China and Thailand, diminishing U.S. medium grain export prospects for 1997/98. Rough rice exports--with Latin America accounting for the bulk of shipments--are projected to increase nearly 20 percent from 1996/97 to 15 million cwt and account for 19 percent of total U.S. rice exports. Many Latin American countries prefer to import rough rice instead of milled rice to better utilize domestic mill capacity. They typically apply a lower tariff to rough rice imports than milled rice. The United States is one of very few rice exporting countries to allow rough rice exports. In fact, no major Asian rice exporter ships any significant quantities of rough rice. Weather-related difficulties this year have adversely affected crops in several Latin American countries, resulting in greater imports. Total U.S. rice use is projected at 186.9 million cwt in 1997/98, down 2 percent from last month's forecast--the result of the lowered export forecast--but almost 7 percent higher than a year earlier. The expansion is due to a projected 3 million cwt increase in food use to a record 83 million cwt, plus the 3 percent increase in exports. Brewers' use remains projected at 15.4 million cwt, unchanged from 1996/97. Ending stocks for 1997/98 are projected to be 28.1 million cwt, up more than 7 percent from last month's forecast--a result of the lowered export projection--and nearly 4 percent larger than a year earlier. A larger crop and greater beginning stocks are more than offset by higher total use. The stocks-to-use ratio for 1997/98 is projected to be 15 percent, up from 13.7 percent projected last month and nearly unchanged from a year earlier. Long grain domestic use remains projected at 68.8 million cwt, up almost 9 percent from 1996/97. Combined medium and short grain domestic use remains projected at 39.1 million cwt, down about 1 percent from last year. Long grain ending stocks are projected at 13.9 million cwt, down 8 percent from last month's projection--a result of the lowered crop and import projections--and slightly smaller than a year earlier. The long grain stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 10.7 percent, down 5 percent from last month's projection and 10 percent smaller than a year earlier. A stocks-to-use ratio of this level will likely prevent any significant price decrease for long grain rice. For combined medium grain and short grain, ending stocks are projected at 13.2 million cwt, up more than 3 million cwt from last month's forecast--a result of the larger crop projection--and more than 9 percent larger than 1996/97 ending stocks. The medium/short grain stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 23.2 percent, up from 17.7 percent last month and 17 percent above a year earlier. A stocks-to-use ratio at this level will likely prevent any significant upward price movement for medium grain rice. INTERNATIONAL PRICES POST MODEST RISE International prices for most grades of rice have posted modest increases since the second half of December, largely due to big purchases by Indonesia and the Philippines for delivery in late 1997 and early 1998. Quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) averaged $301 per ton for the week ending January 12, up from $281 a week earlier. Prices averaged about $275 in December. For November, prices averaged just $261 per ton, the lowest monthly average since the summer of 1994. Virtually all of this price drop was due to the steady decrease in the value of the Thai currency against the U.S. dollar. International prices began to slide in early July when Thailand allowed its currency to float (leading to substantial depreciation vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar) and export activity contracted. The Thai currency generally depreciated during the rest of the summer and fall, causing rice prices to drop most of that time. The $261 average offer quote for high-quality Thai rice in November was down from $275 in October, $280 in September, and $296 in August. The Thai price had averaged almost $335 per ton from May through July. The Thai currency continued to fall in December and in early January, but strong import demand from Indonesia and the Philippines allowed prices to rise modestly. Like Thai prices, Vietnam's rice prices have risen $10-$15 per ton since late November, depending on the quality. Vietnam's prices are currently $5-$15 below Thai prices for most grades. Vietnam typically sells its rice at a substantial discount to Thai rice, often $50-$80 per ton below the Thai price for similar grades of rice. Exportable supplies are extremely scarce in Vietnam and will remain so until supplies from the next harvest become available in February and March. Prices for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice--No. 2, 4-percent brokens, offer quotes f.o.b. Houston--have remained at $419 per ton since mid-August after declining from $441 per ton in mid-July. Prices had been steady at $463 since mid-February. A slowdown in the pace of U.S. milled rice exports in August and September, as well as an already high premium to Thai grade B price explain why there is no current upward pressure on U.S. long grain milled prices. The increasing share of U.S. exports accounted for by rough rice partly explains the relative strength of farm prices since the beginning of 1997 despite the drop in milled rice prices. The estimated U.S. price premium over Thai rice is currently about $125 per ton, down from $147 in December and $158 in November. The premium widened in August and September as the Thai price began to drop. Several years ago, U.S. rice had been viewed as competitive in world markets with a premium of $30-$50 over Thai rice. However, in recent years this level has likely risen due to some shifting of the U.S. export market to the Western Hemisphere--where Thailand competes in few markets. The premium may also have increased due to rough rice's growing share of U.S. exports and limited world supplies of high-quality long grain rice. Prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4-percent brokens, f.o.b.) have remained at $397 per ton since mid-February after dropping from $419 in early 1997. The decline was primarily due to an 11-percent increase in the 1996 U.S. medium grain crop from a year earlier, plus a record Australian 1997/98 harvest. Preventing any price increase in 1997/98 has been a record California crop and very little buying interest beyond Japan's minimum access purchases and sales to a few regular buyers such as Turkey. Japan has thus far purchased about 74 percent of its 1997/98 (April-March) total regular minimum access imports of 531,000 metric tons (milled basis), of which the U.S. has supplied about 41 percent. The completion of these purchases by Japan will likely provide some price support. RECORD GLOBAL PRODUCTION PROJECTED FOR 1997/98 For 1997/98 world rice production is projected to be a record 382.8 million tons (milled basis), virtually unchanged from last month's forecast but over 4 million tons larger than the 1996/97 crop. World consumption is projected to be a record 380 million tons, down almost 1 million tons from last month's projection but up more than 4 million tons from 1996/97. With production exceeding consumption by 2.7 million tons, ending stocks are projected to rise 5 percent to 55.6 million tons, up slightly from last month's projection. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 14.6 percent, up from 14.1 percent a year earlier, but still low enough to make prices sensitive to any crop shortfall in a major consuming or producing country. While the projection for total 1997/98 rice production is virtually unchanged from last month, several significant offsetting country-specific revisions were made. China's crop was revised upward 1.5 million tons to a record 138.5 million based on higher yields. Argentina's crop was revised up 50,000 tons to a record 780,000 tons, the result of higher yields. Similarly, Spain's crop projection was revised up 30,000 tons to 560,000 due to higher yields and a very small increase in area. Finally, Peru's crop projection was raised 10,000 tons due to larger area. In contrast, Indonesia's 1997/98 crop projection was reduced 1.3 million tons to 32 million due to reduced area--a result of late planting--and lower yields. Indonesia's production difficulties are the result of this year's El Nino which has caused severe dryness over most of the island since late summer, thereby delaying planting of the 1997/98 crop. Similarly, Ecuador's milled output was lowered 125,000 tons to 300,000 due to lower yields and area resulting from El Nino. Finally, Tanzania's crop was reduced 40,000 tons to 360,000 due to drought-reduced yields; area actually increased. Record production is the result of larger projected crops in several key producing countries. China's record crop is up more than 1.9 million tons from 1996. India is projected to produce a record crop of 81.5 million tons, up almost a million tons. Vietnam's 18 million ton crop will tie its 1996 record. Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Pakistan are projected to produce record crops as well. GLOBAL RICE TRADE IS PROJECTED TO EXPAND IN 1998 Global rice trade is projected at almost 19.9 million tons (milled) in 1998, up 650,000 tons from last month's projection and more than 6 percent higher than 1997's revised trade. This year's trade would be the third highest after 1995 and 1996. The month-to-month increase in exports is largely due to a 500,000-ton increase in China's exports to 1.5 million tons, a result of its record crop. In addition, Thailand's export projection was revised up 250,000 tons to 5.5 million based on expected strong demand in Southeast Asia. In contrast, U.S. exports were lowered 100,000 tons to 2.7 million to match revised market year projections. On the import side, Indonesia's import projection was raised 750,000 tons to 2.25 million, a result of the lowered crop forecast and continued heavy consumption. In contrast, China's imports were lowered 250,000 tons to 750,000, a result of the upward revision in crop size. Several major importers are projected to increase rice trade in 1998, with many taking 1 million tons or more. Indonesia's 2.25 million tons is the largest projection, more than triple 1997's imports of 750,000 tons. Iran is ranked second, with imports projected at 1.25 million tons, up 250,000 tons from 1997, a result of rising consumption outstripping production growth. The Philippines is projected to import 1 million tons, up 250,000 from 1997 as production in 1997/98 is not projected to increase. Brazil is projected to import 1 million tons, the same as in 1997, a result of production lagging consumption gains. Several other countries are expected to import more rice in 1998. Senegal's imports are projected up 100,000 tons from 1997 to 500,000 in response to a smaller crop, declining stocks, and a drop in imports in 1997. Peru is expected to post a 150,000-ton increase, to 350,000, following a drop in imports in 1997 and a weak 1996/97 crop. A smaller 1997/98 crop is behind a 50,000-ton increase in the EU's imports to 700,000. Japan's and South Korea's imports are expected to rise as the WTO-mandated minimum access import requirements increase. On the export side, Thailand's 5.5-million-ton export projection is primarily due to a larger crop. Vietnam's exports are projected at 3.5 million tons--tied with 1997's record--a result of record production and strong Southeast Asian demand. India's exports are projected to remain at 1997's level of 1.75 million tons. Pakistan's exports are projected to rise 50,000 tons to 1.7 million. U.S. exports are projected to increase 400,000 tons to 2.7 million, also the result of a larger crop. In contrast, Australia's exports are expected to decline 50,000 tons in 1998, due to a more than 15-percent decline in production from 1996/97. Trade for 1997 is projected at 18.8 million tons, up 525,000 tons from last month's projection, but down almost 6 percent from 1996. On the export side, Thailand's exports were raised 375,000 tons to almost 5.3 based on final shipment data. Similarly, Vietnam's projected exports were raised 250,000 tons to 3.5 million based final shipment data. U.S. exports were lowered to 2.3 million tons due to a slower than expected pace in recent months. Imports by several countries in Africa were revised upward based on current shipment data. South Africa's and Ghana's imports were each raised 50,000 tons to 550,000 and 150,000 tons, respectively. Mozambique's imports were raised 35,000 tons to 75,000. Three countries' imports were raised 25,000 tons; Tanzania's to 75,000; Yemen's to 125,000, and Mauritania's to 125,000. Finally, Trinidad's imports were raised 5,000 tons to 35,000. In contrast, Ecuador's imports were lowered 30,000 tons to 50,000 tons as market year imports were adjusted to be consistent with calendar year data. Finally, China's imports were revised down 100,000 tons to 500,000 based on import data through September. Reports in 1998 ERS is publishing only 6 issues of this report in 1998. We will continue to publish the Rice Yearbook, which will be released on September 1, 1998. This will include both sector data and analysis of critical issues and topics. Check the ERS web site (http://econ.ag.gov) for the full schedule and for other publications relating to rice. If you have questions or comments about this change in our schedule, please contact Joy Harwood, Chief, Field Crops Branch (202-694-5310; jharwood@econ.ag.gov) or Fred Surls, Outlook Program Coordinator (202 694-5320; fsurls@econ.ag.gov). Note: Printed copies of the 1997 Rice Yearbook will be available in early January. To order, call 1-800-999-6779. The ERS Auto Fax number has been changed to (202) 694-5700. ****************************************************************************** * INFORMATION CONTACT AT THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE: * * Nathan Childs *(202) 694-5292 * The next Rice Outlook will be available on April 10, 1998. * ****************************************************************************** Note: Detailed 1997/98 foreign supply and use forecasts are published on December 15 in the Foreign Agricultural Service's Grain: World Markets and Trade. Tables: Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1991/92 to present Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1995/96 to present Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1995/96 to present Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1992/93 to present Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1991/92 to present Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1991/92 to present 1/ ======================================================================== | | 1996/97 1997/98 Item | 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 | 2/ 3/ ======================================================================== | | TOTAL RICE | Percent | | | | | ARP | 5 0 5 0 5 | N/A N/A | | Area | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.884 3.176 2.920 3.353 3.121 | 2.819 3.056 Harvested | 2.781 3.132 2.833 3.316 3.093 | 2.799 3.034 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 5,731 5,736 5,510 5,964 5,621 | 6,121 5,896 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 24.6 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.3 | 25.0 27.1 Production | 159.4 179.7 156.1 197.8 173.9 | 171.3 178.9 Imports | 5.3 6.1 6.9 7.3 7.4 | 10.0 9.0 Total supply | 189.3 213.2 202.5 230.9 212.6 | 206.4 215.0 | | Food | 67.1 69.0 71.2 74.0 77.0 | 80.0 83.0 Seed | 4.1 3.8 4.3 4.1 3.7 | 4.0 4.0 Brewers' use | 15.4 15.1 14.3 14.5 15.6 | 15.4 15.4 Residual 4/ | 8.8 8.8 11.6 8.2 8.3 | 3.4 5.5 Domestic use | 95.5 96.7 101.4 100.7 104.6 | 102.8 107.9 | | Exports | 66.4 77.0 75.2 98.9 83.0 | 76.4 79.0 Rough | 6.3 5.2 3.5 17.7 10.6 | 12.6 15.0 Milled 5/ | 60.1 71.8 71.8 81.2 72.4 | 63.8 64.0 Total use | 161.9 173.7 176.7 199.6 187.6 | 179.2 186.9 | | Ending | | stocks | 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.3 25.0 | 27.1 28.1 CCC stocks | 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 Free stocks | 27.0 39.3 25.8 31.2 25.0 | 27.1 28.1 | | | Percent | | | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 16.9 22.7 14.6 15.7 13.3 | 15.1 15.0 | | | $/cwt | $9.25 Average farm | | to price 6/ | $7.58 $5.89 $7.98 $6.78 $9.15 | $9.90 $10.25 | | | Percent | Average | | milling rate | 70.5 70.0 74.0 74.1 71.6 | 70.3 72.0 ======================================================================== N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Marketing year weighted average price received by farmers. Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1995/96 to present ======================================================================== | 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 | --------------------- ------------------- ------------------- Month | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ======================================================================== | August | 9.94 9,177 9.99 10,520 7.64 9,935 September | 9.85 12,204 9.95 13,478 7.95 12,010 October | 10.10 11,196 9.75 11,988 8.77 12,493 November | 9.71 11,191 9.36 11,768 9.12 12,951 December | 10.10 1/ 10,942 1/ 9.63 12,758 9.36 12,503 January | 9.87 15,927 9.33 13,130 February | 10.10 12,086 9.10 11,898 March | 10.20 10,133 9.31 14,690 April | 10.20 9,902 9.34 13,562 May | 10.10 7,969 9.69 11,538 June | 9.88 7,092 9.74 9,500 July | 10.00 9,421 9.68 10,142 | Average 2/ | 9.94 10,942 9.90 11,087 9.15 12,029 | Total 3/ | 9.25 to 54,710 133,042 144,352 | 10.25 4/ ======================================================================== 1/ Preliminary midmonth price estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1997/98 is for August to current month. 3/ Total volume marketed; 1997/98 is August to date only. 4/ USDA price range. Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1995/96 to present 1/ ======================================================================= | 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 Month | -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ======================================================================= | | $/cwt | August | 8.28 7.17 7.30 7.69 7.84 7.96 7.93 6.22 6.06 September | 7.72 7.31 7.44 7.56 7.81 7.93 8.02 6.30 6.13 October | 7.84 7.50 7.64 7.39 7.73 7.85 8.81 6.67 6.51 November | 8.03 7.55 7.68 7.09 7.58 7.70 8.47 6.82 6.63 December | 8.17 7.63 7.77 7.15 7.63 7.74 8.17 7.16 6.95 January | 8.32 7.70 7.85 2/ 7.41 7.65 7.78 8.11 7.19 7.13 February | 7.47 7.57 7.75 7.90 7.49 7.67 March | 7.18 7.49 7.67 7.97 7.38 7.55 April | 6.91 7.16 7.33 7.68 7.25 7.42 May | 8.11 7.14 7.29 7.38 7.17 7.35 June | 8.23 7.04 7.18 7.64 7.42 7.60 July | 8.30 6.88 7.01 7.79 7.82 8.01 | Average 3/| 8.06 7.48 7.61 2/ 7.54 7.46 7.60 7.99 7.07 7.08 ======================================================================= 1/ Loan rate basis (rough); the repayment rate was the lower of the loan level for the crop or the higher of the prevailing world market price or the minimum repayment level. For the 1989 through 1995 crops, the minimum loan repayment levels were 70 percent of the loan level. The minimum loan repayment level has been eliminated for 1996-crop loans, and loans are repayable at the lower of the loan level or the prevailing world price. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1992/93 to present 1/ ======================================================================== | 1997/98| 1996/97 | Country |--------|-------- 1996/97| 1995/96 1994/95 1993/94 1992/93 or | as of | as of | region | 1/01/98| 1/01/97 Final | Final Final Final Final ======================================================================== 1,000 metric tons European Union | 224 | 239 342 | 417 474 362 391 Other Western Europe | 15 | 10 16 | 19 22 17 22 Turkey | 33 | 132 202 | 187 259 67 191 Eastern Europe | 0 | 4 4 | 34 58 10 46 Former Soviet Union | 1 | 18 23 | 37 18 4 15 | | | Japan | 176 | 177 212 | 192 2 568 0 | | | OTHER ASIA AND | | | THE MIDDLE EAST | 98 | 202 315 | 344 525 347 438 Iran | 0 | 0 0 | 72 191 121 130 Iraq | 0 | 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 Saudi Arabia | 56 | 107 168 | 130 153 157 205 Jordan | 21 | 36 22 | 56 62 1 33 Syria | 5 | 11 25 | 1 28 0 0 | | | AFRICA | 99 | 132 205 | 324 257 257 315 Republic of | | | South Africa | 36 | 65 114 | 147 113 90 111 Cote d'Ivoire | 30 | 27 31 | 82 57 67 92 Ghana | 29 | 19 33 | 48 7 0 11 | | | WESTERN HEMISPHERE | 794 | 557 934 | 1,010 1,585 513 663 Canada | 84 | 79 109 | 107 127 91 98 Colombia | 0 | 0 34 | 28 0 0 0 Costa Rica | 82 | 61 55 | 110 65 46 18 Dominican Republic | 50 | 0 19 | 3 40 0 0 El Salvador | 55 | 17 22 | 30 37 5 6 Guatemala | 45 | 9 32 | 31 23 5 15 Haiti | 53 | 46 86 | 121 148 43 117 Honduras | 37 | 29 52 | 30 29 1 2 Jamaica | 13 | 26 28 | 80 74 63 30 Mexico | 181 | 157 309 | 318 327 177 249 Nicaragua | 10 | 37 68 | 29 39 0 22 Panama | 61 | 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 Peru | 43 | 40 46 | 36 77 3 34 | | | Total | 1,468 | 1,479 2,254 | 2,564 3,201 2,149 2,075 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | | Census Bureau 2/ |2,580 4/| 2,500 4/ | 2,790 3,723 2,521 2,673 Difference 3/ | 344 5/| | 226 522 372 598 ========================================================================Note: The "U.S. Export Sales" reports sales and shipments in product weight. The milled equivalent total may vary significantly from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales," FAS, USDA. Columns labeled "as of" represent combined exports plus sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census Bureau rice export total (reported on a product-weight basis) is the official export total. 3/ The "U.S. Export Sales" report does not include U.S. Government exports under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 4/ USDA forecast, milled equivalent basis. 5/ The average difference between exports reported by the U.S. Census Bureau and exports reported in "U.S. Export Sales" for 1992/93-1995/96. Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present ======================================================================= | U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Month | --------------------------- ------------------------------------- or | Long Medium marketing | grain 3/ grain 4/ Parboiled 100% 5% par- 15% 35% A.1 6/ year 1/ | Houston Calif. Houston grade B boiled broken broken special ======================================================================= | | $/metric ton 7/ | 1986/87 | 240 282 311 190 171 173 154 122 1987/88 | 422 366 485 273 261 256 236 204 1988/89 | 323 361 386 292 276 275 256 232 1989/90 | 342 352 400 292 259 262 220 172 1990/91 | 331 347 400 296 270 261 214 165 1991/92 | 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 | 322 383 348 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 | 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 1994/95 | 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 | Aug '95 | 386 364 419 346 343 327 310 288 Sep '95 | 386 380 424 368 354 346 322 285 Oct '95 | 430 432 485 393 373 372 340 293 Nov '95 | 441 441 463 354 342 334 315 296 Dec '95 | 419 496 463 347 337 326 307 278 Jan '96 | 410 507 454 372 355 350 321 271 Feb '96 | 402 474 449 377 357 348 307 256 Mar '96 | 397 463 441 373 350 344 301 260 Apr '96 | 406 459 454 342 316 310 272 245 May '96 | 430 441 471 347 318 312 272 244 Jun '96 | 430 441 474 360 339 322 275 240 Jul '96 | 430 441 474 370 347 335 281 229 | 1995/96 | 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 | Aug '96 | 446 441 491 346 330 314 265 213 Sep '96 | 452 441 478 341 331 311 264 216 Oct '96 | 449 433 474 324 330 293 250 208 Nov '96 | 438 430 463 325 327 293 248 206 Dec '96 | 430 430 463 330 325 298 253 205 Jan '97 | 435 424 474 367 334 332 277 218 Feb '97 | 455 402 485 359 321 320 270 226 Mar '97 | 463 397 485 341 315 302 261 231 Apr '97 | 463 397 485 319 301 285 252 220 May '97 | 463 397 485 335 315 300 257 215 Jun '97 | 463 397 485 335 324 299 255 221 Jul '97 | 446 397 485 332 327 296 256 215 | 1996/97 | 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 | Aug '97 | 430 397 474 296 314 265 237 209 Sep '97 | 419 397 463 280 304 254 231 203 Oct '97 | 419 397 463 275 280 249 224 192 Nov '97 | 419 397 463 261 261 237 213 181 Dec '97 | 419 397 463 274 269 255 233 203 Jan '98 8/| 419 397 463 291 274 270 235 184 | 1997/98 8/| 421 397 465 279 284 255 229 195 ======================================================================== 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ 100 percent broken. 7/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 8/ Preliminary. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1991/92 to present 1/ ======================================================================== | | 1996/97 1997/98 Item | 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96| 2/ 3/ ======================================================================== | | LONG-GRAIN | Million acres | | | Planted | 2.113 2.408 2.102 2.410 2.335 | 1.980 2.279 Harvested | 2.023 2.372 2.028 2.379 2.312 | 1.964 2.261 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 5,395 5,397 5,082 5,609 5,265 | 5,777 5,380 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 11.5 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.4 | 10.1 14.1 Production | 109.1 128.0 103.1 133.4 121.7 | 113.5 121.6 Imports | 4.7 5.4 5.9 6.3 6.3 | 8.7 8.0 Total supply | 125.4 146.4 130.6 154.8 142.4 | 132.3 143.7 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 61.4 59.0 59.9 60.1 67.4 | 63.3 68.8 Exports | 51.0 65.8 55.6 80.3 64.9 | 55.0 61.0 Total use | 112.4 124.8 115.5 140.4 132.3 | 118.3 129.8 | | Ending stocks | 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.4 10.1 | 14.1 13.9 | | | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 11.6 17.3 13.0 10.3 7.6 | 11.9 10.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN | | Million acres | | | Planted | 0.771 0.768 0.818 0.943 0.786 | .839 .777 Harvested | 0.758 0.760 0.805 0.937 0.781 | .835 .773 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 6,627 6,795 6,590 6,866 6,676 | 6,929 7,406 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 11.7 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 | 14.3 12.1 Production | 50.2 51.6 53.0 64.3 52.1 | 57.9 57.2 Imports | 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.2 | 1.2 1.0 Total supply | 62.4 64.8 71.2 75.0 69.5 | 73.1 70.3 | | Domestic | | use 4/ | 34.1 37.7 41.6 40.6 37.2 | 39.6 39.1 Exports | 15.4 11.2 19.6 18.6 18.1 | 21.4 18.0 Total use | 49.5 48.9 61.2 59.2 55.3 | 61.0 57.1 | | Ending stocks | 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 14.3 | 12.1 13.2 | | | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 26.1 32.4 16.3 26.7 25.9 | 19.8 23.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- | Million hundredweight | Ending stocks | | difference 1/ | 1.4 2.0 0.7 1.1 0.6 | 1.0 1.0 ======================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the stock total for all types of rice in table 1. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. END_OF_FILE