RICE OUTLOOK May 13, 1998 May 1998, RCS-0398 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board --------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICE OUTLOOK is issued six times a year by the Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC 20036-5831. Electronic release only, no printed copies are available. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- MONTHLY HIGHLIGHTS: o The 1998 U.S. rice crop is projected at 183 million cwt (rough), up 2 percent from last year--a result of slightly larger area and a higher yield. o U.S. rice exports for 1998/99 are projected at 83 million cwt, down 1 million from the revised 1997/98 forecast. Rough rice exports are projected to remain strong at 23 million cwt, slightly below the record 25 million projected for 1997/98. o The 1998/99 U.S. stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 13.2 percent, up from 12.8 percent a year earlier, but still the second smallest since 1980/81. Ending stocks are projected at 25.3 million cwt, up more than 3 percent. o The 1998/99 season-average price range is projected at $9.20 to $10.20 per cwt, compared with the 1997/98 range of $9.60 to $9.80. o World rice production is projected at a record 387 million tons in 1998/99, up nearly 2 percent from 1997/98. The 1997/98 projection was revised down more than 1 million tons largely due to weather problems in South America. o World trade for 1998 is projected at a record 22 million tons--up 2 percent from last month and almost 17 percent larger than 1997. The revision is largely due to greater import projections for Brazil and the Philippines. RECORD ROUGH RICE EXPORTS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT U.S. LONG GRAIN FARM PRICES Farm prices for long grain rice remain firm, largely due to continued strong U.S. rough rice exports and expectations of further sales. Through April 30, combined U.S. exports and outstanding sales of rough rice totaled almost 21.9 million cwt, more than double the level of a year earlier and already exceeding any previous market year total. Mexico has been the largest single buyer since the start of the 1997/98 market year, with purchases of 317,400 tons. By April 30, Colombia had purchased 191,900 tons and Ecuador 148,200. Other buyers have been Panama, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala, and Nicaragua. Almost all of these sales have been southern long grain. Price quotes for long grain rice are currently over $10.40 per cwt in Texas and only slightly lower in the Delta. In contrast, farm prices for California medium grain remain about $1.50 less per cwt than quotes for southern long grain and have shown no significant strength since the start of the current market year. A record 1997 California crop and weaker export demand for medium grain in general this year are largely responsible. While typically a little below prices for long grain, southern medium grain prices have been well above California prices throughout the 1997/98 market year. U.S. farm level prices for all rice have averaged $9.70 per cwt since August 1997. Last month, USDA estimated April's midmonth price at $9.38 per cwt and lowered March's to $9.55 from a preliminary $9.68. The lower reported prices for March and April are likely the result of a larger quantity of medium grain rice-- which typically sells below long grain prices--being marketed during both months. Industry sources quoted long grain prices at over $10 per cwt in Texas and only slightly lower in the Delta during March and April. The 1997/98 (August-July) season-average farm price (SAFP) is projected to be $9.60 to $9.80 per cwt, with the midpoint 26 cents below 1996/97's SAFP of $9.96. For the 1997/98 season-average price to equal the midpoint of the projected range, monthly prices must average $9.73 through July. The 1998/99 SAFP is projected at $9.20 to $10.20 per cwt. Despite larger supplies, strong demand for exports--especially for rough rice-- and continued growth in domestic use are expected to maintain firm farm prices in 1998/99. U.S. EXPORT PROJECTION RAISED FROM LAST MONTH U.S. rice exports in 1997/98 are projected at 84 million cwt, up 1 million cwt from last month's projection and over 7 percent higher than in 1996/97. The month-to-month upward revision is due to the record pace of U.S. rough rice exports through April and expectations of further rough rice sales. For the 1997/98 market year, rough rice exports are projected at a record 25 million cwt, up 2 million from last month's forecast and nearly double rough rice exports in 1996/97. Rough rice accounts for all of the projected year-to-year growth in U.S. exports. Milled rice exports are projected at 59 million cwt, down 1 million from last month's forecast and more than 10 percent below a year earlier. Total U.S. rice exports and sales commitments were 21 percent ahead of a year earlier's pace through April 30, according to the May 7, 1998 U.S. Export Sales report. Primary destinations for U.S. rice have been the EU, Mexico, Japan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Panama, Peru, Ghana, South Africa, Guatemala, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Cote d'Ivoire, and Jordan. In contrast to the record pace of rough rice, milled rice exports and sales were 3 percent behind a year earlier through April. Combined medium and short grain account for the slow pace of milled rice exports. As of April 30, medium and short grain milled exports and sales were 22 percent behind a year earlier. Greater supplies and very strong Latin American demand for rough rice are behind the year-to-year export expansion. All of the projected increase is for long grain exports which are projected at 65 million cwt, up 1 million from last month's projection and more than 15 percent higher than in 1996/97. In contrast, combined medium and short grain exports remain projected at 19 million cwt, down more than 13 percent. Little buying interest beyond Japan's minimum access purchases and sales to a few other regular buyers such as Turkey and Jordan, plus a much smaller southern medium grain crop are behind the weaker export forecast. Rough rice exports--with Latin America accounting for nearly all of the shipments--are projected to account for a record 30 percent of total U.S. rice exports in 1997/98. Several factors account for the expanded exports. First, weather-related difficulties have adversely affected crops in several Latin American countries, leading to much greater imports. Some countries that do not typically import U.S. rice--Colombia, Ecuador, and Panama--have made sizable purchases this year due to production shortfalls. And other countries that regularly import U.S. rice--Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Costa Rica--are purchasing much larger amounts due to production difficulties. Second, many Latin American countries prefer to import rough rice instead of milled rice to better utilize domestic milling capacity. They typically apply a lower tariff to rough rice imports than milled rice. The United States is one of very few rice exporting countries to allow rough rice exports. In fact, no major Asian exporter ships any significant quantity of rough rice. U.S. rough rice exports to Mexico--the largest market and a regular importer--already exceed the year earlier level. STOCKS AND STOCKS-TO-USE RATIO LOWEST SINCE 1980/81 Total U.S. supplies for 1997/98 are projected at 215.4 million cwt, up 250,000 from last month's forecast--a result of larger projected imports--and 4 percent above a year earlier, a result of a larger crop and greater beginning inventories. Imports are forecast at 9.25 million cwt, up 250,000 from last month's forecast--all long grain--based on data through February. However, imports are down almost 750,000 cwt from the 1996/97 record. Ending stocks are projected at 24.5 million cwt, up slightly from last month's projection--a result of the larger imports--but 10 percent below a year earlier and the lowest since 1980/81. Total U.S. rice use is projected at 190.9 million cwt in 1997/98, up almost 7 percent from a year earlier. The expansion is due to a projected 2-million-cwt increase in food use to a record 82 million cwt--down 1 million cwt from last month, plus the 7-percent increase in exports. Although food use continues to expand, the rate of growth is below levels achieved in the 1980's and during the first half of the 1990's. While food use expanded nearly 4 percent a year during the previous decade, annual growth is currently projected at around 2.5 percent. Slower population growth, competition from other starches, and higher rice prices have all contributed to slower growth in food use. Brewers' use remains projected at 15.4 million cwt, unchanged from 1996/97. The stocks-to-use ratio for 1997/98 is projected to be 12.8 percent, virtually unchanged from last month but below 15.2 percent a year earlier. This is the lowest stocks-to-use ratio since 1980/81. A ratio this low will likely prevent any significant price decrease the remainder of the market year. Long grain domestic use is projected at 67.8 million cwt, down 1 million from last month but up 11 percent from 1996/97. Combined medium and short grain domestic use remains projected at 39.1 million cwt, slightly above 1996/97. Long grain ending stocks are projected at 11.2 million cwt, up slightly from last month's forecast but 21 percent below a year earlier. The 1997/98 long grain stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 8.5 percent, up slightly from last month's projection but 30 percent smaller than a year earlier. For combined medium grain and short grain, ending stocks are projected at 12.3 million cwt, unchanged from last month's forecast and slightly larger than 1996/97 ending stocks. The medium/short grain stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 21.2 percent, almost 7 percent above a year earlier. 1998 CROP PROJECTED AT 183 MILLION CWT The first projections for 1998/99 peg the U.S. rice crop at 183 million cwt, up 2 percent from a year earlier and the second largest ever produced. A small area increase and a higher yield are behind the projection. The 1998 yield is projected at 5,980 pounds per acre, up more than 1 percent from the 1997 yield. Imports are projected to rise 500,000 cwt to 9.75 million. While carryin is projected to drop 10 percent to 24.5 million cwt, the larger crop and higher imports will increase total supplies 1 percent to 217.2 million cwt. Total use is projected to rise 1 million cwt in 1998/99 to 191.9 million. A 1-million-cwt drop in exports will be more than offset by a 2-million-cwt increase in food use to a record 84 million cwt. Brewers use is projected to remain at 15.4 million cwt. No long term expansion is projected. Total exports are projected at 83 million cwt, just 1 million below 1997/98. Rough rice exports are projected at 23 million cwt--down just slightly from the 1997/98 record--accounting for 28 percent of total exports. Two factors account for the strong rough rice export projection. First, Brazil is expected to import large amounts of rice in the second half of 1998. The U.S. would likely be a major supplier, given production problems in Argentina and Uruguay, who typically supply most of Brazil's imports. Brazil will likely import at least 200,000 tons from outside of Latin America in 1998. The U.S. is the only major supplier of rough rice and available supplies of milled rice are tight across Asia. Second, regular buyers of U.S. rough rice, such as Mexico and several countries in Central America, are expected to continue to purchase U.S. rough rice. Ending stocks are projected at 25.3 million cwt, up 2 percent from this season. The larger stocks are responsible for the increase in the stocks-to-use ratio to 13.2 percent. However, this would still be the second smallest since 1980/81 and would prevent any significant price drop associated with the larger supplies. The 1998 crop projection is based on farmers' planting intentions, average abandonment, and a projected yield. The yield projection is calculated by combining a 1993-97 average yield--weighted by State and grain type--with a trend yield based on 1990-1997 average yields. The March 31 Prospective Plantings report was the first information available on the 1998 crop and indicated farmers intended to plant 3.085 million acres in 1998, up almost 1 percent from 1997. Long grain plantings are projected to rise less than 1 percent to 2.3 million acres. Combined medium/short grain acres are projected to rise more than 1 percent to 789,000 acres. The acreage projections in the report are from a survey of farmers' planting intentions as of March 1. Actual plantings may differ. On June 30, USDA will publish updated planted acreage estimates. On August 12, USDA will report rice production based on yields from farm operator surveys. As of May 10, planting nationwide was 71 percent complete, slightly behind a year earlier but well ahead of the 5-year average of 65 percent. Nearly all of the Texas and Louisiana rice crops were planted and planting in Arkansas and Mississippi was ahead of each state's 5-year average. In contrast to the South, heavy rains have thus far delayed planting about 3 weeks in California. As of May 10, just 3 percent of the California crop had been planted, compared with 48 percent a year earlier and a 5-year average of 29 percent. Most California rice is typically planted by May 20, although decent yields can still be achieved it rice is planted by June 1. Early planting bodes well for yields--less disease, insect, and weed problems. The percent of the crop emerged is well ahead of average across the South. The 1998/99 long grain crop is projected at 124.5 million cwt, up more than 2 percent from 1997/98. However, total supplies are projected at 144.5 million cwt, marginally above a year earlier as the larger crop and greater imports are nearly offset by a smaller carryin. Total long grain use is projected to rise less than 1 percent, as domestic use rises 2 percent to 69 million cwt and exports drop slightly. Ending stocks are projected to drop 2 percent to 11 million cwt, yielding a stocks-to-use ratio of 8.2 percent, slightly below 1997/98. The combined medium/short grain crop is projected to increase 2 percent to 58.5 million cwt. With little change in carryin and imports, total supply is projected to rise 2 percent to 71.8 million cwt. Domestic use is projected up slightly and exports are expected to drop marginally, making total medium/short grain use nearly unchanged. Ending stocks are projected to rise 9 percent to 13.4 million cwt, yielding a stocks-to-use ratio of 22.9 percent, up slightly from 1997/98. TIGHT SUPPLIES, STRONG DEMAND PUSH INTERNATIONAL RICE PRICES HIGHER International prices for most grades of rice have risen since late March, due to lack of available supplies in Vietnam and Pakistan for any additional sales, large purchases by Indonesia and the Philippines, and some strengthening of the Thai baht. Vietnam is not making any additional sales until after May, and Pakistan will not be able to make additional sales until its October/November harvest. Quotes for high-quality Thai rice (100 percent, grade B, f.o.b. Bangkok) were reported at $331 per ton for the week ending May 4, unchanged from a week earlier, but up $10 from mid-April. Prices averaged $326 in April and $305 in March. Prices started rising slowly in late December when Indonesia and the Philippines began purchasing large quantities of rice in response to production difficulties. Since December, Indonesia has purchased about 3 million tons of rice, mostly from Thailand and Vietnam. An additional 500,000 tons will be provided by Japan as food aid. The Philippines has purchased about 1.5 million tons thus far in 1998. International prices began to slide in July when Thailand allowed its currency to float (leading to substantial depreciation vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar). The Thai currency generally depreciated during the summer and fall, causing rice prices to drop most of that time. Although the Thai currency continued to fall in December and early January, strong import demand from Indonesia and the Philippines allowed prices to rise modestly. Like Thai prices, Vietnam's rice prices have risen--$20 to $40 per ton depending on the quality--since March as supplies for additional sales have become virtually nonexistent. Vietnam is not currently quoting prices due to lack of available supplies. Quoted prices for Vietnamese 5-percent brokens were $295 per ton in early April and Vietnam has not made additional sales since. Indonesia, the Philippines, and Africa have been the primary markets. Prices for similar type and quality U.S. long grain rice--No. 2, 4-percent brokens, offer quotes f.o.b. Houston--have remained at $408 per ton since dropping from $419 in early March. Prices had remained steady at $419 since mid-August. The high premium over Thai price for comparable grades of rice prevent any upward pressure on U.S. long grain milled prices. The increasing share of U.S. exports accounted for by rough rice partly explains the relative strength of farm prices since the beginning of 1997 despite the steady drop in milled rice prices. While high by historical standards, the U.S. price premium over Thai rice has narrowed since December. The premium is currently $77 per ton, down from $82 in April and $105 in March. The premium has narrowed as the Thai price has strengthened and--since March--as the U.S. price has dropped. The premium had been as high as $158 in November when the Thai price reached its recent bottom. Several years ago, U.S. rice had been viewed as competitive in world markets with a premium of $30-$50 over Thai rice. However, in recent years this level has likely risen due to some shifting of U.S. exports to the Western Hemisphere--where Thailand competes in few markets. Prices for high-quality California medium grain rice (No. 1, 4- percent brokens, 100 pound bags, f.o.b. Sacramento) have been reported at $386 per ton since mid-March when they dropped from $397. The recent decline was primarily due to a record 1997 California harvest and very little export interest beyond Japan's minimum access purchases and sales to a few regular buyers such as Turkey and Jordan. Japan has agreed to purchase 607,000 tons (milled basis) in 1998/99 (April-March) under the WTO minimum access agreement. RECORD GLOBAL PRODUCTION PROJECTED FOR 1998/99 For 1998/99, world rice production is projected at a record 387 million tons (milled basis), up almost 2 percent from the revised 1997/98 crop. World consumption is projected to be a record 386.8 million tons, up almost 2 percent. With consumption barely below production, ending stocks are projected to rise slightly to almost 51 million tons. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 13.2 percent, down slightly from a year earlier and low enough to make prices sensitive to any crop shortfall in a major consuming or producing country. The 1997/98 world rice crop is projected at 380.3 million tons, down more than 1 million from last month's projection and barely above a year earlier. The month-to-month revision is due to production difficulties in Latin America and--to a lessor degree-- Asia. Consumption in 1997/98 is projected at just over 380 million tons, up slightly from last month's forecast and nearly 1.5 million tons greater than a year earlier. The revised production and use estimates--plus a smaller carryin largely attributed to revisions in India's stocks--led to a 6 percent reduction in projected ending stocks from a month earlier to 50.7 million tons, marginally above a year earlier. This yields a 1997/98 stocks-to-use ratio of 13.3 percent, down slightly from a year earlier. Latin America accounts for the bulk of the month-to-month downward revision in world production. Brazil's crop was revised down 500,000 tons to 6 million (milled) because of flood damage in Rio Grande do Sul and--to a lessor degree--drought in the Northeast. Both yields and area have been cut. The Argentine crop has been reduced 185,000 tons to 585,000 due to severe flooding which has cut area and yield. Uruguay's crop has been reduced 80,000 tons to 680,000 also due to severe flooding which has lowered area and yield. Paraguay has experienced flooding as well. Its crop has been lowered 25,000 tons to 90,000 tons as both area and yield are reduced. In contrast to flooding, drought has caused Guyana's crop to be reduced 46,000 tons to 250,000 as both area and yield have been lowered. A drought in 1997 that cut area has lowered 1997/98 rice production in the Dominican Republic 30,000 tons to 255,000. Severe dry weather led to downward crop revisions in Asia. Vietnam's crop was reduced 200,000 tons to 17.8 million, with both the Winter-Spring and Summer-Autumn crops reduced due to lower yields. The Philippines' crop was lowered 200,000 tons as well--to 6.8 million--mostly due to lower area. The wet season crop--harvested last fall--accounts for most of the drop. Finally, lower yields resulted in an 80,000-ton reduction in Malaysia's crop to 1.2 million tons. In contrast, the 1997/98 Thai crop was raised 200,000 tons to a record 14.5 million, with most of the increase due to expanded second crop plantings. Venezuela's crop was raised 65,000 tons to 480,000 due to higher yields, even though area was reduced. Finally, long-term revisions based on FAO data have led to an increase in Surinam's rice crop to 110,000 tons--all due to higher yields--even though the drought has reduced the crop 30,000 tons from a year earlier. Although production is projected to barely increase in 1997/98, several countries are projected to produce record crops. China's 1997 record 138.5-million-ton crop (milled basis) is up more than 1.9 million tons from a year earlier. India is projected to produce 82 million tons of rice, up 800,000 tons from 1996/97. The Thai crop and Pakistan's 4.36-million-ton crop are records as well. In sharp contrast, several major producers are experiencing El Nino-related difficulties, accounting for much of this year's record import prospects. Indonesia's 1997/98 crop is projected at 30.9 million tons, down more than 3 percent from a year earlier. Similarly, the Philippines' 1997/98 crop is down more than 6 percent from a year earlier. Bangladesh's projected crop of 18.2 million tons is more than 3 percent below a year earlier. Brazil's revised 6-million ton crop is down more than 9 percent from 1996/97. Smaller crops are projected for several exporters in 1997/98 as well. Vietnam's crop is projected down 200,000 tons from a year earlier. Guyana's crop is down 46,000 tons due to the drought. The severe flooding in the cone of South America has reduced Argentina's crop 25 percent and Uruguay's 16 percent from 1996/97. These two countries together typically account for most of Brazil's imports. GLOBAL 1998 RICE TRADE PROJECTED AT ALMOST 22 MILLION TONS Global rice trade is projected at a record 21.95 million tons (milled) in 1998, up 2 percent from last month's projection and 17 percent higher than the 1997 revised trade. The month-to-month increase in imports is largely due to a 200,000-ton increase in Brazil's imports to 1.2 million tons--a result of the reduced production forecast--and a 250,000-ton increase in imports by the Philippines to 1.5 million tons based on recent purchases. On the export side, Japan's announcement of 500,000 tons of food aid to Indonesia accounts for the bulk of the month-to-month revision. In addition, India's 1998 exports were raised 200,000 tons to 2.2 million based on greater sales to Africa and the Middle East. U.S. exports were raised 200,000 tons to 3 million based on greater market year exports. In contrast, exports from several Latin American countries were reduced due to weather problems. Argentina's exports are lowered 150,000 tons to 400,000, Uruguay's reduced 75,000 tons to 525,000, and Guyana's decreased 50,000 tons to 150,000. These substantial South American export reductions mean that Brazil will have to source at least 200,000 tons of rice from outside the region. Several major importers are projected to increase rice trade in 1998, with many taking 1 million tons or more. Indonesia's 4 million tons is a world record for imports and five times its 1997 imports. The Philippines is ranked second, with 1.5 million tons, up 684,000 from 1997, a result of drought. Brazil's projected imports of 1.2 million tons are up from 1997's revised level of 850,000 tons. Iran's 1-million-ton import projection is unchanged from 1997. Several other countries are expected to import more rice in 1998. Bangladesh is projected to import 500,000 tons in 1998--up from just 45,000 in 1997--due to a smaller 1997/98 crop. The European Union is projected to increase imports 50,000 tons to 700,000. Japan's and South Korea's imports are expected to rise as the WTO-mandated minimum access import requirements increase. Colombia's imports are projected to increase 58,000 tons, as its production has not expanded. On the export side, Thailand's exports are projected at 5.8 million tons, up 10 percent from a year earlier due to a larger crop and extremely large Southeast Asian demand. Vietnam's record 3.6 million-ton export projection is up 10 percent from 1997, a result of strong Southeast Asian demand. India's 2.2 million ton export projection is up 12 percent from a year earlier. Pakistan's exports are projected to rise slightly to 2 million tons. U.S. exports are projected to increase over 700,000 tons, the result of a larger crop. In contrast, Uruguay's exports are projected down 115,000 tons, Argentina's down 100,000 tons, and Guyana's down 25,000 tons; all due to smaller crops in 1997/98. Australia's exports are expected to decline 50,000 tons to 650,00 in 1998, due to a projected 12-percent projected decline in production from 1996/97. This report is available on the Internet at the ERS Home Page at: http://www.econ.ag.gov Note: To order printed copies of the 1997 Rice Yearbook call 1-800-999-6779. *************************************************************** * INFORMATION CONTACT AT THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE: * * Nathan Childs (202) 694-5292 * * The next Rice Outlook will be available on July 13, 1998. * *************************************************************** Note: Detailed 1997/98 foreign supply and use forecasts are published on May 14 in the Foreign Agricultural Service's Grain: World Markets and Trade. Tables: Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1992/93 to present Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, 1995/96 to present Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1995/96 to present Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1992/93 to present Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1992/93 to present Table 1- U.S. rice supply and use, 1992/93 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | 1997/98 1998/99 Item | 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== | | TOTAL RICE | Percent | | | ARP | 0 5 0 5 N/A N/A | N/A | | Area | Million acres | | | Planted | 3.176 2.920 3.353 3.121 2.819 3.056 | 3.085 Harvested | 3.132 2.833 3.316 3.093 2.799 3.034 | 3.060 | | | Pounds per harvested acre | | | Yield | 5,736 5,510 5,964 5,621 6,121 5,896 | 5,980 | | | Million hundredweight | Beginning | | stocks | 27.4 39.4 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 | 24.5 Production | 179.7 156.1 197.8 173.9 171.3 178.9 | 183.0 Imports | 6.1 6.9 7.3 7.4 10.0 9.3 | 9.8 Total supply | 213.2 202.5 230.9 212.6 206.3 215.4 | 217.2 | | Food | 69.0 71.2 74.0 77.0 80.0 82.0 | 84.0 Seed | 3.8 4.3 4.1 3.7 4.0 4.0 | 4.0 Brewers' use | 15.1 14.3 14.5 15.6 15.4 15.4 | 15.4 Residual 4/ | 8.8 11.7 8.2 8.3 1.3 5.5 | 5.5 Domestic use | 96.7 101.5 100.7 104.6 100.7 106.9 | 108.9 | | | | Exports | 77.0 75.3 98.9 83.0 78.4 84.0 | 83.0 Rough | 5.2 3.5 17.7 10.6 12.6 25.0 | 23.0 Milled 5/ | 71.8 71.8 81.2 72.4 65.9 59.0 | 60.0 Total use | 173.7 176.7 199.6 187.6 179.1 190.9 | 191.9 | | Ending | | stocks | 39.4 25.8 31.3 25.0 27.2 24.5 | 25.3 CCC stocks | 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 Free stocks | 39.3 25.8 31.2 25.0 27.2 24.5 | 25.3 | | | Percent | Stocks-to- | | use ratio | 22.7 14.6 15.7 13.3 15.2 12.8 | 13.2 | | | $/cwt $9.60 | $9.20 Average farm | to | to price 6/ | $5.89 $7.98 $6.78 $9.15 $9.96 $9.80 |$10.20 | | | Percent | Average | | milling rate | 70.0 74.0 74.1 71.6 70.3 72.0 | 72.0 ============================================================================= N/A = Not applicable under current farm legislation. 1/ Marketing year (August 1 to July 31); rough equivalent of rough and milled rice. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Residual: unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. 5/ Rough equivalent. 6/ Marketing year weighted average price received by farmers. Table 2- U.S. monthly average farm prices and marketings, rough equivalent, 1995/96 to present ============================================================================== | 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 | --------------------- ------------------- ------------------- Month | $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt $/cwt 1,000 cwt ============================================================================== | August | 9.94 9,177 10.10 10,520 7.77 10,149 September | 9.85 12,204 10.00 13,478 8.01 11,743 October | 10.00 11,925 9.66 11,988 8.84 12,343 November | 9.71 11,191 9.41 11,768 9.21 12,941 December | 9.67 12,540 9.82 12,758 9.45 13,506 January | 9.52 13,416 9.95 15,927 9.36 13,405 February | 9.66 10,679 10.10 12,086 9.19 12,235 March | 9.55 10,474 10.20 10,133 9.20 14,690 April | 9.38 /1 11,451 1/ 10.30 9,902 9.35 13,279 May | 10.20 7,969 9.73 11,702 June | 9.90 7,092 9.77 10,275 July | 10.10 9,421 9.81 10,782 | Average 2/ | 9.70 11,451 9.96 11,087 9.15 12,254 | Total 3/ | 9.60 to 103,057 133,042 147,050 | 9.80 4/ ==============================================================================1/ Preliminary midmonth price estimate. 2/ Price is marketing year weighted average; 1997/98 is for August to current month. 3/ Total volume marketed; 1997/98 is August to date only. 4/ USDA price range. Table 3- USDA calculated world market rice prices, 1995/96 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | 1997/98 1996/97 1995/96 Month | -------------------- -------------------- -------------------- | Long Medium Short Long Medium Short Long Medium Short ============================================================================== | | $/cwt | August | 8.45 7.24 7.12 7.79 7.93 7.63 7.93 6.22 6.06 September | 7.89 7.39 7.24 7.66 7.89 7.60 8.02 6.30 6.13 October | 8.00 7.59 7.44 7.48 7.82 7.52 8.81 6.67 6.51 November | 8.20 7.63 7.48 7.18 7.67 7.37 8.47 6.82 6.63 December | 8.34 7.71 7.56 7.25 7.71 7.41 8.17 7.16 6.95 January | 8.76 7.80 7.67 7.54 7.74 7.48 8.11 7.19 7.13 February | 9.41 7.88 7.72 7.72 7.67 7.53 7.90 7.49 7.67 March | 9.50 7.86 7.70 7.43 7.59 7.45 7.97 7.38 7.55 April | 9.80 7.91 7.76 7.14 7.26 7.12 7.68 7.25 7.42 May | 8.81 7.71 7.63 2/ 8.38 7.21 7.10 7.38 7.17 7.35 June | 8.51 7.11 7.00 7.64 7.42 7.60 July | 8.58 6.93 6.83 7.79 7.82 8.01 | Average 3/| 8.72 7.67 7.53 2/ 7.71 7.53 7.33 7.99 7.07 7.08 ============================================================================== 1/ Loan rate basis (rough); the repayment rate was the lower of the loan level for the crop or the higher of the prevailing world market price or the minimum repayment level. For the 1989 through 1995 crops, the minimum loan repayment levels were 70 percent of the loan level. The minimum loan repayment level has been eliminated for 1996-crop loans, and loans are repayable at the lower of the loan level or the prevailing world price. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Simple average of weekly announced world market price. Table 4- U.S. exports and sales commitments, 1992/93 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | 1997/98| 1996/97 | Country |--------|-------- 1996/97|1995/96 1994/95 1993/94 1992/93 or | as of | as of | region | 4/30/98| 4/30/97 Final | Final Final Final Final ============================================================================== 1,000 metric tons European Union | 303 | 353 342 | 417 474 362 391 Other Western Europe| 17 | 15 16 | 19 22 17 22 Turkey | 82 | 178 202 | 187 259 67 191 Eastern Europe | 0 | 4 4 | 34 58 10 46 Former Soviet Union | 2 | 22 23 | 37 18 4 15 | | | Japan | 250 | 214 212 | 192 2 568 0 | | | OTHER ASIA AND | | | THE MIDDLE EAST | 192 | 280 315 | 344 525 347 438 Iran | 0 | 0 0 | 72 191 121 130 Iraq | 0 | 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 Saudi Arabia | 119 | 155 168 | 130 153 157 205 Jordan | 41 | 56 22 | 56 62 1 33 Syria | 5 | 11 25 | 1 28 0 0 | | | AFRICA | 148 | 198 205 | 324 257 257 315 South Africa | 52 | 114 114 | 147 113 90 111 Cote d'Ivoire | 31 | 27 31 | 82 57 67 92 Ghana | 59 | 33 33 | 48 7 0 11 | | | WESTERN HEMISPHERE | 1,478 | 809 934 | 1,010 1,585 513 663 Canada | 109 | 106 109 | 107 127 91 98 Colombia | 192 | 34 34 | 28 0 0 0 Costa Rica | 101 | 28 55 | 110 65 46 18 Dominican Republic | 93 | 19 19 | 3 40 0 0 Ecuador | 151 | 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 El Salvador | 58 | 22 22 | 30 37 5 6 Guatemala | 29 | 31 32 | 31 23 5 15 Haiti | 73 | 66 86 | 121 148 43 117 Honduras | 56 | 41 52 | 30 29 1 2 Jamaica | 13 | 25 28 | 80 74 63 30 Mexico | 343 | 260 309 | 318 327 177 249 Nicaragua | 27 | 51 68 | 29 39 0 22 Panama | 88 | 0 0 | 0 0 0 0 Peru | 87 | 46 46 | 36 77 3 34 Trinidad | 21 | 21 21 | 27 34 21 34 | | | TOTAL | 2,512 | 2,075 2,254 | 2,564 3,201 2,149 2,075 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Census Bureau 2/ |2,740 4/| 2,500 4/| 2,790 3,723 2,521 2,673 Difference 3/ | 344 5/| | 226 522 372 598 ============================================================================== Note: U.S.Export Sales reports sales and shipments in product weight. The milled equivalent total may vary significantly from year to year based on the share of rough rice exports. 1/ Columns labeled "Final" represent final exports as reported by the "U.S. Export Sales," FAS, USDA. Columns labeled "as of" represent combined exports plus sales commitments. 2/ The U.S. Census Bureau rice export total (reported on a product-weight basis) is the official export total. 3/ The "U.S. Export Sales" report does not include U.S. Government exports under PL 480 Titles II and III, Section 416, and Food for Peace exports. 4/ USDA forecast, milled equivalent basis. 5/ The average difference between exports reported by the U.S. Census Bureau and exports reported in "U.S. Export Sales" for 1992/93 to 1995/96. Table 5- U.S. and Thailand f.o.b. export prices, 1986/87 to present ============================================================================== U.S. 2/ Bangkok, long grain 5/ Vietnam Month | ------------------------- ------------------------------- ------ or | Long Medium Par- market | grain 3/ grain 4/ boiled 100% 5% par- 15% 35% A.1 7/ 5% year 1/ | Houston Calif. Houston grade B boiled broken broken spec. broken ============================================================================== | $/metric ton 8/ | 1986/87 | 240 282 311 190 171 173 154 122 1987/88 | 422 366 485 273 261 256 236 204 1988/89 | 323 361 386 292 276 275 256 232 1989/90 | 342 352 400 292 259 262 220 172 1990/91 | 331 347 400 296 270 261 214 165 1991/92 | 368 384 418 287 263 258 222 184 1992/93 | 322 383 348 244 227 217 193 163 1993/94 | 439 451 470 294 244 243 209 160 1994/95 | 314 375 349 290 276 270 255 232 | Aug '95 | 386 364 419 346 343 327 310 288 Sep '95 | 386 380 424 368 354 346 322 285 Oct '95 | 430 432 485 393 373 372 340 293 Nov '95 | 441 441 463 354 342 334 315 296 Dec '95 | 419 496 463 347 337 326 307 278 Jan '96 | 410 507 454 372 355 350 321 271 Feb '96 | 402 474 449 377 357 348 307 256 Mar '96 | 397 463 441 373 350 344 301 260 Apr '96 | 406 459 454 342 316 310 272 245 May '96 | 430 441 471 347 318 312 272 244 Jun '96 | 430 441 474 360 339 322 275 240 Jul '96 | 430 441 474 370 347 335 281 229 | 1995/96 | 414 445 456 362 344 335 302 265 | Aug '96 | 446 441 491 346 330 314 265 213 Sep '96 | 452 441 478 341 331 311 264 216 Oct '96 | 449 433 474 324 330 293 250 208 Nov '96 | 438 430 463 325 327 293 248 206 Dec '96 | 430 430 463 330 325 298 253 205 Jan '97 | 435 424 474 367 334 332 277 218 Feb '97 | 455 402 485 359 321 320 270 226 Mar '97 | 463 397 485 341 315 302 261 231 Apr '97 | 463 397 485 319 301 285 252 220 May '97 | 463 397 485 335 315 300 257 215 Jun '97 | 463 397 485 335 324 299 255 221 Jul '97 | 446 397 485 332 327 296 256 215 | 1996/97 | 450 415 479 338 323 303 259 216 | Aug '97 | 430 397 474 296 314 265 237 209 253 Sep '97 | 419 397 463 280 304 254 231 203 253 Oct '97 | 419 397 463 275 280 249 224 192 237 Nov '97 | 419 397 463 261 261 237 213 181 244 Dec '97 | 419 397 463 274 269 255 233 203 270 Jan '98 | 419 397 463 299 279 278 236 186 259 Feb '98 | 419 397 463 307 290 279 235 187 255 Mar '98 | 410 392 445 305 284 278 235 193 280 Apr '98 | 408 386 441 326 296 296 249 199 295 May '98 | 408 386 441 331 302 302 254 201 N.Q. | 97/98 9/| 418 394 460 287 285 262 230 193 261 ============================================================================== N.Q. = no quote. 1/ Simple average of weekly price quotes. 2/ Lowest quote offered. 3/ Number 2, 4 percent brokens. 4/ Number 1, 4 percent brokens. 5/ Nominal price quotes collected by the U.S. Embassy, Bangkok. 6/ Price quote trade sources. 7/ 100 % broken. 8/ Bagged, f.o.b. mills. 9/ Preliminary. Note: Vietnamese quotes are from trade sources. Table 6- U.S. rice supply and use, by type, 1992/93 to present 1/ ============================================================================== | 1997/98 1998/99 Item | 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 2/ 3/ ============================================================================== | LONG-GRAIN | Million acres | Planted | 2.408 2.102 2.410 2.335 1.980 2.279 Harvested | 2.372 2.028 2.379 2.312 1.964 2.261 | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 5,397 5,082 5,609 5,265 5,777 5,380 | | Million hundredweight Beginning | stocks | 13.0 21.6 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 11.2 Production | 128.0 103.1 133.4 121.7 113.5 121.6 124.5 Imports | 5.4 5.9 6.3 6.3 8.7 8.3 8.8 Total supply | 146.4 130.6 154.8 142.4 132.3 144.0 144.5 | Domestic | use 4/ | 59.0 59.9 60.1 67.4 61.7 67.8 69.0 Exports | 65.8 55.6 80.3 64.9 56.5 65.0 64.5 Total use | 124.8 115.5 140.4 132.3 118.2 132.8 133.5 | Ending stocks | 21.6 15.1 14.4 10.1 14.1 11.2 11.0 | | Percent Stocks-to- | use ratio | 17.3 13.0 10.3 7.6 12.0 8.5 8.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN | Million acres | Planted | 0.768 0.818 0.943 0.786 .839 0.777 Harvested | 0.760 0.805 0.937 0.781 .835 0.773 | | Pounds per harvested acre | Yield | 6,795 6,590 6,866 6,676 6,929 7,406 | | Million hundredweight Beginning | stocks | 12.9 15.8 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 Production | 51.6 53.0 64.3 52.1 57.9 57.2 58.5 Imports | 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 Total supply | 64.8 71.2 75.0 69.5 73.1 70.4 71.8 | Domestic | use 4/ | 37.7 41.6 40.6 37.2 39.0 39.1 39.9 Exports | 11.2 19.6 18.6 18.1 21.9 19.0 18.5 Total use | 48.9 61.2 59.2 55.3 60.9 58.1 58.4 | Ending stocks | 15.8 10.0 15.8 14.3 12.1 12.3 13.4 | | Percent Stocks-to- | use ratio | 32.4 16.3 26.7 25.9 19.9 21.2 22.9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | Million hundredweight Ending stocks | difference 1/ | 2.0 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 ============================================================================== 1/ Stock totals by type omit brokens, screenings, and brewers. These are included in the stock total for all types of rice in table 1. 2/ Forecast. 3/ Projected. 4/ Includes residual. END_OF_FILE